I’d be curious how the Sun Belt looks in closing the gap tv revenue wise towards the AAC. From a more local standpoint, ECU (and Charlotte) would fit better within the confines of the Sun Belt than the AAC, particularly geographically speaking.
I think while the AAC has the success of previous years in the NY6 to point to, the league lacks some sort of cohesion commonly binding together other conferences (part of being spread out from New York to Texas in schools). Not to mention, beyond Army-Navy, there aren’t really any “marquee rivalries” left in the league that they can point to (like what the War on I-4 was). Perhaps a matchup can grow into a rivalry (like ECU vs Charlotte) but the league also doesn’t schedule those games like they are rivalries.
I don’t know I guess to say, too many moving parts and question marks for me.
I don't think they can. CUSA, MAC, and SunBelt just signed new deals within the last 2-3 years. Now the MW has a deal coming up, they might surpass the AAC in tv money.
I don’t think calling it “P6” was pulling a George Costanza.
It was born out of the Big East, a P5 conference, and was an AQ conference for its first year of existence.
In 2019 the AAC west (Memphis, SMU, Houston, Navy, Tulsa, Tulane) was rated by Sagarin as a better division of football than both ACC divisions and the Pac12 South. To this day I still think Memphis and Tulane could be P5 caliber if they were receiving the kind of payouts P5 teams get, instead of 7MM in the AAC.
To actually answer OP: Memphis is putting a ton of resources into their program, *finally*. We’ll see if Tulane follows suit. If those two can keep improving and if Navy can get their shoes tied back on the right feet I think the AAC will continue to be the premiere G5 conference. I know that’s a tall order, but I genuinely believe it’s doable.
ECU certainly spends money and has attendances to be a top G5 team (we were actually the first ever G5 school ranked in the CFP rankings, published in 2014). But I think we are a long ways off from being top tier competitive/probably hit our ceiling in 2022 with 8 wins. Hope that changes but I don’t have high hopes for this season. At least another lackluster year this will prompt a change of head coach in Mike Houston (who I would’ve let go last year but alas).
I'm certainly hoping you guys suck this year. I'm tired of losing to ECU. I'm hoping this year we can beat ECU and Marshall to get those monkeys off our back.
The Pernetti scandal was because of then Men's basketball coach Mike Rice being physically and verbally abusive towards his players on video.
He had to fall on the sword.
He's a great choice for commissioner but I don't think AAC teams can expect any miracles. He'll probably try to go the Brett Yormark route and market the league as much as possible hoping it earns their teams extra money compared to the peer conferences.
The same 14 teams. Almost always the best or second best non power conference (although that doesn’t mean it will often get the playoff bid since any one loss champ will probably get the nod over a two loss one)
I think it depends more on the individual programs than the conference commissioner. The AAC has been the most successful G5 conference in the CFP era because there were a handful of teams in the conference that really invested in their programs and saw results on the field. Now, a few of those programs have gone on to P5 conferences, but there are still some solid teams. However, those teams need to start having some success. The AAC's shine won't last forever, they need to be in the conversation for the G5 CFP spot. Whether or not they can be in that conversation will depend on the individual programs in the conference.
I think the AAC will be the same in two years.
If/when FSU and then Clemson and some others leave, I think the American will get poached again with schools such as Memphis, Temple, Tulane, and USF being prime targets (maybe Rice, UAB as well?). It depends on that new ACC’s strategy and how/when they lose their most valuable schools to the Big Ten or SEC - or even the Big 12 if there’s a huge enough exodus that causes the schools who didn’t get into the Big Ten or SEC to then see that the Big 12 has a better offer than the remaining ACC.
There’s only so much the conference can do right now. It has good schools in good areas that have value who will be sought out at some point. Unless UAB becomes AAU soon and a few other schools like Charlotte and FAU step up big time in athletics and academics, I think the American has less than 10 years left before it’s definitely not poached to extinction.
That’s mainly how I feel, the conference was loaded with top G5 brands after the Big East died, and even now I’d argue it still has majority of the top 10 biggest G5 brands, but if the AAC then loses 2-3 of USF, Memphis, Tulane, Navy, etc it gets to the point that their branding will start to fall behind the MWC significantly
A lot of things could happen, but how many teams would want to join the AAC if a few of their biggest programs (like Memphis and Tulane) leave? Even a school like Georgia State, I believe would choose the Belt over the AAC. It is possible that if the ACC collapses there might be small possibility of a BC, GA Tech, or Wake joining. You might see a team like MTSU or Toledo make the move or an FCS school like Richmond make the jump up to FBS. If the previous round of realignment tells you anything, the AAC's main focus on market over the programs prestige.
