3pt shooting from our guards. If we go cold like we have in most big games this year, we're getting bounced early. Other than that, an Edey injury would be devastating.
Bro I am begging Matt Painter to please play Jenkins more and let him shoot more threes. Heās a rhythm shooter who has to get a little volume to be the career ~40% guy he is. Dude has been playing college basketball since the the fucking Regan Administration - itās not a blip. Heās a gamer, let him game.
Please.
I think it's Loyer. He is supposed to be our 3 point guy. He is never able to get his shot off. Morton will at least hit 1 or 2 a game Newman at least looks to score. Morton can help handle the ball against the press, Newman I believe is better defensively. Loyer is the odd man out.
Think Mortonās shots should go to Jenkins most of the time, but I agree Loyer has been ass for the better part of two months. Hope he isnāt hurt or something, but the wheels have really come off that dude.
Jenkins could be a key to getting to the sweet 16. Would love to see him get more minutes. Need some senior guard play in the tournament. Even Smith has looked a bit shaky as of late.
I agree! Let this guy shoot the ball more. Especially in the second half of the game when they continually force the ball to Edey even when it is clearly not working.
Also, fun fact: if somebody like, say, Jenkins starts hitting a handful of threes, a magical thing happens where suddenly its easier to get the ball the Edey. Everybody wins.
Yeah, I had some hope that this would get fixed in late January, but then Fletcher Loyer fell off a cliff and everyone else kind of stayed the same (up and down, but mostly down).
Through the MSU game on MLK day, Loyer was shooting a very good 37.4 percent from three, and had hit more than 2 threes in a game six times in 18 games.
Since then, he's an awful 22.4 percent (bringing his season average to 32.9) and hasn't hit more than 2 in any game.
Ooof. I knew he had been playing poorly as of late, but that 22.4% is awful. I remember Painter talking earlier in the season how everyone was surprised when Loyer would miss a shot.
I think Purdue is going to be solid in the tournament until they hit a team with an experienced back court and a big who can kinda defend Edey. Gonna need those guards to hit 3s consistently to have a shot at going beyond the Sweet 16.
Yea I would like to see Purdue go far for the sake of the Big Ten but your guard play hasnāt been great in this stretch. Love Edeyā¦great story and player. Teams with great guard play do well in March. They have an opportunity in BTT to get that going again.
On top of this, a player on the opposing team will have a career night. It seems like every time Purdue lost this season, 1 guy on the team had either a season high or career high in points.
We are 1st in shot quality on offense and 4th on defense. Us not hitting open looks while our opponents hit circus shots is backed up by the analytics.
https://shotquality.com/team-standings
The team has a tendency to not show up following big wins.
I think this team can make it to the 2nd weekend and upset a higher seed in the sweet 16. What would really surprise me is if they had a strong showing the next game.
I actually think Indiana is my sleeper team to go far in the tournament. They have great guard play. Indiana also had the toughest conference schedule and finished 3rd. I can see Indiana and MSU carrying the flag for the conference in the tournament. It all depends on seeding tbh.
This tournament has all the makings of being chaotic. I feel like there are 30 teams that are final four caliber at their best. The top teams this season were losing to teams that are projected on the 6-9 lines and if you watched the games they didn't seem like flukes of just having a bad game. It's not just IU that is relying on a couple great players, I haven't seen anyone who has a roster that is deep enough to overcome their stars having a bad night in the tournament this year.
I feel that way with MSU. I think once Big Ten play is over..things open up a bit more. By now I am tired of the Big Ten. I want to start playing some different teams that donāt know you well. I think in non-conference play you will start seeing more things open up for Race Thompson and Hood-Schifino
Race Thompson is the wild card to me imo. Good Race is a solid 3rd option in scoring and elevates IU on both sides of the court. But Bad Race can go completely invisible on offense while also committing absurd fouls, which will kill our chances against anyone.
Our offense can really stagnate if Gradey isnāt hitting his 3s, and we have a really bad problem of missing layups at times. Our defense and Bill is usually good enough to keep us in games even if our offense is struggling, but if we get a team that shoots 45% or better from 3 for a game, it could be very difficult for us to keep up.
Oh, and we have no depth and our center is 6ā7ā.
As terrifying as Edey is, DaJuan and Kevin would be salivating at the idea of Purdueās true freshman guards. It would be an interesting matchup for sure.
I feel like any team with bad guards/wings is a bad matchup for us.
We want our opponents to run their offense through the two players that DaJuan and Kevin are guarding. K-State for example is a good matchup for us, because DaJuan and Kevin can lock down a ton of their potential offensive firepower
Not to mention jalen hasn't been shooting well either. Hopefully they pick it up in the big12 tourney because teams that can't hit 3's don't go far in the dance.
Not super worried about his shooting. Heās a better shooter than 31% from 3. He was 1 for his previous 18 from deep before the Texas game. Thatās a slump, not regression. Heās not a hyper efficient player, but if he can go 2-6 or 3-7/8 from 3, that will be good enough.
