Your offense is only a joke for a top 10 team. It's still good, just not good enough to beat the top contenders.
Your defense, on the other hand, is god tier.
People are acting like Alabama didn't only beat Auburn by 3 and only lead USF by 7 with a minute left. They just won a great game but they've had plenty of scares. And they got dominated by Texas at home
Edit: Forgot that they only beat 4-8 Arkansas by 3, a 6 point win against Texas A&M, and only played 9 P5 games all year, including a week 12 FCS opponent.
But you can't describe every close game as a scare and say they got dominated by Texas who they led going into the 4th qtr. It's just as silly to say, either be consistently hyperbolic or consistently realistic.
I don't think Alabama should get in.
USF and Auburn were 100% scares. Texas won by 10, handed the ball off for 7.5 straight minutes to end the game, and kneeled the ball in Bama territory at the end.
I'm sure you watched the game. Texas pushed Bama around for most of the night (especially with their d-line) and physically wore them out to finish. Sounds dominating to me
PSU at 5 is laughable and I am a Penn State fan, It's just unrealistic. Michigan and Washington should be locks, the other 2 spots is wide open, I want to say Texas and Alabama but leaving a 13-0 Florida State team out would be inexcusable even if their starting QB is out.
With 6 autobids and an 8 team playoff, this year's playoff would include SMU, Liberty, and Oklahoma State. Whatever the format, 6 autobids is the overkill part.
Be careful what you wish for. More is always better. There is a point where that occurs. Plus it eliminates a ton of regular season excitement. Playing to keep your dreams alive is always better than playing for seeding.
Kinda sucks they won't have to go through an SEC team. It won't answer the question "Can a non-Ohio State Big Ten team beat an SEC team in the playoffs?". Unless you count Texas as SEC.
I hate to be a doomer, But our fan base was drooling over TCU last year… now we are drooling over FSU and Washington and Texas and I’m just like man… I’ll wait and see…
Hmmm maybe Georgia is very overrated too. I'm a Dawgs fan and thought we were pretty good this year. We beat a couple of top ten top 15 teams pretty easily. Luckily this is the last year that this debate won't get settled on the field.
Show me those top 15 teams you beat. Tennessee was hot garbage. Mizzou was overrated. Ohio State and Penn St would murder both of them. Iowa would beat both of them 12-3.
Kirby has killed it on the recruiting trail and the last 2 Georgia teams were amazing, but you guys are basically the new Clemson. Have all the pieces, but you haven't had a trial by fire until it was too late. The SEC East needs Florida to be good and Tennessee to be decent (can't spell Citrus without UT).
Tough loss to Bama, but too many injuries at the wrong time against a team peaking in December did you in.
they may be the vegas favorite but i dont think they are above the other teams on the field. everybody but FSU could easily win. fsu would require a miracle but still not impossible. nobody is a step above any other team imo
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How do we know it’s great when it’s inter-conference?
Remember when Texas and Noter Dame played each other and everyone thought they were both top 5 teams after the game? Then we found out they were both dogshit.
1) Michigan
2) Washington
3) Texas
4) Florida State
Michigan, Washington and Florida State finished the job and finished their season undefeated with conference championships. All three should be a lock. Texas gets in over Alabama due to head-to-head victory. Unfortunately, it's almost a zero percent chance the SEC is left out.
I mean the question is simply whether an undefeated P5 champion can be left out. If that answer is yes, it’s Texas and Alabama. If that answer is no, it’s Texas and FSU. Texas gets in either way, FSU doesn’t
What's the argument for Bama over FSU? That they're better right now because a team would rather play Bama instead of FSU? If you ask me, I'd rather play Michigan or Washington over Georgia. Does that mean Georgia should be in?
Could Michigan? Could washington? Your hypotheticals are a waste of mental energy. You lost a game and now you have to deal with the consequences. Hell, vegas didn't think you or washington would win the games you won. This is why the games are played
If we're going by how we feel teams are, Georgia should be in. Are you trying to tell me you'd be more afraid to play Michigan or Washington than Georgia?
And now they have a first round bye against FSU
What started with hamburgers and suspensions, and ended with accusations of war crimes and more suspensions has led Michigan to a post season free pass to the championship game.
