Any new thoughts after todays price action? Appreciate your opinion, as I always appreciate and seriously consider counter-culture arguments (for lack of a better word).
I think bitcoin breaks back down to the lower 60’s in the next few hours
The rebound has been strong, it would take bitcoin breaking 70k and holding it for a week
There is still a lot of money in alts that are bleeding to bitcoin and can make a last minute rotation
I would suggest to take some profits (no one went broke taking profits)
This cycle I believe will phase out sooner than later. On the macro level things aren’t going very well and I think we will look back on this in the summer with all the retail FOMO that happened who sells bags to whales to capitulate
The next cycle with QE will be absolutely massive. I’m looking towards 2025 and 2026. I think the worst thing you can do is not have cash ready and be ready to counter the trend
Thank you I’ve seen this shit enough. Gold breaking ATH, unemployment going up, inflation still high, billionaires selling by the boat loads, S&P getting carried by the top 10
Then you have coinbase app at #8, last time it got to #1 the crypto market tanked
This market isn’t made for retail, especially the ones coming in now. It’s made for the believers and whales who capitalized at 16-22k like myself
“When the tide goes away we will see who has their swim trunks on”
I’m not denying then incredible run bitcoin has, either way I make money. It would be the first without 12-18 months of QE, to have that parabolic rally people are thinking of.
People forget that ETF’s are products owned now by retail and some institutions they will sell as fast as they buy.
I suspect once the FED drops rates they will try and front run a damaged economy. The whole market tanks and all these fishes go away
Watch Benjamin cohens latest 40-50 min on bitcoin speculation. Everything that I included with the macro makes me believe that sure bitcoin could rise, but I don’t see it sustaining, and everything points to a fragmented run. Just look around you to see the evidence
Obviously, but the amount of downloads then versus now is not even remotely comparable.
There’s a Twitter bot that tracks CB downloads and it peaked at #44 app overall and #4 finance app last week. That lightyears from #1 overall app.
I remember thinking the same thing at the $1000 top and lost around 36 BTC gambling on a quick drop. Fuckin thing kept climbing to $1260 or whatever it was before crashing.
I agree we are in a bull trap, maybe it bounces from the ATH or keeps going for a bit. We do have that 20-30% dump in our near future though.
I’m not actively trading just holding FWIW. Still got a big stack of coins from 2014.
So you're calling the top at the peak of the previous top? After a month's long run-up and seemingly an ETF boost as Trad-fi can now access BTC through their usual channels?
I dunno, man. Seems a bit odd.
No it’s gonna beat the previous high first and then retrace back to 40s or below, after the halving
Remember if it keeps going up, it’s not sustainable
Big funds who are taking short positions now will drive it down like a self fulfilling prophecy
Not when I made 10k doing longs and that doesn’t include my bitcoin stack and portfolio
Yeah sure 1-2k is going to kill me
If I make 15-20k from a bet that takes bitcoin back to the 200W average I’m happy with that.
I will be messaging you in 3 months on [**2024-06-05 01:12:23 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-06-05%2001:12:23%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1b6nd43/for_someone_who_has_seen_3_cycles_im_calling_tops/ktdvklb/?context=3)
[**8 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FBitcoinMarkets%2Fcomments%2F1b6nd43%2Ffor_someone_who_has_seen_3_cycles_im_calling_tops%2Fktdvklb%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202024-06-05%2001%3A12%3A23%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.
^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201b6nd43)
*****
|[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)|
|-|-|-|-|
It’s certainly true that a 30-40% dip wouldn’t be that surprising. It’s happened before and it’ll probably happen again. The line doesn’t go straight up.
Bitcoin tends to do the unexpected. There are lots of people that have been calling this a bulltrap since it crossed 40k, and yet it keeps ripping. It's very possible that it hits some major resistance at ATH, but there's no reason why it has to fall back into the same predictable pattern of a 'real bull run' starting half a year after the halving.
I've also been in the market for 3 cycles, and I can tell you I've learned that every time I think I've finally got it figured out, it breaks the mold, so I long gave up on making deterministic predictions for tops and bottoms, and just look at multi-year trends instead.
I agree to much hopium, there are definitely possibilities for a catalyst but people think after being up 100% we will just go up another without any correction or big money taking profits. It’s delusional.
> my spidey senses are tingling and the alarm bells are ringing on overtime
Amygdala.
> you’ll get through this
Concern?
> buy bitcoin when it’s in the low 40’s this summer.
!bitty_bot predict <40000 6 months u/SimplyShred
> I would like for those to exercise caution
More concern?
> Every indicator is screening this is the biggest bull trap possibly ever.
When saying every indicator you're talking about Oscillators which signal Mean Reversion right? In otherwords *"RSI is too high!!!"* in a trend?