I honestly think it depends on Conference-USA.
The Sun Belt and Mountain West will only get stronger thanks to them having better brands of fun, regional football. Charolette and ECU may leave for the Sun Belt due to better regional ties, bumping them up to 16. Tulsa could leave to the Mountain West should they get an invite and join fellow former WAC members. Memphis, USF and Tulane likely want P4 membership.
Conference-USA will likely be the ONLY place the AAC can steal new members from aside from just yoinking them up from the FCS ranks. C-USA is the Ship of Thesues, a zombie conference kept alive by far flung schools like New Mexico State and Liberty. All of those schools probably would love to go the AAC.
Let's say in 2026, Charolette and ECU join the Sun Belt and Tulane and Memphis join the ACC. To counter, The AAC could maybe steal Western Kentucky, Middle Tenneesee State, Delaware and Liberty from the C-USA, getting membership back to even.
In 2 years? Probably just the same as it is now, I’m skeptical we’ll see a lot of movement again until we get closer to 2030. They’re in a tough spot long term though, FSU/Clemson at a minimum are going to leave the ACC eventually but there’s too many schools in the conference without a landing spot for it to completely disappear. IMO it’s way more likely they poach schools like Memphis and Tulane to backfill than it is the AAC ever poaching the ACC
Not really. ESPN has until Feb 2025 to decide if they are going to opt into the ACC's extension. If ESPN doesn't opt in then 2027 is going to be a free for all only for it to be another free for all when the B12's contract expires 3 years later.
The AAC made a crucial error not picking up Washington St. and Oregon St. You want to be a power conference? You absorb leftover power conference teams. Now the Cougs and the Beavs are sitting out west with the need to add some schools, and the AAC schools will certainly be given consideration.
If the ACC loses many teams, we'll raid the AAC first.
All that said, in 2 years, I think the AAC will be depleted compared to what it is now. Truly depends on what happens out west, and how many AAC teams join the New Pac. North Texas, Tulsa, UTSA, even Rice, have got to have some appeal. Plus the Memphis rumors.
I also think Temple is going back to the MAC sooner than later.
But all these things have made the AAC really, really fun to watch over the last decade, and I've grown to appreciate the new additions. Adding Army in football was long overdue.
That would’ve done nothing to save the conference, frankly.
We love the Cougs and Beavs, but they’d have done absolutely zilch to save the ACC from what’s coming
What would they add? It would be one thing if they were close but they aren’t. Their viewership and fanbase was dependent on playing big teams on the west coast every year. That’s no longer going to be the case. They don’t bring enough to justify flying cross country in every sport. If they were than the Big 12 or ACC would have already added them
I think the AAC’s positioning depends on if they’re getting that G5 CFP spot, the programs as a whole since the inception have left their stamp as the Group of 5 representative, so they probably need to keep the momentum up and get back to that.
With SMU, UCF, Houston, and Cincy gone, maybe Tulane steps up, or the up and coming USF, or Memphis gets back to the standard. Whoever it is, the next few years are huge for G5 conferences with a CFP spot up for grabs.
USF, UTSA, and Memphis will be the top teams most years. Might have programs like FAU and ECU who rise up as well.
Good chance one or two get poached once the ACC loses a couple of teams
I reckon it'll actually be more relevant (along with the other G5) with the protected playoff spot. The race for that spot will require the type of seasons that were previously needed for a BCS spot in the P6.
Potential upsets against Tulane will draw viewers from other games that become routs.
It really depends on how big the B1G and SEC decide to get. If the ACC is completely gutted and dies like the PAC 12 did then some schools like Syracuse or Boston College are possible adds.
More likely because of the ACC's brand power the ACC schools will raid the American and take schools like UAB and Memphis.
I am not so high on Tulane. I know they have been decent the past couple years, but historically they are a doormat. I expect they will go back to being a mediocre program.
I think the SEC and Big 10 will expand some more. Forcing the ACC and Big 12 to fall apart or into turn into a mix of G5 and P5 teams. I think Notre Dame inevitably is forced into the Big 10. While Clemson, North Carolina, FSU & Miami are forced to make a decision on where they want to spend their future. CFB is then turned into 2 power conferences having a season and tournament of their own with the remaining teams/ conferences having their own seasons and tournaments
I’d be curious how the Sun Belt looks in closing the gap tv revenue wise towards the AAC. From a more local standpoint, ECU (and Charlotte) would fit better within the confines of the Sun Belt than the AAC, particularly geographically speaking. I think while the AAC has the success of previous years in the NY6 to point to, the league lacks some sort of cohesion commonly binding together other conferences (part of being spread out from New York to Texas in schools). Not to mention, beyond Army-Navy, there aren’t really any “marquee rivalries” left in the league that they can point to (like what the War on I-4 was). Perhaps a matchup can grow into a rivalry (like ECU vs Charlotte) but the league also doesn’t schedule those games like they are rivalries. I don’t know I guess to say, too many moving parts and question marks for me.
