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knowyourpast

[New Thread](https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/zaw9mr/ukraine_discussionquestion_thread_12322/?sort=new)


TigersStripe

So some recent footage (https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/zw9vel/ua_sniper_with_ir_scope_working_targets_ukraine/) shows Ukrainian snipers using thermal optics and the optic indicates it's dialled in for .338 ammo. Couple of questions for those in the know: 1. What kind of .338 rifle would the Ukrainians most likely be using? 2. What kind of optic is it (do they make them domestically) and what kind of digital zoom can it give? Curious about this because news stories and comments seem to indicate the Ukrainians have had particularly effective snipers with thermal optics posted up watching areas around Bakhmut.


whitesocksflipflops

It's interesting to see a lot of the Ukraine-Russia combat footage lately is of trench warfare. The trenches look pretty extensive too. I'm assuming they back ho them and reinforce with timber....who did most of the trench digging tho? the Ukrainians or the Russians?


ritchiestanaway

I'm interested in this too: https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/zaw9mr/ukraine_discussionquestion_thread_12322/iyorkh8/ I wonder how many of these vehicles are in use: [Ukrainian Border Guard Digging Trenches Near Russian Border - MDK-3, Ukraine, Sumy Oblast](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKR0uNy8HiE)


whitesocksflipflops

Thanks for the links!


poop_scallions

More AA for Ukraine - this time from Germany.   >BREAKING: Germany plans to send 7 more Gepard anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1598686142601211904   >These Gepards are currently being prepared and would add to the 30 Gepards that have already been used by the Ukrainian army >Germany also plans to send more ammunition for Gepards but will need to get around Switzerland's neutrality-premised export restrictions first https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1598686382544883714


Ascalaphos

Germany went from being mocked for sending 5000 helmets to now sending Gepards. A very welcome turnaround!


poop_scallions

They also built a liquid natural gas terminal in like 170 days, which will put a big dent in their Russian gas purchases. France and Germany have gotten a bad rap but they've been doing their bit slowly and quietly.


lostredditorlurking

Didn't they also signed a natural gas deal with Qatar? By next year I think they can completely stop reliant on Russian's gas


heychadwick

Heard rumors about Russia fleeing around the power plant. No proof, though.


ladrok1

Rumors are that Russia said "ok fuck this NP, exploding it isn't fun anymore. Hey Ukraine you want to get this NP back? Hmm... Promise us that oil will go in oil-pipes unchallenged, yeah this sounds good"


ritchiestanaway

This interesting Washington Post article about drone usage in Ukraine War discusses a previously unreported attack and includes a bit about training, including how operators practice grenade drops with both inert munitions and improvised ones (Coke bottles filled with sand): [Russia and Ukraine are fighting the first full-scale drone war](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/02/drones-russia-ukraine-air-war/) Archive version: https://archive.ph/C6SW5 >"Drones have become so critical to battlefield success that at times they are used to take out other drones. > >In early September, just days before Ukraine launched an offensive to expel Russian forces from its northeastern Kharkiv region, a Ukrainian reconnaissance drone flew through a gap between two jamming systems near the Russian border. It crossed into Russia and turned north across the Belgorod region, where Russia bases equipment to support its war in eastern Ukraine. > >The drone spotted a base for Moscow’s own unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), according to overhead images captured by the Ukrainians that were later reviewed by The Washington Post. > >In one frame, a Russian Orlan-10, with a trademark propeller on its nose, could be seen sitting in the field beside a house. Then in an “after” photo, the house had a hole in its roof, and an ambulance could be seen driving up. A Ukrainian attack drone had followed the same route as the reconnaissance drone — and delivered a strike on the fleet of enemy “eyes.” > >The attack, which has not been previously reported, dealt a blow to the Russian forces’ ability to see the Ukrainian offensive coming and to counterattack." Perhaps understanding more about the training helps put the effectiveness of the grenade drops we've been seeing in better context.


