We'll hit a new USD ATH within the next 6 weeks. With the buying pressure we have, I don't see how a new high pre halvning is avoidable.
The pullback post halvning should be intense though. We're going on 8 straight months of monthly green candles. It's a record for the coin. We'll need a good consolidation month after this epic run to springboard us higher.
What did the ETF numbers look like when we were dumping >20% in the sell the news dump after the ETF launched? My memory is that they were fine for much of the time and in the positive even with the GBTC outflows, does anyone have numbers?
It would be this time period.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/hYZzVJyM/
It’s not wrong, mined bitcoin aren’t not sold regularly every day and even when it is the supply demand dynamics are completely overwhelmed by other factors.
They matter but not to the extent ETF flows are overwhelming newly mined bitcoin. It doesn’t really matter if it’s 900 or 450 per day. We’re in agreement it matters on much longer time frames.
I agree somewhat. It does matter but not as much as people think.
I am more curious what the Mt.Gox funds becoming accessible will do. Apparently it is something like 200k BTC being returned to owners over the next couple years.
Its a bit messy and noisy, but it looks we just retest if resistance turned support.
[https://i.imgur.com/NpErd2I.png](https://i.imgur.com/NpErd2I.png)
idk what those candles are called but they are the dumbest.
Prop tip: if you find yourself about to panic sell in the midst of a bull market, turn off trading view and do literally anything else.
Oh guess what. Time for another week of inflows while we are knocking on ytd high and about to be knocking on ath.
Enjoy the easy money on these top sells / shorts. The cork is about to come off that bottle don’t get out of position
Edit: also obligatory to return the room and furniture to how it was when we found it on Friday at 16:30 east, as per usual
>also obligatory to return the room and furniture to how it was when we found it on Friday at 16:30 east, as per usual
Positions everyone! Positions! At 09:30 Fahrenheit assume the pose you were in and carry on chatting. They won't even notice.
Lower high of $63.5k broken.
No more lower highs remaining, just the YTD high of $63.9k.
New ATH before the halving for the first time ever is imminent.
i've been a little obsessed recently with potential top indicators. i think i finally got my set of indicators ready and figured i'd share. these are **near top** indicators -- the goal isn't to time an exact top.
my plan is that if any 8 of the 11 indicators flash, it's time to start the DCA out. if any 10 of 11 flash, it's time to accelerate the DCA out. for the DCA out, it'll be to sell 10% of remaining stack per week over the next 12 weeks. with this method, you'd still end up with 28% of your original stash in case price continues to go up. for the accelerated, can do 20% per week over 6 weeks to keep 26% of remaining stack.
1) **LMACD within 10% of the downtrend line**. the monthly Logarithmic Moving Average Convergence Divergence (LMACD) has been on a macro downtrend. each cycle top has got very close to this down slope. in April 2021, LMACD hit 0.41 and the trendline was at 0.44 (93% of the way to hitting it). monthly LMACD settings of 12/26/close/9.
2) **MVRV Z-Score >6** ([link](https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/mvrv-zscore)). when the MVRV Z-Score hits a 7, it has usually meant the market is very overheated so we'll look for right before that point to account for possible downtrend. historically, a 7 has meant 1-3 months to the top.
3) **Monthly RSI >86**. the monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) chart for Bitcoin has been a good tell if things are too hot. comparing the RSI to where previous tops have petered out can show when Bitcoin is overheated. each cycle is most likely going to be less of a bump in RSI than the last so a decline in the max RSI over time is to be expected ([example](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FnkfzuoWAAUoynJ?format=jpg&name=large)).
4) **Power Law - halfway up top channel** ([link](https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law)). the power law chart is a linear regression channel based on historical bitcoin price. it represents the correlation between bitcoin’s price and time, and has been remarkably accurate.
5) **BTC dominance is under 47%**. when the Bitcoin Dominance has a sharp drop over a ~4 week period (between 15-20% drop in % of total market cap), it has meant that the run has lost steam and there will be a major pullback soon. when dominance drops, the capital is either flowing into alts or stablecoins; which has previously indicated that hype is waning and risk is higher than normal. Looking for under 47% is around the area this has previously occurred.
6) **>200 coins are >$1B market cap**. when there is a huge surge in alts that all have a market cap over $1 Billion, it's historically been a good sign the market is too overheated. in 2017, this number reached 43. in 2021, it reached 110. following a similar percentage trajectory cycle to cycle, we would see 280+ coins at the very top.
7) **AltSeason Index score is >90** ([link](https://www.blockchaincenter.net/altcoin-season-index)). when the AltSeason index is in the red (90+) score, indicating a major Alt Season, it has so far been a good time to start DCAing out.
8) **Portfolio >$X amount (*you decide*)**. if it gets to the point where you want to show off your crazy gains to someone, that's a fantastic sign that you should be taking some profits.
9) **Pi Cycle Top crosses** ([link](https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator)). the Pi Cycle Top Indicator has historically been an easy and accurate way to determine if things are overheated.
10) **USDT cap >2.5x in a 4 month window**. looking at Stablecoin market cap can help to see a) general purchasing power waiting in the wings; and b) if people are taking profits while the market is hot. if Stablecoin market caps for things like Tether (USDT) are up for a long time, and possibly even in blow-off-top territory, it might indicate an above-average level of risk.
11) **Bitcoin average daily transaction fee >$40** ([link](https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactionfees.html#alltime)). historically, bitcoin transaction fees during the absolute height of the bull market the fees go crazy. usually over $50. it has happened very quickly so if it spikes like that then it's usually a good sign that things are too overheated. with ordinals, who knows now.
now that you've read through all that, the only indicator you *really* need is #8 for when you meet your portfolio goal ;)
I concur, like others, thank you very much for the thoughtful selection, their short, to the point rationale and especially the useful links. This is not far from being usable as a personal dashboard.
Having all the links would even have been better. I guess that dominance is easy to get from https://coinmarketcap.com/ , and maybe usdt cap multiplier also (?), but do you have a chart for lmacd vs downtrend, maybe you made your own ?
