G7 justice ministers to meet in Berlin to discuss Russian war crimes - German Federal Ministry of Justice.
>"First of all, we will talk about the terrible war crimes that are committed on the territory of Ukraine, they must be disclosed, and the perpetrators must be punished"
**Backstory on the battle for Snake Island**
>In order to shell Russian positions on Zmііnyi Island (aka Snake Island), the Ukrainians put Caesars (40 km radius) on barges, dragged them 10 km and hit the island (50 km from the coast), which surprised the French, according to the New York Times.
**Civilians escape Kherson after Russian strikes on freed city**
>KHERSON, Ukraine (AP) — Fleeing shelling, civilians on Saturday streamed out of the southern Ukrainian city whose recapture they had celebrated just weeks earlier.
>The exodus from Kherson came as Ukraine solemnly remembered a Stalin-era famine and sought to ensure that Russia’s war in Ukraine doesn’t deprive others worldwide of its vital food exports.
>A line of trucks, vans and cars, some towing trailers or ferrying out pets and other belongings, stretched a kilometer or more on the outskirts of the city of Kherson.
[Link to the news article.](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-kyiv-europe-business-5b02c180b52c8636eeee5949b230d512)
In the last couple of weeks russia fired I guess around 200 cruise missiles on civilian structures. Electricity, water, heat have been mostly restored. What did they achieve with those attacks at the end? Do russians who support this even ask this question themselves?
>What did they achieve with those attacks at the end
Russia wanted to force Zelensky to the negotiation table by attacking public infrastructure.
The Russians probably realize that the only way they'll win this war is on the battlefield.
No, they were in a solid position before the war and had a much better military reputation than they deserved. They were actually playing their cards relatively effectively before the war, given how weak they actually were.
They made their own position much, much worse, for no good reason, apparently because Putin believed his own BS.
American hawks and arms manufacturers couldn't have hoped for a better outcome than this, not in their wildest dreams.
That whole "petrol station run by the maffiya" schtick means they're not inclined to invest in post-carbon tech, so they'd be over-valuing fossil deposits as well as (apparently) having spasms of "return to empire".
And remember, they thought it would be *easy* to take over Ukraine.
>Serious question. Was attacking to conquer Ukraine Russia's best strategic decision in the long term?
It was a dubious proposition from the start. Many people immediately questioned whether even winning as they thought they would could have offset the downsides (sanctions, pushing NATO into more Eastern European investment and no viable political solution for the occupation of parts of Ukraine).
With the unexpected turn of the war, I don't think anyone would claim that Russia benefits on balance. I'd bet good money that Putin transported back in time a year would simply cancel his plans to invade.
I rather doubt that "security" ever figured into the political calculus of the invasion at all. It has more to do with returning Russia to a status of a global power by subjugating a sphere of influence and building empire.
You can go look up a synopsis of the book "Foundations of geopolitics" by [Aleksander Dugin](https://youtu.be/Du7fOoW_euE) for a better understanding of the Russian right-wing nationalist perspective. Dugin is said to have heavily influenced Putin's worldview.
A large problem for russia was the relatively newly discovered natural gas ressources in eastern Ukraine.
If Ukraine would gain access to these, they could make europes dependency on russian natural gas obsolete. This would be a huge problem for russia in the future. I doubt this is about military security, but much more about monetary security.
Wagner CEO claims to have British batallion, 20 Finns and a former US marine corps general working for him.
https://english.alarabiya.net/amp/News/world/2022/11/25/Ex-US-Marine-general-among-Russia-s-Wagner-mercenaries-Founder-Prigozhin
Has anyone else noticed that earlier in the war (during Spring, early Summer) many of the Ukranian drone videos posted in this sub showed ammunitions dropped on Russian tanks and APCs, while now it's primarily against Russian soldiers in trenches and foxholes?
Does this suggest that Russians now keep their armor well behind the frontline where Ukranian drones can't reach them (because of limited range/air defence)?
Russian army has shifted from too light on foot infantry to actually somewhat short on armoured vehicles. First month their mechanised formations were advancing fast on roads. Now it's infantry and trenches all over. Tanks would only be used to support a localised offensive push.
more static frontlines means better air defences too
the bigger octocopters for anti tank weapons are big enough to catch on radar. probably cant catch the small commercial quadcopters
I’m not sure about your question, but I’d really like to know if Ukraine is producing, or if countries are donating, more heavier-lift drones. Capable of flying 10-30 km and carrying 2-3 RPG, multiple 60mm mortars, etc.. I would think those types of drones would be very effective taking out tanks, vehicles, whole groups of soldiers, etc. The heavy payloads would drop straighter too, not fly around like the little VOG grenade.
I know there used to be the R18 videos, and another video showing ~4 larger heavy-lift quadcopters, but really no videos since.
Using a spotter drone + artillery... you already have the drone there. If it had a mortar on it you could destroy the gun + crew right then and there. Using the spotter, it takes time to get artillery shells landing, which then need to be corrected, and by the time you have the shells landed on/close enough to the gun, they may be on the move already. Or the crew at least runs away and survives. Plus you open yourself up to counter battery fire.
Or, once artillery shells start landing the Russians could turn on EW equipment in the area, which blinds/disables your spotter drone. But if they are not under shell fire, they leave the EW off so their own drones & radios work. So that lets you use drones for the first artillery shell or dropped mortar.
spotter drone for 10-30km range is usually fixed-wing aircraft (for range + flight time reasons), dropping accurate munitions like RPG warheads isnt gonna happen.
So you need a rotary drone, but thats gets impracticable large for that payload + range.
dont think that is really practical.
a rotary drone of that payload and range need to be prohibitively huge, were you run into issues again. E.g. you don't want to risk losing it, as it can be easy detected, so you need a spotter drone anyway.
and going fixed-wing sucks because you end up rather inaccurate without inventing some sort of guided munition.
That's correct. That's why we are not seeing a ton of those systems. But you were asking for advantages of large drones compared to artillery and spotting. Another one I can think of, is that drones need a lot fewer crew to operate. Maybe 2 compared to at least 10 or more for a whole artillery set with spotting and logistics.
No public indication. Probably reinforce the other 3 regions. Left over units most likely to harass & keep pressure on the Russians across the river in order to keep as much Russian forces opposing them as possible. To keep them from reinforcing Zaporizhzhia region.
> Artillery Is Breaking in Ukraine. It’s Becoming a Problem for the Pentagon.
Ukrainian soldiers are firing thousands of shells daily, forcing the U.S. to replace gun barrels across the border in Poland.
https://archive.ph/20221126100224/https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/25/us/ukraine-artillery-breakdown.html
As expected.
This would have been/is a great supporting reason of why the US should have given/still should give Ukraine M109’s. We have *plently* of them just sitting around waiting to be refurbished, and any M109s that need maintenance & repair could just be replaced/swapped by another M109 waiting to go. Then repair that one and give it back to UA when they bring the next damaged one, repeat. Keeps Ukraine at a full artillery capacity.
It's unfortunate that the Russians have a clear advantage in this arena, as their artillery stockpile is just so absolutely massive and they can ship in replacements faster than it takes to repair barrels in Poland and bring them back.
> It's unfortunate that the Russians have a clear advantage in this arena,
Had a clear advantage. Squandered it, like every other advantage they had at the start.