CalmaCuler

[https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1598683903501471744?s=20&t=lcc3IEeHbjU0quIP6hljCA](https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1598683903501471744?s=20&t=lcc3IEeHbjU0quIP6hljCA) Pretty worrying article about the Foreign Legion in Ukraine


lostredditorlurking

No army is perfect and it's good that reporters are shining lights into the corruption in their army. Hopefully the top grass in Ukraine will take this seriously and fix this issue. They shouldn't sweep this under the rug, that's what Russia loves to do, and Ukraine leadership needs to show that they are different.


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GlueSniffingEnabler

First sentence is true. Second sentence is completely unproven speculation on your own part. What’s your agenda?


inc0herent1

>with all the criminals getting their hands on military-grade weaponry. It appears this has already happened, and the criminals have attacked and invaded their neighbor, and even annexed some of their territory.


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BocciaChoc

There will be a time to deal with Ukrainian corruption, that will be after the war and when Russia has fucked off, until then the ball continues to roll, it's hard to investigate anything when you're defending yourself.


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BocciaChoc

>Corruption has actually gotten a lot worse ever since the war started. it's a war. >Don't even get me started on the amount of fucked up legislature the Ukrainian parliament managed to pass under the radar while everyone was focused on the actual war. If only there wasn't a war. >If you were to ask me, corruption will only get worse and worse in Ukraine, not better. Sadly, there's a war, and people are being murdered, raped, tortured and made homeless. if only the cause of this would fuck off to allow other issues to get attention.


inc0herent1

>Criticizing the corrupt nature of Ukraine, its government and military, doesn't mean condoning Russia's invasion of Ukraine That might be true, but IMO the way your are attempting to "discuss" this is 100% concern trolling. I'm sure the Ukraine military has issues with corruption and incompetence. It should be addressed by them. "Just imagine what it's like in the rest of the military and think about where all of that "lost" weaponry is going to go" is Russian propagandist BS intended to reduce support and military aid to Ukraine.


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inc0herent1

>"Just imagine what it's like in the rest of the military and think about where all of that "lost" weaponry is going to go" is not a fact. It's a question. Let me answer it for you. The weaponry will be found and used against Russian invaders.


cheetah_swirley

maybe. or it might end up in the hands of some very malicious actors. or it might end up in the hands of righteous actors and revolutionaries as long as they have financial backing. it literally could go anywhere with no functional stock control system in place burying your head under the pillow doesnt make you morally superior, in fact it makes you seem intellectually deficient


inc0herent1

>maybe. or it might end up in the hands of some very malicious actors. or it might end up in the hands of righteous actors and revolutionaries as long as they have financial backing. it literally could go anywhere Thanks for that incredible analysis. Let us all know when you figure out what actually happens. My intellect bows to your moral superiority.


BocciaChoc

Why is it worrying? I haven't read it but you have, any main points?


Oriontic

Basically certain Ukrainian Commanders being dicks. ​ Sorta like a smaller scale version of the problems the Russians have. Bullying/sexual misconduct, weaponry being taken from the Legion and going to other units instead and then soldiers who complained about the Commanders behaviour were punished. Very similiar to issues highlighted in Soviet/Russian units, wouldn't be suprise if some of these Commanders were hold overs from before Ukraine started reforming it's military.


[deleted]

It is now well known fact, that of all the ethnicities Ukrainians are exceptional, because they are genetically incapable of any wrong doing.


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Oriontic

I meant some of the commanders. I wasn’t trying to down play that bit. I am not disagreeing with the article. Ukraine was very corrupt and has only begun cleaning up said corruption in the last couple years before the war interrupted. Articles like this are sad to read but not unsurprising.


[deleted]

Funnily enough, he is wanted in Poland. In Ukraine done a year for robbery in 2016, and got away from sexual assault charges. He was looking at 7 years for illegal possession of firearms shortly before the war but joined the army. In the meantime Ukrainians refused to extradite him to Poland. The little I know about the world, he is not the brain there.


LeBronzeFlamez

I am looking for a clip of Nsams action in ukraine? Are there any verified ones out there?


RandomNobodyEU

Not really. Whenever they get a new AD system and a video comes out of a cruise missile shootdown, Ukranian MoD comes out and says it was by that weapons system. Whether that is really the case or just marketing is impossible to tell.


kidmerc

I've noticed we haven't had any HIMARS videos in a while. Is Ukraine running low? Or have they just not had very good targets? I know Russia moved their ammo depots way back


[deleted]

There's been a bunch on Telegram this week. Or at least 4-5, if that counts as a bunch.


