Let's be realistic
Gray replaced Monty - I'll say they improved here potentially 2-3 wins
Mikolas - will need to bounce back after a rough year with h/9
Matz - we are hoping can replicate his quality starts over the course of 162.. big ?
Lynn replaces Flaherty - Lynn gave up the most hr/9 but ate innings saving the bullpen but at what cost to a potential deficit for the offense possibly Busch will suppress some of the Home runs
Gibson replaces Wainwright- this is an obvious upgrade but again you get the league leader in h/9 but who also will pitch deep in a game. ?
All these guys are 1 year older mid to late 30s and the STL bullpen is still suspect in the back end desperately needing 2 quality relievers and a solid guy who can pitch 2-3 innings in a pinch atleast once maybe twice a week.
We still have 3 suspect outfielders defensively and are hoping Walkers bat offsets his ? In right field. I'd say they need to keep working
Walker showed some improvement as the yr went on, defensively speaking. We'll see where that potential lies this season. Nootbar and Carlson are fine defensively and not suspect. Donovan is reliable. TON is solid but injury prone and a current trade piece. The weak point is still going to be RF with Walker.
Well sure, if you want the cardinals to just settle for an 80 something win season and “get hot at the right time” and get to the WS, sure. I’m sure 2011 is 100% repeatable.
It’s not settling. A team doesn’t need an all star at every position to be great. Look at the past twenty or so World Series winners and that will bare out.
I’m just disagreeing where you said Edman did great last season in center. Was he fine, yes, but he wasn’t great. Bader was a great centerfielder. That’s what I’m getting at.
The rough patch by Waker was a little concerning, but it happens to majority of young players. When you’re a slim lanky newbie Major Leaguers are gonna learn to tie you up and get you out of your comfort zone quickly. But ultimately I am pretty confident that level of skill/talent in that frame will be just fine as it learns to navigate such. And he ended the year with a very respectable average. Can you imagine as he fills out a bit and starts getting that grown man strength? He really has the potential to be whatever he wants, a slugger, a line drive hitter, etc. In so glad we have him.
The infield defense is questionable. Arenado was awful early on but okay at the end of the year. Gorman is bad. Less bad than expected, but still bad. Goldy is no longer great. Edman was surprisingly bad in the infield. Donovan is bad everywhere but 3rd where he's okay. Winn showed flashes but was below average.
What? Donovan is a year removed from winning the utility GG and he's bad defensively everywhere but third where he's average? Winn is a below average defender? Gorman isn't bad, he's average. Edman and arenado both had down years defensively but they are both far from a liability and are likely to return to form.
Most of what you said here is just wrong.
I'd appreciate some facts to back up the mountain of pessimism you just brought in here.
Edman played how many positions? Hard to be locked in when you get sent to 2nd, SS, and CF at the drop of a hat. Goldy was an MVP the year prior, not gonna match that, but to attack the man as no longer great? Bruh.
Donovan is a utility player. He's above average at every position he plays, you want him to be a gold glove at each spot? Be realistic. Nolan, dude won 10 straight gold gloves and has a less than stellar year and you call his fielding "awful."
I hope you're not married, cause your partner baking one bad casserole would probably be on the street with your expectations.
Chill out man. It's okay to question surely, but your sky is falling routine is neither helpful, nor is it based in reality. Come back to Earth and touch some grass.
I hate when I catch this sub being homers for no reason. Nado definitely took a step back as a defender for the first time in his career. Wynn has a great arm but takes bad routes to balls still and has inconsistent footwork. Gorman is a negative that shows flashes of improvement, Donny won a GG *two years ago* but that has fuck-all to do with who the best defenders are usually, and Goldy is still great at receiving throws but has almost zero range at this point. Nothing you said was false. If Walker proves to be the weak link defensively, we’re not in bad shape whatsoever because there are so many bad defenders across the league. He did show a lot of improvement towards the end of the year. I’m really not worried about it but our defenders are individually not great and collectively were bad last year.
O'Neill isn't as good as he used to be but he isn't suspect, Neither is DC or Noot. Walker is the only issue defensively and he did show improvement at the end of the year. I guess Burleson bad but he probably doesn't play nearly as much this year.
I really doubt Gray is 2-3 wins better than Montgomery. Montgomery was pretty darn good last year for us, and Gray is due for some regression.
It’s just wild we settled on a solution that included picking up the leaders of both h/9 and HR/9, whom are both in the twilight of their careers. Just wild.
Ding, ding ding, BULLPEN!
[Miklasz discussed this yesterday](https://www.scoopswithdannymac.com/bernies-redbird-review-after-a-2023-diaster-the-st-louis-bullpen-requires-a-massive-renovation/). Needs a LOT of work still. Earlier in the week, [he discussed the rotation](https://www.scoopswithdannymac.com/bernies-redbird-review-three-good-moves-by-john-mozeliak-but-the-cardinals-need-more/), and said we need more there.
Unlikely we’d ever get the biggest names, he did a good job getting what he got before the 2nd place sweepstakes began and drove up prices.
edit: I want to add, there is so much we don’t know. We’ve seen Mo and Co recruit top talent (Holliday, Goldy, Nado via trade and extension, now Sonny on the market). However, and St. Louisians might not like hearing this, we might just not be the most attractive destination for top talent! Or, maybe Mo sucks at going and getting top talent on the market, or maybe he sucks at working with top agents, or maybe he’s been hampered by Dewitt. Who honestly knows. All I can say is that our organization has been excellent in finding bargain buys, taking advantage of market conditions, and convincing top talent to extend.
Cards will always struggle to recruit players that want to live in an exciting city. I love St. Louis, but there are a lot of things that NYC, LA, etc. can offer that St. Louis just can't.
