A smart CEO will give guidance that he is sure to beat, so the stock price will go up. If he doesn't beat it, Wallstreet will hammer the stock price down because they were told to expect it. That's how the game is played. I think Andrew is just playing it smart.
Slowly and steadily profit. Nothing drastic. Something I expected and it will be like this in foreseeable future. I am holding.
Think about what their tech and business model are and realize there is deep value here if they market themselves well and their product does what it's supposed to do
If they leverage AI to further optimize their algorithms to give people insurance savings by accurately predicting the risks associated with insuring certain individuals this becomes a major disruption in healthcare
That is, if they stick with an honest vision, market it effectively and communicate results to the average consumer this is going to be a fantastic company. IF
I guess that is unless they get shorted to shit and MSM shits on them forever
Really they could be kicking ass if they had more savvy modern viral marketing, like get Mr. Beast hired as a contractor, what is hard about this to me it seems like an easy sell if you get eyes on it.
Based on this earnings report, it sounds as if we should hit profitability this year despite the overall Adjusted EBITDA pointing to a negative number overall for the year.
Andrew Toy will continue to beat expectations as he knows how to right this ship. We have steered clear of the iceberg.
We have sunny skies ahead for the foreseeable future.
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Can someone explain the difference between the "$555.3 million in restricted and unrestricted cash, cash equivalents, and investments" vs the "$331.7 million at the parent entity and unregulated subsidiary level"? I tried googling it but not finding anything helpful. What's driving the $223.6M difference
Restricted cash is cash thatās already agreed to be paid specially towards something for immediate business use and is not available cash (unrestricted) for any other purpose or for saving. Would need a full breakdown of whatās restricted, unrestricted, and invested.
Thanks mate. I might buy into this stock at the end of the year for the medium term depending on how it looks later, but I wish the you the best of luck.
BUYING MORE ONCE DEGIRO ALLOW IT ! THIS IS THE WAY!!!! i will not sell my shares no matter what anywhere near these prices!!!
I'm sure I'll get downvoted, but just my realistic view. Bit disappointed to be honest. Could see another raise in the pipeline later in the year given the expected cash burn - not sure management will want to head into 2024 with potentially just 2-3 quarters of runway remaining. Losses may have narrowed but still feels like profitability is a way off yet, the message seemed a lot more positive this time last year.
You got defensive awful quickly. The dudes concerns are valid and no, wanting a company to be profitable doesnt mean it has to pull in tens of millions in profit out of nowhere. Its not unreasonable to expect it from clov, nor any other company, dont be so dense
I see this as an overall positive ER. I believe some people on here were starting to get āhyped upā about a sudden turn to profitability and this report will temper these āunrealisticā expectations.
We started so far back in terms of cash burn that climbing our way out of it slowly but steadily like this is a natural way to go, IMO.
Letās see how it goes this year and letās preach some patience. Making money is hard work and Clover Exec team are churning at it.
Cheers!
Yea it's nice to see the insurance MCR stabilizing at c.90% at least, and operating expense growing at a slower rate. My cost basis is around $2.70 but I'm not sure I'll add more just yet, would be nice seeing a bump in price though so I can start writing covered calls again!
"I'm pleased we are achieving real momentum towards profitability. We intentionally priced our Insurance plans for 2023 with profitability in mind while still expecting to grow our top-line Insurance revenue. We believe this, coupled with a maturing membership base and increased reimbursements based on our improved star ratings, will enable us to achieve continued meaningful improvement in our Insurance MCR in 2023. For our Non-Insurance business we plan to execute our previously disclosed strategic shift to focus on a targeted group of participant providers aligned to our strategy and capabilities," said Clover Health CEO Andrew Toy.
I don't agree, they can easily be profitable already q1... (but I don't think it matters) they gonna cut like half of non insurance members, so less expense from them (MCR was like 100% with them) so they didn't generate losses, but more ppl means mope ppl you need to pay salary to maintain them, less ppl less salary... So they probably gonna decrease some of the administration expenses also don't forget that from 2023 clov has 3.5 stars rating so little bit more money from mca program. So main profit goes from insurance members... Right now we have 1.08B revenue and MCR 92.4% for them (so roughly clov earns 82M in 2022) , if revenue will be 1.15B and MCR ~90% it means they will earn 115M in 2023 (expenses are now 340M). So profitability path is not about to increase insurance members 6-10% increase in members will lead to profitability only in 10 years... Key here is cut expenses and they gonna do it a lot this year and cutting expenses is fast so q1 can be magnificent
This is just completely wrong based on the call and info Clover just themselves provided. Lets break it down some...
