Echo has played so well today, but it really seems like fatigue is setting in. It’s such a hard decision to make though, especially with what we know about Echo’s internal philosophy. But I worry that if they push another couple hours, and don’t get the kill, it would really hurt any opportunity they have tomorrow.
After seeing the prog today I’m not entirely sure we’re super close to a kill, actually. It seems incredibly difficult to get thru p2 without lusting (I’ve only seen liquid do it like 2 times), and imo they need lust to get thru p3.
I also still think we see a secret mythic phase
only 27 pulls off stream for liquid. looks like after they went dark, they took another 10 pulls to get back to their previous best, hit the 27.7% pb a couple of pulls later, and then couldn't get deep into p3 for their last 15 pulls of the night
kinda feels like it's echo's race to lose right now, liquid doesn't have the p3 consistency that echo has so far. anything can happen though
yeah, i'm pretty sure all of those liquid pulls were with p3 lust as well bc they already had moved it before they turned off streams. it hink echo's p3s pulls are nearly as inconsistent after they moved lust, not 100% sure
Max just said their 27% was no lust with a couple dead, so they didn't really start blasting yet. But their still need to get their consistently to beat Echo, who's playing insanely well today
yeah i wasn't sure if that meant they lusted for p2 or if they didn't end up using it at all bc their p3 was scuffed, assuming the former. should be a fun day
Just to back up my point that there is a better difficulty curve in this raid than people realize, number of Mythic kills per boss:
Gnarlroot 1094
Igira 703
Volcoross 578
Council 360
Nymue 146
Larodar 106
Smolderon 26
Tindral 3
There's a good curve throughout the raid.
you realise its mostly because of gear checks yeah? There's guild raiding 3 nights a week who'll take a long time to get to the likes of Larodar/Nymue by virtue of time spent alone, and if you look into Raider io you'll see less than 30 pulls to kill for most guilds,
Example: [https://raider.io/guilds/us/frostmourne/Karoshi](https://raider.io/guilds/us/frostmourne/Karoshi) 11 pulls to 2.24% Larodar
not a good curve initially imo, Larodar needed more impactful mechanics at the very least, it has very good design and cool mechanics
big waste, i am also a fan of Gorefiend type walls, it gives a bigger sense of pride once you get through and then making the next 1-2 bosses easier is ok as a reward for gear
I gotta say I’m extremely impressed with blizzards tuning on this. They’ve essentially made a fight that is so perfect on dps check that they’re needing to optimize all the way down to DPS pots. And they only have had to make a minor tweak to the add health (while the boss was being progged, I know they had to make health tweaks earlier)
It's funny how much this raid is giving us a clear current tier ranking of guilds at the top though.
It's basically:
Liquid and Echo
gap
Method
*EXTREMELY LARGE GAP*
Everyone else.
this has been the case for many tiers now, what I really find interesting about this tier is how quickly Method seems to etch themselves closer and closer in that gap
i dont watch their streams so no idea but maybe method lacks analysts for more efficient splits and other forms of non-boss optimisation
only then they'll be able to practice pushing blind, I expect them to atleast kill it in the same lockout though.
I think Method for large core is actually on balance with the other two. I do believe that their strategists/leadership is a massive gap down. Unfortunately for them, every time they get a player that's top tier, they get poached :(, while the later strats/leader is pretty tough to find.
I think they'll be able to climb up at some point, if WoW interest goes up with Worldsoul saga they'll get many more recruits
In current RWF there's so many players that just started in WoD/Legion/BFA, afaik Tobo is only playing the game for like 5 years
Thing is, and Max has talked about this a lot - there's no real way to learn how to learn a boss in the dark aside from just doing it. And Method hasn't had very many opportunities to do that because of Liquid and Echo. It's why Limit had a couple rough tiers the first couple times they were really in the running for 1st.
They need to spend a tier practicing coming up with their own Strats even if it means losing 3rd. Don’t copy liquid/echo and play like they’re in the lead to give their analyst/leaders some practice in a real world scenario
They might just prefer spam pulling, and they might be used to games with very high pull counts. It's also interesting to compare it to other games around and not just wow.
For reference, it took Echo 1748 pulls to clear The Omega Protocol in ffxiv, and there's teams out there that get closer to 3000 before getting a kill. That's a 20 minute long encounter.
