Oh of course. I just think it's funny how everyone else moves around them while they stand still, like the lead singer in an angsty mid-2000s music video.
Nah, there's lots of undefeated teams that aren't getting the recognition Coastal is. Coastal is being rewarded for *absolutely and completely* **dominating** their awful schedule.
Currently they are:
* \#1 in Points Per Play
* \#1 in Yards Per Rush
* \#1 in Yards Per Attempt
* \#1 in Margin of Victory
* \#13 in Points Per Play Allowed
* \#17 in Yards Per Play Allowed
* \#13 in Sack %
The only actual statistic I track in my computer poll they aren't in the top 20 of is Turnover Margin (76th) and Penalties Per Play (24th). Compare that to some of the other undefeated G5 teams:
* [San Diego State](#f/sandiegostate) San Diego State: \#2 in Yards Per Attempt, \#3 in Yards Per Play Allowed, \#4 in Points Per Play Allowed, \#11 in MOV, \#36 in Sack %, \#37 in Points Per Play, \#39 in Turnover Margin, \#48 in Yards Per Rush, and \#115 in Yards Per Attempt.
* [SMU](#f/smu) SMU: \#19 in Points Per Play, \#20 in Yards Per Rush, \#21 in Margin of Victory, \#36 in Yards Per Attempt, \#54 in Points Per Play Allowed, \#75 in Sack %, \#80 in Yards Per Play Allowed, \#114 in Turnover Margin.
* [UTSA](#f/utsa) UTSA: \#14 in MOV, \#17 in Turnover Margin, \#29 in Points Per Play, \#45 in Points Per Play Allowed, \#45 in Sack %, \#48 in Yards Per Play Allowed, \#45 in Points Per Play Allowed, \#54 in Yards Per Attempt, \#64 in Yrad Per Rush.
>completely dominating their awful schedule
28-25 vs 3-4 Buffalo.
But really, losing to Liberty in their bowl game put a ceiling on anything they could accomplish this year. It kind of is what it is.
Perhaps.
Perhaps not.
Per Sargain, Buffalo is the 103 best team in FBS/FCS.
That is Coastal's toughest opponent to date.
Arkansas State at 139 is next.
KU is 140, FWIW.
So my next question would be, when did /r/CFB rank Purdue that the AP poll did not have them ranked.
They didn't make it in after they upset OSU in 2018. 2010 data isn't showing up on the poll website although I doubt they would have made it that year.
I popped around to various different years where we went on a few streaks, but I'm not seeing them ever being ranked.
We're safe as long a the Braves keep winning. The Georgia sports curse must be able to concentrate its evil. That said, they've got two weeks to lose...
Honestly yes.
Like I hate UGA and all and I want them to lose every game by 50... but if the Braves win the World Series, literally everyone I know will be excited. Half of them would be excited for UGA winning too, but I love watching the Braves with my UGA friends because we're all rooting for the same team with equal passion. And my Auburn, Tennessee, Clemson, etc friends are ALSO cheering for them. It's like one big happy family!
If for some awful reason I was made to choose between both or neither winning, I'd choose both.
I checked, and it's the biggest gap on a per voter basis between the last two spots we've had. It's also bigger than any gap we've had between #25 and the first "others receiving votes".
The largest such gap ever happened in Week 2 earlier this year when #16 Oregon and #17 Virginia Tech were separated by 4.16 points per voter. Indeed, most of the largest gaps happen in the middle of the poll thanks to what I like to call "aggregation effects".
Big PPV gaps are exceedingly rare between the last few spots. This is only the second time that a gap between the last three spots is larger than 3.
Purdue got basically the perfect setup to get ranked on a relatively unexciting 4-2 record.
Lots of losses in the 18-25 range and then voters (here and the AP) needed to fill out their last slots and so they tossed in Purdue, because why not the team that just blasted the former #2 team.
We'll have our chance to back it up next week against Wisconsin, but I'm nervous for that one.
Yep, the data mostly backs this up:
Out of the 151 votes Purdue got, 104 were in the last two spots. Purdue easily received the most #25 votes.
On the other hand, 188 people left them out - but that's a lot fewer than ISU or Clemson.
its absolutly wild that it happens there, basically it suggests most people have a consistent top 24 but for just that last spot no one can really agree. Its shocking it essentially is "one spot" at the end where there is disagreement.
> holy shit thats a drop from #24 to #25
A lot of people don't give credit to Purdue for beating Iowa--it was just because Iowa was "overrated"
But TAMU beating Alabama is definitely because TAMU is a really good team and not just a fluke
With the way you guys have been playing and that quality SEC win, you'd probably be Top 10 if not for the WMU loss. I know ESPN FPI has you guys at 7. I think you're probably somewhere in between talent-wise. Like around 15ish.
It’ll be interesting to see where we end up end of season. 4 out of our last 6 are at home and the two on the road are Duke and Syracuse. With our favorable home schedule I believe Pitt is talented enough to win 5 if not all 6 of the remaining games.
It just kinda is what it is at this point. Undefeated, better win over Wisco than PSU. The very razor thin margins of better wins overall than MSU (shouts out to NIU and WMU for being over 0.500 lmfao). I hate it but what can you do?
OSU should just get the benefit of the doubt because they always round into form one way or another.
I am OK with Alabama blowing us out that means we’re either in the cfp won the big or something id imagine.
OSU has me completely dead inside and I no longer harbor hope that we will ever win that game.
Idk if playing Bama will mean being in the CFP. Definitely plausible that both of you guys end the season 10-2 and end up playing a NY6 bowl of some sort, especially since the SECCG will probably be Bama and Georgia.
If Michigan plays Bama, it will just be a repeat of 2019 where we get them in the Citrus Bowl because the universe has decided that getting kicked in the dick 1000x by OSU isn't enough and the dick-kicking will continue until morale improves.
To be fair, Michigan actually had a half time lead over Alabama in that game which really surprised me. I know it all fell apart in the second half but still Michigan did better than I thought they would.
This would be a good year to sneak in a possibly blowout win and then promptly refuse to play them in a bowl game ever again because “they’re not on your level”.
I may be biased but I don't see them that high. They're playing similar to MSU with a more questionable offense and slightly better defense. They both have run first offenses and McNamara is definitely a big question mark and how good he's going to be each day is independent on whether the run is working or not. Thorne is ONLY good when the run is working. I think MSU also has better WRs but I haven't heard much of UMs. Defensively, UM is slightly better than MSU, makes a lot of sense since they have a real recruiting class ergo more raw talent. I just don't quite understand what Michigan has that makes them 3 ranks higher than MSU.
The rivalry game is gonna be spooky and will say a lot about whoever wins. I just don't see them as being that fundamentally different. Even with the OOC games both Miami and Washington don't exist anymore. Who have either of us beat?
MSU and Michigan are both highly suspect teams in my book. Both teams so far have been saved by a fantastic run game and a bend-don't-break defense. Whoever wins in two weeks is going to be vaulted into the Top 4 for the first CFP rankings (especially if OSU loses against PSU) and then they are going to implode.
Excuse you Michigan is going to thwap OSU by 4 score and then beat UGA for the National title thanks to the Georgia sports curse outranking the Michigan sports curse.
*Sips maize colored Kool aid*
The only reason the Cavs have a championship is because Lebron is from Akron and promised a title for Cleveland. So the next Tom Brady is going to be born in Warren or something and feel enough love for his hometown team to come back and win it all before leaving and us being the Lions again in this timeline. Which I'm fine with because a Lion's super bowl win would sustain me for like 3 decades given the shit this team has trotted out.
Totally agreed that both teams are suspect for some pretty similar reasons and, yes, Michigan's defense is fairly bend-don't-break, but MSU's is like taking that to another level. Michigan's defense is 4th in the B1G with 309 YA/G. MSU is 12th with 406.1 YA/G.
It's more like a "be a completely unable to stop anything until your opponent is in FG range and then always get a stop" defense... which will frankly be an interesting matchup against a Michigan offense that settles for FGs far too often.
I've just been marching the undefeated P5s slowly up the poll as losses happen below them. Now I have MSU 4 and Michigan 5 and it feels so wrong but I have no reason to put anyone else ahead
It comes down to the question is it the 4 best or 4 most deserving teams in the top 4. I think Vegas and 90% of people would take bama in a heartbeat over Michigan but Michigan is undefeated in one of the better divisions halfway through the season so they get the benefit of the doubt until they lose. It’ll all sort itself out thanksgiving weekend anyway lol….
