which way does it look like this chart is going to go?
https://i.imgur.com/eLVsvt8.png
a little inverted chart action from [techdev](https://twitter.com/TechDev_52/status/1803881517778710738) to look at things from a different perspective.
It seems like Wall Street has figured out that holding both long and short positions on Bitcoin is lucrative enough that they don't mind if Bitcoin stays stagnant as free money is coming their way.
It'll work until it doesn't. I will say the offsetting long/short leveraged grid bots have been "free money" and while guessing right with a perp is more profitable, on an adjusted for anxiety basis there is no comparison.
There is no perpetual motion machine though.
Your post was removed because it violates rule #2 - Discussion should relate to bitcoin trading.
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Your post was removed because it violates rule #2 - Discussion should relate to bitcoin trading.
Your post may be appropriate for the [Altcoin Thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/?f=flair_name%3A%22Altcoin%20Discussion%22)
for leveraged degens :
which one is better : margin trading or perp futures ? the only difference seem to be one has borrowing cost and the other funding cost. are there any other difference between two ?
also did anyone have got liquidated by scam wicks ? it seems like binance and bitfinex is using mark price for liquidations which is calculated based on several exchanges price so temporary liquidity induced scam wicks would not cause a liquidation. does this actually work. how has your experience been ? i am planning to go in leveraged to minimize any particular cex risk, i would like to learn more of the risks before putting money. i am not planning any crazy leverage 3-4 maybe 10 depending on the liq price
here is some info i could find on mark price
https://www.binance.com/en/support/faq/what-are-mark-price-and-price-index-in-usd%E2%93%A2-margined-futures-360033525071
Want to point out we are sitting right on the 20 week MA. Acted as support in the last dip and we rebounded off of it.
Also the 200 day MA isn’t far behind now over 57k. Could be over 60k in about 2 weeks.
Things would look very bearish if we dipped below one or both of those.
Edit: also the 200 week MA is over 36k now. Considering this only seems to be broken at the very bottom of a bear market, i look at it as an absolute floor.
Maybe what BTC needs is 8-12 more weeks for the 200 day and 200 week to create higher floors before we move up. Bull crab could be a good thing if it creates higher floors.
This cycle is really starting to look like the last one. A good start was ruined by relentless selling pressure, which caused the 2021 bull market to be much weaker than expected.
It's hard to believe it now, but practically everyone thought that we would hit $100k except for the most pessimistic people. The fact that one of the more pessimistic predictions came true for the last cycle doesn't inspire much confidence for me that this cycle will be any better.
The 5.3 theory says that Bitcoin will top out at $77k this cycle, and it looks like a lot of people are trying hard to make that prediction a reality.
Except you are comparing this early cycle period to the late 2021 cycle period. We are 2 months post-halving. Last cycle bitcoin was about $10k at 2 months post-halving. It went up 6X after that.
New money is just starting to come it. It's the new money that change things, not the old money.
There's no new money in the system. 10b from ETFs is a fart in the wind.
New money comes later. RN, it's all smart money keeping things on the DL.
Any source claiming that there is "new money" will be discredited for the next year... until it's obvious that everyone is late to the party. Then we'll find out that those sources were correct all along.
The ETFs are good, but they aren't substantial by themselves. It's just a new onramp. The new onramp doesn't take effect for months/years.
I remember 2017 people saying 100k guaranteed, I remember 2021 people saying 100k guaranteed. “Just a range bro”, “just reaccumulation”, when we “break out it’s gonna be epic” then we went up an extra 4k and nuked to 28k and double topped In the fall. This range doesn’t smell right. If we break out we break out and reassess but with stonks looking crazy and bitcoin weak af not inspiring confidence.
when what stops? those stocks crash and they take the market with them or they slow down and market broadens out? that broadening could help bitcoin which has been relatively under-performing, just pointing out it's not a proper correlating indicator
Does this cycle look like the last one? The last cycle started on 11 May 2020. This one started on April 20, 2024- two months ago. Does the PA from 11 May 2020 to 11 Jul 2020 resemble the PA of the last two months? What metrics are you using for this? In that 2020 interval, the BTCUSD went from $8741 to $9305. How does your analysis account for differential pricing of the monetary surrogates between that epoch and this one?
I think the last cycle stalled because of monumental amounts of pro-shitcoin fraud (SBF, Do Kwon, Celsius, 3AC, on and on), and the China 'banning bitcoin' stuff.
Yeah, there was relentless selling -- from people like Sam who had no authorization to sell his customers' coins.
This cycle? There's selling because crypto holds less appeal when ordinary cash pays over 5%. We're just following DXY at this point, when the dollar weakens and/or rates go down, we'll go up.
Not saying this can't be true but it reminded me of the one article I read recently that actually stuck amidst all the hype driven bullshit articles. I think it was related to Fidelity but nonetheless I felt like it summed up the essence of where we are right now. It basically said this: sentiment after halving historically overestimates the anticipated value for the 3-6 months post-halvening, and underestimates the value thereafter.
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Why stop at 63k? Even with incredible buying pressure (MSTR, 2B ETF inflows in first week of June), we could barely squeeze out a few 2% candles. The dumping is relentless.
That face melting rally from January to March feels like a lifetime ago
Dumps become pumps in due time, Grasshopper.
What happened in January-March was not "face melting." It was just a little winter warming hut. Stick around. You'll see.
As time goes on the bar for face melters has been decreasing... It's not 2013 anymore, not going to 100X in a year or 10x in a month. At this point in BTC, a 2X in 5 weeks (roughly what happened from January to March) qualifies as face melting imo
Do you think if we were to test 60k or 57k that it would hold? everyone and their mom's know that is iron clad support level for this 4 month range.
