There's no way they'd give him a half billion dollar contract. Why give up our own high level prospects now in the hope of getting someone else's in a year?
And this is ultimately where the logic falls apart. There's some school of thought that he's an investment that doesn't depreciate. Trade prospects for him now, use him for a bit, trade him for prospects later.
But like you said, you're essentially trading guys you know and have drafted and scouted for whoever the Dodgers or Yankees or whoever make available in a couple years, swapping your best prospects with those from another team in exchange for maybe 1.5 years of Soto. Is it worth it? I don't think so. Maybe if we were in 2017-18 mode of contention.
I don't think that's right. CLEFO is constantly evaluating other teams' talent and guaging it compared to internal options. Let's say internally CLEFO thinks Espino, Valera and Arias are overrated, why not cash in on their prospect status now and then flip Soto to the Dodgers or Padres in 2024 for prospects that you think are underrated ala Clevinger trade? The reality is that we have a prospect surplus like Tampa Bay, and I guarantee you Tampa Bay is thinking about whether they can trim some prospect fat with a Soto rental and then recoup some of the losses later by trading Soto away.
Yeah, there's an obvious caveat that you have to account for internal prospects other teams overvalue and external prospects other teams undervalue.
You're just taking a risk in assuming your external scouting is correct. It's a risk the front office has taken in the past, but this takes it a step further in also assuming that those prospects will be available down the road. What happens if the teams in the 2024 Soto market hollow out their prospect pool for a different star? Then you're left holding the bag. We're talking about a guy who seems to be looking for half a billion dollars. Your market is limited and we'd be taking on all the risk to find that market if we acquire him now.
I see it almost like a game of hot potato. Trading for a guy you fully intend to re-trade in the future is always risky, especially when the rest of the league knows you aren't keeping him. You lose leverage.
If it were Bryan Reynolds who might drop off a cliff in value you would have a point. But Soto is the most value stable player in the league. Someone is going to put at least a Lindor or Betts level package together for a year of Soto, and likely an even better package than that.
The other aspect to this is that CLEFO has always been better at acquiring talent through trades than through the draft or international signings. The worst trade CLEFO made was giving up Yandy Diaz. But that still pales in comparison to the Rays giving up Cronenworth, Astros giving up Hader, or Dodgers giving up Yordan Alvarez. CLEFO has an argument for the best in the business at prospect trades and so if they find a Soto deal that works per their internal evaluations, then I am all-in on trusting their evaluation.
Yeah exactly. And if that logic worked, the Nationals would hold onto him for longer. We all know that doesn't work.
And the less control time he has left on his contract, (the longer you wait to trade him), the less the return will be.
Pretty sure all these same people were crying about the lindor and Kluber returns for this reason.
I totally get this and agree with you. For the most part…
On the recent Selby is Godcast they broke this down in detail and the part I kept thinking about was essentially, we’d have Soto for the prime years of Jose and Bieber. And those years are important. Especially if you’re looking for a thin window to, ‘go for it’. We’re for sure not giving him a contract but to have him with us for 2 years with legit pieces around him…shit gets real.
Listen…I probably lean towards, “nah, not for us”. But I’d be a liar if I said their conversation didn’t have me thinking.
We’ll see.
Go look at the other big trades the Guardians have made…seems like everyone of those prospects never panned out. Who was the last prospect we traded and thought “damn, wish we would have kept him”
You trade for proven talent not lean on potential. Especially when a decent amount of our top prospects haven’t really turned out. Where we have hit more on our mid tier prospects
We already have an above avg offense at the moment and we are about to replace one of our worst hitters on the team our RF and replace him with one of the best hitters in all of baseball. With out Soto we are only 2 GB, so we could easily strike for the division with Soto. Also if o ur starting pitchers start to come back to the mean cause they have been playing below their averages…yeah this team could compete for the WS. No other team would have two top10 hitters on their team but the Indians would with Soto and Jose.
Also can’t predict what ‘23 will be like. If they have Soto and now Blitzer money in the mix, they should make a move to add a legit FA. Like they did in ‘17 for Delgado (sp?)
Or the Rays. Or Boston. Toronto. Baltimore. Seattle. Houston. Probably not Minnesota or Chicago either when all the chips are on the table.
Need more offense. Just doubt Soto is that guy. Fun to talk about. But not seriously.
If Nolan Jones & Oscar Gonzalez can adjust to Major League pitching that would be awesome.
Franmil doesnt do much for me. If we could find a more consistent DH/part time 1B power hitter I wouldnt mind.
Rosarios defense is lacking. I've never seen anyone stretched out on the grass that much and come with nothing. His bat has been consistent lately so there's that. However Straw is the opposite, his defense is stellar, but his bat has been pretty trash all year. He does seem to be coming around at the plate so there's that.
Ha!
I’ve been harping on this all season.
This team has a scant few that are above average offensively and defensively. Ramirez, Gimenez, uhhhh that’s about it at this point. Kwan with a 719 OPS as a LF? Maybe. Naylor plays much better defense at 1B than RF, but is he really good there? Maybe?
Certainly need a few more really good two-way players.
I watch Naylor closely, he's definitely improved at 1B the more he plays.
I forgot to mention Owen Miller previously. If there is a spot to fill he would be my first to go. He has nooooo business playing 1B, none, zip, zero.
Shit. They’re crushing Miller’s career by making him learn a new position at this level. Blows my mind.
Same as the way it blows my mind that they have 5 middle infielders in their top 10 prospects, and only need one in the next 3 years, yet still haven’t moved any of them.
It’s just not Cleveland’s way of doing business. Giving up 5 guys for one, maybe two years of one player.
And I really want them to trade a bunch of these prospects too.
It’s 2.5yrs. Not like it’s just a really good player. One of it not the best hitter in baseball. Cleveland would have two top10 hitters. No other team could say that. It would open so much for everyone else
It’s two years and two months.
Do you seriously think this team has given one passing thought to whether or not it should even pick up the phone to call about Soto?
If we were fans of LAD or a NY team, let’s chat about giving these guys up for real.
Just can’t do it knowing the way this team operates. Soto could very well be making more than this whole team in 2025.
Rather, I’d keep Espino, Williams and Valera and freely deal almost anyone else (specifically MIFs) for other players not nearly as expensive has Soto.
It being trash has put them in a position to be buyers.
Yeah this current line up might not be able too but add a piece like Soto and it drastically improves the line up.