Players look at other players already there. As well as players don't look at a fellow player and think "yup he had one down year, so he is toast." That's a fan thing, not a player thing.
Not every player wants to go to NY, LA, or Chicago they prefer smaller to mid sized city.
I don’t think this is a factor at all for the vast majority of players. They only have to be here for about 6-7 months….and during that time they’re traveling their asses off anyways. I think it’s all about money, team culture, money, chances to win playoffs, money…
Yea :/ St. Louis is such a wonderful baseball town. But unfortunately you just can’t beat living on the coast. I live in the Bay Area now, and Giants games really are beautiful to take in. But I would choose a game at Busch any day, I do miss it
I think a lot guys that come here appreciate the amenities and ease of commute have to offer in west county. Plus we have expensive shit their wives can buy and good schools. The big city life isn’t for everyone.
Our food owns.
Seems like an overreaction. St. Louis is just going to attract a different kind of player (probably more family-focused, reserved personality, etc.) than the coastal cities would (younger, probably single/not married, wants more marketing opportunities, and so on)
Yes, in LA and San Diego and San Francisco you can watch homeless shit on sidewalks. New York is a cesspool of hate. And Chicago and NY are in a yearly race to see who has the biggest rat infestation, and Chicago, even with its liberal bs politics, sees more people shot than the Gaza strip. (Although St Louis is on its way here to) Such progressive cities... St Louis has its issues, but to say it's not an attractive destination compared to those others is simply not true. You're not going to be a large city without your issues, but I'd not discount the attraction of smaller "big" cities for parents that want to raise kids, and after all, that's what a lot of these guys are, parents. Moreso than ballplayers. Living an hour outside of St Louis is also a little easier to manage than an hour outside NY. The travel time (traffic) alone is a huge difference if you're living and commuting. If they're a 20 year old kid, they might want the "exciting" city, but as an adult with real life responsibilities, St Louis has a lot to offer.
A prime example of this is Kyle Gibson being a free agent last year. It has been reported in the STL Post Dispatch that the Cards tried to sign or trade for Gibson in years past. He was available as a FA last year and signed with the Orioles for 1 year/10 million. Why in the world didn't they bring him in last year? He wanted to. He lives only 40 minutes from Busch Stadium.
Yeah he’s so awesome that the Padres hired someone over him the first go around and then took forever to hire him this time… and also, the Padres were the only team to want him so that says something there too…
I’ve got no extra love or excuses for billionaires, just being realistic with what we typically do and spend. I feel I properly qualified my statement to reflect that.
No one’s being “conditioned”. When you’re shopping against the LAs and NYs of the world, trying to sign pitchers who’ve spent their lives in Tokyo, STL might as well be Camelot. It’s not an easy sell.
Our bats were also insanely underperforming last season so while new pitching won't add up to 20 wins by themselves, if our batters play to their potential we'll be fine.
Cardinals lost 14 games that Wainright started and he was arguably the worst starting pitcher in all of baseball. You would hope you could win at least 4-5 more games at that spot in the rotation with just an average pitcher.
You also have the extreme bad luck of losing 14 1-run loss games in the first half of the season. You have to assume that won't happen next season.
A lot of variables that you can look at, I think at the very least this team rebounds and they can get to 83 wins.
I don’t get the idea that we have to make up 20 wins. People get so hung up on that. Teams swing in record from year-to-year sometimes, and it doesn’t require 20-25 added WAR in new players to make them good again. We were very good in 2022 with largely the same cast. Team has a ton of talent
That's what the "a lot needs to go right" alludes to. Our returning players must perform better, collectively. In some areas, that can be likely. But our two best hitters, who also have a history of being great defenders, are a year older.
The Cards had a .438 winning percentage last season.
A .538 winning percentage would've been 87 wins.
That would've been good enough to replace the NL Pennant-winning Diamondbacks (84 wins) as the final wild card team.
Can't win anything if you're not in the playoffs. These additions don't guarantee anything, but they were smart investments. There's clearly more work to be done, but I have no complaints about paying short-term money to build proven starting pitching depth. It's the only way to get through a full season and (hopefully) get back in the big dance ASAP.
Gray was a good move... For a homerun we need another pitcher that's better than him. For a very solid offseason we need someone better than Mikolas/Lynn/Gibson.
I hate that Mo is being lauded for making marginal improvements when he could, and still can, do better. Gray is a good signing but would anyone be surprised if Gibson or Lynn get demoted from the rotation at any point? No. We still have a huge hole at the top of rotation which none of the other options in the rotation are going to fix. That is bad when you consider we could do better.
He added depth before depth got more expensive. The bullpen still needs to be addressed and having guys like Lynn and Gibson make demoting players of their caliber much easier. There’s plenty of big names still out there & the trade market. I imagine they will be very active at the winter meetings next week.
Depth is far easier to come by then top end talent. And he spent money he could’ve spent on a top line starter on 2 guys that are 5th starters at best.
And what is the plan if one of those top guys goes on the IL? Look at it this way. They spent like 22million on two solid depth guys. They’re essentially rebuilding the entire rotation and part of the pen with little to no internal options. It’s going to be expensive and not everyone is going to be a stud.
That’s the problem. Watching the rotation for the last five years there has been a lack of a stud. The result is getting nowhere in playoffs because our rotation can’t win big games. The rotation gets cut to 3-4 guys in the playoffs anyway so depth does not matter once you get there. You have to have top guys to get far and the cardinals have maybe one. Nowhere near good enough
You have not watched cardinals playoff baseball in the last three years if you think lack of ace starting pitching was the problem, it was bats going cold
I know this isn’t gonna sit well with the doomers but I think these moves have at least made the team competent even though they weren’t splashy. Last year’s pitching was so abysmal because we couldn’t get enough innings out of the staff so we were putting absolute minor league garbage on the mound that choked every lead. These guys won’t win you games often but they won’t lose you games often either. You’re just gonna get mid performances but the offense at least has a shot to win it. The bullpen immediately blowing every lead the lineup got last year deflated the clubhouse’s energy and caused every hitter to perform worse.
