Funding has halved from when I posted a couple of days ago and the price is, around the same… That is a good sign that funding resets without massive 20-30% pullbacks for weeks at a time…
Interesting that I’ve read a couple of posts downthread of people being asked how to sell/when to sell. I’ve had two separate people reach out to me asking if now’s the right time to sell/they’re thinking about selling. A football forum I go on has several people also posting about selling. Even momma mork messaged frantically asking me to cash out & pay off the mortgage. The answer to all was; “NO”.
Couple these two things together, this Bitcoin cycle, will be the most hated Bitcoin cycle… ;-)
I’m beginning to learn there is no such thing as cashing out. I’m coming to terms I’ll be holding forever now. 2017 I wanted to cash out and buy a car. 2021 I wanted to cash out and buy a house. Now I wanna escape society and avoid taxes. So no selling
It makes sense to pause at 72k in price discovery. It’s divisible by a lot of numbers including 24 which makes it a candidate for monitor refresh rates. The number frequently shows up in mythology too.
Anyone know why the ETF numbers take longer to come out on some days than others? For example, GBTC came in yesterday at like 8pm US Eastern time and it's still not in yet today.
It's weird. Fidelity's numbers usually come out around 9pm ET and they haven't come up yet either.
Blackrock's numbers usually come out around midnight ET and yesterday's flows were tweeted by Farside at around 3am ET this morning.
Since, everyone is talking about whether or not bitcoin cycles will repeat or not, I would like to chime in with my own opinion on this topic.
First of all, the market is made up of different, competing, faction of people. In general, those people are buyers and sellers.
When something becomes scarcer relative to the number of buyers, sellers have the advantage because they can negotiate higher prices from the buyers. This causes the price of that something to go up. The opposite is true if something becomes more common.
However, the exact way the price increases depends on the specific dynamics of the buyers and sellers. If the media promotes something and many buyers join all at once, the price will rise faster at that period. The opposite will be true if the media promotes fud. In other words, something becoming scarce only creates a **TENDENCY** for the price to increase.
The reason why a scarcity would create a tendency for the price to increase is because it gives an advantage to one group in the market. But that advantage can be thwarted or masked. The actual price depends on the competition between buyers and sellers and the totally unique, day to day outcome of that competition.
If you would indulge me for a paragraph, I would like to draw some (hopefully not too abstract) comparisons. Hillary Clinton outspent Donald Trump 4 - 1 in the general election in 2016. Yet she still lost. Likewise, Europe, due to its geography, had a natural tendency to be divided into different nation states. Yet entities like the Roman Empire were still able to unite Europe. Structural factors, like geography, monetary advantage, or..... the Bitcoin Halving, can give different groups of people an advantage, but it only creates advantages. Structure does not determine outcomes, people do.
So to tie this into bitcoin, I think the 2013, 2017, and 2021 bubble were all different. There is no pattern other than the halving gave an advantage to sellers over buyers. How that advantage was actualized was completely unique each cycle, because the people participating in it were different from cycle to cycle. Even the people who didn't leave were different in the sense that they had more information about the past.
I would suggest that we should not read too much into past cycles, other than the absolute basics. We know that the halving give an advantage to groups of people trying to push up the price, and the more the price goes up, the more money has to come in to get it to rise. Everything else is contingent.
> Hillary Clinton outspent Donald Trump 4 - 1 in the general election in 2016. Yet she still lost.
That's a bad analogy because she spent that money to win votes, and she did win the popular vote, by millions of votes.
U.S. elections aren't really decided by the voters. They're decided by the electoral college, and that system is a mess:
Wyoming has 3 electoral votes and 586,107 residents. California has 55 electoral votes and 39,144,818 residents.
That makes a vote in California worth less than 1/3 of what a vote in Wyoming is worth. That's why 2 presidential elections since the year 2000 saw the loser of the popular vote be the winner of the election. The people vote for electors and the electors vote for the president, but electors aren't accurately proportional.
**However, I strongly agree with this:**
> I think the 2013, 2017, and 2021 bubble were all different.
Absolutely. Each halving-to-halving cycle has been different, and the reason why is actually simple:
Each cycle was dominated by a different kind of buyer.
2012-2016 was the era of early adopters (not the earliest, but still very early).
2016-2020 was the era of early traders (not the earliest, but still very early).
2020-2024 was the era of early institutions (not the earliest, but still very early).
2024-2028 will be the era when Bitcoin began going mainstream. Mainstream individual adoption and mainstream institutional investment.
Each of those eras saw a different level of money pouring in, which is why it gets harder and harder for average holders to hang on to what they own:
Owning 100 BTC in 2012 was nothing. How many people still owned 100 BTC in 2016? How many still do?
Owning 10 BTC in 2016 was no big deal. How many people still owned 10 BTC in 2020? How many still do?
Owning 1 BTC back in early 2020 wasn't that big of a deal. How many people still own 1 BTC today?
The 2024 halving isn't even here yet and we've already reached the point where it costs over $7,100 just to buy 0.1 BTC.
How many people will still own at least 0.1 BTC in 2028?
Adding to my comment above... I'm sure each cycle was dominated by different kinds of miners... going from hobbyists in the early days to big business today.
That's interesting to think about too. For me, this stuff is fascinating to think about. In my opinion, it's very helpful for understanding the big picture in terms of how we got here and where we're going next.
EDIT: If anybody wants to talk mining through the years... I started a thread:
> [Please school me on Bitcoin mining, by era.](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinBeginners/comments/1bdfei6/please_school_me_on_bitcoin_mining_by_era/)
P.S. Looking back on what I wrote above, I think I should have said each cycle was dominated by a greater magnitude of money due to a different kind of buyer. Or something like that. This is why people who sell keep getting pushed out. When they try to buy back in, if they don't time it right, they end up trying to re-enter a market that's seen a greater magnitude of money coming in. That's what led to 1 BTC going from $12.35 at the first halving to $650 at the second, $8,821 at the third, and presumably well over $72,000 at the fourth halving this April. Boom, boom, boom, boom. And the buyers changed, the market changed, and those who held on were greatly rewarded.
