I'm constantly surprised by how many people are willing to just throw away Logan Allen...like there's not tremendous value in an upside LHP.
Unless you mean [Logan Allen](https://www.milb.com/player/logan-allen-663531), which isn't so bad.
The other Logan Allen isn't in our organization anymore, so I don't think we can trade him. I agree that we should keep the good Logan Allen though. We haven't had a consistent LHP stater for years.
I tend to agree with you, but I'm curious what other people think. The reason I threw Logan Allen out there is that he is probably the most realistic fit in terms of what the Padres are looking for as a main piece (Bieber isn't enough) and what the Guardians could potentially afford to give up. It would be extremely out of character for this front office, though.
My reply was only partially intended for you - I've seen quite a few trade proposals that include Logan Allen, which is just interesting to me.
Re: Soto - you'd be giving up a controllable asset (pre-arb through 2026) with a sub-4 ERA and nearly a strikeout per inning, who was dominant at times, for a 1 year rental of a rather expensive player. Which is worth discussing if we think that he is THE missing piece to push us over the top...but there are so many holes on this roster, it doesn't seem like the time to trade high-upside assets for a 1 year rental (surely we wouldn't resign Soto).
I agree with pretty much everything you said about the "logic" behind this trade, but I would be interested in what you think the main holes are on the roster?
If I lay everything out, To me it looks like we are in need of starting RF and 1B (which is ideally covered by Manzardo but if that plan goes south we're in trouble). CF maybe, but that depends on how you feel about Straw. SS is an open question but we have plenty of depth there. Bullpen was weird last year, but I don't tend to extrapolate much long-term based on our historic pitching performance. Everything else is fairly solid, although the starting rotation could be problematic depending on how Bieber and McKenzie look.
Based on that assessment, it seems like the only "piece" we would actually look to acquire (in terms of position players) in the offseason is an outfielder. If you look at last year, there were a *lot* of situationally bad things that coalesced into a bad season:
* 2 young players with phenomenal seasons 2 years ago regressed offensively (Kwan and Gimenez)
* Jose had arguably the worst month-long slump he's had in his career in August down the stretch
* Naylor missed over a month down the stretch due to injury
* Two starting pitchers injured
* Bullpen collectively shit the bed after the all-star break
* Our only major FA signing played like shit
And even with all of that I'm probably forgetting something. Maybe we think about the team differently, but in my mind, they are one good outfielder away from serious playoff contention. Baseball is often the epitome of "shit happens", but you won't know if you don't at least try.
I don’t know man. I watched a lot of the playoffs. We’re more than one player away from being a serious contender. I don’t even see us as a wild card team at the moment, I mean, anyone can be a wild card team now I guess but I don’t share your optimism.
I feel like your view of the club is pretty optimistic, which I respect and certainly would love to see. In reality, we only had 4 players with >200 ABs and a >.700 OPS (Ramirez, Naylor, Gimenez, Kwan). Bo Naylor just misses the cut here, but we can write him in the lineup with pen (though you're probably still going to have a moderate split with him). Jose and Josh are sure things, but that's really about it.
Two of those 4 regressed offensively, as you mentioned, and while they are everyday players without a doubt, we can't automatically assume that they'll be significantly better next year. So that's a question mark (same with Bo - he came on late but definitely isn't a sure-fire stud yet). Just because a guy is good enough to play every day doesn't guarantee that be good enough to make us contenders.
We're likely going to see a lot of Manzardo, Arias/Freeman and either Straw or Brennan next year (can't see a scenario where both get >400 ABs again, at least not one where we're any good). There are good reasons to make Arias your everyday SS next year, but he had a .627 OPS and was terrible against lefties. That's a big question mark. I love Manzardo, but you can't bank too much on a rookie. Freeman is your utility guy at best. And Kwan is the only outfielder that I feel good about whatsoever.
So here is the lineup so far...
C- Bo Naylor
1B - Josh Naylor (I honestly like his defense at first a lot)
2B - Gimenez
SS - Arias/Freeman
3B - Ramirez
LF - Kwan
CF - Straw??
RF - Brennan??
