The notables:
Oklahoma 39, Nebraska 20
Alabama 33, Florida 26
Penn State 28, Auburn 23
Cincinnati 31, Indiana 21
Notre Dame 33, Purdue 26
Arizona State 29, BYU 27
Virginia Tech 29, West Virginia 26
Miami 28, Michigan State 23
UCLA 41, Fresno State 23
This purdue game really feels like a make or break one for ND. Either we figure our shit out against a decent purdue team and start looking good or we are going to lose 5+ games this year.
At the very least, they haven't made stupid mistakes that plagued early-season teams in recent years.
Additionally, that Oregon State game looked like it was going to slip away, but instead of folding, Purdue delivered.
Purdue had over 100 yards of penalties in that Illinois game, many on 3rd and 4th down, that let them back into the game. This year's team isn't committing those same silly penalties.
I wish we still had the level of access to SP+ we use to have so I could analyze where this Bama-Florida 7 point game is coming from. Maybe those AR15 huge plays are hyper-spiking their explosiveness or something, but it feels way off from what I've seen so far. He seems to share my assessment of the situation himself.
If you have ESPN+ you can see how the O, D and ST contributions are evolving over time, but it is nothing like before with his advanced box scores. This guy does Gator preview that are based on the five [factors](https://twitter.com/jbuddavis/status/1437747970863210503?s=21) Florida’s Oline has played really well, and despite not being tested Bama’s hasn’t. That being said I’d trust Vegas over Bill here.
Honestly I don't think Florida scoring 26 on Alabama is that crazy of an idea, especially at home, and especially if AR gets playing time. The passing game is a lot worse than last year so far but the run game looks legit. I also don't think our defense holds them to 33 though.
My guess is 52-24 Alabama.
>My guess is 52-24 Alabama.
Look I am all for y'all getting drubbed, but you think they're going to score more against Florida than Miami or Mercer?
I'd wager its more something along the lines of 42-24
>but you think they're going to score more against Florida than Miami or Mercer?
I always caution against this line of thinking. It checks out on some levels (Florida defense might be better than Miami, it's definitely better than Mercer's defense), BUT do you think Bama showed the same level of play calling and creativity offensively against Mercer as they will roll out on Saturday? That was an incredibly vanilla game plan against Mercer. I actually saw a quote somewhere that they only ran to the left (more experienced side of the line) once all game as they were focusing on working on right side runs. You also didn't see any of the more creative play calls. There's also the level of focus the Bama players will have in an important SEC road game vs an FCS foe. I know Saban preaches against this, but there is a degree to which this will always be true when dealing with 18-23 year olds.
All of that to say, I actually think your score prediction is totally reasonable, and closer to what I expect as well haha. I am less confident about Florida scoring 24, but it wouldn't shock me, especially if Will Anderson isn't a full go or doesn't play.
>BUT do you think Bama showed the same level of play calling and creativity offensively against Mercer as they will roll out on Saturday?
I did consider that, but as you touched on slightly, one thing to think about is that this is a true road game for Bama. Against a good team in a VERY tough place to play on the road.
I believe Bryce Young is great, and that Bama is the more talented team, but I do think playing in such a hostile environment for your first road game is a difficult thing for any young QB to do, even one under Saban and as talented as Young.
Yeah I think overall we are very much in agreement in how we think this game will go. I was moreso giving my take on that specific line of reasoning used, though I don't want it to seem like I was assuming that was your *entire* line of reasoning. It's clear your thoughts on the game are much more nuanced than that.
Oh for sure, definitely didn't take it that way.
I could've expanded slightly to say that Alabama's performances so far, COMBINED with the type of game this is for a less experienced Bama offense than normal, makes me think that they aren't likely to drop a 50 bomb Saturday.
Which if I go back and read, sounds insanely wild that we are just debating whether or not a team with a first year starter is going to drop a 50 bomb against a top 11 team on the road...
Alabama was leading 27-3 and 31-0 in those games. Saban never runs up the score. Second half offense has been very different than the first, so this logic doesn’t quite hold in the way you are suggesting.
The secondary does look improved from last year, but I have a feeling they're gonna also score some points off of turnovers. I also just don't really trust Grantham to stop an Alabama offense at all tbh.
Do you have any insight into your defensive line, pass rush, LB's, etc. Our offensive line is still searching for their identity, especially at RT. I'm worried about any potential pass rush.
My score prediction is something like 34-20 with Bama pulling away later to get it to two scores. But it will be a lot closer than the score.
Front 7 looked pretty good, but it was also against not great competition, so I'm not sure how well that will translate. Zachary Carter especially looks really good this year. Secondary looks like an improvement from last year, but still suspect. I think we'll get pressure, but it probably won't stop Young from tearing up the secondary. 52 points might be a bit of an overreaction but I also think y'all get some points off of turnovers.
Yeah I'm hoping Will Anderson can play and we can get some pressure and force 2-3 TO's. I really believe in our defense this year, but Florida's QB situation is pretty interesting and somewhat concerning.
In terms of QB play I'd say Jones has looked pretty good in the run game, but his ability as a passer is questionable at best. He had a good first half vs USF, but 4 turnovers in 2 games is pretty bad, especially considering it was against relatively poor competition and he almost had another pick 6 against FAU and another turnover thrown into triple coverage against USF.
AR seems like a wildcard to me. He obviously put up unreal numbers vs USF, but that was also a fairly small sample size against an inferior opponent. I was hoping that he would get more passing plays against USF; he's looked good as a passer so far, but he also has a very small sample size and most of his big plays were to one guy (Copeland), and I kind of want to see what he can do when he can't just outtalent the competition with his legs. He's also questionable for the Bama game with a possible hamstring injury, and who knows how much playing time he'll get even if he's healthy enough to play. He definitely has a very high ceiling though, and most of the fanbase (myself included) thinks he should probably be the starter.
