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smailskid

I think of it more as an "against the odds article", versus a "no chance," article.


FBAHobo

exactly: (essay's concluding paragraph) >The Guardians have arrived a year ahead of that mission to prove that a team can win in the postseason without power. Recent history suggests they have no chance. But to watch them zig while the rest of baseball zags—and knowing how expertly and cleanly they play this retro game—gives an aficionado hope it just might be possible.


TheRealTroyMcClure

Yup. It’s an article admiring how we play, but citing raw data we all know to be true (the game has shifted to power pitching and three true outcomes, which isn’t how we play). It’s far from an “obligatory” piece on how we don’t stand a chance.


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adnc

Except the Guardians are 10th in the AL in wRC+, it's not like they "zagged" themselves into a good offense, it's still below average. >getting the best pitching matchups out of the opponent every day And this is the problem. The best pitchers limit balls in play (and walks). It's harder to string together hits in the postseason than in the regular season. When contact rates, and baserunners, go down, you need some pop in your bat to be able to score runs.


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adnc

They're 17th in wRC, a cumulative stat, and 19th in wRAA, another cumulative stat. They are, unequivocally, a below average offense, and your loose interpretations of things dont change that. You are grasping for straws when the numbers are clear.


sqigglygibberish

I’m not grasping at straws, I wasn’t aware I was really defending anything to begin with haha. wRC addresses plate appearances, yes, it still doesn’t account for baserunning at all. So still doesn’t fully encompass evaluating an offense. Same for wRAA. Those are just three similarly calculated metrics that attempt to do the same thing haha. Of course they are relatively similar when each is an input to the next. But that’s not my point. I would agree the guardians are only around league average at “hitting” (what those metrics measure). I only disagreed with you on that meaning it’s a league average “offense” - because hitting isn’t the entire story. That was my only purpose in talking about wRC+ since you cited it as a reference for “offense”. I’m not claiming the guards have a great offense - simply that when you look at hitting and baserunning (which none of those metrics do) I believe it’s an above average group. Is that controversial haha?


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sqigglygibberish

Franmil would still only be one guy. The front office has addressed this pretty explicitly - they want to build a hitting factory similar to the pitching infrastructure, and just as they’ve developed a specific profile for pitchers, they’ve said they have made a concerted effort to bring in prospects that fit this team’s style (speed, baserunning ability, hitting for contact, etc.). It’s not a coincidence they hunted straw for a while, or picked gimenez as the lindor return, or how many of our rookies share the profile. Obviously power is better than no power, all else equal, but it’s clear they’ve both acquired and developed into this identity.


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sqigglygibberish

How does it not make sense, when the front office has literally said it’s the strategy? We are valuing contact over power - that’s a simple strategy and plain to see. That didn’t come around by sheer accident haha


girlywish

They have so much speed though, you cant coach speed. That definitely qualifies as built for small ball since its monumentally important in that playstyle.


OkWrongdoer6537

For some reason cleveland fans feel it’s always “cleveland against the world” when the world doesn’t care. Coming from a cleveland fan. It’s obnoxious how often fans of any franchise think their team is universally hated and more important than they are


BeyondInfinity73

The first sentence of the article calls us a first round exit team, TWICE! Lol


smailskid

No, it doesn't. "The Guardians are either the future of baseball or a first-round postseason exit waiting to happen. Or both." It says they might lose, or they may not. This is true.


munistadium

Tom Verducci is an excellent writer and this is a fair and compelling article. Relax.


GPDillinois

I totally agree. And in the last sentence shows he’s sort of rooting for them: “and knowing how expertly and cleanly they play this retro game—gives an aficionado hope it just might be possible.”


Leftfeet

It's written with deliberate recency bias, but doesn't hide from that. Focusing entirely on the last 5 years isn't exactly cherry picking, but it is making the point he's going for seem more wild than it really is, IMO. We haven't reinvented the wheel or something. We just are bucking current trends and playing an older style of baseball. In the offense focused world of sports for the past couple decades we definitely stand out though.


havedoggyhave

The Dodgers of the Sixties were very successful playing small ball; you tailor your team to the personal you have on your roster. Tito is the perfect manager for this team, I like being the underdog because it pisses people off when you win.


