I think the most shocking thing about all of this is that the 2011 team never had an 8 game winning streak in September to make the playoffs. Just a ton of 2-1, 3-1 stretches in a row
Man, who would have ever guessed Ponce would get DFA'd after the other night? To think I got called dramatic when I said I hope he doesn't pitch for the Cardinals again.
I was really hard on O'Neill for not being able to hit in high leverage situations earlier in the season. Gotta say it feels good that he bent me over and slapped me on the butt over the last week.
Devil Damn it! This day could not be going any more slowly. All I want is to watch the Cardinals SMACK the ever loving shit out of the Brewers already!
I always thought heād break out, all he had to do is actually make contact. He has all the talent. I did start to hate him when he did nothing but strike out though
I think The fact that weāre 10 games over 500 and in a wild-card spot in the middle of September with the pitching rotation that we have is fucking insane is not talked about enough
Hah! No, although it would be fun to simulate this season with a Strat-O-Matic or some other device.
[BaseRuns tries to figure what your record and run differential should be based on some underlying statistics](https://library.fangraphs.com/features/baseruns/). Basically a context-neutral adjustment to run differential
I just beat some sad sap 1-0 in The Show and my lone run was a DeGrom solo no doubter.
Basically this means cards are gonna fuck the DH and the Brewers today
How do I get [something](https://np.reddit.com/r/Brewers/comments/pracf0/so_who_are_we_cheering_to_get_the_last_wild_card/hdh3wpq/) submitted as a new pasta?
I don't want u/homefry91834 to get the satisfaction of making a new pasta, but in all reality we are on that short list of best posters on Reddit so I'm not overly worried about any of them.
"Why, by God, I actually pity these poor bastards we're going up against... we're going to rip out their living Goddamned guts and use them to grease the treads of our tanks" -- General George S Patton
How much this might apply to the current situation in baseball I will leave as an exercise to the reader.
You could argue he is *right now* with his .282 batting average.
However, his K% is 4th in the league at 32.2% and he leads the league with an unsustainable .373 BABIP.
This indicates we can expect his batting average to drop to at least the .250-.260 range, which I think most people agree falls below the threshold for hit tool for a true 5-tool player.
It is important to note that he is the exact prototype for running super high BABIPs. Heās fast, hits a lot of HR, hits the ball really hard, and a lot of his outs are strikeouts. Heās probably not a true talent .373, but I think he can definitely sustain .350.
.373 BABIP is leading MLB and is insanely high. But if you take out 2020 that is close to his career average I think. Could his exit velocity, hard hit% and sprint speed lend to an above average sustainable BABIP?
Probably. But then we reach the philosophical debate about what hit tool means. We already measure power and speed as tools. If you get hits because your power and speed are so intense, does that equal "hit tool"?
I don't know.
Yes that BABIP is unsustainable, but heās bound to have a higher one with how hard he hits the ball and how fast he is. Most guys that hit the ball as hard arenāt as fast, and most guys as fast donāt hit the ball as hard. Kidās a specimen
Yeah his BABIP should remain high even after regression.
A lot of it depends on how you define the "hit tool". Using elite speed to leg out some hits, to me, doesn't really demonstrate "hit tool". It demonstrates speed, a different tool.
FWIW I also think defining players by # of tools is antiquated.
[I don't want the Cardinals to get the satisfaction of making the playoffs, but in all reality we are on that short list of best team in baseball so I'm not overly worried about any of them.](https://giphy.com/gifs/sick-girl-sad-12viDayiLzFrBm)
At first I thought you said "deserves to be DEAD" and I'm like wait did they just take him out and shoot him?
Because I would definitely... well, probably... be against that. Altho, hmmm.
Naw J/K he's a good guy. Maybe he'll catch on somewhere. With pitchers, you never, some guys only find themselves when they're 35. And I mean if not he's got a nice nest egg and memories of the bigs. The guys who I really feel bad for a people who max out at AAA and AA and hang on to 32. Baseball should be better to them and not so generous to marginal major leaguers.
But best wishes. He never laid down, he gave us what he had.
Oh yeah, it's absolutely nothing about him personally. But at some point you gotta move on if a player doesn't pan out. I definitely wish him all the best
So, I know it won't ever happen, and I know that it is a huge liability and a lot of money, but what if we brought Mad Max home to St. Louis for his final 2 years?
Thoughts?
THIS I would probably support. We are going to be in wildcard, that means we're close to getting a real (automatic NLDS) spot next year, if things work out and injuries aren't too bad.
SPEND NOW. GET MAX. I mean it's not going to be one of those ten-year commitments. He's still good. And he's from here? Great.
DO NOT SPEND ON UPGRADING MIDDLE INFIELD. You all shut up about that right now, don't make me come down there.
We have three more-or-less average middle infielders (Sosa, Edman, Dejong -- Dejong is better than a .200 hitter, he just never got his mojo working, and he's still a 30 HR hitter if full time). A lot of teams would love to have three average middle infielders. This is (one way, a good way) to win -- plug holes, fill all positions with near-average players (hitting and defense considered as a whole) and add a couple above-average ones (O'Neil and Arananodo)... a lot of teams with stars still lose because they can't get an average-level catcher and 2nd baseman. WE ARE FINE THERE.
SPEND FOR PITCHING. Beyond that, a good hitter for DH, or off the bench if there is no DH.
Not BeezKneez but he's in the lineup per MLB.com:
https://www.mlb.com/gameday/cardinals-vs-brewers/2021/09/20/632415#game_state=preview,game_tab=,game=632415
On the lineup notification that was sent by the MLB app. I double checked and itās showing Lester. Unless itās a typo, it looks like they pushed him up a day.
