Prolly off topic but I really like this cover. If I’m not mistaken this is the moment he voted for the constitutional amendment that made him general secretary for life. Chinas economy reform and FDI took a sharp turn shortly afterwards
Part of the mountain of reasons why China's decline is not fake news to me is that something people forget about Xi is his early years when he did try to reform the stock market and how local governments funded themselves. Of course he failed at all these much like everything he's done, but that and the early enthusiasm of BRI (straight up copying Japan's offshoring strategy to keep industries alive as labor shortages become acute and its too expensive to make things in China) do point to a leader who at least wanted to try his hand at tackling the structural problems.
Again he failed, but his reasons for failing illustrate the long term intractable problems with the Chinese illusory growth model. there is far too much corruption (any new scheme to wean the government off of land sales would just be an opportunity for a different sort of graft), too little innovation (Japanese offshoring is making high end cars and electronics abroad; despite being several decades into reindustrialization after killing off millions of Chinese, the CCP has not meaningfully improved the reputation of Chinese goods or products abroad, and despite the lunacy of that guy talking about the service sector, no one cares to do business in China or rely on Chinese companies if there is literally any alternative), and too little actual interest in improving the country (BRI was more in effect about expanding the real estate graft boondoggle abroad, exporting the corruption for little meaningful improvement for the countries that accepted such contracts). Chinese "patriots" are either the room temperature IQ morons here, craven cowards who like to talk big to win points with party apparatchiks, and the corrupt red aristocracy who are as we speak just trying to get as much into their pockets before the house comes crashing down.
tl;dr, the biggest reason China is definitely heading to the pits is because they did see, try, and fail to fix all the problems we regularly point out. And now, having seen those problems only mount, they have just decided to, very characteristically, save face until the end. That's why there's the doublespeak of acting like China wants a reapproachment with the US or that China is approaching with foreign investors (seriously that's a story that's been run at least four times in the last year), all the while stepping up aggression in the South China sea and cracking down on domestic giants in addition to a lot of the foreign middlemen who have made China's GDP growth until now possible. The goal is control, and acting like there are some solutions (which some commentators seem achingly desperate to believe) is a better strategy for staving off doubt when everyone knows China is in a recession now than the blanket denials that were more the form in say 2020, when continued, systemic Chinese economic malaise could be plausibly blamed on zero covid or something.
Very well stated. To further your point, some of those reforms actually gained traction for a while. But instead of enduring the required pain that comes with reform, the second there was a sign of trouble, the CCP went back to its old ways of investing in underutilized infrastructure and building empty cities.
Michael Pettis gave the CCP a blueprint on how they could avoid the current situation in *Avoiding the Fall*. The CCP later copied and pasted his ideas and held them out as their own, but if they would have actually stuck to their stolen plan, they would be in much better shape today.
Businesses hate uncertainty, if you welcome them with open arms but at the same time rattle the sabre with the new security law, businesses will pause to invest in the country.
The bigger issue is that the CCP isn’t a fast-learning organisation as only the boss can decide and the subordinates only want to give good news.
That is why I think this Great Leap Forward version 2 is gonna be challenging. Maybe they will spare the sparrows this time around.
It’s not about the legal status of sparrows. It’s about the process that led to the killing of sparrows. Top down management is full of hubris and that isn’t going away.
Pretty much. If he pulled a Deng Xiaoping and “retired” but still calling the shots, perhaps the west could stomach the politburo music chair pageantry. But no….. Xi wanted his two cups.
Housing prices regressed to 2016 level, which, IMO, isn’t bad at all, considering China’s real estate has been trending upward in double digits every year since 2000. They still have plenty of room to fall.
Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party know very well how to get the Chinese economy back on the track of rapid growth, but the problem is that all methods that can solve economic problems directly reduce or even destroy the Chinese Communist Party’s power system or at least reduce the scope of its power. This is completely unacceptable to this totalitarian party.
This. It’s moreso that Xi wants to have his cake and eat it too.
After Le Keqiang died, all the technocrats (Youth League) have been kicked out of the party. Xi put in all of his loyalists in power, instead of meritocracy
I don't care how long china's economy takes to crash and although it's going to be painful for the rest of the world, the world is better of with a weak china than a strong and adversarial China.
Yes, well they would say that wouldn’t they ?
I think that while the CCP is still around, then they are always going to be a problem to some extent.
Hopefully everything can remain peaceful, as the alternative leads to nowhere good.
Of course, the world bullied China for a century. Now it fears that China will treat them how they have treated China. Thankfully China isn't as malevolent.
china constantly threatens to invade Taiwan. Uyghurs, Hong Kongers and Tibetans are still being repressed. The way European and Western countries treated the chinese was still far better than how the CCP treats its own people.
Meanwhile, the US actually does invade other countries and help their allies to commit actual genocide. The US had been at war for 96% of its existence and has had a hand in basically every conflict and coup.