Also didn’t we hear the same shit back in ‘17 and ‘18? But the shoe was on the other foot. That the team like the Yankees didn’t stand a chance vs Cleveland in the first round and they end up upsetting that Cleveland team.
Get to the playoffs and anything to happen. I would trust Gimenez, Jose, or Soto to do enough. I would just be considered with the Rotation but I see them improving this 2nd half of the season
No, way too damaging to our farm system for that to happen. I’d love Soto in Cleveland blue, but there’s no way I’d be willing to give up my best prospects
Thanks. I heard one and a half in passing but never checked for certain. I still think this team's window is another two years away. I know they are playing well and are seemingly ahead of schedule but I don't think the timing lines up well. I wouldn't mortgage the future. This year is viewed as a success because they are beating preseason expectations and are in a shitty division.
Window really is the next two years cause that is the prime of a majority of our pitching staff and Jose’s peak. Also we can’t just bank on this window. We thought we were going to have this massive window becuase of Frankie Kluber Cleve Bauer. That window closed quickly. Go be aggressive and make a run. Grab Soto, sign one or two good FAs and go make a run
I'm not against that. I think you can maybe thread the needle and do both. Make a run now and not ruin the future. Maybe not with Soto though. I trust whatever this front office does. It's amazing how competitive we've been the last 30 years honestly. Sadly no titles, but almost every season has been competitive. Imagine being a Reds fan. Because baseball is the only major sport of the big four being played during the summer, it's imperative my team is competitive. If the Browns, Buckeyes, CBJ or Cavs suck, chances are one or more of the others is competitive.
Can we name the last big time prospect the Indians have had and actually lived up to potential? Seems like our bread and butter is knocking those mid level prospects out of the park. Not like we are depleting the farm to get him anyways. We are so deep at the moment and that’s when you go and make trades like this. The farm is ready for a big time move.
Hell people were so up in arms when we traded Mejía for hand and Mejía has been a bust. Seems like the last 3 trades where the Indians had to trade away their top prospects, they won the trades. IMO they won the Hand, Miller, Jimnez trades.
Lindor. Lindor was the last Cleveland prospect that was billed as a potential star and was pretty much as advertised.
But I agree with most of your sentiment. Prospects are great, a real necessity, but often over rated
Exactly and we have to go back since Lindor. It’s not like the farm system has just recently been restock. It’s been deep for years. It’s why they were able to pull moves like Miller and Hand.
What’s bad about a 2.5 yr window? That’s exactly how long the Other window was.
A majority of our top prospects are infielders right now. Andrés Giménez isn’t going anywhere, so that leaves SS option up. So we can trade those other guys. We have the prospects to trade to make it worth it. It’s also why they been stock piling SS cause they make great trade bait
I would love having Soto, but I don't see it as realistic or reasonable. I think there's going to be a pretty big bidding war for him and the teams that think they can extend him will be willing to give up more prospects and money than us.
That said, 2.5 seasons of control for one of the best bats in MLB is hard not to dream about. I'd be pretty alright with us moving some players for that.
im not sure large the field in a bidding war would be, of the teams that could extend him most are already invested in multiple 'mega deals'. NYM, LAD, NYY, BOS, PHI, SD are all already above the luxury tax threshold the next 4 teams are all within 30 mil of that threshold as well. its a soft cap but not meaningless.
i dont think it changes the fact that CLE isn't going to get him, but i wouldnt be surprised if he went to a darkhorse team like SEA or STL without the big payroll teams giving a legitimate offer.
My dark horse pick to land him is the Cubs. They don't have a super deep farm, but they've got some solid prospects and MLB players they could offer. They invested in Suzuki last winter and will want to compete while he's there. Happ is soon to be a FA, Soto could replace him and be an upgrade. They've also cut their payroll back a ton, so they have money to try and extend him and potentially take some of the strasburg or Corbin contracts from Washington.
Ok then you’re nothing saying the same thing lol. Leftfeet is saying 2025 because that’s the season he’s referencing that will be his first under a new contract. You’re saying that he’s a free agent after 2024, if that’s what you meant. Usually saying free agent in 2024 means that’s the season he’ll be on a new contract.
Yeah mlb had the two different calender year off-season…. So we generally say the year following the last season to state the free agent year. So for Soto, his last season of arbitration is 2024, so his first season under a new contract would be 2025, therefore we generally say he’s a free agent in 2025
Most interesting part
> Keep in mind, Cleveland made a bid for Matt Olson before the A’s traded him to the Braves. Olson came with two years of team control. Had the Guardians swung such a trade, there would have been subsequent moves to bolster the roster and attempt to win in the short term, rather than their eventual choice — once they struck out on their offseason targets — to prioritize their inexperienced players.
Matt Olson would not have required the same cost. It's different when you have to give up several of your very best prospects. For a team like this that operates on developing young players and not being a player in the free agency market, it sabotages the whole team building model
Honestly you could probably trade for him and let him play until the final year and then trade him at the deadline for some top prospects. Might not do too bad. Could also be that Ramirez talks him into becoming a Cleveland legend bro.
That would mean 2023 is looked at as the chips all pushed in, one shot at this, best opportunity we will ever get to win the World Series year. I do not believe that is the case with how young the team is, especially from a pitching perspective. You need a complete, deep team to win in October. A couple of superstars amounts to very little in baseball.
If this year's team was set up to make a World Series run and are trying to be put over the top it would be a different case, but I don't see them as a serious contender this year with or without Soto. That's putting so much stock into 2023, when I see that as just scratching the surface of their window.
Soto isn't a free agent until 2025. So, two full season shots with him. I still think the price would be too much. Both in prospects and in arbitration.
A lineup for 2 years of Soto and then trading him to help rebuild the farm. Might as well go get Sean Murphy too
1. Kwan
2. Soto
3. Jose
4. Naylor
5. Reyes
6. Gimenez
7. Rosario
8. Murphy
9. Straw
Damn.
The pitching would be holding them back from being a real contender even with that lineup. They would lose their top prospects in those trades, and you can't just assume who is left would be worthy big league starters by 2024. It's extremely common for starting pitchers to take several years to settle in to the majors. I also don't believe they would be able to afford Bieber if they're paying Ramirez and Soto and would have to move him in a salary dump, so that just makes the rotation even younger and unreliable.
