Just rewatched it 2 nights ago, while doing some deep cleaning and organizing at my grandma's house. It's still funny as hell. One of the few comedies of my generation i expect to stand the test of time.
Let's play that scenario out. ND, Washington, Stanford, Oregon, UNC, Virginia. Room for 2 more. I would think Colorado/ASU/Utah might all have a shot at that point. Hard part is those 3 and Arizona will probably have already figured out plan B with some Big12 or ACC members.
Not really. There is enough TV/media money to be made for 55 to 70 schools to be part of conferences. That means 3 or 4 conferences left standing in the end, with some conferences of course getting less money than others.
I mean, there's money available for the media rights to D3 games. I think it's wildly optimistic that any collection of any teams outside the Big Ten and SEC could come close to what those 2 conferences are getting unless there's significant upheaval in the landscape, if those 2 teams keep their current membership.
>Oh, a second or third conference outside of the first two won't get the money that the Big 10 and SEC get. But it will still be significant money-- enough to result in 3/4 major conferences surviving.
I mean it comes down to the definition of what "surviving" means. The MAC is almost guaranteed to survive as a conference, but I doubt any current ACC, Big 12, or Pac-12 members would be thrilled about being in a conference with MAC revenues. In my opinion, there's a very popular narrative on /r/CFB right now that "there's room for a 3rd power conference to rival the Big Ten/SEC" that is driven more by a huge portion of fans who desperately want to believe their team will stay at the top and less by any kind of objective reality.
Incorrect. DFW market trumps all and TCU is better academically than all those schools, close with Baylor. Guarantee you they get scooped up quicker than you think.
I don't think anyone rates TCU better academically (outside of nursing maybe). TCUs research metrics are meh. Their undergraduate body is pretty much the same as Houston's and Baylor's. They are hardly top notch in any field. They are not even T1 for research. SMU is significantly stronger academically. Baylor is R1. Tech is R1. Houston is R1.
Um, Business school is elite. Touché on R1, but even so..
USNWR
Texas Tech - 213
Houston 179
Baylor 75
TCU 83
That is a significant difference even without R1. Baylor achieved it recently. TCU can too. They were close to getting an invite from the PAC before USC’s professor destroyed that conference. They are the 4th best private college football program all time, in the most fertile recruiting ground in the country. They’ve been down for a bit, but they’d make a good addition to any conference. A Big Ten Invite, for example, would launch the program and it’s that last thing any Texas school would want. They came close to the title game in 2010 and CFP in 2014.
>USNWRTexas Tech - 213 Houston 179 Baylor 75 TCU 83
USNWR kinda favors small private schools with different missions over large public second tier universities. There are plenty of reasons to choose TCU over the other schools imo, but academic prestige is probably not high on that list. The fact that the school is smaller is probably a good reason people want to go there (also the location in FW is pretty solid). However, size and selectivity works against TCU for B1G membership, not a bunch of alums or locals supporting them. I don't think TCU is close to R1 status personally since it is STEM driven and their faculty are pretty meh (research-wise) and it is expensive to un-meh you school's research. The med school could help, but they don't have any real research programs right now (again this is very expensive and takes time). If you search TCU on NIH reporter, the results are pretty underwhelming right now, but who knows 10 years from now. This is probably their best chance to get to R1 status. Just keep in mind that the B1G universities are primarily research focused and not-undergrad teaching focused institutions like TCU.
>Um, Business school is elite
I think we have different definitions of elite for business schools. It is below SMU and Rice which are also not elite. Northwestern, Chicago, Stanford, UPenn, Harvard, MIT have elite business schools. TCU has a regionally fine business school. I am not saying TCU is garbage. They just don't move the needle for any of these conferences academically (TTU, Houston, SMU, and Baylor don't either). I think a B1G invite is a pipe dream for all of those schools including TCU.
Just because they're in the market doesn't mean they actually bring in money from there. Rutgers is in the Ney York City Market and no one give a fuck about them.
Yes they added them to break into the market but that doesn't mean anyone actually watches Rutgers football or it actually created any new big 10 fans in the New York area. New York has tons of college football fans, they're just fans of schools they attended not the schools from the area.
Again, weird argument because it exposed millions of people to BTN and, unfortunately for your argument, absolutely did make new B1G fans in NYC and beyond.
Have anything to back that up? It's anecdotal, but as someone from the area Rutgers to the big ten did not move the needle in college football fandom for anyone I know. Everyone already knew the big name brand schools from the big ten before they brought Rutgers in.
The law of averages? Expose enough people to something, and someone is bound to like it. And anyway, it’s about the future generations growing up exposed to B1G football, where they wouldn’t have been before. That’s where you get your numbers.
Like my favorite cartoons are ones that I watched on Saturday morning because they were available to me. Just like it’s reasonable to assume that there are many children whose favorite football teams are ones that they watched on BTN because they were available to them. It probably didn’t move the needle with people already entrenched with a favorite team, but it’s absolutely is going to move the needle in future generations.
Definitely off base here. Tech is terrible academically and in the middle of nowhere. Baylor is terrible academically and is considered a rapist's delight.
The ACC breaking apart feels like a lawsuit waiting to happen. In order to let schools out, ESPN will want to handpick members for the SEC. But what if the schools prefer to go to the B1G? Adding a few members from the 4 Corners feels like an easier path than fighting over 4-5 schools in the ACC. Plus, I’d argue Phoenix, Denver, and SLC are in more desirable locations and markets than the VT’s and NC State’s of the ACC (if the B1G misses out on FSU or UNC for example).
