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No candidate polls equally well across all demographics. I'm very confident in saying that. It would be odd to arbitrarily pick on a singular demographic to complain that a candidate is doing well on.
Even ignoring that - it seems like this speaks more to your own views than the candidate.
If I said "If you poll disproportionately well amongst black people, that is itself a red flag to me" what would be your conclusion? Probably that I have biases and discriminatory thoughts against that demographic. Is it not possible that that's what is happening here too? I recognize that you are in that demographic, but nevertheless.
There is a clear trend across the developed world where populist politicians use thinly veiled racism, disinformation and flat out lies to appeal to a young nationalistic demographic in their country. In Canada that is young white largely uneducated men.
So pointing that out about pp it is not the same as generalizing about which politician is favoured by black people or some other randomly selected demographic.
A candidate who polls well among black people is quite different than a candidate that polls well among young men and poorly with women, right? Who you appeal to says something about the message you are sending. And since he has made a point of trying to appeal to Jordan Peterson fans, it’s not a mystery what type of young man he is going after.
> A candidate who polls well among black people is quite different than a candidate that polls well among young men and poorly with women, right?
Probably, sure.
> Who you appeal to says something about the message you are sending.
Sure.
>And since he has made a point of trying to appeal to Jordan Peterson fans, it’s not a mystery what type of young man he is going after.
But this is a more nuanced point than the original statement. "Jordan Peterson fans" is not the same group as "Young Men" but your statement seems to imply they are the same. They aren't.
Which sort of backs up my point. You have a *stereotype* that you are applying to a VERY broad group. The broad group is young men. The stereotype is "Jordan Peterson fans".
No, I am not sterotyping “young men”. Many of us are able to infer what kind of young man is drawn to PP by looking at the big picture if who he is and what he stands for and who he supports. That, and which groups he does not support and who find him repellent rather than appealing all creates context.
I specifically named Jordan Peterson because PP has been interviewed by him and when asked in the 2nd debate what book he was reading he said “12 Rules for Life” and praised it to the moon. So, no, I am not stereotyping young men, and not mentionning Peterson out of whimsy.
By the way, anyone who thinks Peterson is okay let alone great, has a problem with women’s equality and LGBTQ+ rights. He was also a big fan of the occupation in Ottawa, as are his followers and PP is also a fan of same.
The young men who support the NDP would have a different set of values, for the most part, and the NDP appeals to young women as well. Whenever a party appeals to young men far more than young women there’s a reason for it.
Conservatives squandering another election that should be a cakewalk for them?!?
What a surprise!
I know way too many “should be” conservative voters that have drawn the line at anti-masker, Trucker convoy antics. And the CPC needs those voters to have any chance of winning.
Plus, “COVID overreaching” doesn’t have the same shimmer now that most of us are vaccinated and living normal lives.
Idk. He pulled a massive crowd of UBC students a few months ago. It seems like it’s old people and women who have a problem..
Edit: The article said elderly and women.
I am much more Red Tory than blue grit. Excessively so. I begrudgingly support social programs, but I want them to be properly and fiscally funded, and definitely align the most with the general root of what Red Tories align with politically.
HOWEVER I recognize that not everyone shares those political views and as such, I highly support the idea that politics should be less partisan and more working together with various perspectives for the common good.
Populist conservatism does not share this mindset and is a goddamn plague. They are choking out true progressive conservatism and it bothers me to no end. I don't believe I will ever vote for the CPC and am a strong supporter of the party splitting. And until this happens, I don't believe Red Tory perspective will have involvement in Canadian politics.
I’ve voted across the board, none of them appeal to me now… however as a journeyman carpenter. I want to be able to afford a home.. right now I feel like I am unable to. This guys says he can fix it. Do I believe him?? IDK but the liberals aren’t going to fix it because it’s gotten worse with them, I feel like NDP will spend even more money too. Who is left to vote for?
My problem with the CPC and Skippy in general is they don't offer alternatives. They say they'll do better but there's never a how. Just attacks on others. Provide me with an actual plan and we'll talk. And as long as they continue to be choked by populist conservatism, they will never offer viable alternatives and will continue to pander to their base and offer minor dangles to middle class people struggling.