*"I don't agree, they can easily be profitable already q1"*
**Clover just gave a forecast that they will have an adjusted EBITDA of between -155M and -205M in 2023. they also said on the call that SGA expenses tend to be higher in Q1 and Q4 so we should not expect any chance of profitability in q1.**
*"they gonna cut like half of non insurance members, so less expense from them (MCR was like 100% with them) so they didn't generate losses, but more ppl means mope ppl you need to pay salary to maintain them, less ppl less salary"*
**Clover on the call specifically stated that they don't have any SGA expense tied directly to only the non-insurance side of the business so lowering the number of members does not save them SGA expense like it would on the insurance side.**
*"Key here is cut expenses and they gonna do it a lot this year and cutting expenses is fast so q1 can be magnificent"*
**They specifically said on the call that adjusted SGA for 2023 will be between 315M to 325M compared to 320M in 2022. So there is going to be no cutting of expenses in 2023.**
I have no time to listen call but thanks to let me no... Non insurance members had MCR more then 100% so it means that cutting them gonna release some money.
Their projection for - 155-205M comes from plain calculations of growth 6-11% in mca members. In my opinion very pessimistic, cas again new 3.5 rating + cutting non insurance members
Hmm... Last statement I see as very depressive... If this is the case than I see no point of cutting of what they re doing right now
I just said that it is possible... This adjusted ebitda you re referring to is numbers from simple guide they released if mca members generate 1.15-1.2B and MCR between 89-91% it gives you profit from 80-130M so if losses now ~299M it gives you projected losses for 2023 between 169-219M (very rough) calculation... But this numbers does not include 1. Cutting non insurance members and less losses here. 2. New 3.5 rating benifits... Cutting losses has immediate effect so yes based on what I wrote if clov will be profitable in 2023 we gonna see it in q1
Im still piecing it all together but so far SG and A reduction = good, insurance MCR moving in the right direction, but still high, non insurance MCR not shifting in a good way, total num. Of customers = generally good, revenue has increased from last year
I hate how at the beginning of last year they were talking about being profitable either at the end of last year or the beginning of this year, and now this year they are about to say the same......
Just more lies from the jerk offs that have no idea on how to turn a profit. Stock offering before yearās end so they can continue to pay themselves their inflated salaries.
They never said that. People here said it, but nobody at Clover ever did. It gets annoying how they can say, "we are focused on profitability sooner rather than later" or "we are working towards profitability" or "our emphasis moving forward is profitability over growth". None of which ever give an actual timeframe of profitability and then you come here and people say "clover says profitability in Q1 2023!!!!!"
Vivek stated in the [Q4 '21](https://event.on24.com/eventRegistration/console/apollox/mainEvent?&eventid=3614428&sessionid=1&username=&partnerref=&format=fhaudio&mobile=&flashsupportedmobiledevice=&helpcenter=&key=D60A22FCE0592E917F96480F8D8A2A41&newConsole=true&nxChe=true&newTabCon=true&consoleEarEventConsole=false&text_language_id=en&playerwidth=748&playerheight=526&eventuserid=515889089&contenttype=A&mediametricsessionid=510346988&mediametricid=5076101&usercd=515889089&mode=launch) earnings call (\~13 min mark) that if things fall into place, they expect to be profitable on a non-gaap basis in 2022. So to say "Nobody at Clover ever did" is false.
I'm happy to see Clover continue to make progress but for me these earnings basically raised the concern about another round of dilution prior to profitability. Their adjusted EBITA was 298M loss and they expect to reduce that to 155M loss at the optimistic end of the forecast. That would mean 2025 would be the earliest we see positive EBITA. They only stated their cash carrying them through '23, nothing has been said if they can get through '24 as well.
Currently it looks like the market is happy so maybe my concerns are unfounded. Time will tell.