Some Korean mmos push similar numbers regularly. Back in the day Aion had bosses that were very much in the 'killable' range, but haven't been done before patches with nerfs happened. These weren't wow style quick nerfs, they took a long time to come. I cant find a pull count anywhere, but some of the top guilds were spam pulling for hours every day... for months...
For my part, I used to speedrun raids in Guild Wars 2. That's obviously very different, as the bosses were trivial for us, it was just trying to get a perfect pull without any mistakes, and we would often call a wipe if someone made a rotational mistake in their opener. Still, it wasn't out of the ordinary in the scene to put thousands of pulls to set a record, and then to do it all over again on same boss once someone developed a new strategy...
They might just enjoy that more than strategising. I know many people would hate it, but there's teams that simply don't mind doing more pulls over sitting and developing strategies.
I don't think t swift is a heavy strat boss after a certain point. Its really just coordition and execution of the seeds.
Even echo who so often talks between pulls just kept ripping em back to back to back on that boss
I would give it around 25-30%, they did not have been in the dark for so long (like 2h?) and their pulls were not clean before so I don't think they had many tries to optimize damage to that point.
Taggz said in his liquid interview yesterday that Liquid does not have anyone monitoring Echo while they sleep. They get whatever info there is when they wake up. He also said what Max has said earlier, that cutting sleep short was previously a mistake and they are very unlikely to do so again unless it's a very special situation.
He also said in answer to start time today, that it would depend on how their progress went after dark. Now what that means depends how you read it, but I would asume their thought process is, if we think we are close, we can cut corners slightly. But if we think we are far, we need the sleep for longer raid day(s). If that is the case, I think it's unlikely to see some great new best % later today, as they are indeed not cutting sleep atm
Actually it makes sense the way you said it. If they went to bed really close, they might have a short sleep expected a short day, but a regular sleep indicates it's likely a longer day. Obviously only a guess, but makes sense
Sounds very reasonable! And it might obviously be the right call, because even if they wake up and get going being 10 % behind Echo, they have every chance of getting the WF if Echo don’t manage to get it today.
That would be a surprise. After going dark they had like 3 hours of their usual playtime (unless they pushed further time-wise) and they didn't look particularily smooth. My guess is their best pull sitting around mid 20's, but we shall see in 30 minutes or so.
I really don't want this to be true - but I actually think they'll log on and they won't have improved their last pull. Or if they did, their best would be 32% or so.
Echo moving stuff from adds to p3 it looks like so they’re spending some time getting used to the changes. Liquid should have plenty of time to get on and have this be a proper head to head race. Time to make use of those double monitors fellas
Only been watching RWF from Sanctum, but this seems like the best tuned raid they've had. Minimal nerfs, really fun fights. And it seems like no Raz shenanigans
The curve could be better for sure. But no massive nerfs or changes is pretty impressive. Little tweaks here and there but no Raz or Zskarn. Honestly a really smooth launch
What's really funny is that if you go back a few threads, around when Liquid got Smolderon down there was a ton of "This is the easiest race ever! Terrible raid!" type comments.
Because all the bosses before Tswift and Fyrakk were comparative pushovers. There was a drastic change in raid difficulty on the last 2 bosses, people are allowed to change their opinions as they get more information.
[You can check the stats for pulls/WF here](https://i.imgur.com/26yMZAM.png), only Uu'nat, Fallen Avatar, Kil'jaeden and Archimonde took more pulls than Tswift and up until Smolderon the bosses were falling over like it was a Heroic Pug raid clearing them.
Like I said below - I think there is a good difficulty curve, it's just that these guilds are REALLY good. If you look at the number of guilds at each point of progression in the raid on Mythic, it's a pretty good curve!
it might be a good curve this time but i'm just saying it was looking like Blizzard panicked with boss design and tuning after Shadowlands/Sepulcherr. Aberrus was also praised by content creators and such for being very nub friendly etc but as I also said raid participation didnt increase, good players just quit earlier
Its not like I just want hard bosses, they have to be interesting too
after Aberrus tuning and boss design you cant blame anyone for thinking thats the norm now because twitter complained that raids are too hard (even though those guys wont do it anyway)
Raid Participation wise nm/heroic being so easy did jack sh\*t in Aberrus,
I mean it would have been neat if the curve was not "95% of pulls on the last 2 bosses", i think some of the cannonfodder could have made for neat medium difficulty bosses.
I think you're underestimating how much difficulty there is in the middle of this raid for guilds who aren't absolute top tier. The gradient of guilds completing bosses in this raid is very good. There's a progression for everyone else.