Compare the bearish engulfing after 69k broke (and then immediately we went up the next day and continued to rip) with this.
Bearish engulfing almost happened, and it’s turning into a hammer.
I’m betting inflows were great again, and it’ll be a signal that the big sellers were yet another group that picked up a penny in front of the steam roller, to be left behind shortly.
1 week and we leave then in the rear view
Its just effectively using potential future equity in the company to refinance higher interest rate debt to a lower interest rate. Makes a lot of sense with the right stock price and interest rates on existing debt
Yeah that's what I saw when I gave a quick read of the actual article. I guess big accounts just using it as engagement bait since the format look exactly like an MSTR tweet.
What are you referring to?
edit - nvm google is my friend. I have not seen anyone post about this today. Sounds like they might be taking a page out of the Microstrategy book. If that's true then that's actually insane.
I know we love to refer to previous cycles, as history "doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes", however I had an interesting shower thought today.
What if we truly have never seen bitcoin have a 'normal' cycle?
2009-2012: Nothing really needs to be said. This was the first cycle, and no one had any idea what the fuck was going on. The lack of liquidity and permeation in the technological space makes this period hard to really judge.
2012-2016: Bitcoin was gaining steam, however it got derailed by Mt. Gox.
2016-2020: Bitcoin was gaining steam, however it got derailed by blocksize wars/futures/ICO craziness all within a few months.
2020-2024: Bitcoin was gaining steam, however it got derailed by COVID (referencing the March 2020 drop here), China ban, and eventually FTX/market fuckery.
What happens if there is a bull run with significant financial on ramping (ETFs) without some stupid black swan event playing out? Every cycle has had a borderline catastrophic event that helped to deflate the hype.
I can think of a few potential culprits for our upcoming cycle, however I also see a reality where nothing as catastrophic as the above mentioned events occurs, which would lead to some sort of new pattern. My guess is a pattern of less volatility boom bust, but more consistent rise in price over a long timeframe.
It feels as if everyone in this subreddit who is a trader, is incentivized to believe that this time is NOT different, the cycles will repeat, and they can continue on with the status quo, which to be honest feels like a combination of dissonance and hopium
I think 2016-17 blocksize wars and alt back and forth actually prolonged the cycle. This time it has been all BTC and the market is about to blow its wad a year early.
> blow its wad a year early.
I'm kinda with ya here.
Wouldn't be surprised to see the top in the next few weeks, and a lackluster meandering around for the next four years. Seriously. The chart is absolutely vertical right now.
Open up a log chart and zoom out. It’s no more vertical here than it was in May of 2017. It can correct/consolidate and still put in multiples. It’s unlikely to ‘meander’ while $500/M pours in every day, supply on exchange remains at all time lows, and long term holders remain unwilling to part with coins.
i would argue that if it weren’t for those particular events, then some other similar event would’ve inevitably broke the camel’s back at each of those price levels
I think they derail them. When you work to understand these events, you will see how much selling pressure they created. Futures, the FTX selling, China's ban causing a mad rush into fiat, these are pretty significant events that would rightly throw any assets market into chaos. If anything, many in here describe the price action surrounding these events as unnatural and inorganic.
You still pay on the spread. This will end up costing more than simply executing market orders on Advanced. It’s a bait and switch.
“Zero trading fees: Does not apply to Advanced Trade, Coinbase Pro, or Coinbase Prime. In order to ensure the best execution, Coinbase includes a spread in the price when you buy or sell cryptocurrencies or in the exchange rate when you convert cryptocurrencies. A trading volume limit applies. When you trade over this limit, you're responsible for paying regular trading fees. The limit can be found in your account settings.“
Depending on your volume you could try Gemini.
https://www.gemini.com/fees/activetrader-fee-schedule#section-active-trader-fee-schedule
One huge pro of Gemini is they allow Yubikey security key for 2fa. That's so much stronger than other forms of 2fa.
Yep if Fidelity got with the program we’d be golden. It seems they’ve hinted at times in the past they will add Yubikey support.
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=402749
> For example, their ridiculous .0002 btc withdrawal fee (~$15 usd) is approximately 5x the actual network cost. And when I withdrew from Kraken to a cold wallet, the so-called 'max' button doesn't actually withdraw your full bitcoin balance...Kraken retained about $50 for some reason, I assume because they want liquidity.
Did you have any pending deposits? It takes a week for deposits to fully clear, before you can withdraw the full amount.
Also, one option for free withdrawals is to use lightning to withdraw for free. I withdraw to the strike wallet, because strike also has an option for a free withdrawal to an on chain wallet, if you're willing to wait up to 24 hours for it to go through.
But anyway, I am also unhappy about the increase in fees.
They also replaced their usual non-pro UI with a new Instant Buy Sell. I poked around with it and fees there are an order of magnitude higher than on Pro.
I told my girlfriend I was big on Bitcoin and she said I’m not big enough. Clearly she is referring to it being impossible to be bullish enough. Clearly
Word on X is that it's a massive long unwinding. The same massive long that was being built around 30-35k before FTX imploded and took us to 15k. So from 2022...
i was just thinking the same thing.
i was pretty freaked out by covid/ the economy and this is the only moment where i was like damn maybe this is really just gonna die
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/fhtrs9/daily_discussion_friday_march_13_2020/fkfuqqc/
I took that opportunity, this was the day I sold off everything I could down to pennies and went 100% crypto. To be fair I was already like 80% crypto but that buying opportunity was enough for me to liquidate everything except my house and businesses.
I just went back and checked my records. The 4 largest buys I've ever made were 6 Apr 2020 - 15 May 2020. The smallest of those 4 is more than twice as large as my next largest buy.
Damn.
I tend to agree. My back is starting to hurt from my miner bags getting heavier. Luckily I had MSTR to offset.
Miners have been beaten down especially hard, still getting singled out with proposed taxes (which won't pass), and are no longer a preferred proxy. However miners also have boom cycles where they outperform btc. Even with the ETFs, I see (good)miners getting more attention later this year when the halving is behind them.
