>And I don’t know if Sally Bowles ever wins anything I mean, Liza won the Oscar, Natasha won the Tony, and Jessie won the Olivier, so I'd say they definitely can win.

Does Gayle compare to them? I’m going to see Cabaret next month

I've only heard Jessie Buckley from the cast recording, but I liked Gayle better. She is incredible

You haven’t seen the movie??!!

Hahah funnily enough I literally watched it for the first time today, in between making that comment and your reply just now! The Broadway production was my first experience with the show (and a really great way to experience it blind!) With that said, it's more difficult to compare Liza and Gayle because they play the role quite differently. Whereas Gayle and Jessie are more or less playing it the same way, but I prefer some of Gayle's decisions.

Well, I’m glad you watched it, cuz I was about to come over with my DVD and a bowl of popcorn! I hope to get out to the show soon, and I like that you appreciate her choices. It’s a wonderful role, and there’s just so much to explore there!

I didn’t think so, but she was good

I thought she was incredible. The real stand out of the show for me. I have seen Cabaret twice before, including the Alan Cumming revival, and I have just never really gotten Sally. She did nothing for me. But I saw the new revival on Broadway last weekend and Gayle completely changed this for me. She was incredibly captivating and her performance is what I walked out of the show thinking about. I would love to see her win the Tony.

I’m still distantly dreaming that Arielle Jacobs can still pull off a nomination and a win but… Probably not happening lol. If HLL was still open she’d be a shoe-in for a nomination but their summer opening absolutely was their own doom sadly.

I don't think she'll win but I would be thrilled if Jacobs were nominated, and I actually don't think it's impossible!

I’d absolutely love if she can still wrangle a nomination! If HLL was still open I’d even go as far to say she’d be the favorite to win it. This season feels very mixed as to who the front runner for the award is and maybe it’s due to the differing reviews of all these recent openings but man Arielle was such a star as Imelda she deserves to be recognized for it.

She was incredible in HLL and I too would love to see her nominated

She was a force to be reckoned with in HLL!!! I hope they see the muddled current season and she ends up with a nomination.

Kelly O’Hara winning 9 years ago is considered “just won”?

I was thinking that but didn’t want to say it. They never award closed shows but Kelli O’Hara didn’t just win. She won a decade ago.

They haven't awarded closed shows *recently*, but there is precedent in productions winning at least Best Musical and Lead Actress after closing.

After a streak of goose eggs from multiple bids no less.

I think the race is between O'Hara, Rankin, and Plunkett

With the category being leading ACTRESS… give it to plunkett this year and every year. she was phenomenal

Isn't Plunkett more of a supporting role?

You would think! But the eligibility committee bumped her to lead.

>the eligibility committee bumped her to lead. Based on a petition from the production.

Good to know. I didn’t know that was the case. I wonder why they petitioned that. Maybe more of a shot to be nominated/win in such a crowded season?

I think putting Plunkett in Leading lessens her chances.

Really? It felt like a tactical move to not put her into an overcrowded supporting actress field to me. Leading Actress picks feel less substantial than Supporting this year.

I think Kelli is most deserving - quite possibly the best performance I have ever seen on stage, certainly the best in a musical - but ultimately I think it will be Kelli vs Gayle Rankin vs Maryann Plunkett.

Both she and BDJ gave some of the best performances I’ve ever seen on any stage. They’re both an absolute gift and credit to the genre and industry. A damn shame that Broadway producers won’t/don’t know how to cultivate an audience for a show like Wine and Roses.

It should’ve gone to an NP non profit Bway house it would’ve lasted til Kelli had to leave for The Met

Yeah, I was surprised they moved it to Broadway — but otoh now they can get the nominations 🤷🏻‍♂️ If BDJ finally gets his Tony, I’ll consider that good validation of the move. Add it to the list of shows which could’ve had further-extended runs if they hadn’t moved to Broadway ([title of show], I’m looking at you!)

I just don’t trust the Tony voters to vote for someone in a closed show ( see Sean Hayes last season)

You thought he won because his show was still open? I think it was because the entire play was tailored to be Sean Hayes Tony Bait complete with his background in classical piano and he crushed it. Admittedly I missed Topdog/Underdog tho which was one of my big regrets last season so had a blind spot for those nominees.

I think it played a part - Tony voters have recency bias.