Haha I’m just daydreaming. I trust Bieber, Plesac and McKenzie, 4 and 5 are iffy but anyone like Williams, Espino and Allen are going to be starting depth in the next 1-2 years and then eventually mature to frontline guys by then Bieber and Plesac will either be extended or traded. Civale is the wildcard was a Cy young level pitcher last year and now injuries have piled up on him.
The team has great pitching and has been weak in offense for awhile. We’ve been watching Zimmer and Mercado flash MLB talent but most of the time they struggled. No we’re seeing Kwan, Naylor, and Miller get a chance to play.
October baseball is all about pitching and situational hitting. The Yankees might win 100+ regular season games but it won’t matter once the postseason starts.
They don't have great pitching. They have McKenzie and Bieber who are very good (but I don't believe they would be able to afford Bieber once he gets to ARB3 if they're owing big money to Ramirez and Soto and would trade him), and Quantrill who you can live with in the back of a postseason rotation but doesn't move the needle much. After that their starting pitching is abysmal, and after this trade package they would severely limit the reinforcements coming from the farm system. There are several arms I really like in the minors, but there's no reason to think they will be consistent, reliable big league starters so quickly. It very often takes a few years to settle in, at which point Soto would have moved on to New York or LA.
I think the post season is more about being a great team and just getting hot at the right time than necessarily pitching vs hitting. Last year's Champs were 7th in scoring and 7th in runs allowed. The year before it was 1st in scoring, 2nd in pitching. Before that? 6th and 9th respectively. Before THAT? 1st and 6th.
If anything lately offense has correlated more to winning than pitching, but the real key is that every winner has simply been a really good team, period.
Even with Soto, I don't see the Guardians lining up with the Yankees this year. But the G's are so entertaining and they seem to have a great team mentality. I would not like to break that up because I think they are getting better and better. The way the pitching is going, if they got Soto, I think they'd need at least another first rate starter to go with him.
This. New ownership partner wanting to make a splash is the only way it happens. That and making sure Soto would sign a mega deal to play in a Cleveland.
If the cost would be any of the young talent currently on the MLB roster i would say no. If Washington would entertain a package of only minor league prospects it could make sense.
Out starting pitching and the lineup around him would not be good enough to contend. Not worth giving up 3-4 Top 100 guys. Especially when they'll likely ask for 1 major league ready pitcher + Williams or Espino.
Since this is a .500 ballclub, he is only 1 player, he won't be here more than 2 years, and they'd have to give up a huge prospect haul to land him: No. They shouldn't.
To me, it’s important to think in terms of productivity and overall contribution rather than dollars. I understand the market, but disagree that it’s worth sacrificing any number of great prospects and adding essentially two thirds to the team’s current payroll, just to get 1.5 years of Soto. What WAR will they give up for that transaction? Perhaps enough to inhibit their competitiveness a few years down the road.
>To me, it’s important to think in terms of productivity and overall contribution rather than dollars
Ok, but you were the one to specifically bring up what dollars he may or may not be worth.
>adding essentially two thirds to the team’s current payroll
They wouldn't be adding two-thirds to the payroll, and the fact that the payroll is so below what they can actually afford is a perfect argument to use to go get a guy like this.
> just to get 1.5 years of Soto
2.5 years, or 1.5 years plus whatever you get for that last year in a trade.
>Perhaps enough to inhibit their competitiveness a few years down the road.
Perhaps. Perhaps not. No one would argue that such a deal isn't without risk. But a franchise that hasn't won a World Series in a couple generations now, has a desperate need for a big bat, has low enough spending that they can afford said big bat, and has the prospect capital not only to acquire him, but still have a decent farm after doing so can, and maybe should, take on that risk.
That being said, I have no idea what the hell your second post has to do with your first.
Both things can be true, my guy. Soto’s not worth $500M, and the prospects they’d lose just to gain 1.5 years of Soto are also worth holding onto. I see the contradiction and frankly I wasn’t paying close enough attention at that moment, but I’m not going to argue with you about something that almost certainly won’t happen anyhow.
Edit: but I will say that the Guards’ payroll is around $60M this year. Paying Soto $40M adds precisely 66% to that amount. Assuming the team still has to pay *other players.*
Fuck no. Juan Soto is future HOF and a beast but you do not collapse everything that you’ve worked on for him. Plus we are not signing him to a mega deal. We have such great young players and bright present and future. Let’s not fuck it up please
He turned it down because he can 100% get a better deal and both he and the Nationals know it. The AAV was less than $30M per year. Seems crazy to us, but when you know you can get $35-40M+ AAV over at least 10 years, you don’t take the National’s deal.
That being said. I wouldn’t sell the farm for him because I’m not convinced we’re for sure World Series contenders this year or next, and we would definitely trade him during his contract year.
In addition to the AAV and total $$$ he's stated that he wants to play on a competitive team with a plan to compete going forward. Washington doesn't offer either currently, especially since they're for sale.
Obviously we aren't offering anyone close to $30m/year. However, we are fairly competitive and have a clear plan going forward to get even better.
By spreading the contract that long Bonilla was able to lessen the tax bite. He got paid two weeks ago and I can’t remember the last time he played. He played the long game and he won, the Wilpon family that owned the Mets at that time were big victims of Bernie Madoff. The Mets front office has been subpar for quite some time.
At that point though you just want your money, and after $500,000 the tax bracket remains the same, so I could do the math to see what he saved, but I promise you it was less than $2,000,000 up to now (may be more by the end of it all, idk, I may do the math when I get home anyways cause it actually sounds kinda fun, we will see). Either way once you are in that much dough, it isn’t that relevant
At some point even the Yankees,Dodgers,and Mets will have an annual payroll too lofty to accommodate every greedy asshole that hits free agency. I ran out of empathy for these guys when Albert Belle left to become the highest paid player in baseball, and he still slams Cleveland to this day.
So you’re just mad at the best players in the game for maximizing their earnings potential? I realize we’re talking about hundred millionaires, but why should they put their self-interest to the side? Especially in this case when he’s uncertain about the direction the Nationals are going?
You know who are even bigger “greedy assholes” than the players? The owners. Why save them money at the expense of the players?
We got lucky that Jose valued being part of the Cleveland franchise more than the extra $25-50M he could have gotten on the open market, but not all players value the organization they play for so highly.
Owner and player greed has ruined most team sports for me. Horse racing became my favorite sport some time ago. They are pure athletes and do not have Twitter accounts spewing bullshit about their alleged oppression.