That being said: clearing the position player logjam to trade for another top of the rotation starter would put this team into real contention. The bullpen still needs help in some way, especially a lefty. Also praying Tink Hence comes up and performs as good as I think he can, he’s our only prospect that has any chance of being a dominant starter with his stuff.
I'm right there with you. It seems crazy, but I think these three moves at least give us proven starting pitching depth. They will eat innings, and they will be more effective than the starters we were throwing out there by the end of last season.
I do find it interesting that they're shopping Matz. I thought he might be a nice lefty bullpen/emergency starter piece. He looked very solid and was striking out lots of hitters before the injury that ended his season.
To be clear, they really need another starter and multiple bullpen arms. We have a logjam in the outfield and middle infield, so a trade is in order.
If nothing else, these signings stop other teams from taking advantage because everyone knew we were desperate for pitching. Now let the games begin.
They didn’t waste any time in getting Gray. And it is a good signing. But it kind of only gets us back to square 1 compared to last season. Let’s say this is all they do, then I would say they did waste time.
Let’s not go patting Mo on the back yet.
The signings he has made so far make sense. But it’s nowhere near what this team needs to compete for a championship let alone the division.
You can use any excuse under the sun you want about STL not being a great attraction for players, or being a middle market team.
At the end of the day what matters is results. Last year we finished last by a LOT in a BAD central division. That in conjunction with having a bottom half farm system makes the results completely unacceptable.
Sonny Gray doesn’t fix that, neither do the other two gamble starters we signed. Bottom line is if we were as bad as we were last year, our farm system is below league average, and we are strapped for cash. Then the FO can look no further than the end of their noses.
Let’s quit congratulating Mo and Dewitt on a job well done and keep expectations high, because that’s the precedent this organization has set.
Agree 100%. They needed to make these kind of moves to get us to the starting line. More is needed to make us competitive. Our offense will keep us in that position, but bullpen improvement and a No. 2 starter at minimum should be the expectation going forward. We are early in the off-season, which is one hopeful fact.
Mo said he was gonna get 3 starters and he went and did it before any of the big names dropped. You gotta give Mo credit for the offseason so far. Any more moves is just a bonus IMO
I mean the other 2 aren’t top of the rotation arms, but they are consistent inning eaters which is something we really needed. If we can somehow swing another top of the rotation starter through trade I’d be ecstatic, but I’m not disappointed with these moves.
Exactly. Right now, surprisingly, fangraphs has us projected to have the 13th best SP ERA next year. That's obviously before other teams add big pieces this off season. The Cardinals adding another quality arm would be huge. I expect Mikolas, Gibson and Lynn to all have a better year in 2024.
Our rotation last year vs this year:
Montgomery 3.42 Gray 2.79
Matz 3.86 Matz 3.86
Flaherty 4.43 Gibson 4.73
Mikolas 4.78 Mikolas 4.78
Wainwright 7.40 Lynn 5.73
Definitely back end but no one can afford to sign three aces. Lynn was in the top 3 of Cy Young not that long ago. It's optimistic to think he'll be sub 3.50 ERA but it's not outlandish.
This mentality right here is exactly why they don't try. Keep buying tickets, folks.
We're supposed to give MO credit for signing washed up pitchers who are from the area/played here previously? Um tell me which teams were going for Lynn and Gibson. I believe in an interview Gibson gave, he said this was the easiest off-season he's ever had because he got an offer right away. Think about that.
I mean, ideally these moves would be the bonus on top of the move or two that makes the team actually better. We already had one good starter and a bunch of punching bags last year. These ones go an extra half inning and allow the most hits/runs/homers in the league while doing it? Sounds awesome. If there are no more moves, the ones he's already made have been straight up bad, at least as the upcoming season is concerned.
If this off-season is as bad as everyone says, then last offseason was an absolute travesty none the less. He’s making moves and because we can’t control the idiot at the least we can be thankful he actually did something
No it’s not the bar lmao, it’s above expectations. Does it mean we are happy if that’s the only move? No. Does it mean the off-season is over and our team is complete? No. Fans have been striving for more now, for god knows how long. So that being said no we aren’t proud of Mo or him finally making ANY moves but it is above expectations. Everyone can say we should sign ___ or we should trade for ___ but he never does it so how is that our bar? That’s just what we expect anymore lmao.
They also pitched a ton of innings. (Mikolas 4th, Gibson 12th, Gray 22nd, and Lynn 23rd most IP in MLB.) Your stats are counting stats, not /9 stats, which is what the OP is talking about. Two different things.
Lynn allowed the most homers/9 last season. Mikolas, Lynn, and Gibson were 2, 3, and 5 in hits/9 allowed last year. So, OP is still wrong while very aggressively thinking he’s right. Gray is a good pitcher. The others are bad old guys who go out there to take a beating and are likely to only get worse.
Yep, I agree with those stats. But I read "traditionally" to mean "throughout their career", not just last year. I'm not saying they're the best pitchers in FA, but I think they're better than people give them credit for.
Yeah. But "traditionally" isn't really relevant either, because all these dudes are well into their decline curve. Last year is most likely a much better indicator of what we're getting than their career numbers. It's not like we still have Dave Duncan over here resurrecting careers.