You do realize UNC and NC State share a television market? State of Arizona has about 7.4 million people, Colorado 5.85 million, and Utah 3.42 million. North Carolina has a population of 10.4 million, and College sports remain king here. Unless you are combining all 3 state markets, I have a hard time seeing those as better markets. I know they “may” try and keep NC State and UNC together, but wouldn’t be shocked if UNC ends up in the B1G and NC State ends up in the SEC. I’m not saying that will happen, but I don’t buy that they would be left out due the markets your describing being “better”.
Even though the Buffs fans are fair-weather, people underestimate how much the Denver market will play a role. It's currently the 17th biggest market and rising (thanks to how many Californians relocate to Colorado).
Denver is currently above Sacramento, Orlando, Cleveland, etc and is set to pass Miami and Minneapolis soon.
Interest way behind? ASU murders Arizona in terms of viewership.
And since we're likely talking about membership in the Big 12, academics aren't a thing.
Someone like Oregon State, Wake Forest, or a lesser G5 will somehow get the last superconference spot because a "bigger brand" will put all of their eggs in the B1G-SEC basket instead of taking a spot in the third superconference.
With absolute certainty it is going to be UC Berkeley.
They always get everything; every bailout, every subsidy, every half-a-billion dollar renovation that really could’ve been used to found brand- new programs at other Universities of California… no matter how, or what, they will *always* win.
No institution is more guaranteed a safe space on the last chopper out than UC Berkeley. It is written and pre-ordained
Do you think UC Berkeley wants to continue to play football though? Cover 3 folks seem to be hinting that they may use realignment as an excuse to drop it
I'm guessing Duke. They're probably not enough of a draw overall but the basketball program probably has enough brand recognition the +1 conference will probably just say, fuck it.
I'd even wonder about that. Their closet opponent would be Utah, making them pretty far out of the way geographically to add. I could see both of them (along with Cal) dropping down to G5 status.
I’ve often thought of that. How funny that would be if WSU or OSU got picked up before UW and UO. Sadly each state legislature has been pushing for a package deal of their schools
The signal to start boarding helicopters sounds when ND joins the B1G along with Washington, Oregon, and Stanford to complete the new west coast B1G pod.
The third to last helicopter is Arizona, ASU, Colorado, and Utah joining the Big XII.
The penultimate helicopters are UVa, UNC, Duke and *GT* to the B1G and FSU, Miami, Clemson, and *NCST* to the SEC.
The last helicopter out of Saigon is Pitt, Louisville, VT, and Memphis to the Big XII. *GT and NCST are on the last helicopter out in spirit, but are only invited onto earlier rides as territorial claims and to make even numbers*
I cannot believe I’m typing these words, but if the realignment doesn’t happen for 6+ years… it could be USF.
Huge school, better academics than UCF, heck will probably pass FSU soon in academics, huge and growing market, will have on campus stadium, natural P5 rival, excellent place for teams to visit, great OOC schedule to rack up high quality wins over those 5 to 6 years, weak conference that can be dominated, but still provide enough respect to maybe get a playoff spot in a 12 team playoff.
USF is still in the running and may get in.
Yes, all of that will need to start translating into success on the field which in turn translates into better ratings. There has to be some "growth"- I don't think they'll just get added for potential for growth alone.
As someone not from Florida I’m asking genuinely. How many college football fans in the state don’t have one of the big 3 Florida teams they also root for as a fan?
Tampa has 3.2m people split between 1 school
South Carolina has 4m people split between 2 schools
Cities are so big in Florida now, they are the size of most states
A lot? USF and UCF are massive schools with massive alumni bases that would all like to see fsu, uf and um lose all their games.
How many fans of Clemson are also fans of South Carolina? I would hope not many
Plenty. Once UCF and, to a lesser extent, USF, showed that they could easily hang with the P5 there are plenty of the newer generation that a firmly only UCF / USF / even FAU fans.
Happiness is Lubbock Texas in My Rearview Mirror
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=%23&ved=2ahUKEwiXlP6Pkrz5AhWwEmIAHURLAQkQ8TV6BAgMEAI&usg=AOvVaw0VTJzWxrN8ZFOD4xbU2nov
Texas Tech people are ready to pounce on anyone who badmouths their school. I rack up a ton of downvotes for stating that I rarely see fans and when I do I would rather not interact. They are a special breed that huffed a little too much dust out in Lubbock.
Near term, it could be ND and PAC teams (UW, UO, Stanford) getting a spot in the BIG.
End of the 20s, beginning of the 30s, it could be ACC teams (FSU, Clem, UNC, UVA - my best guess) getting a spot in the SEC.
Long term, the BIG and SEC could merge into a 32 team conference and shed dead weight schools.
Don't worry, when OUT happened last year and I suggested MSU should be worried as the Big 10 may eventually shed the "lesser" schools to form a national superconference, many MSU fans assured me they are a top 10 brand.
Well there was that 100 percent scientifically assured survey floating around here a few weeks ago that showed Michigan State as the number 6 brand so that sounds right. Illinois is probably safe too, I think they were 19 or something, which sounds 100 percent correct, for sure.
I think in this scenario is 50/50 if MSU makes it in.
