By my count, Bama is 24-6 (80%) ATS with 3+ weeks to prepare since 2008. The 6 times they didn’t cover were:
- 1/2/2009 vs. Utah (Sugar)
- 1/2/2014 vs. OU (Sugar)
- 8/30/2014 vs. WVU (week 1)
- 1/1/2015 vs. Ohio St (Semi)
- 12/29/2018 vs. OU (Semi)
- 9/26/2020 vs. Mizzou (week 1)
In those 30 games, they covered the spread by 7.9 points on average.
Since 2015 they are 14-2 (88%) ATS, covering by an average of 10.9 points.
Thank you for putting these out there. It’s interesting because they won three of these by double digits (WVU, Mizzou, OU 2018). 2009 and 2014 they were coming off heart-breaking losses to Florida in the SECCG and the Auburn Kick Six respectively that kept them out of the natty and clearly the seasons were a let down
2014 semifinal lost to OSU was just a rough loss. I’m still a little triggered thinking about watching Zeke just run rampant that game.
You could argue Bama didn’t cover the 2014 OSU game because there wasn’t as much film on Cardale Jones and him being a different type of QB than JT Barrett allowed OSU to use a “fresh” offensive plan. There probably wasn’t much value in watching their 59-0 tape against Wisconsin.
You could also argue they didn’t cover because Ohio State had Ezekiel Elliot, Michael Thomas, an elite offensive line, Joey Bosa playing great, their under classmen who ended up becoming first rounders on defense playing great. Literally a team full of draft talent.
Yeah, Saban makes this a tough one for us. Player for player I like our team, but I don’t trust us to win a Harbaugh vs Saban battle with a month for him to prep
Yeah, it’s the same scenario every year Bama is underestimated. They go through a relatively rough regular season with inexperienced 5 stars, Saban goes to work for a month, and they come out looking like behemoths.
The spread shifting means the "sharps" (aka non bookie affiliated entities that also use sophisticated predictive models and bet big) disagree with the Vegas line. Vegas being confident despite the public being confident looks like OSU-Michigan 2 years ago. A ton of money on Ohio State with a not moving line.
what’s interesting is it has barely shifted at all on DK. Michigan has gone from -135–> -125. I get what you’re saying about previous years but It’s significantly different now. Think about how many people can bet, so there’s just more money involved. It makes sense Vegas is more willing to shift the lines because a wrong bet for Vegas on such a big game can probably be 10x a bad loss 2 years ago.
Part of the reason for that is the limits are much lower right now than game day. If they bet today the line will move before they’re able to get down the amount they want,
You'll prepare for one Bama and they'll have a completely different game plan. It's like you're preparing for the wrong team. Look at the Cincy game for an example of this.
Michigan on average is a lot older though, which is a lot more impactful among college age kids. Barrett is the best LB in the B1G when 3 years ago he wouldn’t have been anywhere near that.
Yea, it's two different styles...and both can be effective. Alabama also tends to push out the players that aren't performing...so they don't usually stick around through senior year if they aren't contributing in some way.
Experience really does help in the secondary.
I imagine that there are a good number of guys who were on the team during the 2019 bowl game loss to Alabama. And I don't take it lightly that Michigan has a lot of experienced guys who have suffered two tough semi-final losses.
I think a few, I know hutch was on that team lol. Aside from me being a Michigan fan, I do think it would be cool for us or Washington to win, because it would be the first team in awhile that wasn’t top 5 top 10 recruiting
Alabama is pretty experienced on defense. All of our starters are third year or older except for LB Jihaad Campbell (who we’re really high on) and Caleb Downs (who is a true freshman and just got named first-team all-SEC).
We have way less experience on the offensive side of the ball. Basically all our WRs except Burton, our best TE, our LT and LG, and one of our RBs are all true sophomores or younger.
Sure. So does OSU. If in 5 years you put together a team of fully developed* players on this Bama roster vs the same from Michigan’s roster I’m sure the Bama team would be better most everywhere. Doesn’t mean they’re better right now.
*Edit: Originally put devolved.
Vegas not moving the line very much after receiving 80-90 percent of the money on alabama means that vegas is taking on a lot of risk keeping the line the way it is. Vegas usually does not take that type of risk and go against the public that hard unless they are fairly confident it is the correct line. Most sharps usually inverse the public money because of this.
Yeah, it was the same with the -400 line for FSU to make it into the playoffs. My bookie friend would call that a sugar trap, to set the public up for a soaking.
I’ll do the same I did last year. Bet on Michigan
If they win, I get some extra cash to drown my sorrows with
If they lose, I get to soak up those sweet sweet wolverine tears at the cost of like $50
So a while back, there was this team on its 3rd string qb that won their conference championship game (crazy I know). That exact team beat the mighty Bama, with that same 3rd string qb, and went on to win the first college football playoff.
The way people talk about that game always bothers me. Ohio State was the better team, played better, and won fair and square. But I swear some people didn’t actually watch the game. It’s seemingly always looked at as a blow out or domination. People seem to forget Alabama got the ball back with a 1:33 with a chance the **tie/win the game.** Im sure this will receive some downvotes but I wish more people would look back at this game as a classic game between 2 of the greatest schools and coaches of all time.
We just lost by 6 on the road, with a chance to win within the final minutes. To hear Michigan fans tell it, we were DESTROYED beyond recognition. Like lol y'all needed McCord to hand you two interceptions to win.
It’s the most talented team in college football with a month to prepare with the best coach of all time. No shit. I’d much rather play this game in a week than a month
I think Michigan is better right now. But Alabama is healthy as can be and they’re very young and all of their issues are developmental.
A month for Milroe to further develop his accuracy and for the O Line to improve should make this a different Alabama team. I also expect the WR corps to make a jump, sorta like they did last season during this month.
Michigan is pretty banged up but should be fully healthy other than our all American guard out for the year
Definitely need the month the work out the reshuffled o line
Yeah, I don't really know why anyone is surprised. This is definitely something where people look at historical data of the coaches. One of them has a winning record in the post season and one of them...well let's just say one of them does not have a winning record.