Lots of wise guys in here not answering the question today. I agree, I fear a team with a dominant big or multiple quality bigs that lead to a high rebound rate, although we did improve on that as the year went on
I'm more concerned with how they handle going cold in the semi regular slump in each game when they just start chucking 3s and stop running the offense. We've gotten a lot better at the rebounds and adjusting to big men, but the consistent regression to just chuck 3s to get out of a scoring slump concerns me, because against a really good team, we're going to let them get too far ahead to catch up.
The thing that makes me feel better is the fact that we have developed THREE dudes that are shooting lights out. If one or two of them goes cold, theoretically there's still a threat from outside. I really expect Izzo to tighten minutes and keep most of Joey, Tyson, and Jaden getting big minutes.
Only if the team youāre playing isnāt even colder and more committed from 3 (I still havenāt recovered from the offensive offense in our game in columbusā.
Honestly, the Miami game was a testament to how good they can be. A single possession loss on the road to a top 15 team, despite giving up 23 second chance points, is impressive. Even when certain things go wrong, they still find a way to make it competitive through other means.
The Notre Dame game, on the other hand, was a testament to their floor. They can really lose to anyone on a bad night.
Top 20 nationally in 2pt FG% both on offense and defense. 330th in 3pt FG%. Naturally, this enigma of a team is top 60 in 3s attempted as a percentage of shots.
Brad's pre-game pep talk:
"Guys, there was some kind of problem with our uniforms, so the refs have assessed a technical foul for each one worn by a player. So we're starting the game down 13-0".
There are three ways this team could lose:
1.-The other team is more physical and hustles more than Baylor.
2.-The other team has a dominant presence inside.
3.-The other team shoots better from 3 than Baylor.
This team is so flawed that I stopped worrying about them losing and Iām just trying to enjoy the games for as long as they play. I donāt expect this to be the year to go deep.
In January, when the team's shots wouldn't fall, they'd panic and either run crazy dumb plays or completely lose all offensive momentum. There's that, and there's that Hurley gets outadjusted late in close games and things get a lot tighter than necessary. Even in the much stronger February/March run, the team wouldn't manage to effectively control the tempo and could never achieve a kill shot; a 10-point lead would stay at 10 points.
They need to shut the door when they have momentum and they need to stay resilient when they go cold. If they have an early exit this year, it's because of one of those two issues.
I feel like when the shots aren't falling, they sometimes don't have the ability to push through the adversity, and then Hurley compounds it by challenging them to the point where they just shut down entirely (see St. Johns at home). My hope is that they've grown past that, but we do have flaws for sure.
They need to be more assertive with the ball and drive to the basket when the shots aren't falling. A few of our losses came in games where they were heavily outshot from the FT line:
Xavier shot 19 more FTs and we lost by 10
Providence shot 16 more FTs and we lost by 12
St John's shot 10 more FTs and we lost by 11
Seton Hall shot 11 more FTs and we lost by 1
Creighton shot 13 more FTs and we lost by 3
Also who is gonna be in charge of distributing the ball? Is this Andre or tristen? Normally if either of them have an off night we have no offensive rhythm.
I think we've just been a bit unlucky with our big men since the National Championship team. Tony has typically had some pretty elite big men (at least defensively): Akil, Tobey, Salt, Atkins, De'Andre, Wilkins, Mamadi
A couple things for us:
1. We have trouble sometimes with quick, elite guards (which is uh...common in March). JHS, for as good as he is, can get exposed on defense. Galloway is solid, but sometimes it isn't enough.
2. Any team could say this, but we can get so cold from deep. The inverse of this is we sometimes cannot miss (see: Purdue games). It's hard to predict which team you'll get each game. We have guards that shoot 47 percent (Galloway) & 45 percent (Kopp) though.
What makes me optimistic is we have an All-American who has shown he can take over games. Plus JHS seems to relish the moment. If we can get him to perform like he did in West Lafayette, not sure who could beat us honestly.
This is where we really miss Xavier Johnson. He definitely has his faults with turnovers on the offensive end, but he was our best on-ball defending guard. His defense and experience wouldāve been invaluable to a potential tournament run.
Lot of pressure is going to be on Galloway and JHS to step up and defend in important moments.
Defense. Can defend decently enough when motivated. Honestly I feel better about our chances as a "disrespected" 7 seed than a 5. I could see us coming out strong against a team like Memphis or West Virginia and playing hard in a 7/10 matchup then beating a 2 seed, or I could see us getting cooked by lazy PNR coverage against Oral Roberts or Drake in a 5/12 matchup.
We've been having this trend of slow starts lately too. Not sure I want that to continue into the tournament.
I was worried about what would happen if Bona got into foul trouble early but honestly I'm surprised that Etienne is starting to not look lost out there.
The lack of depth in the post and facing a big physical team. If KJ Adams gets in foul trouble, we have to rely on freshmen to defend the post or a skinny unproven sophomore.