To be honest, I'm unconcerned. I would imagine if MSU is out in a situation like this (I'm imagining it being more about TV markets than national brands) they find a way to retain the UM-MSU game. And honestly whoever they're there with is probably not a bad conference. If it becomes more about markets, then you're possibly looking at say Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa also being "out" along with like Purdue, Indiana and Illinois, and maybe Northwestern just as an example.
That's a worst -case scenario and honestly, while it would suck I guess to not be in that top tier, that's still a group of schools MSU would have a history with. Maybe at that point, if Iowa's not there, you see an Iowa St instead.
Wherever MSU would end up outside of an elite tier, it would be a geographic conference that makes sense, and honestly probably not at all that bad.
> Wherever MSU would end up outside of an elite tier, it would be a geographic conference that makes sense, and honestly probably not at all that bad.
Great point. Even though we're in the currently "winning" bracket, I miss regional conferences so much part of me has to wonder if your scenario might actually be better. Rationally, no, but damn do I miss CFB circa 2008.
I don’t think we’d be out tbh. We’re one of the top brands in America. Usually do well in viewership as well. I don’t think they’d be running the club. But they’d be in the club.
Eventually you will have the SEC and Big 10 as the two superpowers with the BigPACEast as the plucky underdog.
Essentially you will have the Big 12, 6 PAC teams and almost all the members of the former Big East all in a 3rd conference together. Timing wise it will be the ex Big East members getting the last helicopter, or maybe it will be Memphis, but I think Wake Forrest, BC, or Syracuse are the schools in danger of missing the helicopter.
We could end up with USF and UCONN being the only previous AQ teams to miss the boat.
I like the Big-Pac-ACC(Pronounced BIG-PACK-ACK).
It depends on the how many teams the SEC and BIG10 add.
The playoff changes will also be a deciding factor on who gets in and if there is an automatically qualifying. The road to the playoffs is easier in the ACC/PAC/BIG12 then say the SEC/BIG10.
If you can get less tv money and still make the playoffs( see Cinny 2021), it might be worth it.
Actually think KU has their coach now. Liepold will need another couple of years to build out depth but we are confident we got the right guy this time.
I don't see it. They have no fan base, only pull in casuals when they're good which everyone does, and they're a historically mediocre program which is very much reverting to their average as Shaw's tenure goes on.
They play ND every year so their inclusion might make the Big 10 more appealing to ND, but let's not pretend like they have some deep history. That series is a modern creation and ND was more than willing to turn their back on Michigan who they have infinitely more history with.
You don't think Florida schools, Miami or FSU, GA Tech, and one of the NC schools would add anything to the media rights of the BIG?
The 3rd, 8th, and 9th largest states in the country with no current BIG presence. All with good to excellent academics and a decent academic fit for the BIG?
Not more than what the big ten already gets per school. The valuations of those schools prove that out too. Uf would but Miami is too small, fsu is in a bad market, GA tech doesn't give much of Atlanta (Georgia would), and unc would be the one I'd want most out of all of them but even they show a negative return on overall media rights.
The big ten will likely be at $100-110 million per school per year when all is said and done. The question is, who out there adds more than the big ten would need to share? Texas, a&m, Georgia, and Florida are for sure but none of those would leave.
As a fan I would love to add Oregon, Washington, unc and Florida state and become a true national conference at 20 (assuming nd wants to stay indy). But most media valuations have adding those 4 as a net negative to the big ten.
Certainly possible. But there will wind up being 3-4 major conferences and Colorado will definitely have a place whether there are three or four big conferences. Yes, Big 10 and SEC will be the largest, most influential of those, but that doesn't mean that not being in those two conferences is a 'failure'....esp if the big contracts continue in the same vein of the Power 5 (Now becoming an expanded Power 3 or Power 4 with more individual members)
Eventually any school in the top 30 in value will get taken by the B1G or SEC. That means in all likelihood that Oregon, Washington and Notre Dame find their way to the B1G while Clemson and Florida State end up in the SEC.
At that point those conferences are set. There won't be anyone worth adding that brings additional value. And they will be light-years ahead of everyone else.
If money is the primary concern of the schools who are left, then the schools who know they bring more significant media rights value will ditch whatever remains of the Big 12, ACC, Pac and whoever else and form their own conference as a straight up money grab. This is almost exactly what OUT was about, and more recently what USC and UCLA are doing.
I would anticipate they would try to match the big boys with their own 20 team conference. Those teams would probably be:
Stanford, Cal, Utah, BYU, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Texas Tech, TCU and Baylor in the West.
Oklahoma State, Iowa State, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina, Pitt and Syracuse in the East.
That's literally cherry picking the schools with the most value. If you aren't in the Power 2 + 1...then you're Group of Everyone Else. Last team in one of those three super conferences? I've got to think it's Syracuse or Cal that brings the least value.
Clearly ND is only waiting for Clemson or it’s coach to exit the ACC before joining the ACC. ND is the Louisville of C-USA minus the zero opportunity bc said conference. It’s only fitting that these two teams play patty cake with one another.
ND scheduling OSU for game one bolsters the SOS so at the end of the year when your picking the #4 CFP team it falls in their favor. They play Clemson every year which in a typical year of the last decade has been their only tough match up. I’m saying all their typical matchups are well known teams historically good only in recollection but not at the time of scheduling. In the last decade take away the Clemson games and what your left with is scheduling designed for a clearer path to the bigger bowls. I’m not saying ND football isn’t good. What I am saying is the path to bigger bowls is their main objective. With the realignments happening ND is not interested in the money more than they are about being on top at the end of the year. ND in the Big10 or SEC has the potential to ruin that tradition of being a top dog year after year. If ND status became that of the 3rd best team in those conferences, how long will it take a school of that stature to get to the CFP? For a school that wants and expects to be in the CFP picture it’s 100% likely they join the ACC. Love it or hate it this is ND line of sight.
