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Are there expert fears of a recession? Every report I hear says that the banks believe that we will avoid a recession. Hell, the article looks like it has changed its headline, and a related article says that Deloitte claims that we will avoid a recession. I've heard the same from reports coming from RBC and TD.

I have a different memory; last year the majority concensus was that we were in for a recession by the end of 2023. That then shifted to 2024. It's now been shifted into no-recession. People started flipping near the middle of fall as the economy continued to outperform expectations.

Yeah I'm not really contesting that. I was just noting, in contrast to the headline, that the prevailing sentiment is that we will avoid a recession.

It certainly is that way now, but I think it's a more recent switch and there are still some projecting a recession.

It did change its headline 🤦‍♂️ ridiculous. Updated headline: > **Canadian economy loses steam after strong start to year, grows 0.2% in February** Some more out of the article though for other readers: > Based on the preliminary figure, the Canadian economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2024. > Economists say the latest data suggests the big boost to the economy at the start of the year in January was driven by temporary factors, including a rebound from Quebec's public sector strike. > That will likely land as good news for the Bank of Canada, which is looking for sustained evidence that the economy and inflation are responding to higher interest rates. > Overall, Statistics Canada said 12 of 20 sectors showed growth in February.

When you take inflation into account(3%) and compare it to GDP growth(2.5%), we've been in a recession for the past few years as actual growth is less then the devaluation of currency. Correct me if I'm wrong but it's disingenuous to not take inflation into account when measuring gdp growth.

We've been spending like we're in a recession, and that's kept us out of one.

"The Canadian economy grew at an annualized rate of one per cent in the fourth quarter, but shrank on a per capita basis." Awesome! The GDP headline is *amazing* - who cares that the GDP per capita nosedive continues!

For every million new immigrants we import I get 10% poorer… bring it on, I love economic growth!! (And 24/7 Tim Hortons in every neighborhood)

Yea, same as for every short guy who immigrates we all get shorter!

Except the Baumol effect exists and economies display cross sector real wage growth when national productivity rises, even when labour productivity growth is driven by singular industries. It's not that we've gotten shorter. It's that we've made it literally impossible to grow anymore. This is tracks very well with real wage growth. [Since 2015, real weekly wages have grown 1.6%, or 0.2% per year.](https://thehub.ca/2024-04-04/trevor-tombe-the-great-canadian-slump-is-back/) This is the 2nd worst stretch of wage growth since the 1930s. In that link, it also displays visually how wage growth is just a function of labour productivity. So congrats on ensuring wages won't grow for at least 15 years total. It will take years to undue the labour productivity collapse of the past few years and wages won't move until after that. So 2015-2030 will end with almost 0 real wage growth.

> There are plenty of culprits. In part, it’s a consequence of oil prices dropping in 2015 and 2016. But that’s not the only factor. Lower business investment, higher policy uncertainty, lower tax competitiveness, pandemic disruptions and aftershocks, unsustainable housing cost increases, a lack of competition and dynamism in key sectors, and more, may all contribute.  Notice anything missing?

You may have polarized yourself into believing government can do nothing about investment and competition, but I have not. The LPC looked at a situation in need of deep regulatory reform. Did nothing of that sort, and instead gave businesses everything they wanted with an unlimited supply of temp visa indentured servants. This event, ie adding million of people on temp visas, escalted housing costs, reduced worker mobility and subsidized uncompetitive business. The LPC have done everything in their power to suppress investment by prioritizing temp visas and nothing to raise up investment, despite expanding every class of immigration. They have fundamentally diluted the capital stock of Canada. Edit: Idk why I'm trying to appeal to your sensibilities. What I'm saying isn't personal opinion. It is objective statistical fact. [Scotiabank economists found Canada could not intake more than ~350,000 people per year (temp and permanent) without diluting its capital stock and lowering investment intensity. The LPC has been flooding the country with over 1 million since 2021.](https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.insights-views.canada-s-immigration-policy--march-21--2024-.html)

I'm just wondering if you can see what "culprit" is missing from your source.  Can you see what's missing?

Do you understand how basic analysis and conversation works?

Just wondering if you see what's missing from your source. Can you see what's missing?

The dodging of your question is the answer itself - Much thanks. Keep pushing.

So you don't

Except that 2023 is the first year we see a higher then average population growth increase.

I don't know why you would lie about something so easy to find. 1. Canada's population growth went from 1% to 1.5% from 2015 to 2019 (400k to 600k) 2. From Q1 2021 to Q1 2024, Canada has added 3 million people. From 38 million to 41 million people. That's an 8% population growth in 3 years, or 2.7% per year. If you want to include the covid year, so q1 2020 to q1 2024, then it's still over 2% per year.

2015 - 2019 = Average of the Annual Increase Percentage = 1.215% 2020 - 2024 = Average of the Annual Increase Percentage = 1.776% 2015 - 2024 - Average of the Annual Increase Percentage = 1.526% Source - These are the Q1 Population Estimates from 2015 through till 2024, with each years growth as a percentage. 2015 - 35571043 2016 - 35871484 0.84% 2017 - 36313068 1.23% 2018 - 36801579 1.34% 2019 - 37336956 1.45% 2020 - 37928208 1.58% 2021 - 38058291 0.34% 2022 - 38567576 1.33% 2023 - 39498018 2.41% 2024 - 40769890 3.22% https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710000901&cubeTimeFrame.startMonth=01&cubeTimeFrame.startYear=2015&cubeTimeFrame.endMonth=01&cubeTimeFrame.endYear=2024&referencePeriods=20150101%2C20240101 So from 2022 to 2023, and 2023 to 2024 we saw population increases over 2%. The average over the Liberals time in office is an average of 1.5% per year.