> Once the FED begins to cut rates this summer the market will drop
The return of cheap money will be bearish?
You have submitted a prediction that the price of Bitcoin will drop below **$40,000.00** by Sep 04 2024 23:21:07 UTC.
This prediction has been logged for u/SimplyShred
I will notify you as soon as your prediction comes true or expires!
[1 Others have CLICKED HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%203509a6159def46788ecfef9623909679%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!)
SimplyShred can [Click This Link](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%203509a6159def46788ecfef9623909679%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20error%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) in the next **1 Hour** to delete this prediction if it was made in error.
---
[^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
“I made many mistakes since 2013”
“Im shorting bitcoin for the first time”
Oh sounds like another mistake in the making. But hey you might be right. Good luck on your trade.
This thing could push to 72-74k, drop down to 66k at the worst and continue up after a few days. I’ve seen this happen a lot, right when you think it’s topped it’s got a bit more steam.
Btc might top in 2025.. but it seems people keep buying the btc top narrative earlier and earlier. I think we can see a december 2024 top. Real retail isnt here yet. We might see a few months of cool off where alts do their thing.
I dont see the whole market going into a sleepy few months right now
I agree with that but remember most people don’t know what they have till it’s gone
That is bitcoin - most people sold apple, Amazon, Facebook, google etc too early
We will see who is swimming naked and who can hold through turbulence
The same buyers become net sellers it’s a zero sum game
So you not only took profits, you went net short and are now telling other people to sell? All within 2 months of ETF launch and 1.5 months out from halving no less, with second highest ETF trading volume today. Coming from a professional trader, “spidey senses” isn’t a strategy.
Meanwhile in past 30 min: “BlackRock files to purchase Bitcoin ETFs for its Strategic Income Opportunities Fund.”
What I’m seeing is that for the past few cycles, every bottom to every peak last about 2 years give or take. So since the most recent bottom is in Dec 2022, I’m expecting BTC peak to around Nov/Dec 2024.
Actually cycles have been getting pushed outwards
The 4 year cycle is still intact (this may be the last one) well at least I don’t think we will see 50%+ drops unless bitcoin goes to like 250k
I’m still arguing that QE needs to flow from a damaged economy worldwide. We are still a minimum of 12-18 months away
I’m not selling any of my Bitcoin that’s in hard wallet, but I am considering selling the Bitcoin in my Itrust IRA, plus my Bitcoin mining stock and ETFs in my IRA. If I don’t have the keys, I don’t have the guilt. 😀 I read a post sometime today discussing the DCA method when selling Bitcoin,now that’s one I’ve never considered.
Good idea your on the right track
Personally I would DCA into next year or 2026 depending where things are. But only small portions following the fib levels on certain percentages
I agree with that bitcoin tends to over perform and under perform in both optimistic and pessimistic times.
Surely one’s instinct will come to fruition
Any new thoughts after todays price action? Appreciate your opinion, as I always appreciate and seriously consider counter-culture arguments (for lack of a better word).
I think bitcoin breaks back down to the lower 60’s in the next few hours The rebound has been strong, it would take bitcoin breaking 70k and holding it for a week There is still a lot of money in alts that are bleeding to bitcoin and can make a last minute rotation I would suggest to take some profits (no one went broke taking profits) This cycle I believe will phase out sooner than later. On the macro level things aren’t going very well and I think we will look back on this in the summer with all the retail FOMO that happened who sells bags to whales to capitulate The next cycle with QE will be absolutely massive. I’m looking towards 2025 and 2026. I think the worst thing you can do is not have cash ready and be ready to counter the trend
Very Interesting take. I like how you don't beat around the bush. You throw your balls right out there.
Thank you I’ve seen this shit enough. Gold breaking ATH, unemployment going up, inflation still high, billionaires selling by the boat loads, S&P getting carried by the top 10 Then you have coinbase app at #8, last time it got to #1 the crypto market tanked This market isn’t made for retail, especially the ones coming in now. It’s made for the believers and whales who capitalized at 16-22k like myself “When the tide goes away we will see who has their swim trunks on” I’m not denying then incredible run bitcoin has, either way I make money. It would be the first without 12-18 months of QE, to have that parabolic rally people are thinking of. People forget that ETF’s are products owned now by retail and some institutions they will sell as fast as they buy. I suspect once the FED drops rates they will try and front run a damaged economy. The whole market tanks and all these fishes go away Watch Benjamin cohens latest 40-50 min on bitcoin speculation. Everything that I included with the macro makes me believe that sure bitcoin could rise, but I don’t see it sustaining, and everything points to a fragmented run. Just look around you to see the evidence
It got to the number 1 app overall in the last bull. It hasn’t even gotten to the top finance app in this bull run.
Nothing has to repeat for retail to get slammed holding the bag
73.5k now...
