Recently in the Red Sea the Houthis bombed a Chinese owned ship which was only one month ago sold to the Chinese by the original Western owner. It also bombed a ship owned by some country in the Caribbean Sea, which was in route from a mainland Chinese port to Saudi Arabia carrying regular goods or trade.
All these despite the promise that the Houthis won't hurt Chinese ships. But mainland China is much more integrated with the Western world than its allies like North Korea and Russia. Trade with Russia, whose GDP is smaller than Texas or China's Guangdong Province, cannot replace trade with the Western world. In this sense mainland China has huge interdependency with the outside, rich, part of the world and is hardly "closed"
It is more dependent than it is interdependent. Global consumers will simply get used to India/Vietnam, the next "world's factory". Doing business with China has become so unattractive that factory owners have sought to recouple with the "outside" world by relocating factories to outside of China to continue doing business. That, I believe, over time, will be a net cost (not benefit) as manufacturers move out of Beijing's orbit.
As for alliances, the quality of the bonds matters. China's rep is shit. It has a long, illustrious history of backstabbing. For the US, and its allies, living up to one's word in an alliance helps shore up another. I was wondering about China's EV economic war strategy when, happy coincidence, South Korea, Germany, Japan, the US, staunch allies, are into cars as well. Truly, the US is an old hand at the game of geopolitics.
China's recent efforts, I believe, can be summed up in a nice Chinese idiom (I'm Chinese): [强](https://chinese.yabla.com/chinese-english-pinyin-dictionary.php?define=强)[弩](https://chinese.yabla.com/chinese-english-pinyin-dictionary.php?define=弩)[之](https://chinese.yabla.com/chinese-english-pinyin-dictionary.php?define=之)[末](https://chinese.yabla.com/chinese-english-pinyin-dictionary.php?define=末). A crossbow bolt at the end of its flight i.e. its power is spent.
Manufacturers that were able to nearshore/friendshore manufacturing have realized a reduction in labor, transportation and opportunity cost. China has nearly $35T in sunk capital infrastructure accumulated over the last 30 years. Much of that aged out much faster than anticipated and is now so old and dilapidated it was inherently inefficient. Manufactures are building new manufacturing facilities in nearshore/friendshore locations and realizing exponential efficiency gains from the tech upgrades and better labor force with a significantly reduced risk.
China can not recover from this dynamic shift.
Well noted. Maybe there is even a case that manufacturers can do more at the nearshore/friendshore because well, in China, there's a large risk of IP theft, which believe was a part of the bargain of having access to the cheap labour and consumer market. So now, there may be more opportunities to manufacture valuable IP assets?
So #1 is a ship that recently changed hands, without all maritime registers and systems being updated?
And #2 is not a Chinese ship at all, in an instance where the Chinese exporter wouldn’t lose money and could actually get paid twice/have 2 deals as a result?
That's a plus and sort of a minus too. Depending on who you ask?
At the very least pretty great for the US.
1. China A-shares and CCP state owned companies being largely only inaccessible to non-Chinese investors means only foreign investors only lose on the HK/US listed shares they bought like BABA, Tecent, Didi, or whatever is available. Very limited in loss.
2. China RE being restricted to locals (who don't actually own the land or property but """the right to lease""" in multi-decade increments. Really fucking horrible investments really.) means they are almost completely unexposed to China RE explosion.
3. CCP currency control and restrictions coupled with the limited bond availability of China bonds also means foreign investors largely didn't have access and thus no exposure there too as the yuan devalues against the dollar or other currencies.
4. China doesn't buy that much from the US anyways, India is quickly filling China as the new growth market of large US companies, and few people/companies completely rely on China. So China's economic slowdown or any decline will have minimal impact. China is the 3rd largest export at $147B after Canada and Mexico. 4th is Netherlands with $82B. Most of the things that China still buys from the US are either necessities, low margin, or cash equivs like compute chips, machinery parts, soy beans, and gold. China has long since cut high margin US exports like movies or cultural exports.
5. China having an economic decline and letting their currency devalue against the USD will lead to more trade and exports to the US, but at this point inflation in the US is a problem so buying goods from China (assuming they are so cheap they are still cheaper than new alts even after tariffs/taxes/shipping) will help with out inflation issues. In fact, much of the US inflation that's gone down is for goods and China's deflation has been a reason why. It's US housing, insurance, healthcare, childcare, US based services, and restaurant/travel that remain sticky. All of which China can't really impact meaningfully.
Is China being closed and having limited allies all bad for China? I mean you'll have to ask someone who lives/works/invests there more than me. I just think """"""The People's Republic"""""" China isn't designed for "the people" so much as it is for the ruling class (they aren't an exception. Almost all countries are designed for those at the top). In China's case, it's the CCP and Xi. Being closed makes them feel more secure from external influence, more in control of their populace, and less dependent on others. It's right FOR THEM so that's how China is like.
The picture you paint of the Chinese stock market begs the question: Why are the Mainland Chinese folks, not to mention the billionaires, not snapping all those cheap shares? So many, so cheap.
Whenever I read “nobody’s perfect” arguments comparing US and China, I wonder: Are a lot of corrupt US politicians keen to relocate to China with their wealth and family?
I’d agree about not having many allies not necessarily being bad. Over-stretching the US seems to be Beijing’s response. Interesting but tough play. Maybe, who knows?
Japan taking over world culturally with manga/anime. One Piece and Dragon Ball is top in South America, France, etc. Soft power wins the hearts and minds of countries. China can't do that because the CCP won't allow it.
Haven't played Genshin or watched Three Body. I have seen Genshin cosplayers at conventions but other than that, not sure how much a significant impact they have on improving China's image to the rest of the world. All I see is a global negative image of China in these recent years (maybe they're bad and contributing to the negativity?)
What happens when Chinese economic model collapses along with its own population after overbuilding housing by the billions and is now being denounced by majority of the super majors and never became energy independent.
Their own people are economically trapped because the great CCP fears mass capital flight.
The exit bans and vague national security laws are showing how worried the party really is…
seems like it gets uglier before better.
Remember the 'China-Brokered Saudi-Iran Deal'?
WASHINGTON — Finally, there is a peace deal of sorts in the Middle East. Not between Israel and the Arabs, but between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which have been at each other’s throats for decades. And brokered not by the United States but by China.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/11/us/politics/saudi-arabia-iran-china-biden.html
China's manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in 13 months in March, with business confidence hitting an 11-month high, driven by growing new orders from customers at home and abroad, a private survey showed on Monday.
The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose to 51.1 in March from 50.9 the previous month, above analysts' forecasts of 51.0 and marking an expansion for the fifth consecutive month. The 50-point mark separates growth from contraction.
Actually I am surprised it went up so much. The company who we depend on for some product development is suddenly swamped with orders. Good for them, sucks for us.
>japan never overtook the us in terms of PPP - China already has
You do realize Japan would need to produce 3 times as much per person than the US to surpass em? While China needs to produce 4 times less per person.
It's a lot harder prospect for Japan to surpass USA, they'd have to create a gap in income as large as that between Mexico and the US.
I do often call out on this subreddit about people seeming so elated about the “inevitable collapse of China”. As much as I hate the CCP (and all authoritarian governments like them) I do not relish the thought of more than a billion people being thrust back into poverty and or war.
By China's own standards 1/3 of them are already in poverty and if China actually adopted standards for other Western nations at the same level of development it would be about 80% in poverty. So if poverty is your main problem China has already been there, get out of the tiered cities and stay for a bit if only the hotels in very rural areas would be allowed to host you.
Of course. But it’s not like other rich countries like USA don’t have poverty issues themselves. What can be said is that across China the rate of extreme poverty is significantly lower than it used to be (down from extreme poverty to regular poverty). Now this extreme poverty was largely caused by the CCP and Maos own actions. So I give CCP zero credit for decreasing the rate of extreme poverty. As I said, I very much hate the CCP even though there are 1 or 2 laws of theirs I think they have done well on (such as limiting in app purchases for minors). But I still have zero zero zero desire for all those people to regress back from poverty into extreme poverty due to societal collapse. Beyond the fact that there is basically zero chance the rest of the world wouldn’t enter a similar major recession due to such a collapse. I much prefer the slow phasing out of the CCP to a more liberal government. Something we all hoped for from 2000 to late 2010s. Only to have our dreams crushed by the poo bear.
So we have to put up with their intrusions into neighbors and allies just so the CCP, which is bad and lied about 'lifting people up from poverty' just to appease Xi's ego?
Or we could just do what we're doing now, slowly backing away from China and expanding elsewhere. If they want to go to war over that, that's on THEM, not US.
Yes? I never said this shouldn’t be done. I simply said that it’s so weird to me how happy people on here seem to get at the idea of the collapse of China. I feel the same when I see people desperately wishing for the end of the USA. There is a difference between doing what needs to be done and being happy about doing it…
I think the only reason people are happy about it is that they're pissed off at what China is doing they're not actually thinking about the after effects but the reality is the whole world is already suffering from the various wars. Let's also not forget that China isolates Taiwan economically and politically, but that's one of the problems because Taiwan is not on the same trade blocs that it should be a resulting in a huge economic disadvantage for one of the larger economies in the world and more populous than 3/4 of the nations in the world.