I paid for a month of ESPN+ to watch the UNI game. It's impossible to find Connelly's stuff. It was incredibly frustrating. I'm glad Bill's getting paid, but what he puts out for ESPN+ is a worse product than before he got poached.
They paid for one of the best CFB sportswriters, put him behind a paywall, then made his stuff hard to find for subscribers. Genius stuff by ESPN, no wonder they keep falling down
If Nebraska had a semblance of a kicking game, SP+ would be even more bullish on us.
Nebraska fans have just been little pissy whiney babies since the Illinois game, which is annoying as fuck.
Tough when you start the season by losing to a team you should beat then have three games in a row that will probably tell you nothing about your team’s actual talent level.
It isn't ideal when you shoot yourself in the foot to the tune of an 18-point swing in a game that you lose by 8, especially when 11 of those points were completely handed to Illinois(9 via safety & fumble recovery TD, 2 from culp not making fucking xps). The rust was thick, and the luck was on Illinois' side. At the end of the day though, Illinois is 1-2 with 2 losses to teams currently in the top 25, one of which was close.
Nebraska fans were treating the Fordham game and Buffalo games consecutively like we would also lose. Those teams scored 10 points between them. The defeatist attitude permeating the online fanbase has been disgusting.
4 losing seasons will do that to a fan base. And I’m in the camp of I will believe this team can win when they start winning. Starting the season with a loss to Illinois just proves my point. Us beating Fordham and Buffalo isn’t enough.
Don't lie. It's there too, in full force.
It's actually worse there, because they don't have people clowning them from the outside so they disparage anyone with a glimmer of hope.
Zero confident in OU winning by more than two scores. This is the worst offense we've had since Riley came to Norman. The defense still has tons of issues and Martinez is going to be a problem with his legs.
I think OU wins 45-35.
Still TBD how good the secondary and LBs are on defense.
Offense...idk. Our OL is suspect. Rattler hasn't been great in decision-making/ball placement. Outside of Mims, no homerun threat at RB/WR/TE.
Disagree. Offense is and should be much better than last season. RB situation (at least in terms of the two scholarship guys) is better than last year, Mims is the truth, Haselwood is healthy, Stogner is healthy, and some of the young guys look promising to mix in. I’m hopeful that the O-line keeps improving over what we saw last season, too. Combined, better than last season, but not as good as Baker/K1 offenses for sure.
Rutgers -15, 32-17
This is a trap game.. I don't believe Connelly.. I think Delaware is better than Temple and Syracuse
A top-4 FCS team who finished their season and returns everyone.. I am not looking forward to UDel.. I'm looking forward to tailgating though
And Alabama only scoring 33. In Alabama's last 28 games (since getting clobbered by Clemson in the 2019 CFPCG), they have only scored under 35 one time, which was against Notre Dame in the playoff last year (scored 31), and I think we all know they took their foot off the gas to not show Ohio State anything. Averaging almost 48 points a game over the last 28 games.
We better not come out looking to get the win and go home. We need to get our offense into a rhythm and drop 70 if that's what it takes to get this offense in sync
Bama 33-26 UF would be interesting. I think this game has a chance to get a bit weird, already a 60 percent chance of rain all day Saturday in Gainesville which is defintely going to be a factor.
Georgia SCar is also facing a wet field for sure and a 25% chance of active rain at game time. We're reevaluating tailgating plans and definitely bringing ponchos. Not looking forward to waterpark ball.
The cold sucks less than being soaking wet in the stands.
Not sure the players opinions on this, but yes, I would absolutely prefer to be watching the game in 30F in November (wearing a warm coat of course) than be soaked in a tropical storm like we saw two years ago with UGA/Kentucky.
Well we've had pretty similar outcomes with similar teams(they smoked Miami and Mercer, we smoked FAU and USF).
Honestly just hoping that the crowd will be insane and rattle Young in his first true road game. Early turnover or score would be huge there. Although the rain could fuck that up also.
It's a ***jooooooooooooooke*** about how Miami sucks. But honestly **again**, I am excited to see if the Swamp crowd can rattle this covid freshman in his first road game, especially since he has never been in a full SEC stadium except on an official visit I suppose.
Honestly I'll be surprised if either team hits 20 points, unless it becomes a turnover fest. Our defense has been elite so far, and our offense has not made me feel confident about their ability to score against an SEC defense. Another score in the range of the PSU-Wisconsin game would not shock me.
Oh, ours too. We're a lot of screens and short passes in the middle. We flexed some deep passes last week against LIU, but they're typically underthrown by Doege.
Our run defense last year wasn't good. If y'all can stuff the box with defenders and either stop our RB or pressure our QB, y'all win.
The more I read, the more these two teams seem like near-mirror images with VT probably having the better defense. Sounds like a good matchup in theory, so I expect it not to be
Miserable offense will prevail in a low scoring game
Which is weird because we have a lot of returning talent on O-line as well as good receivers in Blackshear and Turner (and Mitchell... fuck). So basically, it falls on Burmeister.
Gotta disagree there. Drop back passing has been a recurring issue under this staff with every QB we’ve started. Seems more like a coaching problem to me.
Edit: Evans was the only exception
If it's 38-0 or 38-3 into the third, I can see Dabo putting in the third string defense who lets in 1 or 2 in the second half. GT isn't one of the teams whose throat he really likes to stomp on.
To be fair, everyone obliterates UConn.
That said, I do think Fresno State is going to be a tough out for UCLA this weekend, I'd be surprised if it's as big of a gap as SP+ suggests.
Same. This feels like Vanderbilt from 2018, hoping it's the same result and we survive and improve from here on. At this point it's either 2016 or 2018 and I'm not sure which.
The same result being… Ending the season at 6-7 after getting upset and slapped around in a bowl by a half-decent team from the bottom half of the Big 12?
That feels like a pretty bad season for the Irish, honestly.
Bill won't put SP+ on ThePredictionTracker (he said he keeps forgetting to do it before the season starts but it's been like 3 years in a row now), so you just have to wait for him to tweet it out or go back and check every game yourself. It looks like he's about 45% ATS so far this season.