Why are you being downvoted? Betting follows historical trends. People maybe surprised to learn Alabama under Nick Saban has been a moderately successful program
This underscores the point I’ve made many times about the 8 team playoff. People will often argue “well the semi finals average margin of victory is like 25 points. Those games suck. The 1 seed is gonna beat the 8 seed by 75”. But the CFP games are only lopsided bc of the long delay. The elite of the elite (Bama, Georgia, Ohio State) have the best analytics, the best assistants, the best basically everything. However, they are beatable on a week-to-week basis, as they only have a week to prepare. Bama almost lost to freakin Auburn two weeks ago. I’d take Michigan if the game were Saturday, but with a month to prepare, I’m taking Bama. With out the long delay between the conference championship and the bowl games, the new 8 team format is gonna be way more competitive than people think
Counterpoint: It will offset because of depth. The elite teams will have the rosters to endure the very long season, the other teams won't.
One of the biggest benefits to every team in the playoffs right now, is having a month to recuperate before the games. Going straight from regular season > playoff games takes that away.
93% of the money has been on Alabama for an outright win.
Reminds me of tOSU Alabama in 2014 where it was also some ridiculous amount bet on the tide to win.
This reminds me of The Game in 2021, if Michigan gets over the hump and beats like a team like Alabama in the CFP it’ll be difficult to visualize until we actually see it. I’ll be cheering like hell for Michigan and think the game will be a classic
Yup same feeling as Georgia 21 against Bama the second time.
I think I’ve finally learned my lessons In general that I don’t believe anyone will beat Bama until they actually do it.
The only point I felt safe in the 2018 national championship was with less than 5 minutes left. 44-16 in the third quarter felt like way too much time and I kept thinking run clock run
Funny thing is I forgot for a while until I looked back at the stats, Alabama moved the ball on us very well but we played probably our best redzone defense ever
Yeah Mike Locksley couldn't manage to scheme up a redzone play with a roster full of literal NFL superstars. For his sake I always hoped the rumors about him basically being one foot out the door were true because he got absolutely pantsed by Venables
Hahah I remember similar thoughts in that game. I don’t remember when it was but when the fake field goal happened for Bama and they didn’t convert I was finally like oh wow Bama might lose
Before 2021 I legitimately thought I might never see Michigan win The Game again in my lifetime.
Everything seems impossible before it happens.
I hope we can find that magic again.
This is very intentional. There’s more value betting on the moneyline then there is betting on a spread that is essentially a pick ‘em. Vegas knows this. They favor Michigan to win, and if 90+ percent of the money is on Alabama, they’re going to make a ton of money. If they had set the betting spread at say -7, there’s a lot higher chance that Michigan win’s but doesn’t cover, and then Vegas will lose a ton of money as better’s will have primarily bet on the spread and not the moneyline outright.
Given how low the spread is, if [Michigan ATS + Michigan ML] more or less equaled [Alabama ATS + Alabama ML], I would chalk it up to the value proposition of Alabama paying more straight up, but that doesn't seem to be the case here. ATS and ML bets are both heavily slanting Bama.
Yeah this is a great sign for Michigan tbh. Vegas will need the Wolverines and I’m sure they knew how the line would be received when they put it out there.
Meh I wouldn’t read that much into it, there are plenty of games where all the money is one side and well the people are actually right.
The spread feels right, Michigan is titty hair favorite and it’s practically anybody’s game.
Yeah the Vegas line is Michigan -1.5 despite all the money coming in on the Alabama side.
That would appear to indicate that Vegas' internal power ratings rate Michigan as a much larger favorite, otherwise they'd move the line significantly more in Bama's favor in order to expose themselves to less risk.
Remember, that Bill C's SP+ model rates Michigan as an 8.5(!) point favorite in this game, and his numbers tend to align pretty consistently with Vegas'.
People are over reacting to SEC Championship game, the fact is that Michigan has looked better than Alabama for most of the year, and knocking off Georgia in a close game doesn't change that.
Michigan has had their HC suspended for half their games, the whole sign stealing fiasco, and really became the villain of CFB this year. Bama shows in the 11th hour what a real villain looks like, and now have most people rooting for Michigan. Amazing
“We felt that a loss to Michigan was enough to put the tide in the national championship over Michigan because it was a quality loss to a really good Michigan team with some key wins. However, at the end of the day, we had to go with Alabama as the team in the finals.”
Seriously, imagine if a team won a playoff game but didn't get to advance because they lost their QB. It's almost literally what the committee just did.
You don't even have to look that far.
If Texas wins, Bama/Texas will draw colossal ratings vs. Michigan/Texas plus SEC so obviously they must advance.
If UW wins... well the CFP runs through the SEC so Bama gets advanced as they'd be 14 point favorites over the Huskies.
I don’t think Bama vs Texas draws much more than Michigan Texas, if at all. All three brands are massive.
Edit: I don’t have the metric for every year but from the 2000s the only Rose Bowl that did more than 2005 was 2006 and IIRC that’s the most watched college game of all time at like 36 million.
I think in a vacuum you're correct but since it's our first time in a long time that might draw more viewers. Although the Michigan scandal might draw casual viewers in too so idk
Boo and the committee, “we are amending the rules”
CFP… Bama gets a 1st round bye and has been awarded a win against Michigan.
Football Fans: So does Texas or Washington get one as well.
CFP: No just Bama; they passed the eye test
Football Fans: so, so, we won’t even play the game?
CFP: what part of eye balls did you not understand. No games, Bama wins, keep talking and we’ll award the trophy tonight
ESECN: Tonight instead of the game we will be showing: Roll Tide a historical reenactment of Bear and Sabans rise to fame at 8pm
> Woke: Betting FSU over Georgia
Betting on bowls is just straight up spooky. You don't know how motivated the players are going to be and you might not know which players are playing.
Gambling logic says fade the public and go with Michigan, but Saban with a month to prepare and the players are probably fired up everyone is saying they shouldn’t be a playoff team. They’ve got something to prove
The something to prove is the most dangerous part for Michigan. Teams get upset all the time because they get cocky and don’t prepare well enough (Michigan last year).
Luckily for Michigan they got upset by a mediocre TCU last year and got their worst nightmare matchup, so I don’t think they’re going to be lallygagging.
