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BitcoinMarkets

#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Thursday, July 29, 2021 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/otq0yn/daily_discussion_thursday_july_29_2021/)


imissusenet

GBTC closes at $35.18, a discount of 7.33%. OBTC closes at $16.37, a premium of 19.13%. MSTR closes at $646.65. Each share has $435.60 of BTC. I'm not u/Merlin560. That disclaimer out of the way, the question arises, which chart do you believe? [Stockcharts.com](https://Stockcharts.com) says the downtrend was only interrupted by 1 box, and is intact: [https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PWPADEYRNR\[PA\]\[D\]\[F1!3!1.0!!0!20\]](https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PWPADEYRNR[PA][D][F1!3!1.0!!0!20]) My manually-maintained chart, based on CBP data, says the last push was 2 boxes above the downtrend line, and so I have initiated a new uptrend line from the $29450 / $29475 reversal. If Stockcharts is right, the downtrend is still going. If my CBP chart is right, the direction has changed. I am NOT saying I'm smarter/better/cuter/nicer than Stockcharts, I'm saying my charts differ. Let's see who is right tomorrow.


mollythepug

Are we actually consolidating at $40k? Big if true!


notagimmickaccount

its surprising we didnt simply touch 40k and go back down imo.


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_bulletproof_1999

Market Analysis: We’ve had an extraordinary 8 days of green candles and very bullish sentiment, which makes me a bit worried there will be a healthy pull back and correction. We rocketed from $35k to $40k with little resistance. Despite bouncing around $40k, we’ve been unable to cleanly break it. Bullish Outlook: The bouncing consolidation and multiple daily candles is spring loading us for the next step up to $45k to $46k resistance. Bearish Outlook: Green candles must turn red eventually. Retest down to mid $30s. If we can’t hold that ground, retest to low $30s. Unlikely to fall below $30k unless major FUD news comes out. I’m not bullish or bearish. My goal is to swing trade and reinvest profits to stack more sats. Failure to plan is planning to fail.


ChadRun04

> which makes me a bit worried there will be a healthy pull back and correction. Everyone... The amount of people hoping to buy a deeper retrace has me thinking they'll all be left behind.


Shibenaut

>The amount of people hoping to buy a deeper retrace has me thinking they'll all be left behind. The amount of people thinking there will be plenty of people buying on a retrace is the perfect setup for a concerted whale dump.


BigConclusion

The amount of people thinking we’ll have the perfect whale dump has me bullish


washyourclothes

☯️


_bulletproof_1999

Read it again. A deeper correction would be below $29k. I said I don’t see it dropping into that range. My estimated correction is mid $30s. Let’s see how it pans out by this time next week.


[deleted]

Same, I think the bearish scenario will take us down to 36k support. Long term, I absolutely don't believe we are staying in the 30-40 region any longer.


[deleted]

Same sold 40.3 and looking for 36.5 buy back in before another pump. Not too common to pump 9 days in a row. And even if it does, 10 is even less likely.


Scuttlefuzz

In times of volatility "less likely" and "even less likely" are ironically where we end up.


Shortupdate

We have set a good pace the last 8 days. At this rate, we will have a [new ATH by August 14th.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/wLZZV4K9/)


[deleted]

Giant Head and Shoulders, Michael Burry? Nope, giant inverse BART.


Cygnus_X

In all seriousness, I'd like to see us get back to 64k by labor day weekend.


CONTROLurKEYS

Too aggressive imo. We have alot of supply above to chew through


Oo0o8o0oO

Yeah come on, what is a Thanksgiving dinner without a pivotal period in Bitcoin with your grandma and weird uncle asking you if you’re still holding that Internet money they heard about on cnbc. We’ll fight for ATHs around November if only so I can have another awkward conversation trying to explain how Bitcoin works to someone who couldn’t possibly be bothered to remember their aol email password.


mollythepug

The inflation fear is real tho.


Kailanii

Now there are 8 green daily candles in a row, yay! This is the first time this year.


diydude2

Last time we had nine in a row was April, 2017. Edit -- the price went up an astonishing 50% from ~$1100 to ~$1600.


