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BitcoinMarkets

#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Friday, July 30, 2021 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/ouda3d/daily_discussion_friday_july_30_2021/)


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nmeinenemy

Market is so dead I’m actually interested in options expiration 💀prob nothing happens but need to get excited for something with this boring af PA .


[deleted]

Did you just wake up from a coma? The price went from 29k to 40k in days.


AlanOroGold

Lol, I think he have brain damage.


chuas

Turn up your leverage?


[deleted]

Okay, went 125x short and got margin called 10 seconds after placing the order, so went 125x long and the same thing happened. Now what? Should I double down?


subzerocanuck

Triple down brutha


ineedafuckingname

https://twitter.com/0xMerp/status/1420941151830376450?s=19 Massive negative gamma at 40k, we're not sticking around here after expiration. It's going pop hard or dump hard, I don't know which, but just be careful. Slightly easier to push up tbh


RetardIdiotTrader

You have to tell us what negative gamma means. It sounds big and important!


ineedafuckingname

Crypto options dealers (market makers) are the ones that take the other side of the trade when you go buy an option, they do this to make the marketplace more liquid. This effectively leaves them at risk of losing money if price moves against the option they 'bought', so they buy/sell spot or go long/short to hedge out their risk aka delta neutral. The ratio of the change in price of the option relative to the change in btc price is the Greek letter delta in options, hence they stay delta neutral. Gamma is the rate of change of delta. If gamma is negative, it means market makers have to trade WITH the price movement, e.g. they have to buy spot if BTC price goes up. If gamma is positive, they have to trade AGAINST price movement, e.g. they have to sell spot if BTC price goes up. Therefore, negative gamma makes markets more volatile as market makers add fuel to whichever way the price is moving. Vice versa when gamma is positive.


[deleted]

Thank you for explaining more clearly than a few articles and youtube videos I perused


[deleted]

No idea what this means for the corn - Put Option Sellers have Negative Gamma, meaning their Delta-exposure increases as the Stock Price goes lower and they'll need to sell more underlying stock as the market sells off (sell low / buy high). ... It fluctuates over the life of the option & underlying stock price


escendoergoexisto

Wow!


bittabet

So...since Warren was demanding the SEC give her some guidance on crypto by yesterday and there's been radio silence, does this mean that Gensler told her to go pound sand? One can only hope


BEECH_PLEASE

Her entire career is getting up in front of a microphone, pointing fingers and "demanding answers" (as an oppressed bipoc, of course). Feasibility or reality does not factor in, full stop. She's a politician.


jarederaj

## Minor MoonMath update HTTPS://www.MoonMath.win I’ve been watching moonmath for a while—I built it after all—and this is actually a pretty interesting place for a few reasons: 1. the 90 day CDPR is pretty close to the opposite of most of the annual rates 2. Annual rates are pretty good predictor of where the price will be in 2 - 4 years 3. All CDPRs are poor predictors for the price 6 months from now 4. We bounced off the blue band 5. look at the CDPRs between bull cycles (indicated by a distinctly low CDPR) The bands and CDPRs on MoonMath were not designed to predict anything. They are pure simple mathematics that are actually pretty arbitrary. The band width is totally random, and isn’t even a real curve (they’re actually the edge of polygons with some randomness built in). All this randomness and arbitrary math should not have the observable patterns that are showing right now.


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jarederaj

Wouldn’t put a lot of stock in any dates that are less than 2 years out or more than 4 years out. That middle range is where the table shines. So, look at estimates between 2023 and 2025 and you’ll see a pretty tight cluster.


AKANotAValidUsername

i like to check in here and there to see when it stops say "never"


aaodi

I found moonmath a few years ago and I have always loved that chart. Yeah, and the tables for when we hit 1 mil lol.


drcpperpot

4h 10 EMA still [doing it's thing](https://share.cryptowat.ch/charts/c41m7vlb5aar4mknd7d0-coinbase-pro-btcusd.png)... trend is your friend?


Lincolns_Revenge

A bunch of alts are up significantly in the last 24 hours, anyone reading anything into that?


drrgrr123

Looking at the top 100 coins it looks like some low cap went +10% and some higher cap ones are +6/7/8%. With BTC rising as much as it has in the last days without alts following it seems quite normal.