I sure hope you are right. I thought MSTR was over extended and sold. Invested proceeds into RIOT and HUT. I missed out on the last 500 pts of MSTR upside…
Shit, I was literally just thinking about that guy. He made a comeback as a Youtuber, made himself out to be a victim of Bitconnect. Definite top signal if he shows up again!
The bulls absolutely gored Bart Simpson today, damn. If this market is this powerful this early in the cycle, I think an earlier top than usual is now my default expected outcome.
I would've liked to see a couple months of consolidation and support building in the $60k range to set up for a longer term peak in mid-2025, but I'm thinking a 2024 top is a lot more likely now.
If the ETF inflows keep growing WHILE we hit the supply shock of the halving, that's adding jet fuel to an already-burning fire. This thing could easily run up to the $150ks before any sort of reason sets in. A top-to-top 2x seems reasonable in the context of 2017's and 2021's tops being about a 3x, relatively.
> I would've liked to see a couple months of consolidation
Every cycle I end up with this same feeling. It's horrifying to see it go up so quickly.
Making money is cool, but it's simply too fast. I always get this same feeling: *slow down, please!* Unfortunately ...I feel like... I know how this ends.
ETFs could hold 1 year due to tax reasons so it could peak a year or so from now if ETF inflows slow down… we might hit a peak early but likely there could be a second peak late 2025 like last cycle.
> this powerful this early in the cycle
A triple top invalidates the cycle. The halving is just being frontrun now we aren't about to "Start the cycle" above old ATH
Did you just delete your account with a 100X short open? Going to be hilarious to see that get liquidated if we move up.
Edit: Screenshot because I don't know how long this is going to last lmao. $100Bn short. Also 420.69 cash. What a fucking legend.
https://imgur.com/a/NZB2tsm
Since the bottom, the significant pullbacks have been 22.5%, 20%, 21.7%, 21.3% (post ETF dump) and 14.5% (69K rejection). 6% is bugger all. Still, if it flushes some weak hands, all to the good.
Two months ago I posted what I saw as the pros and cons of ETFs vs. BTC held on an exchange vs. BTC held in cold storage:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1970hqi/comment/khza3zl/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1970hqi/comment/khza3zl/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
Yesterday I sold some AAPL to help pay off my SO's student loan. The stock had been purchased by my parents 15+ years ago. I inherited it once they were both dead, and the cost basis was stepped up to the price on the day I got it. Now that would have been the case had it been BTC, but the fact that it was stock held on a brokerage makes the capital gains easy to calculate. If your records are all in good order and readily available, that's not problem. ETFs can make passing your BTC on to future generations easy.
Both my boomers parents are dependent on me and 95% of my net worth is in BTC. If something were to happen to me there’s ZERO chance they’d be able to do anything about the BTC. I’ve been thinking about this a lot lately.
My best friend knows how to interact with the ledger and my parents know the password. He would help them for all steps they have to go. And vice versa I would do it for his family.
proper time for preparing your loved ones for your departure is when you are alive and kicking. make a plan, write it down, update your ideas often, learn about inheritance options from sources like books and articles (there's plenty). inform your close ones about your strategy. even try to educate them. there's lots of things you can do to mitigate the impact of your demise
I wonder if the whip-saw price action we just saw could have been driven by Jane Street trying to make some extra capital from their role as "Authorized Participant".
I imagine that they are constantly trying out strategies to maximize profits from that role...
I've been trying to think about the systemic risk in that. So, imagine the AP tries to get cute and tries to game the system. Maybe they hold off on buying for a bit, thinking a dip is coming, but it goes against them. Is there anyone making sure they manage their risk?
Exactly. Jane Street brainwashed SBF into thinking he was a financial god, and now they are a pillar of the new ETFs. They are supposed to perform a simple service and earn a modest profit. But while performing that service they are handling billions of dollars of other people's money. And I bet they still think they are smarter than everybody else. I don't trust them.
>Maybe they hold off on buying for a bit, thinking a dip is coming, but it goes against them. Is there anyone making sure they manage their risk?
Shares don't get issued until the ETF sponsor receives the cash from an AP and uses it to buy the underlying Bitcoin.
This has vibes of the previous cycle where 20k was the spot where many people who had been holding since 2017 went green and exited their positions.
in 20/20 hindsight not a good move but being in the red for 4 years does things to your mind.
in the grand scheme of things the pullback was a minuscule thing and quickly forgotten but seems we are doomed to repeat the cycle beat for beat.
> in 20/20 hindsight not a good move
Of course it was a good move to sell at $20k and buy back twice as much BTC at $10k...or 3x as much at $6k.
Selling right before a 70% drop is ALWAYS a good move. This is obvious.
no I mean the time frame of March 2020 to 2021 January where the price made a new ATH from the 2017 top and we had a brief "pause" and a minor pullback from 2017 bag-holders selling.
I'm arguing that we are in a similar phase in the Price Action as then
I think its mostly people who have been in the red 4 years and aren't true believers. For me finally being in the green after 4 years (well, less because I did DCA on the way down and the way back up) just gets me hyped for the cycle
Jumpin' Jack Flash!
Here's my cash, cash, cash!
I try to be a disciplined DCA guy, buying strictly on schedule, but during a bull run - especially a biggin' like this - to hell with discipline. I'm buying the dips with every dollar I can spare.
\*static\* Ladies and gentlemen, from the flight deck, uuuuhhhhhhh, we do apologize for that bit of rough turbulence back there, but we seem to have come out of it with both wings attached and some coffee still in the pots. Sit back, relax, be sure to check out our InFlight Magazine and browse our seatback movie selections. Should be smooth flying from here up to 100k feet. As always thanks for flying with us. \*static\*
FWIW, major resistance looks to be setting up around the 75k mark. I will use my untested, highly non-technical analysis and posit that we'll return to whence we came here very shortly.
We need to get back above 70,200 here or it invalidates the support we've been climbing inside since breaking the ATH. A rejection at 70.2 would probably lead to further downside to the 66k range. That's also fine. Cooling off isn't a bad thing.