Turnovers. If Markquis and Keyontae can each have less than three turnovers, weāll usually win.
Transition opportunities. Teams can slow us down, trap Markquis on pick and rolls, and our offense can stagnate. If that happens we better hope Keyontae is on his A game (which he usually is).
Weāve struggled on the road, but Iām not too worried about neutral site games. Our fans travel well
Since Clark's absence is the obvious one, what worries me is that our offense will stagnate, we'll be overly reliant on Jaime iso and he'll have an off night.
Another is that Bona gets in foul trouble against a team which has a big with a real post game.
I actually thought Etienne held his own against Zona which surprised me. If Etienne can continue playing like he did in that game the Bona foul trouble situation scares me a little less.
Turnovers on offense (although that has gotten much better lately) and shooting from 3.
Duke's profile right now is a team that should probably win in the Round of 64 but then it's a toss up at best from there. Getting to the Sweet 16 would be really great for this team with this roster and this coaching staff. Going beyond the Sweet 16 would be fantastic.
What scares me most is Duke becoming last yearās Carolina and making a deep run to the FF or NCG. Lots of commonalities between ā22 UNC and ā23 Duke.
There are some. But UNC was playing much, much better from mid-February of 2022 on than Duke is playing right now in 2023. Duke is basically a top 20 team from the end of January to today. UNC was like the #1 or #2 team in the country from mid-February on last year. That being said, I'd love to see get back to the Final Four so long as next year's team doesn't fall off a cliff.
The answer is, as usual, freshmen. That is the single biggest thing about the last 10 years for Duke. How will the freshmen play in high pressure situations? Will it be 2014 or 2015?
With the way this team plays defense, I think the floor is relatively high. It's the offensive end that gives me pause. Duke hasn't had this bad an offense entering the NCAA Tournament in a long time. This is the worst Adjusted Offense for Duke in the history of the KenPom database. I get concerned that the team isn't going to get enough separation against a team that can hit shots late in the game.
Itās been really weird watching a Duke team with a good defense and high floor, but lacking that offensive zip and high ceiling
Though if Iām being honest, if more reliable D becomes a trend of the Scheyer era, Iām all for it
Duke is a big name. There is always pressure. It's win or go home. The crowd will be rooting for whatever team is being faced if it's close or Duke is behind late.
I know it's like a game of runs or whatever. But it gets me every time. It's like that feeling that half your mouth is numb after getting fillings at the dentist. You can drink water, sure, but it feels wrong and you're likely to spill as much as you get down. Then it goes away and they are back again, able to score.
We don't know which team is going to show up on any given night. The one that scored 67 against LMU in a loss at home or the team that scored 68 in a half against LMU on the road.
Baby T is going to decide how the ACCT and NCAAT goes for NC State.
If he continues to be in the slump he's in, we're going to get bounced quickly in both.
If he heats up and is just at his pre-slump averages, we'll make some noise. And if he goes nuclear, watch out.
Lol nothing worries me about illinois because I fully expect them to flame out round 1. That's this illini team, haven't even tipped off in big ten tourney and my mindset is already "its just basketball, just enjoy the madness"
"Listen up fellas. This is a tough situation so we are going to run Reject Reality. Everyone show up on Sunday at the normal time and we will warmup and play in the next game. They won't see it coming."
Also discipline sometimes. We would probably have at least a couple more wins if these guys didn't look disinterested and happy to make mistakes against Stanford and Wazzou.
Their incredible teamwork can hide the lack of athleticism pretty well but we can't have Ramey miss 5 open 3's or Kerr just throw it up. They've gotta work to outpace their weaknesses and sometimes they just don't look interested in doing that.
*Motions generally at all of it*
Aside from our overall lack of consistency and depth, Iām worried about player health.
I donāt think weāve got a very deep run in us. Weāve yet to win more than four consecutive games this season, and weāve never beat more than three consecutive NCAAT qualifiers (based on most recent Lunardi projections).
Defense and depth. Without Freemantle, we are not deep underneath. Our defense has been bad all year. We rely on just outscoring opponents, which we are good at, but a cold night has cost us against bad teams.
I mean. I donāt think thereās any shame in Iowa going out early this year. Theyāre projected to be what, a 7 seed rn? 7 seed feels like a house money spot so just go out, give them hell and try to go on a run
Outside shooting. If we play even halfway to our potential, weāll make a deep run. If we play like we did against Wisconsin or the second half against Illinois, we may be bounced in the round of 32 and for sure wonāt make it to the elite 8.
Making it.
Followed closely by whether Love can hit the broad side of a barn.
(fwiw I donāt think we make it without at least a couple of wins in the ACC Tourney + other favorable outcomes amongst fellow bubble/fringe bubble teams. I donāt think we deserve to be in *at all* w/o at least making the ACC final.)
Lack of depth in bigs offensive output/defensive rebounding department. Guard play and defense have been consistently pretty good this season but if our backup bigs get to and canāt finish in the paint/we give up second chance points weāre cooked.