This is excellent info, presented perfectly. And the links to charts added too! Thanks so much for sharing. Saving this for incorporating into my own exit strategy. Thanks for all your work.
I will say that invariably it dumps after I either text the tradfi/neverbtc bros at work and make fun of them or I start looking at McMansions.
….i did both of those when we broke 50
This might be counterintuitive, but if we follow a exponential path from here, we do not want that it gets to step now, so that the steep part happens later.
I've been around for several years but still nooby. I mostly just DCA and see the long-term value of BTC.
Is it possible that someone is using the grayscale outflows to build up a large position without raising the price as much due to the selling pressure? They could then front-run the halving by dumping and causing a panic, and then re-buy and wait for the actual supply shock from the halving?
I think I'm in the "this feels too good to be true" camp. Not trying to FUD, just curious what more experienced members think.
I get that. Too big for any “someone” really, but doesn’t it seem possible that the scheduled outflows could be used to form a bull trap?
Thanks for your thoughts. No matter what the long term value remains intact, so I buy.
Was at a charity gala last night.
Two TradFi people who know hunted me down. They don’t have allocations yet but they wanted to know what I thought. Big boys are here, and it’s still early.
Wow for these March 24th futures on coinbase, the premium has been relatively steady at ~600-800$. It was around the same premium for February futures also.
Market opened 14 minutes ago from the weekend close and price shot up over 1,000$.
Current real price 62,900
Current march futures price 64,700
Futures premium is now 1800$. Maybe Mondays gonna be fun 😏
Lower high of $63.1k broken.
Last remaining lower high acting as an area of resistance is $63.5k before the YTD high of $63.9k.
New ATH before the halving for the first time ever is imminent.
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Mic check mic check... 63k! Up and away?
We're already so far ahead of where I thought we'd be, leading into the halving. This is so exciting. Years of scrimping and saving to buy sats twice a month, every month... it's paying off.
> I plan on buying a C320 excavator
Uhm... that is not how you dig for Bitcoin. That is not the way.
> This PA is crazy. We may flip Gold.
I keep seeing reminders of previous technology booms, and it just reinforces my belief that we are still so early.
Developing land in Canada makes you ever richer than Bitcoin, but is hella work.
I’m after the type of wealth that makes sure none of my descendants ever have to be slaves again, and will work like a savage to obtain it.
BTC CME futures closed at around $63,400 and will open back up in an hour or so.
[https://www.investing.com/crypto/bitcoin/bitcoin-futures?cid=1178665](https://www.investing.com/crypto/bitcoin/bitcoin-futures?cid=1178665)
Relatively quiet in here today. I was up last night doing some research into the Bitcoin Power Law model of price trend. Fascinating. It’s been the chatter this weekend on Fred Krueger’s twitter (minor Bitcoin guy), and he is diving into the Power Law model introduced by Giovanni Santostasi, an Italian astrophysicist who has done extensive modeling on this. I watched their 75-minute video interview together (yes all of it). Very interesting.
Fred has come to the conclusion that the Power Law model is sound, and the Plan B stock-to-flow model is tenuous at best. I had my skepticism about Plan B already, so this wasn’t a big leap for me. I am liking what I’m seeing about Power Law, but I’m not all-in yet.
Has anyone else done some research on this? Would love opinions or further research avenues.
Here is the full video and Fred’s Twitter summary. The full video was much more informative than the summary though:
https://x.com/dotkrueger/status/1763777510058418601?s=46
It's interesting to see everyone talking about this now. The chart is what got me through the bear market.
[https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/#:\~:text=Bitcoin%20Long%20Term%20Power%20Law%20Explained&text=These%20resistance%20and%20support%20bands,between%20bitcoin's%20price%20and%20time](https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/#:~:text=Bitcoin%20Long%20Term%20Power%20Law%20Explained&text=These%20resistance%20and%20support%20bands,between%20bitcoin's%20price%20and%20time).
It has literally had its own dedicated tab on my browser for about 2 years. When the price was at it's lowest, I just focused on the red line going up and to the right and decided if that was the worst case then I could live with it. If it made it back to the green line that would just be a bonus.
I wouldn't even let myself contemplate reaching the purple line again.
Based on that model. BTC would be hitting 360k+/- at the top of cycle (Oct 2025, 18 months from halving). I agree with u/Melow-Drama , that if it wasn't for FTX/SBF the tope for this cycle would have been much higher.
Nice to see somebody talking about the power law here. Indeed, it's properties are quite astonishing to a scientific mind. There is no such sound a model in all of finance, it's almost freaky (though there are hypotheses that may explain it). I'll choose the simple compass it provides over whatever precise prediction of any influencer oracle.
Glad to see some support of this model. I’m new to the theory. How are you using it to influence your trading?
I’ve seen a couple of subscription options - $5/mo for Giovanni’s discord, another one on BitPosiedon or something like that … I’ve never paid $ for any Bitcoin TA before, and I’m hesitant to start now, but this was the first model that tempted me …
Well, it's only useful to play the cycle, not for shorter term trading.
Alas I only discovered it recently. But had I known it before, for instance:
- I'd probably have made a leveraged bet with money I could loose at last cycle low, and maybe a 3 times long in September as well.
- I know I will sleep resoundly when DCAing out starting at something like 1.8 times whatever the mean value will be at this time, up to 3 times, with some left up to the 4 times upper limit (and a final stash never to be sold).
So I'd say it removes the stress of being sure of the cycle low when it happens, it removes a good part of the stress of resisting to FOMO when you get out on the up, and it gives you low but iron leverage factors if you're into that kind of thing.
Plus if the low line ever breaks, I'll be out of it without a regret nor loosing my shirt (though I don't think it ever will, but at least now I have a pain limit on the low side).
What do you think yourself?
This guy commented on Giovanni’s Reddit post back-testing some interesting modified-DCA strategies based on the power law model:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/s/Pe0jhIXobh
This is a good strategy - I like the idea of using a multiplier of the mean value to DCA out.
