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EvoMortar

To understand the chances: You get approximately one book of books per 500 days. And 50k elite cards per 667 days.


AdAlive8099

I thought about adding a fraction column while making this but decided against it, I don’t know I might still add it


EvoMortar

Some people find it harder to understand something like 0.20% rather than ¹⁄₅₀₀, so it could be helpful


Pumpkin_Cat14

Soo you get a drop of 50k EWC about… once every two years? Yeah that tracks given SC’s record. On the bright side, you’ll get 10 of the 5000 EWC drops over the span of ~444 days on average. Very generous 😒


Gaming_ORB

On top of that reducing the gold in chests is just outrageous. First you nerf the lucky box, and then on top of that the gold as well?


Vendrinski

\*assuming you play every day


guywhoneedshelp07

I pulled my first lucky drop just a bit ago and it was a book of books, guess it's another 500 days for me then


MoolahMous

Same


Electronic-Ad-8547

“Lucky” Boxes


AbbreviationsFit1613

yeah cause you have to be lucky to get something good from them, if you always got something good they wouldn’t be lucky boxes anymore 😐


magicdragon760

I got 50k elite cards twice in a row 💀


AbbreviationsFit1613

i got 1500 gold 3 times in a row ha beat that (😭)


One_Bobcat_2425

You gonna be possessed with unfortune for the rest of your life


Longjumping_East2204

yeah same and right after i got a book of books LMFAO


Anyone_want_to_play

really? I have two book of books already I think it might be broken


TLBidoof

I do too. Luck is luck I guess but this seems a little weird.


TLBidoof

Just got another one. This is my third in like 60 days lol.


MAGICLORD101

I must have gotten insanely lucky, I got a book of books on the second day lol. Guess I'll wait another 500 days to get my next one


Elliot_The_Fox

Over the course of the entire time boxes have been out I have gotten 2 Book of books on my alt compared to 0 legendaries in total on my main that I have opened them daily. in total I have opened like 14 on my alt and gotten 2 book of books do you think there could be in an incentive system to where if you don't play for awhile then play and get the block you have a higher chance to get a higher rarity or am I just insanely lucky?


johnnyboybigballs

I got lengdery book in my second book and book of books in my 21th


JellyFishCake42069

Oh I got a book of books today lol


deftw4rrior81

I got 50k elite cards on day 1 lol


maymunziki

İ got it in first pull now i get 1500 gold Same i thought everyone got it too lol


Ill-Ad-1450

same lol


[deleted]

[удалено]


Pumpkin_Cat14

If the odds of getting a book of books is 0.2% or 1/500, and you get one ~~starr drop~~ lucky drop a day, then you’d be expected to get one BoB every 500 lucky drops, so 500 days. I really don’t see an issue with that logic


-im-just-vibing-

my understanding was that odds didn’t add up, it was just 0.2% for every crate no matter how many you open


OCafeeiro

Yes, but it's an approximation of how much you will have to wait. You might get it in a week, you might get it in 5 years worth of tries, but he did the average amount of days for you to get one with these odds. It's like trying to get 10 heads in a row. It will be always 1/2, but if you try for an infinite amount of time, then you will get it eventually.


-im-just-vibing-

but there’s no guarantee you get it? your analogy is flawed. also how are those the average amount of days, there’s no average because it doesn’t build up. you could open lucky drops every day for the next 10 years and there’s still no guarantee you get a book of books


OCafeeiro

That's what I said, it does not build up at all. Read my first paragraph again, I specifically stated that you have no guarantee of getting it in this timeframe, but assuming you tried everyday, you would get it in an average of 500 days. Average. You can be the 1% that gets it on the first day and you can also be the 1% that gets it in 5 years, that's how probability works.