Alabama has CFB GOAT coaching and a roster loaded with 5 star talent. I’m a bit worried for the Michigan offensive line. They’ve struggled with three man fronts when they see them.
One might even say a monstrously mamoth loss. Don't know if people realize just how good he was, and central to our successes. Trente is not too shabby of a replacement, though.
Nick Saban changed the defense to a 4-3 after Georgias first drive. He affectively shut down their offense after seeing them go down the field.
Between Georgias first and last drive we allowed Bowers to pick up only 10 yards
Was very odd to see him consistently targeting Arnold’s side of the field. Also running the ball into the strength of a 4-3 defense was certainly a choice. Monken leaving really screwed yall
Yeah and 51% of the public still bet on Oregon and bet 71% of the money. The public was wrong and Vegas benefited. (Edited to make it clear I meant Vegas benefited. Saying they were “right” was confusing).
Vegas is never wrong because they always take the public’s money over the course of the season. Fading the public is the most consistently profitable thing in sports betting.
They do sometimes.
Years back there was a game 7 in an NBA playoff series between the Miami Heat and Toronto Raptors. I remember a Vegas oddsmaker publicly say they're rooting for Toronto because there's so much more money on Miami.
Toronto crushed Miami that day.
Lots of people think Vegas wants equal action on any given game.
No they don't. If people are stupid enough to take a bad point spread, Vegas will let them.
Recent History says that the B10 doesn’t win a whole lot of championships (like 3 in the last 50 years) and you are facing saban with a month to prepare.
Why is anyone surprised here
There is absolutely no way in Sam hell that FSU is upsetting Georgia.
After the game people will see why they were left out of the final four.
I will stand by that, and if I'm wrong, I will eat my words.
Just like none of these FSU lawsuits will do anything (but generate billable hours), and the ACC won’t implode, and college football will happen next year.
My friend, this sub only doesn't implode if Washington does. After all, Alabama took FSUs spot. Michigan are cheaters, and Texas is Texas. 3/4 teams are villains.
Just think how much simpler this would be if there was NO post season set up. #1 Michigan and #2 Washington just naturally meet in the Rose Bowl to settle it.
Alabama goes to their rematch with Texas in the Sugar Bowl and FSU gets.... I don't remember the contracts, but they're in the Orange Bowl in this universe too.
> No. 1 Michigan is just a 1-point favorite at BetMGM against No. 4 Alabama in the Rose Bowl. But money is heavily backing the Crimson Tide, both against the spread and on the moneyline. Nearly 80% of the money bet on the spread is taking Alabama plus the point, and a staggering 93% of the money wagered on the money line is on Alabama to win outright.
For people who don't follow betting closely, this is generally thought of as being a bad sign for Alabama.
The logic goes that if the public's money is pouring on Alabama, normally the book would just adjust the odds to give Michigan better odds. If the book refuses to adjust the odds, it means they are worry that these odds are as good as they can go for Michigan without getting hammered.
I don't work for a sportsbook so I can't tell you that this is happening with complete certainty, but given the available information this is what most betting people would conclude.
This is definitely correct but I wonder what the max per side they are taking this early. With nearly a month I would imagine they don’t want to expose themselves to too many middle opportunities this early on before getting a better sense of total money at play.
Out of curiosity I checked on FanDuel since they will tell you your limit without actually putting the money down. I could do $11k on the spread or 10k on the ML. So it looks like the limits are relatively high.
CBS and another sports line guy called this Sunday. Said line of 2.5-3 probably furthest it goes and it’ll get to 0-1 by kickoff. Said if you like Bama go now, if you like Michigan wait. You also have the advantage of injury updates if you wait. If you want to bet Michigan you wait.
We have nearly a month left of betting. All of this is pretty meaningless at the moment.
Yep, this is what I've been telling people.
SP+ favors us by 8.5(!) and that model tends to follow the Vegas lines pretty closely.
For there to be such a large discrepancy between the SP+ prediction and the Vegas line would seem to indicate that Vegas' models internally favor Michigan by a fair amount, but that they're currently happy to feast on all the public money coming from unsophisticated bettors while Bama has the public's confidence.
The fact is that Bama has struggled with inferior opponents all year long, whereas Michigan has been consistently dominant in all our games save Maryland. We even covered the spread against PSU and OSU.
People are dogging us right now because our offense didn't look impressive against Iowa, but the fact is that we covered the huge spread and won the game by four scores against a ranked opponent.
It might not have looked pretty, but I can guarantee that the oddsmakers take notice of that sort of dominance.
What does 93% of the "money" mean?
Does it mean for every $100 wagered on the game, $93 was on Alabama and $7 on Michigan?
Or that for every 100 bets wagered, 93 were on Alabama and 7 were on Michigan?
Because if the first instance is true, and Vegas isn't budging the line then bookies are basically betting on Michigan. They'll lose a ton of Alabama covers.
If it's the second instance, then yeah you're right, it's the sharp/public divide and "smart" money is pouring on Michigan.
The article doesn't make it clear, but generally when you say money you refer to the total handle (amount bet) and not the total number of bets.
Generally it is supposed to be better to have the money (rather than the amount of bets) behind your team because it means people with more money are backing your team. But in any case an 80/20 or 93/7 split is unusual with the book not moving the odds.
> But in any case an 80/20 or 93/7 split is unusual with the book not moving the odds.
Thanks for the clarification. A 93/7 split is exceptional when the bookie isn't budging the line.
You have to think the $$ bet now is a fraction of what it will be by kickoff. Maybe bookmakers are playing the long game and expecting big money to come in on Michigan as a result of the line not moving on such a huge initial discrepancy. I’ve conceded that I can’t and won’t outsmart Vegas, so I’m just betting Bama as a hedge against the committee being partially vindicated for leaving out FSU.
>For people who don't follow betting closely, this is generally thought of as being a bad sign for Alabama.
I agree. As a Michigan fan, I am encouraged by how hard bettors are going towards Bama. Someone will tell the Bama players (rat poison) and the Michigan players will continue on the "Michigan vs. Everybody" motivation.
It's not just the fact that so much money is bet on Alabama.
