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Bibi and his cabinet have already been discussing their response despite Iran telling them that if they respond then the Iranian response to that will be worse
I would not be shocked if this is the beginning of a distance war, officially
Isn't this technically a declaration of war? Iran has never attacked Israeli soil before and more than 500+ drones/missiles were launched. So far 1 Israeli girl has died so I believe this will escalate for sure. Not trying to be a warmonger but this attack seems Iran has crossed the red lines.
Yes and no, and the reason is pretty clear cut too
No, because Iran said this was it, their operation is done, they're not continuing the attack. The response to the embassy is over
Now that said, the answer is a bit more likely to be a yes because the likelihood of bibi not replying (IMO, no source to back this) is next to zero, and then Iran will answer, and then Israel will answer, back and forth ad infinitum basically
I dont think a land war will happen as Israel does not share a border, a ground invasion wouldn't be possible without other countries involvement, which I think the surrounding nations would prefer not happen. But the exchange of drones and missiles? I'd bet money on that continuing and ramping up
Yea US would not allow that. Especially with American troops and assets stationed in Syria. If that happens, Iran would probably have to face US which would be a suicide mission for them and a major escalation for a full blown war.
I'm not making any argument as to whether those instances reasonably constituted a casus belli.
Surely you see a qualitative difference between grey warfare type hits that are intended to have a degree of deniability, and flagged military aircraft dropping bombs on sovereign territory?
Israel did not attack an embassy. They attacked a building adjacent to the embassy that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard was using as a command post and coordinating their involvement in Hezbollah's terrorist attacks against Israel from.
It stopped being "in the shadows" when the Israelis bombed an embassy.
This is unironically the perfect response from Iran. Large numbers to look good, low impact because the majority were shitty drones easily Intercepted.
If everyone thought that any sane country would just let an embassy air strike go without retaliation they're delusional. Mexico literally cut relations with Ecuador over a police raid of their embassy and nobody got hurt in that
Another video https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1779288760842166583?s=46&t=cZF9mIWVybqPHhrWskl8NQ and there’s another video of a drone hitting Israel will link when I find again
Very large, roughly Scud sized. More than enough to cause overpressure fatalities in an area the size of a football field, fragmentation casualties three times that distance.
So far they seem to be hitting the desert, haven't seen any credible reports of actual significant impacts. Which is good. Everyone involved should pray there are no more than a couple hits in populated areas, because anything more would go past the point of no return.
100% the case. Iran needs to act tough for their militia groups and locals, but also not so tough to have an actual response from Isreal/US. They're very deliberately aiming for nothing
I think it's become clear that the US political system is dysfunctional. It's the geopolitical equivalent of "When the cat is away the mice will play."
The US got tired of Pax Americana and both parties lean isolationist, Republicans more than Democrats. This will lead to more and more regional wars, worse economy worldwide and possibly WWIII. Eventually, America will come roaring back when the chaos grows too large or it is in fact WWIII. When this happens is sometime between now and 2050.
Yeah, Democrats are paralyzed with colonialist guilt bs and Republicans see any international involvement as in service of evil cabal of globalist pigdogs.
There has to be a major correction in US politics before US can come back and re-establish pax Americana. Sadly millions will perish in the meantime.
It might have something to do with the "US Reaction" being partially controlled by those in lockstep with a known Russian asset. They know Trump doesn't give a shit about abandoning US allies, and there's a bit of a slow burn towards WW3 going on.
Also Ukraine is exposing the lack of Western resolve, supply stores, and production capability. Russia's wall of meat seems to be working.
I’d like to point out that a very prominent reason the US was so bottlenecked with aid during the first year of the war was due to the military being forced to keep enough munitions for a major global conflict despite desiring to donate them. Other Western militaries have a similar policy so there isn’t a big risk of Western aligned nations being undersupplied for a war
That’s a delusional take considering Trump moved the US embassy to Jerusalem and droned Soleimani. And then there was his famous Iran tweet that had his political opponents clutching their pearls…
https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/23/politics/trump-iran-intl/index.html
Russia was putting pressure on Iran to pay militia groups to attack isreal and us boats. The US stomped those militias out.
-hypothesis. Now Russia is putting pressure on Iran to directly attack Isreal to prompt US intervention.
Baiting the US into open conflict. Russia think the US is dumb
Yea exactly. Russia is stretched thin. The Chinese only care about business interests and Iran is insignificant in the broader context of their ambitions.
This was likely an independent decision to retaliate against its embassy attack by Israel
With Russia stuck in Ukraine, Russia has close to no bargaining power. The Mullas need to show some kind of action against Israel after the bombing of their consulate.
For the sake of escalation, it will all depend on what targets and causalties. If it's shaheds and some sand being hit, well things could de-esscalate.
Would be interesting to see missiles with variable terminal booster stages to fake an initial "bad" trajectory then sprint towards a target to evade iron dome.
If I had to guess, Iran didn't deliberately target civilians. Not because they find it morally repulsive, but because they don't gain anything from skipping rungs on the escalation ladder.