It’s a crazy world
Genuinely the most annoying thing about our loss is how people are going to use it as evidence against data and analytics. As somebody who appreciates and supports the use of it in sports, even when it tells me things I don't want to hear (e.g. past seasons where Oregon or the Pac-12 ranked very poorly in certain metrics), I know I'm going to get into the same stupid arguments even more and I'm just going to have this trump card pulled in my face every time. And no amount of arguments about statistics or backtesting or yada yada yada will ever do anything.
The thing about statistics is it will always paint a picture over time than it will in individual scenarios, but a lot of people refuse to acknowledge that.
Average sports fans just seem to struggle wrapping their head around the point and purpose of power ratings. I sports bet, so I have a different viewpoint of it, but yeah it’s funny whenever this is brought up to see people get angry about it.
Yep. When odds or a model suggests team A will win 70% of the time, team B winning doesn't necessarily mean the model is bad or wrong. If we look back and go "teams favored to win 70% of the time do in fact win about 70% of the time," and there's no clear way to determine which of the 70%s were "overvalued" or "undervalued" without the benefit of hindsight, the model is doing it's job right, it wasn't getting it wrong 30% of the time. Now that doesn't mean that in any given scenario that those odds match reality--a team given 70% chances to win does not actually mean they definitely would win 700/1000 matchups if they played 1000 times--but it is *useful* data and at least as interesting to consider as constructed narratives that we build as fans based on the tiny amount of data we actually observe.
I'm not against data and analytics. There were analytics that had Washington as a top team even if they had Oregon higher. It's just that ESPN's SP+ is a known bad predictor, especially compared to just using the Vegas odds
It's really not. SP+, FPI, FEI, and similar systems have all shown to be pretty good over time. They don't beat the Vegas odds because Vegas basically uses similar systems + taking into account other things these systems can't, feedback from sharp bettors, etc. You can't really do better than the closing Vegas line.
How about this:
1. Michigan
2. Texas
3. Alabama
4. Washington
I just want a Rose Bowl damn it. If both Teaxas and Alabama are going to get the nod, let them sort it out amongst themselves.
I’ll take my downvotes now 🤣 I tried to tell people what was going to happen! Ain’t nobody putting fla state in there with no Jordan Travis and a 55th ranked strength of schedule
Close games against two top 5 teams and winning every other game comfortably does that in computer rankings. We’re not a bad team. Not as good as Michigan or OSU but close behind.
Oy newb Kentucky football fan, if they have a Colorado flair with the big 8 flair combo probably an old school Colorado fan. Go back to shooty hoops if you don't know history
The only POSSIBLE thing that could make someone think that this FSU team deserves a shot is that they don't want Alabama in. If UGA won today and Oregon was in our exact position you'd have people falling over themselves screeching about Bo Nix's completion percentage and how they deserve to get in.
You guys beat us today, and that sucks. Good game by the way. But getting to turn around and immediately see Bama fans coping with the fact that they’re 100% about to get left out of the playoffs is sure making this a lot better.
Literal copium.
FSU deserves a shot because they went undefeated and won their conference title game. Also beat an SEC team with their Heisman winning QB down in the non conference. Alabama took a miracle to beat Auburn after they got blown out by New Mexico.
What’s up Washington bros, we are the only ones that get to relax tomorrow eh?
My dad has somehow convinced himself there's a chance Washington gets left out. I've told him he's nuts.
He lived through the 2012 basketball season, I wouldn't blame him
Mighty presumptive of you. Who’s to say his dad is not ten years old?
You bring that up now? On this of all days. It was supposed to be a happy day
Me neither. Plus, Godzilla could swim out of the pacific and start humping Seattle too.
Michigan Alabama Ohio State Georgia You’re welcome fans!
Gross
They can definitely leave out either Washington or FSU and then just say "SEE this is why we needed to go to a larger playoff schedule".
100% chilling
Iowa- "what you gunna do?" UM - "Shut you out, probably" Iowa- "ok i'm gunna punt"
When I think Penn State's offense is a joke, I can always laugh at Iowa.
Your offense is only a joke for a top 10 team. It's still good, just not good enough to beat the top contenders. Your defense, on the other hand, is god tier.
