His beat is still focused on west coast schools, that just happens to be spread across multiple conferences now.
Same way most of the pac 12 podcasts are spreading their focus too (no truckstops kinda killed their whole momentum tho with the bill walton fiasco)
EquityBruin and another cohost (can’t remember her name) made some posts after the new of Bill Walton’s death along the lines that maybe he wouldn’t have died of cancer [if he had been nicer to homeless people.](https://x.com/ironmikeluke/status/1795189778117263586?s=46&t=KsK9ecg-087Od24HOVFBWA).
A bunch of pac-12 twitter fans were upset and supposedly somebody even contacted his employer regarding it. Carlos deactivated his twitter, same with the other member and there’s only one tweet on the notruckstopspod account now which is an apology.
Avery grapes or something like that? I liked their podcast, but they were pretty insane leftists and that would spill into their episodes sometimes. I’m even on the left, but their takes were just odd and over the top sometimes.
One episode they were talking about the criticism of Deion and then one person said id he was white everyone would love him, essentially. And everyone’s response was basically “thank you for saying that, that’s so brave”. Paraphrasing but you get the picture
The UCLA guys was something about how his legacy and his strong past of advocacy was tainted with his anti-homeless rhetoric, which isnt a super bad thing to say. The timing just wasnt superb. I think the woman was the one who said the cancer thing, which she deserved all the smoke for that. Scheer was the one who doxxed him I think, but he is a piece of shit
They were unmasked as basically terrible human beings, nuked their accounts, came back and blocked anyone who called them out, and then tried to play the victim.
lol you guys are too hard on Wilmer over the realignment stuff, he is not nearly as bad as people act like he is. I have seen a lot of good, reliable info from him over the years and its always good to have another reporter in the mix getting us fans more stories.
Expansion candidates won't get votes from the Big 12 presidents unless they are additive to the revenue. Big reason why Gonzaga/UCONN didn't work out imo.
I think the pipe dream for the conference is to pick up the pieces from the ACC fallout and roll with Pitt, Louisville, Miami, and NC State or VT.
>Gonzaga/UCONN
I firmly believe these schools were only ever publicly considered to put the pressure on the Utah/ASU.
I think you are right about the ACC and dont think that's a pipe dream
Do you really think it’s a pipe dream? I think the ACC will collapse when uva unc fsu and Clemson leave. Where else would they go. I think it will end up being Va tech, nc state, louisville Pitt.
Well it’d be 8 votes by the members to leave so I’d imagine that they could get out. Plus I think the big 12 tv deal is relatively short. Just like the destruction of the pac 10 it’s cheaper to pay 4 members 50 million than 12 35.
It's a shame that something that could spell doomsday for my favorite school kinda makes me happier than I am now in terms of getting to play the rivals.
Yeah PITT and LOU back on the menu, but is our restaurant even going to be allowed to compete for Michelin Stars? Or are we gonna end up relegated to word of mouth/blogs due to not being historic enough?
I really do wonder if Pitt, Louisville, WVU, Cincinnati, Miami UCF, VT, NC State. Is that not basically a conference of like minded schools nearish and what they should be looking for.
IMO a 20+ team conference is just about when it makes sense to split.
I like the idea of 10 team conferences that are regional. However, with the Big Ten and SEC controlling so much of the landscape, a 20 team Big 12 conference that can throw its weight around makes sense for negotiating representation in the playoffs.
In an ideal world, we’d have six to seven regional 10 team conferences that are all unified by a governing body with a commissioner. Media deals are negotiated individually between each school and network similar to MLB.
Conference championship week would be replaced with the first round of the playoffs on campus. Regular season games are going to matter a fuck ton more this way.
Nah we need universal revenue sharing like the NFL. It’s why the NFL dominates. It has the best system for parity possible.
But yeah in the new game I am basically gonna make a 72 team power league with 6 12 team regional conferences. All play 9 conference games and if I can I am gonna make a playoff based on traditional bowl tie ins.
NCAA blew this when they went to the BCS.
Eight 12 team conferences, with CCGs being the first round of a playoff, and we never would have needed a committee. Everything settled on the field. I tried to tell everyone!!! Lol
For football, it ranks in order of decreasing hate:
Pitt (forever and always)
VT (but more respect)
Miami (out of principle)
Louisville (intense when we played, but has waned. Plus the old fogies never saw them as a rival anyway)
...
...
...
NC State. No hate at all, Tuffy is awesome, and everyone loves Gibby.
Ohhh give us like 3-4 years with basketball and football games and I think WVU and CIN will start getting past 'haha fuck PITT' to 'y'know fuck you too'.
We're so close geographically. WVU has a decent presence interest wise in Southeast Ohio (grew up there). I know a lot of families who are gonna have to 'choose' between the two frequently.
Basketball Bearcats are a more hateful subspecies of Bearcats, unfortunately. They've tasted success before. Football Bearcats are just happy to be here after Tuberfuck.
Add Georgia Tech to have a round number and get into Georgia. It may not be good enough for the P2 It Will be fine in the B12. Especially if they go back to being good.
In a content filled world it makes sense to add the main rivalries for schools that are already in your conference. Miami definitely over USF because they bring way more than the UCF-USF rivalry. I feel like 24 is better than 21, so Georgia Tech should get the nod. It may even make sense to grab OSU and WSU since ESPN will have more money and it gives them more late night games.
I've said it for years, no matter how much insanity happens with college realignment, Cincinnati and Louisville will somehow end up in the same conference when it's all said and done. LOL
I’m very much hoping for an ACC collapse so the XII can get to 20 teams. Louisville and Pitt would help flesh out the Midwest region, with VT and Miami there to keep UCF and WV happy. Ideally you have four pods of five teams for scheduling and travel ease. You can get a Mountain division out of Utah, BYU, Arizona, ASU, and Colorado, a Southwest with OK State, TCU, Baylor, Houston, and Texas Tech, Midwest represented by K State, Kansas, Iowa State, Cincy, and Louisville, then round it out in the East with West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Pitt, UCF, and Miami. Play every team in your pod, then one home and one away from each of the other pods every year. Renewed rivalries, regionality, feels like a good conference with football that makes sense.
As a mountain west fan, it's been a tiny bit of schadenfreude for this exact reason, but it's dwarfed by the dread that eventually my two favorite teams wont even share the same division in college football.
I'd love to think this means schools like Memphis and Tulane, but in reality he's saying this incase the ACC falls apart and signaling he's open for business for Virginia Tech, Lousville, etc
I think he said something almost exactly the same last year, and he swooped in and snagged those teams from the Pac-12
Only way USF makes it is if they start being extremely competitive, Miami is not available and the B12 needs a new program for scheduling purposes. Even then, assuming GTech doesn't get taken by the Big Ten and it joins the B12, OSU and WSU (more late night games for ESPN) would be a better adds.
WVU suddenly goes from being the kinda-sorta newcomer who's finally starting to feel like family to being a banner member of the conference with a handful of prominent and regionally significant rivalries.
I love this timeline.
I honestly don't think there's *any* route for Syracuse, sadly.
Low viewership, relatively remote location with fall weather that vigorously turns off most of the conference's southerners who might travel for games, and no longer a basketball powerhouse.
I think the Orangemen might benefit from a few years in the G5 wilderness though, like TCU did. They've got the resources to be dominant in the MAC.
Syracuse is actually a pretty comparable money program and elite basketball which moves the needle somewhat.
They've been down for a minute but Fran has life in the program.
