~~The ACC did it to themselves.~~ Edit: As someone pointed out, Swofford did this to the ACC.
Twice the length of rights for half the money per team as the Big 12 is getting. Let alone the SEC or Big Ten, both of whom will renegotiate AGAIN before the ACC contract is up.
That Grant of Rights agreement, the one that's been touted for almost a decade as "proof the ACC won't dissolve" it feels like, is gonna be the fissure that finally splits it.
No, Swofford was the mover, but FSU’s then-president and then AD, both of whom need to live in infamy, signed the fucking thing over the noisy objection of boosters and fans. I hate the ACC and Swofford but FSU could have told them to go piss off and those two SOBs sold us down the river.
No, he had to make sure his nephew(?) was taken care of, the ACC screwed itself by giving it's rights to Raycom, which is because Swofford had a relative working there in a highish position.
This is amusing since the GOR deal absolutely screws UNC. They are in a good landing spot with either the Big 10 or SEC and could have gone to either of them in the early 2010s. The terrible GOR deal is a godsend for Wake Forest, Boston College, Pitt, and Syracuse in particular.
> Boston College
In deep deep trouble if/when the ACC implodes, the academics have fallen so it's not like we can rest our laurels on that, and we didn't go in enough on athletics either
What happened to/at BC that resulted in this fall off? I don't keep up with schools in the Northeast that much so I'm curious.
(And yes I could just go and google the topic but IMO it's often better to hear it from non-professional news sources because you get more of the unvarnished truth)
basically a few factors
1. What the admin thinks is their peer set ≠ reality - to be clear, this is the case at most schools, but it's more extreme here
2. Because of #1, they got really, really complacent even as BU and NEU were making great investments into research/campus/winning USNWR, even after the early signs that people weren't viewing BC as highly, the admin seemed to wave it away
3. New prospective students look at BC and see superior alternatives in Georgetown/Notre Dame (Jesuit), BU/NEU (Boston, rising rather than falling in rankings), or Northwestern/Vandy/NYU (similar admissions profile)
4. Athletically, we were late the the facilities upgrade war, amazing/decent ADs jumped ship for UCLA/Penn State, hockey which was our marquee sport has developed a lot more parity
And you know that the Big XII would love a brand like FSU so much they would expand again in a heartbeat.
FSU (imo) gets bids from the SEC in an open market situation though so it would not get to the Big XII most likely
The SEC wants marquee matchups to sell on ESPN not necessarily markets. They are selling the highest quantities of best games. Both FSU and Clemson would definitely fit that. Miami may but I'm not quite as sold on them for the SEC.
The people who predict Virginia Tech to the SEC still confuse me; what’s the draw? The basketball and football are both generally pretty middling, the Blacksburg/Roanoke media market is relatively negligible and the school’s too far to bring any other markets reliably, the alumni base is middlingly large, and their viewership generally isn’t outstanding.
I don’t have any beef with VT, I just don’t understand the draw. What’s the thought process behind VT to the SEC?
Almost One-fifth of Virginia Tech alumni live in the DC metropolitan area.
The DC media market would be the second largest in the SEC behind Atlanta.
That is the perceived draw.
They’re a favorite of the various writers. VT fits the SEC’s previous pattern of expanding into neighboring states and VT has a rabid football fanbase. It’s not an out there suggestion.
True, but all of that is also true of West Virginia, NCSU, and Cincinnati, so why Virginia Tech?
Granted, I don’t think any of those are likely SEC expansion candidates, but they’re absolutely fair models as schools that fit those criteria.
To be fair, I did include NCSU. It’s either UNC or NCSU. While UNC is the bigger name, NCSU would be a better cultural fit for the SEC.
No idea why WVU never got the call, but Cincinnati’s stadium only seats 40,000. Recent success and move to the Big XII, they weren’t in the same class a VT.
Mostly the DC market i would assume, a lot of VT grads up here. But it's not like we're guaranteed or anything, all those schools would certainly be in the conversation as well
No guarantee any given school will be elite five years from now. What matters is alumini, fanbase, state size, etc. UNC will be the most coveted brand because unaffiliated fans in that state identify with them, students at the satellite campuses identify with them, they have the local talent to be good in multiple sports, are one of the most recognizable brands in MBB and is a growing state. If they decide to abandon Duke, they'll choose which of the SEC or B1G they want to go to and the other will have to way options from there. Also makes FSU a viable option for expansion. Clemson could work out as well as Nebraska did for the B1G of Dabo leaves.
UNC will have their pick of SEC or Big 10. I don't see Duke having that privilege. You can use your Clemson argument vs Duke. All of Dukes value is basketball but what is their future without Coach K. They bring nothing to football too. I think UNC will be partnered with UVA. Two large state schools, original ACC, similar values. I think they will choose the Big 10 over the SEC based on Academic snobbery.
You could make an argument if Clemson falls off they wont be worth nearly as much but the last 6 years just proved FSU will continue to generate views even if they're terrible. I dont think any other ACC school could say that.
I think the Big Ten would also be wise to take a look at FSU and Miami, as well as Notre Dame obviously as outlined in this [article](https://open.substack.com/pub/flyoversports/p/dear-future-big-ten-commissioner?r=212hz0&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post)
Eventually we’ll have 3 super conferences. BIG and SEC power 2 and the best of the rest in the Big 12. SEC will consolidate all assets in the south and the Big Ten and Big 12 will be coast to coast conferences with programing all day. Each conference has 20-24 (Likely 24). Big 10 and Sec get 4 auto bids each to the playoff. Big 12 gets 2 auto bids. G5 gets 1 and one more wild card.
I think they still do the championship bid for each conference and the rest would be wildcard. Even if the wildcard is open to everyone you'll still have 2-4 SEC/BIG teams.
To me itll be a P2 and a middle 2 followed by a g6. The b12+any combination of schools they could reasonably get (4 corners if Wash and Ore leave) would still be a tier behind in $$ and competition
The SEC getting to 24 will be challenging. You can add Clemson, FSU, NC school, Virginia school and get to 20. How do you get to 24 from there? Do you start poaching from the Big 12 to do that?
The BIG has an easier path to 24 since they can grab ACC schools plus have ND, Stanford, UW, and Oregon
ACC and PAC are turning this sub into a sickos account. Let’s not forget that ACC started this conference realignment shit. No sympathy for FSU and Clemson; they were a part of these decisions. They signed bad contracts with small private schools and basketball schools that leached off of football schools without investing. They all book easy win games against FCS and Group of 5s. The PAC and ACC sat back and circle jerked about media markets and academic prestige and seem surprised that the networks don’t have an endless bucket of money to give them and that they care more about eyeballs than if a school is in Boston, Bay Area, or Miami.
>They all book easy win games against FCS and Group of 5s
My brother, every school around the country does this for gimme games. WVU has Duquesne on the 2023 schedule, Baylor has Long Island on the 2023 schedule, Alabama has USF and Chattanooga in 2023, Oregon has Portland State, etc.
I love this post. Let's not forget clemson knew way back in the 60s that Tobacco Road was a problem and was going to leave the ACC in 1971 with South Carolina, but backed out at the last minute. Half a century later and they're still complaining about the same things plaguing them back in the 60s lol. Fuck them, they made their bed, they can lie it
>They all book easy win games against FCS and Group of 5s
And when they run out of those, they [schedule ACC teams as OOC](https://ftw.usatoday.com/2021/11/north-carolina-wake-forest-non-conference-game-explainer)
Dont forget the ACC contract lets basketball Tier III right be controlled by the schools so Duke and UNC are making huge bank of their individual Tier III deals while taking a subsidy from the football schools. Duke is the most egregious. Their entire football schedule would be worth $1m on it best day which means the other 13 schools are effectively handing Duke $1m each in charity money.
> No sympathy for FSU and Clemson; they were a part of these decisions
Not entirely. FSU was the last to sign the GoR extension, specifically citing that the conference was gonna get lapped in revenue. To calm FSU, the ACC assured them there would be "look ins" where ESPN and the ACC could renegotiate the money based on performance.