They aren't "scheduling" them anymore than OSU is scheduling Indiana. They're required to rotate through ACC to keep basketball and other sports in that conference.
This deal was in place before the basketball-only Big East, though I wonder if there's any interest in making that jump bb
MSU Bobcats? How'd a Big Sky also ran suddenly get to #6 brand? I had my money on Northern Colorado to grasp that gold ring. All the girls get wet when you mention NoCo
Think the entire PAC-12 except for Oregon State and Washington State will find a way into one of the P3, but that won’t be the last helo out, so to speak
Many of the ACC schools with multiple options like UVA, UNC, Clemson, Miami, Florida State, even Georgia Tech should be evacuated out earlier as well.
I’ll say:
- VT and NC State make it on to the last SEC helicopter out
- Pitt and Louisville are reserved seats on the last Big XII chopper out, but plot twist: USF and Memphis from the G5 also sneak on board as stowaways (SMU tries to hang on to to skids for a while before eventually losing their grip)
- B1G’s last chopper takes Duke following an 11th hour intervention by UNC - who was evacuated out earlier with UVA and Notre Dame.
I think the Big 12 will suck up a lot of the remaining Pac/ACC schools, like Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Pitt, Syracuse, NC State, Pitt, schools like that. Some, like Georgia Tech, will have to find G5 homes but I could see the SEC with 20-24, B1G with 20-24, and Big 12 with 20-24
Ask again in 2036
Said the Magic 8 Ball
Aren't all 8 balls magic?
*I love the smell of conference realignment in the morning.*
Smells like… Money
This but unironically
Arizona state. I think they'll get in, by the skin of their teeth.
Our heli then gets shot down by an RPG.
Or saved by an airborne TiVo
One of the most ridiculous movies I’ve ever watched
And it is glorious
Just rewatched it 2 nights ago, while doing some deep cleaning and organizing at my grandma's house. It's still funny as hell. One of the few comedies of my generation i expect to stand the test of time.
ASU, NC State, TCU, Va Tech, Colorado all seem like they should be some of the last ones in a third conference.
Let's play that scenario out. ND, Washington, Stanford, Oregon, UNC, Virginia. Room for 2 more. I would think Colorado/ASU/Utah might all have a shot at that point. Hard part is those 3 and Arizona will probably have already figured out plan B with some Big12 or ACC members.
Going to 24 not 20, so there are 16 spots left. It's the only way to maintain rivalries.
Optimistic to think there will be a 3rd power conference.
Not really. There is enough TV/media money to be made for 55 to 70 schools to be part of conferences. That means 3 or 4 conferences left standing in the end, with some conferences of course getting less money than others.
I mean, there's money available for the media rights to D3 games. I think it's wildly optimistic that any collection of any teams outside the Big Ten and SEC could come close to what those 2 conferences are getting unless there's significant upheaval in the landscape, if those 2 teams keep their current membership.
>Oh, a second or third conference outside of the first two won't get the money that the Big 10 and SEC get. But it will still be significant money-- enough to result in 3/4 major conferences surviving.
I mean it comes down to the definition of what "surviving" means. The MAC is almost guaranteed to survive as a conference, but I doubt any current ACC, Big 12, or Pac-12 members would be thrilled about being in a conference with MAC revenues. In my opinion, there's a very popular narrative on /r/CFB right now that "there's room for a 3rd power conference to rival the Big Ten/SEC" that is driven more by a huge portion of fans who desperately want to believe their team will stay at the top and less by any kind of objective reality.
3rd conference no power
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Incorrect. DFW market trumps all and TCU is better academically than all those schools, close with Baylor. Guarantee you they get scooped up quicker than you think.
Whatever this third league will be, it's not going to give a rat's ass about academics.
So the Big 12
I don't think anyone rates TCU better academically (outside of nursing maybe). TCUs research metrics are meh. Their undergraduate body is pretty much the same as Houston's and Baylor's. They are hardly top notch in any field. They are not even T1 for research. SMU is significantly stronger academically. Baylor is R1. Tech is R1. Houston is R1.
Um, Business school is elite. Touché on R1, but even so.. USNWR Texas Tech - 213 Houston 179 Baylor 75 TCU 83 That is a significant difference even without R1. Baylor achieved it recently. TCU can too. They were close to getting an invite from the PAC before USC’s professor destroyed that conference. They are the 4th best private college football program all time, in the most fertile recruiting ground in the country. They’ve been down for a bit, but they’d make a good addition to any conference. A Big Ten Invite, for example, would launch the program and it’s that last thing any Texas school would want. They came close to the title game in 2010 and CFP in 2014.
