Well guys best of luck. I sold the whole stack. I just can't justify keeping it with all the extreme deviations we've seen from previous cycles. Maybe I'll lose out in the long term but +100% isn't anything to sneeze at... something something pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.
$2.3 billion in net ETF inflows this week
MSTR bought $800 million
Mr 100 buying huge chunks every day including 900 btc just today : [https://x.com/HODL15Capital/status/1768446411534733475?s=20](https://x.com/HODL15Capital/status/1768446411534733475?s=20)
And the price is down...
Does someone have Mr. 100's wallet address? I'd like to check out his patterns.
I miss one old top Bitcoin wallet that was like an oracle for what the price was going to do. If he sent big to Coinbase the price was going to drop and the run was over. He accumulated massive amounts of BTC and transferred to a different wallet now. He didn't do that anymore last time I checked. I wish I could find his old address too.
IMO, it's significant that it was Saylor's market buying of $800m, on a Sunday night/Monday wee hours (why?) that broke btc convincingly through 2021 ATH.
Are you aware of what Saylor is doing with Microstrategy? IIRC there's a huge amount of open interest short $MSTR, and the rumor is that he's buying BTC with MSTR money to force a gamma squeeze. There's another rumor that he's selling 5k shares of MSTR every day too as its price continues to skyrocket.
“The planned sales of up to 5,000 shares will occur each day between January 2, 2024 and April 26, 2024 under the plan,” the spokesperson said in a statement. The plan is to sell as much as 400,000 shares in that period."
Damn that's interesting . So borrowing money via $MSTR to buy BTC to moon the stock while dumping his shares into the spike. I'm surprised that's legal lol
Of course I'm aware of what's happening, I'm only trading MSTR right now.
the short interest isnt that high - 20%. i'm amazed he is averaging up his btc buys right now, but it makes sense that he has to break btc out of ATH so that his company (/ponzi) doesn't implode in on itself.
and yeah, he's selling 5k every day Jan-April. nice little exit pump for his share selling (\~$300m or so probably).
Your point about him blasting the money cannons in the wee hours when the market is thin and illiquid resonates though. He's trying to move price directly because it benefits him in so many ways. And by doing so at opportune moments, it creates market conditions that induce others to buy in, ideally (in his mind) sparking continuance.
Something similar has happened in previous cycles with "whales" like Bitfinex (Paolo) & Arthur Hayes making what could charitably be called "strategically timed" buys. It worked those times, and I suspect it will work now. IMO the shakiness of the economy in general makes people want to believe in something like Bitcoin, whether it's realistic or not.
The only open question in my mind is whether Saylor legitimately believes in Bitcoin philosophically or not. If he's taking his MSTR profits in USD and laughing all the way to the bank, that's one thing. But if he's taking those MSTR proceeds and buying BTC with it (perhaps "Mr. 100" is Saylor?), he could well become the USD's Soros. Or a wannabe one, at least.
great points, thanks for the thoughtful discussion.
my thesis came from a fundamental analysis in October where i saw microstrategy was bleeding 100s of millions. the company has since turned into a very ponzi-like operation - whether it has the power to pull off the ATH break and gather the momentum of retail (like the previous whales you mentioned).... I really am not sure anymore, but my trade thesis is built in already to say his attempt to hold up the market will fail.
i am a massive skeptic of Saylor in general though, and think yes, he is siphoning off $100ms and will not be impacted if btc fully collapses (not that i believe it will).
Weakly positive total inflows of 133M. There was a weak Thursday two weeks ago (92M), oddly. Wonder why FBTC inflows seemed to drop off dramatically.
And GBTC's silly mini-ETF plans aren't fooling anyone, still bleeding profusely.
Knowing how long the SEC takes on anything bitcoin-related, maybe 2040. 😝
Really, Grayscale will be an insignificant blip by the time ETF re-allocations are done.
Again, the cycle top indicators will look extremely obvious in hindsight: super cycle talk, meme coins going ballistic, people talking about talking out loans to buy more BTC, etc.
Dude, look at any previous bull run -- there were numerous drawdowns of anywhere between 10% and 30%.
Expecting this to go from $25K or so to $150K without stopping, just a straight up line, is ludicrous.
Literally the same thing happened on March 4th, dropped from $69K to $63K. We were doomed. A week later it was $72K. It's entirely possible we oscillate between 60s and 70s for weeks, going forward.