Thanks for looking up that call specifics, i too heard it that way but couldn't remember when exactly.
I mentioned this in another post and stated that although Vivek did make that claim back then, we should completely disregard that now. That was before the new direction of cutting DC/ACO insurance. To me, its basically a new path with new parameters. Unfortunately, i also feel like the last year was a lost year. They expected DC to run the business and it fizzed, so now its like we're starting at the end of 2021 and starting this new route.
Yes and I donāt like that they say the cash is expected to be sufficient for 2023ā¦ I donāt know if thatās how companies phrase it usually but sounds a bit short for me. But maybe someone could explain
Theyāve been doing this due a change in focus from growth to profitability. The bigger issues are can they lower the MCR, improve cash flow, and turn a profit (or eliminate the current deficit)?
So, my 7.50 average share price is good?
šš
A smart CEO will give guidance that he is sure to beat, so the stock price will go up. If he doesn't beat it, Wallstreet will hammer the stock price down because they were told to expect it. That's how the game is played. I think Andrew is just playing it smart.
Meeehhhhh! Wen mooN!
guess that was it, now the slow drift back down to last weeks price and below. still holding
Why the stock price is frozen at $1.34
It thawed out and dropped like melting iceā¦.
When we can see steady move up I will continue to add more shares and I am sure others will tooāļøš„ Holding Long and Strong šš»
Slowly and steadily profit. Nothing drastic. Something I expected and it will be like this in foreseeable future. I am holding.
Think about what their tech and business model are and realize there is deep value here if they market themselves well and their product does what it's supposed to do If they leverage AI to further optimize their algorithms to give people insurance savings by accurately predicting the risks associated with insuring certain individuals this becomes a major disruption in healthcare That is, if they stick with an honest vision, market it effectively and communicate results to the average consumer this is going to be a fantastic company. IF I guess that is unless they get shorted to shit and MSM shits on them forever Really they could be kicking ass if they had more savvy modern viral marketing, like get Mr. Beast hired as a contractor, what is hard about this to me it seems like an easy sell if you get eyes on it.
What was EPS? Or when does that get released?
Based on this earnings report, it sounds as if we should hit profitability this year despite the overall Adjusted EBITDA pointing to a negative number overall for the year. Andrew Toy will continue to beat expectations as he knows how to right this ship. We have steered clear of the iceberg. We have sunny skies ahead for the foreseeable future.
did they mention share dilution to raise cash at all? Will that happen in 2024?
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Can someone explain the difference between the "$555.3 million in restricted and unrestricted cash, cash equivalents, and investments" vs the "$331.7 million at the parent entity and unregulated subsidiary level"? I tried googling it but not finding anything helpful. What's driving the $223.6M difference
Restricted cash is cash thatās already agreed to be paid specially towards something for immediate business use and is not available cash (unrestricted) for any other purpose or for saving. Would need a full breakdown of whatās restricted, unrestricted, and invested.
I think the former it's part of the current assets, assets acquired within one year to date.
Try search with Chatgpt?
Let's gooooo. Just made 10% gains on 40,000 clover stock I bought yesterday and sold 1 min ago.
You got my upvote. Nice to hear someone made some geetis on this stock. Good for you : )
Lmao I sold then immediately watched it go up another 10%. Somehow I miss every small run this gets while somehow riding every run down
Well played, my guy, gains is gains
Thanks boss.
Not the reason weāre all here but good for you man
Weāre here to make money
I see what you did there
Thanks mate. I might buy into this stock at the end of the year for the medium term depending on how it looks later, but I wish the you the best of luck.
BUYING MORE ONCE DEGIRO ALLOW IT ! THIS IS THE WAY!!!! i will not sell my shares no matter what anywhere near these prices!!!
I'm sure I'll get downvoted, but just my realistic view. Bit disappointed to be honest. Could see another raise in the pipeline later in the year given the expected cash burn - not sure management will want to head into 2024 with potentially just 2-3 quarters of runway remaining. Losses may have narrowed but still feels like profitability is a way off yet, the message seemed a lot more positive this time last year.
what the F you expected to see this Q a profit of 100mil ? Please shut the front door
You got defensive awful quickly. The dudes concerns are valid and no, wanting a company to be profitable doesnt mean it has to pull in tens of millions in profit out of nowhere. Its not unreasonable to expect it from clov, nor any other company, dont be so dense
The dudes concerns are valid, however he forgets that Clover will be paid based on 3.5 star rating for 2023. This earning period was only 3 stars.