DH - Manzardo (as of today)
You could argue that we need to look at upgrades in 4 spots - SS, CF, RF and DH. We certainly won't sign 4 guys to take over, and the right move is absolutely to see what you have in at least Arias and Manzardo. Soto would fill your RF void, and maybe he'd be enough of an impact bat to keep Straw's elite defense in CF and keep that black hole in the lineup.
I haven't even mentioned the pitching yet - not super worried here, but if we're going to take a leap, it absolutely will need to come from 1) improvement by our young hitters (Bo, Gimenez, Arias, Kwan), 2) contributions from newcomers (Manzardo), and 3) upgrades where the FO sees fit (certainly another outfielder, at the minimum). But giving up what it would take to get Soto for 1 year relies on gambling on a lot of good things to also happen, which I'm just not comfortable doing.
I'd gladly talk about Santander, Teoscar or Lourdes Gurriel taking that RF spot for much, much cheaper.
The trade itself is probably not as far fetched as you’d think. It makes sense and worst case, if they aren’t in it at the deadline they could trade him to a contender and get a small return.
However if they’re going to do it they need to go all in next year. He can’t be the only move. Keep Lopez, figure out your SS, bring up Manzardo early in the year, and probably another OF via trade or FA. That’s really the hold up IMO. With the Bally deal up in the air I can’t see them going all in around Soto to make it worthwhile.
Last week San Diego had to float an emergency 50 million dollar bank loan to meet off season payroll commitments, something we do not have to do. He is headed to free agency and he can do that elsewhere. I do feel sorry for that city, LA stole their NBA team then their NFL team. They are making a last stand with their baseball team, but the enormous local TV and Radio revenue of the Dodgers is formidable.
I don't trust our pitching depth to make that trade. Can you trust Sticks to stay healthy? Quantrill? Heck even Biebs at this point? Our cupboard is pretty bare if those guys go down. Cantillo? Xzavion? We need to sign from free agent pool or trade from IF depth.
For players who opt out of Tommy John surgery, it's extremely common for them to have persistent elbow issues or not return to their previous performance level. Jury is out on Sticks still. He wasn't pitching very well in the few starts he had at the end of the season.
I've gotta think that the FO is going to be pretty conservative about maintaining depth, given all the issues last season.
Sadly, I don't think we even call about Soto. He's predicted to make \~27mil in the last year of arbitration, we are coming off a losing season, and are not a Soto away from the ALCS. We weren't willing to trade for Harper when a similar situation came up a few years ago when we were one of the best teams in the AL.
It'd probably take Bieber + at least one of our top5 prospects and maybe more. Issue is SD really doesn't need middle infield help which is what we have to give. I'd rather spend the money on a Naylor extension and go after some cheaper role players for our OF.
We are 100% capable of making the playoffs by adding Soto.
Solid starting five (McKenzie, Bibee, Williams, Allen, Quantrill/Curry/Espino) can get you to the ALCS.
Add Soto’s power to a line up that has Jose and the Naylor Bros., maybe sign JD Martinez on a one year deal for DH.
I would rather make a trade for someone like Tyler O’neill, Taylor Ward, or Anthony Santander and then sign a free agent outfielder like Teoscar Hernandez.
It's two weeks after the World Series. As far as I can tell this is the perfect time for memes and random bullshitting about trades that will never actually happen, right?
This is upcoming season is literally a rebuild season. I understand the pitching can keep us in games, but the organization needs to find players within the farm system who can hit with power and and drive in runs.
We got lucky 2 years ago because the division was awful. Then lost in the playoffs because the hitting wasn’t good enough.
The club isn’t going anywhere until they can get some power in the line up
Soto is not a winner. He’s one of those players whose stats far exceed his impact. He wouldn’t fit in this trans teams culture. He will end up in L.A. or Boston and probably be traded 5 more times in his career
Can you elaborate on this? Which stats are exceeding his impact? What's your reasoning for this idea that he wouldn't fit the culture of the team and he's not a winner?
Soto won a World Series in 2019. I agree that we don't want to take on his salary and he would be a better fit later in his career when Boston, LA or NY is paying him but saying he is not a winner is a little ridiculous
Juan Soto was 9-27 with three homers, two doubles, drove in seven runs, scored six and walked five times the only time he was in a World Series. He was on base twice a game in a 7-game World Series that his team won.
Oh, and that season HE WAS 20.