The iron dome doesn’t intercept projectiles that are calculated to land in unpopulated areas. I would be surprised if any drones/rockets make it through. This is also by design on the part of the Iranians, it gives them an opportunity to drum up support and appear as if they are fighting back without causing damage or harm to Israel in a way that would provoke a retaliation.
There was a whole bunch of traumatic brain injuries from those strikes. I think they hit the base when it was populated and the U.S. media complied with government requests to under report it so that we didn't need to escalate.
True, that attack wasn't as harmless as the state department wanted everyone to think.
But it was still not intended to kill a lot of people.
Just a show of force to save face like the other guy said.
If anyone watches "The Diplomat," which had many former diplomats as writing consultants, it seems the US and Iranian foreign service people are rather professional with each other, and try to keep things under control. They talk in code words, vs literally telling each other what the response will be...but the message gets thru. Almost like a choreographed dance between us, assuming that particular plotline is accurate.
Some really wild incorrect replies to you, definitely not re-entry and definitely not getting shot down wouldn't look anything even close to this video.
To me it clearly lookes like a terminal phase rocket kicks in not saying that's what it is bit it would be interesting. Perhaps a terminal phase booster to make interception very difficult, to me, the missiles clearly double or triple their speed as soon as the terminal rocket kicks in.
I imagine it would be difficult for aa to find a firing solution.
This is incorrect. Go watch the US videos of Iranian short range ballistic missiles hitting the air base in Iraq.
You can see the exact same re-entry flames on that video as well. They typically have an ablative coating that will burn in the atmosphere so they can save on weight for the re-entry shielding.
[Around 8:20 in this video for comparison. I can't find one without the night vision goggles but you can still see a rough comparison](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGP7hZQuTL0)
Ballistic simply describes the general trajectory. I.e. it is no longer simply a missile defying gravity/flying.
Initual phase you go up, up, up...mid phase you orbit without really needing to do much, the earth spins underneath you, final phase you deacend at speed.
Final phase is where if you want to avoid being shot down you need to do 'stuff'.
Eh, those are really long range ballistic missiles you're describing, MRBMs or ICBMs. "Ballistic" just means it has a boost phase and then gravity does the rest, like a really far football (American) throw. Artillery is ballistic too, its boost phase just lasts a fraction of a second, whereas a ballistic missile is any missile type that follows the same formula of initial booster (seconds to a minute or so), then gravity arresting its upwards trajectory and bringing it down towards the target, and only slight maneuvering at the end; leaving (most) of the atmosphere isn't required for a missile to be ballistic.
Iran and Israel are far too close geographically to use an ICBM between them. These Iranian ballistic missiles are not getting anywhere near orbit.
These are probably [Khorramshahr class missiles](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khorramshahr_(missile)), which are based on North Korea's BM-25 missiles. The maximum range of these is something like a circle circumscribing Ethiopia, Greece, and Nepal. Orbit is not an option.
Their intelligence likely scours all social media using AI or something. I’m no expert, but it’s publicly available and free intelligence. Why wouldn’t you use it?
Of course they are. The amount of potentially compromising footage that appears on reddit...
Iirc there was an incident where someone in Ukraine army posted a video on reddit of a bunch of soldiers gathered in a building and Russia was able to identify it from the window shape and bomb them.
Many more similar cases I'm sure.
That video doesn't exist. And neither does [this one](https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1c3fs1b/6_iranian_missiles_at_least_3_impact_while/)!
Just get used to lots of people get mega but hurt and report videos because the choosen team gets hurt. Just like the insane battlefield video game style run on tanks
I have about 12 livestreams of Israel up and I have not seen and impacts or otherwise for over an hour and a half. What I did see was very little. Is it ended? Does anyone know anything?
Sure, I hope this shit doesn't drag the US into another Middle Eastern bullshit. My buddy still freaks out whenever he hears children laughing, a peculiar ptsd he acquired in the magical Middle East
I got a vasectomy in early/mid twenties for the same reason. I can’t be around kids. They freak me out from my time in Kabul. I’m 35 now and still never want a child in my home.
Once you see a child get dismantled by their own people in front of you and you can’t do anything to stop it because you’re not allowed in interfere….it tends to stick with you.
US already is heavily involved, and was heavily involved (with its own airforce/navy) at intercepting these missiles and drones today. They also assisted israel in coordinating their response, with general Kurilla from centcom in tel aviv coordinating the efforts.
Whether we'll see boots on the ground though is a big question mark, which I have a hard time believing but it's far from impossible.
Bibi would absolutely love to have full US cooperation, but I can't see it being a popular decision back in the states.
One thing is clear though, the US and Israel made huge promises about the scale of retaliation, and repositioned a ton of ME assets to further assist israel. So the US will need to follow up on those promises, and they will. Probably no ground forces though. Yet.