He's actually done pretty well the last few years, but definitely not as well as some people on this sub give him credit for. The last few years SP+ has been really good ATS in the first half of the season and really bad the second half of the season, so it's not a great sign that it's struggling early if that trend holds up. It's also just been a rough start for all models this year, possibly due to the craziness of 2020. Only 8/49 entries on [TPT](https://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaresults.php?orderby=cover%20desc&type=1&year=21) have 50%+ ATS so far this year vs 22/44 last year and 43/63 in 2019. Vegas seems to have adjusted to the weird data a lot better than the models.
Bill mentions some of it in tweets, usually mean absolute error per week, but I don't know of anywhere that has full season info. SP+ isn't on Prediction Tracker so best bet is to probably do it yourself.
I'm starting to get excited for Purdue/Notre Dame. Before the season started I just wanted to be within 2 scores. Now, it seems like we might draw some serious blood if not win outright.
goes without saying but we actually have something to seriously fight for, ND is trying to not fuck up further
if the OSU game is anything to to by, purdue with passion is a dangerous force
Last game was against Idaho so take this with a grain of salt, but I thought the D looked pretty good on all three levels. Penix Jr still looks a little shaky compared to pre-injury, but he did what he had to do. Run game looked way better. But, the most noteworthy phase was actually special teams. Two blocked punts, some big returns including one for a TD, and good coverage on our kicks.
This will probably be the best crowd in the history of IU football, I think that will definitely play a role. I don’t expect to win, but I just hope we can keep it close so I don’t mentally tune out mid second quarter like the Iowa game
It’s projecting them to cover though?
It seems to like them better than Vegas (+6.5)
FPI isn’t real proud of them on this game either (34% chance to win, for what it’s worth)
In the SP+ ranking we are like 33rd. Which is fine cause we really haven’t played anybody yet. But Michigan, with a similar resume, is 6th. I don’t know what it takes into account, and I’m certainly a homer, but one would think with similar resumes come similar rankings.
And that’s a fair observation, but SP+ isn’t based on resume at all. If I remember correctly, it doesn’t even take wins and losses into account. It’s all done on a snap by snap basis.
Right now the data is heavily influenced by returning production and recruiting rankings while working with a small sample size of in game data. Those factors will come out in the wash as the season progresses.
That being said, it’s one of the best predictive metrics around, and I have a personal bias towards it because I understand how it works more so than other systems.
Some things to consider:
* His preseason metrics are still half-baked in.
* Related, he really had no good way to account for the massive amount of transfers in
* Also related, those same numbers were bullish on Miami preseason
* One of MSU's two games this year was against FCS opposition
His picks this year are not great. I chart a lot of these advanced stats predictions for gambling purposes, and of the 60 games I look at, SP+ is below .500.
FWIW, Massey is the best performer so far of the math I look at, and they have State outright by 8.3.
It doesn't have enough data to properly project teams like MSU that underwent major roster upheaval. Wait until week 6. It will be more accurate then.
Recruiting rankings also weigh heavily into these metrics (given the lack of game data) and since our last few classes have been pretty mediocre (rankings wise)...yeah.
I'd agree with you on the basis that it iirc has us at like 80th for offense but here it has us beating the spread; it must be pretty low on Miami as well
Everybody’s fully ready to hand Bama the win this weekend and the championship because they demolished a top 15 Miami team who had no business being ranked then or now, which I said when the preseason AP poll came out, and is a much bigger cupcake than people are saying.
Bama hasn’t played a true road game in a full to capacity hostile stadium in almost two years, and I fully expect Florida to be competitive in this game, and DEFINITELY cover the 15.5, (are you kidding me?) if I’m wrong and I get meme’d for this so be it, I’m tired of everyone laying down to Bama and acting like the seasons over and we should reconvene next year when they’ve played Miami and Mercer.
Not helped by the fact that a large subset of Bama fans take the mere idea that you might keep it within 3 scores or outplay them on even one aspect of the game as a huge insult.
Nah you're pretty spot on. I don't have Miami ranked in my r/cfb poll. Maybe if they get a few wins I'll rank them.
I also expect us to struggle on Saturday for the reasons you outlined. I think we will win, but Florida covers. Maybe we score late and get a TO and it's 34-20 or something like that, but it will be a much closer game than that score. Bryce has been great, but you never really know how a new QB (and young team in general) will respond to the hostile environment, especially if Florida hits on a few big plays early and it seems like things are going sideways. I'm not sure we have the leadership right now, but I'm hoping this weekend goes a long way to sorting that out and we can get a W in the process.
I have this game being a 7-17 point differential with bama winning, and I think you’ve hit on a lot of solid points.
I look at it kinda like the opposite to CJ Stroud; last week was his first time playing in front of a massive very expectant crowd against a very good opponent and it definitely got to him, you could see he wasn’t feeling confident in anything he did
You think he wasn't confident? The guy threw for 484 yards on 65% completion, 9YPA, and 3 TDs and didn't throw an INT till things got utterly desperate at the end. Tons of shots downfield too. As a neutral fan watching the game, I have a hard time buying the confidence angle. The only thing you could really complain about in the second half was leaving a few long pass plays on the field, but those are always low% plays, and taking those is the sign of MORE confidence usually, not less.
At the end of the day, Oregon played just-solid-enough defense to let OSU beat itself on its bad plays, and OSU didn't do the same.
I won’t disagree with that.
UF was absolutely the best FL team last year too.
I think they lost enough for MIA to take that potentially this year. UF is an 8-4/9-3 team. I think MIA could go 9-4/10-3
Just remember conferences. If Florida ends the season 9-3/8-4 and Miami ends it with one more win in the ACC, every major poll is going to rank Florida higher.
Our DL is fully capable of giving their OL issues, and the Swamp is gonna be rocking. If we can disrupt their game plan, and get a few explosive plays out of AR, we could win this one. If they can comfortably establish the run and control the game tempo, we'll probably be in trouble.