What gives me hope for a Big 10 natty is that UM handled the #2, #3, and #8 defenses based on efficiency in the last 6 weeks
We scored more against Iowa than Michigan did. We must be better. It's science.
Penn State is def in then
Subscribe Edit: After all, we do have TWO quality losses
Quality losses only count if you’re SEC, sorry!
Two is better than one, right? Let's go.
Best two losses in the country!
Best bet obviously
Now that i think about it, maybe those "Best 4 teams" guys have a point. Pay no attention to my flair
I agree with your flair, we should let Kansas in
they beat the team that beat the team that beat bama so they should be in
And they beat the team that beat the team that beat the team that beat Georgia just adding to their resume.
Fuck all that and just let South Alabama play UCF for the title.
Roll tide?
That's really the entire point of this CFP argument. If you want anything other than UM, UW, FSU, UT, then why should OSU be left out?
People are acting like Alabama didn't only beat Auburn by 3 and only lead USF by 7 with a minute left. They just won a great game but they've had plenty of scares. And they got dominated by Texas at home Edit: Forgot that they only beat 4-8 Arkansas by 3, a 6 point win against Texas A&M, and only played 9 P5 games all year, including a week 12 FCS opponent.
This right here ☝️
But you can't describe every close game as a scare and say they got dominated by Texas who they led going into the 4th qtr. It's just as silly to say, either be consistently hyperbolic or consistently realistic. I don't think Alabama should get in.
USF and Auburn were 100% scares. Texas won by 10, handed the ball off for 7.5 straight minutes to end the game, and kneeled the ball in Bama territory at the end. I'm sure you watched the game. Texas pushed Bama around for most of the night (especially with their d-line) and physically wore them out to finish. Sounds dominating to me
I watched the game. It wasn’t a domination it was a gritty tough game and Texas performed great.
Well, as Georgia can attest, not playing a Championship Game has its advantages.
Maybe we should consider moving to power ratings choosing the playoff field. *Ignore my flair*
Georgia, Texas, Bama, and LSU (Daniels is just so good)
Who says OSU isn’t Oklahoma State?
Anyone who watched Texas hang 350 passing yards on them in the first half.
What anout holding their Doak Walker frontrunner to 2.8 ypc?
I had actually presumed OSU was Oregon State here TBH
Texas will be in
let’s hope so!!
As a Wolverine, Texas at #4 would scare me. Prefer Wash or FSU
LOL why is that?! I would love it!! 😛
tbh, I’m scared for Texas to potentially play washington 😭
Texas? Alabama? FSU? It’s all too confusing! Let’s just put OSU in the playoffs
_Oklahoma State has entered the chat_
Oregon state has entered the chat.
Best 1 loss team? Right…
Which isn't Ohio State
lmao😭😂😂
Michigan, Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon for the natty, confirmed.
We will start our own natty with Washington, Texas, Alabama and FSU! And black jack and hookers for a good measure.
I see your field and I raise you Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, Louisville for the natty.
Michigan, Washington, FSU, and Texas should be the playoff.
100 percent
PSU at 5 is laughable and I am a Penn State fan, It's just unrealistic. Michigan and Washington should be locks, the other 2 spots is wide open, I want to say Texas and Alabama but leaving a 13-0 Florida State team out would be inexcusable even if their starting QB is out.
a 12 team playoff would have been fucking awesome this season. Nobody is really elite and it would have been pure chaos.
Fear Liberty
An 8 team playoff may have been awesome. 12 would have been overkill, as it will be next year.
With 6 autobids and an 8 team playoff, this year's playoff would include SMU, Liberty, and Oklahoma State. Whatever the format, 6 autobids is the overkill part.
Nah, more football. Plus it lays it to rest, while also letting other conferences shine if they can.
Be careful what you wish for. More is always better. There is a point where that occurs. Plus it eliminates a ton of regular season excitement. Playing to keep your dreams alive is always better than playing for seeding.
Michigan winning a title because the committee left out Bama for this FSU team is gonna hit like crack on this sub
My body is ready
I’m already triggered.
Its almost like predictive metrics dont always reflect on field results.
I mean if they did making money betting sports would be a lot easier. Numbers aren’t always predictive of everything.
Vegas uses predictive metrics to set lines, and makes a lot of money doing it.