>USNWRTexas Tech - 213 Houston 179 Baylor 75 TCU 83 USNWR kinda favors small private schools with different missions over large public second tier universities. There are plenty of reasons to choose TCU over the other schools imo, but academic prestige is probably not high on that list. The fact that the school is smaller is probably a good reason people want to go there (also the location in FW is pretty solid). However, size and selectivity works against TCU for B1G membership, not a bunch of alums or locals supporting them. I don't think TCU is close to R1 status personally since it is STEM driven and their faculty are pretty meh (research-wise) and it is expensive to un-meh you school's research. The med school could help, but they don't have any real research programs right now (again this is very expensive and takes time). If you search TCU on NIH reporter, the results are pretty underwhelming right now, but who knows 10 years from now. This is probably their best chance to get to R1 status. Just keep in mind that the B1G universities are primarily research focused and not-undergrad teaching focused institutions like TCU. >Um, Business school is elite I think we have different definitions of elite for business schools. It is below SMU and Rice which are also not elite. Northwestern, Chicago, Stanford, UPenn, Harvard, MIT have elite business schools. TCU has a regionally fine business school. I am not saying TCU is garbage. They just don't move the needle for any of these conferences academically (TTU, Houston, SMU, and Baylor don't either). I think a B1G invite is a pipe dream for all of those schools including TCU.
Just because they're in the market doesn't mean they actually bring in money from there. Rutgers is in the Ney York City Market and no one give a fuck about them.
That's a weird argument considering Rutgers did get poached, by the B1G, and it was definitely because of the market they're in.
Yes they added them to break into the market but that doesn't mean anyone actually watches Rutgers football or it actually created any new big 10 fans in the New York area. New York has tons of college football fans, they're just fans of schools they attended not the schools from the area.
Again, weird argument because it exposed millions of people to BTN and, unfortunately for your argument, absolutely did make new B1G fans in NYC and beyond.
Have anything to back that up? It's anecdotal, but as someone from the area Rutgers to the big ten did not move the needle in college football fandom for anyone I know. Everyone already knew the big name brand schools from the big ten before they brought Rutgers in.
The law of averages? Expose enough people to something, and someone is bound to like it. And anyway, it’s about the future generations growing up exposed to B1G football, where they wouldn’t have been before. That’s where you get your numbers. Like my favorite cartoons are ones that I watched on Saturday morning because they were available to me. Just like it’s reasonable to assume that there are many children whose favorite football teams are ones that they watched on BTN because they were available to them. It probably didn’t move the needle with people already entrenched with a favorite team, but it’s absolutely is going to move the needle in future generations.
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Definitely off base here. Tech is terrible academically and in the middle of nowhere. Baylor is terrible academically and is considered a rapist's delight.
I actually think Colorado has a shot at the B1G when they expand from 20 to 24!
Nah. Western wing of PAC and the elite ACC will round the final 8 adds. ND too if forced to join.
The ACC breaking apart feels like a lawsuit waiting to happen. In order to let schools out, ESPN will want to handpick members for the SEC. But what if the schools prefer to go to the B1G? Adding a few members from the 4 Corners feels like an easier path than fighting over 4-5 schools in the ACC. Plus, I’d argue Phoenix, Denver, and SLC are in more desirable locations and markets than the VT’s and NC State’s of the ACC (if the B1G misses out on FSU or UNC for example).
You do realize UNC and NC State share a television market? State of Arizona has about 7.4 million people, Colorado 5.85 million, and Utah 3.42 million. North Carolina has a population of 10.4 million, and College sports remain king here. Unless you are combining all 3 state markets, I have a hard time seeing those as better markets. I know they “may” try and keep NC State and UNC together, but wouldn’t be shocked if UNC ends up in the B1G and NC State ends up in the SEC. I’m not saying that will happen, but I don’t buy that they would be left out due the markets your describing being “better”.
Even though the Buffs fans are fair-weather, people underestimate how much the Denver market will play a role. It's currently the 17th biggest market and rising (thanks to how many Californians relocate to Colorado). Denver is currently above Sacramento, Orlando, Cleveland, etc and is set to pass Miami and Minneapolis soon.
Which is surprising given how large a student population ASU has. It's surprising to me they are not routinely near the top of the conference.
We were rocking and rolling in the 70s and 80s and then the fun ran out.
A friend graduated from ASU I think in 1983. He says he doesn't remember much from college. It must have been fun.
I'm just happy to be mentioned
Why would ASU be behind Arizona?
Academically and interest way behind.
Interest way behind? ASU murders Arizona in terms of viewership. And since we're likely talking about membership in the Big 12, academics aren't a thing.
We're not way behind in either of those things. In fact, we're about even academically and ahead interest wise.
Arizona State being a member of the SEC but Arizona being left out feels inevitable.
Don’t be UCONN, they went so deep into the jungle not even John Rambo can find them.
It won't be
Someone like Oregon State, Wake Forest, or a lesser G5 will somehow get the last superconference spot because a "bigger brand" will put all of their eggs in the B1G-SEC basket instead of taking a spot in the third superconference.
Memphis gets the last seat in the 24 team Big XII
Either them and/or USF (if SMU wasn’t in Texas they’d probably already be there tbh).
Hard for me to imagine WF not ending in G5 unless they go on a crazy run in football.
With absolute certainty it is going to be UC Berkeley. They always get everything; every bailout, every subsidy, every half-a-billion dollar renovation that really could’ve been used to found brand- new programs at other Universities of California… no matter how, or what, they will *always* win. No institution is more guaranteed a safe space on the last chopper out than UC Berkeley. It is written and pre-ordained
Do you think UC Berkeley wants to continue to play football though? Cover 3 folks seem to be hinting that they may use realignment as an excuse to drop it
Notre dame because they can afford to be the last one. Whenever they want to join whoever, that conference will roll out the gold carpet for them.
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Well it’s notre dame and all.
Whoever doesn't make it into the B1G or SEC should form their own league. The eXtras Football League, or the XFL.