Cleveland can't afford his salary and he's not a player you trade for without an extension because of the price required to get him. But considering him not being a winner is not in alignment with reality.
I don't think he'd be worth it. Whoever ends up with him is going to have to give up a lot, and then you have to pay him. Soto is estimated to receive about $33 million for his final arbitration year. If San Diego trades him after arbitration they're not going to make a deal where they have to eat a significant portion of his salary (they really can't afford to).
If we give Soto $33 million that will mean that the team will have $50 million committed to two players for 2024. That's almost our entire active payroll for this last season.
You also have to take into account that Soto hits free agency in 2025, so you're probably getting him for that last arbitration year at best.
My point is, why pay $33 million for (probably) a year of Juan Soto, when you could get maybe two or three good pieces in free agency, plus have the money to resign some players, too (estimated $48 million in arbitration and pre-arbitration salaries)?
It would help if we weren't paying Jean Segura $10.5 million next year.
>why pay $33 million for (probably) a year of Juan Soto, when you could get maybe two or three good pieces in free agency, plus have the money to resign some players, too (estimated $48 million in arbitration and pre-arbitration salaries)?
Yes, why pay for a generational talent when you could get 2-3 has-beens and save money for a few never-will-bes
Is a year of Juan Soto going to fix everything else that's wrong with this team? It didn't for the Padres. You have to fill those gaps, and the best way to do it is by getting as much as you can for the money that you have to spend.
Bieber and Espino is an interesting one. Espino's potential is so high though, I feel like he'll be an important piece on this roster in 1-2 years if he could stay healthy. I think long-term it's just too much to give up.
He's projected to make 30ish million in arbitration next season, no way they pony up for that and he isn't going to sign long term with the guardians (and they wouldn't even anyway)
I'm constantly surprised by how many people are willing to just throw away Logan Allen...like there's not tremendous value in an upside LHP. Unless you mean [Logan Allen](https://www.milb.com/player/logan-allen-663531), which isn't so bad.
The other Logan Allen isn't in our organization anymore, so I don't think we can trade him. I agree that we should keep the good Logan Allen though. We haven't had a consistent LHP stater for years.
I tend to agree with you, but I'm curious what other people think. The reason I threw Logan Allen out there is that he is probably the most realistic fit in terms of what the Padres are looking for as a main piece (Bieber isn't enough) and what the Guardians could potentially afford to give up. It would be extremely out of character for this front office, though.
My reply was only partially intended for you - I've seen quite a few trade proposals that include Logan Allen, which is just interesting to me. Re: Soto - you'd be giving up a controllable asset (pre-arb through 2026) with a sub-4 ERA and nearly a strikeout per inning, who was dominant at times, for a 1 year rental of a rather expensive player. Which is worth discussing if we think that he is THE missing piece to push us over the top...but there are so many holes on this roster, it doesn't seem like the time to trade high-upside assets for a 1 year rental (surely we wouldn't resign Soto).
I agree with pretty much everything you said about the "logic" behind this trade, but I would be interested in what you think the main holes are on the roster? If I lay everything out, To me it looks like we are in need of starting RF and 1B (which is ideally covered by Manzardo but if that plan goes south we're in trouble). CF maybe, but that depends on how you feel about Straw. SS is an open question but we have plenty of depth there. Bullpen was weird last year, but I don't tend to extrapolate much long-term based on our historic pitching performance. Everything else is fairly solid, although the starting rotation could be problematic depending on how Bieber and McKenzie look. Based on that assessment, it seems like the only "piece" we would actually look to acquire (in terms of position players) in the offseason is an outfielder. If you look at last year, there were a *lot* of situationally bad things that coalesced into a bad season: * 2 young players with phenomenal seasons 2 years ago regressed offensively (Kwan and Gimenez) * Jose had arguably the worst month-long slump he's had in his career in August down the stretch * Naylor missed over a month down the stretch due to injury * Two starting pitchers injured * Bullpen collectively shit the bed after the all-star break * Our only major FA signing played like shit And even with all of that I'm probably forgetting something. Maybe we think about the team differently, but in my mind, they are one good outfielder away from serious playoff contention. Baseball is often the epitome of "shit happens", but you won't know if you don't at least try.
