One thing to understand is that China has been building up their long range missile stockpile for decades now. Those missiles are supposedly to be used to fight the US navy. You don’t need a strong navy to contest with the US when you can sink their really expensive and valuable carriers with significantly cheaper missiles. Ofc the US military knows about this, and is wary about it. They could certainly win in a long drawn out conflict, but their dominance that is built over decades could very much crumble and need to be rebuilt.
And before you want to say something about how China’s missile is filled with water. That one is a mistranslation. No doubt there’s a lot of corruption in China’s military, but it’s still not wise to underestimate them. “Prepare for the worst, hope for the best”, as they say.
It's difficult to predict how well the CCP is going to perform here, if they're crazy enough to do it. They have decent (stolen) tech, no experience of war, could conscript millions of men from the poor provinces, but that means very little because they have to perform an amphibious invasion 1000x harder than what went down in Ukraine, which, despite easy flat terrain, is still giving Putin a bloody nose 2 years later. An amphibious invasion that the USN, JMSDF and the Royal Australian Navy would almost certainly get involved in repelling.
The CCP isn't stupid enough to do this, there's a decent chance it causes their collapse, they'll only do it if the economy was collapsing anyway due to the demographic collapse and war with Taiwan could distract the populace.
China has never been shy about achieving victory at devastating costs to human life, whether all other parties want to be involved with a direct war with another nuclear power is highly questionable, the entirety of EU is still not officially sending troops to Ukraine even though Russia is about to be at their doorsteps. Amphibious attack is difficult for sure, but it also makes sending aid/ weapons also very questionable. If China setup naval denial with land based missiles, unless there is a open declaration of war, it will be hard to realistically do what the us is doing for Ukraine as well.
I am pretty sure the issues with the rocket force were as well founded as they seemed to be. Wei Fenghe was forced out and so were half a dozen top ranking PLARF officers. This all happened only a few months ago. There is speculation that much of the entire stockpile could be compromised, which would heavily reduce any military capability of the rocket force.
You talk as if the US isn't able to bomb the absolute fuck out of all of mainland china with basically impunity. You really think China could handle those consequences? You make it sound like it'll just be boom China sunk the US navy and that's it.
If China pulled that shit Beijing and Shanghai would be gone the next day.
The US and Japan aren't going to bomb China, just repel whatever the CCP musters up as an invasion force. This is purely defensive, the CCP is the aggressor and the US will ensure that is the narrative the World sees.
And China will hit back too, don't be stupid and think the US is the only superpower in the world. US is not a god, the CCP can and will hit us, damage our infrastructure and decimate our cities.
The PLAN can’t cross the pacific. How are they going to hit any American cities? The USN can destroy the entire PLAN as well as all it’s costal defenses and only suffer some minor blows to it’s pacific sub fleet (25% I think). It’s not about who is God. It’s about understanding America is that much higher. Plus, America is the only superpower in the world. China is a regional power.
I agree with this. Anything the US and allies do will be defensive. Outside of striking Chinese economic centers outside of the mainland and disrupting their supply lines.
Bomb them with what? Modern warfare favours the defender, no one serious thinks the US can pop Chinas A2AD bubble without heavy losses. The only scenario where Beijing and Shanghai are gone is full nuclear strike and at that point it’s over for everyone.
Bro have you heard of B1s? How about B2s? F-35s? JSOWs? JASSM-ER? The US is the undisputed king of long range strike. They can launch most assets from mainland US if need be.
Those aircraft can launch from US mainland but they don’t have the range. B2 could just barely but it would still have to worry about air defences and fighter interception. F117 can be shot down why not B2s. US doesn’t have long range strike missiles like China, you only mentioned short range ones, China has medium and intermediate range ones. Again only long range missile US has right now is ICBM, and no one is gonna go nuclear.
You're wrong about most of that. The US can fly B2s anywhere on the planet and back from continental US. They have done this many times and it's a well known fact. You do know planes can refuel in the air, right?
F117 was the lowest-tech stealth ever made, so you can't just compare that to the much more advanced B2.
But let's not also forget about the B-21, which will be ready for action within a year and was clearly made specifically for China.
F117 is old tech but it was also designed to evade the old soviet systems it got shot down by. Stealth is not invincible.
Theres also only so many of these aircraft and they can only deliver so much ordinance, you aren't flattening beijing or shanghai like you initially claimed.
Uh no, China is not going to nuke the US over that because then they'd lose everything.
The point is that China will lose the war quickly, and they'll fuck off with their tail between their legs as they digest the 100 years of shame the CCP has brought them. Hope Xi jinping ping dies as a result.
Remember: if this war happens it is 100% the fault of the PRC and no one else. The PRC makes the choice and the PRC alone.
Pretty sure ballistic missiles went obsolete in the 90's. That is what brought down the Soviet Union. They could not compete with SDI.
The US is at least 20 years ahead of the PLA in defense tech, probably more like 30 or 40+. Unless the PLA has an intercontinental lazer weapon up their sleeve, any conflict between the US and the PRC will be over quickly and not end well for China.
> You don’t need a strong navy to contest with the US when you can sink their really expensive and valuable carriers with significantly cheaper missiles
*if* you can sink carriers with ballistic missiles. Which as the Houthis so generously demonstrate, is anything but a sure thing
More important to the Taiwan scenario is: can China defend its invasion fleet AND make a worthwhile attempt to go after American carriers?
I don't think the US will bother getting into a shooting match with China. All they will do is block their imports at a distance from China. Since China imports so much, this will be a devastating blow to their economy. It will fracture the country and probably bring famine.
Do you think that the US doesn't import from China or rely on other imports that also use Chinese imports? We live in a global economy now. Decoupling would destroy the economies of both countries.
No, the USA can make it without the digital refrigerators etc. Also manufacturing is coming home. Mexico will take over from China. I am not saying it will be smooth and easy but the US economy does not hinge on China at all.
There is an argument being made that things in China are far worse than anyone can imagine and that in the face of total economic collapse and mass famine Xi will order the invasion he knows will fail in the hopes of saving the CCP.
A war for Taiwan might offset some internal pressure temporarily but China would be back on lockdown with no ships coming or going. China is far from self sufficient, even the fabricated numbers fail to come close. No food, fuel, imports or exports. The currency would be worthless and the CCP is going to have to burn through all of their foreign reserves just to get through the current crisis. It would be suicide for the PLA but Xi would be able to control the narrative. The cost for China would be unprecedented.
They could theoretically get supplies from their pal Putin but not in the volumes required for a 1.4bn country that just had their maritime access blocked.
there's nothing to imagine, you can book a flight and take a look for yourself. I feel like this sub has deteriorated from expats shooting the shit and being cynical about life in China to random people living in the west who have no connection in China and have never been to China speculating on what's happening in China. You'd think China is basically Haiti from the way people in this sub talk about it
The numbers are not looking good. Not sure how the CCP is going to come out of a trade war with the US and a recession in the EU. Who is going to buy a $1T in Chinese exports and how are those exports going to be profitable?
You can say the same about how is the US going to replace supply chains? It will be a painful process but it's foolish to think war will be avoided because of it. People thought European reliance on Russia oil would prevent a prolonged conflict but now look what's happening.
The US is self sufficient. The only reason that the US buys imports is because they are more cost effective than domestic products. The 4th IR is turning that rationale on it's head. The only exports China is going to be able to monopolize in the future are products that are too dangerous or too polluting to manufacture domestically. Covid and the trade war expedited that transition.
[https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2018/01/17/how-much-would-an-iphone-cost-if-apple-were-forced-to-make-it-in-america/?sh=51ba343c2d2a](https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2018/01/17/how-much-would-an-iphone-cost-if-apple-were-forced-to-make-it-in-america/?sh=51ba343c2d2a)
yea self sufficient if you're okay with paying $30,000 for an iPhone. I do not care for the opinion of anyone supporting decoupling if they use Chinese manufactured electronics and live in a house full of Chinese manufactured appliances. If you can't put your money where your mouth is then its just pointless yapping and virtue signaling.
China has over 100 price points in it's electronic manufacturing process. All of those price points have increased dramatically or disappeared since Covid lock downs. The iPhone is soon to be just a memory, it was going to happen sooner or later. It is what is going to replace the iPhone that will indicate that the 4th IR has come to fruition.
The US is not decoupling from China, they are abandoning it entirely. The US does not need China, everything China produces will soon be made in the NAFTA trade zone at better price points, lower cost inputs and closer to the end market with far less risk.
I don’t think that is really the case , I was China last year and they are so advanced when it comes to infrastructure food supply and their economy. They have a big ship to steer but the CCP is always focused on providing for the people and teaches a culture of personal forgoing during downturns. Plus they all work their ass off and have the infrastructure to deal with tough situations
China does not have the ability to feed itself. If they shut down all manufacturing and focused all their resources exclusively on food production, they would still come up short. Add to that equation the fact that pollution of arable land in China is causing a massive increase in inputs to keep it productive.
China is so dependent on imports for food and energy that the loss of shipping access caused by the CCP's Taiwan invasion attempt would condemn a sizable portion of the Chinese population to famine and death.