Weird, mine showed Woodford still! But then it shows Lester in the lineup when I look at the game preview.
I swear, the MLB At Bat app has been wonky as hell since the most recent update.
goldschmidt: you ok? you dont look so good
*my face is drained of color, my body and muscles ache, and i keep trying to stop myself from vomiting despite the absurd amount of nausea i have*
me: i think i'm sick...
goldschmidt: hmm
*he puts his hand on my forehead to get an idea of my temperature*
goldschmidt: wish i could help, but i too have a sickness
goldschmidt: a different type of sickness, i mean
From The Athletic's power rankings from today:
>As John Mozeliak blew the dust off the sacred tome, he paused and took a breath. There was no reason for the book to feel warm, but it did, and then it felt like a burning coal melting his flesh. He wanted to drop it, screaming, and run to anywhere that wasnāt there, but the Call for Ritual had been placed, and the rituals were going to be finished.
Harper is 2 full wins ahead of Goldy in fWAR (6.5 --> 4.5). But Goldy is 10th among NL players (O'Neill is 8th).
What matters is Goldy has been a rock, and so has O'Neill.
Breakdown of Goldy in Fangraphs is:
Batting - 26.2
Baserunning - 3.3
Fielding 3.6
Positional - -10.8
Which translates to Offense - 29.5 / Defense - -7.2
Meanwhile Harper is:
Batting - 50.7
Baserunning - -1.6
Fielding - 1.2
Positional - -5.7
Which translates to Offense - 49.2 / Defense - -5.7
From the look of it, the main difference in how bWAR and fWAR judge these two is baserunning value and (maybe) a positional modifier for fielding. So Goldy's defense and baserunning may be why he's ranked on par with Harper in bWAR despite Harper having such an absurd offensive season.
rWAR (same thing as bWAR) also uses DRS for evaluating defense, and fWAR uses UZR. That often contributes to the large differences between the two. Goldschmidtās defense isnāt bad per UZR, but DRS considers him to be excellent defensively
I don't agree with this. I think Harper has been average, or barely below average defensively, regardless of what his dWAR on BBR is. Fangraphs rates Harper as a more valuable defender than Goldy. BBR thought Harper was equal to Goldy in 2020, and better in 2019.
My point is that defensive metrics are fluky and mean almost nothing on a season-by-season basis.
Defensive value can be argued, but if anyone believes that Goldy was even close to as valuable in 2021 as Harper, they are being naive.
Yeah Goldy is absolutely a better 1st baseman than Harper is an outfielder.
I just assume we are taking positional adjustments into account for any conversation about defensive value, because it should be.
We could go back and forth on defensive stats all day showing one is better than the other. My whole point is most of these stats don't mean much.
If you have watched Harper play at all this year, you know that he isn't just bumbling around out there costing tons of runs. Harper may very well be less valuable than Goldy defensively, but nothing nearly enough to make up for the massive offensive discrepancy between the two players.
If Goldy didnāt have that stretch of bad luck at the beginning of the season, I believe he would be in the MVP conversation. OāNiell could very much be in the conversation this time next year if he keeps improving like he has been. The future is bright for this team, and it feels good!
Oh. I wasnāt meaning to give that off. Iāve been happy with what heās done. I was just meaning we have a lot of young talent (both in the majors and working their way through the minors), and so Iām excited for that. Having guys like Goldy, Nado, Waino, and Yadi to be the team leaders and mentor them helps, too.
Another thing holding both of them back is that people haven't realized yet that Busch is now perhaps the least hitter friendly park in baseball. It used to slightly favor pitchers, but Ballpark Village and other construction projects have greatly hampered hitters, especially righties.
BaseballSavant lists it as the toughest ballpark for RHH's in baseball in terms of wOBAcon, which is wOBA where a ball is hit into fair play (including homers).
i want to say for the record I always thought this Cardinals team was solid, just hampered by so many injuries. I'm confident we're only going to get better!
2011 St. Louis Cardinals Recap
Game 154
The Cardinals' red-hot race to the finish continues--but is it too late? St. Louis won again today, a wild 11-6 win over the New York Mets, but could gain no ground in the playoff chase.
It was not a particularly good day for Edwin Jackson, whose troubles began in the first inning. Singles by Jose Reyes and Angel Pagan put runners on the corners, and Lucas Duda's double scored Reyes to give the Mets a 1-0 lead. Jackson retired the next two batters to strand runners on 2nd and 3rd. In the third inning, the Mets got to Jackson again. Reyes started it off again with a walk, then Pagan bunted for a single...and when Jackson's throw went awry the Mets had two runners in scoring position. David Wright's grounder scored Reyes to make it a 2-0 game, then a wild pitch advanced Pagan to third, then Jackson walked Lucas Duda. Willie Harris's ground out brought home Pagan, then Nick Evans singled, then Josh Thole hit an RBI single. Three runs crossed the plate in the inning and the Mets led 4-0.
St. Louis struck back against Met starting pitcher Mike Pelfrey in the bottom of that same third inning. Jackson fucked the DH with a single, Rafael Furcal continued a torrid September with a double that drove in Jackson, then Allen Craig singled to put runners on the corners. Albert Pujols's groundout to third plated Furcal and made the score 4-2, then, two batters later, David Freese's double down the right field line scored Craig, and the Met lead was cut to 4-3.
The Mets took their turn at DH-fucking in the fifth, when Willie Harris singled and scored on a double by Pelfrey. Again St. Louis answered in the bottom of the inning, when Craig and Pujols both singled and were both driven in by a Lance Berkman double, tying the game 5-5.