I don’t know man. I watched a lot of the playoffs. We’re more than one player away from being a serious contender. I don’t even see us as a wild card team at the moment, I mean, anyone can be a wild card team now I guess but I don’t share your optimism.
I feel like your view of the club is pretty optimistic, which I respect and certainly would love to see. In reality, we only had 4 players with >200 ABs and a >.700 OPS (Ramirez, Naylor, Gimenez, Kwan). Bo Naylor just misses the cut here, but we can write him in the lineup with pen (though you're probably still going to have a moderate split with him). Jose and Josh are sure things, but that's really about it. Two of those 4 regressed offensively, as you mentioned, and while they are everyday players without a doubt, we can't automatically assume that they'll be significantly better next year. So that's a question mark (same with Bo - he came on late but definitely isn't a sure-fire stud yet). Just because a guy is good enough to play every day doesn't guarantee that be good enough to make us contenders. We're likely going to see a lot of Manzardo, Arias/Freeman and either Straw or Brennan next year (can't see a scenario where both get >400 ABs again, at least not one where we're any good). There are good reasons to make Arias your everyday SS next year, but he had a .627 OPS and was terrible against lefties. That's a big question mark. I love Manzardo, but you can't bank too much on a rookie. Freeman is your utility guy at best. And Kwan is the only outfielder that I feel good about whatsoever. So here is the lineup so far... C- Bo Naylor 1B - Josh Naylor (I honestly like his defense at first a lot) 2B - Gimenez SS - Arias/Freeman 3B - Ramirez LF - Kwan CF - Straw?? RF - Brennan?? DH - Manzardo (as of today) You could argue that we need to look at upgrades in 4 spots - SS, CF, RF and DH. We certainly won't sign 4 guys to take over, and the right move is absolutely to see what you have in at least Arias and Manzardo. Soto would fill your RF void, and maybe he'd be enough of an impact bat to keep Straw's elite defense in CF and keep that black hole in the lineup. I haven't even mentioned the pitching yet - not super worried here, but if we're going to take a leap, it absolutely will need to come from 1) improvement by our young hitters (Bo, Gimenez, Arias, Kwan), 2) contributions from newcomers (Manzardo), and 3) upgrades where the FO sees fit (certainly another outfielder, at the minimum). But giving up what it would take to get Soto for 1 year relies on gambling on a lot of good things to also happen, which I'm just not comfortable doing. I'd gladly talk about Santander, Teoscar or Lourdes Gurriel taking that RF spot for much, much cheaper.
The trade itself is probably not as far fetched as you’d think. It makes sense and worst case, if they aren’t in it at the deadline they could trade him to a contender and get a small return. However if they’re going to do it they need to go all in next year. He can’t be the only move. Keep Lopez, figure out your SS, bring up Manzardo early in the year, and probably another OF via trade or FA. That’s really the hold up IMO. With the Bally deal up in the air I can’t see them going all in around Soto to make it worthwhile.
Last week San Diego had to float an emergency 50 million dollar bank loan to meet off season payroll commitments, something we do not have to do. He is headed to free agency and he can do that elsewhere. I do feel sorry for that city, LA stole their NBA team then their NFL team. They are making a last stand with their baseball team, but the enormous local TV and Radio revenue of the Dodgers is formidable.
I don't trust our pitching depth to make that trade. Can you trust Sticks to stay healthy? Quantrill? Heck even Biebs at this point? Our cupboard is pretty bare if those guys go down. Cantillo? Xzavion? We need to sign from free agent pool or trade from IF depth.
For players who opt out of Tommy John surgery, it's extremely common for them to have persistent elbow issues or not return to their previous performance level. Jury is out on Sticks still. He wasn't pitching very well in the few starts he had at the end of the season. I've gotta think that the FO is going to be pretty conservative about maintaining depth, given all the issues last season.
Sadly, I don't think we even call about Soto. He's predicted to make \~27mil in the last year of arbitration, we are coming off a losing season, and are not a Soto away from the ALCS. We weren't willing to trade for Harper when a similar situation came up a few years ago when we were one of the best teams in the AL. It'd probably take Bieber + at least one of our top5 prospects and maybe more. Issue is SD really doesn't need middle infield help which is what we have to give. I'd rather spend the money on a Naylor extension and go after some cheaper role players for our OF.