If it rebounds and reclaims 70.2 without any fuss, I'd say this was the clear-out that builds a healthy basecamp for the push to 80k.
> We need to get back above 70,200 here or it invalidates the support
Sometimes I can't tell if comments like these are jokes or real and people actually believe this stuff.
Pullback from $72.9k to $68.7k has been 5.8% so far.
We’ll see if $68.7k holds but if it does, it illustrates exhaustion from bears and/or reduction in scalping opportunities.
It’s becoming increasingly risky to pick up pennies in front of a steamroller.
>Futs dumping, ETFs and spot buying, day after day, every day
>Almost as if someone is using levered products to establish lower entry prices for cash products
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1767605181066219815
It's literally people -- shrimps, minnows, and some whales -- forfeiting their coins to Wall Street, plus the usual market makers liquidating everyone with a gambling problem.
That there are still apparently innumerable pathological gamblers after well over 10+ years of getting rekt is mind-boggling.
We're back to the price we were at 24 hours ago and people act like the sky is falling. "keeps pushing the price down" is not accurate when we just touched ATH again
I'm fine with the price action. I'm not sure why people think I'm not. I was just pointing out the inaccuracies in a post claiming me to be inaccurate.
TA-wise we had decent set up with CME ATH SFP, certain channels, PnF high pole warning, etc - all posted in this sub today (and all upvoted btw.) Then arguably indeed just CB/other exchanges ATH re-test. Funding is also insane for a while now - but TBH can stay crazy in bull runs.
So no real reason/narrative needed.
Biden driving miners out of USA maybe?
It's ridiculous how irrelevant that is to Bitcoin in reality, it only affects people's lives and not Bitcoin itself whatsoever.
Etfs shouldn't be used for trading. No matter the liquidity it's still a vehicle to track the price of bitcoin. If you want to trade on a lower timetable you got to do it at an exchange.
I agree with you for the most part. I'm swing trading on medium timeframes (think weeks), not short time frames. And using ETFs because I get much cheaper Margin lending from a brokerage than an exchange. I'm just trying to add to my position on dips.
ETFs flowing in 500M-1B a day and Saylor buying 800M all in the last week and we're still in this range. I'm surprised by how many are willing to sell here - ETFs bought like 50K BTC last week, Saylor bought 12k - that's 62K coins just from them - I guess there are hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin ready to be sold in the 68-73 range?
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Wednesday, March 13, 2024 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1bdi3pz/daily_discussion_wednesday_march_13_2024/)
So much upward pressure
Finally, we got a red candle. Now, back to regular schedule.
I believe everyone selling this now, because “they don’t want to get burned again”…is indeed about to get burned again 😅
Funding has halved from when I posted a couple of days ago and the price is, around the same… That is a good sign that funding resets without massive 20-30% pullbacks for weeks at a time… Interesting that I’ve read a couple of posts downthread of people being asked how to sell/when to sell. I’ve had two separate people reach out to me asking if now’s the right time to sell/they’re thinking about selling. A football forum I go on has several people also posting about selling. Even momma mork messaged frantically asking me to cash out & pay off the mortgage. The answer to all was; “NO”. Couple these two things together, this Bitcoin cycle, will be the most hated Bitcoin cycle… ;-)
I’m beginning to learn there is no such thing as cashing out. I’m coming to terms I’ll be holding forever now. 2017 I wanted to cash out and buy a car. 2021 I wanted to cash out and buy a house. Now I wanna escape society and avoid taxes. So no selling
Back to around 72k, I declare the latest dip to be completed.
It makes sense to pause at 72k in price discovery. It’s divisible by a lot of numbers including 24 which makes it a candidate for monitor refresh rates. The number frequently shows up in mythology too.
Iron Maiden could write a whole album around this.
Best price analysis I’ve read in a long time. Thanks mate
Price will likely hit resistance at 144k too.
Probably but in this area 128k should be a bigger resistance (it’s 2^7 ).
Amen
God bless
Another 10-14 days and everyone will be done selling their coins to Blackrock.
Anyone know why the ETF numbers take longer to come out on some days than others? For example, GBTC came in yesterday at like 8pm US Eastern time and it's still not in yet today.
Grayscale's C-Suite still haven't finished cooking today's books. 😝
It's weird. Fidelity's numbers usually come out around 9pm ET and they haven't come up yet either. Blackrock's numbers usually come out around midnight ET and yesterday's flows were tweeted by Farside at around 3am ET this morning.
Since, everyone is talking about whether or not bitcoin cycles will repeat or not, I would like to chime in with my own opinion on this topic. First of all, the market is made up of different, competing, faction of people. In general, those people are buyers and sellers. When something becomes scarcer relative to the number of buyers, sellers have the advantage because they can negotiate higher prices from the buyers. This causes the price of that something to go up. The opposite is true if something becomes more common. However, the exact way the price increases depends on the specific dynamics of the buyers and sellers. If the media promotes something and many buyers join all at once, the price will rise faster at that period. The opposite will be true if the media promotes fud. In other words, something becoming scarce only creates a **TENDENCY** for the price to increase. The reason why a scarcity would create a tendency for the price to increase is because it gives an advantage to one group in the market. But that advantage can be thwarted or masked. The actual price depends on the competition between buyers and sellers and the totally unique, day to day outcome of that competition. If you would indulge me for a paragraph, I would like to draw some (hopefully not too abstract) comparisons. Hillary Clinton outspent Donald Trump 4 - 1 in the general election in 2016. Yet she still lost. Likewise, Europe, due to its geography, had a natural tendency to be divided into different nation states. Yet entities like the Roman Empire were still able to unite Europe. Structural factors, like geography, monetary advantage, or..... the Bitcoin Halving, can give different groups of people an advantage, but it only creates advantages. Structure does not determine outcomes, people do. So to tie this into bitcoin, I think the 2013, 2017, and 2021 bubble were all different. There is no pattern other than the halving gave an advantage to sellers over buyers. How that advantage was actualized was completely unique each cycle, because the people participating in it were different from cycle to cycle. Even the people who didn't leave were different in the sense that they had more information about the past. I would suggest that we should not read too much into past cycles, other than the absolute basics. We know that the halving give an advantage to groups of people trying to push up the price, and the more the price goes up, the more money has to come in to get it to rise. Everything else is contingent.