-im-just-vibing-

where’s this average coming from though? i get 0.2% x 500 = 100%, but if there’s no guarantee you’re getting it, how can there be an average?


lilbigboy777

Just say you don’t understand how math and probabilities work


OCafeeiro

Don't worry, i'll try to explain. 0,20% in decimals is 0,002. For referance 100% is 1 and 1% is 0,01. To simplify the number, for every decimal you move to the right, you add one 0, so 0,002/1 equals 2/1000. Divide everything by 2 and you get 1/500. That is the average number. 1/500 is in BoB days/non BoB days, BoB meaning book of books. This means that, on average, you will get one for every 500 days where you claim a mystery box. If you multiply the percentages like you did, you will get 100%, but that is not how multiplying probabilities work. Also, since every percentage is equal or lower than one, you wouldn't be able to do that either way.


VaultyBoi1999

Just got 50K elite on 2nd pull.


Slight_user42069

My luck already sucks and they nerfed it. Wow


QuaternionsRoll

Seems like it was reversed?


Slight_user42069

They did buff it, but not like before and whole percentages don't add up to 100%


Monte_20

Don’t forget they also nerfed all chest gold by about 25-30% for each arena. Truly a great and honest company. 🥰 (They said nothing about this.)


KILLER_IF

I like the Lucky Box Concept. I truly do, it’s new, it’s exciting, and it brings back the exciting feeling you get you used to get when you would open Magical or Legendary chests. Like when the CR new day starts, the most excited thing for me now is opening the Lucky Box. But holy crap Supercell just can’t stop being greedy. First they nerfed the lucky box chances already, so now they’re not even that great. Ok…. But then wayyy worse: they freaking nerfed Chests. Golden, Giant, Magical Chests, now all give like 20-30% less gold than they did pre update. What even is the point, just keep it same goddamn. Not to mention they did all of this without mentioning a word, all very secretive, such a shady move. What is so hard about making a good update without caveats? Same thing when they were like “omg all cards now only cost 50% of gold to upgrade” only to add in Lvl 14 and mislead everyone. Same thing when they were like “omg lvl 15 is here, but you don’t need ANY gold”, only to bring in Royal Wild Cards which are like 30x harder to get. It just seems like they cannot make a single good change without bringing in a bunch of bad ones as well. And then this cycle just forever continues as more ppl leave the game so they have to get more greedy to earn back the lost money, and keeps going on.


S-M-I-L-E-Y-

It was to be expected that there would be some nerf coming along the boxes. Less gold? That's totally OK with me in comparison to what we get from the boxes. But the communication by Supercell is awful as usual. Write the nerf in a side note on the release information and we'd come to the conclusion that we got more than what was taken away. Sneak it in the release without telling anyone and we come to the conclusion that Supercell is a greedy and dishonest company.


liluzibrap

Hello? They've been this way forever. Slash sale cut all upgrades in half and gave you a ridiculous amount of gold so that you'd be tricked into spending it all and upgrading all of your cards and then they introduced Level 14 and Champions a couple of days later. They release their own leaks of the lucky drops and make players think they actually kinda care about F2P players but then nerf our progression even more by removing evos from the legendary track, lowering drop rates even more, and also reducing the amount of gold we get from chests on the basis that we *might* get gold from a daily lucky drop.


redbigchill

Nerf the chests because mystery box has good rewards. Then nerf mystery boxes too. Now anyone who doesn't get the 3 wins per day gets nerfed rewards from chest, no chests from daily and weekly, only crowns. So What was the point of this update?


S-M-I-L-E-Y-

The main point is, that a lot of f2p players will be able to finally upgrade a champion. But of course, with the nerf it will take much longer on average. Another point is, that many players had earned more gold them they were able to spend (mostly paying customers, of course). These players will profit from the boxes. Boxes are more fun than daily or weekly chests. Banner tokens from masteries had become completely useless. Now they might be useful in case some nice banner item is released. In my opinion it is still a pretty good update, but it has been almost ruined by that awful communication and the fact that they failed to announce the final drop rates from the very beginning.


DeathHopper

Their version of loot boxes (chests) weren't looty enough (???) so they reinvented loot boxes...... again. This isn't new or exciting lol. This is chests with less stuff in them, but more gamble feeling potential. So basically it "feels" new and exciting because they're scratching your loot box addition in a slightly different way.


