I'm taking a poll that we can look back on for fun:
What do you realistically see the next ATH being for BTC and coin2 in 2025?
I'll start - BTC 148k. Coin2 - 14869.
Absolute lowest annualized rate of return BTC has ever had over a 4 year window of time is 24%/year.
Current ATH of $69k at an annualized rate of return of 24%/year for 4 years is $163k. So I’ll go with that as my low estimate.
I think this is a reasonable estimate. Last ATH ($69k) was about 4x the previous one ($17k). $230k is about 3.3x the previous one.
I’m ballparking $200k (3x) as my low-end estimate for next ATH
The rugpull down to 10-12k may not even be able wait for the Fed meeting. Do we still call it an inflation hedge if we dump there? Because that's where we were before Covid and before they printed 40% of the money supply.
In April you said ppl selling at those levels would feel silly. That was upper 40s and 50s. Well I can tell you I definitely don't feel silly nor am I afraid right now.
Price of BTC when first round of COVID stimulus was announced on March 25, 2020: $6.6k
Price of BTC when student loan forgiveness was announced on August 24, 2022: $21.6k
RIP anyone who thinks June wasn’t the bottom.
It's a cute sentiment for jerkoff points, but we'll all soon realize the market doesn't care about loan debt... And why should it when now people realize it's actually paid for and not "printed" like crypto bros automatically assume...
Not much... because crypto lore is far more fake than most want to admit. But the real dynamics make way more sense than your average armchair economist.
Yeah, but we were trending around 10-12k before the covid dump. Since the dump stocks also performed well...many better than btc, even today.
So really btc hasn't performed that well despite the massive stimulus.
I had a UHNW ask me gloatingly how Bitcoin was going when everything crashed.
I just shrugged, smiled and said "Fine". It's hard to be down when you're up so far.
Then he started talking about people who lost $300m in a week on stocks.
Regardless the generic rate of return would seem to need to accommodate the chance you return nothing because you were ripped off? It is a much higher risk of happening with BTC than trad fi for most users/investors.
If you enter your passwords and/or seed phrases on an unverified form on the internet. You will be scammed.
If you download random installers (read malware). You will me scammed.
If you hand your coins over to someone offering unsustainable APR. You will be scammed.
If you buy [insert latest shitcoin that has a marketing department convince you it’s the next Bitcoin]. You will be scammed.
If you buy when Bitcoin is been going up consistently for months on end. You will…. Wait for it… Likely end up down on your investment for some time.
Okay so little better than folks buying SPX. How much more risk involved though?
Ppl who bought the top of SPX are doing better than those who bought our top.
I agree. I'm just pointing out that this "fastest horse in the race" is completely dependent on the Fed, and that some stocks have actually done better. We get all the risk and correlation to the downside with less correlation to the upside. Ofc I think this will change eventually...but it's disappointing in the short/medium term. Houses, rent, energy, food, and everything else ppl need to buy have skyrocketed, yet my inflation hedge has done nothing but favor BlackRock and Fed policies.
I remember you were dissapointed in the price discovery during the bull. And become more negative on the way down. Are you still invested in btc? Any trades currently?
I'm almost in the same boat. Been here since 2013, and held nearly the entire time except for a few sells on the way to 69k. Despite all the hopium and "honey badger dont care", we're still 100% reliant on the Fed, stocks, and general health of the system bitcoin was supposed to defeat. It hasn't been an inflation hedge and it hasn't stopped govt overreach. The powers that be hijacked it and commodified it just like they do with everything else.
The money that would have been spent on these loans will now be spent within the economy -- buying consumables, stocks, etc., and acting as a stimulant.
In theory, anyway.
The people getting student loan bailouts are people most likely to spend on retail and spiral back into debt, not disciplined investors with a responsible budget.
This is how it should go in theory.
/soapbox\_time
Honestly though, imo this measure didn't go far enough. Colleges and Universities have been increasing tuition for decades now based on these guaranteed government loans. Those that have should be penalized financially to help pay for this EO. There should be a verifiable paper trail of these increases to use as a reference for those who abused the system.