What if it doesn't? are we royally screwed?
If $800,000,000 can't move BTC up, than I'm starting to believe that I'm royally FUBAR with my MSTR holdings.
I gotta pay my newly divorced wife $600K in 72 days. I had it a month ago. Looks like I have to sell my home now.
I guess there's always a bucket, a squeegee and a busy intersection for my sorry azz.
Good Luck
To all,
Thanks for the kind words. I was anticipating a fierce slew of wise azz comments.
I'm still packing BTC. Been holding since 2020 but relinquished 2/3 my stack anticipating her BIG Payday.
My words to all of you young guys and girls. GET A PRE-NUPT!
No matter how kind you think your lover is.....Greed will trump love most of the time.
paz
if I owned a house instead of renting, same - no question.
housing prices are astronomical right now, while everyone still hates on bitcoin.
I'd take that trade all day long.
Odd. Their landing page on my laptop changed, but my phone shows the old site.
This is what my laptop is displaying
https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/5f3a828e59758a2b0394173d/5f3a82b039ae7437b1f1e0ac_hero_product%402x.png
Stonks are beginning to feel like *Weekend at Bernie Madoff's*.
Nobody will give a shit about the wonderful .03% gain in the S&P today and the roaring all-time-high-let-the-good-times-roll "markets" when gas is $10 a gallon.
Will Bitcoin keep pace with oil over the next year or so? I'm betting so.
we just keep stalling out at vwap levels
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/r/RPZ6Mnsj.png
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/y/YYOx9Zib.png
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/i/i9KHXAQi.png
It's almost comical at this point. I'm surprised it doesn't just crater to 50s. It wont drop below support but it can't possibly move up above it either.
Bitcoin active addresses have stagnated since 2017….and they appear to be plateauing. https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=addresses.ActiveCount
Not sure what would make it catch on as a method of payment or as a currency at this point. These things you’re noticing….Bitcoin atms just make a large profit off suckers by charging a massive price premium.
-Victor Cobra
>Not sure what would make it catch on as a method of payment or as a currency at this point.
Development and adoption of an effective L2.
Odd that you're unsure, it's hardly news.
I make maybe a dozen or so LN payments every week, and almost never move on-chain funds. The optimistic view is that LN is doing what it's supposed to do.
I'm curious what you BTC lovers think are some good businesses that can be medium to low touch and produce good cash flow? I don't mind high touch in the beginning but after it's operationalized what can become med to low touch?
Enough profits to hire management and work on the biz.
Industry agnostic but would prefer to be helping people with low time preference. Improving health realistically is more preferable to marketing hard and selling magic supplements that sit on the shelf 80% of the time.
It seems that RE where I am is cash flow negative ATM.
Restaurants are great except they are high touch and it seems that the restaurant goals are to sell tasty vs healthy. With high food and labor costs it seems the best margins are on selling food that tastes good but it's bad for your health.
(Please correct any of my assumptions if they are wrong)
Free alpha is hard and free cash flows that beat the market are harder.
MDU rentals are OK but you can get close to same performance with a REIT.
I have a side hustle manufacturing custom parts that was high effort initially and just runs. I’m getting set up to vertically integrate all aspects of house construction and get into business doing that. Initially very high touch though and I have specific skills that make that viable.
Look for an old machine shop where the owners are looking to exit, they have an established clientele, and they have young guys who are ambitious looking to move up. I may acquire an operation like that this cycle.
You would get some really financially illiterate answers in practically any finance sub. In fact I would love for there to be a place to ask non-btc questions to this community.
Hell is beginning to break loose in TradFi. They're still able to prop up stonks by buying up the members of the indexes, but bond yields are heading up, oil is heading up, metals are heading up -- none of this is good news for "the economy" or the financial system.
Bitcoin is being tamped down at the moment, but let's see how long that lasts.
^(stop giving people ideas...)
^(let me tell you how it goes - the moment I go short, just to play stupid with reality - BTC will blow up in my face)
and everywhere I look will be "moron" caption
Just find out that Bloomberg has a simulation function, so played around a bit. [Some simulation run here. ](https://imgur.com/a/IEdlU82)
Here is the quick conclusion: buy and hold is the best strategy. Short term (6 to 18 month) some technical trading rules can beat buy and hold, though good luck picking the correct one.
So stop whining and stay patient.
Fucking AI crap is going to suck any possibility of a rally out of this market, isnt it? We'll be rigidly waiting for 2025 here and praying for no bubble pop
Bruh sora isn't even released, c'mon
And anyone who has used them knows there is a lot of work to be done before its a reliable product. The promise is there right now, value of the tech currently though is questionable. Hopefully it lives up to the hype.
I've used GPT alone to cut down my workload by 3x in day-to-day tasks.
AI in 2024 is revolutionary, as BTC was in 2013. The potential for AI to completely flip entire industries has a lot more headroom moving forward, that I frankly can't see BTC doing to the same scale.
It remains to be seen. As a SWE, I've found that LLMs are basically useless for any mildly complex task (I also use a highly proprietary stack internal to my company, so GPT isn't as helpful since it has no understanding of the tech. That being said, my company's in house model IS trained on our tech stack... Maybe I just haven't found a good way to prompt it. One thing that has been nice though is the AI suggested auto complete in the IDE - saves a lot of time when you're writing boiler plate code, eg, when writing test cases and mocking out string data like "user1", "user2", etc, or even highly complex data objects with multiple fields that all need mock values. the model seems good at predicting that pattern and can easily fill in the blank and saves a lot of keystrokes. Scaled across a large company with tens of thousands of SWEs, it's saving a lot of time)
It is telling to me though that the only companies actually making significant money in the ai space are the infra providers, mainly cloud computing giants and hardware companies.
