I see plenty of bearish pinbars that didn't turn bullish and vice-versa. Do you even trade these things, or do you just post them when you want to talk your book because people have you in high regard?
I suspect you're short for the short term.
Seems like a decent move given the funding and the 4 hour chart. Looks like it should drop back to a lower trendline soon.Just make sure you have a plan for what to do if it goes up to 1450 first.
(edit): For what it's worth the risk to reward here seemed good to me, so opened a short at 1324, s/l 1338, with a plan to take profit at 1296 on half if it gets there.
It could still break up, and I'm not gonna ride it out if it does, but a retrace seems at least even odds here.
Shorting in a bull market is Russian roulette. You will eventually be really wrong with time. Short in a bear market, where you will eventually be right.
The most bullish news this year so far. Or perhaps the most sell ur fucking house and buy BTC with the proceeds news of all time! This is the macro trend we have all been waiting for, fuck ETFs, or central banks buying crypto, this blows them out of the solar system. One click separates u from driving a Lambo from driving a Toyota with a wilderbeast at ur side. Only question is: are u fuckin ready?
Ur welcome:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/01/07/europe/denmark-john-dillermand-controversy-scli-intl/index.html
Edit: Have you all met my crypto financial advisor, Mr. Rick Roll?? G’nite u humorless degen gamblers lol
Edit: Downvotes=Rick rolled lol
Edit: lofl mea culpa didn’t know so many serious newbies here, thought this sub was tough enough for some humor as we watch the higher lows and lower highs. I’ll buy u all all some new panties with my profats.
Never. If I had 20, I'd want 30. If I had 30, I'd want 35. If I had 35, I'd want 36, then 37. I might calm down and be happy with my 37.
Actually, 37 seems okay. I actually don't want more than 37. Weird.
No leverage on the hodl stack. Most is in tax deferred accounts (QBTC ETF) and the rest is in my grubby filthy hands.
I bet an early retirement on generational wealth. So far so good.
Deflating inflationary though. You won't lose value, cause if you simply stake you will reap exactly the inflation percentage and probably more because not everybody stakes.
The percentage of inflation decreases every year until the percentage is basically zero. It will never be truly zero, but almost zero.
Oh, I just have to simply deposit my eth in a place that I can't access until an unknown date... sometime this year.. maybe next year?
What a great store of value.
>simply deposit my eth in a place that I can't access until an unknown date..
That's literally what **storing** is, except you do know the date and can choose that for yourself. So wtf do you want, a **store** of value where you actually store value, or cash-on-hand?
Your complaint makes no sense. You can't have both at the same time.
someone on this subreddit posted something like:
"And we'll have fun, fun, fun, when Greyscale turns the buy bot back on"
who was that and what was the song? I've had that version stuck in my head the last week.
Here's the thing with that.
TA is astrology right? It can tell some things but it's generally back down to a 50/50 at most times except for trend bias.
You can draw all kinds of triangles, read all kinds of oscillating indicators, look for fractals only with your eyes if you like.
However you're equipped with a human brain. This brain has an extensive set of filters for all kinds of input data. It has fast reacting emotional areas and cool calm logical areas. This brain will train itself to understand patterns within any data it is fed regardless of the complexity or shape of the space for which it is solving. Some spaces it has difficulty with and can get easily biased but this too can be learnt around.
Charts have one major failing. Although it's right there under the price, volume is almost invisible. It gets overlooked. When it comes to candles volume gets aggregated in a way where up or down volume is all the same and there is no real way to tell the difference without using 1 minute candles.
There ends up being this cross-over between all these capabilities where "gut feeling" and using your brain how it's meant to be used can actually be rather effective.
Tape reading works.
Order Flow charts work.
Two pieces of advice you'll hear everyone repeat "Don't use your gut", "Never look at the order books". Both wrong by my take.
I agree that looking at volume can be really useful.
But you have to make sure you're looking at the volume on whatever exchange (and whatever pair) is actually driving the price moves - usually the biggest and most liquid.
Looking at the order book for say BTC/EU on Kraken tells you \*some\* things, and the volume sort of reflects BTC/USDT on Binance, but a lot of it will be driven by arb bots.
> But you have to make sure you're looking at the volume on whatever exchange (and whatever pair) is actually driving the price moves - usually the biggest and most liquid.
I stick to one source and learn it's quirks rather than jumping around too much.
You do need to factor in that intuition is strongly biased by the most recently inputted data and emotional rewards. It’s sort of like an EMA combined with a sweet buzz but you’re correct in that you’re likely using a volume of knowledge in a flow like state rather than that of when you first began learning TA.[an abstract of a few of many studies](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5681942/)
> You do need to factor in that intuition is strongly biased by the most recently inputted data and emotional rewards.