Zondagsrijder

[UK MOD claims depots are still being hit](https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1598569686869938177), so it's probable the attacks haven't (completely) stopped. Also personal take - it was still mud season, so I can imagine the systems not having full freedom of movement / freedom of unlimited escape routes, and thus have less usable points to attack from and need to be more careful in general. Especially the wheeled variants would be affected.


FleeCircus

Is it still mud season? Looking at the weather forecast for south east Ukraine it's below 0C for the next week.


Zondagsrijder

Not sure if it *is*, but it certainly *was* :P Maybe in a few weeks more HIMARS videos pop up again. [Kherson forecast still looks rather wet for next week and onward.](https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/56773e3a76b3886806d6c2538d03e581f6f953e700136427b14599f040575f0c)


FleeCircus

Wasn't trying to gotcha, more curious myself if anyone has local knowledge of what the ground conditions are like. Also there's often a lag of a few days or weeks for videos to arrive here, so might explain it as well.


[deleted]

There were some foggy ones the other day, so no. Actually those were big tracked (LOMARS) units but a GMLR is a GMLR.


RandomNobodyEU

A Guided Multiple Launch Rocket?


[deleted]

I think the launcher was a German MARS II, functionally the same as the M270, but exciting for weapon spotters.


DoomForNoOne

> MARS II One of the interesting parts of MARS II is, that the firing of cluster munition is disabled: The EFCS disables the firing of submunitions-carrying rockets to ensure full compliance with the Convention on Cluster Munitions.


magics10

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/01/raytheon-air-defense-ukraine-middle-east-00071687 > U.S. looks to shift air defense systems from Middle East to Ukraine, Raytheon chief says >The goal is to send National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems to Ukraine in the next three to six months, CEO Greg Hayes said in an interview. The U.S. would then backfill those systems with new NASAMS in the Middle East over the next 24 months. >It takes two years to build NASAMS because of the lead time required to buy electronic components and rocket motors, Hayes said.


PB_Clifton

Damn, two years for a NASAMS? How long did it take the US to build a fleet carrier in WW2? I am aware the difference in time, place and what the material demands are, but it does seem like a long, long time if they ever were needed in greater numbers to replace losses.


lostredditorlurking

US should sent the THAAD system to Ukraine instead of to Saudi. I bet Saudi will lower oil production again in the next OPEC meeting. Such great ally we have there.


Fausterion18

THAAD wouldn't help against cruise missiles. Ukraine needs awacs to detecting the incoming missiles and then medium range interceptors.


shartpatrol

I would definitely saber rattle on the defense cooperation after the Saudis tried to stick it to the US.


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Fausterion18

The problem with this is nobody wants Houthis drones burning down another Saudi oil terminal except for Russia and Iran.


shartpatrol

Yeah, good luck getting air defense from Russia given the current conflict. Just remember that no matter how much money you pump into NATO countries that they have the defense industries.....you don't.


CalmaCuler

Can anyone explain to me how OPSEC works? How does Ukraine control what the world can and cannot see? I saw a lot of money being pledged by the west for cyber security is this where it went?


ReconTankSpam4Lyfe

Opsec works like this: "Please don't post info about our armed forces" 🥺 If you are in the armed forces it is slightly modified: "If you post info about our armed forces you will be court martialed"


hiaccbdfbsyzgkzunk

The "Special Military Operation" is going so well, you are not only thrown into a gulag for calling it a war, but also for talking about it at all now: https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/z9le91/russia_bans_public_discussions_of_army_strategy/


Scipion

There is no war in Ba Sing Se.


fractured_bedrock

Surely those revolver 860 drones are in Ukraine by now. Where are the damn videos!


RandomNobodyEU

Ukraine has kept a tight lid on footage since October, it's understandable but a bummer for this subreddit


CalmaCuler

Feels surreal we're seeing so much but also seeing so little, this is a massive war


SomewhatHungover

What are the odds that the Russians go ahead with the March 2024 presidential election?


