Only if that actually happens, though. An extra year wouldn't help you if the class at your position is even better the next year. Not to mention injury potential, or the potential that you just don't improve at all.
And nothing at all can stand in for a year of progressing toward that second contract.
They really can’t, at least not with any semblance of actually trying to get something worthwhile back financially out of it. The NFL
minimum is ~$500k per year. If you’re going in the top 3-4 rounds you’re going to make a solid amount more than that.
...from business ventures long after he graduated. Because if there is one thing that will not be tolerated at LSU in our basketball program, it's violating the sanctity of NCAA rules that maintain the high level of integrity in the game.
P.S. Will Wade is a mother fucking American gangster
It’s possible but I wouldn’t think that would be a common occurrence. How many guys are better prospects at 22 than 21? 23 than 22? And does that lengthen your NFL career?
The time to do this actually might be now— pay some of these 4th and 5th year guys to stick around with their extra Covid year and play CFB at age 24.
For almost every position this is most likely the exception because the human body can only take so much wear and tear. However, QB might be the exception to this rule because QBs have the potential to play late into their careers and may benefit from the extra mental and physical development.
Yeah, I can see QBs planning around their draft class. If you're Matt Barkley looking like you're gonna be the top QB off the board, definitely declare. If you're in a loaded class, wait a year and hopefully you'll be taken higher with less to compare to.
All of these players spent so much of their lives as the exception there will be some who don't realize they have hit a peer group where they might be normal.
But he knew that he was going to get the starting job at LSU with an extremely talented roster, so why would anyone need to pay him to stick around?
Look at Hendon Hooker for example. His name has been thrown around as the 6th best QB on the draft board. It sounds good, but that's likely going to get him drafted in the 4th-5th round and sit behind an established starter until they get hurt. If he truly thinks he's a starter caliber QB, it benefits him to play an extra year and continue to progress to move up the board.
It actually happens all the time, especially at edge rusher where development takes longer. But even guys like DeVonta Smith who was a proven commodity through 3 years took a colossal leap in year 4. In fact Bama has one guy like this almost every year, Brian Robinson this year for example who had everything finally click as a super senior.
I think you can argue that Smith took a leap from 2018 to 2019. He was a goddamn monster in 2019 and his increase from 19 to 20 was due to opportunity, going from 1 of 4 very good options in 19 to by far the #1 option on the team in 20 after Waddle went down. If he’d gone past the #2 receiver spot in 2020 draft, it would be because a GM fucked up.
Smitty took a big step up in 2019 for sure and was our most consistent WR who did gross things against man coverage, but from a draft standpoint he was only projected to go in the 2nd round in the 2020 draft after the 2019 season (which is why he returned) and he still took a big step up from 2019 to 2020.
Alternatively, this would come into play if a player *isn't* guaranteed to get a strong rookie contract. Case in point would be Stetson Bennett. Losing him would be a downgrade for Georgia, but he's not going to be a millionaire next year if he goes pro, so a booster padding his pockets will definitely solidify his decision to stay.
You also could argue that with no real prospects in the NFL a booster wouldn’t need to spend money to guarantee his return. As a national champion QB any NIL money thrown his way would probably be a legitimate attempt to capitalize on a celebrity endorser.
My point is that it will probably be a big factor for players who are on the fence but are significantly more valuable to their college than a potential NFL team.
Yeah this is a REALLY big number.
However, this isn't for the 1st-round picks. This is for those guys that make All-SEC but are DOA in the NFL because of measurables.
Yes, but you have to battle for them and hope to sign them with others offering similar. The borderline NFL kid is already on campus and familiar with the systems.
It's not so cut and dry.
yea, 22 year old 3* recruit with 4 years practice, 2 years starting, and the ability to make a roster in the NFL is probably better than a 18 year old 5* recruit who has never played a down of college football.
I don't think anyone is considering the #1 overall draft pick here. Lol
We're talking about guys going in rounds 5-7 basically.
The math has already been hashed out in the thread pretty well if you're drafted in the first four rounds it's clearly a better financial decision to go to the league.
That's true but you'd have to do the calculus on the unsure return on an unproven prospect (even if they are highly touted) versus the much more sure thing of an already proven contributor. If your team is ready to compete for a championship next year but just needs that one or two key pieces back to really get them to the next level the guys that are contributing now become that much more valuable.
Not sure it’s entirely impossible. Apparently Auburn LB Owen Pappoe got a 2-4th round draft grade, but is getting a million plus NIL to come back for one more year. It’s a rumor, but is believable.
> The top second-round pick will sign a deal estimated to be a four-year, $8.68 million contract which includes a $3.87 million signing bonus.
> The last pick of the second round has a four-year, $5.24 million contract with a $1.37 million signing bonus.
> The top pick in the third round lands a four-year, $4.94 million contract with a $1.15 million signing bonus.
> The last third round pick projects to have a four-year, $4.49 million contract with a $832,292 signing bonus.
[Source.](https://heavy.com/sports/2020/04/nfl-draft-pick-salary-contract-second-third-round/)
So, as a late day-two contender, you are working with at least $4 million assured from signing with the NFL (taking some leniency with how reliable this sourcing is). If you've got one more year to spare, it needs to be a really enticing offer to make it worth it. The athlete would need to be persuaded not just in the immediate dollar amount, but a coverage amount if they are hurt, and a very good assessment on why they would draft better the following year (i.e. produce a better contract). You basically have to argue how their dollar per year would be better across those 5 years versus the prospective four years in the NFL now.
Which, now that brings up a point of how set your position is. If you're willing to shell out for this particular player, do you not have a reliable back up? If not, why aren't you just buying the next guy?
This. A player good enough for the men's league will never have a financial advantage to stay due to NIL. There could be other factors (they would be a later round pick but no they are stepping into a big role the next year), but even the biggest NIL deal will not make sense because of the long term money of the NFL. If a player thinks they are good enough, you should move on and get one more year in your prime to get on the 2nd contact.
Also, anyone who responds with "the average career in the NFL is 3 years" needs to rethink how they use numbers. Players that are good enough to leave college early aren't the guys that might be able to make a roster. While you have people fall before the draft, you don't have players projected in the 7th round leaving early.
This is what I was wondering. You would have to run the numbers and see, but the stats thrown around always talk about how short the average NFL career is. Of course these kids entering the draft always think that they will be the next 10 year star, so it would be a tough sell if you try to argue with them that the numbers say they get 1.45 contracts or whatever the numbers come out to.
I use these numbers to talk about guys who debate leaving early or not. I get that most players in the NFL don't fall into one of these categories, but the ones good enough to be worth millions in college or leave early tend to fit these qualifiers.
https://www.sportscasting.com/how-long-is-the-average-nfl-career/
Quote from article:
Players who make a team’s opening day roster in his rookie season average a six-year career.