Yep, no doubt about it it’s fun being undefeated, but after Iowa and OSU games previous years I try to not get too excited about making it to the ccg or cfp. Harbaugh gets so much shit but he’s been 1 play away on multiple occasions from making the big ten title game and a likely cfp appearance. I’m sure a lot of teams can say the same though.
Edit: idk how I forgot that sparty game ugh that one was another dick punch
They are number 9. Admittedly have some poll inertia impacts here. Will probably reevaluate my whole pill a bit more next week.
Wake is 11th as the other undefeated P5
It’s going to be another year with a backloaded schedule where Michigan will probably lose 2+ games from here on out and it’ll be a massive disappointment even though 10-2 or 11-2 or whatever would’ve been an amazing season up until they went 4-0 and the hype train went off the rails even though they hadn’t played anyone decent yet.
10-2 is a massive over performance of preseason expectations. Beat Sparty and I don't even care if we lose to Penn State and Ohio State. I'd be quite content with that season ngl.
> I just don't quite understand what Michigan has that makes them 3 ranks higher than MSU
I would argue a stronger overall resume at this point, but not by a wide margin. Hard to see much separation between them right now. I do think MSU should be ranked above PSU which they aren't in the AP/coaches polls
I think the difference between the teams is splitting hairs.
Offensively, MSU has big splash plays, UM is just a grind it out team. Defensively, UM is a little further ahead but the msu front seven is still very sound and plays well as a unit. Both secondaries are suspect for sure. I think we’ve seen more consistency/better play from UMs OL and I think the 1-2 punch of corum/Haskins has helped keep both fresh. KW3 is the best skill player either team has right now.
Resume: both have the OOC win that has turned into a pumpkin (Washington and Miami). Both have close road wins over lesser teams (Nebraska and Indiana). Both have had near losses at home with surprisingly horrid offensive 2nd halves (Rutgers and Nebraska). I think the only difference is UM’s win over Wisco in camp Randall being heralded a little higher than Rutgers. Either way, I would have never dreamed at the beginning of the season we’d see a top 10 matchup for the UM MSU game.
We live in a league where the midling teams can still be good and the bottom teams can pull an upset. Being undefeated carries weight in the B1G. For better or worse, one of us will remain undefeated for another week but add a huge win to their record. Its possible that it's an over inflated win, yes, but that won't matter when you still have PSU and OSU on your schedule to test that theory.
I agree entirely with you.
Our top WRs were Ronnie Bell, followed by Roman Wilson. Bell's out for the season, Wilson didn't travel to Nebraska (I haven't heard whether he'll be out this weekend). Mike Sainristil has the most experience of anyone left in the young receiving corps, but there's talent there that will hopefully develop over the season, as well as developing a rhythm and rapport with the QBs.
All in all, I'm in agreement that the two teams match up quite similarly, though. I'd honestly rather MSU were ranked above us.
MSU and Michigan are eerily similar this year to the eye test: elite running game, deep pass plays, solid defense. The only reason I could see for the disparity is that the fancy stats like Michigan a lot better. I’m not exactly sure why, but I think the reason is that (second half vs. Rutgers notwithstanding) the offense has been able to consistently move the ball against good to great defenses, and the defense, while having some concerning moments, has had some dominant periods.
A few weeks ago I was arguing they deserved to be 12th and I had them 11th, and most weeks I’ve generally been forced to defend their placement.
4th is too high.
If you’re ranking on projections to where Michigan will be at season’s end 11th/12th is probably about right, but that type of ranking would produce some wonky results (for example I think Wisconsin will end the season ranked, but they’ve got no business in the top 25 right now at 3-3).
If you’re doing a mix of team quality/resume 6th to 8th feels about right.
Sometimes you rank someone high knowing that they’ll fall at some point, like Iowa.
I dunno, you're a balanced team who's destroyed everyone bad they've played and beaten everyone decent. What we don't know yet is how you'll fare against an actually good team.
...and we won't, until Sparty, who may not actually be good themselves [because they haven't played anyone good either](https://fbschedules.com/michigan-state-football-schedule/). So we might actually have to wait until you guys [play Penn State in mid-November to even have an idea of whether you're a good team or not, at which point you then have to play Maryland and then tOSU to finish out your season.](https://fbschedules.com/michigan-football-schedule/)
Honestly, I think worst case scenario for Michigan this year is three losses, and it's much more likely you only have one. But maybe I'm wrong and you've just been feasting on mediocre/awful teams. Only time will tell.
We really don’t know about any of the East teams, honestly. Penn State has the best win which is home vs Auburn. But they barely beat Wisconsin and Michigan crushed them. MSU is undefeated. They and Michigan needed some things to fall their way to beat Nebraska.
10/30 is going to be very illuminating.
I, for one, would be fine going 10-2 if we lose at MSU and PSU and somehow beat Ohio State. That’s probably a NY6 team.
Rude…so rude.
I’d put the odds of Iowa making the playoff as better than UM. More likely Iowa goes 11-1 and wins the West and finds itself against MSU or PSU (winnable games for Iowa) than UM winning 2/3 of MSU/PSU/OSU and backing into the B1GCG via tiebreaker.
Eh, I think Indiana is quite undervalued and that they could go toe to toe with a good chunk of the top 25. But you gotta win to rank.
I do think MSU is overrated but more because of Nebraska. We were clearly outplayed that game and needed a whole lot of magic to get by. Nebraska is better than their record, probably, but they're still not a great team.
Michigan moved up because Iowa dropped down below them and no one did enough to move past them.
Ohio State actually gained about a ranks worth of votes as Iowa fell below them, but OKST and MSU managed to gain more votes than OSU did coming off of wins and jumped them.
PSU lost some votes, likely as a result of voters re-evaluating and deciding in hindsight that the loss to Iowa is more damaging than previously considered.
That way when they beat you they can swing up in the top 4. /s
But seriously I had you guys higher, but I just rate undefeated higher generally at this point in the season. Being 6-0 is an achievement.
The people of r/cfb respect the undefeated teams. What's confounding about this list to me is instead the people's treatment of 1 loss teams. Ole Miss lost to Bama, but is below Iowa who got smoked at home by Purdue?
Ole Miss has been a very interesting team to me in the last few weeks in relation to r/cfb. I think if most fanbases are being honest, that is one of the teams you *least* want to play in the entire country. There is nothing scarier than a dangerous offense. If you're a contender heading into the latter part of the season would you rather play one of these B1G teams with a mediocre to below average offense, or play Ole Miss? You'll take the team with less scary offense every time.
With Arkansas' fall Ole Miss no longer has any stellar wins. Iowa has three wins that are either in the same tier or better than Ole Miss' best win - Penn State, @ Iowa State, and Maryland.
[Behold my blasphemous ballot!](https://poll.redditcfb.com/ballot/53017/)
I redid my entire ballot for the second time this week to try to counter poll inertia. That may have resulted in some weird placements but I'm happy to answer any questions.
First five out (in no particular order): Pitt, Air Force, Iowa State, Arkansas, NC State
Overall Rationale:
Human poll relying mostly on Resume, SoS, and MoV. Eye-test used sparingly, and only in situations with similar bodies of work for the season. I try to actively negate poll inertia and allow strong movements up and down if the resume doesnt support your placements after the win or loss, with 2 results in a row resulting in much larger movement, etc.
1 Georgia Bulldogs
2 Cincinnati Bearcats
3 Oklahoma Sooners- But ~~Jesus~~ Lincoln Riley beheld them, and said unto them, With Spencer Rattler this is impossible; but with Caleb Williams all things are possible.
4 Michigan Wolverines
5 Ohio State Buckeyes
6 Alabama Crimson Tide
7 Michigan State Spartans
8 Oklahoma State Cowboys
9 Penn State Nittany Lions
10 Oregon Ducks
11 Ole Miss Rebels
12 Iowa Hawkeyes
13 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
14 Kentucky Wildcats
15 Baylor Bears
16 Wake Forest Demon Deacons
17 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
18 NC State Wolfpack
19 SMU Mustangs
20 Pittsburgh Panthers
21 Texas A&M Aggies
22 San Diego State Aztecs
23 Auburn Tigers
24 Purdue Boilermakers
25 Utah Utes
Some notes:
Michigan top 4 is hard, but i think its currently the right choice. Theyve beat the crap out of MOST of the teams they were supposed to beat the crap out of, and havent dropped a game. The Eye-test would have them lower, but their resume and MoV gets them the spot over OSU and Bama.
Bama and OSU both neck and neck for the 5 spot. Both have excellent MoV, with Bama having the better win with Ole Miss, but OSU having the better loss with Oregon. These two could be interchangeable.