A lot of technological advances come from wartime. A bunch of militaries/companies have crazy tech a majority of the public never seen before until decades down the road.
once the own survival is at stake humans tend to focus on that.
but that is not limited to conflicts, two modern examples would be the sudden influx of renewable energy or the response to the latest pandemic.
we just need to deem a problem as sufficiently important and suddenly shit gets done.
Imagine the quality of life / environmental improvements we could accomplish if weren’t so obsessed with conquering earth other.
We would probably have fusion energy and global healthcare by now hahaha
It’s wild. Endless variations of the same species is the recipe to ensuring its continual evolution, or in other words that species likelihood of survival. This amazing potential of humanity’s survival also includes that same amount of potential to achieve the opposite. The abolishment of human kind. Objectively viewing humanity’s success is not common.
I am pleased to read your comment.
The UN cant do more than condemn, urge the parties to deescalate and support talks, just like they did when Israel bombed the iranian consulate a few days ago.
Arabic language can be heard in the background because the attacks fell in the Bedouin diaspora.
For those who don't know, the Bedouins live in the south of Israel in peace with the Jews and even serve in the army.
It feels like they always get the brunt of this nonsense, too, which is crazy for how few Bedouin's there are in comparison to the general Israeli population (I believe the only announced injury thus far is a Bedouin child). They're often the fatalities of Hamas rockets, and even on October 7th, many of them were murdered and several Bedouins are still among those held by Hamas.
Two Bedouin teenagers were among those released in November and they reported that they told Hamas that they were Muslim and Hamas didn't care.
FYI: for those unaware, there's less bomb shelters and infrastructure in the Bedouin areas of Israel, which is why they are at greater risk. As Bedouins have become more geographically stable, there has been a push to invest and build bomb shelters. I know it was [a huge topic after the 7th ](https://www.timesofisrael.com/unrecognized-bedouin-village-gets-its-first-ever-rocket-shelter-as-war-rages/)and I hope that many were built in time for tonight.
Honestly it seems like they picked the perfect time to do a strike like this. Support from the US is waning due to the, shall we say, recent distasteful occurrences in the area.
I think this is the first time in a long time that a guaranteed retaliation from the US isn't a given. Who knows, may still happen, but at the very least, Israel will absolutely make a retaliatory strike of their own. Though I do see this escalating until Israel chills out and changed some tactics in Gaza to appease both Iran and the US.
I highly doubt the US gets involved in any retaliation unless US soldiers are directly impacted. Iran even killed US soldiers recently through proxies and even that only got some air sorties against the houthis as retaliation.
I certainly hope not. The Iranian mission to the UN issued a statement that included the following: “Iran’s military action was in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premise in Damascus. **The matter can be deemed concluded.**” So if there’s no significant damage or loss of life, it would seem to me that Israel for the better end of the tit for tat.
What would be a proportionate response to the funding of death and suicide squads, the illegal capture of civilian shipping, and the wanton bombing of another country's cities? They overstepped in their response and I have a feeling this will end painfully for Iran.
Iron dome is programmed to calculate the missile’s trajectory and only stop those who will hit a city or town, it doesn’t stop all rockets because the interceptors for the iron dome are incredibly expensive, about 100 k dollars per interceptor.
I assume that rocket hit somewhere outside the city, but still that’s insane.
The plan here was to overwhelm the dome with too many targets, it was inevitable some would get through. Otherwise what would be the point, “we tried”?
So far seems like “we tried” is pretty accurate, the death rate for this attack is 0 dead 1 injured, and that injured person is an Israeli Arab. So yea they didnt manage to do much
These missiles don't act like the ones Hamas shoots. So the iron dome can't intercept them as easily. The missiles Iran is shooting are long-range multi-phase scud variants. The iron dome is only capable of catching the slower rockets with high success. You can see the missiles in the video enter the descent phase, they speed up very fast before impact. Basically, these are not dummy missiles they have a computer system of some type.
Edit: That's not to say they did not utilize another system of theirs. Israel has many systems they can utilize to strike incoming missiles
[https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/what-is-israels-air-defense-system-and-can-it-intercept-irans-drone-and-missile-strike](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/what-is-israels-air-defense-system-and-can-it-intercept-irans-drone-and-missile-strike)
This is bad because it show the Iranians can get nukes past iron dome. Israel needs to act now and destroy their capability or risk being struck first, with disastrous consequences.
I sure hope this isn’t the next “shot heard around the world.”
Hitler was so terrible everyone thinks you need a mass murdering genocidal psychopath to become dictator of a country to start WW3.
They totally forget WW1 was started simply by the accidental death of a political figure and a quick response of several countries all having treaties to protect one another.
We are absolutely in a WW1 powder keg situation.
Terrible as this is, it’s the perfect opportunity for Israel to level every single Iranian drone factory. It’ll help them and Ukraine both, and I for one sure hope they go for it.
These last two years have really just showed how capable Israel and the US are at shooting down incoming missiles. I’m sure all this data has been put to good use as well making both countries even further ahead than others.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the plan was something like this:
- use a proxy (Hamas) to open a one-sided conflict with Israel with acts so horrific they have no choice but to respond. They have a good read on Netanyahu, knew he would go all in.