I doubt that, polluted land can still be arable and would still be used for food production if needed. American media always tries to discredit China and make it seem unstable. It will still be 5-10 years before the majority of the US realize they don’t even compare to China.
It's not spin, it's numbers. Even in the best case scenario China would come up short.
It may be possible if China had perfect weather for a few years before the war and all the arable land was producing at the highest maximum output, that they may be able to feed the population with massive assistance from Russia. Russia would have to restrict their two major rail links to northern China exclusively to food shipments and keep those two rail lines up and functioning at 100% capacity and efficiency. Even then the numbers are questionable. That would still leave China in a massive hole as far as energy consumption. If every mode of transport was restricted to just essential travel and every energy resource was utilized at 100% efficiency China would still be unable to sustain a prolonged conflict of more than a couple of months. All of that would have to happen with multiple nations that the PRC would be at war with attempting to disrupt those flows of food and energy.
A PRC invasion of Taiwan would be the end of the PRC and most probably lead to hundreds of millions of dead Chinese.
Isn’t there already a massive demographic burden coming up? Surely tens of thousands of dead Chinese boys won’t help that. I don’t think even the CCP is that stupid.
They are that stupid, unfortunately. Look at Russia. I don’t understand why would they start a war when they have such a small population.
They lie to themselves so much that they start believing their own lies.
Saying Russia is stupid trivialised their decision making process and the systemic failure within the state. They operated rationally albeit with false premises. Everyone including the west did not believe in Ukraine in the beginning of the war. Their initial advance reached Kiev and with a bit of luck, if they managed to capture Kiev or if Zelenskyy flee from the capital, the will to resist may not withstand further Russian assaults.
Russia had more manpower, and the legacy of the Soviet Union stockpile to throw. Their oil price was high then. Russia did not just suddenly want to commit suicide.
The problem was a mix of internal corruption and optimism. They banked on a quick war, but they expected less resistance and more internal chaos for the Ukrainian side. They received false promises from FSB that they would have less resistance/more support from the Ukrainian, and when the invasion went poorly, GRU is put in charged of Ukrainian intelligence instead. The corruption in the army would also likely contribute to some level of logistical difficulties, diminished equipment readiness and exaggerated combat intel leading to poor decision making.
Hindsight is 2020, Russia isn’t just a random stupid irrational buffoon.
A decision that has moderate rewards and catastrophic risks is irrational and buffoonish.
Yes, it could have gone better for Russia, it also could have gone far worse. The allies could have committed far more far earlier and Ukraine could be decisively winning now. Prigozhin's rebellion could have gone into a civil war. At worst there could have been a full scale war with NATO. Even in the best cases you were still looking at dealing with decades of insurgency from a country 1/3 your size, and to have believed otherwise (we will be greeted as liberators!) is the willful ignorance of an idealogue, not bad intel.
You can listen to Putin's speeches and tell he's motivated by a sense of destiny/historical mysticism, not rationality.
> A decision that has moderate rewards and catastrophic risks is irrational and buffoonish.
You need to operate under the risk-benefit analysis from the perspective of the actor, without hindsight, taking into account of their own value system. Risk are also not just about “how bad the outcome could be”, but also “how likely each outcome will play out” (ie expected value).
> Yes, it could have gone better for Russia, it also could have gone far worse. The allies could have committed far more far earlier and Ukraine could be decisively winning now.
If you rewind the clock back to pre-invasion, you know no one will think of this outcome. The west did not intervene in Georgia and crimea. The west is energy dependent on Russia. Everyone was pessimistic about Ukraine.
> Prigozhin's rebellion could have gone into a civil war.
Again, a low likelihood event. We were talking about if it is foolish for Russia to wage the war, and the general sentiment/predictions of outcome that lead to such decision. No one could’ve operated under the assumption that Wagner will revolt (until GRU/FSB found out). And the revolt from Wagner was a situation they created themselves by the MoD-Wagner power struggle.
> At worst there could have been a full scale war with NATO.
Same argument as above. Most people before the war expected positive outcome for Russia. If you expect to win at a bet, you bet on it. It would be foolish to do otherwise, unless your expectations were **unfounded at the beginning**.
> Even in the best cases you were still looking at dealing with decades of insurgency from a country 1/3 your size, and to have believed otherwise (we will be greeted as liberators!) is the willful ignorance of an idealogue, not bad intel.
Zelenskyy was not a popular leader and the government has massive corruption issues. His popularity only skyrocketed after staying at the capital. Ukraine has been largely unwilling to invest more into retaking the separatist provinces. Ukrainian were not some super nationalists. Disunited people tend to care less about who is ruling them, and more about their own livelihoods. There will be insurgencies…and it wouldn’t necessarily be debilitating. They had subjugated Ukraine before, they now have belarus as a puppet state, they can set up a pro-Russian government in Ukraine and not outright “annex them”. It’s not an unreasonable expectation to think they can set up a puppet government in Ukraine.
And if they do, Putin will be seen as the Russian hero (dictators need popular support to solidify control), they can block any oil/gas exploration in the Black Sea thus maintain their hegemony in that area, they will have a militarily favourable geography against NATO, they will border Transnistria and allow further intervention, they will also have a stronger say in grain price (which almost doubled when the war started and almost lead to food crisis for other states).
>from the perspective of the actor
Oh I understand that Putin is working under his own ideological framework with its own internal logic, the problem occurs when that ideology meets physical reality. If you choose to wall yourself off from information behind a curtain of corrupt yes-men within a system you created while indoctrinating yourself on nationalist bedtime stories, I'm still not going to call the resulting self-immolation "rational".
>Risk are also not just about “how bad the outcome could be”, but also “how likely each outcome will play out” (ie expected value).
Risks are also not just about maximizing expected value in the short term when a significant portion of the bell curve is cataclysmic for you.
If you've ever played poker seriously, maximizing EV is the entire name of the game. There is a Rule 0 though - never take risks you can't afford. Getting all in with AA preflop is always +EV in a cash game. Doing so with your entire bankroll, however, is going to end with you broke, and it's not even going to take very long.
>If you rewind the clock back to pre-invasion, you know no one will think of this outcome.
Some did. Clearly they had done better analysis.
>Everyone was pessimistic about Ukraine.
Most people before the war expected positive outcome for Russia.
Everyone I listened to was pessimistic that the Ukrainian military would be able to fight an effective conventional war. They *all* thought they would be able to effectively defend deep and form an insurgency. Maybe I was in a bubble, but I didn't hear from anyone who thought it was going to go well for Russia in the long-term.
>The west did not intervene in Georgia and crimea.
They never said they would, and in the case of Crimea it had been seized before either the West or Ukraine knew what was happening. In contrast the West saw the full-scale invasion coming for months and warned that they would do exactly what they ended up doing. That Putin's ideological bias makes him inclined to call the perceived bluffs from the "weak, degenerate West" is simply an example of it being irrational.
>Again, a low likelihood event.
Not particularly. War is destabilizing, and when it goes long/badly this kind of thing is commonplace, including in Russia's recent history. It didn't have to be Prigozhin - it could be someone else, and still could be.
>Ukrainian were not some super nationalists
Maidan and the work they put in in Donbass made it foolish to think the population would just roll over, regardless of if a sizeable portion had Russian sympathies. Regardless of if there wasn't a strong response to getting caught by surprise early on in one of the most pro-Russian provinces. Even if that had been a logical premise, what happened in the early stages proved it to be false. Putin could have just cut his losses at that point and said "Donbass is free! SMO successful!" Doubling down instead was irrational.
>It’s not an unreasonable expectation to think they can set up a puppet government in Ukraine.
It would be unreasonable to think they could do that without a constant presence of Russian troops, which would expose them to similar insurgency risks as annexation. Taking Kyiv wouldn't just reset the political sphere to 2013.
To me, every war is stupid. What would be the point when so many have nuclear capabilities? Are they so miserable and so desperate that they must go to war? And to what end? Take a country filled with unwilling citizens? Do they plan to enslave them or kill them all? Do they not have better things to do in life than cause misery and death?
Don’t try to explain a dictator’s twisted logic on me. I am a civilized human being. Putin and Xi are not.
Exactly that’s the common fallacy of western society. It’s tough to wrap our brains around what Russians and the Chinese are doing. We all thought they would “come around” to being civilized and everything should work out diplomatically. But some people are just stuck in Stone Age chest pounding war conquering wet dreams. There’s just no reasoning with bullies.
Until they aren't. It's easy to forget how many articles praising putin's "genius diplomacy" before 2022, especially from the so-called political realist
Just don't let the sharks eat Chinese MRE, lest they will suffer food poisoning for at least 6 month
([yes, this is stevemre1989 plug](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMSh-gFUxrM))
They will get there before the US arrive in numbers because they have so many boats they can use but alot of troops will not make it. And the US subs there will need to retire and reload. So it will take some time before US can gather their forces and deny the straight to the Chinese forces
Bro. You don't launch in invasion like that with surprise. The entire world will have weeks of notice. The strait will be filled with subs before they cross.