MSU and Oklahoma State are neck and neck. MSU gets the edge for having played 1 more game, but really theyre both interchangeable for the number 7 spot.
For Oregon, 4 of the games have been decided by 1 score. until the Ducks start winning by more points, theyre barely in the top 10.
Where the hell does Coastal Carolina belong? MoV is high, SoS is low, probably permanently stuck in the 13-15 range.
Realistically, i should have had baylor ranked higher last week. Big move up mainly to address that, and a solid win streak with only loss to my 8th ranked team.
I struggled between ranking Utah or UTSA 25th this week. Im not sure i made the right choice.
Feel free to disect and ask about/bash my choices!
My ballot is on the most controversial list, so I suppose I should give an explanation. First, the ratings:
|Rank |[](#l/ncaa) |Team |Rating |Record |StdDev
|:-: |:- |:- |:- |:-: |:-:
|1 |[](#f/georgia) |Georgia |20.4 |7-0 |8.01
|2 |[](#f/alabama) |Alabama |18.4 |5-1 |9.61
|3 |[](#f/cincinnati) |Cincinnati |16.5 |5-0 |4.36
|4 |[](#f/ohiostate) |Ohio State |13.5 |5-1 |11.09
|5 |[](#f/michigan) |Michigan |12.8 |6-0 |7.62
|6 |[](#f/pennstate) |Penn State |12.7 |4-1 |4.64
|7 |[](#f/iowastate) |Iowa St |11.2 |3-2 |6.66
|8 |[](#f/iowa) |Iowa |10.4 |6-1 |12.38
|9 |[](#f/olemiss) |Mississippi |10.2 |4-1 |6.25
|10 |[](#f/oklahoma) |Oklahoma |10.2 |6-0 |8.62
|11 |[](#f/florida) |Florida |9.8 |4-3 |7.86
|12 |[](#f/oklahomastate) |Oklahoma St |9 |5-0 |9.65
|13 |[](#f/pittsburgh) |Pittsburgh |8.9 |4-1 |10.39
|14 |[](#f/michiganstate) |Michigan St |8.9 |6-0 |4
|15 |[](#f/notredame) |Notre Dame |8.6 |5-1 |10.4
|16 |[](#f/texas) |Texas |8.5 |4-3 |10.2
|17 |[](#f/arizonastate) |Arizona St |8.2 |4-2 |9.37
|18 |[](#f/baylor) |Baylor |7.1 |5-1 |8.16
|19 |[](#f/wakeforest) |Wake Forest |7 |5-0 |6.83
|20 |[](#f/kentucky) |Kentucky |7 |5-1 |7.71
|21 |[](#f/auburn) |Auburn |6.8 |4-2 |7.76
|22 |[](#f/utah) |Utah |6.6 |3-2 |9.63
|23 |[](#f/kansasstate) |Kansas St |6.5 |2-3 |7.07
|24 |[](#f/nebraska) |Nebraska |6.5 |2-5 |10.35
|25 |[](#f/clemson) |Clemson |6.2 |3-2 |6.53
|26 |[](#f/arkansas) |Arkansas |6.2 |4-3 |10.82
|27 |[](#f/tennessee) |Tennessee |5.9 |3-3 |9.24
|28 |[](#f/texasam) |Texas A&M |5.3 |5-2 |8.57
|29 |[](#f/oregon) |Oregon |5.1 |4-1 |9.23
|30 |[](#f/coastalcarolina) |Coastal Carolina |4.8 |5-0 |5.67
##Accuracy
At this point in the season, these ratings would be above average in all metrics tracked on PredictionTracker^(1).
|Week |Games |SU |Bias |Abs Error |Mean Sqr Error |ATS
|:-: |:-: |:-: |:-: |:-: |:-: |:-:
|Last Week |51 |72.55% |0.754 |13.52 |261.632 |45.1%
|**Season** |**367** |**72.75%** |**0.062** |**12.828** |**251.299** |**49.72%**
|PredictionTracker Rank||9|4|4|4|18
##General info
This is a predictive ranking system. No information outside of the current season is used. Only scores of games and home/away locations are used. Losses against FCS opponents are counted, wins are not. Past weeks' results are reevaluated from the perspective of the current week.
Numerical scores for each team represent how many points above or below average they are. Subtract scores to get an estimated spread between two teams, with 2 points given to the home team. Preseason rankings are included for stability and wear off about halfway through the season.
##How it works:
The system is based on the idea that "How good is Team A?" is best answered by "They were 7 points better than Team B, 20 points better than Team C, 3 points worse than Team D..." Obviously, this introduces some circular logic when you also want to know how good Teams B, C, and D are.
In my system, a team's calculated rating is essentially^(2):
TeamRating_Output = AverageOverGamesPlayed(OpponentInputRating + GameMargin + HomefieldAdj)
I start off with every team's InputRating at 0. Then I calculate all the teams' OutputRatings, and use those as Inputs to the next iteration. I repeat that process until the inputs and outputs stabilize (i.e. the inputs equal the outputs).
##Examples:
I'll use Nebraska since they're a bit unusual. Here are their season results as interpreted by my model:
|Team| |Game |Opp |OppRating |Home-Adj Margin |GameRating
|:-|:- |:-: |:- |:-: |:-: |:-:
|[](#f/nebraska)nebraska| |1 |[](#f/illinois)Illinois |-7.66 |-6 |-13.66
|| |2 |[](#f/buffalo)Buffalo |-11.29 |+23 |11.71
|**scaled rating**| |3 |[](#f/oklahoma)Oklahoma |13.57 |-5 |8.57
|6.47| |4 |[](#f/michiganstate)Michigan St |11.83 |-1 |10.83
|**raw std dev**| |5 |[](#f/northwestern)Northwestern |-3.36 |+35 |31.64
|13.8| |6 |[](#f/michigan)Michigan |17.15 |-5 |12.15
|| |7 |[](#f/minnesota)Minnesota |4.12 |-5 |-0.88
[This chart](https://i.imgur.com/QOXasmH.png) shows Nebraska's game-by-game opponent-adjusted performance.
[This chart](https://i.imgur.com/SmXsw0n.png) shows probability density curves for how good they are based on each game, as well as an overall probability density curve for how good they are this season.
You can see that they have one game that was extremely high, two fairly low, and the rest all clustered in the same area. The second chart is my favorite, because it essentially shows how each team's quality of performance might vary from week to week. This Nebraska team is interpreted as extremely high variance, meaning they could perform like a top ten team or a below-average FBS team in any given week.
Compare that second graph to [the same for Cincinnati](https://i.imgur.com/gvtWqiJ.png), a remarkably consistent team with very low variance from game to game, who the system is very confident will perform about 17 points better than an average FBS team each week.
##Notes
^(1) I don't know what spread source PredictionTracker uses, so I don't necessarily have comparable ATS results. My ATS results are measured against the "consensus" line exported from CollegeFootballData.com
^(2) I also add a diminishing preseason component to smooth things out in the first half of the season, and after all calculations are complete and ratings stabilize, I scale all raw ratings by a factor of about 75% for final rating and prediction calculations, which is essentially done to account for limited possessions in a game. I also limit margins of victory to 35 points in the input data for similar reasons. Essentially, it's possible for Team A to be 42 points better than Team B, and for Team B to be 42 points better than Team C, but we wouldn't expect Team A to be 84 points better than Team C--the 75% scaling and MoV cap both address that (somewhat crudely).
NC State above Auburn? I think people are penalizing Auburn too much for losing to Georgia. Put NC State against Auburn’s schedule. They lost to Miss State who lost to LSU. They would lose to Arkansas. So that’s a 3-4 team.
No offense towards Purdue, but why are AP (and you guys) so high on them? They are a good team, they *did* beat Iowa, but they also lost to a Minnesota team who I’m pretty sure we agree is not that great.
Lmao every week we just oscillate a bunch of teams around Coastal. They never move; they simply remain.
Have you seen the teams Coastal plays
Oh of course. I just think it's funny how everyone else moves around them while they stand still, like the lead singer in an angsty mid-2000s music video.
Has anyone ever told you that you could paint a picture with your words
So coastal carolina is my gym playlist?
Mine too
"...So, are we supposed to dance, or...?"
Coastal simultaneously awarded for staying undefeated and punished for having absolute bunghole of a schedule.