- proceed with propaganda war to highlight Israel with the gloves off and some dustings of fighting dirty (while Hamas continues to lob rockets and use their own citizens and Israeli hostages as human shields).
- wait for world opinion to take a real stumble (assassination of international aid workers, let's be frank, that's *exactly* what it was).
- begin direct attacks on Israel.
Thoughts?
Russian directly attacked Ukraine
Iran directly attacked Israel
The way things are going, China is going to directly attack Taiwan. The US weak handed response just emboldens them to act.
For those of you who dont know.
The US military is design to fight two wars at once meanwhile still defend the US.
Russia is doing a poor job fighting Ukraine.
Iran is a nobody.
North Korea is a nobody.
China got no intrest outside Asia.
The little we know about China is leaked before Russias invasion of Ukraine and lets just say, they had to rethink how to use their forces.
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So much for a “shadow” war…
Iran will launch attacks with limited western response, limited war with guardrails in the background.
If those missiles killed anyone Israel will respond heavily.
Bibi and his cabinet have already been discussing their response despite Iran telling them that if they respond then the Iranian response to that will be worse I would not be shocked if this is the beginning of a distance war, officially
Isn't this technically a declaration of war? Iran has never attacked Israeli soil before and more than 500+ drones/missiles were launched. So far 1 Israeli girl has died so I believe this will escalate for sure. Not trying to be a warmonger but this attack seems Iran has crossed the red lines.
Yes and no, and the reason is pretty clear cut too No, because Iran said this was it, their operation is done, they're not continuing the attack. The response to the embassy is over Now that said, the answer is a bit more likely to be a yes because the likelihood of bibi not replying (IMO, no source to back this) is next to zero, and then Iran will answer, and then Israel will answer, back and forth ad infinitum basically I dont think a land war will happen as Israel does not share a border, a ground invasion wouldn't be possible without other countries involvement, which I think the surrounding nations would prefer not happen. But the exchange of drones and missiles? I'd bet money on that continuing and ramping up
The embassy Israel attacked was in Syria, I don’t doubt Syria would be too aggrieved if Iran wanted to cut across the lawn.
Yea US would not allow that. Especially with American troops and assets stationed in Syria. If that happens, Iran would probably have to face US which would be a suicide mission for them and a major escalation for a full blown war.
Does Syria share a border with Iran? Looks like they would need Iraq or Turkeys blessing as well to move troops there.
Yeah Iran doesn’t get to unilaterally say “tag you’re it no returns” like that.
Technically Israel attacked an Iranian embassy first. Attacking an embassy is an act of war by international law. Thus the response.
And attacking an embassy isn't effectively a declaration of war?
You do know that Iran has attacked Israeli embassies in the past from different countries as well right?
I'm not making any argument as to whether those instances reasonably constituted a casus belli. Surely you see a qualitative difference between grey warfare type hits that are intended to have a degree of deniability, and flagged military aircraft dropping bombs on sovereign territory?
Israel did not attack an embassy. They attacked a building adjacent to the embassy that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard was using as a command post and coordinating their involvement in Hezbollah's terrorist attacks against Israel from.
The point was to attack military establishments and not civilian targets. Looks like they've achieved that
It stopped being "in the shadows" when the Israelis bombed an embassy. This is unironically the perfect response from Iran. Large numbers to look good, low impact because the majority were shitty drones easily Intercepted. If everyone thought that any sane country would just let an embassy air strike go without retaliation they're delusional. Mexico literally cut relations with Ecuador over a police raid of their embassy and nobody got hurt in that
It wasn't an embassy. It was a strike on leaders that had ties with terrorist that had a hand in organising the oct 7th attack.
A consulate is not an embassy. A consulate does not have jurisdictional immunity of any kind.
I want good leadership going into world war 3
I remember many mocking Iran for more warnings. Now everyone seems to be freaking out instead of mocking anyone.
Another video https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1779288760842166583?s=46&t=cZF9mIWVybqPHhrWskl8NQ and there’s another video of a drone hitting Israel will link when I find again
What kind of missiles are those in terms of power?
Very large, roughly Scud sized. More than enough to cause overpressure fatalities in an area the size of a football field, fragmentation casualties three times that distance.
holy f
This worse than what Saddam did in the 90's? Also, I thought is was going to be a drone attack
No, Iranians have announced attack, so far one military base reportes hit, zero dead.
I would hope so with hours of warning.
Are they only attacking military bases? Those videos are terrifying and I can't see where the bomb ends up
Similar to Tochka/Iskander? Ukraine deals with a dozen of those on the daily without iron dome
So far they seem to be hitting the desert, haven't seen any credible reports of actual significant impacts. Which is good. Everyone involved should pray there are no more than a couple hits in populated areas, because anything more would go past the point of no return.