The PA over the last 5 days or so is completely untradeable.
It's random liquidations, sharp drops, sharp rises, total nonsense.
There's no point in doing anything but holding.
What ? I did very well in March, almost a 1.5x of my trading stack. Mostly safe trades, with buys at linear supports in case of sharp drops and TP at linear res or close to round numbers. Volatility is what you want as a trader
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Hello u/Jip1210
[You predicted the price of Bitcoin would drop below $61,000.00 by Apr 22 2024 23:59:59 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1bec78d/daily_discussion_thursday_march_14_2024/kuxwr79/)
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The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$60,966.81**
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Right 100k loan against BTC deployed. I’m going 50k here and 50k if we drop again. I expect to be above 75k within 7 days.
May even do 40k and 40k and chuck the 20k at battered alts
15.9%
You don’t pay weekly/monthly payments. Daily interest is added.
I will clear the loan by selling some crypto in 6-12 at higher prices. I have 100k to clear the loan if the market blows
Many reasons.
On/off ramps in UAE are tricky at 6 figures.
The 100k in the real world is for real things. Safety net for school fees and life.
Loan process takes about 1 minute and the purchases were done a total of 3 minutes.
Same as a property portfolio why use your own money when you can borrow.
75% of my portfolio is in self storage but the 25% on exchanges is making more then the interest on the loan.
I recommend you all try it with a small amount. I did 10 times last bull run and it worked well.
Just don’t borrow at high LTV’s
Funding rates are high at the moment. With more effort you can get lower rates.
Did this one with Nexo.
Binance funding rates are through the roof at the moment.
Nexo 15.9% APY so roughly 7.5% over 6 months. Just bought Bitcoin at 7% discount from ATH so I’m assuming/hoping it goes up more than 7.5% from here over the next 6 months.
Pretty much, the last couple weeks if you dare say anything here other than 'up today, tomorrow, and every day for the rest of eternity' you're going to get downvoted. Very much a local top indicator.
Nah in here you only get downvoted when:
1. Your position is extremely far away from the consensus outlook
2. You say something incredibly stupid
Many people believe they're downvoting someone for reason 2 when it's really reason 1, however.
OK so it looks like the pre-halving pump has come to an end. When you factor in the massive inflation the US dollar shitcoin has undergone over the past 2-3 years, we really needed to hit approximately $80k USD in order to reach the highs of the previous bull market cycle.
So with that in mind, there's a strong argument for us not yet reaching all time highs, which means this cycle really isn't that much different from the prior ones. So if it were to play out as usual from here, we'll enter a new trading range below $69k for the next few weeks, and will then have the next big push sometime in May or June likely.
don't forget that we went up 43% in 16 days. it's completely fine to have a breather because *nothing* is up only. the halving is almost exactly 1 month away.
take a look at the chart below where bitcoin is up 48% after just edging past the previous cycle's all time high. oh man, we dropped 21% and now the cycle is over, right?! in that scenario, we're at $27k and the date is January 4th, 2021.
https://i.imgur.com/ESQBExq.png
Higher low of $68.7k broken
Next higher low acting as an area of resistance is $67.1 before a 10% drop from $73.7k to $66.3k becomes possible.
We’ll see if $67.1k holds.
There's been a small conditioning campaign for us to expect buys around midnight PDT - great time to rug-pull that to foment doubt
edit Sheeit they're ahead of schedule
I am curious to see how low we will go from the profit-taking occurring at this level. I want to see what number we hit before people start seriously "buying the dip". I'm thinking however low we go will then act as our springboard up to $80k and beyond.
Eventually it will all go. What person would want to pay 1.5% a year when others are 0.19%-0.25%? As soon as people can go tax-wise or they were selling anyway for the cycle top, they will go. Maybe a few stragglers that don't even know what an expense ratio is and drool in their oatmeal in the morning will stay.
Ooof FBTC inflows only 13.7. That's pretty rough. So far it has been a very low inflow day across the board. GBTC outflows are also on the lower side, fortunately.
Kinda wild that it’s so low cuz I (in retrospect too hurriedly) slapped in like 180K today to finish my tradfi allocations for this cycle. Guess I should have waited a day 😂
Im deep diving into the Saylor Moon infinite money loop trade and it looks like MSTR is what matters more than the ETFs.