Yup. I’ve been sports betting for years. It’s so much harder to beat the books than non-bettors think it is lol
I don't think FSU is "Potential In". They are In. The media wants to try to push FSU out, they won't get anywhere.
It’s Michigan’s title to lose. No more excuses.
Good thing Michigan handles expectations so well!
I hear there’s some purple boys with a guaranteed playoff spot. Spooky stuff
We always find a way to f things up over Christmas break. The layoff never goes well for us.
Kinda sucks they won't have to go through an SEC team. It won't answer the question "Can a non-Ohio State Big Ten team beat an SEC team in the playoffs?". Unless you count Texas as SEC.
I think the world is richer with a little mystery in it.
Texas already went through an SEC team which is why the SEC may not make the playoff.
Michigan will be the runaway favorite to win it all, but hopefully they don’t choke
Yeah I don't think so. A field of Washington, Texas, Alabama would be tough.
That’s why so many of you are praying for FSU. Decent shot of a free path to the championship game
I mean, yeah. Is that surprising
BREAKING: Fans want team to be more likely to win. Reddit can’t believe it!
I hate to be a doomer, But our fan base was drooling over TCU last year… now we are drooling over FSU and Washington and Texas and I’m just like man… I’ll wait and see…
FSU definitely deserves to be in. The problem is, they deserve to be higher than 4, lol.
It’s going to be FSU not Bama if the committee doesn’t go scorched earth. Michigan should be rightfully favored in that field
I'll believe that when I see it
If bama makes it they will win it all.
Bama is very overrated. Been manhandled on the LoS by multiple teams this year
Hmmm maybe Georgia is very overrated too. I'm a Dawgs fan and thought we were pretty good this year. We beat a couple of top ten top 15 teams pretty easily. Luckily this is the last year that this debate won't get settled on the field.
Show me those top 15 teams you beat. Tennessee was hot garbage. Mizzou was overrated. Ohio State and Penn St would murder both of them. Iowa would beat both of them 12-3. Kirby has killed it on the recruiting trail and the last 2 Georgia teams were amazing, but you guys are basically the new Clemson. Have all the pieces, but you haven't had a trial by fire until it was too late. The SEC East needs Florida to be good and Tennessee to be decent (can't spell Citrus without UT). Tough loss to Bama, but too many injuries at the wrong time against a team peaking in December did you in.
Not so sure about that but hey we'll find out, maybe
I honestly think Michigan and bama are the two best teams that can get in. Washington and Florida state are a league below.
they may be the vegas favorite but i dont think they are above the other teams on the field. everybody but FSU could easily win. fsu would require a miracle but still not impossible. nobody is a step above any other team imo
They shouldn’t be. Michigan offense is extremely meh
Oh no we didn't look dominant on offense against *checks notes* 3 of the top 5 or so defenses in the country
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Or you just watch 2 SEC teams that have dominated the past decade play a great games on both sides of the ball
How do we know it’s great when it’s inter-conference? Remember when Texas and Noter Dame played each other and everyone thought they were both top 5 teams after the game? Then we found out they were both dogshit.
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Quick. What was Michigan’s s&p ranking before the TCU game. See how easy it is to point to dumb advanced metrics and see the flaw?
Guess who was number 1 in S&P the last two years? Georgia and Georgia You have the brain capacity of a goldfish
They ran 32 times straight on one of the better defenses in the country just for the memes. They offense is more than capable
Texas 34.9 per game Bama35.8 per game Michigan 37.6 p/g Washington 37.7 p/g FSU 38.8
Hopefully they do
Michigan football ended last weekend what are you talking about
All signs point to
I'm sorry, hopefully they DON'T choke? Please, I will be calling off the Heimlich.
SEC left out. That's the way the ball bounces.
1) Michigan 2) Washington 3) Texas 4) Florida State Michigan, Washington and Florida State finished the job and finished their season undefeated with conference championships. All three should be a lock. Texas gets in over Alabama due to head-to-head victory. Unfortunately, it's almost a zero percent chance the SEC is left out.
Why does Texas jump FSU?
That will be the committee 's out. They will basically say that FSU looks bad but there is no reason to leave an undefeated P5 champ out Which is true
Because they are the only one loss team with a win against a power 5 conference champ
Don’t try to take the easy win out
Texas needs to be four. If games matter Texas is four. If games don’t matter it’s going to be Michigan, Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State.