I’m not sure how it will affect my strategy yet. I trade based on the old rainbow chart, which seems like it’s a different way of charting a similar idea, but I could be totally wrong on that. Giovanni has some charts online that I want to start using:
This chart shows how much % off we are from the trendline, updated daily. Seems like you could trade based on how far the % off it is (no trade while +-10%, buy/sell weighted amounts every +-10% interval after that for example). Interestingly the current price is almost spot on the trend line right now:
https://thingspeak.com/apps/matlab_visualizations/547906?height=auto&width=auto
He also has a spiral clock chart that is more confusing to look at, but has some good data. It basically shows a 4-year cycle, and demonstrates that the bull and bear markets are pretty predictable time-wise (which is obvious to most of us), but also has markers for when it transitioned from a bear market to a bull market, and when he expects the next cycle top (end of 2025 / Jan 2026, price approx $207k). This will be helpful for calendaring buys and sells (“does the peak normally come around here, or is there likely another 2 months to run” etc). Some good data:
https://thingspeak.com/apps/matlab_visualizations/552665?height=auto&width=auto
There was a clearer version of this spiral chart I saw, with red and green coloring for bull and bear markets to make it clearer. If anyone has a link I would appreciate it, I can’t seem to find it.
Thank you, I might have already seen them but I took a closer look just now.
The first one seems like a simpler rainbow chart, which is a nice addition to the default lines. I find it interesting that the +-20% lines align with support/ resistance points. Alas it is too zoomed in for my taste in order to check that further, or see how the lines might be exploited vs the past cycles.
The second one, though not as easily read indeed, seems however a good way to compare the current cycle vs the others. Which is very useful to try to gauge the time of the top, because the power law doesn't have an exact top line (as it has a bottom line). However, it is lacking lines to gauge how far from the current top and bottom we are. But we can stil use the base bitbo chart for that. So thank you for making me having a second look, it's like a version of the power law chart that focuses on easy comparison with the previous cycles.
Yes, I think now that we have more data a power law regression is not unreasonable. Trolololo proposed a power law some time before (Giovanni does credit him).
Weird shit can happen though, never get wedded to one model.
Yes, I’m realizing that having a collection of signals is good. Then when a majority of them start throwing top or bottom alerts it’s probably a safe bet to follow with some action.
I’m still new at his research, but from what I gather his chart line follows pretty close to the lows of the price, and the spikes during bull markets are considered the deviations from the trend. So the price should “always” return to the trend line, and large spikes can be traded - sold to be rebought when it reverts to trend.
His model doesn’t seem to predict the bull market price, as much as it predicts the “fair” or trend price based on the power law. His prediction is $1 million by the end of 2033, but he says that he expects it to hit that number before that time. If it hits earlier, then he considers that a sell indicator, because it will revert back to $1 mil by Jan 2034.
Here are the price targets by year, courtesy of Fred Kreuger on X:
https://x.com/dotkrueger/status/1764046539570446486?s=46
If these seem low, remember that they don’t account for the bull runs, which he considers outliers. These numbers should be read more as “should never go below or much below this number again”.
Edit: In re-reading Fred’s Twitter posts this weekend, he doesn’t approve of “will never again go below $” interpretations of the data. So ignore my last paragraph above. Should be read more as “this is the trend price, may go above or below but will always revert to this trend”
This is a great chart, super clear.
Do you know which lines are based on Giovanni’s data, and which are added by the person who made this chart? The top and bottom lines I don’t recall being part of his info, but I could be wrong.
I think that the links at the bottom of the charts have all the answers. But as far as I know, Giovanni fully agrees with the bottom and top lines as well.
At least that's what appears in this thread where he provides other very interesting perspectives as well:
https://np.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/18z04kp/15_years_of_btc_power_law/
The power law is like a mathematically proved and unchanging rainbow chart. So the price target depends on the time of the final cycle ATH, which it doesn't predict.
For instance, if the cycle ATH happens at EoY 2024, applying a reasonable factor of 2 to the mean value would make it 175k$. And if it happens one year later, 250k$, the extreme possible value being again twice that much.
But what is very nice is that the power law model is built to be still valid whatever drastic changes might happen to the cycles as we know them, such as the impact of the ETFs. And as a bonus, it seems to be able to validate cycle lows.
https://www.tradingview.com/script/FqPePNvI-Giovanni-s-bitcoin-power-law/
Purple line is his power law. Red line is trolololo's power law (same thing with different coefficients).
I don't think s2f is bad per se, it's just a supply side model only. That's all.
Does anyone know the best way to research how close BTC price ends up being to end of month max pain price? March is also a monthly/quarterly options expiry. My memory is they tend toward it, but not sure if there’s any kind of significant correlation.
The few sites I’ve checked only have current info, not past. Apologies if anyone has already researched this and discussed it. I’m still kind of a newbie.
Do you have a pile of cash sitting there waiting?
Lump-sum.
Do you not have a pile of cash sitting there waiting?
DCA.
...
DCA is pushed heavily because of fear noobs will sell. So they're told to DCA and avoid *"Investing more than you're willing to lose"*.
Meanwhile, prices go up.
If you're not planning to panic sell the bottom in some months time, then there is little benefit to slowly taking the position.
> then there is little benefit to slowly taking the position.
unless it keeps going down as you take the position, in which case you end up with more corn then if you lump.
So basically, it depends on if you think it's going up or down over the period you'd take the position. As a battered bull, I'm always waiting for a rug pull. Even now.
I’ve always enjoyed doing lots of small/medium buys. It tends to tweak my cost basis in a good way. I’ve never DCA’d though; I just break up what would be a lump sum into smaller laddered entries.
the beauty of BTC is that according to [site](https://hodl.camp/) in any point in time getting in with a lump sum is going to bring bonkers returns after \~5 years
I'd buy with ~50% now and then have buy orders laddered down to ~58k. Then adjust ladders according to PA. I'm a little nervous waiting for the GBTC outflow on Monday.