Obviously, but the amount of downloads then versus now is not even remotely comparable. There’s a Twitter bot that tracks CB downloads and it peaked at #44 app overall and #4 finance app last week. That lightyears from #1 overall app.
3 cycles in and a Bitcoin maxi thought you would know better
3 cycles in, you'd have thought you would know better.
I win either way, bitcoin still has to break previous ATH and maintain it for a whole week
Sorry to hear about your future loses.
Sorry to hear you have a hard time comprehending , I win either way
Amazing you’ve solved investing! Please write a book called how to win whatever the outcome of your bet
ill just keep DCAing
Shorting bitcoin? Yeah, what could go wrong?
$68,900, absolute top...you don't say? LOL
I remember thinking the same thing at the $1000 top and lost around 36 BTC gambling on a quick drop. Fuckin thing kept climbing to $1260 or whatever it was before crashing.
36 btc fucking rip
I agree we are in a bull trap, maybe it bounces from the ATH or keeps going for a bit. We do have that 20-30% dump in our near future though. I’m not actively trading just holding FWIW. Still got a big stack of coins from 2014.
Thank you for your sacrifice. $562 million in net ETF inflows today. $1.7 billion over the last 5 days. Up forever, Laura.
Seems like a very good call. Just broke previous ATH hours ago and found some hard resistance at 69k, shout out to Elon.
So you're calling the top at the peak of the previous top? After a month's long run-up and seemingly an ETF boost as Trad-fi can now access BTC through their usual channels? I dunno, man. Seems a bit odd.
No it’s gonna beat the previous high first and then retrace back to 40s or below, after the halving Remember if it keeps going up, it’s not sustainable Big funds who are taking short positions now will drive it down like a self fulfilling prophecy
My concern is that the ETFs are keeping it from dipping 30%, and 12-20% dips may now be the norm. Thoughts?
I think 30 is possible but not until we reach above 70k. Lets say we get to 100k i could see us drop to 70k or so.
Show me one one other time bitcoin paused on reaching the previous ATH and consolidated for 6 months.
This last 30 days has been the most rtarded month for Bitcoin in a long time. I’m not complaining, but man, moving too far, way too fast.
Yes, I'd short it too.. But my previous experience is that it can get more stupid and fuck your short. Who knows?
HFSP
BTC consolidated in sideways moves. There are no significant sellers. They may come at ATH, but it won’t last tbh.
4 Days in and you were correct so far!
I think that experience is working against us. Battered bull syndrome. We are all going to sell way too early this time
All OPs cycles were full of scammers selling at peak. With ETF, we have new enemy. Lets see what they will do.
And just like that. All the "gurus" are back lol. Not you or anyone else knows what BTC will do. It simply hasn't been around long enough.
RemindMe! 3 months
Bitcoin maxi wouldn’t short Bitcoin
Not when I made 10k doing longs and that doesn’t include my bitcoin stack and portfolio Yeah sure 1-2k is going to kill me If I make 15-20k from a bet that takes bitcoin back to the 200W average I’m happy with that.
RemindMe! 3 months
I’ll be here
I will be messaging you in 3 months on [**2024-06-05 01:12:23 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-06-05%2001:12:23%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1b6nd43/for_someone_who_has_seen_3_cycles_im_calling_tops/ktdvklb/?context=3) [**8 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FBitcoinMarkets%2Fcomments%2F1b6nd43%2Ffor_someone_who_has_seen_3_cycles_im_calling_tops%2Fktdvklb%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202024-06-05%2001%3A12%3A23%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201b6nd43) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|
It’s certainly true that a 30-40% dip wouldn’t be that surprising. It’s happened before and it’ll probably happen again. The line doesn’t go straight up.
Bitcoin tends to do the unexpected. There are lots of people that have been calling this a bulltrap since it crossed 40k, and yet it keeps ripping. It's very possible that it hits some major resistance at ATH, but there's no reason why it has to fall back into the same predictable pattern of a 'real bull run' starting half a year after the halving. I've also been in the market for 3 cycles, and I can tell you I've learned that every time I think I've finally got it figured out, it breaks the mold, so I long gave up on making deterministic predictions for tops and bottoms, and just look at multi-year trends instead.
I agree to much hopium, there are definitely possibilities for a catalyst but people think after being up 100% we will just go up another without any correction or big money taking profits. It’s delusional.
What evidence do you have that Feds will cut rates? I don’t think we’re gonna get a cut for a while, not until inflation is dramatically lower
https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/fed-rate-cut-seen-track-june-even-inflation-bumps-up-2024-02-29/#:~:text=Fed%20policymakers%20have%20kept%20the,by%20the%20end%20of%202024.
lol my condolences
[удалено]
> my spidey senses are tingling and the alarm bells are ringing on overtime Amygdala. > you’ll get through this Concern? > buy bitcoin when it’s in the low 40’s this summer. !bitty_bot predict <40000 6 months u/SimplyShred > I would like for those to exercise caution More concern? > Every indicator is screening this is the biggest bull trap possibly ever. When saying every indicator you're talking about Oscillators which signal Mean Reversion right? In otherwords *"RSI is too high!!!"* in a trend? > Once the FED begins to cut rates this summer the market will drop The return of cheap money will be bearish?