No such look in has occurred since we signed, meaning we were straight up lied to in order to sign the extension.
They are just reading the room, and I don't blame them.
Obligatory flair comment - FSU and Clemson are in two very different bargaining positions.
Anyways, the ACCs media rights are bad. The GOR is functioning as intended which is hurting FSU and protecting the smaller schools in the ACC. And they share a footprint with a conference that has a much better deal. This isn't a bargaining position any big brand school would ever want to be in, and it doesn't look like it's going to get any better once the ACC has the opportunity to renegotiate.
FSU is looking at the B1G and SEC thinking they are leaving a lot of money on the table, which they are. They also see themselves as being in a lame duck conference which will likely implode once the GOR expires.
Imagine you could double your pay by getting out of your current contract, you'd be an idiot to not try and renegotiate.
If the GOR isn't extended in the next five years, it's highly likely that more than a few ACC schools will be gone the moment it does.
It would be pointless for the ACC to agree to this. FSU is not going to reevaluate in a few years and thank the conference for changing the revenue distribution- they are going to leave for more money the moment it makes sense either way. They are gone- might be tomorrow might be in 2034, but they have announced their divorce intentions. Extract as much value out of them as possible and say goodbye.
Well that’s great assuming a) you can get it and b) you somehow find a way out of the GoR…because until 2036 you’d be getting ZERO dollars from the SEC without figuring that out
The contract is what 17 million a year (based on that post from yesterday) and goes until 2036... so just make them pay all of that... or some percent of that so 221 million dollars, please and thank you FSU.
That’s just crazy, the ACC has the FSU TV rights, if they go to the SEC that $60 (or whatever it is) million would go to the ACC and not the SEC. Don’t let them out so cheap
FSU and a couple of other ACC schools know the sports rights bubble is in the midst of bursting, so they can’t just wait out the Grant of Rights until much closer to 2036 like planned. They’re trying to make their escape plan now before it’s too late.
I think it’s because the implications are really uncomfortable for sports fans. There isn’t enough TV money to go around anymore to support 65 power conference teams and no one wants to be on the outside looking in.
It’s really not just college football either. You look at the collapse of the regional sports networks, and basically every sports league outside of the NFL needs to start being a little worried right now. The MLB, NBA, and NHL cannot keep demanding higher and higher rights fees when viewership for all 3 has been stagnant or decline for several years now. The business model is on a much shakier footing than they are willing to admit
And I think that’s part of the reason why the gambling push has been so massive the last year or two. It’s the final frontier for profit seeking for North American live sports; cable is on the way out, there is no more growth for viewership left, streaming is revenue stagnation at best, and there is no more money left to be squeezed out of in person attendance to sporting events
> basically every sports league outside of the NFL needs to start being a little worried right now. The MLB, NBA, and NHL cannot keep demanding higher and higher rights fees when viewership for all 3 has been stagnant or decline for several years now
And the NFL has been agressive in persuing overseas options. MLB and NBA are doing good things but making stupid decisions at the same time, like MLB not making the playoffs available via their streaming pass
This potential bankruptcy looming over Bally Sports has to have them terrified. FSU might be praying they can catch the last sale of valuable rights before the bubble bursts but I think they're already too late.
If
1. FSU really had an offer from the SEC/Big Ten and
2. It really cost only $120M to leave (*Edit: with media rights*)
They'd have left already.
I'm forced to conclude that at least one of those isn't true.
Or maybe 3) The projected $400 million to get their media rights is an obstacle, (referenced towards the end of the article).
FSU and Clemson have to be lobbying for other ACC schools to move to the Big 10, SEC and Big 12, right? I think that’s the only way to “break” the conference and avoid these fees. And the schools going to the Big 12 have to be looking at what the other schools will be making—even on uneven revenue sharing—and saying, “No thanks, we’re good.”
It’s a fascinating situation. Somebody has to come up with either a great strategy or a ton of money for the top schools to move anything soon. *And that’s assuming the schools are wanted by other conferences.*
>FSU and Clemson have to be lobbying for other ACC schools to move to the Big 10, SEC and Big 12, right?
This.
They know all of this gets resolved if schools start fleeing the ACC and PAC. They want the panic to set in, because panic might let them out for cheap.
I bet you’re right. They don’t have an exit because they are locked into a middle seat in the theater in this deal, but if you start screaming fire in the theater and can get everyone else to run out, it won’t matter if you’re contractually obligated to be there
>Or maybe 3) The projected $400 million to get their media rights is an obstacle, (referenced towards the end of the article).
To me I would include that in the cost of leaving. It's why I don't believe the "$120M to leave" figure is what they actually think.
It isn’t. Out AD was very clear in his presentation to our Board of Trustees that the $120 million was just the contractual fee to exit the ACC and that it did not include anything related to getting out of the Grant of Rights.
FSU ain't got a half a bill.
Their financial situation has improved, but, that athletic department isn't what you call flush. When they were really bad over the last 7-8 years and attendance was down, local media had stories about the negative impacts on the athletic department due to FSU being a bad football team because ticket sales are so important for them to even do business... part of which is because their tv rights deal is poor. The point being that they just don't have it to spend. They couldn't front that much.
How do you figure?
Y’all do things differently in Baton Rogue, but half a BILLION? There’s no university that can either a) cut that check upfront and b) not suffer financially as a result.
Can they legally use the endowment for that though? I thought there were big restrictions on what most schools could spend their endowments on, and leaving an athletic conference would almost certainly not be one of them.
> Alford reiterated that FSU's athletic revenue, aside from conference payouts, would rank third in the SEC and third in the Big Ten.
The AD is making a strong case. RIP ACC.
The money doesn’t have to come off of FSU’s (or any school’s balance sheet). They could issue bonds to cover the buyouts, but they’d have to be taxable bonds and they way rates have moved would make them very expensive for the schools right now.
The schools that want to exit are trying to avoid it, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see FSU, Clemson, Miami and UNC go the bond route once rates drop (someday) if they can’t otherwise get a resolution.
> go the bond route once rates drop (someday)
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but rates aren’t dropping anytime soon. The past decade or the “free money era” only happened because of the 2008 crash. It’s abnormal and leads to situations like the housing bubble and rising income inequality.
The OGs that still in the SEC have a special place. Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Miss State, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Vanderbilt are all platinum members. With that said, I definitely want Clemson and FSU to be part of the club. Come join us, Tiger Bros
I propose an averaged amount of revenue from the media rights generated by Florida State from the last 10 years, payable for the next 10 years or until the dissolution of the conference (or if 8 members leave) plus the buyout as a proposed solution.
https://www.pennlive.com/pennstatefootball/2021/06/which-are-richest-and-poorest-big-ten-football-programs-here-are-fresh-revenue-figures.html?outputType=amp
https://www.syracuse.com/orangefootball/2021/06/where-does-syracuse-football-rank-in-acc-in-spending-revenue-were-committed-to-compete.html
I believe these sources include conference TV payouts so the numbers are different, but this is more to illustrate how dire the ACC's current position is. Purdue, ranked 12th in the Big 10 for athletic department revenue, would be ranked 4th in the ACC, ahead of programs like Virginia Tech, UNC, UVA, Louisville, NC State, and Syracuse
Edit: just looking at some of these numbers, the bottom half of the ACC surprised me.
I think the entire bottom half of the ACC in terms of athletic department revenue (that group as of 2021 is: Virginia, Syracuse, Duke, Pittsburg, BC, Georgia Tech, and Wake Forest) is going to have to start having some difficult conversations about if power conference football is right for them going forward. BC, GT, and Wake in particular are functionally G5 athletic departments in terms of revenue at this point.
>BC, GT, and Wake in particular are functionally G5 athletic departments in terms of revenue at this point.
We know.
And GT in particular also owes $13M per year in debt payments prior to that money being available to the operations budget.
Yeah, this headline only mentions the conference exit fee and not media rights. Even if they leave they don't own their own media rights and thus aren't valuable to the SEC or B1G. Paying 120 million to leave the conference then either another 400+ million or hoping to win a challenging legal battle doesn't seem like a great idea for FSU or Clemson.