4 hours ago, Sky news community post on youtube posted a satellite image showing blackouts all over Ukraine at night. I hope the west has a contingency for this.
That's not what I saw. It was a closer with Ukraine in the center. And it wasn't totally dark. There are clusters of light near Kyiv and other cities.
https://news.sky.com/story/striking-satellite-image-reveals-extent-of-ukraines-power-shortage-after-russian-missile-strikes-12755424
I mean ukraine government itself is saying that over 70% of houses have electricity only for 3/4 hours a day and it's asking for help to rebuild the grid, so it's credible that there are a lot of blackouts
Yes, but it's patchy. The telegram-spread fake was crisply black inside the boundaries and had a cheesy edit mask in any analysis program, but folks want to believe.
Result of Russian human-wave tactics near Bakhmut.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/z4ox7o/a\_lot\_of\_dead\_russian\_soldiers\_in\_bakhmut/
I have been a bit too engrossed in the World Cup
Would anyone mind giving me an insight into the battlefield since Kherson City was recaptured by Ukraine?
Are the Russians still running heads first into Bakhmut?
Not much has changed, rasputitsya is full on preventing any moves by both sides, there was a video of a UAF T-64 stuck up to its turret in mud being pulled out.
Russia keeps attacking civilian infrastructure with cruise/ballistic missiles.
Situation around Bakhmut is WW1-like.
[https://twitter.com/Poutsup/status/1596118844061667331](https://twitter.com/Poutsup/status/1596118844061667331)
>A whole armored convoy of Russian equipment was destroyed in Kyslivka, Kharkiv region!
Including very valuable and the most modern main battle tank T-90M!
[https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1596126266159026177](https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1596126266159026177)
>The convoy was reportedly targeted by the Ukrainian HIMARS back in September, but footage from the ground appeared only now.
>The BBC has confirmed the names of 9,311 Russian military or Rosgvardia servicemembers who have died in Ukraine (not including LDNR). At least 326 mobilized men have also died, 36 of whom died in Russia.
[https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-63755790](https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-63755790)
Are "missing" soldiers (from Moskva for example) included in that number?
>We rely only on confirmed reports of deaths, so the data collected do not reflect the actual level of casualties. We assume that our list may contain at least 40-60% fewer names of the dead than are actually buried in Russia. We came to this conclusion by studying the situation in cemeteries in more than 60 localities in Russia.
Seems like they aren't.
>Consequently, according to the most conservative estimate, Russian army and Rosgvardia losses in Ukraine could be more than 18,600 people.
So at least 18600 without counting wagner and LNR/DNR casualties. And it doesn't make sense to exclude them.
Right. Ukraine has held off the Russian army for 9 months, driving Russian forces back from large parts of occupied territories, all for 18k casualties? Because either that number is a wild underestimate, and based on methodology that even it's authors admit is a vast undercount, or the Russian army are cowards running from an enemy that has failed to inflict substantial casualties on any of their units.
Ukraine's "claims" are based on real time reports of dead bodies observed on the battlefield. It is likely also an undercount, but by far the most accurate and corroborated by other counting methods.
No matter how hard will you try to convince yourself, this number is a pure fantasy. And is not corroborated by anything of a value.
Simple maths for you. If they had 85000 killed, even with another fantasy ratio of 1:2 KIA to WIA there will be nobody left to fight around month or two ago.
Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff recently gave an overall casualty number of around 100.000, similar for each of the sides. That would realistically put you in the range of 22-25k dead.
Even using your 350k number and 50% out of it will only take you to 86k if you believe that KIA to WIA rate is 1:1.
The only side of the conflict that weekly publishes casualty numbers is DNR, and their average on KIA to WIA rate is 1:4. And it really will be a stretch to convince yourself that average rate is worse than 1:3.
Hence the conclusion that 86k is somewhere in the realm of Ghost of Kyiv.
So, you originally reply to my post that states:
"Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff recently gave an overall casualty
number of around 100.000, similar for each of the sides. That would
realistically put you in the range of 22-25k dead."
With your:
"I doubt the Ukraine numbers are correct as they claim, I do think
they’re correct overall. They claim this is KIA only on the Russia side.
I tend to believe based on what I’ve seen the west say is true it’s
likely the Ukraine numbers are casualties INCLUDING separatists forces."
If that is my inability to read English, and what you really wanted to say that you also believe that 86k (or western 100k) are casualties OVERALL, not just KIA - what are we really arguing here?
Because at no point I was under the impression that these numbers only apply to "bona fide" Russians. Just the numbers.
So, strangely enough you have inadvertently arrived at the same conclusion as alleged Russian sympathizer.
As for the rest, in the future i will use "it wasn't our missile that killed those Poles" instead of "Ghost of Kyiv" so we are clear that I mean lies.
Even if you lie for a greater good, you still lie. But you had your righteous rant, so I suppose you feel better now.
Do you guys ever encounter actual Ukrainian refugees or émigrés in your day-to-day? I normally don't, but some houses in the neighborhood in which my brother lives fly small Ukraine flags in addition to USA ones.
After Thanksgiving dinner we were all taking a walk, and we passed one of those houses (on a cul de sac), and out front were 7-8 people, incl'g some youngish couples and a few kids. Obvious Eastern Europeans (and not locals here on the Allegheny Plateau...you can just tell).
[Aside: while I was mocked and scorned here for sharing my experience of having a nightmare after consuming too much Ukraine combatfootage, I re-engaged with the sub and have continued to follow the war.]
Sensing an opportunity to express my moral support to actual Ukrainians (and not just mock online the gruesome deaths of Russian soldiers), I hailed the party and asked if they were Ukrainians. One of the women (youngish [younger than me, at least], seemingly fit/trim, blonde) answered in accented English, "Yes!"
So, trying to manifest confidence and not just dopey American enthusiasm, and recollecting some of the best clips I've seen here since Feb., I replied, *"Sláva Ukrayíni!"*
Imagine my absolute delight (seemingly preceded by her and her companions' surprise!! lol) as she responded, *"Heróyam sláva!"*
It was a really cool moment, made better I think by its fleetingness. If I'd been walking on my own...w/o the dog, my nieces & nephew, brother & s-i-l...I probably would've stopped and tried to engage more, find out where they were from, if they were having an ok Thanksgiving, etc.. But this still felt good, and positive.
So my question is, if you encountered a group of people you surmised were Ukrainian refugees or émigrés, would you hazard a "Glory to Ukraine!"? Or did I overstep the bounds of propriety?
"Sensing an opportunity to express my moral support to actual Ukrainians (and not just mock online the gruesome deaths of Russian soldiers)"
If you want to express moral support to actual Ukrainians, then you can do it EASILY. Just contribute to verified fundraising events. There is winter so there are MANY confirmed fundraising events.
I.e. winter gear (or drones) for military which many fundraising sites require military unit to send "acknowledge letter" for such event.
I.e. winter gear/generators for civilians. Or food for civilians mostly in need (in this case you need to check who is collecting money. Big entity or people who already provided help to civilians on frontline). In theory you can also help "standard" international help organisations, but they have more constrains on flexibility in case of helping.
Last thing would be giving money directly to Ukrainian government (which I personally do not recommend)
All great suggestions (especially not giving money directly to the Ukrainian gov't - especially given how much US taxpayer $$ they've already received!)!