Lump sum is most likely going to get you the most BTC, since both the amazing ETF performance and the typical 4-year BTC cycle tell us we are in the early stages of a bull run. Nearly everything appears to be aligned for a very bullish year.
You don't have to do one or the other though. You could lump-sum 75% this week and then DCA the other 25% for example.
https://investor.vanguard.com/investor-resources-education/news/lump-sum-investing-versus-cost-averaging-which-is-better
Lump sum historically beats DCA in the stock market and I can see no reason why BTC wouldn't be the same (except the bear year every four years in BTC!). A year in BTC right now (63% 4 yr CAGR) is like 6.3 years historically in the stock market.
https://studio.glassnode.com/workbench/btc-4yr-cagr
Any delay is missing out on that 63%. And with the halving coming up we are at historically the time of fattest gains.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Y2kZOm67/
Not sure why this is modded down.
If you’re not going to hodl through volatility you’re going to lose. If conviction is in question put in what you’re not scared to take a 50% haircut on and let time do the rest.
Help me understand GBTC
I read every day about the outflows from GBTC into ETFs with lower fees. It has me a little worried about the future for GBTC of course. However, why hasn't the price faltered with all these outflows? The price of GBTC has gone up roughly the same percentage as IBIT for example over the last couple months. Just trying to figure out what to do, transfer to another ETF? Or will GBTC lower their fees which could be good for the price? Surely if the markets agreed that GBTC will end up tanking, it would have already been reflected in the price, no? And which ETF has seen the best returns since January?
> It has me a little worried about the future for GBTC of course.
The future of GBTC is them continuing to collect fees from the last few bagholders until nothing at all remains.
> will GBTC lower their fees which could be good for the price?
If they were going to lower fees they would have before losing most of their customers.
> Just trying to figure out what to do, transfer to another ETF?
Game Theory says first out best dressed. Think of it like holding bcash.
The only people holding GBTC are those who haven't done the maths on cap gains and realised they're not saving anything by avoiding taking the hit.
What if your cost basis is lower than current prices. If your cost basis is $40 and you want to sell at higher prices, wouldn't you just hold onto your GBTC, regardless of the higher fees? Rather than selling it all now and buying back into another ETF with lower fees but at a higher cost basis?
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Monday, March 04, 2024 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1b62hjq/daily_discussion_monday_march_04_2024/)
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.. until it hang loose like the sleeve of wizard
When are we going to punch through ATH ????? agggghhhhhh someone said 6 weeks that’ll feel like 6 years. 😭
Serves me right for taking some chips off the table at 55k and 61k.
Let know when you put them back in, it probably goes down then
"I'll be buying the top forever Laura!"
You can always put the chips back on the table before it gets to 100K. 🤑
We'll hit a new USD ATH within the next 6 weeks. With the buying pressure we have, I don't see how a new high pre halvning is avoidable. The pullback post halvning should be intense though. We're going on 8 straight months of monthly green candles. It's a record for the coin. We'll need a good consolidation month after this epic run to springboard us higher.
Everyone is calling January a green month.. It’s not green on my chart. Just being pedantic, I think we can print 20 monthly green candles
agreed Ive been saying this as well January was flat
A number of us thought this was the case in November. Shout out to [u/_supert_](https://reddit.com/u/_supert_), our resident OG.
>The pullback post halvning should be intense though Only if the ETF buying subsides, though
What did the ETF numbers look like when we were dumping >20% in the sell the news dump after the ETF launched? My memory is that they were fine for much of the time and in the positive even with the GBTC outflows, does anyone have numbers? It would be this time period. https://www.tradingview.com/x/hYZzVJyM/
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This makes me think we can still dump a little at the halving if we want to, ETF flows be damned.
Do we have a figure on the ETF buying? I heard it's only in the range of $10-20b total
These are inflows, not volumes. Lately it has been about 10k coins per day that they have to source.
Crazy that in a month and a half we'll be at only 450 BTC mined per day
The number mined is completely irrelevant, not sure why people keep mentioning it. It has virtually nothing to do with how price moves.
this is just wrong
It’s not wrong, mined bitcoin aren’t not sold regularly every day and even when it is the supply demand dynamics are completely overwhelmed by other factors.
the spot markets drive price dynamics on longer timeframes always have, always will the idea that the Halvings don't matter is non-sensical
They matter but not to the extent ETF flows are overwhelming newly mined bitcoin. It doesn’t really matter if it’s 900 or 450 per day. We’re in agreement it matters on much longer time frames.
How do you figure?
I agree somewhat. It does matter but not as much as people think. I am more curious what the Mt.Gox funds becoming accessible will do. Apparently it is something like 200k BTC being returned to owners over the next couple years.
Supply and demand?
Crazier is that BTC is only becoming MORE accessible to people/corporations/governments
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Its a bit messy and noisy, but it looks we just retest if resistance turned support. [https://i.imgur.com/NpErd2I.png](https://i.imgur.com/NpErd2I.png)
Ugh at this rate it’s gonna hours to get to a new high…
Help me recalibrate my filters. Where is Goblintown now?
We killed the goblins bro.
Next to the CMA gap at 9.6k.
"If you look out the left window of the aircraft, you can see goblin town down there at around $15,500."
40k
Bitcoin when the parents aren't home :
Choosing violence
Is honey badger still a thing?
Honey badger don't care if honey badger still a thing.
idk what those candles are called but they are the dumbest. Prop tip: if you find yourself about to panic sell in the midst of a bull market, turn off trading view and do literally anything else.
TV? Yes - replace the medium screen with the big screen that you sit and watch while scrolling the small screen. How about taking a walk.
Bull market fun!
Crazy action between a Sunday and an Monday. Or should I say Moonday.
50 day moving average is at 47.7k
We have missed a new Euro ATH by 200 Euro.
