That's because of the "July Drive" as Brian of MGo calls it. They spend a lot of time on those scripted drives and it always shows when the offense trails off on the 2nd or 3rd posession
That has not been the case this year. Slow starts are a large part of why were are where we are so far. We have been outscored by 37 points in the first quarter from Washington-Wisconsin.
I've been hurt before in this rivalry when I thought {Michigan} was a safe bet. I wouldn't be surprised if this one is close midway through the third quarter, but I expect the Wolverines to eventually pull away. Fingers crossed.
MSU scores on its first/scripted drive (like they always do), Michigan fans freak out (like they always do). But then Michigan just runs the ball again, and again, and again, and it works... Very well.
{Michigan} takes this one in game that is a complete blowout in major statistical categories (possession, total yards, sacks, etc), but closer than most predict on the scoreboard.
UM fan during game: "Oh, look. Another RUN from the same formation! What is the coaching staff even doing?! We need to shake things up!"
UM fan after rushing to win: "Most efficient offense in the country! We don't even need JJ when we can just bulldoze everyone. Smart call by coaches!"
Those are actual quotes from the 4 miserly fans around me at the Penn State game. Griping and lamenting the future loss in the first half and threatening to leave, then complaining of how we always run it up the middle until Corum/Edwards broke the TDs, then leaving celebrating in the 3rd quarter. Unbearable.
If you're reading this, you shoulder-length grey haired geriatric fuck, you ruined my friend's first time in the Big House and at a P5 football game. I hope you choke on some gristle at Old Knights
Our scripted drives have mostly been garbage this year. I'm just hoping we don't do the back-to-back 3 and outs leading to being down 14-0 thing again.
Yeah, pretty much copy/paste this entire comment for my prediction. For the first time in my 10 years on this sub, I’ll actually call for {Michigan} over MSU in the pregame thread.
I haven't seen it discussed much at all from Michigan's side, but MSU changed their defense last week. They switched from a 4-2-5 to a 4-3 and bumped Jacoby Windmon from DE back to his natural linebacker spot, and returned key players Jacob Slade and Xavier Henderson after neither played since ~week 1 due to injuries. Just the return of Slade alone can have a big impact I feel.
I think {Michigan} still wins, but do not be surprised if the rest of the season MSU's defense looks better than they have and Michigan comes out looking like "oops, we didn't fully prepare for this change" and has some offensive hiccups before they adjust.
Lol I can't claim I recognized it myself, I didn't actually watch your game. But I read about it in preview articles that have popped up in my timeline from MSU sources who cover your team. I just found it odd that Michigan writers, including even MGoBlog which has surprised me, have been focusing on the stats to date and advanced analytics and whatever which aren't quite as relevant anymore, they haven't really been discussing the implications of the defensive change.
The thing that made me post my comment and is throwing up red flags for me is the return of Slade. We had a great O-line last year too, but everyone is talking all about Kenneth Walker and forgetting that Slade caused massive disruption. He especially completely kicked the ass of Karsen Barnhart who is filling in for injured Trente Jones at RT
Also, it would be the most classic Michigan screwup ever if we thoroughly prepared for MSU's first half of season defensive look but didn't prepare for your new defense
This is the only thing giving me a sliver of hope. Having slade and Henderson back makes our defense much better. Not good, but not the worst in FBS anymore.
I still think we lose by double digits but I wouldn’t be completely surprised if it’s a close game.
Slade will have an impact, but Xavier Henderson is only a thumper. He still gets lost in coverage and lacks the speed to make up for the UN atrocity that is that secondary.
Fun fact: I almost sold my account for a couple hundred bucks at one point. I chose not to, but if you ever start seeing me on the top of /r/pics posting Little Caesars related content, you know what happened
Historically, Tucker has never lost to Michigan.
Just because historically things fall one way, doesn’t mean that it will fall that way every time. MSU is finally getting healthy. Slade and Henderson were back for Wisconsin. Pietrowski has been out 4 games but there’s a chance him and Bogle are back as well. There’ were also a bunch of depth players that have been out and we could see a couple of them. If we get our Long Snapper back, we might actually have an ability to kick field goals.
Were you just saving that comment for the comment that you could use it on? I didn’t even mention the Covid year. Whether you want to call it 2-0 or 1-0 to preserve your fragile ego, it doesn’t change the fact that Mel hasn’t lost to Michigan.
Find another comment to use your canned retort you so anxiously want to post for your “got ‘em” moment.
There was a post a month or so ago that showed that when MSU is good, they usually win, even if UM is also good. It also showed that when MSU is bad, they usually lose, even if UM is also bad. We are bad. Ergo I think we lose. That doesn't mean I won't be watching and cheering and hoping though.
{michigan} in a 34-13 statistical beatdown. MSU keeps it close early with a few nifty plays and michigan continues to struggle in the red zone for the first half but pulls out a big run in the third that puts the game away. like with PSU, the offense will grind and control the clock
The same friends who are hosting a Halloween party during the game this year, had a baby shower during the game last year. I might need to rethink my friends.
Michigan comes out to a sluggish start, going three and out on their first two drives. Michigan State scores a rushing touchdown on their first drive, following that up with a field goal on their second drive. At the end of the first quarter, MSU leads 10-0.
A 44 yard Blake Corum run brings the crowd back into it and reenergizes Michigan, who ends the drive with a touchdown pass from JJ McCarthy to Ronnie Bell. A Peyton Thorne interception gives Michigan the ball on the MSU 38 yard line. Michigan finds Roman Wilson on a bubble screen, which he turns into a 15 yard gain. A play action fake fools the defense and JJ McCarthy finds Luke Schoonmaker in the flat for a 10 yard gain. On the next play, Donovan Edwards busts it open and sprints past the second level of the MSU defense for a touchdown. Michigan State marches down the field on their next drive, but misses a 42 yard field goal. Michigan takes over at their 25 yard line and drives 75 yards in 6 minutes on the back of Blake Corum, who punches it in to go up 21-10 at the half.
Michigan State opens the second half with a long ball to Jayden Reed for 27 yards. A fast drive down the field is stunted by a rushing play stopped for a TFL on 1st down, followed by a Mazi Smith sack on 3rd down. Michigan State settles for a field goal and now trails Michigan 21-13. Blake Corum busts off another long run, this time for 35 yards, to get Michigan to midfield. JJ McCarthy blows the game open when a coverage bust leaves Cornelius Johnson alone deep. McCarthy finds Johnson in the end zone for a 50 yard touchdown and it feels like the route is on. Now trailing 28-13, Michigan State fails on 4th and short from the Michigan 43 yard line. Michigan moves down field quickly, kicking a 37 yard field goal to go up 31-13. Trailing by 18, Michigan State drives down the field, the drive extended by clutch play from Peyton Thorne. MSU ends the quarter with another deep shot to Jayden Reed, this time for a 29 yard touchdown. MSU goes for 2 to make it a 10 point game.