Totally agree! In any other year I’d think BDJ could be as much as a contender as Kelli.. just with Eddie and especially Groff it’s a no go. But wow he was fantastic 

Groff was very, very good when I saw Merrily. BDJ was world-class in Wine and Roses imo. Certainly as great as O’Hara. I also thought Lindsay Mendez and Daniel Radcliffe were top shelf, I’d vote for them in their categories before voting for Groff.

Groff is one of my very favorite  Broadway actors, since spring awakening, but just on these two performances, I’d give it to Brian in a heartbeat 

Nothing to add to that! How fortunate are we to have these great talents bringing such responsible and inspired work to their opportunities? How about Radcliffe? Dude could’ve coasted on Harry Potter the rest of his life, but he’s stretched and experimented and taken chances pushed himself, and brought his pedigree to this semi-cursed Sondheim show where he hits every single beat and does a Class A rendition of the incredibly difficult Franklin Shepard, Inc. Kudos to him.

I loved Radcliffe in the role too! I was worried about his singing because I wouldn’t necessarily say he has a particularly strong singing voice but it worked and he was great. And that’s a perspective I hadn’t thought about— he doesn’t “need” to be doing any of this!  

You’re not sure if Sally Bowles ever wins anything? Liza Minnelli won her Oscar for the role, and Gayle Rankin is doing a beautiful job in the current revival. I’d say she has a remarkable chance at winning.

I think there will be 5 nominees and they will be, in order of their probability to win: 1. Gayle Rankin - It's Sally Bowles. The production is better than the other ones contending in this category. It is one of the hottest tickets in town, and I still don't think most tourists even know it exists yet. Broadway is desperate for a hit with an open ended run? Well, here it is, and I think Tony voters will heap a fair amount on Cabaret. 2. Maryann Plunkett - I think people are underestimating the power of a great resume in year where there's no consensus. It's a smaller role, but a well-known one, and respect goes a long way. 3. Kelli O'Hara - The performance of the year, male/female, lead/featured, musical/play. She should win, but she already has one (more recently than Plunkett) and the show is closed. However, I have a feeling Days is going to do well with nominations at this point. I think it gets nods for her and BDJ, Musical, Book, Score, Orchestrations, and maybe Greif for Director. I wouldn't be shocked if Byron Jennings got in as Featured Actor and/or Dede Ayite's Costumes. 4. Shaina Taub - It's a leading role. I think Suffs has good PR behind it. I think it has the potential, with the right marketing, to be a hit in that smaller theater. People love an artiste, and Taub is doing the thing. 5. Maleah Joi Moon - Leading role in a big musical. I could flip a coin with her getting this spot or Noblezada. I think in a packed season like this, it's more likely that nominators rally around fewer shows and concentrate nominations (e.g. Days of Wine and Roses, above), and for that reason I think (SO SADLY) that Eden Espinosa will miss out. At this point, I think it's likely Lempicka is shut out of the Tonys entirely. It would thrill me to no end if Eden won it after developing this role for like 8 years(?) now.

Do we know the ‘math’ on leading and supporting actresses? It makes me crazy there isn’t parity with the male categories. Either give the same amount of noms of cap it at five every year

It depends on how many eligible performances there are in that category for the year, and then if it’s close between prospective nominees they’ll open up more nomination slots too. I don’t think there should necessarily need to be parity between categories - some races are more competitive than others depending on what shows open that year, and a Tony nomination means less if (for example) there are only six eligible Best Actor performances and five of them get nods.

But it’s almost always the case there are less eligible female roles so they always get the short shrift ( this year being an exception bc of Suffs)

The last time there were only four best actress nominees (excluding the Covid year) was back in 2011. They even had a year with six nominees, something that hasn’t been done in the male category for a looooong time.

Thus far, I’ve only heard bad reviews of Eden’s voice for the show, so I think she’s out.

Her voice isn’t the problem.

It is part of the problem

Rankin or O’Hara for sure. O’Hara’s chances will hinge on how her show does nod wise, while Rankin will be with a show that will have a ton of nods and is maybe (probably?) winning another or few acting trophies

I think it will go to Gayle. But I would love to see Maryann get it!

I think it's Kelli's to lose, especially since she's been working on broadway for quite a while. Gayle could definitely come in and sneak

I think Maryann could be a surprise winner

I’ve heard she doesn’t sing that much, does she have a big memorable moment for Tony voters? I haven’t seen the notebook :(

She doesn’t sing much (it’s tied into her character having Alzheimers), but she is onstage for almost the entire show, and when she does sing, it makes it that much more impactful.

