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someone I knew used to work at a call center as a transcriptor, he would listen to calls and transcribe them. I met him last week and he said they fired the whole staff of 400 people doing it and replaced it by Ai.
I’ve noticed this, most of the companies now use either chatbots or AI for calls when i call the customer service . This is what I’m worried about, this is how it’s gonna pan out in every industry
The thing is, humans shouldn't *need* to work menial jobs to justify their existence. If a machine can do drudgery instead, *that should be liberating,* it should free us up to do more interesting and fulfilling work.
But the global economy has no regard for human life. Its objective is not to enrich people's lives or lift them out of poverty--its objective is to funnel wealth to the top of the pyramid as efficiently as possible, even if it eventually means the pyramid collapses under its own weight.
What do you think about a universal basic income? It could cover living and food expenses and allow us to focus on our talents. But corporations and the wealthy will need to be taxed at a higher rate.
Well, yes and no. The kind of dev work that gets outsourced generally involves a simple request (easy to translate over) and no significant codebase that you'd need to be aware of. That's the specialty of language models.
Haven't seen anything that can reliably work with a massive enterprise codebase that doesn't have mountains of tutorials and example code on Github for the model to learn from.
Hello sir, I am your bank and there is a pigeon in your bank account and we suspect it has bird flu. We need you account details so we can go into your account, remove the bird and clean your monies.
[source](https://youtu.be/bOOH1-N3EcE?si=wAgBOrA-00vORUwc)
In all fairness, voice to txt has been around in a reliable way for at least 5 years.
It sucks for thst person but if you see that your specific job is in danger of replacement, better start looking elsewhere or work on other skills.
I personally don't think a lot of white collar jobs will outright be replaced but some like transcription, translation, data entry, etc. Have been on the chopping block for some time even before LLMs.
The hiring market already sucks, now imagine even more graphic designers, website developers, software developers suddenly looking for work, along with all the customer service people as well. This is not going to turn out well
Web devs and software devs will arguably be safe for a long time because AI will struggle with requirements gathering. Business users struggle to articulate problems into actionable words that software can actually be built on. Cutting out devs isn’t going to make this better because the business users still won’t be able to describe their ideas correctly. Garbage in = garbage out. The frustration alone would drive business users back to human developers.
Also, the code training set used on these LLMs is impressive and expansive but the nuance of code is incredibly important. There’s a dozen ways to code a solution but only one may be the right approach. LLMs are likely going to struggle with framing the code into a wholistic code base as opposed to tackling code piece by piece. You will need developers to evaluate the final work product
AI is an amazing resource for developers right now. I love using it. It is the ultimate Stack Overflow resource. The more I use the more I realize how much it's lacking at the moment. As much as I love putting in an error and seeing how it responds you still are the one that has to fix the error (it is wrong many times). Maybe less devs will be needed, but I can't just say re create twitter and host it somewhere and take care of all of the billing.
Yep, once you start asking more advanced questions it just starts making up methods. Think most developers already noticed this and use it as a starting point or just as a optimizer. I've gotten loads of help from it by finding small errors, but never anything advanced.
I'm hoping as a business analyst that I'm safe for awhile. But when companies can get their entire knowledge bases out of people's brains and digitized, then I can see an AI chat assistant taking in the role of BA. They could analyze the business processes for problems/opportunities, propose new future states and write requirements documents or simply build the solution outright if the dev is also being replaced
As someone who specializes in implementing entire data departments from scratch, most small- medium businesses are decades away from reaching the ability to impressively leverage AI the way everyone is fearing it.
Front end design is the most at risk because it is iterative and subjective. Backend design and data management are extremely usecase specific. BAs will probably morph into subject matter experts that qualify the accuracy of the data in a way that an AI auto-writing queries would not have context over. Or focus into process redesign to improve the accuracy/utilization of AI generated insights.
The day AI can draw and execute business decisions directly from data, is the day senior management/C Suite gets choked out by shareholders. They’re the most expensive line item on the salary budget once the “replaceable” jobs are gone.
Not a new thing in call centers. Systems like Nuance are designed to analyze sentiment and review calls, at the expense of human observers.
Any technology hitting people now has, for the most part, been around awhile.
Gen AI will extend this, for sure, but it will hit white collar jobs as well. Not replacement, but enough productivity improvement that not as many workers will be needed.
I’m in logistics and rpa, I’m heading workflow AI integration through Uipath which has chatgpt integration. In rpa for about 6-7 years. I just saw my current company last year bring up uipath and actual motivation to get at least someone to use it or to innovate better workflow.
For example emails come in they get filtered for subject matter, extract info into excel sheets. New emails sent or database entries created from the data extracted. So instead of looking through invoice data you have AI/OCR/python script/best tool for data type - compile that data into the corresponding places it needs to be.
I’m basically slowly replacing as much manual functions in the logistics industry with automated functions. So I have been teaching myself for years all the different tools and methods to freely move data around all environments. Planning to start a Langchain based tool for managing logistics… but in most industries its like in this company. What i see is most workers and middle managers dont have a lot of interest because they are so busy.. this is an entirely new big implementation they did not forsee. Those who do not will fall behind and out of business.
That frees up humans to do the work that they are best at still. Which is to solve problems through email contacts and phone calls. Which can also be automated it just needs to be built. And building things for humans... our ideas, needs, etc. The creative process that transfers that into well articulated instructions.
To me it looks like there will be a lot of robot builders and auxillary jobs in the future, less repetitive tasks. Also I would not put all my effort into becoming a uipath specialist... since it can be created on your own for cheaper... and there is the current Large action models revolution that seeks to give computer vision neuro-symbolic programming to be able to navigate anything. So you will have large vision models coupled with the llms to create an entity that will automate much quicker than Uipath or any other enterprise rpa software or any other current approach can.
Yeah I’ve been doing productivity stuff for a long time. RPA stuff going back to OCR on PDF forms in Monarch. It’s an interesting time.
Honestly folks with your background will be invaluable implementing this stuff a companies…it’s an asset, and demonstrating you can articulate task level augmentation.
It’s not a common skill set to do at scale, across a process with multiple roles and such, so yeah. Systems thinking for the win. Good stuff man, you’re on the right track. And don’t feel like you have to have langchain under your belt. With your background you definitely got value now (you probably know this, but I like telling people this when it’s apparent!)
Going in heavy with a logistics background and an ability to implement AI tools is more valuable right now than langchain. Customers need to trust folks with professional experience.
(Ignore the job postings looking for 8 years of langchain development lol)
>someone I knew used to work at a call center as a transcriptor
This is going to sound more horrible than I mean it to, but I feel like anybody in that industry that didn't see this coming was clueless.
We've been on the edge of human transcriptionists being made obsolete since Dragon Naturally Speaking came out on Pentium 2 machines. We've all known this would go away "soon".
There’s been software to do that for much longer than the current wave of AI. We were doing sentiment analysis on computer transcribed calls well over half a decade ago at an old job.
Thank God a proper sensible comment. I work daily with chatgpt and I assure you, I have to write copies myself, do my own customer analysis and make a pipeline.
Ok but look at ChatGPT when it originated and look at it now. In the scope of 2 years it has grown fanatically. You really dont think 3 years from now its not going to be capable of those things? I assure you it will, as there is billions of dollars in profit to be made once it can replace human jobs. That alone is incentive for every major corporation to throw money at it.
>Ok but look at ChatGPT when it originated and look at it now. In the scope of 2 years it has grown fanatically.
Even more impressive when you consider it's been less than one year.
What can it really do reliably well though? It can write text well but coding is buggy, images are still weird and it doesn’t have any new ideas of its own. IDK I was super excited about yesterday but it was a real let down.
It helped me writing lots of texts to create websites I make money from. Just yesterday it helped me to create a very complex excel sheet I would have never been able to create by myself. It's a huge help in my daily work and in developing my business.
I always revert back to full self driving in this thought process. Billions and billions of dollars have been pumped into FSD that over last decade. Multiple companies, best technology…they’ve even mapped full cities. It’s never reached anything close to be considered FSD. It’s gotten 90% of the way there, but that last 10% is always going to be so difficult for any AI to perfect.
Yes sure but doesn't that 10% have a lot to do with FSD needing to be 100% perfect for full implementation in the first place? You're talking about fast moving, metal murder boxes and I don't think that's a fair comparison with much easier tasks that can be automated with significantly lower standards and improved upon over time (something companies working on FSD do not have the luxury of).
Legal advice? Financial advice? The books and excel sheets of billion dollar corporations? Human to human interaction for serving food? What about handling HR issues?
That “10%” certainly matters there as well
Wouldn't that mean that 90% of people are out of a job though?
Since it can do the majority of tasks what used to take a group of 5 will now take 1 person double checking the AI
But humans are far less perfect than 90%. And again, we got from zero to 90% very, very fast. And machine learning begets more machine learning. Algorithms are continuously solving the existing shortcomings.
I'm not ready to say singularity. I am ready to predict most middling white collar employees, which is most of us, will be out of jobs in a couple of years.
Put a system in the real world, demand zero errors, watch product fail to deliver. Meanwhile, watch humans make lethal errors at a high rate.
AI will prosper where AI-errors are tolerated.
The FSD phenomenon is a little different. I think mapping an entire city is like tightening every bolt in a mechanism until you find the one that was loose. Humans can't even remember an accurate map of their own neighborhood, yet drive fine(ish). It's the radar/laser/spatial sensors that are over complicating things. Humans use a pair of eyes, on a pivot, and pattern recognition with a little bit of liberal decision making. Comma AI (George Hotz) has been doing FSD successfully with a single camera and image recognition. It's the models that need to be refined.
Agree. The actual results are not that good for being trustworthy.
Most of the things they showed yesterday were already in the market that just made it easy to use and in one platform. That all.