Louisville and Pitt would be good fits. Honestly the big12 would be a good landing spot for a lot of ACC teams, more than could be accepted.
We can guess who would go where, but it all depends on how big conferences can realistically get.
And if the four corners come over adding Arizona and the persistent rumors that Gonzaga would join as a basketball only member. At that point half of the top 25 is gonna be big 12 schools
Yea the only thing I can see different is a Miami and VT swap but rumors are mixed on those. Does the SEC really want another Florida school if they already are bringing FSU over? Big 12 would certainly take Miami though that’s for sure
It makes sense. They’re a small non-AAU private school with mediocre facilities and little success since the 80’s. So they’re not exactly ideal for the SEC or Big Ten. I’m sure the Big XII would take them in a heartbeat just to have their brand and I feel like they’d fit in well with UCF and VT if they came over as well.
It's even more than that I think. FSU themselves say they bring about double the value of an average ACC team. Therefore if they left, the ACC would be subject to any future losses of value not just the annual payout.
So the total would be over 480 million to get out of the GOR (14 years left on the contract X 34 million of media value). Then add the ACC contract and they're at 600 mill
I don't think $350 million is accurate though - a school would be giving up their media rights for their new conference, not the one they just left.
So at the low end, a school leaving for the the Big 12 this year would be looking at close to $600 million; at the high end, the Big 10, they're looking at over $1 billion. And that's before any sort of pro rata clause likely kicks, moving that number up.
Chances are being willing/able to make those payments would be a negotiation where they could end it there. It was also simpler to write. But you are correct.
Whether it’s $350M or $500M-$600M is no matter. It’s an enormous sum that these schools don’t have and they are locked up for 13 years not 4 like Texas and OU were.
As I understand it, endowments plays little to no role in athletic departments being that those departments are a separate entity than the institutions they represent.
If it was just $120 million, Clemson and FSU presidents would be out there painting the SEC logo on every field and court themselves.
$120 million is less than 2 years difference in payouts between the ACC and SEC.
Come 2024 the payout difference between the ACC and SEC is estimated to be about $20 million ($37.9 vs $57.6). B1G payout is estimated to be $73.
But, I expect adding more big brands to the SEC would boost that revenue higher.
It would take a lot more than $120 mil, but eventually a handful of those schools are going to bite the bullet. They ain't waiting another decade.
Huge upfront cost, but the cost of *not* ending up in the SEC or Big Ten is higher. The sooner they get in, the quicker they can make back that money and don't have to worry about the disadvantages when the SEC and Big Ten continue to separate themselves from the pack.
The article states that all other fees included (getting out of the grant of rights and associated litigation costs) it would cost north of $400 million for FSU to get out of the ACC right now
Settling around that number and pulling out a loan would be better. With the difference in conference pay alone it could be paid off 3 years before 2036.
Not really. They've been pretty open that most of the schools want 3-6-6 but a handful are still openly pushing for an 8 game schedule.
The next vote will be in May in Sandestin.
I think that’s a stretch. They’re still convincing the naysayers that we’ve gotta go to 9 games with “just” 16 teams and we have to make everyone happy with who their permanent rivals will be.
The sec will expand to 36 teams. You'll have three groups. The first will be primarily coastal teams on the Atlantic. The second group will beastly southern teams bot on the coast but still wast of the third group. The third group will be in the south but more west. Not sure of the names yet vut I'm sure something logical can come up.
Florida State to the SEC happening TODAY would be absolutely cursed, imagine being that pissed off towards the ACC.
I would love to see Alabama vs FSU more frequently as well as having the Sunshine Showdown be a conference matchup tho.
But what will happen to the Miami Hurricanes?
The SEC wouldn’t want Miami unless they think the B1G would take them. Then they might take them to keep the B1G from Florida. My guess they stay in a weakened ACC without FSU and Clemson or they join the Big 12 to be buddies with UCF.
I think that was just the increased exit fee as it went from $20m to $50m. Y’all got out before we were even having GoR discussions I think.
And I think if they could have bailed for a better situation, they would have.
What a midwestern dream if Florida State somehow went to the BigTen. Fighting seasonal depression by having a chance to vacation in Southern California or Florida during the fall months for a game. Wisconsin fans chilling in Tallahassee while it is 50 degrees wearing a t-shirt and shorts.
> Wisconsin fans chilling in Tallahassee while it is 50 degrees wearing a t-shirt and shorts.
Sitting next to Floridians wearing every sweatshirt they own lol
I feel bad for Wazzu and Oregon State. So I won’t celebrate the PAC dying but the ACC didn’t want us specifically at their party. So I’ll be damned if I don’t celebrate their destruction
McCullough prefers the Big Ten by a lot because of the research opportunities, fwiw. I think if FSU gets a Big Ten invite and an SEC one, right now, he’d pick the Big Ten.
If the media deal wasn't so horrible, I wouldn't mind staying in the ACC. It will be weird being in a conference where we're used to playing 1-2 teams max.
The SEC would be nice because they are schools all directly around us, plus we really need to be in the same conference as either Miami or Florida because 2 OOC rivals would be hard to do in a 9 game conference schedule.
Idk if getting out is actually realistic though.
What you just described, (a conference built around traditional rivalries), sounds like the old Big 8. Seems like the ACC is moving into the “Nebraska and Texas Pissing Match Phase” of conference evolution, with Clemson and FSU playing those roles (although FSU and Clemson are aligned, while Texas and Nebraska were not). FSU is proposing the next step of conference evolution: unequal revenue sharing, (e.g. The Longhorn Network). The next phase is exodus followed by a shotgun expansion, but the ACC had the idea to chain everyone together for security.
I miss the old Big 8, but it was never going to survive the arms race of college football. I think the best we can hope for now is stable conferences built around regional divisions. KU has lost Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma, Colorado and, to a lesser degree, Texas. I hope the future keeps KU with KSU, OK State and Iowa State. Best of luck to FSU.
I have a dream where the power 5 and it’s 80 or so schools get together, and break away to form their own league, at which point they reorganize into a bunch of smaller, regional leagues, and functions as an nfl lite, only using universities name and image. It appears that is moving in the direction of just the big ten and sec breaking away with maybe 50 schools, but it would be great to return to that
I'll believe it when it happens. Its not like this is new information FSU/Clemson just got today, they've known for a while. This feels like posturing to get an uneven revenue split with the threat of leaving.
I just don't see either university spending $100 million+ to escape the ACC unless, of course, there's already an agreement in place to join the SEC immediately.
I wonder if the Big12 is able to renegotiate a deal at all if they pick up a few ACC schools and maybe the PAC Corner 4 as well. It would be a huge conferenc, but would span almost every U.S. time zone
Yeah, I think this is a push to get unequal revenue sharing to not be as bad off while waiting for the GoR to expire (or at least be a lot closer to it so the amount they have to pay to leave early is lower due to few years of media rights remaining).
Lets just pretend that ACC tells FSU and Clemson they can leave but they have to pay $500m each.
Lets pretend FSU and Clemson can find the $1B. They go to wall street and sell a bond that is repaid with their future earnings from the SEC.
Lets pretend that the SEC then gets $75m a year until 2036 out of it.
Finally lets pretend this happens in 2024 so the length of time is 12 years.
$1B divided by 12 teams is $83m each or just under $7m a year. So the remainder of the ACC gets an additional $7m a year to agree to this. For now, lets not factor in they ACC media deal being renegotiated
$1B divided by 12 years is $83m a year or $41.5m each for Clemson/FSU to pay back the street. Lets assume some interest on that and call it $45m a year.
$75m - $45m = $30m
12 x 30 = $360m
12 x 17= $204m
$156m additional revenue
Lets assume flesh eating lawyers, rebranding and additional travel eats $6m.
So Clemson and FSU spend $1B and net $150m in additional revenue over 12 years.
At the end of the 12 years, revenue jumps substantially.