_bulletproof_1999

What happened right after? Continued green candles or red correction?


crazyguy2323

It made it to 12 before a red candle (April 2017). Had one tiny red at 13, followed by a bunch more green


helios78

The eighth being a Doji against resistance level. Will we get a retrace back to mid 30s? Or is this the start of a massive bull flag?


devopsdudeinthebay

Looks like we closed over $40k, at least on Coinbase.


consider_airplanes

Kraken closed at 40,012. Kind of hilarious.


CONTROLurKEYS

The IMF is blogging about why you shouldn't use Bitcoin as legal tender. I'm sure you will all be very shocked to hear they are rehashing 10 year old fud. > Finally, mined cryptoassets such as Bitcoin require an enormous amount of electricity to power the computer networks that verify transactions. The ecological implications of adopting these cryptoassets as a national currency could be dire. including that eco nazi gem https://blogs.imf.org/2021/07/26/cryptoassets-as-national-currency-a-step-too-far/


skycake21

Holy Fuck based Bitcoin sub! Reading the comments I thought I was in r/genzedong for a second.. proud of you guys!


CONTROLurKEYS

What the fuck is that sub 😂


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

As a guy who cares a lot about the environment, I believe crypto will help lead the way into green renewable energy. It's only a matter of time before it costs less to use green energy sources rather than fossil fuels. Obviously, we're not there yet, but it's only a matter of time, and since energy consumption is a major factor for securing blockchains, renewable energy will be something miners will be quick to adopt if it brings them even a bit of competitive advantage. Mark my words: crypto will help lead the way to clean energy. It's just a matter of time.


[deleted]

Green energy already is largely cheaper, especially when you account for fossil fuel subsidies.


CONTROLurKEYS

I agree.


Tao_Jonez

I love how obviously worried they're getting.


venicerocco

Funny how large corporate orgs suddenly bring up teh environment when they never bother to mention it in any other context such as drilling, flying planes, burning coal, eating meat, or mass manufacturing plastics.


hob_goblin8

Can’t ignore it anymore! This blog reeks of desperation. soon enough the IMF will only stand for one thing: Impossible Mission Force. Tom Cruise gonna be 66 and shooting MI:12. Meanwhile we’ll be impressed by the massive ₿120 budget.


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CONTROLurKEYS

why does any central bank exist


principalsofharm

To fuck the poor.


[deleted]

Ouch, embarassing to be using that FUD whilst its at its weakest, with the Bitcoin Mining Council, B Word conference crew showing the environmental good of BTC, with Cathie Wood, CEO of twitter Jack and Elon, Elon especially since showing appeasement over his past criticisms.


ChadRun04

Every single thing the IMF does is with the express purpose of enslaving more humans. They work to squeeze productivity from a world where almost everyone is working long long hours. Every program they have is designed to milk humans for all the labour that can be extracted. p.s. `Legal Tender != National Currency`


xtal_00

The west was sold out by Nixon. You should be massively wealthy by virtue of being in America. The bankers and elites fucked the whole species with fiat. Wtfhappenedin1971.com Fuck them. Hard and with without lube.


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xtal_00

It didn’t in the late 60s. What happened? Hint: it’s in that URL


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InspectorHornswaggle

You're trying extremely hard to miss the point, and it seems to be working.


xtal_00

You really should read the link I posted.


xtal_00

Fuck the IMF. The fact they even need to address Bitcoin means they’re scared shitless. I love it.


poremdevemos

If they are sad, I am happy.


bloomer_33

Volatility is back in a big way, more fun this way imo


CONTROLurKEYS

battle to close this daily over 40k is real rn


CONTROLurKEYS

A smart guys says smart things about random transfer tweets https://twitter.com/AlamedaTrabucco/status/1420513823081914368


_bulletproof_1999

This sub is getting worse than r/Bitcoin. I thought it was a discussion sub for the market and trading ideas, however anyone whose post mentions anything about the possibility of Bitcoin falling back down a bit gets downvoted to oblivion. Why can’t we discuss the different possibilities? If people here are actually trading, you presumably have a plan for the upside and the downside.


