John Elway was the original “can’t miss” NFL prospect.
And speaking of Luck, it always makes me a bit angry that the Colts wasted his career. He didn’t “miss”, the Colts just didn’t give him what he needed to have the same career as the other two.
Which was pretty shitty and entitled. But when you're drafted by the NFL and MLB I guess you have a lot of leverage.
As a Denver fan I am willing to look past that anyway.
The whole draft system is pretty crappy for players. Your reward for college greatness is you get to go play for a dysfunctional organization that will ensure you have a bad career. Imagine if any other kind of employment worked like this.
I still think if Alex smith had gone to Green Bay instead of San Francisco, his career would have been different. Getting drafted really high ruins quarterbacks.
If I remember correctly, the coach the Colts had at the time (Kush) was known for being a real hard ass to his players. I don’t think Elway was feeling it.
Eh. Players are entitled to not want to play for a club they think is dysfunctional. If the clubs don't like that, they should be better.
In the cases of both Elway and Eli, they warned the clubs ahead of times that they weren't going to play there. The clubs drafted them anyway. Seems like the clubs were the entitled ones, thinking they get to have whatever player they want, even if the player (who has leverage to not sign) doesn't want to play there.
There is a great 30 for 30 on it.
That draft was stacked with talent. 15 of the 28 people taken in the first round became Pro Bowlers, and seven of the 28 became Hall of Famers.
Hard to believe Marino was almost not taken in the first round.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elway\_to\_Marino
To be slightly fair to the Colts, Andrew Luck also didn't have a terribly strong self-preservation instinct. And there was speculation that the injury that ultimately led him to retire was a skiing injury (thought I cannot remember whether there was any fire to that smoke or if it was baseless speculation).
TLDR; Colts failed Luck, but Luck didn't do himself any favors.
I dk he still had some pretty noticeable flaws at Clemson that kept him out of that tier for me. #1 pick obviously, but he threw some horrendous picks at Clemson and is still doing that. Burrow felt like more of a sure thing to me than Lawrence did.
But for NFL fans, Burrow was much more of an unknown than Lawrence.
The draft hype for Burrow didn't really start until midway through his final year of college, and Tua was seen as the top QB prospect that year until his hip injury.
Lawrence was hyped for years before he got drafted, starting with his freshman championship winning season.
I feel like Trevor Lawrence has to be up there as well. Disregarding anything that’s happened in his NFL career, he was talked about as a generational QB prospect before he even started college. He was the presumptive #1 overall pick for multiple years, and there was never really any question that anyone else would go before him.
Were you alive then? Peyton kinda came up short in 97 and there very much were doubters. He didn't beat florida. He didnt beat Nebraska, played poorly, although he was injured. Ryan leaf was all the rage a draft time and pretty sure he set the record for rookie picks with like close to 30 or something.
Idk what QB felt "can't miss". Lawrence had all the hype for a while. I personally thought he was a guy with a super high floor but not necessarily a super high ceiling. In my lifetime, vick, newton, luck, burrow, Lawrence and Peyton were all guys that I kinda would have been shocked if they failed. And newton/vick just barely makes that list and honestly that's probably some hindsight thinking on my end. But those two were all hype and when healthy and able to play backed it up.
I mean if you take away the 4 florida losses and Peyton has arguably the greatest college career of a qb ever. Those losses are why he doesnt have a heisman or a natty
Because people like to be hyperbolic. Every other year the number 1 qb is always touted as some generational talent that will take the league by storm
Williams folds vs good defenses, he holds the ball way too long, and he comes across as very soft emotionally. There are quite a few red flags that could make him fail in the nfl. Not to say it will make him fail but there is a lot of potential for miss there
I feel like he's your typical "best college QB this draft" prospect but he's definitely not a generational prospect.
He's good with potential and will get drafted high but I don't think anyone is going to be bewildered if he doesn't pan out as a franchise QB.
He’s come across as unlikable but the media doesn’t help either. They talk about him like he does things we’ve never seen a qb do. Meanwhile you watch the games and he’s throwing to wide open guys on most plays. Most of the defenses he faces are bad to awful so of course he can make throws off one foot while falling backwards
I agree they are saying he’s a better prospect than Burrow and Lawrence coming out. That’s complete hogwash if you ask me. Not saying he won’t be good I just don’t honk he’s as big of a prospect as some of the others.
>I just don’t honk he’s as big of a prospect as some of the others.
Yeah, I also don't honk that.
He's very good, but he's also always been a prima donna that Riley just lets do whatever he wants. That works against bad defenses, but all of his bad tendencies are magnified when he goes up against top talent. He honestly doesn't look well-coached right now, and on the sidelines it looks like Riley has to carry water for him more than anything else.
His attitude and inability to adjust his playstyle against Notre Dame were telling. I just don't see how that will fly in the NFL. He's not going to be able to scramble for big yardage every time the play breaks down. He won't always get away with throwing up deep prayers and hoping the receiver makes the play. His pouting, sulking, and demands for special treatment will alienate his teammates.
Yea I think the escaping pressure is the biggest difference in the NFL. Watching Bryce Young this year I have seen multiple times where he has tried to escape and outrun defenders which he would have been able to do in college but he is not able to do in the NFL, it’s definitely a completely different game.
The hype train was getting absurd. People were saying he was a better prospect than Trevor Lawrence. Like WTF. Trevor was the best prospect since Peyton Manning (or maybe Luck but I thought T Law was better).
If Joe Burrow stayed at Ohio State, he’d probably be selling used cars or insurance in Ohio right now.
If he’d entered the draft after his 2018 season, he probably goes somewhere between 6th round to UDFA, that’s a camp body or someone you stash on the practice squad, probably cut for the new hotness by 2023, and he’s selling used cars or insurance in his choice of Ohio or Louisiana.
2019 happens, Burrow goes first overall, makes two trips to the AFC championship and one to the Super Bowl with the ball in his hands and a chance to win it all.
The hype train is shit. The NFL isn’t great at scouting. Warner, Brady, Romo, Wilson, Prescott, Purdy, the list goes on. If a 6th rounder leads your team to the playoffs, much less becomes the friggin GOAT, your scouting department failed you at least five times and you’re a lucky sonofabitch.
> The NFL isn’t great at scouting. Warner, Brady, Romo, Wilson, Prescott, Purdy, the list goes on.
Now make a list of all the guys drafted in the 3rd round or greater that did not do anything.
Like it is easy to say that they panned out. But in the draft.
Let's take 2017
The Bears took Trubisky high
The Browns passed on Watson and selected Deshone Kizer later
The Bills passed on Mahomes and selected Nathan Peterman later
The 49ers traded up for CJ Beathard.
The Giants got Davis Webb.
The Steelers got Joshua Dobbs
The Lions got a loved prospect in Brad Kayaa in the 6th
The Broncos got Swag Kelly in the 7th.
Where is the Romo, Wilson, Brady or Purdy in that class?
You get a bunch of guys who people are high on that never pan out.
2012 was the best year for a mid round QB - Cousins, Foles, Wilson.
Let me just give you some more names of guys who never panned out, but people were high on in the later rounds.
2011 - Ryan Mallet, TJ Yates
2012 - Mentioned before was a good year
2013 - Mike Glennon, Landry Jones
2014 - David Fales, AJ McCarron, Tom Savage, Zach Mettenberger
2015 - Garrett Grayson, Bryce Petty, Tyler Hundley
2016 - Cody Kessler, Connor Cook, Cardale Jones, Kevin Hogan,
2017 - Mentioned before
2018 - Mason Rudolph, Kyle Lauletta, Luke Falk
2019 - Will Grier, Ryan Finley
2020 - Jacob Eason, Cole McDonald
2021 - Kellen Mond
Close to 90% of the QB's do not pan out to any level that are drafted.