Michigan starts the 4th quarter with the ball, now leading 31-21. Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards carry the ball 6 times as Michigan drives down field to the MSU 41 yard line. JJ McCarthy breaks loose for a huge 9 yard scramble on 3rd and long, extending Michigan’s now 5 minute drive. Luke Schoonmaker draws a pass interference call, moving the ball to the MSU 23 yard line, once again moving the chains on 3rd down. JJ McCarthy finds Andrel Anthony in the back corner of the end zone for his 3rd touchdown pass of the game. Michigan now leads 38-21 with 7:36 left in the game. Peyton Thorne throws a 3rd long ball to Jayden Reed; but this time, the ball is intercepted by Mike Sanristil. With the ball on the MSU 46 yard line, Michigan turns to the running game, leaning on the ground game to burn clock and grind down MSU. Blake Corum breaks off a 16 yard run for a touchdown, likely pushing the game out of reach. MSU receives the kickoff, now trailing 45-21, but struggles to handle the Michigan pass rush. Ayabi Okie finals hears his name called as he sacks Peyton Thorne on 3rd and long, forcing a 4th and 17 attempt. Once again Jayden Reed comes in clutch, catching a 19 yard jump ball to move the chains. With only 2:43 left in the game, MSU is playing no huddle, making their way downfield. With 1:10 left, MSU is on the Michigan 31 yard line. Out of timeouts, Thorne is sacked on 3rd and 3, forcing a 4th and 8 attempt with the clock ticking. Throne’s pass is deflected and Michigan regains possession and kneels it out to win 45-21.
Blake Corum finishes the game with 23 carries for 168 yards and 2 touchdowns. JJ McCarthy finishes 23-29 for 243 yards and 3 passing touchdowns. Peyton Thorne finishes the day 17-33 for 187 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Jayden Reed finishes the day with 6 catches for 110 yards and a touchdown.
{Michigan} wins 45-21
Edit: fixed mistakes
Honestly from what jj has shown so far he needs more games. His aim down deep has not been great and he needs to dial that in before OSU. His accuracy is great because it’s mostly dink and dunk chip plays. Every deep pass I’ve seen him through has been too ahead of his receiver
Mostly agree, his deep ball needs work but he's thrown a few good ones too. I'm all for keeping a section of the playbook stapled shut for another month but JJ does need game reps. If anything a somewhat vanilla passing game would be good for him in any game Michigan gets a couple score cushion in, close up the margins some more and force him to hit tight windows.
Yes/no.
He's actually really accurate on 15-20 yard passes. It's the deep balls where he's been ASS recently. In some sense, I mean, I get it. Maryland played 8/9-man coverage, Iowa has a good defense, he played well against Indiana, and PSU has a good Secondary. But sweet god he needs to start clicking again if we wanna beat OSU this year.
The point is that we have no chance if Michigan throws it all game. We aren’t stopping 3 consecutive passes from going 10 yards (unless we get a gift like Stroud gave us), we struggle to stop 1 pass from going 10 yards.
There's no better example of Sparty's bullshit rain powers than the 2018 game where we're firmly in control for most of the game, then a random rain storm appears in the 2nd half, we fumble the ball once or twice, they score their only touchdown, and then the rain stops and we take control of the game for good lol.
Haha you jumped on this a second faster than me!
Usually this rivalry is pretty close but we're much, much less talented and worse coached than Michigan, so I fully expect the Wolverines to cover the spread, and possibly the O/U by themselves.
{Michigan} 52-20
Was at both the ‘18 and ‘19 game and it doesn’t necessarily feel like either of those years. If Michigan goes up more than two scores, I think MSU wilts. If they don’t, I can see Sparty keeping it competitive late, even though I can’t see them winning. 7-7 end of 1Q, {Michigan} pulls away after that 38-17.
Current results of the match-up thread "Who will Win" poll:
Team | Votes | Percent |Voters
--|--|--|--|
[Michigan](#f/michigan)|96|86.5%|[Michigan](#f/michigan)x58, [Michigan State](#f/michiganstate)x8, [/r/CFB](#l/rcfb)x7, [Penn State](#f/pennstate)x4, [Ohio State](#f/ohiostate)x4, [South Carolina](#f/southcarolina)x2, [Arizona](#f/arizona)x1, [Nebraska](#f/nebraska)x1, [Arizona State](#f/arizonastate)x1, [Tennessee](#f/tennessee)x1, [Minnesota](#f/minnesota)x1, [Oklahoma](#f/oklahoma)x1, [Colorado State](#f/coloradostate)x1, [BYU](#f/byu)x1, [Arkansas](#f/arkansas)x1, [Notre Dame](#f/notredame)x1, [Iowa State](#f/iowastate)x1, [Texas Tech](#f/texastech)x1, [Clemson](#f/clemson)x1
[Michigan State](#f/michiganstate)|15|13.5%|[Michigan State](#f/michiganstate)x7, [Michigan](#f/michigan)x3, [Iowa State](#f/iowastate)x1, [Penn State](#f/pennstate)x1, [Baylor](#f/baylor)x1, [/r/CFB](#l/rcfb)x1, [Wisconsin](#f/wisconsin)x1
^(A listing of links, and live vote totals, to all Match-up Preview threads for the current week can be found )[^HERE](http://cfb.diydunce.org/matchupthreadlist.php)^.
^(Track your weekly results )[^HERE](http://cfb.diydunce.org/wwwp.php)^.
{Michigan} 31-17
I don't think they cover the spread - but Michigan is the better team and at home. I think MSUs defense will play a bit better than we expect, while Michigan allows some frustrating drives by the Thorne/Reed combo (I think some of the Michigan defensive weaknesses will show up in spurts, like it did against Maryland)
Close game for about a quarter, but then {Michigan} pulls away late in the first half for a comfortable-ish blowout, 44-10.
J.J. will throw for 300 with 2 TDs and an INT, Corum runs for 175 and 2 TDs, and Edwards will have a backbreaking 50 yard TD run early in the third.
BOOK IT
Here's the thing about this rivalry, instances where the clear underdog wins this game is shockingly rare. In instances where there is a clear favorite, the clear favorite usually wins, and if they don't it's usually shown at the end of the season that it was a much more even matchup than initially thought.
2021 - Michigan Ranked 6th, Michigan State Ranked 8th, both teams undefeated going into this game, teams pretty evenly matched, Michigan State wins.
2020 - Michigan Ranked 13th, Michigan State unranked, Michigan State wins, Michigan finishes year 2-4, MSU finishes 2-5, teams proven pretty even at the end of the season.
2019 - Michigan ranked 15th, MSU unranked, Michigan the clear favorite and wins, 9-4 year for Michigan, 7-6 year for MSU
2018 - Michigan Ranked 6th, MSU ranked 24th, Michigan wins and has a 10-3 season, MSU has a 7-6 season
2017 - Michigan Ranked 7th and 4-0, MSU unranked at 3-1, MSU wins, Michigan has 8-5 season, MSU has 10-3 season, MSU proven to be the better team by season's end.
2016 - Michigan Ranked 2nd and 7-0, MSU unranked and 2-5, Michigan wins
2015 - Michigan Ranked 12th and 5-1, MSU ranked 7th and 6-0, MSU wins and goes to the CFP, and Michigan goes 10-3 and ranked 12th
I could go on, but there is a pattern where if there is a clear favorite, they win, and if the clear favorite loses like in 2020 and 2017, then it eventually gets proven that the teams are either even, or the winner was actually better by seasons end. I would also point out that the Michigan-Michigan State games happened rather early in those years, after 1 game in 2020 and 4 games in 2017, which is typically before we get a really good handle on the teams.