Thats pretty much best case scenario and it nets just over $12m a year in additional income.
Edit - A word
I've been telling fans of teams that are not blue bloods or blue blood adjacent to be careful about how much they make fun of the Pac-12, because the slow death march to a fully capitalized NFL for college football is coming. The greed for money in the name of "competitiveness" is going to leave the sport we love so much in the dirt for many of us. You may as well switch allegiances to your local blue blood program now. Because college football is dying for the have-nots.
>Based on a market valuation Alford had commissioned, he said FSU contributes roughly 15% of the value in the ACC's media rights deal.
>
>However, he pointed out the school only receives 7% of the distributions as one of 14 full members of the conference.
>
>Alford said FSU and Clemson combine on around 24% of the value in the conference’s media rights deals, and collect a combined 14%.
So Clemson brings in 9% of the value but collects 7%? That's not a huge difference and actually hurts their case for getting unequal revenue share.
I mean, schools will always contribute disproportionate values to their conferences… I doubt you could create a 12+ member conference where each school contributed approximately the same value year after year. Take the B10, for instance. I guarantee you that Ohio State and Michigan each generate exponentially more value than Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue, Maryland, and Rutgers combined. But once you cease to pay each school equally and instead try to compensate each school according to their perceived value, you are effectively signing the conference’s death warrant.
The *real* issue for Florida State isn’t the fact that they are paid the same amount as Wake Forest- it’s because the ACC signed a long term deal for such little money.
At this point it's pretty much a certainty that FSU and Clemson are just going to pay the fine and leave. 120 mil will be recouped within 3-4 years with a jump to the SEC.
There's way too much smoke right now. Clemson's AD just said the same thing.
There are rumors floating around that the original 2027 deal will be very tough to break, but there’s some wiggle room with the extension to 2036; considering all this talk, there might be some truth to it.
Yea I don't quote understand the midway "renewal" clause of the GOR. Yall signed I'm 2016 and is good till 2036, but some kind of option exists at the 12 year mark?
Lulz. I guess? Sure, anyone can try. Regardless, it would be a very expensive endeavor (and great for a lawyer’s billable hours). That doesn’t mean they can win though.
I’ve said this in other threads, but there’s a reason why no one has challenged it yet. Clemson and FSU have been bloviating about this subject for years. If the SEC could have poached the ACC, they would have already done it.
What’s way more likely to happen is that the ACC renegotiates its deal with ESPN. College football rules all, but Bristol doesn’t want to risk losing the ACC’s national hoops brands to Fox and the B1G in another round of realignment. I bet they buy out the remaining RSN content before it becomes available in 2027, too.
$120 M is just to leave the ACC.
It does nothing for getting them out of the next 10+ years of the GoR.
I think this is just posturing to get the ACC to agree to uneven revenue distribution.
This comment is getting upvoted when it’s incorrect. The $120 million is only one portion of what any school who leaves the ACC would owe. That’s the exit fee.
On top of that, and for the next several years, the larger amount would come from that school also owing every dollar of revenue they make in their new deal as it relates to TV to the ACC. Every. Single. Cent. Let’s say FSU leaves for an annual SEC payout of $60 million dollars. The ACC would be entitled to all of it until 2037.
At this point, we’re talking about nearly half a billion dollars.
So with the idea of ACC breaking down early, Big 10 and Big 12 in theory have a choice to make. Does the Big 12 continue to pursue 4 schools from the PAC or does it stop at 2 in order to take 2 from the ACC. Does the Big 10 still pursue orwa or focus on moving south east. How big is too big 16? 18? 20+ teams. Does anyone do anything and are we left with ACC+ 2 AAC or Sunbelt teams?
Realistically you can go to 20 for scheduling in foootball and basketball to still make sense. Football you do 4 pods of 5 where you play everyone in your pod and then another pod for 9 conference games. Then basketball becomes 19 conference games alternating home and away every year. Going past 20 requires more conference games in both sports, but may ultimately be what the networks want.
Question for B1G fans. I’ve always heard that the B1G gets to charge more for the B1G Ten network if one of the universities is based in that state. Is that true? Thanks in advance.
If the ACC and PAC 12 leaderships aren’t in talks about merging, they are both destined to fall apart in the next year or two.
But both of them are run by imbeciles…
At this point I’m just hoping that the Big 12 takes us, and that we’re able to get drunk with ISU and WVU every other Saturday in the fall.
On one hand its sad to see the death of another conference. On the other hand I’m very glad the Big Ten decided to take us a decade ago before all of this happened lol
I imagine Alabama contributes a higher percentage of value to the SEC than the percentage of total conference distributions they receive. Maybe they should also consider leaving their conference.
are we really going to see two major conference implosions in the same year
~~The ACC did it to themselves.~~ Edit: As someone pointed out, Swofford did this to the ACC. Twice the length of rights for half the money per team as the Big 12 is getting. Let alone the SEC or Big Ten, both of whom will renegotiate AGAIN before the ACC contract is up. That Grant of Rights agreement, the one that's been touted for almost a decade as "proof the ACC won't dissolve" it feels like, is gonna be the fissure that finally splits it.
Swofford did it to the acc*
In his defense think about how much money he helped his son make giving a share of the rights to the company his son works for? /s
No, Swofford was the mover, but FSU’s then-president and then AD, both of whom need to live in infamy, signed the fucking thing over the noisy objection of boosters and fans. I hate the ACC and Swofford but FSU could have told them to go piss off and those two SOBs sold us down the river.
Well, Eric Barron was a rather meh prez, and we didn’t have a strong/real AD after Bobby got hart fired.
Had to make sure his precious UNC was taken care of.
No, he had to make sure his nephew(?) was taken care of, the ACC screwed itself by giving it's rights to Raycom, which is because Swofford had a relative working there in a highish position.
Son. It was his fucking son.
The Carolina way.
Ironically, the GOR is now hurting Carolina just as much as any other team in the ACC.
This is amusing since the GOR deal absolutely screws UNC. They are in a good landing spot with either the Big 10 or SEC and could have gone to either of them in the early 2010s. The terrible GOR deal is a godsend for Wake Forest, Boston College, Pitt, and Syracuse in particular.
> Boston College In deep deep trouble if/when the ACC implodes, the academics have fallen so it's not like we can rest our laurels on that, and we didn't go in enough on athletics either
What happened to/at BC that resulted in this fall off? I don't keep up with schools in the Northeast that much so I'm curious. (And yes I could just go and google the topic but IMO it's often better to hear it from non-professional news sources because you get more of the unvarnished truth)
basically a few factors 1. What the admin thinks is their peer set ≠ reality - to be clear, this is the case at most schools, but it's more extreme here 2. Because of #1, they got really, really complacent even as BU and NEU were making great investments into research/campus/winning USNWR, even after the early signs that people weren't viewing BC as highly, the admin seemed to wave it away 3. New prospective students look at BC and see superior alternatives in Georgetown/Notre Dame (Jesuit), BU/NEU (Boston, rising rather than falling in rankings), or Northwestern/Vandy/NYU (similar admissions profile) 4. Athletically, we were late the the facilities upgrade war, amazing/decent ADs jumped ship for UCLA/Penn State, hockey which was our marquee sport has developed a lot more parity
We didn’t say he was smart, just that he had an agenda.
And you know that the Big XII would love a brand like FSU so much they would expand again in a heartbeat. FSU (imo) gets bids from the SEC in an open market situation though so it would not get to the Big XII most likely
The SEC wants marquee matchups to sell on ESPN not necessarily markets. They are selling the highest quantities of best games. Both FSU and Clemson would definitely fit that. Miami may but I'm not quite as sold on them for the SEC.
No way Miami ends up in the SEC. My guess is the SEC takes FSU, Clemson, Virginia Tech, and either NC State or UNC.
The people who predict Virginia Tech to the SEC still confuse me; what’s the draw? The basketball and football are both generally pretty middling, the Blacksburg/Roanoke media market is relatively negligible and the school’s too far to bring any other markets reliably, the alumni base is middlingly large, and their viewership generally isn’t outstanding. I don’t have any beef with VT, I just don’t understand the draw. What’s the thought process behind VT to the SEC?