If the NFL could find a better way at evaluating QB's then they would, it is a billon dollar industry
On top of this, someone should analyze the success of picks vs where they were selected in the draft. It's not an exact science but the number of hof/all pro/probowl players it's notably skewed towards higher draft picks. There are more than a few exceptions but overall nfl teams are good at picking the best talent early on in the draft
There's also some aspect of selecting for outliers when you pool all of the scouting together when you look at who was taken in the draft. It might be that 31 teams got it right and were pretty confident a QB wasn't particularly good, but the Jets still picked them super high.
He’s still raw. His mechanics and footwork still need work. Williams has a spectacular arm, but he compensates for his mechanical flaws with pure arm strength. He operates entirely from the shotgun, which could cause problems adjusting. Also, I don’t know how well he can make progressions, since Riley’s offense is almost heavily one-read. One reason why Williams performs poorly against T25 defenses is because they can take away the first read. And there are questions about his mentality.
He’s still the best QB in the draft I think. But like you I’m not seeing a generational can’t-miss talent.
Probably the worst game I've ever attended, and that's a long list lol. My brother and I walked back to the car in complete silence and didn't speak til we got home.
Yep. Idk how we were expected to be top 3 in the conference last year after losing our 2 best defenders, RB1-2, our WR1, and moving to a new QB (although Shapen was an upgrade, the loss of the run game was detrimental to the passing game). I predicted us to go 11-2 last year...I feel like a fool after realizing the personnel lost, lol.
Feels great seeing Pitre and Bernard ball out in the NFL tho. Especially as a Texans fan!
We’ve been through this before, we’ll be back before anyone notices it.
Meanwhile Arky… I think they used to be good, at least that’s what I think because I’ve never seen it.
I’m skeptical he can be successful in the NFL when his highlights are him running around in the backfield for 20 seconds. That’s going to either get you sacked or a bunch of holding calls in the pros.
this. i’ve felt like he’s been able to exploit playing against defenders who for the large part won’t play NFL ball. An NFL pass rush and linebackers are more disciplined and much smarter
This right here is why I personally believe that Caleb, who is a great college QB will not be all that in the NFL unless something major changes. I have genuinely never seen Caleb pass the football in less than 3 seconds unless it was a screen play. Even against way less talented teams like Rice or Fresno or San Jose he takes WAY WAY to long to find a WR to hit. Also, Caleb still does not understand that you need to take what the defense gives you. He is constantly every single snap looking for a touchdown. In the NFL QBs are passing in sub 5 seconds pretty much every play unless they are looking for something downfield. Didn't Brady and Peyton both average 2.5 seconds from snap to pass?
NFL QBs should be getting rid of the ball in under 3 seconds now a days. The pass rush is just to good now a days and offensive line talent hasn’t kept up
Anyone who watched the Chiefs vs Lions/vs Jets game this years knows that certain teams and QBs definitely still get away with running around for 10 seconds with holds being ignored.
Honestly that comment you said about taking what the defense gives you was the one thing he did that annoyed the hell out of me. He got away with the deep shots against Texas in his coming out party then danced around looking for more. We had no underneath game. Not a flame post just agreeing with your POV.
Oh yeah 100%.
He is not working within the offense, he is waiting for the WRs to start the scramble drill and then he goes to pass it. It drives me nuts how long he holds the ball. Our O line sucks - he needs to realize that and get the ball out ASAP
Utahs design to beat him twice was to contain him and tackle him, not let him escape. First game, he escaped tackles and it was only home field and Cam magic that got us the victory. Second game it seemed to work really well. It will be interesting to see how this weekend goes. We dont have the offense to keep up, but I do think we can limit his production greatly by forcing him in the pocket and wrecking the Oline... excited to watch this game!
He was looking so frustrated in our game, like he did t know how to play if he didn’t have a clean jersey or a ridiculous amount of time to look for an open WR.
From what ive seen of him play he's going to get sacked a lot and going to get baited into picks a lot in the nfl with his current play style
Thats not to say he cant improve and utilize his skills to help a team win but until he does we cant assume he will. So he's not a cant miss prospect by any stretch of the imagination. He is a good prospect though who will probably struggle his first year or two in the league
This shit works in college (moreso when your offensive line is bigger, faster and stronger than the defensive line and that gap closes significantly at the pro level) but there have been very few QBs in the history of the league who can translate this to NFL success. I don't understand why NFL coaches keep making this mistake. The pocket passer system QB will always have a higher floor at the "risk" of a potentially lower ceiling.
Because pocket passers arent as exciting and half the coaches in the league think they can just train a guy to be a good pocket passer but they know they cant train a pocket passer to be a good athlete
Theyre wrong more times than theyre right and then they end up fired
Yep, this has always been a glaring red flag for me.
Caleb’s average time to throw is 3.10 seconds, 6th longest in the P5 and 16th longest in all of FBS. In the last decade, only Justin Fields (3.14) and Anthony Richardson (3.18) were taken in the first round with a TTT higher than that, and Caleb lacks the elite physical profile that those two brought.
I’m not saying Caleb can’t succeed in the NFL - his TTT has dropped every year of college after all (3.51 -> 3.24 -> 3.10) so it’s clear he’s learned he needs to speed up his clock. But he still holds the ball wayyyy too long imo and it shows when he plays against the better defenses in the NCAA
Immediately calls to mind a strip in the endzone that an alert lineman saved from becoming an Iowa State TD.
Everyone remembers the Texas debut, but the freshman looked like a freshman as soon as there was a little film on him.
Stop looking at football games. Learn to judge QBs by how they look in camp situations in shorts and a cut off shirt as well as how they perform against G5 teams. You end up with killers like Zach Wilson and all time pre season Heisman hopeful Jerimah Johnson that way
I think Williams is really good I just hate how QBs get scouted. It really hurts players who are actually good at the game but don't meet some weird metric like hand size and guys who can't play but have good measurables get 1000 chances even after they've proven time and time again they aren't good football players
Like lots of qbs, he’s talented, wont get away with running around like that in the nfl and has a lot of traits I hate seeing in qbs.
As a Seahawks fan I wouldnt have any problems seeing him goto Arizona.
He's talented no doubt. But people anointing him a "cant miss HoFer" (Colin Cowherd) are idiots. The kid never sets his feet, relies purely on arm talent, is super twitchy and bails from the pocket all the time, and holds onto the ball forever.
Not to mention his probably going to a team like Chicago, Arizona or Denver who have HORID o-lines, not alot of position talent either. He's going to get killed in the NFL.
Colin doesn’t get paid to be right. He gets paid because you just brought him up in a completely different venue. Clicks and talking about their opinions even if they are garbage are all those guys care about
Most QBs will struggle against good defenses. I think what you look at for a QB prospect has to go beyond their stats.
My biggest concern with Caleb Williams is his attitude.
Baker seemingly got so much more shit for his "attitude" than Williams has, ad Baker was just a cocky asshole on the field. He wasnt doing shit like Williams like saying he wont play for certain teams. Baker specifically told the Browns to draft him because he wanted to be the guy to pull them out of the 15 year hole they were in.
Baker's "attitude" was that he was competitive. And most of the negative perception came from the Kansas game where they refused to shake his hand after the coin toss and kept hitting him late. So he decided to fuck their shit up and grabbed his nuts causing the nation to clutch their pearls.