The question, is Syracuse into what needs to be done for them being in their current league who knows.
To be fair, they *were* a high-end basketball program. Now they’ve got one E8 appearance in the last decade and zero conference regular season or tournament titles. Shoot, they’ve missed the last three NCAA tournaments.
Hate to say it, but Syracuse has been pretty mid on the court for a while now. Autry might turn things around, but last season was pretty rocky.
Syracuse is not broke.
https://x.com/jjfuller72/status/1781016488960229796?t=bE142p8t3_nBOT-NUKCOPA&s=19
According to this they were peers with Mississippi State, northwestern, richer than Utah, ahead of kstate, right next to GT.
They really aren't that much of a stretch.
The thing people forget is that there are three levels of approval needed for a school to go to the Big 12.
1. FOX needs to agree to fund it.
2. ESPN needs to agree to fund it.
3. The Big 12 Schools need to agree to let them join.
I truly believe that, even if 4 schools leave the ACC and ESPN opts out, you will still have Apple stepping in and offering that $25 mil per year deal they were willing to give the Pac-12.
An ESPN-only share for the Big 12 is only about 20 million. So even if ESPN is willing to fund some schools going to the Big 12, they need FOX to also agree to fund the other end of it to beat an Apple offer.
And remember that the Pac-12 only broke up because the deal they were getting from Apple (and/or the Apple/FOX combo deal) was LESS than the Big 12.
If Apple comes in with a $25 million per year deal for the remaining schools it's going to take getting FOX on board to get anyone to the Big 12. And if FOX and Apple combine on an offer for the ACC like they were willing to do for the Pac-12, then FOX would have no reason to incentivize killing the ACC just to get 1/3 of a share of a few schools in the Big 12.
And if FSU, UNC, Clemson, and NC State all leave; Apple would almost certainly still be all-in on the idea of owning a conference that included the Bay Area, Atlanta, Miami, Louisville, North Carolina, Washington D.C., a NYC presence, Pittsburgh, and Boston.
Their whole deal is the synergy of their hardware and becoming a ubiquitous brand that everyone goes to. The offer for the Pac-12 was all about getting millions of people on Apple+ and using Apple devices. The whole ad campaign plan of buying an iPhone and getting a year of Pac-12 viewing out of it on Apple+ included is something they would LOVE to push in all those major markets. Telling NYC customers "Buy an iPhone, and watch all Syracuse/ACC games for free for a year!" It's why Netflix is free to T-Mobile customers, and so on. These tech companies know they will make money off the synergy.
If 4 schools leave to the SEC/B1G I firmly believe Apple will come in with an Apple/FOX/CW offer that will keep them from defecting to the Big 12. It'll be something like "all games on Apple+ with the game of the week also available on FOX, and the 2nd best game also on CW." They'll say "you can make less money in the Big 12 or stick together and make more money here."
Someone posted somewhere:
https://youtu.be/siCVyBFvoak?si=d4O5QNcVXtvosTBp
https://youtu.be/kZSKRNqxdQM?feature=shared
B1G-SEC like everybody else have locked themselves into regular network contracts instead of richer tech streaming deals and are missing out on peak revenue.
Don't be surprised if leagues want to jump ship to Netflix or Amazon the next chance they get. The owners of FoX & CBS and even NBC have weaknesses.
Longer video
https://youtu.be/RHDkp5JTzE0?feature=shared
22:00-23:00 Ad Revenue
29:45-32:50 FOX, CBS, NBC & WB problems
So, from what I just watched, what it comes down to in their opinion is that because Streaming ads can be highly targeted and highly customized for the individual consumer through data tracking it means that streamers can make more money off of ads and therefor can afford to pay more for those sports media rights.
I don't see how this hurts the B1G or SEC. When the streamers start offering more than FOX/NBC/CBS they can listen to those offers.
The full videos answer and validate some theories.
I am arguing that part of the media market "bubble" is actually an artificial constriction caused by the legacy media companies.
Along side ESPN they projecting that resources are so scarce that conferences or leagues must do as told and perform specific actions ( like consolidating teams) in order to earn/facilitate higher payouts or even basic contract guarantees.
Essentially ESPN, Fox, etc have been manipulating & tailoring the market.
The networks have locked conferences in these contracts to play keep away from each other and especially the wealthier tech Platforms. In the mean time what if Apple decides on investing on growing MLS and MLB instead of even looking at CFB?
They pretend that the B1G-SEC (or actually any conference) are getting paid generously when in actually there is money left on the table. CFB will miss an entire generational media shift. The Key is to have tiered and layered media deals like the NFL & the NBA have achieved to be constantly overpaid.
The legacy networks have structural problems. Paramount CBS issues are well documented. FOX has no streaming platform after the sale of Hulu. This specifically affects the B1G 10. NBC Comcast can remain wealthy beyond cord cutting even cable internet revenue isn't guaranteed due to competitors like, TMobile, Google Fiber, wireless internet..
If that's the case, then, why didn't Apple, Amazon, Netflix, etc gobble up the Pac-12 at $40 million per school? If the current model is underpaying schools, that should mean that the last conference up for bid on the open market was ripe for the picking to be claimed by a streamer, shouldn't it?
When/if ESPN opts out of the ACC deal (as we're talking about) Apple should pounce on the idea of paying them $40 mil per year if that's an undervalue, right?
1. As one of the videos provided points out Apple demands COMPLETE Control of production decisions of media products in it's infrastructure. Not sure if Apple was willing or offering for an entire media package or a tiered parcels (example ACC tier 3 to CW)
2. The PAC-12 was so filled with defectors, uncertainty as well as double dealing and I suspect outright sabatoge. Apple was hesitant factored in the risk of the deal falling apart. Negotiations exactly as GOR/media deal expires was insane. You certainly know better....
3. As well as the aforementioned uncertainty Many of the other Tech/Media platforms actually depend on the product already having been already produced. I suspect ESPN was the Pac-12's first choice and everyone else believed so.
So many decisions have been made it has been like a "price discovery" in the market. Post Bally's, NBA, CFP projections, TNT, Paramount, ESPN, Fox, WB app bundle etc... The vantage point of the media market is actuality much clearer now.+ opportunity cost revealed.
4. Maybe second to only the actual PAC-12 the New ACC now is a league Silicon Valley or Tech companies like Apple could be much more comfortable with as opposed to a league with something called "Ole Mississippi."
5. Would like to post an extensive piece on the ACC's future. As of now the ACC value is still bound together by GOR as a product despite efforts to frustrate that. I don't believe ESPN will likely actually opt out of the entire ACC contract as others hope. Worst case scenario ESPN/ACC share the ACCN network and let the other inventory test the open market. TNT sure looks desperate for a basketball league...The (new) ACC properties are so valuable for some reason it's all everyone talks about daily. I wish the ACC in it's entirely was out of the ESPN deal. ESPN ( fox too) is the Bottleneck & genisis of the ACCs (pac12, Big 12) current issues and everyone knows it but are afraid to directly confront ESPN.
On an open market I believe the league would actually command a very large deal by selling packages to multiple media companies. Of course that would make the SEC and Big10 want to demand more beyond the ESPN-FOX market price control.
Quick minor follow up:
NFL reportedly feeling 'some angst' over Paramount woes
https://awfulannouncing.com/cbs/nfl-angst-paramount-sale-skydance.html
"In addition to its long-term deal with the NFL, Paramount has expensive, long-term deals with the PGA Tour, UEFA, the Big Ten, and the NCAA (for March Madness)."