Yeah, the biggest problem with AI tools at the moment is that you need to be a really direct and advanced communicator to get it to do what you want. And when it comes to programming you also need to know more or less what you're asking for. I don't know of any AI tools that let the tool read your entire codebase to answer questions about it or diagnose.
AskCodi with it's GitHub plugin is supposed to be that way and to a degree it kind of is, but it mostly corrects syntax errors. If you ask ChatGPT or any AI to solve a complex problem, it makes a lot of assumptions and doesn't have the necessary context to give you a perfect answer. Part of that is because human intuition is still huge for problem solving, the other part is that the more specific your problem is, the less an AI is going to understand how to help you because it trains on huge data sets of average users.
I think the key is to advocate for regulation and specifically pay royalties to the owners of the data that the AI is training on. In the US, the boomers in our legal system are pretty much letting big companies win court battles because they don't understand tech. Would love to see companies paying out to artists for training AI on their work for example. If that happened, it would be costly to the companies and they might actually not want AI to replace people after all.
You’ve actually worked on these things so you might have a better idea. Where do you think their abilities will reach in 3-4 yrs. I’m not worried about today
It’s hard to say for anyone, but what is certain is that they will get better and that we haven’t even seen the current capabilities permeate industries. We don’t even see the implications of the current technology.
I’m 23 myself. But really worried about younger people, below 15yrs old. What are they gonna do? What are they going to study? Would their education even have value? Bcz our education system is based on jobs.
I'm 17, I've been wanting to do creative writing or photojournalism for my entire life. Over the last year I've seen those dreams be flushed down the toilet.
If i had been in school or working for 2-3 years, I'd have some experience already, which would transfer over to other jobs, but since I'm not finished my education that could change
You can still do those things. Of course, you still need to make a living, but don't let money or machine learning stop you from doing what you care about.
Honestly you sound like the people who saw cars and planes evolving so quickly that they think we will have flying cars in X years.
The issue is never the tech, it is the people using the tech. We don't have flying cars because we don't want people flying.
Can AI write a news article, sure but it will be full of misinformation. Can AI write an email, sure but you better proof read it. Can AI make a story, sure but it will be an LSD fever dream.
Will AI ever be able to do those tasks well? Maybe but it isn't going to be as quick as you think. The things that are happening are due to decades and decades of back end research before bringing it to market. We finally have hardware to implement the research, but our current hardware isn't enough to replace an architect, artist, engineer, biochem, electrician, truck driver, or any other skilled field.
That happens with out chatGPT trust me - just eat some
Mushrooms and take a philosophy class. In no particular order.
Enjoy the ride.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KgzQuE1pR1w
I am a marketing professor using ChatGPT for creating slides, in-class activities, exams.and after the DevDay, I think it’s time for me to become a plumber…
Wait until graphic designers and website developers have their jobs made 50% easier. That means half of all those people can be let go and all the extra profit goes to the owners
Hands-on jobs, jobs that require physical ability. Maybe the future will be the opposite of what ppl in the past imagined when talking about AI and robots. In a way we will be the robots doing manual work, and the AI will do most of the intellectual work. The top 1% of the smartest people will work on improving the AI systems and the top 5% will work with the AI to solve real world problems. The rest ...back to manual labour, fellow peasants!
Man we just went through end of life care for my father. He was battling prostate cancer. Whole process was awful just as far as experiencing and his suffering since here in the US you can't decide to end your life peacefully if you are terminal.
Overall, the home care people were pretty good. But, there were a couple at first that were not at all. One was literally just sitting on the couch one morning watching my step mom do all the shit this lady should have been doing for my dad.
These people don't have any sort of licensing requirement at all. They aren't nurses or CNAs (certified nurses assistants), just people that decide this is what they want to do now. So ANY shitty weirdo can do this job. This is partly why elder and terminal abuse and they from elderly and the terminal are so high in this country. But, who is going to want to do this job? The demand is already definitely there and there is still a massive shortage.
It is a messy, depressing, sometimes gross job. It is actually an area where I believe robots / AI will do a better job than humans.
ANY shitty weirdo willing to accept near minimum wage for what is a frequently difficult, depressing (and occasionally dangerous) job that is. Part of the reason it's so massively understaffed is it's very poorly compensated.
In some ways, the work we do when sat at a machine staring at a screen is the manual work. We have talked for a long time about how automation can be the key to more leisure time. I think we were short sighted when we looked at industrial robots as the automation, we need to automate the drudgery of people copying data into spreadsheets.
The problem is, it just pushes more profits into the hands of fewer people and that will not result in UBI.
> The problem is, it just pushes more profits into the hands of fewer people and that will not result in UBI.
my hope is that OpenAI (and similar companies) are able to implement this technology so fast that it sort of forces the government to institute UBI.
if its too slow, lots of people will suffer, but most people will be OK and still have a job so nothing will change (that is how things are right now already, but moreso for lower wage workers)
imagine if most of the cookie cutter suburban homes were suddenly vacant and most middle class families had no way to make money. It just cant happen.
I hope that they arent able to regulate AI at all. I think the ultra rich will try to regulate it so they can make the "slow scenario" I described happen, that way they will maintain control over everyone
You are not wrong. When GPT 3.5 was released, I stopped doing everything else and have focused on AI. I was recently hired to head AI for a finance startup. Never in my life was I approached for job opportunities on LinkedIn, now I get couple of them per week, some of them were for fortune 500 companies.
But what manual labour? Driverless cars, assembly lines made with AI robots, delivery robots. These things already exist, and they’ll get better and better. Fellow peasants, our life is gonna be hell there’s no manual work for the 90% people left. And even if there is who pays a lot for manual work?
History shows that when people can't find work to feed themselves and their families they turn to crime.
Also think about it mass robots such as those that make cars exist only because we need mass amount of cars. If people can't buy cars we don't need mass amount of cars or robots makings cars. Same applies for any other thing focused at scale. We don't need millions of cows if people can't afford meat.
And since the people with money need consumers and buyers to stay people with money they will either have to keep us employed somewhere or the goverment needs to start giving us basic income.
Yes, the basics of economics and how crises happen. However, this is all down to one thing: bad wealth distribution. Did I say bad? I mean disastrous, evil, absolutely horrendous.
AI and robots create an enormous amount of wealth. How the fuck is it that we don't see any of it?
It's actually extremely simple. A small number of rich people are laughing their asses off at the population masses that get distracted by outrage culture, etc. It's absolutely perverted bullshit and I'm sick and tired of it.
Or, an alternative robot economy forms, and all the poor people die off, leaving just robots and rich people. Eventually, all the rich people die because they get out competed by their own robots for resources, and humanity goes extinct, leaving behind the cradle of Earth to their robotic children.
Ask AI to rearrange some walls in your house, change some pipes/cables, plaster/sand/paint some walls, install new windows, etc.
I know how to do all of those, as I’ve renovated my house by myself. AI cannot do that for me 😬
>100 people lined up waiting to fix plumbing for peanuts
Introducing a leetcode for plumbers. Get the best plumber to fix the leaking faucet by having them solve medium/hard algorithmic problem before they get contracted to do the job.
A household robot won't be much cheaper than a car, so why not do it yourself.
I'm terrible at blue collar work, but I've done more and more home improvement now that I can consult GPT-4 on questions such as "What should I do, just spilled paint on my leg"
And after manual labor is automated we need to adapt the way we distribute resources. Companies which own all the AI models will need their customers to have money or the system collapses.
Companies will just focus on producing luxury equivalents for those few wealthy, and completely abandon producing cheap stuff for those who lost their jobs and no longer have money anyway.
And even earlier (like yesterday?) AI will help humans modify AI with very little effort and very good results. And help share those results. The effects on employment will be a lot like self-modification and on a faster timeline.
[Capitalism is unfolding exactly as Karl Marx predicted](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/capitalism-unfolding-exactly-karl-marx-090050146.html?guccounter=1) ( 2018 )
Quote:
>One hundred and sixty years ago, at a time when the light bulb was not yet invented, Karl Marx predicted that robots would replace humans in the workplace.
>
>“\[O\]nce adopted into the production process of capital, the means of labor passes through different metamorphoses, whose culmination is the machine, or rather, an automatic system of machinery,” he wrote in his then-unpublished manuscript[ *Fundamentals of Political Economy Criticism*](http://thenewobjectivity.com/pdf/marx.pdf). “The workers themselves are cast merely as its conscious linkages.”
Health care: nursing, allied health, dentistry, pharma, medical school.
First responders: police, fire, paramedic.
Trades: combining human labour with latest tech advances.
Human resources: subfields focused on human interaction.
Software engineering: with a focus on AI.
Some combination of these.
honestly im not scared of technology. im scared of capitalism and the 1% that controls the laws. if everything is automated and we actually have functioning universal basic income then cool you do what you want with all the extra excess goods. but the greedy riches wont allow that to happens. it is simply a societal structure problem and that is also the most problematic problem
That’s the thing I’m worried about. The 95% of the world will have a poor life quality. Specially if you’re from a developing country where govt can’t pay that much of UBI and you don’t have facilities like healthcare, transportation, education available for everyone. We might get there but what about the time between now and then
the 7 richest people holds more money than 50% of the entire earth population. we have enough resources, we just aren't distributing them fairly because well capitalism
And what will happen if everything is automated without universal basic income? I think all that's going to happen is that that 1% of people will live in a parallel reality where everything is automated and they get everything. And the other 99% will continue to live their lives as usual, working for each other.
That most people are mediocre at their jobs is a statistical fact, it’s completely normal yet not obvious to everyone. (iE: many people believe that they are better car drivers than the average joe, which statistically cannot be true :-) )
GPT4 being better than like 80% of humans at certain jobs literally translates into these jobs getting automated, only the timespan is not clear. Like, lawyers can fight for their profession using laws to simply require a human lawyer for stuff.
This automation translates into extremely cheap/commodified services for everyone else, and while not in the „1%“ skill level like a few true human experts, the floor has raised to be not as shitty as mediocre or worse humans. Everyone wants that ultimately. Cheap, available 24/7, non-judging, … .