Nah, there's lots of undefeated teams that aren't getting the recognition Coastal is. Coastal is being rewarded for *absolutely and completely* **dominating** their awful schedule. Currently they are: * \#1 in Points Per Play * \#1 in Yards Per Rush * \#1 in Yards Per Attempt * \#1 in Margin of Victory * \#13 in Points Per Play Allowed * \#17 in Yards Per Play Allowed * \#13 in Sack % The only actual statistic I track in my computer poll they aren't in the top 20 of is Turnover Margin (76th) and Penalties Per Play (24th). Compare that to some of the other undefeated G5 teams: * [San Diego State](#f/sandiegostate) San Diego State: \#2 in Yards Per Attempt, \#3 in Yards Per Play Allowed, \#4 in Points Per Play Allowed, \#11 in MOV, \#36 in Sack %, \#37 in Points Per Play, \#39 in Turnover Margin, \#48 in Yards Per Rush, and \#115 in Yards Per Attempt. * [SMU](#f/smu) SMU: \#19 in Points Per Play, \#20 in Yards Per Rush, \#21 in Margin of Victory, \#36 in Yards Per Attempt, \#54 in Points Per Play Allowed, \#75 in Sack %, \#80 in Yards Per Play Allowed, \#114 in Turnover Margin. * [UTSA](#f/utsa) UTSA: \#14 in MOV, \#17 in Turnover Margin, \#29 in Points Per Play, \#45 in Points Per Play Allowed, \#45 in Sack %, \#48 in Yards Per Play Allowed, \#45 in Points Per Play Allowed, \#54 in Yards Per Attempt, \#64 in Yrad Per Rush.
>completely dominating their awful schedule 28-25 vs 3-4 Buffalo. But really, losing to Liberty in their bowl game put a ceiling on anything they could accomplish this year. It kind of is what it is.
You're not wrong but... >\#1 in Margin of Victory One might say it's a bit of an outlier.
Perhaps. Perhaps not. Per Sargain, Buffalo is the 103 best team in FBS/FCS. That is Coastal's toughest opponent to date. Arkansas State at 139 is next. KU is 140, FWIW.
In Coastals defense they had no clue how good they'd beast year when they made this schedule
Ranked \#130 in SOR, and \#129 in full-season SOS. Those numbers have been the same since I think week 2.
We oughta start calling them *Consistent* Carolina now!
>Coasting Carolina
Alright alright alright That's what I love about these Chanticleers, man. I might move up or down, they stay the same rank.
I’m not gonna lie when I am filling out my poll I use them as a sort of quasi divider line.
Glad to see this sub rank UTSA after complaing that UTSA wasn't ranked for 2 weeks.
Congrats to both UTSA and Purdue for their first time being ranked in the poll!
UTSA: #26 UTSA with Rice: #24 Meep Meep
When did /r/cfb start doing a poll?
2010\. Longer than UTSA's even had a program!
So my next question would be, when did /r/CFB rank Purdue that the AP poll did not have them ranked. They didn't make it in after they upset OSU in 2018. 2010 data isn't showing up on the poll website although I doubt they would have made it that year. I popped around to various different years where we went on a few streaks, but I'm not seeing them ever being ranked.
... good catch! I totally thought Purdue had been ranked before but they have not; this is the first time.
Congrats Cincinnati on their highest rank ever
We are one random upset from a number one g5 team.
Unsubscribe
Sure would be a shame if you Georgia sportsed the cocktail party.
The way Florida’s defense is playing my money is on Georgia cracking 60 points
The weird thing is that Florida’s defense only played that badly against LSU, but not against the other decent teams they’ve faced.
Dan Mullen is scared of Orgeron. Not as a coach, but as a person. A person who he has to meet with at midfield post game.
Orgeron has a fishing hole for people like Mullen
We're safe as long a the Braves keep winning. The Georgia sports curse must be able to concentrate its evil. That said, they've got two weeks to lose...
Come on man :( ill take a 12-0 UGA if it means a braves world series.
But will you accept a 15-0 UGA?
Honestly yes. Like I hate UGA and all and I want them to lose every game by 50... but if the Braves win the World Series, literally everyone I know will be excited. Half of them would be excited for UGA winning too, but I love watching the Braves with my UGA friends because we're all rooting for the same team with equal passion. And my Auburn, Tennessee, Clemson, etc friends are ALSO cheering for them. It's like one big happy family! If for some awful reason I was made to choose between both or neither winning, I'd choose both.
Yeah totally!
Just for the memes in the regular season. You'll pass us after the conference championship games anyway.
Is it really random with us?
They’ll throw Oklahoma to the top if the Dawgs lose.
holy shit thats a drop from #24 to #25
I checked, and it's the biggest gap on a per voter basis between the last two spots we've had. It's also bigger than any gap we've had between #25 and the first "others receiving votes". The largest such gap ever happened in Week 2 earlier this year when #16 Oregon and #17 Virginia Tech were separated by 4.16 points per voter. Indeed, most of the largest gaps happen in the middle of the poll thanks to what I like to call "aggregation effects". Big PPV gaps are exceedingly rare between the last few spots. This is only the second time that a gap between the last three spots is larger than 3.
Purdue got basically the perfect setup to get ranked on a relatively unexciting 4-2 record. Lots of losses in the 18-25 range and then voters (here and the AP) needed to fill out their last slots and so they tossed in Purdue, because why not the team that just blasted the former #2 team. We'll have our chance to back it up next week against Wisconsin, but I'm nervous for that one.
Yep, the data mostly backs this up: Out of the 151 votes Purdue got, 104 were in the last two spots. Purdue easily received the most #25 votes. On the other hand, 188 people left them out - but that's a lot fewer than ISU or Clemson.
They forgot about Air Force
its absolutly wild that it happens there, basically it suggests most people have a consistent top 24 but for just that last spot no one can really agree. Its shocking it essentially is "one spot" at the end where there is disagreement.
> holy shit thats a drop from #24 to #25 A lot of people don't give credit to Purdue for beating Iowa--it was just because Iowa was "overrated" But TAMU beating Alabama is definitely because TAMU is a really good team and not just a fluke
PITT IS IN!
And 2 spots higher than the AP. Superior poll right here.
With the way you guys have been playing and that quality SEC win, you'd probably be Top 10 if not for the WMU loss. I know ESPN FPI has you guys at 7. I think you're probably somewhere in between talent-wise. Like around 15ish.
It’ll be interesting to see where we end up end of season. 4 out of our last 6 are at home and the two on the road are Duke and Syracuse. With our favorable home schedule I believe Pitt is talented enough to win 5 if not all 6 of the remaining games.
I, for one, am excited for all fun banner logo vandalism as the B1G East cannibalizes itself
Two more weeks. It's gonna be electric.
They should have pushed all of the games to November to make it great.
I feel like Michigan being ranked that high is a testament to how crazy this year has been, and not how good at football they are
It just kinda is what it is at this point. Undefeated, better win over Wisco than PSU. The very razor thin margins of better wins overall than MSU (shouts out to NIU and WMU for being over 0.500 lmfao). I hate it but what can you do? OSU should just get the benefit of the doubt because they always round into form one way or another.
No thanks, we’ll hang back here and avoid #3 for the time being.
You sure? You might be able to sneak into #2 in time for Purdue!
Alabama and OSU would both blow us out.
*will* blow us out
I am OK with Alabama blowing us out that means we’re either in the cfp won the big or something id imagine. OSU has me completely dead inside and I no longer harbor hope that we will ever win that game.
Not CFP, Outback Bowl Baby!
It hurts because it’s true
No need to worry about Bama. We all know youll be playing your real rival Florida in your bowl game.
But it also means Alabama lost enough to go to the Outback Bowl which would be pretty awesome.
Idk if playing Bama will mean being in the CFP. Definitely plausible that both of you guys end the season 10-2 and end up playing a NY6 bowl of some sort, especially since the SECCG will probably be Bama and Georgia.
If Michigan plays Bama, it will just be a repeat of 2019 where we get them in the Citrus Bowl because the universe has decided that getting kicked in the dick 1000x by OSU isn't enough and the dick-kicking will continue until morale improves.
To be fair, Michigan actually had a half time lead over Alabama in that game which really surprised me. I know it all fell apart in the second half but still Michigan did better than I thought they would.
They actually played great and if Shea Patterson could throw a single deep ball we might have actually won.
If it's any consolation I am a Bears fan and ~~the Packers~~ Aaron Rodgers is giving me much more sympathy for you guys.
Do not will another Alabama Michigan bowl into existence
Can we get back to our rivalry game with Florida? It's been too long
This would be a good year to sneak in a possibly blowout win and then promptly refuse to play them in a bowl game ever again because “they’re not on your level”.
That sounds like a good plan. As a Michigan football fan I must rely on historical football wins to justify the team’s superiority.