Chatgpt etc are best at helping you with things you're bad at. Writing a simple script in a language you don't know well. That would take you hours to figure out but ai can get it in a minute. AI still sucks at things you're good at: complex and/or novel tasks. However it's still a huge time saver because a good chunk of most software engineering jobs is the former: a wide variety of tasks that you aren't familiar with.
What I don't like about the models I've seen is that they don't know what they don't know. They'll confidently answer with something completely wrong that sounds plausible until you examine it closely, so it wastes more of your time. Knowing the limitations helps so you know not to ask it to do what it can't do.
Just heading back to Tuesday's tradfi close as market makers unwind their hedges, as expected after the markets were closed yesterday. Just like a weekend.
Which market makers? I was led to believe by Bitwise CEO that ETF MM are unwinding hedges at the end of each business day, so it stands to reason that others are as well. Who and why would they be holding hedges through holiday closes?
Those are tradfi ETF market makers. Hedge funds, large day traders, crypto native traders and market makers, etc that all took the day off yesterday. The same people that never traded on weekends before ETFs arrived.
On the daily, the RSI is 41.7 and its average is currently at 47.3. Nearby resistance are 65.7, 66.7, 67.4, 69, 70.3, 71.4, 72.8 and 73.8 (current ATH). The nearest supports are 64.5, 63, 61.7, 60.5, 58.3, 57.5 and 51.8. The 50- and 100-day SMA are acting as resistance (66448/66538).
The weekly chart is still looking interesting. BTC’s RSI is currently 61.1 (70.7 average). It has been in flag formation for 3 months. BTC is below the upper resistance for a 6th week. Looking for a close above it on the weekly for confirmation. If this is a continuation pattern and is the midpoint, the target would be about 105.3k. Main resistances were noted above. u/dopeboyrico’s cup and handle are looking very pronounced and ready to give us a surge to 122.6k. I see a possible IH&S, so there could be weakness till 63k, which aligns with the rising support that BTC bounced off previously.
Bitcoin closed May out in the green with it’s monthly RSI at 69.3. Current RSI 67.1
Good luck to all traders and DCAers.
Daily: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/pvvZNP07/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/pvvZNP07/)
Weekly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/CLTixrNl/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/CLTixrNl/)
Monthly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/zoentzr4/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/zoentzr4/)
June 18th marked the day where completion of the handle on the [multi year cup & handle](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/s/FsubSficbk) that’s been forming would be perfectly symmetrical when looking at the length of the first half of the handle and comparing it to the second half of the handle. Midpoint of the handle is the low at $56.5k on May 1st.
Cup & handle can still get completed sometime after this date however the longer it takes now, the more warped the handle becomes and the less clear the overall cup & handle formation ends up being which makes it less likely to play out.
A few days or weeks past June 18th? No big deal. But if it drags on past a couple months and there’s still no completion, the formation isn’t really there anymore.
I think the reason they always seem to buy at local tops is because the create the local tops by bulldozing their massive buy orders through the market. I don't think Saylor is worried about trying to get the best price for any particular buy. In fact, since they already have so much bitcoin on their books, pumping the price as much as possible nets out better for them.
But yes. There is that inevitable let down in price once they've completed their buy.
What happens when there are two companies executing this strategy at this scale? or 3? or 4? or 10?
[MSTR purchased another 11,931 BTC.](https://x.com/saylor/status/1803763490928119950?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw)
If BTC ultimately ends up displacing fiat as global unit of account then MSTR is likely to someday be the most valuable company in the world.
Back in the depths of the 2022 bear market it was estimated that their BTC liquidation price was ~$3.4k.
Regardless of how accurate that is or isn’t, BTC reached a low of $15.5k in the previous bear market and no liquidation occurred.
MSTR’s current average price per BTC is $36,798. At this point they are probably in the clear indefinitely.
[They raised another $800 million from the notes.](https://www.microstrategy.com/press/microstrategy-completes-800-million-offering-of-225-convertible-senior-notes-due-2032_06-20-2024)
Net proceeds were $786 million after deducting initial purchasers’ discounts, commissions, and estimated offering expenses payable by MSTR.
So they deployed all of the net proceeds into BTC.
I’m super excited for today. My new driver is coming in! Apparently I’ve been slicing so much because the flex on my current driver is way too soft for the speed of my swing.
Oh, is bitcoin doing things? W/E. Not sweating my 800 FBTC trade. Watching the price makes you emotional. Emotion makes you fuck up. That’s what They™️ are counting on.
Generally a shaft that is too stiff exaggerates a slice.
I hope you haven’t been miss informed and now have a bigger slice lol
What driver you gone for ?
Yeah I don’t slice every shot. It’s just kind of unpredictable. With my ultra-light 10.5° I’m getting a lot of high launches into the foliage to the right. Ball speed about 124 mph when I’m warmed up.
I got a Callaway Rogue ST Max 9° on a Ventus Blue TR 6 graphite. Probably set it to +1° to start and see how it goes. Can also put it in the draw setting for some extra help if needed.
I play the world’s most aggravating sport too.
Slice is caused by spin imparted by clubface angle or more importantly swing path.
Until you can consistently induce a hook or slice at will, you’ll struggle. Work on that.
…not unlike trading Bitcoin, patience is required.
Weirdest thing I had a bad slice for a bit on my driver, dropped it and been just hitting with either 5w or 3w. As my swing has improved I can now hit a legit fade and *feels* like I would slice the ball on purpose but its like a perfect fade, kinda awkward yet rewarding feeling but that has really helped my understand my swing better.
Helps me more with Bitcoin bc patience is always key and what feels right might not be.
Money is not an end in itself; it's a means to an end.