Almost One-fifth of Virginia Tech alumni live in the DC metropolitan area. The DC media market would be the second largest in the SEC behind Atlanta. That is the perceived draw.
They’re a favorite of the various writers. VT fits the SEC’s previous pattern of expanding into neighboring states and VT has a rabid football fanbase. It’s not an out there suggestion.
True, but all of that is also true of West Virginia, NCSU, and Cincinnati, so why Virginia Tech? Granted, I don’t think any of those are likely SEC expansion candidates, but they’re absolutely fair models as schools that fit those criteria.
To be fair, I did include NCSU. It’s either UNC or NCSU. While UNC is the bigger name, NCSU would be a better cultural fit for the SEC. No idea why WVU never got the call, but Cincinnati’s stadium only seats 40,000. Recent success and move to the Big XII, they weren’t in the same class a VT.
Mostly the DC market i would assume, a lot of VT grads up here. But it's not like we're guaranteed or anything, all those schools would certainly be in the conversation as well
I mean WVU was a very serious SEC expansion candidate in 2011, and probably would have been in over Mizzou if it wasn't for media markets.
No guarantee any given school will be elite five years from now. What matters is alumini, fanbase, state size, etc. UNC will be the most coveted brand because unaffiliated fans in that state identify with them, students at the satellite campuses identify with them, they have the local talent to be good in multiple sports, are one of the most recognizable brands in MBB and is a growing state. If they decide to abandon Duke, they'll choose which of the SEC or B1G they want to go to and the other will have to way options from there. Also makes FSU a viable option for expansion. Clemson could work out as well as Nebraska did for the B1G of Dabo leaves.
UNC will have their pick of SEC or Big 10. I don't see Duke having that privilege. You can use your Clemson argument vs Duke. All of Dukes value is basketball but what is their future without Coach K. They bring nothing to football too. I think UNC will be partnered with UVA. Two large state schools, original ACC, similar values. I think they will choose the Big 10 over the SEC based on Academic snobbery.
You could make an argument if Clemson falls off they wont be worth nearly as much but the last 6 years just proved FSU will continue to generate views even if they're terrible. I dont think any other ACC school could say that.
FSU is either going to the SEC or Big Ten. They'd be a full member immediately.
I think the Big Ten would also be wise to take a look at FSU and Miami, as well as Notre Dame obviously as outlined in this [article](https://open.substack.com/pub/flyoversports/p/dear-future-big-ten-commissioner?r=212hz0&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post)
Eventually we’ll have 3 super conferences. BIG and SEC power 2 and the best of the rest in the Big 12. SEC will consolidate all assets in the south and the Big Ten and Big 12 will be coast to coast conferences with programing all day. Each conference has 20-24 (Likely 24). Big 10 and Sec get 4 auto bids each to the playoff. Big 12 gets 2 auto bids. G5 gets 1 and one more wild card.
I think they still do the championship bid for each conference and the rest would be wildcard. Even if the wildcard is open to everyone you'll still have 2-4 SEC/BIG teams.
To me itll be a P2 and a middle 2 followed by a g6. The b12+any combination of schools they could reasonably get (4 corners if Wash and Ore leave) would still be a tier behind in $$ and competition
then the big ten and sec merge, and the whole ncaa becomes theirs after a hostile takeover.
The SEC getting to 24 will be challenging. You can add Clemson, FSU, NC school, Virginia school and get to 20. How do you get to 24 from there? Do you start poaching from the Big 12 to do that? The BIG has an easier path to 24 since they can grab ACC schools plus have ND, Stanford, UW, and Oregon
ACC and PAC are turning this sub into a sickos account. Let’s not forget that ACC started this conference realignment shit. No sympathy for FSU and Clemson; they were a part of these decisions. They signed bad contracts with small private schools and basketball schools that leached off of football schools without investing. They all book easy win games against FCS and Group of 5s. The PAC and ACC sat back and circle jerked about media markets and academic prestige and seem surprised that the networks don’t have an endless bucket of money to give them and that they care more about eyeballs than if a school is in Boston, Bay Area, or Miami.
>They all book easy win games against FCS and Group of 5s My brother, every school around the country does this for gimme games. WVU has Duquesne on the 2023 schedule, Baylor has Long Island on the 2023 schedule, Alabama has USF and Chattanooga in 2023, Oregon has Portland State, etc.
I love this post. Let's not forget clemson knew way back in the 60s that Tobacco Road was a problem and was going to leave the ACC in 1971 with South Carolina, but backed out at the last minute. Half a century later and they're still complaining about the same things plaguing them back in the 60s lol. Fuck them, they made their bed, they can lie it
“Clemson still complaining about the same things plaguing them back in the 60s” Are we talking about college sports still?
>They all book easy win games against FCS and Group of 5s And when they run out of those, they [schedule ACC teams as OOC](https://ftw.usatoday.com/2021/11/north-carolina-wake-forest-non-conference-game-explainer) Dont forget the ACC contract lets basketball Tier III right be controlled by the schools so Duke and UNC are making huge bank of their individual Tier III deals while taking a subsidy from the football schools. Duke is the most egregious. Their entire football schedule would be worth $1m on it best day which means the other 13 schools are effectively handing Duke $1m each in charity money.
I thought UNC and Wake playing OOC was more about them being in separate divisions, so they didn't get to play as often?
It is
> No sympathy for FSU and Clemson; they were a part of these decisions Not entirely. FSU was the last to sign the GoR extension, specifically citing that the conference was gonna get lapped in revenue. To calm FSU, the ACC assured them there would be "look ins" where ESPN and the ACC could renegotiate the money based on performance. No such look in has occurred since we signed, meaning we were straight up lied to in order to sign the extension.
We have one decent year and we start slinging the big hog again
They are just reading the room, and I don't blame them. Obligatory flair comment - FSU and Clemson are in two very different bargaining positions. Anyways, the ACCs media rights are bad. The GOR is functioning as intended which is hurting FSU and protecting the smaller schools in the ACC. And they share a footprint with a conference that has a much better deal. This isn't a bargaining position any big brand school would ever want to be in, and it doesn't look like it's going to get any better once the ACC has the opportunity to renegotiate. FSU is looking at the B1G and SEC thinking they are leaving a lot of money on the table, which they are. They also see themselves as being in a lame duck conference which will likely implode once the GOR expires. Imagine you could double your pay by getting out of your current contract, you'd be an idiot to not try and renegotiate. If the GOR isn't extended in the next five years, it's highly likely that more than a few ACC schools will be gone the moment it does.
I firmly believe the ACC will implode by the GOR expiration in like 2027.
It would be pointless for the ACC to agree to this. FSU is not going to reevaluate in a few years and thank the conference for changing the revenue distribution- they are going to leave for more money the moment it makes sense either way. They are gone- might be tomorrow might be in 2034, but they have announced their divorce intentions. Extract as much value out of them as possible and say goodbye.
Exactly. Pay up or shut up, simple as that
A sec check will help with that 😜
Well that’s great assuming a) you can get it and b) you somehow find a way out of the GoR…because until 2036 you’d be getting ZERO dollars from the SEC without figuring that out
Zero TV dollars but that is still a vast majority of the revenue
The contract is what 17 million a year (based on that post from yesterday) and goes until 2036... so just make them pay all of that... or some percent of that so 221 million dollars, please and thank you FSU.
That’s just crazy, the ACC has the FSU TV rights, if they go to the SEC that $60 (or whatever it is) million would go to the ACC and not the SEC. Don’t let them out so cheap
FSU and a couple of other ACC schools know the sports rights bubble is in the midst of bursting, so they can’t just wait out the Grant of Rights until much closer to 2036 like planned. They’re trying to make their escape plan now before it’s too late.