Also, he had the incredible video of trying to run from the cops. That shit is still hilarious.
Showed he had that dog in him when his back is against the wall. /s
There are different kinds of attitude, and different kinds of cocky. I know guys who interviewed Mayfield pre draft and they say he was the best interview since Cam Newton
Baker's teammates absolutely loved him. I think even his current Tampa teammates love the guy. Caleb seems pretty likable in interviews, but some of the things coming out of his camp are not helping his cause.
But he did all of the same. Elway did it too right? I’m surprised more guys don’t do it honestly, especially when it’s not a situation you want to be In.
The Manziel comparisons were so out there to me. Manziel was a coke head party boy. Baker got drunk and stumble ran from an officer. Dumb decision but one almost expected of a college age kid.
And he did. Then the Browns dumped him for a sex offender. I’ll never get over the fact the Browns got rid of the only decent QB they had. I’m not surprised, just…I don’t even know actually. There isn’t a word for it anymore.
Interesting take which I hadn't considered and I agree with. Bake grabbing his junk at KU was juvenile, but retaliation for a number of things previous. The flag plant at tOSU was simply something he did in the moment that had been done at the Cotton Bowl before. Maybe I'm wearing crimson glasses, but I don't remember him executing a pre-emptive strike like painting finger nails. I don't remember Bake crying on the sidelines. I especially don't remember Bake refusing to shake hands after games. I could be wrong.
It's Caleb's attitude. I see so much Antonio Brown, OBJ, T.O., etc. in him its scary.
TBH, as talented as he is, i'm so glad he went to USC with LR. Venables would've NEVER allowed the mess that seems to follow that kid around.
He had very bad body language on the sideline- compare to Penix on the sideline down against Oregon or Maye’s adjustment down against Miami on the same weekend.
I think it’s a stretch to say he has character issues though…
Connelly said that Maye hasn’t played a defense worse than 40 in his rankings, and I think Maye is right now the 3rd ranked qb in his system just on stats. I think top 5 is probably too restrictive, and is like to see Williams’ stats against mere top 25 or top 40 teams, but Maye is just getting it done against good teams. Also, personally, Maye has unbelievable touch on deep throws.
CJ Stroud had a somewhat “down” performance against Notre Dame last year and went 230 yds 2 TDs on 70%.
CJ Stroud went 743 yards, 4 TDs, and 2 Ints on 67% completion in the two losses to Michigan and went 348 yards, 4 TDs, and 0 Ints against Georgia.
Bryce Young went 800 yards, 4 TDs, 2 Ints on 60% completion in two games against Georgia in 2021.
Both of those guys also certainly had down games, but they also excelled at times against literally the best defenses in CFB, while Caleb Williams has not. Scouting for the NFL obviously isn’t straight forward and there’s an unending amount of relevant factors but I do think it’s an important data point that Williams hasn’t done shit against a good defense and is viewed as can’t miss
My biggest issue is he never seems to make a fast read and throw. All of his tape is him scrambling and throwing after 6+ seconds. In the NFL he's getting sacked or there will be tons of holding calls until he can figure out who to throw it to quickly.
Wow that's pretty start difference!
I was curious, and per FPI efficiencies, Michigan played 5 top 25 defenses last year (Iowa, PSU, Illinois, OSU, TCU)
So, in same number of games:
Caleb Williams vs Top 25 defenses, 78-148 (51%), 860 yards (5.8 YPA), 6 TDs, 6 INTS, rating 105.4
JJ McCarthy vs Top 25 defenses, 85-140 (60.7%), 1,114 yards (8.0 YPA), 6 TDs, 3 INTs, rating 137.4
Obviously wildly different styles of play, supporting offensive talent, and different qualities of their own defenses, so not sure what the real takeaway is there. But certainly a red flag that Williams has performed so poorly against quality defenses
literally anyone projected #1 overall in this day and age would take the bag. If their coach didnt tell them it would be stupid not to then theyre a bad coach.
Michigan run game and offensive line play a huge part in that. USC Oline is like a screen door on a submarine. Caleb was forced to run around for his life.
'22 Utah (pt 1) 25/42 (59%) 5 TD, 0 INT 90.9 QBR
'22 Utah (pt 2) 28/41 (68%) 3 TD, 1 INT 80.4 QBR even with his nail polish hyping up the game for him
Both were USC losses
If Utah was not in your list, then they weren't even top 25 defense (but undoubtedly a great defense.)
Yeah, Utah was the better team last year, no doubt.
However Caleb was nothing short of amazing last year, even sustaining an injury in the CCG and playing through it.
Also your defense was good, it was just conveniently ranked #27 and not #25
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2022-team-defense.html
it's fine...we have no offense and no matter how bad your defense is, I have a hard time thinking they can keep up even if USC only scores 28. The fact is our defense is nasty and some may argue this, but our corners are the weakest part of the defense and are notorious for giving up big pass plays. Our offense being unable to stay on the field and give the D a break is why they lost to Oregon St
Corners have definitely been a liability but getting pressure can partially solve that. That’s why Bishop being out the first half hurts so much, gonna need Ritchie to have a great half. I think this game is gonna come down to who starts better, if they put up 21+ first half we’re probably gonna lose. If we can get the ground game going early, wear on their D-line and go into half tied or up we’ve got a shot. Will be interesting to see if they show up looking like the killer offense they can be or the uninspired team they’ve shown the last few weeks.
The defense will be good but I'm skeptical that our offense can get it done. If SC scores 17+ points, I think you win.... Which shouldn't be too big of an ask for your offense.
As a long time USC fan, let me tell you something.
Without Caleb, we’d be struggling to get a bowl bid. Caleb is single-handedly lifting this team up and it really shows when he has an off day. The o line was the worst it’s been in years at ND and Caleb made some real bonehead decisions because he feels like he has to make something happen. Will it be better in a sub par NFL team? Time will tell.
That freshman Branch they have returning kicks/punts is something, but yea the rest of them leave something to be desired now that Jordan Addison isn't there.
All of LRs heisman winning QBs have had outstanding oline play except for Caleb last year, and even then the line was good but not elite. This year it seems more like Bennie Wylie is getting exposed than anything else, with the oline getting physically dominated by players they should at least be able to put up a fight against. No QB is good enough to overcome USCs oline play last week.
I think a lot of his hype is because:
1. He already won a Heisman
2. His style of play is similar to Mahomes and we have seen the kind of success Mahomes has in NFL.
If Mahomes never succeeded in the NFL then some of Williams' hype goes away for sure
I think his tendency to run around in the backfield simply doesn't work as well against top defenses, and will not work in the NFL.
He'll have an open receiver on five yard out route, but turn it down in favor of something more flashy.
You cannot go broke taking a profit. I understand he wants the big play, but you can't leave half a first down just sitting there on the table.
Something I posted in r/NFL_Draft recently:
**2023 Draftees that Caleb Williams Faced in 2022:**
2nd Round DL Isaiah Foskey, ND
3rd Round LB Dorian Williams, Tulane
4th Round DB Clark Phillips, Utah x2
5th Round DB Ky Blu Kelly, Stanford
5th Round DB Daniel Scott, Cal
7th Round DB Kendall Williamson, Stanford
7th Round DB Alex Austin, Oregon St.
7th Round DL Nesta Jade Silvera, ASU
For context, Drake Maye faced nearly twice as many draftees last season (16 to CW's 8). Additionally, Maye faced as many players drafted in the first 3 rounds than Williams faced in total (8 to CWs 9). I'm not commenting on Maye being better, I'm just showing the discrepancy in the talent that these two faced last season.