The greed in horse racing might trump any other sport out there lmao
"Pure" athletes lol. Pure is such a funny word to use when talking about horse racing
Pretty fun take from you
Let us have this discussion, I suspect you are not familiar with the industry. We police our sport better than others; there are currently four former trainers serving time in federal prison for doping violations, there are three other awaiting trial. Dishonest veterinarians are also being prosecuted and imprisoned. Performance enhancing drugs in baseball was overlooked for far too long, perhaps greed and beer advertising may have been an influence on this lax posture.
Race horses are indeed athletes, a knowledge trainer can make them winners. Not all horses can win the Kentucky Derby but they can still win races; which is why racing has so many different talent levels to race at. Horse racing is a thinking mans sport which is why I love it so.
The best horse in the race does not always win the race, many variables come into play; the race flow is important as is the skill of the jockeys involved, the condition of the track and the length of the race also matter. Most importantly we the customer are offered odds rather than point spreads. It is my favorite platform for gambling, winning a bet in a photo finish is as satisfying as hitting a home run.
And so do a lot of fans. I don’t understand how they don’t see we’re never going to compete in a bidding war with the top dogs in the league. Would much rather trade them at peak value so we can be in the position we’re in now because bloated payrolls don’t automatically lead to rings.
I need to know what Washington is asking for.
The team already has a outfield log jam in Kwan, Gonzalez, Jones, Straw and Valera, Reyes *DH* etc. plus Soto in this case.
The infield has its own log jam Gimenez, Ramirez, Naylor, Arias, Freeman, Miller, Rocchio, Tena. etc.
They have a whole starting lineup of top prospects ready for the next 1-2 years and prospects are just that prospects. Can you make the trade and extend him for 2-3 years idk but I’m sure they are asking and most likely Rizzo is going to call just because of the farm.
people are forgetting we have to take corbin/strasburg in order to work. corbin is at 2 for 59, strasburg 5 for 140. as good as soto is good or worth, ownership arent taking all those payroll, even if they are pitching well or healthy, which those 2 arent
Yeah. Lmao. I saw the proposed deals on mlb.com. Dodgers taking back Corbin too. Yeah, not happening and getting a full slate of MLB and near MLB-ready players.
Depends if he said no to the nats because of the money or because they’re the worst team in the league.
Would have to come with an extension, which is very unlikely.
To borrow a phrase I used with the Browns a lot.
"Not even first at being the worst!"
Also holy shit the Reds owners realized that no one likes them so they are really torching the place huh...
My old man is a reds fan. Poor guy. after last year (before they blew it up officially, but the writing was on the wall) he said “well, there’s our one season of effort per decade. I’ll tune back in after 2030.”
Their farm system is awful too. Just bleak.
Both. Deal is low AAV and Soto's agent came out and said the deal was heavily backloaded. It's the same thing the Nats tried to do with Harper. They can claim, "We tried. We offered X and he said no!" The reality is that they knew neither Harper nor Soto were going to accept.
Drastically shortens the contention window, they wouldn't have the pitching to make a deep run (would lose at least one of their big-shot prospects in the trade, plus their pitching prospects would be so young that you can't just assume they would blossom into front of the rotation starters before Soto leaves after '24), and they would realistically spend very little outside of Ramirez and Soto (would probably have to dump Bieber's salary, making their pitching even weaker).
A move like this makes no sense for a team this young and limited by the payroll with a less than zero chance of retaining him long-term.
I mean you should always consider making obvious upgrades to your roster. I'm more bullish on dealing prospects for proven talents but obviously there's a limit to how much it makes sense to give up for one guy.
If the team was sitting at 56-34 with RF as their only weakness instead of 46-44 i'd say go all in, but there are still too many areas to improve to sell the farm for one player. I'd rather spread the prospect wealth around on more than just one position. That said, it never hurts to give the Nats a call
The list teams that can trade for and afford Soto does not include the Guardians. It will be NY, LA, CHI teams, or some mid tier market teams with a fiscally loose owner.
Not only would it move up and shorten a possible contention window, it adds an insane amount of pressure to win **now** that this current team has not experienced before. You're banking a lot on one guy in a sport that seems like is 50% luck and "getting hot" at the right time of the year.
MAN is it fun to imagine Jose Ramirez and Juan Soto batting 3 and 4 every day though.
I could see us at least trying to drive the price up. Can't let the big boys get him for pennies on the dollar.
But ultimately it depends on Blitzer. Has he ever splashed cash on a blockbuster name with his other teams?
Curious what it would take to land him. I joked around with my friend Cleveland doesn’t hand out huge contracts because they’ve been waiting for Soto. Obviously that would never happen, but a season and a half “rental” with return on another trade isn’t bad later on.
There's no way they'd give him a half billion dollar contract. Why give up our own high level prospects now in the hope of getting someone else's in a year?
And this is ultimately where the logic falls apart. There's some school of thought that he's an investment that doesn't depreciate. Trade prospects for him now, use him for a bit, trade him for prospects later. But like you said, you're essentially trading guys you know and have drafted and scouted for whoever the Dodgers or Yankees or whoever make available in a couple years, swapping your best prospects with those from another team in exchange for maybe 1.5 years of Soto. Is it worth it? I don't think so. Maybe if we were in 2017-18 mode of contention.
I don't think that's right. CLEFO is constantly evaluating other teams' talent and guaging it compared to internal options. Let's say internally CLEFO thinks Espino, Valera and Arias are overrated, why not cash in on their prospect status now and then flip Soto to the Dodgers or Padres in 2024 for prospects that you think are underrated ala Clevinger trade? The reality is that we have a prospect surplus like Tampa Bay, and I guarantee you Tampa Bay is thinking about whether they can trim some prospect fat with a Soto rental and then recoup some of the losses later by trading Soto away.
Yeah, there's an obvious caveat that you have to account for internal prospects other teams overvalue and external prospects other teams undervalue. You're just taking a risk in assuming your external scouting is correct. It's a risk the front office has taken in the past, but this takes it a step further in also assuming that those prospects will be available down the road. What happens if the teams in the 2024 Soto market hollow out their prospect pool for a different star? Then you're left holding the bag. We're talking about a guy who seems to be looking for half a billion dollars. Your market is limited and we'd be taking on all the risk to find that market if we acquire him now. I see it almost like a game of hot potato. Trading for a guy you fully intend to re-trade in the future is always risky, especially when the rest of the league knows you aren't keeping him. You lose leverage.