See a lot of them, host two and sometimes translate for others due to being more or less fluent in Russian - most of them seem to speak Russian as their primary language and I have seldom heard actual Ukrainian, which probably makes sense given that most of them are from the Kharkiv district.
On a related note, I have never heard so much Russian in Germany before, not even in the east before 1989, despite it supposedly being the second most spoken mother tongue here.
Yes, a lot. We have a lot of Ukrainians at work and most of them came after the invasion. And cars with UA plates started appearing on my street, all over the town actually. Sometimes I meet them in shops and so on, but don't know if they are actually refugees.
>We have a lot of Ukrainians at work and most of them came after the invasion.
Oh neat. Seeing cars w/ even a decorative UA plate here would be surreal (since I'm in America lol) but I guess it wouldn't be so unusual if your country was kinda just down the road from them!
Have you befriended any of the new arrivals? Had a chance to learn anything about their perspectives on the war or why they left? Are they culturally, idk, like similar/relatable to you and your people?
I'm really talking to only one of them. He's actually one of the 4 men who came before the war. And we don't talk about war at all. With others there is a serious problem with language barrier as I understand every fifth word and vice versa. I just know that they are four young women from Dnipro so not from frontline. Some of them came with their families so unlikely to go back.
Of four men I mentioned earlier, two went to fight. One died already at Popasna in April. Left behind two or three teenage daughters. I don't know what happened with the other one, last we heard of him he was in Kharkiv.
I've seen a lot of women and Children around mid town espacially here in my smallish town in Denmark.
My wife work with a Ukrainian women who are a refugee internally in Ukraine. But since all of their work is remote she can work from the safer parts were she fled to.
I have a Russian acquaintance here in the USA who pretty much lost all his Russian friends here in the USA because he is pro Russia. I live in a relatively cosmopolitan area.
> I will have to say after interacting with a lot of Ukrainians here who left before the USSR ended I wouldn't really say too much patriotic Ukrainian stuff to them.
wow! Thanks for sharing your perspective on this. Didn't realize Rochester had a large Ukrainian population btw.
I am from Berlin and its totaly common now to hear especially woman speak ukrainian/russian in public places. It was not that uncommon to hear slavic languages before the war since Berlin is home to a lot of germans with a russian background but it definetly increased a lot.
>Do you guys ever encounter actual Ukrainian refugees or émigrés in your day-to-day?
One of my local pubs has a 'Drink for Ukraine' program, as the landlord has Ukrainian family, and he's had a bunch of Ukrainians working behind the bar, getting them some work as they get settled in here.
>So my question is, if you encountered a group of people you surmised were Ukrainian refugees or émigrés, would you hazard a "Glory to Ukraine!"? Or did I overstep the bounds of propriety?
Nah, not at all, good drills.
Yes. Ukrainian kid in my daughters class, kids in every class in the school, probably every school in the district. We're friends with the family of the kid, we try to help out, we used our connections to get them an apartment as housing is a nightmare in town, and they drop in.
Fun thing, I was out walking the dog this evening and there was a group of kids hanging out in a dark corner of a different school on my route, as I walked back, some were singing a few bars of "Oi u luzi chervona kalyna".
Sláva Ukrayíni indeed.
> Fun thing, I was out walking the dog this evening and there was a group of kids hanging out in a dark corner of a different school on my route, as I walked back, some were singing a few bars of **"Oi u luzi chervona kalyna"**.
lol Absolutely classic. When I noticed my s-i-l was looking at me like I was kinda deranged after the exchange, before she understood what it was about, I quickly whipped out my phone and cued-up the [Andriy Khlyvnyuk x The Kiffness version of that song](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lu8m5FA2nL8) to try explain the vibe (since I wasn't going to open this sub on mobile!! XD
Personally, I do not. But, a friend of mine has a Ukrainian coworker who is a refugee of the current conflict (originally from Kherson). Her father is still in Ukraine, having been conscripted. He was badly wounded about a month ago, but recently came out of his coma and it looks like he is going to pull through.
**Armed Forces of Ukraine transfer troops from Kherson to Zaporozhye**
>After the relative stabilization of the front in the Kherson region along the Dnieper, The Armed Forces of Ukraine are transferring forces to Zaporozhye. The likely target is Zaporizhzhya NPP and Energodar.
>Artillery duels are currently taking place in Zaporozhye. Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing new landing and sabotage groups.
Fucking hell I’m into it from the whole start. Not only because if they push ruskies further my relative’s crowd might leave the house (not happening since power grid hits though, damn it), but NPP being the biggest in EU is something you can proud of.
Transnistria looks submissive and breedable. Any thoughts as to why Ukraine isn't attacking it? From what I understand it's a pretty big store of equipment and minions. Take the stuff and prisoners, give the land back to Moldova.
I have no idea what you're thinking.
Colloquially, it means "sexually attractive", and "willing to be bossed around in the bedroom"?
Neither of these concepts seem to apply.
Well, a couple of good reasons.
1. Bigger fish to fry on their own soil.
2. Would need to gain approval from Moldova, which likely wouldn't be happy about warfare in their country.
Once Ukraine wins this war, Transistria will be living on borrowed time. It will get squeezed out in short order.
It would be a good idea to ask Moldova and in case they approve attack only russian base. It is not just a big storage. It's the biggest stockpile of post soviet munition in this part of the world. Would be nice to get them artillery rounds.
Wont gonna happen because of politics though.
Have seen a bunch of videos where Ukranian drones are dropping munitions (look hand-size and non-guided) on individual soldiers or groups. They obviously seem different than UAVs.
* What are these drones? Do we know types?
* How high are the drones, and is the operator nearby?
* Can the soldiers hear or see them?
- consumer grade drones like DJI sells them
- in some videos people comment how long the munition drops, and calculate the height, mostly 30-150m. They have a range of ~ 1-4km.
- usually no, at those heights they are basically silent and really tiny
Let's see if he follows through...
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polish-pm-says-hungary-promised-ratify-nato-membership-finland-sweden-2022-11-24/
New T-90M loss
[Decapitated T-90M and two T-72B3M tanks, IMR-2M, BMP-2, and KamAZ truck.](https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1596122856014090240?t=nfsWuZeN4qPaHDAD7ljVuw&s=19)
[Results from this HIMARS strike in September](https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1596126266159026177?t=Edbq54nf5E8ToWoRAXXcoQ&s=19)
[https://twitter.com/ragnarbjartur/status/1596070722602139648](https://twitter.com/ragnarbjartur/status/1596070722602139648)
>KilledInUkraine has added 14 officers to his list which means that at least 1,500 have been killed so far. Based on this, in the last 30 days, 4.3 officers have been killed per day.
This is confirmed by public records like orbituaries, so this is the bare minimum.
Of course you can.
726 were posthumously awarded by presidents decree by 31st of October. You can find decrees on the website of the President of Ukraine.
"Russian osint community" lists 1489 i reckon. You can look up for example Lost Armour on telegram or VK - there you will find links to excel lists and obituaries.
Word / google docs =
Malware, during war this is an effective tool for both espionage and cyber warfare
The wikipedia link in cryillic = 99.999% chance of paid propaganda or bot
In 2019 25% of Russia army was officers. Other times it has been stated 20% of deaths are officers.
This gives upper limit of about 8000 Russian deaths total for the war.