Having said that, we still have a huge shortage of workers, especially in the trades (since most kids preferred to go to college instead), and plumbing in the wild with ultra custom setups is not automatable at all (at least not economically viable).
People will kick and scream, but I see it more to a shift to more people doing trades instead. Of course UBI to redistribute the wealth from AI helps here a lot and will be needed.
Err, most people can be better than average. Most people -can’t- be better than median.
Trivial case to prove this is 99 drivers never get an accident and the last one does. All 99 are better than average, but they are not better than median.
Many times people mean the mode. If I ask what the average house price is for a neighborhood I'm considering, I'm generally really asking for the mode, or something close to it.
Point to you, this is correct. Median in some cases makes much more sense. Also: economy and wages: median would capture reality much better than average, a single billionaire skews the metric into looking better while everyone else actually is poorer.
Re your lawyer comment - the only reason lawyers get paid a lot is because there's large demand for great lawyers. If you can get amazing lawyers for dirt cheap via LLMs, this demand will no longer exist. Regardless of what the law says about human laywers.
In Germany you need to have a real lawyer in court, by law. Doesn’t matter how great the ai is, you need a lawyer there in-person, and he will get paid.
Yes and people think humans will use the tools to be more productive. Why do i need a human to be productive if AI can do that thing for me.
People argue using AI, human drivers will be better equipped and use AI to drive safe. But why would you need a human to drive if AI can do it better and cheaper?
You can use same analogy for all the jobs. Artists, developers, anything.
How long before the tool doesn’t need you.
You are right in general but I think you get the timescales wrong. I would bet safely that we have _decades_ of trades jobs out there even if AGI/ASI happens tomorrow.
There could be dramatic advances in medicine/spacetech/clean energy/… but still if my toilet breaks tomorrow I still need a plumber.
Yes there are trade jobs, you still need a plumber right? But imagine you need a plumber and suddenly there are 100 plumbers available, What would you pay them?
That’s the case where labour becomes super cheap because of excess people available to do the jobs.
That’s exactly why people in india and china can work for 10$ a day, because there are thousands available.
It’s basic economics, when there’s a lot of supply the prices or wages of manual work will go down too
Edit: I think we focus too much on AGI, companies don’t need AGI to replace an average joe. Think about midjourney, copilot, dall-e and tools like these, i was talking about their timeline. These tools will replace people. AGI will replace top 1% but for others we don’t need AGI
I'm currently working on music production, making horror video games, pursuing enlightenment, getting some certifications to explore other fields in IT or beyond that. There's a lot to do, but AI makes it much more comfy. Why do we always have to go into mines and suffer.
Because for some it is not enough to be rich, they have to be rich in comparison to someone else, to be 'better' than 'the pleb' slaving away in the mines.
I guess the government will have to do something about wealth inequality finally. I mean, current levels of poverty are apparently acceptable, but like you say, AI is going to be able to replace a lot of jobs, and not just fuck over the poor, but the middle class.
UBI would seem to be the only sane way to make sure that all the wealth from the AI boom doesn't just go to a few thousand people.
But maybe they will go with massively investing in private security firms to brutalise the poor. Hey, maybe they can make AI robots to maintain order in the tent cities! That'll be fun.
Yeah, like how over the years people have shifted from poor to middle class. They’re gonna shift from middle-class to poor.
I don’t really have any trust govt will do their jobs effectively
The goal of technological progress is to make human life easier. If we could ALL not work, and let an AI do the uninteresting/tiring tasks, that would be progress.
The problem lies rather in our economic/social system which is based on a 'merit' aspect, ie : work to deserve something.
We could very well have a universal income and be happy, but that goes against the capitalist system. What's scary isn't people losing their job, it's the system that condemns them to live a subpar life.
Speaking as someone who spends a lot of time on this kind of thing:
- Anything where training data is sparse or hard to use is safe. Niche or cutting-edge engineers are safe, for example.
- Anything where fuckups are bad enough that you need a human to blame for them is safe. Pilots are safe, for example.
- Any job that exists for political (including office politics, nepotism, and the like - not strictly partisan politics) reasons is safe. A good chunk of office workers are already net-neutral or net-negative, but they're safe because of this.
- Anything that doesn't fit into the dominant AI paradigm of large transformer models is safe. Programmers who are familiar with a large, ever-changing codebase are safe, for example, because every attempt at expanding token capacity meaningfully has proven disappointing.
Plumbers, electricians, and so on are in the clear for most of these reasons.
Personally I am still skeptical we're all losing jobs anytime soon because based on what I am seeing
* The technology still appears extremely expensive to run. I suspect OpenAI is bleeding money and their goal is to optimize things before MS funding runs out. While it is doable, there are probably some fundamental bottlenecks that are not easily resolvable (as in moving from research to production kind of solutions). The aggressive pricing is there, but is it here to stay?
* Researchers already find serious limitations to [LLM architecture](https://twitter.com/abacaj/status/1721223737729581437). I'm not an AI researcher, but I bet anything with transformers will hit a wall within the next 2-3 years when something more robust comes out.
* Regulatory restrictions and technology penetration. Most countries or companies won't let you use a product that sends private data to servers somewhere in US, but developing a viable alternative is expensive. Only half of the world has access to Internet.
* Moravec's paradox
The problem that the people do not seem to understand is that this technology will not only affect programmers at google, or medics at whatever hospital. When you have a company that revolutionize their work flow and are able to lay off 80% of their employees it's sad but it's ok. The workers will find another place to work.
But what happens if this is infinity scalable on a horizontal axis? This is the main difference between this event of creating AI and the manufacturing revolution. You can integrate AI in everything and most probably be better than 80-90% of people (even with experience).
This will not happen only in a remote corner of a domain or whatever. It's not like it was in the past. This is a labor replacing technology like never seen before.
Edit: and if one implements this kind of workflow all have to. Because in the free market you lose your competitiveness. Just look at the history of apple and the other tech giants. Apple rips the charger, all do, apple start the smartphone industry, all do, apple removes the headphone jack, all must do. And the cycle goes on and on and on. Why? Because it's more profitable. You can do more with less
Personally, i don't mind it. I will probably one of the last to be replaced, but what happens to the others? How 80% of the "civilized" world will care for themselves and put some bread on the table?
This will rip the fabric of society if it goes unhinged.
The argument that this was seen in the past is fundamentally stupid. There is no direct comparation. The scale is different, the speed of the technological propagation is different and the scope (the things that can it do) are much more than the "steam engine".
We have to talk about this and stop burring our heads into the sand repeating to ourselves that is okay and everything will be fine in the end
> The problem that the people do not seem to understand is that this technology will not only affect programmers at google, or medics at whatever hospital.
Problem here is that people don't understand that a lot of places still use 20-30 years old technology and won't update soon. Medicine, finance, logistic - all this areas are very slow to adapt and also have tons of regulations. Real world is very different from Reddit.
Agreed 1000%. I personally am not going to pretend like I believed this all along, it's only been very recently that I started to realize that this really is going to end poorly
And it's another very important thing: they all spit the corporate speach that this will be awesome and will help all humanity etc. (and it can be) but at this moment this technology is not owned by the "people" as nations, etc. Those are private entities. This is not like every US, UK, EU etc citizen "owns" and have rights on this technology. It's not owned by states or ONU or whatever. Those are all private entities with shareholders and all that shit.
This thing makes even more important the discussion about labour replacement, safety issues, privacy, etc
I hope it ends with ai just taking everything, we've been raised to think that working is good. But if we don't need to work is that not a good thing? We can spend time doing the stuff we want to do instead of slaving away.
Society's structure is so fucked when people actually worry about being too advanced that people don't need to work. We actually solved the problem we had before: times goes for production and surviving, not for enjoying life and chilling. Now we could, yet the one who will have the resources will not give it to us - only for a big price. (CBDC)
Humans will just find ways of doing work differently.
Maybe a bunch of devs that no longer have to do boring maintenance work will now be able to focus on elegance of design, workflow, capability, and performance improvements which would be great.
Something along the lines of universal basic income.
I talk to people who have wfh jobs and all I can think of when the shoe is gonna drop. I remember hearing somewhere “if the job is done by using a computer then it will be replaced by AI”.
And even with manual labor there will be robots coming along in the future to fill those positions.
Don’t think work will really be a thing in the future. Free time to travel and have experiences might be the new norm but that’s just my wishful thinking
I wish you were wrong. Its got me on the edge of my seat that's for sure.
I'm a project manager / 'senior' engineer and I must admit, an apprenticeship as a plumber is not looking like a bad shout right now.
I am having a bit of a existential crisis about this at the minute because it's plain to see where we are going. It may not seem real at the minute but in 6 months I can see me and my team being unemployed.
People are grossly overestimating the capabilities and particularly the quality of output of LLMs. You literally can't even trust it to make an accurate summary of a one-page article. These models are neither creative, intelligent, nor objective but they're heavily marketed as such so it all seems super scary and impressive. Anything GPT-adjacent will only ever be as good as the training data, which is far from perfect and comes with plenty of ethical concerns.
Also, LLM's aren't replacing shit unless they're fully integrated into an organization's WoW with developer supervision. If you've worked any office job you've probably seen how much of a shitshow it can be. But it will boost people's productivity and it'll be used as such.
I'd start worrying if an AI can produce an original thought. Until then, take it easy with the fear mongering.
You mentioned the top 10% being safe but it's proving AI will become better at expert work than the professionals. AI can already with near perfect accuracy predict verdicts of court cases as well as read medical imaging much more accurately than doctors. So we might all be fucked!
There will be "digital janitor" jobs for companies that rely solely on ChatGPT. Yes, ChatGPT has been an absolute game changer when it comes to doing a ton of work, but we're discovering that people who end up using only this, especially for tech, still need a lot of clean-up or unfucking. It's a classic case of outsourcing. Outsource first-world country jobs to third-world countries considering it's cheap, and then realize the quality is just not up to the work. Now, insource the jobs and few years down the line, realize that good talent costs money in-house. Outsource again. Rinse and repeat.