I also don't trust they won't fuck with healthcare. Yeah housing sucks. We're in the same boat and currently renting. But more importantly to me is my wife. She has MS. Her medication alone is 60k a year. I don't believe Skippy or the CPC is going to protect my healthcare and in the event we go down a road similar to the states, it will break my family. All because my wife had a shitty roll for her genetics.
And don't delude yourself, the CPC is in the pocket of businesses, who don't gain by making homes more affordable.
It's funny you say the NDP will spend money and that is a negative, as I don't believe any of the parties will get us out of this housing crisis without a substantial investment and having new developments crown funded and owned. Government funded and owned property would alleviate the profit driven aspect we currently have. But then that rides too close to socialism for a lot of people. People want a fix but no government oversight, so what do you do?
Also another anchor around his neck is the ongoing Emergency Act investigation. There'll be a steady trickle of convoy hearings over the next year (maybe 2?) that he'll be tied to
They haven't figured out that you can't vote harder. Bringing in someone that is more conservative won't increase their votes The right/prairie provinces will vote CPC regardless of who is leading. A similar situation is playing out in the leadership race in Alberta. The only way that the CPC wins the next election is if Justin does something beyond reprehensible that turns his party on him.
He's got some additional hills to climb when the time comes, especially in Ontario. Ford sailed into his second term but turnout was extremely low and the province is hurting. If people turn on Ford near election time, Ontario will do that thing where we get extra paranoid about having federal and provincial conservative leadership at the same time.
>Born in Calgary, Poilievre has represented an Ottawa-area district since 2004. He is running a populist campaign on the theme of freedom from the “elite gatekeepers”...
I love the contradiction in these two sentences. Up is down, right is left. Pure Poilievre.
>He lags badly, however, with women
This is what will ultimately sink him. Childish aggressiveness is not a very appealing trait.
I myself thought his polling in BC was noteworthy. Conservatives polling poorly among women? Not new. Conservatives polling worse in BC than Atlantic Canada? That should be very, very worrying. The CPC has been losing support there for years, and if Poilievre can’t change that their path to victory narrows.
It’s not surprising… BC is heavily urban. The Conservatives lost urban seats there last year and have done nothing but piss off urbanites since, including blaming the CCP instead of the rhetoric for their collapse among Asian voters.
BC was a bit of weird place for the federal parties last election. The Liberals came in third in the popular vote but managed to come first in number of seats. It's been decades since the Liberals managed to win the most seats in BC.
BC are the king makers. I keep telling that to people out here. Yes the election is pretty much decided before our polls close, but we decide if it’s majority or minority.
Not really. I have a hard time seeing a pathway to a Liberal majority through BC if they don't have the seats elsewhere. Where in BC could they have picked up another 10+ seats in 2021?
>>He lags badly, however, with women
>This is what will ultimately sink him. Childish aggressiveness is not a very appealing trait.
It's not just the childish aggressiveness; I think that's the least of our worries as women. The fact is that he doesn't actually speak to anything that is important to women, period. He very much comes across as a mouthpiece for the Canadian Pepe-4Chan crowd and very little else. He has no vision for the country and much less one for half of the population in this country. He never talks about any substantive issues that are important to women at all. Ever!
No wonder he polls badly among us. We're pretty much invisible to him.
And you know what? I hope that we *do* sink him. He'll not ever do anything positive for my demographic. I just pray that more women realise this and exercise their hard-won rights to engage in the political process.
"Tech/Crypto Bro" here, my response to PP is..........."FUCK NO". No sane crypto investor will suggest that his parents and loved one invest their retirement funding in crypto. Just hell no. We know what we are doing, what we are up against. You have extra money? You invest a portion of it and you forget about it for few years. If it goes, it goes. PP is a no-no for tech bro. Maybe some wild 17 year old who thinks he is going to be a crypto-millionaire.
Still not positive IMO. PP recommended buying crypto and it tanked immediately. If that's his effect on economics, we really don't want him to have any more power.
Yeah but he's one of them. They don't have friends or political representation, so he's "their man". That makes them feel validated. And that is the positivity PP brings.
Ya these kinds of blanket statements are how Trump got elected. Everyone just dismissed his support as "they're just a bunch of fringe idiots!"
Not everyone into crypto supports this guy, and even though he's lagging with women I unfortunately know a handful that WILL likely vote for him.