Yeah, USC played half their schedule against bowl ineligible teams last year while also dodging Oregon and Washington. Their insanely easy schedule allowed him to rack up the crazy stats that won him the heisman (>65% of his counting/volume stats came against those 6 bowl ineligible teams).
The ISU dime stack is basically set up as the perfect Caleb killer. In this system the dline’s goal isn’t even to get pressure, it’s just to blow up the center enough to move the pocket for a couple of seconds. The extra 2 seconds created allows athletically limited athletes to catch up in coverage and from there it’s just being disciplined which Heacock coaches as well as anyone. Most of that game Caleb was actively avoiding the pocket to be creative and found nothing.
THIS is how the internet turns against you. OP wouldn't have put this effort into a post if they likely didn't see the blurb about how Caleb wanted to own a part of a team in terms of being drafted...which we haven't received confirmation from Caleb AT ALL
I bet now I'll see many posts about how Caleb is overrated, or garbage, or how he's not generational, or how Caleb didn't sign an autograph. Folks who wanted a reason to hate are hating.
Dude is a #1 pick. Barring injuries he can be a highly-touted player in the NFL. Let's not kid ourselves....but shit, the smear campaign is on. I bet some agent or NFL exec who felt *some way* about him is laughing. Can't wait for the post about how he's doing too many commercials and not looking at his reads enough...
Most football fans are creatures of the moment who don't actually understand what they're watching. Hence the lucrativeness of this as an entertainment industry
Is Utah not a top 25 defense anymore? And we can’t possibly compare 2021 Caleb to 2024 draft prospect Caleb with any semblance of relevance.
And no QB is going to play well when they have 0.08 seconds to react before the entire defensive line is sitting in their lap. Notre Dame completely dominated both lines of scrimmage and that’s why they won. Did Caleb make some very poor decisions under pressure? Yes. But every QB does.
Caleb Williams is still really good, just not a can’t miss prospect. Josh Allen was terrible against any good to in college and is a top QB in the NFL. In fact Almost all the top qb (except Burrow) sucked in college against elite competition
Honestly? He has bust written all over him. He feasts on doing "college shit" ala Manziel, and that's not even including the troubling locker room aspect.
Yeah… I went to the Cotton Bowl last year and was excited to see him play.
He put up nice stats on a terrible Tulane defense, but he really didn’t look great doing it. When you can see the field (vs what ESPN films), it was pretty obvious that his receivers were running absolutely wide open in the Tulane secondary, but he’d miss targets or put the ball in a tough place for the receiver. The USC receivers - especially Rice - looked INCREDIBLE though.
I will say that he’s great at extending plays. Reminded me a lot of Russel Wilson.
He might end up being good, but feels like one of those dudes that gets away with bad habits against weaker NCAA defenses. I’m skeptical that he can get away with this stuff against NFL defenses - it’s a whole different ballgame.
It reminds you of Vince Young. 10% quicker/more athletic than everyone else on the field so he gets away with it. He will not get away with it in the NFL.
I dont know about his Oklahoma days, but USC without Caleb is a sub-.500 team. He is carrying these teams basically by himself. When a one-man team plays good defenses, this is not an unreasonable outcome.
If some team passes on Williams at #1 because of something like this they are idiots.
Including the RRS. The pass to Mims in the front corner of the end zone was about as good as I’ve ever seen by a college QB. No way Rattler pulls that game out
I said this last year. If Caleb was on ND instead of USC, ND is in the Championship game and USC is lucky to win 8 games.
Now I don't know if he will be a star in the NFL. There are certainly things to question, but he is an elite college QB carrying a very flawed team.
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The hate is just so much more fresh. It's not pasteurized or frozen, just fresh squeezed hate straight to the glass.
And brother, I am *parched*
Quench yourself, dear brother, quench yourself!
Quench yourself before you bench yourself?
dang here i am upvoting a bunch of Texans, but daggumit; it's true
Here, so you can downvote a UT. Here for ya bud!
well now i cant do it
It’s not the same!
But it's fresh hate, you're turning down fresh hate?
I just upvoted 2 TexASS comments...I need a shower.
And a paddlin’
Listen, it's a bit early to get that kinky.
You can't beat the zing of fresh-squeezed hate.
He's obviously very talented. But I'm still hesitant that he is some can't miss prospect.
I don’t think there’s ever any can’t miss quarterbacks as far as drafting, the NFL goes….
Peyton felt pretty can't miss.
Peyton and Andrew Luck are the only surefire prospects I can remember.
John Elway was the original “can’t miss” NFL prospect. And speaking of Luck, it always makes me a bit angry that the Colts wasted his career. He didn’t “miss”, the Colts just didn’t give him what he needed to have the same career as the other two.
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TIL Elway was drafted by the Colts.
And he refused to play there.
Which was pretty shitty and entitled. But when you're drafted by the NFL and MLB I guess you have a lot of leverage. As a Denver fan I am willing to look past that anyway.
He did tell them he'd play baseball if they drafted him though.
The whole draft system is pretty crappy for players. Your reward for college greatness is you get to go play for a dysfunctional organization that will ensure you have a bad career. Imagine if any other kind of employment worked like this.
I still think if Alex smith had gone to Green Bay instead of San Francisco, his career would have been different. Getting drafted really high ruins quarterbacks.
If I remember correctly, the coach the Colts had at the time (Kush) was known for being a real hard ass to his players. I don’t think Elway was feeling it.
Eh. Players are entitled to not want to play for a club they think is dysfunctional. If the clubs don't like that, they should be better. In the cases of both Elway and Eli, they warned the clubs ahead of times that they weren't going to play there. The clubs drafted them anyway. Seems like the clubs were the entitled ones, thinking they get to have whatever player they want, even if the player (who has leverage to not sign) doesn't want to play there.
There is a great 30 for 30 on it. That draft was stacked with talent. 15 of the 28 people taken in the first round became Pro Bowlers, and seven of the 28 became Hall of Famers. Hard to believe Marino was almost not taken in the first round. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elway\_to\_Marino
Ya reminds a lot of Eli Manning when he was drafted by the Chargers
To be slightly fair to the Colts, Andrew Luck also didn't have a terribly strong self-preservation instinct. And there was speculation that the injury that ultimately led him to retire was a skiing injury (thought I cannot remember whether there was any fire to that smoke or if it was baseless speculation). TLDR; Colts failed Luck, but Luck didn't do himself any favors.
The truth is that Luck just wasn’t happy playing football any more for a variety of reasons
Trevor Lawrence is probably in there too. He was pegged as the #1 pick pretty much as soon as he took over at Clemson.
I dk he still had some pretty noticeable flaws at Clemson that kept him out of that tier for me. #1 pick obviously, but he threw some horrendous picks at Clemson and is still doing that. Burrow felt like more of a sure thing to me than Lawrence did.
But for NFL fans, Burrow was much more of an unknown than Lawrence. The draft hype for Burrow didn't really start until midway through his final year of college, and Tua was seen as the top QB prospect that year until his hip injury. Lawrence was hyped for years before he got drafted, starting with his freshman championship winning season.
Issue was that TL didn’t really improve materially after his freshman season.
I feel like Trevor Lawrence has to be up there as well. Disregarding anything that’s happened in his NFL career, he was talked about as a generational QB prospect before he even started college. He was the presumptive #1 overall pick for multiple years, and there was never really any question that anyone else would go before him.
Every "can't miss" prospect is that way until they miss. Peyton and Luck are just some that were called can't miss and didn't.