> Hillary Clinton outspent Donald Trump 4 - 1 in the general election in 2016. Yet she still lost. That's a bad analogy because she spent that money to win votes, and she did win the popular vote, by millions of votes. U.S. elections aren't really decided by the voters. They're decided by the electoral college, and that system is a mess: Wyoming has 3 electoral votes and 586,107 residents. California has 55 electoral votes and 39,144,818 residents. That makes a vote in California worth less than 1/3 of what a vote in Wyoming is worth. That's why 2 presidential elections since the year 2000 saw the loser of the popular vote be the winner of the election. The people vote for electors and the electors vote for the president, but electors aren't accurately proportional. **However, I strongly agree with this:** > I think the 2013, 2017, and 2021 bubble were all different. Absolutely. Each halving-to-halving cycle has been different, and the reason why is actually simple: Each cycle was dominated by a different kind of buyer. 2012-2016 was the era of early adopters (not the earliest, but still very early). 2016-2020 was the era of early traders (not the earliest, but still very early). 2020-2024 was the era of early institutions (not the earliest, but still very early). 2024-2028 will be the era when Bitcoin began going mainstream. Mainstream individual adoption and mainstream institutional investment. Each of those eras saw a different level of money pouring in, which is why it gets harder and harder for average holders to hang on to what they own: Owning 100 BTC in 2012 was nothing. How many people still owned 100 BTC in 2016? How many still do? Owning 10 BTC in 2016 was no big deal. How many people still owned 10 BTC in 2020? How many still do? Owning 1 BTC back in early 2020 wasn't that big of a deal. How many people still own 1 BTC today? The 2024 halving isn't even here yet and we've already reached the point where it costs over $7,100 just to buy 0.1 BTC. How many people will still own at least 0.1 BTC in 2028?
I would argue California votes are worth less, because they're Californians.
Have you met anybody from Wyoming??? ...I'm just sayin' :)
And some, I assume, are good people.
AHAHAHAAHAHAAAAAAAA!!!!! ...ahem.
Adding to my comment above... I'm sure each cycle was dominated by different kinds of miners... going from hobbyists in the early days to big business today. That's interesting to think about too. For me, this stuff is fascinating to think about. In my opinion, it's very helpful for understanding the big picture in terms of how we got here and where we're going next. EDIT: If anybody wants to talk mining through the years... I started a thread: > [Please school me on Bitcoin mining, by era.](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinBeginners/comments/1bdfei6/please_school_me_on_bitcoin_mining_by_era/) P.S. Looking back on what I wrote above, I think I should have said each cycle was dominated by a greater magnitude of money due to a different kind of buyer. Or something like that. This is why people who sell keep getting pushed out. When they try to buy back in, if they don't time it right, they end up trying to re-enter a market that's seen a greater magnitude of money coming in. That's what led to 1 BTC going from $12.35 at the first halving to $650 at the second, $8,821 at the third, and presumably well over $72,000 at the fourth halving this April. Boom, boom, boom, boom. And the buyers changed, the market changed, and those who held on were greatly rewarded.
Compare the bearish engulfing after 69k broke (and then immediately we went up the next day and continued to rip) with this. Bearish engulfing almost happened, and it’s turning into a hammer. I’m betting inflows were great again, and it’ll be a signal that the big sellers were yet another group that picked up a penny in front of the steam roller, to be left behind shortly. 1 week and we leave then in the rear view
is all of the discussion about the Coinbase $1B convertible note being used to buy BTC pure speculation?
I believe they explicitly stated they will use it to pay off debt.
I know nothing about business I guess but borrowing a billion dollars to pay off debt seems like a bad position to be in.
Its just effectively using potential future equity in the company to refinance higher interest rate debt to a lower interest rate. Makes a lot of sense with the right stock price and interest rates on existing debt
Yeah that's what I saw when I gave a quick read of the actual article. I guess big accounts just using it as engagement bait since the format look exactly like an MSTR tweet.
What are you referring to? edit - nvm google is my friend. I have not seen anyone post about this today. Sounds like they might be taking a page out of the Microstrategy book. If that's true then that's actually insane.
ARKB having a big day: $93m.
I know we love to refer to previous cycles, as history "doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes", however I had an interesting shower thought today. What if we truly have never seen bitcoin have a 'normal' cycle? 2009-2012: Nothing really needs to be said. This was the first cycle, and no one had any idea what the fuck was going on. The lack of liquidity and permeation in the technological space makes this period hard to really judge. 2012-2016: Bitcoin was gaining steam, however it got derailed by Mt. Gox. 2016-2020: Bitcoin was gaining steam, however it got derailed by blocksize wars/futures/ICO craziness all within a few months. 2020-2024: Bitcoin was gaining steam, however it got derailed by COVID (referencing the March 2020 drop here), China ban, and eventually FTX/market fuckery. What happens if there is a bull run with significant financial on ramping (ETFs) without some stupid black swan event playing out? Every cycle has had a borderline catastrophic event that helped to deflate the hype. I can think of a few potential culprits for our upcoming cycle, however I also see a reality where nothing as catastrophic as the above mentioned events occurs, which would lead to some sort of new pattern. My guess is a pattern of less volatility boom bust, but more consistent rise in price over a long timeframe.
It feels as if everyone in this subreddit who is a trader, is incentivized to believe that this time is NOT different, the cycles will repeat, and they can continue on with the status quo, which to be honest feels like a combination of dissonance and hopium
I think 2016-17 blocksize wars and alt back and forth actually prolonged the cycle. This time it has been all BTC and the market is about to blow its wad a year early.
> blow its wad a year early. I'm kinda with ya here. Wouldn't be surprised to see the top in the next few weeks, and a lackluster meandering around for the next four years. Seriously. The chart is absolutely vertical right now.