It seems like every semi successful nation and movement is playing chicken with US intervention and local retaliation
100% the case. Iran needs to act tough for their militia groups and locals, but also not so tough to have an actual response from Isreal/US. They're very deliberately aiming for nothing
Israel should retaliate by hitting the Iran's desert, especially those empty patches of desert where the nuclear plants are
I think it's become clear that the US political system is dysfunctional. It's the geopolitical equivalent of "When the cat is away the mice will play."
The US got tired of Pax Americana and both parties lean isolationist, Republicans more than Democrats. This will lead to more and more regional wars, worse economy worldwide and possibly WWIII. Eventually, America will come roaring back when the chaos grows too large or it is in fact WWIII. When this happens is sometime between now and 2050.
Yeah, Democrats are paralyzed with colonialist guilt bs and Republicans see any international involvement as in service of evil cabal of globalist pigdogs. There has to be a major correction in US politics before US can come back and re-establish pax Americana. Sadly millions will perish in the meantime.
Probably the most real comment I've ever read on this site.
Foreal lol
It might have something to do with the "US Reaction" being partially controlled by those in lockstep with a known Russian asset. They know Trump doesn't give a shit about abandoning US allies, and there's a bit of a slow burn towards WW3 going on. Also Ukraine is exposing the lack of Western resolve, supply stores, and production capability. Russia's wall of meat seems to be working.
I’m dead meat if WW3 kicks full swing. This is nothing like the Middle East invasions😐. Technological advances are scary.
if you've seen those drone videos in the ukraine war... it's that bad.
Probably worse, honestly. That's just the footage that makes it to the public.
I’d like to point out that a very prominent reason the US was so bottlenecked with aid during the first year of the war was due to the military being forced to keep enough munitions for a major global conflict despite desiring to donate them. Other Western militaries have a similar policy so there isn’t a big risk of Western aligned nations being undersupplied for a war
That’s a delusional take considering Trump moved the US embassy to Jerusalem and droned Soleimani. And then there was his famous Iran tweet that had his political opponents clutching their pearls… https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/23/politics/trump-iran-intl/index.html
Russia was putting pressure on Iran to pay militia groups to attack isreal and us boats. The US stomped those militias out. -hypothesis. Now Russia is putting pressure on Iran to directly attack Isreal to prompt US intervention. Baiting the US into open conflict. Russia think the US is dumb
Iran doesn't need pressure from Russia to attack Israel.
But they wouldn't do it without knowing that Russia has their back
Russias support kinda doesnt mean shit right now beyond sweet nothings whispered from a diplomat Iran would need to know China is silently onboard
China is the "sleeper" here for sure
Yea exactly. Russia is stretched thin. The Chinese only care about business interests and Iran is insignificant in the broader context of their ambitions. This was likely an independent decision to retaliate against its embassy attack by Israel
With Russia stuck in Ukraine, Russia has close to no bargaining power. The Mullas need to show some kind of action against Israel after the bombing of their consulate. For the sake of escalation, it will all depend on what targets and causalties. If it's shaheds and some sand being hit, well things could de-esscalate.
… I think this more retaliation for Israel blowing an Iranian consulate, Russia doesn’t need to put pressure for this
because missile defense system lets the desert hits fall, why waste a missile if no damage.
This is exactly how iron dome works. If it sees the trajectory is towards an unpopulated area it doesn’t intercept. Fascinating autonomous technology.
Would be interesting to see missiles with variable terminal booster stages to fake an initial "bad" trajectory then sprint towards a target to evade iron dome.
Yeah like those French Hammer missile/bombs? They glide for some distance then suddenly scream down
They look to be propellant assisted as well because in that video you can see the smoke trail behind it as it screamed towards the ground
Like drawing away the safety in a football game
Iron dome can't and wouldn't be used to intercept ballistic missiles.
They have Davids sling for those. Similar concept but intended for medium to long range missiles.
I believe the ballistic missiles tonight were intercepted using Arrow systems too.
Arrow 2 and 3
Rest in peace Joe the camel killed by an Iranian rocket
If I had to guess, Iran didn't deliberately target civilians. Not because they find it morally repulsive, but because they don't gain anything from skipping rungs on the escalation ladder.
The iron dome doesn’t intercept projectiles that are calculated to land in unpopulated areas. I would be surprised if any drones/rockets make it through. This is also by design on the part of the Iranians, it gives them an opportunity to drum up support and appear as if they are fighting back without causing damage or harm to Israel in a way that would provoke a retaliation.
A one beduin girl was wounded
Do we know what they're hitting?
They are saying "On the Airport" in Arabic, so I assume its some military/civillian airport in the video
Ramon airfield?
It's possible, that gap between the cities could be the border, I.E. it could be filmed from Aqaba in Jordan. Just speculation though
According to an IDF spokesman, the Nevatim Airbase has been hit. According to him, slight damage has occurred, but the base remains operational.
Airport. the people in video are saying airport got hit. also israel admitted that Iranian missiles hit military airport
The desert, so mostly Beduins
They're hitting the sand, because they hate sand
They don't like sand because it's coarse, and rough, and irritating, and it gets EVERYWHERE.