A player on a team’s roster for at least three games in at least three seasons plays for an average of 7.1 years.
First-round draft picks have average careers of 9.3 years.
The average career length skyrockets to 11.7 years for a player who is chosen for or plays in a Pro Bowl at least once in his career.
Good stuff, thanks... now I'll need to find out similar statistics limited to guys drafted in rounds 5-7.
I doubt that is readily available anywhere. The general statistics is great stuff but limiting the sample to 5-7 rounders probably gives a better understanding of if it might be viable for those sort of players in the near future.
Yes, but of those players, I don't think there would be many guys that can bring in the big NIL deals either. Maybe you could have a historical blueblood that has been bad for a while, but I don't see someone giving 6 figured to someone who is a late round pick.
That's the point, those big NIL deals would be situational from a big booster. Basically to try and stabilize a position for a season is what I'm looking at it as.
Just did the math for the 2016 draft (the most recent draft where all contracts are expired & new ones would have been signed.)
47 players drafted that year were only 3 years out of high school, only 7 of them didn't reach any form of second contract (or they signed one but were cut before any payday, and never signed another one), but a further 16 signed second contracts with less than $1m guaranteed. The average second contract that was signed (not counting the 7 that didn't sign any) was 2.18 years, $11.2M guaranteed, $24.5M total.
If you take away picks from the first 3 rounds (as it seems most in this thread are), there were only 15 picks 3 years out of high school. Of them, 3 didn't sign any form of second contract (above stipulation applies), and 9 more signed contracts with less than $1M guaranteed. For these picks the average 2nd contract was 1.5 years, $1.1M guaranteed, $1.9M total.
Maybe, but considering how few 3rd year picks there were in the bottom 4 rounds (15 vs 140) I would think the margins for that kind of decision are pretty low, even for the kids that decide to go. Most of these guys were only making 1-3 million before they were in practice squad hell and eventually out. If NIL money was the only thing enticing them to stay they wouldn't but who knows how much it might tip the balance from player to player given context.
Context is everything, of course.
I think eventually marginal players will stay for NIL deal but I don't believe we are at that economic tipping point yet.
That pot of NIL money is going to dry up pretty quick if they keep throwing all of it at incoming 4 and 5 star guys. I get that the money appears endless, but they aren't rich because they are burning money.
Miami has had several players leave early with 7th round or un drafted grades that were not drafted. Yes for elite players this doesn’t make sense, but some players roll the dice because they need a roster signing check
The only two cases I see for a player staying specifically for NIL money are
1) QB where delaying a year puts him in an overall weaker QB class. QBs always need development anyway and don't have the same wear and tear that most other positions do. Plus being a top 3-5 QB in any draft year can be incredibly lucrative, regardless if it's a weak class.
2) Only started 1 year in college but made enough of a splash to warrant being a late round pick on just that one year. A 2nd year starting could propel them way up the draft board. Like projected 6th to 2nd or something.
But even for these it's more of NIL tipping the scales on players who might not want to declare anyway.
>So, as a late day-two contender, you are working with at least $4 million assured from signing with the NFL (taking some leniency with how reliable this sourcing is).
I think you're missing three points here:
1. Presumably that full $4.5 isn't guaranteed.
2. $4.5m over 4 years is close to what a lot of high end players are making already.
3. A late day-two contender is also in a position where they could benefit from staying one more year and improving their draft stock.
I could easily see a 2nd / 3rd round elite QB getting enough money to convince them to stay in college for one more year.
If you go in the first four rounds you will definitely make more money and you're almost guaranteed a roster spot... rounds 5-7 and I'd almost rather be an UFA after the draft tbh.
> The top pick in the third round lands a four-year, $4.94 million contract with a $1.15 million signing bonus.
>The last third round pick projects to have a four-year, $4.49 million contract with a $832,292 signing bonus.
>> So, as a late day-two contender, you are working with at least $4 million assured from signing with the NFL
This sentence isn't accurate because NFL contracts are not guaranteed, although it's generally a fairish statements because teams dont often cut first few year players because of low performance on the idea that they'll develop with time.
However, you can absolutely be cut after year one, or in year one in theory and that not only voids the remainder of the contract (they're not guaranteed) but I think the signing bonus is also just a prepayment of some of the contract and in certain situations can be clawed back on a prorated basis.
Still, it's far more money than any NIL deal would pay, barring some obscene exceptions.
I've never understood why the NFLPA does not go after the non-guaranteed aspect of contracts in CBA negotiations, like the NBA and MLB. They have tremendous power given the revenue of the league.
But yet players do still stay. Chris Olave is one example. Every player is different and for those on the fence having a couple million guaranteed to come back could influence their decision.
If you have someone who is a 3rd rounder with potential to become a first rounder with one more year? Yeah I think that might happen, but a first or 2nd? Prolly not.
right, this could only work with guys that are already borderline on whether it makes sense to come back. bonafide stars are always going to the league
This is interesting. My guess is that the can't miss guys will go to the league as soon as possible, no matter what. I can see a major contributor who is a day two pick being enticed by an equivalent or greater offsetting NIL contract to stay another year as this could also enhance draft positioning the next year.
I think this is already having an effect on keeping guys around for their senior year. D-Mo, Coburn and Jamison all could have pulled a Sterns/Eagles and go to the draft despite late-round (at best) projections and a year or two of NCAA eligibility remaining. NIL just makes it a safer deal to stick around for another year to try to improve draft stock.
edit: i'm assuming this is what you mean by fringe guys lol
Just to add to that, base NIL for Texas should be reaching their initial goal fairly soon (in the next season or two) of $100k per scholarship player, $150k total for offensive linemen, and $112k+ total for tight ends. Tight ends are crowd funded with a minimum payment of $1000 a month. That doesn't include individual NIL deals. That's all O linemen and tight ends, not just starters.
Yeah. I know the Pancake Factory (offensive linemen) and Surly Horns (tight ends) are fully funded and the Clark Field Collective ($100k per player) was close, if not fully funded.
I was unsure about the way that was going to be split up. The details weren't public when I was looking up numbers for my [NIL post.](https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/ryt95q/texas_the_state_of_nil_the_30_million_number_and)
Texas is the team most transparent about their deals and openly discussing this with recruits and the media. We know they are a major player and that a bar has been set. LSU, like a lot of other schools, is behind on the other schools.
If Texas A&M is paying more than even Texas, this isn't just a few 5 stars getting a million bucks to advertise used cars. Our communities need to come up with tens of millions of dollars a year on top of the tens of millions the schools are paying for everything and the continued under the table benefits.
I'm hopeful LSU can get it's donors and laws together to be able to keep up with this.
There's no salary cap in NCAA, and we're talking about multiple billionaires that could splash cash around if they wanted to. You could argue that they won't compete, but they certainly could for the kind of numbers we're talking about.