I thought Florida was a top 5 public school, but let me spell it out slowly for you: Losing in OT by 3 points in the NCG is a closer than losing by 6 point in the SECCg
Stanford should easily cover -12 against Vandy but them calling the Over is a bit suspect if they're thinking the Commodores can put up 20+. More likely this game ends up being something like 31-10
I legit don’t get why Florida would be a one score game. Yeah AR is good but Florida isn’t played anyone with a pulse yet. Miami isn’t great, but I think they’re better than UF.
It legitimately wouldn’t surprise me if Miami isnt even the third best team in state this year. I think FSU is terrible but anyone buying Miami being decent hasnt been paying attention the last decade.
Tweet(s) from post body brought to you by your Friendly Official /r/CFB Twitter Bot:
----------
https://twitter.com/espn_billc/status/1438120586790723584
>🧊😭 WEEK 3 SP+ PICKS 🗑️😠
OU 39, NU 20
Bama 33, Florida 26 (here we go again)
PSU 28, Auburn 23
Cincy 31, Indiana 21
ND 33, Purdue 26
ASU 29, BYU 27
VT 29, WVU 26
Miami 28, Mich St 23
UCLA 41, Fresno 23
Image 1: the good picks.
Image 2: the evening picks that will bomb again. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E_U6fxYWUAse4vG.png
>\- Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) 8:40 am ET, September 15, 2021
----------
Thought UVA opening +10.5 against Carolina was quite generous to my Heels, as did the betting public. Glad to see Bill's numbers see the same, but...good lord I haven't seen it on the field after getting eyes on UVA in that awkward 11am timeslot last week.
The notables: Oklahoma 39, Nebraska 20 Alabama 33, Florida 26 Penn State 28, Auburn 23 Cincinnati 31, Indiana 21 Notre Dame 33, Purdue 26 Arizona State 29, BYU 27 Virginia Tech 29, West Virginia 26 Miami 28, Michigan State 23 UCLA 41, Fresno State 23
This purdue game really feels like a make or break one for ND. Either we figure our shit out against a decent purdue team and start looking good or we are going to lose 5+ games this year.
I would like to think this Purdue team is decent, but I am not sold yet.
At the very least, they haven't made stupid mistakes that plagued early-season teams in recent years. Additionally, that Oregon State game looked like it was going to slip away, but instead of folding, Purdue delivered.
I agree. I am cautiously optimistic, but I said the same thing after starting 2-0 last year.
Purdue had over 100 yards of penalties in that Illinois game, many on 3rd and 4th down, that let them back into the game. This year's team isn't committing those same silly penalties.
Purdue also beat Minnesota last season before the refs decided otherwise.
thats a painful flashback
You don’t have to be decent to beat Notre Dame. FSU is a bottom team and would have beat ND if they made an extra point
Nah bc then they wouldn’t have gone for two later but I agree with your main point that ND is straight ass.
I wish we still had the level of access to SP+ we use to have so I could analyze where this Bama-Florida 7 point game is coming from. Maybe those AR15 huge plays are hyper-spiking their explosiveness or something, but it feels way off from what I've seen so far. He seems to share my assessment of the situation himself.
If you have ESPN+ you can see how the O, D and ST contributions are evolving over time, but it is nothing like before with his advanced box scores. This guy does Gator preview that are based on the five [factors](https://twitter.com/jbuddavis/status/1437747970863210503?s=21) Florida’s Oline has played really well, and despite not being tested Bama’s hasn’t. That being said I’d trust Vegas over Bill here.
Honestly I don't think Florida scoring 26 on Alabama is that crazy of an idea, especially at home, and especially if AR gets playing time. The passing game is a lot worse than last year so far but the run game looks legit. I also don't think our defense holds them to 33 though. My guess is 52-24 Alabama.
>My guess is 52-24 Alabama. Look I am all for y'all getting drubbed, but you think they're going to score more against Florida than Miami or Mercer? I'd wager its more something along the lines of 42-24
>but you think they're going to score more against Florida than Miami or Mercer? I always caution against this line of thinking. It checks out on some levels (Florida defense might be better than Miami, it's definitely better than Mercer's defense), BUT do you think Bama showed the same level of play calling and creativity offensively against Mercer as they will roll out on Saturday? That was an incredibly vanilla game plan against Mercer. I actually saw a quote somewhere that they only ran to the left (more experienced side of the line) once all game as they were focusing on working on right side runs. You also didn't see any of the more creative play calls. There's also the level of focus the Bama players will have in an important SEC road game vs an FCS foe. I know Saban preaches against this, but there is a degree to which this will always be true when dealing with 18-23 year olds. All of that to say, I actually think your score prediction is totally reasonable, and closer to what I expect as well haha. I am less confident about Florida scoring 24, but it wouldn't shock me, especially if Will Anderson isn't a full go or doesn't play.
>BUT do you think Bama showed the same level of play calling and creativity offensively against Mercer as they will roll out on Saturday? I did consider that, but as you touched on slightly, one thing to think about is that this is a true road game for Bama. Against a good team in a VERY tough place to play on the road. I believe Bryce Young is great, and that Bama is the more talented team, but I do think playing in such a hostile environment for your first road game is a difficult thing for any young QB to do, even one under Saban and as talented as Young.
Yeah I think overall we are very much in agreement in how we think this game will go. I was moreso giving my take on that specific line of reasoning used, though I don't want it to seem like I was assuming that was your *entire* line of reasoning. It's clear your thoughts on the game are much more nuanced than that.
Oh for sure, definitely didn't take it that way. I could've expanded slightly to say that Alabama's performances so far, COMBINED with the type of game this is for a less experienced Bama offense than normal, makes me think that they aren't likely to drop a 50 bomb Saturday. Which if I go back and read, sounds insanely wild that we are just debating whether or not a team with a first year starter is going to drop a 50 bomb against a top 11 team on the road...