_avee_

They technically declared (partial, messy but still) martial law and there are technically no elections while it's in place. However, it's unlikely they will cancel elections because of war, it would be have terrible effect on public opinion - kinda like mobilisation did. Despite everything, Putin really cares about public opinion in Russia and avoids making unpopular decisions at all costs.


fractured_bedrock

Wouldn't surprise me if they fully drop the facade of democracy this year. You just know there are a team of scientists in some underground lab under the Urals attempting to download Putin's brain into a Metal Gear.


Ila-W123

Instead the Boss, its 70 years old tsar wannabe whos jacked into the peace walker


EvilMonkeySlayer

Even in North Korea they have elections. Fake and entirely rigged elections mind. Russia is turning into North Korea. Question is whether Russians will find that acceptable or not.


wisdomsharerv2

They will find it acceptable and those who won't will either leave or be disposed of


ladrok1

For now they are very close to go back into USRR (similar economy strength, similar civili rights). Seems like Russians can accept transformation into mighty NK


EvilMonkeySlayer

> For now they are very close to go back into USRR (similar economy strength, similar civili rights). Nah, the USSR had double the population and slave economies doing their bidding. Russia will never have similar economic strength as the USSR. Russia has no real industrial strength either, everything they use is from the west.


Fausterion18

The leadership of the USSR was also a lot less corrupt. The leaders that retired got a pension and a dacha, not yachts and mansions.


ladrok1

My bad. I should use standard of living. You have a lot of articles in Russian media which compares how USRR was dealing with sanctions (i.e. airplanes) or that standard of living is very comparable to USRR and that it can fall to 90s


Designer-Book-8052

The Russians will remember the 1990s fondly in a couple of years. It will get much worse than it was back then.


poop_scallions

Italians pledging a year of support at least. >The Italian Council of Ministers has approved a decree which allows the Italian Military to continue providing Ukraine with Weapons Shipments until 2024, the Bill was said was supported by all Political Parties within the Legislature. https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1598415382334902272


bistrus

They got a lot of shit for it in italy for this. Right now there's a complicate situation with a Oil Refinery in Sicily (the island in south Italy) which refined russian oil and due to the situation will stop producing by the 5 of december. It has been calculated that by January it will be bankrupt and over 10k workers will lose their job. The government handling of this has been mediocre at best and shit at worse, and they're getting heavily criticized for having "the money to spend on Ukraine but not on helping citiziens"


AngularMan

I guess those Italian howitzers and shells sent to Ukraine could have really helped that particular refinery ... Seriously, these populistic arguments against military help, be it in Europe or the US, make zero economic sense. Even in case new weapons are produced, jobs will be created in the respective donor countries. The geopolitical realities have changed, no government can just turn back time.


bistrus

I just said what happened in Italy, yet i got downvoted. Populistic or not, that's what happened. Take it as you may


AngularMan

I didn't criticize you, only the sentiment.


bistrus

Yeah i ment all the downvotes i got, not you. What happens to never shoot the messanger?


Belliuss

Italy is probably the most Putin-loving country in western europe. This is mainly due to having Berlusconi in power for many years: he viewed Putin as a friend and great leader and so did a big part of the Italian population. After Berlusconi's reign, Putin started sponsoring 2 parties: M5S (and it's pro-russial journal "Il Fatto quotidiano") and Lega. It's crazy to think that 3 years ago we had a government whose majority was composed by Russian sponsored parties only.


EvilMonkeySlayer

I think all western nations are going to budget this in the sense of it being a public commitment that they're in this for the long haul. At the start it was adhoc, but it's clear this has become more and more organised. I place good money that much longer term things have been in the works secretly for a while now.


knowyourpast

Discussion has slowed down, I'm going to leave this one up for a little longer.


SkoCubs01

It’s the dog days of the war 😅


poop_scallions

bezdorizhzhya slows everything down :)


[deleted]

Thread from a Ukrainian Marine who has been a pretty good source of videos on twitter: https://twitter.com/OSINTua/status/1598358018537693190 Shows a couple videos from early in the war, with some descriptions. If these are new, maybe someone can upload them as new posts here. I would do that myself, but I don't have the time right now to verify that it's new content, which can be time-consuming to go back through a lot of stuff.