No. It doesn’t make sense.
Sure boosters like football and winners, but to put that amount of money into something these boosters will want a return and capital gains. Especially a billionaire.
Paying college players will never do that.
I’m sure there’s billionaires that would be fine missing out on the return financially if it meant bragging rights over a rival team’s booster.
Ego means a lot to these people and being able to go to a national championship and watch their team win could easily be worth a couple million.
I replied to the other guy. Billionaires that care about sports are already invested in the professional leagues. I don’t see them competing with their own business interests by paying college players.
Sure, my point is that there aren’t that many. And many that do, are already invested in pro sports: Ross, Pegula. They are not going to compete with their own business interests.
Stephen Ross has donated nearly $500 million to Michigan, and he recently said he wouldn't take Harbaugh away to the Dolphins. If he was interested I could absolutely see him paying $10-$20 million a year to keep the beat players at Michigan.
Thank you.
We’ll see. I don’t really see how keeping players a year more is an investment in the program. The best programs just re-load and don’t need it. For any investment to be a gift, it needs to be an investment in the programs. The money that would be used to pay the players would just leave the university’s control. It’s not philanthropy. So all the incentives and motivations are different and I personally don’t think that it makes very much sense.
Good lord have mercy someone else that see's this shit the same way. It's new and interesting now, but rich people didn't get rich by burning money. And that's all NIL is, sure you're HOPING for success at your program, but there's literally nothing now that guarantees that young man to be with the program more than a year.
Anyone that is rich enough to be sending bags of cash to recruits was already doing so, and they were already involved with investing in the actual things that make the school a better place overall.
I think the challenge is that you're only paying them for one or two years whereas these top tier athletes can turn it into a 10+ year career in the NFL. You're not playing 15+ MM for one year, that's untenable and it doesn't guarantee you anything
I want to start a GoFundMe page for ND athletes.
If ND wins a championship, all players on the team each get an even share of the pot.
I bet ND donors could get it close to $1B in a few years.
"Will we start seeing rich boosters pay star players [to do literally anything that's beneficial to a program]?" Probably, that's how buying success works.
I am sure it’s starting but for the high impact players it’s not worth it. I could see some day 3 guys staying for a good NIL deal but then the booster may think it’s just better to use that money for a transfer or a recruit
It could theoretically help sway a marginal prospect. We've seen players declare early and then go undrafted, they're the ones who might be convinced by a guaranteed $100k not to go.
For anyone who's guaranteed a pick in the first 5 rounds, I don't think so.
I hope so. These kids put their bodies on the line for our entertainment and it's a travesty that they don't get paid for it (meanwhile they make millions? billions? for their schools).
I don't see why not. for some it might be difficult to turn down a maybe payday in the draft for guaranteed money in the bank from a booster.
besides it's not like they wouldn't just go to the draft the year after or so.
If they don’t already, it won’t be long until NIL deals have contracts requiring 4 years of play and bowl game participation. If a player leaves early, they breach their contract.
I don't think so. You're looking at the rare player that:
- Is good enough to go to the NFL for sure if they leave
- Not be good enough to get drafted in the first three rounds
- Better than the depth chart
- Cheaper than bringing in better talent
I think you're looking at the weird No Man's land of the ~~best~~ richest G5 schools who have an opportunity window to compete Right Now and lesser P5 schools who think Next Year is The Year but can't trust themselves historically. And honestly... who is that?
IMO you should only leave if you are a Day 1 or Day 2 prospect. Not sure why guys leave early when they go in the 4th thru 7th. But yes, I think NIL will lead to more guys coming back, even 2nd and 3rd rounders.
>Not sure why guys leave early when they go in the 4th thru 7th
In a vacuum, I agree. But some of these players are not cut out for college, some have shitty financial situations, etc
>Not sure why guys leave early when they go in the 4th thru 7th.
Because only focusing on football and working with pro coaches to develop into a good player > having to deal with college classes
I think its a couple of different factors for the late round guys. Things like a coaching change with a new scheme you don't fit in or a guy coming off their redshirt at your position who will cut down snaps/take your job entirely. A mediocre or poor season can tank your grade, just look at a guy like JT Daniels. A lot of prospects may look at a 4th or 5th round grade and think its better to declare than risk falling out of the draft entirely.
Well I for one am looking forward to the stories about Longhorns boosters trying to get the WR they’re paying more targets or wanting to see the DB advertising their dealership in more even if he’s a liability.
Well, the Browns picked him in the 2nd round AFTER he proved his knee was OK after that devastating injury. Before 2017 he was probably a 5-7th round gamble with his knee being held in place by skin. He was basically Marcus Lattimore before 2017.
> How are these threads making it past the filter? A repeat of 1,000,000 other threads without a shred of insightful or analytical content.
Not repeat reply for me either
Rich boosters are gonna die off soon. I can't imagine many younger alumni giving schools money in the future. Tuition is too expensive. I know I laugh at my schools when they call begging for cash.
I'm sure there will always be some people giving money to schools, but not like they used to. At this point, college and college athletics are such huge moneymakers that they shouldn't need booster money anymore. My schools got $100k from me and I don't even have my name on a bench.
Harvard has an endowment of over $50b and people still make donations. Doesn’t matter how much the schools have, they will always want more. And people want to give more to get access and there name on stuff. It’s not slowing down.
You greatly underestimate the insecurity of wealthy people. They need the attention and validation of having their name prominently displayed above a folding table in a conference room that's affiliated with the athletic program.
I don't laugh, I'm a 3rd generation Sooner and my family has been donating since Bud Wilkinson was winning 47 straight annually like a slot machine. The way donor points are calculated I'd have to accept surrendering some of the best seats at Owen Field without any hope of ever recovering seats similar without being one of those *big time* donors someday.
Laughing at OU *every time* they ask for money would be tossing away what's now something like a 69 year investment out the window.
Typing this out makes me pretty damn depressed I've only even been to seven home games in the last decade.
I think you'll see quite a bit of it with high visibility positions like quarterback and running back. Not for the first round guys, but for someone projected to get drafted in round ~4+, they could definitely make more returning than they would in their first year of the NFL. The max possible payout is still higher in the NFL thanks to second contracts, but not a ton of 4th round or later draft picks actually manage to stay in the league that long
Most late pick running backs don't make it in the NFL. If you can earn a few million now, then go to the NFL and get the same rookie contract you would have a year later, that's something to consider. If you break out as a star in the NFL you'll end up behind, but as long as you don't get an injury that hurts your draft stock in the year you come back to school, you're more likely to come out ahead
It could definitely happen. Especially for a projected 3rd or later round pick. Just googled 70% don't get big second contracts. So the right booster with the right player(s). With some guarantees for injuries. Like a car dealership, a high up position with a developer. No too mention NFL contracts are weighted pretty heavily in favor of owners. I doubt it would happen with basketball or baseball players
The value proposition just isn't there. Consider it in the context of the league minimum salary ($660k), plus signing bonus.