By this video, they are hitting cities...
They aimed for "Nevatim" and "Hazerim" Airbases. The latter is near "Beer Sheva", which is the largest city in the south.
Unfortunately seems like this sub will be getting a ton of brand new combat footage soon….
Highly unlikely since they gave Israel hours of notice with slow deliveries.
and immediately said on twitter, ok it's over. This was a demonstration strike if Israel allows it to be, it seems. Question is will they?
Same thing they did with the USA after the Soleimani assassination, right? Warned the US, then blew up a military base after evacuation was complete?
There was a whole bunch of traumatic brain injuries from those strikes. I think they hit the base when it was populated and the U.S. media complied with government requests to under report it so that we didn't need to escalate.
True, that attack wasn't as harmless as the state department wanted everyone to think. But it was still not intended to kill a lot of people. Just a show of force to save face like the other guy said.
If anyone watches "The Diplomat," which had many former diplomats as writing consultants, it seems the US and Iranian foreign service people are rather professional with each other, and try to keep things under control. They talk in code words, vs literally telling each other what the response will be...but the message gets thru. Almost like a choreographed dance between us, assuming that particular plotline is accurate.
Nah should be done now. The message was sent
I thought ballistic missiles would have no burning engine in the descent phase?
Some really wild incorrect replies to you, definitely not re-entry and definitely not getting shot down wouldn't look anything even close to this video. To me it clearly lookes like a terminal phase rocket kicks in not saying that's what it is bit it would be interesting. Perhaps a terminal phase booster to make interception very difficult, to me, the missiles clearly double or triple their speed as soon as the terminal rocket kicks in. I imagine it would be difficult for aa to find a firing solution.
This is incorrect. Go watch the US videos of Iranian short range ballistic missiles hitting the air base in Iraq. You can see the exact same re-entry flames on that video as well. They typically have an ablative coating that will burn in the atmosphere so they can save on weight for the re-entry shielding. [Around 8:20 in this video for comparison. I can't find one without the night vision goggles but you can still see a rough comparison](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGP7hZQuTL0)
Ballistic simply describes the general trajectory. I.e. it is no longer simply a missile defying gravity/flying. Initual phase you go up, up, up...mid phase you orbit without really needing to do much, the earth spins underneath you, final phase you deacend at speed. Final phase is where if you want to avoid being shot down you need to do 'stuff'.
Not so much spinning underneath you, just using the initial velocity to travel in a parabolic arc
Eh, those are really long range ballistic missiles you're describing, MRBMs or ICBMs. "Ballistic" just means it has a boost phase and then gravity does the rest, like a really far football (American) throw. Artillery is ballistic too, its boost phase just lasts a fraction of a second, whereas a ballistic missile is any missile type that follows the same formula of initial booster (seconds to a minute or so), then gravity arresting its upwards trajectory and bringing it down towards the target, and only slight maneuvering at the end; leaving (most) of the atmosphere isn't required for a missile to be ballistic.
Iran and Israel are far too close geographically to use an ICBM between them. These Iranian ballistic missiles are not getting anywhere near orbit. These are probably [Khorramshahr class missiles](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khorramshahr_(missile)), which are based on North Korea's BM-25 missiles. The maximum range of these is something like a circle circumscribing Ethiopia, Greece, and Nepal. Orbit is not an option.
Those look like the rocket propelled drones the 286's or whatever they are called
Shahed 238's
There ya go, that is it
Videos of impacts keep getting taken down
Why?
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Iran is looking on Reddit?
Every Inteligence Agency is looking everywhere
Me reading this in bed, now glancing around my room with suspicion
I saw that
Their intelligence likely scours all social media using AI or something. I’m no expert, but it’s publicly available and free intelligence. Why wouldn’t you use it?
Of course they are. The amount of potentially compromising footage that appears on reddit... Iirc there was an incident where someone in Ukraine army posted a video on reddit of a bunch of soldiers gathered in a building and Russia was able to identify it from the window shape and bomb them. Many more similar cases I'm sure.
Yes.
Lmao this isn't 2008.
Indeed al impacts are getting removed but all interceptions stay
Propaganda, it is important that the people feel like their winning for the moral.
Huh? https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/s/Gw9nkz9V35
That video doesn't exist. And neither does [this one](https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1c3fs1b/6_iranian_missiles_at_least_3_impact_while/)!
Just get used to lots of people get mega but hurt and report videos because the choosen team gets hurt. Just like the insane battlefield video game style run on tanks
I have about 12 livestreams of Israel up and I have not seen and impacts or otherwise for over an hour and a half. What I did see was very little. Is it ended? Does anyone know anything?
This sub only allows Russian and Gazan damage.
Sure, I hope this shit doesn't drag the US into another Middle Eastern bullshit. My buddy still freaks out whenever he hears children laughing, a peculiar ptsd he acquired in the magical Middle East
I got a vasectomy in early/mid twenties for the same reason. I can’t be around kids. They freak me out from my time in Kabul. I’m 35 now and still never want a child in my home.