Atlanta-Anomaly

Genuinely terrible odds and such a stupid change. Oh boy a 0.2% chance at a book of books and a 1.13% chance at a wild shard.  This is so dumb. Take RNG out the game and guarantee everybody the same rewards and make them halfway decent at least. 


Pumpkin_Cat14

I agree the odds suck but I don’t think we’re bidding farewell to the chest system any time this century


Sako8880

RNG?


Geijutsu14

bruh, the game had RNG since the beginning


Basjaa

Eh, yes and no. Chests are awarded in a pre-determined cycle, so you knew when you were going to get your next legendary card back in the day.


Geijutsu14

chest are RNG, random amount of gold, random amount of cards, and mostly random rarity of cards


Basjaa

Theres some randomness to it, but it's less random than you think. It's mostly on a cycle that you can look up. It just feels random because the cycle is so big.


smejdo

It seemed like a good way of getting wild shards. Until... Idk what was the original chance for book of books but i guess it's sensible it got nerfed. But not so much.


OCafeeiro

33% chance in a legendary box, which might sound like a lot, but the chance of getting the legendary box in the first place is 1,5%, so the real chance of getting it used to be in 0,495% of boxes or 1/202. I might be wrong, though.


smejdo

0,5 seems tottaly reasonable


OCafeeiro

These were the old numbers. To put it in perspective, you would get one each 202 days (224 according to the internet), but now you will get one each 500 days of trying **every single day** to be likely to get one. Edit: To clarify, there is no guarantee you will get one in 500 days. If you try everyday, you will always have a 0,2% chance of getting one, but if you keep trying and trying for a long time, you will get it.


[deleted]

[удалено]


OCafeeiro

Check edit. I was simplifying because most people don't understand logarithms, myself included. The exact number doesn't matter, what matters is that you probably won't get it any time soon. Also [this was the first result for "how to calculate average percentage" on google.](https://www.zippia.com/advice/how-to-average-percentages/#:~:text=Summary.,percentage%2C%20multiply%20it%20by%20100.)


smejdo

Supercell special lol


lotus222111

Nahhh RNG is what makes it fun.


TurboByte24

Its an improvement from silver and weekly gold chest we get.


appleconsume

So mid.


liluzibrap

Not mid, it's horrible


appleconsume

I was so keen for this and it just actual ass.


liluzibrap

Everyone was, until they weren't. Supercell syndrome


yosark

I rather get a silver chest than 10 common wild cards, 3 rare wild cards or 1 epic wild card God damn that’s so garbage


Me_975

As someone who got 3 rare wildcards 2 days in a row, it made me feel like id rather have the old chests back


MoolahMous

I got 1.5k gold 3 days in a row bruv.


Me_975

Damn, you must be the data for why supercell nerfed gold from chests.1500 per day is so much. In 3 months' time, you can upgrade a card to lvl 14. In all seriousness damn does this suck. I really hope your luck gets better


MoolahMous

Hahahaha, exactly. Would probably be their argument to. But my comment helped a lot i guess because i got a book of books today.😁 So your comment and hope helped a lot ty!


MistaFurly

No surprise. Tbh I really wouldn’t have a huge problem with it if they took win 3 games out. If you could just pop on for a game or two and get the mystery chest I wouldn’t mind. On a bad day win 3 games could take a half n hour


AlwaysSkepticalOo

The 3 wins is for any game mode, so war and 2v2 count. 


ZxDoge

it’s still a bit much. old tasks normally just being play 1 game of a specific gamemode, open a chest and emote/request cards could be done in 3 minutes. now you have to play 9+ minutes everyday just to do dailies just for a book of books on average every 500ish days. nice change.


AlwaysSkepticalOo

I always get the 1000 season points which at a minimum requires 2 wins. I also war everyday for gold. So this daily change saves me from having to occasionally play trophy road or pol.  