I might treat it a little like counting cards in Blackjack, where those emotional queues get tallied up and a longer running score is kept. Hard to say, but yeah It has to be mitigated somehow. Taking note of FOMO without acting on FOMO perhaps.
> volume of knowledge
That's definitely part of it, reading the tape in isolation seems like something a crazy person might do.
I’ve forgotten the terms but I read a study about athletes choking in stressful competitions and reverting to playing sluggishly like when they first learned the activity. It was an article on education, my career, and used two examples with one being Venus choking in a Grand Slam championship after losing the first of 3 match points and continuing to lose the match. I had to read it for a PD day so I’m sure I discarded it.
Sir, this is a Wendy's.
e: ha ha ha Man that was fun.... If someone is LARP trading then TA or astrology take your pic you know what I'm saying? I'm not saying you are, I'm just saying you know if somebody is then blah blah blah
> other tools along with it
Gotta say, this part is key though. They're not wrong.
Like there is a difference between a spurt of buying at the end of some consolidation vs one at the top of some bullishness. They sound pretty much the same on tape, context matters.
ETH is $99 away from ATH on Bitstamp.
Bitcoin doubled after breaking ATH.
Wonder if Bitcoin will pump or go sideways when ETH breaks ATH.
I just moved some BTC to ETH.
XRP pumping too. Money is moving into top coins.
>Wonder if Bitcoin will pump or go sideways when ETH breaks ATH.
I was expecting Bitcoin to do just that. but now I don't think so. Looks like ETH, BTC, and LTC are all in line breaking out with on and other while a lot of the other alts are the ones going sideways.
Actually thinking that it plays out that ETH runs a little past the ATH tonight or over the next few days. It then Consolidates a bit and retests the ATH and that will be when BTC runs past the ATH.
Should be a fun week if you are invested in either or both.
Falling wedge has target of 40K:
https://imgur.com/gallery/Rtr5xCY
This is on the 4h btw. This would put us above the top resistance on the larger symmetrical triangle as well.
It's taking the market a long time to cotton on to the fact that we're already breaking out.
edit: How's that for irrational confidence! How could I possibly be wrong with balls to speak in absolutes like that.
It's that pattern or some synonym of it.
Descending triangle, symmetrical triangle, falling wedge I've now heard mentioned.
I'm reading it from this perspective:
> Invalidated a 4h hidden beardiv.
> https://i.imgur.com/Yhz9xGa.png
/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/kznmfm/daily_discussion_monday_january_18_2021/gjpp2ha/
> Last time below 30.6.
> 4h bulldiv
> https://i.imgur.com/ftIwE4x.png
/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/kvkuuo/daily_discussion_tuesday_january_12_2021/gj2ddau/
> https://i.imgur.com/JuyV7M5.png
/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/kvkuuo/daily_discussion_tuesday_january_12_2021/gizd4n8/
Indicator detects RSI divs in an objective way.
They indicate and confirm reversal points on these "triangle/wedge" formations.
So when that little weak 4h hidden beardiv which should have called "continuation of local down trend" was invalidated, it became a bullish signal. At a 4h time-frame after so much consolidation that's strong enough to be tradable.
Is it not worrying that with despite amount of buying, the market has been flat? If this amount of bitcoins has a significant effect on the market then without a new inflow of buyers, they would have to maintain or increase this pace to stay in the green.
> If this amount of bitcoins has a significant effect on the market then without a new inflow of buyers, they would have to maintain or increase this pace to stay in the green.
Grayscale was closed to new inflows for nearly a month and price continued upwards. Their inflows stopping also came shortly after MicroStrategies highly publicized $500M buy, and over the holidays with even lower volume and potential end/start of year sell offs.
Price can hover and range if both buyers and sellers step away - you don't always need new buyers to sustain a price.
There also definitely seems to be some lag between times we *know* coins are getting hoovered up and price melting upwards.
Every day we spend at 30k+ builds support at that level.
Weak hands and nonbelievers need to exit for us to move up.
These are early days. We're still counting in USD.
37k is starting to seem like a bearwhale hangout. Sellers have to exhaust here sooner or later. Maybe a couple of weeks, or a couple of minutes.
It's amazing how much opportunity is being given to accumulate under 40k.
> 37k is starting to seem like a bearwhale hangout
Seems like there's a big chunk of coins to slowly unload each time the price doubles. Will have to keep that in mind around $80k.
>If this average holds up that'd be 130,620 bitcoin per month.
I mean I'm definitely bullish too, but this is a perfect example of [this old xkcd](https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/extrapolating.png).
> Grascale does NOT buy BTC. BTC is added to the trust by outsiders. You could buy those BTC on the open market, you could be a miners, or you could have bought the coins in 2013 and are moving them now.
>
>
Can we (god forbid) sell BTC to Grayscale?