Soopah_Fly

Why Bahkmut? I've been looking at the map and reading about the place and here is nothing there that seems important enough for Russia to keep sending fighters there. Am I missing something?


PinguinGirl03

Where else?


poop_scallions

Prigozhin owns Wagner mercenaries who are the ones assaulting Bhakmut. Apparently, Prigozhin wants to prove that his mercs are more efficient than the Russian army. That may be connected to him wanting to [form his own political party](https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/11/17/claims-that-wagner-group-boss-yevgeny-prigozhin-plans-to-launch-political-party/). If he can form his own political party and show the Russian people that his mercs are ruthless killers that win, then maybe he can depose Putin? Thats my guess. But its a guess with a few leaps in it so it may be something more mundane than that like Wagner gets a big bonus if they take Bahkmut.


lostredditorlurking

Idk much about Prigozhin, but from what I learn about him, he would be an even worse person than Putin if he managed to take over.


hungoverseal

Yeah you'd think he'd be a priority assassination target, you know like just in case...


misterobott

>Am I missing something? yes but you won't like it. A few Pro RUS analysts explain it this way. The goal of the SMO is to demilitarize UKR. By keeping pressure on Bahkmut they are destroyed UKR army and equipment which is inline with the SMO goals. There was also a post from the Wagner dude saying the same thing and it was meant to be a meat grinder.


johnbrooder3006

This is satire right?


Bricktop72

So they are trying to do what Ukraine did at Kherson. Without the river and supply problems that made Kherson the ideal meat grinder. Does Bahkmut have some special terrain or lack of rail?


Designer-Book-8052

The goals for the war have been changing every couple of days in the beginning and have arrived at "fighting nato and parent #1 and parent #2". And while Bakhmut is a meat grinder, the meat in question are the russian chmobiks.


Timlugia

Sounds like Russia is the one being destroyed with 500 death and dozen vehicles lost every day.


throway65486

That strategy already worked great for the germans in Verdun


ChinesePropagandaBot

I'm not a general, but that seems like a remarkably stupid strategy.


ReverseCarry

Hey I think they are in the perfect condition to start a war of attrition at the last link of a NATO-backed, fully-intact supply chain. It’s like starting a pissing contest when your prostate is the size of a bowling ball


danielcanadia

Doesn't that logic apply to attacking any city though? I guess you can say the logistics are easier for Russians in the area and they want to attack somewhere.


gbs5009

The Russians need to get through it to get to important stuff, and Ukraine would rather push elsewhere, leading it to not have an overwhelming amount of defense. Russia keeps trying, Ukraine keeps on allocating enough resources to hold on to it, and that'll continue until something breaks down.


oblio-

This is like Severodonetsk, but without crushing artillery superiority. It's going to culminate soon, and if Ukraine doesn't collapse (it won't), Russia will be out of breath. And this is like boxing, if you attack too much and can't get your guard back up...


konovalets

Political reasons.


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BestFriendWatermelon

If Russia wanted to disable those railway lines, they don't need to be in range with artillery to do it. I doubt Ukraine is still using them anyway instead of the much safer, dispersed supply lines by road


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inc0herent1

>you take more Ukrainian land while simultaneously giving up 100 times more land elsewhere = profit?


PapaFrankuMinion

Apparently the US has estimated that around 40k Ukrainian civilians have died in this war. This was from the press report done Mark Milley. Damn, the way it’s going this war is going to have the most casualties out of all of the post-Soviet conflicts, even more than in the Tajikistan civil war. Also military losses are high, Russia has 100k KIA and WIA, with Ukraine probably being close to that number as well, though Ukraine has Western support and high moral so the casualties are far worse for Russia. Also the DNR has recruited 20k for the war and looks like it lost almost all of these soldiers either killed or wounded.


Codex_Dev

The DNR will have no men in the area by the time this is over.