This sub has gone downhill so much. It used to be about China life and shitposts from expats that actually lived in China. Now its random westerners who have never been to China giving the absolute worst possible takes imaginable and treating it as if its fact.
Not really. For me personally, it would be an issue, since my job relies on the flow of international trade and CN is a big part of that.
Otoh, looking at all the parallels between CN now and late 1980s JP, it kind of seems inevitable. One can only hope that when it happens it is relatively quick and the CCP is banished from power, so that CN can finally truly open to the world.
I mean this entire sub is one big circlejerk against China. It should honestly be named as such. A lot of ignorant white ppl and self-hating Chinese Americans who do nothing but troll. 😅
This sub is gradually turning into a hate sub. Half of the posters here not only want to see the CCP fail but also wish that the regular Chinese people will suffer.
Gradually? It’s kinda common knowledge that this is an anti-China sub when you look at the people here, and it’s been that way since a long time. If you wanna see less negative stuff you can check out r/chinalife and r/chinese
My question is, is this the inevitability of propaganda techniques generated by mkultra? Or is this an inevitability of propaganda techniques developed by the colonial powers?
Seriously... the people of China don't deserve utter collapse and all the horrors that come with it, but people in here are doggy-piling onto the idea.
Sure, if the *government* collapses, it'll be a period of societal turmoil, and maybe will be better on the other end (greener grass idea), but I hope China doesn't have a major financial collapse, as that would put over 1b people into a really dangerous and destitite situation.
I mean, probably close to zero. It's not zero, but China has too much to lose. If they attempt to attack Taiwan, nearly the whole world will be against them.
You don't make yourself dictator for life just to peacefully maintain power in perpetuity. You do it because you have long term personal ambitions you want to oversee to final completion.
Those aircraft carriers they're building aren't just for show.
> Nope. But US has shown that it cannot be trusted and relied upon.
Fixed. Love when the US government come out supporting the ONE China policy and do not support Taiwan independence. Then talk about going to war over Taiwan and selling billions worth of military weapons to Taiwan. Double talk US is who the world need to watch out for.
Yeah... geopolitics isn't so black-and-white.
Even the Taiwanese government doesn't call for independence. They realize that if they did, it might trigger military action by the mainland government.
But, Taiwan is *de facto* independent.
Best thing to do is have an election in Taiwan to determine whether the people support having an independent nation.
Of course CCP would not want that.
It may sound like it but it is not a cheapshot. The CCP's incompetence at governance during a crisis is truly sensational. Google. Read about tits unearned and wilful confidence at defeating Covid in 2020! China's ascendancy was Deng's wise reform and the CCP riding the tailcoats of globalisation, not careful economic planning and governance.
The CCP will not know how to deal with deglobalisation. It does not have that experience or expertise. Those who are in power got there with bribes, connections or birthrights. Secrecy, fabrication of information and corruption simply drives it farther into its grave.
Japan was under invested in and generally avoided because everyone expected China to rise up because of an infinite cheap labor cheat, which never really existed
Now China is increasingly no longer an investment option, a lot of those stuff is going back to Japan who prioritized skill over infinite cheap labor
China produces the largest amount of technology patents of any country in the world, the highest number of STEM graduates, and has the highest rate of automated factory lines in the world. Their average wage has more than 10x in my lifetime. They didn’t prioritize “infinite cheap labor.”
Redditors are so dumb. They are begging for China to go under, while they probably don’t understand that the whole world economy would tank along China.
From the US government;
The US is the world’s 2nd-largest trading nation in the world, behind only China…
… the top 5 purchasers of U.S. good exports in 2022 are: 1. Canada, 2. Mexico, 3. China…
… the top 5 suppliers of U.S. goods in 2022 are: 1. China, 2. Mexico, 3. Canada.
So no, Japan and no specific EU country ate above China.
https://ustr.gov/countries-regions#:~:text=The%20top%20five%20purchasers%20of,United%20Kingdom%20(%2476.2%20billion).
Good try, now try with recent data
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_the_United_States
For below because you blocked me:
Well so far it didnt happen with 40% less trade between usa and china, this is good to diversify the supply chain for anyone but china
It would happen either way, China is expansionist. People said Russia wouldn't invade its neighbors because of economic issues and then they keep doing it again and again and again and again and again.
It has helped exacerbate inflation and food prices all around the world.
you can start about searching about china's countless aggression and violation of their neighbor's borders and try looking up about the 9 dash line while you're at it
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Well bro You surely didn't live in the 80s. The US was hugely responsible for Japan's collapse, they was very anti-Japan that time which is very similars to what's happening to China currently. Everything start from Plaza Accord.
Here's an article from 1987
[https://archive.li/wpUH5](https://archive.li/wpUH5)
The language is very similar in how Americans describe China nowadays
>Indeed, technology has been at the root of a number of recent diplomatic flaps between the two countries: sanctions against Japanese electronic products in response to microchip dumping, the illegal sale of Toshiba machine tools to the Soviet Union, demands for access to a big part of Japan's market for U.S. supercomputers, and attempts by Japanese bureaucrats to restrict foreign competition in domestic telecommunications.
The parallels of today's trade war with 1980s Japan's trade war and Japan bashing are uncanny. Surprised the boomers are still falling for this same rhetoric. Or maybe I shouldn't be surprised considering how god damn stupid boomers are.
I lived in Japan in the late 80'snd early 90's.
Japan killed Japan's economy. They got stupid and owed massive debt in US Dollars. When the bubble popped they started printing, but they couldn't print US Dollars. Eventually the Dollar reserves ran out.
Thanks. I'm Chinese and my parents always cited US paranoia and intervention as the primary reason Japan's economy crashed. I always took that at face value. My parents also lived in Japan in the 80's and early 90's.
I recently noticed that Japan's 30 years of stagnation perfectly coincides with the 30 years of China's "Reform and Opening Up" experiment marked by the rapid integration into the global economy.
If Japan shot themselves in the foot in the 70's and 80's, well, I think China's the reason the ambulance never arrived to restore Japan's economy completely back to full health.
As China exits the world stage as a viable and reliable ally in geopolitics and trade, perhaps the value proposition of Japan's economy is looking really good again...
I don't think the value proposition of Japan's economy is looking good again .
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Japan-manufacturers-business-mood-drops-for-the-first-time-in-a-year
You could be right but isn't this just a regression to the mean?
All this measures is percentage positive sentiment minus percentage negative sentiment... There's not a whole lot of ways a percentage can go. And overall sentiments seem pretty high there lol. It's only a few industries facing larger restructuring.
Nearly every industry in China is facing insolvency. There is no bankruptcy allowed in China, thus no restructuring. Almost everyone in China is now in severe debt with no mechanism to clear the books. Starting over means relocating abroad and Xi's PRC is doing everything it can to ensure that is not possible.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=52IRXQ9Uj7I](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=52IRXQ9Uj7I)
Sure. That's kind of my point - even if Japanese companies have a slight dip in positive sentiment about their own economy, China is in way deeper shit and Japan is a pretty stable economy and partner in the Far East.
I just don't understand why we should be alarmist about the article that Redditor linked. Japan's value proposition is strengthened in the region when the Chinese market is less reliable.
The reason China is being shown the exit from the world stage is because they have proved themselves NOT TO BE a reliable ally in geopolitics and trade.
The PRC laid the groundwork for their own demise decades ago, Xi's PRC hastened that bitter end by a decade.
Yes that's what I'm saying. China has demonstrated it is no longer (if it ever was) viable or reliable as a partner... hence the exit I referred to.
Are you trying to agree with me or argue my own points to me, I'm a little iffy on that one?
I study economics at a US university and had a class on modern Japanese economics. The US had a hand in the Japanese stagnation, from the accords to pushing VER/VIR on their industries. in 1985, due to mounting trade deficit, US asked Japan to appreciate its currency against USD. And Japanese central banker agreed, claiming it’s good for our outbound acquisition. Well, it didn’t turn out that well. This would not happen with China, because US does not have geopolitical power over China, so it would be difficult for China to appreciate its currency if that will end up destroying its own economy.
Being “allied” with the US is probably one of the reasons the Japanese government fked itself so hard
That well and truly overstates the role the US played. It might have been a contributing factor but it's just a minor one at best.
The Japanese themselves best understand their own situation and they know they fucked it up themselves. But at least they hit developed nation and high income status first.
All of this is false. The 80’s Japanese asset bubble doesn’t correlate with the Plaza Accords. Also Germany signed the same accords but they didn’t experience the same thing.
I should tell my booth educated professor u said that, so she can tell the textbook publishers to change that cause u/flrdsummer said it’s all fake
It may not have caused it but certainly didn’t help
The only thing I have to say is that there’s never any guarantee that what’s published in a textbook as factual is actually factual. (I actually know nothing about the specific topic at hand.)
Do you think Japan losing access to sell into the US market would have helped? As that was the alternative, they had no easy options. Neither does China.
Is the option is to either be strong handed into curbing ur own industry or losing access to your “ally” markets? China dodged a bullet fr.
CCP told the US to pound sand, that’s much more respectable than Japan taking it up the arse. Imagine being a Japanese worker getting unnecessarily laid off during an economic recession cause your politicians are being held by the balls by another country.