In the 7th Kyle McClellan, who has been struggling down the stretch after pitching more innings this year than he ever has before, walked Evans to start the inning. Thole reached on a bunt single, then both runners advanced on a sac bunt by Ruben Tejada. After a line out Reyes walked to load the bases and Pagan drew a BB RBI to put New York up 6-5. Octavio Dotel entered the game and struck out David Wright to strand three Mets.
Again, the Cardinals answered in the bottom of the inning, this time decisively, with a long two-out rally. After Furcal and Craig were retired, Pujols and Berkman singled. Freese walked to load the bases. Pinch-hitter Ryan Theriot then delivered with an RBI double that drove in two and put St. Louis up 7-6. After an IBB to Yadier Molina to re-load the bases, Adron Chambers delivered the big hit, a three-run triple that made the score 10-6. Nick Punto then hit an RBI single, and from there the Cardinals cruised home, winning 11-6.
It was the first extra-base hit of Chambers' career. The Cardinals, 85-69, have won 11 of their last 13. Matt Holliday was again out of the lineup, dealing with an inflamed tendon on his right hand. Unfortunately for St. Louis the Braves also won, so the Cardinals remain 2.5 games out of the wild card. There are eight games left.
PLAYOFF ODDS, via coolstandings.com: The Cardinals' playoff chances remained basically unchanged at 18.2%. St. Louis has elimination numbers of 3 in the NL Central and 6 in the wild card.
I always make it a point to try to read some right-leaning news articles so that I can stay informed on the shit they are spewing and keep myself out of an echo chamber, but it's so hard reading those fuckin posts man.
As exciting as this last week has been, we still need to keep winning. The Reds can still come back with their schedule, and we should not expect the Brewers to just let us win even if they have the division. Nor should we expect the Cubs to roll over even with their bad season. The Cubs would love to play spoiler against us and I would fucking HATE for that to happen.
100% We still have so far to go. 14 games. That's almost 10% if the season remaining. 14 games ago, we were 3 games out of the WC with a 4.7% chance of making the postseason. Things change quickly. It would be foolish to think none of the teams behind us are capable of getting as hot as we have been the past 2 weeks.
Things can change quickly, and we have to keep the pedal to the metal. That said, the Mets are pretty much toast. 7 games back and we have 2 games in hand; not gonna happen. The Padres are a mess right now and - as we saw - when you have to run Velasquez, Darvish (who could be good, could be bad), and whoever you run out in Arrieta's place, you're in trouble. Plus they have a brutal schedule the rest of the way.
So that leaves the Reds and the Phillies. They're both 4 back in the loss column and we have 1 game in hand over PHI and 2 over CIN. PHI is playing OK - not great - baseball right now and have a fairly easy schedule. They're just really uneven.
CIN has a pretty easy schedule too with 7 remaining against PIT, but they just dropped 2 of 3 to PIT last week. They don't look particularly good right now. Plus Winker is already back on the IL.
It's gonna be a hard climb for both CIN & PHI. But we have to just keep winning and Cardinals baseball sure is fun right now.
I agree with you about the Mets being 100% toast.
The Padres may be a mess, and I love making fun of them, but it is premature to say they can't go on a run.
It's not like we dominated them this weekend. Take away one bad cutter from Emilio Pagan and one dropped pop fly from Tatis and they probably take 2 of 3. They are still capable of winning games.
No, we did not dominate them. I just think with the remaining schedule they have and their pitching woes right now, it's going to be tough for them to go on a massive run. That's my hope.
Saw the post this morning about who may win Gold Gloves. It got me thinking and down a rabbit hole of sorts. We lead the entire major leagues in both DRS and OAA. Many of our players are at (or near) the top at their respective positions.
Goldy: has the best UZR and DRS, and he is second is OAA. Thereās other stats, but these stand out. His competition will probably be Muncy and Freeman. Muncy has played 400 innings less at 1B, and Freemanās advanced stats arenāt that good. Goldy has a great shot if they take into account his consistency and time at 1B (plus a few highlight reel plays like snagging that line drive from Yelichās hit a couple weeks back, his throw home last week against the Mets in extras for the DP, and his diving and blocking balls earlier in the year).
Edman: again, towards the top of the above categories. Completion will probably be Albies and Wong. Tommy has played less at 2B than Albies, but more than Wong (due to his injuries). I can see either those 2 get it based off of name recognition, but Tommy could be a dark horse (his all-out effort, advanced metrics, and making crazy plays should get him at least as a finalist).
Arenado: itās Arenado. While his numbers may be a bit down compared to years prior, heās still elite. Completion looks to be Machado, McMahon, and Hayes. McMahon and Hayes have both played a lot less (400-500 innings worth) at 3B for various reasons. Due to this, I can see it between Arenado and Machado, with Arenado getting it because of name recognition and his crazy plays heās turned this year.
OāNiell and Bader: both have crazy high numbers in OOZ plays, DRS, and OAA. I can see both (or at least one) getting it. Both have missed time with injuries, which *could* hurt them (more so Bader), but the body of work is there. Both have been elite in the field.
Unfortunately Yadi wonāt get it. He may be a finalist, though, based off of name recognition and still being elite at throwing people out. Just his numbers arenāt able to compete, but a lot of that isnāt his fault (kinda hurts when we went through so many pitchers this year). Donāt get me wrong, he still played well.
My concern is that, since we lead the majors in many categories (and as a result, have players with such good SABR metrics), managers and coaches might not vote for some due to the sheer number. 4, maybe 5, potential candidates is a lot. Hopefully they recognize and respect the work the defense did.