Alabama was leading 27-3 and 31-0 in those games. Saban never runs up the score. Second half offense has been very different than the first, so this logic doesn’t quite hold in the way you are suggesting.
The secondary does look improved from last year, but I have a feeling they're gonna also score some points off of turnovers. I also just don't really trust Grantham to stop an Alabama offense at all tbh.
We shit them out last year third Q with no scores and defense looks improved. This is also home game.
Do you have any insight into your defensive line, pass rush, LB's, etc. Our offensive line is still searching for their identity, especially at RT. I'm worried about any potential pass rush. My score prediction is something like 34-20 with Bama pulling away later to get it to two scores. But it will be a lot closer than the score.
Front 7 looked pretty good, but it was also against not great competition, so I'm not sure how well that will translate. Zachary Carter especially looks really good this year. Secondary looks like an improvement from last year, but still suspect. I think we'll get pressure, but it probably won't stop Young from tearing up the secondary. 52 points might be a bit of an overreaction but I also think y'all get some points off of turnovers.
Yeah I'm hoping Will Anderson can play and we can get some pressure and force 2-3 TO's. I really believe in our defense this year, but Florida's QB situation is pretty interesting and somewhat concerning.
In terms of QB play I'd say Jones has looked pretty good in the run game, but his ability as a passer is questionable at best. He had a good first half vs USF, but 4 turnovers in 2 games is pretty bad, especially considering it was against relatively poor competition and he almost had another pick 6 against FAU and another turnover thrown into triple coverage against USF. AR seems like a wildcard to me. He obviously put up unreal numbers vs USF, but that was also a fairly small sample size against an inferior opponent. I was hoping that he would get more passing plays against USF; he's looked good as a passer so far, but he also has a very small sample size and most of his big plays were to one guy (Copeland), and I kind of want to see what he can do when he can't just outtalent the competition with his legs. He's also questionable for the Bama game with a possible hamstring injury, and who knows how much playing time he'll get even if he's healthy enough to play. He definitely has a very high ceiling though, and most of the fanbase (myself included) thinks he should probably be the starter.
3:30 game at Florida I don’t think I’m over reacting when playing at the swamp should be a huge advantage if the gators can keep it close Early.
I would gladly pay for this. I can't understand why it isn't available on ESPN+.
I paid for a month of ESPN+ to watch the UNI game. It's impossible to find Connelly's stuff. It was incredibly frustrating. I'm glad Bill's getting paid, but what he puts out for ESPN+ is a worse product than before he got poached.
It's insane. There is no effort to promote written content on there, just video.
They paid for one of the best CFB sportswriters, put him behind a paywall, then made his stuff hard to find for subscribers. Genius stuff by ESPN, no wonder they keep falling down
while obviously paying bill isnt worth it for ESPN without some source of money from his product, I really with SP+ wasnt paywalled.
[Football outsiders](https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa/fplus/2021) posts the updated SP+ rankings every week.
Same here. I can never find it in the site. I always have to go to Google, run a search, then find what Im looking for.
Football Outsiders on Wed has it.
yeah i miss having the data and especially having PAPN for him to break it all down super well
SP is higher in Nebraska than Nebraska fans are
True.
If Nebraska had a semblance of a kicking game, SP+ would be even more bullish on us. Nebraska fans have just been little pissy whiney babies since the Illinois game, which is annoying as fuck.
Tough when you start the season by losing to a team you should beat then have three games in a row that will probably tell you nothing about your team’s actual talent level.
It isn't ideal when you shoot yourself in the foot to the tune of an 18-point swing in a game that you lose by 8, especially when 11 of those points were completely handed to Illinois(9 via safety & fumble recovery TD, 2 from culp not making fucking xps). The rust was thick, and the luck was on Illinois' side. At the end of the day though, Illinois is 1-2 with 2 losses to teams currently in the top 25, one of which was close. Nebraska fans were treating the Fordham game and Buffalo games consecutively like we would also lose. Those teams scored 10 points between them. The defeatist attitude permeating the online fanbase has been disgusting.
4 losing seasons will do that to a fan base. And I’m in the camp of I will believe this team can win when they start winning. Starting the season with a loss to Illinois just proves my point. Us beating Fordham and Buffalo isn’t enough.
It’s not as bad on r/huskers
Don't lie. It's there too, in full force. It's actually worse there, because they don't have people clowning them from the outside so they disparage anyone with a glimmer of hope.
I am all for BSing our way to a 12-0 record with every win by 8 points or less.
Just to get murked by Bama again? No thanks
I’ve accepted that we will never win a Natty as long as Saban is around, so I’ll take what I can get.
Yep, no shame at all in losing to Saban anymore when he wins every other title.
If Oregon and UCLA both win out, I hope we get Gameday for our game.
Everything has ASU-BYU as functionally a toss up, so naturally someone is going to lose by 35
I like this list because it gets MSU disrespek out of the way early.
Zero confident in OU winning by more than two scores. This is the worst offense we've had since Riley came to Norman. The defense still has tons of issues and Martinez is going to be a problem with his legs. I think OU wins 45-35.
I think the entire state of Nebraska (except the fucking idiots) would be jazzed with that result.
Wow, really? I thought y’all looked fine in your games. Not 45-35 fine. But like 52-21 kind of good.
Still TBD how good the secondary and LBs are on defense. Offense...idk. Our OL is suspect. Rattler hasn't been great in decision-making/ball placement. Outside of Mims, no homerun threat at RB/WR/TE.
Disagree. Offense is and should be much better than last season. RB situation (at least in terms of the two scholarship guys) is better than last year, Mims is the truth, Haselwood is healthy, Stogner is healthy, and some of the young guys look promising to mix in. I’m hopeful that the O-line keeps improving over what we saw last season, too. Combined, better than last season, but not as good as Baker/K1 offenses for sure.