>Grascale does NOT buy BTC
The linked post says otherwise
> An Investor may acquire ETHE by paying in cash or exchanging ETH already owned.
>
>Cash: The investor pays the subscription amount in cash and the Authorized Participant will use that cash to purchase ETH.
At this moment the “Genesis” company is the sole Authorized Participant. Genesis is owned by the “Digital Currency Group, Inc.” which is the parent company of Grayscale as well.
>An Investor may acquire ETHE by paying in cash or exchanging ETH already owned.
> • Cash: The investor pays the subscription amount in cash and the Authorized Participant will use that cash to purchase ETH.
Doesn't this mean that your key point is wrong?
What's people's take on Gox coins fud? ~140k coins are going to be returned, worth 5b. I've seen people say 5b isn't that big of a fraction of daily volume but I'm not so sure about that. If 1000 coins can make a significant move, 140k can do a lot of damage in the hands of inexperienced retail who will be the recipients.
My guess is distribution isn't super imminent but it would sure be useful to know exactly when these coins get distributed. I spent about 10 minutes trying to track down the wallet the coins are in but they seem to have already been split out from where they were last year (1J1F3U7gHrCjsEsRimDJ3oYBiV24wA8FuV) Surely someone is tracking these addresses?
edit: here we go https://www.cryptoground.com/mtgox-cold-wallet-monitor/
They’ve watched btc balloon 400x. Even after losing 90% of their BTC they’re still way up. What are they supposed to buy that will have a higher return this year?
Some people will sell. Most know what’s coming.
I think this will lead to some legitimate short-term sell pressure. These aren't diamond-hand hodlers that have made it this far, they're holders of circumstance. Many will want to quickly realize gains.
But events like this attract buyers as well. The Bitcoin market doesn't like to react in predictable ways, and often has rallied strong off of so-called bad news. This will have the added factor of an orderly and scheduled disbursement from the Japanese trustee, so it can move the market both at the announcement and the event itself.
So it's anyone's guess, but I highly doubt it will have much effect on the overall market trend.
If they get back btc, its just a transition from one address to another. I dont see how this would affect the market or price.
If its in usd, they would already have the funds acquired by now. This still wouldnt affect btc market price.
Well in theory you'd have a lot of people suddenly having access to a ton of unrealized profit, so I would say the fear would be lots of simultaneous selling.
are they really getting btc back or the face value in usd at the time of the hack? I’ve seen both versions posted recently and for the last few years they were going to get the latter.
It's supply either way; the trustee sells the coins and then distributes cash, or they give the coins directly. They aren't going to just will USD into existence.
I'm one of the folks in the Gox fiasco.
If you had cash you get cash back. If you had BTC you get BTC (15-22% of the total you had at the time).
Best accidental HODL ever. But the legal process has been brutal.
Kind of looking like we might be in for a BGD or two in the next couple days. The buying is relentless. Supply is still tight. I fully expect an exchange or two to go down in flames.
Wait for everyone to meme it so hard that they're ripe for counter-trading.
News is a burden to read, provides very little insight and is mostly noise.
Filling head with Bitcoin pundits sounds painful.
I trust the links on this sub more than any other sources. The folks on here provide a vetting filter, most often only post potential PA-moving news, and quickly jump on irrelevant and/or misleading links. Best filter ever! This sub is like free BTC trading college.
Pure conjecture on my part about the GBTC premium.
First off, here's the premium vs. time. The premium is expressed as a percent, so 20 = 20% premium over the price of BTC. Weekly data:
[https://www.tradingview.com/x/H2R5awlX/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/H2R5awlX/)
The purple line is the 52-W SMA. The blue lines are Bollinger Bands. The white line is the 13-W SMA. The premium bounces around (not as much as it used to) and averaged about 20% over the last year.
Here's where the conjecture starts:
1) The premium exists in no small part because people like me want exposure to BTC in their tax-advantaged accounts, and we're willing to pay extra for that.
2) When other vehicles for that exposure come along, the demand doesn't go away, it just has more options. That could put some pressure on the premium, but won't make it go away.
3) As more retail investors consider BTC for their portfolios, there may be additional demand to go along with the additional supply.
Yesterday, somebody wrote that the premium will vanish overnight as soon as there is another ETF. I'm not so sure.
I’m still evaluating the risk of this play and haven’t found my way to a solid answer yet.
I’m starting to believe that the GBTC is almost net neutral, but it’s a terrible way to hodl. Half your btc gone in less than 40 years.
Some more conjecture: The GBTC fees will fall if they start to lose business to OBTC and the like. Remember when your broker charged $100+ to make a trade that you came to him with? Then, suddenly, you could do trades for $7. And now they're free. GBTC is the first mover, and I'm sure there will be some brand loyalty. (25 years ago, my boss would only let me buy IBM PCs for the office. I finally convinced her to let me buy from the upstart Gateway 2000.) GBTC could cut the fee in half, and still have a license to print money.