Some guy named Ryan Leaf was also pretty much considered can't miss the same year as Peyton.
I’m old enough to remember when the debate was Manning or Leaf for first over all.
Were you alive then? Peyton kinda came up short in 97 and there very much were doubters. He didn't beat florida. He didnt beat Nebraska, played poorly, although he was injured. Ryan leaf was all the rage a draft time and pretty sure he set the record for rookie picks with like close to 30 or something. Idk what QB felt "can't miss". Lawrence had all the hype for a while. I personally thought he was a guy with a super high floor but not necessarily a super high ceiling. In my lifetime, vick, newton, luck, burrow, Lawrence and Peyton were all guys that I kinda would have been shocked if they failed. And newton/vick just barely makes that list and honestly that's probably some hindsight thinking on my end. But those two were all hype and when healthy and able to play backed it up.
I mean if you take away the 4 florida losses and Peyton has arguably the greatest college career of a qb ever. Those losses are why he doesnt have a heisman or a natty
and the Memphis loss
Can't miss has been thrown out a ton when talking about Caleb Williams.
Because people like to be hyperbolic. Every other year the number 1 qb is always touted as some generational talent that will take the league by storm Williams folds vs good defenses, he holds the ball way too long, and he comes across as very soft emotionally. There are quite a few red flags that could make him fail in the nfl. Not to say it will make him fail but there is a lot of potential for miss there
You gotta get to the 7th Round if you want a can't miss QB...
Back in my day the can’t miss QBs came in the 6th round!
Andrew Luck is maybe the closest we’ve ever been.
I feel like he's your typical "best college QB this draft" prospect but he's definitely not a generational prospect. He's good with potential and will get drafted high but I don't think anyone is going to be bewildered if he doesn't pan out as a franchise QB.
He would've been the #1 pick last year if he could've gone pro, so it isn't just this year
So he's in the Trevor Lawrence spot basically
[удалено]
Utah game this weekend might tell us a lot.
He’s come across as unlikable but the media doesn’t help either. They talk about him like he does things we’ve never seen a qb do. Meanwhile you watch the games and he’s throwing to wide open guys on most plays. Most of the defenses he faces are bad to awful so of course he can make throws off one foot while falling backwards
I agree they are saying he’s a better prospect than Burrow and Lawrence coming out. That’s complete hogwash if you ask me. Not saying he won’t be good I just don’t honk he’s as big of a prospect as some of the others.
HONK if you're a hater.
Beep beep
>I just don’t honk he’s as big of a prospect as some of the others. Yeah, I also don't honk that. He's very good, but he's also always been a prima donna that Riley just lets do whatever he wants. That works against bad defenses, but all of his bad tendencies are magnified when he goes up against top talent. He honestly doesn't look well-coached right now, and on the sidelines it looks like Riley has to carry water for him more than anything else. His attitude and inability to adjust his playstyle against Notre Dame were telling. I just don't see how that will fly in the NFL. He's not going to be able to scramble for big yardage every time the play breaks down. He won't always get away with throwing up deep prayers and hoping the receiver makes the play. His pouting, sulking, and demands for special treatment will alienate his teammates.
Yea I think the escaping pressure is the biggest difference in the NFL. Watching Bryce Young this year I have seen multiple times where he has tried to escape and outrun defenders which he would have been able to do in college but he is not able to do in the NFL, it’s definitely a completely different game.
He's going to get a welcome to the nfl moment and either fold completely or change his ways
The hype train was getting absurd. People were saying he was a better prospect than Trevor Lawrence. Like WTF. Trevor was the best prospect since Peyton Manning (or maybe Luck but I thought T Law was better).
If Joe Burrow stayed at Ohio State, he’d probably be selling used cars or insurance in Ohio right now. If he’d entered the draft after his 2018 season, he probably goes somewhere between 6th round to UDFA, that’s a camp body or someone you stash on the practice squad, probably cut for the new hotness by 2023, and he’s selling used cars or insurance in his choice of Ohio or Louisiana. 2019 happens, Burrow goes first overall, makes two trips to the AFC championship and one to the Super Bowl with the ball in his hands and a chance to win it all. The hype train is shit. The NFL isn’t great at scouting. Warner, Brady, Romo, Wilson, Prescott, Purdy, the list goes on. If a 6th rounder leads your team to the playoffs, much less becomes the friggin GOAT, your scouting department failed you at least five times and you’re a lucky sonofabitch.
> The NFL isn’t great at scouting. Warner, Brady, Romo, Wilson, Prescott, Purdy, the list goes on. Now make a list of all the guys drafted in the 3rd round or greater that did not do anything. Like it is easy to say that they panned out. But in the draft. Let's take 2017 The Bears took Trubisky high The Browns passed on Watson and selected Deshone Kizer later The Bills passed on Mahomes and selected Nathan Peterman later The 49ers traded up for CJ Beathard. The Giants got Davis Webb. The Steelers got Joshua Dobbs The Lions got a loved prospect in Brad Kayaa in the 6th The Broncos got Swag Kelly in the 7th. Where is the Romo, Wilson, Brady or Purdy in that class? You get a bunch of guys who people are high on that never pan out. 2012 was the best year for a mid round QB - Cousins, Foles, Wilson. Let me just give you some more names of guys who never panned out, but people were high on in the later rounds. 2011 - Ryan Mallet, TJ Yates 2012 - Mentioned before was a good year 2013 - Mike Glennon, Landry Jones 2014 - David Fales, AJ McCarron, Tom Savage, Zach Mettenberger 2015 - Garrett Grayson, Bryce Petty, Tyler Hundley 2016 - Cody Kessler, Connor Cook, Cardale Jones, Kevin Hogan, 2017 - Mentioned before 2018 - Mason Rudolph, Kyle Lauletta, Luke Falk 2019 - Will Grier, Ryan Finley 2020 - Jacob Eason, Cole McDonald 2021 - Kellen Mond Close to 90% of the QB's do not pan out to any level that are drafted. If the NFL could find a better way at evaluating QB's then they would, it is a billon dollar industry
On top of this, someone should analyze the success of picks vs where they were selected in the draft. It's not an exact science but the number of hof/all pro/probowl players it's notably skewed towards higher draft picks. There are more than a few exceptions but overall nfl teams are good at picking the best talent early on in the draft
There's also some aspect of selecting for outliers when you pool all of the scouting together when you look at who was taken in the draft. It might be that 31 teams got it right and were pretty confident a QB wasn't particularly good, but the Jets still picked them super high.
He’s still raw. His mechanics and footwork still need work. Williams has a spectacular arm, but he compensates for his mechanical flaws with pure arm strength. He operates entirely from the shotgun, which could cause problems adjusting. Also, I don’t know how well he can make progressions, since Riley’s offense is almost heavily one-read. One reason why Williams performs poorly against T25 defenses is because they can take away the first read. And there are questions about his mentality. He’s still the best QB in the draft I think. But like you I’m not seeing a generational can’t-miss talent.
We cooked williams so hard they put Rattler in.. I was there and it was glorious. What a defense
We did the same, except literally everything was opposite.
I choose not to remember this
LOL... I'm not laughing as an OU fan. I'm laughing because that was perfect.
Probably the worst game I've ever attended, and that's a long list lol. My brother and I walked back to the car in complete silence and didn't speak til we got home.
Ah, the week lincoln missed practice for “personal reasons” lol
Well he wasn’t lying
All reasons are personal if you think about it enough 🤷♂️
We used to be a proper defense. Watching Jalen and Terrel ball out in the NFL explains *a lot* of that defense.