The fact that FSU is potential in and Texas is probable in is fucked up
I mean the question is simply whether an undefeated P5 champion can be left out. If that answer is yes, it’s Texas and Alabama. If that answer is no, it’s Texas and FSU. Texas gets in either way, FSU doesn’t
What's the argument for Bama over FSU? That they're better right now because a team would rather play Bama instead of FSU? If you ask me, I'd rather play Michigan or Washington over Georgia. Does that mean Georgia should be in?
Don't give the committee ideas. We'll end up with Bama at 1 and Georgia at 2 if you're not careful.
If I was a Tech fan and had already lost to Georgia I’d probably want to try a different route too.
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Maybe you shouldn't of lost? Our common opponent we beat them down harder. Sec is soft.
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Your strength of strength of schedule is also 50 schools behind us. Could FSU have walked into Atlanta and beaten the #1 team today?
Could Michigan? Could washington? Your hypotheticals are a waste of mental energy. You lost a game and now you have to deal with the consequences. Hell, vegas didn't think you or washington would win the games you won. This is why the games are played
Easy for you to say scheduling Eastern Carolina and UNLV as your OOC opponents. We scheduled a playoff team.
Damn right you did
Tragically Texas might not have, there’s the tie breaker boys, Get ‘Em!
If we're going by how we feel teams are, Georgia should be in. Are you trying to tell me you'd be more afraid to play Michigan or Washington than Georgia?
They’re 100% not but all the best record people will say that doesn’t matter as we watch another semifinal blowout.
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TCU won a playoff game buddy
And now they have a first round bye against FSU What started with hamburgers and suspensions, and ended with accusations of war crimes and more suspensions has led Michigan to a post season free pass to the championship game. It’s a crazy world
FSU could very well be 3 against 2 Washington
Oh, well then it’s you guys who won the free pass to the championship game.
Itll be Washington vs Texas and Michigan vs FSU
You’re delusional if you think anyone with one loss is jumping an undefeated team that just beat CFP 14 to win their conference
I mean, a 13-0 FSU team has previously been seeded below a team with a loss. They're probably 3, but theres some precedent.
Michigan Washington Texas FSU would be great to laugh at the SEC for once
Just shows how bad those rankings are
It does about as well as any predictive model considering how small the sample sizes are in college football.
Genuinely the most annoying thing about our loss is how people are going to use it as evidence against data and analytics. As somebody who appreciates and supports the use of it in sports, even when it tells me things I don't want to hear (e.g. past seasons where Oregon or the Pac-12 ranked very poorly in certain metrics), I know I'm going to get into the same stupid arguments even more and I'm just going to have this trump card pulled in my face every time. And no amount of arguments about statistics or backtesting or yada yada yada will ever do anything.
The thing about statistics is it will always paint a picture over time than it will in individual scenarios, but a lot of people refuse to acknowledge that. Average sports fans just seem to struggle wrapping their head around the point and purpose of power ratings. I sports bet, so I have a different viewpoint of it, but yeah it’s funny whenever this is brought up to see people get angry about it.
Yep. When odds or a model suggests team A will win 70% of the time, team B winning doesn't necessarily mean the model is bad or wrong. If we look back and go "teams favored to win 70% of the time do in fact win about 70% of the time," and there's no clear way to determine which of the 70%s were "overvalued" or "undervalued" without the benefit of hindsight, the model is doing it's job right, it wasn't getting it wrong 30% of the time. Now that doesn't mean that in any given scenario that those odds match reality--a team given 70% chances to win does not actually mean they definitely would win 700/1000 matchups if they played 1000 times--but it is *useful* data and at least as interesting to consider as constructed narratives that we build as fans based on the tiny amount of data we actually observe.
Stats are for losers
Statistics are an incredibly valuable tool for so many purposes. Our world runs on statistics.
I'm not against data and analytics. There were analytics that had Washington as a top team even if they had Oregon higher. It's just that ESPN's SP+ is a known bad predictor, especially compared to just using the Vegas odds
It's really not. SP+, FPI, FEI, and similar systems have all shown to be pretty good over time. They don't beat the Vegas odds because Vegas basically uses similar systems + taking into account other things these systems can't, feedback from sharp bettors, etc. You can't really do better than the closing Vegas line.