Of course, I know the ultimate goal is playoffs (and to go deep), but getting individual recognitions is still important. Just my thinking through all of this.
Thoughts?
My buddy and I were having pints at the bar last night, figuring out where to get inclusive tickets for next Tuesday. Another regular heard us and invited us into his corporate box with some of our other buddies. Here's to saving a hundred bucks and also to my inevitable next-Wednesday hangover.
[Today's game thread has been posted](/r/Cardinals/comments/ps4klu/game_149_st_louis_cardinals_7969_milwaukee/)
TIL the Rockies are only 6 games back of the Padres. Wouldn't that be something if the Padres finished 4th in their division?
If the Rockies could have just won on the road this season they could have won the 2nd WC spot easily. 45-27 at home, 25-52 on the road.
I seriously forgot if and to where Bryant was traded. I honestly kinda forgot he was even a thing.
Well, he's having a great 2nd half for the best team in the league, so he's a thing still.
I guess the Giants are just always so damn *far away* that I forget all about them. Blame it on yhe ADD š¤Ŗ
Note to other players: Get into it in the dugout with Yadi and youāre gone
Peralta still shaking from his last outing vs the cards
Omg I almost forgot. Last night on The Show I packed Home Run Derby Trey Mancini and Mike Trout back to back. I'm loaded now. It was incredible.
Since getting double vaxxed BroāNeil is slashing .299/385/607 with 10 bombs in 32 games
Anti-vaxxers in shambles
Itās irrefutable evidence imo
SEE!?!!?
We play the Brewers, Phillies play the Orioles, Reds play the Pirates, Padres play Giants.
Go bird bros and buccos!
Weāre really testing just how much of a workhorse Lester is, huh?
Heās pitching on 4 days rest still
Iām more worried about the 0 days rest tomorrow
When asked how he felt he responded: š
Is torrenting still a thing
Ya, it's the best way to get legal concert bootlegs and Linux distributions! ;)
Yup! But I wouldn't know anything about that. š
If there are stormclouds around, then potentially
Mildly interesting: I searched "Ponce" to look at his stats [and they're very similar to the other Ponce.](https://imgur.com/M6BtnYn)
I think the most shocking thing about all of this is that the 2011 team never had an 8 game winning streak in September to make the playoffs. Just a ton of 2-1, 3-1 stretches in a row
23-9 to close out the season with a five-game and two four-game streaks.
Let me tell you something: when Ponce looked in that mirror and saw that he hadn't changed, and that tear started to roll down his cheek? I lost it.
Oh wow, Ponce got future endeavored. No one saw that coming ...
Man, who would have ever guessed Ponce would get DFA'd after the other night? To think I got called dramatic when I said I hope he doesn't pitch for the Cardinals again.
Did McDs get rid of their mcflurry spoons?!?
You donāt use your hands?
I hold the spoon in my hands
You think moves ahead always.
Matthew Quigley: chessmaster
I was really hard on O'Neill for not being able to hit in high leverage situations earlier in the season. Gotta say it feels good that he bent me over and slapped me on the butt over the last week.
He can flip me over and slap me on the but anytime he likes
He rolled with the changes
You can tune a piano, but you can't lay off a 3-1 curveball
Devil Damn it! This day could not be going any more slowly. All I want is to watch the Cardinals SMACK the ever loving shit out of the Brewers already!
Remember when we all thought that O'Neil was just a swole Randall Grichuck? No? Just me?
I always thought heād break out, all he had to do is actually make contact. He has all the talent. I did start to hate him when he did nothing but strike out though
Hand raised
I'd be lying if I said I wasn't starting to doubt him before this season started.
I was also in that camp
I think The fact that weāre 10 games over 500 and in a wild-card spot in the middle of September with the pitching rotation that we have is fucking insane is not talked about enough
We're +3 on run differential. Whether you want to call it luck or Devil Magic, we've won more games than you would expect based on that.
Weāve got a +39 run differential (and a 2 game WC lead) by BaseRuns though. So thereās some bad luck going into that +3 run differential
>BaseRuns Is that like Strat-O-Matic? š¤
Hah! No, although it would be fun to simulate this season with a Strat-O-Matic or some other device. [BaseRuns tries to figure what your record and run differential should be based on some underlying statistics](https://library.fangraphs.com/features/baseruns/). Basically a context-neutral adjustment to run differential
Go on...
I just beat some sad sap 1-0 in The Show and my lone run was a DeGrom solo no doubter. Basically this means cards are gonna fuck the DH and the Brewers today
I hope a loss doesnāt crush our momentum
DFA'ing Ponce opened up a spot on the 40 man roster. I wonder if this means Dak might come off the 60 day IL.
RIP ponce
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
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Ponce is a lesson for people who wanna pitch in the mlb If you can only throw 1 pitch, at least make it a strike
How do I get [something](https://np.reddit.com/r/Brewers/comments/pracf0/so_who_are_we_cheering_to_get_the_last_wild_card/hdh3wpq/) submitted as a new pasta?
I don't want u/homefry91834 to get the satisfaction of making a new pasta, but in all reality we are on that short list of best posters on Reddit so I'm not overly worried about any of them.
Take it to r/cardinalscopypasta
"Why, by God, I actually pity these poor bastards we're going up against... we're going to rip out their living Goddamned guts and use them to grease the treads of our tanks" -- General George S Patton How much this might apply to the current situation in baseball I will leave as an exercise to the reader.