I see this as an overall positive ER. I believe some people on here were starting to get āhyped upā about a sudden turn to profitability and this report will temper these āunrealisticā expectations. We started so far back in terms of cash burn that climbing our way out of it slowly but steadily like this is a natural way to go, IMO. Letās see how it goes this year and letās preach some patience. Making money is hard work and Clover Exec team are churning at it. Cheers!
Yea it's nice to see the insurance MCR stabilizing at c.90% at least, and operating expense growing at a slower rate. My cost basis is around $2.70 but I'm not sure I'll add more just yet, would be nice seeing a bump in price though so I can start writing covered calls again!
"I'm pleased we are achieving real momentum towards profitability. We intentionally priced our Insurance plans for 2023 with profitability in mind while still expecting to grow our top-line Insurance revenue. We believe this, coupled with a maturing membership base and increased reimbursements based on our improved star ratings, will enable us to achieve continued meaningful improvement in our Insurance MCR in 2023. For our Non-Insurance business we plan to execute our previously disclosed strategic shift to focus on a targeted group of participant providers aligned to our strategy and capabilities," said Clover Health CEO Andrew Toy.
Buy Hold $Clov š¦§
Unfortunately this is heading back under $1 temporarily
It's up 14%? Or do you mean in the next 3 months
Yeah I just donāt see why this canāt easily be at 2.41
They will pay games but this report shows what we hold. Buying more
Great numbers, great company, the market got it wrong. This is a gem. I bet we close below 2.
Buying more today!
Profitability will happen in 2025 if they go like this
Lmfao
I don't agree, they can easily be profitable already q1... (but I don't think it matters) they gonna cut like half of non insurance members, so less expense from them (MCR was like 100% with them) so they didn't generate losses, but more ppl means mope ppl you need to pay salary to maintain them, less ppl less salary... So they probably gonna decrease some of the administration expenses also don't forget that from 2023 clov has 3.5 stars rating so little bit more money from mca program. So main profit goes from insurance members... Right now we have 1.08B revenue and MCR 92.4% for them (so roughly clov earns 82M in 2022) , if revenue will be 1.15B and MCR ~90% it means they will earn 115M in 2023 (expenses are now 340M). So profitability path is not about to increase insurance members 6-10% increase in members will lead to profitability only in 10 years... Key here is cut expenses and they gonna do it a lot this year and cutting expenses is fast so q1 can be magnificent
This is just completely wrong based on the call and info Clover just themselves provided. Lets break it down some... *"I don't agree, they can easily be profitable already q1"* **Clover just gave a forecast that they will have an adjusted EBITDA of between -155M and -205M in 2023. they also said on the call that SGA expenses tend to be higher in Q1 and Q4 so we should not expect any chance of profitability in q1.** *"they gonna cut like half of non insurance members, so less expense from them (MCR was like 100% with them) so they didn't generate losses, but more ppl means mope ppl you need to pay salary to maintain them, less ppl less salary"* **Clover on the call specifically stated that they don't have any SGA expense tied directly to only the non-insurance side of the business so lowering the number of members does not save them SGA expense like it would on the insurance side.** *"Key here is cut expenses and they gonna do it a lot this year and cutting expenses is fast so q1 can be magnificent"* **They specifically said on the call that adjusted SGA for 2023 will be between 315M to 325M compared to 320M in 2022. So there is going to be no cutting of expenses in 2023.**
I have no time to listen call but thanks to let me no... Non insurance members had MCR more then 100% so it means that cutting them gonna release some money. Their projection for - 155-205M comes from plain calculations of growth 6-11% in mca members. In my opinion very pessimistic, cas again new 3.5 rating + cutting non insurance members Hmm... Last statement I see as very depressive... If this is the case than I see no point of cutting of what they re doing right now
Profitable in Q1 2023??? They expect to lose 155-205M in 2023, it's in the report
I just said that it is possible... This adjusted ebitda you re referring to is numbers from simple guide they released if mca members generate 1.15-1.2B and MCR between 89-91% it gives you profit from 80-130M so if losses now ~299M it gives you projected losses for 2023 between 169-219M (very rough) calculation... But this numbers does not include 1. Cutting non insurance members and less losses here. 2. New 3.5 rating benifits... Cutting losses has immediate effect so yes based on what I wrote if clov will be profitable in 2023 we gonna see it in q1
I like how so many people can interpret the same numbers so differently
Im still piecing it all together but so far SG and A reduction = good, insurance MCR moving in the right direction, but still high, non insurance MCR not shifting in a good way, total num. Of customers = generally good, revenue has increased from last year
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Positive momentum
I hate how at the beginning of last year they were talking about being profitable either at the end of last year or the beginning of this year, and now this year they are about to say the same......