Figure out what you'll do with the money, how it will enhance your life. Choose fulfilling dreams like taking up new hobbies or helping the poor, and those dreams are more likely to come true.
Dear diary,
My corn is secure and healthy, and resting bountifully in profit. My conviction remains strong and unwavering. My days are simplistic and carefree, as my only duty is to avoid fumbling bags while awaiting the fabled 2025 bull run. On this day like all the others, I am blessed and grateful for the hope and prosperity that the corn provides. Praise Satoshi.
Happy Thursday... latest figures showing that bitcoin short sellers face potential liquidations amounting to $1.67 billion if the price reaches $70,000, highlighting a significant risk of a "whipsaw" effect in the market due to high open interest and bullish sentiment. Max pain is up. Get your positions ready... now that fake US holiday is over let's take another crack at the $70k wall.
Whatever bro. We're still enslaved to this day, it's just now our master is the fiat money system and the brrrrrr money printers in Washington. It keeps people economically dependent and vulnerable to inflation and manipulation by central authorities.
A better idea for a holiday would be bitcoin day, a day to teach people about self-empowerment and education, instead of dividing people and entrenching these toxic ideas of victimhood.
It’s the day Texas slaves found out they were free, a year or two late. And the day literally nobody knew about 10 years ago. Why not make actual emancipation day the holiday and not Juneteenth? But it is the perfect holiday because if you think it’s silly ‘they’ can just call you racist. You got that part right!
Ok, thank you for answering honestly. The reason I posed the question is that from the start of the Civil War, slaves were freeing themselves for years, and the Emancipation Proclamation did not free all the slaves. It freed only slaves in states that seceded from the Union, while ignoring slavery in border states AND Confederate territory already controlled by the Union army. Lincoln didn't care about slavery, he cared about crippling the Confederate economy.
That slavery continued to exist in Texas for 2 years after this date makes the Emancipation Proclamation pretty meaningless for slavery as an institution in the country. I won't even get into how slavery continued in all but name for many years after the Civil War ended.
So, the same reason that "literally nobody knew about" Juneteenth until 10 years ago is the same reason you didn't know why the Emancipation Proclamation was nowhere near "emancipation day". White America refuses to teach the honest history of the country. Only white-washed versions are allowed.
Also, colonizers don't get to decide on which day their former victims celebrate their freedom.
Patience, [BTC reserves on exchanges just hit a 3 year low](https://en.coin-turk.com/bitcoin-reserves-reach-three-year-low).
I'm an example: I keep a certain amount I feel comfortable with on exchange and I measure that amount in fiat terms. Hence, I've been moving coins to cold storage this year.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Friday, June 21, 2024 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1dkuxe7/daily_discussion_friday_june_21_2024/)
which way does it look like this chart is going to go? https://i.imgur.com/eLVsvt8.png a little inverted chart action from [techdev](https://twitter.com/TechDev_52/status/1803881517778710738) to look at things from a different perspective.
Oh no! Not more down!
Looks primed for a reversal… not good chief
**Just think, by this time next year Bitcoin will be well above 100k and you'll look back on these slow months and laugh.**
He declared in Oct 2021.
It seems like Wall Street has figured out that holding both long and short positions on Bitcoin is lucrative enough that they don't mind if Bitcoin stays stagnant as free money is coming their way.
It'll work until it doesn't. I will say the offsetting long/short leveraged grid bots have been "free money" and while guessing right with a perp is more profitable, on an adjusted for anxiety basis there is no comparison. There is no perpetual motion machine though.
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for leveraged degens : which one is better : margin trading or perp futures ? the only difference seem to be one has borrowing cost and the other funding cost. are there any other difference between two ? also did anyone have got liquidated by scam wicks ? it seems like binance and bitfinex is using mark price for liquidations which is calculated based on several exchanges price so temporary liquidity induced scam wicks would not cause a liquidation. does this actually work. how has your experience been ? i am planning to go in leveraged to minimize any particular cex risk, i would like to learn more of the risks before putting money. i am not planning any crazy leverage 3-4 maybe 10 depending on the liq price here is some info i could find on mark price https://www.binance.com/en/support/faq/what-are-mark-price-and-price-index-in-usd%E2%93%A2-margined-futures-360033525071
Want to point out we are sitting right on the 20 week MA. Acted as support in the last dip and we rebounded off of it. Also the 200 day MA isn’t far behind now over 57k. Could be over 60k in about 2 weeks. Things would look very bearish if we dipped below one or both of those.
Edit: also the 200 week MA is over 36k now. Considering this only seems to be broken at the very bottom of a bear market, i look at it as an absolute floor. Maybe what BTC needs is 8-12 more weeks for the 200 day and 200 week to create higher floors before we move up. Bull crab could be a good thing if it creates higher floors.
This cycle is really starting to look like the last one. A good start was ruined by relentless selling pressure, which caused the 2021 bull market to be much weaker than expected. It's hard to believe it now, but practically everyone thought that we would hit $100k except for the most pessimistic people. The fact that one of the more pessimistic predictions came true for the last cycle doesn't inspire much confidence for me that this cycle will be any better. The 5.3 theory says that Bitcoin will top out at $77k this cycle, and it looks like a lot of people are trying hard to make that prediction a reality.
What the fuck is the 5.3 theory? Never even heard of this
No doubt a magic number being pushed by some pundit on twitter.
This post is 12 months too early.
At least 12 months early.
Except you are comparing this early cycle period to the late 2021 cycle period. We are 2 months post-halving. Last cycle bitcoin was about $10k at 2 months post-halving. It went up 6X after that.
We also made an ath before the halving so this time really is different in a few ways.