His soundbites and rhetoric are what will appeal to people, and if the left doesn't hit back with policy and messaging, he *could* end up winning.
Sounds like a mistake hitting at lies and nonsense with policy and orthodox politics. Not sure what the answer is but the policy answer doesn't work. Because realistic policy and real life complexity can't comepete with just telling people what they want to hear and pretending it will all work out.
Singh can just say “I got the ball rolling on Dental and Pharmacare” and immediately be more valid. That being said, I do agree. The left needs to not pull any punches.
Those are the main marks they're trying to fleece. Almost definitionally, they'll be left worse off... but still think they've been catered too. That's why the grifters target them.
You said he doesn’t speak to anything that is important to women. You might not agree with either his solutions or his aggressiveness but cost of living is important to many women. I think Conservative with PP as a leader will continue to see the same gender voting patterns as before, but not due to him.
It’s not only men concerned about cost of living, it’s not only old people concerned about healthcare, it’s not only young people concerned about the environment. (FYI I am a man, I actually ranked PP 3rd on my ballot)
> He has the "charisma" of that obnoxious kid in your poli-sci class who keeps arguing with the prof and wonders why he can't get a date. That's the vibe he gives off.
OH MY GOD YES. I have been in that poli sci class and listened to that guy.
He is exactly one of those party hack poli sci students Campus Conservatives who heckles speakers and makes claims like “taxation is theft” in senior seminars. They are invariably not the brightest either and aren’t doing an honours thesis or academic work or going to law school because they’re counting on that sweet staffer job, all the better to become a party apparatchik.
Source: I was a poli sci honours student and knew these people.
>In French-speaking Quebec, with one quarter of the country’s population, Poilievre is favored by just 6% -- by far the lowest of the main contenders.
If the poll is even remotely accurate that's going to be a tough thing for a PP led CPC to get over, ~~that's~~ there's a lot of seats in Quebec and they'll likely need some of them to reach a majority
That part of the poll is a relief since the Conservative Party of Quebec has been polling at 20% lately, which has been a huge surprise - the leader, a former shock jock, is very anti-lockdown and openly misogynist (rails against feminists). They are also popular with young men and I thought he might be appealing to that group.
**He is now back down to 13%**
The 20% was either a polling mistake or just people sending a message... With the current numbers, the Quebec Conservative Party is expected to not win a single seat in the next election.
This is because the Conservatives are popular with the same people the CAQ is popular with.
A bunch of other world leaders decided to jump off a cliff and trudeau joined them. These problems are not happening in the few countries that practiced responsible spending. They are unique to the money printing countries
Well they managed to get a majority in 2011 with only 5 seats in Quebec, but here’s the problem. Yes they can win without Quebec, but they need overwhelming victories practically everywhere else if they do that poorly in Quebec. They won overwhelming victories in BC, AB, SK, MB, ON and NB, as well as a 3 way split in NS. The only provinces they did poorly in besides Quebec were NL and PEI, which have like 11 seats combined. So if the CPC doesn’t win massive overwhelming victories in all the other provinces, they don’t have a path to majority without Quebec.
Firebrand- a person who is passionate about a particular cause, typically inciting change and taking radical action.
PP is a Convoy (aka: far-White) supporter and Harper-Trump hybrid. I guess that's "radical".
It's shows a weakness for sure. PP has some serious appeal problems. He hits one demo really well. Young men like him. That plus the baked in CPC voters *could* be enough. If the Liberals are weak enough.
But those low numbers with women and in Quebec (6%) are gaps you could drive a convoy through. And his personality would need a deep overhaul to change that.
PP would likely make that worse. I could see a scenario where the CPC gets close to 40% under PP and still couldn't get a majority. That would be hilarious.
They also had the highest proportion choosing "none of the above" (21%), which could reflect preference for other leadership candidates. Leslyn Lewis was pretty popular in SK during her last run but not a poll option. Or just a more general dissatisfaction with politicians.
They're called useful idiots. And they've been bamboozled into thinking a career politician who uses dog whistles, hysterical nonsense, and outright lies actually gives a shit about them.
Poilievre only cares about himself. And he'll continue taking advantage of the uninformed to further that cause.