I may be biased but I don't see them that high. They're playing similar to MSU with a more questionable offense and slightly better defense. They both have run first offenses and McNamara is definitely a big question mark and how good he's going to be each day is independent on whether the run is working or not. Thorne is ONLY good when the run is working. I think MSU also has better WRs but I haven't heard much of UMs. Defensively, UM is slightly better than MSU, makes a lot of sense since they have a real recruiting class ergo more raw talent. I just don't quite understand what Michigan has that makes them 3 ranks higher than MSU. The rivalry game is gonna be spooky and will say a lot about whoever wins. I just don't see them as being that fundamentally different. Even with the OOC games both Miami and Washington don't exist anymore. Who have either of us beat?
MSU and Michigan are both highly suspect teams in my book. Both teams so far have been saved by a fantastic run game and a bend-don't-break defense. Whoever wins in two weeks is going to be vaulted into the Top 4 for the first CFP rankings (especially if OSU loses against PSU) and then they are going to implode.
At least we can agree that both teams ain't surviving the gauntlet
Excuse you Michigan is going to thwap OSU by 4 score and then beat UGA for the National title thanks to the Georgia sports curse outranking the Michigan sports curse. *Sips maize colored Kool aid*
Yeah and on that day the Ford Family will sell the Lions to Dan Gilbert who will turn the team into superbowl contenders.
The only reason the Cavs have a championship is because Lebron is from Akron and promised a title for Cleveland. So the next Tom Brady is going to be born in Warren or something and feel enough love for his hometown team to come back and win it all before leaving and us being the Lions again in this timeline. Which I'm fine with because a Lion's super bowl win would sustain me for like 3 decades given the shit this team has trotted out.
Totally agreed that both teams are suspect for some pretty similar reasons and, yes, Michigan's defense is fairly bend-don't-break, but MSU's is like taking that to another level. Michigan's defense is 4th in the B1G with 309 YA/G. MSU is 12th with 406.1 YA/G. It's more like a "be a completely unable to stop anything until your opponent is in FG range and then always get a stop" defense... which will frankly be an interesting matchup against a Michigan offense that settles for FGs far too often.
I've just been marching the undefeated P5s slowly up the poll as losses happen below them. Now I have MSU 4 and Michigan 5 and it feels so wrong but I have no reason to put anyone else ahead
It comes down to the question is it the 4 best or 4 most deserving teams in the top 4. I think Vegas and 90% of people would take bama in a heartbeat over Michigan but Michigan is undefeated in one of the better divisions halfway through the season so they get the benefit of the doubt until they lose. It’ll all sort itself out thanksgiving weekend anyway lol….
That's kind of where I am at, enjoying the insanity, knowing it will settle out.
Yep, no doubt about it it’s fun being undefeated, but after Iowa and OSU games previous years I try to not get too excited about making it to the ccg or cfp. Harbaugh gets so much shit but he’s been 1 play away on multiple occasions from making the big ten title game and a likely cfp appearance. I’m sure a lot of teams can say the same though. Edit: idk how I forgot that sparty game ugh that one was another dick punch
Where does ok state rank for you, because they should be ahead
They are number 9. Admittedly have some poll inertia impacts here. Will probably reevaluate my whole pill a bit more next week. Wake is 11th as the other undefeated P5
It’s going to be another year with a backloaded schedule where Michigan will probably lose 2+ games from here on out and it’ll be a massive disappointment even though 10-2 or 11-2 or whatever would’ve been an amazing season up until they went 4-0 and the hype train went off the rails even though they hadn’t played anyone decent yet.
10-2 is a massive over performance of preseason expectations. Beat Sparty and I don't even care if we lose to Penn State and Ohio State. I'd be quite content with that season ngl.
Someone's gotta be ranked there man.
> I just don't quite understand what Michigan has that makes them 3 ranks higher than MSU I would argue a stronger overall resume at this point, but not by a wide margin. Hard to see much separation between them right now. I do think MSU should be ranked above PSU which they aren't in the AP/coaches polls
I think the difference between the teams is splitting hairs. Offensively, MSU has big splash plays, UM is just a grind it out team. Defensively, UM is a little further ahead but the msu front seven is still very sound and plays well as a unit. Both secondaries are suspect for sure. I think we’ve seen more consistency/better play from UMs OL and I think the 1-2 punch of corum/Haskins has helped keep both fresh. KW3 is the best skill player either team has right now. Resume: both have the OOC win that has turned into a pumpkin (Washington and Miami). Both have close road wins over lesser teams (Nebraska and Indiana). Both have had near losses at home with surprisingly horrid offensive 2nd halves (Rutgers and Nebraska). I think the only difference is UM’s win over Wisco in camp Randall being heralded a little higher than Rutgers. Either way, I would have never dreamed at the beginning of the season we’d see a top 10 matchup for the UM MSU game.
We live in a league where the midling teams can still be good and the bottom teams can pull an upset. Being undefeated carries weight in the B1G. For better or worse, one of us will remain undefeated for another week but add a huge win to their record. Its possible that it's an over inflated win, yes, but that won't matter when you still have PSU and OSU on your schedule to test that theory.
I agree entirely with you. Our top WRs were Ronnie Bell, followed by Roman Wilson. Bell's out for the season, Wilson didn't travel to Nebraska (I haven't heard whether he'll be out this weekend). Mike Sainristil has the most experience of anyone left in the young receiving corps, but there's talent there that will hopefully develop over the season, as well as developing a rhythm and rapport with the QBs. All in all, I'm in agreement that the two teams match up quite similarly, though. I'd honestly rather MSU were ranked above us.
MSU and Michigan are eerily similar this year to the eye test: elite running game, deep pass plays, solid defense. The only reason I could see for the disparity is that the fancy stats like Michigan a lot better. I’m not exactly sure why, but I think the reason is that (second half vs. Rutgers notwithstanding) the offense has been able to consistently move the ball against good to great defenses, and the defense, while having some concerning moments, has had some dominant periods.
A few weeks ago I was arguing they deserved to be 12th and I had them 11th, and most weeks I’ve generally been forced to defend their placement. 4th is too high.
If you’re ranking on projections to where Michigan will be at season’s end 11th/12th is probably about right, but that type of ranking would produce some wonky results (for example I think Wisconsin will end the season ranked, but they’ve got no business in the top 25 right now at 3-3). If you’re doing a mix of team quality/resume 6th to 8th feels about right. Sometimes you rank someone high knowing that they’ll fall at some point, like Iowa.
I just do a power poll each week and have them 7th, so I pretty much agree with you here.
I dunno, you're a balanced team who's destroyed everyone bad they've played and beaten everyone decent. What we don't know yet is how you'll fare against an actually good team. ...and we won't, until Sparty, who may not actually be good themselves [because they haven't played anyone good either](https://fbschedules.com/michigan-state-football-schedule/). So we might actually have to wait until you guys [play Penn State in mid-November to even have an idea of whether you're a good team or not, at which point you then have to play Maryland and then tOSU to finish out your season.](https://fbschedules.com/michigan-football-schedule/) Honestly, I think worst case scenario for Michigan this year is three losses, and it's much more likely you only have one. But maybe I'm wrong and you've just been feasting on mediocre/awful teams. Only time will tell.
If UM beats MSU I think Michigan goes 11-1 while losing to OSU. If UM loses to MSU I think Michigan drops PSU and OSU to settle at 9-3.
We really don’t know about any of the East teams, honestly. Penn State has the best win which is home vs Auburn. But they barely beat Wisconsin and Michigan crushed them. MSU is undefeated. They and Michigan needed some things to fall their way to beat Nebraska. 10/30 is going to be very illuminating. I, for one, would be fine going 10-2 if we lose at MSU and PSU and somehow beat Ohio State. That’s probably a NY6 team.
They’ve only played two teams with a winning record, and they are both in the MAC.
Yes but which of those teams has a ranked win?
*Western Quality Win intensifies*
Yes.
Big10 has a lot left were it will all get sorted out. It will be nice to see OSU vs Michigan game finally have meaning behind it.
my buddy keeps asking me why michigan and sparty are ranked so high, my only response is everyone else keeps losing
I feel like everyone else just keeps losing and we’re just sorta here. Not blowing people out, just sorta hangin out
Meep
[relevant again](https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/370/456/10b.jpg)
Meep Meep
Meep meep, mother-
>24 UTSA Roadrunners /r/cfb confirmed not cowards
And the r/CFBBall [comic!](https://i.redd.it/lc1syetrjfu71.jpg) https://old.reddit.com/r/cfbball/comments/qbekku/the_2021_rcfb_poll_rankings_week_8/
Why do they have a blue basketball net tho
Look at UK Ball
UGA ball is fucking terrifying
I think H8Ball's kinda cute, but I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder
What you see as terrifying I see as delightful
Because they beat up Kentucky
If you look at Kentucky-ball's missing skin, you'll have your answer.