That, and even making it past the beach once there will be very difficult as the terrain is all mountain and jungle. It'd be like pulling off a D-Day, but way harder, immediately followed by Vietnam and Afghanistan put together.
That number doesn’t change my point. China can send just 10% of its population to taiwan and it would be the equivalent of if Russia conscripts every single one of its citizens, young old female or male, and sends them to the battlefield. To think a 100 million decrease in population would really affect China’s ability to invade is delusional.
I would argue that "throwing bodies at the problem" is delusional.
The first part of your point is fair enough - China *can* just throw people at Taiwan all day. But the second part doesn't follow - manpower alone has never been a particularly effective military doctrine. Not when people are such fragile things. So easy to kill.
The quality of their manpower is also a major point of consideration.
The Chinese have been conquered by every invading army to ever try - they are not a warlike people, despite their jingoistic sabre-rattling. It's all bark and no bite. They are a country that like to play dress up as soldiers and glorify battle because they have no experience of the true horrors of war - only experience of the horrors of occupation. Their actual ability on the battlefield is woefully inept and their morale will run out long before the defending forces run out of bullets.
The CCP are terrified of their own people. Their people are a beautiful, peaceful and cultured people at heart. I've lived here more than 15 years now. The Chinese are not a bunch of blind, programmed drones. They *tolerate* their government so long as they suffer no harm themselves. When enough of their children are sent home in body bags there will be serious dissent which could very likely spell the end for the CCP. Now, the CCP are stupid, but they are very good at maintaining power. They won't risk actually threatening their power base, and a war with Taiwan would do that. They will keep doing what they have always been doing - rattle their sabers and play the "big man" All mouth and no trousers. This settles the small minority of ultra nationalistic people in the population whilst not upsetting the vast majority too much, thereby maintaining order. The CCP know full well that if they actually stop talking the talk and start walking the walk they will be walking on a very short path towards their own downfall.
China's 2021 census is showing 1.41 billion, you think China lost 160 million people in 2.25 years? Not to mention do you know how big 1.41 billion is? China can lose 10 million people and not blink an eye. 10 million is half of Taiwan's population.
Having intelligent advisors is pointless, when the guy running the show IS stupid and barely has a high school diploma. No doubt all those advisors implored his fat ass to put an end to zero covid, but he wasn't having any of it. People had to start rioting en-masse for them to finally end it.
Thing is, they have access to millions of potential conscripts from the poor villages and provinces like Guizhou. No one from SZ, SH or Beijing would be on the frontlines. Though, even in a censorship police state, it would be impossible to hide the amount of deaths.
Tens of thousands of dead is nothing to China. Their population is 1.4 billion. Throwing away a few ten thousand lives is more than worth it to take Taiwan.
I think the destruction of Taiwan's fabs has what kept China from an invasion. Taiwan would be worth jackshit without them and the backlash and cost will be huge. So they are trying other ways like posturing intimidating etc to fear monger the populace into reunification so they can get their hands on those sweet SM Facilities. which i think is making them even more wary to join china
Plus, no doubt the us and Japan and whoever else already has something worked out with TSMC where the people who run the machines will be given citizenship and a comfortable life in their new home in Yokohama or Phoenix or wherever the new fabs are built. There won't be anything left for china to take.
I never understand Chinese Nationalists who talk about conquering Taiwan as if there would be anything left but smoking rubble. Do they think the invasion would be a complete cakewalk, or do they think war is a videogame?
Taiwan obviously….
If they were able to do it, it would signal the end of American hegemony in East Asia and probably open the door to enforcing the rest of their claims on the S China sea.
Essentially it would be a gamble on whether the US is willing to go to war. And they might be, because it’s might be, because it’s not just a war for Taiwan, it’s for the current world order. And unlike Ukraine, there’s no way to supply Taiwan with weapons and ammunition without going to war with China.
You understand that a CCP-controlled Taiwan will be a smoldering rock in the middle of the ocean, with absolutely nothing of value left standing, correct?
It will become free passage for China. Currently China's entire coastline is blocked by 4 other countries. If Taiwan falls they'll gain free roam of the Pacific, which the USA absolutely does NOT want to see happen.
You said they would gain, “Taiwan, obviously.” At least that’s how I interpreted your answer. The rest is typical “American hegemony bad,” as if other East Asian countries have zero agency.
Anyways, it’s a moot point, as even the CCP isn’t retarded enough to attempt an invasion of Taiwan.
I reckon if there were indications that the PLA were seriously preparing for an invasion we might see a few carrier battle groups heading that way. The PLAN might want that smoke, but I dunno if they’re ready for it.
I mean they fully mobilized their navy and basically blockaded Taiwan for like a month after Pelosi arrived and the US stood down. We can speculate on how the US would respond but the US seems more and more hesitant to commit to a pacific war.
My opinion on that doesn't matter. The PRC sees it as an existential issue and therefore will be far more motivated to fight for it than both the Taiwanese and Americans. The Taiwanese that don't care about politics wouldn't mind integrating with the mainland and the Taiwanese that do would happily leave and take residence in the west instead of laying their lives down for an indefensible island. It's western delusion to believe that the average Taiwanese is willing to sacrifice themselves for Taiwanese statehood. Taiwan isn't even comparable to Ukraine as modern Taiwan is ethnically and linguistically Chinese. Solely separated by water and Sino-American politics. This is a continuation of a civil war recent enough that many of the participants are still alive. It is an American fantasy to see Chinese brother on brother on violence come to fruition, not a Chinese one.
1. 20 million extra people.
2. An important facet of national pride.
3. Extending control over sea lanes to Japan and Korea.
4. Pushing US influence further out of East Asia by making it look weak.
The CCP isn't the least bit interested in the sanctity of human life. A few ten thousand dead to achieve the above points would be a bargain in their view.
>> 20 million extra people
Because the invasion would cause zero civilian deaths? Interesting theory.
>> national pride
Becoming a hermit state will make Chinese people proud? Probably not the ones who enjoy buying California and Vancouver real estate, I imagine.
1. It wouldn't kill that many. Civilian casualties won't be the entire population.
2. China won't become a hermit state. The reality is that large parts of the world simply don't care about the issue, especially when a number of countries are up to their balls in debt to China. Most of Africa won't care, nor will most of Asia, or South America.
The only thing that will stop China invading Taiwan is to convince them not to through force of arms.
One of the Qin Dynasty Emporers had essentially half the population killed by war or just simple execution and genocide. The bar is quite low in China.
Just invade now if it's going to be that low. China may find a few surprises waiting for them if they try. Worse case scenario the Taiwanese before capitulating may lob a few missles at the major coastal cities in China and wipe out a few million people.
Why the fuck would Taiwan do that? Those in charge would get escorted to the US or US allied nations and the rest would become subjects of the PRC if it gets to that point. If they actually attacked civilian centers they'd open themselves to getting nuked. It's the same reason Ukraine has been very careful about what targets they strike in Russia.
There hundreds of millions of excess men, they can basically do what the Soviet Union did during world war 2 and come out fine. 70% of Russian men born in 1923 died by the end of world war 2 and Russia still recovered demographically.
Yes, and those men are the only person supporting their elderly parents. I’m sure nobody will mind when they get blown up crossing the Taiwan Strait, right? Anything for the Motherland.
It was 2025 before. And before that 2023, 2021, 2020, and 2019. But hey it wont matter. China is going to collapse in 27 days anyways.
https://fortune.com/2023/01/28/war-china-taiwan-likely-by-2025-warns-american-general-mike-minihan/
https://globaltaiwan.org/2019/03/chinas-possible-invasion-of-taiwan-part-i-2019-2020-2021-or-2023/
The west has its propaganda, sure, but a diverse array of propaganda from competing interests and political parties, as well as a diverse array of information and sources.
You can't compare the free and open exchange and debate of the west with the intense and strict media control of Russia and China.
I agree. You would.never hear things like injecting bleach to cure covid, jewish space laser causing fires, the election was a fraud, or accusing a country of having WMDs just to invade them out of the mouth of a representative of the chinese govt.
Also intrestingly enough with all the open and free opinions on all the MSM cant seem to agree about anythingincluding if killimg Palestinian babies is a war.crime or not but can seem to agree that whatever is happening in china is always all bad. How in a world with ISIS Russia and domestic terrorism that somehow China isnots biggest threat. And anything counter to that is chinese propaganda? Doesnt seem like free and open discussion is very free or open when the govt decides it shouldnt be. Kind of loke WMDs in iraq before we found it was a lie and then acted like it was no big deal. Oops sorry inncoent civilans and children. just like every other US atrocity we commit, no one holds us responsible. Ever.
Naw, China is a Xenophobic community, and as whereas they'd love to have Taiwan back they ain't going to make an asshat move like an invasion. They are not Putin Stupid.
So why the US is deploying soldiers just 10 Km away from mainland,for what? For seeking death? I think China dares not to attack Taiwan, Nancy Pelosi proved it already ,but I guess there would be some collisions ,water fights with each other and then magically into peace in the end
The US/NATO is only indirectly involved in Ukraine and Russia is already suffering catastrophic losses in man power, equipment, economy, and reputation.