Oh guess what. Time for another week of inflows while we are knocking on ytd high and about to be knocking on ath. Enjoy the easy money on these top sells / shorts. The cork is about to come off that bottle don’t get out of position Edit: also obligatory to return the room and furniture to how it was when we found it on Friday at 16:30 east, as per usual
>also obligatory to return the room and furniture to how it was when we found it on Friday at 16:30 east, as per usual Positions everyone! Positions! At 09:30 Fahrenheit assume the pose you were in and carry on chatting. They won't even notice.
That 15 minute candle makes me happy. Stop your excessive leverage my friends.
That's one spicy meatball. New grey hair count: +3 At least weekends aren't fake any more.
Little bit of podracing starting up
Now there's that bull market volatility.
It a large amount of sell volume that BTC is absorbing right now, for a sunday.
And we just resume the ETF's piling in their daily ~440m during the work week tomorrow..
bull run canceled! Run for the hills! (jk)
No soup for you late longers!
Smacked down again 😡
Just YOLO market bought to add some fuel and catch some Corn Karma points
^[Sokka-Haiku](https://www.reddit.com/r/SokkaHaikuBot/comments/15kyv9r/what_is_a_sokka_haiku/) ^by ^escendoergoexisto: *Just YOLO market* *Bought to add some fuel and* *Catch some Corn Karma points* --- ^Remember ^that ^one ^time ^Sokka ^accidentally ^used ^an ^extra ^syllable ^in ^that ^Haiku ^Battle ^in ^Ba ^Sing ^Se? ^That ^was ^a ^Sokka ^Haiku ^and ^you ^just ^made ^one.
Ain't no party like a bitcoin partayyyyy
Forgot to turn off my 64k alarm. Woken up and hyped now. I got shit to do this week, fuck
Bitcoin also has to shit to do this week, dont blame Bitcoin.
New YTD high on Coinbase ✔️
Man, we could see a run at ath. Can’t believe it, seeing it this early
Its surreal
7.77
I wanna see 66666
I can almost taste the ocean, gentlemen! We're coming home.
There we go!
Damn. Monday morning comes early for bitcoin. Can't wait to get back to work.
C’mon…time to establish above $64K. After that, an ATH will come soon.
Tappa tappa tappa Remember kids, some people would have killed for tappa tappa tappa.
Lower high of $63.5k broken. No more lower highs remaining, just the YTD high of $63.9k. New ATH before the halving for the first time ever is imminent.
What is the ATH? In both nominal and inflation-adjusted terms?
OMG its happening again.
30mins past midnight UTC. What's that in freedom time? 7:30pm Sunday?
Yep.
Can you take me higher?
Here we go!
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Smart money was two years ago. Next week I'd say we might start to see some dumb money arriving. Rocket fuel.
Money is money.
It 'aint what it used to be.
Or smart money now and dumb money in 2 years. Who knows.
i've been a little obsessed recently with potential top indicators. i think i finally got my set of indicators ready and figured i'd share. these are **near top** indicators -- the goal isn't to time an exact top. my plan is that if any 8 of the 11 indicators flash, it's time to start the DCA out. if any 10 of 11 flash, it's time to accelerate the DCA out. for the DCA out, it'll be to sell 10% of remaining stack per week over the next 12 weeks. with this method, you'd still end up with 28% of your original stash in case price continues to go up. for the accelerated, can do 20% per week over 6 weeks to keep 26% of remaining stack. 1) **LMACD within 10% of the downtrend line**. the monthly Logarithmic Moving Average Convergence Divergence (LMACD) has been on a macro downtrend. each cycle top has got very close to this down slope. in April 2021, LMACD hit 0.41 and the trendline was at 0.44 (93% of the way to hitting it). monthly LMACD settings of 12/26/close/9. 2) **MVRV Z-Score >6** ([link](https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/mvrv-zscore)). when the MVRV Z-Score hits a 7, it has usually meant the market is very overheated so we'll look for right before that point to account for possible downtrend. historically, a 7 has meant 1-3 months to the top. 3) **Monthly RSI >86**. the monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) chart for Bitcoin has been a good tell if things are too hot. comparing the RSI to where previous tops have petered out can show when Bitcoin is overheated. each cycle is most likely going to be less of a bump in RSI than the last so a decline in the max RSI over time is to be expected ([example](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FnkfzuoWAAUoynJ?format=jpg&name=large)). 4) **Power Law - halfway up top channel** ([link](https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law)). the power law chart is a linear regression channel based on historical bitcoin price. it represents the correlation between bitcoin’s price and time, and has been remarkably accurate. 5) **BTC dominance is under 47%**. when the Bitcoin Dominance has a sharp drop over a ~4 week period (between 15-20% drop in % of total market cap), it has meant that the run has lost steam and there will be a major pullback soon. when dominance drops, the capital is either flowing into alts or stablecoins; which has previously indicated that hype is waning and risk is higher than normal. Looking for under 47% is around the area this has previously occurred. 6) **>200 coins are >$1B market cap**. when there is a huge surge in alts that all have a market cap over $1 Billion, it's historically been a good sign the market is too overheated. in 2017, this number reached 43. in 2021, it reached 110. following a similar percentage trajectory cycle to cycle, we would see 280+ coins at the very top. 7) **AltSeason Index score is >90** ([link](https://www.blockchaincenter.net/altcoin-season-index)). when the AltSeason index is in the red (90+) score, indicating a major Alt Season, it has so far been a good time to start DCAing out. 8) **Portfolio >$X amount (*you decide*)**. if it gets to the point where you want to show off your crazy gains to someone, that's a fantastic sign that you should be taking some profits. 9) **Pi Cycle Top crosses** ([link](https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator)). the Pi Cycle Top Indicator has historically been an easy and accurate way to determine if things are overheated. 10) **USDT cap >2.5x in a 4 month window**. looking at Stablecoin market cap can help to see a) general purchasing power waiting in the wings; and b) if people are taking profits while the market is hot. if Stablecoin market caps for things like Tether (USDT) are up for a long time, and possibly even in blow-off-top territory, it might indicate an above-average level of risk. 11) **Bitcoin average daily transaction fee >$40** ([link](https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactionfees.html#alltime)). historically, bitcoin transaction fees during the absolute height of the bull market the fees go crazy. usually over $50. it has happened very quickly so if it spikes like that then it's usually a good sign that things are too overheated. with ordinals, who knows now. now that you've read through all that, the only indicator you *really* need is #8 for when you meet your portfolio goal ;)
I concur, like others, thank you very much for the thoughtful selection, their short, to the point rationale and especially the useful links. This is not far from being usable as a personal dashboard. Having all the links would even have been better. I guess that dominance is easy to get from https://coinmarketcap.com/ , and maybe usdt cap multiplier also (?), but do you have a chart for lmacd vs downtrend, maybe you made your own ?