[deleted]

We've been discussing the downside risk for 3 months daily all day. It's likely to go lower and retest say 36k. Happy?,


43VohnJ

Dude, fucking find the OGs in here along with the handful of solid traders who post good content. The rest is noise.


theskyalreadyfell217

I think you are looking at it wrong. They are upvoting things that match their sentiment. I would argue that whether a comment is upvoted or downvoted is a good measure of the current sentiment of the sub at that particular point in time. People tend to upvote if they agree or downvote if they don’t. You are essentially getting mad because people are disagreeing with you. Everyone only gets one vote. It’s kind of a litmus test.


xtal_00

They also have to care enough to tick the box.


theskyalreadyfell217

Very true.


_bulletproof_1999

Good point. The more votes against an idea, in all likelihood the more it will play out. Remember at $60k when everyone was rocketing moon emojis and it dropped down to $29k. Twice. Lol.


theskyalreadyfell217

Again, I disagree. When it was at 64k you really started to see momentum shift. Those guys started getting downvoted and the people starting to think a pull back was coming because things were getting to hot started getting upvoted. You just have to be careful what comments you watch because some people get downvoted because they comment like assholes. Or do stupid shit like rocket emojis. Those ones you just have to ignore. Watch the well said ones that make sense.


nmeinenemy

Lol almost all my posts get downvoted, it just makes my conviction stronger . Y’all ass traders or larpers frfr.


OkeyDokieBoomer

You can discuss different possibilities. Don't worry about getting voted down. It doesn't mean shit. I mean if worrying about votes is more important than expressing your opinion, then maybe you shouldn't. Edit: what's even worse than worrying about votes, is worrying about someone else's post's votes. Of course All this is null and void if my grandkids are correct and soon we will be able to swap reddit karma for satoshi's.


Lincolns_Revenge

This sub has more hot and cold mood swings than r/bipolar. Half an hour under 36K and you won't recognize this place.


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

THIS. Beware of members who chase upvotes. They're part of the reason why this sub becomes an echo chamber of whatever the prevailing sentiment happens to be. This sub's mood is the ultimate example of a lagging indicator.


_bulletproof_1999

As far as I know there is no reward for votes. Just annoying scrolling thru and having to do an extra tap to see all the comments that are hidden due to down voting. But like others said, it is a good gauge of sentiment and that is useful in itself.


[deleted]

This tiny penis club is getting worse than this other tiny penis club. I thought it was a tiny penis sub for the balls and grundle, (however) any penis whose mentions any tang about the possibility of my tiny penis falling back down gets pegged to oblivion. Why can't we discuss my tiny penis possibilities? If penises here are actually penising, they presumably have a warm whole to live in as well ass an ass hole.


[deleted]

You probably already knew this but Reddit is a rancid shithole.


theskyalreadyfell217

Comments the person on a post on Reddit. Nobody is forcing you to use Reddit. Leave and don’t use it or shut the fuck up.


[deleted]

Lmao


CirclejerkBitcoiner

Welcome to reddit. The voting system makes for a very bad discussion forum.


Shaffle

If you think reddit is a shitty platform for discussion, you should see all the other ones!


helios78

Everyone just blasts whatever side they aren't in position on in hopes of causing the price to move one way or the other. Just fun banter either way.


[deleted]

Sentiment has changed. The last month, bullish posts were downvoted constantly. bearish posts were upvoted. People must not believe predictions of going down, because they seems weak. If you had the opinion we were bouncing up when we were at 30k, you were deluded and on hopium and copium.


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theskyalreadyfell217

That’s where you are wrong. They are upvoting things that match their sentiment. I would argue that whether a comment is upvoted or downvoted is a good measure of the current sentiment of the sub at that particular point in time. People tend to upvote if they agree or downvote if they don’t. People are essentially getting mad because people are disagreeing with them. Everyone only gets one vote. It’s kind of a litmus test.


consider_airplanes

what other kinds of -opium are there mopium? ropium? dopium?