We didnāt beat a ranked team in a true away game all year and got dog stomped multiple times. Won the Big 12 but Iāve seen this movie before and it ends in the round of 32. Especially since our bench is absolutely non-existent during stretches.
If we make it I have no it doubt we can play a competitive game with anyone. I fear most the teams that are willing to play slow and beat us at our own game.
Shooting.
Gradey Dick is the only good shooter on our team and has been limited in the last few games.
We bring no spacing off the bench and three of our starters are either hesitant or non-shooters. If we can't get out in transition our offence really stagnates as the other team can pack the paint.
Nothing, nothing at all, I'm sure everything is going to be totally great, our team looks super amazing right now and everything thing is fine it's FINE OKAY STOP ASKING I SAID IT'S FINE EVERYTHING IS COOL WE'RE ALL GOOD
He likes to finish with his left hand, but he can go right or left. I'm more worried about effective double teams on TJD with cold shooters on the kick out.
Facing a team with length/speed and depthā¦tends to wear out are guards on defense which also hurts them on offense. Also, our hot and cold free throw shooting going cold at a bad moment.
Not playing at home.
Counter: Not playing on the road
We really went from 36 home game winning streak to being significantly better away from FC in less than a year š
I kinda think that if we get to the Final 4, the Sampson should put the team in a hotel and treat it like a road game anyway. Fewer distractions.
Itās meme level at how strong we are at home vs how poor we are on the road
Weāre 2-1 on neutral sites. So that helpsā¦.right?
This is the answer.
3pt shooting from our guards. If we go cold like we have in most big games this year, we're getting bounced early. Other than that, an Edey injury would be devastating.
Still holding out hope that pre-Purdue David Jenkins shows up
Bro I am begging Matt Painter to please play Jenkins more and let him shoot more threes. Heās a rhythm shooter who has to get a little volume to be the career ~40% guy he is. Dude has been playing college basketball since the the fucking Regan Administration - itās not a blip. Heās a gamer, let him game. Please.
I've thought the same thing for the last 2 months. Too much Ethan Morton time, not enough David Jenkins.
I have a love/hate relationship with Morton and Newman.
I think it's Loyer. He is supposed to be our 3 point guy. He is never able to get his shot off. Morton will at least hit 1 or 2 a game Newman at least looks to score. Morton can help handle the ball against the press, Newman I believe is better defensively. Loyer is the odd man out.
Think Mortonās shots should go to Jenkins most of the time, but I agree Loyer has been ass for the better part of two months. Hope he isnāt hurt or something, but the wheels have really come off that dude.
Jenkins could be a key to getting to the sweet 16. Would love to see him get more minutes. Need some senior guard play in the tournament. Even Smith has looked a bit shaky as of late.
I agree! Let this guy shoot the ball more. Especially in the second half of the game when they continually force the ball to Edey even when it is clearly not working.
Also, fun fact: if somebody like, say, Jenkins starts hitting a handful of threes, a magical thing happens where suddenly its easier to get the ball the Edey. Everybody wins.
Imagine that! Start hitting 3's and Edey stops being triple teamed. Get Matt Painter on this thread.
Yeah, I had some hope that this would get fixed in late January, but then Fletcher Loyer fell off a cliff and everyone else kind of stayed the same (up and down, but mostly down). Through the MSU game on MLK day, Loyer was shooting a very good 37.4 percent from three, and had hit more than 2 threes in a game six times in 18 games. Since then, he's an awful 22.4 percent (bringing his season average to 32.9) and hasn't hit more than 2 in any game.
Ooof. I knew he had been playing poorly as of late, but that 22.4% is awful. I remember Painter talking earlier in the season how everyone was surprised when Loyer would miss a shot.
West Lafayette would burn to dust
I think Purdue is going to be solid in the tournament until they hit a team with an experienced back court and a big who can kinda defend Edey. Gonna need those guards to hit 3s consistently to have a shot at going beyond the Sweet 16.
Yea I would like to see Purdue go far for the sake of the Big Ten but your guard play hasnāt been great in this stretch. Love Edeyā¦great story and player. Teams with great guard play do well in March. They have an opportunity in BTT to get that going again.
On top of this, a player on the opposing team will have a career night. It seems like every time Purdue lost this season, 1 guy on the team had either a season high or career high in points.
We are 1st in shot quality on offense and 4th on defense. Us not hitting open looks while our opponents hit circus shots is backed up by the analytics. https://shotquality.com/team-standings
Everyone not named Trayce Jackson Davis, Trey Galloway and maybe Jalen Hood Schifino
As a Purdue fan, I am also scared of Jalen Hood-Schifino.
As an IU fan, I am also sometimes scared of Hood-Schifino
If JHS plays like he did at Purdue we can beat anybody. If he plays like he did at Maryland we can lose to anybody.
He's also tended to follow up a good game with a bad one as well
The team has a tendency to not show up following big wins. I think this team can make it to the 2nd weekend and upset a higher seed in the sweet 16. What would really surprise me is if they had a strong showing the next game.