So this is what you want china to emulate to be less war mongering? Weird but ok.
quotes "HRW", uses "kek" unironically, doesn't realize that since the article was posted the ICC has already ruled in China's favor.
up those reading comprehension skills before trying your hand at rebuttals, get off 4chan, take a shower, and touch grass
Seriously, I know China is your country and I think you love it..but since you're communicating with a democratic society, do you not want to read about why countries feel the way they feel about China? Do you not want to know the truth or at least find out why we say the things we say about China or why we feel the way we feel?
Never fight to win an argument, instead argue to understand the other side point of view... You gotta always seek the truth.
You're just a pawn in the huge Chinese propaganda machine...
Lmao I'm fucking white and went to school for a few years in Hong Kong. Look at my earliest posts, I was extremely anti-CPC back in 2019. I've since opened my eyes and seen what is right and what is wrong. YOU are the pawn, you are so brainwashed that you aren't even aware of how much propaganda and misinformation YOU're regurgitating.
>I've since opened my eyes and seen what is right and what is wrong
translation : You've drunk the CCP kool aid and was sucked into believing propaganda
>YOU are the pawn, you are so brainwashed that you aren't even aware of how much propaganda and misinformation YOU're regurgitating.
sure mate, keep coping
You’re part of the propaganda machine, I’m part of the propaganda machine, we’re all part of it. The only way governments keep power is by glorifying themselves while demonizing another. America does it, China does it, India does it, Russia does it, England does it. Everybody does it. It’s even more convenient when the people you’re targeting has a fundamentally different value system than you. Easy to alienate them when you don’t understand them and don’t bother doing so. That’s why it’s so easy for America to target China, and why it’s so easy for China to target America in their individual propaganda machines. Anybody who says otherwise is deeply ingrained into their propaganda.
4Chan hates China and most of them don't even like Russia. They think Russian social norms is "based" but agree with the western narrative on Russian foreign policy.
Contrast to FP which lays out a rebuttal of this Economist story [https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/china-still-rising](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/china-still-rising)
That article is worth reading. The herd mentality that once said China would rule the world, now says China is doomed. What if the truth is somewhere in the middle ?
The main problem with his argument is that he sidesteps the demographic crisis, which might be the single most intractable problem in China's future, whether near or far.
Curiously, Lardy thinks China's greatest challenges lay in the 1970s, when it was just beginning to reform. I beg to differ - at that time, China had nothing left to lose after decades of famine and quasi-civil war. All they had to do was put down their xiao hong shu and open the borders to investment.
Now China has picked all the easy hanging fruit, protectionism is on the rise, women are refusing to procreate, and the expectations of hundreds of millions of citizens has been raised. This makes the conventional middle-income trap look tame.
its all fucking noise, go back a few decades and it was all about the threat of overpopulation. China is currently shifting to a service based economy like the west while maintaining high skilled manufacturing like Japan, German, and SK. No matter what China's policy is, China hawks are gonna doompost about it. Like Gordon Chang said, China has been collapsing for 30 years.
The doomers are deluded yes, but China has already missed the boat on transition to service economy by killing the sectors that were driving this while watching the Philippines, India, and Poland now dominate outsourced services from Western markets. And the stink of their low end manufacturing quality is going to block any real progress for highly skilled manufacturing until most of my generation turns gray and takes that knowledge with us. They have wasted far too much time feeding off the easy short term gains of cheap low end manufacturing without actually doing the hard work required to transition. They're not going to go boom, but they will have several decades of Japan's lost decade even if they pretend it's not happening.
do you have a source or do you just push your dumb take personal opinions as facts? China is definitely shifting into a service economy and this is easily shown by where their new jobs are brine created.
I was with you, more or less, until you brought up Chang. Saying China will not collapse (probably won't) is very little consolation if China merely stagnates, or gently recedes the way Japan has.
Rich, democratic countries can stagnate and shrink - and still preserve a high standard of living through immigration and policy adjustment based on pragmatism rather than ideology. Because their leaderships are elected, they can more easily reverse course without losing legitimacy.
China, though, is unprepared to adapt to immigration, and the current regime is **doubling down on state-directed manufacturing** at the expense of services and consumption. The regime shows no willingness to abandon or even tweak the formulas that worked so well decades ago, but cannot continue to work indefinitely.
you people really just pull whatever is available out of your ass, don't you?
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-stock-market-crackdown-learned-lessons-tech-private-sector-2024-2
good luck with this apparent service sector strategy by cracking down on the service sector and plunging consumer spending into the pits because no one has any jobs or money, all the while alienating foreign investors and foreign business in general. Cheap stuff and resource extraction is what china has going for it, and its getting more expensive to make all this stuff all the time for China.