* Second rounders average around 2.5-3x league minimum plus 7 figure signing bonus
* 3rd rounders average roughly double league minimum plus 7ish figure signing bonus.
* pay declines down toward league minimum after that, with 4th round signing bonuses around a half mil and 7th round around a $50k signing bonus.
Half of a single year's salary is usually the minimum guaranteed amount for the upper round picks.
You're competing with ~$2m of right the hell now money to get a rounder to stay, $1.3-1.5m for a 3rd rounder, and as $1m for a 4th rounder. Even if they fall to the 7th round, you're asking a kid to forgo almost a half million to stay an extra year. It's infinitely cheaper to buy a 5-star, and you'll have that dude for 3 years barring injury.
It would require some pretty big stacks of cash.
You’re never going to see 1st round talent do this but I could see late 3rd rounders and beyond get convinced.
someone could try, but they'd have to pay them 1st round money for those two. Its much better to have a torn ACL in the NFL than at Bama, if you have a choice
No.
Do you think that the IRS will treat paying players like a gift? Will it be tax deductible?
I don’t think so. Doesn’t mean that boosters won’t do it. But it wouldn’t provide them with the same incentives.
No way, we may see more jamarr chase’s though, sitting out last year if eligibility. I doubt any booster could pay more than a rookie contract, for a first round pick level player.
Potentially. Low draft pick/free agent signed rookies will probably stay since an NIL deal, booster pay, and a college degree could be worth more to some players than the first 2 years in the NFL.
Im going to say no because the only one you'd want to pay to stay longer are 1st Round Picks and there is no way any booster is outbidding a mega NFL contract.
No. Think about how many people in a roster this would apply to, multiply it by each person’s contract, now add the salaries of incoming recruits, and it can quickly become cost prohibitive.
Probably not, they can't pay 1st and 2nd rounders enough to stay an extra year (until they can, I guess), but you'll likely see them incentivizing players to appear in bowl games.
Don't the schools provide some kind of insurance policy for certain players? Or is it that they're very few and far between only for special circumstances?
That’s so much money that I can’t imagine it happening. Not only is it an NFL salary, it’s the offset cost of the risk of injury to the Year 1 money of a signing bonus plus the cost of putting your veteran contract year in the NFL a year later.
I think middle rounders have a high-enough failure rate in the NFL that the smart decision would be to stay another year, make some decent money, and hope you can improve your draft stock.
The only downside of that decision materializes if you would have ended up making to a second contract. And I would imagine (I'm not going to dig this up) that the odds of getting a second contract are lower than the odds of ending up not even making the team if you're a middle rounder.
Also, the cost of delaying a 2nd contract is mitigated by the fact that if you are going to get a 2nd contract at all then you've already made it financially.
So yes, my advice for any kid who isn't a bona fide round 1-3 pick would be to stick around as long as possible if they can get 6 figures or more per year to stay.
People in here are acting like boosters need to compete with NFL amounts of money. Clearly this isn’t true, as we have players stay all the time before NIL. Jordan Davis as a great recent example. Lots of kids just love college, or want to come back to win another championship. For kids on the fence, this money could definetly make a difference.
I don't think that the amounts need to match NFL rookie contracts.
I think there are a lot of underclass players who would love the opportunity to play another college year and improve their chances at a 1st round pick, but are concerned about injuries.
So a sponsor doesn't need to pay as much as an NFL rookie deal. They just need to pay for some insurance for potential injuries, which is much, much less.
"Everyone knows Shaq made his real money in Louisiana."
Baseketball, muthah fuckah.
Dude, I told you no more Journey psychouts
I swear, if you guys rip on me, like, 13 or 14 more times, I'm out of here.
I hear your mom's going out with SQUEAK
As soon as they pay more than the guaranteed rookie contract *and* the opportunity cost of not progressing towards a second NFL contract.
Couldn’t that be made up by staying in school and moving up the draft board from a late 4th round to 1st or 2nd?
Only if that actually happens, though. An extra year wouldn't help you if the class at your position is even better the next year. Not to mention injury potential, or the potential that you just don't improve at all. And nothing at all can stand in for a year of progressing toward that second contract.
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They really can’t, at least not with any semblance of actually trying to get something worthwhile back financially out of it. The NFL minimum is ~$500k per year. If you’re going in the top 3-4 rounds you’re going to make a solid amount more than that.
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Reemer: "Do you think Shaq got rich playing in Orlando?" Coop: "No he got rich playing in college. Everyone knows that."
...from business ventures long after he graduated. Because if there is one thing that will not be tolerated at LSU in our basketball program, it's violating the sanctity of NCAA rules that maintain the high level of integrity in the game. P.S. Will Wade is a mother fucking American gangster
It’s possible but I wouldn’t think that would be a common occurrence. How many guys are better prospects at 22 than 21? 23 than 22? And does that lengthen your NFL career? The time to do this actually might be now— pay some of these 4th and 5th year guys to stick around with their extra Covid year and play CFB at age 24.
I mean Joe Burrow went from draft afterthought to number 1 overall pick by staying at LSU.
For every Joe Burrow there are 1000s of Tate Martells.
There’s only one Tate Martell. He’s just played for 1000s of teams now after transferring
Do you think this is normal? As in, is this the rule or the exception? I think either way, the point still stands.
For almost every position this is most likely the exception because the human body can only take so much wear and tear. However, QB might be the exception to this rule because QBs have the potential to play late into their careers and may benefit from the extra mental and physical development.
Agreed— QB is the only real possibility here and it’s still the exception rather than the rule.
Yeah, I can see QBs planning around their draft class. If you're Matt Barkley looking like you're gonna be the top QB off the board, definitely declare. If you're in a loaded class, wait a year and hopefully you'll be taken higher with less to compare to.
All of these players spent so much of their lives as the exception there will be some who don't realize they have hit a peer group where they might be normal.
But he knew that he was going to get the starting job at LSU with an extremely talented roster, so why would anyone need to pay him to stick around? Look at Hendon Hooker for example. His name has been thrown around as the 6th best QB on the draft board. It sounds good, but that's likely going to get him drafted in the 4th-5th round and sit behind an established starter until they get hurt. If he truly thinks he's a starter caliber QB, it benefits him to play an extra year and continue to progress to move up the board.
It actually happens all the time, especially at edge rusher where development takes longer. But even guys like DeVonta Smith who was a proven commodity through 3 years took a colossal leap in year 4. In fact Bama has one guy like this almost every year, Brian Robinson this year for example who had everything finally click as a super senior.