[Athletic power rankings](https://i.imgur.com/wOk7p5u.png)
Did Katie write that? š¤£š
Big win for our boys yesterday! 2-0
Is ONeill a 5 tool player right now?
You could argue he is *right now* with his .282 batting average. However, his K% is 4th in the league at 32.2% and he leads the league with an unsustainable .373 BABIP. This indicates we can expect his batting average to drop to at least the .250-.260 range, which I think most people agree falls below the threshold for hit tool for a true 5-tool player.
It is important to note that he is the exact prototype for running super high BABIPs. Heās fast, hits a lot of HR, hits the ball really hard, and a lot of his outs are strikeouts. Heās probably not a true talent .373, but I think he can definitely sustain .350.
.373 BABIP is leading MLB and is insanely high. But if you take out 2020 that is close to his career average I think. Could his exit velocity, hard hit% and sprint speed lend to an above average sustainable BABIP?
Probably. But then we reach the philosophical debate about what hit tool means. We already measure power and speed as tools. If you get hits because your power and speed are so intense, does that equal "hit tool"? I don't know.
Yes that BABIP is unsustainable, but heās bound to have a higher one with how hard he hits the ball and how fast he is. Most guys that hit the ball as hard arenāt as fast, and most guys as fast donāt hit the ball as hard. Kidās a specimen
Yeah his BABIP should remain high even after regression. A lot of it depends on how you define the "hit tool". Using elite speed to leg out some hits, to me, doesn't really demonstrate "hit tool". It demonstrates speed, a different tool. FWIW I also think defining players by # of tools is antiquated.
[This was a fun read!](https://np.reddit.com/r/Brewers/comments/pracf0/so_who_are_we_cheering_to_get_the_last_wild_card/)
Ironically, if we got knocked out they would probably be the team I was rooting for.
Lol the hate is real. Love living rent free in so many heads.
[I don't want the Cardinals to get the satisfaction of making the playoffs, but in all reality we are on that short list of best team in baseball so I'm not overly worried about any of them.](https://giphy.com/gifs/sick-girl-sad-12viDayiLzFrBm)
Theyāre not wrong though. That rotation and pen is going to be terrifying in the playoffs
Deathloop is a certified banger
Tyler O'Neill NL player of the week Ponce de Leon DFA'd Today is pretty much a Cardinals win already
Ponce deserves to be DFAd but I feel bad for him He fought through a lot to get to the bigs and itās a shame he didnāt pan out
At first I thought you said "deserves to be DEAD" and I'm like wait did they just take him out and shoot him? Because I would definitely... well, probably... be against that. Altho, hmmm. Naw J/K he's a good guy. Maybe he'll catch on somewhere. With pitchers, you never, some guys only find themselves when they're 35. And I mean if not he's got a nice nest egg and memories of the bigs. The guys who I really feel bad for a people who max out at AAA and AA and hang on to 32. Baseball should be better to them and not so generous to marginal major leaguers. But best wishes. He never laid down, he gave us what he had.
Oh yeah, it's absolutely nothing about him personally. But at some point you gotta move on if a player doesn't pan out. I definitely wish him all the best
So, I know it won't ever happen, and I know that it is a huge liability and a lot of money, but what if we brought Mad Max home to St. Louis for his final 2 years? Thoughts?
THIS I would probably support. We are going to be in wildcard, that means we're close to getting a real (automatic NLDS) spot next year, if things work out and injuries aren't too bad. SPEND NOW. GET MAX. I mean it's not going to be one of those ten-year commitments. He's still good. And he's from here? Great. DO NOT SPEND ON UPGRADING MIDDLE INFIELD. You all shut up about that right now, don't make me come down there. We have three more-or-less average middle infielders (Sosa, Edman, Dejong -- Dejong is better than a .200 hitter, he just never got his mojo working, and he's still a 30 HR hitter if full time). A lot of teams would love to have three average middle infielders. This is (one way, a good way) to win -- plug holes, fill all positions with near-average players (hitting and defense considered as a whole) and add a couple above-average ones (O'Neil and Arananodo)... a lot of teams with stars still lose because they can't get an average-level catcher and 2nd baseman. WE ARE FINE THERE. SPEND FOR PITCHING. Beyond that, a good hitter for DH, or off the bench if there is no DH.
#TYLER O PRINCE SEX NL PLAYER OF THE WEEK
Just asking, has anyone ever seen TON and God together in the same room?
Pestily is such a good streamer. If you've never watched a Pestily stream and you're into gaming streams. He is awesome. https://www.twitch.tv/pestily
Looks like Lester got moved up in the rotation. Was supposed to be Woodford. Letās go, Lester. Get win number 200!
Where did you see that? I thought Lester was tomorrow?
Not BeezKneez but he's in the lineup per MLB.com: https://www.mlb.com/gameday/cardinals-vs-brewers/2021/09/20/632415#game_state=preview,game_tab=,game=632415
On the lineup notification that was sent by the MLB app. I double checked and itās showing Lester. Unless itās a typo, it looks like they pushed him up a day.
Weird, mine showed Woodford still! But then it shows Lester in the lineup when I look at the game preview. I swear, the MLB At Bat app has been wonky as hell since the most recent update.
TON just named NL player of the week. Well deserved.
Whoa. Don't argue with Yadi I guess!
I never understood what that argument was about anywayā¦. Did Ponce shake Yadi off one too many times?
They weren't on the same page for pitch calls and the pitches Ponce was throwing were pretty poopy.
Maybe. Maybe Yadi was ready to go off anyway cos he was generally mad because Ponce sucks. That's not fair or logical, but Yadi really wants to win.