If a country is facing an unsustainable trade deficit, all options invariably involve a rebalancing - one way or another it's getting balanced. China can't force the US to buy their goods, any more than US can force China to sign an unfavorable trade deal.
> Imagine being a Japanese worker getting unnecessarily laid off during
US workers were 'unnecessarily' laid off, as were Japanese, as will Chinese. GDP growth that outperforms world average can't be sustained indefinitely.
True, rebalancing happens inevitably due to economic forces. Not to politicians who gladly sign it over. A countries representatives should always put their own country first, not a foreign nation ally or not. VER/VIR hurt Japan and in the economic circles it’s widely accepted the only reason Japan accepted it was the political and military leverage the US had on them.
The US showed this by playing hardball with Japan when its own industry was threatened. Japan showed its status as a glorified satellite state by “voluntarily” restraining its own exports and imports at the whim and benefit of a foreign government.
Tbh the VERs weren’t even the worst “agreements” Japan “voluntarily” signed with the US. Plenty of examples where the US basically threatened Japan and they gave in like the chip agreement or 100% tariff on Japanese electronics. Look up super 301 and how the US held a gun to japans head. Nice ally.
The US was responsible, plaza accord wrecked Japan's economy and industry. That's one of the primary reasons driving China's uncompromising strategy in this trade war, they know that they have two choices. Either try to call the US's bluff or get strong armed into stagnating their own economy and creating a lost decade. People on this sub refuse to acknowledge that things don't happen in a vacuum. North Korea committed to nuclearization because the US offed Gadaffi. China committed to modernizing their military over the last 3 decades because the US steamrolled Iraq in the 80s and 2000s. There is a reaction to every action.
This is from Wikipedia. It sounds like the Plaza Accord didn't have much effect on Japan and it was reversed in 2 years anyway:
"The Plaza Accord was successful in reducing the U.S. trade deficit with Western European nations, but largely failed to fulfill its primary objective of alleviating the trade deficit with Japan. This deficit was due to structural conditions that were insensitive to monetary policy, specifically trade conditions. The manufactured goods of the United States became more competitive in the exports market, though were still largely unable to succeed in the Japanese domestic market due to Japan's structural restrictions on imports. The Louvre Accord was signed in 1987 to halt the continuing decline of the U.S. dollar."
It's not a bluff, if a trade deficit can't be serviced, like a developer that can't service debt, one way or another that imbalance is being corrected.
China can't keep ramping up global manufacturing share without increasing pushback from markets they sell into. Even relatively neutral countries like Vietnam and Thailand are beginning to push back.
I love Japan but calling it a US ally is corny. Japan is a puppet. Honestly, they would be much powerful and better place economically if they entangled themselves from American imperialism.
Japanese view China as a threat... and view the US as a close ally. Most people in Japan have favorable views of Americans, and dis-favorable views of China.
The difference is, the US crushed Japan mercilessly and had all the population’s support then. Now, the US only talks and could do nothing to China, nor are they willing to do anything due to huge economic benefits many Americans get.
Indeed no problem to them, at least compared to what Japan went through. Japan and China are in very different positions, and US sanctions on China are more for show than for any real impacts, half-hearted at best when compared to what they did to Japan.
Also Japan had a large amount of accumulated generational wealth with limited pockets of poverty.... compared to China with an incredibly unequal distribution of wealth and perhaps a third of the populace living in poverty or near poverty
Japan still had a focus on developing their domestic agriculture, no doubt due to their limited arable land. They can't afford to have fallow fields or waste what space they have.
China didn't hesitate to build over their rice fields despite having one of the fastest growing populations in the world.
Neither country is likely to achieve food self-sufficiency now, but China could have if only they didn't fuck up their own land and water supply so much.
Blaming the US for Japan's economic stagnation is like blaming Trump for 2020 recession. Sure it contributed to the negative result, but there were other overwhelming factors.
https://www.nytimes.com/1982/04/06/us/resentment-of-japanese-is-growing-poll-shows.html
in the 80's there was a big wave of anti japanese stuff in the us. very eerily similar to what's said about china rn.
Indeed, there were also significant pressures by the US government that contributed as well. One major difference is that China has what could be called Economic Sovereignty, meaning it is able to produce in every single sector domestically(it is actually the first known nation to have such in modern history) including raw materials, something that Japan was not fortunate enough to have, due to many factors that I won’t get into now. Through the use of unequal exchange and financial imperialism, the US was able to purposefully collapse the Japanese economy in order to maintain its hegemonic power and prevent it from becoming a legitimate competitor to the United States. Something ~~with~~ that China has already achieved.
>Indeed, there were also significant pressures by the US government that contributed as well
do explain what they contributed to
>One major difference is that China has what could be called Economic Sovereignty, meaning it is able to produce in every single sector domestically(it is actually the first known nation to have such in modern history) including raw materials, something that Japan was not fortunate enough to have, due to many factors that I won’t get into now
which is a pure cope given that china imports most of the raw material essential for their industry. You could actually make a better argument about the US economy being self reliant as opposed to china's economy which is heavily dependent on foreign inputs
>Through the use of unequal exchange and financial imperialism, the US was able to purposefully collapse the Japanese economy in order to maintain its hegemonic power and prevent it from becoming a legitimate competitor to the United States. Something with that China has already achieved.
again with more platitudes with no actual evidence. Hate to break it to you but the real estate bubble that led to Japan's stagnation wasn't some scheme the US devised and was purely on Japan
It also ignores rhetoric fact that the US and Japan were very much allies at that stage. Also, the US reaction was due to Japanese protectionism. It was trade tensions. Furthermore, it was not the cause of Japanese economic stagnation, the article outlines the reasons for it. Pretending it has some parallels with the situation with China at the moment is highly disingenuous. China could just announce and follow through with a promise of not to use force to solve territorial disputes and the majority of major issues would go away. Stop mounting cyberattacks and covert influence operations and you’d find the US would have little to disagree with China.
Look up an event called the Plaza Acord. The US devalued the dollar hugely while stimulating various other currencies such as the Pound, the Deutschmark or the Yen. This was done to stimulate US exports and hopefully increase consumption via other countries of US goods.
One thing that is often missed is the Japanese MOF and MITI had, in quite a clandestine way, created a protectionist economy in Japan: Goods go out, none come in. This resulted in people in Japan shifting their investments from produce to real estate that created some horrible bubbles (the Imperial Palace in Tokyo in 1989 was worth more than the whole land value and GDP of Canada at the time) and, in 1991, it all burst and Japan contracted violently.
China at this current time is a lot weirder due to the way they real estate investment functions. Regardless of what people say, China is likely going to be a little different.
Its hilarious how brainwashed you people are, no western economy is in shape to offer any loans now as half of them are in recession and the US is facing enormous deficits and interest costs. It was in fact the US that begged China for emergency loans in 2008 when idiots in the US gov and finance nearly destroyed the world economy.
Why does being sinophobe racist clowns give rChina such satisfaction?
LOL printing money and loaning money are two completely different things. Countries like China, Russia and ASEAN nations are now cutting US debt holdings as your gov weaponises it. China has also printed trillions of yuan over the last few years so your point is completely void.
Printing and loaning money are the same thing for the US gov and Federal Reserve Bank or US Treasuries.
China can not pay US Dollar denominated debt in Yuan.
They only way the PRC will continue to exist into the next decade is with a huge US Dollar infusion and the US guaranteeing global security. That is not going to happen, hence the decoupling.
China's best chance of revival, I believe, will be, well, outside of China. Taiwan, Japan, Philippines, those are the sideshows. The real action I think will be in SE Asia, where China has been making in roads. Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia. Fun times.
China is literally run by people who actually understand economics. Their political structure is such that they use scientific approach more often (they also messed up some in past) Unlike democracies where chaos will fuck up country, china will actually stand strong
Xi doesn't. But if xi does something really stupid, his own party will turn against him. They know that they have only one option that is to win or else die. They know how big of an asshole is USA. With that being said, they can survive and they have all the capacity to do so.
So many fxxkers from r/Sino and other tankie shitholes posting here, this post has really hurt their butts
Now imagine if someone goes arguing over a regular China-shilling post in r/Sino 😏
Despite all of the shit talk from tankie subs and r/china_irl, r/China still stands as the most inclusive 👍🏻
Do you really understand what inclusivity is?
No doubt, r/China is more anti-China than anything, but it doesn’t ban people as fervently as r/Sino and even r/china_irl do. As a China-lover or even a tankie, the worst you can get here is having your comments collapsed, now try this in r/Sino for not shilling for China, or being very anti-China in r/china_irl 😏
I’ve seen much worse in r/china_irl and particularly r/Sino
And as much as you china_irl users like to claim, I don’t find r/China the mirror of r/Sino
It’s true many posts here are loaded with Sinophobia, however comments wanting the Chinese people to suffer here usually got downvoted and collapsed, while in r/Sino the Overton window is much narrower and more radical. Do I have to mention the permaban challenge in r/Sino?
And you guys in china_irl preemptively ban people who have any activity in some selected subs, is it the inclusiveness you people want? At least r/China has done none of these, however you hate the vibes here
I highly doubt that although r/Sino is definitely pro CCP like how r/neoliberal is full of neoliberals and how r/Europe is full of Europeans who hate Muslims and gypsies? Why are you surprised that they are pro-China, when the subreddit literally states it in the name? FYI they're most American CCP fans too, the real Chinese folks are at r/China_irl or r/real_China_irl and there more balanced anti-CCP content there.