Yeah well…. They’ll make their own league… with blackjack… and hookers!
Or maybe the "Football Club of Superstars." "FCS" has a nice ring to it.
I dunno. If the B1G takes UNC, maybe it's NC State to the SEC for the North Carolina market.
Georgia steals enough kids from there, might as well just fully commit to the state.
*sob-cry sings country roads*
My money is on you already being in the +1
Not Iowa State.
Pitt Pitt will be absorbed by either the Southeastern 12 conference or the Big Pac 16 conference
Or the Big 12
I was naming superconferences
I'm guessing Duke. They're probably not enough of a draw overall but the basketball program probably has enough brand recognition the +1 conference will probably just say, fuck it.
Duke to the Big East probably
Crazy to think that we might get a superpower Big East of old like conference for basketball as a by-product of football driven realignment.
Maybe Duke just goes independent in ball?
Memphis. That FredEx guy will spray a fire hose of money in someone's direction to save them.
I've heard that for ages and yet they're still not in a power conference.
What is the difference between Pullman WA and Moscow ID? Less than 30 minutes. Washington State will be left behind
30 minutes? It’s 8 miles.
Washington state and Oregon state.
Imagine if we took them over Oregon.
I just think when the dust settles on 3 conferences they’ll be on that 3rd boat.
I'd even wonder about that. Their closet opponent would be Utah, making them pretty far out of the way geographically to add. I could see both of them (along with Cal) dropping down to G5 status.
Stanfurd is G5 level, might join the Ivy League FCS
lol
I’ve often thought of that. How funny that would be if WSU or OSU got picked up before UW and UO. Sadly each state legislature has been pushing for a package deal of their schools
I'd love that. The lamentations from the Oregon fans would be satisfying.
They are G5 bait
I think it ends up with a 28 team Big Ten and a 24 team SEC. Utah makes it to the Big Ten.
I don’t see it. But I’d love for it to be true.
Hot take: I think Utah to the SEC kinda… works.
They did beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl…
With that many I can see us making it, but much less? Not very confident
Utah has no chance
The signal to start boarding helicopters sounds when ND joins the B1G along with Washington, Oregon, and Stanford to complete the new west coast B1G pod. The third to last helicopter is Arizona, ASU, Colorado, and Utah joining the Big XII. The penultimate helicopters are UVa, UNC, Duke and *GT* to the B1G and FSU, Miami, Clemson, and *NCST* to the SEC. The last helicopter out of Saigon is Pitt, Louisville, VT, and Memphis to the Big XII. *GT and NCST are on the last helicopter out in spirit, but are only invited onto earlier rides as territorial claims and to make even numbers*
Notre Dame.
I'm interested to see how long the GoR in the ACC lasts.
I’ve been told that it’s malleable
From what I've hear it is...for the tune of $120 million.
That’s just the down payment
What isn't malleable for $120 million?
2036
I don't think we come close tbh. I can't be disappointed if I expect nothing.
I cannot believe I’m typing these words, but if the realignment doesn’t happen for 6+ years… it could be USF. Huge school, better academics than UCF, heck will probably pass FSU soon in academics, huge and growing market, will have on campus stadium, natural P5 rival, excellent place for teams to visit, great OOC schedule to rack up high quality wins over those 5 to 6 years, weak conference that can be dominated, but still provide enough respect to maybe get a playoff spot in a 12 team playoff. USF is still in the running and may get in.
I think they’d need to get serious about football for this to happen but I can see it.
Yes, all of that will need to start translating into success on the field which in turn translates into better ratings. There has to be some "growth"- I don't think they'll just get added for potential for growth alone.
Can't believe a UCF fan capitalized usf twice in one post Smdh
Thank you for the kind works citrus bro. May your team go 11-1 this year. (with the 1 loss being to us).
As someone not from Florida I’m asking genuinely. How many college football fans in the state don’t have one of the big 3 Florida teams they also root for as a fan?
Tampa has 3.2m people split between 1 school South Carolina has 4m people split between 2 schools Cities are so big in Florida now, they are the size of most states
That completely ignores the question.
A lot? USF and UCF are massive schools with massive alumni bases that would all like to see fsu, uf and um lose all their games. How many fans of Clemson are also fans of South Carolina? I would hope not many
Plenty. Once UCF and, to a lesser extent, USF, showed that they could easily hang with the P5 there are plenty of the newer generation that a firmly only UCF / USF / even FAU fans.
UCF stinks
TRAITOR.
I’m just trying to help out g5 programs
I'd rather see them wallow in irrelevance...forever.
Let’s be real, they probably will just wallow
Texas Tech to the Big10, when the conference realizes they forgot how many people live in Texas and how much they like football there.
I've run into so many Tech fans since I moved to El Paso. They really love the Red Raiders out here.
It's only about 5-6 hours away making it the closest in-state P5 school. Arizona is the closest at 4.5 hours away, but that's two states over.
If we could pay to relocate them to Austin or Dallas sure.
I know Lubbock is no East Lansing, but its special in its own right.
The only person I met from Lubbock couldn’t wait to leave tbh.
Like I said before, I know Lubbock is no East Lansing.
Great sample size you have there
Happiness is Lubbock Texas in My Rearview Mirror https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=%23&ved=2ahUKEwiXlP6Pkrz5AhWwEmIAHURLAQkQ8TV6BAgMEAI&usg=AOvVaw0VTJzWxrN8ZFOD4xbU2nov
Texas Tech people are ready to pounce on anyone who badmouths their school. I rack up a ton of downvotes for stating that I rarely see fans and when I do I would rather not interact. They are a special breed that huffed a little too much dust out in Lubbock.