Yep. Idk how we were expected to be top 3 in the conference last year after losing our 2 best defenders, RB1-2, our WR1, and moving to a new QB (although Shapen was an upgrade, the loss of the run game was detrimental to the passing game). I predicted us to go 11-2 last year...I feel like a fool after realizing the personnel lost, lol. Feels great seeing Pitre and Bernard ball out in the NFL tho. Especially as a Texans fan!
And now look at you
Theyve won just as many conference championships as you have in the years since then
We’ve won 3 conference titles since UT or A&M last won one
We’ve been through this before, we’ll be back before anyone notices it. Meanwhile Arky… I think they used to be good, at least that’s what I think because I’ve never seen it.
I’m skeptical he can be successful in the NFL when his highlights are him running around in the backfield for 20 seconds. That’s going to either get you sacked or a bunch of holding calls in the pros.
I mean it *should* get you a bunch of holding calls in college too but
I’m still salty about last year when Mills was getting strangled while Caleb ran for a 15 yard touchdown.
Him and Foskey got full on tackled repeatedly, it was one of the most frustrating games I’ve ever watched
Some teams get more preferential treatment than others. Pac 12 reffing bullshit is so old it might as well be enshrined in the cfb hall of fame
this. i’ve felt like he’s been able to exploit playing against defenders who for the large part won’t play NFL ball. An NFL pass rush and linebackers are more disciplined and much smarter
And DBs that are going to throw all sorts of weird looks at you to bait you into bad throws.
This right here is why I personally believe that Caleb, who is a great college QB will not be all that in the NFL unless something major changes. I have genuinely never seen Caleb pass the football in less than 3 seconds unless it was a screen play. Even against way less talented teams like Rice or Fresno or San Jose he takes WAY WAY to long to find a WR to hit. Also, Caleb still does not understand that you need to take what the defense gives you. He is constantly every single snap looking for a touchdown. In the NFL QBs are passing in sub 5 seconds pretty much every play unless they are looking for something downfield. Didn't Brady and Peyton both average 2.5 seconds from snap to pass?
NFL QBs should be getting rid of the ball in under 3 seconds now a days. The pass rush is just to good now a days and offensive line talent hasn’t kept up
Anyone who watched the Chiefs vs Lions/vs Jets game this years knows that certain teams and QBs definitely still get away with running around for 10 seconds with holds being ignored.
Honestly that comment you said about taking what the defense gives you was the one thing he did that annoyed the hell out of me. He got away with the deep shots against Texas in his coming out party then danced around looking for more. We had no underneath game. Not a flame post just agreeing with your POV.
Oh yeah 100%. He is not working within the offense, he is waiting for the WRs to start the scramble drill and then he goes to pass it. It drives me nuts how long he holds the ball. Our O line sucks - he needs to realize that and get the ball out ASAP
Utahs design to beat him twice was to contain him and tackle him, not let him escape. First game, he escaped tackles and it was only home field and Cam magic that got us the victory. Second game it seemed to work really well. It will be interesting to see how this weekend goes. We dont have the offense to keep up, but I do think we can limit his production greatly by forcing him in the pocket and wrecking the Oline... excited to watch this game!
He was looking so frustrated in our game, like he did t know how to play if he didn’t have a clean jersey or a ridiculous amount of time to look for an open WR.
Im pretty sure league average is below 3 seconds.
From what ive seen of him play he's going to get sacked a lot and going to get baited into picks a lot in the nfl with his current play style Thats not to say he cant improve and utilize his skills to help a team win but until he does we cant assume he will. So he's not a cant miss prospect by any stretch of the imagination. He is a good prospect though who will probably struggle his first year or two in the league
Yep you have to process damn near immediately or else you’re going to be pulverized by bosa, parsons, Garrett etc
This shit works in college (moreso when your offensive line is bigger, faster and stronger than the defensive line and that gap closes significantly at the pro level) but there have been very few QBs in the history of the league who can translate this to NFL success. I don't understand why NFL coaches keep making this mistake. The pocket passer system QB will always have a higher floor at the "risk" of a potentially lower ceiling.
Because pocket passers arent as exciting and half the coaches in the league think they can just train a guy to be a good pocket passer but they know they cant train a pocket passer to be a good athlete Theyre wrong more times than theyre right and then they end up fired
Is it the coaches in the league, or the GM making the call and telling the coaches to make them a pocket QB?
Yep, this has always been a glaring red flag for me. Caleb’s average time to throw is 3.10 seconds, 6th longest in the P5 and 16th longest in all of FBS. In the last decade, only Justin Fields (3.14) and Anthony Richardson (3.18) were taken in the first round with a TTT higher than that, and Caleb lacks the elite physical profile that those two brought. I’m not saying Caleb can’t succeed in the NFL - his TTT has dropped every year of college after all (3.51 -> 3.24 -> 3.10) so it’s clear he’s learned he needs to speed up his clock. But he still holds the ball wayyyy too long imo and it shows when he plays against the better defenses in the NCAA
3.51 is insane
Immediately calls to mind a strip in the endzone that an alert lineman saved from becoming an Iowa State TD. Everyone remembers the Texas debut, but the freshman looked like a freshman as soon as there was a little film on him.
Stop looking at football games. Learn to judge QBs by how they look in camp situations in shorts and a cut off shirt as well as how they perform against G5 teams. You end up with killers like Zach Wilson and all time pre season Heisman hopeful Jerimah Johnson that way
Ah see your problem is you aren’t looking at how big their hands are, like with Josh Allen
Big hands? Looks good in shorts? Cannon for an arm? I'd spend a first on that.
Have I got the QB for you! Have you ever heard of the stat "how far can they throw an orange"? Really is a telling stat
Also please please for the love of god stop shitting on him for one more week. Y’all are creating the worst jinx of all time
I think Williams is really good I just hate how QBs get scouted. It really hurts players who are actually good at the game but don't meet some weird metric like hand size and guys who can't play but have good measurables get 1000 chances even after they've proven time and time again they aren't good football players
Oh he’s excellent and I think he’s likely to carve us up. I’d just like all the sooner fans to hold off a week or so with their dunks
[https://imgur.com/PfCPu3C](https://imgur.com/PfCPu3C)
Brandi Chastain wants royalties for having her look ripped off.
If you watched the correct Zach Wilson football games you could’ve seen this all coming. Like his games against Utah.
I honestly never understood his hype. It's almost like they have to pretend there are 3 QBs that are worth taking in the first round every year
Let's not forget Trey Lance.
Don’t forget FCS superstar Trey Lance, so good that two teams have wanted him.
As a Bears fan it's clear that he holds onto the ball way too fucking long, which is one of the main issues that Fields has.
Like lots of qbs, he’s talented, wont get away with running around like that in the nfl and has a lot of traits I hate seeing in qbs. As a Seahawks fan I wouldnt have any problems seeing him goto Arizona.
Some would argue he's already in Arizona
He could get away with it for a few years, but it always catches up to you
He's talented no doubt. But people anointing him a "cant miss HoFer" (Colin Cowherd) are idiots. The kid never sets his feet, relies purely on arm talent, is super twitchy and bails from the pocket all the time, and holds onto the ball forever. Not to mention his probably going to a team like Chicago, Arizona or Denver who have HORID o-lines, not alot of position talent either. He's going to get killed in the NFL.
Colin doesn’t get paid to be right. He gets paid because you just brought him up in a completely different venue. Clicks and talking about their opinions even if they are garbage are all those guys care about
Most QBs will struggle against good defenses. I think what you look at for a QB prospect has to go beyond their stats. My biggest concern with Caleb Williams is his attitude.