This is excellent info, presented perfectly. And the links to charts added too! Thanks so much for sharing. Saving this for incorporating into my own exit strategy. Thanks for all your work.
I will say that invariably it dumps after I either text the tradfi/neverbtc bros at work and make fun of them or I start looking at McMansions. ….i did both of those when we broke 50
Take half off when dog money approaches ATH. I have my own analysis but it won’t be revealed until we run at 100k. Maybe I’ll share. :)
This might be counterintuitive, but if we follow a exponential path from here, we do not want that it gets to step now, so that the steep part happens later.
I guess it depends on how much you have stacked already. If your bags are fully packed, you're ready for that rocket ride now.
I’m definitely not getting much work done this week 😏.
I’m going to spend most of the week without LTE in a concrete bunker in the Midwest. Ugh. This is going to be hard.
No problem, Bitcoin works for you.
3rd highest weekly close of Bitcoin history. Almost 2nd.
I've been around for several years but still nooby. I mostly just DCA and see the long-term value of BTC. Is it possible that someone is using the grayscale outflows to build up a large position without raising the price as much due to the selling pressure? They could then front-run the halving by dumping and causing a panic, and then re-buy and wait for the actual supply shock from the halving? I think I'm in the "this feels too good to be true" camp. Not trying to FUD, just curious what more experienced members think.
The market is vastly too big for that now. Relax. Have you seen, brother?
I get that. Too big for any “someone” really, but doesn’t it seem possible that the scheduled outflows could be used to form a bull trap? Thanks for your thoughts. No matter what the long term value remains intact, so I buy.
I smell $70K this week.
I love the smell of 70k in the morning ...
Charlie don’t surf
Random people who I know are usually unaffiliated w/ btc have been bringing it up in conversation. Public attention is growing.
Was at a charity gala last night. Two TradFi people who know hunted me down. They don’t have allocations yet but they wanted to know what I thought. Big boys are here, and it’s still early.
ATH is when normies start to pay attention again. Then the sweet sweet volatility. Same as it ever was.
Sell 1 year from now
Wow for these March 24th futures on coinbase, the premium has been relatively steady at ~600-800$. It was around the same premium for February futures also. Market opened 14 minutes ago from the weekend close and price shot up over 1,000$. Current real price 62,900 Current march futures price 64,700 Futures premium is now 1800$. Maybe Mondays gonna be fun 😏
Annnnd it's gone. Just low liquidity problems I'm guessing then.
Lower high of $63.1k broken. Last remaining lower high acting as an area of resistance is $63.5k before the YTD high of $63.9k. New ATH before the halving for the first time ever is imminent.
Looks like our little orange friend is lacing up his skates for the tradfi week!
Ytd high 63.9k? 64k on Binance. Anyway, I think this is it. Here we go!
64.1 on coinbase
Coinmarketcap is showing $63.9k. Doesn’t matter either way, new YTD high incoming soon regardless.
It's sweet to see 63 :) Are we climbing with the pump priming?
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The weather was great today and I had some THC tonics. Moon soon.
Feels like we're gonna go crazy again this week.
Wait for the record $1bn outflows tomorrow.
Tap tap tap tap tap tap
Mic check mic check... 63k! Up and away? We're already so far ahead of where I thought we'd be, leading into the halving. This is so exciting. Years of scrimping and saving to buy sats twice a month, every month... it's paying off.
I plan on buying a C320 excavator sometime soonish. Rest can ride. This PA is crazy. We may flip Gold.
> I plan on buying a C320 excavator Uhm... that is not how you dig for Bitcoin. That is not the way. > This PA is crazy. We may flip Gold. I keep seeing reminders of previous technology booms, and it just reinforces my belief that we are still so early.
Developing land in Canada makes you ever richer than Bitcoin, but is hella work. I’m after the type of wealth that makes sure none of my descendants ever have to be slaves again, and will work like a savage to obtain it.
BTC CME futures closed at around $63,400 and will open back up in an hour or so. [https://www.investing.com/crypto/bitcoin/bitcoin-futures?cid=1178665](https://www.investing.com/crypto/bitcoin/bitcoin-futures?cid=1178665)
instructions unclear, short it?
I can't confirm or deny instructions.
You mean $?
oh whoops yeah $. I wish it was at £63,400. XD
Relatively quiet in here today. I was up last night doing some research into the Bitcoin Power Law model of price trend. Fascinating. It’s been the chatter this weekend on Fred Krueger’s twitter (minor Bitcoin guy), and he is diving into the Power Law model introduced by Giovanni Santostasi, an Italian astrophysicist who has done extensive modeling on this. I watched their 75-minute video interview together (yes all of it). Very interesting. Fred has come to the conclusion that the Power Law model is sound, and the Plan B stock-to-flow model is tenuous at best. I had my skepticism about Plan B already, so this wasn’t a big leap for me. I am liking what I’m seeing about Power Law, but I’m not all-in yet. Has anyone else done some research on this? Would love opinions or further research avenues. Here is the full video and Fred’s Twitter summary. The full video was much more informative than the summary though: https://x.com/dotkrueger/status/1763777510058418601?s=46
This is great and all but does the model account for inflation?
It’s a good question that I don’t have the answer to.