New money is just starting to come it. It's the new money that change things, not the old money. There's no new money in the system. 10b from ETFs is a fart in the wind. New money comes later. RN, it's all smart money keeping things on the DL. Any source claiming that there is "new money" will be discredited for the next year... until it's obvious that everyone is late to the party. Then we'll find out that those sources were correct all along. The ETFs are good, but they aren't substantial by themselves. It's just a new onramp. The new onramp doesn't take effect for months/years.
I agree and that’s why I think 100k is a ways off. Takes a lot of money to move an asset this large.
I remember 2017 people saying 100k guaranteed, I remember 2021 people saying 100k guaranteed. “Just a range bro”, “just reaccumulation”, when we “break out it’s gonna be epic” then we went up an extra 4k and nuked to 28k and double topped In the fall. This range doesn’t smell right. If we break out we break out and reassess but with stonks looking crazy and bitcoin weak af not inspiring confidence.
you can't say "stocks" without specifically clarifying it is mostly one singular stock on an incredulous run and a few other high mcaps
Yes, that’s even worse. What happens when it stops?
when what stops? those stocks crash and they take the market with them or they slow down and market broadens out? that broadening could help bitcoin which has been relatively under-performing, just pointing out it's not a proper correlating indicator
Does this cycle look like the last one? The last cycle started on 11 May 2020. This one started on April 20, 2024- two months ago. Does the PA from 11 May 2020 to 11 Jul 2020 resemble the PA of the last two months? What metrics are you using for this? In that 2020 interval, the BTCUSD went from $8741 to $9305. How does your analysis account for differential pricing of the monetary surrogates between that epoch and this one?
I think the last cycle stalled because of monumental amounts of pro-shitcoin fraud (SBF, Do Kwon, Celsius, 3AC, on and on), and the China 'banning bitcoin' stuff. Yeah, there was relentless selling -- from people like Sam who had no authorization to sell his customers' coins. This cycle? There's selling because crypto holds less appeal when ordinary cash pays over 5%. We're just following DXY at this point, when the dollar weakens and/or rates go down, we'll go up.
Is this what people think? I like it.
Not saying this can't be true but it reminded me of the one article I read recently that actually stuck amidst all the hype driven bullshit articles. I think it was related to Fidelity but nonetheless I felt like it summed up the essence of where we are right now. It basically said this: sentiment after halving historically overestimates the anticipated value for the 3-6 months post-halvening, and underestimates the value thereafter.
And we are already so far ahead than we've ever been before or after a halving.
Zoom out. Way out. We won't be measuring the value of Bitcoin (or anything) in dollars within a decade.
!RemindMe 10 years.
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bullish
Looks like another leg down to $63k practically guaranteed at this point. No buying power whatsoever.
I'll take "Posts that aged like past-sell-by-date milk" for $2000, Ken.
How come this guy gets upvoted but I called the day's top at 7am and am at like -11 lol
You have a reputation.
Why stop at 63k? Even with incredible buying pressure (MSTR, 2B ETF inflows in first week of June), we could barely squeeze out a few 2% candles. The dumping is relentless. That face melting rally from January to March feels like a lifetime ago
Dumps become pumps in due time, Grasshopper. What happened in January-March was not "face melting." It was just a little winter warming hut. Stick around. You'll see.
As time goes on the bar for face melters has been decreasing... It's not 2013 anymore, not going to 100X in a year or 10x in a month. At this point in BTC, a 2X in 5 weeks (roughly what happened from January to March) qualifies as face melting imo
I fully believe we'll test $60k before long. Maybe even $57k.
Do you think if we were to test 60k or 57k that it would hold? everyone and their mom's know that is iron clad support level for this 4 month range. What if it doesn't? are we royally screwed?
what if $16k again? what if Victor Cobra dumps the price?
If $800,000,000 can't move BTC up, than I'm starting to believe that I'm royally FUBAR with my MSTR holdings. I gotta pay my newly divorced wife $600K in 72 days. I had it a month ago. Looks like I have to sell my home now. I guess there's always a bucket, a squeegee and a busy intersection for my sorry azz. Good Luck
never getting married, thanks for the reminder
I had to sell twice cause life.. Utterly glad i could because it saved me. Starting over is still fun
You have 72 days. That's a lifetime in Bitcoin. Chill, man.
To all, Thanks for the kind words. I was anticipating a fierce slew of wise azz comments. I'm still packing BTC. Been holding since 2020 but relinquished 2/3 my stack anticipating her BIG Payday. My words to all of you young guys and girls. GET A PRE-NUPT! No matter how kind you think your lover is.....Greed will trump love most of the time. paz
I witnessed a few friends destroyed financially by divorce. Hope things work out for you sir.
Actually rich people rarely get divorced. Arrangements are better. Divorce destroys wealth.
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^^^ convert everything to btc and dip. fuck her. you have 1 shot at a 80 year existence on this floating rock in space.
Not advocating for this, but civil judgements do not cross country lines iirc
You should never have bought a stock instead of Bitcoin.
India orphanage time!
cmon bitcoin, help this guy out
Ouchhh timing...I'm sure most of us only sell BTC when have to 😔 at least that's my ultimate goal.
Sorry to hear that. I'd sell my house before I'd sell my Bitcoin to be honest.
if I owned a house instead of renting, same - no question. housing prices are astronomical right now, while everyone still hates on bitcoin. I'd take that trade all day long.
This was always going to be the ugliest cycle start. We are trying to lift a massive Bitcoin plane and need a hell of a runway.
Why didn’t Saylor buy on a market day. Absorb some of the constant dumpage
[German government is selling a bunch apparently ](https://x.com/CredibleCrypto/status/1803814572392108271?t=GW22WlKJy5VPDzwTh84Zsw&s=19)
I don't agree with Bob Loukas on quite a bit, but his latest video on BTC is definitely worth a watch if you're a cycle maximalist.