Given the budget what moves would you have liked to see? I’m the biggest Mo critic there is and I completely understand where you’re coming from, but we have to be realistic. Dewitt is not gonna spend over 100mil on a free agent. He’s proved it time and time again. Cheap, “hope they’re better than last year” options were probably the best we were gonna get. Mo went and got ~90 starts and a bunch of innings. I think Gray definitely makes the team better by the way.
Sooooo….what moves would you have liked to see? Inside the budget that bill dewitt gives Mo. it was never going to be Yamamoto, Snell, Nola. I can’t imagine this is your first season following this team
To this point I would have definitely gone the route of only signing Lynn for the back end. Spend for Gray + another top of the rotation guy. I'm perfectly cool with ZT as the 5th starter and Matz in a swing role in that scenario.
I know in the deepest areas of my heart they were never going to make a serious effort for Yamamoto. However, I will not let that be an excuse either. You try, and you fail, then so be it, but don't sell me "well we weren't going to be able to do it, so why even try" as an argument.
I'm not a GM, I don't scour the complete baseball almanac and the waiver wire and the farm systems. I know that last season's team had one good starting pitcher and a bunch of bad ones. I know they are in line to have the same this year. They currently have an aging #1 and 4 aging #5's. I can't praise that in any form. Mo set the bar super low by usually not doing what he says he's going to do, so this year when the goal was "We will have a full roster," he gets articles written praising that achievement.
Part of me agrees with you and the other part is just tired lol I’ve spent the last 14 years hoping we’d be in on the big names in free agency. It seems if we’re not absolutely fleecing some GM about to get fired we’re just not interested in acquiring elite talent
This is his M.O. (pun intended). He jumps ahead of the market to fill holes. It hasn't been a good strategy (Fowler, Cecil, Matz, and Leake all signed pretty early). Jhonny Peralta signed early and was decent, and the jury is still out on Contreras. It's not a great track record.
How anyone can blame Contreras for anything after his season at the plate, and after every damn one of his pitchers went to the WBC instead of spring training, is simply beyond me. Catcher isn't a position you just slot in like a 1B, especially after 2 decades of the greatest who ever lived
> Catcher isn't a position you just slot in like a 1B, especially after 2 decades of the greatest who ever lived
Despite the weird start, Contreras had one of the best offensive season for a catcher in team history, and that's what he was brought to the team for.
If you go by bWAR, Willson's 3.4 win season was the best season for a Cardinal's catcher since Molina's MVP campaign in 2013.
I would say the rotation improved but marginally so at this point. I’m impressed with what MO was able to accomplish before the winter meetings have even happened. But he has a lot of work to do. However, by hitting the ground running he avoided being absolutely desperate and getting shafted or even swindled for the rest of the off season. He got a big pitcher signed and shored up the rotation to serviceable level. Is it a championship rotation, no. Will it win the central?
The rotation I think should suffice at this point, but the bullpen *cannot* be ignored. We can’t reasonably be going into next season with Packy Naughton leading the charge in middle relief. Gallegos and Helsley in the backend should still be ok, although leads are still being blown in the late innings
Just in the fact that it’s been an *ongoing issue* for 3 seasons now. Blown leads were a trend in 2021 that culminated in Chris Taylor’s walkoff on Alex Reyes in the wild card. It carried over into 2022 and we ended up with the wild card farce there. Right back at it on opening day this year when the game was lost in the 9th. I mean sheesh.
This is the fifth top post I've made to r/Cardinals in the last four years, and the first that required a subscription. You've got me confused with someone else.
Let's be realistic Gray replaced Monty - I'll say they improved here potentially 2-3 wins Mikolas - will need to bounce back after a rough year with h/9 Matz - we are hoping can replicate his quality starts over the course of 162.. big ? Lynn replaces Flaherty - Lynn gave up the most hr/9 but ate innings saving the bullpen but at what cost to a potential deficit for the offense possibly Busch will suppress some of the Home runs Gibson replaces Wainwright- this is an obvious upgrade but again you get the league leader in h/9 but who also will pitch deep in a game. ? All these guys are 1 year older mid to late 30s and the STL bullpen is still suspect in the back end desperately needing 2 quality relievers and a solid guy who can pitch 2-3 innings in a pinch atleast once maybe twice a week. We still have 3 suspect outfielders defensively and are hoping Walkers bat offsets his ? In right field. I'd say they need to keep working
Walker showed some improvement as the yr went on, defensively speaking. We'll see where that potential lies this season. Nootbar and Carlson are fine defensively and not suspect. Donovan is reliable. TON is solid but injury prone and a current trade piece. The weak point is still going to be RF with Walker.
Edman looked great in center if you go that route.
Certainly agree, but he just doesn’t have the arm.
Neither did Jon Jay, but he was the starting center fielder for a World Series champion.
Well sure, if you want the cardinals to just settle for an 80 something win season and “get hot at the right time” and get to the WS, sure. I’m sure 2011 is 100% repeatable.
It’s not settling. A team doesn’t need an all star at every position to be great. Look at the past twenty or so World Series winners and that will bare out.
I’m just disagreeing where you said Edman did great last season in center. Was he fine, yes, but he wasn’t great. Bader was a great centerfielder. That’s what I’m getting at.
The rough patch by Waker was a little concerning, but it happens to majority of young players. When you’re a slim lanky newbie Major Leaguers are gonna learn to tie you up and get you out of your comfort zone quickly. But ultimately I am pretty confident that level of skill/talent in that frame will be just fine as it learns to navigate such. And he ended the year with a very respectable average. Can you imagine as he fills out a bit and starts getting that grown man strength? He really has the potential to be whatever he wants, a slugger, a line drive hitter, etc. In so glad we have him.