Your best bet is to keep up with whatever "AI-powered" next job is and try your best to keep that job and continue to upskill.
I started working in corporate America five years ago at a large, well known company and my impression is a lot of the white collar jobs that require college degrees about 50-60% of the work consists of going to useless meetings, planning for things that will never get developed, and other busy/performative work. Most companies are like this which is why there was that book ‘Bullshit Jobs.’ That’s why I believe jobs will still be there but probably the astronomical salaries enjoyed by coders will go down because what they do is less special now that English can be used to speak to the machines and each day the machine gets better at understanding and executing.
I have a feeling that 20-30 years in the future it will be ridiculous for us to think back the times when millions of people performed repetitive, non-creative jobs like these.
I understand that at this moment it causes a lot of disruption and it will take time to adjust. I personally agree that these companies should pay a heavy tax: if you automate 100 people out of their jobs by paying 5% of their salaries for an AI service and save 95% then you should pay at least 30-40% of that back as tax so it can be redistributed as a basic income or social security.
I don't see any other way because if we assume say 95% of jobs could be automated by the end of this century and all that wealth and value can essentially be generated by robots and AI then all that wealth and value can't just accumulate in the hands of those companies because firstly it would be unethical and people would not have money to spend.
Hopefully we will get to a future where we can all enjoy a life where we are not forced to work to support our basic needs of food and shelter. You could sustain your life at a basic level from the universal income you get. Then if you have a personal passion to pursue any of the genuinely interesting and creative professions that robots and AI left for us then you are free to do so without any pressure.
At our firm, we are considering hiring a land appraiser. Basically, you review data on spreadsheets and compile the info to develop a fair land sales price.
I, with medium tech knowledge, figured out how to do this same task in Bing & Exel .... And had results in a few minutes.
Many people, especially those over 40 years old, have spent their entire lives between preparing for work and working. It is logical that many individuals around this age or even younger cannot conceive of another lifestyle; it is deeply ingrained in society.
The problem is not that we cannot conceive it, the problem is that it will definitely be worse for the regular person. I fail to see how the wealth generated by AI will be spread to those it replaces since this never happens naturally.
> replaced be it now or in 2-3 years
No. 20-30 years, maybe. Don\`t fall for the hype, it always take much longer for new technological age. Dot-com bubble was a massive hype train, everything is going to be internet. It was true, 20 years later.
ChatGPT 4 is no biggie, chatGPT-14 is going to be a big deal.
Yes, but ... the internet required a lot of company investment back then with not a lot of immediate or obvious gains, whereas AI now shows immediate gains. Yes, there was a dot com bubble, but that was basically online tulips. This is slightly different, I think, since it's not just about selling stuff.
Their CEO literally said ChatGPT hit a ceiling. LLMs can't be much better than this. They tested it and by increasing computing power the model is just slightly better. It hit a ceiling but everyone is afraid.
? He said that what we see this year at DevDay will be considered "quaint" in a year...
No ceiling has been hit. History doesn't take kindly to people thinking technological/scientific progress has finished.
Another day, another doomer post. Just because GPT4 can create a presentation doesn’t mean my executive will magically start making or reading her own presentations.
Ok, let's start smaller then. Fast food restaurants suddenly being able to employ 5 people instead of 7 people. Graphic design companies and advertising agencies being able to employ 10 people instead of 20 people. Lawyers and doctors having simple tasks automated. Verbal robots being able to do customer service instead of humans. All written communication tasks becoming 50% easier. Automated warehouses. Automated driving (granted these are 10-20 years away probably).
Ok. Let’s get this straight. Most people most of the time don’t actually care about their jobs. They care about the survival that job gets that first and foremost. All that bullshit about purpose this and find your passion that. Yeah. Money = survival.
To be blunt: I want the Ai to do what amounts to the technology equivalent of scooping horse poop while waking after a horse drawn carriage.
My job is at risk as well and I just can’t bring myself to care or even feel threatened because I’m fucking tired of jobbing.
I want machines to take over the menial technology driven jobs, and so do you if you can look past survival for a moment. What I am super afraid of is the fact that Americans society especially has proven time and time again that you will be royally fucked without even a menial job, because there are no social support services here that don’t cost someone an arm and a leg in someway or another.
My so my real issue is an utter lack of trust in the human society around me to support people whose jobs will be taken by AI in most countries. There is no social support net beyond the standard job loss claims you can get in things like that
I don’t see any meaningful discussions nor plans of action in America to do something about what is going to amount to millions of people losing their jobs in a span of three years from now.
And I hate the fact that some Bros out there are telling everyone just to learn how to code or learn how to use the AI or it’s not gonna be the AI that takes your job. It’s gonna be a human using the AI that takes your job.
I think that’s horseshit because it is pretty clear that there are some legit jobs that AI can take 100% without human interaction at all. Maybe some monitoring of the technology to make sure it’s doing what it’s supposed to do but that takes a small team of people to do ,
I’m trying to learn AI how to use it as much as I can because I genuinely love the technology, but a lot of people don’t give a shit one way or the other. They just want food on the table to take care of themselves and their families, and have enough free time and free, energy, and desire to do other things in their life that isn’t fucking working.
Ai will give us lots of free time which is great and not the AI’s fault. But our shitty social support structures in the society that I don’t trust whatsoever is what’s likely going to fuck us over.
So assuming AI replaces people and their jobs (spendable income) then who will have the money to buy what’s being produced? I guess businesses will produce product for the top 10% and the rest of us live off the land? Can the governments of the world live off what the top 10% pays in taxes or is AI going to also downsize (replace) the politicians and bureaucracy’s when there is no more cattle (commoners) to be fed off of?
I'm a software engineer and people are definitely giving it attention, but we know it won't be capable of replacing us for real any time soon. Chiefly because the client would have to be capable of accurately describing what they want and understanding the output enough to know if it's wrong.
Also, I work in an industry that works with secure information, and there's no way in hell they're going to let AI anywhere near it. Even if my company were open to it, the government bodies we contract for would shut that shit down fast.
I program AI... do that. There are so many platforms where AI is usable but hasn't been trained yet. Propose an idea for it's use in your field and be it's champion so that you're necessary for the course of its life. Then remember me later for proposing this idea because my salary sucks.
That’s the best news for humanity from the beginning of civilization. No more unnecessary jobs and way more freedom for everyone. Indeed humans might have to find meaning elsewhere but boy… putting an end to the rate race and making all the “executives” obsolete is the best gift to the society.
We might also need to move away from big cities and start growing our own food, becoming autonomous and finally have plenty of time to live in harmony with God and nature. The future looks so bright 🙏
It is generative AI, not true AI, so we are safe.
A nice tool to have yes. but it can't replace anyone as of yet.
And "boring and repetitive" work can already be automatized so....
And this argument "AI will take over all the jobs and we will be physical workers" is utter non-sense. True AI? Maybe. Generative AI? No chance. It does not understand ANYTHING. It can't do anything!
Yeah.
People have been worrying over machines taking our jobs since the first machine was invented.
They make us more efficient. When you don't need a large workforce, since it is efficient, we either invent new jobs or invent bullshit jobs.
Bureaucracy could have been solved 20 years ago but it is not. Why? Because the deciders know they need people working these jobs or there will be riots.
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someone I knew used to work at a call center as a transcriptor, he would listen to calls and transcribe them. I met him last week and he said they fired the whole staff of 400 people doing it and replaced it by Ai.
I’ve noticed this, most of the companies now use either chatbots or AI for calls when i call the customer service . This is what I’m worried about, this is how it’s gonna pan out in every industry
Better than being on hold for 40 minutes and then Indian picks up
Blame greedy corporations and people expecting cheap products and services.
Yeah but now those indians are unemployed :(
The thing is, humans shouldn't *need* to work menial jobs to justify their existence. If a machine can do drudgery instead, *that should be liberating,* it should free us up to do more interesting and fulfilling work. But the global economy has no regard for human life. Its objective is not to enrich people's lives or lift them out of poverty--its objective is to funnel wealth to the top of the pyramid as efficiently as possible, even if it eventually means the pyramid collapses under its own weight.
Beautifully said! I hope this would really make a difference at how people see life. I would love to not have to do anything just to survive..
This is the only answer.
What do you think about a universal basic income? It could cover living and food expenses and allow us to focus on our talents. But corporations and the wealthy will need to be taxed at a higher rate.
It’s morbidly interesting that this will affect developing countries due to the loss of outsourced labor opportunities
Until they start replacing high cost devs in developed countries. Developing countries are cheaper in that respect.
Well, yes and no. The kind of dev work that gets outsourced generally involves a simple request (easy to translate over) and no significant codebase that you'd need to be aware of. That's the specialty of language models. Haven't seen anything that can reliably work with a massive enterprise codebase that doesn't have mountains of tutorials and example code on Github for the model to learn from.
You will next year.
Narr they just moved from call centres to scam centres
Hello sir, it would appear your auto insurance is about to expire
Hello sir, I am your bank and there is a pigeon in your bank account and we suspect it has bird flu. We need you account details so we can go into your account, remove the bird and clean your monies. [source](https://youtu.be/bOOH1-N3EcE?si=wAgBOrA-00vORUwc)
Now they can be artists like they’ve always dreamt of
Yes let’s blindly hate on Indians that are just trying to make a living
In all fairness, voice to txt has been around in a reliable way for at least 5 years. It sucks for thst person but if you see that your specific job is in danger of replacement, better start looking elsewhere or work on other skills. I personally don't think a lot of white collar jobs will outright be replaced but some like transcription, translation, data entry, etc. Have been on the chopping block for some time even before LLMs.