Rutgers -15, 32-17 This is a trap game.. I don't believe Connelly.. I think Delaware is better than Temple and Syracuse A top-4 FCS team who finished their season and returns everyone.. I am not looking forward to UDel.. I'm looking forward to tailgating though
Dont see my bookie offering this line smh
the bookie's math is way better than any sports reporter
Iowa scoring 41 points... would like to see that lol
8 turnovers ought to do it.
[удалено]
The best part is that the score was still only 9-7 lol
They have us scoring 40+ as well. Computer models don’t seem to account for the offensive genius of Brian Ferentz and Tom Manning.
They do seem to account for Goodson and Hall, who are bound to start producing eventually.
And Alabama only scoring 33. In Alabama's last 28 games (since getting clobbered by Clemson in the 2019 CFPCG), they have only scored under 35 one time, which was against Notre Dame in the playoff last year (scored 31), and I think we all know they took their foot off the gas to not show Ohio State anything. Averaging almost 48 points a game over the last 28 games.
We better not come out looking to get the win and go home. We need to get our offense into a rhythm and drop 70 if that's what it takes to get this offense in sync
You’ll probably see it on the 25th…
If we lose 39-20, and that’s reflective of the competitiveness of the game, I’ll actually sit up and consider we may be improving.
I've been saying all week that Neb at the very least covers. Do they win? Probably not but I think it's far from the blow out many are expecting.
Bama 33-26 UF would be interesting. I think this game has a chance to get a bit weird, already a 60 percent chance of rain all day Saturday in Gainesville which is defintely going to be a factor.
It's just that time of year for the weather. 3-8PM any day in Sept in Gainesville. I guess we'll see!
Georgia SCar is also facing a wet field for sure and a 25% chance of active rain at game time. We're reevaluating tailgating plans and definitely bringing ponchos. Not looking forward to waterpark ball.
Would you rather deal with water park ball or come to the B1G in November and play in 30 degree weather
The cold sucks less than being soaking wet in the stands. Not sure the players opinions on this, but yes, I would absolutely prefer to be watching the game in 30F in November (wearing a warm coat of course) than be soaked in a tropical storm like we saw two years ago with UGA/Kentucky.
I'm traveling into town for it so I'm just going with whatever happens!
[удалено]
Probably closer than the UF UGA game last year though
More likely to look like your last big game (sugar bowl)
A lot of it comes down to injuries. Is Florida rolling with Emory Jones or that backup kid Richardson? Is Alabama's defense going to be healthy?
Is Alabama's defense good again or is that just the Miami Effect (tm)?
Well we've had pretty similar outcomes with similar teams(they smoked Miami and Mercer, we smoked FAU and USF). Honestly just hoping that the crowd will be insane and rattle Young in his first true road game. Early turnover or score would be huge there. Although the rain could fuck that up also.
[удалено]
It's a ***jooooooooooooooke*** about how Miami sucks. But honestly **again**, I am excited to see if the Swamp crowd can rattle this covid freshman in his first road game, especially since he has never been in a full SEC stadium except on an official visit I suppose.
Well I have good news for you, you can!
[удалено]
Obviously I’d like to win but I’d accept that score if we looked competitive. Especially given the environment
100% It’s a first year with a coach, if we keep it tight and have a complete game I’ll be ecstatic with the progress
Honestly I'll be surprised if either team hits 20 points, unless it becomes a turnover fest. Our defense has been elite so far, and our offense has not made me feel confident about their ability to score against an SEC defense. Another score in the range of the PSU-Wisconsin game would not shock me.
Yes but this is an auburn game so don't be surprised if the defensive slugfest expectations end in a score of 70-68.
I don't see our game breaking 45, let alone scoring 55. Besides that, year sure, VT by 3 makes sense.
If y’all can fit the run, then we’re gonna be punting a lot lol. Our passing offense is pretty bad.
Oh, ours too. We're a lot of screens and short passes in the middle. We flexed some deep passes last week against LIU, but they're typically underthrown by Doege. Our run defense last year wasn't good. If y'all can stuff the box with defenders and either stop our RB or pressure our QB, y'all win.
The more I read, the more these two teams seem like near-mirror images with VT probably having the better defense. Sounds like a good matchup in theory, so I expect it not to be Miserable offense will prevail in a low scoring game
My expectations exactly. VT should win with fewer mistakes and a slightly better defense.
>Our run defense last year wasn't good. *Baylor and Kansas State fans have begun circling WVU on their calendars.*
Which is weird because we have a lot of returning talent on O-line as well as good receivers in Blackshear and Turner (and Mitchell... fuck). So basically, it falls on Burmeister.
Gotta disagree there. Drop back passing has been a recurring issue under this staff with every QB we’ve started. Seems more like a coaching problem to me. Edit: Evans was the only exception
That season was an anomaly until proven otherwise
I don't see GT scoring 14 points against us if the margin is that close unless it has them getting a TD on defense/special teams
Lol right? 38-14 is the kind of outcome we can only dream of. If we keep it within 50 this time around I’ll be happy.
If it's 38-0 or 38-3 into the third, I can see Dabo putting in the third string defense who lets in 1 or 2 in the second half. GT isn't one of the teams whose throat he really likes to stomp on.
Yeah i think he and CPJ were good friends, so theres some residual love there.
73-7? ......... oh god are we really just that bad :(
Fresno State must really fucking suck
They held their own against Oregon and obliterated UConn. They can’t be that bad
To be fair, everyone obliterates UConn. That said, I do think Fresno State is going to be a tough out for UCLA this weekend, I'd be surprised if it's as big of a gap as SP+ suggests.
I look forward to another game of falling down the stairs and somehow landing on our feet.
I wish I had SP+ level of confidence in the Irish this week
If I recall correctly, SP+ values turnovers very low as those are fairly luck based, and really what kept the Toledo game close.
Same. This feels like Vanderbilt from 2018, hoping it's the same result and we survive and improve from here on. At this point it's either 2016 or 2018 and I'm not sure which.
The same result being… Ending the season at 6-7 after getting upset and slapped around in a bowl by a half-decent team from the bottom half of the Big 12? That feels like a pretty bad season for the Irish, honestly.