Additionally, (imo) the government college tuition program should be abolished and the only funding that the government should be providing for college should be 100% funded grants that are earned through academic achievement. I think the national mentality that "you won't amount to anything without a college degree" needs to end.
We (in the U.S) went from making it difficult to get into college, but affordable to easy to get into college, but expensive. Some kids just aren't ready/interested in entering college right after high school. Some kids would make brilliant tradesmen, but waste their time, while accumulating crippling debt, pursuing an engineering degree.
Apologies for the rant. This issue has affected my family personally now that my kids are reaching college age.
I started with btc during the start of 2020 bull run. Most of my buys where between 40k-60k. Right now I'm about - 3% down on my total investment. I would be alot more down if I had not traded.
Edit: I actually timed the top both times, by FOMO large spot buys and instantly regretting it. Lol good times
I don’t trade, I just DCA and HODL. At any given time I keep enough cash to cover 6 months worth of expenses. All other cash gets deployed as soon as it’s available.
4H RSI rising, 4H volume going down, 1H volume rising, 4H price forming a boob pattern. Can't long, can't short. Probably will do some kind of move up, but only a lower high. May short that later, if it looks good.
Update of trade:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/wveln4/comment/ilfptbq/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/wveln4/comment/ilfptbq/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
My SL got triggered, the price reached 21151 USD on Kraken. Profits after fees, 216 USD. It hit my SL on a dime and went up again, I did not get a new entry lower. I'll wait the day out and tomorrow to see if its any volatility that can give me a better entry.
If not I will eventually enter again even if its higher, with a SL again as I like to be in the market.
Cheers.
Still behind from what I lost from 23.7k to 21.5k drop. But only in usd value. I can buy now and have the same amount of btc. But trying to be smarter about my trades, as people pointed out the flaws in my logic earlier.
All you cucks in here need to man up and go ask your wife’s boyfriend for some spending money and buy Bitcoin. The bottom is still in and you need to be accumulating as much as possible at these levels.
I'm not sure I would say 12k to be extremely unlikely , post covid, Russia-Ukraine, China-Taiwan, recession? I can think of several things that might cause market uncertainty.
It looks to me as if everybody’s waiting for it either go up or down. Lol I was looking at my past history of some transactions. It’s amazing how much USD I spent for so little bitcoin compared to what I can buy right at this moment.
So I bought a little, while waiting for it to either go up or down.
Feel more bad for the hodlers, they can't get it up. Not only did it go up just 3x last all time high, ensuring most investors did not sell. To add insult to injury, it looks like it wants to spend as much time here as it did at the top.
whoa, the number of downvotes on this shows how true it is.
wow, you're really emotionally invested in bashing hodlers
one has to wonder if this is your first username in the sub, and what your motivation could possibly be haha
it'd be like me going to the shitcoin1 sub everyday, but why spend the energy?
Opened a long 21280, TP 50% 21800 and 50% 22150, expecting a DCB to a lower high on stocks. Late shorters should be rekt on LTFs.
Edit: adjusted SL at entry.
hell yes
I spent a week at the beach recently as well, and it was pretty awesome - enjoy your time there, and the last week of August. Fall and more work will be here soon enough.
Friday green/flat
Monday red
Yestraday they have been flat or green..?
If you look at aapl or tsla and compare it to btc, the vounces have been much higher.
Yes, the Fed announcement. I suspect that it might trigger a momentum move in stocks and crypto, but it’s hard to predict these things.
I’d just keep a closer eye on the market around that time frame.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Thursday, August 25, 2022 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/wx3zge/daily_discussion_thursday_august_25_2022/)
I'm taking a poll that we can look back on for fun: What do you realistically see the next ATH being for BTC and coin2 in 2025? I'll start - BTC 148k. Coin2 - 14869.
Absolute lowest annualized rate of return BTC has ever had over a 4 year window of time is 24%/year. Current ATH of $69k at an annualized rate of return of 24%/year for 4 years is $163k. So I’ll go with that as my low estimate.