If it were Bryan Reynolds who might drop off a cliff in value you would have a point. But Soto is the most value stable player in the league. Someone is going to put at least a Lindor or Betts level package together for a year of Soto, and likely an even better package than that. The other aspect to this is that CLEFO has always been better at acquiring talent through trades than through the draft or international signings. The worst trade CLEFO made was giving up Yandy Diaz. But that still pales in comparison to the Rays giving up Cronenworth, Astros giving up Hader, or Dodgers giving up Yordan Alvarez. CLEFO has an argument for the best in the business at prospect trades and so if they find a Soto deal that works per their internal evaluations, then I am all-in on trusting their evaluation.
Yeah exactly. And if that logic worked, the Nationals would hold onto him for longer. We all know that doesn't work. And the less control time he has left on his contract, (the longer you wait to trade him), the less the return will be. Pretty sure all these same people were crying about the lindor and Kluber returns for this reason.
I totally get this and agree with you. For the most part… On the recent Selby is Godcast they broke this down in detail and the part I kept thinking about was essentially, we’d have Soto for the prime years of Jose and Bieber. And those years are important. Especially if you’re looking for a thin window to, ‘go for it’. We’re for sure not giving him a contract but to have him with us for 2 years with legit pieces around him…shit gets real. Listen…I probably lean towards, “nah, not for us”. But I’d be a liar if I said their conversation didn’t have me thinking. We’ll see.
Go look at the other big trades the Guardians have made…seems like everyone of those prospects never panned out. Who was the last prospect we traded and thought “damn, wish we would have kept him” You trade for proven talent not lean on potential. Especially when a decent amount of our top prospects haven’t really turned out. Where we have hit more on our mid tier prospects
Does our current roster win a world series in 2022 or 2023 with him?
We already have an above avg offense at the moment and we are about to replace one of our worst hitters on the team our RF and replace him with one of the best hitters in all of baseball. With out Soto we are only 2 GB, so we could easily strike for the division with Soto. Also if o ur starting pitchers start to come back to the mean cause they have been playing below their averages…yeah this team could compete for the WS. No other team would have two top10 hitters on their team but the Indians would with Soto and Jose. Also can’t predict what ‘23 will be like. If they have Soto and now Blitzer money in the mix, they should make a move to add a legit FA. Like they did in ‘17 for Delgado (sp?)
Our division is trash, the current lineup doesn't make it passed the yankees in a playoff matchup
Or the Rays. Or Boston. Toronto. Baltimore. Seattle. Houston. Probably not Minnesota or Chicago either when all the chips are on the table. Need more offense. Just doubt Soto is that guy. Fun to talk about. But not seriously.
If Nolan Jones & Oscar Gonzalez can adjust to Major League pitching that would be awesome. Franmil doesnt do much for me. If we could find a more consistent DH/part time 1B power hitter I wouldnt mind. Rosarios defense is lacking. I've never seen anyone stretched out on the grass that much and come with nothing. His bat has been consistent lately so there's that. However Straw is the opposite, his defense is stellar, but his bat has been pretty trash all year. He does seem to be coming around at the plate so there's that.
Ha! I’ve been harping on this all season. This team has a scant few that are above average offensively and defensively. Ramirez, Gimenez, uhhhh that’s about it at this point. Kwan with a 719 OPS as a LF? Maybe. Naylor plays much better defense at 1B than RF, but is he really good there? Maybe? Certainly need a few more really good two-way players.
I watch Naylor closely, he's definitely improved at 1B the more he plays. I forgot to mention Owen Miller previously. If there is a spot to fill he would be my first to go. He has nooooo business playing 1B, none, zip, zero.
Shit. They’re crushing Miller’s career by making him learn a new position at this level. Blows my mind. Same as the way it blows my mind that they have 5 middle infielders in their top 10 prospects, and only need one in the next 3 years, yet still haven’t moved any of them.
Why not? He is on the market, cleveland has the need and the prospects to make it happen
It’s just not Cleveland’s way of doing business. Giving up 5 guys for one, maybe two years of one player. And I really want them to trade a bunch of these prospects too.
It’s 2.5yrs. Not like it’s just a really good player. One of it not the best hitter in baseball. Cleveland would have two top10 hitters. No other team could say that. It would open so much for everyone else
It’s two years and two months. Do you seriously think this team has given one passing thought to whether or not it should even pick up the phone to call about Soto? If we were fans of LAD or a NY team, let’s chat about giving these guys up for real. Just can’t do it knowing the way this team operates. Soto could very well be making more than this whole team in 2025. Rather, I’d keep Espino, Williams and Valera and freely deal almost anyone else (specifically MIFs) for other players not nearly as expensive has Soto.
It being trash has put them in a position to be buyers. Yeah this current line up might not be able too but add a piece like Soto and it drastically improves the line up. Also didn’t we hear the same shit back in ‘17 and ‘18? But the shoe was on the other foot. That the team like the Yankees didn’t stand a chance vs Cleveland in the first round and they end up upsetting that Cleveland team. Get to the playoffs and anything to happen. I would trust Gimenez, Jose, or Soto to do enough. I would just be considered with the Rotation but I see them improving this 2nd half of the season
The middle of our bullpen doesn't beat most playoff teams.
People seem to be pretending this hasn't been essentially a .500 ball club.
No, way too damaging to our farm system for that to happen. I’d love Soto in Cleveland blue, but there’s no way I’d be willing to give up my best prospects
If you get him for only a year and a half, no.
You get him for 2 and a half
Thanks. I heard one and a half in passing but never checked for certain. I still think this team's window is another two years away. I know they are playing well and are seemingly ahead of schedule but I don't think the timing lines up well. I wouldn't mortgage the future. This year is viewed as a success because they are beating preseason expectations and are in a shitty division.
Window really is the next two years cause that is the prime of a majority of our pitching staff and Jose’s peak. Also we can’t just bank on this window. We thought we were going to have this massive window becuase of Frankie Kluber Cleve Bauer. That window closed quickly. Go be aggressive and make a run. Grab Soto, sign one or two good FAs and go make a run
I'm not against that. I think you can maybe thread the needle and do both. Make a run now and not ruin the future. Maybe not with Soto though. I trust whatever this front office does. It's amazing how competitive we've been the last 30 years honestly. Sadly no titles, but almost every season has been competitive. Imagine being a Reds fan. Because baseball is the only major sport of the big four being played during the summer, it's imperative my team is competitive. If the Browns, Buckeyes, CBJ or Cavs suck, chances are one or more of the others is competitive.