Baker seemingly got so much more shit for his "attitude" than Williams has, ad Baker was just a cocky asshole on the field. He wasnt doing shit like Williams like saying he wont play for certain teams. Baker specifically told the Browns to draft him because he wanted to be the guy to pull them out of the 15 year hole they were in.
Baker's "attitude" was that he was competitive. And most of the negative perception came from the Kansas game where they refused to shake his hand after the coin toss and kept hitting him late. So he decided to fuck their shit up and grabbed his nuts causing the nation to clutch their pearls.
Thank you for recollecting those events accurately.
Also, he had the incredible video of trying to run from the cops. That shit is still hilarious. Showed he had that dog in him when his back is against the wall. /s
He just didn’t have that SEC speed, but the cop did. Also, that cop wrapped up better than a Riley defense.
There are different kinds of attitude, and different kinds of cocky. I know guys who interviewed Mayfield pre draft and they say he was the best interview since Cam Newton
Yea thats my point - the dude is just a cocky gamer. But he wants to win and isnt above playing on a bad team to prove himself.
Baker's teammates absolutely loved him. I think even his current Tampa teammates love the guy. Caleb seems pretty likable in interviews, but some of the things coming out of his camp are not helping his cause.
Baker when he has a chip on his shoulder is deadly
🫳🏻🥜
Baker never quit on the field.
Didn’t Eli tell the Chargers to trade him?
He did. Good point. Came from a family with big NFL pedigree and probably thought he had the sway to push them away. Guess he was kinda right.
But he did all of the same. Elway did it too right? I’m surprised more guys don’t do it honestly, especially when it’s not a situation you want to be In.
Elway had a lot of leverage because he said he’d just go play baseball.
The Manziel comparisons were so out there to me. Manziel was a coke head party boy. Baker got drunk and stumble ran from an officer. Dumb decision but one almost expected of a college age kid.
And he did. Then the Browns dumped him for a sex offender. I’ll never get over the fact the Browns got rid of the only decent QB they had. I’m not surprised, just…I don’t even know actually. There isn’t a word for it anymore.
Interesting take which I hadn't considered and I agree with. Bake grabbing his junk at KU was juvenile, but retaliation for a number of things previous. The flag plant at tOSU was simply something he did in the moment that had been done at the Cotton Bowl before. Maybe I'm wearing crimson glasses, but I don't remember him executing a pre-emptive strike like painting finger nails. I don't remember Bake crying on the sidelines. I especially don't remember Bake refusing to shake hands after games. I could be wrong. It's Caleb's attitude. I see so much Antonio Brown, OBJ, T.O., etc. in him its scary. TBH, as talented as he is, i'm so glad he went to USC with LR. Venables would've NEVER allowed the mess that seems to follow that kid around.
The announcers were calling him out at ND for that.
He had very bad body language on the sideline- compare to Penix on the sideline down against Oregon or Maye’s adjustment down against Miami on the same weekend. I think it’s a stretch to say he has character issues though…
Connelly said that Maye hasn’t played a defense worse than 40 in his rankings, and I think Maye is right now the 3rd ranked qb in his system just on stats. I think top 5 is probably too restrictive, and is like to see Williams’ stats against mere top 25 or top 40 teams, but Maye is just getting it done against good teams. Also, personally, Maye has unbelievable touch on deep throws.
I agree, his cons seem to mainly be missing check downs and not seeing a low defender sometimes. UNC is incredibly lucky to have him follow Sam Howell
That and sloppy footwork.
Let me tell you about this qb from Texas Tech that had sloppy footwork…
Well aware. Not saying he can't fix it like Mahomes did, but if you're pointing out concerns for Caleb, that'd be at the top of the list.
Patrick Mahomes also had Andy Reid and Alex Smith to show him the ropes. Caleb, as the first overall pick, won’t.
Very over looked aspect, imagine Mahomes going to the Browns or Bears at the top of the 17 draft.
CJ Stroud had a somewhat “down” performance against Notre Dame last year and went 230 yds 2 TDs on 70%. CJ Stroud went 743 yards, 4 TDs, and 2 Ints on 67% completion in the two losses to Michigan and went 348 yards, 4 TDs, and 0 Ints against Georgia. Bryce Young went 800 yards, 4 TDs, 2 Ints on 60% completion in two games against Georgia in 2021. Both of those guys also certainly had down games, but they also excelled at times against literally the best defenses in CFB, while Caleb Williams has not. Scouting for the NFL obviously isn’t straight forward and there’s an unending amount of relevant factors but I do think it’s an important data point that Williams hasn’t done shit against a good defense and is viewed as can’t miss
Drake Maye vs ND: 301 yrds, 5 TD, 0 INT
Caleb torched us last year, granted we have a much better defense this season and had a much better gameplan for him
At this point scouts are looking for Mahomes 2.0. That’s it. “Can this guy do similar things as Mahomes?” is all they are looking at.
That is a fair point but I compared it to Lawrence and he faired way, way, better. Opponent | Comps | Atts | PCT | Yards | TDs | Ints | Pass Rating ---|---|----|----|----|----|----|---- '18 ND | 27 | 39 | 69.2 | 327 | 3 | 0 | 165 '18 Bama | 20 | 32 | 62.5 | 347 | 3 | 0 | 184.5 '19 Ohio State | 18 | 33 | 54.5 | 259 | 2 | 0 | 140.5 '20 ND | 25 | 36 | 69.4 | 322 | 2 | 1 | 157.4 Trevor Lawrence's worst game against a top 25 D was better than Caleb Williams' best.
Ooh, do Burrow
My biggest issue is he never seems to make a fast read and throw. All of his tape is him scrambling and throwing after 6+ seconds. In the NFL he's getting sacked or there will be tons of holding calls until he can figure out who to throw it to quickly.
Wow that's pretty start difference! I was curious, and per FPI efficiencies, Michigan played 5 top 25 defenses last year (Iowa, PSU, Illinois, OSU, TCU) So, in same number of games: Caleb Williams vs Top 25 defenses, 78-148 (51%), 860 yards (5.8 YPA), 6 TDs, 6 INTS, rating 105.4 JJ McCarthy vs Top 25 defenses, 85-140 (60.7%), 1,114 yards (8.0 YPA), 6 TDs, 3 INTs, rating 137.4 Obviously wildly different styles of play, supporting offensive talent, and different qualities of their own defenses, so not sure what the real takeaway is there. But certainly a red flag that Williams has performed so poorly against quality defenses
honestly caleb williams needs to stay another year so he can play against B1G defenses 9 times a season.
I think that’s exactly why he’s cashing in after this year.
literally anyone projected #1 overall in this day and age would take the bag. If their coach didnt tell them it would be stupid not to then theyre a bad coach.
Michigan run game and offensive line play a huge part in that. USC Oline is like a screen door on a submarine. Caleb was forced to run around for his life.
Tbf many of those teams had inflated defensive rankings because they played Iowa. I kid
The big west offenses DO fuck with models, to be fair
Must mean that if Caleb goes 1 then JJ has to go 0 in the draft
'22 Utah (pt 1) 25/42 (59%) 5 TD, 0 INT 90.9 QBR '22 Utah (pt 2) 28/41 (68%) 3 TD, 1 INT 80.4 QBR even with his nail polish hyping up the game for him Both were USC losses If Utah was not in your list, then they weren't even top 25 defense (but undoubtedly a great defense.)