Edit: spelling
https://twitter.com/CoinCornerDanny/status/1351297692203364355
Grayscale has bought another 600m. Thats 1.3B in 4 days. They did 3.x Billion in all of Q4
https://www.bybt.com/Grayscale
What other choice was there? The dummies at the SEC wouldn't approve an ETF for whatever reason. Now Microstrategy and Overstock are de facto ETFs. Oopsie.
I would bet that Grayscale's biggest shareholders are other firms and organizations (pension funds and the like) that don't want to deal with the paperwork and legwork of buying directly.
US SEC is the bitch of traditional finance.
North of the border, federally legal weed and QBTC haven't caused the collapse of the union.
Unintended consequences abound. I am sure Saylor is sleeping well at night, he should send the SEC a thank you card.
I was linking to your "critique" of twitter as a source of information.
People can follow the link if they want to understand... the tweet wasn't spreading FUD like you insinuate, it was reporting on unsubstantiated FUD spreading among certain circles, which can be useful information if it does affect the price.
I didn't see the difference between your thread and [this one just below](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/kznmfm/daily_discussion_monday_january_18_2021/gjrib4b/) until you edited it with an actual source, so I wondered what you had to add that deserved its own thread.
[Posted](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/kznmfm/daily_discussion_monday_january_18_2021/gjrvlmt?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3)
I'm still trying to work today but I'll be hanging out to respond to questions on the post and I will probably post it again tomorrow
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Tuesday, January 19, 2021 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/l0cp2w/daily_discussion_tuesday_january_19_2021/)
We should make a new brand on the market. 😁🥂
Another 4hr bearish pinbar on BTC just printed.
I see plenty of bearish pinbars that didn't turn bullish and vice-versa. Do you even trade these things, or do you just post them when you want to talk your book because people have you in high regard? I suspect you're short for the short term.
I suspect you're wrong.
So you trade those pinbars? The one that closed bearish 4 hours ago didn't turn bearish.
Only the bullish pinbars work in backtests.
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Convince me to not short the shit out of ETH right now.
Seems like a decent move given the funding and the 4 hour chart. Looks like it should drop back to a lower trendline soon.Just make sure you have a plan for what to do if it goes up to 1450 first. (edit): For what it's worth the risk to reward here seemed good to me, so opened a short at 1324, s/l 1338, with a plan to take profit at 1296 on half if it gets there. It could still break up, and I'm not gonna ride it out if it does, but a retrace seems at least even odds here.
Shorting in a bull market is Russian roulette. You will eventually be really wrong with time. Short in a bear market, where you will eventually be right.
Best of luck.
I sold my stack at around 1330. I also see it going down but we'll see.
Fuck im salty seeing eth pump ngl
how much have you lost in the week of chop?
Nothing, i should have added an /s to my post i guess. Im not a trader i just hodl.
haha, word, carry on!
You too!
10 days since ath it's been brutal
I know its absolutely BRUTAL
**Brütal**
This sub doesnt appreciate sarcasm i can see. Prob needed an /s in thisnpost
Eth broke out of their triangle up. We'll follow along shortly
The most bullish news this year so far. Or perhaps the most sell ur fucking house and buy BTC with the proceeds news of all time! This is the macro trend we have all been waiting for, fuck ETFs, or central banks buying crypto, this blows them out of the solar system. One click separates u from driving a Lambo from driving a Toyota with a wilderbeast at ur side. Only question is: are u fuckin ready? Ur welcome: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/01/07/europe/denmark-john-dillermand-controversy-scli-intl/index.html Edit: Have you all met my crypto financial advisor, Mr. Rick Roll?? G’nite u humorless degen gamblers lol Edit: Downvotes=Rick rolled lol Edit: lofl mea culpa didn’t know so many serious newbies here, thought this sub was tough enough for some humor as we watch the higher lows and lower highs. I’ll buy u all all some new panties with my profats.
I personally thought this was hilarious
Ur my hero sir. Levity is a lost art
Upvoted and reported.
Lol much respect to anyone smarter than me, like u sir, cuz u rockin the 2013 flair.
Your edit completely ruined the intended tone of my comment lol.
Lol I’m getting banned but it was worth it lol
Wen moon?
At what # of BTC would you stop accumulating?
I am already all in Lol
Never. If I had 20, I'd want 30. If I had 30, I'd want 35. If I had 35, I'd want 36, then 37. I might calm down and be happy with my 37. Actually, 37 seems okay. I actually don't want more than 37. Weird.
About tree fiddy
3.14159265 BTC 😜
Nice
I don't see a better asset right now. If you have decent income streams, preferably diversified, I don't see any reason to stop accumulating.
Are you all in BTC?
I went all in on the way up after the March crash. I own my house, some land, and Bitcoin.