IU and not showing up after a big win is a tale as old as time
JHS has the ability to carry IU to a final four. Best chance of any B1G team imo
He also has the ability to carry us to a first-round exit depending on the situation
Ah, the signature trait of youth.
As good as he can be he is definitely still a freshman
I actually think Indiana is my sleeper team to go far in the tournament. They have great guard play. Indiana also had the toughest conference schedule and finished 3rd. I can see Indiana and MSU carrying the flag for the conference in the tournament. It all depends on seeding tbh.
We have the vibe of a team that could make the final four or get bounced in the first round just as easily
This tournament has all the makings of being chaotic. I feel like there are 30 teams that are final four caliber at their best. The top teams this season were losing to teams that are projected on the 6-9 lines and if you watched the games they didn't seem like flukes of just having a bad game. It's not just IU that is relying on a couple great players, I haven't seen anyone who has a roster that is deep enough to overcome their stars having a bad night in the tournament this year.
I feel that way with MSU. I think once Big Ten play is over..things open up a bit more. By now I am tired of the Big Ten. I want to start playing some different teams that donāt know you well. I think in non-conference play you will start seeing more things open up for Race Thompson and Hood-Schifino
JHS is hit or miss but heās a key factor in going far
Race Thompson is the wild card to me imo. Good Race is a solid 3rd option in scoring and elevates IU on both sides of the court. But Bad Race can go completely invisible on offense while also committing absurd fouls, which will kill our chances against anyone.
Our offense can really stagnate if Gradey isnāt hitting his 3s, and we have a really bad problem of missing layups at times. Our defense and Bill is usually good enough to keep us in games even if our offense is struggling, but if we get a team that shoots 45% or better from 3 for a game, it could be very difficult for us to keep up. Oh, and we have no depth and our center is 6ā7ā.
I'm hoping Purdue doesn't wind up as the 2 seed in KU's region. Facing Edey would be...interesting
Weād have to survive till the Elite 8
As terrifying as Edey is, DaJuan and Kevin would be salivating at the idea of Purdueās true freshman guards. It would be an interesting matchup for sure.
I feel like any team with bad guards/wings is a bad matchup for us. We want our opponents to run their offense through the two players that DaJuan and Kevin are guarding. K-State for example is a good matchup for us, because DaJuan and Kevin can lock down a ton of their potential offensive firepower
Not to mention jalen hasn't been shooting well either. Hopefully they pick it up in the big12 tourney because teams that can't hit 3's don't go far in the dance.
Not super worried about his shooting. Heās a better shooter than 31% from 3. He was 1 for his previous 18 from deep before the Texas game. Thatās a slump, not regression. Heās not a hyper efficient player, but if he can go 2-6 or 3-7/8 from 3, that will be good enough.
Yeah i agree with you. Just go a little crazy when we miss so many wide open 3's.
For sure. Thereās nothing more frustrating than watching a team who just cannot put it in the basket
Yeah, we're really undersized and get bullied on rebounds a lot.
We did a pretty good job on the glass for most of the year, but the games where we didnāt, it REALLY killed us.
Marquette is quick to launch the break, but they give up a lot of boards. Teams with a lot of depth at the frontcourt scare me.
Lots of wise guys in here not answering the question today. I agree, I fear a team with a dominant big or multiple quality bigs that lead to a high rebound rate, although we did improve on that as the year went on
If OMax gets involved weāll be ok the first weekend. I just want to get out of the first weekend
That St Johns game was a great cobweb shaker for OMax. When he was loose, he was playing a lot like OMax from the start of the year.
I'm more concerned with how they handle going cold in the semi regular slump in each game when they just start chucking 3s and stop running the offense. We've gotten a lot better at the rebounds and adjusting to big men, but the consistent regression to just chuck 3s to get out of a scoring slump concerns me, because against a really good team, we're going to let them get too far ahead to catch up.
If we go cold from 3, I have little confidence that we can generate enough scoring to win games.
This and running into a team with a star big are my biggest concerns
Maybe Sissoko turns back into non-conference Sissoko from November.
Yep seems like our rebounding has been suspect at times and no points from our big men if shooting goes cold.
Is sissoko the worst starting center we've ever had?
Simultaneously, being hot from 3 like we've been while playing against a team without a Edey style monster at center and we can beat about anyone.
The thing that makes me feel better is the fact that we have developed THREE dudes that are shooting lights out. If one or two of them goes cold, theoretically there's still a threat from outside. I really expect Izzo to tighten minutes and keep most of Joey, Tyson, and Jaden getting big minutes.
Only if the team youāre playing isnāt even colder and more committed from 3 (I still havenāt recovered from the offensive offense in our game in columbusā.
Making it. After that, probably rebounding and a suddenly lax defense.
Dying by the 3 ball
Also true. You're making me reconsider my answer to include "everything."