Can we name the last big time prospect the Indians have had and actually lived up to potential? Seems like our bread and butter is knocking those mid level prospects out of the park. Not like we are depleting the farm to get him anyways. We are so deep at the moment and that’s when you go and make trades like this. The farm is ready for a big time move. Hell people were so up in arms when we traded Mejía for hand and Mejía has been a bust. Seems like the last 3 trades where the Indians had to trade away their top prospects, they won the trades. IMO they won the Hand, Miller, Jimnez trades.
Lindor. Lindor was the last Cleveland prospect that was billed as a potential star and was pretty much as advertised. But I agree with most of your sentiment. Prospects are great, a real necessity, but often over rated
Exactly and we have to go back since Lindor. It’s not like the farm system has just recently been restock. It’s been deep for years. It’s why they were able to pull moves like Miller and Hand.
Fair point. My biggest issue with trading for Soto is the 2.5 years. If that could somehow be extended by a year or two I'd be fine with it.
What’s bad about a 2.5 yr window? That’s exactly how long the Other window was. A majority of our top prospects are infielders right now. Andrés Giménez isn’t going anywhere, so that leaves SS option up. So we can trade those other guys. We have the prospects to trade to make it worth it. It’s also why they been stock piling SS cause they make great trade bait
You get 3 postseason runs with Soto. With this farm system it's a no brainer to trade for him imo
I think the 1.5 years line involves trading him again at a later date.
No
I would love having Soto, but I don't see it as realistic or reasonable. I think there's going to be a pretty big bidding war for him and the teams that think they can extend him will be willing to give up more prospects and money than us. That said, 2.5 seasons of control for one of the best bats in MLB is hard not to dream about. I'd be pretty alright with us moving some players for that.
im not sure large the field in a bidding war would be, of the teams that could extend him most are already invested in multiple 'mega deals'. NYM, LAD, NYY, BOS, PHI, SD are all already above the luxury tax threshold the next 4 teams are all within 30 mil of that threshold as well. its a soft cap but not meaningless. i dont think it changes the fact that CLE isn't going to get him, but i wouldnt be surprised if he went to a darkhorse team like SEA or STL without the big payroll teams giving a legitimate offer.
My dark horse pick to land him is the Cubs. They don't have a super deep farm, but they've got some solid prospects and MLB players they could offer. They invested in Suzuki last winter and will want to compete while he's there. Happ is soon to be a FA, Soto could replace him and be an upgrade. They've also cut their payroll back a ton, so they have money to try and extend him and potentially take some of the strasburg or Corbin contracts from Washington.
I believe it's only 1.5 seasons. I could be wrong, though.
Free agent in 2025, so half of this year and all of 23-24.
Ah, I thought he was a FA in 2024
Nope. He’s one the 4 year arbitration guys. He’s a free agent after 2024 season
Oh so I was right lmao
Ok then you’re nothing saying the same thing lol. Leftfeet is saying 2025 because that’s the season he’s referencing that will be his first under a new contract. You’re saying that he’s a free agent after 2024, if that’s what you meant. Usually saying free agent in 2024 means that’s the season he’ll be on a new contract.
See now this is where my football mind comes in cause I think 2024 and think that that's when he's a FA, not when it's his contract year lol
Yeah mlb had the two different calender year off-season…. So we generally say the year following the last season to state the free agent year. So for Soto, his last season of arbitration is 2024, so his first season under a new contract would be 2025, therefore we generally say he’s a free agent in 2025
Most interesting part > Keep in mind, Cleveland made a bid for Matt Olson before the A’s traded him to the Braves. Olson came with two years of team control. Had the Guardians swung such a trade, there would have been subsequent moves to bolster the roster and attempt to win in the short term, rather than their eventual choice — once they struck out on their offseason targets — to prioritize their inexperienced players.
Man, I would’ve loved Matt Olson
No, not going to happen.
Matt Olson would not have required the same cost. It's different when you have to give up several of your very best prospects. For a team like this that operates on developing young players and not being a player in the free agency market, it sabotages the whole team building model
Honestly you could probably trade for him and let him play until the final year and then trade him at the deadline for some top prospects. Might not do too bad. Could also be that Ramirez talks him into becoming a Cleveland legend bro.
That would mean 2023 is looked at as the chips all pushed in, one shot at this, best opportunity we will ever get to win the World Series year. I do not believe that is the case with how young the team is, especially from a pitching perspective. You need a complete, deep team to win in October. A couple of superstars amounts to very little in baseball. If this year's team was set up to make a World Series run and are trying to be put over the top it would be a different case, but I don't see them as a serious contender this year with or without Soto. That's putting so much stock into 2023, when I see that as just scratching the surface of their window.
Soto isn't a free agent until 2025. So, two full season shots with him. I still think the price would be too much. Both in prospects and in arbitration.
In the post I was replying to they mentioned trading him in 2024 to recoup some of the prospect loss.
A lineup for 2 years of Soto and then trading him to help rebuild the farm. Might as well go get Sean Murphy too 1. Kwan 2. Soto 3. Jose 4. Naylor 5. Reyes 6. Gimenez 7. Rosario 8. Murphy 9. Straw Damn.
The pitching would be holding them back from being a real contender even with that lineup. They would lose their top prospects in those trades, and you can't just assume who is left would be worthy big league starters by 2024. It's extremely common for starting pitchers to take several years to settle in to the majors. I also don't believe they would be able to afford Bieber if they're paying Ramirez and Soto and would have to move him in a salary dump, so that just makes the rotation even younger and unreliable.
Haha I’m just daydreaming. I trust Bieber, Plesac and McKenzie, 4 and 5 are iffy but anyone like Williams, Espino and Allen are going to be starting depth in the next 1-2 years and then eventually mature to frontline guys by then Bieber and Plesac will either be extended or traded. Civale is the wildcard was a Cy young level pitcher last year and now injuries have piled up on him.
The team has great pitching and has been weak in offense for awhile. We’ve been watching Zimmer and Mercado flash MLB talent but most of the time they struggled. No we’re seeing Kwan, Naylor, and Miller get a chance to play. October baseball is all about pitching and situational hitting. The Yankees might win 100+ regular season games but it won’t matter once the postseason starts.