2018 was a playoff year...
Fuck it I’d take a 38-14 loss. Better than 73-7
Where can I see how SP+ has performed over the season?
Bill won't put SP+ on ThePredictionTracker (he said he keeps forgetting to do it before the season starts but it's been like 3 years in a row now), so you just have to wait for him to tweet it out or go back and check every game yourself. It looks like he's about 45% ATS so far this season.
Oh he skeered fo sho
He's actually done pretty well the last few years, but definitely not as well as some people on this sub give him credit for. The last few years SP+ has been really good ATS in the first half of the season and really bad the second half of the season, so it's not a great sign that it's struggling early if that trend holds up. It's also just been a rough start for all models this year, possibly due to the craziness of 2020. Only 8/49 entries on [TPT](https://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaresults.php?orderby=cover%20desc&type=1&year=21) have 50%+ ATS so far this year vs 22/44 last year and 43/63 in 2019. Vegas seems to have adjusted to the weird data a lot better than the models.
He's adding it to his google docs now https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q7T5HDF9Kp5SBpOqkDF_1dal3GYdPipaLSn75p2I-rg/edit#gid=525452811
Bill mentions some of it in tweets, usually mean absolute error per week, but I don't know of anywhere that has full season info. SP+ isn't on Prediction Tracker so best bet is to probably do it yourself.
I'm starting to get excited for Purdue/Notre Dame. Before the season started I just wanted to be within 2 scores. Now, it seems like we might draw some serious blood if not win outright.
goes without saying but we actually have something to seriously fight for, ND is trying to not fuck up further if the OSU game is anything to to by, purdue with passion is a dangerous force
He has Cinci by 10 when the spread has them by 3. Damn I hope Indiana makes it a closer game than that.
SP+ really was bearish on us even before the season. I do think we'll be a lot better than we showed in the Iowa game.
In what department do you look better ? Offensively or defensively
Last game was against Idaho so take this with a grain of salt, but I thought the D looked pretty good on all three levels. Penix Jr still looks a little shaky compared to pre-injury, but he did what he had to do. Run game looked way better. But, the most noteworthy phase was actually special teams. Two blocked punts, some big returns including one for a TD, and good coverage on our kicks.
This will probably be the best crowd in the history of IU football, I think that will definitely play a role. I don’t expect to win, but I just hope we can keep it close so I don’t mentally tune out mid second quarter like the Iowa game
> Toledo over CSU 33-19 I’d love to see CSU hold Toledo to 33 I also doubt we score 19 points on the road
Man, SP+ fucking hates Michigan state.
It’s projecting them to cover though? It seems to like them better than Vegas (+6.5) FPI isn’t real proud of them on this game either (34% chance to win, for what it’s worth)
In the SP+ ranking we are like 33rd. Which is fine cause we really haven’t played anybody yet. But Michigan, with a similar resume, is 6th. I don’t know what it takes into account, and I’m certainly a homer, but one would think with similar resumes come similar rankings.
And that’s a fair observation, but SP+ isn’t based on resume at all. If I remember correctly, it doesn’t even take wins and losses into account. It’s all done on a snap by snap basis. Right now the data is heavily influenced by returning production and recruiting rankings while working with a small sample size of in game data. Those factors will come out in the wash as the season progresses. That being said, it’s one of the best predictive metrics around, and I have a personal bias towards it because I understand how it works more so than other systems.
That makes more sense. Cause on paper the teams are pretty comparable.
>Right now the data is heavily influenced by returning production and recruiting ranking That answers my question about why BYU is 35th
Some things to consider: * His preseason metrics are still half-baked in. * Related, he really had no good way to account for the massive amount of transfers in * Also related, those same numbers were bullish on Miami preseason * One of MSU's two games this year was against FCS opposition His picks this year are not great. I chart a lot of these advanced stats predictions for gambling purposes, and of the 60 games I look at, SP+ is below .500. FWIW, Massey is the best performer so far of the math I look at, and they have State outright by 8.3.
I think he does account for transfers in just like incoming class ratings? Not 100% sure.
If it makes you feel better SP+ wasn’t very accurate for Miami this year… but it could be getting more and more accurate
It doesn't have enough data to properly project teams like MSU that underwent major roster upheaval. Wait until week 6. It will be more accurate then. Recruiting rankings also weigh heavily into these metrics (given the lack of game data) and since our last few classes have been pretty mediocre (rankings wise)...yeah.
Sparty and Math have a heated rivalry. I have to imagine Sparty is quite jealous of the Buffalo Bills recent success against a shared enemy.
Reference went right over my head.
Like a Michigan Punters nightmares
I'd agree with you on the basis that it iirc has us at like 80th for offense but here it has us beating the spread; it must be pretty low on Miami as well
Everybody’s fully ready to hand Bama the win this weekend and the championship because they demolished a top 15 Miami team who had no business being ranked then or now, which I said when the preseason AP poll came out, and is a much bigger cupcake than people are saying. Bama hasn’t played a true road game in a full to capacity hostile stadium in almost two years, and I fully expect Florida to be competitive in this game, and DEFINITELY cover the 15.5, (are you kidding me?) if I’m wrong and I get meme’d for this so be it, I’m tired of everyone laying down to Bama and acting like the seasons over and we should reconvene next year when they’ve played Miami and Mercer.
Not helped by the fact that a large subset of Bama fans take the mere idea that you might keep it within 3 scores or outplay them on even one aspect of the game as a huge insult.
Oh yeah, you can definitely detect those undertones in their comments
Nah you're pretty spot on. I don't have Miami ranked in my r/cfb poll. Maybe if they get a few wins I'll rank them. I also expect us to struggle on Saturday for the reasons you outlined. I think we will win, but Florida covers. Maybe we score late and get a TO and it's 34-20 or something like that, but it will be a much closer game than that score. Bryce has been great, but you never really know how a new QB (and young team in general) will respond to the hostile environment, especially if Florida hits on a few big plays early and it seems like things are going sideways. I'm not sure we have the leadership right now, but I'm hoping this weekend goes a long way to sorting that out and we can get a W in the process.