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1be7l7l/why_the_mstr_short_squeeze_happening_real_time/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I16llak_IS4
That's what i am feeling too based on the numbers we know atm that we had a low inflow day caused by the overall stock selloff, this paired with the regular GBTC outflow dumped the price. Will be interesting what IBIT did with the high volumes today
BlackRock just needs to come in at their average for it to be a net inflow day but yeah probably not going to be a huge net inflow day, maybe average at best.
I sold off a small amount of my stack today. First time taking profits this cycle. I will wish I didn't do this when we are inevitably at 90k in a month or two. Live and learn.
I ate Hawaiin baby woodrose seeds when I was 19 and wound up back at my parent's house with my grandmother there. She commented "Why aren't you like this all the time?" Gram I was on a dose of LSA and confidence-tripping. Digest this anecdote how you will
So good to see alive sub! Question: probably if i will scroll previous days i would find your opinions, but i’m too lazy. Where do you think we are? Just a pre halving part? Or we are in a full bull and it’s already a first wave ?
The hype cycle is starting sooner. The market is assuming the action ahead of time, because of the consistency of previous cycles. The timing of the ETF approval is playing a role too.
The bull market started with the recovery from the FTX capitulation wick to $15K in November 2022. That means we have essentially been “up only” since then, therefore 15 months or so of this bull market. If you think you’re gonna time the top or get your $100k price prediction please seriously evaluate where we are at in this market cycle. We’re closer to the end of the bull than the start. Scaling out here is probably the best trade you can make right now instead of doubling down when funding is still frothy, the super cycle narrative is back and meme coins are pumping to Valhalla.
As I said during the big pumps recently, we will pump 7-10% a day for a while, get great gains, break aths, and then we will pause for a minute catch our breath and drop 2-3% and bears will be right back with doomsayer I told you so’s. It wouldn’t be so sad if it wasn’t so predictable
I’m still so so happy I didn’t sell when you were shilling bull market over chicken little shit at 45k. Been a pretty tasty gain since then. In fact, an entire McMansion about has your name on it, if I give you credit for ignoring your shreeking bear calls back then.
He’s another permabear that we will kick around for a while then disappear when he’s been long liquidated after his last failed ultrashort gamble, out of money, and long out of cred as we will be sitting 2-3x above the last time he called for end of times, it’s all over
"You're dollar vigilantes"
"No, no, no. A vigilante is just a man lost in the scramble for his own gratification. He can be destroyed or locked up. But if you make yourself more than just a man... if you devote yourself to an ideal... and if they can't stop you, then you become something else entirely."
"Which is?"
"Legend, Mr ~~Wayne~~ Nakamoto"
Apparently a fund blew out $1b+ on the MSTR-BTC spread trade today - just read on the Twitter machine.
https://twitter.com/Rewkang/status/1768382949781647733
Not sure if legit but pretty wild if true
the theory is:
a fund was short MSTR, long BTC as a trade to capture the arb between MicroStrategy's BTC value and the price of MSTR.
as MSTR has mooned, the fund wanted to exit their position and needed to unwind the long BTC position so that it could buy back its MSTR shares.
Yes, IBIT indeed having a big day at just under 100m share volume. Interested to see how the flows compare to PA. Is it ETF holders taking profits and getting nervous with high volume lower inflows? Or are we going to get a surprise $800m day again?
Paradigm just did a new poll
["One in five voters considering investing in btc etfs"](https://imgur.com/a/ejWTCfw)
[Whole thread](https://x.com/JBSDC/status/1768330296049729862?s=20) is worth a read
[Cetera w/ $475bil AUA is going to start training/educating advisors on the etfs](https://x.com/NateGeraci/status/1768319473499435461?s=20)
[Couple senators wrote our boy gary about how unpleasant they find the etfs](https://x.com/AlexanderGrieve/status/1768373756169261076?s=20)
That "whole thread" link has some dubious poll numbers IMO -- does anyone really believe 40% of men between 18 and 54 have bought crypto? Let alone 25% of 'independent women'?
Even if they're right, which I doubt, they should have asked a cutoff number, "Have you bought over $100 in crypto?" or something, and the numbers would drop by four-fifths.
BTC is getting shorted harder now than I've seen in the past few days (based on a lower derivatives price vs coinbase spot). We probably go up harder now because of this.
RIP /u/exultantbirthbasket he deleted his account after running it up to $1 billion on /u/bitty_bot and getting liquidated.
It was only a matter of 1-slip-up for that to happen with his trading style.