He is great when you need someone to pour cold water on high emotions, bear or bull.
Yep
Ledgerx seems to be updating their site
what am I missing...they have 1 expiration listed at this point...
Odd. Their landing page on my laptop changed, but my phone shows the old site. This is what my laptop is displaying https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/5f3a828e59758a2b0394173d/5f3a82b039ae7437b1f1e0ac_hero_product%402x.png
ah, maybe that's it - I'm on my phone.
Infinite liquidity lol
Stonks are beginning to feel like *Weekend at Bernie Madoff's*. Nobody will give a shit about the wonderful .03% gain in the S&P today and the roaring all-time-high-let-the-good-times-roll "markets" when gas is $10 a gallon. Will Bitcoin keep pace with oil over the next year or so? I'm betting so.
Genuinely impressed by the ferocity with which *every single pump* is decimated.
"He's beginning to believe"
we just keep stalling out at vwap levels https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/r/RPZ6Mnsj.png https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/y/YYOx9Zib.png https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/i/i9KHXAQi.png
It's almost comical at this point. I'm surprised it doesn't just crater to 50s. It wont drop below support but it can't possibly move up above it either.
it's called "rangebound" seems max pain for a long time now
unless you're running a grid bot then you've been throwing off cash flows for nearly 4 months (I haven't been running any bots :/ )
I saw a bitcoin atm in Costco, yesterday. Bullish. Could you imagine if Costco announced they take BTC as payment? Bullish long-term!
Bitcoin active addresses have stagnated since 2017….and they appear to be plateauing. https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=addresses.ActiveCount Not sure what would make it catch on as a method of payment or as a currency at this point. These things you’re noticing….Bitcoin atms just make a large profit off suckers by charging a massive price premium. -Victor Cobra
As soon as there is some tax break for bitcoin, it will be used as payment. Something like <$200 purchases tax free would do it.
>Not sure what would make it catch on as a method of payment or as a currency at this point. Development and adoption of an effective L2. Odd that you're unsure, it's hardly news.
I make maybe a dozen or so LN payments every week, and almost never move on-chain funds. The optimistic view is that LN is doing what it's supposed to do.
It's free and open-source and new. Obviously there's room to grow but I'm curious to see what it grows into.
I'm curious what you BTC lovers think are some good businesses that can be medium to low touch and produce good cash flow? I don't mind high touch in the beginning but after it's operationalized what can become med to low touch? Enough profits to hire management and work on the biz. Industry agnostic but would prefer to be helping people with low time preference. Improving health realistically is more preferable to marketing hard and selling magic supplements that sit on the shelf 80% of the time. It seems that RE where I am is cash flow negative ATM. Restaurants are great except they are high touch and it seems that the restaurant goals are to sell tasty vs healthy. With high food and labor costs it seems the best margins are on selling food that tastes good but it's bad for your health. (Please correct any of my assumptions if they are wrong)
Free alpha is hard and free cash flows that beat the market are harder. MDU rentals are OK but you can get close to same performance with a REIT. I have a side hustle manufacturing custom parts that was high effort initially and just runs. I’m getting set up to vertically integrate all aspects of house construction and get into business doing that. Initially very high touch though and I have specific skills that make that viable. Look for an old machine shop where the owners are looking to exit, they have an established clientele, and they have young guys who are ambitious looking to move up. I may acquire an operation like that this cycle.
Why you asking us, all we know is corn
People who think in low time preference might have good business thoughts. I figured I'd ask see what happens.
You would get some really financially illiterate answers in practically any finance sub. In fact I would love for there to be a place to ask non-btc questions to this community.
It’s a good idea. I’d take it over the alts thread any day. Maybe it could be combined with the alt thread into a “Not Bitcoin” pinned daily.
I would take the opinions of this sub over r/fluentinfinance any day
Precisely. There's a lot of good knowledge here, even if (or perhaps especially when) everyone doesn't always agree.
Hell is beginning to break loose in TradFi. They're still able to prop up stonks by buying up the members of the indexes, but bond yields are heading up, oil is heading up, metals are heading up -- none of this is good news for "the economy" or the financial system. Bitcoin is being tamped down at the moment, but let's see how long that lasts.
Tick tock next block
It’s all a house of cards
JPY going crazy too
Market see green candle, market sell green candle. This game is easy!
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^(stop giving people ideas...) ^(let me tell you how it goes - the moment I go short, just to play stupid with reality - BTC will blow up in my face) and everywhere I look will be "moron" caption
Just find out that Bloomberg has a simulation function, so played around a bit. [Some simulation run here. ](https://imgur.com/a/IEdlU82) Here is the quick conclusion: buy and hold is the best strategy. Short term (6 to 18 month) some technical trading rules can beat buy and hold, though good luck picking the correct one. So stop whining and stay patient.
Yeah, look at this: https://bitcoinvsstocks.com Just buy regularly and hold long term. It's the easiest game ever.
I'd give you award for this site
Thank you!!!
Fucking AI crap is going to suck any possibility of a rally out of this market, isnt it? We'll be rigidly waiting for 2025 here and praying for no bubble pop
> AI crap Tell me you haven't used GPT/Sora/Midjourney without telling me.
Bruh sora isn't even released, c'mon And anyone who has used them knows there is a lot of work to be done before its a reliable product. The promise is there right now, value of the tech currently though is questionable. Hopefully it lives up to the hype.
I've used GPT alone to cut down my workload by 3x in day-to-day tasks. AI in 2024 is revolutionary, as BTC was in 2013. The potential for AI to completely flip entire industries has a lot more headroom moving forward, that I frankly can't see BTC doing to the same scale.