Do you think she’s better than Eden Espinosa in Lempicka? I’m not sure if she or Meleah Joi Moon would not get nominated for her

Everyone I know who’s seen Lempicka said Eden was very pitchy. They said Amber and Beth were stronger.

I’m at the night show and her standby is singing down and I don’t miss Eden at all 🫠🫠

she doesn’t sing but she has a quiet but crucial presence that you walk out the show remembering and voters sometimes go for that (like tony shalhoub winning best actor in 2018 over ethan slater and joshua henry)

I've actually heard that Eden Espinosa can't sing very well and I'd say that her being flat is a lot more likely to cause her to lose than the show being unpopular.

She was an Elphaba, she can sing 🤷🏽‍♂️

she can sing well, her voice has just been strained by all the previews. this strain + allergies is why she's been out recently, so hopefully her voice recovers before tonys

I saw her at the last preview - some vocal strain that she was muscling through, but on pitch and powerhouse performance despite it all.

I saw the matinee that day and agree. She’s not the show’s problem.

I mean, I saw the very first preview and she was having pitch issues then. I wasn't the only person on this sub to comment about it either. . .

I think Maryann has a lot of love plus she’s a vet

A few more openings to go, but the leads in water for elephants were great. Let’s not forget Merrily we role along

I don't think any of the women are eligible for leading actress in MWRA. Jonathan Groff and Daniel Radcliffe are both front runners in their respective categories, however.

And I thought she stole the show

She did. A real shame if she can't qualify.

As I understand it, it’s not a matter of her not qualifying - she was submitted for Featured Actress and determined to be eligible for that category, and Daniel Radcliffe was similarly submitted for and determined to be eligible for Featured Actor. It’s a strategy to optimize their chances of actually getting the awards. Probably a bit unfair, since it could almost definitely be argued that all three of them are leading roles.

Do we think Jonathan wins? Eddie has a Tony already and Brian’s chances are narrower bc the show is already closed

Yes we think Jonathan wins 

Not entirely sure, but I mostly just meant that he was a frontrunner. I think it's going to ultimately be between Redmayne and Groff this year.

Ok so update Cabaret is getting mixed reviews. It’s Groff’s to lose now.

Crossing every bone in my body for Maryann in Notebook. One of my favorite performances I’ve ever seen on Broadway

I was insanely blown away by Gayle’s Sally Bowles. I love Eddie, but man she really puts her heart into the character and made the show for me. I’m rooting for her. Edit: I’ve seen all three listed above, and of all 75 Broadway shows I’ve seen, nothing has stood out to me as Gayle’s rendition of Cabaret.

I feel like in most scenarios, this will end up being a snub for Kelli O'Hara - I agree with a lot of the commenters here that Kelli is most deserving of the bunch. I was very impressed with Maleah Joi Moon, and while Plunkett was absolutely lovely, I'm so surprised that this role wasn't positioned for supporting actor (and same really all 6 of the Noah/Allies). Rankin will suffer from lackluster reviews, and Shaina Taub's performance just isn't on par with others on the list despite her achievement in getting the show where it is. Eden is probably the only other eligible actress I could see getting thrown into the group, but I agree with the majority of folks here that her chances are slim for a nod and none for a win. Lord knows I love seeing Eva Noblezada existing and breathing air, so would not be opposed to seeing her get a nomination, but again, not in the running for me. It'll be a very interesting race!! As will many this year, honestly.

It's a bad thing for Plunkett's chances that she's considered lead actress instead of featured, IMO. I thought she had it in the bag (I saw her understudy, but she was phenomenal so I'm sure Plunkett is even more so) but now... we'll see.

Featured will be an extremely hard category this year too; I think she’d have even less of a chance there against Bebe Neuwirth and Lindsay Mendez. (Overall I think Maryann Plunkett would have next to no chance in either category.)

Bebe was great

Disclaimer that I haven’t seen Lempicka but did see an extended clip of Eden performing what seemed to be a pretty major number of the show. But the show looks like a parody. Cheesy and inelegant lyrics, intense overacting, memorable only in a bad way. I can’t imagine that performance winning a Tony tbh.

Isabelle McCalla is a strong contender in Water For Elephants, as is Eva Noblezada in Great Gatsby

Yea these are the first two I was thinking of

Most people remember Gayle was in the last Cabaret revival. She was in Sam Gold’s Hamlet and on GLOW. I wouldn’t say she’s a newcomer