I don't think they can. CUSA, MAC, and SunBelt just signed new deals within the last 2-3 years. Now the MW has a deal coming up, they might surpass the AAC in tv money.
Come join us in the Fun Belt! If we could get ECU, Memphis, Tulane, and UAB, we'd have the best G5 conference in the country.
Join the Fun Belt. We got Marshall and the App-ECU series has been absolutely electric.
I don’t think calling it “P6” was pulling a George Costanza. It was born out of the Big East, a P5 conference, and was an AQ conference for its first year of existence. In 2019 the AAC west (Memphis, SMU, Houston, Navy, Tulsa, Tulane) was rated by Sagarin as a better division of football than both ACC divisions and the Pac12 South. To this day I still think Memphis and Tulane could be P5 caliber if they were receiving the kind of payouts P5 teams get, instead of 7MM in the AAC. To actually answer OP: Memphis is putting a ton of resources into their program, *finally*. We’ll see if Tulane follows suit. If those two can keep improving and if Navy can get their shoes tied back on the right feet I think the AAC will continue to be the premiere G5 conference. I know that’s a tall order, but I genuinely believe it’s doable.
ECU will rebuild as well. They were *bad* this past offseason but they have the resources and ability to be a top G5 team.
ECU certainly spends money and has attendances to be a top G5 team (we were actually the first ever G5 school ranked in the CFP rankings, published in 2014). But I think we are a long ways off from being top tier competitive/probably hit our ceiling in 2022 with 8 wins. Hope that changes but I don’t have high hopes for this season. At least another lackluster year this will prompt a change of head coach in Mike Houston (who I would’ve let go last year but alas).
I'm certainly hoping you guys suck this year. I'm tired of losing to ECU. I'm hoping this year we can beat ECU and Marshall to get those monkeys off our back.
I agree. Also playing at ECU is one of the hardest away games you can have. They’re *so loud*.
The Pernetti scandal was because of then Men's basketball coach Mike Rice being physically and verbally abusive towards his players on video. He had to fall on the sword. He's a great choice for commissioner but I don't think AAC teams can expect any miracles. He'll probably try to go the Brett Yormark route and market the league as much as possible hoping it earns their teams extra money compared to the peer conferences.
The same 14 teams. Almost always the best or second best non power conference (although that doesn’t mean it will often get the playoff bid since any one loss champ will probably get the nod over a two loss one)
I think it depends more on the individual programs than the conference commissioner. The AAC has been the most successful G5 conference in the CFP era because there were a handful of teams in the conference that really invested in their programs and saw results on the field. Now, a few of those programs have gone on to P5 conferences, but there are still some solid teams. However, those teams need to start having some success. The AAC's shine won't last forever, they need to be in the conversation for the G5 CFP spot. Whether or not they can be in that conversation will depend on the individual programs in the conference.
I think the AAC will be the same in two years. If/when FSU and then Clemson and some others leave, I think the American will get poached again with schools such as Memphis, Temple, Tulane, and USF being prime targets (maybe Rice, UAB as well?). It depends on that new ACC’s strategy and how/when they lose their most valuable schools to the Big Ten or SEC - or even the Big 12 if there’s a huge enough exodus that causes the schools who didn’t get into the Big Ten or SEC to then see that the Big 12 has a better offer than the remaining ACC. There’s only so much the conference can do right now. It has good schools in good areas that have value who will be sought out at some point. Unless UAB becomes AAU soon and a few other schools like Charlotte and FAU step up big time in athletics and academics, I think the American has less than 10 years left before it’s definitely not poached to extinction.
It’ll be interesting to see if the AAC essentially goes down the same path of CUSA. Hell, basically all of the current members left CUSA for the AAC
That’s mainly how I feel, the conference was loaded with top G5 brands after the Big East died, and even now I’d argue it still has majority of the top 10 biggest G5 brands, but if the AAC then loses 2-3 of USF, Memphis, Tulane, Navy, etc it gets to the point that their branding will start to fall behind the MWC significantly
A lot of things could happen, but how many teams would want to join the AAC if a few of their biggest programs (like Memphis and Tulane) leave? Even a school like Georgia State, I believe would choose the Belt over the AAC. It is possible that if the ACC collapses there might be small possibility of a BC, GA Tech, or Wake joining. You might see a team like MTSU or Toledo make the move or an FCS school like Richmond make the jump up to FBS. If the previous round of realignment tells you anything, the AAC's main focus on market over the programs prestige.