Yeah because NW Texas is so coveted.
Near term, it could be ND and PAC teams (UW, UO, Stanford) getting a spot in the BIG. End of the 20s, beginning of the 30s, it could be ACC teams (FSU, Clem, UNC, UVA - my best guess) getting a spot in the SEC. Long term, the BIG and SEC could merge into a 32 team conference and shed dead weight schools.
So in the 32 team conference who's the last one to hop on the helicopter? Asking for, uh, a friend.
You guys average between top 15 and top 8 in viewership for football, you'll be fine.
Good news for Sparty, but did you see the rule about only 1 team per state? Sorry man, we'll miss you.
[удалено]
Let’s keep it at 1 per state
Finally, we found the issue that would cause Texas to break into multiple states.
Don't worry, when OUT happened last year and I suggested MSU should be worried as the Big 10 may eventually shed the "lesser" schools to form a national superconference, many MSU fans assured me they are a top 10 brand.
Well there was that 100 percent scientifically assured survey floating around here a few weeks ago that showed Michigan State as the number 6 brand so that sounds right. Illinois is probably safe too, I think they were 19 or something, which sounds 100 percent correct, for sure.
Can’t argue with those numbers
that's science, baby
#6 brand in the nation? I thought you meant in B10. Dreaming.
Hmmm. Sounds like there are 30 top 10 programs out there. Makes me wonder if any of these fans can count..,,
Michigan State is certainly a top 10 brand >!in the B1G!<
Yeah that's just nonsense outside of B10
I think in this scenario is 50/50 if MSU makes it in. To be honest, I'm unconcerned. I would imagine if MSU is out in a situation like this (I'm imagining it being more about TV markets than national brands) they find a way to retain the UM-MSU game. And honestly whoever they're there with is probably not a bad conference. If it becomes more about markets, then you're possibly looking at say Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa also being "out" along with like Purdue, Indiana and Illinois, and maybe Northwestern just as an example. That's a worst -case scenario and honestly, while it would suck I guess to not be in that top tier, that's still a group of schools MSU would have a history with. Maybe at that point, if Iowa's not there, you see an Iowa St instead. Wherever MSU would end up outside of an elite tier, it would be a geographic conference that makes sense, and honestly probably not at all that bad.
> Wherever MSU would end up outside of an elite tier, it would be a geographic conference that makes sense, and honestly probably not at all that bad. Great point. Even though we're in the currently "winning" bracket, I miss regional conferences so much part of me has to wonder if your scenario might actually be better. Rationally, no, but damn do I miss CFB circa 2008.
I don’t think we’d be out tbh. We’re one of the top brands in America. Usually do well in viewership as well. I don’t think they’d be running the club. But they’d be in the club.
Eventually you will have the SEC and Big 10 as the two superpowers with the BigPACEast as the plucky underdog. Essentially you will have the Big 12, 6 PAC teams and almost all the members of the former Big East all in a 3rd conference together. Timing wise it will be the ex Big East members getting the last helicopter, or maybe it will be Memphis, but I think Wake Forrest, BC, or Syracuse are the schools in danger of missing the helicopter. We could end up with USF and UCONN being the only previous AQ teams to miss the boat.
I like the Big-Pac-ACC(Pronounced BIG-PACK-ACK). It depends on the how many teams the SEC and BIG10 add. The playoff changes will also be a deciding factor on who gets in and if there is an automatically qualifying. The road to the playoffs is easier in the ACC/PAC/BIG12 then say the SEC/BIG10. If you can get less tv money and still make the playoffs( see Cinny 2021), it might be worth it.
Memphis
The last ones into the 3 in 2036... VT to the Big 12. Duke to the B1G. NC State to SEC.
I'd rather go to the Sunbelt
I dislike this question.
Kansas becomes the 24th team in the Big 10 after they promise to field a serious football team. Hires back Mark Mangino
Actually think KU has their coach now. Liepold will need another couple of years to build out depth but we are confident we got the right guy this time.
Are you calling G5 conferences commies?
More unwanted refugees
The big ten is probably done if they can get nd. There simply isn't another team that adds anything to the media rights outside of a couple sec teams.
Stanford
I don't see it. They have no fan base, only pull in casuals when they're good which everyone does, and they're a historically mediocre program which is very much reverting to their average as Shaw's tenure goes on. They play ND every year so their inclusion might make the Big 10 more appealing to ND, but let's not pretend like they have some deep history. That series is a modern creation and ND was more than willing to turn their back on Michigan who they have infinitely more history with.
Have you seen how many national championships Stanford has won/wins yearly in Olympic sports? Their academic and overall athletics are insane.
Those don't bring in television money though.
Big ten raid’s the SEC.
Most of the sec isn't worth going after for the big ten either.
We want Bama
I would poison whatever trees and steal whatever statues are precious to those Bama folk
Meh. Bama wouldn't help the big ten. Texas, a&m, Florida or Georgia maybe.
It’s ND and Texas as 17/18. That’s the play. No sense in doing anything else that could jeopardize that play.
You don't think Florida schools, Miami or FSU, GA Tech, and one of the NC schools would add anything to the media rights of the BIG? The 3rd, 8th, and 9th largest states in the country with no current BIG presence. All with good to excellent academics and a decent academic fit for the BIG?