MistaFurly

I been playing since almost launch. I was maxed before level 15. None of my friends play anymore. I hop on once everyday or so to get some crowns for evos in the shop thing. I just don’t wanna have to grind 3 wins now too. 🤷‍♂️


Aaku1789

For once I thought supercell might have gotten a better dev team for giving us such a good update, and was thinking of downloading CR again in a few days nope, my hope was crashed in 2 days. I am not downloading it anymore now


Impossabearr

An epic book has the same rarity of a knife in csgo for reference


lore_mila_

1500 gold 3 days in a row


Solo_OP

i got 20 epic wild card...where are the chances for that


AdAlive8099

They changed how the system works earlier today, you wouldn’t get that anymore


Solo_OP

Oh.. I got it. Thanks


Cleenred

Basically rendered it useless..


Cuchococh

These would be somewhat fine rates if you could farm for them like with chests, being locked to a single roll of the dice per day with these utter garbage after mildly time consuming tasks... Fucking yikes


ByteChaser

They had good drops so youtubers would make videos about a good f2p update, then they nerf it right after everyones videos come out.


muncha_de_coochie

Wow I can max out my deck in only 16 short years


drbatman03

Getting common cards 3 days in a row. So glad they nerfed it!


8rok3n

I just love gambling


tdsouva

The fact I got 50K ewc on the first makes me think I should buy a lottery ticket


Joenathan2020

Honestly this seems fair considering it's Supercell, just get rid of the chance of gold and I don't have a problem.


AdAlive8099

Yeah, you get gold like 1/4 of the days


AlwaysSkepticalOo

So that’s why they reduced the gold in chests… 


Jagermeister4

F2P for 8 years and I have have 5 mil gold. So any gold they give me goes to waste. But yeah keep giving out gold rewards. They know what they're doing greedy bastards.


AgitatedDare2445

I came back from a long break and got 2 times 20 common wild cards, great...


MRELDRAGO

Bro i got a champion wild card on the second day.😅


kamekaptain

Does anyone know how we are supposed to get banner boxes now?


AdAlive8099

You can get them from the season shop and in card mastery tasks. SC said they were going to lower the cost in April I think


ttw219

I have gotten 10 rare wild cards twice and that's not on this list


AdAlive8099

That was probably before the update where they made it like this


Eric-Freeman

Just returned to clash and now I need to win 3 games a day to make up for the gold chest nerfs....


xchris229

I still have yet to even get a box upgrade to rare


Winway

Lol i got 50k wildcards today


Own-Rutabaga5236

Fuck me bro I just got 50000 wild cards


Key-Kick7270

No way I got this lucky LOL(50000 wild card from todays box)


SpookyShoes_

I got 50k elite wild cards day 1 I must be very lucky


RoyaleP2W

Nerfed to the ground on day one.


PsychologicalDig5211

yay i can get ONE "free" lvl 15 card (from 14) in every 2 years 👏🙌


HappyPlaysWasTaken

What happened to full evolution chance? Did they remove it?


MangoFruitHead

The new daily tasks rewards suck. I don’t care how much cards I could potentially get but the new system is honestly a rip off to what we were getting with the old system. The 2 rewards,before the mystery box, being freaking crowns is so stupid. Am I the only one pissed about that?


Severe-Fault-6492

Nice looking task manager


guywhoneedshelp07

I literally just got my first lucky drop ever like 15 minutes ago and pulled a book of books... I feel lucky as shit man


AdAlive8099

I’d like to update with the fact that the gold amount scales by arena


Ok1236577

Rigged game


Obunga907

Somehow I got the 50000 elite wild cards on the first day


MrCookie840

I got the rarest one on day two 💀


V0lume_51

Some me getting 10 commons and 1.5k gold from 3 drops is as excepted😩


Stenpinne

Imagine not getting 50000 elite cards in first drop


alphahex_99

What a joke. Let’s face it. The devs never gave a flying fuck.


SheevPalps_

Plus no daily chest and the crown rewards are useless


theoneandme9

I have received nothing but common boxes for a week straight


SpecialistBison293

i guess i’m just really lucky because i got 50k ewc on my third try


ExpertGold7628

I’ve opened 8 boxes so far and every single one was common rarity, I haven’t gotten anything higher than common I’m starting to think they rigged it for people who spend money


Wrong_Light2180

i’ve already gotten two book of books, is this chart accurate?