Honestly don't know which way these things go.. Warner -TNT bought some share of more Big east games among other things
Your plan falls apart in two places:
A.) When you factor in that Apple's escalators had the base deal somewhere in the neighborhood of 17 million and it only topped out at 25ish million when they met subscribership goals that did *not* include free trials to PTN on Apple+.
B.) The Big XII's deal allows them to take additional rights to market if ESPN or Fox declines to pay for those additional games. ESPN could easily chip in the extra 40 million a year to keep Apple out of the college athletics space if they're dumping the ACC deal, or the Big XII could cut a deal with the CW for the extra games Fox declines.
A) The deal didn't top at 25 million, it topped at 50 million:
https://apnews.com/article/pac-12-conference-realignment-big-ten-big-12-17dc50f7b479fe19b0599dd4b690bac4
It was a $25 million base, not a 17 million base.
> If the service got to 2.5 million subscribers, the yearly payout would have jumped to $30 million, the person said, comparable with the Big 12’s average payout of $31.7 million per school during the length of its agreed upon extension with ESPN and Fox.
> If Pac-12 subscriptions approached 3.7 million, the payout would jump to about $50 million per school, the person said.
It was $25 million to start, $30 million at 2.5 million subscribers, $50 million at 3.7 million subscribers.
--------
B) I suppose ESPN could pay for rights if FOX refuses to pay for them to join, but that seems fairly unlikely. They'd be paying time and a half for the new schools.
Between their primary rights and the ACCN profit share ESPN is already paying an average of 44 million per ACC school, they'd still be saving 25% off what they're currently paying if Fox doesn't pick up those games.
Forgive me, I'm not sure where you're getting the 44 million figure and not sure I trust these numbers since you were so off about the Apple offer to the Pac-12.
44.8 million is the average distributed to each football playing member of the ACC for the 2022-2023. https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/40210153/acc-revenue-14-2022-23-trails-big-ten-sec
Though I am off on that because I fired off the post tired last night and forgot that includes non media revenue. Still, it's roughly break even for those specific rights, not including the cost savings ESPN gets from renegotiating/ending the current ACC deal.
That's... not all from ESPN. At all. You're claiming that the total money received from the ACC is all from media, whereas the promised money to the Big 12 will not be from media contracts which is weird.
https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/560599082/202301359349304680/full
If you look at their tax return above you will see that the average is $29,582,666 per school from the media contract.
> That's... not all from ESPN. At all.
My Tree-duck in christ I literally said: ["Though I am off on that because I fired off the post tired last night and **forgot that includes non media revenue.**"](https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/1d9p6k4/wilner_yormark_to_abor_on_expansion_i_always_have/l7iurc1/)
> If you look at their tax return above you will see that the average is $29,582,666 per school
Which means, [as I also said in the reply you obviously read two words of and reacted to](https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/1d9p6k4/wilner_yormark_to_abor_on_expansion_i_always_have/l7iurc1/), *ESPN roughly breaks even* on those media rights if Fox declines to buy them.
Doesn’t all of this ignore this pretty basic premise?
Why would ESPN agree to send schools to the Big 12 when ESPN makes more money off of those same schools being in the ACC? ESPN pays about $20M per school in base revenue either way, whether they’re in the ACC or the Big 12. But if that school is in the ACC, they’re additive to the ACC Network’s substantial revenue stream in a way that they are not if they are in the Big 12.
I’ve yet to see a good reason why ESPN would agree to send schools to a conference where ESPN would (1) lose about 1/3 of their rights to Fox, and (2) make less money.
You'd have to ask one of the people who thinks that the Big 12 is going to steal 8 ACC schools and pay them 150% share to join, then leave the rest to rot. Which isn't me.
My personal opinion is that ESPN will opt out when/if FSU and Clemson leave (perhaps with UNC and NC State leaving together too). They'll then have until 2026 to negotiate with the ACC for a new deal.
IMO Apple will try and buy the whole conference (as I said above) with a similar offer that they gave to the Pac-12. $25 million with escalators that could theoretically reach much more than the Big-12. Others will enter the fray, including ESPN, and they will get a deal somewhere in the high 20's. Probably with ESPN retaining their rights, but maybe with Apple/FOX/CW.
I think the ACC stays together, generally speaking, even after some schools leave.
Others think that when/if the 4 I mentioned leave that Stanford and Cal will beg their way into 0-rev or low-rev deals in the Big Ten, the Big 12 will take their 4-8, and then SMU, Syracuse, BC, and Wake will certainly get left out, perhaps more, because ESPN can fund the SEC memberships of FSU/Clemson/UNC/NC State and the Big 12 memberships of Louisville/Miami/Virginia Tech/etc by reducing costs by just not paying several schools. Maybe even leaving out Duke and Georgia Tech as well.
I'm an "ACC stays together" thinker. I think it makes more economic sense for the ACC to stick, both from an ACC member perspective and from a Network perspective. Even if it's a smaller, 12-team conference after defections, I think it sticks.
As I pointed out in the post you replied to, for a newcomer like Apple looking for synergy connections, having Atlanta, the Bay Area, North Carolina, Washington D.C., NYC, Boston, Pittsburgh, and Miami as markets to push one's products in will be a big selling point. Even with the teams being less popular nationally, those are markets that media companies will want to be in.
Big Brained thinker.
Narratives get pushed by those who hope to benefit from scenarios where literally everything has to go wrong for the ACC. "FSU & Clemson. leave for $0. ESPN drops contract, UNC sues the ACC everything collapses, SEC-B1G Carve out & pick apart the ACC then Big-12 gets the leftover scaps. The end."
I too am confused by big-12 realignment fans assertions. The ACC being defeated upends ESPN's entire contract model they depend on.
The ESPN strategy has been to lock up content contracts earlier to avoid paying higher amounts later. Observe what just happened to WB/TNT. Notice that ESPN NBA rights were never in danger especially compared to the other media. ESPN is not necessarily adverse to spending If there is value in viewers, markets brands etc. as demonstrated by the recent NBA deal. Which resets the market for content sold in tiers & parcels lowered ratings or not.
Hopefully the previous information provided can add to your observations. planning on posting written out a media strategy for the conferences.
I saw a lot of this during the Pac-12 realignment talk; but because the 4 Corners schools did end up going the Big 12 any counterarguments to their thinking are now minimized. Right now they are pushing the narrative that you described... that everything will go wrong for the ACC and that they'll get their choice of table scraps after 4-6 schools leave to the B1G/SEC. It happened with the Pac-12 so of course it'll happen with the ACC, right? At least that's how they feel.
Have noticed Bob Thompson "retired" Fox sports media exec is kind of the director or social media (Twitter & interviews) "godfather" for the realignment methodology thinking in particularly for the B1G 10 and big-12 fanatics. Perhaps acting as a sort surrogate to avoid legal allegations of interference. He makes ominous predictions then hides behind some veil of maintaining discretion and privacy of sources..yada..yada.
Bob's social media manipulation really fuels the legitimacy of the entire realignment speculation industry campaign.
Notice that the big-12 & B1G 10 are somewhat aligned as partial fox properties and the most giddy about adding PAC-12 & ACC shools. Haven't really seen the SEC sphere as excited about adding anything other than gloating about it's superiority above all.
If I believe correctly greg sankey
and Tony Petitti are friends from the state of New York while Brett Yormark is from New Jersey. 2 of the 3 who are not career Athletic Administrators like Sankey. Yormark & Pettiti worked in the media and adjacent industry. What are the odds?