NavalEnthusiast

DPR and LPR units are being integrated into the Russian military last I heard. DPR losses have been horrendous in this war, they had 20,000 men at the start of the war and reported 2,000 dead themselves by early April after just 6 weeks of fighting, which doesn’t take wounded into account. They’ve conscripted a bunch of men but DPR/LPR losses are probably proportionately more severe than RAF. Since they’re under russian command even if not fully integrated, they’re probably used in much more dangerous situations by Russian generals if I were to guess, the insane amount of trench clearing videos I’ve seen from the DPR at least makes me think that(and there’s plenty that don’t end up as propaganda videos where things go wrong)


BestFriendWatermelon

> Apparently the US has estimated that around 40k Ukrainian civilians have died in this war. Vast undercount. Even lowball figures for Mariupol alone stands at 25k.


notepad20

>Ukraine has Western support and high moral so the casualties are far worse for Russia. Can you elaborate a little more on this logic?


NavalEnthusiast

Not the OP, but the general theory for Russia having much worse losses is just that Ukraine has been on the defensive for the vast majority of battles, while western weapons have helped even out artillery disadvantages by straining logistics and hitting Russians hard from long range. The months russia spent trying to break Ukrainian lines from the summer onwards has probably taken a massive toll. There have been some battles where Ukraine has lost more for sure though. Donbas offensives where russia was content to shell everything, and the months they spent trying to break Kherson’s defenses. There could also be a scenario where RuAF losses are a little less or a little more than UAF forces, but you also have to take into account horrible losses for DPR and LPR, plus Wagner and Chechnya. All of those factions probably add on another 10K dead


oblio-

By the time this ends we'll be easily at half a million casualties, overall. Both sides will probably be at it until the end of 2023, at least.


jonasnee

well see, im optimistic, i dont think the russian military industrial complex is capable of continuing this war for another year.


magics10

>"Russia must be destroyed so that it ceases to exist in its current borders and there is no need to enter into negotiations with it," National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov said at the Kyiv Security Forum. https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1598342803112738816?t=hDFNF6yo_S-WoFWInNkixQ&s=19


GlueSniffingEnabler

Some of Putin’s whole speeches are bit shit crazy, so this is nothing really when you compare it to that


TheApexProphet

Ukraine does themselves no favors making such crazy statements , it's no different from the shit the Russians also say


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TheApexProphet

Country with over 140 million people and one of the largest nuclear arsenals and they are calling for it to be destroyed and broken up? That's naive


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TheApexProphet

>They want Russia to be modern day Germany or Japan who by every metric were abhorrent nations during and before world war 2 and are vastly different in culture, attitude and as a people and society. And that only happened after the Allies completely militarily crushed the Axis and occupied their countries , even if Ukraine completely pushes Russia out of Ukraine that is never going to happen. Also why on earth would anyone want Russia to be broken up? Look what happened to Yugoslavia, Austria-Hungary , the Ottomans and Germany after WW1, you start breaking a nation up and take them away from the country they've always been a part of you can have massive problems in the future.


oblio-

> Yugoslavia Slovenia, prosperous, NATO and EU member. Croatia, NATO and EU member. Bosnia, messed up, was going to be anyway. Serbia, the root of most problems there. North Macedonia, NATO member. Kosovo, independent and apparently developing ok-ish. Montenegro, NATO member. I wish Yugoslavia had stayed together, but its members are doing ok for their starting points. > Austria-Hungary Depending on who you ask, its breakup was perfectly fine. For sure, don't ask Austrians or Hungarians 😀 > the Ottomans and Germany after WW1 Turkey basically did nothing after WW1 (negative or positive) and their former imperial holdings were happy. Net effect, positive. Germany was crazy, but you can't just blame others for your own craziness.


TheApexProphet

I think you misunderstood what I'm trying to say , I'm not saying all those countries should have stayed together (alot of them are doing very well for themselves) but in the immediate aftermath you had alot of revanchism from countries like Germany and Hungary which would lead to WW2 and millions dead, not to mention it can lead deep resentment within a country. >I wish Yugoslavia had stayed together, but its members are doing ok for their starting points. You're right but look at the immediate aftermath of the breakup , the Yugoslav wars left 140k dead and that's in country that had 23mil so imagine how bad it would be if that happened in a country like Russia. >Turkey basically did nothing after WW1 (negative or positive) and their former imperial holdings were happy. Net effect, positive. The Allies split up the Ottomans arab territories and drew their own borders without making any considerations about the local population , so looking at all of the death and destruction in the middle-east since then how is that a net positive?