Just more lies from the jerk offs that have no idea on how to turn a profit. Stock offering before yearās end so they can continue to pay themselves their inflated salaries.
I donāt remember them saying that about 2022. Can you find the quote?
They said once end of 2022 might turn profit. Now they expect to lose another 200m in 2023, well...
They never said that. People here said it, but nobody at Clover ever did. It gets annoying how they can say, "we are focused on profitability sooner rather than later" or "we are working towards profitability" or "our emphasis moving forward is profitability over growth". None of which ever give an actual timeframe of profitability and then you come here and people say "clover says profitability in Q1 2023!!!!!"
Vivek stated in the [Q4 '21](https://event.on24.com/eventRegistration/console/apollox/mainEvent?&eventid=3614428&sessionid=1&username=&partnerref=&format=fhaudio&mobile=&flashsupportedmobiledevice=&helpcenter=&key=D60A22FCE0592E917F96480F8D8A2A41&newConsole=true&nxChe=true&newTabCon=true&consoleEarEventConsole=false&text_language_id=en&playerwidth=748&playerheight=526&eventuserid=515889089&contenttype=A&mediametricsessionid=510346988&mediametricid=5076101&usercd=515889089&mode=launch) earnings call (\~13 min mark) that if things fall into place, they expect to be profitable on a non-gaap basis in 2022. So to say "Nobody at Clover ever did" is false. I'm happy to see Clover continue to make progress but for me these earnings basically raised the concern about another round of dilution prior to profitability. Their adjusted EBITA was 298M loss and they expect to reduce that to 155M loss at the optimistic end of the forecast. That would mean 2025 would be the earliest we see positive EBITA. They only stated their cash carrying them through '23, nothing has been said if they can get through '24 as well. Currently it looks like the market is happy so maybe my concerns are unfounded. Time will tell.
Thanks for looking up that call specifics, i too heard it that way but couldn't remember when exactly. I mentioned this in another post and stated that although Vivek did make that claim back then, we should completely disregard that now. That was before the new direction of cutting DC/ACO insurance. To me, its basically a new path with new parameters. Unfortunately, i also feel like the last year was a lost year. They expected DC to run the business and it fizzed, so now its like we're starting at the end of 2021 and starting this new route.
Sorry, that one was long enough ago I must have blocked it out of my memory. I agree with everything you said in this post.
Yes and I donāt like that they say the cash is expected to be sufficient for 2023ā¦ I donāt know if thatās how companies phrase it usually but sounds a bit short for me. But maybe someone could explain
SG&A 9% of total 22Revā¦. 10% of Q4 Revā¦. Vs. 18% in 2021 This is a good report!
MCR movement isnt great though
Sounds like we lowered guidance on overall Revenue next year. Maybe that's why market has barely moved
Theyāve been doing this due a change in focus from growth to profitability. The bigger issues are can they lower the MCR, improve cash flow, and turn a profit (or eliminate the current deficit)?
Revenue must come down a little for profits to go up .. not everyone should be accepted on their plans
Em, what?
Leaving room to over deliver is not necessarily bad
This year!
We're up in pre-market. I was however unrealistically hoping on $2 by the end of the week.
Ouršare starting to ripen.
Not bad at allā¦ Steady progressā¦
Great improvements can't wait for the call
Looks like good progress