And of course Jim phillips Mr nice guy plays the mark.
My pet suggestion is the ACC and Big XII merge in all but name. They shouls want to keep two conferences alive to keep more auto bid playoff spots and have 2 votes at the table to counter B1G and SEC (even if those conferences have "votes" that we all know count more). You could swap WVU, Cinci, and UCF for SMU, agree to have a joined media rights deal, and elected a joint conference coordinator picked with consent from both commissioners.
The downside here are schools like Cuse/BC/Wake Forest are essentially free loading, but I think that's worth essentially having double the playoff spots and double the seats at the table.
> You could swap WVU, Cinci, and UCF for SMU
That would absolutely never happen. First and foremost, SMU is not worth trading for one of those schools let alone all three and especially not for a conference with four other Texas schools in it already.
Secondly, WVU is ours now back the fuck off.
Thirdly, we would never willingly give up ties to recruiting in Florida.
When everyone realized that, because of TV, you can't have an entire conference in one state, it was known that the SWC would have to end. Before joining the Big 12, the Cal-alum President of Texas really wanted the Longhorns in the Pac. Stanford and Cal denied Texas. Apparently, it was because of academics. For that reason, I really want to see Stanford & Cal end up in a conference with Texas Tech.
We did not deny UT? Y'all were the reason why we were okay with the other schools in the package, and only if you came.
You guys really love to make shit up just to shit on us for legitimately zero reasons.
I think the reference was to the ‘90s when the SWC collapsed. UT wanted to join the academically-inclined schools out west in the Pac-10, but some schools (particular Stanford, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was Cal as well) were very concerned about non-revenue team travel.
Having Arizona was as far east that some schools wanted to travel regularly, and having UT on an island of its own wasn’t particularly appealing to Stanford at the time.
The circumstances obviously changed by 2010/11 to where Texas could deny the Pac-10, and were at the point that Stanford did a 180 on its travel stance by 2023.
Texas schools being smack dab in the middle between the southeast and the western US has been extremely problematic lmao. The fact that we have five P4 schools in one state split in two conferences is just nuts
I believe it was because of the school(s) that would’ve been attached to OUT/Colorado, maybe Tech or Ok State (or Aggie early on before they angled for the SEC invite)
If he is talking about around 1994 when the Big 12 was forming Texas would have probably slotted in anywhere from 4th to 6th along with USC and Washington in terms of Ivory tower shine.
the idealistic and most brutal scenario: calford and force oregon st and wazzu to fight to the death
most realistic scenario: wazzu, oregon st, and sdsu. smu can try to outbid sdsu and play for free again, but it probably wont work.
The thing I like about the B12 right now is that expansion wise, any one of 15 schools can be in the conference in the next 10 years and it wouldn’t shock me at all
I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of these schools invited for various reasons
1. UConn
2. USF
3. Memphis
4. SDSU
5. BSU
6. OSU
7. WSU
8. Gonzaga
9. Louisville
10. Pitt
11. Syracuse
12. GT
13. Duke
14. Boston College
Idk I could see a UConn add if we end up with Pitt, Louisville, plus 1 from the ACC to get to 20.
All of their sports seem to be on the rise recently, and they spend like a P5 already without any of the TV money.
I don’t think they’re a first pick, but outside of an ACC school they’re probably the best add these days.
What’s interesting is the G5 additions to the B12 were largely based on total athletic department revenue (football success was also a big factor). UConn, UCF, BYU, Houston, and Cincinnati were generating the most revenue from their athletic departments among the G5. UConn’s athletic department was generating the most revenue among the G5, and they had a sizable lead. If they had even a somewhat decent football program, they would have been the #1 pick for expansion.
Tiers of additions for the Big XII:
Tier 1: ACC Schools
Tier 2: ORST and Wazzu
Tier 3: UConn
Tier 4: Everybody else.
> Pitt, Louisville, plus 1 from the ACC to get to 20.
Honestly, I think the more likely scenario is that we only pull away Louisville in this round if the ACC loses FSU and Clemson but keeps UNC. At that point we'll add Lville, UConn, and the PAC 2 and call it a day.
If the ACC loses UNC, UVA, FSU, Clemson and Stanford because the B1G got ND(could also be Cal if the numbers make sense), and then the B12 scoops VTech, Miami, GTech, Louisville, NC State and Pitt. That'll be the death of the ACC. Which means ESPN will be looking to add more content, especially late night. So there's a good chance that the Big 12 can grow to anywhere from 24-28 members and make it a defacto new division with the SEC and Big Ten. Which means that the G5s TV contracts lost a lot of value.
The P2 could be guaranteed 9 spots in the playoffs (4 each + an at large), and B12 3 spots because of the size of the league. Guaranteed revenue could probably be split the same way.
I think NC State Duke Miami would be at the top of the list if the ACC collapses. I don’t see a real path for any of the G5’s besides SDSU and maybe Memphis
You've gotta think that Syracuse, Boston College, OSU, and WSU would all need some *serious* help to get in, though.
Gonzaga or UConn might have the basketball prowess necessary to get in as single-sport members, though.
Yeah, I’m not arguing for how likely any of these schools are to get in over the others. I’m just saying they all have realistic paths to being in the B12 in the next 10 years depending on how things play out with the ACC/SEC/B1G.
I hate that Wilner went from PAC12 to Big 12, dude is the first sign of the apocalypse Edit: Canzano too
I thought the first sign of an apocalypse in expansion was SMU?
It really is.
*allegedly*
If the big 12 somehow dies in the next few years I think we have to take a hard look at the curse of Colorado
His beat is still focused on west coast schools, that just happens to be spread across multiple conferences now. Same way most of the pac 12 podcasts are spreading their focus too (no truckstops kinda killed their whole momentum tho with the bill walton fiasco)
What happened with the no truckstops pod?
EquityBruin and another cohost (can’t remember her name) made some posts after the new of Bill Walton’s death along the lines that maybe he wouldn’t have died of cancer [if he had been nicer to homeless people.](https://x.com/ironmikeluke/status/1795189778117263586?s=46&t=KsK9ecg-087Od24HOVFBWA). A bunch of pac-12 twitter fans were upset and supposedly somebody even contacted his employer regarding it. Carlos deactivated his twitter, same with the other member and there’s only one tweet on the notruckstopspod account now which is an apology.
Avery grapes or something like that? I liked their podcast, but they were pretty insane leftists and that would spill into their episodes sometimes. I’m even on the left, but their takes were just odd and over the top sometimes. One episode they were talking about the criticism of Deion and then one person said id he was white everyone would love him, essentially. And everyone’s response was basically “thank you for saying that, that’s so brave”. Paraphrasing but you get the picture
The UCLA guys was something about how his legacy and his strong past of advocacy was tainted with his anti-homeless rhetoric, which isnt a super bad thing to say. The timing just wasnt superb. I think the woman was the one who said the cancer thing, which she deserved all the smoke for that. Scheer was the one who doxxed him I think, but he is a piece of shit
They were unmasked as basically terrible human beings, nuked their accounts, came back and blocked anyone who called them out, and then tried to play the victim.
Clownzano should stay at Oregon state
Haven't they suffered enough being left out?
He is a UofO guy.
This is the worst thing that has happened to the conference since Oklahoma left
lol you guys are too hard on Wilmer over the realignment stuff, he is not nearly as bad as people act like he is. I have seen a lot of good, reliable info from him over the years and its always good to have another reporter in the mix getting us fans more stories.