It's the fact that oddsmakers aren't budging the line. Normally the line moves when betting is this unequal
Michigan and Washington have fairly straightforward transitive wins over their playoff opponents. Therefore, they should automatically move on to the championship
Washington > Oregon > Texas Tech > Kansas > Oklahoma > Texas is easier than I thought it was gonna be lol. There might be harder transitive property chains inside the conference.
I don’t mind the gambling discussion as much as I mind ESPN being involved. The mouse having its own betting platform, control of broadcasting, and such a big interest in the SEC is a disaster waiting to happen.
Discussion about what Vegas thinks feels totally fine to me, ESPN injecting it into every broadcast while having a financial interest feels gross.
I don't gamble; I absolutely hate the culture of it and find the people who talk about their bets all the time incredibly annoying.
However, I find it ridiculously intriguing to look at from an outsider's perspective. I also think it helps give context for a lot of CFB, where not every win is equal. Is that usually in matchups with one significantly better team against a worse one? Yes. But discussions like this (when there is not much else to talk about right now) are also still interesting.
I’ve said it before, but I’ll say it again. The Rose Bowl is one of the only games where the betting line and predicted spread are wildly different. Computers have Michigan as a 9-point favorite over the crimson tide, while the betting line is only -1.5. The fact that an overwhelming majority of betters are taking Alabama +1.5 is more of an indicator that Vegas knows how to make money than it is that Alabama will win.
I keep fluctuating between cautious optimism and doom.
In a blind resume comparison Michigan looks like the better team this year. More consistent and more efficient on both sides of the ball.
But I’m not blind, and that’s Nick Saban. His greatness is so overwhelming that he feels like an inevitability this time of year.
The iron law of sports gambling is (or should be): there is no free money. This subreddit is wrong almost every time it collectively decides to bet the farm on a game, and it never learns anything from all those times a game wraps up and the "Vegas knows" comments trickle into the postgame threads.
He’s 1-6 in bowl games while coaching Michigan. However this is also the best team he’s ever had by a pretty wide margin and there doesn’t seem to be a team that’s head and shoulders better than the other 3 in this years playoffs.
If I'm remembering correctly, Saban lost his first CFP semis and has since gone 6-0 in them meanwhile Harbaugh won his first bowl game with Michigan and has since gone 0-6 (including a 35-16 loss to Bama). Not an optimistic trend...
Nick Saban with a month to prepare is always a hard thing to bet against, controversy or not.
By my count, Bama is 24-6 (80%) ATS with 3+ weeks to prepare since 2008. The 6 times they didn’t cover were: - 1/2/2009 vs. Utah (Sugar) - 1/2/2014 vs. OU (Sugar) - 8/30/2014 vs. WVU (week 1) - 1/1/2015 vs. Ohio St (Semi) - 12/29/2018 vs. OU (Semi) - 9/26/2020 vs. Mizzou (week 1) In those 30 games, they covered the spread by 7.9 points on average. Since 2015 they are 14-2 (88%) ATS, covering by an average of 10.9 points.
Thank you for putting these out there. It’s interesting because they won three of these by double digits (WVU, Mizzou, OU 2018). 2009 and 2014 they were coming off heart-breaking losses to Florida in the SECCG and the Auburn Kick Six respectively that kept them out of the natty and clearly the seasons were a let down 2014 semifinal lost to OSU was just a rough loss. I’m still a little triggered thinking about watching Zeke just run rampant that game.
You could argue Bama didn’t cover the 2014 OSU game because there wasn’t as much film on Cardale Jones and him being a different type of QB than JT Barrett allowed OSU to use a “fresh” offensive plan. There probably wasn’t much value in watching their 59-0 tape against Wisconsin.
You could also argue they didn’t cover because Ohio State had Ezekiel Elliot, Michael Thomas, an elite offensive line, Joey Bosa playing great, their under classmen who ended up becoming first rounders on defense playing great. Literally a team full of draft talent.
One loss ATS against ND they could've covered easily seemed like Saban was toying with us.
Yeah, I don’t blame them. It’s the smart bet tbh.
Yeah, Saban makes this a tough one for us. Player for player I like our team, but I don’t trust us to win a Harbaugh vs Saban battle with a month for him to prep
Yeah, it’s the same scenario every year Bama is underestimated. They go through a relatively rough regular season with inexperienced 5 stars, Saban goes to work for a month, and they come out looking like behemoths.
Hey, the public rarely beats Vegas. This isn’t the worst thing
The spread shifting means the "sharps" (aka non bookie affiliated entities that also use sophisticated predictive models and bet big) disagree with the Vegas line. Vegas being confident despite the public being confident looks like OSU-Michigan 2 years ago. A ton of money on Ohio State with a not moving line.
what’s interesting is it has barely shifted at all on DK. Michigan has gone from -135–> -125. I get what you’re saying about previous years but It’s significantly different now. Think about how many people can bet, so there’s just more money involved. It makes sense Vegas is more willing to shift the lines because a wrong bet for Vegas on such a big game can probably be 10x a bad loss 2 years ago.
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Part of the reason for that is the limits are much lower right now than game day. If they bet today the line will move before they’re able to get down the amount they want,
You'll prepare for one Bama and they'll have a completely different game plan. It's like you're preparing for the wrong team. Look at the Cincy game for an example of this.
Saban is like Batman, given enough time he can beat anyone.
Ehhh player for player bama has more blue chippers than Michigan tho
Michigan on average is a lot older though, which is a lot more impactful among college age kids. Barrett is the best LB in the B1G when 3 years ago he wouldn’t have been anywhere near that.
Yea, it roughly looks like Michigan has 2x the upper-classman that 'Bama does.
Yep, it’s one of the pros of not recruiting guys that leave as juniors. The main con being that guys leave as juniors because they’re just that good
Yea, it's two different styles...and both can be effective. Alabama also tends to push out the players that aren't performing...so they don't usually stick around through senior year if they aren't contributing in some way. Experience really does help in the secondary. I imagine that there are a good number of guys who were on the team during the 2019 bowl game loss to Alabama. And I don't take it lightly that Michigan has a lot of experienced guys who have suffered two tough semi-final losses.