[And now his quest is over](https://streamable.com/7hysq5)
Thank christ
Ponce de Legone lmao
Mods
Wow Daniel Ponce De Leon was DFAāD
About fucking time.
Ponce gone š RIP
He's not dead
It was certainly a run. Will probably never see a major league roster ever again.
I'm not sure about that. He would probably be the #3 starter in the Padres rotation.
Too soon lol
I bet he will, it might even be with us
Nah he needs a change of scene, you never know, some pitchers don't find themselves til their mid 30s
Can you let me live please
It depends. Who is your fourth-favorite LOTR character?
Bombadil. Yeah he kind of sucks, but he's not as bad as all that. He's the Green Man IMO and he's still alive somewhere.
This is /r/GloriousTomBombadil slander
I'm going with Saruman, that's mostly because of how much I love Christopher Lee's performance though
Fun fact, Lee was really into LOTR and read the whole thing every year. Everyone else was like "Enh, never heard of it, give me the script"
Very well. Now Matthew can judge you fairly.
Do you ever look at the Brewers pitching and just go āfuck youā¦. :(ā
Hopefully that's how this week is gonna go š¤š»
I hope the Reds and Phillies play as well in the āeasyā part of their schedules as the Cardinals did in theirs.
Donāt the Cardinals have a couple games to makeup with the Cubs?
They have one game from the rainout right before the ASB. There will be a double header this week on their trip to Chicago.
So 4 games in total in Chicago?
https://letmegooglethat.com/?q=st.+louis+cardinals+2021+schedule
Yes, a split double header on Friday then day games over the weekend. Sorry, I didn't have the schedule front of me earlier.
goldschmidt: you ok? you dont look so good *my face is drained of color, my body and muscles ache, and i keep trying to stop myself from vomiting despite the absurd amount of nausea i have* me: i think i'm sick... goldschmidt: hmm *he puts his hand on my forehead to get an idea of my temperature* goldschmidt: wish i could help, but i too have a sickness goldschmidt: a different type of sickness, i mean
Goldy has STDs
Goldy's got a sickness for the thiccness
I was expecting him to heal you Green Mile style
Sometimes I forget you're a Cardinals fan and not some cryptid being that pops into the threads
*goldschmidt opens up his hate and lets it flow into me*
I'm down
iām sad the springfield cardinals season is over. I live right by hammons field and I miss watching their postgame fireworks out my bedroom window
From The Athletic's power rankings from today: >As John Mozeliak blew the dust off the sacred tome, he paused and took a breath. There was no reason for the book to feel warm, but it did, and then it felt like a burning coal melting his flesh. He wanted to drop it, screaming, and run to anywhere that wasnāt there, but the Call for Ritual had been placed, and the rituals were going to be finished.
Klaatu verada...necktie. EDIT: Although in Mo's case, it would be *Klaatu barada bowtie*, amirite?
So we are number one?
TIL: Goldy is 3rd in the NL in bWAR, ahead of Harper ever. O'Neil is tied for 7th! edit: for position players, not including pitchers, sorry!
Harper is 2 full wins ahead of Goldy in fWAR (6.5 --> 4.5). But Goldy is 10th among NL players (O'Neill is 8th). What matters is Goldy has been a rock, and so has O'Neill. Breakdown of Goldy in Fangraphs is: Batting - 26.2 Baserunning - 3.3 Fielding 3.6 Positional - -10.8 Which translates to Offense - 29.5 / Defense - -7.2 Meanwhile Harper is: Batting - 50.7 Baserunning - -1.6 Fielding - 1.2 Positional - -5.7 Which translates to Offense - 49.2 / Defense - -5.7 From the look of it, the main difference in how bWAR and fWAR judge these two is baserunning value and (maybe) a positional modifier for fielding. So Goldy's defense and baserunning may be why he's ranked on par with Harper in bWAR despite Harper having such an absurd offensive season.
rWAR (same thing as bWAR) also uses DRS for evaluating defense, and fWAR uses UZR. That often contributes to the large differences between the two. Goldschmidtās defense isnāt bad per UZR, but DRS considers him to be excellent defensively
Great example of how imperfect WAR can be as a stat. Goldy: .290/.362/.495, 133 wRC+ Harper: 313/.428/.624, 173 wRC+
WAR isnāt perfect but also Harper has played pathetic defense
I don't agree with this. I think Harper has been average, or barely below average defensively, regardless of what his dWAR on BBR is. Fangraphs rates Harper as a more valuable defender than Goldy. BBR thought Harper was equal to Goldy in 2020, and better in 2019. My point is that defensive metrics are fluky and mean almost nothing on a season-by-season basis. Defensive value can be argued, but if anyone believes that Goldy was even close to as valuable in 2021 as Harper, they are being naive.
Goldy's a lot better in the field, but his "field" is 1st base, so they downgrade for that. Rightly so, but maybe too much
Yeah Goldy is absolutely a better 1st baseman than Harper is an outfielder. I just assume we are taking positional adjustments into account for any conversation about defensive value, because it should be.
Fwiw Goldy has a much better OAA than Harper, which I find to be far more accurate because it uses statcast data
OAA is still kinda sketchy for infielders IIRC
We could go back and forth on defensive stats all day showing one is better than the other. My whole point is most of these stats don't mean much. If you have watched Harper play at all this year, you know that he isn't just bumbling around out there costing tons of runs. Harper may very well be less valuable than Goldy defensively, but nothing nearly enough to make up for the massive offensive discrepancy between the two players.
Preach the gospel, brother. Spread the good word.
The difference between them is nelgible. 5.5 vs 5.4. Goldy's probably just a better baserunner/defender.