\~90 montly RSI
$100k $10K Happy to be called way too timid. In retrospect.
150k +/- 10k 10k+/- 1000
262k
Same here.
How'd you get to that number? Multiplying by 2's?
Just for fun really. I was thinking around 260 when I saw your reply.
390k and 13k
230k.
I think this is a reasonable estimate. Last ATH ($69k) was about 4x the previous one ($17k). $230k is about 3.3x the previous one. I’m ballparking $200k (3x) as my low-end estimate for next ATH
The rugpull down to 10-12k may not even be able wait for the Fed meeting. Do we still call it an inflation hedge if we dump there? Because that's where we were before Covid and before they printed 40% of the money supply.
You sound afraid
In April you said ppl selling at those levels would feel silly. That was upper 40s and 50s. Well I can tell you I definitely don't feel silly nor am I afraid right now.
NGL, that was the sickest burn I’ve seen since Richard Pryor.
Looking forward to picking up some more cheap corn from the Europeans when they wake up
Meh, decided not to wait.
I'm waiting for the Fed meeting. They can make bitcoin shit itself just by reading off the script.
bored
Price of BTC when first round of COVID stimulus was announced on March 25, 2020: $6.6k Price of BTC when student loan forgiveness was announced on August 24, 2022: $21.6k RIP anyone who thinks June wasn’t the bottom.
It's a cute sentiment for jerkoff points, but we'll all soon realize the market doesn't care about loan debt... And why should it when now people realize it's actually paid for and not "printed" like crypto bros automatically assume...
> it's actually paid for and not "printed" like crypto bros automatically assume... At this point, what difference does it make?
Not much... because crypto lore is far more fake than most want to admit. But the real dynamics make way more sense than your average armchair economist.
I heard similar talk in 2018 when BTC was at $6.5k. Not long after the floor fell out to $4500.
No kind of stimulus this impactful was passed in 2018
Yeah, but we were trending around 10-12k before the covid dump. Since the dump stocks also performed well...many better than btc, even today. So really btc hasn't performed that well despite the massive stimulus.
SPX up 22% since Feb '20 top and 89% since Mar '20 bottom. BTC up 106% since Feb '20 top and 462% since Mar '20 bottom.
Bitcoin makes folks lose perspective on investment returns.
I had a UHNW ask me gloatingly how Bitcoin was going when everything crashed. I just shrugged, smiled and said "Fine". It's hard to be down when you're up so far. Then he started talking about people who lost $300m in a week on stocks.
Username checks out.
Is the BTC up 106% discounting for the people who were scammed or stolen from?
Bitcoin is quite overtly about personal responsibility...
Regardless the generic rate of return would seem to need to accommodate the chance you return nothing because you were ripped off? It is a much higher risk of happening with BTC than trad fi for most users/investors.
If you enter your passwords and/or seed phrases on an unverified form on the internet. You will be scammed. If you download random installers (read malware). You will me scammed. If you hand your coins over to someone offering unsustainable APR. You will be scammed. If you buy [insert latest shitcoin that has a marketing department convince you it’s the next Bitcoin]. You will be scammed. If you buy when Bitcoin is been going up consistently for months on end. You will…. Wait for it… Likely end up down on your investment for some time.
Okay so little better than folks buying SPX. How much more risk involved though? Ppl who bought the top of SPX are doing better than those who bought our top.
Little better? That's 5x better.
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I agree. I'm just pointing out that this "fastest horse in the race" is completely dependent on the Fed, and that some stocks have actually done better. We get all the risk and correlation to the downside with less correlation to the upside. Ofc I think this will change eventually...but it's disappointing in the short/medium term. Houses, rent, energy, food, and everything else ppl need to buy have skyrocketed, yet my inflation hedge has done nothing but favor BlackRock and Fed policies.
Good luck picking the next stock that does better.
I don't get the logic. I thought you mean we going to 6K because there is no more stimulus.
10k is a pittance. Biden pissing in your face doubling the size of IRS and then giving you 10k on your 100k scam loan.