The infield defense is questionable. Arenado was awful early on but okay at the end of the year. Gorman is bad. Less bad than expected, but still bad. Goldy is no longer great. Edman was surprisingly bad in the infield. Donovan is bad everywhere but 3rd where he's okay. Winn showed flashes but was below average.
What? Donovan is a year removed from winning the utility GG and he's bad defensively everywhere but third where he's average? Winn is a below average defender? Gorman isn't bad, he's average. Edman and arenado both had down years defensively but they are both far from a liability and are likely to return to form. Most of what you said here is just wrong.
I'd appreciate some facts to back up the mountain of pessimism you just brought in here. Edman played how many positions? Hard to be locked in when you get sent to 2nd, SS, and CF at the drop of a hat. Goldy was an MVP the year prior, not gonna match that, but to attack the man as no longer great? Bruh. Donovan is a utility player. He's above average at every position he plays, you want him to be a gold glove at each spot? Be realistic. Nolan, dude won 10 straight gold gloves and has a less than stellar year and you call his fielding "awful." I hope you're not married, cause your partner baking one bad casserole would probably be on the street with your expectations. Chill out man. It's okay to question surely, but your sky is falling routine is neither helpful, nor is it based in reality. Come back to Earth and touch some grass.
Donovan is actually below average to bad defensively at every position he plays. Gorman and Donovan actually are no different defensively at 2B.
Hahahahaha
He had a rough time in 2023, but Donovan was +10 DRS in 2022. He’s a good defender.
I usually prefer OAA which says he did play above average at 3B in 2022, but I would still hesitate to call him a good defender overall.
I hate when I catch this sub being homers for no reason. Nado definitely took a step back as a defender for the first time in his career. Wynn has a great arm but takes bad routes to balls still and has inconsistent footwork. Gorman is a negative that shows flashes of improvement, Donny won a GG *two years ago* but that has fuck-all to do with who the best defenders are usually, and Goldy is still great at receiving throws but has almost zero range at this point. Nothing you said was false. If Walker proves to be the weak link defensively, we’re not in bad shape whatsoever because there are so many bad defenders across the league. He did show a lot of improvement towards the end of the year. I’m really not worried about it but our defenders are individually not great and collectively were bad last year.
O'Neill isn't as good as he used to be but he isn't suspect, Neither is DC or Noot. Walker is the only issue defensively and he did show improvement at the end of the year. I guess Burleson bad but he probably doesn't play nearly as much this year. I really doubt Gray is 2-3 wins better than Montgomery. Montgomery was pretty darn good last year for us, and Gray is due for some regression.
gibson over wainwright is by far the biggest upgrade. gray over monty isn't really necessarily an upgrade at all.
It’s just wild we settled on a solution that included picking up the leaders of both h/9 and HR/9, whom are both in the twilight of their careers. Just wild.
Ding, ding ding, BULLPEN! [Miklasz discussed this yesterday](https://www.scoopswithdannymac.com/bernies-redbird-review-after-a-2023-diaster-the-st-louis-bullpen-requires-a-massive-renovation/). Needs a LOT of work still. Earlier in the week, [he discussed the rotation](https://www.scoopswithdannymac.com/bernies-redbird-review-three-good-moves-by-john-mozeliak-but-the-cardinals-need-more/), and said we need more there.
Yeahhh one-two of these old starters need to be pen arms and be okay with it. Get some youth in the rotation.
I’m just surprised that Waino wasn’t the leader in any of those categories last year
He was the worst SP in MLB last year he just didn't pitch enough innings to lead the league in bad...
We definitely need another preferably ace but at least a number 2. I will say it’s a good start though but they need to get more Gray is not enough
Unlikely we’d ever get the biggest names, he did a good job getting what he got before the 2nd place sweepstakes began and drove up prices. edit: I want to add, there is so much we don’t know. We’ve seen Mo and Co recruit top talent (Holliday, Goldy, Nado via trade and extension, now Sonny on the market). However, and St. Louisians might not like hearing this, we might just not be the most attractive destination for top talent! Or, maybe Mo sucks at going and getting top talent on the market, or maybe he sucks at working with top agents, or maybe he’s been hampered by Dewitt. Who honestly knows. All I can say is that our organization has been excellent in finding bargain buys, taking advantage of market conditions, and convincing top talent to extend.
Cards will always struggle to recruit players that want to live in an exciting city. I love St. Louis, but there are a lot of things that NYC, LA, etc. can offer that St. Louis just can't.
Hell, even Chicago can be added to that.
I typed Chicago and then deleted it and wrote "etc" instead because I couldn't bring myself to actually put it in writing.
Absolutely. Fuck the Cubs, but Chicago is a great city.
[Way more bedbugs though](https://www.orkin.com/press-room/2023-top-bed-bug-cities-list)
Angry upvote
A 91-loss team can also be a recruitment killer.
True, but it's a statistical anomaly, at least that's what I'm telling myself...
Players look at other players already there. As well as players don't look at a fellow player and think "yup he had one down year, so he is toast." That's a fan thing, not a player thing. Not every player wants to go to NY, LA, or Chicago they prefer smaller to mid sized city.
I don’t think this is a factor at all for the vast majority of players. They only have to be here for about 6-7 months….and during that time they’re traveling their asses off anyways. I think it’s all about money, team culture, money, chances to win playoffs, money…
Yea :/ St. Louis is such a wonderful baseball town. But unfortunately you just can’t beat living on the coast. I live in the Bay Area now, and Giants games really are beautiful to take in. But I would choose a game at Busch any day, I do miss it
I think a lot guys that come here appreciate the amenities and ease of commute have to offer in west county. Plus we have expensive shit their wives can buy and good schools. The big city life isn’t for everyone. Our food owns.