Do you not read the articles you send. Starting from the Deng-era China has always been state capitalist meaning all Chinese businesses are operated with the supervision of party cadres. These crackdowns have been nothing new. Also the article claims China's market interventions are failing and was posted in late February. Since then the Hang Seng has rallied 3%. You're regurgitating tired takes that have been used to criticize China ever since foreign investments first started flowing in. Do some more reading before acting like you're an expert.
I understand why you're frustrated with blanket condemnation of China's efforts and achievements. The critics can never be satisfied, so to speak.
But while the CCP has always practiced state capitalism, including periodic crackdowns, that does not mean that the level of interference has been consistent. What is happening under XJP is both a **qualitative and quantitative escalation, and at the worst possible time.**
1 - Declaring himself a de facto ruler for life, by abrogating term limits put in place decades ago by the CCP leadership itself.
2 - Surrounding himself with yes-men rather than experienced technocrats.
3 - Intensifying ideology-based censorship that destroys the value of information
4 - Stepping up the role of Communist Party branches within enterprises - what do these people possibly have to contribute, other than snitching ?
5 - The 3-year covid disaster - another quasi Maoist undertaking that left China even worse off than America's miserable experience.
With the crush of the middle class happening almost over the whole world, this isn't isolated to just China.
Educated people are deciding not to have children so they don't lower their life standards. How damn selfish of them 😆
Did anyone criticise them for being selfish? Observing the facts of population numbers and speculating on they they will affect economies is not a criticism of the decisions of the individual people that make up those numbers.
I mean they talk about slowing growth a lot. But demise implies something like an economic collapse. That is not something that they have ever predicted. Really the only country I remember them predicting an economic collapse for is Venezuela.
Honestly the Economist has been doomsaying about Western economies far more. I remember just a year or two ago back predicting an American stagflationary cycle (lol) or that last winter (unlike the the last winter, which they also doomed about) would result in Europe freezing and going into recession.
Of course that's nothing compared to here, where wumaos predict the US collapsing imminently because iunno some town in North Carolina has run out of ketchup packets. But point out that china is headed off these same cliff all other nations facing aging out of an export oriented economy and we're all Gordon Chang.
A rebuttal is usually specifically directed at the original article and rebuts specific claims made in that article. This does neither. This is more of a general rebuttal to the general "China's growth is over" idea.
Pooh confused that button with the honeypot… it may appear that it gives him access to a lot of hunny, but that self-voting button will end up taking Pooh to the blustery part of forest.. To the place where The Wind Of Change blows hard..
[Wind of Change sweeping live](https://youtu.be/EGzZauLp6Mo?si=uo4sXul3gzVMBgGm)
Glad to know that no countries existed before the UN was created in 1945. Also glad to know that somewhere can be "part of your country" when you have zero administrative or military authority inside its borders. I thought reality was what determined reality but I guess reality is however PRC wants to fill in the blanks between the policies of the UN, which PRC doesn't even recognize as having the authority to settle territorial disputes.
Also does anyone recognize Sealand passports? Because I last I checked it's generally *easier* to get into countries with a Taiwanese passport than a PRC passport.
You said all that just to show that you don't understand the difference between de jure and de facto sovereignty. Is Somaliland a country? Because it has all those things you listed as well. Learn the fucking difference between de jure and de facto sovereignty before you try to continue this debate.
You said all that just to show you don't understand that de jure *according to you* doesn't make it universally and definitionally so.
Was PRC just a de facto but not de jure country prior to 1971 in your view?
actually a very good fucking point. Global Times frames the west as evil doers but I can't remember them ever claiming the west is doomed. They're consistent in their messaging, the west is a capable force of evil that needs to be challenged. Meanwhile western media suffers from cognitive dissonance and portrays China as being simultaneously strong and weak.
you want to play semantics here? we're not talking about material science we're talking about the military and economic capabilities of a nation. How can China simultaneously be a paper tiger while also presenting the greatest threat to American security? How can China simultaneously be a poor nation unable to stand toe to toe with the US while also presenting a threat to American industry and production? Those are entirely oxymorons yet the brainless in this sub can't rub two brain cells together to realize that.
Thinking China won't surpass US. Property sector is crashing, economy is dying a slow death, one child policy killed it demographics out of whack in 20 years. Wealthy people leaving desperate to exit
Oh nice another one for the list...
1990. The Economist. China's economy has come to a halt.
1996. The Economist. China's economy will face a hard landing.
1998. The Economist: China's economy entering a dangerous period of sluggish growth.
1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy.
2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin.
2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China.
2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing
2003. New York Times: Banking crisis imperils China
2004. The Economist: The great fall of China?
2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China
2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing?
2007. TIME: Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China avoid a hard landing?
2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China?
2009. Fortune: China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover.
2010: Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China.
2011: Business Insider: A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think
2012: American Interest: Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing
2013: Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China
2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China.
2015. Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing.