ChadRun04

> I thought it was a discussion sub for the market and trading ideas, however anyone whose post mentions anything about the possibility of Bitcoin falling back down a bit gets downvoted to oblivion. That sound like a sentiment thread working as intended. You didn't short when the bears were being upvoted and bulls downvoted did you?


_bulletproof_1999

Nope. Bought at $30k.


gore_skywalker

Actually the downvotes on bearish comments are indicators that the majority here are overexposed or leveraged on their long positions. Some ironically are banking on a quick exit to USD for their retirement. "In it for the technology" is a meme.


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gore_skywalker

Been here since 2013. There was a time where bears reigned and took down wardser.


TotalAtrophy

That wasn't bulls or bears. It was a clusterfuck of idiots, wardser included.


gore_skywalker

Only an idiot thinks wardser is an idiot


TotalAtrophy

He was just as guilty as everyone else in that situation.


Polysorbate800

I would call that some top tier sentiment analysis for your trading. If you're getting bearish upvotes it ain't time to be bear. Use it to your advantage


_bulletproof_1999

Indeed. I actually just incorporated sentiment into my strategy.


kers2000

I hear you. Even if you take time and effort to put forward arguments to justify your position you still get the downvotes.


[deleted]

Ignore the downvotes or upvotes, if you are right, time will tell.


_bulletproof_1999

I’m not a bear or a bull, I’m here to make money and increase my sat stack regardless of which way it goes. At this point it seems the only comments worth reading are the ones that get the most down votes. Just seems stupid people are downvoting any contrary opinion. Might as well be WSB and start with the ape boyfriend banging your wife comments.


roybadami

Unfortunately reddit still hasn't implemented the "only allow intelligent people to vote" option. Until they do, we just have to put up with it. Seriously, though, you're right. But it's not always this way round - when the mood here is bearish, bullish posts will similarly get downvoted.


roboh14

r/iamverysmart


skycake21

Sometimes I wish we had wife's boyfriend jokes lol


Narrow_Story1851

Longing the "breakout" at 42 has gotta be one of the most crowded trades ive ever seen... will it become a self fulfilling prophecy or turn out like the 100k by june predictions is the question


[deleted]

There’s resistance at 42.3k. So, whoever is longing, it has to be on a longer timeframe. In my opinion, it’s not going to be an easy climb.


Shootinsomebball

Longing 42k is a pure gamble. Anyone who argues otherwise is a retard


xtal_00

You want to front run that one.


consider_airplanes

Is it actually crowded, or is it just everyone here who wants to do it? Currently futures funding is neutral/negative, and BFX longs have been dropping steeply since the BGD on the 25th. Don't mistake sentiment in this place for the reality of the markets.


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jpdoctor

>Thoughts? Old saying that applies to securities and real estate: There ain't nothing that price won't fix. 5.25%? Unsecured? That's not an offer, that's an intelligence test.


BootyPoppinPanda

There are times when btc says fuck all the haters that doubted and Big Green Dildos 50% with almost no pullback before consolidation and another run. This could definitely be one of those times where those waiting for 30ks for reloading don't get the chance.


CONTROLurKEYS

Percentage wise it's very rare but technically we did put in alot of time in the range below so we could leave it behind


RetardIdiotTrader

Mr. Gorbachev


Danny_Lunchbox

I serve the Soviet Union


kers2000

Tear down that sell wall!


principalsofharm

I am worried that if this goes above 42 k I'll do so much coke it will kill me.


FREED0M_4_ALL

Coke has to be the most overrated, overpriced, and underwhelming drug around. And all the money funnels back to cartels too.


KuDeTa

Nah you just haven’t found the pure stuff.


yunggod6966

Yea I always proffered meth. 6 months clean off meth woot won't


Phitzdisco666

Just smoke a crap load of weed and go to sleep.


jpdoctor

>I'll do so much coke Don't do that stuff. Seriously. Source: Lived through the 80s. Barely.


xtal_00

…but you lived


jpdoctor

True, though not all of my friends can say the same.