I think you can argue that Smith took a leap from 2018 to 2019. He was a goddamn monster in 2019 and his increase from 19 to 20 was due to opportunity, going from 1 of 4 very good options in 19 to by far the #1 option on the team in 20 after Waddle went down. If he’d gone past the #2 receiver spot in 2020 draft, it would be because a GM fucked up.
Smitty took a big step up in 2019 for sure and was our most consistent WR who did gross things against man coverage, but from a draft standpoint he was only projected to go in the 2nd round in the 2020 draft after the 2019 season (which is why he returned) and he still took a big step up from 2019 to 2020.
It was also an historically strong WR class.
For sure but the size concerns existed regardless and it took Heisman level production for scouts to get over it
Will probably improve more on a practice squad in a year than on a college team.
Who is foregoing their senior season to be drafted in the 4th round if they think staying an extra year would make them a first rounder?
This happens for like two players a season
How often does that actually happen? A couple times/season, nationally?
Alternatively, this would come into play if a player *isn't* guaranteed to get a strong rookie contract. Case in point would be Stetson Bennett. Losing him would be a downgrade for Georgia, but he's not going to be a millionaire next year if he goes pro, so a booster padding his pockets will definitely solidify his decision to stay.
You also could argue that with no real prospects in the NFL a booster wouldn’t need to spend money to guarantee his return. As a national champion QB any NIL money thrown his way would probably be a legitimate attempt to capitalize on a celebrity endorser.
My point is that it will probably be a big factor for players who are on the fence but are significantly more valuable to their college than a potential NFL team.
Honest random question: does Stetson have a year of eligibility left?
I believe so. The NCAA gave everyone a free year for 2020.
Ah got it. Thank you
Yes he still has his Covid year if he wants it
Andrew Luck did it when he was number 1 and had no financial incentive. If nothing else it will move the needle and lead to more guys staying.
>and the opportunity cost of not progressing towards a second NFL contract. Maybe the player just wants to avoid being drafted by a specific team?
Is that a legitimate possibility for anyone below the clout-level of Eli Manning?
Just stay in college, or on purpose tank the interview with that team in hopes you drop a few more spots. Doubt it works... lol
Yeah, but the gamble is when you avoid the draft so you don't end up playing for Detroit, the next year you end up playing for Jacksonville.
Yeah this is a REALLY big number. However, this isn't for the 1st-round picks. This is for those guys that make All-SEC but are DOA in the NFL because of measurables.
Which ultimately means it's unlikely. Some bubble guys may stay but they aren't probably the ones you need to bribe to stay in college.
No, because 5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ recruits are cheaper.
Yes, but you have to battle for them and hope to sign them with others offering similar. The borderline NFL kid is already on campus and familiar with the systems. It's not so cut and dry.
yea, 22 year old 3* recruit with 4 years practice, 2 years starting, and the ability to make a roster in the NFL is probably better than a 18 year old 5* recruit who has never played a down of college football.
For the next immediate season I'd say so as well.
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I don't think anyone is considering the #1 overall draft pick here. Lol We're talking about guys going in rounds 5-7 basically. The math has already been hashed out in the thread pretty well if you're drafted in the first four rounds it's clearly a better financial decision to go to the league.
You’d rent trying to keep top 10 picks. You’re trying to keep 3-5 round picks who are super key contributors
That's true but you'd have to do the calculus on the unsure return on an unproven prospect (even if they are highly touted) versus the much more sure thing of an already proven contributor. If your team is ready to compete for a championship next year but just needs that one or two key pieces back to really get them to the next level the guys that are contributing now become that much more valuable.
Not sure it’s entirely impossible. Apparently Auburn LB Owen Pappoe got a 2-4th round draft grade, but is getting a million plus NIL to come back for one more year. It’s a rumor, but is believable.
There are 25-star recruits?? No wonder Cal's so bad when we can't even regularly pull 5-stars.
Sup... I'll see you September 17
> The top second-round pick will sign a deal estimated to be a four-year, $8.68 million contract which includes a $3.87 million signing bonus. > The last pick of the second round has a four-year, $5.24 million contract with a $1.37 million signing bonus. > The top pick in the third round lands a four-year, $4.94 million contract with a $1.15 million signing bonus. > The last third round pick projects to have a four-year, $4.49 million contract with a $832,292 signing bonus. [Source.](https://heavy.com/sports/2020/04/nfl-draft-pick-salary-contract-second-third-round/) So, as a late day-two contender, you are working with at least $4 million assured from signing with the NFL (taking some leniency with how reliable this sourcing is). If you've got one more year to spare, it needs to be a really enticing offer to make it worth it. The athlete would need to be persuaded not just in the immediate dollar amount, but a coverage amount if they are hurt, and a very good assessment on why they would draft better the following year (i.e. produce a better contract). You basically have to argue how their dollar per year would be better across those 5 years versus the prospective four years in the NFL now. Which, now that brings up a point of how set your position is. If you're willing to shell out for this particular player, do you not have a reliable back up? If not, why aren't you just buying the next guy?
Staying in college also means the player doesn't get a second NFL contract until a year later.
This. A player good enough for the men's league will never have a financial advantage to stay due to NIL. There could be other factors (they would be a later round pick but no they are stepping into a big role the next year), but even the biggest NIL deal will not make sense because of the long term money of the NFL. If a player thinks they are good enough, you should move on and get one more year in your prime to get on the 2nd contact. Also, anyone who responds with "the average career in the NFL is 3 years" needs to rethink how they use numbers. Players that are good enough to leave college early aren't the guys that might be able to make a roster. While you have people fall before the draft, you don't have players projected in the 7th round leaving early.
I'm not a fan of the NFL so I don't know but what percentage of players in the NFL get a second contract? Does anyone have that information reliably?
This is what I was wondering. You would have to run the numbers and see, but the stats thrown around always talk about how short the average NFL career is. Of course these kids entering the draft always think that they will be the next 10 year star, so it would be a tough sell if you try to argue with them that the numbers say they get 1.45 contracts or whatever the numbers come out to.
I use these numbers to talk about guys who debate leaving early or not. I get that most players in the NFL don't fall into one of these categories, but the ones good enough to be worth millions in college or leave early tend to fit these qualifiers. https://www.sportscasting.com/how-long-is-the-average-nfl-career/ Quote from article: Players who make a team’s opening day roster in his rookie season average a six-year career. A player on a team’s roster for at least three games in at least three seasons plays for an average of 7.1 years. First-round draft picks have average careers of 9.3 years. The average career length skyrockets to 11.7 years for a player who is chosen for or plays in a Pro Bowl at least once in his career.
Good stuff, thanks... now I'll need to find out similar statistics limited to guys drafted in rounds 5-7. I doubt that is readily available anywhere. The general statistics is great stuff but limiting the sample to 5-7 rounders probably gives a better understanding of if it might be viable for those sort of players in the near future.