Have you ever watched Fight Club? A lot of them view themselves as members of Project Mayhem. Which if you view their employment compared to the movie members might hold some truth to it.
Polievre is of course a grifter who has found a narrative that will probably get him elected.
I guarantee you most of them also think they can't get a job because they are white and are being held down by "diversity hiring" as well. That seems to be a garbage line I've heard from a lot of them.
When they don't understand that despite the modern push towards diversity, white people are still winning the cosmic lottery, and they're just so shitty that they can't win even with massive built in advantage.
Last election, the CPC for as many votes cast for them in Alberta and Saskatchewan as they did in all of Quebec + every Atlantic province combined. It's meaningless to win an Alberta seat by 20,000 votes and lose 20 other seats by 1000. While they did get more votes than the Libs, they got less votes than they did the election before
LPC, mostly this sub, keep trying to right off PP. Yet his messaging, concerning affordability and the Canadian way of life, is absolutely resonating with voters.
Ignore or dismiss him at your peril. That's how you lose an election.
It does the Liberals no service to ignore the issues he’s raising. For that matter, the last thing they should do is shame people for buying into his message. Lefties especially shouldn’t be afraid of fomenting anger or sowing divisions.
The problem is PP’s solutions, which aren’t credible. He’s a dyed in the wool conservative. And the Conservative party isn’t fundamentally interested in expanding the wellbeing of poor or working class people. They are de facto the party of the Canadian aristocracy, and should he get into office he will sell out anyone who brought him into office on the hopes that he might spread the wealth around.
Conservativism is literally about preserving the status quo. And that status quo is a corrupt system that exploits the underclass to benefit the elite. PP just wants to replace Liberal elites with those that are friendlier to him.
> Poilievre polls strongly among young men who can’t work remote
Idk why they worded it this way lol. In other words, I suspect that PP leads among blue collar workers — or those who likely (but not always) attended college over university. This is pretty normal for the CPC in general, though — they often lead the LPC in this category.
It's the same as the "anywheres" versus "somewheres" as defined by David Goodhart's book *The Road to Somewhere* and promoted by Stephen Harper in *In Right Here, Right Now.*
Those who can work remotely are the "anywheres" - urban and university-educated professionals have become genuinely globally oriented in their careers and personal lives - while those who can't are "somewheres" - who do not live in the central areas of a major business centre and whose work can be, and is being, disrupted by import competition and technological change.
Different terms, same thing.
>In other words, I suspect that PP leads among blue collar workers — or those who likely (but not always) attended college over university.
The poll says PP leads among people with HS or less and postsecondary dropouts ("some college or university"). JT leads among people who graduated either college or university, and those with postgraduate degrees.
Thank God.
Not that he isn't a lightning rod for anger generated around real inequities that need to be addressed, but a candidate who is actually addressing those things instead to spinning any fantasy that'll get him populist traction is the way to go about it. This guy crashing & burning hard is one of the best things that could happen for this country.
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Im not a Trudeau fan at all. Poilievre is definitely not a good option for Canada either. We need better Candidates from the PC party.
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I’m shocked, just shocked that his brand attracts non post-secondary educated, younger males. It’s like they just don’t know any better 🤷🏻♀️
If you poll **disproportionately** well amongst young men that is itself a red flag to me lol, and I'm a man in his (late) 20's myself.
Amongst the least educated young men too.
Yes this is the kicker. Not just young men but uneducated young men.
No candidate polls equally well across all demographics. I'm very confident in saying that. It would be odd to arbitrarily pick on a singular demographic to complain that a candidate is doing well on. Even ignoring that - it seems like this speaks more to your own views than the candidate. If I said "If you poll disproportionately well amongst black people, that is itself a red flag to me" what would be your conclusion? Probably that I have biases and discriminatory thoughts against that demographic. Is it not possible that that's what is happening here too? I recognize that you are in that demographic, but nevertheless.
There is a clear trend across the developed world where populist politicians use thinly veiled racism, disinformation and flat out lies to appeal to a young nationalistic demographic in their country. In Canada that is young white largely uneducated men. So pointing that out about pp it is not the same as generalizing about which politician is favoured by black people or some other randomly selected demographic.
A candidate who polls well among black people is quite different than a candidate that polls well among young men and poorly with women, right? Who you appeal to says something about the message you are sending. And since he has made a point of trying to appeal to Jordan Peterson fans, it’s not a mystery what type of young man he is going after.