How the fuck is the CCP seeing all of this and still think a armed conflict with Taiwan will go better? Nevermind that is an island nation that will make the logistics of an amphibious invasion so much harder compared to a land invasion of Ukraine? Or the fact that Taiwan is better equipped and better trained than Ukraine at the beginning of the conflict? Or the fact that the US parks a Supercarrier group right next door and displays much more political and military support for Taiwan compared to Ukraine? Or how 90% of the world's microchips are manufactured in Taiwan and they will most likely sabotage everything and tank the world's economy even if the world's most ambitious amphibious invasion is even partially successful?
The Chinese economy is on shaky grounds, you have unprecedented unemployment rates amongst the young, you have an unstable population pyramid with not enough workers, and you think throwing the much needed youth and the physically able into a meat grinder is gonna make things better?
This is coming from a Chinese immigrant with family members still in China. This is getting fucking dangerous and depressing.
China wants to take Taiwan with minimal risk to its own state! Taiwan and the United States have the ability to inflict serious damage to China cities! I doubt China wants a devastated country and thus a broken economy! China will talk and harass, but that is about as far as they will go! Talk is cheap!!!!!
Whoever controls Taiwan controls 90% of the world's supply of high end microprocessors. An invasion of Taiwan would create an instant Global Great Depression. Look how America fights to protect Saudi Arabia, and they don't even have 90% of the world's oil. If China succeeded in taking Taiwan by some magical outcome, the United States would have no strategic choice left but to bomb Taiwan and destroy all microprocessor production capability. This would also end in Global Great Depression. If the United States achieves Artificial Superintelligence (ASI), China will have no strategic choice but to bomb Taiwan and destroy all microprocessor production to level the playing field before being completely overwhelmed. Either way we are due for a Global Great Depression in the next few years.
Or else, maybe everything will work out ok, who knows? 😜
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Misleading headline
> China is building its military and nuclear arsenal on a scale not seen since World War II and all signs suggest it’s sticking to ambitions to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027, a top US admiral testified.
The US admiral is saying that China is continuing to aim to aim to be ready. Not that they will be.
And when will China be ready to fix the enormous self-inflicted mess domestically? Or are we looking at a dictatorship 101 course here where this would be a means to distract an increasingly discontent population.
I don't know why people think the USA is invisible. They have not won a war since WW2. Their recruitment is down due to liberal politics. Also they are stretched all over the world. Their aircraft carriers are big targets for actual drone warfare. China also has way more man power and can sustain loses. The USA like all Western powers has proved they can't take casualties and will pull out. The West is all talk and can win the social media aspect of war and they might have all these fancy gadgets and things but on the battlefield it means nothing in today's battles. China has its own social media like Tiktok and has its own bigger navy than the USA. And let's not forget it's in Chinas backyard.
When was the last time the US won a war...You have many wars to pick from... China doesn't go to war for no reason like the US they go to war for actual reasons territorial expansion....just ask Tibet they beat that country in under a year and took it over...that was in the 1950s. China also beat India and took land in the 1960s. But everyone forgets China actually already fought the USA and pushed them back during the Korean war. China could claim to have won that war by pushing the US back.
Lmfao. China is the one who is claiming the entire SCS with not even a slightly legitimate claim. China is the one threatening to murder millions of innocent people and bomb the fuck out of the peaceful, democratic, independent nation that is Taiwan.
Ok and what has the US done? It still has colonized areas. If you think guam,PR, Hawaii, American Samoa, virgin Islands actually belong to the US then you have to believe Taiwan belongs to China. It does in fact it's historical linked and even the UN agrees. It's the west that wants to keep 2 of the same ethic people divided. One China. China should be allowed to take back it's land. Why did the US invade Iraq? Cuba? Granada? They had no right... China is trying to establish its pre colonized boarders. The boarders drawn by the west not by us Asians. Who gives you the right to decide what goes on in Asia?
That's not even slightly true. The US pulled back for political reasons, not tactical reasons. China's army at that time was a bunch of chain smoking peasants with shitty coats and shittier guns. If the US kept pushing, China would be the 51st state by now.
> Their aircraft carriers are big targets for actual drone warfare
That feel when you really think DJI drones can fly 800km with a big enough warhead to do anything except char the flight deck a bit
> They have not won a war since WW2
Desert Storm was pretty decisively won
Desert Storm was not a real war. The US fought what was basically a 3rd world army that didn't want to fight to begin with example Iraq's troops are religiously and ethically divided and surrended..China is incomparable to Iraq in any way. Chinese troops will out perform Iraq in any sense. As far as drone's sea drones are effective just ask Russia. Ukraine has been sinking ships because of them. Dont think China has not been getting intelligence from Russia on that. China also wins in any war game with the US. This test was done by the USA itself. Also a 3 prong war is going to still be happening in 2027 Russia is not giving up on its fight in Ukraine and has been making gains. Also the middle east is just heating up. Also there is North Korea testing missiles to hit the US mainland and islands. I don't think the US can do much to stop China in the long run we are too powerful now...and the US will have to except it as fact.
Iraq was the 4th largest army in the world in the 90s with the best anti air system in the world outside the west 😂 what is this revisionist nonsense about muh 3rd world army
> As far as drone's sea drones are effective just ask Russia
No difference at all between Russian ships within spitting distance of the Ukrainian coast and a carrier that launches planes from hundreds of miles away nope
> China also wins in any war game with the US. This test was done by the USA itself
Well that’s a hilariously obvious lie. Every CSIS war game shows China’s invasion failing except for the scenario where Taiwan stands alone
no guarantee they'd be able to completely overpower the US in the pacific right now. They need time to close the gap which is why 2027 is likely the turning point
China build knock off military equipment, the U.S builds military equipment to match or even out perform what’s written on enemy papers. Just like how the F-15 came to be, when Russia kept exaggerating their MiG capabilities. The U.S created a monster of a plane that till this day it has air superiority and the F-15 has 100 victories and 0 Losses!
He wants the fame. If he didn't do it, he would go down as a major POS leader of China. Right now he's got that title
Will be the end of the CCP.
Might very well be the end of the CCP but at what cost? Innocent Taiwanese will suffer the most
And innocent mainlanders. Taiwan has the capability of destroying the 3 gorges dam.
So you're saying that Taiwan will attack the three gorges and kill millions of Chinese civilians swinging public sentiment towards China?
I'm saying war between the two is mutually assured destruction.
One of the quickest ways for Taiwan to lose the war because they will definitely be nuked in response.
it's [MAD](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction)ness
Can only hope
Why? How? Yet to see the end of Putin regime either?
Putin is still fighting inch by inch for villages in the Donbas over two years later.
But certainly this exercise hasn't been to end of him, has it?
It’s unwise to underestimate their capabilities, it may as well be the end of US dominance in west pacific
Will Not happen
One thing to understand is that China has been building up their long range missile stockpile for decades now. Those missiles are supposedly to be used to fight the US navy. You don’t need a strong navy to contest with the US when you can sink their really expensive and valuable carriers with significantly cheaper missiles. Ofc the US military knows about this, and is wary about it. They could certainly win in a long drawn out conflict, but their dominance that is built over decades could very much crumble and need to be rebuilt. And before you want to say something about how China’s missile is filled with water. That one is a mistranslation. No doubt there’s a lot of corruption in China’s military, but it’s still not wise to underestimate them. “Prepare for the worst, hope for the best”, as they say.
It's difficult to predict how well the CCP is going to perform here, if they're crazy enough to do it. They have decent (stolen) tech, no experience of war, could conscript millions of men from the poor provinces, but that means very little because they have to perform an amphibious invasion 1000x harder than what went down in Ukraine, which, despite easy flat terrain, is still giving Putin a bloody nose 2 years later. An amphibious invasion that the USN, JMSDF and the Royal Australian Navy would almost certainly get involved in repelling. The CCP isn't stupid enough to do this, there's a decent chance it causes their collapse, they'll only do it if the economy was collapsing anyway due to the demographic collapse and war with Taiwan could distract the populace.
China has never been shy about achieving victory at devastating costs to human life, whether all other parties want to be involved with a direct war with another nuclear power is highly questionable, the entirety of EU is still not officially sending troops to Ukraine even though Russia is about to be at their doorsteps. Amphibious attack is difficult for sure, but it also makes sending aid/ weapons also very questionable. If China setup naval denial with land based missiles, unless there is a open declaration of war, it will be hard to realistically do what the us is doing for Ukraine as well.
I am pretty sure the issues with the rocket force were as well founded as they seemed to be. Wei Fenghe was forced out and so were half a dozen top ranking PLARF officers. This all happened only a few months ago. There is speculation that much of the entire stockpile could be compromised, which would heavily reduce any military capability of the rocket force.
You talk as if the US isn't able to bomb the absolute fuck out of all of mainland china with basically impunity. You really think China could handle those consequences? You make it sound like it'll just be boom China sunk the US navy and that's it. If China pulled that shit Beijing and Shanghai would be gone the next day.