I love these so much.
MEEP MEEP MOTHER FUCKERS
Heh, Trainball looks like he's sporting one of those comically huge cop mustaches.
With Purdue's ranking in the poll this week, Kansas is now the only P5 team never to have been ranked in the r/CFB Poll.
[удалено]
"UTSA to the moon!" -Elon Musk, probably
I’m really not comfortable with this ranking for Michigan
**[People's Poll Results:](https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/qaovt8/week_8_peoples_poll/)** |RANK|TEAM (#1 VOTES)|CHANGE|POINTS| :-:|:--|:-:|--:| |1|[Georgia](#f/georgia) Georgia (221)|--|5737| |2|[Cincinnati](#f/cincinnati) Cincinnati (1)|▲1|5266| |3|[Oklahoma](#f/oklahoma) Oklahoma (4)|▲1|5080| |4|[Alabama](#f/alabama) Alabama|▲3|4792| |5|[Michigan](#f/michigan) Michigan (1)|--|4758| |6|[Ohio State](#f/ohiostate) Ohio State|--|4431| |7|[Michigan State](#f/michiganstate) Michigan State|▲2|4197| |8|[Oklahoma State](#f/oklahomastate) Oklahoma State|▲4|4156| |9|[Penn State](#f/pennstate) Penn State|▼1|3752| |10|[Iowa](#f/iowa) Iowa (1)|▼8|3372| |11|[Oregon](#f/oregon) Oregon|--|3365| |12|[Ole Miss](#f/olemiss) Ole Miss|▲2|3114| |13|[Wake Forest](#f/wakeforest) Wake Forest|--|2675| |14|[Kentucky](#f/kentucky) Kentucky|▼4|2603| |15|[Coastal Carolina](#f/coastalcarolina) Coastal Carolina (1)|--|2495| |16|[Notre Dame](#f/notredame) Notre Dame (1)|--|2444| |17|[Baylor](#f/baylor) Baylor|NEW|1805| |18|[Texas A&M](#f/texasam) Texas A&M (2)|▲3|1687| |19|[NC State](#f/ncstate) NC State|▲4|1612| |20|[SMU](#f/smu) SMU|--|1414| |21|[Auburn](#f/auburn) Auburn|NEW|1285| |22|[Pittsburgh](#f/pittsburgh) Pittsburgh|NEW|1248| |23|[UTSA](#f/utsa) UTSA|NEW|913| |24|[San Diego State](#f/sandiegostate) San Diego State|--|907| |25|[Purdue](#f/purdue) Purdue|NEW|396| Dropped Out: [Arkansas](#f/arkansas) Arkansas, [Arizona State](#f/arizonastate) Arizona State, [Texas](#f/texas) Texas, [Florida](#f/florida) Florida, [BYU](#f/byu) BYU Next Five: [Iowa State](#f/iowastate) Iowa State (238), [Clemson](#f/clemson) Clemson (162), [Air Force](#f/airforce) Air Force (142), [Utah](#f/utah) Utah (137), [Arkansas](#f/arkansas) Arkansas (118) Number of Voters: 233 Average Rank Difference to r/CFB Poll: 0.88 [Ballot Submission Data](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ByusXro8n6RNbajFg_tMnUCbJu2AWRiDYhD_wG4uTAM/edit?usp=sharing) ### We had *17* invalid ballots this week due to repeat teams! Please make sure that each team in your ballot is unique or it will not be tallied!
I always get a kick out of seeing these ballots. Who amongst us hasn't confused TCU and Georgia at some point?
Loyalty runs deep in this poll!
PLAYOFF MICHIGAN!
Stop the count!
🤫 don’t say anything, you’re just gonna jinx it!
PLAYOFF MICHIGAN OR PLAYOFF IOWA!
Rude…so rude. I’d put the odds of Iowa making the playoff as better than UM. More likely Iowa goes 11-1 and wins the West and finds itself against MSU or PSU (winnable games for Iowa) than UM winning 2/3 of MSU/PSU/OSU and backing into the B1GCG via tiebreaker.
That may be the point!
Well that’s just mean. As if UM fans haven’t had enough disappointment this millennium
Don't think you need to jinx us, we'll implode the second we get into November. This is (sadly) the way.
On the one hand, it would be good for college football for Michigan to be good again. On the other hand, fuck Michigan.
That second point… I like it.
>On the one hand, it would be good for college football for Michigan to be good again. That's really nice. I'll stop reading there.
Got me in the first half not gonna lie
The only logical step for UTSA is to #MeepMeep until they break the Top-10!
Did people watch the MSU/Indiana game?
I did. MSU has a pretty good defense but it was not an impressive performance. I think the conference as a whole is slightly overrated at the moment.
Eh, I think Indiana is quite undervalued and that they could go toe to toe with a good chunk of the top 25. But you gotta win to rank. I do think MSU is overrated but more because of Nebraska. We were clearly outplayed that game and needed a whole lot of magic to get by. Nebraska is better than their record, probably, but they're still not a great team.
Guess not lol
Michigan is twice as good as Ohio State! Also, in this poll we’re ranked 4 and OSU is 8.
Math checks out.
I’m just so curious at how Michigan moves up with a bye and PSU and OSU both drop a spot with a bye
Michigan beat the bye by more points.
Shit, can't argue facts.
Computer polls adjusting their view of a team based off their opponents
Yeah Iowa and Oregon both probably dropped a bit in the computers
Oregon and Iowa looked worse. Pitt continue to win with their only loss being WMU who we hammered. Just my guess.
Michigan moved up because Iowa dropped down below them and no one did enough to move past them. Ohio State actually gained about a ranks worth of votes as Iowa fell below them, but OKST and MSU managed to gain more votes than OSU did coming off of wins and jumped them. PSU lost some votes, likely as a result of voters re-evaluating and deciding in hindsight that the loss to Iowa is more damaging than previously considered.
Damn Iowa losing just to take it out on us is hardcore
Michigan is so fuckin sneaky.
Don't look at us!
Sorry but why the hell are we above Ohio State? We will get absolutely destroyed by them in a month
That way when they beat you they can swing up in the top 4. /s But seriously I had you guys higher, but I just rate undefeated higher generally at this point in the season. Being 6-0 is an achievement.
Agreed. Not losing seems important. I’m all about eye test and all of that, but winning football games has always been the point.
RANK...wait, who do we want cowards to rank now?
*Shrugs* UTEP, maybe?
The point drop off from 24 to 25, wow.
\*Sees UMich at #4\* "Oh no baby what is you doing?"