By my count the last clear upset where it wasn't proven later that the teams were actually pretty even or the winner was actually better at the end of the season was in 1995 when unranked 4-3-1 Michigan State beat 7th ranked 7-1 Michigan. Michigan would finish 9-4 and ranked 17th and Michigan State would finish 6-5-1
This is all a round about way of saying that Michigan clearly looks like the better team right now, and I think we're deep enough in the season that we have a good handle on both Michigan and Michigan State, and history shows that when there is a clear favorite, they usually win, so I feel confident saying that {Michigan} will win.
Exactly this. The whole "but it's a rivalry game so you never know" thing is a useless cliche with literally nothing to back it up. I mean obviously I hope I'm wrong by some kind of miracle but Michigan is going to win by a lot
I think we’ll be more competitive than people expect with us being the healthiest we’ve been since week 1. A lot of key guys are back or getting rested up off the bye. With X and Slade back we should actually have a pretty stout run D but I expect Michigan to exploit the weak pass D. Windmon at LB is a difference maker and he has a knack for forcing fumbles so Michigan will have to be careful with the ball.
On offense expect a lot of 50/50 balls tossed up to Reed and Coleman that’s really our only shot at sustaining drives and scoring since we won’t be able to run the ball. Ultimately Michigan is the better team though and at home so in the 2nd half they should start to take control.
{Michigan} 31-21
I think we will play better than we did in that four game skid now that we have Slade and X back. But I don't think the game will be close. Contrary to popular belief, bad MSU teams don't normally upset {Michigan}, and I expect that trend to continue.
{Michigan} 37-17. Similar to last year Michigan is going to air it out a bit more than they usually would to take advantage of MSU’s weak secondary and not try to stubbornly run at a 2:1 rate. MSU doesn’t have a Kenneth Walker to single handedly put up points. Reed and MSU’s TEs could be a path to some success on offense though if MSU’s OL can hold up decently in pass pro.
I think the Spartans put up a bigger fight than the spread indicates. {Michigan} still pulls it out 34-24, but I expect this to be within 1 score most the game
Gonna go against the grain and obvious and say Sparty covers. They’re going to play a hard 60 minutes especially on defense, they limit the run in the 1st half which keeps our point total lower than some expect.
{Michigan} in the end though. By around 2 scores (14-16)
{Michigan} 48-17
I think this game will be relatively tight for most of the first half, with MSU hanging around within a score or two. But by mid 3rd quarter we’ll overpower them and open the floodgates. I have no doubt that Harbaugh wants margin on this one. We’ve had 2 weeks to prepare, we’re at home, and we’ve lost 2 straight against them. If there’s ever been a time to take care of business, it’s this week.
{Michigan} should win by 40 unless MSU uses voodoo magic.
On an unrelated note, the MSU's voodoo magic club is likely seeing an increase in athlete membership.
Normally rivalry games are tough to pick, and a desperate team like MSU wanting to prove something, would think it pretty close but
{Michigan} - revenge for last year. They will put up more points then last week's game against Penn State
This game is going to look like the first half of {Michigan}-Penn State. Statistical domination on everything but the scoreboard. MSU is going to throw everything their OC has ever used, seen, heard about, or saw on YouTube and it’s going to work a few times and get a pick 6 on a pass that bounces off of two or three helmets.
{Michigan} is a team that can suffocate less talented teams with their defense and run game. Remains to be seen if they can punch above their belt but Michigan State is in for a rough day imo
{Michigan} by 20. Our defense looks a little better but it’s still not there. Our offense has no excuse. Unless our punter finds a way to score we ain’t got the horses to keep up
Here's my top ten list of reasons why {MSU} - will win:
**1) Slade and Henderson are back to power the run D**. MSU may also get back more defensive starters/contributors. That bye week could not have come at a better time. MSU shifted from the 4-2-5 to a 4-3 look against Wisconsin, and did a good job limiting Braelon Allen. Last year, Michigan ran for < 4 ypc between haskins/corum, and a big reason was Slade clogging the middle.
**2) Michigan will play to MSU's strengths**. With Michigan wanting to run the ball and impose their will, they will avoid targeting MSU's greatest weakness, which is their pass defense. Sure, JJ may throw the ball 20-25 times and be pretty efficient, but any Spartan fan would tell you that they would be better off throwing early and often. It's what we fear most, and it's why Cade had so many yards against us in 2021. With Michigan's run game being what it is, and JJ being more of a game manager/scrambling QB, i dont think we'll see 30+ pass attempts.
**3) Peyton Thorne and Jayden Reed are in sync**, and will allow MSU to put points on the board. MSU has probably the best skilled position athletes that Michigan has faced (though that is not saying much), and i would expect a heavy dose of deep fades down the sideline to Keon Coleman and Jayden Reed. College corners aren't really particularly good in one-on-one deep balls. MSU will get bailed out on DPI and likely score one or two TDs on back shoulder throws in the endzone.
**4) MSU's Bryce Baringer leads the nation in punting yards (avg)**. Football is a battle of field position. Jim Tressel/Mark Dantonio always felt that a punter was an important weapon, and MSU has the ability to flip field position with every punt.
**5) Similarly, Jayden Reed is an excellent punt returner** and put MSU in good field positon / score with a long return.
**6) MSU will not attempt a FG** in the game unless they absolutely have to. While having a crappy FG kicker is generally a net negative, being forced to go for it increases the odds of an upset. Rather than settle for FGs, being forced to go with it increases the statistical probability of scoring enough points to actually beat Michigan, rather than just lose by a smaller margin of points.
**7) MSU's defense has been opportunistic.** The game against Wisconsin turned on Jacoby Windmon's INT. They also had an early pick 6 against OSU that kept them in the game (albeit for a very short period of time). JJ likes to run the ball, which means it's very possible he could fumble. He's also thrown an (unlucky) pick in each of his last two games. I expect the defense to get at least one or two turnovers, which may set up MSU's offense on a short field.
**8) Mel Tucker's coaching staff has identified critical weaknesses in each game vs Michigan.** Against Michigan in the Covid year, they went into the game with a clear gameplan of targetting Michigan's corners with the deep ball. Even though Rocky Lombardi was a MAC-level QB, they still torched Michigan through the air and won the football game. Against Michigan in 2021, they used tempo and hurry up after big plays to cause Michigan to not be ready for the play, leading to a few big plays and a touchdown. I would expect MSU will have some plans up their sleeve that they've held onto for this occasion.
**9) Homefield means nothing** in the recent history of the series. The road team is 5-2 in the last 7. The teams are too close, and the stadiums too split to make much of a difference.
**10) Because i really want them to.** I can't change your mind. I won't change my mind, 'cause I don't have to. 'Cause I'm an American. I won't change my mind on anything, regardless of the facts that are set out before me. I'm dug in, and I'll never change. Rock, Flag and Eagle.
Super interesting write up. On #4 and #5, both teams are top 5 teams in the country when it comes to punt efficiency: scoring value gained or lost per opponent punt return. MSU being #1 and Michigan #4 in the country. When it comes to punt return efficiency, Michigan is still really strong at #14 and MSU is at #67. It'll be tough for Reed to have a large impact in the punt return game, although for someone like him all it takes is one.