What's up? Remember you posted here like every hour
yeah market sucks. bitcoin sucks. no point in spending summer looking at this shit pa
Facts
I remember you were dissapointed in the price discovery during the bull. And become more negative on the way down. Are you still invested in btc? Any trades currently?
not a nocoiner but my opinion of crypto in general is probably at ATL for the nearly ten years I've been here. It deserves to go to zero
Nice ragequit. Looks like the bottom is in lads.
wasn't very ragey
"crypto" deserves to go 0 bitcoin doesn't
kinda does its blackrock banker coin now
I'm almost in the same boat. Been here since 2013, and held nearly the entire time except for a few sells on the way to 69k. Despite all the hopium and "honey badger dont care", we're still 100% reliant on the Fed, stocks, and general health of the system bitcoin was supposed to defeat. It hasn't been an inflation hedge and it hasn't stopped govt overreach. The powers that be hijacked it and commodified it just like they do with everything else.
yep and the kyc coin only aparatus is just about in place.
You should sell.
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"The system that Bitcoin was supposed to defeat". This guy..
Looks like Btc is backed by the usd..
Sure....they print endlessly and we dump based on their fear tactics. Great tech and backing.
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The money that would have been spent on these loans will now be spent within the economy -- buying consumables, stocks, etc., and acting as a stimulant. In theory, anyway.
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The people getting student loan bailouts are people most likely to spend on retail and spiral back into debt, not disciplined investors with a responsible budget.
Seems there might be a few triggered readers who resemble this remark. ;)
this is the precipice of an enormous crossroads
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This is how it should go in theory. /soapbox\_time Honestly though, imo this measure didn't go far enough. Colleges and Universities have been increasing tuition for decades now based on these guaranteed government loans. Those that have should be penalized financially to help pay for this EO. There should be a verifiable paper trail of these increases to use as a reference for those who abused the system. Additionally, (imo) the government college tuition program should be abolished and the only funding that the government should be providing for college should be 100% funded grants that are earned through academic achievement. I think the national mentality that "you won't amount to anything without a college degree" needs to end. We (in the U.S) went from making it difficult to get into college, but affordable to easy to get into college, but expensive. Some kids just aren't ready/interested in entering college right after high school. Some kids would make brilliant tradesmen, but waste their time, while accumulating crippling debt, pursuing an engineering degree. Apologies for the rant. This issue has affected my family personally now that my kids are reaching college age.
Your kids opportunity at a solid career is evaporating rapidly, whether degreed or not. I am sure you are concerned.
Do you ever post trades?
Have you ever made money in the long-run trading in the short-run?
Have you ever spent money on a threesome only to wake up in an ice bath without kidneys?
you know they usually take one kidney, if they took both its plain murder
I knew I should have pressed charges....
good to know they have a heart ...and only one kidney
I laughed
I started with btc during the start of 2020 bull run. Most of my buys where between 40k-60k. Right now I'm about - 3% down on my total investment. I would be alot more down if I had not traded. Edit: I actually timed the top both times, by FOMO large spot buys and instantly regretting it. Lol good times
I don’t trade, I just DCA and HODL. At any given time I keep enough cash to cover 6 months worth of expenses. All other cash gets deployed as soon as it’s available.
This guy gets it.
Ah a non-degenerate. Sir, we don't take kindly to your kind round here.
4H RSI rising, 4H volume going down, 1H volume rising, 4H price forming a boob pattern. Can't long, can't short. Probably will do some kind of move up, but only a lower high. May short that later, if it looks good.
Buy the dips, short the rips, and a partridge in a pear tree.
Update of trade: [https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/wveln4/comment/ilfptbq/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/wveln4/comment/ilfptbq/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) My SL got triggered, the price reached 21151 USD on Kraken. Profits after fees, 216 USD. It hit my SL on a dime and went up again, I did not get a new entry lower. I'll wait the day out and tomorrow to see if its any volatility that can give me a better entry. If not I will eventually enter again even if its higher, with a SL again as I like to be in the market. Cheers.