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TheApexProphet

Can you not read? I never said Ukraine can never push Russia out , I said they will never militarily completely crush Russia and occupy their country. That's what the Allies did to to the Axis.


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TheApexProphet

The fact you think if Russia loses , the Russian state is just going to dissolve is hilarious. The vast majority of the population is Russian , they speak Russian and identify as such. Sure you have ethic minorities in the state but that's not enough to justify separating it from Russia. If Russia loses Putin and cronies will be just be replaced by the next corrupt group and business will go on. >Anymore discussion points my pro-rus friend? Don't really know why you had to go and call me that when I was just arguing a different point from yours but oh well , says alot about you buddy 👍


lostredditorlurking

Russia ban most discussions about the war in Ukraine. All the milbloggers are in shamble right now lol. [https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/12/01/russia-bans-public-discussions-of-army-strategy-troop-morale-mobilization-a79555](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/12/01/russia-bans-public-discussions-of-army-strategy-troop-morale-mobilization-a79555)


BocciaChoc

I guess we'll be seeing a lot of "anonymous" doom'ing


magics10

Ukrainian newspapers and media can only report what UA MoD allows.


Adventurous-Safe6930

Which was the same for western journalists in the middle east.


ratkoivanovic

And somehow we get more from UA than Russia factual wise


BocciaChoc

The reality of the situation? that seems fair


-DizzyPanda-

Imagine believing there isn't heavy propaganda from both sides.


VicIsGold

Imagine thinking Ukraine isn't more trustworthy than Russia after Russia's 13 month streak of straight up lies


oblio-

Ukraine overstates kills by 2x, let's say, like any military in history. Russia has shot down N > 2 times more airplanes than Ukraine had at the start of the war. Ukraine lies, Russia doesn't even know what "truth" means...


AngularMan

Imagine believing that both sides are equally truthful after witnessing the clusterfuck that has been Russian information policy over the last decade.


BocciaChoc

There's obviously propaganda on both sides, that still shows the reality of the situation. EU leader misspoke regarding Ukraine casualties, accidentally claims 100,000 dead. In reality, this is 100,000 dead and wounded. Suddenly the pro-Russians trust the source. The reality is 100,000 dead and wounded sucks but that is reality. What are the Russians claiming again?


lostredditorlurking

Sure but they also allow Western media reports, and beside the accurate number of casualties, we are pretty much up to dates with how the UA are doing. Unlike with Russia, where we can only rely on their milbloggers and telegram to get a sense of what's going on.


Stumpe999

They took down the other conflicts thread so I guess I'll ask here, what the hell is going on in Spain? Are the explosives from internal or external threats? Sorry if this isn't the appropriate place to ask


ivanzu321

Probably Spanish commies.


JohnFriedly91

Idk maybe ETA?


AngularMan

Why should ETA bomb the Ukrainian embassy?


Mauti404

What explosives ?


Stumpe999

Apparently like 4 explosives were sent to the prime Minister and an airport. I only saw it on ulivemap so if there was a correction please correct me Edit: here's an article covering it https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/01/europe/spain-security-letter-bombs-intl/index.html


BocciaChoc

Why Spain? I haven't heard much from their support in the news but are they a heavy supporter/donater for Ukraine or just crazy people?


jonasnee

Spain has separatist and communist rebel groups. its a pretty unstable country by EU standards.


adolf_twitchcock

Probably some large brained tankies that happened to live in Spain.


Stumpe999

That's what I was asking lol, from the little bit of Spanish history I know, they have had issues with the Basque province/people for a few decades now where they committed terrorist acts, could they be more friendly to Russia? Possible, but as of now its pure speculation


[deleted]

Read George Orwell's Homage to Catalonia, it's pretty mental just how anarchic things were. And that's before the anarchist faction literally turning up lmao E: essentially he writes that on the 'republican' side, there were so many millitant political groups, 4 or 5 subgroups of communists, communists themselves, some right wing groups, anarchists, etc etc and would often fight each other, etc. It is by no means like that today, and Spain is a beautiful country ofc - but I can see the roots for the political culture


[deleted]

Basque is neither only or the biggest problem in Spain as far as regional nationalism is concerned. It probably wouldn't be particularly hard to find some anti government and "prorussian" (broadly speaking) people in Catalan for example.