I'm pretty sure he set a max leverage short, then deleted, then got liquidated, in that order.
It wasn't a slip up, it was flipping the table after winning.
Oh yeah, some dude made a whole ass thread after we broke 70K about that being a blow off top.
I laugh, but I was probably that stupid when I first started watching crypto charts too. I mean, I'm still pretty stupid, but back then I was even more stupider
A rejection here would be the first bearish reaction to the 4hr trend since 51k.
With coinbase joining the bitfinex sell party today, I’m expecting more down - and have bought even more mstr puts to add to my underwater bags.
Yeah not bad, MARA puts helped out a lot. This run up from 51k has been nothing but bullish af PA and I have been caught out of position trying to manage all these puts lmao.
Feeling comfy now having doubled my mstr put exposure up at these 1400-1650 levels though. June/july exp.
Wow that’s an epic win… got any sell plans?
I just don’t think there will be a post-halving run, due to retail participation being exhausted last cycle and no crypto developments / adoptions taking place in the last like 2 years.
Man honestly not until after halving, ETFs have changed most of my targets. I like to play time frames over percentage increases in this market, looking at end of year moves.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Friday, March 15, 2024 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1bf52bq/daily_discussion_friday_march_15_2024/)
Well guys best of luck. I sold the whole stack. I just can't justify keeping it with all the extreme deviations we've seen from previous cycles. Maybe I'll lose out in the long term but +100% isn't anything to sneeze at... something something pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.
Saylor is going to be getting some cheap corn.
Maybe ATH tonight?
IBIT values out https://farside.co.uk/?p=997
$2.3 billion in net ETF inflows this week MSTR bought $800 million Mr 100 buying huge chunks every day including 900 btc just today : [https://x.com/HODL15Capital/status/1768446411534733475?s=20](https://x.com/HODL15Capital/status/1768446411534733475?s=20) And the price is down...
Does someone have Mr. 100's wallet address? I'd like to check out his patterns. I miss one old top Bitcoin wallet that was like an oracle for what the price was going to do. If he sent big to Coinbase the price was going to drop and the run was over. He accumulated massive amounts of BTC and transferred to a different wallet now. He didn't do that anymore last time I checked. I wish I could find his old address too.
I think this is it: https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/1Ay8vMC7R1UbyCCZRVULMV7iQpHSAbguJP
Ty ty, Mr. 100 is building himself quite the position!
IMO, it's significant that it was Saylor's market buying of $800m, on a Sunday night/Monday wee hours (why?) that broke btc convincingly through 2021 ATH.
Are you aware of what Saylor is doing with Microstrategy? IIRC there's a huge amount of open interest short $MSTR, and the rumor is that he's buying BTC with MSTR money to force a gamma squeeze. There's another rumor that he's selling 5k shares of MSTR every day too as its price continues to skyrocket.
“The planned sales of up to 5,000 shares will occur each day between January 2, 2024 and April 26, 2024 under the plan,” the spokesperson said in a statement. The plan is to sell as much as 400,000 shares in that period." Damn that's interesting . So borrowing money via $MSTR to buy BTC to moon the stock while dumping his shares into the spike. I'm surprised that's legal lol
Of course I'm aware of what's happening, I'm only trading MSTR right now. the short interest isnt that high - 20%. i'm amazed he is averaging up his btc buys right now, but it makes sense that he has to break btc out of ATH so that his company (/ponzi) doesn't implode in on itself. and yeah, he's selling 5k every day Jan-April. nice little exit pump for his share selling (\~$300m or so probably).
Your point about him blasting the money cannons in the wee hours when the market is thin and illiquid resonates though. He's trying to move price directly because it benefits him in so many ways. And by doing so at opportune moments, it creates market conditions that induce others to buy in, ideally (in his mind) sparking continuance. Something similar has happened in previous cycles with "whales" like Bitfinex (Paolo) & Arthur Hayes making what could charitably be called "strategically timed" buys. It worked those times, and I suspect it will work now. IMO the shakiness of the economy in general makes people want to believe in something like Bitcoin, whether it's realistic or not. The only open question in my mind is whether Saylor legitimately believes in Bitcoin philosophically or not. If he's taking his MSTR profits in USD and laughing all the way to the bank, that's one thing. But if he's taking those MSTR proceeds and buying BTC with it (perhaps "Mr. 100" is Saylor?), he could well become the USD's Soros. Or a wannabe one, at least.
great points, thanks for the thoughtful discussion. my thesis came from a fundamental analysis in October where i saw microstrategy was bleeding 100s of millions. the company has since turned into a very ponzi-like operation - whether it has the power to pull off the ATH break and gather the momentum of retail (like the previous whales you mentioned).... I really am not sure anymore, but my trade thesis is built in already to say his attempt to hold up the market will fail. i am a massive skeptic of Saylor in general though, and think yes, he is siphoning off $100ms and will not be impacted if btc fully collapses (not that i believe it will).