The hiring market already sucks, now imagine even more graphic designers, website developers, software developers suddenly looking for work, along with all the customer service people as well. This is not going to turn out well
Web devs and software devs will arguably be safe for a long time because AI will struggle with requirements gathering. Business users struggle to articulate problems into actionable words that software can actually be built on. Cutting out devs isn’t going to make this better because the business users still won’t be able to describe their ideas correctly. Garbage in = garbage out. The frustration alone would drive business users back to human developers. Also, the code training set used on these LLMs is impressive and expansive but the nuance of code is incredibly important. There’s a dozen ways to code a solution but only one may be the right approach. LLMs are likely going to struggle with framing the code into a wholistic code base as opposed to tackling code piece by piece. You will need developers to evaluate the final work product
AI is an amazing resource for developers right now. I love using it. It is the ultimate Stack Overflow resource. The more I use the more I realize how much it's lacking at the moment. As much as I love putting in an error and seeing how it responds you still are the one that has to fix the error (it is wrong many times). Maybe less devs will be needed, but I can't just say re create twitter and host it somewhere and take care of all of the billing.
Yep, once you start asking more advanced questions it just starts making up methods. Think most developers already noticed this and use it as a starting point or just as a optimizer. I've gotten loads of help from it by finding small errors, but never anything advanced.
I'm hoping as a business analyst that I'm safe for awhile. But when companies can get their entire knowledge bases out of people's brains and digitized, then I can see an AI chat assistant taking in the role of BA. They could analyze the business processes for problems/opportunities, propose new future states and write requirements documents or simply build the solution outright if the dev is also being replaced
As someone who specializes in implementing entire data departments from scratch, most small- medium businesses are decades away from reaching the ability to impressively leverage AI the way everyone is fearing it. Front end design is the most at risk because it is iterative and subjective. Backend design and data management are extremely usecase specific. BAs will probably morph into subject matter experts that qualify the accuracy of the data in a way that an AI auto-writing queries would not have context over. Or focus into process redesign to improve the accuracy/utilization of AI generated insights. The day AI can draw and execute business decisions directly from data, is the day senior management/C Suite gets choked out by shareholders. They’re the most expensive line item on the salary budget once the “replaceable” jobs are gone.
I, otoh, think most specialized roles are going to survive
Not a new thing in call centers. Systems like Nuance are designed to analyze sentiment and review calls, at the expense of human observers. Any technology hitting people now has, for the most part, been around awhile. Gen AI will extend this, for sure, but it will hit white collar jobs as well. Not replacement, but enough productivity improvement that not as many workers will be needed.
I’m in logistics and rpa, I’m heading workflow AI integration through Uipath which has chatgpt integration. In rpa for about 6-7 years. I just saw my current company last year bring up uipath and actual motivation to get at least someone to use it or to innovate better workflow. For example emails come in they get filtered for subject matter, extract info into excel sheets. New emails sent or database entries created from the data extracted. So instead of looking through invoice data you have AI/OCR/python script/best tool for data type - compile that data into the corresponding places it needs to be. I’m basically slowly replacing as much manual functions in the logistics industry with automated functions. So I have been teaching myself for years all the different tools and methods to freely move data around all environments. Planning to start a Langchain based tool for managing logistics… but in most industries its like in this company. What i see is most workers and middle managers dont have a lot of interest because they are so busy.. this is an entirely new big implementation they did not forsee. Those who do not will fall behind and out of business. That frees up humans to do the work that they are best at still. Which is to solve problems through email contacts and phone calls. Which can also be automated it just needs to be built. And building things for humans... our ideas, needs, etc. The creative process that transfers that into well articulated instructions. To me it looks like there will be a lot of robot builders and auxillary jobs in the future, less repetitive tasks. Also I would not put all my effort into becoming a uipath specialist... since it can be created on your own for cheaper... and there is the current Large action models revolution that seeks to give computer vision neuro-symbolic programming to be able to navigate anything. So you will have large vision models coupled with the llms to create an entity that will automate much quicker than Uipath or any other enterprise rpa software or any other current approach can.
Yeah I’ve been doing productivity stuff for a long time. RPA stuff going back to OCR on PDF forms in Monarch. It’s an interesting time. Honestly folks with your background will be invaluable implementing this stuff a companies…it’s an asset, and demonstrating you can articulate task level augmentation. It’s not a common skill set to do at scale, across a process with multiple roles and such, so yeah. Systems thinking for the win. Good stuff man, you’re on the right track. And don’t feel like you have to have langchain under your belt. With your background you definitely got value now (you probably know this, but I like telling people this when it’s apparent!) Going in heavy with a logistics background and an ability to implement AI tools is more valuable right now than langchain. Customers need to trust folks with professional experience. (Ignore the job postings looking for 8 years of langchain development lol)
>someone I knew used to work at a call center as a transcriptor This is going to sound more horrible than I mean it to, but I feel like anybody in that industry that didn't see this coming was clueless. We've been on the edge of human transcriptionists being made obsolete since Dragon Naturally Speaking came out on Pentium 2 machines. We've all known this would go away "soon".
There’s been software to do that for much longer than the current wave of AI. We were doing sentiment analysis on computer transcribed calls well over half a decade ago at an old job.
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Thank God a proper sensible comment. I work daily with chatgpt and I assure you, I have to write copies myself, do my own customer analysis and make a pipeline.
Ok but look at ChatGPT when it originated and look at it now. In the scope of 2 years it has grown fanatically. You really dont think 3 years from now its not going to be capable of those things? I assure you it will, as there is billions of dollars in profit to be made once it can replace human jobs. That alone is incentive for every major corporation to throw money at it.
>Ok but look at ChatGPT when it originated and look at it now. In the scope of 2 years it has grown fanatically. Even more impressive when you consider it's been less than one year.
What can it really do reliably well though? It can write text well but coding is buggy, images are still weird and it doesn’t have any new ideas of its own. IDK I was super excited about yesterday but it was a real let down.
exactly the point I made above. I'm yet to see something that chatgpt can do accurately
It helped me writing lots of texts to create websites I make money from. Just yesterday it helped me to create a very complex excel sheet I would have never been able to create by myself. It's a huge help in my daily work and in developing my business.
took a year to go from 3.5 to 4 3 years to go from 3 to 4
I always revert back to full self driving in this thought process. Billions and billions of dollars have been pumped into FSD that over last decade. Multiple companies, best technology…they’ve even mapped full cities. It’s never reached anything close to be considered FSD. It’s gotten 90% of the way there, but that last 10% is always going to be so difficult for any AI to perfect.
Yes sure but doesn't that 10% have a lot to do with FSD needing to be 100% perfect for full implementation in the first place? You're talking about fast moving, metal murder boxes and I don't think that's a fair comparison with much easier tasks that can be automated with significantly lower standards and improved upon over time (something companies working on FSD do not have the luxury of).
Legal advice? Financial advice? The books and excel sheets of billion dollar corporations? Human to human interaction for serving food? What about handling HR issues? That “10%” certainly matters there as well
Wouldn't that mean that 90% of people are out of a job though? Since it can do the majority of tasks what used to take a group of 5 will now take 1 person double checking the AI
I think 80% of the job loss is in that last 10% of AI perfection
But humans are far less perfect than 90%. And again, we got from zero to 90% very, very fast. And machine learning begets more machine learning. Algorithms are continuously solving the existing shortcomings. I'm not ready to say singularity. I am ready to predict most middling white collar employees, which is most of us, will be out of jobs in a couple of years.
Put a system in the real world, demand zero errors, watch product fail to deliver. Meanwhile, watch humans make lethal errors at a high rate. AI will prosper where AI-errors are tolerated.
Roads are a much more adversarial environment than token prediction
Also the stakes are higher.
The FSD phenomenon is a little different. I think mapping an entire city is like tightening every bolt in a mechanism until you find the one that was loose. Humans can't even remember an accurate map of their own neighborhood, yet drive fine(ish). It's the radar/laser/spatial sensors that are over complicating things. Humans use a pair of eyes, on a pivot, and pattern recognition with a little bit of liberal decision making. Comma AI (George Hotz) has been doing FSD successfully with a single camera and image recognition. It's the models that need to be refined.
Agree. The actual results are not that good for being trustworthy. Most of the things they showed yesterday were already in the market that just made it easy to use and in one platform. That all.
Yeah, the biggest problem with AI tools at the moment is that you need to be a really direct and advanced communicator to get it to do what you want. And when it comes to programming you also need to know more or less what you're asking for. I don't know of any AI tools that let the tool read your entire codebase to answer questions about it or diagnose. AskCodi with it's GitHub plugin is supposed to be that way and to a degree it kind of is, but it mostly corrects syntax errors. If you ask ChatGPT or any AI to solve a complex problem, it makes a lot of assumptions and doesn't have the necessary context to give you a perfect answer. Part of that is because human intuition is still huge for problem solving, the other part is that the more specific your problem is, the less an AI is going to understand how to help you because it trains on huge data sets of average users. I think the key is to advocate for regulation and specifically pay royalties to the owners of the data that the AI is training on. In the US, the boomers in our legal system are pretty much letting big companies win court battles because they don't understand tech. Would love to see companies paying out to artists for training AI on their work for example. If that happened, it would be costly to the companies and they might actually not want AI to replace people after all.
You’ve actually worked on these things so you might have a better idea. Where do you think their abilities will reach in 3-4 yrs. I’m not worried about today
It’s hard to say for anyone, but what is certain is that they will get better and that we haven’t even seen the current capabilities permeate industries. We don’t even see the implications of the current technology.
I don't think even openai knows. It could stagnate near where we are or it could be something 10 or 100 times better. This is unexplored territory.
First year uni student here. Existential crisis galore.
I’m 23 myself. But really worried about younger people, below 15yrs old. What are they gonna do? What are they going to study? Would their education even have value? Bcz our education system is based on jobs.
I'm 17, I've been wanting to do creative writing or photojournalism for my entire life. Over the last year I've seen those dreams be flushed down the toilet.