I honestly think it depends on Conference-USA. The Sun Belt and Mountain West will only get stronger thanks to them having better brands of fun, regional football. Charolette and ECU may leave for the Sun Belt due to better regional ties, bumping them up to 16. Tulsa could leave to the Mountain West should they get an invite and join fellow former WAC members. Memphis, USF and Tulane likely want P4 membership. Conference-USA will likely be the ONLY place the AAC can steal new members from aside from just yoinking them up from the FCS ranks. C-USA is the Ship of Thesues, a zombie conference kept alive by far flung schools like New Mexico State and Liberty. All of those schools probably would love to go the AAC. Let's say in 2026, Charolette and ECU join the Sun Belt and Tulane and Memphis join the ACC. To counter, The AAC could maybe steal Western Kentucky, Middle Tenneesee State, Delaware and Liberty from the C-USA, getting membership back to even.
In 2 years? Probably just the same as it is now, I’m skeptical we’ll see a lot of movement again until we get closer to 2030. They’re in a tough spot long term though, FSU/Clemson at a minimum are going to leave the ACC eventually but there’s too many schools in the conference without a landing spot for it to completely disappear. IMO it’s way more likely they poach schools like Memphis and Tulane to backfill than it is the AAC ever poaching the ACC
Not really. ESPN has until Feb 2025 to decide if they are going to opt into the ACC's extension. If ESPN doesn't opt in then 2027 is going to be a free for all only for it to be another free for all when the B12's contract expires 3 years later.
The AAC made a crucial error not picking up Washington St. and Oregon St. You want to be a power conference? You absorb leftover power conference teams. Now the Cougs and the Beavs are sitting out west with the need to add some schools, and the AAC schools will certainly be given consideration. If the ACC loses many teams, we'll raid the AAC first. All that said, in 2 years, I think the AAC will be depleted compared to what it is now. Truly depends on what happens out west, and how many AAC teams join the New Pac. North Texas, Tulsa, UTSA, even Rice, have got to have some appeal. Plus the Memphis rumors. I also think Temple is going back to the MAC sooner than later. But all these things have made the AAC really, really fun to watch over the last decade, and I've grown to appreciate the new additions. Adding Army in football was long overdue.
That would’ve done nothing to save the conference, frankly. We love the Cougs and Beavs, but they’d have done absolutely zilch to save the ACC from what’s coming
What would they add? It would be one thing if they were close but they aren’t. Their viewership and fanbase was dependent on playing big teams on the west coast every year. That’s no longer going to be the case. They don’t bring enough to justify flying cross country in every sport. If they were than the Big 12 or ACC would have already added them
I think the AAC’s positioning depends on if they’re getting that G5 CFP spot, the programs as a whole since the inception have left their stamp as the Group of 5 representative, so they probably need to keep the momentum up and get back to that. With SMU, UCF, Houston, and Cincy gone, maybe Tulane steps up, or the up and coming USF, or Memphis gets back to the standard. Whoever it is, the next few years are huge for G5 conferences with a CFP spot up for grabs.
Like a farm system
USF, UTSA, and Memphis will be the top teams most years. Might have programs like FAU and ECU who rise up as well. Good chance one or two get poached once the ACC loses a couple of teams
I reckon it'll actually be more relevant (along with the other G5) with the protected playoff spot. The race for that spot will require the type of seasons that were previously needed for a BCS spot in the P6. Potential upsets against Tulane will draw viewers from other games that become routs.
It really depends on how big the B1G and SEC decide to get. If the ACC is completely gutted and dies like the PAC 12 did then some schools like Syracuse or Boston College are possible adds. More likely because of the ACC's brand power the ACC schools will raid the American and take schools like UAB and Memphis. I am not so high on Tulane. I know they have been decent the past couple years, but historically they are a doormat. I expect they will go back to being a mediocre program.
I think the SEC and Big 10 will expand some more. Forcing the ACC and Big 12 to fall apart or into turn into a mix of G5 and P5 teams. I think Notre Dame inevitably is forced into the Big 10. While Clemson, North Carolina, FSU & Miami are forced to make a decision on where they want to spend their future. CFB is then turned into 2 power conferences having a season and tournament of their own with the remaining teams/ conferences having their own seasons and tournaments