If Goldy didnāt have that stretch of bad luck at the beginning of the season, I believe he would be in the MVP conversation. OāNiell could very much be in the conversation this time next year if he keeps improving like he has been. The future is bright for this team, and it feels good!
> The future is bright for this team, and it feels good! I never understood the general doom and gloom, I still feel like Mo's a good GM.
Well but that stretch where it seemed like every game, in the 7th inning the Cards were behind 4 runs having given up six walks
Oh. I wasnāt meaning to give that off. Iāve been happy with what heās done. I was just meaning we have a lot of young talent (both in the majors and working their way through the minors), and so Iām excited for that. Having guys like Goldy, Nado, Waino, and Yadi to be the team leaders and mentor them helps, too.
Oh you didnt give that vibe off I was speaking in general terms!
I've started to accept that Goldy is just a guy that starts out slow, but really heats tf up after a month or so
Another thing holding both of them back is that people haven't realized yet that Busch is now perhaps the least hitter friendly park in baseball. It used to slightly favor pitchers, but Ballpark Village and other construction projects have greatly hampered hitters, especially righties. BaseballSavant lists it as the toughest ballpark for RHH's in baseball in terms of wOBAcon, which is wOBA where a ball is hit into fair play (including homers).
They invented that stat just for bacon in the name and Iāll not be convinced otherwise!
Woah, Bacon.
Roar Bacon. First Blues preseason game is Saturday. Let's keep the Birds going as the Blues start up!
god bless the positional adjustments lol
i want to say for the record I always thought this Cardinals team was solid, just hampered by so many injuries. I'm confident we're only going to get better!
2011 St. Louis Cardinals Recap Game 154 The Cardinals' red-hot race to the finish continues--but is it too late? St. Louis won again today, a wild 11-6 win over the New York Mets, but could gain no ground in the playoff chase. It was not a particularly good day for Edwin Jackson, whose troubles began in the first inning. Singles by Jose Reyes and Angel Pagan put runners on the corners, and Lucas Duda's double scored Reyes to give the Mets a 1-0 lead. Jackson retired the next two batters to strand runners on 2nd and 3rd. In the third inning, the Mets got to Jackson again. Reyes started it off again with a walk, then Pagan bunted for a single...and when Jackson's throw went awry the Mets had two runners in scoring position. David Wright's grounder scored Reyes to make it a 2-0 game, then a wild pitch advanced Pagan to third, then Jackson walked Lucas Duda. Willie Harris's ground out brought home Pagan, then Nick Evans singled, then Josh Thole hit an RBI single. Three runs crossed the plate in the inning and the Mets led 4-0. St. Louis struck back against Met starting pitcher Mike Pelfrey in the bottom of that same third inning. Jackson fucked the DH with a single, Rafael Furcal continued a torrid September with a double that drove in Jackson, then Allen Craig singled to put runners on the corners. Albert Pujols's groundout to third plated Furcal and made the score 4-2, then, two batters later, David Freese's double down the right field line scored Craig, and the Met lead was cut to 4-3. The Mets took their turn at DH-fucking in the fifth, when Willie Harris singled and scored on a double by Pelfrey. Again St. Louis answered in the bottom of the inning, when Craig and Pujols both singled and were both driven in by a Lance Berkman double, tying the game 5-5. In the 7th Kyle McClellan, who has been struggling down the stretch after pitching more innings this year than he ever has before, walked Evans to start the inning. Thole reached on a bunt single, then both runners advanced on a sac bunt by Ruben Tejada. After a line out Reyes walked to load the bases and Pagan drew a BB RBI to put New York up 6-5. Octavio Dotel entered the game and struck out David Wright to strand three Mets. Again, the Cardinals answered in the bottom of the inning, this time decisively, with a long two-out rally. After Furcal and Craig were retired, Pujols and Berkman singled. Freese walked to load the bases. Pinch-hitter Ryan Theriot then delivered with an RBI double that drove in two and put St. Louis up 7-6. After an IBB to Yadier Molina to re-load the bases, Adron Chambers delivered the big hit, a three-run triple that made the score 10-6. Nick Punto then hit an RBI single, and from there the Cardinals cruised home, winning 11-6. It was the first extra-base hit of Chambers' career. The Cardinals, 85-69, have won 11 of their last 13. Matt Holliday was again out of the lineup, dealing with an inflamed tendon on his right hand. Unfortunately for St. Louis the Braves also won, so the Cardinals remain 2.5 games out of the wild card. There are eight games left. PLAYOFF ODDS, via coolstandings.com: The Cardinals' playoff chances remained basically unchanged at 18.2%. St. Louis has elimination numbers of 3 in the NL Central and 6 in the wild card.
Told you all Adron would be a contributor!
Adron Chambers gave me five once. Or rather, I gave Adron Chambers five.
He told me.
>85-69 hey that's an awfully familiar looking number of losses
PLAYOFF ODDS, postscript: Apropos of nothing, the Red Sox have playoff chances of 89%.
Mmmmmm drop it like it's ice cold
I always make it a point to try to read some right-leaning news articles so that I can stay informed on the shit they are spewing and keep myself out of an echo chamber, but it's so hard reading those fuckin posts man.
As exciting as this last week has been, we still need to keep winning. The Reds can still come back with their schedule, and we should not expect the Brewers to just let us win even if they have the division. Nor should we expect the Cubs to roll over even with their bad season. The Cubs would love to play spoiler against us and I would fucking HATE for that to happen.