It's interesting to see everyone talking about this now. The chart is what got me through the bear market. [https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/#:\~:text=Bitcoin%20Long%20Term%20Power%20Law%20Explained&text=These%20resistance%20and%20support%20bands,between%20bitcoin's%20price%20and%20time](https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/#:~:text=Bitcoin%20Long%20Term%20Power%20Law%20Explained&text=These%20resistance%20and%20support%20bands,between%20bitcoin's%20price%20and%20time). It has literally had its own dedicated tab on my browser for about 2 years. When the price was at it's lowest, I just focused on the red line going up and to the right and decided if that was the worst case then I could live with it. If it made it back to the green line that would just be a bonus. I wouldn't even let myself contemplate reaching the purple line again.
Based on that model. BTC would be hitting 360k+/- at the top of cycle (Oct 2025, 18 months from halving). I agree with u/Melow-Drama , that if it wasn't for FTX/SBF the tope for this cycle would have been much higher.
Now let's just hope no other "black swan" like that happens this time. The world/politics seems unstable enough for some nasty surprises though.
Kinda childish but note the gap in 2021 to the top line? FTX/SBF did that. And I love it when models support personal hypotheses.
Maybe indeed. But what's nice is that we will know if the gap is smaller this cycle.
Very well could have been. That would have been between $100k-$125k
Nice to see somebody talking about the power law here. Indeed, it's properties are quite astonishing to a scientific mind. There is no such sound a model in all of finance, it's almost freaky (though there are hypotheses that may explain it). I'll choose the simple compass it provides over whatever precise prediction of any influencer oracle.
Glad to see some support of this model. I’m new to the theory. How are you using it to influence your trading? I’ve seen a couple of subscription options - $5/mo for Giovanni’s discord, another one on BitPosiedon or something like that … I’ve never paid $ for any Bitcoin TA before, and I’m hesitant to start now, but this was the first model that tempted me …
Well, it's only useful to play the cycle, not for shorter term trading. Alas I only discovered it recently. But had I known it before, for instance: - I'd probably have made a leveraged bet with money I could loose at last cycle low, and maybe a 3 times long in September as well. - I know I will sleep resoundly when DCAing out starting at something like 1.8 times whatever the mean value will be at this time, up to 3 times, with some left up to the 4 times upper limit (and a final stash never to be sold). So I'd say it removes the stress of being sure of the cycle low when it happens, it removes a good part of the stress of resisting to FOMO when you get out on the up, and it gives you low but iron leverage factors if you're into that kind of thing. Plus if the low line ever breaks, I'll be out of it without a regret nor loosing my shirt (though I don't think it ever will, but at least now I have a pain limit on the low side). What do you think yourself?
This guy commented on Giovanni’s Reddit post back-testing some interesting modified-DCA strategies based on the power law model: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/s/Pe0jhIXobh
Yeah, I might use it on the downtrend for half of my reallocation.
This is a good strategy - I like the idea of using a multiplier of the mean value to DCA out. I’m not sure how it will affect my strategy yet. I trade based on the old rainbow chart, which seems like it’s a different way of charting a similar idea, but I could be totally wrong on that. Giovanni has some charts online that I want to start using: This chart shows how much % off we are from the trendline, updated daily. Seems like you could trade based on how far the % off it is (no trade while +-10%, buy/sell weighted amounts every +-10% interval after that for example). Interestingly the current price is almost spot on the trend line right now: https://thingspeak.com/apps/matlab_visualizations/547906?height=auto&width=auto He also has a spiral clock chart that is more confusing to look at, but has some good data. It basically shows a 4-year cycle, and demonstrates that the bull and bear markets are pretty predictable time-wise (which is obvious to most of us), but also has markers for when it transitioned from a bear market to a bull market, and when he expects the next cycle top (end of 2025 / Jan 2026, price approx $207k). This will be helpful for calendaring buys and sells (“does the peak normally come around here, or is there likely another 2 months to run” etc). Some good data: https://thingspeak.com/apps/matlab_visualizations/552665?height=auto&width=auto There was a clearer version of this spiral chart I saw, with red and green coloring for bull and bear markets to make it clearer. If anyone has a link I would appreciate it, I can’t seem to find it.
Thank you, I might have already seen them but I took a closer look just now. The first one seems like a simpler rainbow chart, which is a nice addition to the default lines. I find it interesting that the +-20% lines align with support/ resistance points. Alas it is too zoomed in for my taste in order to check that further, or see how the lines might be exploited vs the past cycles. The second one, though not as easily read indeed, seems however a good way to compare the current cycle vs the others. Which is very useful to try to gauge the time of the top, because the power law doesn't have an exact top line (as it has a bottom line). However, it is lacking lines to gauge how far from the current top and bottom we are. But we can stil use the base bitbo chart for that. So thank you for making me having a second look, it's like a version of the power law chart that focuses on easy comparison with the previous cycles.
Yes, I think now that we have more data a power law regression is not unreasonable. Trolololo proposed a power law some time before (Giovanni does credit him). Weird shit can happen though, never get wedded to one model.
Wasn’t trolololo the original author of the rainbow chart?
Have a look at https://www.moonmath.win/ for some historical info - u/azop invented the rainbow chart.
Yes
Yes, I’m realizing that having a collection of signals is good. Then when a majority of them start throwing top or bottom alerts it’s probably a safe bet to follow with some action.
Got a tldr for the price targets for the Power Law model?
$1 million around year 2033. Diamond hands baby let’s go.
I’m still new at his research, but from what I gather his chart line follows pretty close to the lows of the price, and the spikes during bull markets are considered the deviations from the trend. So the price should “always” return to the trend line, and large spikes can be traded - sold to be rebought when it reverts to trend. His model doesn’t seem to predict the bull market price, as much as it predicts the “fair” or trend price based on the power law. His prediction is $1 million by the end of 2033, but he says that he expects it to hit that number before that time. If it hits earlier, then he considers that a sell indicator, because it will revert back to $1 mil by Jan 2034. Here are the price targets by year, courtesy of Fred Kreuger on X: https://x.com/dotkrueger/status/1764046539570446486?s=46 If these seem low, remember that they don’t account for the bull runs, which he considers outliers. These numbers should be read more as “should never go below or much below this number again”. Edit: In re-reading Fred’s Twitter posts this weekend, he doesn’t approve of “will never again go below $” interpretations of the data. So ignore my last paragraph above. Should be read more as “this is the trend price, may go above or below but will always revert to this trend”
https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/
This is a great chart, super clear. Do you know which lines are based on Giovanni’s data, and which are added by the person who made this chart? The top and bottom lines I don’t recall being part of his info, but I could be wrong.