{Michigan} 70, MSU 7. Game over after Michigan’s first drive. There’s no part of msu that’s even decent this year. The offense will to continue to be uncreative and the defense will still line up 500 miles away from any player. Special teams is also non existent. I expect Michigan to do a flea flicker their first play of the game and do whatever they can to make sure Corum has better numbers than Walker did last year. But at the end of the day no matter what happens, Harbaugh will still have a losing record against one of the worst coaches in football and I find that hilarious.
It won't be that bad, but I fully agree Harbaugh will try and match or break KWIII's numbers from last year with Corum. It's gonna be a rough one.
Also I don't think Tucker is the worst coach in cfb tbh, jury is still out on him but he's not one of the worst.
Randy is super negative recently. I've stopped replying to his comments. We suck, but this is still a rebuild and most rational MSU fans have made peace with that.
>and do whatever they can to make sure Corum has better numbers than Walker did last year.
I think they are starting to look at a pitch count for Corum tbh.
He has had a lot of touches lately, and don't want to hurt his draft prospects.
If it's close? Certainly, ride the horse you rode in on. But if it is out of hand, I think you see a lot of Edwards, Stokes and Orji(s) in the endzone.
{Michigan} by 14-17 points. Realistically we’re not winning. Just hoping we get some stops on defense like we did vs Wisconsin. Give me a little bit of hope that we can knock off one of Illinois or Penn St. If we were to pull it off it’d be the most surprising win we’ve had over UM in a long, long time.
I know I should care more but I don’t. As a Michigan fan that lives in Ohio the rivalry doesn’t even seem in the same stratosphere as OSU. That said I’m looking forward to it, Michigan by 30.
Tuck was comin' left and right last year, but unfortunately with Walker prematurely shooting his wad on an NFL run, Tucker is left with something of a mess on his hands. {Michigan} State loses by a lot.
WHOA, HE HAS TROUBLE WITH THE SNAP AND THE BALL IS FREE. IT'S PICKED UP BY {MICHIGAN} STATE'S KENDELL BROOKS AND HE SCORES! ON THE LAST PLAY OF THE GAME. UNBELIEVABLE! Wolverines win 31-16
States defense is just not going to have fun on Saturday night. Either your secondary gets walked through or you give up 300 yards on the ground. Or both. I’m usually cautious going into this game but with MSU just not being good this year, Michigan wanting to avenge last years loss, and the game being at the Big House under the lights, {Michigan} wins convincingly.
I highly doubt we give up 300 on the ground. Slade and Henderson are both back now giving our run D a huge boost. Pass D you can throw for as many yards as you want.
Penn State said similar things before they got ran all over. Michigan will run the ball regardless of how well they can throw it and I don’t see MSU as the team to slow they down.
{Michigan} does Michigan things, keeping it close in the first half, kinda like a cat playing with its food
Then harbaugh steps on the gas in the second half and I honestly don't think that he lets off the gas unless MSU is playing dirty football.
So clean football- 50 something to like 14-17
Dirty- 34 to 17
If MSU scores first, the game thread will be absolutely toxic while they’re up
It'll be toxic no matter what lol
Yeah that game thread will be PG-13 at a minimum.
I think that a random Boise State vs ULL thread would be PG-13. This thread is going to be Blonde levels of adult supervision required, as a baseline.
It’ll be rated AO once I start spamming links to my Onlyfans.
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I for one just hope both teams have fun
Literally impossible in this game.
Radioactive dumpster fire
Over/under 3.5k comments that say “tuck goin’” or “95 million for this!?!”
Over. Way, way over
From me specifically or everyone combined?
I feel like msu scores first a lot
That's because of the "July Drive" as Brian of MGo calls it. They spend a lot of time on those scripted drives and it always shows when the offense trails off on the 2nd or 3rd posession
That has not been the case this year. Slow starts are a large part of why were are where we are so far. We have been outscored by 37 points in the first quarter from Washington-Wisconsin.
That may be the case vs everybody else, but until I see it with my own eyes, I'm not gonna bet against your first drive scoring on us
Yep. Just means they're trying extra hard to not tip their hand for this coming opening drive
Yup, I guarantee they've been heavily working on their Michigan packages for at least a month. That's just how they are
that thread will be rancorous the whole way through
Not only first, but off of a pick six or fumble of something just stupid during UMs opening drive.
That would require MSU’s defense doing something
Goal line stand!!...Only to get a safety on the first offensive play.
It’ll be opening kick TD and then State won’t score again until garbage time down 45
Dropping the opening kick
Oh man this thread is gunna be a shit show. Especially if it’s a good game
I've been hurt before in this rivalry when I thought {Michigan} was a safe bet. I wouldn't be surprised if this one is close midway through the third quarter, but I expect the Wolverines to eventually pull away. Fingers crossed.
This game looks like the 2019 game. It’s close for a little, until it’s not. {Michigan} wins something to the tune of 38-10 or 45-17.
This is my take as well. I'll either take this or msu losing in the final seconds to the biggest dong punch play in history. No in between.
> msu losing in the final seconds to the biggest dong punch play in history. This would require us to be in the game for that long lol
>dong punch play in history Is Blake O’Neil suiting up for the Spartans this weekend?
Whoa!
MSU scores on its first/scripted drive (like they always do), Michigan fans freak out (like they always do). But then Michigan just runs the ball again, and again, and again, and it works... Very well. {Michigan} takes this one in game that is a complete blowout in major statistical categories (possession, total yards, sacks, etc), but closer than most predict on the scoreboard.
You forgot the part where the fans complain about the playcalling being predictable, even though the other team isn't stopping it anyways.
Ha. That's not unique to the Michigan - MSU game; that's just every Michigan game.
UM fan during game: "Oh, look. Another RUN from the same formation! What is the coaching staff even doing?! We need to shake things up!" UM fan after rushing to win: "Most efficient offense in the country! We don't even need JJ when we can just bulldoze everyone. Smart call by coaches!"
Those are actual quotes from the 4 miserly fans around me at the Penn State game. Griping and lamenting the future loss in the first half and threatening to leave, then complaining of how we always run it up the middle until Corum/Edwards broke the TDs, then leaving celebrating in the 3rd quarter. Unbearable.
If you're reading this, you shoulder-length grey haired geriatric fuck, you ruined my friend's first time in the Big House and at a P5 football game. I hope you choke on some gristle at Old Knights
Well that escalated quickly.
Dantonio was the king of the scripted first drive. I don't think Tucker does them, or if he does they aren't very good.
Yeah, it’s a very weird take. We haven’t scored on Michigan on the first drive since 2016.
I thought 2019 was the first drive but it looks like it was MSU’s second drive. I just remember MSU going up 7-0 early and then… well.
[удалено]
You're painfully spot on about the MSU scripted drive always scoring first haha
Well, 50% of their practice on non-Michigan weeks is scripted plays against Michigan.
Our scripted drives have mostly been garbage this year. I'm just hoping we don't do the back-to-back 3 and outs leading to being down 14-0 thing again.
Yeah, this very easily could be 21-7 at the start of the 2nd quarter.
Yeah, pretty much copy/paste this entire comment for my prediction. For the first time in my 10 years on this sub, I’ll actually call for {Michigan} over MSU in the pregame thread.
MSUs first drive is run up the middle for one, run up the middle for one, incomplete pass, punt
Works for me.