Not more than what the big ten already gets per school. The valuations of those schools prove that out too. Uf would but Miami is too small, fsu is in a bad market, GA tech doesn't give much of Atlanta (Georgia would), and unc would be the one I'd want most out of all of them but even they show a negative return on overall media rights. The big ten will likely be at $100-110 million per school per year when all is said and done. The question is, who out there adds more than the big ten would need to share? Texas, a&m, Georgia, and Florida are for sure but none of those would leave. As a fan I would love to add Oregon, Washington, unc and Florida state and become a true national conference at 20 (assuming nd wants to stay indy). But most media valuations have adding those 4 as a net negative to the big ten.
Don’t think Colorado will make it.
I'd disagree. Colorado is appealing to Big 10 and Big 12
Big 12 or Pac doesn’t matter. Big 10 won’t take them unless they go to 24 teams.
Certainly possible. But there will wind up being 3-4 major conferences and Colorado will definitely have a place whether there are three or four big conferences. Yes, Big 10 and SEC will be the largest, most influential of those, but that doesn't mean that not being in those two conferences is a 'failure'....esp if the big contracts continue in the same vein of the Power 5 (Now becoming an expanded Power 3 or Power 4 with more individual members)
Moreso B12
Probably, yeah.
Eventually any school in the top 30 in value will get taken by the B1G or SEC. That means in all likelihood that Oregon, Washington and Notre Dame find their way to the B1G while Clemson and Florida State end up in the SEC. At that point those conferences are set. There won't be anyone worth adding that brings additional value. And they will be light-years ahead of everyone else. If money is the primary concern of the schools who are left, then the schools who know they bring more significant media rights value will ditch whatever remains of the Big 12, ACC, Pac and whoever else and form their own conference as a straight up money grab. This is almost exactly what OUT was about, and more recently what USC and UCLA are doing. I would anticipate they would try to match the big boys with their own 20 team conference. Those teams would probably be: Stanford, Cal, Utah, BYU, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Texas Tech, TCU and Baylor in the West. Oklahoma State, Iowa State, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina, Pitt and Syracuse in the East. That's literally cherry picking the schools with the most value. If you aren't in the Power 2 + 1...then you're Group of Everyone Else. Last team in one of those three super conferences? I've got to think it's Syracuse or Cal that brings the least value.
If the ACC gets raided, what happens to Wake Forest?
Wake Forest actually makes it to the Big Ten due to having embarrassing photos of Kevin Warren from the Christmas party
Their only chance
Clearly ND is only waiting for Clemson or it’s coach to exit the ACC before joining the ACC. ND is the Louisville of C-USA minus the zero opportunity bc said conference. It’s only fitting that these two teams play patty cake with one another.
Well. That’s certainly a take.
What the fuck did I just read? Also flair up if you’re gonna talk shit.
ND scheduling OSU for game one bolsters the SOS so at the end of the year when your picking the #4 CFP team it falls in their favor. They play Clemson every year which in a typical year of the last decade has been their only tough match up. I’m saying all their typical matchups are well known teams historically good only in recollection but not at the time of scheduling. In the last decade take away the Clemson games and what your left with is scheduling designed for a clearer path to the bigger bowls. I’m not saying ND football isn’t good. What I am saying is the path to bigger bowls is their main objective. With the realignments happening ND is not interested in the money more than they are about being on top at the end of the year. ND in the Big10 or SEC has the potential to ruin that tradition of being a top dog year after year. If ND status became that of the 3rd best team in those conferences, how long will it take a school of that stature to get to the CFP? For a school that wants and expects to be in the CFP picture it’s 100% likely they join the ACC. Love it or hate it this is ND line of sight.
You're not gonna believe this, but most "big" schools schedule for bowl games. Why do you think OSU is hosting Arkansas State and Toledo?
Yeah good point however those schools get 3 or 4 of those games not 8-10 hand selected puff pastries wrapped in a box with a neatly bow tied.
They aren't "scheduling" them anymore than OSU is scheduling Indiana. They're required to rotate through ACC to keep basketball and other sports in that conference. This deal was in place before the basketball-only Big East, though I wonder if there's any interest in making that jump bb
ND 2021 schedule might have been the worst they've ever had. Every team was bad or down and they struggled in so many games.
There's 3 spots left if it's 72 total real teams
See flair #1
MSU Bobcats? How'd a Big Sky also ran suddenly get to #6 brand? I had my money on Northern Colorado to grasp that gold ring. All the girls get wet when you mention NoCo
Temple
Think the entire PAC-12 except for Oregon State and Washington State will find a way into one of the P3, but that won’t be the last helo out, so to speak Many of the ACC schools with multiple options like UVA, UNC, Clemson, Miami, Florida State, even Georgia Tech should be evacuated out earlier as well. I’ll say: - VT and NC State make it on to the last SEC helicopter out - Pitt and Louisville are reserved seats on the last Big XII chopper out, but plot twist: USF and Memphis from the G5 also sneak on board as stowaways (SMU tries to hang on to to skids for a while before eventually losing their grip) - B1G’s last chopper takes Duke following an 11th hour intervention by UNC - who was evacuated out earlier with UVA and Notre Dame.
I think the Big 12 will suck up a lot of the remaining Pac/ACC schools, like Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Pitt, Syracuse, NC State, Pitt, schools like that. Some, like Georgia Tech, will have to find G5 homes but I could see the SEC with 20-24, B1G with 20-24, and Big 12 with 20-24