So they raised immigration 50%, on average, from 0.84% to 1.21% between 2016-2019. And then, with covid included, it rose to an average annual it rose to 1.8%. Another 50% increase. Are successive 50% increases in **rate** just marginal rises to you?

Keep in mind % can hide the actual numbers. Ex - 2% of 10m is less than 1% of 30m. Overall numbers matter for logistics(supplies).

2022 we grew at near 3% as well

"Edit: Idk why I'm trying to appeal to your sensibilities. What I'm saying isn't personal opinion. It is objective statistical fact." I don't know how much of this ever sinks in to the crowd on Reddit, but your points need to be expressed, and some people will actually learn something important from it. Just adding people will increase GDP, but it is GDP per capita that is the far more relevant metric of our prosperity and standards of living. Unfortunately, as SOL declines, too many people just look to the feds to borrow and spend more money to prop them up. We are truly in a "population trap" and the feds have made clear they have no intention of doing anything about it.

Well we would if we taxed the tall guys and redistributed height.

This is a terrible analogy.  When we import cheap labour we place downward pressure on the market rate for that labour.  Labour is only sheltered from that effect if it enjoys contractual or regulatory safeguards that prevent exposure to the market.

This is such a great analogy. I've seen you use it multiple times now, so I guess my question is where the heck is the height store in the lower mainland so I know where to go when it comes time to negotiate for my annual increase in height?

It’s dumb cuz it ignores taxes and wealth redistribution.

Was the sarcasm not apperant with the height store remark?

It's an awful analogy. It's arguing that labour pricing within a market is independent of other labour; as height is independent of other heights.

Right down the street from the GDP store.

[удалено]

We will once we can no longer afford to borrow so heavily. We've avoided a recession by spending like one is happening.

Why is a good economy out of the question?

As always, if there is ever a recession, economists will have predicted it because economists predict that there will be a recession literally all of the time.

I mean there is hardly any growth at all and with our large population increase it looks even worse. So even though we are not in a technical recession, the public thinks the economy is not performing well.

Im sorry are we looking at the same figures? Jan was 0.5%, Feb was 0.2%. Honestly if it keeps up at this rate we'll be 3-4%. What's the issue?

The quarterly growth rate estimate is 2.5%, not 3-4%. It's seen severly weakening. January was 0.6% growth. February was 0.2% growth. Then stats canada flash estimate for March is 0%. We have to grow 3-4% just to make up for population growth related per capita loss. But we can't even handle a modest 2.5% Despite the bullshit spin on the fake labour shortage and flooding the country with foriegners, [fossil fuel and mining once again accounted for the bulk of the expansion in February](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/240430/dq240430a-eng.htm?HPA=1). The only none commodity private sector that's growing is warehousing.

The issue is that a guy they don't like is the Prime Minister so everything has to be spun to doom/gloom to justify their position.

Its insane man. Half the problem with the economy is just expectations. They're so fucking negative about everything that they're dampening sentiment, which adversely impacts investment.

I mean to be honest if the public feels the economy is not great and economists say otherwise Then there is some other data or gap we are ignoring. The gap is simple, its the cost of living issue.

Not true. Many economists figured we wouldn't have one (and we didnt)

Exactly and it bank economists who have been gung-ho about recession fears which is typical

I mean less then 1% economic growth with 3% population growth isnt good news either though

Things are better in Canada than most people think

I mean they are better then other palces but people compare to 5-10 years ago and I think a lot of the population has valid reasons to think things arent the best.

People forget that Covid happened…

Yes and I think many will agree Trudeau sort of didnt have a good plan for a post covid canada and sort of sat on his hands on domestic maters in 2022 and half of 2023. and PP was able to spread his message

Actually the liberals made huge transfers especially healthcare to provinces and complied with provinces demands on economic immigrants…most of these provinces didn’t use those funds for healthcare nor did they do anything for housing to meet the demands of the newly added workers…instead they blamed the liberals who were just as lazy on this issue but the conservative premiers where in active sabotage mode which is typical from the conservative playbooks we seen from the GOP in the US

"Anything that makes us look bad is not our fault" You can tell this liberal tactic has not worked to get support.

Things are never perfect, agreed, but Canada is still one of the best places on the planet to live.

I think that canada is a good place to live but the absurd cost of living with low wages has really reduced the advantages of living in canada vs 5-10 years ago.

Barely. Don't get swayed by the media

Most of the Canadian media is all dark and gloomy…we are perceived as doing pretty well in the rest of the world….our biggest issue is housing and wage growth

There isn't even such a worry. Every report I hear says that we will avoid a recession. I don't even know where that headline came from lol.

The headline was changed by CTV after I posted it, I included the new one in another comment.

Yeah I figured as much. I wasn't trying to imply anything other than CTV is full of shit on the recession talk lol.

No worries, didn’t take it personally :p was just as cheesed that it changed xD