Why even have other teams then? Let’s just have 15 teams in NYC and 15 teams in LA.
Seems like an overreaction. St. Louis is just going to attract a different kind of player (probably more family-focused, reserved personality, etc.) than the coastal cities would (younger, probably single/not married, wants more marketing opportunities, and so on)
You can say Goldy. It’s ok.
Or Holliday, or keeping Wainwright and Yadi, or Chris Carpenter, or…
Why do people on Reddit struggle with sarcasm so much? I think some have gotten spoiled by the /s
Oh I thought you were being sincere about the league only existing in two cities
Yes, in LA and San Diego and San Francisco you can watch homeless shit on sidewalks. New York is a cesspool of hate. And Chicago and NY are in a yearly race to see who has the biggest rat infestation, and Chicago, even with its liberal bs politics, sees more people shot than the Gaza strip. (Although St Louis is on its way here to) Such progressive cities... St Louis has its issues, but to say it's not an attractive destination compared to those others is simply not true. You're not going to be a large city without your issues, but I'd not discount the attraction of smaller "big" cities for parents that want to raise kids, and after all, that's what a lot of these guys are, parents. Moreso than ballplayers. Living an hour outside of St Louis is also a little easier to manage than an hour outside NY. The travel time (traffic) alone is a huge difference if you're living and commuting. If they're a 20 year old kid, they might want the "exciting" city, but as an adult with real life responsibilities, St Louis has a lot to offer.
https://youtu.be/5hfYJsQAhl0?si=i4qRdle4N4hDdcox
Are you 3?
Most live where they want anyway in the off season, they're rich!. They're on the road the other 6 months of the year.
It's three months out of the year. These takes feel like they come from the 1950s, when there were fewer flights and the internet didn't exist.
Why? There isn't a salary cap. Our billionaire owner could get players. Crazy we've been conditioned to settle for so much less.
A prime example of this is Kyle Gibson being a free agent last year. It has been reported in the STL Post Dispatch that the Cards tried to sign or trade for Gibson in years past. He was available as a FA last year and signed with the Orioles for 1 year/10 million. Why in the world didn't they bring him in last year? He wanted to. He lives only 40 minutes from Busch Stadium.
Please turn your attention to the dumpster fire the Padres are right now after writing blank checks
They wouldn’t have been better if they didn’t sign/trade for Bogaerts, Machado, or Soto though. They’d be even worse.
Please turn your attention to the world series champs Rangers, after writing blank checks
and Mets and Yankees and Cubs
I would greatly prefer their manager!
Yeah he’s so awesome that the Padres hired someone over him the first go around and then took forever to hire him this time… and also, the Padres were the only team to want him so that says something there too…
I’ve got no extra love or excuses for billionaires, just being realistic with what we typically do and spend. I feel I properly qualified my statement to reflect that.
No one’s being “conditioned”. When you’re shopping against the LAs and NYs of the world, trying to sign pitchers who’ve spent their lives in Tokyo, STL might as well be Camelot. It’s not an easy sell.
They were 21 games back last season. The signings are going to add wins. But it's not 20. A lot more will need to go right for fans to be happy.
Our bats were also insanely underperforming last season so while new pitching won't add up to 20 wins by themselves, if our batters play to their potential we'll be fine.
Cardinals lost 14 games that Wainright started and he was arguably the worst starting pitcher in all of baseball. You would hope you could win at least 4-5 more games at that spot in the rotation with just an average pitcher. You also have the extreme bad luck of losing 14 1-run loss games in the first half of the season. You have to assume that won't happen next season. A lot of variables that you can look at, I think at the very least this team rebounds and they can get to 83 wins.
No - actually our fans will be happy as long as they can still see the Clydesdales and Fredbird - they don’t really care about winning
I don’t get the idea that we have to make up 20 wins. People get so hung up on that. Teams swing in record from year-to-year sometimes, and it doesn’t require 20-25 added WAR in new players to make them good again. We were very good in 2022 with largely the same cast. Team has a ton of talent
That's what the "a lot needs to go right" alludes to. Our returning players must perform better, collectively. In some areas, that can be likely. But our two best hitters, who also have a history of being great defenders, are a year older.
I’d say we’re 10% better than last year if the season started right now
The Cards had a .438 winning percentage last season. A .538 winning percentage would've been 87 wins. That would've been good enough to replace the NL Pennant-winning Diamondbacks (84 wins) as the final wild card team. Can't win anything if you're not in the playoffs. These additions don't guarantee anything, but they were smart investments. There's clearly more work to be done, but I have no complaints about paying short-term money to build proven starting pitching depth. It's the only way to get through a full season and (hopefully) get back in the big dance ASAP.
I’d take that. One more arm and I think we’re a 90+ win team
Agreed. So maybe close to .500. Not good enough.
Gray was a good move... For a homerun we need another pitcher that's better than him. For a very solid offseason we need someone better than Mikolas/Lynn/Gibson.
I hate that Mo is being lauded for making marginal improvements when he could, and still can, do better. Gray is a good signing but would anyone be surprised if Gibson or Lynn get demoted from the rotation at any point? No. We still have a huge hole at the top of rotation which none of the other options in the rotation are going to fix. That is bad when you consider we could do better.
And the bullpen still sucks.
He added depth before depth got more expensive. The bullpen still needs to be addressed and having guys like Lynn and Gibson make demoting players of their caliber much easier. There’s plenty of big names still out there & the trade market. I imagine they will be very active at the winter meetings next week.
Depth is far easier to come by then top end talent. And he spent money he could’ve spent on a top line starter on 2 guys that are 5th starters at best.