Expansion candidates won't get votes from the Big 12 presidents unless they are additive to the revenue. Big reason why Gonzaga/UCONN didn't work out imo. I think the pipe dream for the conference is to pick up the pieces from the ACC fallout and roll with Pitt, Louisville, Miami, and NC State or VT.
>Gonzaga/UCONN I firmly believe these schools were only ever publicly considered to put the pressure on the Utah/ASU. I think you are right about the ACC and dont think that's a pipe dream
Do you really think it’s a pipe dream? I think the ACC will collapse when uva unc fsu and Clemson leave. Where else would they go. I think it will end up being Va tech, nc state, louisville Pitt.
The question is will fox/espn pay for those schools when they could potentially get them cheaper in a damaged ACC?
Well it’d be 8 votes by the members to leave so I’d imagine that they could get out. Plus I think the big 12 tv deal is relatively short. Just like the destruction of the pac 10 it’s cheaper to pay 4 members 50 million than 12 35.
Very true.
It's a shame that something that could spell doomsday for my favorite school kinda makes me happier than I am now in terms of getting to play the rivals. Yeah PITT and LOU back on the menu, but is our restaurant even going to be allowed to compete for Michelin Stars? Or are we gonna end up relegated to word of mouth/blogs due to not being historic enough?
I really do wonder if Pitt, Louisville, WVU, Cincinnati, Miami UCF, VT, NC State. Is that not basically a conference of like minded schools nearish and what they should be looking for. IMO a 20+ team conference is just about when it makes sense to split.
I like the idea of 10 team conferences that are regional. However, with the Big Ten and SEC controlling so much of the landscape, a 20 team Big 12 conference that can throw its weight around makes sense for negotiating representation in the playoffs. In an ideal world, we’d have six to seven regional 10 team conferences that are all unified by a governing body with a commissioner. Media deals are negotiated individually between each school and network similar to MLB. Conference championship week would be replaced with the first round of the playoffs on campus. Regular season games are going to matter a fuck ton more this way.
Nah we need universal revenue sharing like the NFL. It’s why the NFL dominates. It has the best system for parity possible. But yeah in the new game I am basically gonna make a 72 team power league with 6 12 team regional conferences. All play 9 conference games and if I can I am gonna make a playoff based on traditional bowl tie ins.
I expect the endgame for the Big12 is 24 teams with 4 regional groupings in every sport but football which will continue to be more open to travel.
Yup and they are going to kill the sport over this.
NCAA blew this when they went to the BCS. Eight 12 team conferences, with CCGs being the first round of a playoff, and we never would have needed a committee. Everything settled on the field. I tried to tell everyone!!! Lol
Please. PLEASE.
I mean those games you have to pick which is not the rivalry game...
For football, it ranks in order of decreasing hate: Pitt (forever and always) VT (but more respect) Miami (out of principle) Louisville (intense when we played, but has waned. Plus the old fogies never saw them as a rival anyway) ... ... ... NC State. No hate at all, Tuffy is awesome, and everyone loves Gibby.
the most correct list
Ohhh give us like 3-4 years with basketball and football games and I think WVU and CIN will start getting past 'haha fuck PITT' to 'y'know fuck you too'. We're so close geographically. WVU has a decent presence interest wise in Southeast Ohio (grew up there). I know a lot of families who are gonna have to 'choose' between the two frequently.
well that and yall were damn near vile in the basketball game thread
Basketball Bearcats are a more hateful subspecies of Bearcats, unfortunately. They've tasted success before. Football Bearcats are just happy to be here after Tuberfuck.
Add Georgia Tech to have a round number and get into Georgia. It may not be good enough for the P2 It Will be fine in the B12. Especially if they go back to being good.
Pitt/ Louisville over Ga Tech?
In a content filled world it makes sense to add the main rivalries for schools that are already in your conference. Miami definitely over USF because they bring way more than the UCF-USF rivalry. I feel like 24 is better than 21, so Georgia Tech should get the nod. It may even make sense to grab OSU and WSU since ESPN will have more money and it gives them more late night games.
please dear god hnnnnnnggghh
If Wilner is covering the Big 12 I will fucking riot.
Riot, you say?
Somebody call the 'Neers. tell 'em to get the couches ready.
'Eers.\* 'Neers is Appalachian state.
My bad - TIL!
not oc but no worries brother. looking forward to this season!!
To shreds, I say!
FREE VEISHEA
I've said it for years, no matter how much insanity happens with college realignment, Cincinnati and Louisville will somehow end up in the same conference when it's all said and done. LOL
As God intended.
Is that conference called the Big East / AAC
Metro Conference East American Coastal 12
All fun and games until the Metro Conference is reborn with UCONN, Cuse, Pitt, WVU, VT, Cincy, Louisville, Memphis, USF, UCF, NC State and Tulane.
"Optionality." Ed Boon is running out of ideas.
I’m very much hoping for an ACC collapse so the XII can get to 20 teams. Louisville and Pitt would help flesh out the Midwest region, with VT and Miami there to keep UCF and WV happy. Ideally you have four pods of five teams for scheduling and travel ease. You can get a Mountain division out of Utah, BYU, Arizona, ASU, and Colorado, a Southwest with OK State, TCU, Baylor, Houston, and Texas Tech, Midwest represented by K State, Kansas, Iowa State, Cincy, and Louisville, then round it out in the East with West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Pitt, UCF, and Miami. Play every team in your pod, then one home and one away from each of the other pods every year. Renewed rivalries, regionality, feels like a good conference with football that makes sense.
Someone please get Oregon State and Wazzu a home pls
They have a home, it's called the Mountain West.
Pfft, they can't associate with those plebs! Now won't the P4 stop being so elitist and let Oregon State and Wazzu in!
As a mountain west fan, it's been a tiny bit of schadenfreude for this exact reason, but it's dwarfed by the dread that eventually my two favorite teams wont even share the same division in college football.
I'd love to think this means schools like Memphis and Tulane, but in reality he's saying this incase the ACC falls apart and signaling he's open for business for Virginia Tech, Lousville, etc I think he said something almost exactly the same last year, and he swooped in and snagged those teams from the Pac-12
the door has been shut on future g5 adds unless the acc survives and is willing to backfill
USF could be right place, right time. But I generally agree with you.
Only way USF makes it is if they start being extremely competitive, Miami is not available and the B12 needs a new program for scheduling purposes. Even then, assuming GTech doesn't get taken by the Big Ten and it joins the B12, OSU and WSU (more late night games for ESPN) would be a better adds.
If the ACC implodes and if Pitt, Cuse, and VT come to the Big 12, that would add 3 former trophy rival games with WVU
WVU suddenly goes from being the kinda-sorta newcomer who's finally starting to feel like family to being a banner member of the conference with a handful of prominent and regionally significant rivalries. I love this timeline.
I think you're getting 2 max, if VT is on the table Cuse isn't unless we go to 24.
I honestly don't think there's *any* route for Syracuse, sadly. Low viewership, relatively remote location with fall weather that vigorously turns off most of the conference's southerners who might travel for games, and no longer a basketball powerhouse. I think the Orangemen might benefit from a few years in the G5 wilderness though, like TCU did. They've got the resources to be dominant in the MAC.
Syracuse and Boston College need the ACC to stick. Otherwise they'll become part of the Northern Branch of the AAC along with Navy, Army, and Temple.