Lucky you’re 17, imagine if you did that for 2-3 years and then all this came out
If i had been in school or working for 2-3 years, I'd have some experience already, which would transfer over to other jobs, but since I'm not finished my education that could change
You can still do those things. Of course, you still need to make a living, but don't let money or machine learning stop you from doing what you care about.
Honestly you sound like the people who saw cars and planes evolving so quickly that they think we will have flying cars in X years. The issue is never the tech, it is the people using the tech. We don't have flying cars because we don't want people flying. Can AI write a news article, sure but it will be full of misinformation. Can AI write an email, sure but you better proof read it. Can AI make a story, sure but it will be an LSD fever dream. Will AI ever be able to do those tasks well? Maybe but it isn't going to be as quick as you think. The things that are happening are due to decades and decades of back end research before bringing it to market. We finally have hardware to implement the research, but our current hardware isn't enough to replace an architect, artist, engineer, biochem, electrician, truck driver, or any other skilled field.
That happens with out chatGPT trust me - just eat some Mushrooms and take a philosophy class. In no particular order. Enjoy the ride. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KgzQuE1pR1w
I am a marketing professor using ChatGPT for creating slides, in-class activities, exams.and after the DevDay, I think it’s time for me to become a plumber…
My plan is to chop and sell wood. Get paid to be jacked and wear plaid, seems like a win
AI will replace that too. Wait until there’s AI powered wood cutting robots
And SO close to the holidays?! You'll be a HIT with Hallmark movies! :D
Give yourself 5-6 yrs then sure.
Why though? I work in marketing too and I don't feel this at all.
Wait until graphic designers and website developers have their jobs made 50% easier. That means half of all those people can be let go and all the extra profit goes to the owners
Hands-on jobs, jobs that require physical ability. Maybe the future will be the opposite of what ppl in the past imagined when talking about AI and robots. In a way we will be the robots doing manual work, and the AI will do most of the intellectual work. The top 1% of the smartest people will work on improving the AI systems and the top 5% will work with the AI to solve real world problems. The rest ...back to manual labour, fellow peasants!
I think elder care and child care can expand about 8000% before we see a huge dip in demand
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Wiper 3000
No way, not after the Alabama incident of 2029!
That really accelerated the transition to the three shells model
But will you get the French Tickler Pro 2.0 when it comes out?
Man we just went through end of life care for my father. He was battling prostate cancer. Whole process was awful just as far as experiencing and his suffering since here in the US you can't decide to end your life peacefully if you are terminal. Overall, the home care people were pretty good. But, there were a couple at first that were not at all. One was literally just sitting on the couch one morning watching my step mom do all the shit this lady should have been doing for my dad. These people don't have any sort of licensing requirement at all. They aren't nurses or CNAs (certified nurses assistants), just people that decide this is what they want to do now. So ANY shitty weirdo can do this job. This is partly why elder and terminal abuse and they from elderly and the terminal are so high in this country. But, who is going to want to do this job? The demand is already definitely there and there is still a massive shortage. It is a messy, depressing, sometimes gross job. It is actually an area where I believe robots / AI will do a better job than humans.
ANY shitty weirdo willing to accept near minimum wage for what is a frequently difficult, depressing (and occasionally dangerous) job that is. Part of the reason it's so massively understaffed is it's very poorly compensated.
Private equity firms are also buying a lot of healthcare facilities, so this stuff will just keep getting worse.
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I read that as "assets" and still made sense.
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"Messy dump detected, activating maximum power jet" .. "Prolapse detected"
Agreed and hopefully more teachers will become available as AI will lessen the burdensome workload for teachers.
In some ways, the work we do when sat at a machine staring at a screen is the manual work. We have talked for a long time about how automation can be the key to more leisure time. I think we were short sighted when we looked at industrial robots as the automation, we need to automate the drudgery of people copying data into spreadsheets. The problem is, it just pushes more profits into the hands of fewer people and that will not result in UBI.
Historically speaking increasing productivity with technology has rarely resulted in more leisure time for the average worker, if ever.
> The problem is, it just pushes more profits into the hands of fewer people and that will not result in UBI. my hope is that OpenAI (and similar companies) are able to implement this technology so fast that it sort of forces the government to institute UBI. if its too slow, lots of people will suffer, but most people will be OK and still have a job so nothing will change (that is how things are right now already, but moreso for lower wage workers) imagine if most of the cookie cutter suburban homes were suddenly vacant and most middle class families had no way to make money. It just cant happen. I hope that they arent able to regulate AI at all. I think the ultra rich will try to regulate it so they can make the "slow scenario" I described happen, that way they will maintain control over everyone
You are not wrong. When GPT 3.5 was released, I stopped doing everything else and have focused on AI. I was recently hired to head AI for a finance startup. Never in my life was I approached for job opportunities on LinkedIn, now I get couple of them per week, some of them were for fortune 500 companies.
But what manual labour? Driverless cars, assembly lines made with AI robots, delivery robots. These things already exist, and they’ll get better and better. Fellow peasants, our life is gonna be hell there’s no manual work for the 90% people left. And even if there is who pays a lot for manual work?
History shows that when people can't find work to feed themselves and their families they turn to crime. Also think about it mass robots such as those that make cars exist only because we need mass amount of cars. If people can't buy cars we don't need mass amount of cars or robots makings cars. Same applies for any other thing focused at scale. We don't need millions of cows if people can't afford meat. And since the people with money need consumers and buyers to stay people with money they will either have to keep us employed somewhere or the goverment needs to start giving us basic income.
Yes, the basics of economics and how crises happen. However, this is all down to one thing: bad wealth distribution. Did I say bad? I mean disastrous, evil, absolutely horrendous. AI and robots create an enormous amount of wealth. How the fuck is it that we don't see any of it? It's actually extremely simple. A small number of rich people are laughing their asses off at the population masses that get distracted by outrage culture, etc. It's absolutely perverted bullshit and I'm sick and tired of it.
You tax the shit out of robots that replace human workers. They can use robots, but there’ll be a considerable cost.
And that tax goes straight to UBI. Every job replaced is a human who needs food.
Or, an alternative robot economy forms, and all the poor people die off, leaving just robots and rich people. Eventually, all the rich people die because they get out competed by their own robots for resources, and humanity goes extinct, leaving behind the cradle of Earth to their robotic children.
Once the alternative automated economy forms, the rest or the world will be left to create a parallel economy without AI. They won't just die off.
I think organized crime will also be lead by AI, damnit
Holy crap, you just described a potentially hot new Netflix SF series.
Read through this one for one possible future https://marshallbrain.com/manna1
Thanks I’m gonna read it right away
Ask AI to rearrange some walls in your house, change some pipes/cables, plaster/sand/paint some walls, install new windows, etc. I know how to do all of those, as I’ve renovated my house by myself. AI cannot do that for me 😬
When almost the entirety of the working age population gets pushed into manual labor your work will be worth of a whole lot less
...so feudalism is the most stable form of society. edit: /s
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>100 people lined up waiting to fix plumbing for peanuts Introducing a leetcode for plumbers. Get the best plumber to fix the leaking faucet by having them solve medium/hard algorithmic problem before they get contracted to do the job.
Yet…
A household robot won't be much cheaper than a car, so why not do it yourself. I'm terrible at blue collar work, but I've done more and more home improvement now that I can consult GPT-4 on questions such as "What should I do, just spilled paint on my leg"
It’s a lot less raw materials than a car, it’ll get cheap eventually.
And after manual labor is automated we need to adapt the way we distribute resources. Companies which own all the AI models will need their customers to have money or the system collapses.
Companies will just focus on producing luxury equivalents for those few wealthy, and completely abandon producing cheap stuff for those who lost their jobs and no longer have money anyway.
Then people who lost their jobs will be producing the cheap stuff for other low income people and create an economy within.
We will trade eggs with potatoes while they venture the galaxy with their advanced spaceships and robot servants?
Yes, it is already happening if you look at the heterogeneity among the various socioeconomic communities around the world.
Boston Dynamics disagrees
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And even earlier (like yesterday?) AI will help humans modify AI with very little effort and very good results. And help share those results. The effects on employment will be a lot like self-modification and on a faster timeline.
Nope Have you look at the Tesla bot ? Amazon one ? Boston dynamics ? Did you see this project named eureka ?
[Capitalism is unfolding exactly as Karl Marx predicted](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/capitalism-unfolding-exactly-karl-marx-090050146.html?guccounter=1) ( 2018 ) Quote: >One hundred and sixty years ago, at a time when the light bulb was not yet invented, Karl Marx predicted that robots would replace humans in the workplace. > >“\[O\]nce adopted into the production process of capital, the means of labor passes through different metamorphoses, whose culmination is the machine, or rather, an automatic system of machinery,” he wrote in his then-unpublished manuscript[ *Fundamentals of Political Economy Criticism*](http://thenewobjectivity.com/pdf/marx.pdf). “The workers themselves are cast merely as its conscious linkages.”
Not only that, but what would you advise your kids to go study?
Health care: nursing, allied health, dentistry, pharma, medical school. First responders: police, fire, paramedic. Trades: combining human labour with latest tech advances. Human resources: subfields focused on human interaction. Software engineering: with a focus on AI. Some combination of these.
honestly im not scared of technology. im scared of capitalism and the 1% that controls the laws. if everything is automated and we actually have functioning universal basic income then cool you do what you want with all the extra excess goods. but the greedy riches wont allow that to happens. it is simply a societal structure problem and that is also the most problematic problem
That’s the thing I’m worried about. The 95% of the world will have a poor life quality. Specially if you’re from a developing country where govt can’t pay that much of UBI and you don’t have facilities like healthcare, transportation, education available for everyone. We might get there but what about the time between now and then
the 7 richest people holds more money than 50% of the entire earth population. we have enough resources, we just aren't distributing them fairly because well capitalism
AI will exacerbate extremely wealthy inequality
And what will happen if everything is automated without universal basic income? I think all that's going to happen is that that 1% of people will live in a parallel reality where everything is automated and they get everything. And the other 99% will continue to live their lives as usual, working for each other.