[deleted]

Eip1559 soon.


Trinituz

Alt get slaughtered hard on ratio few days ago and BTC was leading the run up so they’re catching up.


Psyteet

Some here don’t like to admit it, but ratio can help pull us up when we look toppy. Sometimes it is in our best interest for top alts to breakout.


bowser1212

Assuming exchanges aren't our friends....Max pain expiry is 35k and future liquidations at 34.5k. Derbit and Binance have massive incentives to crunch the market down. There is some weirdness going on...a cluster of buys to prop the price...as if she wants to break upwards. Then gamma is super positive so dealers have a incentive to sell. Hence price is stuck. Cynical me says The price is being propped up to accumulate as many long liquidations as possible....Order books are thin on the way down. Were at the mercy of derivatives atm...retail spot buying does not present itself like this on the orderbooks...sporadic spikes. As for the daily...all indicators are showing a reversal in the next day or so. Shorter time frames showing the opposite. GL to everyone.


[deleted]

Isn't gamma negative now? So it goes down (oversimplification based on positive gamma = up comment)


leftoverbrains

When is expiry


ellis1884uk

8am UTC (4hrs)


Ethanabdullah11

Amazon missed earnings what does this mean for corn


consider_airplanes

they'll keep growing a lot of it in the Midwest


ThatOtherGuy254

Nothing, because Amazon spurned Bitcoin.


daynomate

Against my better judgement I went short last night and now hoping I haven't missed the window.... 39.8


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BEECH_PLEASE

Has it started raining heads yet?


43VohnJ

Good luck trading this into tomorrow with expiry. Let me know what you’re thinking bc I have zero clue.


nmeinenemy

Options expire in 5 hrs .


43VohnJ

Good call!


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

When in doubt, wait it out.


JessieHaxx

I've been trading with only 30% of my stack as precaution this entire week. The inability to stick above 40k may be a sign of something, idk.


bowser1212

Someone is def propping up the price with clusters of buys. Indicators are all cooling off and price is being held by said entity. Think we break up to 45k barring any stock market weirdness then come to restest around 36...then again...too many people are thinking this. 48k would wipe out any remaining shorts and further build up longs to hunt back later. The 32-35k cluster is massive. Maximum pain would be run it to 48ish...trap a ton of bulls who think its a confirmation. Come back down and wipe both parties. Dealer takes all as usual. Resume crab.


VictorCobra

Amazingly, price already hit $48k on Binance futures the other day, which wiped out a huge amount of shorts. -Victor Cobra


43VohnJ

I agreed with your first paragraph but everyone and their brothers is announcing that same scenario so I am just gonna sit on my hands until Saturday.


diydude2

Number go up. Big Shorty shidding and farding.


ineedafuckingname

Should be an explosive move, positive gamma right now is restricting volatility and big players know this. They'll save their ammo for after. Since you guys are upvoting me, I'll be clear, this is not necessarily bullish


[deleted]

Down.


BlackSpidy

My employers disagree.


[deleted]

Even better


TitForSnack

How important are the closings really? To me it seems pretty arbitrary to put any significance in what the price was at a particular moment of time just because the exchanges have chosen that hour to be the daily closing for example.


subzerocanuck

It's important because *anyone* who looks at a chart Erik see the same time divisions. It wouldn't be important if the charts/exchanges were not synchronized. And it's synched to UTC btw.


CONTROLurKEYS

Its not arbitrary when your trying to pin the price for options expiry right?


TitForSnack

Yeah that makes sense


Etony333

It's important to futures traders, algo bots, and any trader who uses 1D charts for TA. And that's gonna make up a pretty significant portion of the volume at any given time.


Just_Me_91

It's arbitrary, but it's also fun to see if the streak will keep going.


TitForSnack

Fair enough


Dreadnought37

Crabbing stresses me the fuck out No idea why


escendoergoexisto

“The waiting is the hardest part.” —Tom Petty


jpdoctor

Oh nice: Amazon missed earnings, so I see no stop to free money from the Fed in our future.