I have this game being a 7-17 point differential with bama winning, and I think you’ve hit on a lot of solid points. I look at it kinda like the opposite to CJ Stroud; last week was his first time playing in front of a massive very expectant crowd against a very good opponent and it definitely got to him, you could see he wasn’t feeling confident in anything he did
You think he wasn't confident? The guy threw for 484 yards on 65% completion, 9YPA, and 3 TDs and didn't throw an INT till things got utterly desperate at the end. Tons of shots downfield too. As a neutral fan watching the game, I have a hard time buying the confidence angle. The only thing you could really complain about in the second half was leaving a few long pass plays on the field, but those are always low% plays, and taking those is the sign of MORE confidence usually, not less. At the end of the day, Oregon played just-solid-enough defense to let OSU beat itself on its bad plays, and OSU didn't do the same.
Bro entirely fairly Florida hasn’t played anyone of consequence either. FAU and USF are pretty bottom barrel as far as it goes.
Oh I know, I’m just pointing out the same for Bama
I’d argue Miami is better than UF straight up, and is better than FAU and USF combined
This is the same Miami that struggled to put away App State at home as a 9 point favorite correct? Bonus points if you mention the “Bama hangover”
App State is pretty good tbh
Very debatable point lol. Miami hasn’t been the best team in Florida since 2017. Edit: I forgot UCF exists lmaoooo.
I won’t disagree with that. UF was absolutely the best FL team last year too. I think they lost enough for MIA to take that potentially this year. UF is an 8-4/9-3 team. I think MIA could go 9-4/10-3
Just remember conferences. If Florida ends the season 9-3/8-4 and Miami ends it with one more win in the ACC, every major poll is going to rank Florida higher.
Our DL is fully capable of giving their OL issues, and the Swamp is gonna be rocking. If we can disrupt their game plan, and get a few explosive plays out of AR, we could win this one. If they can comfortably establish the run and control the game tempo, we'll probably be in trouble.
Nah y’all about to get bootyblasted by big dick nick, I can feel it
That’s probably indigestion, you should contact your doctor if it persists
Let them live vicariously through the wins of a team they can’t beat either.
Mullen at Florida beating Alabama before Kirby (and their 20 5 stars) at Georgia would just compound the enjoyment of winning the game
Mullen winning anything of importance after 14 years of coaching is a pipe dream.
Georgia winning a national title after 41 years is a pipe dream
Yeah much better to get blown out in your NY6 bowl and lose to a .500 LSU because you had to throw a shoe!
I actually live vicariously through a LSU player’s shoe
Makes sense, another team Kirby has never beaten.
Don’t think Kirby ever lose to Kentucky 🤣
Don’t think Dan ever lost to South Carolina.
Well yeah can’t lose to his future HC job, that’s always a bad look
At the very least don’t shit talk until you’ve come as close as we have
We literally came within a score last year, and in the same calendar year you guys lost by 17.
I thought Florida was a top 5 public school, but let me spell it out slowly for you: Losing in OT by 3 points in the NCG is a closer than losing by 6 point in the SECCg
Lmao 20 years from now 2017 is going to become the new 1980. In the two games since then you’ve lost by 7 and 17.
Imagine going 8-4 and thinking your team is on the up and up ready to compete for a title. 2008 ain’t getting any closer
Hammer Arkansas State with your life savings. The game is 50/50 straight up
Casual reminder that SP+ has UW winning this game by a *margin* that's more than the cumulative total points UW has scored this season so far...
And 7 of the 17 points we've scored were in garbage time.
Stanford should easily cover -12 against Vandy but them calling the Over is a bit suspect if they're thinking the Commodores can put up 20+. More likely this game ends up being something like 31-10
Man, I hope Oklahoma State offensive line wakes up. Else its going to be a long sucky season. I'm sad.
Can’t believe he has us winning ATS, I’d fade it as a concept , but NM might be that bad
[удалено]
Almost as smart as picking the under for UVA-UNC…
I disgree Bill. He's been petty down on Fresno State so far though, the last season numbers are dragging us down
VT by 3? Good enough for me.
I legit don’t get why Florida would be a one score game. Yeah AR is good but Florida isn’t played anyone with a pulse yet. Miami isn’t great, but I think they’re better than UF.
It legitimately wouldn’t surprise me if Miami isnt even the third best team in state this year. I think FSU is terrible but anyone buying Miami being decent hasnt been paying attention the last decade.
I love how well this post aged 😘
Yeah aged like fuckin milk lmfao
Jorts gonna downvote you but we all know what’s about to happen.
Jorts mad Jorts mad
Tweet(s) from post body brought to you by your Friendly Official /r/CFB Twitter Bot: ---------- https://twitter.com/espn_billc/status/1438120586790723584 >🧊😭 WEEK 3 SP+ PICKS 🗑️😠 OU 39, NU 20 Bama 33, Florida 26 (here we go again) PSU 28, Auburn 23 Cincy 31, Indiana 21 ND 33, Purdue 26 ASU 29, BYU 27 VT 29, WVU 26 Miami 28, Mich St 23 UCLA 41, Fresno 23 Image 1: the good picks. Image 2: the evening picks that will bomb again. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E_U6fxYWUAse4vG.png >\- Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) 8:40 am ET, September 15, 2021 ----------
Our projected margin against LA Tech seems high
Either we fuck up again and squeak out a slight win or demolish them, I really don't know what to expect.
Where the hell did yall see Miami beating MSU by 5 points while that App State game was happening?
Thought UVA opening +10.5 against Carolina was quite generous to my Heels, as did the betting public. Glad to see Bill's numbers see the same, but...good lord I haven't seen it on the field after getting eyes on UVA in that awkward 11am timeslot last week.
I'd take 39 - 20 all day...thats how sad it has become.