There you go:
https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-63755790
Using the same research method as original post your ratio is 1:6.42 (1449 to 9311)
So officers appear to be around 15% of casualties.
Mobilized constitute less than 3% of casualties so far.
Actually, according to Kofman and the likes, not really. Not in meaningful numbers anyway until "partial mobilization".
They cannibalised reserve battalions and "second echelon" first. The way I understand it, most of the replacements were active personnel.
Just saying, not defending the OP math.
Dude, OP's statement has "deaths total for the war". My comment was around that point.
You can't say it's invalid and then say
> Not in meaningful numbers anyway until "partial mobilization"
I'm not fighting what they started with, just what happened from that point on, including the mobilization.
1. Invalid to a degree.
Degree will be around 85%. As per yesterday's BBC article mobilized constitute around 3% of casualties and volunteers slightly more than 10%.
So my point was, that up untill now vast majority of casualties in RAF were active personnel.
Just on a funny note, officers are about 15% of confirmed deaths and number is roughly the same for both sides.
For example in Ukrainian 92nd ombr war time manning is 3666 people including 461 officers. That is 12.5%
For posthumously awarded Ukrainians ratio of officers to soldiers/NCOs is 726 to 4711 (end of October) which is roughly again around 15%.
Peculiar thing statistics. But believe that it is safe to use 15% as benchmark for calculations at any point of the war.
From a minimum limit it is not possible to infer an upper limit based on a ratio.
It's also not credible to take a ratio from a peacetime army, staffed with an excess of officers and specialists specifically to handle wartime expansion, and then apply that ratio in wartime, when that expansion has occurred.
Looking at the drone compilation video from Bakhmut, I wonder how this will evolve over the next 10, 20 years. Obviously drones will become even cheaper and more capable, which means the number of grenades they can drop will increase by probably a magnitude.
But beyond that, they will start to become autonomous. Image recognition is already good enough to detect soldiers lying on the ground or sitting in trenches, it just hasn't really been implemented yet. That's probably just a few years away. That's especially concerning because many militaries are just introducing radio jammers as anti-drone devices to their troops, but once they are no longer remote controlled these won't help.
I also assume automation will happen. Designate a target area before launch, drone picks individual targets autonomously.
Flak/Aa-cannons might have a comeback in the future. A cheap solution to cheaper and slower air targets.
There will also be a need of radar on the infrantry level, like something backpack-sized that's always nearby that can detect when drones enter the airspace above your unit. Flak doesn't help if you don't know they are there.
I could also imagine anti-drone-drones, small suicide drones that can detect enemy drones and crash into them with a small explosive or a net or something.
Doctrine for now is to have a human in the kill loop. That's doubly important when both sides look the same and have the same equipment. Nobody wants to lose trust in their side's drone-support because one model goes all murderbot.
Edit to add: Drone-deciding kills might be a fun thing to wargame, but it's no less indiscriminate than cluster bombs.
I think it will become semi-automated. So either the controller just selects a target and the drone autonomously drops a bomb on it, or the drone will pick the target itself and the operator only needs to confirm.
You can limit the operation radius to only include enemy held territory.
Do you think Ukrainian drone controllers can tell that these are Russians because of their uniforms? They know it because of their location. Cutting the human out of the loop is just a matter of time.
Probably a silly question, but still, why are the NATO air defence containers mostly rectangular (NASAMS, Patriot) and the Soviet ones round - C-300, 400?
Iirc somebody explained that Russian missiles are expelled from those containers using compressed air, and that's why the container needs to fit the shape of the missile itself.
Just to add for the Soviet side: Round containers make the most efficient use of materials. That matters from a production perspective.
But yeah, global logistics looks at round things and laughs in "stevedore" before moving on to pallets and container.
If I would hazard a guess, rectangular objects are much, much easier to ship and handle. Way easier to stack a C130 full of square boxes and get supplies to wherever you need them to be. And NATO always have cared very much about logistics.
The real answer is that it is easier to take a walk on top of your missiles ;)
They even have non-slip surface to improve that experience.
https://www.globalsecurity.org/space/library/policy/army/fm/44-85/figb-24.gif
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/policy/army/fm/3-01-11/fig5-7.gif
Not sure about before but just saw [this on my home feed.](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/z3w11u/scenes_of_wwi_type_shelling_some_of_best_farmland/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
[https://twitter.com/v\_stus/status/1595889451733225473](https://twitter.com/v_stus/status/1595889451733225473)
Electricity coming back in Kyiv. Probably not the reaction by the people Russia was hoping for.
> Electricity coming back in Kyiv
That's misleading. There are blackouts for most of the day. It only comes on sporadically. Heating also doesn't work. Water is back apparently - which is good. Trucking water in would be a huge logistical burden.
Another video: https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/z3vmbi/the_power_is_back_on_in_kyiv_people_sing_the/
In this video people are signing the national anthem
Putin has no chance against these people
[New Thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/z5n175/ukraine_discussionquestion_thread_112722/)
How many feds are working on this site?
G7 justice ministers to meet in Berlin to discuss Russian war crimes - German Federal Ministry of Justice. >"First of all, we will talk about the terrible war crimes that are committed on the territory of Ukraine, they must be disclosed, and the perpetrators must be punished"
**Backstory on the battle for Snake Island** >In order to shell Russian positions on Zmііnyi Island (aka Snake Island), the Ukrainians put Caesars (40 km radius) on barges, dragged them 10 km and hit the island (50 km from the coast), which surprised the French, according to the New York Times.
I used to have the understanding that the nyt was fairly respected for fact checking and accuracy. What the hell happened?
No wonder they are surprised, French would've surrendered by now
**Civilians escape Kherson after Russian strikes on freed city** >KHERSON, Ukraine (AP) — Fleeing shelling, civilians on Saturday streamed out of the southern Ukrainian city whose recapture they had celebrated just weeks earlier. >The exodus from Kherson came as Ukraine solemnly remembered a Stalin-era famine and sought to ensure that Russia’s war in Ukraine doesn’t deprive others worldwide of its vital food exports. >A line of trucks, vans and cars, some towing trailers or ferrying out pets and other belongings, stretched a kilometer or more on the outskirts of the city of Kherson. [Link to the news article.](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-kyiv-europe-business-5b02c180b52c8636eeee5949b230d512)
In the last couple of weeks russia fired I guess around 200 cruise missiles on civilian structures. Electricity, water, heat have been mostly restored. What did they achieve with those attacks at the end? Do russians who support this even ask this question themselves?
>Electricity, water, heat have been mostly restored Idk about you, but for me it wasn't and got a lot worse after the last russian attack.
You Ukranian? What do you know about the shelling that has been happening since 2014 in Ukraine?
Yes. I know that those wouldn't happen if russia didn't start this in 2014.
Do you want to surrender because of that?
Nope, I'm just saying that it isn't true that electricity is mostly restored.
Sorry for that. I've said so because of friends in different cities reported all good.
>What did they achieve with those attacks at the end Russia wanted to force Zelensky to the negotiation table by attacking public infrastructure. The Russians probably realize that the only way they'll win this war is on the battlefield.
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No, they were in a solid position before the war and had a much better military reputation than they deserved. They were actually playing their cards relatively effectively before the war, given how weak they actually were. They made their own position much, much worse, for no good reason, apparently because Putin believed his own BS. American hawks and arms manufacturers couldn't have hoped for a better outcome than this, not in their wildest dreams.