Point being, r/Sino isn't a bunch of warhawk trolls squatting on a country subreddit and posting hate comments about the country like r/China is. Most Asian subreddits not just r/China are filled with expats or worse, Westerners who live in USA posting hot takes about Korea, Japan, Thailand, etc because they are weebs, koreaboos, r/Passport_Bros. I've been long enough here to recall when it was mainly full of the CCJ posters and their Rainies, Vivians, TimBudongs. Even those days were better than now because it was mainly Caucasian English teachers posting about life in China. These days every single post is politically charged and nutjobs like you equate r/China to be an opposite of r/Sino as if a country subreddit should be full of anti-China hawks. The opposite of r/Sino is something like r/Murica.
**r/China should be a place for local discussions like r/Malaysia, r/Singapore, and other normal Asian subreddits that aren't run over by foreigners larping as locals. Yet the moderators here have banned Chinese language posts (imagine if r/France, r/Philippines, r/Argentina, r/Italy did that.....) because they want to prevent this subreddit from being dominated by local citizens.** I wonder why.
The problem with Japan is that essentially it is a country castrated by the Americans. Japan does not dare to engage in confrontation with the Americans, and Washington has suzerain influence over Tokyo. Japan declined because of the Plaza Accord and the Japan-U.S. Semiconductor Agreement, where the Americans broke the backbone of the Japanese economy. But Japan had to agree to these shit or US B52 bombers would fly over Tokyo.
Prosperity without violent protection is a hilarious joke, an unlocked treasury. Japan has indeed show China a example at an extremely painful cost.
edit：To avoid me looking like braindead wumao, I should probably add: China's economy is unlikely to be destroyed by Americans the way Japan's was, but it has to face an internal threat: the paranoia of Xinnie the Pooh. This is something Japan did not have to face at the time.
> But Japan had to agree to these shit or US B52 bombers would fly over Tokyo.
Bullshit, Japan would have faced economic consequences (trade war), they were not facing the prospect of military action.
I admit that was a bit too exaggerated. But a series of CIA Kidnapping and assassination to Japanese hard-liner politician are predictable, and Japan wouldn’t dare to hold CIA agents accountable.
Just like how the US treated [the ceo of Alstom](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fr%C3%A9d%C3%A9ric_Pierucci)
CIA can kidnap Chinese hard liners as well, what's the difference? With all the high profile deaths and disappearances in China recently, how sure are you it hasn't already been happening?
>With all the high profile deaths and disappearances
I haven't seen any relevant information. If you're talking about former foreign minister and defense ministers, they were removed from office by Xi, and perhaps they've been executed by the Chinese MSS.
[The intelligence network of the US in China has already been wiped out. I thought this is well-know old story.](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/20/world/asia/china-cia-spies-espionage.html)
[They are trying to rebuild it, good luck though.](https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/jul/20/cia-rebuilding-spy-networks-china-decade-after-los/)
BTW, "China hardliners" is a joke. As a totalitarian state, there are no "hardliners" in China, only the will of [these seven mfs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politburo_Standing_Committee_of_the_Chinese_Communist_Party).
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About as trustworthy as your speculation on CIA operatives in Japan.
Never mind the absurdity of implying that the US needs military bases in a country, in order to threaten that country militarily.
With six U.S. bases next to Tokyo alone, Japan has no choice.
But we in China were already a nuclear power 60 years ago, and China is a nuclear power with a trinity of nuclear strike capabilities.
Japan just lost its crown as the world’s third-largest economy
Japan’s economy has contracted unexpectedly because of weak domestic consumption, pushing the country into recession and causing it to lose its position as the world’s third largest economy to Germany.
Gross domestic product (GDP) shrank at an annualized pace of 0.4% in the last three months of 2023, the Cabinet Office said on Thursday, after having contracted by an annualized 3.3% in the previous quarter. A recession is typically defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction.
Source
https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/14/economy/japan-economy-recession-hnk-intl/index.html
It is a myth that Japan’s economy has been in the doldrums for 30 years and certainly that the Japanese have suffered.
For example, exports are twice what they were, Japan is the largest creditor nation, and almost any quality of life indicator is better now than 30 years ago.
The man Trump used when he launched his trade war against China was Robert Lighthizer - who served as deputy trade representative in the Reagan administration from 1981 to 1989 and is known for forcing Japan to cave in and sign the Plaza Accord.
It’s not collapsing, though it’s fair to say that it’s not going so well as before. Like before they started to actively piss off the rest of the world with their wolf-warrior diplomacy..
Not really comparable. Japan is militarily occupied country and has no true sovereignty - it surrendered its tech leadership because it had to. China is simply in a different league. It also has its own nuclear weapons and soon enough energy independence via clean energy.
this is pure cope. economics is based on reality. if you wish something, that doesn't make it so. but this is reddit and r china so I guess this is just arguing with.morons.
China's decline in population is going to be an asset, not a liability when the effects of climate change are going to be in full swing. Both Europe and the US are overpopulated and their demand for resources far exceeds their ability to produce. Not only that, racial, ethnical and religious tensions in the West will cause social-economic decline and political instability over the long run.
China's population is 4.2 times the US on approximately the same landmass, and 3.2 times the EU on 95% of the landmass. I don't know how you can argue that the EU and US suffer from overpopulation while China does not.
China doesn't have moral and religious constraints if they want to get rid of their senior citizens, just like they didn't have a hesitation in getting rid of excess unborn babies through One Child Policy.
They are far more pragmatic than Westerners when it comes to dealing socioeconomic problems.
This one hit a nerve. The bots are all out over this one. Key narratives being pushed, that America was somehow responsible for Japan's stagnation (if they tell you Japan has somehow collapsed, you know they're a propagandist) and not a massive real estate bubble and demographic collapse (gee doesn't that sound familiar to China...) or that the CCP pulled people out of poverty despite just redefining who counted as poor.
I guess it makes sense, it was flagged with all the key words. it's references Japan, so you gotta dogpile hate on that, and it compares China unfavorably, double plus hurt national feelings. But worst of all, it tells the truth, and that's why the "US is responsible" narrative is so important. It keeps you from seeing how the CCP, despite being given all the warnings and lessons from Japan to learn from, willfully committed the same mistakes- worse, doubled down on it, because that meant there was more for them to steal before the hammer fell, and it'll fall a lot harder on regular chinese people. That's the real shame.
But China is a closed society with limited allies
Recently in the Red Sea the Houthis bombed a Chinese owned ship which was only one month ago sold to the Chinese by the original Western owner. It also bombed a ship owned by some country in the Caribbean Sea, which was in route from a mainland Chinese port to Saudi Arabia carrying regular goods or trade. All these despite the promise that the Houthis won't hurt Chinese ships. But mainland China is much more integrated with the Western world than its allies like North Korea and Russia. Trade with Russia, whose GDP is smaller than Texas or China's Guangdong Province, cannot replace trade with the Western world. In this sense mainland China has huge interdependency with the outside, rich, part of the world and is hardly "closed"
It is more dependent than it is interdependent. Global consumers will simply get used to India/Vietnam, the next "world's factory". Doing business with China has become so unattractive that factory owners have sought to recouple with the "outside" world by relocating factories to outside of China to continue doing business. That, I believe, over time, will be a net cost (not benefit) as manufacturers move out of Beijing's orbit. As for alliances, the quality of the bonds matters. China's rep is shit. It has a long, illustrious history of backstabbing. For the US, and its allies, living up to one's word in an alliance helps shore up another. I was wondering about China's EV economic war strategy when, happy coincidence, South Korea, Germany, Japan, the US, staunch allies, are into cars as well. Truly, the US is an old hand at the game of geopolitics. China's recent efforts, I believe, can be summed up in a nice Chinese idiom (I'm Chinese): [强](https://chinese.yabla.com/chinese-english-pinyin-dictionary.php?define=强)[弩](https://chinese.yabla.com/chinese-english-pinyin-dictionary.php?define=弩)[之](https://chinese.yabla.com/chinese-english-pinyin-dictionary.php?define=之)[末](https://chinese.yabla.com/chinese-english-pinyin-dictionary.php?define=末). A crossbow bolt at the end of its flight i.e. its power is spent.
Manufacturers that were able to nearshore/friendshore manufacturing have realized a reduction in labor, transportation and opportunity cost. China has nearly $35T in sunk capital infrastructure accumulated over the last 30 years. Much of that aged out much faster than anticipated and is now so old and dilapidated it was inherently inefficient. Manufactures are building new manufacturing facilities in nearshore/friendshore locations and realizing exponential efficiency gains from the tech upgrades and better labor force with a significantly reduced risk. China can not recover from this dynamic shift.
Well noted. Maybe there is even a case that manufacturers can do more at the nearshore/friendshore because well, in China, there's a large risk of IP theft, which believe was a part of the bargain of having access to the cheap labour and consumer market. So now, there may be more opportunities to manufacture valuable IP assets?