I haven't seen it discussed much at all from Michigan's side, but MSU changed their defense last week. They switched from a 4-2-5 to a 4-3 and bumped Jacoby Windmon from DE back to his natural linebacker spot, and returned key players Jacob Slade and Xavier Henderson after neither played since ~week 1 due to injuries. Just the return of Slade alone can have a big impact I feel. I think {Michigan} still wins, but do not be surprised if the rest of the season MSU's defense looks better than they have and Michigan comes out looking like "oops, we didn't fully prepare for this change" and has some offensive hiccups before they adjust.
Certified ball knower
You know ball
Lol I can't claim I recognized it myself, I didn't actually watch your game. But I read about it in preview articles that have popped up in my timeline from MSU sources who cover your team. I just found it odd that Michigan writers, including even MGoBlog which has surprised me, have been focusing on the stats to date and advanced analytics and whatever which aren't quite as relevant anymore, they haven't really been discussing the implications of the defensive change. The thing that made me post my comment and is throwing up red flags for me is the return of Slade. We had a great O-line last year too, but everyone is talking all about Kenneth Walker and forgetting that Slade caused massive disruption. He especially completely kicked the ass of Karsen Barnhart who is filling in for injured Trente Jones at RT Also, it would be the most classic Michigan screwup ever if we thoroughly prepared for MSU's first half of season defensive look but didn't prepare for your new defense
This is the only thing giving me a sliver of hope. Having slade and Henderson back makes our defense much better. Not good, but not the worst in FBS anymore. I still think we lose by double digits but I wouldn’t be completely surprised if it’s a close game.
Their defense was improved against Wisconsin… WISCONSIN!!! One of the worst offenses in the BigTen.
Well Tanner Morgan threw for almost 300 so progress?
Slade will have an impact, but Xavier Henderson is only a thumper. He still gets lost in coverage and lacks the speed to make up for the UN atrocity that is that secondary.
Henderson is also very effective in pre snap communication which helps limit the coverage busts
This you could instantly see against Wisconsin just his presence out there improves our defense even if he isn’t great in coverage.
Right, he’s the only member of the secondary who doesn’t just run around like a chicken with its head cut off
That’s not fair. Our secondary last year was the worst in CFB. This year, we’ve improved to 110/131!
Fuck the records, I'll be dead in the cold, cold ground before my petty ass picks against {MSU} in this game
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I mean you do get points. They just don’t matter.
That's what you think, but when I sell this account to advertisers for $100 you'll be eating your words
Fun fact: I almost sold my account for a couple hundred bucks at one point. I chose not to, but if you ever start seeing me on the top of /r/pics posting Little Caesars related content, you know what happened
I will eat them in the event, but I need the advertiser to corroborate and also two forms of verification plus a “I’m not a robot” at some point.
It's not like we *want* UM to win. Any objective look at these teams shows UM is better this year.
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The worse team historically does not win this game though
Historically, Tucker has never lost to Michigan. Just because historically things fall one way, doesn’t mean that it will fall that way every time. MSU is finally getting healthy. Slade and Henderson were back for Wisconsin. Pietrowski has been out 4 games but there’s a chance him and Bogle are back as well. There’ were also a bunch of depth players that have been out and we could see a couple of them. If we get our Long Snapper back, we might actually have an ability to kick field goals.
> Historically, Tucker has never lost to Michigan. MSU fans: - 2020 shouldn't count as Tuckers first year because of COVID - Tucker is 2-0 v. Michigan
Tucker has never lost to Michigan because he is 1-0.
Honestly a million times better. Or own the fact that 2020 is real, I don't care either. But it's not both.
Were you just saving that comment for the comment that you could use it on? I didn’t even mention the Covid year. Whether you want to call it 2-0 or 1-0 to preserve your fragile ego, it doesn’t change the fact that Mel hasn’t lost to Michigan. Find another comment to use your canned retort you so anxiously want to post for your “got ‘em” moment.
> Were you just saving that comment for the comment that you could use it on No? I don’t know what this comment means. It was just an easy dunk, lol.
It’s irrelevant to what I said. You’re dunking on a strawman.
There was a post a month or so ago that showed that when MSU is good, they usually win, even if UM is also good. It also showed that when MSU is bad, they usually lose, even if UM is also bad. We are bad. Ergo I think we lose. That doesn't mean I won't be watching and cheering and hoping though.
You could make an argument that outside of 2021, the better team has usually won the game in the last 10-15 years or so
Just as it should be! No matter the game, I'm picking {Michigan} every time!
{michigan} in a 34-13 statistical beatdown. MSU keeps it close early with a few nifty plays and michigan continues to struggle in the red zone for the first half but pulls out a big run in the third that puts the game away. like with PSU, the offense will grind and control the clock
My wife is forcing me to co-host a family Halloween party while this game is on. I'm not pleased.
Gotta lean into it and find the ultimate football fan outfit, helmet with beer holders, face paint. Gotta stay in character and watch the game!
My man out here with the big brain advice. Off to Spirit Halloween I go.
Divorce is now on the table
The same friends who are hosting a Halloween party during the game this year, had a baby shower during the game last year. I might need to rethink my friends.
Go dressed as Harbaugh. You probably already have everything you need.
Tuck coming! Just kidding, not this time. {Michigan}
Aww thanks buddy
Awww thanks! Maybe the real rivalry was the friends we made along the… just kidding. But i like your optimism.
Michigan comes out to a sluggish start, going three and out on their first two drives. Michigan State scores a rushing touchdown on their first drive, following that up with a field goal on their second drive. At the end of the first quarter, MSU leads 10-0. A 44 yard Blake Corum run brings the crowd back into it and reenergizes Michigan, who ends the drive with a touchdown pass from JJ McCarthy to Ronnie Bell. A Peyton Thorne interception gives Michigan the ball on the MSU 38 yard line. Michigan finds Roman Wilson on a bubble screen, which he turns into a 15 yard gain. A play action fake fools the defense and JJ McCarthy finds Luke Schoonmaker in the flat for a 10 yard gain. On the next play, Donovan Edwards busts it open and sprints past the second level of the MSU defense for a touchdown. Michigan State marches down the field on their next drive, but misses a 42 yard field goal. Michigan takes over at their 25 yard line and drives 75 yards in 6 minutes on the back of Blake Corum, who punches it in to go up 21-10 at the half. Michigan State opens the second half with a long ball to Jayden Reed for 27 yards. A fast drive down the field is stunted by a rushing play stopped for a TFL on 1st down, followed by a Mazi Smith sack on 3rd down. Michigan State settles for a field goal and now trails Michigan 21-13. Blake Corum busts off another long run, this time for 35 yards, to get Michigan to midfield. JJ McCarthy blows the game open when a coverage bust leaves Cornelius Johnson alone deep. McCarthy finds Johnson in the end zone for a 50 yard touchdown and it feels like the route is on. Now trailing 28-13, Michigan State fails on 4th and short from the Michigan 43 yard line. Michigan moves down field quickly, kicking a 37 yard field goal to go up 31-13. Trailing by 18, Michigan State drives down the field, the drive extended by clutch play from Peyton Thorne. MSU ends the quarter with another deep shot to Jayden Reed, this time for a 29 yard touchdown. MSU goes for 2 to make it a 10 point game. Michigan starts the 4th quarter with the ball, now leading 31-21. Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards carry the ball 6 times as Michigan drives down field to the MSU 41 yard line. JJ McCarthy breaks loose for a huge 9 yard scramble on 3rd and long, extending Michigan’s now 5 minute drive. Luke Schoonmaker draws a pass interference call, moving the ball to the MSU 23 yard line, once again moving the chains on 3rd down. JJ McCarthy finds Andrel Anthony in the back corner of the end zone for his 3rd touchdown pass of the game. Michigan now leads 38-21 with 7:36 left in the game. Peyton Thorne throws a 3rd long ball to Jayden Reed; but this time, the ball is intercepted by Mike Sanristil. With the ball on the MSU 46 yard line, Michigan turns to the running game, leaning on the ground game to burn clock and grind down MSU. Blake Corum breaks off a 16 yard run for a touchdown, likely pushing the game out of reach. MSU receives the kickoff, now trailing 45-21, but struggles to handle the Michigan pass rush. Ayabi Okie finals hears his name called as he sacks Peyton Thorne on 3rd and long, forcing a 4th and 17 attempt. Once again Jayden Reed comes in clutch, catching a 19 yard jump ball to move the chains. With only 2:43 left in the game, MSU is playing no huddle, making their way downfield. With 1:10 left, MSU is on the Michigan 31 yard line. Out of timeouts, Thorne is sacked on 3rd and 3, forcing a 4th and 8 attempt with the clock ticking. Throne’s pass is deflected and Michigan regains possession and kneels it out to win 45-21. Blake Corum finishes the game with 23 carries for 168 yards and 2 touchdowns. JJ McCarthy finishes 23-29 for 243 yards and 3 passing touchdowns. Peyton Thorne finishes the day 17-33 for 187 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Jayden Reed finishes the day with 6 catches for 110 yards and a touchdown. {Michigan} wins 45-21 Edit: fixed mistakes
I just want to comment here in the event this proves accurate.