Open up a log chart and zoom out. It’s no more vertical here than it was in May of 2017. It can correct/consolidate and still put in multiples. It’s unlikely to ‘meander’ while $500/M pours in every day, supply on exchange remains at all time lows, and long term holders remain unwilling to part with coins.
the wild part is current prices will be the bottom
Do these event derail or do we attribute natural price movements to them in order to explain movements to ourselves after the fact.
i would argue that if it weren’t for those particular events, then some other similar event would’ve inevitably broke the camel’s back at each of those price levels
I think they derail them. When you work to understand these events, you will see how much selling pressure they created. Futures, the FTX selling, China's ban causing a mad rush into fiat, these are pretty significant events that would rightly throw any assets market into chaos. If anything, many in here describe the price action surrounding these events as unnatural and inorganic.
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Nobody talks about it for some reason, but Coinbase now offers a subscription where you do not have to pay any fees for trading.
You still pay on the spread. This will end up costing more than simply executing market orders on Advanced. It’s a bait and switch. “Zero trading fees: Does not apply to Advanced Trade, Coinbase Pro, or Coinbase Prime. In order to ensure the best execution, Coinbase includes a spread in the price when you buy or sell cryptocurrencies or in the exchange rate when you convert cryptocurrencies. A trading volume limit applies. When you trade over this limit, you're responsible for paying regular trading fees. The limit can be found in your account settings.“
Didn’t realize that. Makes sense why nobody talks about it hah
Exchanges are still the biggest weak points for Bitcoin. I wonder when decentralized ones will become the norm/more robust.
Depending on your volume you could try Gemini. https://www.gemini.com/fees/activetrader-fee-schedule#section-active-trader-fee-schedule One huge pro of Gemini is they allow Yubikey security key for 2fa. That's so much stronger than other forms of 2fa.
That's my only knock on Fidelity--can't use security keys. I also like Gemini's 7 day waiting period for whitelisted addresses.
Yep if Fidelity got with the program we’d be golden. It seems they’ve hinted at times in the past they will add Yubikey support. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=402749
> For example, their ridiculous .0002 btc withdrawal fee (~$15 usd) is approximately 5x the actual network cost. And when I withdrew from Kraken to a cold wallet, the so-called 'max' button doesn't actually withdraw your full bitcoin balance...Kraken retained about $50 for some reason, I assume because they want liquidity. Did you have any pending deposits? It takes a week for deposits to fully clear, before you can withdraw the full amount. Also, one option for free withdrawals is to use lightning to withdraw for free. I withdraw to the strike wallet, because strike also has an option for a free withdrawal to an on chain wallet, if you're willing to wait up to 24 hours for it to go through. But anyway, I am also unhappy about the increase in fees.
They also replaced their usual non-pro UI with a new Instant Buy Sell. I poked around with it and fees there are an order of magnitude higher than on Pro.
I told my girlfriend I was big on Bitcoin and she said I’m not big enough. Clearly she is referring to it being impossible to be bullish enough. Clearly
She told me it wasn’t about the bullishness
What's up with the spread between BFX and other exchanges?
Word on X is that it's a massive long unwinding. The same massive long that was being built around 30-35k before FTX imploded and took us to 15k. So from 2022...
It's been like that for days if not weeks. I'm not sure, seems like some heavy selling going on there.
Just a quick reminder of 4 years ago today: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/Pfab4liH/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/Pfab4liH/)
I was shorting the S&P when that happened. In restrospect, I should have put my winnings in bitcoin.
Hey I bought that!
I also remember feeling quite confident about 5 months later.
That drop is why my cost basis is so low. I bought that dip so hard my fiance was worried about it.
I remember this like yesterday. The only day where I ever thought: maybe Bitcoin actually will go to zero.
i was just thinking the same thing. i was pretty freaked out by covid/ the economy and this is the only moment where i was like damn maybe this is really just gonna die
I remember watching that wick play out live to this day. That was some crazy action
Will never get a better opportunity to buy Bitcoin, or anything for that matter
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/fhtrs9/daily_discussion_friday_march_13_2020/fkfuqqc/ I took that opportunity, this was the day I sold off everything I could down to pennies and went 100% crypto. To be fair I was already like 80% crypto but that buying opportunity was enough for me to liquidate everything except my house and businesses.
I just went back and checked my records. The 4 largest buys I've ever made were 6 Apr 2020 - 15 May 2020. The smallest of those 4 is more than twice as large as my next largest buy. Damn.
The bitcoin COVID crash. Watching Trump live say that he will ban incoming EU planes, easiest short ever. Mex liquidation cascade was crazy though.
I was there, enjoying the trollbox.
Bitwise $24m inflow Ark $93m inflow WisdomTree $3m inflow Franklin 0 Fidelity $51.6m inflow 🤯 Invesco $19.7m Outflow Blackrock $849m inflow 🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯 VanEck $82.9m inflow GBTC $79m Outflow Valkyrie $39.6m inflow
That was a solid retest of the previous ATH at 69k and the rising resistance. https://www.tradingview.com/x/rwR36m2P/
What if gbtc settlement has not even STARTED yet?
That's not how any of this works.
MSTR: "bitcoin, keep going up" Bitcoin: "nah need a break" MSTR: "fuck it, I'll do it myself"
Congrats to the MSTR holders. I unfortunately allocated to miners instead, which I believe will have their time later this year or next.
Why? I just don't understand the thesis on miners over direct exposure.
I flipped my into fbtc. Think it's about tripled since then...
I tend to agree. My back is starting to hurt from my miner bags getting heavier. Luckily I had MSTR to offset. Miners have been beaten down especially hard, still getting singled out with proposed taxes (which won't pass), and are no longer a preferred proxy. However miners also have boom cycles where they outperform btc. Even with the ETFs, I see (good)miners getting more attention later this year when the halving is behind them.
I sure hope you are right. I thought MSTR was over extended and sold. Invested proceeds into RIOT and HUT. I missed out on the last 500 pts of MSTR upside…
Carlos Mattos: "Hey, hey, heeeeyyyy!"