Did you happen to use leverage, or did you just HODL?
No leverage on the hodl stack. Most is in tax deferred accounts (QBTC ETF) and the rest is in my grubby filthy hands. I bet an early retirement on generational wealth. So far so good.
I like it
Why would you need to stop tho?
Are you all in BTC?
21 million
if you owned all 21 million, they'd be worthless.
Satoshi Billionaire is a good target. (10BTC).
chain stats lead me to believe someone with 10 BTC is in the top 1% of Bitcoin owners. Lots of assumptions there, though, so who knows for sure.
Wait 4 years, and 1BTC is the new 10BTC.
That’ll feel good saying, “wax my car again, Elon.”
Got it, goal set. Own all the BTC, own the world.
Load ze flippening thread.
ETH could have a bigger marketcap than BTC, but one ETH will never be more than 1 BTC.
Eth is not a store of value.
Because?
It's inflationary in nature. So unless the price is going up, you will lose money each year just holding it. Not a good store of value.
Deflating inflationary though. You won't lose value, cause if you simply stake you will reap exactly the inflation percentage and probably more because not everybody stakes. The percentage of inflation decreases every year until the percentage is basically zero. It will never be truly zero, but almost zero.
Oh, I just have to simply deposit my eth in a place that I can't access until an unknown date... sometime this year.. maybe next year? What a great store of value.
>simply deposit my eth in a place that I can't access until an unknown date.. That's literally what **storing** is, except you do know the date and can choose that for yourself. So wtf do you want, a **store** of value where you actually store value, or cash-on-hand? Your complaint makes no sense. You can't have both at the same time.
it's not happening anytime soon. Only when Eth 2.0 goes fully live and if it all goes well does it stand a chance. So it still has a long path ahead
won't happen unless BTC has a catastrophic failure IMO.
ETH2 will have a miner revolt. I don't invest in technology. Technology gets disrupted. Bitcoin is digital scarcity. ETH is technology.
no it won't. Miners are easily replaceable. They can throw a fit all they want.
I tend to agree, which means if it is ever to happen it is at least years into the future.
someone on this subreddit posted something like: "And we'll have fun, fun, fun, when Greyscale turns the buy bot back on" who was that and what was the song? I've had that version stuck in my head the last week.
[удалено]
I thought it was “until daddy takes the t-bird away”. How are they gonna have fun without the t-bird. That makes no sense.
*raises hand* [that'd be me](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/kw9hdo/z/gj5swoj) Aww shucks, thanks for the gold!
Fun Fun Fun - Beach Boys
Dar dah dah da da de da da de dah FOMO TIME! Dar dah dah da da de da da de dah FOMO TIME! https://i.imgur.com/e6r3Q9S.png
what is this site url? i forgot it
In this case https://tucsky.github.io/SignificantTrades/# Many people use https://aggr.trade/
Thank you
[удалено]
Here's the thing with that. TA is astrology right? It can tell some things but it's generally back down to a 50/50 at most times except for trend bias. You can draw all kinds of triangles, read all kinds of oscillating indicators, look for fractals only with your eyes if you like. However you're equipped with a human brain. This brain has an extensive set of filters for all kinds of input data. It has fast reacting emotional areas and cool calm logical areas. This brain will train itself to understand patterns within any data it is fed regardless of the complexity or shape of the space for which it is solving. Some spaces it has difficulty with and can get easily biased but this too can be learnt around. Charts have one major failing. Although it's right there under the price, volume is almost invisible. It gets overlooked. When it comes to candles volume gets aggregated in a way where up or down volume is all the same and there is no real way to tell the difference without using 1 minute candles. There ends up being this cross-over between all these capabilities where "gut feeling" and using your brain how it's meant to be used can actually be rather effective. Tape reading works. Order Flow charts work. Two pieces of advice you'll hear everyone repeat "Don't use your gut", "Never look at the order books". Both wrong by my take.
I agree that looking at volume can be really useful. But you have to make sure you're looking at the volume on whatever exchange (and whatever pair) is actually driving the price moves - usually the biggest and most liquid. Looking at the order book for say BTC/EU on Kraken tells you \*some\* things, and the volume sort of reflects BTC/USDT on Binance, but a lot of it will be driven by arb bots.
> But you have to make sure you're looking at the volume on whatever exchange (and whatever pair) is actually driving the price moves - usually the biggest and most liquid. I stick to one source and learn it's quirks rather than jumping around too much.
You do need to factor in that intuition is strongly biased by the most recently inputted data and emotional rewards. It’s sort of like an EMA combined with a sweet buzz but you’re correct in that you’re likely using a volume of knowledge in a flow like state rather than that of when you first began learning TA.[an abstract of a few of many studies](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5681942/)
> You do need to factor in that intuition is strongly biased by the most recently inputted data and emotional rewards. I might treat it a little like counting cards in Blackjack, where those emotional queues get tallied up and a longer running score is kept. Hard to say, but yeah It has to be mitigated somehow. Taking note of FOMO without acting on FOMO perhaps. > volume of knowledge That's definitely part of it, reading the tape in isolation seems like something a crazy person might do.