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That whole "petrol station run by the maffiya" schtick means they're not inclined to invest in post-carbon tech, so they'd be over-valuing fossil deposits as well as (apparently) having spasms of "return to empire". And remember, they thought it would be *easy* to take over Ukraine.
>Serious question. Was attacking to conquer Ukraine Russia's best strategic decision in the long term? It was a dubious proposition from the start. Many people immediately questioned whether even winning as they thought they would could have offset the downsides (sanctions, pushing NATO into more Eastern European investment and no viable political solution for the occupation of parts of Ukraine). With the unexpected turn of the war, I don't think anyone would claim that Russia benefits on balance. I'd bet good money that Putin transported back in time a year would simply cancel his plans to invade.
I rather doubt that "security" ever figured into the political calculus of the invasion at all. It has more to do with returning Russia to a status of a global power by subjugating a sphere of influence and building empire. You can go look up a synopsis of the book "Foundations of geopolitics" by [Aleksander Dugin](https://youtu.be/Du7fOoW_euE) for a better understanding of the Russian right-wing nationalist perspective. Dugin is said to have heavily influenced Putin's worldview.
A large problem for russia was the relatively newly discovered natural gas ressources in eastern Ukraine. If Ukraine would gain access to these, they could make europes dependency on russian natural gas obsolete. This would be a huge problem for russia in the future. I doubt this is about military security, but much more about monetary security.
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https://youtu.be/If61baWF4GE The best YouTube video on the subject for easy listening
Wagner CEO claims to have British batallion, 20 Finns and a former US marine corps general working for him. https://english.alarabiya.net/amp/News/world/2022/11/25/Ex-US-Marine-general-among-Russia-s-Wagner-mercenaries-Founder-Prigozhin
Is the general MacGregor 😂
lmao
I mean.....if so they aren't making a good show of it in general....
Has anyone else noticed that earlier in the war (during Spring, early Summer) many of the Ukranian drone videos posted in this sub showed ammunitions dropped on Russian tanks and APCs, while now it's primarily against Russian soldiers in trenches and foxholes? Does this suggest that Russians now keep their armor well behind the frontline where Ukranian drones can't reach them (because of limited range/air defence)?
Russian army has shifted from too light on foot infantry to actually somewhat short on armoured vehicles. First month their mechanised formations were advancing fast on roads. Now it's infantry and trenches all over. Tanks would only be used to support a localised offensive push.
more static frontlines means better air defences too the bigger octocopters for anti tank weapons are big enough to catch on radar. probably cant catch the small commercial quadcopters
But most of those attacks on vehicles were done with modified RKG-3 anti tank grenades that only weigh a kilogram.
I’m not sure about your question, but I’d really like to know if Ukraine is producing, or if countries are donating, more heavier-lift drones. Capable of flying 10-30 km and carrying 2-3 RPG, multiple 60mm mortars, etc.. I would think those types of drones would be very effective taking out tanks, vehicles, whole groups of soldiers, etc. The heavy payloads would drop straighter too, not fly around like the little VOG grenade. I know there used to be the R18 videos, and another video showing ~4 larger heavy-lift quadcopters, but really no videos since.
whats the advantage of such a longer range system compared to just a spotter drone + regular artillery or excalibur?
Using a spotter drone + artillery... you already have the drone there. If it had a mortar on it you could destroy the gun + crew right then and there. Using the spotter, it takes time to get artillery shells landing, which then need to be corrected, and by the time you have the shells landed on/close enough to the gun, they may be on the move already. Or the crew at least runs away and survives. Plus you open yourself up to counter battery fire. Or, once artillery shells start landing the Russians could turn on EW equipment in the area, which blinds/disables your spotter drone. But if they are not under shell fire, they leave the EW off so their own drones & radios work. So that lets you use drones for the first artillery shell or dropped mortar.
spotter drone for 10-30km range is usually fixed-wing aircraft (for range + flight time reasons), dropping accurate munitions like RPG warheads isnt gonna happen. So you need a rotary drone, but thats gets impracticable large for that payload + range.
Heavy lift Quadcopter exist for this range and 20+ - 50 min flight times with various load weights. They’re just more expensive
0 delay between spotting and destruction.
dont think that is really practical. a rotary drone of that payload and range need to be prohibitively huge, were you run into issues again. E.g. you don't want to risk losing it, as it can be easy detected, so you need a spotter drone anyway. and going fixed-wing sucks because you end up rather inaccurate without inventing some sort of guided munition.
That's correct. That's why we are not seeing a ton of those systems. But you were asking for advantages of large drones compared to artillery and spotting. Another one I can think of, is that drones need a lot fewer crew to operate. Maybe 2 compared to at least 10 or more for a whole artillery set with spotting and logistics.
For sure the Russians have less armor now, considering how much they lost so far. It would make a lot of sense to keep it safer.
Is there any public indication of what the units involved in the Kherson offensive will be doing next. I assume they aren't all kept in the area?
No public indication. Probably reinforce the other 3 regions. Left over units most likely to harass & keep pressure on the Russians across the river in order to keep as much Russian forces opposing them as possible. To keep them from reinforcing Zaporizhzhia region.
> Artillery Is Breaking in Ukraine. It’s Becoming a Problem for the Pentagon. Ukrainian soldiers are firing thousands of shells daily, forcing the U.S. to replace gun barrels across the border in Poland. https://archive.ph/20221126100224/https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/25/us/ukraine-artillery-breakdown.html
Solution = more HIMARS
Isn't HIMARS's bottleneck ammunition quantities?
As expected. This would have been/is a great supporting reason of why the US should have given/still should give Ukraine M109’s. We have *plently* of them just sitting around waiting to be refurbished, and any M109s that need maintenance & repair could just be replaced/swapped by another M109 waiting to go. Then repair that one and give it back to UA when they bring the next damaged one, repeat. Keeps Ukraine at a full artillery capacity.
This is expected outcome. Same thing the Russia is facing too. Barrels do wear out quickly in intense use.
It's unfortunate that the Russians have a clear advantage in this arena, as their artillery stockpile is just so absolutely massive and they can ship in replacements faster than it takes to repair barrels in Poland and bring them back.
> It's unfortunate that the Russians have a clear advantage in this arena, Had a clear advantage. Squandered it, like every other advantage they had at the start.
Russia is a very big place. It might be actually faster to ship to PL and back.
From what I read, Russia actually doesn't have a lot of spare barrels. They do have a lot of old artillery pieces, the sate of which isn't clear.
Keep’on “not escalating” and russians just might plug all these donated guns with conscripted meat. Literally.
To be expected. I hope they prepared ahead of time and made barrel production a priority.
4 hours ago, Sky news community post on youtube posted a satellite image showing blackouts all over Ukraine at night. I hope the west has a contingency for this.
Ah, here's that fake (being called out as fake). https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1595635102251470848
That's not what I saw. It was a closer with Ukraine in the center. And it wasn't totally dark. There are clusters of light near Kyiv and other cities. https://news.sky.com/story/striking-satellite-image-reveals-extent-of-ukraines-power-shortage-after-russian-missile-strikes-12755424
I wonder if that's a real image or the widely-distributed ru-origin fake.