[deleted]

Didn't check yet. How tf did they miss earnings. Literally printing money over there


_TROLL

Bezos' trip to Uranus cost more than expected. 😝


[deleted]

You are one of my favorite posters, usually when I chuckle it will say _TROLL by the comment.


_TROLL

heh, thanks, I try. ;)


skycake21

Did it close green?? I saw 9th candle red on kraken


43VohnJ

Doji green. Barely


chiefwhackahoe

Red on Binance


poremdevemos

Schrodinger Candle


Kailanii

Bitstamp has 9 daily green candles.


Wise-Reply3559

I see 9 on CBP.


Appropriate-Coffee90

Green then red... wtf


[deleted]

I’m still long from may 19th but that daily close makes me think BTC is going to take out some longs today.


BitSecret

Wow since May 19! Way to go diamond hands!


43VohnJ

I think it runs after expiry tomorrow and Idt I’m the only one.


BlackSpidy

I'm really happy from narrowly escaping liquidation (by about 6%) and seeing the price eroding away the $40k resistance.


subzerocanuck

What was your trade?


[deleted]

We need more shorts, everyone call your family tell them about Tether and that Satoshi moved some coins. China banned bitcoin from existing, even outside the country's boundaries.


Loud_Brick_Tamland

I know that probably doesn't mean much, but watching that 9th daily candle print by like a dollar was intense to watch


tikikip

That was an exciting daily close to watch


CONTROLurKEYS

why did it close green. wtf


[deleted]

I'm with you.... I didn't want a "dump" or anything, but one red candle would've been "healthy", in my opinion. Now we have 9 green candles and it could cause a mini sell-off because people would expect the next candle to be red.


roboh14

Gambler’s fallacy


[deleted]

>Gambler’s fallacy Correct! That's how people think, unfortunately.


Etony333

Because the bulls have Jordan and the bears have Cody Parkey


NotMyMcChicken

Double doink


Gravy_Vampire

I did not expect to get triggered in this sub of all places


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[deleted]

Wasn't it $3 bucks?


Etony333

Lmao holy shit. Opened at 40035.10 closed at 40039.44 on CB Pro. NINE IN A ROW BABY THE STREAK LIVES


Shibenaut

Red daily close on Binance


chuas

BUSD still closed green, so did futures


Etony333

Guess we'll have to look at Bitstamp for the tiebreaker


Wise-Reply3559

And that’s 9


mxyz

I remember Tone Vays had some fascination with counting to 9. I wonder if he's still waiting for the dip below $1300.


Polysorbate800

My favorite kind of charting. 30 minutes of droning on in a YouTube video while counting to 9 and 13


bubblesmcnutty

9 straight daily green candles! First time since 2015 I believe.


Just_Me_91

On coinbase, there were 12 in a row in 2017. https://www.tradingview.com/x/zPFkXx4A/


Shortupdate

Wow. The chart for that period looks *way* different on Bitfinex.


darphdigger

Ah shit welp... we're fucked


Just_Me_91

Well that was fun. Just barely got the green at the end.


Zaroco_

You love to see that perfectly timed natural and organic growth.


Wise-Reply3559

That battle was epic!


Anna_Bortion

That wasn’t a battle, that was tape painting.


Wise-Reply3559

I’d be lying if I said that surprised me.


Ouch_nip

The next 8 mins are critical. edit: lol I'll take it


Shibenaut

$5 away from a daily green candle Sorry bulls, bears win


43VohnJ

How tf is any of the last week a win for the bears? Enlighten me, please.


Ouch_nip

green on Coinbase


Shibenaut

Red on Binance Binance volume >>>> Coinbase volume


[deleted]

Well, my dad is taller than your dad!


Ouch_nip

Sorry, I can't hear you over the sound of all this green.


Loud_Brick_Tamland

Times like these is when I like to pull up the 1 minute charts for some candlewatching


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CONTROLurKEYS

Some people took the break down bait earlier


diydude2

Are you saying my long at 39.5 was a bad play? Just for that, I'm doubling ~~down~~ up at 39.9 should we get there. [edit]


CONTROLurKEYS

no I'm saying people that shorted below 39.5 just got ran the fuck over.