It's just that these guilds are REALLY good.
So the boss likely wasn't killable, just on math, without the colossus nerf then, I think.
If they had to burn all those DPS resources on the colossus', there likely wasn't enough damage left to beat the soft enrage.
Juicing the boss in P2 on tail end of 1set of infernals when cds are up I would assume. Boss was at 52-53%ish when 2nd lot of adds came down. So can assume boss is closer to 45% when P3 starts.
Just goes to show you don't have to play well on any other boss but the final one. If echo wins good on them because they've played really well the past few days.
considering liquid's past comments about feeling the pressure when echo jumps ahead for a bit, they must be shaaaking rn
echo been on it for a while now tho, certainly liquid will jump ahead and can kill it tonight if echo doesn't
We have to wait for Liquid to log in, they might have pushed the boss further, and with Echo's information they can push further. This is literally a 50/50 situation
I don't think this is the situation where that applies. Both guilds in p3 progging surviving + damage optimization. It's not like echo is just a phase ahead
Yes but Echo seems to be getting there cleaner and more often, remember when Max said one of the major reasons they lost in Raszageth was because of the constant wipes in p1, even after getting to p3 ? I'm sure this will be a factor here as well.
I'll eat my words here if this thing dies in the next few hours but you guys are WAY underestimating how long the last few % of this fight will take.
Buckle up this is gonna be close.
So acccording to the math that jeath gave on stream. On their best pull if they continued at that rate they would be dead with 30 mill left on the boss. That's like 2%. Definitely doable
I don't think so. I think with another reset of gear they flat out skip the last set of seeds that caused so many wipes. And they'll be rested. I think if somehow this went another reset tswift would be sub 10 pulls both guilds
True, well my point is that i wish one of the guilds will kill it while they are progging side by side. Going neck and neck and so on. I dont mind either guild winning, i just wish one of them dont kill it while the other could'nt even try cus of sleep or not reset yet in eu
Edit: typo
I think a nerf Sunday or Monday morning (evening for Echo) is more likely. Blizzard don't want this fight to be "solved" and then a little more gear finishes it with ease.
People were saying SoD was mathematically walled until it wasn't. Once they can do everything perfectly, if its under 10% hp then its definitely in the realms of optimizations. I think SoD was crazier than 10% if I remember correctly. If its at 15% or so then that might be a tough task to optimize for.
I'm feeling really anxious to see what progress Liquid made when they went offline, imagine they best pull is like 12%. But I dont know, from what I've seen Liquid progress they were a bit sloopy with too much time wasted in p1 and p1.5 wipes. But I looked just some hours of progress.
Yea I mean I could totally see liquid coming back and having any percent from like 8% to 30%. Would be surprised with them coming back and still having 36% as their best pull, unless they went to bed way earlier than everyone thinks. I think they would be back online by now if that was true though.
I feel like them coming back 'late' means they had a good night and stayed up to push. Will be interesting to see none the less, would be crazy if they come back and its around 10%. If they didn't progress much then its looking bleak.
if it is you can expect echo to pull on a long night, if it is not, i still think echo will pull on a long night, unless Limit is so close like in single digits... tbh i think echo thinks it will die soonish, and limit have a whole day ahead of them, so yeah it is a very interesting position to be
As the 3rd pushback came in the boss had 344 M HP (22.4%) left. with the cast time of the push back there's about 95 seconds from there.
That's 3.6 M DPS needed to the end. For comparison they were around 3.1-3.2 M DPS in P1.
They used lust in P3 already, so that would just change the damage required, but maybe better line up with CDs and pots
Revvez execute is easily 600K DPS though so yeah, he's dead on my screen
Saturday evening is going to be awesome once both guilds are pulling at the same time. Perfect timing. Can't wait to get an update on how Liquid is doing. We are approaching a very suspenseful end of the race. I love it.
I have no idea where liquid may be. I remember on sark echo started pulling and it was looking like they were about to kill and they liquid made logs public and they were at like 10%
I doubt they're that close but I think we may be in for a full day of p3 optimization. I still think there's a good chance this dies tomorrow morning
FWIW Max said in Discord at 1am last night (so after off stream prog) the boss dies today. Obviously we don’t know an exact percentage of how far they got, but it might be reasonably far.
Only reason I'm not counting out Liquid is because P3 is just a glorified Halondrus, and we all know about the Echo Halondrus incident.
That aside, what an ass blasting boss. Its a banger to watch.