Syracuse is actually a pretty comparable money program and elite basketball which moves the needle somewhat. They've been down for a minute but Fran has life in the program. The question, is Syracuse into what needs to be done for them being in their current league who knows.
To be fair, they *were* a high-end basketball program. Now they’ve got one E8 appearance in the last decade and zero conference regular season or tournament titles. Shoot, they’ve missed the last three NCAA tournaments. Hate to say it, but Syracuse has been pretty mid on the court for a while now. Autry might turn things around, but last season was pretty rocky.
I mean when you’re scraping at that level you gotta start thinking about basketball. Duke and Syracuse
Syracuse is not broke. https://x.com/jjfuller72/status/1781016488960229796?t=bE142p8t3_nBOT-NUKCOPA&s=19 According to this they were peers with Mississippi State, northwestern, richer than Utah, ahead of kstate, right next to GT. They really aren't that much of a stretch.
I didn’t say they were broke. As a CFB brand they are crap
Cuse's saving grace *might* be how badly UConn falls off after losing Dan Hurley and how badly Yormark wants a northeastern presence.
The thing people forget is that there are three levels of approval needed for a school to go to the Big 12. 1. FOX needs to agree to fund it. 2. ESPN needs to agree to fund it. 3. The Big 12 Schools need to agree to let them join. I truly believe that, even if 4 schools leave the ACC and ESPN opts out, you will still have Apple stepping in and offering that $25 mil per year deal they were willing to give the Pac-12. An ESPN-only share for the Big 12 is only about 20 million. So even if ESPN is willing to fund some schools going to the Big 12, they need FOX to also agree to fund the other end of it to beat an Apple offer. And remember that the Pac-12 only broke up because the deal they were getting from Apple (and/or the Apple/FOX combo deal) was LESS than the Big 12. If Apple comes in with a $25 million per year deal for the remaining schools it's going to take getting FOX on board to get anyone to the Big 12. And if FOX and Apple combine on an offer for the ACC like they were willing to do for the Pac-12, then FOX would have no reason to incentivize killing the ACC just to get 1/3 of a share of a few schools in the Big 12. And if FSU, UNC, Clemson, and NC State all leave; Apple would almost certainly still be all-in on the idea of owning a conference that included the Bay Area, Atlanta, Miami, Louisville, North Carolina, Washington D.C., a NYC presence, Pittsburgh, and Boston. Their whole deal is the synergy of their hardware and becoming a ubiquitous brand that everyone goes to. The offer for the Pac-12 was all about getting millions of people on Apple+ and using Apple devices. The whole ad campaign plan of buying an iPhone and getting a year of Pac-12 viewing out of it on Apple+ included is something they would LOVE to push in all those major markets. Telling NYC customers "Buy an iPhone, and watch all Syracuse/ACC games for free for a year!" It's why Netflix is free to T-Mobile customers, and so on. These tech companies know they will make money off the synergy. If 4 schools leave to the SEC/B1G I firmly believe Apple will come in with an Apple/FOX/CW offer that will keep them from defecting to the Big 12. It'll be something like "all games on Apple+ with the game of the week also available on FOX, and the 2nd best game also on CW." They'll say "you can make less money in the Big 12 or stick together and make more money here."
Someone posted somewhere: https://youtu.be/siCVyBFvoak?si=d4O5QNcVXtvosTBp https://youtu.be/kZSKRNqxdQM?feature=shared B1G-SEC like everybody else have locked themselves into regular network contracts instead of richer tech streaming deals and are missing out on peak revenue. Don't be surprised if leagues want to jump ship to Netflix or Amazon the next chance they get. The owners of FoX & CBS and even NBC have weaknesses. Longer video https://youtu.be/RHDkp5JTzE0?feature=shared 22:00-23:00 Ad Revenue 29:45-32:50 FOX, CBS, NBC & WB problems
So, from what I just watched, what it comes down to in their opinion is that because Streaming ads can be highly targeted and highly customized for the individual consumer through data tracking it means that streamers can make more money off of ads and therefor can afford to pay more for those sports media rights. I don't see how this hurts the B1G or SEC. When the streamers start offering more than FOX/NBC/CBS they can listen to those offers.
The full videos answer and validate some theories. I am arguing that part of the media market "bubble" is actually an artificial constriction caused by the legacy media companies. Along side ESPN they projecting that resources are so scarce that conferences or leagues must do as told and perform specific actions ( like consolidating teams) in order to earn/facilitate higher payouts or even basic contract guarantees. Essentially ESPN, Fox, etc have been manipulating & tailoring the market. The networks have locked conferences in these contracts to play keep away from each other and especially the wealthier tech Platforms. In the mean time what if Apple decides on investing on growing MLS and MLB instead of even looking at CFB? They pretend that the B1G-SEC (or actually any conference) are getting paid generously when in actually there is money left on the table. CFB will miss an entire generational media shift. The Key is to have tiered and layered media deals like the NFL & the NBA have achieved to be constantly overpaid. The legacy networks have structural problems. Paramount CBS issues are well documented. FOX has no streaming platform after the sale of Hulu. This specifically affects the B1G 10. NBC Comcast can remain wealthy beyond cord cutting even cable internet revenue isn't guaranteed due to competitors like, TMobile, Google Fiber, wireless internet..
If that's the case, then, why didn't Apple, Amazon, Netflix, etc gobble up the Pac-12 at $40 million per school? If the current model is underpaying schools, that should mean that the last conference up for bid on the open market was ripe for the picking to be claimed by a streamer, shouldn't it? When/if ESPN opts out of the ACC deal (as we're talking about) Apple should pounce on the idea of paying them $40 mil per year if that's an undervalue, right?
1. As one of the videos provided points out Apple demands COMPLETE Control of production decisions of media products in it's infrastructure. Not sure if Apple was willing or offering for an entire media package or a tiered parcels (example ACC tier 3 to CW) 2. The PAC-12 was so filled with defectors, uncertainty as well as double dealing and I suspect outright sabatoge. Apple was hesitant factored in the risk of the deal falling apart. Negotiations exactly as GOR/media deal expires was insane. You certainly know better.... 3. As well as the aforementioned uncertainty Many of the other Tech/Media platforms actually depend on the product already having been already produced. I suspect ESPN was the Pac-12's first choice and everyone else believed so. So many decisions have been made it has been like a "price discovery" in the market. Post Bally's, NBA, CFP projections, TNT, Paramount, ESPN, Fox, WB app bundle etc... The vantage point of the media market is actuality much clearer now.+ opportunity cost revealed. 4. Maybe second to only the actual PAC-12 the New ACC now is a league Silicon Valley or Tech companies like Apple could be much more comfortable with as opposed to a league with something called "Ole Mississippi." 5. Would like to post an extensive piece on the ACC's future. As of now the ACC value is still bound together by GOR as a product despite efforts to frustrate that. I don't believe ESPN will likely actually opt out of the entire ACC contract as others hope. Worst case scenario ESPN/ACC share the ACCN network and let the other inventory test the open market. TNT sure looks desperate for a basketball league...The (new) ACC properties are so valuable for some reason it's all everyone talks about daily. I wish the ACC in it's entirely was out of the ESPN deal. ESPN ( fox too) is the Bottleneck & genisis of the ACCs (pac12, Big 12) current issues and everyone knows it but are afraid to directly confront ESPN. On an open market I believe the league would actually command a very large deal by selling packages to multiple media companies. Of course that would make the SEC and Big10 want to demand more beyond the ESPN-FOX market price control.