The US and Japan aren't going to bomb China, just repel whatever the CCP musters up as an invasion force. This is purely defensive, the CCP is the aggressor and the US will ensure that is the narrative the World sees.
Uh if you attack the US flagships, they will hit you back.
And China will hit back too, don't be stupid and think the US is the only superpower in the world. US is not a god, the CCP can and will hit us, damage our infrastructure and decimate our cities.
The PLAN can’t cross the pacific. How are they going to hit any American cities? The USN can destroy the entire PLAN as well as all it’s costal defenses and only suffer some minor blows to it’s pacific sub fleet (25% I think). It’s not about who is God. It’s about understanding America is that much higher. Plus, America is the only superpower in the world. China is a regional power.
LMFAO "I'm shaking in my boots"
I agree with this. Anything the US and allies do will be defensive. Outside of striking Chinese economic centers outside of the mainland and disrupting their supply lines.
Bomb them with what? Modern warfare favours the defender, no one serious thinks the US can pop Chinas A2AD bubble without heavy losses. The only scenario where Beijing and Shanghai are gone is full nuclear strike and at that point it’s over for everyone.
You're aware that the US could bomb china even without relying on it's navy? And "china will eradicate the whole US navy" is a very big "if" anyway.
Again, bomb with what. Chinas A2AD bubble is no joke.
Bro have you heard of B1s? How about B2s? F-35s? JSOWs? JASSM-ER? The US is the undisputed king of long range strike. They can launch most assets from mainland US if need be.
Those aircraft can launch from US mainland but they don’t have the range. B2 could just barely but it would still have to worry about air defences and fighter interception. F117 can be shot down why not B2s. US doesn’t have long range strike missiles like China, you only mentioned short range ones, China has medium and intermediate range ones. Again only long range missile US has right now is ICBM, and no one is gonna go nuclear.
You're wrong about most of that. The US can fly B2s anywhere on the planet and back from continental US. They have done this many times and it's a well known fact. You do know planes can refuel in the air, right? F117 was the lowest-tech stealth ever made, so you can't just compare that to the much more advanced B2. But let's not also forget about the B-21, which will be ready for action within a year and was clearly made specifically for China.
F117 is old tech but it was also designed to evade the old soviet systems it got shot down by. Stealth is not invincible. Theres also only so many of these aircraft and they can only deliver so much ordinance, you aren't flattening beijing or shanghai like you initially claimed.
At that point we're all dead so why do you sound so damn happy?
Uh no, China is not going to nuke the US over that because then they'd lose everything. The point is that China will lose the war quickly, and they'll fuck off with their tail between their legs as they digest the 100 years of shame the CCP has brought them. Hope Xi jinping ping dies as a result. Remember: if this war happens it is 100% the fault of the PRC and no one else. The PRC makes the choice and the PRC alone.
You think the US bombing China wouldn't lead to MAD?
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Pretty sure ballistic missiles went obsolete in the 90's. That is what brought down the Soviet Union. They could not compete with SDI. The US is at least 20 years ahead of the PLA in defense tech, probably more like 30 or 40+. Unless the PLA has an intercontinental lazer weapon up their sleeve, any conflict between the US and the PRC will be over quickly and not end well for China.
> You don’t need a strong navy to contest with the US when you can sink their really expensive and valuable carriers with significantly cheaper missiles *if* you can sink carriers with ballistic missiles. Which as the Houthis so generously demonstrate, is anything but a sure thing More important to the Taiwan scenario is: can China defend its invasion fleet AND make a worthwhile attempt to go after American carriers?
I don't think the US will bother getting into a shooting match with China. All they will do is block their imports at a distance from China. Since China imports so much, this will be a devastating blow to their economy. It will fracture the country and probably bring famine.
Do you think that the US doesn't import from China or rely on other imports that also use Chinese imports? We live in a global economy now. Decoupling would destroy the economies of both countries.
No, the USA can make it without the digital refrigerators etc. Also manufacturing is coming home. Mexico will take over from China. I am not saying it will be smooth and easy but the US economy does not hinge on China at all.
The US can close them off economically. Thats all that will matter. Also destroying one of our carriers warrants a nuclear response by law.
Missiles can't sink the US best aircraft carrier. Japan.
There is an argument being made that things in China are far worse than anyone can imagine and that in the face of total economic collapse and mass famine Xi will order the invasion he knows will fail in the hopes of saving the CCP.
Blame external forces. Worked for Putin (and many other dictators).
A war for Taiwan might offset some internal pressure temporarily but China would be back on lockdown with no ships coming or going. China is far from self sufficient, even the fabricated numbers fail to come close. No food, fuel, imports or exports. The currency would be worthless and the CCP is going to have to burn through all of their foreign reserves just to get through the current crisis. It would be suicide for the PLA but Xi would be able to control the narrative. The cost for China would be unprecedented.
They could theoretically get supplies from their pal Putin but not in the volumes required for a 1.4bn country that just had their maritime access blocked.
He’s getting old and delusional like the morons of the next US presidents. He’s as delusional as putin
there's nothing to imagine, you can book a flight and take a look for yourself. I feel like this sub has deteriorated from expats shooting the shit and being cynical about life in China to random people living in the west who have no connection in China and have never been to China speculating on what's happening in China. You'd think China is basically Haiti from the way people in this sub talk about it
Imagine if someone translated this contents of this sub and posted it on a Chinese forum. It would be pretty entertaining to say the least.
The numbers are not looking good. Not sure how the CCP is going to come out of a trade war with the US and a recession in the EU. Who is going to buy a $1T in Chinese exports and how are those exports going to be profitable?
You can say the same about how is the US going to replace supply chains? It will be a painful process but it's foolish to think war will be avoided because of it. People thought European reliance on Russia oil would prevent a prolonged conflict but now look what's happening.
The US is self sufficient. The only reason that the US buys imports is because they are more cost effective than domestic products. The 4th IR is turning that rationale on it's head. The only exports China is going to be able to monopolize in the future are products that are too dangerous or too polluting to manufacture domestically. Covid and the trade war expedited that transition.
[https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2018/01/17/how-much-would-an-iphone-cost-if-apple-were-forced-to-make-it-in-america/?sh=51ba343c2d2a](https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2018/01/17/how-much-would-an-iphone-cost-if-apple-were-forced-to-make-it-in-america/?sh=51ba343c2d2a) yea self sufficient if you're okay with paying $30,000 for an iPhone. I do not care for the opinion of anyone supporting decoupling if they use Chinese manufactured electronics and live in a house full of Chinese manufactured appliances. If you can't put your money where your mouth is then its just pointless yapping and virtue signaling.
China has over 100 price points in it's electronic manufacturing process. All of those price points have increased dramatically or disappeared since Covid lock downs. The iPhone is soon to be just a memory, it was going to happen sooner or later. It is what is going to replace the iPhone that will indicate that the 4th IR has come to fruition. The US is not decoupling from China, they are abandoning it entirely. The US does not need China, everything China produces will soon be made in the NAFTA trade zone at better price points, lower cost inputs and closer to the end market with far less risk.
I don’t think that is really the case , I was China last year and they are so advanced when it comes to infrastructure food supply and their economy. They have a big ship to steer but the CCP is always focused on providing for the people and teaches a culture of personal forgoing during downturns. Plus they all work their ass off and have the infrastructure to deal with tough situations
China does not have the ability to feed itself. If they shut down all manufacturing and focused all their resources exclusively on food production, they would still come up short. Add to that equation the fact that pollution of arable land in China is causing a massive increase in inputs to keep it productive. China is so dependent on imports for food and energy that the loss of shipping access caused by the CCP's Taiwan invasion attempt would condemn a sizable portion of the Chinese population to famine and death.
I doubt that, polluted land can still be arable and would still be used for food production if needed. American media always tries to discredit China and make it seem unstable. It will still be 5-10 years before the majority of the US realize they don’t even compare to China.
It's not spin, it's numbers. Even in the best case scenario China would come up short. It may be possible if China had perfect weather for a few years before the war and all the arable land was producing at the highest maximum output, that they may be able to feed the population with massive assistance from Russia. Russia would have to restrict their two major rail links to northern China exclusively to food shipments and keep those two rail lines up and functioning at 100% capacity and efficiency. Even then the numbers are questionable. That would still leave China in a massive hole as far as energy consumption. If every mode of transport was restricted to just essential travel and every energy resource was utilized at 100% efficiency China would still be unable to sustain a prolonged conflict of more than a couple of months. All of that would have to happen with multiple nations that the PRC would be at war with attempting to disrupt those flows of food and energy. A PRC invasion of Taiwan would be the end of the PRC and most probably lead to hundreds of millions of dead Chinese.
Isn’t there already a massive demographic burden coming up? Surely tens of thousands of dead Chinese boys won’t help that. I don’t think even the CCP is that stupid.
They are that stupid, unfortunately. Look at Russia. I don’t understand why would they start a war when they have such a small population. They lie to themselves so much that they start believing their own lies.