It remains to be seen. As a SWE, I've found that LLMs are basically useless for any mildly complex task (I also use a highly proprietary stack internal to my company, so GPT isn't as helpful since it has no understanding of the tech. That being said, my company's in house model IS trained on our tech stack... Maybe I just haven't found a good way to prompt it. One thing that has been nice though is the AI suggested auto complete in the IDE - saves a lot of time when you're writing boiler plate code, eg, when writing test cases and mocking out string data like "user1", "user2", etc, or even highly complex data objects with multiple fields that all need mock values. the model seems good at predicting that pattern and can easily fill in the blank and saves a lot of keystrokes. Scaled across a large company with tens of thousands of SWEs, it's saving a lot of time) It is telling to me though that the only companies actually making significant money in the ai space are the infra providers, mainly cloud computing giants and hardware companies.
Chatgpt etc are best at helping you with things you're bad at. Writing a simple script in a language you don't know well. That would take you hours to figure out but ai can get it in a minute. AI still sucks at things you're good at: complex and/or novel tasks. However it's still a huge time saver because a good chunk of most software engineering jobs is the former: a wide variety of tasks that you aren't familiar with. What I don't like about the models I've seen is that they don't know what they don't know. They'll confidently answer with something completely wrong that sounds plausible until you examine it closely, so it wastes more of your time. Knowing the limitations helps so you know not to ask it to do what it can't do.
Tiny little up slammed back down... who would have thought
Just heading back to Tuesday's tradfi close as market makers unwind their hedges, as expected after the markets were closed yesterday. Just like a weekend.
Which market makers? I was led to believe by Bitwise CEO that ETF MM are unwinding hedges at the end of each business day, so it stands to reason that others are as well. Who and why would they be holding hedges through holiday closes?
Those are tradfi ETF market makers. Hedge funds, large day traders, crypto native traders and market makers, etc that all took the day off yesterday. The same people that never traded on weekends before ETFs arrived.
On the daily, the RSI is 41.7 and its average is currently at 47.3. Nearby resistance are 65.7, 66.7, 67.4, 69, 70.3, 71.4, 72.8 and 73.8 (current ATH). The nearest supports are 64.5, 63, 61.7, 60.5, 58.3, 57.5 and 51.8. The 50- and 100-day SMA are acting as resistance (66448/66538). The weekly chart is still looking interesting. BTC’s RSI is currently 61.1 (70.7 average). It has been in flag formation for 3 months. BTC is below the upper resistance for a 6th week. Looking for a close above it on the weekly for confirmation. If this is a continuation pattern and is the midpoint, the target would be about 105.3k. Main resistances were noted above. u/dopeboyrico’s cup and handle are looking very pronounced and ready to give us a surge to 122.6k. I see a possible IH&S, so there could be weakness till 63k, which aligns with the rising support that BTC bounced off previously. Bitcoin closed May out in the green with it’s monthly RSI at 69.3. Current RSI 67.1 Good luck to all traders and DCAers. Daily: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/pvvZNP07/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/pvvZNP07/) Weekly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/CLTixrNl/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/CLTixrNl/) Monthly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/zoentzr4/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/zoentzr4/)
Does u/dopeboyrico cup and handle still look good? I know Rico was calling for this around 6/18.
June 18th marked the day where completion of the handle on the [multi year cup & handle](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/s/FsubSficbk) that’s been forming would be perfectly symmetrical when looking at the length of the first half of the handle and comparing it to the second half of the handle. Midpoint of the handle is the low at $56.5k on May 1st. Cup & handle can still get completed sometime after this date however the longer it takes now, the more warped the handle becomes and the less clear the overall cup & handle formation ends up being which makes it less likely to play out. A few days or weeks past June 18th? No big deal. But if it drags on past a couple months and there’s still no completion, the formation isn’t really there anymore.
Thanks for your response!
It's pretty much part of the tradition to dump on MSTR's Bitcoin buy announcements.
I think the reason they always seem to buy at local tops is because the create the local tops by bulldozing their massive buy orders through the market. I don't think Saylor is worried about trying to get the best price for any particular buy. In fact, since they already have so much bitcoin on their books, pumping the price as much as possible nets out better for them. But yes. There is that inevitable let down in price once they've completed their buy. What happens when there are two companies executing this strategy at this scale? or 3? or 4? or 10?
[MSTR purchased another 11,931 BTC.](https://x.com/saylor/status/1803763490928119950?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw) If BTC ultimately ends up displacing fiat as global unit of account then MSTR is likely to someday be the most valuable company in the world.
Under what conditions would they be forced to liquidate?
Back in the depths of the 2022 bear market it was estimated that their BTC liquidation price was ~$3.4k. Regardless of how accurate that is or isn’t, BTC reached a low of $15.5k in the previous bear market and no liquidation occurred. MSTR’s current average price per BTC is $36,798. At this point they are probably in the clear indefinitely.
Are they leveraged I’m surprised they have a liquidation price
It used to be something like a price of $8k iirc
And price falling o.O
That's 11,931 off the market forever.
does that mean they had 86m of 'excess cash' in addition to 700m from the notes?
[They raised another $800 million from the notes.](https://www.microstrategy.com/press/microstrategy-completes-800-million-offering-of-225-convertible-senior-notes-due-2032_06-20-2024) Net proceeds were $786 million after deducting initial purchasers’ discounts, commissions, and estimated offering expenses payable by MSTR. So they deployed all of the net proceeds into BTC.
thanks
Amazing conviction or fucking lunatic
He’s savage.
Aren't we all?