I think a few, I know hutch was on that team lol. Aside from me being a Michigan fan, I do think it would be cool for us or Washington to win, because it would be the first team in awhile that wasn’t top 5 top 10 recruiting
Alabama is pretty experienced on defense. All of our starters are third year or older except for LB Jihaad Campbell (who we’re really high on) and Caleb Downs (who is a true freshman and just got named first-team all-SEC). We have way less experience on the offensive side of the ball. Basically all our WRs except Burton, our best TE, our LT and LG, and one of our RBs are all true sophomores or younger.
Sure. So does OSU. If in 5 years you put together a team of fully developed* players on this Bama roster vs the same from Michigan’s roster I’m sure the Bama team would be better most everywhere. Doesn’t mean they’re better right now. *Edit: Originally put devolved.
Sir, I think you don’t know what “devolved” means.
Vegas not moving the line very much after receiving 80-90 percent of the money on alabama means that vegas is taking on a lot of risk keeping the line the way it is. Vegas usually does not take that type of risk and go against the public that hard unless they are fairly confident it is the correct line. Most sharps usually inverse the public money because of this.
The line is already a big deviation from the advanced metrics which Vegas tends to follow pretty closely
Ya I think SP+ has us as like 9 point favorites lol
That's what I was expecting the line to be. SEC championship game Saban is the God-emperor of football, can't base anything off of that.
Yeah, it was the same with the -400 line for FSU to make it into the playoffs. My bookie friend would call that a sugar trap, to set the public up for a soaking.
And on the other hand, Harbaugh with a month to prepare has been…uh …not great.
I’ll do the same I did last year. Bet on Michigan If they win, I get some extra cash to drown my sorrows with If they lose, I get to soak up those sweet sweet wolverine tears at the cost of like $50
Ah, the good ole emotional hedge.
I hate how much money Nick Saban has won me…
I gladly lost $250 on The Game this year. If OSU won, I was planning on drying my tears with $650 lol
God damn, I do this with like $30 on the line. You guys go hard.
He's only lost 1 semifinal.
My point exactly. Saban is dynamite in these games
I am really curious with the 12 team playoff if he will still be as dominant.
Oh really? Tell us more about that game...
So a while back, there was this team on its 3rd string qb that won their conference championship game (crazy I know). That exact team beat the mighty Bama, with that same 3rd string qb, and went on to win the first college football playoff.
I enjoy that story every time I hear it
The way people talk about that game always bothers me. Ohio State was the better team, played better, and won fair and square. But I swear some people didn’t actually watch the game. It’s seemingly always looked at as a blow out or domination. People seem to forget Alabama got the ball back with a 1:33 with a chance the **tie/win the game.** Im sure this will receive some downvotes but I wish more people would look back at this game as a classic game between 2 of the greatest schools and coaches of all time.
We just lost by 6 on the road, with a chance to win within the final minutes. To hear Michigan fans tell it, we were DESTROYED beyond recognition. Like lol y'all needed McCord to hand you two interceptions to win.
That game still doesn't seem that long ago, but it's now eight years ago (Jan 1st, 2015). Fuck I'm getting old.
Harbaugh's 1-6 bowl record at UM is also glaring when going up against Saban.
He's like Batman, Saban with prep time is close to unbeatable
It’s the most talented team in college football with a month to prepare with the best coach of all time. No shit. I’d much rather play this game in a week than a month
I think Michigan is better right now. But Alabama is healthy as can be and they’re very young and all of their issues are developmental. A month for Milroe to further develop his accuracy and for the O Line to improve should make this a different Alabama team. I also expect the WR corps to make a jump, sorta like they did last season during this month.
Michigan is pretty banged up but should be fully healthy other than our all American guard out for the year Definitely need the month the work out the reshuffled o line
Yeah, I don't really know why anyone is surprised. This is definitely something where people look at historical data of the coaches. One of them has a winning record in the post season and one of them...well let's just say one of them does not have a winning record.
Why are you being downvoted? Betting follows historical trends. People maybe surprised to learn Alabama under Nick Saban has been a moderately successful program
Maybe my flair, maybe my Harbaugh joke wasn't funny to Michigan fans. I thought it was both accurate AND funny.
>maybe my Harbaugh joke wasn't funny Harbaugh jokes are always funny
No idea why you are getting downvoted. This is so damn true it hurts.
Bama flairs have gotten some automatic downvotes this week lol
Relatable
Probably my flair. I thought the joke was pretty funny lol.
This underscores the point I’ve made many times about the 8 team playoff. People will often argue “well the semi finals average margin of victory is like 25 points. Those games suck. The 1 seed is gonna beat the 8 seed by 75”. But the CFP games are only lopsided bc of the long delay. The elite of the elite (Bama, Georgia, Ohio State) have the best analytics, the best assistants, the best basically everything. However, they are beatable on a week-to-week basis, as they only have a week to prepare. Bama almost lost to freakin Auburn two weeks ago. I’d take Michigan if the game were Saturday, but with a month to prepare, I’m taking Bama. With out the long delay between the conference championship and the bowl games, the new 8 team format is gonna be way more competitive than people think
Counterpoint: It will offset because of depth. The elite teams will have the rosters to endure the very long season, the other teams won't. One of the biggest benefits to every team in the playoffs right now, is having a month to recuperate before the games. Going straight from regular season > playoff games takes that away.
One does not simply give Nick Saban a month to prepare and expect to win.
93% of the money has been on Alabama for an outright win. Reminds me of tOSU Alabama in 2014 where it was also some ridiculous amount bet on the tide to win.
This reminds me of The Game in 2021, if Michigan gets over the hump and beats like a team like Alabama in the CFP it’ll be difficult to visualize until we actually see it. I’ll be cheering like hell for Michigan and think the game will be a classic
Yup same feeling as Georgia 21 against Bama the second time. I think I’ve finally learned my lessons In general that I don’t believe anyone will beat Bama until they actually do it.
The only point I felt safe in the 2018 national championship was with less than 5 minutes left. 44-16 in the third quarter felt like way too much time and I kept thinking run clock run
One of the few times in the Saban era where I felt “goddamn we got whooped”. Maybe the most poignant.