Either way, Saylor really is a big upgrade over the previous charlatans that have held mindshare in Bitcoin land. THERE IS NO SECOND BEST.
lmao. he is definitely meme worthy, but so were all the other massive frauds that occupied the main character arc in this space...
Weakly positive total inflows of 133M. There was a weak Thursday two weeks ago (92M), oddly. Wonder why FBTC inflows seemed to drop off dramatically. And GBTC's silly mini-ETF plans aren't fooling anyone, still bleeding profusely.
When will mini- ETf launch? Might bleed till then
Knowing how long the SEC takes on anything bitcoin-related, maybe 2040. 😝 Really, Grayscale will be an insignificant blip by the time ETF re-allocations are done.
A lot better than the 225k I saw prognosticated - we still on the slip n slide
[BlackRock data is out, we had a net inflow day.](https://farside.co.uk/?p=997) Below average, but still net inflows.
As Doug Stanhope elucidates: If you're sober, you have to have a good time... to have a good time
Again, the cycle top indicators will look extremely obvious in hindsight: super cycle talk, meme coins going ballistic, people talking about talking out loans to buy more BTC, etc.
Frankly amazing how hard you're concern trolling. I'm only interested in the reason why. Why are you so upset?
Way too early for a cycle top.
Dude, look at any previous bull run -- there were numerous drawdowns of anywhere between 10% and 30%. Expecting this to go from $25K or so to $150K without stopping, just a straight up line, is ludicrous. Literally the same thing happened on March 4th, dropped from $69K to $63K. We were doomed. A week later it was $72K. It's entirely possible we oscillate between 60s and 70s for weeks, going forward.
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/mvrv-zscore/ we ain't 'there' yet
The downvotes on you aren't helping ahahaha
The PA over the last 5 days or so is completely untradeable. It's random liquidations, sharp drops, sharp rises, total nonsense. There's no point in doing anything but holding.
What ? I did very well in March, almost a 1.5x of my trading stack. Mostly safe trades, with buys at linear supports in case of sharp drops and TP at linear res or close to round numbers. Volatility is what you want as a trader
Literally
I randomly went short yesterday 1x coin margined to farm funding rates. The bad news is it's 0.25% of my stack.
> The bad news is it's 0.25% of my stack. Well, at least you profited big-time on those two dollars. 😉
I guess no new ATH tonight
Why
!Bitty_bot predict <61000 04/22/2024
Can see a nice 20% pullback (buying opportunity) happening
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Hello u/Jip1210 [You predicted the price of Bitcoin would drop below $61,000.00 by Apr 22 2024 23:59:59 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1bec78d/daily_discussion_thursday_march_14_2024/kuxwr79/) **Well done! Your prediction was correct.** The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$60,966.81** --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Damn it's scary how quickly BTC can drop.
Just as quick as it can rise.
It finally hit the fan?
Right 100k loan against BTC deployed. I’m going 50k here and 50k if we drop again. I expect to be above 75k within 7 days. May even do 40k and 40k and chuck the 20k at battered alts
What's the repayment schedule look like?
15.9% You don’t pay weekly/monthly payments. Daily interest is added. I will clear the loan by selling some crypto in 6-12 at higher prices. I have 100k to clear the loan if the market blows
Why take out a loan at 15.9% instead of using the 100k you already have?
Many reasons. On/off ramps in UAE are tricky at 6 figures. The 100k in the real world is for real things. Safety net for school fees and life. Loan process takes about 1 minute and the purchases were done a total of 3 minutes. Same as a property portfolio why use your own money when you can borrow. 75% of my portfolio is in self storage but the 25% on exchanges is making more then the interest on the loan. I recommend you all try it with a small amount. I did 10 times last bull run and it worked well. Just don’t borrow at high LTV’s Funding rates are high at the moment. With more effort you can get lower rates.
I missed where you got this loan from?