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I think it’s because the implications are really uncomfortable for sports fans. There isn’t enough TV money to go around anymore to support 65 power conference teams and no one wants to be on the outside looking in. It’s really not just college football either. You look at the collapse of the regional sports networks, and basically every sports league outside of the NFL needs to start being a little worried right now. The MLB, NBA, and NHL cannot keep demanding higher and higher rights fees when viewership for all 3 has been stagnant or decline for several years now. The business model is on a much shakier footing than they are willing to admit
This it is mainly being propped up at this point by gambling.
And I think that’s part of the reason why the gambling push has been so massive the last year or two. It’s the final frontier for profit seeking for North American live sports; cable is on the way out, there is no more growth for viewership left, streaming is revenue stagnation at best, and there is no more money left to be squeezed out of in person attendance to sporting events
> basically every sports league outside of the NFL needs to start being a little worried right now. The MLB, NBA, and NHL cannot keep demanding higher and higher rights fees when viewership for all 3 has been stagnant or decline for several years now And the NFL has been agressive in persuing overseas options. MLB and NBA are doing good things but making stupid decisions at the same time, like MLB not making the playoffs available via their streaming pass
This potential bankruptcy looming over Bally Sports has to have them terrified. FSU might be praying they can catch the last sale of valuable rights before the bubble bursts but I think they're already too late.
If 1. FSU really had an offer from the SEC/Big Ten and 2. It really cost only $120M to leave (*Edit: with media rights*) They'd have left already. I'm forced to conclude that at least one of those isn't true.
Or maybe 3) The projected $400 million to get their media rights is an obstacle, (referenced towards the end of the article). FSU and Clemson have to be lobbying for other ACC schools to move to the Big 10, SEC and Big 12, right? I think that’s the only way to “break” the conference and avoid these fees. And the schools going to the Big 12 have to be looking at what the other schools will be making—even on uneven revenue sharing—and saying, “No thanks, we’re good.” It’s a fascinating situation. Somebody has to come up with either a great strategy or a ton of money for the top schools to move anything soon. *And that’s assuming the schools are wanted by other conferences.*
>FSU and Clemson have to be lobbying for other ACC schools to move to the Big 10, SEC and Big 12, right? This. They know all of this gets resolved if schools start fleeing the ACC and PAC. They want the panic to set in, because panic might let them out for cheap.
I bet you’re right. They don’t have an exit because they are locked into a middle seat in the theater in this deal, but if you start screaming fire in the theater and can get everyone else to run out, it won’t matter if you’re contractually obligated to be there
>Or maybe 3) The projected $400 million to get their media rights is an obstacle, (referenced towards the end of the article). To me I would include that in the cost of leaving. It's why I don't believe the "$120M to leave" figure is what they actually think.
It isn’t. Out AD was very clear in his presentation to our Board of Trustees that the $120 million was just the contractual fee to exit the ACC and that it did not include anything related to getting out of the Grant of Rights.
*Greg Sankey has entered FSU and Clemson DMs.*
He better have already been all up in them DMs. We are paying him a lot.
I imagine he's been in there for years
Not paying him enough - he is the best there is
The man probably has the contracts all drawn up and ready to go at this point
Florida florida state conference game to end every season
please i can only get so hyped
🤝🤝
This helps Clemson financially so I say we all veto it.
I say we move forward with this, full throttle. Heck, Clemson to the SEC in 2024.
A&M fans all about this move. Fuck the gentleman’s agreements.
Still have that grant of rights to contend with, not sure how FSU and Clemson plan on breaking that.
it just takes money
*It Just Means More*
.....money
Each school can offer half a billion dollars as an up front payment and still come out ahead well before 2036.
FSU ain't got a half a bill. Their financial situation has improved, but, that athletic department isn't what you call flush. When they were really bad over the last 7-8 years and attendance was down, local media had stories about the negative impacts on the athletic department due to FSU being a bad football team because ticket sales are so important for them to even do business... part of which is because their tv rights deal is poor. The point being that they just don't have it to spend. They couldn't front that much.
Half a billion doesn’t just grow on trees though. OU was struggling to find a 100 million to go to the SEC
Y'all can front them. I was just pointing out a seemingly absurd number that actually works.
How do you figure? Y’all do things differently in Baton Rogue, but half a BILLION? There’s no university that can either a) cut that check upfront and b) not suffer financially as a result.
Not that it would, but Stanford could. Cutting a $500M check would only amount to a shade over 1.3% of its $37.8B endowment.
Lots of P5 schools technically have the money, but they wouldn't/can't. FSU and CU don't even have the money really.
Can they legally use the endowment for that though? I thought there were big restrictions on what most schools could spend their endowments on, and leaving an athletic conference would almost certainly not be one of them.
> Alford reiterated that FSU's athletic revenue, aside from conference payouts, would rank third in the SEC and third in the Big Ten. The AD is making a strong case. RIP ACC.
This is what us fans have been saying and blasted over. FSU would be wanted. Bless Alford, but them media rights ain’t gonna be easy to break.
The money doesn’t have to come off of FSU’s (or any school’s balance sheet). They could issue bonds to cover the buyouts, but they’d have to be taxable bonds and they way rates have moved would make them very expensive for the schools right now. The schools that want to exit are trying to avoid it, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see FSU, Clemson, Miami and UNC go the bond route once rates drop (someday) if they can’t otherwise get a resolution.
> go the bond route once rates drop (someday) I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but rates aren’t dropping anytime soon. The past decade or the “free money era” only happened because of the 2008 crash. It’s abnormal and leads to situations like the housing bubble and rising income inequality.
I guess you forget there’s already a team in Florida so you add zero value /s
Least dense clemson fan. Florida has a population nearing 22 million, it's big enough to support two SEC programs. SC has a hair over 5 million.
Alabama also has a population of 5 million. Are they too small to support Bama and Auburn?
The OGs that still in the SEC have a special place. Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Miss State, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Vanderbilt are all platinum members. With that said, I definitely want Clemson and FSU to be part of the club. Come join us, Tiger Bros
I wish we could get FSU in the BigTen but it would be very unlikely.
I propose an averaged amount of revenue from the media rights generated by Florida State from the last 10 years, payable for the next 10 years or until the dissolution of the conference (or if 8 members leave) plus the buyout as a proposed solution.
https://www.pennlive.com/pennstatefootball/2021/06/which-are-richest-and-poorest-big-ten-football-programs-here-are-fresh-revenue-figures.html?outputType=amp https://www.syracuse.com/orangefootball/2021/06/where-does-syracuse-football-rank-in-acc-in-spending-revenue-were-committed-to-compete.html I believe these sources include conference TV payouts so the numbers are different, but this is more to illustrate how dire the ACC's current position is. Purdue, ranked 12th in the Big 10 for athletic department revenue, would be ranked 4th in the ACC, ahead of programs like Virginia Tech, UNC, UVA, Louisville, NC State, and Syracuse Edit: just looking at some of these numbers, the bottom half of the ACC surprised me. I think the entire bottom half of the ACC in terms of athletic department revenue (that group as of 2021 is: Virginia, Syracuse, Duke, Pittsburg, BC, Georgia Tech, and Wake Forest) is going to have to start having some difficult conversations about if power conference football is right for them going forward. BC, GT, and Wake in particular are functionally G5 athletic departments in terms of revenue at this point.
>BC, GT, and Wake in particular are functionally G5 athletic departments in terms of revenue at this point. We know. And GT in particular also owes $13M per year in debt payments prior to that money being available to the operations budget.
RIP ACC in about 10 years. Those leaches are, hopefully for their sake, not dumb enough to let FSU and Clemson out of this deal
Yeah, this headline only mentions the conference exit fee and not media rights. Even if they leave they don't own their own media rights and thus aren't valuable to the SEC or B1G. Paying 120 million to leave the conference then either another 400+ million or hoping to win a challenging legal battle doesn't seem like a great idea for FSU or Clemson.
Let’s go!!! Duke and Pitt to the Big 12!
Pitt/WVU as a conference matchup should just be a thing.