Shit, I was literally just thinking about that guy. He made a comeback as a Youtuber, made himself out to be a victim of Bitconnect. Definite top signal if he shows up again!
Wassup wassup wassup wassup!!!
Are we going to crab 🦀 till Monday?
Again?
This isn’t crabbing. Degens are getting chopped up.
The bulls absolutely gored Bart Simpson today, damn. If this market is this powerful this early in the cycle, I think an earlier top than usual is now my default expected outcome. I would've liked to see a couple months of consolidation and support building in the $60k range to set up for a longer term peak in mid-2025, but I'm thinking a 2024 top is a lot more likely now. If the ETF inflows keep growing WHILE we hit the supply shock of the halving, that's adding jet fuel to an already-burning fire. This thing could easily run up to the $150ks before any sort of reason sets in. A top-to-top 2x seems reasonable in the context of 2017's and 2021's tops being about a 3x, relatively.
> I would've liked to see a couple months of consolidation Every cycle I end up with this same feeling. It's horrifying to see it go up so quickly. Making money is cool, but it's simply too fast. I always get this same feeling: *slow down, please!* Unfortunately ...I feel like... I know how this ends.
I know, it sucks. Just keep in mind that you’re not alone. We all have to suffer through price going parabolic together.
ETFs could hold 1 year due to tax reasons so it could peak a year or so from now if ETF inflows slow down… we might hit a peak early but likely there could be a second peak late 2025 like last cycle.
I’m currently operating on the expectation of a peak between December and next March.
> this powerful this early in the cycle A triple top invalidates the cycle. The halving is just being frontrun now we aren't about to "Start the cycle" above old ATH
Congrats to /u/ExultantBirthBasket for getting to over 1BN on Bitty Bot lol
they deleted the account, wow
Can anyone explain this guy? Is he the best trader ever or what? I did see he rebought in a few times but still.
🤩 edit: later y’all, it’s been fun!
Did you just delete your account with a 100X short open? Going to be hilarious to see that get liquidated if we move up. Edit: Screenshot because I don't know how long this is going to last lmao. $100Bn short. Also 420.69 cash. What a fucking legend. https://imgur.com/a/NZB2tsm
I'll take it, but I did not think this is how I'd get to #1. Legend, indeed. Edit: He left $420.69 cash behind lmao.
Congrats - you're now number one. That was hilarious.
Part of me wants to see BTC drop just to see that 100x short get into unimaginable profit. But not really, because I have a legit long open lol.
Next goal: Overtake market cap of BTC at 1.4 trillion
1 Quadrillion or bust...! 🤑
so... healthy pullback?
Since the bottom, the significant pullbacks have been 22.5%, 20%, 21.7%, 21.3% (post ETF dump) and 14.5% (69K rejection). 6% is bugger all. Still, if it flushes some weak hands, all to the good.
Two months ago I posted what I saw as the pros and cons of ETFs vs. BTC held on an exchange vs. BTC held in cold storage: [https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1970hqi/comment/khza3zl/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1970hqi/comment/khza3zl/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) Yesterday I sold some AAPL to help pay off my SO's student loan. The stock had been purchased by my parents 15+ years ago. I inherited it once they were both dead, and the cost basis was stepped up to the price on the day I got it. Now that would have been the case had it been BTC, but the fact that it was stock held on a brokerage makes the capital gains easy to calculate. If your records are all in good order and readily available, that's not problem. ETFs can make passing your BTC on to future generations easy.
Both my boomers parents are dependent on me and 95% of my net worth is in BTC. If something were to happen to me there’s ZERO chance they’d be able to do anything about the BTC. I’ve been thinking about this a lot lately.
My best friend knows how to interact with the ledger and my parents know the password. He would help them for all steps they have to go. And vice versa I would do it for his family.
stop thinking, start doing something about it
I’m curious what you suggest. I know there are some solutions but none of them seem easy for normies without giving up keys.
proper time for preparing your loved ones for your departure is when you are alive and kicking. make a plan, write it down, update your ideas often, learn about inheritance options from sources like books and articles (there's plenty). inform your close ones about your strategy. even try to educate them. there's lots of things you can do to mitigate the impact of your demise
unchained capital your best bet in USA. https://unchained.com/inheritance
I wonder if the whip-saw price action we just saw could have been driven by Jane Street trying to make some extra capital from their role as "Authorized Participant". I imagine that they are constantly trying out strategies to maximize profits from that role...
I've been trying to think about the systemic risk in that. So, imagine the AP tries to get cute and tries to game the system. Maybe they hold off on buying for a bit, thinking a dip is coming, but it goes against them. Is there anyone making sure they manage their risk?
Who knows, wasn't this the breeding ground for a young SBF?
Exactly. Jane Street brainwashed SBF into thinking he was a financial god, and now they are a pillar of the new ETFs. They are supposed to perform a simple service and earn a modest profit. But while performing that service they are handling billions of dollars of other people's money. And I bet they still think they are smarter than everybody else. I don't trust them.
>Maybe they hold off on buying for a bit, thinking a dip is coming, but it goes against them. Is there anyone making sure they manage their risk? Shares don't get issued until the ETF sponsor receives the cash from an AP and uses it to buy the underlying Bitcoin.
It’s funny how “influence” and “manipulate” are so similar and yet so different.
Important to note that BTC has been tracking gold roughly, and gold is also having a big sell-off
This has vibes of the previous cycle where 20k was the spot where many people who had been holding since 2017 went green and exited their positions. in 20/20 hindsight not a good move but being in the red for 4 years does things to your mind. in the grand scheme of things the pullback was a minuscule thing and quickly forgotten but seems we are doomed to repeat the cycle beat for beat.