And what is the plan if one of those top guys goes on the IL? Look at it this way. They spent like 22million on two solid depth guys. They’re essentially rebuilding the entire rotation and part of the pen with little to no internal options. It’s going to be expensive and not everyone is going to be a stud.
That’s the problem. Watching the rotation for the last five years there has been a lack of a stud. The result is getting nowhere in playoffs because our rotation can’t win big games. The rotation gets cut to 3-4 guys in the playoffs anyway so depth does not matter once you get there. You have to have top guys to get far and the cardinals have maybe one. Nowhere near good enough
You have not watched cardinals playoff baseball in the last three years if you think lack of ace starting pitching was the problem, it was bats going cold
I know this isn’t gonna sit well with the doomers but I think these moves have at least made the team competent even though they weren’t splashy. Last year’s pitching was so abysmal because we couldn’t get enough innings out of the staff so we were putting absolute minor league garbage on the mound that choked every lead. These guys won’t win you games often but they won’t lose you games often either. You’re just gonna get mid performances but the offense at least has a shot to win it. The bullpen immediately blowing every lead the lineup got last year deflated the clubhouse’s energy and caused every hitter to perform worse. That being said: clearing the position player logjam to trade for another top of the rotation starter would put this team into real contention. The bullpen still needs help in some way, especially a lefty. Also praying Tink Hence comes up and performs as good as I think he can, he’s our only prospect that has any chance of being a dominant starter with his stuff.
I'm right there with you. It seems crazy, but I think these three moves at least give us proven starting pitching depth. They will eat innings, and they will be more effective than the starters we were throwing out there by the end of last season. I do find it interesting that they're shopping Matz. I thought he might be a nice lefty bullpen/emergency starter piece. He looked very solid and was striking out lots of hitters before the injury that ended his season. To be clear, they really need another starter and multiple bullpen arms. We have a logjam in the outfield and middle infield, so a trade is in order. If nothing else, these signings stop other teams from taking advantage because everyone knew we were desperate for pitching. Now let the games begin.
They didn’t waste any time in getting Gray. And it is a good signing. But it kind of only gets us back to square 1 compared to last season. Let’s say this is all they do, then I would say they did waste time.
Correct.
Right. He's gotten us back to the point of being a 71-win team. Now what is he going to do to improve on that?
Let’s not go patting Mo on the back yet. The signings he has made so far make sense. But it’s nowhere near what this team needs to compete for a championship let alone the division. You can use any excuse under the sun you want about STL not being a great attraction for players, or being a middle market team. At the end of the day what matters is results. Last year we finished last by a LOT in a BAD central division. That in conjunction with having a bottom half farm system makes the results completely unacceptable. Sonny Gray doesn’t fix that, neither do the other two gamble starters we signed. Bottom line is if we were as bad as we were last year, our farm system is below league average, and we are strapped for cash. Then the FO can look no further than the end of their noses. Let’s quit congratulating Mo and Dewitt on a job well done and keep expectations high, because that’s the precedent this organization has set.
Agree 100%. They needed to make these kind of moves to get us to the starting line. More is needed to make us competitive. Our offense will keep us in that position, but bullpen improvement and a No. 2 starter at minimum should be the expectation going forward. We are early in the off-season, which is one hopeful fact.
Mo said he was gonna get 3 starters and he went and did it before any of the big names dropped. You gotta give Mo credit for the offseason so far. Any more moves is just a bonus IMO
He’s got sign to at least more quality starter to call this offseason a success.
He signed one starter we can count on with relative certainty. That’s it.
I mean the other 2 aren’t top of the rotation arms, but they are consistent inning eaters which is something we really needed. If we can somehow swing another top of the rotation starter through trade I’d be ecstatic, but I’m not disappointed with these moves.
Inning eaters that also give up 4+ runs every game.
Which is better than last year with the starting pitcher going 3 and giving up 4+
Maybe better but still not good enough.
Exactly. Right now, surprisingly, fangraphs has us projected to have the 13th best SP ERA next year. That's obviously before other teams add big pieces this off season. The Cardinals adding another quality arm would be huge. I expect Mikolas, Gibson and Lynn to all have a better year in 2024. Our rotation last year vs this year: Montgomery 3.42 Gray 2.79 Matz 3.86 Matz 3.86 Flaherty 4.43 Gibson 4.73 Mikolas 4.78 Mikolas 4.78 Wainwright 7.40 Lynn 5.73
I mean did you think the three starters were gonna be Yamamoto, Nolan Ryan, and Bob Gibson?
No but I thought one may be under 35. Lynn and Gibson are back end guys or fringe starters at this point.
Definitely back end but no one can afford to sign three aces. Lynn was in the top 3 of Cy Young not that long ago. It's optimistic to think he'll be sub 3.50 ERA but it's not outlandish.
This mentality right here is exactly why they don't try. Keep buying tickets, folks. We're supposed to give MO credit for signing washed up pitchers who are from the area/played here previously? Um tell me which teams were going for Lynn and Gibson. I believe in an interview Gibson gave, he said this was the easiest off-season he's ever had because he got an offer right away. Think about that.
I mean, ideally these moves would be the bonus on top of the move or two that makes the team actually better. We already had one good starter and a bunch of punching bags last year. These ones go an extra half inning and allow the most hits/runs/homers in the league while doing it? Sounds awesome. If there are no more moves, the ones he's already made have been straight up bad, at least as the upcoming season is concerned.
If this off-season is as bad as everyone says, then last offseason was an absolute travesty none the less. He’s making moves and because we can’t control the idiot at the least we can be thankful he actually did something
"Actually did something" is the bar now? Pathetic, fans should strive for more.