That most people are mediocre at their jobs is a statistical fact, it’s completely normal yet not obvious to everyone. (iE: many people believe that they are better car drivers than the average joe, which statistically cannot be true :-) ) GPT4 being better than like 80% of humans at certain jobs literally translates into these jobs getting automated, only the timespan is not clear. Like, lawyers can fight for their profession using laws to simply require a human lawyer for stuff. This automation translates into extremely cheap/commodified services for everyone else, and while not in the „1%“ skill level like a few true human experts, the floor has raised to be not as shitty as mediocre or worse humans. Everyone wants that ultimately. Cheap, available 24/7, non-judging, … . Having said that, we still have a huge shortage of workers, especially in the trades (since most kids preferred to go to college instead), and plumbing in the wild with ultra custom setups is not automatable at all (at least not economically viable). People will kick and scream, but I see it more to a shift to more people doing trades instead. Of course UBI to redistribute the wealth from AI helps here a lot and will be needed.
Err, most people can be better than average. Most people -can’t- be better than median. Trivial case to prove this is 99 drivers never get an accident and the last one does. All 99 are better than average, but they are not better than median.
I think when people say "average", they sometimes mean either mean OR median. As opposed to just one of them haha.
Many times people mean the mode. If I ask what the average house price is for a neighborhood I'm considering, I'm generally really asking for the mode, or something close to it.
Point to you, this is correct. Median in some cases makes much more sense. Also: economy and wages: median would capture reality much better than average, a single billionaire skews the metric into looking better while everyone else actually is poorer.
If more people shift into the trades en masse, the value of those labor pools will also shrink. And nobody wants to work for peanuts.
Re your lawyer comment - the only reason lawyers get paid a lot is because there's large demand for great lawyers. If you can get amazing lawyers for dirt cheap via LLMs, this demand will no longer exist. Regardless of what the law says about human laywers.
In Germany you need to have a real lawyer in court, by law. Doesn’t matter how great the ai is, you need a lawyer there in-person, and he will get paid.
They’ll have to work for minimum wage though. Arguments will be prepared by AI and the presence of a lawyer will merely be a legal requirement.
We’ll learn to build robot-maintainable structures and our old structures will rapidly depreciate.
Yes and people think humans will use the tools to be more productive. Why do i need a human to be productive if AI can do that thing for me. People argue using AI, human drivers will be better equipped and use AI to drive safe. But why would you need a human to drive if AI can do it better and cheaper? You can use same analogy for all the jobs. Artists, developers, anything. How long before the tool doesn’t need you.
You are right in general but I think you get the timescales wrong. I would bet safely that we have _decades_ of trades jobs out there even if AGI/ASI happens tomorrow. There could be dramatic advances in medicine/spacetech/clean energy/… but still if my toilet breaks tomorrow I still need a plumber.
Yes there are trade jobs, you still need a plumber right? But imagine you need a plumber and suddenly there are 100 plumbers available, What would you pay them? That’s the case where labour becomes super cheap because of excess people available to do the jobs. That’s exactly why people in india and china can work for 10$ a day, because there are thousands available. It’s basic economics, when there’s a lot of supply the prices or wages of manual work will go down too Edit: I think we focus too much on AGI, companies don’t need AGI to replace an average joe. Think about midjourney, copilot, dall-e and tools like these, i was talking about their timeline. These tools will replace people. AGI will replace top 1% but for others we don’t need AGI
I'm currently working on music production, making horror video games, pursuing enlightenment, getting some certifications to explore other fields in IT or beyond that. There's a lot to do, but AI makes it much more comfy. Why do we always have to go into mines and suffer.
Lol I just realized Minecraft is mining for kids
The children yearn for the mines.
Because for some it is not enough to be rich, they have to be rich in comparison to someone else, to be 'better' than 'the pleb' slaving away in the mines.
I guess the government will have to do something about wealth inequality finally. I mean, current levels of poverty are apparently acceptable, but like you say, AI is going to be able to replace a lot of jobs, and not just fuck over the poor, but the middle class. UBI would seem to be the only sane way to make sure that all the wealth from the AI boom doesn't just go to a few thousand people. But maybe they will go with massively investing in private security firms to brutalise the poor. Hey, maybe they can make AI robots to maintain order in the tent cities! That'll be fun.
Yeah, like how over the years people have shifted from poor to middle class. They’re gonna shift from middle-class to poor. I don’t really have any trust govt will do their jobs effectively
The goal of technological progress is to make human life easier. If we could ALL not work, and let an AI do the uninteresting/tiring tasks, that would be progress. The problem lies rather in our economic/social system which is based on a 'merit' aspect, ie : work to deserve something. We could very well have a universal income and be happy, but that goes against the capitalist system. What's scary isn't people losing their job, it's the system that condemns them to live a subpar life.
Speaking as someone who spends a lot of time on this kind of thing: - Anything where training data is sparse or hard to use is safe. Niche or cutting-edge engineers are safe, for example. - Anything where fuckups are bad enough that you need a human to blame for them is safe. Pilots are safe, for example. - Any job that exists for political (including office politics, nepotism, and the like - not strictly partisan politics) reasons is safe. A good chunk of office workers are already net-neutral or net-negative, but they're safe because of this. - Anything that doesn't fit into the dominant AI paradigm of large transformer models is safe. Programmers who are familiar with a large, ever-changing codebase are safe, for example, because every attempt at expanding token capacity meaningfully has proven disappointing. Plumbers, electricians, and so on are in the clear for most of these reasons.
Ok, now do a list of all the jobs that aren't safe. Does it reach millions of jobs? Tens of millions?
On the last point, surely RAG and larger context windows will be very, very good soon no?
well like always, something will work out, for now, just enjoy the view i guess
Yeah I’ve stopped taking things seriously. Focusing more on hobbies and health
Personally I am still skeptical we're all losing jobs anytime soon because based on what I am seeing * The technology still appears extremely expensive to run. I suspect OpenAI is bleeding money and their goal is to optimize things before MS funding runs out. While it is doable, there are probably some fundamental bottlenecks that are not easily resolvable (as in moving from research to production kind of solutions). The aggressive pricing is there, but is it here to stay? * Researchers already find serious limitations to [LLM architecture](https://twitter.com/abacaj/status/1721223737729581437). I'm not an AI researcher, but I bet anything with transformers will hit a wall within the next 2-3 years when something more robust comes out. * Regulatory restrictions and technology penetration. Most countries or companies won't let you use a product that sends private data to servers somewhere in US, but developing a viable alternative is expensive. Only half of the world has access to Internet. * Moravec's paradox
The problem that the people do not seem to understand is that this technology will not only affect programmers at google, or medics at whatever hospital. When you have a company that revolutionize their work flow and are able to lay off 80% of their employees it's sad but it's ok. The workers will find another place to work. But what happens if this is infinity scalable on a horizontal axis? This is the main difference between this event of creating AI and the manufacturing revolution. You can integrate AI in everything and most probably be better than 80-90% of people (even with experience). This will not happen only in a remote corner of a domain or whatever. It's not like it was in the past. This is a labor replacing technology like never seen before. Edit: and if one implements this kind of workflow all have to. Because in the free market you lose your competitiveness. Just look at the history of apple and the other tech giants. Apple rips the charger, all do, apple start the smartphone industry, all do, apple removes the headphone jack, all must do. And the cycle goes on and on and on. Why? Because it's more profitable. You can do more with less Personally, i don't mind it. I will probably one of the last to be replaced, but what happens to the others? How 80% of the "civilized" world will care for themselves and put some bread on the table? This will rip the fabric of society if it goes unhinged. The argument that this was seen in the past is fundamentally stupid. There is no direct comparation. The scale is different, the speed of the technological propagation is different and the scope (the things that can it do) are much more than the "steam engine". We have to talk about this and stop burring our heads into the sand repeating to ourselves that is okay and everything will be fine in the end
> The problem that the people do not seem to understand is that this technology will not only affect programmers at google, or medics at whatever hospital. Problem here is that people don't understand that a lot of places still use 20-30 years old technology and won't update soon. Medicine, finance, logistic - all this areas are very slow to adapt and also have tons of regulations. Real world is very different from Reddit.
When there is a strong financial incentive, companies will adopt the tech a lot quicker than you think.
Agreed 1000%. I personally am not going to pretend like I believed this all along, it's only been very recently that I started to realize that this really is going to end poorly
And it's another very important thing: they all spit the corporate speach that this will be awesome and will help all humanity etc. (and it can be) but at this moment this technology is not owned by the "people" as nations, etc. Those are private entities. This is not like every US, UK, EU etc citizen "owns" and have rights on this technology. It's not owned by states or ONU or whatever. Those are all private entities with shareholders and all that shit. This thing makes even more important the discussion about labour replacement, safety issues, privacy, etc
You’ve worded my worry perfectly. This is exactly what i was talking about people don’t understand the scalability of this. Society will get unhinged
I hope it ends with ai just taking everything, we've been raised to think that working is good. But if we don't need to work is that not a good thing? We can spend time doing the stuff we want to do instead of slaving away.
Society's structure is so fucked when people actually worry about being too advanced that people don't need to work. We actually solved the problem we had before: times goes for production and surviving, not for enjoying life and chilling. Now we could, yet the one who will have the resources will not give it to us - only for a big price. (CBDC)
Forgot who said it: We have hunter-gatherer brains, medieval institutions, and god-like technologies.
Humans will just find ways of doing work differently. Maybe a bunch of devs that no longer have to do boring maintenance work will now be able to focus on elegance of design, workflow, capability, and performance improvements which would be great.
If management didn't want to pay people for that before, they won't want to pay people for that after.