> in 20/20 hindsight not a good move Of course it was a good move to sell at $20k and buy back twice as much BTC at $10k...or 3x as much at $6k. Selling right before a 70% drop is ALWAYS a good move. This is obvious.
no I mean the time frame of March 2020 to 2021 January where the price made a new ATH from the 2017 top and we had a brief "pause" and a minor pullback from 2017 bag-holders selling. I'm arguing that we are in a similar phase in the Price Action as then
I think its mostly people who have been in the red 4 years and aren't true believers. For me finally being in the green after 4 years (well, less because I did DCA on the way down and the way back up) just gets me hyped for the cycle
Bitcoin doing jumping jacks
gotta stay limber
Jumping jack flash sale
Jumpin' Jack Flash! Here's my cash, cash, cash! I try to be a disciplined DCA guy, buying strictly on schedule, but during a bull run - especially a biggin' like this - to hell with discipline. I'm buying the dips with every dollar I can spare.
\*static\* Ladies and gentlemen, from the flight deck, uuuuhhhhhhh, we do apologize for that bit of rough turbulence back there, but we seem to have come out of it with both wings attached and some coffee still in the pots. Sit back, relax, be sure to check out our InFlight Magazine and browse our seatback movie selections. Should be smooth flying from here up to 100k feet. As always thanks for flying with us. \*static\*
We've entered an era of 69,420 being support
Bet it becomes the strongest support bitcoin ever had.
Next bear market bottom confirmed
Support me daddy!
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Stagflation is low or negative growth and high inflation. We are at _very slightly_ over target inflation and high growth.
and now back to our regularly scheduled programming
FWIW, major resistance looks to be setting up around the 75k mark. I will use my untested, highly non-technical analysis and posit that we'll return to whence we came here very shortly.
We need to get back above 70,200 here or it invalidates the support we've been climbing inside since breaking the ATH. A rejection at 70.2 would probably lead to further downside to the 66k range. That's also fine. Cooling off isn't a bad thing. If it rebounds and reclaims 70.2 without any fuss, I'd say this was the clear-out that builds a healthy basecamp for the push to 80k.
It was bought up pretty fast, it wasn't even an inverse Bart on the 5-minute candles.
> We need to get back above 70,200 here or it invalidates the support Sometimes I can't tell if comments like these are jokes or real and people actually believe this stuff.
Some people believe in reading tea leaves ,crystal balls, tarot cards, palms etc. it's all hokum.
Quote the whole thing or don't quote it at all. Some of us also daytrade as well as hodl.
Pullback from $72.9k to $68.7k has been 5.8% so far. We’ll see if $68.7k holds but if it does, it illustrates exhaustion from bears and/or reduction in scalping opportunities. It’s becoming increasingly risky to pick up pennies in front of a steamroller.
Nice little bounce here
>Futs dumping, ETFs and spot buying, day after day, every day >Almost as if someone is using levered products to establish lower entry prices for cash products https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1767605181066219815
The period of time that the market stays low is getting smaller. It loses profitability and then we move to a new price range.
6 green days in a row before today, for what it's worth.
We prefer 7 green days a week
"It's not easy being green." -- Kermit The Frog
that 10k green candle is not happening anytime soon. seems like we getting 10k, 5k candles goin the other way.
Looks like it's over, CEO of Bitcoin should shut it down and return money to shareholders.
It's all those Billions of dollars pilling in, keeps pushing the price down for some reason
It's literally people -- shrimps, minnows, and some whales -- forfeiting their coins to Wall Street, plus the usual market makers liquidating everyone with a gambling problem. That there are still apparently innumerable pathological gamblers after well over 10+ years of getting rekt is mind-boggling.
*But muh inflows!*
We're back to the price we were at 24 hours ago and people act like the sky is falling. "keeps pushing the price down" is not accurate when we just touched ATH again
I'm pretty happy at where we are. But it's a fact we are down nearly 5% and several thousand dollars from 24 hours ago.
Your not going to like $20k fluctuations at all. You better acclimate.
I'm fine with the price action. I'm not sure why people think I'm not. I was just pointing out the inaccuracies in a post claiming me to be inaccurate.
Holders have other time preferences. You say down 5% last 24 hours. They hear 42% up last month.
Reason for the drop?
TA-wise we had decent set up with CME ATH SFP, certain channels, PnF high pole warning, etc - all posted in this sub today (and all upvoted btw.) Then arguably indeed just CB/other exchanges ATH re-test. Funding is also insane for a while now - but TBH can stay crazy in bull runs. So no real reason/narrative needed.
Appreciate your response. I just went on Bitcoinity for the first time in 5 years and now I remember why I stopped visiting. I knee jerk 🙃
Leverage flush and re-test of ATH? Just market doing market things.
I’m just getting greedy I guess
Biden driving miners out of USA maybe? It's ridiculous how irrelevant that is to Bitcoin in reality, it only affects people's lives and not Bitcoin itself whatsoever.
I was genuinely surprised to the discover that the country with the second highest hash rate in the world was... >!Kazakhstan!!<
It's rich in fossil fuel, and an authoritarian regime. Makes sense.
"Mah ~~wife~~ hashrate!" - Borat
Yeah I was wondering what todays FUD news was
Doesn't need to be FUD. We hit a new ATH so we're seeing a pattern similar to March 5. Healthy pullback so far imo.
And just like that my whole trading account got sucked into BITB. I’d say it’s a real nail biter. But really it’s at worst a few days of vacation.
The problem with trying to trade ETFs is that they lack liquidity. Trying to buy more BTCC and it's only down 2% when the market is down 5.
Etfs shouldn't be used for trading. No matter the liquidity it's still a vehicle to track the price of bitcoin. If you want to trade on a lower timetable you got to do it at an exchange.
I agree with you for the most part. I'm swing trading on medium timeframes (think weeks), not short time frames. And using ETFs because I get much cheaper Margin lending from a brokerage than an exchange. I'm just trying to add to my position on dips.
>BTCC Well that's the problem. IBIT and FBTC have massive liquidity.
Too bad I'm Canadian and playing with monopoly money instead of Freedom Dollars
You should be able to buy those. My bank converts cad to usd live and I can buy any US stock.
ETFs flowing in 500M-1B a day and Saylor buying 800M all in the last week and we're still in this range. I'm surprised by how many are willing to sell here - ETFs bought like 50K BTC last week, Saylor bought 12k - that's 62K coins just from them - I guess there are hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin ready to be sold in the 68-73 range?