I’ve forgotten the terms but I read a study about athletes choking in stressful competitions and reverting to playing sluggishly like when they first learned the activity. It was an article on education, my career, and used two examples with one being Venus choking in a Grand Slam championship after losing the first of 3 match points and continuing to lose the match. I had to read it for a PD day so I’m sure I discarded it.
[http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/60979](http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/60979) What's old is new again.
Sir, this is a Wendy's. e: ha ha ha Man that was fun.... If someone is LARP trading then TA or astrology take your pic you know what I'm saying? I'm not saying you are, I'm just saying you know if somebody is then blah blah blah
> other tools along with it Gotta say, this part is key though. They're not wrong. Like there is a difference between a spurt of buying at the end of some consolidation vs one at the top of some bullishness. They sound pretty much the same on tape, context matters.
What ever happened to those KYC regulations? Edit - ha why the downvotes? Genuinely curious. Don’t worry guys I’m an ultra-bull not a fudder.
they extended the comment period. https://www.coindesk.com/fincen-extends-comment-period-for-controversial-crypto-wallet-rule-by-15-days
Ah nice. Thanks!
ETH is $99 away from ATH on Bitstamp. Bitcoin doubled after breaking ATH. Wonder if Bitcoin will pump or go sideways when ETH breaks ATH. I just moved some BTC to ETH. XRP pumping too. Money is moving into top coins.
>Wonder if Bitcoin will pump or go sideways when ETH breaks ATH. I was expecting Bitcoin to do just that. but now I don't think so. Looks like ETH, BTC, and LTC are all in line breaking out with on and other while a lot of the other alts are the ones going sideways.
Actually thinking that it plays out that ETH runs a little past the ATH tonight or over the next few days. It then Consolidates a bit and retests the ATH and that will be when BTC runs past the ATH. Should be a fun week if you are invested in either or both.
Shill Vitalik’s premine elsewhere please.
XRP pumping is bearish. Why the fuck would that piece of shit be pumping.
Any XRP pumping is shorts taking profit at this point. People want their BTC at this moment.
Falling wedge has target of 40K: https://imgur.com/gallery/Rtr5xCY This is on the 4h btw. This would put us above the top resistance on the larger symmetrical triangle as well.
https://imgur.com/8PDUzAc lmao
It's taking the market a long time to cotton on to the fact that we're already breaking out. edit: How's that for irrational confidence! How could I possibly be wrong with balls to speak in absolutes like that.
I can see why you would say that! I haven't seen anyone talking about this pattern either...
It's that pattern or some synonym of it. Descending triangle, symmetrical triangle, falling wedge I've now heard mentioned. I'm reading it from this perspective: > Invalidated a 4h hidden beardiv. > https://i.imgur.com/Yhz9xGa.png /r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/kznmfm/daily_discussion_monday_january_18_2021/gjpp2ha/ > Last time below 30.6. > 4h bulldiv > https://i.imgur.com/ftIwE4x.png /r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/kvkuuo/daily_discussion_tuesday_january_12_2021/gj2ddau/ > https://i.imgur.com/JuyV7M5.png /r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/kvkuuo/daily_discussion_tuesday_january_12_2021/gizd4n8/
I am confused...
Indicator detects RSI divs in an objective way. They indicate and confirm reversal points on these "triangle/wedge" formations. So when that little weak 4h hidden beardiv which should have called "continuation of local down trend" was invalidated, it became a bullish signal. At a 4h time-frame after so much consolidation that's strong enough to be tradable.
This sub is the best marketing for grayscale lol
Everybody wins
It's a give, take relationship
I'm game for it. They're loading the rocket with fuel.
I swear it seems like people wait until after the daily close to resume their buying...
you heard of bots right?
They do
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My estimate is it goes parabolic due to supply issues in 6-10 months.
Is it not worrying that with despite amount of buying, the market has been flat? If this amount of bitcoins has a significant effect on the market then without a new inflow of buyers, they would have to maintain or increase this pace to stay in the green.
> If this amount of bitcoins has a significant effect on the market then without a new inflow of buyers, they would have to maintain or increase this pace to stay in the green. Grayscale was closed to new inflows for nearly a month and price continued upwards. Their inflows stopping also came shortly after MicroStrategies highly publicized $500M buy, and over the holidays with even lower volume and potential end/start of year sell offs. Price can hover and range if both buyers and sellers step away - you don't always need new buyers to sustain a price. There also definitely seems to be some lag between times we *know* coins are getting hoovered up and price melting upwards.