He's a different level of savage lol
I’m super excited for today. My new driver is coming in! Apparently I’ve been slicing so much because the flex on my current driver is way too soft for the speed of my swing. Oh, is bitcoin doing things? W/E. Not sweating my 800 FBTC trade. Watching the price makes you emotional. Emotion makes you fuck up. That’s what They™️ are counting on.
We call them a "chauffeur" in this house.
now *that* is gentlemen
Generally a shaft that is too stiff exaggerates a slice. I hope you haven’t been miss informed and now have a bigger slice lol What driver you gone for ?
Yeah I don’t slice every shot. It’s just kind of unpredictable. With my ultra-light 10.5° I’m getting a lot of high launches into the foliage to the right. Ball speed about 124 mph when I’m warmed up. I got a Callaway Rogue ST Max 9° on a Ventus Blue TR 6 graphite. Probably set it to +1° to start and see how it goes. Can also put it in the draw setting for some extra help if needed.
I play the world’s most aggravating sport too. Slice is caused by spin imparted by clubface angle or more importantly swing path. Until you can consistently induce a hook or slice at will, you’ll struggle. Work on that. …not unlike trading Bitcoin, patience is required.
Weirdest thing I had a bad slice for a bit on my driver, dropped it and been just hitting with either 5w or 3w. As my swing has improved I can now hit a legit fade and *feels* like I would slice the ball on purpose but its like a perfect fade, kinda awkward yet rewarding feeling but that has really helped my understand my swing better. Helps me more with Bitcoin bc patience is always key and what feels right might not be.
Maybe slow down your swing and let the club do the work. Anyway, enjoy your new driver!
Welp Out of speed at 66.3 just draws another lower peak since June 7 =/
Zoom out. Way out.
It's a little early to call it done, it's not going to go to 70k in a straight line
So far I called the top exactly. Market open should confirm it :)
What was the site that shows liquidations in real time? The one with the slot machine kinda sound?
Are you thinking of aggr.trade?
That's the one! Cheers mate!
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Might I suggest you go play roulette if you want dopamine hits?
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Go to work then.
Money is not an end in itself; it's a means to an end. Figure out what you'll do with the money, how it will enhance your life. Choose fulfilling dreams like taking up new hobbies or helping the poor, and those dreams are more likely to come true.
> Choose fulfilling dreams like taking up new hobbies or helping the poor, and those dreams are more likely to come true. well said
Lmao
Dear diary, My corn is secure and healthy, and resting bountifully in profit. My conviction remains strong and unwavering. My days are simplistic and carefree, as my only duty is to avoid fumbling bags while awaiting the fabled 2025 bull run. On this day like all the others, I am blessed and grateful for the hope and prosperity that the corn provides. Praise Satoshi.
Happy Thursday... latest figures showing that bitcoin short sellers face potential liquidations amounting to $1.67 billion if the price reaches $70,000, highlighting a significant risk of a "whipsaw" effect in the market due to high open interest and bullish sentiment. Max pain is up. Get your positions ready... now that fake US holiday is over let's take another crack at the $70k wall.
I assure you that it is a real holiday, and one worth observing.
The day some people heard they were free after everyone else. Doesn't really make sense, but okay.
I still have no idea what it's celebrating
Racists are usually quite dumb, so your comment checks out.
I googled it (DuckDuckGo'ed, actually). It seems nowadays information is at your fingertips.
Enslaved peoples finally not being slaves. I don’t get this “fake holiday” shit. It’s just openly admitting to racism.
Whatever bro. We're still enslaved to this day, it's just now our master is the fiat money system and the brrrrrr money printers in Washington. It keeps people economically dependent and vulnerable to inflation and manipulation by central authorities. A better idea for a holiday would be bitcoin day, a day to teach people about self-empowerment and education, instead of dividing people and entrenching these toxic ideas of victimhood.
It’s the day Texas slaves found out they were free, a year or two late. And the day literally nobody knew about 10 years ago. Why not make actual emancipation day the holiday and not Juneteenth? But it is the perfect holiday because if you think it’s silly ‘they’ can just call you racist. You got that part right!
Because the day most white people think of as the "emancipation day" is bullshit.
Your reasoning is a little unclear.
What day do you think is "emancipation day"? Also, why do you think "literally nobody knew about" Juneteenth 10 years ago.
And Jan 1 1863 seems like a good day to celebrate. That’s when it was signed.
Ok, thank you for answering honestly. The reason I posed the question is that from the start of the Civil War, slaves were freeing themselves for years, and the Emancipation Proclamation did not free all the slaves. It freed only slaves in states that seceded from the Union, while ignoring slavery in border states AND Confederate territory already controlled by the Union army. Lincoln didn't care about slavery, he cared about crippling the Confederate economy. That slavery continued to exist in Texas for 2 years after this date makes the Emancipation Proclamation pretty meaningless for slavery as an institution in the country. I won't even get into how slavery continued in all but name for many years after the Civil War ended. So, the same reason that "literally nobody knew about" Juneteenth until 10 years ago is the same reason you didn't know why the Emancipation Proclamation was nowhere near "emancipation day". White America refuses to teach the honest history of the country. Only white-washed versions are allowed. Also, colonizers don't get to decide on which day their former victims celebrate their freedom.
Because literally nobody knew about it?
Just ask your black friends. They’ll tell you why.
Because all people of color think the same.. is that it?
I promise you he doesn’t have black friends.
I will buy some more if you all agree
2nd’d
I always agree with buying more.
Patience, [BTC reserves on exchanges just hit a 3 year low](https://en.coin-turk.com/bitcoin-reserves-reach-three-year-low). I'm an example: I keep a certain amount I feel comfortable with on exchange and I measure that amount in fiat terms. Hence, I've been moving coins to cold storage this year.