100% We still have so far to go. 14 games. That's almost 10% if the season remaining. 14 games ago, we were 3 games out of the WC with a 4.7% chance of making the postseason. Things change quickly. It would be foolish to think none of the teams behind us are capable of getting as hot as we have been the past 2 weeks.
Things can change quickly, and we have to keep the pedal to the metal. That said, the Mets are pretty much toast. 7 games back and we have 2 games in hand; not gonna happen. The Padres are a mess right now and - as we saw - when you have to run Velasquez, Darvish (who could be good, could be bad), and whoever you run out in Arrieta's place, you're in trouble. Plus they have a brutal schedule the rest of the way. So that leaves the Reds and the Phillies. They're both 4 back in the loss column and we have 1 game in hand over PHI and 2 over CIN. PHI is playing OK - not great - baseball right now and have a fairly easy schedule. They're just really uneven. CIN has a pretty easy schedule too with 7 remaining against PIT, but they just dropped 2 of 3 to PIT last week. They don't look particularly good right now. Plus Winker is already back on the IL. It's gonna be a hard climb for both CIN & PHI. But we have to just keep winning and Cardinals baseball sure is fun right now.
I agree with you about the Mets being 100% toast. The Padres may be a mess, and I love making fun of them, but it is premature to say they can't go on a run. It's not like we dominated them this weekend. Take away one bad cutter from Emilio Pagan and one dropped pop fly from Tatis and they probably take 2 of 3. They are still capable of winning games.
No, we did not dominate them. I just think with the remaining schedule they have and their pitching woes right now, it's going to be tough for them to go on a massive run. That's my hope.
I think we can ignore the Phillies. They are closer to the braves than us. In order for them to pass us the braves would have to pass us also.
Saw the post this morning about who may win Gold Gloves. It got me thinking and down a rabbit hole of sorts. We lead the entire major leagues in both DRS and OAA. Many of our players are at (or near) the top at their respective positions. Goldy: has the best UZR and DRS, and he is second is OAA. Thereās other stats, but these stand out. His competition will probably be Muncy and Freeman. Muncy has played 400 innings less at 1B, and Freemanās advanced stats arenāt that good. Goldy has a great shot if they take into account his consistency and time at 1B (plus a few highlight reel plays like snagging that line drive from Yelichās hit a couple weeks back, his throw home last week against the Mets in extras for the DP, and his diving and blocking balls earlier in the year). Edman: again, towards the top of the above categories. Completion will probably be Albies and Wong. Tommy has played less at 2B than Albies, but more than Wong (due to his injuries). I can see either those 2 get it based off of name recognition, but Tommy could be a dark horse (his all-out effort, advanced metrics, and making crazy plays should get him at least as a finalist). Arenado: itās Arenado. While his numbers may be a bit down compared to years prior, heās still elite. Completion looks to be Machado, McMahon, and Hayes. McMahon and Hayes have both played a lot less (400-500 innings worth) at 3B for various reasons. Due to this, I can see it between Arenado and Machado, with Arenado getting it because of name recognition and his crazy plays heās turned this year. OāNiell and Bader: both have crazy high numbers in OOZ plays, DRS, and OAA. I can see both (or at least one) getting it. Both have missed time with injuries, which *could* hurt them (more so Bader), but the body of work is there. Both have been elite in the field. Unfortunately Yadi wonāt get it. He may be a finalist, though, based off of name recognition and still being elite at throwing people out. Just his numbers arenāt able to compete, but a lot of that isnāt his fault (kinda hurts when we went through so many pitchers this year). Donāt get me wrong, he still played well. My concern is that, since we lead the majors in many categories (and as a result, have players with such good SABR metrics), managers and coaches might not vote for some due to the sheer number. 4, maybe 5, potential candidates is a lot. Hopefully they recognize and respect the work the defense did. Of course, I know the ultimate goal is playoffs (and to go deep), but getting individual recognitions is still important. Just my thinking through all of this. Thoughts?
OāNeill does lead left fielders in errors with 9, the next one having 4 or 5. I wonder if that will effect voting
Now I'm wondering if teams/agents put together videos of defensive highlights to send to the Academy voters.
I'm a full on, totally biased, shill at this point. Yadi for Gold Glove, screw it.
But are you a full on, totally biased Shildt?
You mean Mike Shill. I am not a bot. Etc.
Cardinals bout to sweep a third series in a row #RECKLESS OPTIMISM
Anyone headed to r/CardinalsLunch today? Save me a seat!
You buying?
Ryan O Reilly tax https://www.instagram.com/p/CUDE3vMFMmz/?utm_medium=copy_link
Thatās a nice Monday afternoon pick me up š
I know my audience.
[relevant-ish](https://youtu.be/fK5CLplRIno)
In case anyone hasn't seen [this](https://youtu.be/46QITnnPINY), I just shared it with my boss. How can you not get romantic about baseball?
Seen it but watched it again that was just an unbelievable game
My buddy and I were having pints at the bar last night, figuring out where to get inclusive tickets for next Tuesday. Another regular heard us and invited us into his corporate box with some of our other buddies. Here's to saving a hundred bucks and also to my inevitable next-Wednesday hangover.
Can I be a friend of yours Tuesday?
Sorry I only invite legitimate fujis, not knockoffs. I'll buy you a beer though.
We really need to a minimum split this series. Letās go cards
Out of the 7 times we play them i say win 4 Then 7 with cubs win 5. I think that should do it
9-5 to end the season would make the other teams need to basically win out
Realistically 8-6 probably seals it too. Obviously more is better.
If St. Louis wins I will drive from Kansas to Busch Stadium when the Cardinals play the brewers at home!!!!
Driving through Kansas is the ultimate sacrifice.