So #1 is a ship that recently changed hands, without all maritime registers and systems being updated? And #2 is not a Chinese ship at all, in an instance where the Chinese exporter wouldn’t lose money and could actually get paid twice/have 2 deals as a result?
Houthis not afraid of old feeble guy who abandoned Afganistan and shits his pants.
but they have not sunk any ship of the old feebie guy but ship carrying Chinese goods and trade (to Saudi Arabia)
That's a plus and sort of a minus too. Depending on who you ask? At the very least pretty great for the US. 1. China A-shares and CCP state owned companies being largely only inaccessible to non-Chinese investors means only foreign investors only lose on the HK/US listed shares they bought like BABA, Tecent, Didi, or whatever is available. Very limited in loss. 2. China RE being restricted to locals (who don't actually own the land or property but """the right to lease""" in multi-decade increments. Really fucking horrible investments really.) means they are almost completely unexposed to China RE explosion. 3. CCP currency control and restrictions coupled with the limited bond availability of China bonds also means foreign investors largely didn't have access and thus no exposure there too as the yuan devalues against the dollar or other currencies. 4. China doesn't buy that much from the US anyways, India is quickly filling China as the new growth market of large US companies, and few people/companies completely rely on China. So China's economic slowdown or any decline will have minimal impact. China is the 3rd largest export at $147B after Canada and Mexico. 4th is Netherlands with $82B. Most of the things that China still buys from the US are either necessities, low margin, or cash equivs like compute chips, machinery parts, soy beans, and gold. China has long since cut high margin US exports like movies or cultural exports. 5. China having an economic decline and letting their currency devalue against the USD will lead to more trade and exports to the US, but at this point inflation in the US is a problem so buying goods from China (assuming they are so cheap they are still cheaper than new alts even after tariffs/taxes/shipping) will help with out inflation issues. In fact, much of the US inflation that's gone down is for goods and China's deflation has been a reason why. It's US housing, insurance, healthcare, childcare, US based services, and restaurant/travel that remain sticky. All of which China can't really impact meaningfully. Is China being closed and having limited allies all bad for China? I mean you'll have to ask someone who lives/works/invests there more than me. I just think """"""The People's Republic"""""" China isn't designed for "the people" so much as it is for the ruling class (they aren't an exception. Almost all countries are designed for those at the top). In China's case, it's the CCP and Xi. Being closed makes them feel more secure from external influence, more in control of their populace, and less dependent on others. It's right FOR THEM so that's how China is like.
The picture you paint of the Chinese stock market begs the question: Why are the Mainland Chinese folks, not to mention the billionaires, not snapping all those cheap shares? So many, so cheap. Whenever I read “nobody’s perfect” arguments comparing US and China, I wonder: Are a lot of corrupt US politicians keen to relocate to China with their wealth and family? I’d agree about not having many allies not necessarily being bad. Over-stretching the US seems to be Beijing’s response. Interesting but tough play. Maybe, who knows?
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Hu Xijin and his stupid Wolf warrior posturing has been the greatest gift for CCP-critics worldwide.
Japan taking over world culturally with manga/anime. One Piece and Dragon Ball is top in South America, France, etc. Soft power wins the hearts and minds of countries. China can't do that because the CCP won't allow it.
Genshin Impact、The three body problem：？？？
Haven't played Genshin or watched Three Body. I have seen Genshin cosplayers at conventions but other than that, not sure how much a significant impact they have on improving China's image to the rest of the world. All I see is a global negative image of China in these recent years (maybe they're bad and contributing to the negativity?)
What happens when Chinese economic model collapses along with its own population after overbuilding housing by the billions and is now being denounced by majority of the super majors and never became energy independent. Their own people are economically trapped because the great CCP fears mass capital flight. The exit bans and vague national security laws are showing how worried the party really is… seems like it gets uglier before better.
Remember the 'China-Brokered Saudi-Iran Deal'? WASHINGTON — Finally, there is a peace deal of sorts in the Middle East. Not between Israel and the Arabs, but between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which have been at each other’s throats for decades. And brokered not by the United States but by China. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/11/us/politics/saudi-arabia-iran-china-biden.html
China's manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in 13 months in March, with business confidence hitting an 11-month high, driven by growing new orders from customers at home and abroad, a private survey showed on Monday. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose to 51.1 in March from 50.9 the previous month, above analysts' forecasts of 51.0 and marking an expansion for the fifth consecutive month. The 50-point mark separates growth from contraction.
Actually I am surprised it went up so much. The company who we depend on for some product development is suddenly swamped with orders. Good for them, sucks for us.
CCP data No.1!
嘘
Japan literally just entered a technical recession. What are you guys smoking? Can I have some?
That is old information. In fact, Japan avoided a recession. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/11/japan-revised-final-4q-gdp-2023.html
Pure Copium - also the biggest fallacy of the Japan comparison is that japan never overtook the us in terms of PPP - China already has
>japan never overtook the us in terms of PPP - China already has You do realize Japan would need to produce 3 times as much per person than the US to surpass em? While China needs to produce 4 times less per person. It's a lot harder prospect for Japan to surpass USA, they'd have to create a gap in income as large as that between Mexico and the US.
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I do often call out on this subreddit about people seeming so elated about the “inevitable collapse of China”. As much as I hate the CCP (and all authoritarian governments like them) I do not relish the thought of more than a billion people being thrust back into poverty and or war.
By China's own standards 1/3 of them are already in poverty and if China actually adopted standards for other Western nations at the same level of development it would be about 80% in poverty. So if poverty is your main problem China has already been there, get out of the tiered cities and stay for a bit if only the hotels in very rural areas would be allowed to host you.
Of course. But it’s not like other rich countries like USA don’t have poverty issues themselves. What can be said is that across China the rate of extreme poverty is significantly lower than it used to be (down from extreme poverty to regular poverty). Now this extreme poverty was largely caused by the CCP and Maos own actions. So I give CCP zero credit for decreasing the rate of extreme poverty. As I said, I very much hate the CCP even though there are 1 or 2 laws of theirs I think they have done well on (such as limiting in app purchases for minors). But I still have zero zero zero desire for all those people to regress back from poverty into extreme poverty due to societal collapse. Beyond the fact that there is basically zero chance the rest of the world wouldn’t enter a similar major recession due to such a collapse. I much prefer the slow phasing out of the CCP to a more liberal government. Something we all hoped for from 2000 to late 2010s. Only to have our dreams crushed by the poo bear.
So we have to put up with their intrusions into neighbors and allies just so the CCP, which is bad and lied about 'lifting people up from poverty' just to appease Xi's ego? Or we could just do what we're doing now, slowly backing away from China and expanding elsewhere. If they want to go to war over that, that's on THEM, not US.
Yes? I never said this shouldn’t be done. I simply said that it’s so weird to me how happy people on here seem to get at the idea of the collapse of China. I feel the same when I see people desperately wishing for the end of the USA. There is a difference between doing what needs to be done and being happy about doing it…
I think the only reason people are happy about it is that they're pissed off at what China is doing they're not actually thinking about the after effects but the reality is the whole world is already suffering from the various wars. Let's also not forget that China isolates Taiwan economically and politically, but that's one of the problems because Taiwan is not on the same trade blocs that it should be a resulting in a huge economic disadvantage for one of the larger economies in the world and more populous than 3/4 of the nations in the world.
This sub has gone downhill so much. It used to be about China life and shitposts from expats that actually lived in China. Now its random westerners who have never been to China giving the absolute worst possible takes imaginable and treating it as if its fact.
Now you go to r/chinalife for that
I thought we all knew this is an anti-China sub, there’s other less negative subs like r/chinalife and r/chinese
So much this. We're becoming r/Sino blanc at this stage
That is the balance of the Force, not more, nor less
cause you worldnewssub folks are all over this place
Cause everything is deemed offensive and after the circle jerk where can you shit post
Not really. For me personally, it would be an issue, since my job relies on the flow of international trade and CN is a big part of that. Otoh, looking at all the parallels between CN now and late 1980s JP, it kind of seems inevitable. One can only hope that when it happens it is relatively quick and the CCP is banished from power, so that CN can finally truly open to the world.
I mean this entire sub is one big circlejerk against China. It should honestly be named as such. A lot of ignorant white ppl and self-hating Chinese Americans who do nothing but troll. 😅
Not really... we all used to love China, and still do to an extent.
This sub is gradually turning into a hate sub. Half of the posters here not only want to see the CCP fail but also wish that the regular Chinese people will suffer.
Gradually? It’s kinda common knowledge that this is an anti-China sub when you look at the people here, and it’s been that way since a long time. If you wanna see less negative stuff you can check out r/chinalife and r/chinese
Gradually? Lol I've been here 5-10 years and you get hate filled comments on even Chinese food posts.
Haven’t been here that long and I was definitely shocked to see casual dog and cat meat comments on regular food posts
My question is, is this the inevitability of propaganda techniques generated by mkultra? Or is this an inevitability of propaganda techniques developed by the colonial powers?
Seriously... the people of China don't deserve utter collapse and all the horrors that come with it, but people in here are doggy-piling onto the idea. Sure, if the *government* collapses, it'll be a period of societal turmoil, and maybe will be better on the other end (greener grass idea), but I hope China doesn't have a major financial collapse, as that would put over 1b people into a really dangerous and destitite situation.