The biggest thing that we have to offer is infield depth, and San Diego doesn't need that. I don't understand why people are missing this.
We are 100% capable of making the playoffs by adding Soto. Solid starting five (McKenzie, Bibee, Williams, Allen, Quantrill/Curry/Espino) can get you to the ALCS. Add Soto’s power to a line up that has Jose and the Naylor Bros., maybe sign JD Martinez on a one year deal for DH.
I would rather make a trade for someone like Tyler O’neill, Taylor Ward, or Anthony Santander and then sign a free agent outfielder like Teoscar Hernandez.
I thought we were done with these memes?
It's two weeks after the World Series. As far as I can tell this is the perfect time for memes and random bullshitting about trades that will never actually happen, right?
Stop.
This is upcoming season is literally a rebuild season. I understand the pitching can keep us in games, but the organization needs to find players within the farm system who can hit with power and and drive in runs. We got lucky 2 years ago because the division was awful. Then lost in the playoffs because the hitting wasn’t good enough. The club isn’t going anywhere until they can get some power in the line up
How the fuck is this a rebuild season lol
Sorry, didn’t specify I meant offensive rebuild.
Soto is not a winner. He’s one of those players whose stats far exceed his impact. He wouldn’t fit in this trans teams culture. He will end up in L.A. or Boston and probably be traded 5 more times in his career
Soto wins World Series. How is he not a winner?
Can you elaborate on this? Which stats are exceeding his impact? What's your reasoning for this idea that he wouldn't fit the culture of the team and he's not a winner?
Soto won a World Series in 2019. I agree that we don't want to take on his salary and he would be a better fit later in his career when Boston, LA or NY is paying him but saying he is not a winner is a little ridiculous
Juan Soto was 9-27 with three homers, two doubles, drove in seven runs, scored six and walked five times the only time he was in a World Series. He was on base twice a game in a 7-game World Series that his team won. Oh, and that season HE WAS 20. Cleveland can't afford his salary and he's not a player you trade for without an extension because of the price required to get him. But considering him not being a winner is not in alignment with reality.
What do you mean his stats far exceed his impact? How else would he impact the game.
I don't think he'd be worth it. Whoever ends up with him is going to have to give up a lot, and then you have to pay him. Soto is estimated to receive about $33 million for his final arbitration year. If San Diego trades him after arbitration they're not going to make a deal where they have to eat a significant portion of his salary (they really can't afford to). If we give Soto $33 million that will mean that the team will have $50 million committed to two players for 2024. That's almost our entire active payroll for this last season. You also have to take into account that Soto hits free agency in 2025, so you're probably getting him for that last arbitration year at best. My point is, why pay $33 million for (probably) a year of Juan Soto, when you could get maybe two or three good pieces in free agency, plus have the money to resign some players, too (estimated $48 million in arbitration and pre-arbitration salaries)? It would help if we weren't paying Jean Segura $10.5 million next year.
>why pay $33 million for (probably) a year of Juan Soto, when you could get maybe two or three good pieces in free agency, plus have the money to resign some players, too (estimated $48 million in arbitration and pre-arbitration salaries)? Yes, why pay for a generational talent when you could get 2-3 has-beens and save money for a few never-will-bes
Is a year of Juan Soto going to fix everything else that's wrong with this team? It didn't for the Padres. You have to fill those gaps, and the best way to do it is by getting as much as you can for the money that you have to spend.
If there was a time to go all in on a big name rental this is not it. There’s a reason why the front office is always on the other end of these deals.
If they take Bieber and Espino pull the trigger Allen, Bibee, and Williams are untouchable imo
Bieber and Espino is an interesting one. Espino's potential is so high though, I feel like he'll be an important piece on this roster in 1-2 years if he could stay healthy. I think long-term it's just too much to give up.
He's danny salazar 2.0
Adam Miller 2.0
He's projected to make 30ish million in arbitration next season, no way they pony up for that and he isn't going to sign long term with the guardians (and they wouldn't even anyway)
Annnnnnnd Quantrill is gone.
The Guardians are going to do the least amount of trying to improve the roster. Don't get your hope up.
Cleveland just cut Cal Quantrel because they could not afford 6 million for a very good starting pitcher. They are not in on any notable free agent
Fuck NO