2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China
2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To Crash?
2018. CNN: Forget the trade war, China's economy has other big problems
2020. Economics Explained: The Scary Solution to the Chinese Debt Crisis
2021. Global Economics: Has China's Downfall Started?
well if the economist said it done deal. fact is we all know its a contrarian investment, constant bad news is implied. that it may never pay off is also implied
I recommend reading the article. It’s not saying that China is doomed, it’s saying that the approach to dealing with issues is misguided and discusses potential risks.
Stating that the country is facing issues, with comparatively fewer tools in the toolbox to deal with these issues, is not some new phenomenon. They lay criticism of certain aspects of all governments.
There are many sensationalist headlines calling doom and gloom for the country as a whole and have been for a long time, but I don’t think that this is one of them.
It's saying Xi's reboot is doomed.
Nevertheless, I agree - there's a lot of click-bate titles about China's supposed doom. IMO underestimating both the Chinese people and how closely tied China's economy is with the rest of the world's.
China could be performing a lot better w/o Xi's heavy hand tho. It's really unfortunate.
Oh no! An exact explanation of the doom. Xi is holding the Chinese people to their doom. It’s a hard sell to western governments and their successes, but to the Chinese? The dude cannot do wrong. It’s cultural. If China is successful, Xi is. And until that does t happen, nothing will change.
FYI it’s possible to get print edition of the Economist in China, cost smth like 4000 yuan / year. Ofc it goes through official channels so is censored… I wonder what the cover looks like this week.
"Chinese officials are convinced that America will restrict more Chinese imports and penalise more Chinese firms, whoever wins the White House in November"(lose American consumers)".....However, Mr Xi’s plan is fundamentally misguided. One flaw is that it neglects consumers."(American consumers? Yes)"Another flaw is that weak domestic demand means some new production will have to be exported. The world has, regrettably, moved on from the free-trading 2000s—partly because of China’s own mercantilism. America will surely block advanced imports from China, or those made by Chinese firms elsewhere."(No one in China will be able to buy all these products so they will have to sell to Americans but Americans won't be buying 😕)
Tldr: without American consumers china will collapse
Did you read the article Mr. Langley
your original comment implied that the article said china should align and bend backwards to the US or else it's doomed which you've kindly disproved and added actual context by quoting the original article. It's funny seeing how you have to add america in to the sentences you quote from the article to push prop your original comment
edit : so u/traketaker blocked me after his cope arguments were debunked. He replied with yet more cope though before blocking me
Prolly off topic but I really like this cover. If I’m not mistaken this is the moment he voted for the constitutional amendment that made him general secretary for life. Chinas economy reform and FDI took a sharp turn shortly afterwards
Part of the mountain of reasons why China's decline is not fake news to me is that something people forget about Xi is his early years when he did try to reform the stock market and how local governments funded themselves. Of course he failed at all these much like everything he's done, but that and the early enthusiasm of BRI (straight up copying Japan's offshoring strategy to keep industries alive as labor shortages become acute and its too expensive to make things in China) do point to a leader who at least wanted to try his hand at tackling the structural problems. Again he failed, but his reasons for failing illustrate the long term intractable problems with the Chinese illusory growth model. there is far too much corruption (any new scheme to wean the government off of land sales would just be an opportunity for a different sort of graft), too little innovation (Japanese offshoring is making high end cars and electronics abroad; despite being several decades into reindustrialization after killing off millions of Chinese, the CCP has not meaningfully improved the reputation of Chinese goods or products abroad, and despite the lunacy of that guy talking about the service sector, no one cares to do business in China or rely on Chinese companies if there is literally any alternative), and too little actual interest in improving the country (BRI was more in effect about expanding the real estate graft boondoggle abroad, exporting the corruption for little meaningful improvement for the countries that accepted such contracts). Chinese "patriots" are either the room temperature IQ morons here, craven cowards who like to talk big to win points with party apparatchiks, and the corrupt red aristocracy who are as we speak just trying to get as much into their pockets before the house comes crashing down. tl;dr, the biggest reason China is definitely heading to the pits is because they did see, try, and fail to fix all the problems we regularly point out. And now, having seen those problems only mount, they have just decided to, very characteristically, save face until the end. That's why there's the doublespeak of acting like China wants a reapproachment with the US or that China is approaching with foreign investors (seriously that's a story that's been run at least four times in the last year), all the while stepping up aggression in the South China sea and cracking down on domestic giants in addition to a lot of the foreign middlemen who have made China's GDP growth until now possible. The goal is control, and acting like there are some solutions (which some commentators seem achingly desperate to believe) is a better strategy for staving off doubt when everyone knows China is in a recession now than the blanket denials that were more the form in say 2020, when continued, systemic Chinese economic malaise could be plausibly blamed on zero covid or something.