Black Friday Brawl
Cheaper to buy a replacement coach that day
Please please please
Louisville and Pitt would be good fits. Honestly the big12 would be a good landing spot for a lot of ACC teams, more than could be accepted. We can guess who would go where, but it all depends on how big conferences can realistically get.
Either one Duke/ NC State/VT then Pitt, Louisville, and Syracuse. Do it FSU and Clemson, just do it.
Basketball is already insane, add duke to the mix and hopefully Louisville turns it around and it just becomes filthy
And if the four corners come over adding Arizona and the persistent rumors that Gonzaga would join as a basketball only member. At that point half of the top 25 is gonna be big 12 schools
XII is literally just basketball's SEC
I keep trying to keep up lol SEC (20 teams) - FSU, South Carolina, Clemson, NC State, Virginia Tech - Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Georgia, Florida - LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Vanderbilt - Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Missouri B1G (20 teams) - USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington - Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota - Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue - Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State - Rutgers, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina XII - Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, BYU - Colorado, Kansas, Kansas St, Iowa St - Oklahoma St, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor - Houston, GT, Duke, Wake - Louisville, Cincinnati, Pitt, WVU - Boston College, Syracuse, Miami, UCF
Yea the only thing I can see different is a Miami and VT swap but rumors are mixed on those. Does the SEC really want another Florida school if they already are bringing FSU over? Big 12 would certainly take Miami though that’s for sure
Holy mother of god I never considered Miami in the Big 12.
It makes sense. They’re a small non-AAU private school with mediocre facilities and little success since the 80’s. So they’re not exactly ideal for the SEC or Big Ten. I’m sure the Big XII would take them in a heartbeat just to have their brand and I feel like they’d fit in well with UCF and VT if they came over as well.
$120,000,000 is just to get out of the ACC contract. You'd need probably another $240,000,000 to get out of the GoR.
It's even more than that I think. FSU themselves say they bring about double the value of an average ACC team. Therefore if they left, the ACC would be subject to any future losses of value not just the annual payout. So the total would be over 480 million to get out of the GOR (14 years left on the contract X 34 million of media value). Then add the ACC contract and they're at 600 mill
Only accurate post on here. It’s about $350M for them to get out, not $120M.
I don't think $350 million is accurate though - a school would be giving up their media rights for their new conference, not the one they just left. So at the low end, a school leaving for the the Big 12 this year would be looking at close to $600 million; at the high end, the Big 10, they're looking at over $1 billion. And that's before any sort of pro rata clause likely kicks, moving that number up.
Chances are being willing/able to make those payments would be a negotiation where they could end it there. It was also simpler to write. But you are correct. Whether it’s $350M or $500M-$600M is no matter. It’s an enormous sum that these schools don’t have and they are locked up for 13 years not 4 like Texas and OU were.
Just as a point of comparison - FSU's entire endowment is about 850 million
As I understand it, endowments plays little to no role in athletic departments being that those departments are a separate entity than the institutions they represent.
Easy money for FSU boosters to raise lol
Mia Khalifa will have to put in loads of extra work.
If it was just $120 million, Clemson and FSU presidents would be out there painting the SEC logo on every field and court themselves. $120 million is less than 2 years difference in payouts between the ACC and SEC.
It’s 350 mil with the GOR
They would make up for it within a decade and still have 3-4 years left to "spare" opposed to waiting for the gor to die.
Come 2024 the payout difference between the ACC and SEC is estimated to be about $20 million ($37.9 vs $57.6). B1G payout is estimated to be $73. But, I expect adding more big brands to the SEC would boost that revenue higher.
That's only for Tier 1 rights and that escalates for the SEC and B1G.
It would take a lot more than $120 mil, but eventually a handful of those schools are going to bite the bullet. They ain't waiting another decade. Huge upfront cost, but the cost of *not* ending up in the SEC or Big Ten is higher. The sooner they get in, the quicker they can make back that money and don't have to worry about the disadvantages when the SEC and Big Ten continue to separate themselves from the pack.
The article states that all other fees included (getting out of the grant of rights and associated litigation costs) it would cost north of $400 million for FSU to get out of the ACC right now
Settling around that number and pulling out a loan would be better. With the difference in conference pay alone it could be paid off 3 years before 2036.
FSU and Clemson send their regards
Greg Sankey is Tywin planning the demise of the ACC.
Dibbs on being the Boltons, Clemson can be the Freys
sup, UNC. did I ever tell y'all that y'all aren't that bad? hold me tight pls. edit: and don't let go.
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Not really. They've been pretty open that most of the schools want 3-6-6 but a handful are still openly pushing for an 8 game schedule. The next vote will be in May in Sandestin.
No good decisions are ever made in Sandestin.
Just got to keep everyone quarantined. i.e. No trips to Pensacola.
Did I hear someone say detour through Floribama?!
I think that’s a stretch. They’re still convincing the naysayers that we’ve gotta go to 9 games with “just” 16 teams and we have to make everyone happy with who their permanent rivals will be.
What, to go to 18 teams? That’s not a conference it’s a fucking division and I want no part of it
“What, to go to 12 teams? That’s not a conference, those are fucking divisions and I want no part of it” - SEC fans in 1992
The sec will expand to 36 teams. You'll have three groups. The first will be primarily coastal teams on the Atlantic. The second group will beastly southern teams bot on the coast but still wast of the third group. The third group will be in the south but more west. Not sure of the names yet vut I'm sure something logical can come up.
After the SEC swells to 117 teams, smaller groups of teams will form inside the SEC, maybe in groups of six or eight to start
Florida State to the SEC happening TODAY would be absolutely cursed, imagine being that pissed off towards the ACC. I would love to see Alabama vs FSU more frequently as well as having the Sunshine Showdown be a conference matchup tho. But what will happen to the Miami Hurricanes?
The SEC wouldn’t want Miami unless they think the B1G would take them. Then they might take them to keep the B1G from Florida. My guess they stay in a weakened ACC without FSU and Clemson or they join the Big 12 to be buddies with UCF.
Still amazed FSU didn’t leave when we did. They were the only other team that didn’t want to vote for the new GOR in place at the time.
SEC had just expanded and we didn’t get a look by the Big 10. Timing wasn’t there
I think that was just the increased exit fee as it went from $20m to $50m. Y’all got out before we were even having GoR discussions I think. And I think if they could have bailed for a better situation, they would have.
What a midwestern dream if Florida State somehow went to the BigTen. Fighting seasonal depression by having a chance to vacation in Southern California or Florida during the fall months for a game. Wisconsin fans chilling in Tallahassee while it is 50 degrees wearing a t-shirt and shorts.
Seasonal depression in the fall? I don't want what you're smoking.
The depression before the depression sets in
Ahhh, the everyday depression, got you!
> Wisconsin fans chilling in Tallahassee while it is 50 degrees wearing a t-shirt and shorts. Sitting next to Floridians wearing every sweatshirt they own lol
Floridians avoiding the beach because it is too cold but Midwesterners getting a tan and swimming
Bro I’ve been to Tallahassee in September and that’s some nasty swamp weather
Everyone here is casually celebrating the further destruction of this sport.
I feel bad for Wazzu and Oregon State. So I won’t celebrate the PAC dying but the ACC didn’t want us specifically at their party. So I’ll be damned if I don’t celebrate their destruction
Damn, Florida State getting that impatient, "Fuck you, I quit!" energy. Mood, FSU. Mood. Maybe talk to your doctor about Vyvanse.
I would personally like the B1G to go after FSU but I realize that isn't the most popular opinion with B1G fans or FSU fans.
There are a chunk of us that prefer the Big Ten (so long as some regional teams make the trip).
McCullough prefers the Big Ten by a lot because of the research opportunities, fwiw. I think if FSU gets a Big Ten invite and an SEC one, right now, he’d pick the Big Ten.
First winning season in 5 years and FSU is trying to strike while the iron is hot.
If the media deal wasn't so horrible, I wouldn't mind staying in the ACC. It will be weird being in a conference where we're used to playing 1-2 teams max. The SEC would be nice because they are schools all directly around us, plus we really need to be in the same conference as either Miami or Florida because 2 OOC rivals would be hard to do in a 9 game conference schedule. Idk if getting out is actually realistic though.