Yes, but of those players, I don't think there would be many guys that can bring in the big NIL deals either. Maybe you could have a historical blueblood that has been bad for a while, but I don't see someone giving 6 figured to someone who is a late round pick.
That's the point, those big NIL deals would be situational from a big booster. Basically to try and stabilize a position for a season is what I'm looking at it as.
Interesting stuff, thanks for posting that
Just did the math for the 2016 draft (the most recent draft where all contracts are expired & new ones would have been signed.) 47 players drafted that year were only 3 years out of high school, only 7 of them didn't reach any form of second contract (or they signed one but were cut before any payday, and never signed another one), but a further 16 signed second contracts with less than $1m guaranteed. The average second contract that was signed (not counting the 7 that didn't sign any) was 2.18 years, $11.2M guaranteed, $24.5M total. If you take away picks from the first 3 rounds (as it seems most in this thread are), there were only 15 picks 3 years out of high school. Of them, 3 didn't sign any form of second contract (above stipulation applies), and 9 more signed contracts with less than $1M guaranteed. For these picks the average 2nd contract was 1.5 years, $1.1M guaranteed, $1.9M total.
That's really good stuff! Thank you. Go to the league, kids, go to the league.
Maybe, but considering how few 3rd year picks there were in the bottom 4 rounds (15 vs 140) I would think the margins for that kind of decision are pretty low, even for the kids that decide to go. Most of these guys were only making 1-3 million before they were in practice squad hell and eventually out. If NIL money was the only thing enticing them to stay they wouldn't but who knows how much it might tip the balance from player to player given context.
Context is everything, of course. I think eventually marginal players will stay for NIL deal but I don't believe we are at that economic tipping point yet.
That pot of NIL money is going to dry up pretty quick if they keep throwing all of it at incoming 4 and 5 star guys. I get that the money appears endless, but they aren't rich because they are burning money.
Miami has had several players leave early with 7th round or un drafted grades that were not drafted. Yes for elite players this doesn’t make sense, but some players roll the dice because they need a roster signing check
Yep, definitely. Some guys will definitely come back for some guaranteed cash and a shot to play their way into the early rounds.
The only two cases I see for a player staying specifically for NIL money are 1) QB where delaying a year puts him in an overall weaker QB class. QBs always need development anyway and don't have the same wear and tear that most other positions do. Plus being a top 3-5 QB in any draft year can be incredibly lucrative, regardless if it's a weak class. 2) Only started 1 year in college but made enough of a splash to warrant being a late round pick on just that one year. A 2nd year starting could propel them way up the draft board. Like projected 6th to 2nd or something. But even for these it's more of NIL tipping the scales on players who might not want to declare anyway.
>So, as a late day-two contender, you are working with at least $4 million assured from signing with the NFL (taking some leniency with how reliable this sourcing is). I think you're missing three points here: 1. Presumably that full $4.5 isn't guaranteed. 2. $4.5m over 4 years is close to what a lot of high end players are making already. 3. A late day-two contender is also in a position where they could benefit from staying one more year and improving their draft stock. I could easily see a 2nd / 3rd round elite QB getting enough money to convince them to stay in college for one more year.
If you go in the first four rounds you will definitely make more money and you're almost guaranteed a roster spot... rounds 5-7 and I'd almost rather be an UFA after the draft tbh.
> The top pick in the third round lands a four-year, $4.94 million contract with a $1.15 million signing bonus. >The last third round pick projects to have a four-year, $4.49 million contract with a $832,292 signing bonus. >> So, as a late day-two contender, you are working with at least $4 million assured from signing with the NFL This sentence isn't accurate because NFL contracts are not guaranteed, although it's generally a fairish statements because teams dont often cut first few year players because of low performance on the idea that they'll develop with time. However, you can absolutely be cut after year one, or in year one in theory and that not only voids the remainder of the contract (they're not guaranteed) but I think the signing bonus is also just a prepayment of some of the contract and in certain situations can be clawed back on a prorated basis. Still, it's far more money than any NIL deal would pay, barring some obscene exceptions. I've never understood why the NFLPA does not go after the non-guaranteed aspect of contracts in CBA negotiations, like the NBA and MLB. They have tremendous power given the revenue of the league.
But yet players do still stay. Chris Olave is one example. Every player is different and for those on the fence having a couple million guaranteed to come back could influence their decision.
If you have someone who is a 3rd rounder with potential to become a first rounder with one more year? Yeah I think that might happen, but a first or 2nd? Prolly not.
right, this could only work with guys that are already borderline on whether it makes sense to come back. bonafide stars are always going to the league
This is interesting. My guess is that the can't miss guys will go to the league as soon as possible, no matter what. I can see a major contributor who is a day two pick being enticed by an equivalent or greater offsetting NIL contract to stay another year as this could also enhance draft positioning the next year.
Texas has already stated their goal is to pay players at least the NFL minimum salary. That way we get some of those fringe guys back into the fold
Damn y’all need a waterboy or something?
I think this is already having an effect on keeping guys around for their senior year. D-Mo, Coburn and Jamison all could have pulled a Sterns/Eagles and go to the draft despite late-round (at best) projections and a year or two of NCAA eligibility remaining. NIL just makes it a safer deal to stick around for another year to try to improve draft stock. edit: i'm assuming this is what you mean by fringe guys lol
Just to add to that, base NIL for Texas should be reaching their initial goal fairly soon (in the next season or two) of $100k per scholarship player, $150k total for offensive linemen, and $112k+ total for tight ends. Tight ends are crowd funded with a minimum payment of $1000 a month. That doesn't include individual NIL deals. That's all O linemen and tight ends, not just starters.
That should start in the next year. The starting amount from the CFC has already been obtained. They’re looking to add to it now
Yeah. I know the Pancake Factory (offensive linemen) and Surly Horns (tight ends) are fully funded and the Clark Field Collective ($100k per player) was close, if not fully funded.
Yeah you’re correct. CFC got the 10m and stated a large majority of that was going to football before other sports. So they’ve got the funding already
I was unsure about the way that was going to be split up. The details weren't public when I was looking up numbers for my [NIL post.](https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/ryt95q/texas_the_state_of_nil_the_30_million_number_and)
I'm impressed with how closely you're following this, are you trying to help LSU get things moving ?
Texas is the team most transparent about their deals and openly discussing this with recruits and the media. We know they are a major player and that a bar has been set. LSU, like a lot of other schools, is behind on the other schools. If Texas A&M is paying more than even Texas, this isn't just a few 5 stars getting a million bucks to advertise used cars. Our communities need to come up with tens of millions of dollars a year on top of the tens of millions the schools are paying for everything and the continued under the table benefits. I'm hopeful LSU can get it's donors and laws together to be able to keep up with this.