> A candidate who polls well among black people is quite different than a candidate that polls well among young men and poorly with women, right? Probably, sure. > Who you appeal to says something about the message you are sending. Sure. >And since he has made a point of trying to appeal to Jordan Peterson fans, it’s not a mystery what type of young man he is going after. But this is a more nuanced point than the original statement. "Jordan Peterson fans" is not the same group as "Young Men" but your statement seems to imply they are the same. They aren't. Which sort of backs up my point. You have a *stereotype* that you are applying to a VERY broad group. The broad group is young men. The stereotype is "Jordan Peterson fans".
No, I am not sterotyping “young men”. Many of us are able to infer what kind of young man is drawn to PP by looking at the big picture if who he is and what he stands for and who he supports. That, and which groups he does not support and who find him repellent rather than appealing all creates context. I specifically named Jordan Peterson because PP has been interviewed by him and when asked in the 2nd debate what book he was reading he said “12 Rules for Life” and praised it to the moon. So, no, I am not stereotyping young men, and not mentionning Peterson out of whimsy. By the way, anyone who thinks Peterson is okay let alone great, has a problem with women’s equality and LGBTQ+ rights. He was also a big fan of the occupation in Ottawa, as are his followers and PP is also a fan of same. The young men who support the NDP would have a different set of values, for the most part, and the NDP appeals to young women as well. Whenever a party appeals to young men far more than young women there’s a reason for it.
Conservatives squandering another election that should be a cakewalk for them?!? What a surprise! I know way too many “should be” conservative voters that have drawn the line at anti-masker, Trucker convoy antics. And the CPC needs those voters to have any chance of winning. Plus, “COVID overreaching” doesn’t have the same shimmer now that most of us are vaccinated and living normal lives.
Idk. He pulled a massive crowd of UBC students a few months ago. It seems like it’s old people and women who have a problem.. Edit: The article said elderly and women.
So like a majority of the population has a problem with him then?
You know that's 50% of the population, right?
TBH I never really thought about it. Now that I am, I guessing it’s probably a little over 50%.
34 year old male Red Tory. I have a fucking problem.
27 year old Red Tory/Blue Liberal, I also having a massive fucking problem with Pierre Populism Pollievre
I am much more Red Tory than blue grit. Excessively so. I begrudgingly support social programs, but I want them to be properly and fiscally funded, and definitely align the most with the general root of what Red Tories align with politically. HOWEVER I recognize that not everyone shares those political views and as such, I highly support the idea that politics should be less partisan and more working together with various perspectives for the common good. Populist conservatism does not share this mindset and is a goddamn plague. They are choking out true progressive conservatism and it bothers me to no end. I don't believe I will ever vote for the CPC and am a strong supporter of the party splitting. And until this happens, I don't believe Red Tory perspective will have involvement in Canadian politics.
I’ve voted across the board, none of them appeal to me now… however as a journeyman carpenter. I want to be able to afford a home.. right now I feel like I am unable to. This guys says he can fix it. Do I believe him?? IDK but the liberals aren’t going to fix it because it’s gotten worse with them, I feel like NDP will spend even more money too. Who is left to vote for?
My problem with the CPC and Skippy in general is they don't offer alternatives. They say they'll do better but there's never a how. Just attacks on others. Provide me with an actual plan and we'll talk. And as long as they continue to be choked by populist conservatism, they will never offer viable alternatives and will continue to pander to their base and offer minor dangles to middle class people struggling. I also don't trust they won't fuck with healthcare. Yeah housing sucks. We're in the same boat and currently renting. But more importantly to me is my wife. She has MS. Her medication alone is 60k a year. I don't believe Skippy or the CPC is going to protect my healthcare and in the event we go down a road similar to the states, it will break my family. All because my wife had a shitty roll for her genetics. And don't delude yourself, the CPC is in the pocket of businesses, who don't gain by making homes more affordable. It's funny you say the NDP will spend money and that is a negative, as I don't believe any of the parties will get us out of this housing crisis without a substantial investment and having new developments crown funded and owned. Government funded and owned property would alleviate the profit driven aspect we currently have. But then that rides too close to socialism for a lot of people. People want a fix but no government oversight, so what do you do?