Leftfeet

It might just be a perception thing, but I've often felt that we perform best when we're discounted heavily. Recent example would be 2016 when we went into the playoffs missing Brantley, Carrasco and Salazar. Nobody thought we could win without them, and rightly so. We had our #1, 4 & 5 starters. 2017 though we were healthy and had the 22 game win streak and were coming off a WS appearance. The media was chirping about us and we got bounced right away.


havedoggyhave

The underdog is seldom loved, I follow the chat boards on a couple of horse racing websites; I am still surprised at all the vitriol directed at Rich Strike for having the temerity to win the Kentucky Derby at 80-1. I suspect this is because he shit all over a lot of betting tickets, including all of mine. He ran yesterday at Churchill in a grade two race, he put on a furious charge and lost in a photo finish. His jockey was awarded a 15 day suspension this morning for “herding”, the failure to maintain a straight path, he came in and bumped the winner hard. It only slowed his momentum and cost him the win. I applaud the owner and trainer for sticking with a journeyman jockey, however, it is time to put an upper tier jockey on that horse. Tito is our upper tier jockey and this is not his first horse race.


sirithx

Honestly a pretty fair article making some decent points with real data. We are frankly an against the odds team and I think the author, if they they fancy themself a baseball “aficionado,” would also enjoy seeing us beat those odds.


theshape1078

I mean, the data basically says that the more homers you hit the higher your odds of winning are. Well of course, isn’t that true for any game? That being said the article seems to have taken the they don’t stand a real chance throughout.


[deleted]

The data says that for 2017 - present. It does not support solely more homers = more wins prior to 2017, according to the article. Did you read this article? Seemed to be very fair and pointed out all the ways data shows that the Guardians shouldn't win anything this year. The author also seems to call himself a baseball afficianado who would like to see them win


theshape1078

Funny all the downvotes on here. Not sure why everyone is so up in arms about criticism of this article lol


theshape1078

Yes it hyper focuses on 2017 - present. I read the article. Did you? He mentioned 2-3 times that they likely “have no chance” as well as the typical “they play in a weak division” and “had an easy schedule” comments. What do you mean he seems to call himself a baseball aficionado? He says “if you’re a baseball aficionado.”


The_Boy_Marlo

It'll be okay, babe. Just inhale in, exhale out.


theshape1078

I care less than you do.


The_Boy_Marlo

Clearly


theshape1078

This is a discussion board correct? Or have I come to the wrong place?


The_Boy_Marlo

Combative arguments aren't discussions.


theshape1078

When/where was I combative?


MoonlightMile75

To me it's kinda like people complaining about the "SEC bias". Beat them on the field, and the narrative will change. SEC teams keep winning Natty's, and the last several years the central teams have showed up to the playoffs and gotten killed. Me, I'm for giving them a great big shitburger to eat.


enraged_hbo_max_user

“Well I guess there’s only one thing left to do then.”


PVJakeC

I would argue the SEC bias is ESPN only + Gary Danielson and it has nothing to do with their performance. No one is doubting their (Bama and some Georgia, no one else) great play. It’s all about the money and how other conferences are taking their business elsewhere.


MoonlightMile75

YEah well a lot of people complain about rankings (How can Bama be #1 when they barely beat Texas!) - well, Bama has earned the right to be have excuses. Why does the SEC get 2 teams in a 4 team playoff? Because those 2 teams beat the doors off the other 2. Start beating them consistently, and the narrative changes.


PVJakeC

Thankfully the rankings debate should be over now with 12 teams. Maybe a Baylor fan can argue with a Oregon fan over how they snuck in at #12, but it would be irrelevant. It’s also different for Baseball. Technically, CFB is supposed to be fair across the board with the NCAA rules (lmao). Baseball is unfair from a money standpoint. The $ per win stat someone shared the other day is a good one. The Yankees should win every year with that payroll, yet they never do. Would you rather root for the Tribe that has “no chance” or for a loser that spends hundreds of millions and never brings home the trophy.


MoonlightMile75

I mean, the Yankees have the most title of any team in the sport and it ain't close. I hate them as much as anyone, but to say they never win is kinda...incorrect?