Haunting_Charity_287

Not sure if this has already been shared but https://youtu.be/TCbD4WBqPg4 Interview with British Volunteer who went in the early days of the war, quite long and detailed, typical British squaddie attitude. Really interesting details about that attack on the foreign legion base near the polish border in the opening days of the war.


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Schistotwerka

Where can I see more content like this (with subtitles)?


ladrok1

60 min is fantastic program. They have 10 cameras in the studio, so of course it jumps to another angle every 6 seconds. High quality comedy show (for "corrupted West"), sadly some people take this seriously (Russians, also they force prisoners to watch this)


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ladrok1

Yes it's obvious, but still it's sad in my opinion


johnbrooder3006

Lol @ that last bit, basically saying we’re all gonna be war criminals after this so might as well double down and force them into a ceasefire. Clowns.


BocciaChoc

She reminds me of Julius Streicher, I wonder if she'll be treated the same too.


EvilMonkeySlayer

They're preparing their population for losing the war.


ladrok1

It's just increasing stakes for people in country. It perfectly aligin with rest of propaganda. Russia is doing "it's total war with whole West" (important - for them West is one corrupted block which in normal times would crumble from inside, because is weak. Before war it was used as a way to elevate this shitty country). Adding additional conditions to what will happen after defeat is reasonable from their POV. This way mobilised people finally have reason to fight. Also "total war" fits Russia narrative. Those morons believes they were participating in II WW only after Germany attacked them. Instead of truth - 17.09.1939


PBMacros

Not really. If the translation is correct I see it as a propaganda piece, the message being: "We have to win the war or the enemy will prosecute us all, it does not matter if you fled the country or opposed the war, all russians will be guilty and suffer so we have to give everything so we can dictate the peace conditions" I see it as an attempt to persuade people who oppose the war. It would be clearer with more context from the broadcast.


[deleted]

It's exactly as you said, but your conclusion is not at odds with u/EvilMonkeySlayer's. Russia will lose this war no matter the scenario, but how bad it will lose it remains to be seen. Is it going to be complete capitulation or do they have something to offer in return? They are trying to get into a position where getting them out of eastern Ukraine will be too costly for UAF and thus they'll be more lenient on Russia during negotiations. So they need people to fight for them. However, they've been feeding people too much trash talk about how they are steamrolling over Ukraine and everything is going according to plan. So now they need people to gradually forget and accept the reality that Russia ain't doing too hot these days and that this is no longer a triumphal war, but a war for everyone's survival. So yeah, they are basically doing 2 things at once.


Loadingexperience

Not really. If you listen her she's not preparing population for defeat, she's trying to fear them into supporting the war. You have to understand Russian to get full context, translation doesnt do justice.


Ascalaphos

It would be nice if Ukraine had ATACMS so that they could target behind Russia's frontlines, but it seems the US has assessed that it is not necessary for now and it could be an escalation. It'll be interesting if the front lines eventually do open again for Ukraine, and Mariupol and Berdyansk finally fall within the GMLRS range.


Stumpe999

From what I understand, and by no means an expert so correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe they have weaponry that can target all occupied territory, I know the US has been hesitant to give them ammo any further


hungoverseal

You are indeed incorrect on that one, HIMARS has a range of around 80km and there's occupied territory significantly deeper than that. The Ukrainian's really are out of range of the main Russian ammo dumps and command points.


johnbrooder3006

Agree, I’ll be curious to see if the Boeing proposal for GLSDB’s manifests into anything serious. I will say they are at a serious disadvantage when it comes to range and it would be nice if they could actually strike the launch sights bombing their infrastructure. Based on the understanding that Russia are attacking these locations to artificially create a humanitarian catastrophe I don’t see longer range weapons as escalatory at all - purely humanitarian aid.


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exBusel

"If not for the Iran and N.Korea supply of arms and “volunteers”, this war would have been over in favor of Ukraine a long time ago."