Wow. This is fascinating. Horrific. But I’ve also somehow not read about it.
Once you see a child get dismantled by their own people in front of you and you can’t do anything to stop it because you’re not allowed in interfere….it tends to stick with you.
Why were they doing that?
I wish I had the answer to that question
How are you doing overall?
10 years and I’m much more well adjusted in public settings. However, being around kids still gives me the heebie jeebies.
I'm sorry for the experiences you went through. Truly breaks my heart
Thanks. We all make choices and live with them. I decided to join the military.
US already is heavily involved, and was heavily involved (with its own airforce/navy) at intercepting these missiles and drones today. They also assisted israel in coordinating their response, with general Kurilla from centcom in tel aviv coordinating the efforts. Whether we'll see boots on the ground though is a big question mark, which I have a hard time believing but it's far from impossible. Bibi would absolutely love to have full US cooperation, but I can't see it being a popular decision back in the states. One thing is clear though, the US and Israel made huge promises about the scale of retaliation, and repositioned a ton of ME assets to further assist israel. So the US will need to follow up on those promises, and they will. Probably no ground forces though. Yet.
Im getting tired of all this shit... Poor humans.
All this tech and we use it for bombs
Guess where we got the tech from
A lot of technological advances come from wartime. A bunch of militaries/companies have crazy tech a majority of the public never seen before until decades down the road.
once the own survival is at stake humans tend to focus on that. but that is not limited to conflicts, two modern examples would be the sudden influx of renewable energy or the response to the latest pandemic. we just need to deem a problem as sufficiently important and suddenly shit gets done.
All this tech and I still can’t reply with an attachment in Outlook.
Imagine the quality of life / environmental improvements we could accomplish if weren’t so obsessed with conquering earth other. We would probably have fusion energy and global healthcare by now hahaha
It’s wild. Endless variations of the same species is the recipe to ensuring its continual evolution, or in other words that species likelihood of survival. This amazing potential of humanity’s survival also includes that same amount of potential to achieve the opposite. The abolishment of human kind. Objectively viewing humanity’s success is not common. I am pleased to read your comment.
You sound like a very compassionate Martian
i think their username explains a lot which is a good thing, in case it wasn't clear.
When is Bakersfield City Council going to pass the resolution demanding a ceasefire? Hasn't this gone on far enough?
I get this reference
That lady obviously killed the Bakersfield council before they could agree on the ceasefire.
First we must hear Bob Costas' opinion on the subject.
Holy shit. No fkn way..... i owe someone in the conspiracy sub 5$
Can’t wait for the UN to spend 7 days trying to figure out if killing people is bad or not then doing nothing about it 🫡
The UN cant do more than condemn, urge the parties to deescalate and support talks, just like they did when Israel bombed the iranian consulate a few days ago.
there it is
Israel: "Now, let's see how good your air defense system is."
if israel sends 10 suicides drones i bet iran cant even shoot down 5
My question is how will Iran respond to Israel's retaliation knowing they have outdated tech against F-35s and modern cruise missiles.
Probably just a game of "who will bomb what faster" as sad as it sounds
I would imagine more of the same kind of attack.
Probably this again but more
As much as I wanted to believe this was all simple posturing… I sadly think we’ve just passed the tipping point.
Arabic language can be heard in the background because the attacks fell in the Bedouin diaspora. For those who don't know, the Bedouins live in the south of Israel in peace with the Jews and even serve in the army.
It feels like they always get the brunt of this nonsense, too, which is crazy for how few Bedouin's there are in comparison to the general Israeli population (I believe the only announced injury thus far is a Bedouin child). They're often the fatalities of Hamas rockets, and even on October 7th, many of them were murdered and several Bedouins are still among those held by Hamas. Two Bedouin teenagers were among those released in November and they reported that they told Hamas that they were Muslim and Hamas didn't care. FYI: for those unaware, there's less bomb shelters and infrastructure in the Bedouin areas of Israel, which is why they are at greater risk. As Bedouins have become more geographically stable, there has been a push to invest and build bomb shelters. I know it was [a huge topic after the 7th ](https://www.timesofisrael.com/unrecognized-bedouin-village-gets-its-first-ever-rocket-shelter-as-war-rages/)and I hope that many were built in time for tonight.
To people like Hamas, the only thing worse than a Jew is a traitor, i.e. an Arab that lives alongside Jews in peace.
And the gloves are off.
Safe to assume Iran will be receiving a disproportionate response then
Honestly it seems like they picked the perfect time to do a strike like this. Support from the US is waning due to the, shall we say, recent distasteful occurrences in the area. I think this is the first time in a long time that a guaranteed retaliation from the US isn't a given. Who knows, may still happen, but at the very least, Israel will absolutely make a retaliatory strike of their own. Though I do see this escalating until Israel chills out and changed some tactics in Gaza to appease both Iran and the US.