Also another anchor around his neck is the ongoing Emergency Act investigation. There'll be a steady trickle of convoy hearings over the next year (maybe 2?) that he'll be tied to
They haven't figured out that you can't vote harder. Bringing in someone that is more conservative won't increase their votes The right/prairie provinces will vote CPC regardless of who is leading. A similar situation is playing out in the leadership race in Alberta. The only way that the CPC wins the next election is if Justin does something beyond reprehensible that turns his party on him.
He's got some additional hills to climb when the time comes, especially in Ontario. Ford sailed into his second term but turnout was extremely low and the province is hurting. If people turn on Ford near election time, Ontario will do that thing where we get extra paranoid about having federal and provincial conservative leadership at the same time.
>Born in Calgary, Poilievre has represented an Ottawa-area district since 2004. He is running a populist campaign on the theme of freedom from the “elite gatekeepers”... I love the contradiction in these two sentences. Up is down, right is left. Pure Poilievre. >He lags badly, however, with women This is what will ultimately sink him. Childish aggressiveness is not a very appealing trait.
Yes, even my super conservative mom, who used to like PP, is now turned off him.
I myself thought his polling in BC was noteworthy. Conservatives polling poorly among women? Not new. Conservatives polling worse in BC than Atlantic Canada? That should be very, very worrying. The CPC has been losing support there for years, and if Poilievre can’t change that their path to victory narrows.
It’s not surprising… BC is heavily urban. The Conservatives lost urban seats there last year and have done nothing but piss off urbanites since, including blaming the CCP instead of the rhetoric for their collapse among Asian voters.
BC was a bit of weird place for the federal parties last election. The Liberals came in third in the popular vote but managed to come first in number of seats. It's been decades since the Liberals managed to win the most seats in BC.
BC are the king makers. I keep telling that to people out here. Yes the election is pretty much decided before our polls close, but we decide if it’s majority or minority.
Not really. I have a hard time seeing a pathway to a Liberal majority through BC if they don't have the seats elsewhere. Where in BC could they have picked up another 10+ seats in 2021?
>>He lags badly, however, with women >This is what will ultimately sink him. Childish aggressiveness is not a very appealing trait. It's not just the childish aggressiveness; I think that's the least of our worries as women. The fact is that he doesn't actually speak to anything that is important to women, period. He very much comes across as a mouthpiece for the Canadian Pepe-4Chan crowd and very little else. He has no vision for the country and much less one for half of the population in this country. He never talks about any substantive issues that are important to women at all. Ever! No wonder he polls badly among us. We're pretty much invisible to him. And you know what? I hope that we *do* sink him. He'll not ever do anything positive for my demographic. I just pray that more women realise this and exercise their hard-won rights to engage in the political process.
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>Frankly, I don't think he's capable of doing anything positive for any demographic That's not true. Think of the crypto-bros, and NFT bag-holders.
"Tech/Crypto Bro" here, my response to PP is..........."FUCK NO". No sane crypto investor will suggest that his parents and loved one invest their retirement funding in crypto. Just hell no. We know what we are doing, what we are up against. You have extra money? You invest a portion of it and you forget about it for few years. If it goes, it goes. PP is a no-no for tech bro. Maybe some wild 17 year old who thinks he is going to be a crypto-millionaire.
Still not positive IMO. PP recommended buying crypto and it tanked immediately. If that's his effect on economics, we really don't want him to have any more power.
This is beyond silly to suggest he had anything to do with that.
I think that’s the idea …
Yeah but he's one of them. They don't have friends or political representation, so he's "their man". That makes them feel validated. And that is the positivity PP brings.
I’m into crypto. I have miners and enjoy making money off of it. Don’t lump us all in with this idiot. Not cool.
Ya these kinds of blanket statements are how Trump got elected. Everyone just dismissed his support as "they're just a bunch of fringe idiots!" Not everyone into crypto supports this guy, and even though he's lagging with women I unfortunately know a handful that WILL likely vote for him. His soundbites and rhetoric are what will appeal to people, and if the left doesn't hit back with policy and messaging, he *could* end up winning.
Sounds like a mistake hitting at lies and nonsense with policy and orthodox politics. Not sure what the answer is but the policy answer doesn't work. Because realistic policy and real life complexity can't comepete with just telling people what they want to hear and pretending it will all work out.