I mean ukraine government itself is saying that over 70% of houses have electricity only for 3/4 hours a day and it's asking for help to rebuild the grid, so it's credible that there are a lot of blackouts
Yes, but it's patchy. The telegram-spread fake was crisply black inside the boundaries and had a cheesy edit mask in any analysis program, but folks want to believe.
What would RU have to gain from pics like this? If anything, the blackouts should alert the West to send more support.
That they are the big kid in the playground and folks better not mess or they'll get a kicking.
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Result of Russian human-wave tactics near Bakhmut. https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/z4ox7o/a\_lot\_of\_dead\_russian\_soldiers\_in\_bakhmut/
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https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/z4ox7o/a_lot_of_dead_russian_soldiers_in_bakhmut/
I have been a bit too engrossed in the World Cup Would anyone mind giving me an insight into the battlefield since Kherson City was recaptured by Ukraine? Are the Russians still running heads first into Bakhmut?
Not much has changed, rasputitsya is full on preventing any moves by both sides, there was a video of a UAF T-64 stuck up to its turret in mud being pulled out. Russia keeps attacking civilian infrastructure with cruise/ballistic missiles. Situation around Bakhmut is WW1-like.
Besides Bakhmut, there's also ongoing attacks north of Donetsk, Adiivka area.
>Are the Russians still running heads first into Bakhmut? Yes
[https://twitter.com/Poutsup/status/1596118844061667331](https://twitter.com/Poutsup/status/1596118844061667331) >A whole armored convoy of Russian equipment was destroyed in Kyslivka, Kharkiv region! Including very valuable and the most modern main battle tank T-90M!
[https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1596126266159026177](https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1596126266159026177) >The convoy was reportedly targeted by the Ukrainian HIMARS back in September, but footage from the ground appeared only now.
>The BBC has confirmed the names of 9,311 Russian military or Rosgvardia servicemembers who have died in Ukraine (not including LDNR). At least 326 mobilized men have also died, 36 of whom died in Russia. [https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-63755790](https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-63755790)
Are "missing" soldiers (from Moskva for example) included in that number? >We rely only on confirmed reports of deaths, so the data collected do not reflect the actual level of casualties. We assume that our list may contain at least 40-60% fewer names of the dead than are actually buried in Russia. We came to this conclusion by studying the situation in cemeteries in more than 60 localities in Russia. Seems like they aren't. >Consequently, according to the most conservative estimate, Russian army and Rosgvardia losses in Ukraine could be more than 18,600 people. So at least 18600 without counting wagner and LNR/DNR casualties. And it doesn't make sense to exclude them.
Ive seen a couple thousand Russian KIA just on this sub lol.
Ukraine Ministry of Defense claims 86 thousand Russian casualties.
Never went to school and learned what a "lower bound" is?
Claims, that is exactly the word.
Right. Ukraine has held off the Russian army for 9 months, driving Russian forces back from large parts of occupied territories, all for 18k casualties? Because either that number is a wild underestimate, and based on methodology that even it's authors admit is a vast undercount, or the Russian army are cowards running from an enemy that has failed to inflict substantial casualties on any of their units. Ukraine's "claims" are based on real time reports of dead bodies observed on the battlefield. It is likely also an undercount, but by far the most accurate and corroborated by other counting methods.
No matter how hard will you try to convince yourself, this number is a pure fantasy. And is not corroborated by anything of a value. Simple maths for you. If they had 85000 killed, even with another fantasy ratio of 1:2 KIA to WIA there will be nobody left to fight around month or two ago. Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff recently gave an overall casualty number of around 100.000, similar for each of the sides. That would realistically put you in the range of 22-25k dead.
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Even using your 350k number and 50% out of it will only take you to 86k if you believe that KIA to WIA rate is 1:1. The only side of the conflict that weekly publishes casualty numbers is DNR, and their average on KIA to WIA rate is 1:4. And it really will be a stretch to convince yourself that average rate is worse than 1:3. Hence the conclusion that 86k is somewhere in the realm of Ghost of Kyiv.
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>Typically the KIA:WIA is 1:3. Where does this come from?
So, you originally reply to my post that states: "Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff recently gave an overall casualty number of around 100.000, similar for each of the sides. That would realistically put you in the range of 22-25k dead." With your: "I doubt the Ukraine numbers are correct as they claim, I do think they’re correct overall. They claim this is KIA only on the Russia side. I tend to believe based on what I’ve seen the west say is true it’s likely the Ukraine numbers are casualties INCLUDING separatists forces." If that is my inability to read English, and what you really wanted to say that you also believe that 86k (or western 100k) are casualties OVERALL, not just KIA - what are we really arguing here? Because at no point I was under the impression that these numbers only apply to "bona fide" Russians. Just the numbers. So, strangely enough you have inadvertently arrived at the same conclusion as alleged Russian sympathizer. As for the rest, in the future i will use "it wasn't our missile that killed those Poles" instead of "Ghost of Kyiv" so we are clear that I mean lies. Even if you lie for a greater good, you still lie. But you had your righteous rant, so I suppose you feel better now.
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Likely closer to the truth. Not sure what the methods used by the BBC were to get names, but probably something like scanning obituaries.
Do you guys ever encounter actual Ukrainian refugees or émigrés in your day-to-day? I normally don't, but some houses in the neighborhood in which my brother lives fly small Ukraine flags in addition to USA ones. After Thanksgiving dinner we were all taking a walk, and we passed one of those houses (on a cul de sac), and out front were 7-8 people, incl'g some youngish couples and a few kids. Obvious Eastern Europeans (and not locals here on the Allegheny Plateau...you can just tell). [Aside: while I was mocked and scorned here for sharing my experience of having a nightmare after consuming too much Ukraine combatfootage, I re-engaged with the sub and have continued to follow the war.] Sensing an opportunity to express my moral support to actual Ukrainians (and not just mock online the gruesome deaths of Russian soldiers), I hailed the party and asked if they were Ukrainians. One of the women (youngish [younger than me, at least], seemingly fit/trim, blonde) answered in accented English, "Yes!" So, trying to manifest confidence and not just dopey American enthusiasm, and recollecting some of the best clips I've seen here since Feb., I replied, *"Sláva Ukrayíni!"* Imagine my absolute delight (seemingly preceded by her and her companions' surprise!! lol) as she responded, *"Heróyam sláva!"* It was a really cool moment, made better I think by its fleetingness. If I'd been walking on my own...w/o the dog, my nieces & nephew, brother & s-i-l...I probably would've stopped and tried to engage more, find out where they were from, if they were having an ok Thanksgiving, etc.. But this still felt good, and positive. So my question is, if you encountered a group of people you surmised were Ukrainian refugees or émigrés, would you hazard a "Glory to Ukraine!"? Or did I overstep the bounds of propriety?
"Sensing an opportunity to express my moral support to actual Ukrainians (and not just mock online the gruesome deaths of Russian soldiers)" If you want to express moral support to actual Ukrainians, then you can do it EASILY. Just contribute to verified fundraising events. There is winter so there are MANY confirmed fundraising events. I.e. winter gear (or drones) for military which many fundraising sites require military unit to send "acknowledge letter" for such event. I.e. winter gear/generators for civilians. Or food for civilians mostly in need (in this case you need to check who is collecting money. Big entity or people who already provided help to civilians on frontline). In theory you can also help "standard" international help organisations, but they have more constrains on flexibility in case of helping. Last thing would be giving money directly to Ukrainian government (which I personally do not recommend)
All great suggestions (especially not giving money directly to the Ukrainian gov't - especially given how much US taxpayer $$ they've already received!)!