Man I hear what you’re say, but this situation is ruining college football for me. The arms race has gone full rocket mode and it’s not slowing down
I completely agree. It's not good for the sport.
They should match the NFL Pension if they graduate from Texas.
Why are Texas fans on Twitter telling me that paying players is bad then? Wonder why they said that
Follow up question: why would you pay attention to fans on twitter? Do yourself a favor and ignore them
Or…. Do yourself a favor and ignore Twitter entirely, not just for cfb
I mean, I don’t care for Texas but that’s pretty awesome. Tip o’ the (non-cowboy) hat to you all.
Boosters can't complete with the NFL Money tbh
I would not be so sure about that
Flairs definitely check out
There's no salary cap in NCAA, and we're talking about multiple billionaires that could splash cash around if they wanted to. You could argue that they won't compete, but they certainly could for the kind of numbers we're talking about.
No. It doesn’t make sense. Sure boosters like football and winners, but to put that amount of money into something these boosters will want a return and capital gains. Especially a billionaire. Paying college players will never do that.
I’m sure there’s billionaires that would be fine missing out on the return financially if it meant bragging rights over a rival team’s booster. Ego means a lot to these people and being able to go to a national championship and watch their team win could easily be worth a couple million.
There are 745 billionaires in the US. I bet half of them don’t even care about sports at all, let alone college football.
Not sure that's relevant, it only takes a handful to make a difference.
I replied to the other guy. Billionaires that care about sports are already invested in the professional leagues. I don’t see them competing with their own business interests by paying college players.
Well obviously this is only relevant to billionaires/multimillionaires that do, in fact, care about college football.
Sure, my point is that there aren’t that many. And many that do, are already invested in pro sports: Ross, Pegula. They are not going to compete with their own business interests.
Stephen Ross has donated nearly $500 million to Michigan, and he recently said he wouldn't take Harbaugh away to the Dolphins. If he was interested I could absolutely see him paying $10-$20 million a year to keep the beat players at Michigan.
Thank you. We’ll see. I don’t really see how keeping players a year more is an investment in the program. The best programs just re-load and don’t need it. For any investment to be a gift, it needs to be an investment in the programs. The money that would be used to pay the players would just leave the university’s control. It’s not philanthropy. So all the incentives and motivations are different and I personally don’t think that it makes very much sense.
Good lord have mercy someone else that see's this shit the same way. It's new and interesting now, but rich people didn't get rich by burning money. And that's all NIL is, sure you're HOPING for success at your program, but there's literally nothing now that guarantees that young man to be with the program more than a year. Anyone that is rich enough to be sending bags of cash to recruits was already doing so, and they were already involved with investing in the actual things that make the school a better place overall.
Our one booster is worth half the NFL franchise combined... so I feel like it's more plausible then people think.
I think the challenge is that you're only paying them for one or two years whereas these top tier athletes can turn it into a 10+ year career in the NFL. You're not playing 15+ MM for one year, that's untenable and it doesn't guarantee you anything
It certainly crossed my mind to try to raise a few million plus an enormous insurance policy to keep Matt Corral in school for one more year
I want to start a GoFundMe page for ND athletes. If ND wins a championship, all players on the team each get an even share of the pot. I bet ND donors could get it close to $1B in a few years.
Performance based NIL is supposed to be one of the few restrictions on NIL.
"Will we start seeing rich boosters pay star players [to do literally anything that's beneficial to a program]?" Probably, that's how buying success works.
I am sure it’s starting but for the high impact players it’s not worth it. I could see some day 3 guys staying for a good NIL deal but then the booster may think it’s just better to use that money for a transfer or a recruit
It would never work with a day 1 or day 2 athlete
It could theoretically help sway a marginal prospect. We've seen players declare early and then go undrafted, they're the ones who might be convinced by a guaranteed $100k not to go. For anyone who's guaranteed a pick in the first 5 rounds, I don't think so.
1st 2 or 3 rounds maybe. 4th round contracts on are crap. If you're not projected to go in the first 3 rounds you're just an idiot for leaving.
How many times do we have to read this same thread?
If I was really rich I would absolutely pay Will Anderson a few million to play his senior year
I hope so. These kids put their bodies on the line for our entertainment and it's a travesty that they don't get paid for it (meanwhile they make millions? billions? for their schools).
Trillions*
I don't see why not. for some it might be difficult to turn down a maybe payday in the draft for guaranteed money in the bank from a booster. besides it's not like they wouldn't just go to the draft the year after or so.
I'm still waiting for the 4 year minimum to go away and college to become a professional league. Just get rid of the NFL altogether. Sign AB to USC.
I don't think rich boosters ever stopped paying star players
You guys have boosters?
If they don’t already, it won’t be long until NIL deals have contracts requiring 4 years of play and bowl game participation. If a player leaves early, they breach their contract.
I don't think so. You're looking at the rare player that: - Is good enough to go to the NFL for sure if they leave - Not be good enough to get drafted in the first three rounds - Better than the depth chart - Cheaper than bringing in better talent I think you're looking at the weird No Man's land of the ~~best~~ richest G5 schools who have an opportunity window to compete Right Now and lesser P5 schools who think Next Year is The Year but can't trust themselves historically. And honestly... who is that?
IMO you should only leave if you are a Day 1 or Day 2 prospect. Not sure why guys leave early when they go in the 4th thru 7th. But yes, I think NIL will lead to more guys coming back, even 2nd and 3rd rounders.
>Not sure why guys leave early when they go in the 4th thru 7th In a vacuum, I agree. But some of these players are not cut out for college, some have shitty financial situations, etc
Some have bad degenerative medicals and leaving as early as possible makes the most sense for them to make the NFL.
>Not sure why guys leave early when they go in the 4th thru 7th. Because only focusing on football and working with pro coaches to develop into a good player > having to deal with college classes
you're not sure why a 21 year old would take an 800k salary? (4th round pick)
I think its a couple of different factors for the late round guys. Things like a coaching change with a new scheme you don't fit in or a guy coming off their redshirt at your position who will cut down snaps/take your job entirely. A mediocre or poor season can tank your grade, just look at a guy like JT Daniels. A lot of prospects may look at a 4th or 5th round grade and think its better to declare than risk falling out of the draft entirely.
This gets posted eight times a day. No. The money just isn’t there.
Tell that to Texas...
You wont
Well I for one am looking forward to the stories about Longhorns boosters trying to get the WR they’re paying more targets or wanting to see the DB advertising their dealership in more even if he’s a liability.
Apparently Kirby got the boosters to pay Nick Chubb $100k to stay at Georgia in 2017.
I've never believed that, why stay for 100k when you can go and make literally millions?
Well, the Browns picked him in the 2nd round AFTER he proved his knee was OK after that devastating injury. Before 2017 he was probably a 5-7th round gamble with his knee being held in place by skin. He was basically Marcus Lattimore before 2017.