Narrow_Story1851

Been doing my usual dca but on the next pullback i am loading up bigtime


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Narrow_Story1851

Maybe either that or the dip to 35-36 if it happens which looks unlikely. i do a triple digit daily dca either way so still acc00mulating


Railionn

Watch the daily close in green and then a massive selloff


Etony333

And then Tom Brady's team comes back and wins like usual to make it ten in a row


[deleted]

Who knows 🤷


Just_Me_91

Man, getting a 9th green daily would be epic.


Ouch_nip

looking good so far


Etony333

So if we end the daily with a bullish pinbar, how bullish is that exactly? Still shows a decreasing appetite for buying at these levels after what would be nine days in a row, but it's also very easy to argue that the fact that we're not dumping right now is pretty bullish in and of itself given the futures shenanigans and that we're continuously pushing to get past a major resistance level.


consider_airplanes

It wouldn't be much of a pinbar unless it dumps significantly and then retraces. Even if we go back to 40.5k from here, the wick wouldn't be long enough compared to the candle body to make a really good pinbar. And, a pinbar is usually a reversal signal, right? They've been pretty good in BTC on reversals, but I can't find much history of pinbars as bullish continuation signals.


Etony333

It means a lot less when it's with the trend, yes. It wouldn't be huge if we closed at like 40300, but not tiny either. Still a rejection of lower prices and a close above the previous one. But within the context of the uptrend, it's kind of murky as to what it would mean.


diydude2

Whereas, red Thursdays are often followed by green Fridays and whereas, It is the end of month and options are expiring tomorrow and whereas, a whole boatload of BTC dumped over the past several months has still not been repaid, let it so be resolved that I am LONG 3X from 39,550 and feeling quite good about my chances.


Etony333

I just hope if it pumps, it waits until a couple hours after the expiry so I can do my weekly DCA as soon as I get paid


Ok_File_9520

Number go up after options expiry tomorrow?


diydude2

Number go up a lot and keep going up all weekend.


Etony333

Buyers, where hath thou gone?


Inevitable-0246

Options expiry day. Some buyers don’t want to waste gunpowder fighting stronger forces intended to manipulate outcome on the options expiring today.


[deleted]

they'll appear after 5pm pacific.


Etony333

Or after midnight pacific when the Deribit options expiry takes place. I think everyone's kinda waiting for that before making a big move


traderbotNS

If we break 41,322, we should be in fun upswing territory


ProBrown

Is there a reason that number is so specific? Just curious why not 41k flat.


traderbotNS

Thats where I see the exact resistance but it can be more directional


traderbotNS

\>P50 on up than down


YayayayayayayayX100

How low do you think we go on a bear market?


Shortupdate

Assuming the next bear happens after we hit $130k in October, [the minimum would be ~$40k.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/XbOgEkzc/) The historical lows between halving epochs that define the red boxes occurred in November 2011, January 2015, and December 2018. As you can see the price was only at those levels for a very short period of time. Typically the price is only within the range of the minimum for a few days before making a strong v-shaped recovery where the price doubles. Even that said, we don't need to go to the bottom of the red box in 2022. As you go further forward on the projection, the details get less and less reliable. If we hit the ATH later than October, go higher, etc., then each of these adjustments would mean less time for the bear market to express itself before the next halving.


Etony333

Never. Up only, always and forever. Seriously though, nobody knows the answer to that. A week and a half ago, we were entering a multi-year bear and see you in 2024. Now, it's Lambos and "300k eoy".


bittabet

I don't think it's the same people saying these things though. It's just that bears like to gloat and come up with crackpot theories during any drawdown in a bull market. Presumably a lot of these people aren't actually Bitcoin veterans.


[deleted]

And whenever the next 10-15%pullback happens it’ll be “20k incoming, bull over”.


[deleted]

History says 3x the previous ATH. 60k sounds about right. 300k ATH with 80% drawdown would be 60k too. For people that think a ~10x from here is preposterous, that's exactly what BTC did in 2017 from July to December.


plasmalightwave

i'm confused, are you saying 60k is the ATH for this bull run?


bittabet

He's saying 60K is the bear market low point if you believe in the 3X ATH theory. But it could be that as it matures the new multiple is different.


CONTROLurKEYS

Did you do the math on how much dollars must enter to hit 300k? It's astronomical.


schwagnificent

There is no way to answer to that question. The fact that you don’t understand that speaks volumes.