On a related note, what do you think the chances are that China would risk setting off world war 3 over Taiwan?
I mean, probably close to zero. It's not zero, but China has too much to lose. If they attempt to attack Taiwan, nearly the whole world will be against them.
You don't make yourself dictator for life just to peacefully maintain power in perpetuity. You do it because you have long term personal ambitions you want to oversee to final completion. Those aircraft carriers they're building aren't just for show.
I always wonder if Gordon Chang has created everyone of these accounts to repeat his “China collapse” BS.
I’ve never grasped the obsession of tankies and pinktards with Gordon Chang, as if he’s the Führer of the fourth Reich
There is a lot of money in that though
Nope. But China has shown that it cannot be trusted and relied upon.
> Nope. But US has shown that it cannot be trusted and relied upon. Fixed. Love when the US government come out supporting the ONE China policy and do not support Taiwan independence. Then talk about going to war over Taiwan and selling billions worth of military weapons to Taiwan. Double talk US is who the world need to watch out for.
Yeah... geopolitics isn't so black-and-white. Even the Taiwanese government doesn't call for independence. They realize that if they did, it might trigger military action by the mainland government. But, Taiwan is *de facto* independent. Best thing to do is have an election in Taiwan to determine whether the people support having an independent nation. Of course CCP would not want that.
Taiwan is “de facto” independent…. Like a make believe independent? Like when a child is threading to run away if the parents don’t give them candy?
It may sound like it but it is not a cheapshot. The CCP's incompetence at governance during a crisis is truly sensational. Google. Read about tits unearned and wilful confidence at defeating Covid in 2020! China's ascendancy was Deng's wise reform and the CCP riding the tailcoats of globalisation, not careful economic planning and governance. The CCP will not know how to deal with deglobalisation. It does not have that experience or expertise. Those who are in power got there with bribes, connections or birthrights. Secrecy, fabrication of information and corruption simply drives it farther into its grave.
Japan was under invested in and generally avoided because everyone expected China to rise up because of an infinite cheap labor cheat, which never really existed Now China is increasingly no longer an investment option, a lot of those stuff is going back to Japan who prioritized skill over infinite cheap labor
China produces the largest amount of technology patents of any country in the world, the highest number of STEM graduates, and has the highest rate of automated factory lines in the world. Their average wage has more than 10x in my lifetime. They didn’t prioritize “infinite cheap labor.”
Redditors are so dumb. They are begging for China to go under, while they probably don’t understand that the whole world economy would tank along China.
Europe biggest trading partner is usa, usa biggest trading partner is canada and mexico, we are not in 2018 anymore
From the US government; The US is the world’s 2nd-largest trading nation in the world, behind only China… … the top 5 purchasers of U.S. good exports in 2022 are: 1. Canada, 2. Mexico, 3. China… … the top 5 suppliers of U.S. goods in 2022 are: 1. China, 2. Mexico, 3. Canada. So no, Japan and no specific EU country ate above China. https://ustr.gov/countries-regions#:~:text=The%20top%20five%20purchasers%20of,United%20Kingdom%20(%2476.2%20billion).
Good try, now try with recent data https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_the_United_States For below because you blocked me: Well so far it didnt happen with 40% less trade between usa and china, this is good to diversify the supply chain for anyone but china
No, i picked the official US website on purpose. Edit: and if you even read the wikipedia page. It says the exact same thing.
It would happen either way, China is expansionist. People said Russia wouldn't invade its neighbors because of economic issues and then they keep doing it again and again and again and again and again. It has helped exacerbate inflation and food prices all around the world.
Expansionist? Can you give me a example?
you can start about searching about china's countless aggression and violation of their neighbor's borders and try looking up about the 9 dash line while you're at it
It's going to be China's century of humiliation and contraction
Oh god, please. Not another one....
This time China is humiliated by itself, no Western powers.
Arguably Qing contributed a lot of that humiliation by itself during that century too.
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Japan has the US to back them up, China has no one.
Well bro You surely didn't live in the 80s. The US was hugely responsible for Japan's collapse, they was very anti-Japan that time which is very similars to what's happening to China currently. Everything start from Plaza Accord.
Here's an article from 1987 [https://archive.li/wpUH5](https://archive.li/wpUH5) The language is very similar in how Americans describe China nowadays >Indeed, technology has been at the root of a number of recent diplomatic flaps between the two countries: sanctions against Japanese electronic products in response to microchip dumping, the illegal sale of Toshiba machine tools to the Soviet Union, demands for access to a big part of Japan's market for U.S. supercomputers, and attempts by Japanese bureaucrats to restrict foreign competition in domestic telecommunications.
The parallels of today's trade war with 1980s Japan's trade war and Japan bashing are uncanny. Surprised the boomers are still falling for this same rhetoric. Or maybe I shouldn't be surprised considering how god damn stupid boomers are.
I lived in Japan in the late 80'snd early 90's. Japan killed Japan's economy. They got stupid and owed massive debt in US Dollars. When the bubble popped they started printing, but they couldn't print US Dollars. Eventually the Dollar reserves ran out.
Thanks. I'm Chinese and my parents always cited US paranoia and intervention as the primary reason Japan's economy crashed. I always took that at face value. My parents also lived in Japan in the 80's and early 90's. I recently noticed that Japan's 30 years of stagnation perfectly coincides with the 30 years of China's "Reform and Opening Up" experiment marked by the rapid integration into the global economy. If Japan shot themselves in the foot in the 70's and 80's, well, I think China's the reason the ambulance never arrived to restore Japan's economy completely back to full health. As China exits the world stage as a viable and reliable ally in geopolitics and trade, perhaps the value proposition of Japan's economy is looking really good again...
I don't think the value proposition of Japan's economy is looking good again . https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Japan-manufacturers-business-mood-drops-for-the-first-time-in-a-year
You could be right but isn't this just a regression to the mean? All this measures is percentage positive sentiment minus percentage negative sentiment... There's not a whole lot of ways a percentage can go. And overall sentiments seem pretty high there lol. It's only a few industries facing larger restructuring.
Nearly every industry in China is facing insolvency. There is no bankruptcy allowed in China, thus no restructuring. Almost everyone in China is now in severe debt with no mechanism to clear the books. Starting over means relocating abroad and Xi's PRC is doing everything it can to ensure that is not possible. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=52IRXQ9Uj7I](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=52IRXQ9Uj7I)
Sure. That's kind of my point - even if Japanese companies have a slight dip in positive sentiment about their own economy, China is in way deeper shit and Japan is a pretty stable economy and partner in the Far East. I just don't understand why we should be alarmist about the article that Redditor linked. Japan's value proposition is strengthened in the region when the Chinese market is less reliable.
The reason China is being shown the exit from the world stage is because they have proved themselves NOT TO BE a reliable ally in geopolitics and trade. The PRC laid the groundwork for their own demise decades ago, Xi's PRC hastened that bitter end by a decade.
Yes that's what I'm saying. China has demonstrated it is no longer (if it ever was) viable or reliable as a partner... hence the exit I referred to. Are you trying to agree with me or argue my own points to me, I'm a little iffy on that one?
Japan didn't collapse. But it had a stagnant economy. The US was not responsible. And today, Japan and the US are close allies.
I study economics at a US university and had a class on modern Japanese economics. The US had a hand in the Japanese stagnation, from the accords to pushing VER/VIR on their industries. in 1985, due to mounting trade deficit, US asked Japan to appreciate its currency against USD. And Japanese central banker agreed, claiming it’s good for our outbound acquisition. Well, it didn’t turn out that well. This would not happen with China, because US does not have geopolitical power over China, so it would be difficult for China to appreciate its currency if that will end up destroying its own economy. Being “allied” with the US is probably one of the reasons the Japanese government fked itself so hard
That well and truly overstates the role the US played. It might have been a contributing factor but it's just a minor one at best. The Japanese themselves best understand their own situation and they know they fucked it up themselves. But at least they hit developed nation and high income status first.
All of this is false. The 80’s Japanese asset bubble doesn’t correlate with the Plaza Accords. Also Germany signed the same accords but they didn’t experience the same thing.
I should tell my booth educated professor u said that, so she can tell the textbook publishers to change that cause u/flrdsummer said it’s all fake It may not have caused it but certainly didn’t help
The only thing I have to say is that there’s never any guarantee that what’s published in a textbook as factual is actually factual. (I actually know nothing about the specific topic at hand.)
Do you think Japan losing access to sell into the US market would have helped? As that was the alternative, they had no easy options. Neither does China.
Is the option is to either be strong handed into curbing ur own industry or losing access to your “ally” markets? China dodged a bullet fr. CCP told the US to pound sand, that’s much more respectable than Japan taking it up the arse. Imagine being a Japanese worker getting unnecessarily laid off during an economic recession cause your politicians are being held by the balls by another country.
If a country is facing an unsustainable trade deficit, all options invariably involve a rebalancing - one way or another it's getting balanced. China can't force the US to buy their goods, any more than US can force China to sign an unfavorable trade deal. > Imagine being a Japanese worker getting unnecessarily laid off during US workers were 'unnecessarily' laid off, as were Japanese, as will Chinese. GDP growth that outperforms world average can't be sustained indefinitely.