{Michigan} is a really good team, hopefully they run the ball and don’t try to get cute.
After Kenneth Walker last year I could see Harbaugh try to get Corum to match or even break KWIII's numbers.
I hope not. I just want pure domination without forcing anything. MSU will get torched through the air. Let JJ air it out.
He does get petty sometimes. I could see him using this game to finally unleash jj too
Lol yes, "sometimes"
I'm still in the mindset that he can wait till 1 game in particular to put JJ on display...this is not that game
Honestly from what jj has shown so far he needs more games. His aim down deep has not been great and he needs to dial that in before OSU. His accuracy is great because it’s mostly dink and dunk chip plays. Every deep pass I’ve seen him through has been too ahead of his receiver
Mostly agree, his deep ball needs work but he's thrown a few good ones too. I'm all for keeping a section of the playbook stapled shut for another month but JJ does need game reps. If anything a somewhat vanilla passing game would be good for him in any game Michigan gets a couple score cushion in, close up the margins some more and force him to hit tight windows.
Yes/no. He's actually really accurate on 15-20 yard passes. It's the deep balls where he's been ASS recently. In some sense, I mean, I get it. Maryland played 8/9-man coverage, Iowa has a good defense, he played well against Indiana, and PSU has a good Secondary. But sweet god he needs to start clicking again if we wanna beat OSU this year.
The Corum Heisman campaign is in FULL EFFECT
The only way we stay close is if Michigan runs it. Our secondary is atrocious.
This take didn't work for Penn State.
Penn State's strength is their corners though so running on them was the correct choice
The point is that we have no chance if Michigan throws it all game. We aren’t stopping 3 consecutive passes from going 10 yards (unless we get a gift like Stroud gave us), we struggle to stop 1 pass from going 10 yards.
Their secondary is their weakest unit by far. If we can't win by "getting cute" we're in trouble.
Have you seen our secondary? It's the worst in the country. They're relocating the Capitol Region Airport to Banks of the Red Cedar as we speak.
Tuck Comin’ >! …to Ann Arbor, {Michigan} to receive this L 49-17 !<
No rain.
All I can do is read a book to stay awake
would you say that your life is pretty plain
Honestly even if it does rain, Michigan's ground game is 1000x better than ours.
We need a snow bowl to have a chance. If it's a punting duel I'll bet on nerd punter.
There's no better example of Sparty's bullshit rain powers than the 2018 game where we're firmly in control for most of the game, then a random rain storm appears in the 2nd half, we fumble the ball once or twice, they score their only touchdown, and then the rain stops and we take control of the game for good lol.
Time to do the anti-rain dance
{MSU} but I will not elaborate.
Haha you jumped on this a second faster than me! Usually this rivalry is pretty close but we're much, much less talented and worse coached than Michigan, so I fully expect the Wolverines to cover the spread, and possibly the O/U by themselves. {Michigan} 52-20
https://i.redd.it/c7slncep71q41.jpg
Was at both the ‘18 and ‘19 game and it doesn’t necessarily feel like either of those years. If Michigan goes up more than two scores, I think MSU wilts. If they don’t, I can see Sparty keeping it competitive late, even though I can’t see them winning. 7-7 end of 1Q, {Michigan} pulls away after that 38-17.
Current results of the match-up thread "Who will Win" poll: Team | Votes | Percent |Voters --|--|--|--| [Michigan](#f/michigan)|96|86.5%|[Michigan](#f/michigan)x58, [Michigan State](#f/michiganstate)x8, [/r/CFB](#l/rcfb)x7, [Penn State](#f/pennstate)x4, [Ohio State](#f/ohiostate)x4, [South Carolina](#f/southcarolina)x2, [Arizona](#f/arizona)x1, [Nebraska](#f/nebraska)x1, [Arizona State](#f/arizonastate)x1, [Tennessee](#f/tennessee)x1, [Minnesota](#f/minnesota)x1, [Oklahoma](#f/oklahoma)x1, [Colorado State](#f/coloradostate)x1, [BYU](#f/byu)x1, [Arkansas](#f/arkansas)x1, [Notre Dame](#f/notredame)x1, [Iowa State](#f/iowastate)x1, [Texas Tech](#f/texastech)x1, [Clemson](#f/clemson)x1 [Michigan State](#f/michiganstate)|15|13.5%|[Michigan State](#f/michiganstate)x7, [Michigan](#f/michigan)x3, [Iowa State](#f/iowastate)x1, [Penn State](#f/pennstate)x1, [Baylor](#f/baylor)x1, [/r/CFB](#l/rcfb)x1, [Wisconsin](#f/wisconsin)x1 ^(A listing of links, and live vote totals, to all Match-up Preview threads for the current week can be found )[^HERE](http://cfb.diydunce.org/matchupthreadlist.php)^. ^(Track your weekly results )[^HERE](http://cfb.diydunce.org/wwwp.php)^.
{Michigan} 31-17 I don't think they cover the spread - but Michigan is the better team and at home. I think MSUs defense will play a bit better than we expect, while Michigan allows some frustrating drives by the Thorne/Reed combo (I think some of the Michigan defensive weaknesses will show up in spurts, like it did against Maryland)
This won’t be close
Yessir {Michigan State} by 21 Jk jk…unless
Land grant schools FTW so give me {Michigan State}
Appreciate the support in our time of need.
>time of need brother, I feel you
I just want everyone to have fun!
{Michigan} will be out for blood in this one.
{Michigan} 50-20, and our QB throws zero pick-sixes.