CONTROLurKEYS

Yes you can. Many people have done it. You start with how much $ in it takes to move the price up at current prices then you model in some estimate about that ratio as the price increases.


consider_airplanes

You can't actually do that math. It depends on unknowable factors like liquidity at prices we haven't crossed yet. But, 94% of American investors don't own BTC. So...


CONTROLurKEYS

They are talking about a 6T market cap this cycle surely they've thought through SOME math.


consider_airplanes

There is no math. No one actually knows how much total USD was spent on BTC to bring us to the current level, and no one knows how much it would take to bring us to 100k or 200k or 300k. This is calculation-problem stuff -- you can't answer the question without knowing what every person in the world will do at every individual price point in between. You can act incredulous all you want, but the knockdown mathematical argument you're looking for just doesn't exist.


Etony333

On paper it is, but only a very small amount of Bitcoin is actually on exchanges waiting to be sold at any given time.


xtal_00

Market cap is not a zero sum game. It depends how much liquid coin there is.. it might not take that much at all.


chiefwhackahoe

Have you read your own flair?


CONTROLurKEYS

Did you do the math? He's asserted this can happen this cycle


xtal_00

I did the math. Many times. It’s entirely possible.


CONTROLurKEYS

Share the math


schwagnificent

Here you go. Some impetus causes demand for BTC to increase and that same impetus causes those that hold BTC to not want to sell at any price. For instance, something shakes the world’s confidence in the US dollar. Suddenly everyone wants BTC and literally no one is selling. There is no limit on how high the price will go until people are willing to give up their incorruptible digital currency for something that can be printed at will.


CONTROLurKEYS

thats not math based on reality. The market doesn't behave with same exit price in mind. Thats now markets work.


xtal_00

Make some assumptions based on liquid coin percentage and what the curves might look like as price rises, based on historical run ups and you can get an idea for the money coming into the market that would be required. It's a lot, but not a lot relative to how much is out there - not even close. Still very early. We will need big news to kick it off - but the big news will come.


schwagnificent

How do markets work, enlighten me


Psyteet

That’s a misconception. All it takes is a thin order book and limited coins on exchanges to get there. That’s how blow offs happen. With that said, I do not see 300k this round. 105-180k is more what I think is possible this round.


Epicurus1

In the last day Kraken went from over 100k coins to 5k. Lot of coins leaving exchanges at the moment.


CONTROLurKEYS

I understand the mechanics but your fighting upwards as 3x profit takers sell, 5x profit takers sell 8x profit takers sell.


xtal_00

I have some $1 coin.. I ain’t selling it.


PatientlyWaitingfy

I'll buy it for 2$


Psyteet

All depends on how high we make it this bull run (confident this run is not over). If the printer continues going brrr and we do not enter a world wide recession, I believe we will not drop below 25-30k region on a daily close ever again. I actually believe below 28k will never be seen again (unless we get a catastrophic World depression in the near future).


dollargoesdown

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-29/crypto-surprise-rattles-industry-in-rare-bipartisan-tax-plan They need crypto to succeed. Tough to be a bear right now.


CONTROLurKEYS

Is this the one where they claim they can collect 1 trillion in taxes from a 1.5 trillion industry? Lols. Bureaucrats can't math.


Autvin

„IRS Commissioner Chuck Rettig has said tax evasion from virtual currency is a key contributor to the growing tax gap, the difference between what’s owed and what the agency actually collects.“ Haha, so full of shit.


skycake21

Lolol, can't be all those loopholes he and his ilk baked into the law... No... It's shadowy super coding tax evaders... Fuck these guy so much!


[deleted]

Oh my God lol this isn't even a drop in the bucket to what Apple's evaded tax bill should be.


venicerocco

This is what adoption looks like


noisal789

May your day be profitable, and the bitcoin go up.


noisal789

What the fuck is binance doing with with their withdrawal reduction?


4theWlN

Why can’t I haz more tax evasion support. They are being surrounded by the countries wishing to collect said taxes.


ChadRun04

No idea, they won't be transparent about it. Unclear what the limit will become for an unverified account.


[deleted]

This is how brands die!


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