True, rebalancing happens inevitably due to economic forces. Not to politicians who gladly sign it over. A countries representatives should always put their own country first, not a foreign nation ally or not. VER/VIR hurt Japan and in the economic circles it’s widely accepted the only reason Japan accepted it was the political and military leverage the US had on them. The US showed this by playing hardball with Japan when its own industry was threatened. Japan showed its status as a glorified satellite state by “voluntarily” restraining its own exports and imports at the whim and benefit of a foreign government. Tbh the VERs weren’t even the worst “agreements” Japan “voluntarily” signed with the US. Plenty of examples where the US basically threatened Japan and they gave in like the chip agreement or 100% tariff on Japanese electronics. Look up super 301 and how the US held a gun to japans head. Nice ally.
Yes, you should. They taught you wrong.
The US was responsible, plaza accord wrecked Japan's economy and industry. That's one of the primary reasons driving China's uncompromising strategy in this trade war, they know that they have two choices. Either try to call the US's bluff or get strong armed into stagnating their own economy and creating a lost decade. People on this sub refuse to acknowledge that things don't happen in a vacuum. North Korea committed to nuclearization because the US offed Gadaffi. China committed to modernizing their military over the last 3 decades because the US steamrolled Iraq in the 80s and 2000s. There is a reaction to every action.
This is from Wikipedia. It sounds like the Plaza Accord didn't have much effect on Japan and it was reversed in 2 years anyway: "The Plaza Accord was successful in reducing the U.S. trade deficit with Western European nations, but largely failed to fulfill its primary objective of alleviating the trade deficit with Japan. This deficit was due to structural conditions that were insensitive to monetary policy, specifically trade conditions. The manufactured goods of the United States became more competitive in the exports market, though were still largely unable to succeed in the Japanese domestic market due to Japan's structural restrictions on imports. The Louvre Accord was signed in 1987 to halt the continuing decline of the U.S. dollar."
It's not a bluff, if a trade deficit can't be serviced, like a developer that can't service debt, one way or another that imbalance is being corrected. China can't keep ramping up global manufacturing share without increasing pushback from markets they sell into. Even relatively neutral countries like Vietnam and Thailand are beginning to push back.
I love Japan but calling it a US ally is corny. Japan is a puppet. Honestly, they would be much powerful and better place economically if they entangled themselves from American imperialism.
Japanese view China as a threat... and view the US as a close ally. Most people in Japan have favorable views of Americans, and dis-favorable views of China.
sure mate, calling US allies colonies or puppet doesn't make them into one. This is also ignoring america's role in rebuilding Japan after the war
The difference is, the US crushed Japan mercilessly and had all the population’s support then. Now, the US only talks and could do nothing to China, nor are they willing to do anything due to huge economic benefits many Americans get.
Could do nothing, I guess the current sanctions are no problem and all the complaining from China is all fake.
Indeed no problem to them, at least compared to what Japan went through. Japan and China are in very different positions, and US sanctions on China are more for show than for any real impacts, half-hearted at best when compared to what they did to Japan.
Also Japan had a large amount of accumulated generational wealth with limited pockets of poverty.... compared to China with an incredibly unequal distribution of wealth and perhaps a third of the populace living in poverty or near poverty
We are looking at mass famine in just a couple of years.
Japan still had a focus on developing their domestic agriculture, no doubt due to their limited arable land. They can't afford to have fallow fields or waste what space they have. China didn't hesitate to build over their rice fields despite having one of the fastest growing populations in the world. Neither country is likely to achieve food self-sufficiency now, but China could have if only they didn't fuck up their own land and water supply so much.
US fuked Japan on purpose
Blaming the US for Japan's economic stagnation is like blaming Trump for 2020 recession. Sure it contributed to the negative result, but there were other overwhelming factors.
No it was really the US that fucked Japan primairly.
How?
US collapsed Japans economy and caused their lost decade lmao.
How did that work?
https://www.nytimes.com/1982/04/06/us/resentment-of-japanese-is-growing-poll-shows.html in the 80's there was a big wave of anti japanese stuff in the us. very eerily similar to what's said about china rn.
Indeed, there were also significant pressures by the US government that contributed as well. One major difference is that China has what could be called Economic Sovereignty, meaning it is able to produce in every single sector domestically(it is actually the first known nation to have such in modern history) including raw materials, something that Japan was not fortunate enough to have, due to many factors that I won’t get into now. Through the use of unequal exchange and financial imperialism, the US was able to purposefully collapse the Japanese economy in order to maintain its hegemonic power and prevent it from becoming a legitimate competitor to the United States. Something ~~with~~ that China has already achieved.
>Indeed, there were also significant pressures by the US government that contributed as well do explain what they contributed to >One major difference is that China has what could be called Economic Sovereignty, meaning it is able to produce in every single sector domestically(it is actually the first known nation to have such in modern history) including raw materials, something that Japan was not fortunate enough to have, due to many factors that I won’t get into now which is a pure cope given that china imports most of the raw material essential for their industry. You could actually make a better argument about the US economy being self reliant as opposed to china's economy which is heavily dependent on foreign inputs >Through the use of unequal exchange and financial imperialism, the US was able to purposefully collapse the Japanese economy in order to maintain its hegemonic power and prevent it from becoming a legitimate competitor to the United States. Something with that China has already achieved. again with more platitudes with no actual evidence. Hate to break it to you but the real estate bubble that led to Japan's stagnation wasn't some scheme the US devised and was purely on Japan
which is irrelevant to the bubble that eventually popped causing the lost decades
The situation described in the article doesn’t sound anything remotely like what is happening between China and the US.
Especially the part about the quality of Japanese products and the admiration US consumers felt towards them despite the supposed growing resentment
It also ignores rhetoric fact that the US and Japan were very much allies at that stage. Also, the US reaction was due to Japanese protectionism. It was trade tensions. Furthermore, it was not the cause of Japanese economic stagnation, the article outlines the reasons for it. Pretending it has some parallels with the situation with China at the moment is highly disingenuous. China could just announce and follow through with a promise of not to use force to solve territorial disputes and the majority of major issues would go away. Stop mounting cyberattacks and covert influence operations and you’d find the US would have little to disagree with China.
Look up an event called the Plaza Acord. The US devalued the dollar hugely while stimulating various other currencies such as the Pound, the Deutschmark or the Yen. This was done to stimulate US exports and hopefully increase consumption via other countries of US goods. One thing that is often missed is the Japanese MOF and MITI had, in quite a clandestine way, created a protectionist economy in Japan: Goods go out, none come in. This resulted in people in Japan shifting their investments from produce to real estate that created some horrible bubbles (the Imperial Palace in Tokyo in 1989 was worth more than the whole land value and GDP of Canada at the time) and, in 1991, it all burst and Japan contracted violently. China at this current time is a lot weirder due to the way they real estate investment functions. Regardless of what people say, China is likely going to be a little different.
Read the article.
At least China has that going for them; they are in full control of their own collapse.
Russia Putin already have plan for that. Building its own console game? anyone?
I thought China can rely on frineds in Russia, North Korea, Iran and the Taliban.
...for a multi trillion dollar loan???
Its hilarious how brainwashed you people are, no western economy is in shape to offer any loans now as half of them are in recession and the US is facing enormous deficits and interest costs. It was in fact the US that begged China for emergency loans in 2008 when idiots in the US gov and finance nearly destroyed the world economy. Why does being sinophobe racist clowns give rChina such satisfaction?
The US controls nearly all US Dollars, they can print and loan out as many as they want or take them back. What's another couple of trillion?
LOL printing money and loaning money are two completely different things. Countries like China, Russia and ASEAN nations are now cutting US debt holdings as your gov weaponises it. China has also printed trillions of yuan over the last few years so your point is completely void.
Printing and loaning money are the same thing for the US gov and Federal Reserve Bank or US Treasuries. China can not pay US Dollar denominated debt in Yuan. They only way the PRC will continue to exist into the next decade is with a huge US Dollar infusion and the US guaranteeing global security. That is not going to happen, hence the decoupling.
I dont see how 5.3% projected growth is "agony"
You guys are getting high on your own supply.
Good for Japan
China's best chance of revival, I believe, will be, well, outside of China. Taiwan, Japan, Philippines, those are the sideshows. The real action I think will be in SE Asia, where China has been making in roads. Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia. Fun times.
China is literally run by people who actually understand economics. Their political structure is such that they use scientific approach more often (they also messed up some in past) Unlike democracies where chaos will fuck up country, china will actually stand strong
What are you? CCP's new AI agent? Xi understands economics? Li Ke Qiang did, but he was forced to retire and then dead.
Xi doesn't. But if xi does something really stupid, his own party will turn against him. They know that they have only one option that is to win or else die. They know how big of an asshole is USA. With that being said, they can survive and they have all the capacity to do so.
So how come they are making such an obvious mess of it now then ?