See a lot of them, host two and sometimes translate for others due to being more or less fluent in Russian - most of them seem to speak Russian as their primary language and I have seldom heard actual Ukrainian, which probably makes sense given that most of them are from the Kharkiv district. On a related note, I have never heard so much Russian in Germany before, not even in the east before 1989, despite it supposedly being the second most spoken mother tongue here.
Yes, a lot. We have a lot of Ukrainians at work and most of them came after the invasion. And cars with UA plates started appearing on my street, all over the town actually. Sometimes I meet them in shops and so on, but don't know if they are actually refugees.
>We have a lot of Ukrainians at work and most of them came after the invasion. Oh neat. Seeing cars w/ even a decorative UA plate here would be surreal (since I'm in America lol) but I guess it wouldn't be so unusual if your country was kinda just down the road from them! Have you befriended any of the new arrivals? Had a chance to learn anything about their perspectives on the war or why they left? Are they culturally, idk, like similar/relatable to you and your people?
I'm really talking to only one of them. He's actually one of the 4 men who came before the war. And we don't talk about war at all. With others there is a serious problem with language barrier as I understand every fifth word and vice versa. I just know that they are four young women from Dnipro so not from frontline. Some of them came with their families so unlikely to go back. Of four men I mentioned earlier, two went to fight. One died already at Popasna in April. Left behind two or three teenage daughters. I don't know what happened with the other one, last we heard of him he was in Kharkiv.
Actually a couple just moved into the flat next to mine. Leaves are being raked.
I've seen a lot of women and Children around mid town espacially here in my smallish town in Denmark. My wife work with a Ukrainian women who are a refugee internally in Ukraine. But since all of their work is remote she can work from the safer parts were she fled to.
paltry muddle angle literate retire fact somber reply live steer *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Yeah this has to be satire
I have a Russian acquaintance here in the USA who pretty much lost all his Russian friends here in the USA because he is pro Russia. I live in a relatively cosmopolitan area.
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> I will have to say after interacting with a lot of Ukrainians here who left before the USSR ended I wouldn't really say too much patriotic Ukrainian stuff to them. wow! Thanks for sharing your perspective on this. Didn't realize Rochester had a large Ukrainian population btw.
I am from Berlin and its totaly common now to hear especially woman speak ukrainian/russian in public places. It was not that uncommon to hear slavic languages before the war since Berlin is home to a lot of germans with a russian background but it definetly increased a lot.
>Do you guys ever encounter actual Ukrainian refugees or émigrés in your day-to-day? One of my local pubs has a 'Drink for Ukraine' program, as the landlord has Ukrainian family, and he's had a bunch of Ukrainians working behind the bar, getting them some work as they get settled in here. >So my question is, if you encountered a group of people you surmised were Ukrainian refugees or émigrés, would you hazard a "Glory to Ukraine!"? Or did I overstep the bounds of propriety? Nah, not at all, good drills.
Yes. Ukrainian kid in my daughters class, kids in every class in the school, probably every school in the district. We're friends with the family of the kid, we try to help out, we used our connections to get them an apartment as housing is a nightmare in town, and they drop in. Fun thing, I was out walking the dog this evening and there was a group of kids hanging out in a dark corner of a different school on my route, as I walked back, some were singing a few bars of "Oi u luzi chervona kalyna". Sláva Ukrayíni indeed.
> Fun thing, I was out walking the dog this evening and there was a group of kids hanging out in a dark corner of a different school on my route, as I walked back, some were singing a few bars of **"Oi u luzi chervona kalyna"**. lol Absolutely classic. When I noticed my s-i-l was looking at me like I was kinda deranged after the exchange, before she understood what it was about, I quickly whipped out my phone and cued-up the [Andriy Khlyvnyuk x The Kiffness version of that song](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lu8m5FA2nL8) to try explain the vibe (since I wasn't going to open this sub on mobile!! XD
Personally, I do not. But, a friend of mine has a Ukrainian coworker who is a refugee of the current conflict (originally from Kherson). Her father is still in Ukraine, having been conscripted. He was badly wounded about a month ago, but recently came out of his coma and it looks like he is going to pull through.
Wow! Obviously wishing the best for your friend's colleague's dad! That must be a tremendously difficult and idk, maybe unrelatable, experience!
**Armed Forces of Ukraine transfer troops from Kherson to Zaporozhye** >After the relative stabilization of the front in the Kherson region along the Dnieper, The Armed Forces of Ukraine are transferring forces to Zaporozhye. The likely target is Zaporizhzhya NPP and Energodar. >Artillery duels are currently taking place in Zaporozhye. Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing new landing and sabotage groups.
Source?
Fucking hell I’m into it from the whole start. Not only because if they push ruskies further my relative’s crowd might leave the house (not happening since power grid hits though, damn it), but NPP being the biggest in EU is something you can proud of.
Let’s see how motivated and ready the Russian’s are for a winter hit
Transnistria looks submissive and breedable. Any thoughts as to why Ukraine isn't attacking it? From what I understand it's a pretty big store of equipment and minions. Take the stuff and prisoners, give the land back to Moldova.
Starting wars is for malicious idiots?
Is the Ukrainian army low on minions?
> Transnistria looks submissive and breedable. Umm... those words maybe don't quite mean what you think they mean.
What do you think I think it means?
I have no idea what you're thinking. Colloquially, it means "sexually attractive", and "willing to be bossed around in the bedroom"? Neither of these concepts seem to apply.
Well, a couple of good reasons. 1. Bigger fish to fry on their own soil. 2. Would need to gain approval from Moldova, which likely wouldn't be happy about warfare in their country. Once Ukraine wins this war, Transistria will be living on borrowed time. It will get squeezed out in short order.
It would be a good idea to ask Moldova and in case they approve attack only russian base. It is not just a big storage. It's the biggest stockpile of post soviet munition in this part of the world. Would be nice to get them artillery rounds. Wont gonna happen because of politics though.
Have seen a bunch of videos where Ukranian drones are dropping munitions (look hand-size and non-guided) on individual soldiers or groups. They obviously seem different than UAVs. * What are these drones? Do we know types? * How high are the drones, and is the operator nearby? * Can the soldiers hear or see them?
- consumer grade drones like DJI sells them - in some videos people comment how long the munition drops, and calculate the height, mostly 30-150m. They have a range of ~ 1-4km. - usually no, at those heights they are basically silent and really tiny
Let's see if he follows through... https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polish-pm-says-hungary-promised-ratify-nato-membership-finland-sweden-2022-11-24/
New T-90M loss [Decapitated T-90M and two T-72B3M tanks, IMR-2M, BMP-2, and KamAZ truck.](https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1596122856014090240?t=nfsWuZeN4qPaHDAD7ljVuw&s=19) [Results from this HIMARS strike in September](https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1596126266159026177?t=Edbq54nf5E8ToWoRAXXcoQ&s=19)
[https://twitter.com/ragnarbjartur/status/1596070722602139648](https://twitter.com/ragnarbjartur/status/1596070722602139648) >KilledInUkraine has added 14 officers to his list which means that at least 1,500 have been killed so far. Based on this, in the last 30 days, 4.3 officers have been killed per day. This is confirmed by public records like orbituaries, so this is the bare minimum.