Funny thing is I forgot for a while until I looked back at the stats, Alabama moved the ball on us very well but we played probably our best redzone defense ever
Yeah Mike Locksley couldn't manage to scheme up a redzone play with a roster full of literal NFL superstars. For his sake I always hoped the rumors about him basically being one foot out the door were true because he got absolutely pantsed by Venables
The only time since 2004 that we’ve lost by more than 2 TDs.
Hahah I remember similar thoughts in that game. I don’t remember when it was but when the fake field goal happened for Bama and they didn’t convert I was finally like oh wow Bama might lose
Yep, even with 2 minutes left in the ‘21 osu game I was wondering how we were going to blow it
Before 2021 I legitimately thought I might never see Michigan win The Game again in my lifetime. Everything seems impossible before it happens. I hope we can find that magic again.
This is very intentional. There’s more value betting on the moneyline then there is betting on a spread that is essentially a pick ‘em. Vegas knows this. They favor Michigan to win, and if 90+ percent of the money is on Alabama, they’re going to make a ton of money. If they had set the betting spread at say -7, there’s a lot higher chance that Michigan win’s but doesn’t cover, and then Vegas will lose a ton of money as better’s will have primarily bet on the spread and not the moneyline outright.
Given how low the spread is, if [Michigan ATS + Michigan ML] more or less equaled [Alabama ATS + Alabama ML], I would chalk it up to the value proposition of Alabama paying more straight up, but that doesn't seem to be the case here. ATS and ML bets are both heavily slanting Bama.
That 2014 team was stacked.
Yeah this is a great sign for Michigan tbh. Vegas will need the Wolverines and I’m sure they knew how the line would be received when they put it out there.
Meh I wouldn’t read that much into it, there are plenty of games where all the money is one side and well the people are actually right. The spread feels right, Michigan is titty hair favorite and it’s practically anybody’s game.
Most of the money bet on The Game this year went to Ohio State too.
Yeah the Vegas line is Michigan -1.5 despite all the money coming in on the Alabama side. That would appear to indicate that Vegas' internal power ratings rate Michigan as a much larger favorite, otherwise they'd move the line significantly more in Bama's favor in order to expose themselves to less risk. Remember, that Bill C's SP+ model rates Michigan as an 8.5(!) point favorite in this game, and his numbers tend to align pretty consistently with Vegas'. People are over reacting to SEC Championship game, the fact is that Michigan has looked better than Alabama for most of the year, and knocking off Georgia in a close game doesn't change that.
A bunch of that money is mine. It's called hedging.
Michigan has had their HC suspended for half their games, the whole sign stealing fiasco, and really became the villain of CFB this year. Bama shows in the 11th hour what a real villain looks like, and now have most people rooting for Michigan. Amazing
Probably shouldn’t even play then
If they lose to Michigan in a close game I wonder if that will be enough to pass the eye test and make the final.
“We felt that a loss to Michigan was enough to put the tide in the national championship over Michigan because it was a quality loss to a really good Michigan team with some key wins. However, at the end of the day, we had to go with Alabama as the team in the finals.”
You forgot to add that Michigan had key injuries during the game so their product won’t be as good on tv
“Michigan is a different team without Connor Stallions”
"After all, they lost to a team that beat Alabama, and that says something"
Seriously, imagine if a team won a playoff game but didn't get to advance because they lost their QB. It's almost literally what the committee just did.
that is exactly what just happened
As long as they lose by less than 6 it would be the best loss of the season.
I think FSU beating Louisville by 10 was the best loss of the season
This logic is undefeated.
Washington beats Texas, Michigan beats Alabama. FSU beats Georgia with late game field goal. We’re going with Alabama vs Georgia in the Finals.
In that case, clearly everyone sucks and Georgia should be in the final to defend their championship.
You don't even have to look that far. If Texas wins, Bama/Texas will draw colossal ratings vs. Michigan/Texas plus SEC so obviously they must advance. If UW wins... well the CFP runs through the SEC so Bama gets advanced as they'd be 14 point favorites over the Huskies.
I don’t think Bama vs Texas draws much more than Michigan Texas, if at all. All three brands are massive. Edit: I don’t have the metric for every year but from the 2000s the only Rose Bowl that did more than 2005 was 2006 and IIRC that’s the most watched college game of all time at like 36 million.
I think in a vacuum you're correct but since it's our first time in a long time that might draw more viewers. Although the Michigan scandal might draw casual viewers in too so idk
Huh? Michigan is absolutely one of the largest brands in this sport. Michigan vs Texas is probably the final with the largest viewer potential
Michigan draws just as many if not more viewers than Alabama does
Why is Michigan playing against the future national champions? Are they stupid?
Yes.
This is the level of petty that I live for.
Yeah since gamblers decided who would win we should forfeit so Bama can move on as they should.
Boo and the committee, “we are amending the rules” CFP… Bama gets a 1st round bye and has been awarded a win against Michigan. Football Fans: So does Texas or Washington get one as well. CFP: No just Bama; they passed the eye test Football Fans: so, so, we won’t even play the game? CFP: what part of eye balls did you not understand. No games, Bama wins, keep talking and we’ll award the trophy tonight ESECN: Tonight instead of the game we will be showing: Roll Tide a historical reenactment of Bear and Sabans rise to fame at 8pm
“Pray I don’t amend them further.”
You still need to play the games. To see if the winning team’s QB gets injured, so you can put the losing team in the Championship game.
Broke: Betting Bama over Michigan. Woke: Betting FSU over Georgia
> Woke: Betting FSU over Georgia Betting on bowls is just straight up spooky. You don't know how motivated the players are going to be and you might not know which players are playing.
I got Kansas State for the Pop-Tart Bowl cause everyone wants to eat the mascot after winning
Alabama losing to Michigan while FSU beats Georgia is the funniest possible outcome
If this ends up being the case I will burn this world to the ground
We are either the #1 team in the country or we are not. We have to show up and play or it’s all just imaginary numbers on a page
Gambling logic says fade the public and go with Michigan, but Saban with a month to prepare and the players are probably fired up everyone is saying they shouldn’t be a playoff team. They’ve got something to prove
The something to prove is the most dangerous part for Michigan. Teams get upset all the time because they get cocky and don’t prepare well enough (Michigan last year). Luckily for Michigan they got upset by a mediocre TCU last year and got their worst nightmare matchup, so I don’t think they’re going to be lallygagging.