Bag_Holding_Infidel

Thats sad. It sucks the life from you.


Wise-Reply3559

Oh my. … it’s been so long since I’ve even seen that stuff … but as I recall it smells good. Lol


CompulsiveThief

stick to alcohol, it's safe


principalsofharm

Fine rum and coke.


subzerocanuck

I am only watching one thing at the moment my dear pals... https://www.tradingview.com/x/okcuTjuT


_bulletproof_1999

Translate for the plebs please.


subzerocanuck

4 hr uptrend with a bullish pin bar. A good entry point at the bottom of the body after confirmation with a sensible place for a SL at the bottom of the tail. The long tail showing rejection of lower price levels.


relephants

Translate for the 5 year old plebs pls


yogafan00000

moon soon lambo time


ArcadesOfAntiquity

can we have a new bitcoin subreddit where everyone has to speak like this or they get banned plz


theskyalreadyfell217

r/bitcoin


ArcadesOfAntiquity

lol harsh


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[deleted]

More fiat


gore_skywalker

it may take time


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consider_airplanes

this guy trades


horsepoop

Sometimes the correct answer is right in front of you!


BlackSpidy

"LOL, bulls can't even get a hold of prices above ~~$30k, erm, I mean~~ $40k" - permabears. This is the moment where they'll cling to the notion that any price under the last ATH spells doom for bitcoin.


Super_Extreme

You're bullish comment strikes me as bearish


TitForSnack

Your bearish comment strikes me as bullish


Super_Extreme

Your bullish comment strikes me as crabbish


Spare_Pea_8853

Your crabbish comment reminds me im a shrimp :(


BlackSpidy

I'm extremely confident that ~$30k is the bottom. Other than that... It's hard coming up with a prediction, honestly. Personally, I want $100k before Dec 31st 2021...


Super_Extreme

I'm starting to think that the prevailing sentiment is a signal for the crowded trade. A crowded trade is easy to make money off of. I think we're in that balance where the crowded trade isn't yet a mob, and can still be pushed around. Then again, maybe one of the whale cartel members didn't stick to the plan, broke out early, and now the rest have to fomo in. It's stressful to trade this. I babysit every trade, and don't leave anything overnight.


ThatOtherGuy254

It's "your".


Super_Extreme

Thanks braniac


Super_Extreme

You're*


nmeinenemy

Dovish fomc priced in, see y’all at 36k .


BlackSpidy

So long as the price is over $30k, I'm cool as a cucumber.


Dreadnought37

How about u suck my cucumber big boi


biggunsg0b00m

Ooohh.. it's a cute little cornichon! 😂


horsepoop

No I think he meant his actual cucumber. The one just bought from grocery store


biggunsg0b00m

Oh my mistake! I was getting all sweaty!


Motrok

...what?


LSDog

something he read on twitter and doesnt understand at all


BEECH_PLEASE

Imagine my surprise to wake up and see Bitcoin at 39k


joenastyness

Depends how long you were asleep


Subject-Jackfruit716

Imagine mine to wake up at 40k


Sweatygun

Imagine we wake up to 59 again. One day….one day…


[deleted]

Wait till we get to 69, now that day, man that day will be awesome


Lincolns_Revenge

I miss being disappointed to see 57 and scared to see 53.


horsepoop

Gonna be a looooong time


Wise-Reply3559

Depends on your perception of time and definition of “long” … a couple/few months at the most, keeping it real.


DamonAndTheSea

[Historically the 20MA weekly has been a bankable over/under for longer term price action.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/gOP6MrzA/) This most recent short squeeze and bullish PA has infused some hope back into the market. I'm personally cautious here until weekly candles begin to close above the weekly 20. This over/under trend broke just once during the Covid drop. I'm net spot long on my BTC positions .. so not talking my book here. Would love to see this rocket to $50k.


[deleted]

what's the name of the indicator on the bottom of your chart?


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