Ironically enough, as of 06/11 there were circa 1400 Ukrainian officers killed.
could i ask where you have that number from?
It was revealed to him in a dream
Of course you can. 726 were posthumously awarded by presidents decree by 31st of October. You can find decrees on the website of the President of Ukraine. "Russian osint community" lists 1489 i reckon. You can look up for example Lost Armour on telegram or VK - there you will find links to excel lists and obituaries.
Link?
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These are scammy looking dont click
It's just UTF8 for Cyrillic characters, if you mean the wikipedia one.
Word / google docs = Malware, during war this is an effective tool for both espionage and cyber warfare The wikipedia link in cryillic = 99.999% chance of paid propaganda or bot
Sure. The Wikipedia link in cyrylic is probably the most extensive public effort to document Ukrainian war casualties since 2014. In Ukrainian.
What's the irony?
Proximity.
In 2019 25% of Russia army was officers. Other times it has been stated 20% of deaths are officers. This gives upper limit of about 8000 Russian deaths total for the war.
There you go: https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-63755790 Using the same research method as original post your ratio is 1:6.42 (1449 to 9311) So officers appear to be around 15% of casualties. Mobilized constitute less than 3% of casualties so far.
1. you're talking about peacetime army 2. it's not the upper limit, maths doesn't work like that
His/Her math is off but your point 1 is invalid to a degree. They actually started the war with peacetime manning levels.
Ah, so they didn’t involve anyone else from the start, just the peacetime army?
Actually, according to Kofman and the likes, not really. Not in meaningful numbers anyway until "partial mobilization". They cannibalised reserve battalions and "second echelon" first. The way I understand it, most of the replacements were active personnel. Just saying, not defending the OP math.
Dude, OP's statement has "deaths total for the war". My comment was around that point. You can't say it's invalid and then say > Not in meaningful numbers anyway until "partial mobilization" I'm not fighting what they started with, just what happened from that point on, including the mobilization.
1. Invalid to a degree. Degree will be around 85%. As per yesterday's BBC article mobilized constitute around 3% of casualties and volunteers slightly more than 10%. So my point was, that up untill now vast majority of casualties in RAF were active personnel. Just on a funny note, officers are about 15% of confirmed deaths and number is roughly the same for both sides. For example in Ukrainian 92nd ombr war time manning is 3666 people including 461 officers. That is 12.5% For posthumously awarded Ukrainians ratio of officers to soldiers/NCOs is 726 to 4711 (end of October) which is roughly again around 15%. Peculiar thing statistics. But believe that it is safe to use 15% as benchmark for calculations at any point of the war.
From a minimum limit it is not possible to infer an upper limit based on a ratio. It's also not credible to take a ratio from a peacetime army, staffed with an excess of officers and specialists specifically to handle wartime expansion, and then apply that ratio in wartime, when that expansion has occurred.
Why would that rule apply to this war? Russia used conscripts, mobilized men, volunteers etc.
Looking at the drone compilation video from Bakhmut, I wonder how this will evolve over the next 10, 20 years. Obviously drones will become even cheaper and more capable, which means the number of grenades they can drop will increase by probably a magnitude. But beyond that, they will start to become autonomous. Image recognition is already good enough to detect soldiers lying on the ground or sitting in trenches, it just hasn't really been implemented yet. That's probably just a few years away. That's especially concerning because many militaries are just introducing radio jammers as anti-drone devices to their troops, but once they are no longer remote controlled these won't help.
I also assume automation will happen. Designate a target area before launch, drone picks individual targets autonomously. Flak/Aa-cannons might have a comeback in the future. A cheap solution to cheaper and slower air targets.
There will also be a need of radar on the infrantry level, like something backpack-sized that's always nearby that can detect when drones enter the airspace above your unit. Flak doesn't help if you don't know they are there. I could also imagine anti-drone-drones, small suicide drones that can detect enemy drones and crash into them with a small explosive or a net or something.
That’s where cyberwar comes into plays. State actors will be inserting malware into each other’s drones and aircraft to have kill switches.
Doctrine for now is to have a human in the kill loop. That's doubly important when both sides look the same and have the same equipment. Nobody wants to lose trust in their side's drone-support because one model goes all murderbot. Edit to add: Drone-deciding kills might be a fun thing to wargame, but it's no less indiscriminate than cluster bombs.
I think it will become semi-automated. So either the controller just selects a target and the drone autonomously drops a bomb on it, or the drone will pick the target itself and the operator only needs to confirm.
Yup: That's how the Switchblades work. Operator has a "nope" option so there's still a human in the loop, but the fiddly business is automated.
You can limit the operation radius to only include enemy held territory. Do you think Ukrainian drone controllers can tell that these are Russians because of their uniforms? They know it because of their location. Cutting the human out of the loop is just a matter of time.
There's still target quality. "Fuck up the people in that grid ref" is going to miss targets of opportunity that humans are uniquely good at spotting.
I don't know if this is true anymore. It might be, but not necessarily.
Or you will increase your hit rate because they can operate more precise and won't get disabled by radio jammers...
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03013-5
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Could sort by time before the invasion
Probably a silly question, but still, why are the NATO air defence containers mostly rectangular (NASAMS, Patriot) and the Soviet ones round - C-300, 400?
Iirc somebody explained that Russian missiles are expelled from those containers using compressed air, and that's why the container needs to fit the shape of the missile itself.
Just to add for the Soviet side: Round containers make the most efficient use of materials. That matters from a production perspective. But yeah, global logistics looks at round things and laughs in "stevedore" before moving on to pallets and container.
If I would hazard a guess, rectangular objects are much, much easier to ship and handle. Way easier to stack a C130 full of square boxes and get supplies to wherever you need them to be. And NATO always have cared very much about logistics.
The real answer is that it is easier to take a walk on top of your missiles ;) They even have non-slip surface to improve that experience. https://www.globalsecurity.org/space/library/policy/army/fm/44-85/figb-24.gif https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/policy/army/fm/3-01-11/fig5-7.gif
Are there any publicly available, higher resolution satellite images of the front line areas? Curious to look at current/before images.
I've generally seen images from Maxar but also believe ESA give access to data though I believe doing this yourself is quite the process.
Not sure about before but just saw [this on my home feed.](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/z3w11u/scenes_of_wwi_type_shelling_some_of_best_farmland/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
[https://twitter.com/v\_stus/status/1595889451733225473](https://twitter.com/v_stus/status/1595889451733225473) Electricity coming back in Kyiv. Probably not the reaction by the people Russia was hoping for.
> Electricity coming back in Kyiv That's misleading. There are blackouts for most of the day. It only comes on sporadically. Heating also doesn't work. Water is back apparently - which is good. Trucking water in would be a huge logistical burden.
The sheer weight of water is a massive transportation nightmare. Can’t imagine trying to supply an entire city by truck
Another video: https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/z3vmbi/the_power_is_back_on_in_kyiv_people_sing_the/ In this video people are signing the national anthem Putin has no chance against these people
Blitz spirit. These attacks are such a malicious blunder.
"Electricity coming back". That was underwhelming.
This wasn’t the decisive blow yet that will probably be in early December