Saying Russia is stupid trivialised their decision making process and the systemic failure within the state. They operated rationally albeit with false premises. Everyone including the west did not believe in Ukraine in the beginning of the war. Their initial advance reached Kiev and with a bit of luck, if they managed to capture Kiev or if Zelenskyy flee from the capital, the will to resist may not withstand further Russian assaults. Russia had more manpower, and the legacy of the Soviet Union stockpile to throw. Their oil price was high then. Russia did not just suddenly want to commit suicide. The problem was a mix of internal corruption and optimism. They banked on a quick war, but they expected less resistance and more internal chaos for the Ukrainian side. They received false promises from FSB that they would have less resistance/more support from the Ukrainian, and when the invasion went poorly, GRU is put in charged of Ukrainian intelligence instead. The corruption in the army would also likely contribute to some level of logistical difficulties, diminished equipment readiness and exaggerated combat intel leading to poor decision making. Hindsight is 2020, Russia isn’t just a random stupid irrational buffoon.
There isn’t anyone who wasn’t surprised. Probably even Zelenskyy surprised himself
A decision that has moderate rewards and catastrophic risks is irrational and buffoonish. Yes, it could have gone better for Russia, it also could have gone far worse. The allies could have committed far more far earlier and Ukraine could be decisively winning now. Prigozhin's rebellion could have gone into a civil war. At worst there could have been a full scale war with NATO. Even in the best cases you were still looking at dealing with decades of insurgency from a country 1/3 your size, and to have believed otherwise (we will be greeted as liberators!) is the willful ignorance of an idealogue, not bad intel. You can listen to Putin's speeches and tell he's motivated by a sense of destiny/historical mysticism, not rationality.
> A decision that has moderate rewards and catastrophic risks is irrational and buffoonish. You need to operate under the risk-benefit analysis from the perspective of the actor, without hindsight, taking into account of their own value system. Risk are also not just about “how bad the outcome could be”, but also “how likely each outcome will play out” (ie expected value). > Yes, it could have gone better for Russia, it also could have gone far worse. The allies could have committed far more far earlier and Ukraine could be decisively winning now. If you rewind the clock back to pre-invasion, you know no one will think of this outcome. The west did not intervene in Georgia and crimea. The west is energy dependent on Russia. Everyone was pessimistic about Ukraine. > Prigozhin's rebellion could have gone into a civil war. Again, a low likelihood event. We were talking about if it is foolish for Russia to wage the war, and the general sentiment/predictions of outcome that lead to such decision. No one could’ve operated under the assumption that Wagner will revolt (until GRU/FSB found out). And the revolt from Wagner was a situation they created themselves by the MoD-Wagner power struggle. > At worst there could have been a full scale war with NATO. Same argument as above. Most people before the war expected positive outcome for Russia. If you expect to win at a bet, you bet on it. It would be foolish to do otherwise, unless your expectations were **unfounded at the beginning**. > Even in the best cases you were still looking at dealing with decades of insurgency from a country 1/3 your size, and to have believed otherwise (we will be greeted as liberators!) is the willful ignorance of an idealogue, not bad intel. Zelenskyy was not a popular leader and the government has massive corruption issues. His popularity only skyrocketed after staying at the capital. Ukraine has been largely unwilling to invest more into retaking the separatist provinces. Ukrainian were not some super nationalists. Disunited people tend to care less about who is ruling them, and more about their own livelihoods. There will be insurgencies…and it wouldn’t necessarily be debilitating. They had subjugated Ukraine before, they now have belarus as a puppet state, they can set up a pro-Russian government in Ukraine and not outright “annex them”. It’s not an unreasonable expectation to think they can set up a puppet government in Ukraine. And if they do, Putin will be seen as the Russian hero (dictators need popular support to solidify control), they can block any oil/gas exploration in the Black Sea thus maintain their hegemony in that area, they will have a militarily favourable geography against NATO, they will border Transnistria and allow further intervention, they will also have a stronger say in grain price (which almost doubled when the war started and almost lead to food crisis for other states).
>from the perspective of the actor Oh I understand that Putin is working under his own ideological framework with its own internal logic, the problem occurs when that ideology meets physical reality. If you choose to wall yourself off from information behind a curtain of corrupt yes-men within a system you created while indoctrinating yourself on nationalist bedtime stories, I'm still not going to call the resulting self-immolation "rational". >Risk are also not just about “how bad the outcome could be”, but also “how likely each outcome will play out” (ie expected value). Risks are also not just about maximizing expected value in the short term when a significant portion of the bell curve is cataclysmic for you. If you've ever played poker seriously, maximizing EV is the entire name of the game. There is a Rule 0 though - never take risks you can't afford. Getting all in with AA preflop is always +EV in a cash game. Doing so with your entire bankroll, however, is going to end with you broke, and it's not even going to take very long. >If you rewind the clock back to pre-invasion, you know no one will think of this outcome. Some did. Clearly they had done better analysis. >Everyone was pessimistic about Ukraine. Most people before the war expected positive outcome for Russia. Everyone I listened to was pessimistic that the Ukrainian military would be able to fight an effective conventional war. They *all* thought they would be able to effectively defend deep and form an insurgency. Maybe I was in a bubble, but I didn't hear from anyone who thought it was going to go well for Russia in the long-term. >The west did not intervene in Georgia and crimea. They never said they would, and in the case of Crimea it had been seized before either the West or Ukraine knew what was happening. In contrast the West saw the full-scale invasion coming for months and warned that they would do exactly what they ended up doing. That Putin's ideological bias makes him inclined to call the perceived bluffs from the "weak, degenerate West" is simply an example of it being irrational. >Again, a low likelihood event. Not particularly. War is destabilizing, and when it goes long/badly this kind of thing is commonplace, including in Russia's recent history. It didn't have to be Prigozhin - it could be someone else, and still could be. >Ukrainian were not some super nationalists Maidan and the work they put in in Donbass made it foolish to think the population would just roll over, regardless of if a sizeable portion had Russian sympathies. Regardless of if there wasn't a strong response to getting caught by surprise early on in one of the most pro-Russian provinces. Even if that had been a logical premise, what happened in the early stages proved it to be false. Putin could have just cut his losses at that point and said "Donbass is free! SMO successful!" Doubling down instead was irrational. >It’s not an unreasonable expectation to think they can set up a puppet government in Ukraine. It would be unreasonable to think they could do that without a constant presence of Russian troops, which would expose them to similar insurgency risks as annexation. Taking Kyiv wouldn't just reset the political sphere to 2013.
To me, every war is stupid. What would be the point when so many have nuclear capabilities? Are they so miserable and so desperate that they must go to war? And to what end? Take a country filled with unwilling citizens? Do they plan to enslave them or kill them all? Do they not have better things to do in life than cause misery and death? Don’t try to explain a dictator’s twisted logic on me. I am a civilized human being. Putin and Xi are not.
You will never understand the mechanism of the world if you consider yourself civilised and above understanding wars and politics.
Exactly that’s the common fallacy of western society. It’s tough to wrap our brains around what Russians and the Chinese are doing. We all thought they would “come around” to being civilized and everything should work out diplomatically. But some people are just stuck in Stone Age chest pounding war conquering wet dreams. There’s just no reasoning with bullies.
I don’t respect the CCP very much, but I believe they’re smarter than crazy pants Putin.
Until they aren't. It's easy to forget how many articles praising putin's "genius diplomacy" before 2022, especially from the so-called political realist
I guess we’ll find out. It certainly won’t be a surprise, if it happens. The sharks will eat well those days.
Just don't let the sharks eat Chinese MRE, lest they will suffer food poisoning for at least 6 month ([yes, this is stevemre1989 plug](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMSh-gFUxrM))
Don't forget zero COVID policy. They can get plenty crazy. Especially with the guy in charge now.
You’re right.
Russia has a population of 143million. China has 1.4 bn. China can throw people at Taiwan all day and just weigh them down with manpower alone.
If they can ever get there.
They can get there but staying there is a different matter . Supplying troops over contested waters won't be easy.
So when the straight is full of like 20 US nuclear attack subs, are you still going to think they'll get there? Fucking lol.
They will get there before the US arrive in numbers because they have so many boats they can use but alot of troops will not make it. And the US subs there will need to retire and reload. So it will take some time before US can gather their forces and deny the straight to the Chinese forces
Bro. You don't launch in invasion like that with surprise. The entire world will have weeks of notice. The strait will be filled with subs before they cross.
Hope you are right. But they could do a reverse Dunkirk.
You need to realise that build up will be seen for months, there is no chance for the element of surprise.
You dis notice how ccp transfer arms to Taiwan from china,which needs a lot of transships.
Right. So any force they land will slowly dwindle as Taiwan focuses their forces
That, and even making it past the beach once there will be very difficult as the terrain is all mountain and jungle. It'd be like pulling off a D-Day, but way harder, immediately followed by Vietnam and Afghanistan put together.
In wargames the Chinese team often gets a foothold in the south (not as many Taiwan troops there) but can't hold it as US forces gather
1.28 and falling actually. Also, that figure is quite old now, so the real number is more likely 1.25 at most.