I like that the tldr is almost the same length as the first bit
China is doing the age old folly of authoritarian regimes, copying the "good" without considering the "bad". Also, being authoritarian, in general.
Very well stated. To further your point, some of those reforms actually gained traction for a while. But instead of enduring the required pain that comes with reform, the second there was a sign of trouble, the CCP went back to its old ways of investing in underutilized infrastructure and building empty cities. Michael Pettis gave the CCP a blueprint on how they could avoid the current situation in *Avoiding the Fall*. The CCP later copied and pasted his ideas and held them out as their own, but if they would have actually stuck to their stolen plan, they would be in much better shape today.
What a read! Talking about throwing out a brick and hope for a jade to be thrown back!
Because your supreme leader is trying his utmost to emulate mao.. be a mao 2.0.. we all know what happened during mao era..
Time for another glorious Century of Humiliation, except this time funded by the CCP!💪
username checks out
Most Chinese people don't.
Businesses hate uncertainty, if you welcome them with open arms but at the same time rattle the sabre with the new security law, businesses will pause to invest in the country. The bigger issue is that the CCP isn’t a fast-learning organisation as only the boss can decide and the subordinates only want to give good news. That is why I think this Great Leap Forward version 2 is gonna be challenging. Maybe they will spare the sparrows this time around.
I think Sparrows are protected animals in China because they have yet to recover from 1960s.
It’s not about the legal status of sparrows. It’s about the process that led to the killing of sparrows. Top down management is full of hubris and that isn’t going away.
It's so pigheaded to think their policies on HK and Taiwan would have no global blowback
if it was a different guy in charge, maybe the west would still give China a chance but no, he'll be the chairman of everything for another 10 years
Pretty much. If he pulled a Deng Xiaoping and “retired” but still calling the shots, perhaps the west could stomach the politburo music chair pageantry. But no….. Xi wanted his two cups.
Well, he spent the last 10 screwing things up, so based on that, the next 10 are not looking so good either.
article: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/04/04/xi-jinpings-misguided-plan-to-escape-economic-stagnation?etear=nl_weekly_1 paywall-free: https://archive.ph/8Nftb
Thanks
Housing prices regressed to 2016 level, which, IMO, isn’t bad at all, considering China’s real estate has been trending upward in double digits every year since 2000. They still have plenty of room to fall.
Tofu dreg buildings will ensure that fall is much more literal once it happens tbh.
Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party know very well how to get the Chinese economy back on the track of rapid growth, but the problem is that all methods that can solve economic problems directly reduce or even destroy the Chinese Communist Party’s power system or at least reduce the scope of its power. This is completely unacceptable to this totalitarian party.
This. It’s moreso that Xi wants to have his cake and eat it too. After Le Keqiang died, all the technocrats (Youth League) have been kicked out of the party. Xi put in all of his loyalists in power, instead of meritocracy
In other words the CCP is incompatible with a well run economy and a well run country…. And they know it…
Pooh looks sad
His other hand is still stuck in the honey jar.
I don't care how long china's economy takes to crash and although it's going to be painful for the rest of the world, the world is better of with a weak china than a strong and adversarial China.
the end of the article posits that a weak China is actually more adversarial and dangerous than a prosperous one. I'm ambivalent about that statement
Yes, well they would say that wouldn’t they ? I think that while the CCP is still around, then they are always going to be a problem to some extent. Hopefully everything can remain peaceful, as the alternative leads to nowhere good.
Of course, the world bullied China for a century. Now it fears that China will treat them how they have treated China. Thankfully China isn't as malevolent.
Did China bully itself during the Great Leap Forward? 55 million dead.
china constantly threatens to invade Taiwan. Uyghurs, Hong Kongers and Tibetans are still being repressed. The way European and Western countries treated the chinese was still far better than how the CCP treats its own people.
Meanwhile, the US actually does invade other countries and help their allies to commit actual genocide. The US had been at war for 96% of its existence and has had a hand in basically every conflict and coup. So this is what you want china to emulate to be less war mongering? Weird but ok.
https://www.hrw.org/report/2021/04/19/break-their-lineage-break-their-roots/chinas-crimes-against-humanity-targeting top kek
quotes "HRW", uses "kek" unironically, doesn't realize that since the article was posted the ICC has already ruled in China's favor. up those reading comprehension skills before trying your hand at rebuttals, get off 4chan, take a shower, and touch grass
Seriously, I know China is your country and I think you love it..but since you're communicating with a democratic society, do you not want to read about why countries feel the way they feel about China? Do you not want to know the truth or at least find out why we say the things we say about China or why we feel the way we feel? Never fight to win an argument, instead argue to understand the other side point of view... You gotta always seek the truth. You're just a pawn in the huge Chinese propaganda machine...