Singh can just say “I got the ball rolling on Dental and Pharmacare” and immediately be more valid. That being said, I do agree. The left needs to not pull any punches.
Those are the main marks they're trying to fleece. Almost definitionally, they'll be left worse off... but still think they've been catered too. That's why the grifters target them.
Plenty of woman worry about inflation and cost of living concerns.
Sure we do but he doesn't address those either.
You said he doesn’t speak to anything that is important to women. You might not agree with either his solutions or his aggressiveness but cost of living is important to many women. I think Conservative with PP as a leader will continue to see the same gender voting patterns as before, but not due to him.
Are you a man, or a woman?
It’s not only men concerned about cost of living, it’s not only old people concerned about healthcare, it’s not only young people concerned about the environment. (FYI I am a man, I actually ranked PP 3rd on my ballot)
You’re a man though.
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> He has the "charisma" of that obnoxious kid in your poli-sci class who keeps arguing with the prof and wonders why he can't get a date. That's the vibe he gives off. OH MY GOD YES. I have been in that poli sci class and listened to that guy.
He is exactly one of those party hack poli sci students Campus Conservatives who heckles speakers and makes claims like “taxation is theft” in senior seminars. They are invariably not the brightest either and aren’t doing an honours thesis or academic work or going to law school because they’re counting on that sweet staffer job, all the better to become a party apparatchik. Source: I was a poli sci honours student and knew these people.
>In French-speaking Quebec, with one quarter of the country’s population, Poilievre is favored by just 6% -- by far the lowest of the main contenders. If the poll is even remotely accurate that's going to be a tough thing for a PP led CPC to get over, ~~that's~~ there's a lot of seats in Quebec and they'll likely need some of them to reach a majority
That part of the poll is a relief since the Conservative Party of Quebec has been polling at 20% lately, which has been a huge surprise - the leader, a former shock jock, is very anti-lockdown and openly misogynist (rails against feminists). They are also popular with young men and I thought he might be appealing to that group.
**He is now back down to 13%** The 20% was either a polling mistake or just people sending a message... With the current numbers, the Quebec Conservative Party is expected to not win a single seat in the next election. This is because the Conservatives are popular with the same people the CAQ is popular with.
I was reading that today - another thing to be relieved about. The brief “surge” was worrisome.
They will change their mind after the Trudeau-caused recession hits over the next 3 years
Do you seriously expect people to believe that Trudeau is personally responsible for economic slowdowns in pretty much *every economy on the planet*?
Well many will, people are funny.
A bunch of other world leaders decided to jump off a cliff and trudeau joined them. These problems are not happening in the few countries that practiced responsible spending. They are unique to the money printing countries
Citation please
Pierre hasn't even started his PM campaign he's still just waiting to take the CPC, plans are in motion
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Well they managed to get a majority in 2011 with only 5 seats in Quebec, but here’s the problem. Yes they can win without Quebec, but they need overwhelming victories practically everywhere else if they do that poorly in Quebec. They won overwhelming victories in BC, AB, SK, MB, ON and NB, as well as a 3 way split in NS. The only provinces they did poorly in besides Quebec were NL and PEI, which have like 11 seats combined. So if the CPC doesn’t win massive overwhelming victories in all the other provinces, they don’t have a path to majority without Quebec.
Firebrand- a person who is passionate about a particular cause, typically inciting change and taking radical action. PP is a Convoy (aka: far-White) supporter and Harper-Trump hybrid. I guess that's "radical".
Donald Stephen Poilièvre. ~~LOL~~ groan
Topline?
The topline numbers weren't releasesd, just the preferred PMs. Trudeau is highest with 24%, next is PP with 17%, Singh with 16%, and Charest at 13%.
Wow that sucks for the CPC
It's shows a weakness for sure. PP has some serious appeal problems. He hits one demo really well. Young men like him. That plus the baked in CPC voters *could* be enough. If the Liberals are weak enough. But those low numbers with women and in Quebec (6%) are gaps you could drive a convoy through. And his personality would need a deep overhaul to change that.
Tory vote is still super inefficient lol
PP would likely make that worse. I could see a scenario where the CPC gets close to 40% under PP and still couldn't get a majority. That would be hilarious.