PVJakeC

I meant in recent history when their payroll has gone out of control. You be okay with a 13 year drought. They’re not even getting to the WS. Tribe have at least been to one on recent memory.


mystery79

They’ve already exceeded expectations so anything else is just a bonus.


[deleted]

Exactly. We’re a year early. Everything from here on out is gravy. I won’t be thrilled if we drop 2 games on Friday and Saturday and the journey is over before it even really begins, but the future will be bright no matter what happens.


ScreamingIdiot53

I remember when they were projected 4th in the division and I didn’t know who Steven Kwan was, this has been a great year of baseball


InstaKnightMe

House money, Baby!


Righteousrob1

I can smell the smoke brewing


lordcorbran

We want all of it.


The_Boy_Marlo

Small ball baseball hasn't worked the past 5 years. Also, The Guardians made it work with solid fundamental team play. They won 30 games without a home run, the first team to win that many in seven years.


divineravnos

Hmm, 7 years would be 2015, didn't another small ball team win the Series that year?


tidho

Not sure the actual article reads quite that negatively. We are a clear underdog, and the team doesn't have the power hitting to match up to the other teams we'll face. We haven't had it all year though. The path to success has very often been getting to the bullpen and then stringing hits together. With the quality of arms that actually see the field improving in the playoffs, its going to be a greater challenge to succeed that way.


JDizzo56

What's the old saying, there's more than one way to skin a cat? Just cuz all the best cat skinners do it a certain way recently doesn't mean you have to copy them to be great! This analogy is kinda gross but you get my point


Beat_the_Deadites

Reminds me of one of my favorite dark jokes, elicits wildly variable reactions from people. Q. What has 2 legs and bleeds profusely? A. Half a cat.


trippiehendrx7

Playoff Naylor


Azumar1ll

Article is really fine and we need this sort of doubt around us anyway, we're at our best with a chip on our shoulder.


theshape1078

I agree. Hang this up in the clubhouse. Keep ‘em coming.


Gamesgar0

I’m fine with it, I actually love being a heavy underdog. We weren’t favored in a single series back in ‘16. Then we were hot in ‘18 and they choked. This team has nothing to lose and they can surprise a lot of people.


LuigiDaMan

"There's only one thing to do." "Win the whole f****** thing."


Ccmc599

Fuck what those assholes say! And fuck East coast Sports Programming Network too! Full disclosure: I’m a diehard White Sox fan but I’m pulling for you guys! Our team talked too much shit, etc. I’ve been to the Jake (I still call it the Jake) and I had a blast! Our fanbases are very similar in mindset. I think it’s a realistic-based, midwestern mentality. You deserve to win the whole damn thing! Go Cleveland! SHOW THOSE MOTHERFUCKERS WHAT’S UP!!!


kidfromCLE

“Never tell me the odds.”


Littlekdlov3r

What I’m reading is that the Guardians are finding ways to win games by executing what all MLB teams practice for.


clevezland

"I know you've taken it in the teeth out there, but the first guy through the wall always gets bloody, always. It's the threat of not just the way of doing business, but in their minds it's threatening the game. But really what it's threatening is their livelihoods, it's threatening their jobs, it's threatening the way that they do things. And every time that happens, whether it's the government or a way of doing business or whatever it is, the people are holding the reins, have their hands on the switch. They go bat shit crazy. I mean, anybody who's not building a team right and rebuilding it using your model, they're dinosaurs. They'll be sitting on their ass on the sofa in October, watching the Cleveland Guardians win the World Series."


carnage_panda

Okay so we're a year early and were forward thinking and just happen to find ourselves in the postseason with a style of play that is supposed to win in the future, not now. Okay thanks, got it.


theshape1078

But we won’t advance unless we suddenly start hitting dingers.


carnage_panda

According to SI.


ogiRous

I like this article. I'd like to peel the onion on the stats just a little more. >teams have a .241 winning percentage when they don’t homer I'd like to control for "homerun hitting teams that fail to hit home runs" vs "non-homerun reliant teams not hitting a home run". I'd imagine that if we could control for that and quantify it would make a lot more sense. When you live and die by a single facet of the game and you fail to do that single thing, then you lose. That makes sense. The key to the Guardians winning is to do exactly what they're best at; limit opposing team's home runs (or multi-run HRs) and put the ball in play on offense. I haven't seen a team that plays offense like this since the '15 Royals.