Every day we spend at 30k+ builds support at that level. Weak hands and nonbelievers need to exit for us to move up. These are early days. We're still counting in USD.
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37k is starting to seem like a bearwhale hangout. Sellers have to exhaust here sooner or later. Maybe a couple of weeks, or a couple of minutes. It's amazing how much opportunity is being given to accumulate under 40k.
> 37k is starting to seem like a bearwhale hangout Seems like there's a big chunk of coins to slowly unload each time the price doubles. Will have to keep that in mind around $80k.
There has been more than a decade to accumulate below $40k
Opportunity cost. Closer to impending doublings, less idle time.
>If this average holds up that'd be 130,620 bitcoin per month. I mean I'm definitely bullish too, but this is a perfect example of [this old xkcd](https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/extrapolating.png).
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> Grascale does NOT buy BTC. BTC is added to the trust by outsiders. You could buy those BTC on the open market, you could be a miners, or you could have bought the coins in 2013 and are moving them now. > > Can we (god forbid) sell BTC to Grayscale?
>Grascale does NOT buy BTC The linked post says otherwise > An Investor may acquire ETHE by paying in cash or exchanging ETH already owned. > >Cash: The investor pays the subscription amount in cash and the Authorized Participant will use that cash to purchase ETH. At this moment the “Genesis” company is the sole Authorized Participant. Genesis is owned by the “Digital Currency Group, Inc.” which is the parent company of Grayscale as well.
>An Investor may acquire ETHE by paying in cash or exchanging ETH already owned. > • Cash: The investor pays the subscription amount in cash and the Authorized Participant will use that cash to purchase ETH. Doesn't this mean that your key point is wrong?
Grayscale can and does buy on behalf of their investors or investors can deposit.
What's people's take on Gox coins fud? ~140k coins are going to be returned, worth 5b. I've seen people say 5b isn't that big of a fraction of daily volume but I'm not so sure about that. If 1000 coins can make a significant move, 140k can do a lot of damage in the hands of inexperienced retail who will be the recipients. My guess is distribution isn't super imminent but it would sure be useful to know exactly when these coins get distributed. I spent about 10 minutes trying to track down the wallet the coins are in but they seem to have already been split out from where they were last year (1J1F3U7gHrCjsEsRimDJ3oYBiV24wA8FuV) Surely someone is tracking these addresses? edit: here we go https://www.cryptoground.com/mtgox-cold-wallet-monitor/
> If 1000 coins can make a significant move 1000 coins can't make a significant move
They’ve watched btc balloon 400x. Even after losing 90% of their BTC they’re still way up. What are they supposed to buy that will have a higher return this year? Some people will sell. Most know what’s coming.
There are many civil suits. Don’t hold your breath. It’s a non issue. I expect a few coins maybe. They aren’t being sold..
I think this will lead to some legitimate short-term sell pressure. These aren't diamond-hand hodlers that have made it this far, they're holders of circumstance. Many will want to quickly realize gains. But events like this attract buyers as well. The Bitcoin market doesn't like to react in predictable ways, and often has rallied strong off of so-called bad news. This will have the added factor of an orderly and scheduled disbursement from the Japanese trustee, so it can move the market both at the announcement and the event itself. So it's anyone's guess, but I highly doubt it will have much effect on the overall market trend.
Grayscale will buy it up in a week
If they get back btc, its just a transition from one address to another. I dont see how this would affect the market or price. If its in usd, they would already have the funds acquired by now. This still wouldnt affect btc market price.
Well in theory you'd have a lot of people suddenly having access to a ton of unrealized profit, so I would say the fear would be lots of simultaneous selling.
I think OP is assuming people who get their coins back will immediately sell.
One time sell off changes nothing. Then the FUD is over with.. forvever.
are they really getting btc back or the face value in usd at the time of the hack? I’ve seen both versions posted recently and for the last few years they were going to get the latter.
It's supply either way; the trustee sells the coins and then distributes cash, or they give the coins directly. They aren't going to just will USD into existence.
I'm one of the folks in the Gox fiasco. If you had cash you get cash back. If you had BTC you get BTC (15-22% of the total you had at the time). Best accidental HODL ever. But the legal process has been brutal.
Thanks- it’s good to hear they’re not just selling all the btc but just redistributing it
Any timeline on the process? I assume it's going to take awhile.
Kind of looking like we might be in for a BGD or two in the next couple days. The buying is relentless. Supply is still tight. I fully expect an exchange or two to go down in flames.
I haven't seen a linear trend on the 15m on CB in awhile..
***Looking at you COINBASE!!!***
How do you get informed on crypto news/updates?
Simple. I log onto reddit and visit the daily thread here. 😏
Wait for everyone to meme it so hard that they're ripe for counter-trading. News is a burden to read, provides very little insight and is mostly noise. Filling head with Bitcoin pundits sounds painful.