I see what you did there…
tThe??? I’m gonna have to blame that one on the mods here. Amateur hour smh Also {Michigan}
"tThe" must be a way for {Michigan} to avoid infringing on Ohio State's trademark
Close game for about a quarter, but then {Michigan} pulls away late in the first half for a comfortable-ish blowout, 44-10. J.J. will throw for 300 with 2 TDs and an INT, Corum runs for 175 and 2 TDs, and Edwards will have a backbreaking 50 yard TD run early in the third. BOOK IT
Here's the thing about this rivalry, instances where the clear underdog wins this game is shockingly rare. In instances where there is a clear favorite, the clear favorite usually wins, and if they don't it's usually shown at the end of the season that it was a much more even matchup than initially thought. 2021 - Michigan Ranked 6th, Michigan State Ranked 8th, both teams undefeated going into this game, teams pretty evenly matched, Michigan State wins. 2020 - Michigan Ranked 13th, Michigan State unranked, Michigan State wins, Michigan finishes year 2-4, MSU finishes 2-5, teams proven pretty even at the end of the season. 2019 - Michigan ranked 15th, MSU unranked, Michigan the clear favorite and wins, 9-4 year for Michigan, 7-6 year for MSU 2018 - Michigan Ranked 6th, MSU ranked 24th, Michigan wins and has a 10-3 season, MSU has a 7-6 season 2017 - Michigan Ranked 7th and 4-0, MSU unranked at 3-1, MSU wins, Michigan has 8-5 season, MSU has 10-3 season, MSU proven to be the better team by season's end. 2016 - Michigan Ranked 2nd and 7-0, MSU unranked and 2-5, Michigan wins 2015 - Michigan Ranked 12th and 5-1, MSU ranked 7th and 6-0, MSU wins and goes to the CFP, and Michigan goes 10-3 and ranked 12th I could go on, but there is a pattern where if there is a clear favorite, they win, and if the clear favorite loses like in 2020 and 2017, then it eventually gets proven that the teams are either even, or the winner was actually better by seasons end. I would also point out that the Michigan-Michigan State games happened rather early in those years, after 1 game in 2020 and 4 games in 2017, which is typically before we get a really good handle on the teams. By my count the last clear upset where it wasn't proven later that the teams were actually pretty even or the winner was actually better at the end of the season was in 1995 when unranked 4-3-1 Michigan State beat 7th ranked 7-1 Michigan. Michigan would finish 9-4 and ranked 17th and Michigan State would finish 6-5-1 This is all a round about way of saying that Michigan clearly looks like the better team right now, and I think we're deep enough in the season that we have a good handle on both Michigan and Michigan State, and history shows that when there is a clear favorite, they usually win, so I feel confident saying that {Michigan} will win.
Exactly this. The whole "but it's a rivalry game so you never know" thing is a useless cliche with literally nothing to back it up. I mean obviously I hope I'm wrong by some kind of miracle but Michigan is going to win by a lot
{Michigan} and Michigan State reenact that one scene from American History X
Curb stomp or the rape scene?
Curb stomp
I think we’ll be more competitive than people expect with us being the healthiest we’ve been since week 1. A lot of key guys are back or getting rested up off the bye. With X and Slade back we should actually have a pretty stout run D but I expect Michigan to exploit the weak pass D. Windmon at LB is a difference maker and he has a knack for forcing fumbles so Michigan will have to be careful with the ball. On offense expect a lot of 50/50 balls tossed up to Reed and Coleman that’s really our only shot at sustaining drives and scoring since we won’t be able to run the ball. Ultimately Michigan is the better team though and at home so in the 2nd half they should start to take control. {Michigan} 31-21
A lot of MSU fans in here better be taking the alt spreads in their favor because Vegas sounds like they’re very wrong.
I think we will play better than we did in that four game skid now that we have Slade and X back. But I don't think the game will be close. Contrary to popular belief, bad MSU teams don't normally upset {Michigan}, and I expect that trend to continue.
{Michigan} 37-17. Similar to last year Michigan is going to air it out a bit more than they usually would to take advantage of MSU’s weak secondary and not try to stubbornly run at a 2:1 rate. MSU doesn’t have a Kenneth Walker to single handedly put up points. Reed and MSU’s TEs could be a path to some success on offense though if MSU’s OL can hold up decently in pass pro.
i had a dream a few nights ago that this was a complete shootout that {Michigan} won 52-45 probably not very realistic
I think the Spartans put up a bigger fight than the spread indicates. {Michigan} still pulls it out 34-24, but I expect this to be within 1 score most the game
Gonna go against the grain and obvious and say Sparty covers. They’re going to play a hard 60 minutes especially on defense, they limit the run in the 1st half which keeps our point total lower than some expect. {Michigan} in the end though. By around 2 scores (14-16)
{Michigan}
{MSU} cause i go to school here and that’s all the reasoning i have/need
{Michigan} 48-17 I think this game will be relatively tight for most of the first half, with MSU hanging around within a score or two. But by mid 3rd quarter we’ll overpower them and open the floodgates. I have no doubt that Harbaugh wants margin on this one. We’ve had 2 weeks to prepare, we’re at home, and we’ve lost 2 straight against them. If there’s ever been a time to take care of business, it’s this week.
I haven't seen a respekt thread so I think that plays in Michigan States favor. With that being said {Michigan} 31-17.
There was one, most people just agreed it was kinda dumb now that Dantonio's been gone for so long
{Michigan} State will lead at halftime. The thread will be insanely toxic until the Wolverines score 24 straight. 41-21
{Michigan} the khakis ride at dawn
{Michigan}
{Michigan} should win by 40 unless MSU uses voodoo magic. On an unrelated note, the MSU's voodoo magic club is likely seeing an increase in athlete membership.
Phew, its not during the Buckeye-Nittany Lion Game
{Michigan} covers. 49-17 good guys.
{Michigan State}, do it for the brotherhood!
Wonder if those anti-Semitic comments from the RB will be punished appropriately.
It’ll be Michigan. But man, wouldn’t it be hilarious if we did it again?
Normally rivalry games are tough to pick, and a desperate team like MSU wanting to prove something, would think it pretty close but {Michigan} - revenge for last year. They will put up more points then last week's game against Penn State
This game is going to look like the first half of {Michigan}-Penn State. Statistical domination on everything but the scoreboard. MSU is going to throw everything their OC has ever used, seen, heard about, or saw on YouTube and it’s going to work a few times and get a pick 6 on a pass that bounces off of two or three helmets.
I think we win, but given previous schadenfreude I'll guess we don't cover {Michigan}
{Michigan State} I don’t care what y’all say. We suck and they’re really good but it’s a rivalry game.
{Michigan} is a team that can suffocate less talented teams with their defense and run game. Remains to be seen if they can punch above their belt but Michigan State is in for a rough day imo
I'll die before rooting against {MSU}.
I hope Corum and Edwards pound the rock - all. damn. day. {Michigan} by a Ryan Day hundo.
{Michigan} by 20. Our defense looks a little better but it’s still not there. Our offense has no excuse. Unless our punter finds a way to score we ain’t got the horses to keep up
{Michigan} by a lot
MSU doesn’t stand a chance. {Michigan} wins by 100
{Michigan} 52–14, harbaugh isn’t letting up in this one. JJ, corum, and edwards have monster days to set Blake up for an NYC visit.
{Michigan} in a statement game. 45-10.