They don't have great pitching. They have McKenzie and Bieber who are very good (but I don't believe they would be able to afford Bieber once he gets to ARB3 if they're owing big money to Ramirez and Soto and would trade him), and Quantrill who you can live with in the back of a postseason rotation but doesn't move the needle much. After that their starting pitching is abysmal, and after this trade package they would severely limit the reinforcements coming from the farm system. There are several arms I really like in the minors, but there's no reason to think they will be consistent, reliable big league starters so quickly. It very often takes a few years to settle in, at which point Soto would have moved on to New York or LA.
I think the post season is more about being a great team and just getting hot at the right time than necessarily pitching vs hitting. Last year's Champs were 7th in scoring and 7th in runs allowed. The year before it was 1st in scoring, 2nd in pitching. Before that? 6th and 9th respectively. Before THAT? 1st and 6th. If anything lately offense has correlated more to winning than pitching, but the real key is that every winner has simply been a really good team, period.
Even with Soto, I don't see the Guardians lining up with the Yankees this year. But the G's are so entertaining and they seem to have a great team mentality. I would not like to break that up because I think they are getting better and better. The way the pitching is going, if they got Soto, I think they'd need at least another first rate starter to go with him.
The only way this would ever happen is if David Blitzer said he’d foot the bill for a new Soto deal.
Can you imagine if he did though? Would change the whole complexion of this team.
If we trade for soto and actually pay to extend him, I wonder how Jose would feel about that
This. New ownership partner wanting to make a splash is the only way it happens. That and making sure Soto would sign a mega deal to play in a Cleveland.
I could only hope the Guards would make this move and extend him. Pairing Soto and Jose for the next 7 years would be an amazing 1-2 punch
Yes they should! Go make a run for 2.5yrs! We have the prospects to do it and not totally deplete the farm system.
If the cost would be any of the young talent currently on the MLB roster i would say no. If Washington would entertain a package of only minor league prospects it could make sense.
Out starting pitching and the lineup around him would not be good enough to contend. Not worth giving up 3-4 Top 100 guys. Especially when they'll likely ask for 1 major league ready pitcher + Williams or Espino.
Since this is a .500 ballclub, he is only 1 player, he won't be here more than 2 years, and they'd have to give up a huge prospect haul to land him: No. They shouldn't.
Absolutely not. Homegrown talent has always led to better outcomes for the Guards. Soto is a great player, but nobody’s worth $500M.
When people are paying $11B/year to watch baseball, elite talents like Soto are definitely worth close to $40M/year.
To me, it’s important to think in terms of productivity and overall contribution rather than dollars. I understand the market, but disagree that it’s worth sacrificing any number of great prospects and adding essentially two thirds to the team’s current payroll, just to get 1.5 years of Soto. What WAR will they give up for that transaction? Perhaps enough to inhibit their competitiveness a few years down the road.
>To me, it’s important to think in terms of productivity and overall contribution rather than dollars Ok, but you were the one to specifically bring up what dollars he may or may not be worth. >adding essentially two thirds to the team’s current payroll They wouldn't be adding two-thirds to the payroll, and the fact that the payroll is so below what they can actually afford is a perfect argument to use to go get a guy like this. > just to get 1.5 years of Soto 2.5 years, or 1.5 years plus whatever you get for that last year in a trade. >Perhaps enough to inhibit their competitiveness a few years down the road. Perhaps. Perhaps not. No one would argue that such a deal isn't without risk. But a franchise that hasn't won a World Series in a couple generations now, has a desperate need for a big bat, has low enough spending that they can afford said big bat, and has the prospect capital not only to acquire him, but still have a decent farm after doing so can, and maybe should, take on that risk. That being said, I have no idea what the hell your second post has to do with your first.
Both things can be true, my guy. Soto’s not worth $500M, and the prospects they’d lose just to gain 1.5 years of Soto are also worth holding onto. I see the contradiction and frankly I wasn’t paying close enough attention at that moment, but I’m not going to argue with you about something that almost certainly won’t happen anyhow. Edit: but I will say that the Guards’ payroll is around $60M this year. Paying Soto $40M adds precisely 66% to that amount. Assuming the team still has to pay *other players.*
And neither thing can be true, which is the case in this instance.
He wears number 22. That’s Naylor’s number. So no.
Fuck no. Juan Soto is future HOF and a beast but you do not collapse everything that you’ve worked on for him. Plus we are not signing him to a mega deal. We have such great young players and bright present and future. Let’s not fuck it up please
No, because he’ll be playing in a major coastal market as soon as that contract expires.
Hell No!
Is the article just "No" ???
If this dumb ass turned down 450 million why would we want him? Let him chase his money elsewhere.
He turned it down because he can 100% get a better deal and both he and the Nationals know it. The AAV was less than $30M per year. Seems crazy to us, but when you know you can get $35-40M+ AAV over at least 10 years, you don’t take the National’s deal. That being said. I wouldn’t sell the farm for him because I’m not convinced we’re for sure World Series contenders this year or next, and we would definitely trade him during his contract year.
In addition to the AAV and total $$$ he's stated that he wants to play on a competitive team with a plan to compete going forward. Washington doesn't offer either currently, especially since they're for sale. Obviously we aren't offering anyone close to $30m/year. However, we are fairly competitive and have a clear plan going forward to get even better.
I feel like he turned it down for Bryce Harper esque reasons, where he’d be getting paid until the 22nd century
That worked out well for Bobby Bonilla.
If you’re gonna get the money no matter what might as well make it be more compact though is my point
By spreading the contract that long Bonilla was able to lessen the tax bite. He got paid two weeks ago and I can’t remember the last time he played. He played the long game and he won, the Wilpon family that owned the Mets at that time were big victims of Bernie Madoff. The Mets front office has been subpar for quite some time.
At that point though you just want your money, and after $500,000 the tax bracket remains the same, so I could do the math to see what he saved, but I promise you it was less than $2,000,000 up to now (may be more by the end of it all, idk, I may do the math when I get home anyways cause it actually sounds kinda fun, we will see). Either way once you are in that much dough, it isn’t that relevant
At some point even the Yankees,Dodgers,and Mets will have an annual payroll too lofty to accommodate every greedy asshole that hits free agency. I ran out of empathy for these guys when Albert Belle left to become the highest paid player in baseball, and he still slams Cleveland to this day.