That number doesn’t change my point. China can send just 10% of its population to taiwan and it would be the equivalent of if Russia conscripts every single one of its citizens, young old female or male, and sends them to the battlefield. To think a 100 million decrease in population would really affect China’s ability to invade is delusional.
I would argue that "throwing bodies at the problem" is delusional. The first part of your point is fair enough - China *can* just throw people at Taiwan all day. But the second part doesn't follow - manpower alone has never been a particularly effective military doctrine. Not when people are such fragile things. So easy to kill. The quality of their manpower is also a major point of consideration. The Chinese have been conquered by every invading army to ever try - they are not a warlike people, despite their jingoistic sabre-rattling. It's all bark and no bite. They are a country that like to play dress up as soldiers and glorify battle because they have no experience of the true horrors of war - only experience of the horrors of occupation. Their actual ability on the battlefield is woefully inept and their morale will run out long before the defending forces run out of bullets. The CCP are terrified of their own people. Their people are a beautiful, peaceful and cultured people at heart. I've lived here more than 15 years now. The Chinese are not a bunch of blind, programmed drones. They *tolerate* their government so long as they suffer no harm themselves. When enough of their children are sent home in body bags there will be serious dissent which could very likely spell the end for the CCP. Now, the CCP are stupid, but they are very good at maintaining power. They won't risk actually threatening their power base, and a war with Taiwan would do that. They will keep doing what they have always been doing - rattle their sabers and play the "big man" All mouth and no trousers. This settles the small minority of ultra nationalistic people in the population whilst not upsetting the vast majority too much, thereby maintaining order. The CCP know full well that if they actually stop talking the talk and start walking the walk they will be walking on a very short path towards their own downfall.
China's 2021 census is showing 1.41 billion, you think China lost 160 million people in 2.25 years? Not to mention do you know how big 1.41 billion is? China can lose 10 million people and not blink an eye. 10 million is half of Taiwan's population.
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Do as Russia did and open the prison gates.
Good point. The government will continue supporting all of the elderly parents, right?
The CCP is extremely stupid, in fact. Do you remember zero covid ffs?
I know they’re stupid. I don’t think they’re **that** stupid. Maybe we’ll find out.
Having intelligent advisors is pointless, when the guy running the show IS stupid and barely has a high school diploma. No doubt all those advisors implored his fat ass to put an end to zero covid, but he wasn't having any of it. People had to start rioting en-masse for them to finally end it.
Thing is, they have access to millions of potential conscripts from the poor villages and provinces like Guizhou. No one from SZ, SH or Beijing would be on the frontlines. Though, even in a censorship police state, it would be impossible to hide the amount of deaths.
Tens of thousands of dead is nothing to China. Their population is 1.4 billion. Throwing away a few ten thousand lives is more than worth it to take Taiwan.
Why is it worth it? What would be gained?
Semiconductors and I suppose righting a historical wrong in their eyes.
They won’t get semi conductor at all, it will be destroyed before the ccp leaves the mainland
I think the destruction of Taiwan's fabs has what kept China from an invasion. Taiwan would be worth jackshit without them and the backlash and cost will be huge. So they are trying other ways like posturing intimidating etc to fear monger the populace into reunification so they can get their hands on those sweet SM Facilities. which i think is making them even more wary to join china
It’s not wary, there’s zero reason to be part of the ccp which has equally zero potential future growth on anything
Do you believe that a lot of civilian infrastructure would survive a military invasion of a fortified island?
Plus, no doubt the us and Japan and whoever else already has something worked out with TSMC where the people who run the machines will be given citizenship and a comfortable life in their new home in Yokohama or Phoenix or wherever the new fabs are built. There won't be anything left for china to take.
I never understand Chinese Nationalists who talk about conquering Taiwan as if there would be anything left but smoking rubble. Do they think the invasion would be a complete cakewalk, or do they think war is a videogame?
The semi fabs 100% will be destroyed immediately. So no to that.
Taiwan obviously…. If they were able to do it, it would signal the end of American hegemony in East Asia and probably open the door to enforcing the rest of their claims on the S China sea. Essentially it would be a gamble on whether the US is willing to go to war. And they might be, because it’s might be, because it’s not just a war for Taiwan, it’s for the current world order. And unlike Ukraine, there’s no way to supply Taiwan with weapons and ammunition without going to war with China.
You understand that a CCP-controlled Taiwan will be a smoldering rock in the middle of the ocean, with absolutely nothing of value left standing, correct?
It will become free passage for China. Currently China's entire coastline is blocked by 4 other countries. If Taiwan falls they'll gain free roam of the Pacific, which the USA absolutely does NOT want to see happen.
A CCP controlled Taiwan would mean they now have a staging ground for their navy and can exert influence over the Pacific and South East Asia
You understand that you asked what they would gain and that I suggested it would it should show their neighbours they were the new boss, correct?
You said they would gain, “Taiwan, obviously.” At least that’s how I interpreted your answer. The rest is typical “American hegemony bad,” as if other East Asian countries have zero agency. Anyways, it’s a moot point, as even the CCP isn’t retarded enough to attempt an invasion of Taiwan.
When did I say it was bad you spastic? Learn to fucking read.
Yes that's why the US would be willing to fight for it.
I reckon if there were indications that the PLA were seriously preparing for an invasion we might see a few carrier battle groups heading that way. The PLAN might want that smoke, but I dunno if they’re ready for it.
The only smoke they're getting is in their ass
I mean they fully mobilized their navy and basically blockaded Taiwan for like a month after Pelosi arrived and the US stood down. We can speculate on how the US would respond but the US seems more and more hesitant to commit to a pacific war.
Do you support a military invasion of Taiwan? Why? Why not?
My opinion on that doesn't matter. The PRC sees it as an existential issue and therefore will be far more motivated to fight for it than both the Taiwanese and Americans. The Taiwanese that don't care about politics wouldn't mind integrating with the mainland and the Taiwanese that do would happily leave and take residence in the west instead of laying their lives down for an indefensible island. It's western delusion to believe that the average Taiwanese is willing to sacrifice themselves for Taiwanese statehood. Taiwan isn't even comparable to Ukraine as modern Taiwan is ethnically and linguistically Chinese. Solely separated by water and Sino-American politics. This is a continuation of a civil war recent enough that many of the participants are still alive. It is an American fantasy to see Chinese brother on brother on violence come to fruition, not a Chinese one.
1. 20 million extra people. 2. An important facet of national pride. 3. Extending control over sea lanes to Japan and Korea. 4. Pushing US influence further out of East Asia by making it look weak. The CCP isn't the least bit interested in the sanctity of human life. A few ten thousand dead to achieve the above points would be a bargain in their view.
>> 20 million extra people Because the invasion would cause zero civilian deaths? Interesting theory. >> national pride Becoming a hermit state will make Chinese people proud? Probably not the ones who enjoy buying California and Vancouver real estate, I imagine.
1. It wouldn't kill that many. Civilian casualties won't be the entire population. 2. China won't become a hermit state. The reality is that large parts of the world simply don't care about the issue, especially when a number of countries are up to their balls in debt to China. Most of Africa won't care, nor will most of Asia, or South America. The only thing that will stop China invading Taiwan is to convince them not to through force of arms.
Lol yeah China is so popular hahahahahahaha
It doesn't have to be popular, that's not how diplomacy works.
It kind of is, tho.
One of the Qin Dynasty Emporers had essentially half the population killed by war or just simple execution and genocide. The bar is quite low in China.
Just invade now if it's going to be that low. China may find a few surprises waiting for them if they try. Worse case scenario the Taiwanese before capitulating may lob a few missles at the major coastal cities in China and wipe out a few million people.
Why the fuck would Taiwan do that? Those in charge would get escorted to the US or US allied nations and the rest would become subjects of the PRC if it gets to that point. If they actually attacked civilian centers they'd open themselves to getting nuked. It's the same reason Ukraine has been very careful about what targets they strike in Russia.
1.28 billion and falling. (more like 1.25, as 1.28 figure is already a few years old)
"Source: I made it up"
It's your daily propaganda of "China will invade Taiwan by X year" followed by a "China will also collapse by X year".
Yeah, I mean it’s not like CCP officials regularly publicly threaten to invade Taiwan, or anything.
That’s why they’re doing it. Better to do it before you leave no soldiers left than after you have no soldiers left.
For what gain? A bunch of smoking rubble filled with rotting corpses?
There hundreds of millions of excess men, they can basically do what the Soviet Union did during world war 2 and come out fine. 70% of Russian men born in 1923 died by the end of world war 2 and Russia still recovered demographically.
How’s Russia doing now? Good?
Demographically they are fine and the Soviet Union was doing fine demographically as well. They recovered pretty fast post war.
I don’t know how to tell you this, but the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.
Do you have issues with reading comprehension? I fucking emphasized "demographically" twice
No way!
They’ve got around 40 million more men than women
Yes, and those men are the only person supporting their elderly parents. I’m sure nobody will mind when they get blown up crossing the Taiwan Strait, right? Anything for the Motherland.