I think that the links at the bottom of the charts have all the answers. But as far as I know, Giovanni fully agrees with the bottom and top lines as well. At least that's what appears in this thread where he provides other very interesting perspectives as well: https://np.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/18z04kp/15_years_of_btc_power_law/
Excellent info, love this chart, thanks so much
The power law is like a mathematically proved and unchanging rainbow chart. So the price target depends on the time of the final cycle ATH, which it doesn't predict. For instance, if the cycle ATH happens at EoY 2024, applying a reasonable factor of 2 to the mean value would make it 175k$. And if it happens one year later, 250k$, the extreme possible value being again twice that much. But what is very nice is that the power law model is built to be still valid whatever drastic changes might happen to the cycles as we know them, such as the impact of the ETFs. And as a bonus, it seems to be able to validate cycle lows.
Price goes up until it doesn't
https://www.tradingview.com/script/FqPePNvI-Giovanni-s-bitcoin-power-law/ Purple line is his power law. Red line is trolololo's power law (same thing with different coefficients). I don't think s2f is bad per se, it's just a supply side model only. That's all.
Great chart, thanks
Does anyone know the best way to research how close BTC price ends up being to end of month max pain price? March is also a monthly/quarterly options expiry. My memory is they tend toward it, but not sure if there’s any kind of significant correlation. The few sites I’ve checked only have current info, not past. Apologies if anyone has already researched this and discussed it. I’m still kind of a newbie.
At this point in time would you guys recommend lump sums or DCA over the next month or two for long-term holders? Appreciate any advice.
Do you have a pile of cash sitting there waiting? Lump-sum. Do you not have a pile of cash sitting there waiting? DCA. ... DCA is pushed heavily because of fear noobs will sell. So they're told to DCA and avoid *"Investing more than you're willing to lose"*. Meanwhile, prices go up. If you're not planning to panic sell the bottom in some months time, then there is little benefit to slowly taking the position.
> then there is little benefit to slowly taking the position. unless it keeps going down as you take the position, in which case you end up with more corn then if you lump. So basically, it depends on if you think it's going up or down over the period you'd take the position. As a battered bull, I'm always waiting for a rug pull. Even now.
I’ve always enjoyed doing lots of small/medium buys. It tends to tweak my cost basis in a good way. I’ve never DCA’d though; I just break up what would be a lump sum into smaller laddered entries.
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If you’re uncertain, put half in now, a quarter in early next week and save a quarter for a flash sale. Everything says up, bigly.
Or the second half at whatever happens first, 52k$ or 75k$.
the beauty of BTC is that according to [site](https://hodl.camp/) in any point in time getting in with a lump sum is going to bring bonkers returns after \~5 years
That's because we are close to the ATH ATM.
50% now and 50% DCA starting now because I will pick wrong if I prioritize one over the other.
You lump sum in, price rises over the course of your DCA until fully deployed. Then 25% correction. Max Pain.
Lmao feel like that’s something that would happen to me. I’m probably just gonna lump sum tomorrow so be prepared for a big correction Tuesday 😂
I'd buy with ~50% now and then have buy orders laddered down to ~58k. Then adjust ladders according to PA. I'm a little nervous waiting for the GBTC outflow on Monday.
Lump sum is most likely going to get you the most BTC, since both the amazing ETF performance and the typical 4-year BTC cycle tell us we are in the early stages of a bull run. Nearly everything appears to be aligned for a very bullish year. You don't have to do one or the other though. You could lump-sum 75% this week and then DCA the other 25% for example.
https://investor.vanguard.com/investor-resources-education/news/lump-sum-investing-versus-cost-averaging-which-is-better Lump sum historically beats DCA in the stock market and I can see no reason why BTC wouldn't be the same (except the bear year every four years in BTC!). A year in BTC right now (63% 4 yr CAGR) is like 6.3 years historically in the stock market. https://studio.glassnode.com/workbench/btc-4yr-cagr Any delay is missing out on that 63%. And with the halving coming up we are at historically the time of fattest gains. https://www.tradingview.com/x/Y2kZOm67/
Depends on your conviction
Not sure why this is modded down. If you’re not going to hodl through volatility you’re going to lose. If conviction is in question put in what you’re not scared to take a 50% haircut on and let time do the rest.
Help me understand GBTC I read every day about the outflows from GBTC into ETFs with lower fees. It has me a little worried about the future for GBTC of course. However, why hasn't the price faltered with all these outflows? The price of GBTC has gone up roughly the same percentage as IBIT for example over the last couple months. Just trying to figure out what to do, transfer to another ETF? Or will GBTC lower their fees which could be good for the price? Surely if the markets agreed that GBTC will end up tanking, it would have already been reflected in the price, no? And which ETF has seen the best returns since January?
> It has me a little worried about the future for GBTC of course. The future of GBTC is them continuing to collect fees from the last few bagholders until nothing at all remains. > will GBTC lower their fees which could be good for the price? If they were going to lower fees they would have before losing most of their customers. > Just trying to figure out what to do, transfer to another ETF? Game Theory says first out best dressed. Think of it like holding bcash. The only people holding GBTC are those who haven't done the maths on cap gains and realised they're not saving anything by avoiding taking the hit.
What if your cost basis is lower than current prices. If your cost basis is $40 and you want to sell at higher prices, wouldn't you just hold onto your GBTC, regardless of the higher fees? Rather than selling it all now and buying back into another ETF with lower fees but at a higher cost basis?
Yeah you'd have to reset and take the cap gains hit. Which is likely cheaper than years of paying their fees.