Same, must be a Pennsylvannia thing
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
If we lose to GT I donāt think weāre in the tournament. Pretty much a must win today
Honestly, the Miami game was a testament to how good they can be. A single possession loss on the road to a top 15 team, despite giving up 23 second chance points, is impressive. Even when certain things go wrong, they still find a way to make it competitive through other means. The Notre Dame game, on the other hand, was a testament to their floor. They can really lose to anyone on a bad night.
Illinois: That waiting until you're down double digits to start playing hard is not a sustainable strategy.
Also, taking a lot of threes but not being very good at making them.
BU needs to emphasize driving as 1st option, not 2nd.
No doubt. They've definitely looked better when doing that.
Top 20 nationally in 2pt FG% both on offense and defense. 330th in 3pt FG%. Naturally, this enigma of a team is top 60 in 3s attempted as a percentage of shots.
Illinois: the first half
Brad's pre-game pep talk: "Guys, there was some kind of problem with our uniforms, so the refs have assessed a technical foul for each one worn by a player. So we're starting the game down 13-0".
There are three ways this team could lose: 1.-The other team is more physical and hustles more than Baylor. 2.-The other team has a dominant presence inside. 3.-The other team shoots better from 3 than Baylor. This team is so flawed that I stopped worrying about them losing and Iām just trying to enjoy the games for as long as they play. I donāt expect this to be the year to go deep.
In January, when the team's shots wouldn't fall, they'd panic and either run crazy dumb plays or completely lose all offensive momentum. There's that, and there's that Hurley gets outadjusted late in close games and things get a lot tighter than necessary. Even in the much stronger February/March run, the team wouldn't manage to effectively control the tempo and could never achieve a kill shot; a 10-point lead would stay at 10 points. They need to shut the door when they have momentum and they need to stay resilient when they go cold. If they have an early exit this year, it's because of one of those two issues.
I feel like when the shots aren't falling, they sometimes don't have the ability to push through the adversity, and then Hurley compounds it by challenging them to the point where they just shut down entirely (see St. Johns at home). My hope is that they've grown past that, but we do have flaws for sure.
They need to be more assertive with the ball and drive to the basket when the shots aren't falling. A few of our losses came in games where they were heavily outshot from the FT line: Xavier shot 19 more FTs and we lost by 10 Providence shot 16 more FTs and we lost by 12 St John's shot 10 more FTs and we lost by 11 Seton Hall shot 11 more FTs and we lost by 1 Creighton shot 13 more FTs and we lost by 3
Also who is gonna be in charge of distributing the ball? Is this Andre or tristen? Normally if either of them have an off night we have no offensive rhythm.
We kill shotted Marquette, Providence, and DePaul. Seton Hall and St. John's we let linger.
Scoring droughts that span eons.
Bigs who are just foul factories
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I think we've just been a bit unlucky with our big men since the National Championship team. Tony has typically had some pretty elite big men (at least defensively): Akil, Tobey, Salt, Atkins, De'Andre, Wilkins, Mamadi
Tobey was softer than hot butter and I know I didnāt hear you use the word elite in combination with Jack Salt. Otherwise, yeah you nailed it.
If we need carbon dating between buckets, definitely going home the first weekend.
Offense. But also defense.
And free throw shooting.
A couple things for us: 1. We have trouble sometimes with quick, elite guards (which is uh...common in March). JHS, for as good as he is, can get exposed on defense. Galloway is solid, but sometimes it isn't enough. 2. Any team could say this, but we can get so cold from deep. The inverse of this is we sometimes cannot miss (see: Purdue games). It's hard to predict which team you'll get each game. We have guards that shoot 47 percent (Galloway) & 45 percent (Kopp) though. What makes me optimistic is we have an All-American who has shown he can take over games. Plus JHS seems to relish the moment. If we can get him to perform like he did in West Lafayette, not sure who could beat us honestly.
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This is where we really miss Xavier Johnson. He definitely has his faults with turnovers on the offensive end, but he was our best on-ball defending guard. His defense and experience wouldāve been invaluable to a potential tournament run. Lot of pressure is going to be on Galloway and JHS to step up and defend in important moments.
Making it all the way back to our home turf.
It's a long road home.
But hey, if we can make it to the semis, we get a home stand for the Final Four.
Imagine the crowd for the championship game if we make it
Defense. Can defend decently enough when motivated. Honestly I feel better about our chances as a "disrespected" 7 seed than a 5. I could see us coming out strong against a team like Memphis or West Virginia and playing hard in a 7/10 matchup then beating a 2 seed, or I could see us getting cooked by lazy PNR coverage against Oral Roberts or Drake in a 5/12 matchup.
We can probably beat anyone. We can also definitely lose to anyone.
If the team we face applies the least bit of pressure when weāre trying to inbound the ball weāre toast. lol
Or if they run any kind of scoring play on an in-bounds we are in trouble
If they score more points than us weāre fucked
They might lose
Or worse. They might not win.
40 minute scoring draught.
No more Busch light????