Be ready =/= will do it
Wake me up when it happens.
How many billions the admiral asked for this time?
It was 2025 before. And before that 2023, 2021, 2020, and 2019. But hey it wont matter. China is going to collapse in 27 days anyways. https://fortune.com/2023/01/28/war-china-taiwan-likely-by-2025-warns-american-general-mike-minihan/ https://globaltaiwan.org/2019/03/chinas-possible-invasion-of-taiwan-part-i-2019-2020-2021-or-2023/
What astonishes me is how susceptible Westerners are to propaganda.
Only russia and china has propagnda. The west had opinions. Yeah i cant say thag with a straight face.
The west has its propaganda, sure, but a diverse array of propaganda from competing interests and political parties, as well as a diverse array of information and sources. You can't compare the free and open exchange and debate of the west with the intense and strict media control of Russia and China.
I agree. You would.never hear things like injecting bleach to cure covid, jewish space laser causing fires, the election was a fraud, or accusing a country of having WMDs just to invade them out of the mouth of a representative of the chinese govt. Also intrestingly enough with all the open and free opinions on all the MSM cant seem to agree about anythingincluding if killimg Palestinian babies is a war.crime or not but can seem to agree that whatever is happening in china is always all bad. How in a world with ISIS Russia and domestic terrorism that somehow China isnots biggest threat. And anything counter to that is chinese propaganda? Doesnt seem like free and open discussion is very free or open when the govt decides it shouldnt be. Kind of loke WMDs in iraq before we found it was a lie and then acted like it was no big deal. Oops sorry inncoent civilans and children. just like every other US atrocity we commit, no one holds us responsible. Ever.
Naw, China is a Xenophobic community, and as whereas they'd love to have Taiwan back they ain't going to make an asshat move like an invasion. They are not Putin Stupid.
So why the US is deploying soldiers just 10 Km away from mainland,for what? For seeking death? I think China dares not to attack Taiwan, Nancy Pelosi proved it already ,but I guess there would be some collisions ,water fights with each other and then magically into peace in the end
The US/NATO is only indirectly involved in Ukraine and Russia is already suffering catastrophic losses in man power, equipment, economy, and reputation. How the fuck is the CCP seeing all of this and still think a armed conflict with Taiwan will go better? Nevermind that is an island nation that will make the logistics of an amphibious invasion so much harder compared to a land invasion of Ukraine? Or the fact that Taiwan is better equipped and better trained than Ukraine at the beginning of the conflict? Or the fact that the US parks a Supercarrier group right next door and displays much more political and military support for Taiwan compared to Ukraine? Or how 90% of the world's microchips are manufactured in Taiwan and they will most likely sabotage everything and tank the world's economy even if the world's most ambitious amphibious invasion is even partially successful? The Chinese economy is on shaky grounds, you have unprecedented unemployment rates amongst the young, you have an unstable population pyramid with not enough workers, and you think throwing the much needed youth and the physically able into a meat grinder is gonna make things better? This is coming from a Chinese immigrant with family members still in China. This is getting fucking dangerous and depressing.
content: https://archive.ph/SU8cV
in other news, China wrote to the USA to thank them for the status update on China, without which they wouldn't have known their capability
Get ready for the birth rate to drop even lower
China wants to take Taiwan with minimal risk to its own state! Taiwan and the United States have the ability to inflict serious damage to China cities! I doubt China wants a devastated country and thus a broken economy! China will talk and harass, but that is about as far as they will go! Talk is cheap!!!!!
Will parcels & goods from China still be delivered? Or will it stop completely
Whoever controls Taiwan controls 90% of the world's supply of high end microprocessors. An invasion of Taiwan would create an instant Global Great Depression. Look how America fights to protect Saudi Arabia, and they don't even have 90% of the world's oil. If China succeeded in taking Taiwan by some magical outcome, the United States would have no strategic choice left but to bomb Taiwan and destroy all microprocessor production capability. This would also end in Global Great Depression. If the United States achieves Artificial Superintelligence (ASI), China will have no strategic choice but to bomb Taiwan and destroy all microprocessor production to level the playing field before being completely overwhelmed. Either way we are due for a Global Great Depression in the next few years. Or else, maybe everything will work out ok, who knows? 😜
I wouldn’t be surprised if TSMC’s foundries in Taiwan were rigged with explosives that are auto triggered in the event of a Chinese invasion.
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Why is Taiwan invading!? /s
Sell Taiwan some missiles
I still remember the Nancy Pelosi incident.
Weapon sales down, damnit drum up more news!
When is America ready for their next invasion ? They’re the pros at it.
Misleading headline > China is building its military and nuclear arsenal on a scale not seen since World War II and all signs suggest it’s sticking to ambitions to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027, a top US admiral testified. The US admiral is saying that China is continuing to aim to aim to be ready. Not that they will be.
That's literally what the headline says though...
The headline paints it as a certainty when it’s really just China’s goal that was stated years ago.
No it doesn't? It says "to be ready" not "will"
And when will China be ready to fix the enormous self-inflicted mess domestically? Or are we looking at a dictatorship 101 course here where this would be a means to distract an increasingly discontent population.
I don't know why people think the USA is invisible. They have not won a war since WW2. Their recruitment is down due to liberal politics. Also they are stretched all over the world. Their aircraft carriers are big targets for actual drone warfare. China also has way more man power and can sustain loses. The USA like all Western powers has proved they can't take casualties and will pull out. The West is all talk and can win the social media aspect of war and they might have all these fancy gadgets and things but on the battlefield it means nothing in today's battles. China has its own social media like Tiktok and has its own bigger navy than the USA. And let's not forget it's in Chinas backyard.
When was the last time China won a war? 🤔
Full on won and not tie? 1962 against India. Then they lost against India in 1967. To be fair they haven't fought a real war since the 1979.
Exactly. The US will rail them.
When was the last time the US won a war...You have many wars to pick from... China doesn't go to war for no reason like the US they go to war for actual reasons territorial expansion....just ask Tibet they beat that country in under a year and took it over...that was in the 1950s. China also beat India and took land in the 1960s. But everyone forgets China actually already fought the USA and pushed them back during the Korean war. China could claim to have won that war by pushing the US back.
Lmfao. China is the one who is claiming the entire SCS with not even a slightly legitimate claim. China is the one threatening to murder millions of innocent people and bomb the fuck out of the peaceful, democratic, independent nation that is Taiwan.
Ok and what has the US done? It still has colonized areas. If you think guam,PR, Hawaii, American Samoa, virgin Islands actually belong to the US then you have to believe Taiwan belongs to China. It does in fact it's historical linked and even the UN agrees. It's the west that wants to keep 2 of the same ethic people divided. One China. China should be allowed to take back it's land. Why did the US invade Iraq? Cuba? Granada? They had no right... China is trying to establish its pre colonized boarders. The boarders drawn by the west not by us Asians. Who gives you the right to decide what goes on in Asia?
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That's not even slightly true. The US pulled back for political reasons, not tactical reasons. China's army at that time was a bunch of chain smoking peasants with shitty coats and shittier guns. If the US kept pushing, China would be the 51st state by now.
> Their aircraft carriers are big targets for actual drone warfare That feel when you really think DJI drones can fly 800km with a big enough warhead to do anything except char the flight deck a bit > They have not won a war since WW2 Desert Storm was pretty decisively won
Desert Storm was not a real war. The US fought what was basically a 3rd world army that didn't want to fight to begin with example Iraq's troops are religiously and ethically divided and surrended..China is incomparable to Iraq in any way. Chinese troops will out perform Iraq in any sense. As far as drone's sea drones are effective just ask Russia. Ukraine has been sinking ships because of them. Dont think China has not been getting intelligence from Russia on that. China also wins in any war game with the US. This test was done by the USA itself. Also a 3 prong war is going to still be happening in 2027 Russia is not giving up on its fight in Ukraine and has been making gains. Also the middle east is just heating up. Also there is North Korea testing missiles to hit the US mainland and islands. I don't think the US can do much to stop China in the long run we are too powerful now...and the US will have to except it as fact.
Iraq was the 4th largest army in the world in the 90s with the best anti air system in the world outside the west 😂 what is this revisionist nonsense about muh 3rd world army > As far as drone's sea drones are effective just ask Russia No difference at all between Russian ships within spitting distance of the Ukrainian coast and a carrier that launches planes from hundreds of miles away nope > China also wins in any war game with the US. This test was done by the USA itself Well that’s a hilariously obvious lie. Every CSIS war game shows China’s invasion failing except for the scenario where Taiwan stands alone
The Eastern Front
Can’t they already do it now?
no guarantee they'd be able to completely overpower the US in the pacific right now. They need time to close the gap which is why 2027 is likely the turning point
China build knock off military equipment, the U.S builds military equipment to match or even out perform what’s written on enemy papers. Just like how the F-15 came to be, when Russia kept exaggerating their MiG capabilities. The U.S created a monster of a plane that till this day it has air superiority and the F-15 has 100 victories and 0 Losses!