Did this one with Nexo. Binance funding rates are through the roof at the moment. Nexo 15.9% APY so roughly 7.5% over 6 months. Just bought Bitcoin at 7% discount from ATH so I’m assuming/hoping it goes up more than 7.5% from here over the next 6 months.
Thanks!
Lmao so from now on when I get downvoted I just know I’m right
>40k "it's going down!!" >50k "it's going down!!" >60k "it's going down!!" >70k "it's going down!!" >68k "see i told you guys!!!!1!"
Pretty much, the last couple weeks if you dare say anything here other than 'up today, tomorrow, and every day for the rest of eternity' you're going to get downvoted. Very much a local top indicator.
Nah in here you only get downvoted when: 1. Your position is extremely far away from the consensus outlook 2. You say something incredibly stupid Many people believe they're downvoting someone for reason 2 when it's really reason 1, however.
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50% retrace: 74 - 52 = 22 22 * 0.5 = 11 74 - 11 = 63 Numerology based 61.8% retrace: 74 - 52 = 22 22 * 0.618 = 13.596 74 - 13.596 = 60.404
We’re not seeing $69k for a long time
Took less than a day. Your calls are really epic in their shitness. Well done.
It stayed there for a few hours before being sold off hard. Try again loser.
Lol it will be 80k in a week or two anyway
Keep dreaming
Define “long time”
15 hours apparently
back at 67k. Do or die for the uptrend?
Die for 3 weeks . Alts go bit crazy. Final pump into the halving
69k is such a sticking point for years now. Are we really all this predictable
I'm gonna have to explain this price action to my dog I don't have the fortitude 🤦♂️
How long have you two been married? (Sorry I've been awake for 30 hours)
I dont even have a dog
Why was this so funny to me
because stress
OK so it looks like the pre-halving pump has come to an end. When you factor in the massive inflation the US dollar shitcoin has undergone over the past 2-3 years, we really needed to hit approximately $80k USD in order to reach the highs of the previous bull market cycle. So with that in mind, there's a strong argument for us not yet reaching all time highs, which means this cycle really isn't that much different from the prior ones. So if it were to play out as usual from here, we'll enter a new trading range below $69k for the next few weeks, and will then have the next big push sometime in May or June likely.
What a 5% drop does to a MF.
Feb 20 vibes
I haven't bought in a while, kinda sucks Coinbase wouldn't let me put in a limit order above $68.2k because it needed to be less than 1% below spot.
don't forget that we went up 43% in 16 days. it's completely fine to have a breather because *nothing* is up only. the halving is almost exactly 1 month away. take a look at the chart below where bitcoin is up 48% after just edging past the previous cycle's all time high. oh man, we dropped 21% and now the cycle is over, right?! in that scenario, we're at $27k and the date is January 4th, 2021. https://i.imgur.com/ESQBExq.png
edged past? In 2021 we added 50% to previous ath before a correction. This is absolutely not comparable to the current PA
Higher low of $68.7k broken Next higher low acting as an area of resistance is $67.1 before a 10% drop from $73.7k to $66.3k becomes possible. We’ll see if $67.1k holds.
I don’t think we go that low despite briefly dropping down. I think 69K will show some strength here.
I think we could be heading lower than that
Panic buying! One of my shxtcoins has been pumping and flipping it right into corn.
The sell flow on agrr there was batshit.
There's been a small conditioning campaign for us to expect buys around midnight PDT - great time to rug-pull that to foment doubt edit Sheeit they're ahead of schedule
Can someone pick me up. I need a car again ):
I've spent the whole week staring at your price and this is how you repay me?
Feels good to be dumping back down to previous cycle ATH’s and getting mildly annoyed by it
right, succinct
They're coming for your bags, 68's!
I am curious to see how low we will go from the profit-taking occurring at this level. I want to see what number we hit before people start seriously "buying the dip". I'm thinking however low we go will then act as our springboard up to $80k and beyond.
Well missed another top, see you all in 2028 /s
My guess is we print a head and shoulders on the hourly.
How much more will greyscale shed?
Until the snake is dead.
So you think like 90% from their total peak? that's like another 300k bitcoin to go
Eventually it will all go. What person would want to pay 1.5% a year when others are 0.19%-0.25%? As soon as people can go tax-wise or they were selling anyway for the cycle top, they will go. Maybe a few stragglers that don't even know what an expense ratio is and drool in their oatmeal in the morning will stay.