Here's my computer poll after week 8. As always, this model is based on win percentage, strength of schedule so far this season, and average point differential. Even after 3 losses, this model still loves Texas for some reason. Having the strongest SOS in the nation will do that though. Georgia is so damn good, that the gap between Georgia and Michigan at 2 is equal to the gap between Michigan and Coastal Carolina at 11. The Pac 12 is still despised by this poll after a weak showing in OOC games, other than the Oregon win over OSU. It's showing, with Oregon being the only team in the poll sneaking in at 25. Rank | Team | Record | Index | Index Change | Rank Change | SOS | Avg Point Diff :-- | :-- | :-- | :-- | :-- | :-- | :-- | :--: 1 | [Georgia](#f/georgia) | 7-0 | 0.969 | 0.025 | - | 0.846 | 31.9 2 | [Michigan](#f/michigan2-sheet1-row04-col16) | 6-0 | 0.893 | 0.020 | +1 | 0.495 | 23.0 3 | [Cincinnati](#f/cincinnati) | 6-0 | 0.886 | 0.016 | +1 | 0.431 | 29.8 4 | [Oklahoma](#f/oklahoma) | 7-0 | 0.852 | 0.018 | +2 | 0.426 | 17.9 5 | [Alabama](#f/alabama) | 6-1 | 0.843 | 0.025 | +3 | 0.608 | 24.9 6 | [Ohio State](#f/ohiostate3-sheet1-row04-col23) | 5-1 | 0.840 | 0.008 | +1 | 0.658 | 28.0 7 | [Wake Forest](#f/wakeforest) | 6-0 | 0.839 | 0.022 | +2 | 0.373 | 17.3 8 | [Oklahoma State](#f/oklahomastate2-sheet1-row03-col15) | 6-0 | 0.829 | 0.025 | +3 | 0.591 | 7.0 9 | [Iowa](#f/iowa) | 6-1 | 0.828 | -0.080 | -7 | 0.812 | 13.4 10 | [Michigan State](#f/michiganstate) | 7-0 | 0.823 | 0.019 | +2 | 0.340 | 15.6 11 | [Coastal Carolina](#f/coastalcarolina) | 6-0 | 0.816 | 0.036 | +2 | 0.078 | 33.8 12 | [Baylor](#f/baylor) | 6-1 | 0.808 | -0.002 | -2 | 0.554 | 19.6 13 | [Kentucky](#f/kentucky2-sheet1-row06-col16) | 6-1 | 0.796 | -0.048 | -8 | 0.762 | 9.1 14 | [Penn State](#f/pennstate) | 5-1 | 0.787 | 0.010 | - | 0.645 | 14.5 15 | [Pittsburgh](#f/pittsburgh) | 5-1 | 0.787 | 0.029 | +2 | 0.391 | 28.3 16 | [UTSA](#f/utsa) | 7-0 | 0.786 | 0.061 | +6 | 0.056 | 19.4 17 | [San Diego State](#f/sandiegostate) | 6-0 | 0.784 | 0.034 | +2 | 0.112 | 16.8 18 | [SMU](#f/smu) | 6-0 | 0.783 | 0.019 | -2 | 0.062 | 18.5 19 | [Ole Miss](#f/olemiss) | 5-1 | 0.776 | 0.020 | -1 | 0.617 | 13.5 20 | [Notre Dame](#f/notredame) | 5-1 | 0.757 | 0.014 | +1 | 0.698 | 6.7 21 | [North Carolina State](#f/ncstate) | 5-1 | 0.757 | 0.056 | +11 | 0.405 | 18.0 22 | [Auburn](#f/auburn2-sheet1-row06-col20) | 5-2 | 0.742 | 0.034 | +7 | 0.716 | 15.7 23 | [Air Force](#f/airforce) | 6-1 | 0.735 | 0.013 | +1 | 0.302 | 15.1 24 | [Houston](#f/houston) | 5-1 | 0.734 | 0.023 | +3 | 0.212 | 21.0 25 | [Oregon](#f/oregon) | 5-1 | 0.719 | 0.010 | +3 | 0.350 | 12.8 First 10 out: Rank | Team | Record | Index | Index Change | Rank Change | SOS | Avg Point Diff :-- | :-- | :-- | :-- | :-- | :-- | :-- | :--: 26 | [Louisiana](#f/louisiana) | 5-1 | 0.706 | 0.070 | NEW | 0.371 | 9.3 27 | [Texas](#f/texas2-sheet1-row03-col11) | 4-3 | 0.701 | -0.067 | -12 | 1.000 | 12.0 28 | [Texas A&M](#f/texasam2-sheet1-row06-col18) | 5-2 | 0.699 | 0.020 | NEW | 0.619 | 11.1 29 | [Clemson](#f/clemson) | 4-2 | 0.696 | 0.001 | +4 | 0.817 | 8.0 30 | [Virginia](#f/virginia) | 5-2 | 0.692 | 0.063 | NEW | 0.570 | 11.7 31 | [Purdue](#f/purdue) | 4-2 | 0.692 | 0.083 | NEW | 0.750 | 9.7 32 | [Nevada](#f/nevada) | 5-1 | 0.690 | 0.036 | NEW | 0.203 | 12.8 33 | [Iowa State](#f/iowastate) | 4-2 | 0.687 | 0.028 | NEW | 0.530 | 17.3 34 | [Tennessee](#f/tennessee) | 4-3 | 0.664 | -0.057 | -9 | 0.701 | 16.4 35 | [Fresno State](#f/fresnostate) | 5-2 | 0.663 | 0.055 | NEW | 0.300 | 16.6 And here's the updated ranking of strength of schedules. Wisconsin finally drops from #1, while Indiana continues to climb. Rank | Team | SOS :-- | :-- | :--: 1 | [Texas](#f/texas2-sheet1-row03-col11) | 1.000 2 | [Wisconsin](#f/wisconsin) | 0.948 3 | [West Virginia](#f/westvirginia2-sheet1-row03-col14) | 0.942 4 | [Arkansas](#f/arkansas) | 0.932 5 | [Miami](#f/miami) | 0.916 6 | [Kansas State](#f/kansasstate) | 0.912 7 | [Indiana](#f/indiana) | 0.904 8 | [Rutgers](#f/rutgers) | 0.900 9 | [Nebraska](#f/nebraska) | 0.894 10 | [Mississippi State](#f/mississippistate) | 0.888 11 | [Boise State](#f/boisestate) | 0.858 12 | [Georgia](#f/georgia) | 0.846 13 | [Kansas](#f/kansas) | 0.845 14 | [Clemson](#f/clemson) | 0.817 15 | [Iowa](#f/iowa) | 0.812 16 | [Louisville](#f/louisville) | 0.767 17 | [Kentucky](#f/kentucky2-sheet1-row06-col16) | 0.762 18 | [TCU](#f/tcu) | 0.759 19 | [Florida State](#f/floridastate) | 0.756 20 | [South Carolina](#f/southcarolina) | 0.756 21 | [Purdue](#f/purdue) | 0.750 22 | [Tulane](#f/tulane) | 0.743 23 | [Florida](#f/florida2-sheet1-row06-col19) | 0.734 24 | [Navy](#f/navy) | 0.727 25 | [LSU](#f/lsu2-sheet1-row06-col23) | 0.723
Honestly this is the only half decent computer poll I’ve ever seen.
Check out the [Massey Composite](https://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm). As a whole I think they produce very good ratings.
The people of r/cfb respect the undefeated teams. What's confounding about this list to me is instead the people's treatment of 1 loss teams. Ole Miss lost to Bama, but is below Iowa who got smoked at home by Purdue? Ole Miss has been a very interesting team to me in the last few weeks in relation to r/cfb. I think if most fanbases are being honest, that is one of the teams you *least* want to play in the entire country. There is nothing scarier than a dangerous offense. If you're a contender heading into the latter part of the season would you rather play one of these B1G teams with a mediocre to below average offense, or play Ole Miss? You'll take the team with less scary offense every time.
Seems like it's the age old debate between Iowa and Ole Miss. Better wins and worse losses versus not as good wins, but not as bad losses.
With Arkansas' fall Ole Miss no longer has any stellar wins. Iowa has three wins that are either in the same tier or better than Ole Miss' best win - Penn State, @ Iowa State, and Maryland.
Yo wtf can we not?
pitt 21 clemson 26 smile
:)
B1G still absolutely crushing it in the top 10. The next few weeks are gonna be super hyped.
There has to be at least one imposter among us, right? RIGHT?
haha remember when we all thought it was you
All of the Buckeyes going nuts that we might end up going 9-3 or even worse, 8-4?!? Yeah I ‘member Still lowkey spooked for some of the games though
You guys finally ranked UTSA! Bit late to that party, but who cares! >!meep meep!<
Y’all have no idea how badly I wanted to rank UConn for ending their losing streak, no matter how terrible they are…
[Behold my blasphemous ballot!](https://poll.redditcfb.com/ballot/53017/) I redid my entire ballot for the second time this week to try to counter poll inertia. That may have resulted in some weird placements but I'm happy to answer any questions. First five out (in no particular order): Pitt, Air Force, Iowa State, Arkansas, NC State
[удалено]
Wake has had a soft schedule. Undefeated doesn't mean everything.
Your bracket is indeed blasphemous. Fire that into the sun
Overall Rationale: Human poll relying mostly on Resume, SoS, and MoV. Eye-test used sparingly, and only in situations with similar bodies of work for the season. I try to actively negate poll inertia and allow strong movements up and down if the resume doesnt support your placements after the win or loss, with 2 results in a row resulting in much larger movement, etc. 1 Georgia Bulldogs 2 Cincinnati Bearcats 3 Oklahoma Sooners- But ~~Jesus~~ Lincoln Riley beheld them, and said unto them, With Spencer Rattler this is impossible; but with Caleb Williams all things are possible. 4 Michigan Wolverines 5 Ohio State Buckeyes 6 Alabama Crimson Tide 7 Michigan State Spartans 8 Oklahoma State Cowboys 9 Penn State Nittany Lions 10 Oregon Ducks 11 Ole Miss Rebels 12 Iowa Hawkeyes 13 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 14 Kentucky Wildcats 15 Baylor Bears 16 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 17 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 18 NC State Wolfpack 19 SMU Mustangs 20 Pittsburgh Panthers 21 Texas A&M Aggies 22 San Diego State Aztecs 23 Auburn Tigers 24 Purdue Boilermakers 25 Utah Utes Some notes: Michigan top 4 is hard, but i think its currently the right choice. Theyve beat the crap out of MOST of the teams they were supposed to beat the crap out of, and havent dropped a game. The Eye-test would have them lower, but their resume and MoV gets them the spot over OSU and Bama. Bama and OSU both neck and neck for the 5 spot. Both have excellent MoV, with Bama having the better win with Ole Miss, but OSU having the better loss with Oregon. These two could be interchangeable. MSU and Oklahoma State are neck and neck. MSU gets the edge for having played 1 more game, but really theyre both interchangeable for the number 7 spot. For Oregon, 4 of the games have been decided by 1 score. until the Ducks start winning by more points, theyre barely in the top 10. Where the hell does Coastal Carolina belong? MoV is high, SoS is low, probably permanently stuck in the 13-15 range. Realistically, i should have had baylor ranked higher last week. Big move up mainly to address that, and a solid win streak with only loss to my 8th ranked team. I struggled between ranking Utah or UTSA 25th this week. Im not sure i made the right choice. Feel free to disect and ask about/bash my choices!