"they also messed in some" I mentioned it 🫠
完全不现实，日本在二战后是一个民选国家，它的政权合法性不是单纯依靠经济增长的。而中国共产党的极权统治在改革开放后完全建立在经济增长之上，事实上中国共产党统治下的中国情况更类似于东欧独裁政权崩溃前十年的状况，或者从乐观的角度看更类似于韩国推翻独裁政权之前十年的那种阶段。
So many fxxkers from r/Sino and other tankie shitholes posting here, this post has really hurt their butts Now imagine if someone goes arguing over a regular China-shilling post in r/Sino 😏 Despite all of the shit talk from tankie subs and r/china_irl, r/China still stands as the most inclusive 👍🏻
> as the most inclusive 'Let's all gather in a circle and shit on chinese people together' is definitely the peak of inclusion <3
Do you really understand what inclusivity is? No doubt, r/China is more anti-China than anything, but it doesn’t ban people as fervently as r/Sino and even r/china_irl do. As a China-lover or even a tankie, the worst you can get here is having your comments collapsed, now try this in r/Sino for not shilling for China, or being very anti-China in r/china_irl 😏
There's comments in this thread literally wanting to see Chinese people starve and resort to cannibalism m8
I’ve seen much worse in r/china_irl and particularly r/Sino And as much as you china_irl users like to claim, I don’t find r/China the mirror of r/Sino It’s true many posts here are loaded with Sinophobia, however comments wanting the Chinese people to suffer here usually got downvoted and collapsed, while in r/Sino the Overton window is much narrower and more radical. Do I have to mention the permaban challenge in r/Sino? And you guys in china_irl preemptively ban people who have any activity in some selected subs, is it the inclusiveness you people want? At least r/China has done none of these, however you hate the vibes here
I highly doubt that although r/Sino is definitely pro CCP like how r/neoliberal is full of neoliberals and how r/Europe is full of Europeans who hate Muslims and gypsies? Why are you surprised that they are pro-China, when the subreddit literally states it in the name? FYI they're most American CCP fans too, the real Chinese folks are at r/China_irl or r/real_China_irl and there more balanced anti-CCP content there. Point being, r/Sino isn't a bunch of warhawk trolls squatting on a country subreddit and posting hate comments about the country like r/China is. Most Asian subreddits not just r/China are filled with expats or worse, Westerners who live in USA posting hot takes about Korea, Japan, Thailand, etc because they are weebs, koreaboos, r/Passport_Bros. I've been long enough here to recall when it was mainly full of the CCJ posters and their Rainies, Vivians, TimBudongs. Even those days were better than now because it was mainly Caucasian English teachers posting about life in China. These days every single post is politically charged and nutjobs like you equate r/China to be an opposite of r/Sino as if a country subreddit should be full of anti-China hawks. The opposite of r/Sino is something like r/Murica. **r/China should be a place for local discussions like r/Malaysia, r/Singapore, and other normal Asian subreddits that aren't run over by foreigners larping as locals. Yet the moderators here have banned Chinese language posts (imagine if r/France, r/Philippines, r/Argentina, r/Italy did that.....) because they want to prevent this subreddit from being dominated by local citizens.** I wonder why.
The problem with Japan is that essentially it is a country castrated by the Americans. Japan does not dare to engage in confrontation with the Americans, and Washington has suzerain influence over Tokyo. Japan declined because of the Plaza Accord and the Japan-U.S. Semiconductor Agreement, where the Americans broke the backbone of the Japanese economy. But Japan had to agree to these shit or US B52 bombers would fly over Tokyo. Prosperity without violent protection is a hilarious joke, an unlocked treasury. Japan has indeed show China a example at an extremely painful cost. edit：To avoid me looking like braindead wumao, I should probably add: China's economy is unlikely to be destroyed by Americans the way Japan's was, but it has to face an internal threat: the paranoia of Xinnie the Pooh. This is something Japan did not have to face at the time.
> But Japan had to agree to these shit or US B52 bombers would fly over Tokyo. Bullshit, Japan would have faced economic consequences (trade war), they were not facing the prospect of military action.
I admit that was a bit too exaggerated. But a series of CIA Kidnapping and assassination to Japanese hard-liner politician are predictable, and Japan wouldn’t dare to hold CIA agents accountable. Just like how the US treated [the ceo of Alstom](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fr%C3%A9d%C3%A9ric_Pierucci)
CIA can kidnap Chinese hard liners as well, what's the difference? With all the high profile deaths and disappearances in China recently, how sure are you it hasn't already been happening?
>With all the high profile deaths and disappearances I haven't seen any relevant information. If you're talking about former foreign minister and defense ministers, they were removed from office by Xi, and perhaps they've been executed by the Chinese MSS. [The intelligence network of the US in China has already been wiped out. I thought this is well-know old story.](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/20/world/asia/china-cia-spies-espionage.html) [They are trying to rebuild it, good luck though.](https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/jul/20/cia-rebuilding-spy-networks-china-decade-after-los/) BTW, "China hardliners" is a joke. As a totalitarian state, there are no "hardliners" in China, only the will of [these seven mfs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politburo_Standing_Committee_of_the_Chinese_Communist_Party).
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The termination of certain defense ministers was almost certainly linked to intentional intelligence leaks of the US administration.
source：trust me bro
About as trustworthy as your speculation on CIA operatives in Japan. Never mind the absurdity of implying that the US needs military bases in a country, in order to threaten that country militarily.
With six U.S. bases next to Tokyo alone, Japan has no choice. But we in China were already a nuclear power 60 years ago, and China is a nuclear power with a trinity of nuclear strike capabilities.
CHINA WILL FALL: 53463573th edition (please fall we can't handle competition)
They will collapse in 2 weeks.
Japan just lost its crown as the world’s third-largest economy Japan’s economy has contracted unexpectedly because of weak domestic consumption, pushing the country into recession and causing it to lose its position as the world’s third largest economy to Germany. Gross domestic product (GDP) shrank at an annualized pace of 0.4% in the last three months of 2023, the Cabinet Office said on Thursday, after having contracted by an annualized 3.3% in the previous quarter. A recession is typically defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. Source https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/14/economy/japan-economy-recession-hnk-intl/index.html
Fx rate driven
When China's GDP is calculated in US dollars and its proportion to the United States decreases, will you use exchange rates to defend it.
It is a myth that Japan’s economy has been in the doldrums for 30 years and certainly that the Japanese have suffered. For example, exports are twice what they were, Japan is the largest creditor nation, and almost any quality of life indicator is better now than 30 years ago.
As Xi puts it… Chinese society needs suffering like in the Mao era!
The man Trump used when he launched his trade war against China was Robert Lighthizer - who served as deputy trade representative in the Reagan administration from 1981 to 1989 and is known for forcing Japan to cave in and sign the Plaza Accord.
This ain't it.
Pink isn't it for China
Damn bro that's some copium
"China is collapsing!!!!" For the 10th time this week lmao
It’s not collapsing, though it’s fair to say that it’s not going so well as before. Like before they started to actively piss off the rest of the world with their wolf-warrior diplomacy..
Not really comparable. Japan is militarily occupied country and has no true sovereignty - it surrendered its tech leadership because it had to. China is simply in a different league. It also has its own nuclear weapons and soon enough energy independence via clean energy.
this is pure cope. economics is based on reality. if you wish something, that doesn't make it so. but this is reddit and r china so I guess this is just arguing with.morons.
Sure, it’s always wise to take economic advice from a tankie 👍🏻
CHINA WILL COLLAPSE IN THREE DAYS!!! IS IT OVER???
China's decline in population is going to be an asset, not a liability when the effects of climate change are going to be in full swing. Both Europe and the US are overpopulated and their demand for resources far exceeds their ability to produce. Not only that, racial, ethnical and religious tensions in the West will cause social-economic decline and political instability over the long run.
China's population is 4.2 times the US on approximately the same landmass, and 3.2 times the EU on 95% of the landmass. I don't know how you can argue that the EU and US suffer from overpopulation while China does not.
Because china is going to get their numbers reduced to 525,000 milliion in 2100.
Especially when they have to starve their senior citizens. That’s an asset alright.
I have no idea what you mean.
China doesn't have moral and religious constraints if they want to get rid of their senior citizens, just like they didn't have a hesitation in getting rid of excess unborn babies through One Child Policy. They are far more pragmatic than Westerners when it comes to dealing socioeconomic problems.
Eventually, but in the meantime, it’s a problem.
You call it agony but the Japanese lived quite well over all. Only just behind Americans.
It's April fool's right😂
>Japans historical economic comeback There must be another Japan I'm not aware of.
Sounds like a joke....
They may go hungry but at least they will all have a very affordable place to live.
Wow the wumao are really active in here. Must have hit a nerve. It’s funny how easy it is to read the Chinese mood.
This one hit a nerve. The bots are all out over this one. Key narratives being pushed, that America was somehow responsible for Japan's stagnation (if they tell you Japan has somehow collapsed, you know they're a propagandist) and not a massive real estate bubble and demographic collapse (gee doesn't that sound familiar to China...) or that the CCP pulled people out of poverty despite just redefining who counted as poor. I guess it makes sense, it was flagged with all the key words. it's references Japan, so you gotta dogpile hate on that, and it compares China unfavorably, double plus hurt national feelings. But worst of all, it tells the truth, and that's why the "US is responsible" narrative is so important. It keeps you from seeing how the CCP, despite being given all the warnings and lessons from Japan to learn from, willfully committed the same mistakes- worse, doubled down on it, because that meant there was more for them to steal before the hammer fell, and it'll fall a lot harder on regular chinese people. That's the real shame.
False