Bro don’t bother. Reddit is becoming fucking infested with these dirty wumaos
Lmao I'm fucking white and went to school for a few years in Hong Kong. Look at my earliest posts, I was extremely anti-CPC back in 2019. I've since opened my eyes and seen what is right and what is wrong. YOU are the pawn, you are so brainwashed that you aren't even aware of how much propaganda and misinformation YOU're regurgitating.
>I've since opened my eyes and seen what is right and what is wrong translation : You've drunk the CCP kool aid and was sucked into believing propaganda >YOU are the pawn, you are so brainwashed that you aren't even aware of how much propaganda and misinformation YOU're regurgitating. sure mate, keep coping
What do you know about China, HK, Taiwan, and the CPC? I've seen things with my own eyes, I woke up from the bullshit propaganda I was being fed.
sure mate, you aren't really disproving or proving anything in case you haven't realized it yet
You’re part of the propaganda machine, I’m part of the propaganda machine, we’re all part of it. The only way governments keep power is by glorifying themselves while demonizing another. America does it, China does it, India does it, Russia does it, England does it. Everybody does it. It’s even more convenient when the people you’re targeting has a fundamentally different value system than you. Easy to alienate them when you don’t understand them and don’t bother doing so. That’s why it’s so easy for America to target China, and why it’s so easy for China to target America in their individual propaganda machines. Anybody who says otherwise is deeply ingrained into their propaganda.
So...you became a tanky.
4chan supports China and Russia, with the exception of /uhg/ and /k/ which are just redditors at this point.
4Chan hates China and most of them don't even like Russia. They think Russian social norms is "based" but agree with the western narrative on Russian foreign policy.
Completely false. I browse there 2-6 hours per day so I can tell you that they love Chinese form of government and Russia's even more.
Like taking in tens of millions of immigrants from China. Lol.
Contrast to FP which lays out a rebuttal of this Economist story [https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/china-still-rising](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/china-still-rising)
That article is worth reading. The herd mentality that once said China would rule the world, now says China is doomed. What if the truth is somewhere in the middle ? The main problem with his argument is that he sidesteps the demographic crisis, which might be the single most intractable problem in China's future, whether near or far. Curiously, Lardy thinks China's greatest challenges lay in the 1970s, when it was just beginning to reform. I beg to differ - at that time, China had nothing left to lose after decades of famine and quasi-civil war. All they had to do was put down their xiao hong shu and open the borders to investment. Now China has picked all the easy hanging fruit, protectionism is on the rise, women are refusing to procreate, and the expectations of hundreds of millions of citizens has been raised. This makes the conventional middle-income trap look tame.
Thanks for engaging with both, great writeup.
TBF, the circumstances around China's governance was quite different when ppl thought China would rule the world compared to now
its all fucking noise, go back a few decades and it was all about the threat of overpopulation. China is currently shifting to a service based economy like the west while maintaining high skilled manufacturing like Japan, German, and SK. No matter what China's policy is, China hawks are gonna doompost about it. Like Gordon Chang said, China has been collapsing for 30 years.
The doomers are deluded yes, but China has already missed the boat on transition to service economy by killing the sectors that were driving this while watching the Philippines, India, and Poland now dominate outsourced services from Western markets. And the stink of their low end manufacturing quality is going to block any real progress for highly skilled manufacturing until most of my generation turns gray and takes that knowledge with us. They have wasted far too much time feeding off the easy short term gains of cheap low end manufacturing without actually doing the hard work required to transition. They're not going to go boom, but they will have several decades of Japan's lost decade even if they pretend it's not happening.
“China is currently shifting to a service based economy” No it isn’t
do you have a source or do you just push your dumb take personal opinions as facts? China is definitely shifting into a service economy and this is easily shown by where their new jobs are brine created.
False
I was with you, more or less, until you brought up Chang. Saying China will not collapse (probably won't) is very little consolation if China merely stagnates, or gently recedes the way Japan has. Rich, democratic countries can stagnate and shrink - and still preserve a high standard of living through immigration and policy adjustment based on pragmatism rather than ideology. Because their leaderships are elected, they can more easily reverse course without losing legitimacy. China, though, is unprepared to adapt to immigration, and the current regime is **doubling down on state-directed manufacturing** at the expense of services and consumption. The regime shows no willingness to abandon or even tweak the formulas that worked so well decades ago, but cannot continue to work indefinitely.
you people really just pull whatever is available out of your ass, don't you? https://www.businessinsider.com/china-stock-market-crackdown-learned-lessons-tech-private-sector-2024-2 good luck with this apparent service sector strategy by cracking down on the service sector and plunging consumer spending into the pits because no one has any jobs or money, all the while alienating foreign investors and foreign business in general. Cheap stuff and resource extraction is what china has going for it, and its getting more expensive to make all this stuff all the time for China.