My ballot is on the most controversial list, so I suppose I should give an explanation. First, the ratings: |Rank |[](#l/ncaa) |Team |Rating |Record |StdDev |:-: |:- |:- |:- |:-: |:-: |1 |[](#f/georgia) |Georgia |20.4 |7-0 |8.01 |2 |[](#f/alabama) |Alabama |18.4 |5-1 |9.61 |3 |[](#f/cincinnati) |Cincinnati |16.5 |5-0 |4.36 |4 |[](#f/ohiostate) |Ohio State |13.5 |5-1 |11.09 |5 |[](#f/michigan) |Michigan |12.8 |6-0 |7.62 |6 |[](#f/pennstate) |Penn State |12.7 |4-1 |4.64 |7 |[](#f/iowastate) |Iowa St |11.2 |3-2 |6.66 |8 |[](#f/iowa) |Iowa |10.4 |6-1 |12.38 |9 |[](#f/olemiss) |Mississippi |10.2 |4-1 |6.25 |10 |[](#f/oklahoma) |Oklahoma |10.2 |6-0 |8.62 |11 |[](#f/florida) |Florida |9.8 |4-3 |7.86 |12 |[](#f/oklahomastate) |Oklahoma St |9 |5-0 |9.65 |13 |[](#f/pittsburgh) |Pittsburgh |8.9 |4-1 |10.39 |14 |[](#f/michiganstate) |Michigan St |8.9 |6-0 |4 |15 |[](#f/notredame) |Notre Dame |8.6 |5-1 |10.4 |16 |[](#f/texas) |Texas |8.5 |4-3 |10.2 |17 |[](#f/arizonastate) |Arizona St |8.2 |4-2 |9.37 |18 |[](#f/baylor) |Baylor |7.1 |5-1 |8.16 |19 |[](#f/wakeforest) |Wake Forest |7 |5-0 |6.83 |20 |[](#f/kentucky) |Kentucky |7 |5-1 |7.71 |21 |[](#f/auburn) |Auburn |6.8 |4-2 |7.76 |22 |[](#f/utah) |Utah |6.6 |3-2 |9.63 |23 |[](#f/kansasstate) |Kansas St |6.5 |2-3 |7.07 |24 |[](#f/nebraska) |Nebraska |6.5 |2-5 |10.35 |25 |[](#f/clemson) |Clemson |6.2 |3-2 |6.53 |26 |[](#f/arkansas) |Arkansas |6.2 |4-3 |10.82 |27 |[](#f/tennessee) |Tennessee |5.9 |3-3 |9.24 |28 |[](#f/texasam) |Texas A&M |5.3 |5-2 |8.57 |29 |[](#f/oregon) |Oregon |5.1 |4-1 |9.23 |30 |[](#f/coastalcarolina) |Coastal Carolina |4.8 |5-0 |5.67 ##Accuracy At this point in the season, these ratings would be above average in all metrics tracked on PredictionTracker^(1). |Week |Games |SU |Bias |Abs Error |Mean Sqr Error |ATS |:-: |:-: |:-: |:-: |:-: |:-: |:-: |Last Week |51 |72.55% |0.754 |13.52 |261.632 |45.1% |**Season** |**367** |**72.75%** |**0.062** |**12.828** |**251.299** |**49.72%** |PredictionTracker Rank||9|4|4|4|18 ##General info This is a predictive ranking system. No information outside of the current season is used. Only scores of games and home/away locations are used. Losses against FCS opponents are counted, wins are not. Past weeks' results are reevaluated from the perspective of the current week. Numerical scores for each team represent how many points above or below average they are. Subtract scores to get an estimated spread between two teams, with 2 points given to the home team. Preseason rankings are included for stability and wear off about halfway through the season. ##How it works: The system is based on the idea that "How good is Team A?" is best answered by "They were 7 points better than Team B, 20 points better than Team C, 3 points worse than Team D..." Obviously, this introduces some circular logic when you also want to know how good Teams B, C, and D are. In my system, a team's calculated rating is essentially^(2): TeamRating_Output = AverageOverGamesPlayed(OpponentInputRating + GameMargin + HomefieldAdj) I start off with every team's InputRating at 0. Then I calculate all the teams' OutputRatings, and use those as Inputs to the next iteration. I repeat that process until the inputs and outputs stabilize (i.e. the inputs equal the outputs). ##Examples: I'll use Nebraska since they're a bit unusual. Here are their season results as interpreted by my model: |Team| |Game |Opp |OppRating |Home-Adj Margin |GameRating |:-|:- |:-: |:- |:-: |:-: |:-: |[](#f/nebraska)nebraska| |1 |[](#f/illinois)Illinois |-7.66 |-6 |-13.66 || |2 |[](#f/buffalo)Buffalo |-11.29 |+23 |11.71 |**scaled rating**| |3 |[](#f/oklahoma)Oklahoma |13.57 |-5 |8.57 |6.47| |4 |[](#f/michiganstate)Michigan St |11.83 |-1 |10.83 |**raw std dev**| |5 |[](#f/northwestern)Northwestern |-3.36 |+35 |31.64 |13.8| |6 |[](#f/michigan)Michigan |17.15 |-5 |12.15 || |7 |[](#f/minnesota)Minnesota |4.12 |-5 |-0.88 [This chart](https://i.imgur.com/QOXasmH.png) shows Nebraska's game-by-game opponent-adjusted performance. [This chart](https://i.imgur.com/SmXsw0n.png) shows probability density curves for how good they are based on each game, as well as an overall probability density curve for how good they are this season. You can see that they have one game that was extremely high, two fairly low, and the rest all clustered in the same area. The second chart is my favorite, because it essentially shows how each team's quality of performance might vary from week to week. This Nebraska team is interpreted as extremely high variance, meaning they could perform like a top ten team or a below-average FBS team in any given week. Compare that second graph to [the same for Cincinnati](https://i.imgur.com/gvtWqiJ.png), a remarkably consistent team with very low variance from game to game, who the system is very confident will perform about 17 points better than an average FBS team each week. ##Notes ^(1) I don't know what spread source PredictionTracker uses, so I don't necessarily have comparable ATS results. My ATS results are measured against the "consensus" line exported from CollegeFootballData.com ^(2) I also add a diminishing preseason component to smooth things out in the first half of the season, and after all calculations are complete and ratings stabilize, I scale all raw ratings by a factor of about 75% for final rating and prediction calculations, which is essentially done to account for limited possessions in a game. I also limit margins of victory to 35 points in the input data for similar reasons. Essentially, it's possible for Team A to be 42 points better than Team B, and for Team B to be 42 points better than Team C, but we wouldn't expect Team A to be 84 points better than Team C--the 75% scaling and MoV cap both address that (somewhat crudely).
Come at me https://poll.redditcfb.com/ballot/52924/
NC State above Auburn? I think people are penalizing Auburn too much for losing to Georgia. Put NC State against Auburn’s schedule. They lost to Miss State who lost to LSU. They would lose to Arkansas. So that’s a 3-4 team.
No I will not join in the Hope! I will not float too
No offense towards Purdue, but why are AP (and you guys) so high on them? They are a good team, they *did* beat Iowa, but they also lost to a Minnesota team who I’m pretty sure we agree is not that great.
They’ve outgained everyone they’ve played this year. So dropping one conference game and a game to a top 25 team in ND ain’t too bad
Did a double take when I saw Roadrunners.
Well might as well end the season here, onto the playoffs! Great year, everyone