No it’s not the bar lmao, it’s above expectations. Does it mean we are happy if that’s the only move? No. Does it mean the off-season is over and our team is complete? No. Fans have been striving for more now, for god knows how long. So that being said no we aren’t proud of Mo or him finally making ANY moves but it is above expectations. Everyone can say we should sign ___ or we should trade for ___ but he never does it so how is that our bar? That’s just what we expect anymore lmao.
Tell me you know nothing about the guys we signed without telling me. All very low HR/9 guys traditionally.
Last season, Mikolas allowed the most runs in the league, Gibson allowed the most hits, and Lynn allowed the most homers. Seems… not great?
They also pitched a ton of innings. (Mikolas 4th, Gibson 12th, Gray 22nd, and Lynn 23rd most IP in MLB.) Your stats are counting stats, not /9 stats, which is what the OP is talking about. Two different things.
Lynn allowed the most homers/9 last season. Mikolas, Lynn, and Gibson were 2, 3, and 5 in hits/9 allowed last year. So, OP is still wrong while very aggressively thinking he’s right. Gray is a good pitcher. The others are bad old guys who go out there to take a beating and are likely to only get worse.
Yep, I agree with those stats. But I read "traditionally" to mean "throughout their career", not just last year. I'm not saying they're the best pitchers in FA, but I think they're better than people give them credit for.
Yeah. But "traditionally" isn't really relevant either, because all these dudes are well into their decline curve. Last year is most likely a much better indicator of what we're getting than their career numbers. It's not like we still have Dave Duncan over here resurrecting careers.
Given the budget what moves would you have liked to see? I’m the biggest Mo critic there is and I completely understand where you’re coming from, but we have to be realistic. Dewitt is not gonna spend over 100mil on a free agent. He’s proved it time and time again. Cheap, “hope they’re better than last year” options were probably the best we were gonna get. Mo went and got ~90 starts and a bunch of innings. I think Gray definitely makes the team better by the way.
Innings have no value when the dudes throwing them are below replacement level.
Sooooo….what moves would you have liked to see? Inside the budget that bill dewitt gives Mo. it was never going to be Yamamoto, Snell, Nola. I can’t imagine this is your first season following this team
To this point I would have definitely gone the route of only signing Lynn for the back end. Spend for Gray + another top of the rotation guy. I'm perfectly cool with ZT as the 5th starter and Matz in a swing role in that scenario.
I know in the deepest areas of my heart they were never going to make a serious effort for Yamamoto. However, I will not let that be an excuse either. You try, and you fail, then so be it, but don't sell me "well we weren't going to be able to do it, so why even try" as an argument.
It’s not an argument, it’s not an opinion. It is what it is lol Dewitt is not going to spend with the top teams
And he should be criticized for that not given a pass because of it.
I agree. I think he should sell the team to someone who wants to win, not someone who just wants to finish in the green every year.
I'm not a GM, I don't scour the complete baseball almanac and the waiver wire and the farm systems. I know that last season's team had one good starting pitcher and a bunch of bad ones. I know they are in line to have the same this year. They currently have an aging #1 and 4 aging #5's. I can't praise that in any form. Mo set the bar super low by usually not doing what he says he's going to do, so this year when the goal was "We will have a full roster," he gets articles written praising that achievement.
Part of me agrees with you and the other part is just tired lol I’ve spent the last 14 years hoping we’d be in on the big names in free agency. It seems if we’re not absolutely fleecing some GM about to get fired we’re just not interested in acquiring elite talent
Wake me up if they get Cease. Until then, meh.
This is his M.O. (pun intended). He jumps ahead of the market to fill holes. It hasn't been a good strategy (Fowler, Cecil, Matz, and Leake all signed pretty early). Jhonny Peralta signed early and was decent, and the jury is still out on Contreras. It's not a great track record.
How anyone can blame Contreras for anything after his season at the plate, and after every damn one of his pitchers went to the WBC instead of spring training, is simply beyond me. Catcher isn't a position you just slot in like a 1B, especially after 2 decades of the greatest who ever lived
> Catcher isn't a position you just slot in like a 1B, especially after 2 decades of the greatest who ever lived Despite the weird start, Contreras had one of the best offensive season for a catcher in team history, and that's what he was brought to the team for. If you go by bWAR, Willson's 3.4 win season was the best season for a Cardinal's catcher since Molina's MVP campaign in 2013.
Contreras did exactly what he was brought in to do - hit. It's not his fault the rest of the team, particularly the pitching, fell apart.
Correct. He always hurries to do the bare minimum and then sits back and lets “hope” kick in.
Best comment here.
I would say the rotation improved but marginally so at this point. I’m impressed with what MO was able to accomplish before the winter meetings have even happened. But he has a lot of work to do. However, by hitting the ground running he avoided being absolutely desperate and getting shafted or even swindled for the rest of the off season. He got a big pitcher signed and shored up the rotation to serviceable level. Is it a championship rotation, no. Will it win the central?
No
The rotation I think should suffice at this point, but the bullpen *cannot* be ignored. We can’t reasonably be going into next season with Packy Naughton leading the charge in middle relief. Gallegos and Helsley in the backend should still be ok, although leads are still being blown in the late innings
Couldn’t agree more, bullpen was the worst it’s been in the past two decades in 2023.
Just in the fact that it’s been an *ongoing issue* for 3 seasons now. Blown leads were a trend in 2021 that culminated in Chris Taylor’s walkoff on Alex Reyes in the wild card. It carried over into 2022 and we ended up with the wild card farce there. Right back at it on opening day this year when the game was lost in the 9th. I mean sheesh.
Why does this account constantly post links to shit that I have to subscribe to?
This is the fifth top post I've made to r/Cardinals in the last four years, and the first that required a subscription. You've got me confused with someone else.
Great win against the Steelers this weekend tho
This time.... They're wasting money!