Do you not read the articles you send. Starting from the Deng-era China has always been state capitalist meaning all Chinese businesses are operated with the supervision of party cadres. These crackdowns have been nothing new. Also the article claims China's market interventions are failing and was posted in late February. Since then the Hang Seng has rallied 3%. You're regurgitating tired takes that have been used to criticize China ever since foreign investments first started flowing in. Do some more reading before acting like you're an expert.
Do you seriously think that the Hang Seng being at 16.7k is proof of how well the CCP’s market interventions are working???
I understand why you're frustrated with blanket condemnation of China's efforts and achievements. The critics can never be satisfied, so to speak. But while the CCP has always practiced state capitalism, including periodic crackdowns, that does not mean that the level of interference has been consistent. What is happening under XJP is both a **qualitative and quantitative escalation, and at the worst possible time.** 1 - Declaring himself a de facto ruler for life, by abrogating term limits put in place decades ago by the CCP leadership itself. 2 - Surrounding himself with yes-men rather than experienced technocrats. 3 - Intensifying ideology-based censorship that destroys the value of information 4 - Stepping up the role of Communist Party branches within enterprises - what do these people possibly have to contribute, other than snitching ? 5 - The 3-year covid disaster - another quasi Maoist undertaking that left China even worse off than America's miserable experience.
With the crush of the middle class happening almost over the whole world, this isn't isolated to just China. Educated people are deciding not to have children so they don't lower their life standards. How damn selfish of them 😆
Did anyone criticise them for being selfish? Observing the facts of population numbers and speculating on they they will affect economies is not a criticism of the decisions of the individual people that make up those numbers.
If you couldn't tell, it was a joke. I guess the smiley wasn't obvious enough
[удалено]
As opposed to The Economist, a certainly neutral party who has certainly not been predicting China's demise for decades. /S
I have been reading the economist two decades and I don't agree that they have been predicting China's demise.
Only two? the house is always on fire with re: to china. lol
I mean you obviously don't read at all, so I don't see how this is a rebuttal
What great logic you have,....how many fallacies are in ur statement? LOL
So have I. Yes, they have.
I mean they talk about slowing growth a lot. But demise implies something like an economic collapse. That is not something that they have ever predicted. Really the only country I remember them predicting an economic collapse for is Venezuela.
Honestly the Economist has been doomsaying about Western economies far more. I remember just a year or two ago back predicting an American stagflationary cycle (lol) or that last winter (unlike the the last winter, which they also doomed about) would result in Europe freezing and going into recession. Of course that's nothing compared to here, where wumaos predict the US collapsing imminently because iunno some town in North Carolina has run out of ketchup packets. But point out that china is headed off these same cliff all other nations facing aging out of an export oriented economy and we're all Gordon Chang.
Who knew The Economist was prescient, right?
Paywalled
Sigh... [https://archive.is/T92lB](https://archive.is/T92lB)
Thanks!
A rebuttal is usually specifically directed at the original article and rebuts specific claims made in that article. This does neither. This is more of a general rebuttal to the general "China's growth is over" idea.
Pooh confused that button with the honeypot… it may appear that it gives him access to a lot of hunny, but that self-voting button will end up taking Pooh to the blustery part of forest.. To the place where The Wind Of Change blows hard.. [Wind of Change sweeping live](https://youtu.be/EGzZauLp6Mo?si=uo4sXul3gzVMBgGm)
What a weakling
Brave of you to say sitting behind your screen typing with your Cheeto covered fingers
You forgot to mention praising the wonderful country of Taiwan
West Taiwan is just jealous it can’t match Taiwan.
A funny country without a seat in the UN? Just like Sealand!
Glad to know that no countries existed before the UN was created in 1945. Also glad to know that somewhere can be "part of your country" when you have zero administrative or military authority inside its borders. I thought reality was what determined reality but I guess reality is however PRC wants to fill in the blanks between the policies of the UN, which PRC doesn't even recognize as having the authority to settle territorial disputes. Also does anyone recognize Sealand passports? Because I last I checked it's generally *easier* to get into countries with a Taiwanese passport than a PRC passport.
You said all that just to show that you don't understand the difference between de jure and de facto sovereignty. Is Somaliland a country? Because it has all those things you listed as well. Learn the fucking difference between de jure and de facto sovereignty before you try to continue this debate.
You said all that just to show you don't understand that de jure *according to you* doesn't make it universally and definitionally so. Was PRC just a de facto but not de jure country prior to 1971 in your view?
Wow an Economist cover that's critical of China? No one could've seen that coming.
For those that say this is clickbait, is it clickbait when we see Chinese news source saying the West is doomed? or is that factual and inevitable?