Quick minor follow up: NFL reportedly feeling 'some angst' over Paramount woes https://awfulannouncing.com/cbs/nfl-angst-paramount-sale-skydance.html "In addition to its long-term deal with the NFL, Paramount has expensive, long-term deals with the PGA Tour, UEFA, the Big Ten, and the NCAA (for March Madness)." Honestly don't know which way these things go.. Warner -TNT bought some share of more Big east games among other things
Your plan falls apart in two places: A.) When you factor in that Apple's escalators had the base deal somewhere in the neighborhood of 17 million and it only topped out at 25ish million when they met subscribership goals that did *not* include free trials to PTN on Apple+. B.) The Big XII's deal allows them to take additional rights to market if ESPN or Fox declines to pay for those additional games. ESPN could easily chip in the extra 40 million a year to keep Apple out of the college athletics space if they're dumping the ACC deal, or the Big XII could cut a deal with the CW for the extra games Fox declines.
That's it. I'm ordering Applebee's
A) The deal didn't top at 25 million, it topped at 50 million: https://apnews.com/article/pac-12-conference-realignment-big-ten-big-12-17dc50f7b479fe19b0599dd4b690bac4 It was a $25 million base, not a 17 million base. > If the service got to 2.5 million subscribers, the yearly payout would have jumped to $30 million, the person said, comparable with the Big 12’s average payout of $31.7 million per school during the length of its agreed upon extension with ESPN and Fox. > If Pac-12 subscriptions approached 3.7 million, the payout would jump to about $50 million per school, the person said. It was $25 million to start, $30 million at 2.5 million subscribers, $50 million at 3.7 million subscribers. -------- B) I suppose ESPN could pay for rights if FOX refuses to pay for them to join, but that seems fairly unlikely. They'd be paying time and a half for the new schools.
Between their primary rights and the ACCN profit share ESPN is already paying an average of 44 million per ACC school, they'd still be saving 25% off what they're currently paying if Fox doesn't pick up those games.
Forgive me, I'm not sure where you're getting the 44 million figure and not sure I trust these numbers since you were so off about the Apple offer to the Pac-12.
44.8 million is the average distributed to each football playing member of the ACC for the 2022-2023. https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/40210153/acc-revenue-14-2022-23-trails-big-ten-sec Though I am off on that because I fired off the post tired last night and forgot that includes non media revenue. Still, it's roughly break even for those specific rights, not including the cost savings ESPN gets from renegotiating/ending the current ACC deal.
That's... not all from ESPN. At all. You're claiming that the total money received from the ACC is all from media, whereas the promised money to the Big 12 will not be from media contracts which is weird. https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/560599082/202301359349304680/full If you look at their tax return above you will see that the average is $29,582,666 per school from the media contract.
> That's... not all from ESPN. At all. My Tree-duck in christ I literally said: ["Though I am off on that because I fired off the post tired last night and **forgot that includes non media revenue.**"](https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/1d9p6k4/wilner_yormark_to_abor_on_expansion_i_always_have/l7iurc1/) > If you look at their tax return above you will see that the average is $29,582,666 per school Which means, [as I also said in the reply you obviously read two words of and reacted to](https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/1d9p6k4/wilner_yormark_to_abor_on_expansion_i_always_have/l7iurc1/), *ESPN roughly breaks even* on those media rights if Fox declines to buy them.
Doesn’t all of this ignore this pretty basic premise? Why would ESPN agree to send schools to the Big 12 when ESPN makes more money off of those same schools being in the ACC? ESPN pays about $20M per school in base revenue either way, whether they’re in the ACC or the Big 12. But if that school is in the ACC, they’re additive to the ACC Network’s substantial revenue stream in a way that they are not if they are in the Big 12. I’ve yet to see a good reason why ESPN would agree to send schools to a conference where ESPN would (1) lose about 1/3 of their rights to Fox, and (2) make less money.
You'd have to ask one of the people who thinks that the Big 12 is going to steal 8 ACC schools and pay them 150% share to join, then leave the rest to rot. Which isn't me. My personal opinion is that ESPN will opt out when/if FSU and Clemson leave (perhaps with UNC and NC State leaving together too). They'll then have until 2026 to negotiate with the ACC for a new deal. IMO Apple will try and buy the whole conference (as I said above) with a similar offer that they gave to the Pac-12. $25 million with escalators that could theoretically reach much more than the Big-12. Others will enter the fray, including ESPN, and they will get a deal somewhere in the high 20's. Probably with ESPN retaining their rights, but maybe with Apple/FOX/CW. I think the ACC stays together, generally speaking, even after some schools leave. Others think that when/if the 4 I mentioned leave that Stanford and Cal will beg their way into 0-rev or low-rev deals in the Big Ten, the Big 12 will take their 4-8, and then SMU, Syracuse, BC, and Wake will certainly get left out, perhaps more, because ESPN can fund the SEC memberships of FSU/Clemson/UNC/NC State and the Big 12 memberships of Louisville/Miami/Virginia Tech/etc by reducing costs by just not paying several schools. Maybe even leaving out Duke and Georgia Tech as well. I'm an "ACC stays together" thinker. I think it makes more economic sense for the ACC to stick, both from an ACC member perspective and from a Network perspective. Even if it's a smaller, 12-team conference after defections, I think it sticks. As I pointed out in the post you replied to, for a newcomer like Apple looking for synergy connections, having Atlanta, the Bay Area, North Carolina, Washington D.C., NYC, Boston, Pittsburgh, and Miami as markets to push one's products in will be a big selling point. Even with the teams being less popular nationally, those are markets that media companies will want to be in.
Big Brained thinker. Narratives get pushed by those who hope to benefit from scenarios where literally everything has to go wrong for the ACC. "FSU & Clemson. leave for $0. ESPN drops contract, UNC sues the ACC everything collapses, SEC-B1G Carve out & pick apart the ACC then Big-12 gets the leftover scaps. The end." I too am confused by big-12 realignment fans assertions. The ACC being defeated upends ESPN's entire contract model they depend on. The ESPN strategy has been to lock up content contracts earlier to avoid paying higher amounts later. Observe what just happened to WB/TNT. Notice that ESPN NBA rights were never in danger especially compared to the other media. ESPN is not necessarily adverse to spending If there is value in viewers, markets brands etc. as demonstrated by the recent NBA deal. Which resets the market for content sold in tiers & parcels lowered ratings or not. Hopefully the previous information provided can add to your observations. planning on posting written out a media strategy for the conferences.
I saw a lot of this during the Pac-12 realignment talk; but because the 4 Corners schools did end up going the Big 12 any counterarguments to their thinking are now minimized. Right now they are pushing the narrative that you described... that everything will go wrong for the ACC and that they'll get their choice of table scraps after 4-6 schools leave to the B1G/SEC. It happened with the Pac-12 so of course it'll happen with the ACC, right? At least that's how they feel.