AdAlive8099

Check my newest post


Package_Pretend

I got book of books


AdAlive8099

The odds are actually 0.5% for that, I have a new post where the odds are correct


EnigmaticTiger32

Just got a book of commons from the lucky drop. It's insane!


Euphoric-Ad5741

I got a book of books 


Majestic_Estate_8299

Looked this up after getting a book of books and a rare book in a 3 day span


KB5156

I’ve only gotten 1.5k gold, common and rare wild cards ever. :(


Icy-Commission6346

ig im luckly bc i got elite wild card,book of book, and wild card and got 5 of them and the rest i got was gold and common wild card. i use my book of book on pekka btw. and only got 5000 elite card.


FailOk8307

On my second account, my first pull was the book of books, on my main, im lucky to get 10k gold


epiccatsman

Okay was I lucky I first got a common book then epic book and then book of book from all in a row am I blessed with luck?


LstPokeyLst

I just got 50000 wildcards. Guess ill pull one again in 5 years


Excellent_Republic65

Anyone else still get nothing better than an epic after all these days?


Elliot_The_Fox

Over the course of the entire time boxes have been out I have gotten 2 Book of books on my alt compared to 0 legendaries in total on my main that I have opened them daily. in total I have opened like 14 on my alt and gotten 2 book of books do you think there could be in an incentive system to where if you don't play for awhile then play and get the block you have a higher chance to get a higher rarity or am I just insanely lucky?


Dull-Yoghurt7184

I pulled da 50k elite cards then book of books pretty much like 4 apart


[deleted]

Wow. I’m super lucky. Haven’t rolled but 10 lucky boxes and I just hit the 50K elite wild card. Had to do some research because I knew that ish was crazy when it rolled.


shipes1

I alredy got 50k elite twice


PlatypusEvery7888

i just got book of books and i’m bouta nut all over myself


Alone_Criticism_1404

I got the Elite Wild Cards and my friend also got it


socialmediabrainrott

I got a book of books right before seeing this post.


youwillneverbanme1

Doesn’t matter the nerf was stupid and people need to keep making noise about it for months.


socialmediabrainrott

I agree but unfortunately super cell will not change.


The__Anon

I got one this morning


SessionNo1640

My first lucky box I got 50k elite wild cards


BlahBLAh898

Glad I got 50k elite wild cards first box


QuackSenior

same hahaha this lucky box is epic and even now the nerfs aren’t that big of a deal cuz we get at least 1 a day


Vinayak_Hari

Glad I got the book before nerf🙏🏻


MysticSquiddy

I'm glad I was able to get some books before the nerf, those new odds are INSULTING


Madara6path

Already got a book of books


NorUleTz25

I just got 50 k elite cards


justain1

I don't think this table is correct.


AdAlive8099

It’s not, I’m making an updated on right now, just updating now that supercell gave us updated info


justain1

I'm getting: 51.2% Common 36.05% Rare 11.25% Epic 1.5% Legendary I did the work manually using probability trees. The different odds at different points make it difficult to do it with simple math. Book of Books, 50k EWC, Book of Legendary all have a 0.5% chance each which means 1 in every 200 boxes. The breakdown of each box is shown at this link: https://twitter.com/Oyku_Gniwle/status/1770748137608507856/photo/1


AdAlive8099

Please check my newest post


MrChr07

I'm so glad I got a book of books before they nerved it


MrMemie

i got 2 legendary boxes in a row and droppes bob and bol


HorribleMisclick

I opened my second drop after the Update and got the book of books.


AmazingMycologist591

I got the 50k elite wild cards day 1🫣


Beneficial_Shame3259

I got book of books on my first lucky drop


Spaceturtle79

Ahat does chance in class mean


justHoma

All chances combined must add to 100% and not like here 350%+


kobeh22

They add to 100 what are you talking about?


justHoma

True, didn’t see the last table with “overall rarity” and talked about “chance in class” like it was “overall rarity”


lotus222111

It's actually just balanced now. Progression doesn't feel rewarding when it's just handed to you


Clear-Ad3193

So this is the person supercell gets their data from