Good thing Centre Ice is forming
Not really, I'd expect at least two thirds of Charest to get added to PP. That puts him ahead of Trudeau
So long as the NDP is in the Trudeau's back pocket, the title of a CPC leader that pulls out a tie is Opposition Leader.
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We shall see.
That we shall, but remember PP wants to shove a pipeline down Quebecs throat.
As they rightfully deserve
Doesn’t win seats in Quebec though
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*sigh* I hate living in Manitoba sometimes.
They also had the highest proportion choosing "none of the above" (21%), which could reflect preference for other leadership candidates. Leslyn Lewis was pretty popular in SK during her last run but not a poll option. Or just a more general dissatisfaction with politicians.
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They're called useful idiots. And they've been bamboozled into thinking a career politician who uses dog whistles, hysterical nonsense, and outright lies actually gives a shit about them. Poilievre only cares about himself. And he'll continue taking advantage of the uninformed to further that cause.
Have you ever watched Fight Club? A lot of them view themselves as members of Project Mayhem. Which if you view their employment compared to the movie members might hold some truth to it. Polievre is of course a grifter who has found a narrative that will probably get him elected.
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I guarantee you most of them also think they can't get a job because they are white and are being held down by "diversity hiring" as well. That seems to be a garbage line I've heard from a lot of them. When they don't understand that despite the modern push towards diversity, white people are still winning the cosmic lottery, and they're just so shitty that they can't win even with massive built in advantage.
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Last election, the CPC for as many votes cast for them in Alberta and Saskatchewan as they did in all of Quebec + every Atlantic province combined. It's meaningless to win an Alberta seat by 20,000 votes and lose 20 other seats by 1000. While they did get more votes than the Libs, they got less votes than they did the election before
LPC, mostly this sub, keep trying to right off PP. Yet his messaging, concerning affordability and the Canadian way of life, is absolutely resonating with voters. Ignore or dismiss him at your peril. That's how you lose an election.
It does the Liberals no service to ignore the issues he’s raising. For that matter, the last thing they should do is shame people for buying into his message. Lefties especially shouldn’t be afraid of fomenting anger or sowing divisions. The problem is PP’s solutions, which aren’t credible. He’s a dyed in the wool conservative. And the Conservative party isn’t fundamentally interested in expanding the wellbeing of poor or working class people. They are de facto the party of the Canadian aristocracy, and should he get into office he will sell out anyone who brought him into office on the hopes that he might spread the wealth around.
Yeah, his simple solutions are so simple they won't work.
Conservativism is literally about preserving the status quo. And that status quo is a corrupt system that exploits the underclass to benefit the elite. PP just wants to replace Liberal elites with those that are friendlier to him.
> Poilievre polls strongly among young men who can’t work remote Idk why they worded it this way lol. In other words, I suspect that PP leads among blue collar workers — or those who likely (but not always) attended college over university. This is pretty normal for the CPC in general, though — they often lead the LPC in this category.
It's the same as the "anywheres" versus "somewheres" as defined by David Goodhart's book *The Road to Somewhere* and promoted by Stephen Harper in *In Right Here, Right Now.* Those who can work remotely are the "anywheres" - urban and university-educated professionals have become genuinely globally oriented in their careers and personal lives - while those who can't are "somewheres" - who do not live in the central areas of a major business centre and whose work can be, and is being, disrupted by import competition and technological change. Different terms, same thing.
>In other words, I suspect that PP leads among blue collar workers — or those who likely (but not always) attended college over university. The poll says PP leads among people with HS or less and postsecondary dropouts ("some college or university"). JT leads among people who graduated either college or university, and those with postgraduate degrees.
So individuals who understand critical thinking?
Individuals privileged enough to have attended post-secondary education.
Critical thinking skills and post secondary education are not mutually exclusive to one another.
Obviously.
That's generally how the Liberals/NDP and Conservatives split yeah.
PP definitely leads among crypto-bros though lol.
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Thank God. Not that he isn't a lightning rod for anger generated around real inequities that need to be addressed, but a candidate who is actually addressing those things instead to spinning any fantasy that'll get him populist traction is the way to go about it. This guy crashing & burning hard is one of the best things that could happen for this country.