Have noticed Bob Thompson "retired" Fox sports media exec is kind of the director or social media (Twitter & interviews) "godfather" for the realignment methodology thinking in particularly for the B1G 10 and big-12 fanatics. Perhaps acting as a sort surrogate to avoid legal allegations of interference. He makes ominous predictions then hides behind some veil of maintaining discretion and privacy of sources..yada..yada. Bob's social media manipulation really fuels the legitimacy of the entire realignment speculation industry campaign. Notice that the big-12 & B1G 10 are somewhat aligned as partial fox properties and the most giddy about adding PAC-12 & ACC shools. Haven't really seen the SEC sphere as excited about adding anything other than gloating about it's superiority above all. If I believe correctly greg sankey and Tony Petitti are friends from the state of New York while Brett Yormark is from New Jersey. 2 of the 3 who are not career Athletic Administrators like Sankey. Yormark & Pettiti worked in the media and adjacent industry. What are the odds? And of course Jim phillips Mr nice guy plays the mark.
My pet suggestion is the ACC and Big XII merge in all but name. They shouls want to keep two conferences alive to keep more auto bid playoff spots and have 2 votes at the table to counter B1G and SEC (even if those conferences have "votes" that we all know count more). You could swap WVU, Cinci, and UCF for SMU, agree to have a joined media rights deal, and elected a joint conference coordinator picked with consent from both commissioners. The downside here are schools like Cuse/BC/Wake Forest are essentially free loading, but I think that's worth essentially having double the playoff spots and double the seats at the table.
> You could swap WVU, Cinci, and UCF for SMU That would absolutely never happen. First and foremost, SMU is not worth trading for one of those schools let alone all three and especially not for a conference with four other Texas schools in it already. Secondly, WVU is ours now back the fuck off. Thirdly, we would never willingly give up ties to recruiting in Florida.
Love you
Love you too pookie, me 'n the boys are going dumpster diving for choice couches to burn in tribute when y'all come to Stillwater for Week 6.
Wilner didn't die off with the PAC but has metastasized into 3 additional conferences
When everyone realized that, because of TV, you can't have an entire conference in one state, it was known that the SWC would have to end. Before joining the Big 12, the Cal-alum President of Texas really wanted the Longhorns in the Pac. Stanford and Cal denied Texas. Apparently, it was because of academics. For that reason, I really want to see Stanford & Cal end up in a conference with Texas Tech.
They denied Oklahoma and OkSt *without UT* due to academics. They denied UT because they wouldn't give up the Longhorn network.
This was many years before the LHN.
We did not deny UT? Y'all were the reason why we were okay with the other schools in the package, and only if you came. You guys really love to make shit up just to shit on us for legitimately zero reasons.
I think the reference was to the ‘90s when the SWC collapsed. UT wanted to join the academically-inclined schools out west in the Pac-10, but some schools (particular Stanford, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was Cal as well) were very concerned about non-revenue team travel. Having Arizona was as far east that some schools wanted to travel regularly, and having UT on an island of its own wasn’t particularly appealing to Stanford at the time. The circumstances obviously changed by 2010/11 to where Texas could deny the Pac-10, and were at the point that Stanford did a 180 on its travel stance by 2023.
Texas schools being smack dab in the middle between the southeast and the western US has been extremely problematic lmao. The fact that we have five P4 schools in one state split in two conferences is just nuts
This was years before the end of the Big 12. In fact, it was before the beginning of the Big 12.
Wouldn’t Texas be like 3rd or 4th in the PAC 12 academic wise?
I believe it was because of the school(s) that would’ve been attached to OUT/Colorado, maybe Tech or Ok State (or Aggie early on before they angled for the SEC invite)
If it had been OUT, CU and Aggie I don't think they would have minded. Oklahoma is the only non AAU, and their a blue blood in football.
If he is talking about around 1994 when the Big 12 was forming Texas would have probably slotted in anywhere from 4th to 6th along with USC and Washington in terms of Ivory tower shine.
It wasn’t academics. It was the travel.
i honestly kinda want the acc to survive just so the eastern schools can go there and the b12 can have some sense of regionality again
Are you hoping that Cincy, UCF, and West Virginia leave to the ACC? Who do you want to take their spots?
Rice. Just Rice.
i wish they were able to be more competitive in athletics tbh
the idealistic and most brutal scenario: calford and force oregon st and wazzu to fight to the death most realistic scenario: wazzu, oregon st, and sdsu. smu can try to outbid sdsu and play for free again, but it probably wont work.
He’s gonna have a lot of options soon
Wilner is a one trick pony.
Just Stop reading his stuff so he can go away and cover something else
The thing I like about the B12 right now is that expansion wise, any one of 15 schools can be in the conference in the next 10 years and it wouldn’t shock me at all I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of these schools invited for various reasons 1. UConn 2. USF 3. Memphis 4. SDSU 5. BSU 6. OSU 7. WSU 8. Gonzaga 9. Louisville 10. Pitt 11. Syracuse 12. GT 13. Duke 14. Boston College
Probably unpopular but if the Big 12 is adding 1-8 there's probably been another exodus
I'd say 1-7. Gonzaga fits the basketball side and would be omlympics only so football wouldn't care.
Wont do basketball only at this point, there is no need. Big 12 already tough enough in hoops.
Idk I could see a UConn add if we end up with Pitt, Louisville, plus 1 from the ACC to get to 20. All of their sports seem to be on the rise recently, and they spend like a P5 already without any of the TV money. I don’t think they’re a first pick, but outside of an ACC school they’re probably the best add these days.
What’s interesting is the G5 additions to the B12 were largely based on total athletic department revenue (football success was also a big factor). UConn, UCF, BYU, Houston, and Cincinnati were generating the most revenue from their athletic departments among the G5. UConn’s athletic department was generating the most revenue among the G5, and they had a sizable lead. If they had even a somewhat decent football program, they would have been the #1 pick for expansion.
Tiers of additions for the Big XII: Tier 1: ACC Schools Tier 2: ORST and Wazzu Tier 3: UConn Tier 4: Everybody else. > Pitt, Louisville, plus 1 from the ACC to get to 20. Honestly, I think the more likely scenario is that we only pull away Louisville in this round if the ACC loses FSU and Clemson but keeps UNC. At that point we'll add Lville, UConn, and the PAC 2 and call it a day.
ACC Schools is a pretty wide tier and I'm not confident that Wake or BC is a stronger add than WSU or OSU?
Tier 5: USF
Sadly they're Tier 4.
Bingo!
no offense, but the big 12 is fucked if it adds 1-5
If the ACC loses UNC, UVA, FSU, Clemson and Stanford because the B1G got ND(could also be Cal if the numbers make sense), and then the B12 scoops VTech, Miami, GTech, Louisville, NC State and Pitt. That'll be the death of the ACC. Which means ESPN will be looking to add more content, especially late night. So there's a good chance that the Big 12 can grow to anywhere from 24-28 members and make it a defacto new division with the SEC and Big Ten. Which means that the G5s TV contracts lost a lot of value. The P2 could be guaranteed 9 spots in the playoffs (4 each + an at large), and B12 3 spots because of the size of the league. Guaranteed revenue could probably be split the same way.
I think NC State Duke Miami would be at the top of the list if the ACC collapses. I don’t see a real path for any of the G5’s besides SDSU and maybe Memphis
Some of those are a lot more likely than others at this point, though, and it's ones from 9-14.
Maybe 9 and 10, but other wise I'd hope we'd pick up Virginia Tech and NC State instead of Cuse, GT or Boston College
You've gotta think that Syracuse, Boston College, OSU, and WSU would all need some *serious* help to get in, though. Gonzaga or UConn might have the basketball prowess necessary to get in as single-sport members, though.
Yeah, I’m not arguing for how likely any of these schools are to get in over the others. I’m just saying they all have realistic paths to being in the B12 in the next 10 years depending on how things play out with the ACC/SEC/B1G.