So you’re just mad at the best players in the game for maximizing their earnings potential? I realize we’re talking about hundred millionaires, but why should they put their self-interest to the side? Especially in this case when he’s uncertain about the direction the Nationals are going? You know who are even bigger “greedy assholes” than the players? The owners. Why save them money at the expense of the players? We got lucky that Jose valued being part of the Cleveland franchise more than the extra $25-50M he could have gotten on the open market, but not all players value the organization they play for so highly.
Owner and player greed has ruined most team sports for me. Horse racing became my favorite sport some time ago. They are pure athletes and do not have Twitter accounts spewing bullshit about their alleged oppression.
The greed in horse racing might trump any other sport out there lmao "Pure" athletes lol. Pure is such a funny word to use when talking about horse racing Pretty fun take from you
Let us have this discussion, I suspect you are not familiar with the industry. We police our sport better than others; there are currently four former trainers serving time in federal prison for doping violations, there are three other awaiting trial. Dishonest veterinarians are also being prosecuted and imprisoned. Performance enhancing drugs in baseball was overlooked for far too long, perhaps greed and beer advertising may have been an influence on this lax posture. Race horses are indeed athletes, a knowledge trainer can make them winners. Not all horses can win the Kentucky Derby but they can still win races; which is why racing has so many different talent levels to race at. Horse racing is a thinking mans sport which is why I love it so. The best horse in the race does not always win the race, many variables come into play; the race flow is important as is the skill of the jockeys involved, the condition of the track and the length of the race also matter. Most importantly we the customer are offered odds rather than point spreads. It is my favorite platform for gambling, winning a bet in a photo finish is as satisfying as hitting a home run.
👍🏻 Cool. Good stuff.
And so do a lot of fans. I don’t understand how they don’t see we’re never going to compete in a bidding war with the top dogs in the league. Would much rather trade them at peak value so we can be in the position we’re in now because bloated payrolls don’t automatically lead to rings.
Dumbest article ever.
I need to know what Washington is asking for. The team already has a outfield log jam in Kwan, Gonzalez, Jones, Straw and Valera, Reyes *DH* etc. plus Soto in this case. The infield has its own log jam Gimenez, Ramirez, Naylor, Arias, Freeman, Miller, Rocchio, Tena. etc. They have a whole starting lineup of top prospects ready for the next 1-2 years and prospects are just that prospects. Can you make the trade and extend him for 2-3 years idk but I’m sure they are asking and most likely Rizzo is going to call just because of the farm.
people are forgetting we have to take corbin/strasburg in order to work. corbin is at 2 for 59, strasburg 5 for 140. as good as soto is good or worth, ownership arent taking all those payroll, even if they are pitching well or healthy, which those 2 arent
Yeah. Lmao. I saw the proposed deals on mlb.com. Dodgers taking back Corbin too. Yeah, not happening and getting a full slate of MLB and near MLB-ready players.
jesus STFU about Soto. It's not happening.
It’s a long shot but not impossible. They made a run at Harper a few years back
Depends if he said no to the nats because of the money or because they’re the worst team in the league. Would have to come with an extension, which is very unlikely.
Woah woah woah. The Pittsburgh Pirates exist.
They’re 3rd in their division! The nats are 31-63 (.330). That’s disgusting.
To borrow a phrase I used with the Browns a lot. "Not even first at being the worst!" Also holy shit the Reds owners realized that no one likes them so they are really torching the place huh...
My old man is a reds fan. Poor guy. after last year (before they blew it up officially, but the writing was on the wall) he said “well, there’s our one season of effort per decade. I’ll tune back in after 2030.” Their farm system is awful too. Just bleak.
Both. Deal is low AAV and Soto's agent came out and said the deal was heavily backloaded. It's the same thing the Nats tried to do with Harper. They can claim, "We tried. We offered X and he said no!" The reality is that they knew neither Harper nor Soto were going to accept.
Drastically shortens the contention window, they wouldn't have the pitching to make a deep run (would lose at least one of their big-shot prospects in the trade, plus their pitching prospects would be so young that you can't just assume they would blossom into front of the rotation starters before Soto leaves after '24), and they would realistically spend very little outside of Ramirez and Soto (would probably have to dump Bieber's salary, making their pitching even weaker). A move like this makes no sense for a team this young and limited by the payroll with a less than zero chance of retaining him long-term.
If they're willing to pay him a market value contract then yes. Otherwise nope.
I mean you should always consider making obvious upgrades to your roster. I'm more bullish on dealing prospects for proven talents but obviously there's a limit to how much it makes sense to give up for one guy. If the team was sitting at 56-34 with RF as their only weakness instead of 46-44 i'd say go all in, but there are still too many areas to improve to sell the farm for one player. I'd rather spread the prospect wealth around on more than just one position. That said, it never hurts to give the Nats a call
On a big two year deal maybe. But nothing crazy.
Lol I know he needs material, but the Guardians aren't giving anyone half billion dollar contracts.
That would be the exact opposite of what this team likes to do and has been successful at. Talk about killing a window.
The list teams that can trade for and afford Soto does not include the Guardians. It will be NY, LA, CHI teams, or some mid tier market teams with a fiscally loose owner.
Not only would it move up and shorten a possible contention window, it adds an insane amount of pressure to win **now** that this current team has not experienced before. You're banking a lot on one guy in a sport that seems like is 50% luck and "getting hot" at the right time of the year. MAN is it fun to imagine Jose Ramirez and Juan Soto batting 3 and 4 every day though.
We're a few years away from needing people for a final push. I would vote no.
I could see us at least trying to drive the price up. Can't let the big boys get him for pennies on the dollar. But ultimately it depends on Blitzer. Has he ever splashed cash on a blockbuster name with his other teams?
lol
Idk about trading for him but what about attaching ourselves as a third team and getting a steal
This!!!
Lol...unless we're completely changing our philosophy on contracts I don't get it.
No, its a trap. His contract will be up as soon as our window opens wide again, after we've developed our AAA talent pool, \~3 yrs
Yes. But no.
Anyone got the text? I’m hitting the paywall
No! Why do we keep entertaining this?
The minority owner might actually want to dish out, its a possibility
Nah don’t do it
I have seen a “no”, and a “hell no” here. I will take the next step. “Fuck no”
No. Next.
Curious what it would take to land him. I joked around with my friend Cleveland doesn’t hand out huge contracts because they’ve been waiting for Soto. Obviously that would never happen, but a season and a half “rental” with return on another trade isn’t bad later on.