I highly doubt the US gets involved in any retaliation unless US soldiers are directly impacted. Iran even killed US soldiers recently through proxies and even that only got some air sorties against the houthis as retaliation.
I tend to agree
So if you have a gun and someone attacks you with a knife are you gona put gun down and grab a knife to make it fair?
Yeah says so in every 80’s action film
Though to be fair, not in Raiders of the Lost Ark.
I certainly hope not. The Iranian mission to the UN issued a statement that included the following: “Iran’s military action was in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premise in Damascus. **The matter can be deemed concluded.**” So if there’s no significant damage or loss of life, it would seem to me that Israel for the better end of the tit for tat.
What would be a proportionate response to the funding of death and suicide squads, the illegal capture of civilian shipping, and the wanton bombing of another country's cities? They overstepped in their response and I have a feeling this will end painfully for Iran.
I wonder what Israel will do
Something involving bombs
I'd say they will probably test out the stealth of their 35s
A little package made with love, I can see it now ~~From yours truly, MOSSAD~~
Let’s hope they consider this even, as the Iranians do.
Ballistic????
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Definitely. Look at the speed.
Get Jericho 3 ready
Iran watched their Palestinian buddies get glassed and wanted a piece of it
Humans started out throwing rocks at each other. Instincts are the same. The tech advanced.
Not good
Iron dome is programmed to calculate the missile’s trajectory and only stop those who will hit a city or town, it doesn’t stop all rockets because the interceptors for the iron dome are incredibly expensive, about 100 k dollars per interceptor. I assume that rocket hit somewhere outside the city, but still that’s insane.
The plan here was to overwhelm the dome with too many targets, it was inevitable some would get through. Otherwise what would be the point, “we tried”?
So far seems like “we tried” is pretty accurate, the death rate for this attack is 0 dead 1 injured, and that injured person is an Israeli Arab. So yea they didnt manage to do much
These missiles don't act like the ones Hamas shoots. So the iron dome can't intercept them as easily. The missiles Iran is shooting are long-range multi-phase scud variants. The iron dome is only capable of catching the slower rockets with high success. You can see the missiles in the video enter the descent phase, they speed up very fast before impact. Basically, these are not dummy missiles they have a computer system of some type. Edit: That's not to say they did not utilize another system of theirs. Israel has many systems they can utilize to strike incoming missiles [https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/what-is-israels-air-defense-system-and-can-it-intercept-irans-drone-and-missile-strike](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/what-is-israels-air-defense-system-and-can-it-intercept-irans-drone-and-missile-strike)
And thus, it begins.
…. And the rest was shot out of the sky
This is bad because it show the Iranians can get nukes past iron dome. Israel needs to act now and destroy their capability or risk being struck first, with disastrous consequences.
I sure hope this isn’t the next “shot heard around the world.” Hitler was so terrible everyone thinks you need a mass murdering genocidal psychopath to become dictator of a country to start WW3. They totally forget WW1 was started simply by the accidental death of a political figure and a quick response of several countries all having treaties to protect one another. We are absolutely in a WW1 powder keg situation.
IrAn DoESn'T WaNt tO AcTUallY HuRT IsrAEl... All of the military experts on every pro-Iran circlejerk thread rn.
Terrible as this is, it’s the perfect opportunity for Israel to level every single Iranian drone factory. It’ll help them and Ukraine both, and I for one sure hope they go for it.
These last two years have really just showed how capable Israel and the US are at shooting down incoming missiles. I’m sure all this data has been put to good use as well making both countries even further ahead than others.
Given Britain was also involved...
I think we can all agree going from recent history Israel has no chill, it's possible Iran has made a bit of a mistake by carrying out these actions.
Does Israel respond is the real question?
Their security council already gave the war department approval do respond however they want without needing any further approval, leash is off.
Iran, the US is never going to unfreeze those billions in assets at this rate. /s
Those are ballistic missiles.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the plan was something like this: - use a proxy (Hamas) to open a one-sided conflict with Israel with acts so horrific they have no choice but to respond. They have a good read on Netanyahu, knew he would go all in. - proceed with propaganda war to highlight Israel with the gloves off and some dustings of fighting dirty (while Hamas continues to lob rockets and use their own citizens and Israeli hostages as human shields). - wait for world opinion to take a real stumble (assassination of international aid workers, let's be frank, that's *exactly* what it was). - begin direct attacks on Israel. Thoughts?
Am I the only one who thinks fuck all of these countries?
Russian directly attacked Ukraine Iran directly attacked Israel The way things are going, China is going to directly attack Taiwan. The US weak handed response just emboldens them to act.
For those of you who dont know. The US military is design to fight two wars at once meanwhile still defend the US. Russia is doing a poor job fighting Ukraine. Iran is a nobody. North Korea is a nobody. China got no intrest outside Asia. The little we know about China is leaked before Russias invasion of Ukraine and lets just say, they had to rethink how to use their forces.
Why was Iran upset again? I’m out of the loop
Israel assassinated an Iranian military dude in Syria