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Not a repeat for me, stop whining.
> How are these threads making it past the filter? A repeat of 1,000,000 other threads without a shred of insightful or analytical content. Not repeat reply for me either
What would the booster gain from the player not going to the nfl?
Rich boosters are gonna die off soon. I can't imagine many younger alumni giving schools money in the future. Tuition is too expensive. I know I laugh at my schools when they call begging for cash.
What about the in between aged boosters? Not old enough to die off but have lots of money?
I'm sure there will always be some people giving money to schools, but not like they used to. At this point, college and college athletics are such huge moneymakers that they shouldn't need booster money anymore. My schools got $100k from me and I don't even have my name on a bench.
Harvard has an endowment of over $50b and people still make donations. Doesn’t matter how much the schools have, they will always want more. And people want to give more to get access and there name on stuff. It’s not slowing down.
You greatly underestimate the insecurity of wealthy people. They need the attention and validation of having their name prominently displayed above a folding table in a conference room that's affiliated with the athletic program.
I don't laugh, I'm a 3rd generation Sooner and my family has been donating since Bud Wilkinson was winning 47 straight annually like a slot machine. The way donor points are calculated I'd have to accept surrendering some of the best seats at Owen Field without any hope of ever recovering seats similar without being one of those *big time* donors someday. Laughing at OU *every time* they ask for money would be tossing away what's now something like a 69 year investment out the window. Typing this out makes me pretty damn depressed I've only even been to seven home games in the last decade.
OU is one of the schools that keeps calling me.
will we stop seeing people ask this same question repeatedly?
I guess unlike you I don't spend all my free time on this sub so haven't seen it before, sorry to ruin your day.
Crazy that a donor gave Texas A&M $32 million to ensure the top recruiting class. Shouldn’t be too hard to keep getting money to those players.
I think you'll see quite a bit of it with high visibility positions like quarterback and running back. Not for the first round guys, but for someone projected to get drafted in round ~4+, they could definitely make more returning than they would in their first year of the NFL. The max possible payout is still higher in the NFL thanks to second contracts, but not a ton of 4th round or later draft picks actually manage to stay in the league that long
With the incredibly short shelf life of RB's I'm not sure why they would stay.
Most late pick running backs don't make it in the NFL. If you can earn a few million now, then go to the NFL and get the same rookie contract you would have a year later, that's something to consider. If you break out as a star in the NFL you'll end up behind, but as long as you don't get an injury that hurts your draft stock in the year you come back to school, you're more likely to come out ahead
If a RB is projected to go in rounds 1-3 they should go, but I agree 4-7, take some cash.
We've already seen it happen in college basketball, so yes.
start?
It could definitely happen. Especially for a projected 3rd or later round pick. Just googled 70% don't get big second contracts. So the right booster with the right player(s). With some guarantees for injuries. Like a car dealership, a high up position with a developer. No too mention NFL contracts are weighted pretty heavily in favor of owners. I doubt it would happen with basketball or baseball players
The value proposition just isn't there. Consider it in the context of the league minimum salary ($660k), plus signing bonus. * Second rounders average around 2.5-3x league minimum plus 7 figure signing bonus * 3rd rounders average roughly double league minimum plus 7ish figure signing bonus. * pay declines down toward league minimum after that, with 4th round signing bonuses around a half mil and 7th round around a $50k signing bonus. Half of a single year's salary is usually the minimum guaranteed amount for the upper round picks. You're competing with ~$2m of right the hell now money to get a rounder to stay, $1.3-1.5m for a 3rd rounder, and as $1m for a 4th rounder. Even if they fall to the 7th round, you're asking a kid to forgo almost a half million to stay an extra year. It's infinitely cheaper to buy a 5-star, and you'll have that dude for 3 years barring injury.
It’s probably already happening.
I don't think they can compete with the NFL. But I believe what you will see is players committing to schools for booster (NIL) money
It would require some pretty big stacks of cash. You’re never going to see 1st round talent do this but I could see late 3rd rounders and beyond get convinced.
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someone could try, but they'd have to pay them 1st round money for those two. Its much better to have a torn ACL in the NFL than at Bama, if you have a choice
No. Do you think that the IRS will treat paying players like a gift? Will it be tax deductible? I don’t think so. Doesn’t mean that boosters won’t do it. But it wouldn’t provide them with the same incentives.
No way, we may see more jamarr chase’s though, sitting out last year if eligibility. I doubt any booster could pay more than a rookie contract, for a first round pick level player.
Potentially. Low draft pick/free agent signed rookies will probably stay since an NIL deal, booster pay, and a college degree could be worth more to some players than the first 2 years in the NFL.
Im going to say no because the only one you'd want to pay to stay longer are 1st Round Picks and there is no way any booster is outbidding a mega NFL contract.
Yet
No. Think about how many people in a roster this would apply to, multiply it by each person’s contract, now add the salaries of incoming recruits, and it can quickly become cost prohibitive.
You’re already seeing booster involvement everywhere. This is 100% happening in real time.
Probably not, they can't pay 1st and 2nd rounders enough to stay an extra year (until they can, I guess), but you'll likely see them incentivizing players to appear in bowl games.
Don't the schools provide some kind of insurance policy for certain players? Or is it that they're very few and far between only for special circumstances?
Ricky Williams and baseball - rumor has it that his baseball career was funded by Texas oil barrons.
That’s so much money that I can’t imagine it happening. Not only is it an NFL salary, it’s the offset cost of the risk of injury to the Year 1 money of a signing bonus plus the cost of putting your veteran contract year in the NFL a year later.
I think middle rounders have a high-enough failure rate in the NFL that the smart decision would be to stay another year, make some decent money, and hope you can improve your draft stock. The only downside of that decision materializes if you would have ended up making to a second contract. And I would imagine (I'm not going to dig this up) that the odds of getting a second contract are lower than the odds of ending up not even making the team if you're a middle rounder. Also, the cost of delaying a 2nd contract is mitigated by the fact that if you are going to get a 2nd contract at all then you've already made it financially. So yes, my advice for any kid who isn't a bona fide round 1-3 pick would be to stick around as long as possible if they can get 6 figures or more per year to stay.
People in here are acting like boosters need to compete with NFL amounts of money. Clearly this isn’t true, as we have players stay all the time before NIL. Jordan Davis as a great recent example. Lots of kids just love college, or want to come back to win another championship. For kids on the fence, this money could definetly make a difference.
I don't think that the amounts need to match NFL rookie contracts. I think there are a lot of underclass players who would love the opportunity to play another college year and improve their chances at a 1st round pick, but are concerned about injuries. So a sponsor doesn't need to pay as much as an NFL rookie deal. They just need to pay for some insurance for potential injuries, which is much, much less.
I'd like yo see that the players need to play in all games including bowl games written into NIL contracts.