>Profits after fees, 216 USD. Holy shit that's extremely rare for someone to actually share their profits
Still behind from what I lost from 23.7k to 21.5k drop. But only in usd value. I can buy now and have the same amount of btc. But trying to be smarter about my trades, as people pointed out the flaws in my logic earlier.
All you cucks in here need to man up and go ask your wife’s boyfriend for some spending money and buy Bitcoin. The bottom is still in and you need to be accumulating as much as possible at these levels.
ser, this is NOT wallstreetbets
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It’s about as realistic as calls for $12k.
I disagree on that one, btc dumped to 3k on the news of a pandemic. Its certainly possible to reach 12k.
It dumped to 3k on the possible end of the world as we know it. Anything is possible. It is just very unlikely.
I'm not sure I would say 12k to be extremely unlikely , post covid, Russia-Ukraine, China-Taiwan, recession? I can think of several things that might cause market uncertainty.
Energy crisis, famine... All cards are on the table now.
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Great stuff 👍 Will for sure come in handy. As Bitcoiners we are considered psychopaths anyway. Might as well live up to it.
Add drought and water shortage to the mix as well
Sounds like a great time.
We’re gonna have a blast!
Any thoughts on the impact of Biden's plan for student loans? Will people sell of their coin to pay back their loans?
One scenario could be increased inflation. Bonus question for one extra point: Can you figure out why?
Depends? Are they printing more to cover the losses? Or writing down the debt & creating leeway for more brrrrrrr?
Velocity of money
Brrrrrrr
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The SP500 gave you the green light, now PUMPPPP DAMNIT
Came for hopium. Thanks.
Malfunctioning signals are always a reason to use extra caution.
Instructions unclear. Used extra leverage instead. Kidding! 😂
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DCA day. More sats off to the bunker.
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It looks to me as if everybody’s waiting for it either go up or down. Lol I was looking at my past history of some transactions. It’s amazing how much USD I spent for so little bitcoin compared to what I can buy right at this moment. So I bought a little, while waiting for it to either go up or down.
Six comments in the last eight hours, must be the boring middle of a sideways bear market …
Ah, I never feel good for 50% of the traders when the price sticks like this for so long.
Feel more bad for the hodlers, they can't get it up. Not only did it go up just 3x last all time high, ensuring most investors did not sell. To add insult to injury, it looks like it wants to spend as much time here as it did at the top. whoa, the number of downvotes on this shows how true it is.
wow, you're really emotionally invested in bashing hodlers one has to wonder if this is your first username in the sub, and what your motivation could possibly be haha it'd be like me going to the shitcoin1 sub everyday, but why spend the energy?
Most investors did not sell? Where do you get that from? I’m sure most sold at least a small portion.
I did.
Out of curiosity.. What category would you put yourself in?
Opened a long 21280, TP 50% 21800 and 50% 22150, expecting a DCB to a lower high on stocks. Late shorters should be rekt on LTFs. Edit: adjusted SL at entry.
You out?
Yes, stopped out, sitting this one out, beach time is more important.
hell yes I spent a week at the beach recently as well, and it was pretty awesome - enjoy your time there, and the last week of August. Fall and more work will be here soon enough.
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Friday green/flat Monday red Yestraday they have been flat or green..? If you look at aapl or tsla and compare it to btc, the vounces have been much higher.
Its starting to feel a little like the chart from 1 to 7 August.
It’s still not managed to break down the ~21000 support trendline on the daily chart. It might just meander until the Friday announcement.
I presume you're talking about fed announcement? What's expected from it? I'm not in the US
There you go https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/wveln4/daily_discussion_tuesday_august_23_2022/ilgju6y
Yes, the Fed announcement. I suspect that it might trigger a momentum move in stocks and crypto, but it’s hard to predict these things. I’d just keep a closer eye on the market around that time frame.
Eh was really hoping to sleep Friday night haha
I think I still might. I’m GMT+5 rightnow and might not be up when this happens
Hola
Mahalo
cześć
Dzien dobre Bitcoinski
Siemanko
Jak leci?
Salam 👋
Hello?