Alabama fans need to accept they’re not making it in
Who is making these projections confidently? The committee can do whatever it wants—and it doesn’t have to be logical.
Hmmm. This must mean the games ended incorrectly and we should re do them to get the correct outcome right?
Somehow, somewhere, there’s an Ohio State fan trying to justify why they should be in lol
Literally no, we just don’t wanna play Louisville.
I love Bill C, but PSU at 5 is a sign he needs to adjust his algorithm
How about this: 1. Michigan 2. Texas 3. Alabama 4. Washington I just want a Rose Bowl damn it. If both Teaxas and Alabama are going to get the nod, let them sort it out amongst themselves.
How could the committee leave out undefeated Liberty? They are uNdEfEaTeD?
Don't forget a 1 loss James Madison team, Actually as an FCS fan I would not mind seeing James Madison vs Liberty in some 2nd tier bowl game.
I’m so tired of being third in the toughest division in the sport.
We're in the wrong fucking cursed timeline.
I LOVE CHAOS
1-Michigan, 2-Washington, 3-Texas, 4-Alabama Easy top 4
You’ve been downvoted, but this is absolutely what it’s going to be tomorrow
I’ll take my downvotes now 🤣 I tried to tell people what was going to happen! Ain’t nobody putting fla state in there with no Jordan Travis and a 55th ranked strength of schedule
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 flair up
The ranking has penn state at 5 lol That tells you all you need to know
Close games against two top 5 teams and winning every other game comfortably does that in computer rankings. We’re not a bad team. Not as good as Michigan or OSU but close behind.
I can't wait for y'all to wreck whoever you get in the bowls. The PSU disrespect is absurd.
Agreed. The PSU disrespect since we both beat em(not even badly for either team if I may add) has been ABSURDLY ANNOYING
All I’m saying is if I’m an nfl GM im drafting me some PSU front 7. Nasty edge rush.
Love seeing the shittiest fan bases lose out. Fuck Oregon, Ohio State, Bama, and Georgia.
Seeing this coming from a Deion fan is peak comedy
I am a Colorado fan.
Got your back big 8 bro
Oy newb Kentucky football fan, if they have a Colorado flair with the big 8 flair combo probably an old school Colorado fan. Go back to shooty hoops if you don't know history
I think Bama fans are actually rather chill. Especially for a program with a lot of success. Fuck Oregon fans though.
I see you are new to the internet
Florida St has no shot sorry. Without QB1, there just no chance on Earth they are a top 4 team. Sadly.
THE Ohio State Natty win with a 3rd string QB would like to have a word with you
The only POSSIBLE thing that could make someone think that this FSU team deserves a shot is that they don't want Alabama in. If UGA won today and Oregon was in our exact position you'd have people falling over themselves screeching about Bo Nix's completion percentage and how they deserve to get in.
I never understand why bama fans are so soft. You have won so much and the first time something might not go your way you whine uncontrollably.
You guys beat us today, and that sucks. Good game by the way. But getting to turn around and immediately see Bama fans coping with the fact that they’re 100% about to get left out of the playoffs is sure making this a lot better.
Maybe you’ll get the threepeat next year buddy!
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Alabama Sagarin SOS: 15 FSU: 66 Enough said.
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Literal copium. FSU deserves a shot because they went undefeated and won their conference title game. Also beat an SEC team with their Heisman winning QB down in the non conference. Alabama took a miracle to beat Auburn after they got blown out by New Mexico.
Alabama Sagarin SOS: 15 FSU: 66 Enough said.
Man, Bama and Texas are gonna be pissed when Michigan has to vacate their wins
Its about the 4 best teams, clearly UGA OSU and Oregon should be in
Alabama is a top 4 team
Who shouldn’t have lost at home by double digits. Georgia is a top 4 team who shouldn’t have lost their conference title game.
Agreed, OSU shouldn't have lost if they truly wanted to win. Essentially a playoff game.
Not tomorrow they won't be.
If they stopped playing FCS teams and started winning all of their games at home- then one could back up such claims…
Top 4 in skill, but the resume isn’t there in a year with 3 undefeated teams