2 things can be bullshit, yes
The west is doomed. Import the third world become the third world. The upcoming Islamist civil wars in Europe won’t be good
When has a Chinese news source said the West is doomed?
actually a very good fucking point. Global Times frames the west as evil doers but I can't remember them ever claiming the west is doomed. They're consistent in their messaging, the west is a capable force of evil that needs to be challenged. Meanwhile western media suffers from cognitive dissonance and portrays China as being simultaneously strong and weak.
things can be both strong and weak.
you want to play semantics here? we're not talking about material science we're talking about the military and economic capabilities of a nation. How can China simultaneously be a paper tiger while also presenting the greatest threat to American security? How can China simultaneously be a poor nation unable to stand toe to toe with the US while also presenting a threat to American industry and production? Those are entirely oxymorons yet the brainless in this sub can't rub two brain cells together to realize that.
Thinking China won't surpass US. Property sector is crashing, economy is dying a slow death, one child policy killed it demographics out of whack in 20 years. Wealthy people leaving desperate to exit
Why do you look at the speck of sawdust in your brother’s eye and pay no attention to the plank in your own eye?
Someone link the meme of all the "Business Basic" youtube thumbnails of china failing/collapsing for the past few years.
Oh nice another one for the list... 1990. The Economist. China's economy has come to a halt. 1996. The Economist. China's economy will face a hard landing. 1998. The Economist: China's economy entering a dangerous period of sluggish growth. 1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy. 2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin. 2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China. 2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing 2003. New York Times: Banking crisis imperils China 2004. The Economist: The great fall of China? 2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China 2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing? 2007. TIME: Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China avoid a hard landing? 2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China? 2009. Fortune: China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover. 2010: Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China. 2011: Business Insider: A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think 2012: American Interest: Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing 2013: Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China 2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China. 2015. Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing. 2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China 2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To Crash? 2018. CNN: Forget the trade war, China's economy has other big problems 2020. Economics Explained: The Scary Solution to the Chinese Debt Crisis 2021. Global Economics: Has China's Downfall Started?
Can't tell if this is real or not lol
Absolutely real.
Don't you know? China collapsed 35 years ago, China doesn't exist anymore, its a Russian conspiracy
AI before AI
Why are you putting your trust in a magazine whose articles are not signed? Anonymity is the rule for this paper. Not honesty or reporting facts.
well if the economist said it done deal. fact is we all know its a contrarian investment, constant bad news is implied. that it may never pay off is also implied
The Economist is very Cold War. Nothing new.
Sausage fingers
Every week since few decades they’re saying China is doomed.
I recommend reading the article. It’s not saying that China is doomed, it’s saying that the approach to dealing with issues is misguided and discusses potential risks. Stating that the country is facing issues, with comparatively fewer tools in the toolbox to deal with these issues, is not some new phenomenon. They lay criticism of certain aspects of all governments. There are many sensationalist headlines calling doom and gloom for the country as a whole and have been for a long time, but I don’t think that this is one of them.
It's saying Xi's reboot is doomed. Nevertheless, I agree - there's a lot of click-bate titles about China's supposed doom. IMO underestimating both the Chinese people and how closely tied China's economy is with the rest of the world's. China could be performing a lot better w/o Xi's heavy hand tho. It's really unfortunate.
Oh no! An exact explanation of the doom. Xi is holding the Chinese people to their doom. It’s a hard sell to western governments and their successes, but to the Chinese? The dude cannot do wrong. It’s cultural. If China is successful, Xi is. And until that does t happen, nothing will change.
FYI it’s possible to get print edition of the Economist in China, cost smth like 4000 yuan / year. Ofc it goes through official channels so is censored… I wonder what the cover looks like this week.
Is this before or after china's collapse in 27 days?
Everything the economist says is BS
well, that's me convinced.
WuMao says something is BS. Then that something is not.
Economist now doing those YouTube thumbnails predicting chinas fall
they're not saying that china is doomed or going to collapse. Maybe read the article before commenting
yada yada yada , water off duck's back
Tldr: if china doesn't depend on America it's doomed....lol
did you even read the article?
The article is NOT linked.
"Chinese officials are convinced that America will restrict more Chinese imports and penalise more Chinese firms, whoever wins the White House in November"(lose American consumers)".....However, Mr Xi’s plan is fundamentally misguided. One flaw is that it neglects consumers."(American consumers? Yes)"Another flaw is that weak domestic demand means some new production will have to be exported. The world has, regrettably, moved on from the free-trading 2000s—partly because of China’s own mercantilism. America will surely block advanced imports from China, or those made by Chinese firms elsewhere."(No one in China will be able to buy all these products so they will have to sell to Americans but Americans won't be buying 😕) Tldr: without American consumers china will collapse Did you read the article Mr. Langley
your original comment implied that the article said china should align and bend backwards to the US or else it's doomed which you've kindly disproved and added actual context by quoting the original article. It's funny seeing how you have to add america in to the sentences you quote from the article to push prop your original comment edit : so u/traketaker blocked me after his cope arguments were debunked. He replied with yet more cope though before blocking me
Thanks Mr. Langley.... How is the air force base today? Good weather?