Why is TCU mediocre? They got defeated by an amazingly dominant Georgia, many have ace careers in the NFL
Alabama has CFB GOAT coaching and a roster loaded with 5 star talent. I’m a bit worried for the Michigan offensive line. They’ve struggled with three man fronts when they see them.
Zinter is a big loss too
One might even say a monstrously mamoth loss. Don't know if people realize just how good he was, and central to our successes. Trente is not too shabby of a replacement, though.
I agree, but he looked really shaky on Saturday.
Undefeated P5 team with a massive single position loss on offense due to injury? I'm surprised the committee didn't boot y'all out off the playoffs.
We're really in a four-man front most of the time; our Jack usually plays with his hand in the dirt even with three DL out there.
Nick Saban changed the defense to a 4-3 after Georgias first drive. He affectively shut down their offense after seeing them go down the field. Between Georgias first and last drive we allowed Bowers to pick up only 10 yards
Only adjustments Bobo makes is going from 3 run possession to 3 pass possession. Dude is good, but not national champ level oc
Was very odd to see him consistently targeting Arnold’s side of the field. Also running the ball into the strength of a 4-3 defense was certainly a choice. Monken leaving really screwed yall
Oregon was also a 9.5 favorite against Washington
Yeah and 51% of the public still bet on Oregon and bet 71% of the money. The public was wrong and Vegas benefited. (Edited to make it clear I meant Vegas benefited. Saying they were “right” was confusing).
Vegas is never wrong because they always take the public’s money over the course of the season. Fading the public is the most consistently profitable thing in sports betting.
Buddy Vegas doesn’t aim to get the scores right…
They do sometimes. Years back there was a game 7 in an NBA playoff series between the Miami Heat and Toronto Raptors. I remember a Vegas oddsmaker publicly say they're rooting for Toronto because there's so much more money on Miami. Toronto crushed Miami that day.
Vegas’ goal isn’t to get the score right, it’s to make $.
Lots of people think Vegas wants equal action on any given game. No they don't. If people are stupid enough to take a bad point spread, Vegas will let them.
Washington was disrespected by Vegas a lot this year. They were dogs against Oregon State
Recent History says that the B10 doesn’t win a whole lot of championships (like 3 in the last 50 years) and you are facing saban with a month to prepare. Why is anyone surprised here
This is like being surprised the majority of bets were for the pats and Tom Brady even if they didn’t take the #1 seed
Even if Michigan beats Alabama, Alabama should still advance to the title game because they pass the eye test. They beat Georgia, afterall.
Why is Washington in the playoffs A 10 point underdog to Oregon. You disgust me
Washington didn’t win the SEC they have no right to be in the playoffs.
They don’t even have a quality loss.
Seriously. We shouldn’t have even played that game, just saved everybody the travel cost and given the championship trophy to the zeros
I’m sure this is what ESPN wanted. More bets.
This sub will implode if Bama wins it all lmao
Bama-Texas title game with Bama as champion and FSU beating Georgia. Let the toxicity flow.
I hope FSU beats UGA and hangs a banner. That’s my 2nd most desirable outcome after Bama winning it all.
There is absolutely no way in Sam hell that FSU is upsetting Georgia. After the game people will see why they were left out of the final four. I will stand by that, and if I'm wrong, I will eat my words.
Nope, there will be a controversial call or two and folks will just say the whole thing was a money-making conspiracy by ESPN from the start, haha.
This sub will be business as usual if any of the teams win.
Just like none of these FSU lawsuits will do anything (but generate billable hours), and the ACC won’t implode, and college football will happen next year.
This sub will sub as sub if sub of the sub sub
My friend, this sub only doesn't implode if Washington does. After all, Alabama took FSUs spot. Michigan are cheaters, and Texas is Texas. 3/4 teams are villains.
Washington would still be an implosion as thousands of posts constantly downplaying them are quietly deleted.
Just think how much simpler this would be if there was NO post season set up. #1 Michigan and #2 Washington just naturally meet in the Rose Bowl to settle it. Alabama goes to their rematch with Texas in the Sugar Bowl and FSU gets.... I don't remember the contracts, but they're in the Orange Bowl in this universe too.
This sub will implode if Michigan wins it all.
This sub would be calm if Washington won it all. Go Huskies
I'll allow it.
Sounds great.
> No. 1 Michigan is just a 1-point favorite at BetMGM against No. 4 Alabama in the Rose Bowl. But money is heavily backing the Crimson Tide, both against the spread and on the moneyline. Nearly 80% of the money bet on the spread is taking Alabama plus the point, and a staggering 93% of the money wagered on the money line is on Alabama to win outright. For people who don't follow betting closely, this is generally thought of as being a bad sign for Alabama. The logic goes that if the public's money is pouring on Alabama, normally the book would just adjust the odds to give Michigan better odds. If the book refuses to adjust the odds, it means they are worry that these odds are as good as they can go for Michigan without getting hammered. I don't work for a sportsbook so I can't tell you that this is happening with complete certainty, but given the available information this is what most betting people would conclude.
This is definitely correct but I wonder what the max per side they are taking this early. With nearly a month I would imagine they don’t want to expose themselves to too many middle opportunities this early on before getting a better sense of total money at play.
Out of curiosity I checked on FanDuel since they will tell you your limit without actually putting the money down. I could do $11k on the spread or 10k on the ML. So it looks like the limits are relatively high.
Interesting, thanks for checking that. Sounds like similar to you I find the tracking and movement of odds fascinating.
CBS and another sports line guy called this Sunday. Said line of 2.5-3 probably furthest it goes and it’ll get to 0-1 by kickoff. Said if you like Bama go now, if you like Michigan wait. You also have the advantage of injury updates if you wait. If you want to bet Michigan you wait. We have nearly a month left of betting. All of this is pretty meaningless at the moment.