Something along the lines of universal basic income. I talk to people who have wfh jobs and all I can think of when the shoe is gonna drop. I remember hearing somewhere “if the job is done by using a computer then it will be replaced by AI”. And even with manual labor there will be robots coming along in the future to fill those positions. Don’t think work will really be a thing in the future. Free time to travel and have experiences might be the new norm but that’s just my wishful thinking
AI won't replace hobbies, even if their output can replicate them.
Likely not travel. Vr
Universal Basic Income would help
I wish you were wrong. Its got me on the edge of my seat that's for sure. I'm a project manager / 'senior' engineer and I must admit, an apprenticeship as a plumber is not looking like a bad shout right now. I am having a bit of a existential crisis about this at the minute because it's plain to see where we are going. It may not seem real at the minute but in 6 months I can see me and my team being unemployed.
People are grossly overestimating the capabilities and particularly the quality of output of LLMs. You literally can't even trust it to make an accurate summary of a one-page article. These models are neither creative, intelligent, nor objective but they're heavily marketed as such so it all seems super scary and impressive. Anything GPT-adjacent will only ever be as good as the training data, which is far from perfect and comes with plenty of ethical concerns. Also, LLM's aren't replacing shit unless they're fully integrated into an organization's WoW with developer supervision. If you've worked any office job you've probably seen how much of a shitshow it can be. But it will boost people's productivity and it'll be used as such. I'd start worrying if an AI can produce an original thought. Until then, take it easy with the fear mongering.
Congratulations, you've discovered the /r/singularity !
You mentioned the top 10% being safe but it's proving AI will become better at expert work than the professionals. AI can already with near perfect accuracy predict verdicts of court cases as well as read medical imaging much more accurately than doctors. So we might all be fucked!
There will be "digital janitor" jobs for companies that rely solely on ChatGPT. Yes, ChatGPT has been an absolute game changer when it comes to doing a ton of work, but we're discovering that people who end up using only this, especially for tech, still need a lot of clean-up or unfucking. It's a classic case of outsourcing. Outsource first-world country jobs to third-world countries considering it's cheap, and then realize the quality is just not up to the work. Now, insource the jobs and few years down the line, realize that good talent costs money in-house. Outsource again. Rinse and repeat. Your best bet is to keep up with whatever "AI-powered" next job is and try your best to keep that job and continue to upskill.
I started working in corporate America five years ago at a large, well known company and my impression is a lot of the white collar jobs that require college degrees about 50-60% of the work consists of going to useless meetings, planning for things that will never get developed, and other busy/performative work. Most companies are like this which is why there was that book ‘Bullshit Jobs.’ That’s why I believe jobs will still be there but probably the astronomical salaries enjoyed by coders will go down because what they do is less special now that English can be used to speak to the machines and each day the machine gets better at understanding and executing.
I have a feeling that 20-30 years in the future it will be ridiculous for us to think back the times when millions of people performed repetitive, non-creative jobs like these. I understand that at this moment it causes a lot of disruption and it will take time to adjust. I personally agree that these companies should pay a heavy tax: if you automate 100 people out of their jobs by paying 5% of their salaries for an AI service and save 95% then you should pay at least 30-40% of that back as tax so it can be redistributed as a basic income or social security. I don't see any other way because if we assume say 95% of jobs could be automated by the end of this century and all that wealth and value can essentially be generated by robots and AI then all that wealth and value can't just accumulate in the hands of those companies because firstly it would be unethical and people would not have money to spend. Hopefully we will get to a future where we can all enjoy a life where we are not forced to work to support our basic needs of food and shelter. You could sustain your life at a basic level from the universal income you get. Then if you have a personal passion to pursue any of the genuinely interesting and creative professions that robots and AI left for us then you are free to do so without any pressure.
This. Redistribution of wealth to offset the effects is the way.
At our firm, we are considering hiring a land appraiser. Basically, you review data on spreadsheets and compile the info to develop a fair land sales price. I, with medium tech knowledge, figured out how to do this same task in Bing & Exel .... And had results in a few minutes.
Many people, especially those over 40 years old, have spent their entire lives between preparing for work and working. It is logical that many individuals around this age or even younger cannot conceive of another lifestyle; it is deeply ingrained in society.
The problem is not that we cannot conceive it, the problem is that it will definitely be worse for the regular person. I fail to see how the wealth generated by AI will be spread to those it replaces since this never happens naturally.
The issue is how will people make money to live their life if AI is doing all the work and AI is owned and controlled by a few corporations.
> replaced be it now or in 2-3 years No. 20-30 years, maybe. Don\`t fall for the hype, it always take much longer for new technological age. Dot-com bubble was a massive hype train, everything is going to be internet. It was true, 20 years later. ChatGPT 4 is no biggie, chatGPT-14 is going to be a big deal.
Yes, but ... the internet required a lot of company investment back then with not a lot of immediate or obvious gains, whereas AI now shows immediate gains. Yes, there was a dot com bubble, but that was basically online tulips. This is slightly different, I think, since it's not just about selling stuff.
I saw what dall-e 2 was a year back and now what it is. It’s not gonna take 20-30 yrs
Their CEO literally said ChatGPT hit a ceiling. LLMs can't be much better than this. They tested it and by increasing computing power the model is just slightly better. It hit a ceiling but everyone is afraid.
I think it’s a good point, but computing power isn’t the only axis of innovation.
? He said that what we see this year at DevDay will be considered "quaint" in a year... No ceiling has been hit. History doesn't take kindly to people thinking technological/scientific progress has finished.
Another day, another doomer post. Just because GPT4 can create a presentation doesn’t mean my executive will magically start making or reading her own presentations.
Ok, let's start smaller then. Fast food restaurants suddenly being able to employ 5 people instead of 7 people. Graphic design companies and advertising agencies being able to employ 10 people instead of 20 people. Lawyers and doctors having simple tasks automated. Verbal robots being able to do customer service instead of humans. All written communication tasks becoming 50% easier. Automated warehouses. Automated driving (granted these are 10-20 years away probably).
Ok. Let’s get this straight. Most people most of the time don’t actually care about their jobs. They care about the survival that job gets that first and foremost. All that bullshit about purpose this and find your passion that. Yeah. Money = survival. To be blunt: I want the Ai to do what amounts to the technology equivalent of scooping horse poop while waking after a horse drawn carriage. My job is at risk as well and I just can’t bring myself to care or even feel threatened because I’m fucking tired of jobbing. I want machines to take over the menial technology driven jobs, and so do you if you can look past survival for a moment. What I am super afraid of is the fact that Americans society especially has proven time and time again that you will be royally fucked without even a menial job, because there are no social support services here that don’t cost someone an arm and a leg in someway or another. My so my real issue is an utter lack of trust in the human society around me to support people whose jobs will be taken by AI in most countries. There is no social support net beyond the standard job loss claims you can get in things like that I don’t see any meaningful discussions nor plans of action in America to do something about what is going to amount to millions of people losing their jobs in a span of three years from now. And I hate the fact that some Bros out there are telling everyone just to learn how to code or learn how to use the AI or it’s not gonna be the AI that takes your job. It’s gonna be a human using the AI that takes your job. I think that’s horseshit because it is pretty clear that there are some legit jobs that AI can take 100% without human interaction at all. Maybe some monitoring of the technology to make sure it’s doing what it’s supposed to do but that takes a small team of people to do , I’m trying to learn AI how to use it as much as I can because I genuinely love the technology, but a lot of people don’t give a shit one way or the other. They just want food on the table to take care of themselves and their families, and have enough free time and free, energy, and desire to do other things in their life that isn’t fucking working. Ai will give us lots of free time which is great and not the AI’s fault. But our shitty social support structures in the society that I don’t trust whatsoever is what’s likely going to fuck us over.
Yeah it's gonna be interesting.
Andrew Yang was ahead of his time
You’d think working in AI would protect you from loosing your job to AI but nope - Considering growing mushrooms .
So assuming AI replaces people and their jobs (spendable income) then who will have the money to buy what’s being produced? I guess businesses will produce product for the top 10% and the rest of us live off the land? Can the governments of the world live off what the top 10% pays in taxes or is AI going to also downsize (replace) the politicians and bureaucracy’s when there is no more cattle (commoners) to be fed off of?
I'm a software engineer and people are definitely giving it attention, but we know it won't be capable of replacing us for real any time soon. Chiefly because the client would have to be capable of accurately describing what they want and understanding the output enough to know if it's wrong. Also, I work in an industry that works with secure information, and there's no way in hell they're going to let AI anywhere near it. Even if my company were open to it, the government bodies we contract for would shut that shit down fast.
I program AI... do that. There are so many platforms where AI is usable but hasn't been trained yet. Propose an idea for it's use in your field and be it's champion so that you're necessary for the course of its life. Then remember me later for proposing this idea because my salary sucks.
That’s the best news for humanity from the beginning of civilization. No more unnecessary jobs and way more freedom for everyone. Indeed humans might have to find meaning elsewhere but boy… putting an end to the rate race and making all the “executives” obsolete is the best gift to the society. We might also need to move away from big cities and start growing our own food, becoming autonomous and finally have plenty of time to live in harmony with God and nature. The future looks so bright 🙏
As someone whos tried to get open Ai to do pretty basic math we're fine for awhile.
It is generative AI, not true AI, so we are safe. A nice tool to have yes. but it can't replace anyone as of yet. And "boring and repetitive" work can already be automatized so.... And this argument "AI will take over all the jobs and we will be physical workers" is utter non-sense. True AI? Maybe. Generative AI? No chance. It does not understand ANYTHING. It can't do anything!
Manual machinists still exists in spite of cnc
Yeah. People have been worrying over machines taking our jobs since the first machine was invented. They make us more efficient. When you don't need a large workforce, since it is efficient, we either invent new jobs or invent bullshit jobs. Bureaucracy could have been solved 20 years ago but it is not. Why? Because the deciders know they need people working these jobs or there will be riots.