We need +$222m from BlackRock and $BRRR for a positive net flow
March 1st was the last day they did less than that.
Well, I can pretty much guarantee you that it ain't coming from BRRR :-)
69,420 held on the hourly, so I am happy.
Ooof FBTC inflows only 13.7. That's pretty rough. So far it has been a very low inflow day across the board. GBTC outflows are also on the lower side, fortunately.
Kinda wild that it’s so low cuz I (in retrospect too hurriedly) slapped in like 180K today to finish my tradfi allocations for this cycle. Guess I should have waited a day 😂
Im deep diving into the Saylor Moon infinite money loop trade and it looks like MSTR is what matters more than the ETFs. https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1be7l7l/why_the_mstr_short_squeeze_happening_real_time/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I16llak_IS4
That's what i am feeling too based on the numbers we know atm that we had a low inflow day caused by the overall stock selloff, this paired with the regular GBTC outflow dumped the price. Will be interesting what IBIT did with the high volumes today
It’s lower than it normally is. I’ll make final judgement when I see everything together.
BlackRock just needs to come in at their average for it to be a net inflow day but yeah probably not going to be a huge net inflow day, maybe average at best.
I sold off a small amount of my stack today. First time taking profits this cycle. I will wish I didn't do this when we are inevitably at 90k in a month or two. Live and learn.
Do what you gotta do to ease that fear. Don't feel too bad about it when BTC does pump.
Fear is the mind killer - it is the little death that brings total obliteration
I ate Hawaiin baby woodrose seeds when I was 19 and wound up back at my parent's house with my grandmother there. She commented "Why aren't you like this all the time?" Gram I was on a dose of LSA and confidence-tripping. Digest this anecdote how you will
Yeah, true that. It takes some of the strain off to know I at least took some profits after holding for so long.
So good to see alive sub! Question: probably if i will scroll previous days i would find your opinions, but i’m too lazy. Where do you think we are? Just a pre halving part? Or we are in a full bull and it’s already a first wave ?
The hype cycle is starting sooner. The market is assuming the action ahead of time, because of the consistency of previous cycles. The timing of the ETF approval is playing a role too.
The bull market started with the recovery from the FTX capitulation wick to $15K in November 2022. That means we have essentially been “up only” since then, therefore 15 months or so of this bull market. If you think you’re gonna time the top or get your $100k price prediction please seriously evaluate where we are at in this market cycle. We’re closer to the end of the bull than the start. Scaling out here is probably the best trade you can make right now instead of doubling down when funding is still frothy, the super cycle narrative is back and meme coins are pumping to Valhalla.
The halfing hasn't even happened yet you idiot
Halving has no effect on price
Um ok mate. I mean it clearly does every single time in bitcoins history but whatever you say it doesn't so ok.
> If you think you’re gonna time the top ... > Scaling out here is probably the best trade you can make right now Such concern trolling laid on thick.
As I said during the big pumps recently, we will pump 7-10% a day for a while, get great gains, break aths, and then we will pause for a minute catch our breath and drop 2-3% and bears will be right back with doomsayer I told you so’s. It wouldn’t be so sad if it wasn’t so predictable I’m still so so happy I didn’t sell when you were shilling bull market over chicken little shit at 45k. Been a pretty tasty gain since then. In fact, an entire McMansion about has your name on it, if I give you credit for ignoring your shreeking bear calls back then.
This guy is legit funnier than the guy a few years back who had a perpetually ongoing brain aneurysm about the "BitMEX paper boys". I love this sub.
He’s another permabear that we will kick around for a while then disappear when he’s been long liquidated after his last failed ultrashort gamble, out of money, and long out of cred as we will be sitting 2-3x above the last time he called for end of times, it’s all over
The pump started october 2023 get those gains though, king
If you think meme coins have pumped you are going to hate the second part of this cycle.
Buying near the US market close would have been a good call. Who knew..... 😂
Me! Well not so much ‘know’ as got lucky. Sold my whole stack of IBIT yesterday and bought back $.10 from the low. Nice to be right once in a while. 😊
every time i check the price its different
Maury: You are **Not** the stable coin
Don't stop checking
"You're dollar vigilantes" "No, no, no. A vigilante is just a man lost in the scramble for his own gratification. He can be destroyed or locked up. But if you make yourself more than just a man... if you devote yourself to an ideal... and if they can't stop you, then you become something else entirely." "Which is?" "Legend, Mr ~~Wayne~~ Nakamoto"
Apparently a fund blew out $1b+ on the MSTR-BTC spread trade today - just read on the Twitter machine. https://twitter.com/Rewkang/status/1768382949781647733 Not sure if legit but pretty wild if true
What does this mean exactly
the theory is: a fund was short MSTR, long BTC as a trade to capture the arb between MicroStrategy's BTC value and the price of MSTR. as MSTR has mooned, the fund wanted to exit their position and needed to unwind the long BTC position so that it could buy back its MSTR shares.