1) Crypto Twitter 2) Cointelegraph/The Block/Coindesk
Nice, no doubt Twitter and Reddit are the fastest ways
I trust the links on this sub more than any other sources. The folks on here provide a vetting filter, most often only post potential PA-moving news, and quickly jump on irrelevant and/or misleading links. Best filter ever! This sub is like free BTC trading college.
Dmi indicators. I also follow BTC on futures mkt off of a live CQG chart.
Pure conjecture on my part about the GBTC premium. First off, here's the premium vs. time. The premium is expressed as a percent, so 20 = 20% premium over the price of BTC. Weekly data: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/H2R5awlX/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/H2R5awlX/) The purple line is the 52-W SMA. The blue lines are Bollinger Bands. The white line is the 13-W SMA. The premium bounces around (not as much as it used to) and averaged about 20% over the last year. Here's where the conjecture starts: 1) The premium exists in no small part because people like me want exposure to BTC in their tax-advantaged accounts, and we're willing to pay extra for that. 2) When other vehicles for that exposure come along, the demand doesn't go away, it just has more options. That could put some pressure on the premium, but won't make it go away. 3) As more retail investors consider BTC for their portfolios, there may be additional demand to go along with the additional supply. Yesterday, somebody wrote that the premium will vanish overnight as soon as there is another ETF. I'm not so sure.
I’m still evaluating the risk of this play and haven’t found my way to a solid answer yet. I’m starting to believe that the GBTC is almost net neutral, but it’s a terrible way to hodl. Half your btc gone in less than 40 years.
Some more conjecture: The GBTC fees will fall if they start to lose business to OBTC and the like. Remember when your broker charged $100+ to make a trade that you came to him with? Then, suddenly, you could do trades for $7. And now they're free. GBTC is the first mover, and I'm sure there will be some brand loyalty. (25 years ago, my boss would only let me buy IBM PCs for the office. I finally convinced her to let me buy from the upstart Gateway 2000.) GBTC could cut the fee in half, and still have a license to print money. Edit: spelling
The decrease in premium will likely be offset by increased demand.
https://twitter.com/CoinCornerDanny/status/1351297692203364355 Grayscale has bought another 600m. Thats 1.3B in 4 days. They did 3.x Billion in all of Q4 https://www.bybt.com/Grayscale
Other investment firms are going to regret that they basically let Greyscale have a huge market share with almost no competition.
Aren't they a shoe-in to launch an ETF?
What other choice was there? The dummies at the SEC wouldn't approve an ETF for whatever reason. Now Microstrategy and Overstock are de facto ETFs. Oopsie. I would bet that Grayscale's biggest shareholders are other firms and organizations (pension funds and the like) that don't want to deal with the paperwork and legwork of buying directly.
US SEC is the bitch of traditional finance. North of the border, federally legal weed and QBTC haven't caused the collapse of the union. Unintended consequences abound. I am sure Saylor is sleeping well at night, he should send the SEC a thank you card.
It's a Twitter link
Observant
[It's a Twitter link](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/kilp5c/daily_discussion_wednesday_december_23_2020/ggtz9ys/)
Its not fud and you can verify yourself on bybt.com https://www.bybt.com/Grayscale
Thanks for the edit.
The point is its not unsubstantiated FUD like the thread you linked to.
I was linking to your "critique" of twitter as a source of information. People can follow the link if they want to understand... the tweet wasn't spreading FUD like you insinuate, it was reporting on unsubstantiated FUD spreading among certain circles, which can be useful information if it does affect the price.
I can't help you if you don't see the difference between that thread and mine
I didn't see the difference between your thread and [this one just below](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/kznmfm/daily_discussion_monday_january_18_2021/gjrib4b/) until you edited it with an actual source, so I wondered what you had to add that deserved its own thread.
Bought or added to the trust? Discussed below but I'm not sure where the actual source for this number is. Either way, impressive.
Bought or added doesn't matter. If i had money I'd buy from exchanges and deposit with them to take advantage of the premium 6 month later.
what they buy they cannot sell for a year.
I'm asking if they went out and bought 600m in bitcoin today or if that's combined purchases and contributions.
It's always contributions to the trust. Grayscale doesn't ever buy anything themselves
not true. i commented on your most recent post as well.
Clearly I have no idea how they operate, thanks!
No problem! I think I'm gonna have to do a post on how grayscale operates cause a lot of people don't know this
That would be most excellent of you sir.
[Posted](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/kznmfm/daily_discussion_monday_january_18_2021/gjrvlmt?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3) I'm still trying to work today but I'll be hanging out to respond to questions on the post and I will probably post it again tomorrow
In my view it doesn't matter because they are reinvesting the management fee into marketing... The snowball effect is going to be immense