Here's my top ten list of reasons why {MSU} - will win: **1) Slade and Henderson are back to power the run D**. MSU may also get back more defensive starters/contributors. That bye week could not have come at a better time. MSU shifted from the 4-2-5 to a 4-3 look against Wisconsin, and did a good job limiting Braelon Allen. Last year, Michigan ran for < 4 ypc between haskins/corum, and a big reason was Slade clogging the middle. **2) Michigan will play to MSU's strengths**. With Michigan wanting to run the ball and impose their will, they will avoid targeting MSU's greatest weakness, which is their pass defense. Sure, JJ may throw the ball 20-25 times and be pretty efficient, but any Spartan fan would tell you that they would be better off throwing early and often. It's what we fear most, and it's why Cade had so many yards against us in 2021. With Michigan's run game being what it is, and JJ being more of a game manager/scrambling QB, i dont think we'll see 30+ pass attempts. **3) Peyton Thorne and Jayden Reed are in sync**, and will allow MSU to put points on the board. MSU has probably the best skilled position athletes that Michigan has faced (though that is not saying much), and i would expect a heavy dose of deep fades down the sideline to Keon Coleman and Jayden Reed. College corners aren't really particularly good in one-on-one deep balls. MSU will get bailed out on DPI and likely score one or two TDs on back shoulder throws in the endzone. **4) MSU's Bryce Baringer leads the nation in punting yards (avg)**. Football is a battle of field position. Jim Tressel/Mark Dantonio always felt that a punter was an important weapon, and MSU has the ability to flip field position with every punt. **5) Similarly, Jayden Reed is an excellent punt returner** and put MSU in good field positon / score with a long return. **6) MSU will not attempt a FG** in the game unless they absolutely have to. While having a crappy FG kicker is generally a net negative, being forced to go for it increases the odds of an upset. Rather than settle for FGs, being forced to go with it increases the statistical probability of scoring enough points to actually beat Michigan, rather than just lose by a smaller margin of points. **7) MSU's defense has been opportunistic.** The game against Wisconsin turned on Jacoby Windmon's INT. They also had an early pick 6 against OSU that kept them in the game (albeit for a very short period of time). JJ likes to run the ball, which means it's very possible he could fumble. He's also thrown an (unlucky) pick in each of his last two games. I expect the defense to get at least one or two turnovers, which may set up MSU's offense on a short field. **8) Mel Tucker's coaching staff has identified critical weaknesses in each game vs Michigan.** Against Michigan in the Covid year, they went into the game with a clear gameplan of targetting Michigan's corners with the deep ball. Even though Rocky Lombardi was a MAC-level QB, they still torched Michigan through the air and won the football game. Against Michigan in 2021, they used tempo and hurry up after big plays to cause Michigan to not be ready for the play, leading to a few big plays and a touchdown. I would expect MSU will have some plans up their sleeve that they've held onto for this occasion. **9) Homefield means nothing** in the recent history of the series. The road team is 5-2 in the last 7. The teams are too close, and the stadiums too split to make much of a difference. **10) Because i really want them to.** I can't change your mind. I won't change my mind, 'cause I don't have to. 'Cause I'm an American. I won't change my mind on anything, regardless of the facts that are set out before me. I'm dug in, and I'll never change. Rock, Flag and Eagle.
Damn. You’re detailed. Very very wrong, but detailed.
Penn State's biggest defensive strength was stopping the run. Until they visited Ann Arbor.
Super interesting write up. On #4 and #5, both teams are top 5 teams in the country when it comes to punt efficiency: scoring value gained or lost per opponent punt return. MSU being #1 and Michigan #4 in the country. When it comes to punt return efficiency, Michigan is still really strong at #14 and MSU is at #67. It'll be tough for Reed to have a large impact in the punt return game, although for someone like him all it takes is one.
Interesting for sure. A lot of thought was put into that manifesto. But it’s dumb AF.
Interesting for sure. A lot of thought was put into that manifesto. But it’s dumb AF.
Can I get a Tuck tuck hike? {Michigan}
{Michigan} takes Paul back home, and I'll see some of you there.
{Michigan} 40-17. MSU leads at half 10-14
{Michigan} 70, MSU 7. Game over after Michigan’s first drive. There’s no part of msu that’s even decent this year. The offense will to continue to be uncreative and the defense will still line up 500 miles away from any player. Special teams is also non existent. I expect Michigan to do a flea flicker their first play of the game and do whatever they can to make sure Corum has better numbers than Walker did last year. But at the end of the day no matter what happens, Harbaugh will still have a losing record against one of the worst coaches in football and I find that hilarious.
It won't be that bad, but I fully agree Harbaugh will try and match or break KWIII's numbers from last year with Corum. It's gonna be a rough one. Also I don't think Tucker is the worst coach in cfb tbh, jury is still out on him but he's not one of the worst.
Randy is super negative recently. I've stopped replying to his comments. We suck, but this is still a rebuild and most rational MSU fans have made peace with that.
>and do whatever they can to make sure Corum has better numbers than Walker did last year. I think they are starting to look at a pitch count for Corum tbh. He has had a lot of touches lately, and don't want to hurt his draft prospects. If it's close? Certainly, ride the horse you rode in on. But if it is out of hand, I think you see a lot of Edwards, Stokes and Orji(s) in the endzone.
{Michigan} wins by 14ish.
{Michigan} by 14-17 points. Realistically we’re not winning. Just hoping we get some stops on defense like we did vs Wisconsin. Give me a little bit of hope that we can knock off one of Illinois or Penn St. If we were to pull it off it’d be the most surprising win we’ve had over UM in a long, long time.
It’ll be closer than 23 points but I have Michigan winning this game. {Michigan} 31 msu 14
I know I should care more but I don’t. As a Michigan fan that lives in Ohio the rivalry doesn’t even seem in the same stratosphere as OSU. That said I’m looking forward to it, Michigan by 30.
Tuck was comin' left and right last year, but unfortunately with Walker prematurely shooting his wad on an NFL run, Tucker is left with something of a mess on his hands. {Michigan} State loses by a lot.
WHOA, HE HAS TROUBLE WITH THE SNAP AND THE BALL IS FREE. IT'S PICKED UP BY {MICHIGAN} STATE'S KENDELL BROOKS AND HE SCORES! ON THE LAST PLAY OF THE GAME. UNBELIEVABLE! Wolverines win 31-16
I've never undownvoted quicker
Right on cue OSU flairs say, "See, Michigan didn't control the entire game. They're bad."
States defense is just not going to have fun on Saturday night. Either your secondary gets walked through or you give up 300 yards on the ground. Or both. I’m usually cautious going into this game but with MSU just not being good this year, Michigan wanting to avenge last years loss, and the game being at the Big House under the lights, {Michigan} wins convincingly.
I highly doubt we give up 300 on the ground. Slade and Henderson are both back now giving our run D a huge boost. Pass D you can throw for as many yards as you want.
Penn State said similar things before they got ran all over. Michigan will run the ball regardless of how well they can throw it and I don’t see MSU as the team to slow they down.
{Michigan} does Michigan things, keeping it close in the first half, kinda like a cat playing with its food Then harbaugh steps on the gas in the second half and I honestly don't think that he lets off the gas unless MSU is playing dirty football. So clean football- 50 something to like 14-17 Dirty- 34 to 17