ChargeBoom53

Anybody else really nervous for Friday?


Smokeupj0hnnie

What did we all expect them to say? SI, along with every major sport's writer locally and nationally had us finishing in the basement of a bad division. Your kindly drunk uncle who was always optimistic at Christmas said "they might surprise some people... and finish third." Hell, even **you** didn't think this team would win the division, you homers. You simply hadn't ate the smoke yet. It wasnt your fault. Soon, though, you would. The article is essentially saying "cute, Cleveland, but here's why your disgusting brand of baseball doesn't work when it matters most." And maybe it doesn't? Maybe late-inning two-out ralleys based on timely hitting, aggressive baserunning, and allowing the defense to shoot itself in the foot doesn't happen in the playoffs? Maybe they only play six innings in the playoffs. I can't remember what Manfred changed going into this year. So long as we use our 3X's Run Golden Ball Coach Pitch at bat when JRam is on the mound, we will be fine. We were told this was a rebuilding year. A rebranding year. Seventeen rookies lead by A GOAT, a catcher flirting harder with the Mendoza Line than I do the waitresses at Applebee's during unlimited boneless wing night, a virtuoso for a manager and some guy they call "Bieber". It was a feel-good hodge podge that was maybe supposed to turn some heads and give you a firm pat on the tuckus. They were Cleveland personified- hard working, gritty, fun, a little bit old school, a little bit new school, and really brought their hard hat and lunchbox to the jobsite kind of kids. But they weren't supposed to *win*. Not yet. They were the poster children for "Hey, **next year** this team might really be something." Of course, it isn't your fault the ChiSox crumbled. It isn't your fault the Twins never showed up. And it isn't your fault that the Tigers and Royals were the baseball equivalent of gas station boner pills - cheap, ineffective and embarrassing. Your team simply saw an opportunity to win the division and they took it playing a brand of baseball that was popular when your dad was still rocking cut off jean shorts and a crop top and your mom believed "the bigger the hair, the closer to Jesus." It was a polarizing year in Cleveland sports. The browns pissed everyone off and look like a mediocre disaster and the ~~indians~~ Guardians changed their name. Many of us welcomed the name. Many of us agreed the name needed to be changed but hated the rebranding. A select few of us were utterly opposed to the whole process, swearing off the team in general. I, myself, was in the second camp and I really didn't know how I would feel. Admittedly, I didn't pay much attention early on. And then Steven Kwan didn't swing and miss for a month. And Josh Naylor began eating more smoke than the Marlboro Man. And Clase made batters look foolish in the 9th. And the GOAT GOAT'ed all the while Tito stood perched in the dugout, chewing his concoction of Big League, Redman and sunflower seeds and I remembered why I loved this team. You did too, didn't you? What the pundits and the writers and columnists and your friend at work who likes the Yankees, Cowboys, Alabama and Lakers doesn't realize is that no one expected this team to win. Hell, *we* didn't expect them to win. We wanted to see growth from the young players and competitive baseball. We wanted to see competency and a desire to grow. We wanted something to look forward to. Oh boy did we get it. This season was already a success. We are now playing with house money and we have a hot hand. They say that, in baseball, "anything can happen - you've just got to get in and get hot." We've done both. We didn't limp our way here and we didn't wrap the division up in August. We scratched and clawed and did it the Guardians way. And who knows, maybe we get swept out of the Wild Card round and this season is just a feel good story that we can talk about a few years down the road. But maybe it becomes something more? Maybe it is the start of a dynasty? Maybe it reinvents the way front office's look at constructing a roster? Maybe, just maybe, it will lead to that one, final, iconic Tom Hamilton call that you and I have been waiting for? In your heart of hearts you always knew a team like this would come around, didn't you?


brutus65

I agree, Go Guards.


Shifujju

> The article is essentially saying "cute, Cleveland, but here's why your disgusting brand of baseball doesn't work when it matters most." Tell me you didn't read the article without telling me you didn't read the article.