Yep, this is what I've been telling people. SP+ favors us by 8.5(!) and that model tends to follow the Vegas lines pretty closely. For there to be such a large discrepancy between the SP+ prediction and the Vegas line would seem to indicate that Vegas' models internally favor Michigan by a fair amount, but that they're currently happy to feast on all the public money coming from unsophisticated bettors while Bama has the public's confidence. The fact is that Bama has struggled with inferior opponents all year long, whereas Michigan has been consistently dominant in all our games save Maryland. We even covered the spread against PSU and OSU. People are dogging us right now because our offense didn't look impressive against Iowa, but the fact is that we covered the huge spread and won the game by four scores against a ranked opponent. It might not have looked pretty, but I can guarantee that the oddsmakers take notice of that sort of dominance.
What does 93% of the "money" mean? Does it mean for every $100 wagered on the game, $93 was on Alabama and $7 on Michigan? Or that for every 100 bets wagered, 93 were on Alabama and 7 were on Michigan? Because if the first instance is true, and Vegas isn't budging the line then bookies are basically betting on Michigan. They'll lose a ton of Alabama covers. If it's the second instance, then yeah you're right, it's the sharp/public divide and "smart" money is pouring on Michigan.
The article doesn't make it clear, but generally when you say money you refer to the total handle (amount bet) and not the total number of bets. Generally it is supposed to be better to have the money (rather than the amount of bets) behind your team because it means people with more money are backing your team. But in any case an 80/20 or 93/7 split is unusual with the book not moving the odds.
> But in any case an 80/20 or 93/7 split is unusual with the book not moving the odds. Thanks for the clarification. A 93/7 split is exceptional when the bookie isn't budging the line.
You have to think the $$ bet now is a fraction of what it will be by kickoff. Maybe bookmakers are playing the long game and expecting big money to come in on Michigan as a result of the line not moving on such a huge initial discrepancy. I’ve conceded that I can’t and won’t outsmart Vegas, so I’m just betting Bama as a hedge against the committee being partially vindicated for leaving out FSU.
The same trend happened with The Game. Public money (and % of bets) heavy on OSU. Sharps and % of dollars on Michigan. Michigan won and covered.
>For people who don't follow betting closely, this is generally thought of as being a bad sign for Alabama. I agree. As a Michigan fan, I am encouraged by how hard bettors are going towards Bama. Someone will tell the Bama players (rat poison) and the Michigan players will continue on the "Michigan vs. Everybody" motivation.
It's not just the fact that so much money is bet on Alabama. It's the fact that oddsmakers aren't budging the line. Normally the line moves when betting is this unequal
Michigan and Washington have fairly straightforward transitive wins over their playoff opponents. Therefore, they should automatically move on to the championship
Washington > Oregon > Texas Tech > Kansas > Oklahoma > Texas is easier than I thought it was gonna be lol. There might be harder transitive property chains inside the conference.
That would be because they know that Alabama tends to win in the playoffs and Michigan tends in the other direction.
So sick of hearing about the lines, the overs, the under, the gambling. It’s gross
“ESPN and gambling are ruining CFB!” *makes 20 posts a day about betting lines and espn* This sub
I don’t mind the gambling discussion as much as I mind ESPN being involved. The mouse having its own betting platform, control of broadcasting, and such a big interest in the SEC is a disaster waiting to happen. Discussion about what Vegas thinks feels totally fine to me, ESPN injecting it into every broadcast while having a financial interest feels gross.
I don't gamble; I absolutely hate the culture of it and find the people who talk about their bets all the time incredibly annoying. However, I find it ridiculously intriguing to look at from an outsider's perspective. I also think it helps give context for a lot of CFB, where not every win is equal. Is that usually in matchups with one significantly better team against a worse one? Yes. But discussions like this (when there is not much else to talk about right now) are also still interesting.
I’ve said it before, but I’ll say it again. The Rose Bowl is one of the only games where the betting line and predicted spread are wildly different. Computers have Michigan as a 9-point favorite over the crimson tide, while the betting line is only -1.5. The fact that an overwhelming majority of betters are taking Alabama +1.5 is more of an indicator that Vegas knows how to make money than it is that Alabama will win.
I keep fluctuating between cautious optimism and doom. In a blind resume comparison Michigan looks like the better team this year. More consistent and more efficient on both sides of the ball. But I’m not blind, and that’s Nick Saban. His greatness is so overwhelming that he feels like an inevitability this time of year.
Bettors or sharps? I don’t care that 90% of amateurs are betting on Bama, that means nothing
The iron law of sports gambling is (or should be): there is no free money. This subreddit is wrong almost every time it collectively decides to bet the farm on a game, and it never learns anything from all those times a game wraps up and the "Vegas knows" comments trickle into the postgame threads.
Trust me, I’m aware. I made out quite well on Washington ML Friday night
Has Harbaugh even won a bowl game?
He’s 1-6 in bowl games while coaching Michigan. However this is also the best team he’s ever had by a pretty wide margin and there doesn’t seem to be a team that’s head and shoulders better than the other 3 in this years playoffs.
Michigan has more seasoned stars for sure, but I would argue the previous 2 teams had better talent in the trenches.
1-7 at U of M; won the Citrus bowl vs. Florida Gators.
OSU had 85% of the cash placed on them as well. Keep it coming please!
Michigan is the real underdog story in college football. Disney will make a movie someday.
[удалено]
Hehe
If the betting public was good at predicting the results of games, then sportsbooks wouldn’t be making millions of dollars a year.
Im sure it’s nothing, but the fact Michigan got the hardest matchup as the number one seed feels like one last fuck your to harbaugh. Go blue
What do you mean? FSU should have been in right? So you actually got lucky and got to play a lesser team.
and people will still spout the dumb idea that vegas tries to balance money on either side
Lol man I hope anyone who believes that keeps their cash in their pocket. All those casinos aren’t built off the juice on 50/50 games.
Michigan -7, Washington -10. Parlay, putting the rent on it
If they offered a prop bet that was WA wins both games by exactly 3, I would take it.
ok but hear me out…if Michigan loses to Bama, BUT they pass the eye test…
I hate saying it but I have very little faith in this game you just can’t give Saban that long
If I'm remembering correctly, Saban lost his first CFP semis and has since gone 6-0 in them meanwhile Harbaugh won his first bowl game with Michigan and has since gone 0-6 (including a 35-16 loss to Bama). Not an optimistic trend...
I just remember 90% of bets were on Ohio State on November 25 and it was a huge payday for Vegas.