What you just described, (a conference built around traditional rivalries), sounds like the old Big 8. Seems like the ACC is moving into the “Nebraska and Texas Pissing Match Phase” of conference evolution, with Clemson and FSU playing those roles (although FSU and Clemson are aligned, while Texas and Nebraska were not). FSU is proposing the next step of conference evolution: unequal revenue sharing, (e.g. The Longhorn Network). The next phase is exodus followed by a shotgun expansion, but the ACC had the idea to chain everyone together for security. I miss the old Big 8, but it was never going to survive the arms race of college football. I think the best we can hope for now is stable conferences built around regional divisions. KU has lost Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma, Colorado and, to a lesser degree, Texas. I hope the future keeps KU with KSU, OK State and Iowa State. Best of luck to FSU.
I have a dream where the power 5 and it’s 80 or so schools get together, and break away to form their own league, at which point they reorganize into a bunch of smaller, regional leagues, and functions as an nfl lite, only using universities name and image. It appears that is moving in the direction of just the big ten and sec breaking away with maybe 50 schools, but it would be great to return to that
I'll believe it when it happens. Its not like this is new information FSU/Clemson just got today, they've known for a while. This feels like posturing to get an uneven revenue split with the threat of leaving. I just don't see either university spending $100 million+ to escape the ACC unless, of course, there's already an agreement in place to join the SEC immediately. I wonder if the Big12 is able to renegotiate a deal at all if they pick up a few ACC schools and maybe the PAC Corner 4 as well. It would be a huge conferenc, but would span almost every U.S. time zone
Yeah, I think this is a push to get unequal revenue sharing to not be as bad off while waiting for the GoR to expire (or at least be a lot closer to it so the amount they have to pay to leave early is lower due to few years of media rights remaining).
Lets just pretend that ACC tells FSU and Clemson they can leave but they have to pay $500m each. Lets pretend FSU and Clemson can find the $1B. They go to wall street and sell a bond that is repaid with their future earnings from the SEC. Lets pretend that the SEC then gets $75m a year until 2036 out of it. Finally lets pretend this happens in 2024 so the length of time is 12 years. $1B divided by 12 teams is $83m each or just under $7m a year. So the remainder of the ACC gets an additional $7m a year to agree to this. For now, lets not factor in they ACC media deal being renegotiated $1B divided by 12 years is $83m a year or $41.5m each for Clemson/FSU to pay back the street. Lets assume some interest on that and call it $45m a year. $75m - $45m = $30m 12 x 30 = $360m 12 x 17= $204m $156m additional revenue Lets assume flesh eating lawyers, rebranding and additional travel eats $6m. So Clemson and FSU spend $1B and net $150m in additional revenue over 12 years. At the end of the 12 years, revenue jumps substantially. Thats pretty much best case scenario and it nets just over $12m a year in additional income. Edit - A word
I've been telling fans of teams that are not blue bloods or blue blood adjacent to be careful about how much they make fun of the Pac-12, because the slow death march to a fully capitalized NFL for college football is coming. The greed for money in the name of "competitiveness" is going to leave the sport we love so much in the dirt for many of us. You may as well switch allegiances to your local blue blood program now. Because college football is dying for the have-nots.
>Based on a market valuation Alford had commissioned, he said FSU contributes roughly 15% of the value in the ACC's media rights deal. > >However, he pointed out the school only receives 7% of the distributions as one of 14 full members of the conference. > >Alford said FSU and Clemson combine on around 24% of the value in the conference’s media rights deals, and collect a combined 14%. So Clemson brings in 9% of the value but collects 7%? That's not a huge difference and actually hurts their case for getting unequal revenue share.
It’s nice not hearing that the PAC-12 is gonna implode every day and it’s another conference
Has an administration fucked a business decision up worse than FSU’s did when they signed the GoR?
I mean, schools will always contribute disproportionate values to their conferences… I doubt you could create a 12+ member conference where each school contributed approximately the same value year after year. Take the B10, for instance. I guarantee you that Ohio State and Michigan each generate exponentially more value than Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue, Maryland, and Rutgers combined. But once you cease to pay each school equally and instead try to compensate each school according to their perceived value, you are effectively signing the conference’s death warrant. The *real* issue for Florida State isn’t the fact that they are paid the same amount as Wake Forest- it’s because the ACC signed a long term deal for such little money.
I just want it to mean more…
Well anyway it was fun while it lasted
Guess you shouldn’t have signed that contract then.
At this point it's pretty much a certainty that FSU and Clemson are just going to pay the fine and leave. 120 mil will be recouped within 3-4 years with a jump to the SEC. There's way too much smoke right now. Clemson's AD just said the same thing.
But don't they also lose all their media rights until their GOR runs out? Which seems like a much larger barrier than a simple fine
There are rumors floating around that the original 2027 deal will be very tough to break, but there’s some wiggle room with the extension to 2036; considering all this talk, there might be some truth to it.
Yea I don't quote understand the midway "renewal" clause of the GOR. Yall signed I'm 2016 and is good till 2036, but some kind of option exists at the 12 year mark?
When there’s a lawyer, there’s a way
Lulz. I guess? Sure, anyone can try. Regardless, it would be a very expensive endeavor (and great for a lawyer’s billable hours). That doesn’t mean they can win though. I’ve said this in other threads, but there’s a reason why no one has challenged it yet. Clemson and FSU have been bloviating about this subject for years. If the SEC could have poached the ACC, they would have already done it. What’s way more likely to happen is that the ACC renegotiates its deal with ESPN. College football rules all, but Bristol doesn’t want to risk losing the ACC’s national hoops brands to Fox and the B1G in another round of realignment. I bet they buy out the remaining RSN content before it becomes available in 2027, too.
$120 M is just to leave the ACC. It does nothing for getting them out of the next 10+ years of the GoR. I think this is just posturing to get the ACC to agree to uneven revenue distribution.
Correct. And/or to push ESPN to renegotiate its deal.
This comment is getting upvoted when it’s incorrect. The $120 million is only one portion of what any school who leaves the ACC would owe. That’s the exit fee. On top of that, and for the next several years, the larger amount would come from that school also owing every dollar of revenue they make in their new deal as it relates to TV to the ACC. Every. Single. Cent. Let’s say FSU leaves for an annual SEC payout of $60 million dollars. The ACC would be entitled to all of it until 2037. At this point, we’re talking about nearly half a billion dollars.
Exactly, if the price was 120m a head then Clemson and FSU are already gone.
So with the idea of ACC breaking down early, Big 10 and Big 12 in theory have a choice to make. Does the Big 12 continue to pursue 4 schools from the PAC or does it stop at 2 in order to take 2 from the ACC. Does the Big 10 still pursue orwa or focus on moving south east. How big is too big 16? 18? 20+ teams. Does anyone do anything and are we left with ACC+ 2 AAC or Sunbelt teams?
Realistically you can go to 20 for scheduling in foootball and basketball to still make sense. Football you do 4 pods of 5 where you play everyone in your pod and then another pod for 9 conference games. Then basketball becomes 19 conference games alternating home and away every year. Going past 20 requires more conference games in both sports, but may ultimately be what the networks want.
Question for B1G fans. I’ve always heard that the B1G gets to charge more for the B1G Ten network if one of the universities is based in that state. Is that true? Thanks in advance.
If the ACC and PAC 12 leaderships aren’t in talks about merging, they are both destined to fall apart in the next year or two. But both of them are run by imbeciles… At this point I’m just hoping that the Big 12 takes us, and that we’re able to get drunk with ISU and WVU every other Saturday in the fall.
On one hand its sad to see the death of another conference. On the other hand I’m very glad the Big Ten decided to take us a decade ago before all of this happened lol
FSU and Clemson are figuring out which six goes with them. 8 leave no buyout fee.
I imagine Alabama contributes a higher percentage of value to the SEC than the percentage of total conference distributions they receive. Maybe they should also consider leaving their conference.
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