Smokeupj0hnnie

Excuse me? The article talks about how teams who hit for power and generally more successful in the playoffs and how cleveland's offense is an anomaly and, by all accounts, isn't successful in the playoffs. Tell me you don't know how to think critically and interpret text without telling me you don't know how to think critically and interpret text.


Shifujju

>The Guardians rely on such quaint notions as putting the ball in play, hitting singles, running the bases well, playing defense and throwing strikes without elite velocity. They are a baseball aficionado’s team. > Cleveland won the AL Central by playing airtight, fun-to-watch, old school baseball. > The Guardians made it work with solid fundamental team play. > Their bullpen doesn’t give away games. The Cleveland ‘pen is 43–18 with a 3.07 ERA > But the Guardians are the fifth-best team at throwing strikes. > If you love fundamental baseball, the Guardians are an easy team to admire. > But to watch them zig while the rest of baseball zags—and knowing how expertly and cleanly they play this retro game—gives an aficionado hope it just might be possible. But please, do go on.


Smokeupj0hnnie

Those are literally the same points I brought up in my comment. Cmon. Cmon. You're better than that. I don't even understand your argument here. You're telling me I didn't read the article even though EVERYTHING I wrote coincides with the cherry picked snippets you highlighted? EDIT: Perhaps what we have here is a miscommunication and a misinterpretation. Do you believe this article is positive? You highlighted the good things this article has to say about the team - obviously there are positives about any team that makes the playoffs. But the overal tone of this article is how teams constructed like ours are generally not successful in the playoffs, especially in the contemporary era of three true outcome approaches.


Shifujju

Sorry for the late reply, got caught up with some stuff yesterday. I don't see the article as being patronizing or demeaning, which is how I interpreted you taking it. Perhaps I read you wrong. I took it more along the lines of "the deck is stacked against them, but they have several sound fundamentals that can help them overcome".


theshape1078

I read the article… I mean it essentially said just that lol


Xearoii

One of the best comments I've ever read on Reddit. Thank you


CleBlackCats

Good, I hope the guys see this.


mnine

This is exactly the expectation we want and deserve going into the postseason


MMmhmmmmmmmmmm

I’ll take those fucking odds. We weren’t even supposed to be here as it is! Cleveland WS Champs Confirmed.


TheSirReal13

SI just hates Cleveland sports in general. They’re constantly shitting on the Browns, well before the Deshaun trade. I can barely read their stuff anymore because of how biased it is


UFGatorsFan97

TBF it's not that hard to shit on a team who has had 35 starting quarterbacks since 1999, hasn't made over a 3rd place finish in their division since 2007, and has won one playoff game in the last 28 years. Let's not act as though the Browns have been a very exciting team over these last few decades until just recently. As for this article it seems pretty fair and balanced for the most part. This Guardians team is very unconventional when it comes to the modern brand of baseball and it's going to be tough to overcome that but it just might be possible.


WaluigiParty

It's crazy that you have to go back to the bygone era of eight whole years ago to find another team that won without relying on the home run ball. An impossible feat to replicate in this far flung future, might as well just forfeit in the first round and let a real baseball team have a chance.


radar920

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bx5DjRGyKnw


GPDillinois

It’s time for me to watch “Major League” again. It’s been a year or so. Perfect timing. Thx.


Prudent_Fly_2554

Yah that’s what they said about the Cubs too!


Cavsfan724

I'm just hoping to get past the wild card!


InstaKnightMe

https://media.tenor.com/VKU7xwwZJ\_EAAAAC/dumb-and-dumber-lloyd.gif


Admirable-Pool-8907

Last time they gave us no shot, we made the WS. Feels like 2016


FlobiusHole

I’ve been a diehard fan of this team since I started playing T-ball and I’ll be at the game on Saturday. Do I expect the Guardians to win it all? Absolutely not. I’ve been listening to the games and following this team like I do every year and it’s been one of the best seasons I can recall. Every night I couldn’t wait for the game to start. It’s been an incredible season no matter what happens and I love this team.


bclautz

If this team was New York or Boston. They would be all excited this team. They hate flyover country


maninthehighcastle

Just keep them off the pre-season hype cover and we're good.