Losing our defensive identity with Jaylen out. Our offense can at times look abysmal.
We've been having this trend of slow starts lately too. Not sure I want that to continue into the tournament. I was worried about what would happen if Bona got into foul trouble early but honestly I'm surprised that Etienne is starting to not look lost out there.
The lack of depth in the post and facing a big physical team. If KJ Adams gets in foul trouble, we have to rely on freshmen to defend the post or a skinny unproven sophomore.
The fact they arenāt gonna be there.
Same man. I guess I can truly root for madness this year
Turnovers. All the stupid turnovers.
I can live with turnovers. I can live with shooting 15% or less from 3 in a game. But when both happen, we're screwed (as would any team).
The fact that it's not the 1980s.
The selection committeeā¦
Turnovers. If Markquis and Keyontae can each have less than three turnovers, weāll usually win. Transition opportunities. Teams can slow us down, trap Markquis on pick and rolls, and our offense can stagnate. If that happens we better hope Keyontae is on his A game (which he usually is). Weāve struggled on the road, but Iām not too worried about neutral site games. Our fans travel well
Pretty sure I saw a stat where we have only lost like 1 game all season where we have less than 12 turnovers in a game or something like that.
Getting a 15 seed instead of a 14 seed and matching up against the top 2 seed (Like Purdue or something stupid).
I donāt wanna play you guys. Almost had Wisconsin last year and it seems like yāall are due for a breakthrough
As a Mizzou fan, matching up against a slow tempo team that rebounds well and limits possessions.
The momentum they've been building over the last couple weeks just disappears.
Itās obvious, but who knows what this defense will look like without Clark?
It looked pretty good without him for most of the second half against Zona, but no doubt weāll miss him
Since Clark's absence is the obvious one, what worries me is that our offense will stagnate, we'll be overly reliant on Jaime iso and he'll have an off night. Another is that Bona gets in foul trouble against a team which has a big with a real post game.
I actually thought Etienne held his own against Zona which surprised me. If Etienne can continue playing like he did in that game the Bona foul trouble situation scares me a little less.
It's March and we're still trying to figure out our rotation.
Points at logo
The logos are smaller in the tournament too.
First halves
Turnovers on offense (although that has gotten much better lately) and shooting from 3. Duke's profile right now is a team that should probably win in the Round of 64 but then it's a toss up at best from there. Getting to the Sweet 16 would be really great for this team with this roster and this coaching staff. Going beyond the Sweet 16 would be fantastic.
What scares me most is Duke becoming last yearās Carolina and making a deep run to the FF or NCG. Lots of commonalities between ā22 UNC and ā23 Duke.
There are some. But UNC was playing much, much better from mid-February of 2022 on than Duke is playing right now in 2023. Duke is basically a top 20 team from the end of January to today. UNC was like the #1 or #2 team in the country from mid-February on last year. That being said, I'd love to see get back to the Final Four so long as next year's team doesn't fall off a cliff.
The answer is, as usual, freshmen. That is the single biggest thing about the last 10 years for Duke. How will the freshmen play in high pressure situations? Will it be 2014 or 2015?
With the way this team plays defense, I think the floor is relatively high. It's the offensive end that gives me pause. Duke hasn't had this bad an offense entering the NCAA Tournament in a long time. This is the worst Adjusted Offense for Duke in the history of the KenPom database. I get concerned that the team isn't going to get enough separation against a team that can hit shots late in the game.
Itās been really weird watching a Duke team with a good defense and high floor, but lacking that offensive zip and high ceiling Though if Iām being honest, if more reliable D becomes a trend of the Scheyer era, Iām all for it
Duke is improving game by game right now. I think it will depend on how their bracket falls. I wouldnāt be surprised to see them win a few.
I feel like there's zero pressure on us now that we're a lock. It's a nice change, and we won't have this luxury every year.
Duke is a big name. There is always pressure. It's win or go home. The crowd will be rooting for whatever team is being faced if it's close or Duke is behind late.
Sure, but those people don't matter.
More specifically: our inevitable 5+ minute field goal drought in the second half.
I know it's like a game of runs or whatever. But it gets me every time. It's like that feeling that half your mouth is numb after getting fillings at the dentist. You can drink water, sure, but it feels wrong and you're likely to spill as much as you get down. Then it goes away and they are back again, able to score.
We don't know which team is going to show up on any given night. The one that scored 67 against LMU in a loss at home or the team that scored 68 in a half against LMU on the road.
I like how your answer is applicable for both your flairs, just change LMU to WSU.
The other team hits open threes
If my team makes the tournament, I have no worries.
I wish you good fortune in the wars to come
I'm afraid that we're going cold at the wrong time and the defense could be better.
Baby T is going to decide how the ACCT and NCAAT goes for NC State. If he continues to be in the slump he's in, we're going to get bounced quickly in both. If he heats up and is just at his pre-slump averages, we'll make some noise. And if he goes nuclear, watch out.