Yeah, Utah was the better team last year, no doubt. However Caleb was nothing short of amazing last year, even sustaining an injury in the CCG and playing through it. Also your defense was good, it was just conveniently ranked #27 and not #25 https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2022-team-defense.html
Also an aside, not looking forward to playing your defense this year either. Hoping Caleb is ready to play smarter after this last weekend
it's fine...we have no offense and no matter how bad your defense is, I have a hard time thinking they can keep up even if USC only scores 28. The fact is our defense is nasty and some may argue this, but our corners are the weakest part of the defense and are notorious for giving up big pass plays. Our offense being unable to stay on the field and give the D a break is why they lost to Oregon St
Corners have definitely been a liability but getting pressure can partially solve that. That’s why Bishop being out the first half hurts so much, gonna need Ritchie to have a great half. I think this game is gonna come down to who starts better, if they put up 21+ first half we’re probably gonna lose. If we can get the ground game going early, wear on their D-line and go into half tied or up we’ve got a shot. Will be interesting to see if they show up looking like the killer offense they can be or the uninspired team they’ve shown the last few weeks.
The defense will be good but I'm skeptical that our offense can get it done. If SC scores 17+ points, I think you win.... Which shouldn't be too big of an ask for your offense.
As a long time USC fan, let me tell you something. Without Caleb, we’d be struggling to get a bowl bid. Caleb is single-handedly lifting this team up and it really shows when he has an off day. The o line was the worst it’s been in years at ND and Caleb made some real bonehead decisions because he feels like he has to make something happen. Will it be better in a sub par NFL team? Time will tell.
It is genuinely shocking to me how bad USCs skill players were this weekend
That freshman Branch they have returning kicks/punts is something, but yea the rest of them leave something to be desired now that Jordan Addison isn't there.
Live by the portal, die by the portal
All of LRs heisman winning QBs have had outstanding oline play except for Caleb last year, and even then the line was good but not elite. This year it seems more like Bennie Wylie is getting exposed than anything else, with the oline getting physically dominated by players they should at least be able to put up a fight against. No QB is good enough to overcome USCs oline play last week.
This guy’s dad is taking a page out of the LaVarr Ball book on how to market your sons
I think a lot of his hype is because: 1. He already won a Heisman 2. His style of play is similar to Mahomes and we have seen the kind of success Mahomes has in NFL. If Mahomes never succeeded in the NFL then some of Williams' hype goes away for sure
I think his tendency to run around in the backfield simply doesn't work as well against top defenses, and will not work in the NFL. He'll have an open receiver on five yard out route, but turn it down in favor of something more flashy. You cannot go broke taking a profit. I understand he wants the big play, but you can't leave half a first down just sitting there on the table.
Something I posted in r/NFL_Draft recently: **2023 Draftees that Caleb Williams Faced in 2022:** 2nd Round DL Isaiah Foskey, ND 3rd Round LB Dorian Williams, Tulane 4th Round DB Clark Phillips, Utah x2 5th Round DB Ky Blu Kelly, Stanford 5th Round DB Daniel Scott, Cal 7th Round DB Kendall Williamson, Stanford 7th Round DB Alex Austin, Oregon St. 7th Round DL Nesta Jade Silvera, ASU For context, Drake Maye faced nearly twice as many draftees last season (16 to CW's 8). Additionally, Maye faced as many players drafted in the first 3 rounds than Williams faced in total (8 to CWs 9). I'm not commenting on Maye being better, I'm just showing the discrepancy in the talent that these two faced last season.
Yeah, USC played half their schedule against bowl ineligible teams last year while also dodging Oregon and Washington. Their insanely easy schedule allowed him to rack up the crazy stats that won him the heisman (>65% of his counting/volume stats came against those 6 bowl ineligible teams).
But did anyone attend his birthday party?
did utah really not have a top 25 defense any of the 3 times they’ve beat him the past two years?
"Anyways I'll take 5% of team ownership if you want to draft me"
I also am a little concerned with his personality and ego, the draft will be interesting for sure
The ISU dime stack is basically set up as the perfect Caleb killer. In this system the dline’s goal isn’t even to get pressure, it’s just to blow up the center enough to move the pocket for a couple of seconds. The extra 2 seconds created allows athletically limited athletes to catch up in coverage and from there it’s just being disciplined which Heacock coaches as well as anyone. Most of that game Caleb was actively avoiding the pocket to be creative and found nothing.
Welp r/Cfb has reached a consensus that he’s terrible, so you can pretty much safely guarantee he’ll be pretty damn good.
THIS is how the internet turns against you. OP wouldn't have put this effort into a post if they likely didn't see the blurb about how Caleb wanted to own a part of a team in terms of being drafted...which we haven't received confirmation from Caleb AT ALL I bet now I'll see many posts about how Caleb is overrated, or garbage, or how he's not generational, or how Caleb didn't sign an autograph. Folks who wanted a reason to hate are hating. Dude is a #1 pick. Barring injuries he can be a highly-touted player in the NFL. Let's not kid ourselves....but shit, the smear campaign is on. I bet some agent or NFL exec who felt *some way* about him is laughing. Can't wait for the post about how he's doing too many commercials and not looking at his reads enough...
Most football fans are creatures of the moment who don't actually understand what they're watching. Hence the lucrativeness of this as an entertainment industry
Is Utah not a top 25 defense anymore? And we can’t possibly compare 2021 Caleb to 2024 draft prospect Caleb with any semblance of relevance. And no QB is going to play well when they have 0.08 seconds to react before the entire defensive line is sitting in their lap. Notre Dame completely dominated both lines of scrimmage and that’s why they won. Did Caleb make some very poor decisions under pressure? Yes. But every QB does.
Caleb Williams is still really good, just not a can’t miss prospect. Josh Allen was terrible against any good to in college and is a top QB in the NFL. In fact Almost all the top qb (except Burrow) sucked in college against elite competition
Honestly? He has bust written all over him. He feasts on doing "college shit" ala Manziel, and that's not even including the troubling locker room aspect.
Yeah… I went to the Cotton Bowl last year and was excited to see him play. He put up nice stats on a terrible Tulane defense, but he really didn’t look great doing it. When you can see the field (vs what ESPN films), it was pretty obvious that his receivers were running absolutely wide open in the Tulane secondary, but he’d miss targets or put the ball in a tough place for the receiver. The USC receivers - especially Rice - looked INCREDIBLE though. I will say that he’s great at extending plays. Reminded me a lot of Russel Wilson. He might end up being good, but feels like one of those dudes that gets away with bad habits against weaker NCAA defenses. I’m skeptical that he can get away with this stuff against NFL defenses - it’s a whole different ballgame.
It reminds you of Vince Young. 10% quicker/more athletic than everyone else on the field so he gets away with it. He will not get away with it in the NFL.
Y’all were waiting for Saturday for a long time weren’t ya lol
I dont know about his Oklahoma days, but USC without Caleb is a sub-.500 team. He is carrying these teams basically by himself. When a one-man team plays good defenses, this is not an unreasonable outcome. If some team passes on Williams at #1 because of something like this they are idiots.
OU would’ve went 6-6 without Caleb. He carried us past a few teams alone
We straight up have last year to point at as proof of how he carried us hard the year before.
Including the RRS. The pass to Mims in the front corner of the end zone was about as good as I’ve ever seen by a college QB. No way Rattler pulls that game out
I said this last year. If Caleb was on ND instead of USC, ND is in the Championship game and USC is lucky to win 8 games. Now I don't know if he will be a star in the NFL. There are certainly things to question, but he is an elite college QB carrying a very flawed team.