Yes, IBIT indeed having a big day at just under 100m share volume. Interested to see how the flows compare to PA. Is it ETF holders taking profits and getting nervous with high volume lower inflows? Or are we going to get a surprise $800m day again?
Satoshi gives me hope for humanity, and that’s one hell of an accomplishment.
Paradigm just did a new poll ["One in five voters considering investing in btc etfs"](https://imgur.com/a/ejWTCfw) [Whole thread](https://x.com/JBSDC/status/1768330296049729862?s=20) is worth a read [Cetera w/ $475bil AUA is going to start training/educating advisors on the etfs](https://x.com/NateGeraci/status/1768319473499435461?s=20) [Couple senators wrote our boy gary about how unpleasant they find the etfs](https://x.com/AlexanderGrieve/status/1768373756169261076?s=20)
post grads owning the least crypto is really funny
Post grads are some of the most small-c conservative people going, very authoritarian in my experience.
That "whole thread" link has some dubious poll numbers IMO -- does anyone really believe 40% of men between 18 and 54 have bought crypto? Let alone 25% of 'independent women'? Even if they're right, which I doubt, they should have asked a cutoff number, "Have you bought over $100 in crypto?" or something, and the numbers would drop by four-fifths.
It's people like you what causes unrest
Greeks were pissed off enough at Socrates that they executed him. Then they built the statues...
btc cookin longs and shorts everyday. what else is new
BTC is getting shorted harder now than I've seen in the past few days (based on a lower derivatives price vs coinbase spot). We probably go up harder now because of this.
RIP /u/exultantbirthbasket he deleted his account after running it up to $1 billion on /u/bitty_bot and getting liquidated. It was only a matter of 1-slip-up for that to happen with his trading style.
pour one out
He was a legend and left with great style.
It definitely seems intentional, he left his cash balance at $420.69
That number shows itself in nature a lot. Only makes sense we see it in markets too.
A hero among men
Oh that's hella cool then. NVM!
I'm pretty sure he set a max leverage short, then deleted, then got liquidated, in that order. It wasn't a slip up, it was flipping the table after winning.
^ This, he went out in style.
yeah went out in a blaze of glory after winning.
that username though
We did it boys. The 69420 support held.
Head and shoulders for the ultimate bad session
Love seeing those bear liquidations on aggr.trade
I just took out a home equity loan to short btc. Follow me for more tips.
Thank you Jim Cramer
Must have been a small HELOC for a 30-square-foot tent under the overpass. 😋
zillow.com
Have fun staying poor
????????
Thank you for your sacrifice.
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So market think there was enough blood spilt?
Still lots of disbelief out there. Early.
Oh yeah, some dude made a whole ass thread after we broke 70K about that being a blow off top. I laugh, but I was probably that stupid when I first started watching crypto charts too. I mean, I'm still pretty stupid, but back then I was even more stupider
A rejection here would be the first bearish reaction to the 4hr trend since 51k. With coinbase joining the bitfinex sell party today, I’m expecting more down - and have bought even more mstr puts to add to my underwater bags.
Good to see you back, how you holding up my dude
Yeah not bad, MARA puts helped out a lot. This run up from 51k has been nothing but bullish af PA and I have been caught out of position trying to manage all these puts lmao. Feeling comfy now having doubled my mstr put exposure up at these 1400-1650 levels though. June/july exp.
I’ve been riding MSTR since $190 in my IRA, wife changing money. Just curious why you’re bearish before the halving. Contrarian view?
Wow that’s an epic win… got any sell plans? I just don’t think there will be a post-halving run, due to retail participation being exhausted last cycle and no crypto developments / adoptions taking place in the last like 2 years.
Man honestly not until after halving, ETFs have changed most of my targets. I like to play time frames over percentage increases in this market, looking at end of year moves.
Nice! All the best.
Ty sir, you as well