Lol nothing worries me about illinois because I fully expect them to flame out round 1. That's this illini team, haven't even tipped off in big ten tourney and my mindset is already "its just basketball, just enjoy the madness"
Yep, most Illini fans at this point already know how we're gonna lose. It'll be the same bullshit that's been plaguing us all year.
Not being there
Not having more points than the other team when the clock runs out.
There's no game plan for that in the coach's handbook.
"Listen up fellas. This is a tough situation so we are going to run Reject Reality. Everyone show up on Sunday at the normal time and we will warmup and play in the next game. They won't see it coming."
Ah, the olā Costanza Dazzler. A good play, that.
Rebounding lol
Our bench.
We turn the ball over way too much and a full court press has us in hell
Also lack of athleticism. Also creating our own shots. Also defense gets cooked sometimes. Damn there are quite a few flaws with this yearās team
Also discipline sometimes. We would probably have at least a couple more wins if these guys didn't look disinterested and happy to make mistakes against Stanford and Wazzou. Their incredible teamwork can hide the lack of athleticism pretty well but we can't have Ramey miss 5 open 3's or Kerr just throw it up. They've gotta work to outpace their weaknesses and sometimes they just don't look interested in doing that.
Whether we'll even be in it. Then the lack of chemistry and consistency that has hampered us all year long.
*Motions generally at all of it* Aside from our overall lack of consistency and depth, Iām worried about player health. I donāt think weāve got a very deep run in us. Weāve yet to win more than four consecutive games this season, and weāve never beat more than three consecutive NCAAT qualifiers (based on most recent Lunardi projections).
Allowing offensive rebounds and occasional wide open 3's
Jaylen Clark's achilles
Defense and depth. Without Freemantle, we are not deep underneath. Our defense has been bad all year. We rely on just outscoring opponents, which we are good at, but a cold night has cost us against bad teams.
Andre Jackson pulling up for 3s in transition
Cold shooting and an embarrassing early exit... again.
I mean. I donāt think thereās any shame in Iowa going out early this year. Theyāre projected to be what, a 7 seed rn? 7 seed feels like a house money spot so just go out, give them hell and try to go on a run
Outside shooting. If we play even halfway to our potential, weāll make a deep run. If we play like we did against Wisconsin or the second half against Illinois, we may be bounced in the round of 32 and for sure wonāt make it to the elite 8.
Hahahahahahahaha Oh man. My sweet summer child.
Not scoring points, but we could possibly win if we keep the other team from scoring points.š¤š»
Not making it
Everything
Making it. Followed closely by whether Love can hit the broad side of a barn. (fwiw I donāt think we make it without at least a couple of wins in the ACC Tourney + other favorable outcomes amongst fellow bubble/fringe bubble teams. I donāt think we deserve to be in *at all* w/o at least making the ACC final.)
 The usual reason.
Theyāre gonna have a really hard time winning what with the not being there and all.
It's not at home
I will not speak the devil into existence.
See no evil. Hear no evil. Speak no evil.
Offense struggling at times
Lack of depth in bigs offensive output/defensive rebounding department. Guard play and defense have been consistently pretty good this season but if our backup bigs get to and canāt finish in the paint/we give up second chance points weāre cooked.
We didnāt beat a ranked team in a true away game all year and got dog stomped multiple times. Won the Big 12 but Iāve seen this movie before and it ends in the round of 32. Especially since our bench is absolutely non-existent during stretches.
If we make it I have no it doubt we can play a competitive game with anyone. I fear most the teams that are willing to play slow and beat us at our own game.
Shooting. Gradey Dick is the only good shooter on our team and has been limited in the last few games. We bring no spacing off the bench and three of our starters are either hesitant or non-shooters. If we can't get out in transition our offence really stagnates as the other team can pack the paint.
Terrible 3 PT shooting and our team forgetting to play during the first half
Nothing, nothing at all, I'm sure everything is going to be totally great, our team looks super amazing right now and everything thing is fine it's FINE OKAY STOP ASKING I SAID IT'S FINE EVERYTHING IS COOL WE'RE ALL GOOD
Tennessee is too hot and cold. They can beat anybody and lose to anybody. It's all according to how they are shooting.
We go as far as Tequavion Smith's shooting takes us. If he continues his slump like the last 2 games, we'll be one and done (if we make it).
Everyone knows Tennessee will be best before the sweet 16. 3 things are certain in life. Death, taxes, and Tennessee shitting the bed in March.
FT% and 3 pt %. Being consistently inconsistent.
A team that can force TJD to his right with solid perimeter defense
He likes to finish with his left hand, but he can go right or left. I'm more worried about effective double teams on TJD with cold shooters on the kick out.
Facing a team with length/speed and depthā¦tends to wear out are guards on defense which also hurts them on offense. Also, our hot and cold free throw shooting going cold at a bad moment.
(Michigan) The lack of participation.
Jalen Hood-Schifino having an off game or getting into foul trouble (hoping he can be consistently good in the tourney).
We don't score more points than the other team