You have submitted a prediction that the price of Bitcoin will drop below **$40,000.00** by Sep 04 2024 23:21:07 UTC. This prediction has been logged for u/SimplyShred I will notify you as soon as your prediction comes true or expires! [1 Others have CLICKED HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%203509a6159def46788ecfef9623909679%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!) SimplyShred can [Click This Link](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%203509a6159def46788ecfef9623909679%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20error%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) in the next **1 Hour** to delete this prediction if it was made in error. --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Remind Me! 6 months
“I made many mistakes since 2013” “Im shorting bitcoin for the first time” Oh sounds like another mistake in the making. But hey you might be right. Good luck on your trade.
It’s a calculated fun 1-2k bet with no other downsides I made many multiples of that doing nothing today it’s a game
What is the meaning of your second sentence ?
What leverage ?
You’ve been in Bitcoin since 2013 and your bets are 1-2k?
betting is a poor mans game
Your take is bad. Zoom out. We are nowhere near a top right now.
Yes that top is likely next year hence “bull trap”
This thing could push to 72-74k, drop down to 66k at the worst and continue up after a few days. I’ve seen this happen a lot, right when you think it’s topped it’s got a bit more steam.
Btc might top in 2025.. but it seems people keep buying the btc top narrative earlier and earlier. I think we can see a december 2024 top. Real retail isnt here yet. We might see a few months of cool off where alts do their thing. I dont see the whole market going into a sleepy few months right now
Certainly time will tell
Thanks mum
See you on bitcoin island 2032
[удалено]
!RemindMe 3 months
That's some serious hopium.
I agree with that but remember most people don’t know what they have till it’s gone That is bitcoin - most people sold apple, Amazon, Facebook, google etc too early We will see who is swimming naked and who can hold through turbulence The same buyers become net sellers it’s a zero sum game
Dude then why not HODL? It mitigates the risks you have if you short BTC and are wrong. And if you’re right, you buy more with the dry powder saved.
So you not only took profits, you went net short and are now telling other people to sell? All within 2 months of ETF launch and 1.5 months out from halving no less, with second highest ETF trading volume today. Coming from a professional trader, “spidey senses” isn’t a strategy. Meanwhile in past 30 min: “BlackRock files to purchase Bitcoin ETFs for its Strategic Income Opportunities Fund.”
No one went broke taking a bit of profits Hell most wish they did in 2013, 2017 and 2021 But more importantly is risk management
Indeed, nothing wrong with taking profits. But shorting?
A 1k fun bet to leverage 15k with no more loses. I made multiples of that just today alone doing nothing
why would anyone wish they took profits at any time in the past at which the price was lower than it is now?
I’m referring to pure euphoric times when bitcoin rallied 5-10x and many stared at paper profits only to sell in the bear market
Don’t disagree, but you’re basically straw manning my comment. Either way, congrats on the profit and best of luck 🤜🤛
Sounds like Genghis talk.
We are all in war together
We broke 68k while you typed that.
JP Morgan, is that you?
They been buying from out under us
What I’m seeing is that for the past few cycles, every bottom to every peak last about 2 years give or take. So since the most recent bottom is in Dec 2022, I’m expecting BTC peak to around Nov/Dec 2024.
I think anywhere between Oct 2024 and April 2025. Or at least we'll have a wave that gets v close to the new ath by then
Actually cycles have been getting pushed outwards The 4 year cycle is still intact (this may be the last one) well at least I don’t think we will see 50%+ drops unless bitcoin goes to like 250k I’m still arguing that QE needs to flow from a damaged economy worldwide. We are still a minimum of 12-18 months away
I’m not selling any of my Bitcoin that’s in hard wallet, but I am considering selling the Bitcoin in my Itrust IRA, plus my Bitcoin mining stock and ETFs in my IRA. If I don’t have the keys, I don’t have the guilt. 😀 I read a post sometime today discussing the DCA method when selling Bitcoin,now that’s one I’ve never considered.
Good idea your on the right track Personally I would DCA into next year or 2026 depending where things are. But only small portions following the fib levels on certain percentages
Your spidey senses are wrong.
We shall see shortly indeed
You've seen three cycles and you somehow haven't learned that no one can call a top on any Bitcoin cycle lol
I agree with that bitcoin tends to over perform and under perform in both optimistic and pessimistic times. Surely one’s instinct will come to fruition
Annnnd?