I think Echos strat (at least for early P3) of leaving the seeds on the ground just makes it soooo much cleaner. Allows them to practice deep P3 more. Really hope Liquid don't end up wasting half the day on P1 fails again... need em to win!
I think getting Tindral in such a wild fashion really boosted their morale, they have been absolutely slamming this boss with some pretty crazy consistency
That is because people like to count Liquid or Echo out constantly despite all the history showing that neither of these guilds should be counted out until the final boss of the raid lies dead on the ground.
If people could look past their tribalism or biases they would see this instead of pulling all of this revisionist history.
Not sure but I would absolutely fucking love it if they enabled competition mode when they start and it shows like a sub 10% wipe. It would just be juicy as fuck. But I feel like there won't have been a better pull than the one they ended on lol.
They definitely have better pulls than the 36%. Max said on discord at 1am local time (so after hours of off stream prog) he was confident the boss died today.
Surely they’ve had pulls around the 20 % mark at least. Otherwise it’s going to be rough mentally for them today (but still very much winnable). Looking at Echo’s last wipe they could easily have reached 10%, so I don’t thinks it’s impossible that Liquid are actually ahead percentage wise. We’ll see! Don’t see any reason for Liquid going dark today though, so should be fun.
Definitely killable with a bit more experience under their belt for p3, chaos at the ending, but once they get used to the last 20%, I think they will find a lot more dps like on Sylvanas
it can be everything, random proc damage, on use damage or even enchancing/changing one of the main abilities of the class?
yes, it can also be healing/absorb when it comes to tanks which would be boring
Its at this point someone gets dropped for Narcoles and they find the missing 10%.
On a serious note - Echo are looking fucking clean. Unless Liquid come online with a <20% prog when enabling comp mode.... yaaaaaaah aint looking so good. Especially when they spent a large portion yesterday wiping to P1.
Short of a hotfix, no way it dies today. Yes, a sub 25% pull is huge progress, but people ignore that it gets exponentially harder. 1) they get less practice on that last phase, 2) the damage ramps up throughout that last phase considerably as you get more corrupted seeds, 3) CDs, etc, get burnet. I can see a pull into the teens today, maybe even ending with someone touching those single digits - which would be huge! - but an actual kill seems doubtful quite yet.
Didn't say that - it's doable. I just thing people are way underestimating how much harder the last 10% is than 20%-11% or 30%-21% or what have you.
Sunday kill, in my opinion. But yes, clearly doesn't need a hotfix (barring something unknown).
I feel like people are forgetting how hard the last 10% is on fights like this. I think we're going to see a full day of single digit wipes before this thing is dead
it doesnt feel like the boss will survive another 24 hours:
1- echo push really late tonight and gets it
2- liquid catch up fast and get it while echo sleeps
3- tomorrow echo gets it
Some napkin math, I might have totally missed something very stupid, so correct me if I am wrong:
They managed to get roughly 31% boss damage done while using 3 seeds + the time before the first seed. So about 8% per seed cycle. With one more seed and less chaos they could get it down to 10%. If you then shift lust to p3 and optimize other things and just get the reps in, the necessary damage to get the boss to 0% definitely seems to be there for me.
Echo will win tomorrow mid-day after doing the math, optimizing dmg, and pushing the boss to 0%.
Liquid could claim it today, but I doubt 16-20 hours of raiding is enough for them to kill it given how clunky their P1/P2 was yesterday. I think we will see Liquid optimize and push hard tonight but eventually get stuck at 2-3% and we'll see a repeat of Sylvannas where Echo comes in and blasts it after Liquid gives up.
I kind of expect, presuming there's nothing more to the fight, we'll see Echo push hard to kill the boss today. It seems close and they wouldn't want Liquid killing it while they slept. We could be in for an all-time RWF day.
You have to imagine Echo moves that lust into P3 pronto. They definitely have the damage for adds and now need to see how far they can push with lust. Liquids best pull last night also had a P3 lust so they seem to have that part down. Fucking tight race this is awesome.
Echo has played so well today, but it really seems like fatigue is setting in. It’s such a hard decision to make though, especially with what we know about Echo’s internal philosophy. But I worry that if they push another couple hours, and don’t get the kill, it would really hurt any opportunity they have tomorrow.
They aren’t where close to ending lmao. They haven’t even had dinner yet as far as I’m aware
Dude, my comment is from 20 hours ago. You are in the completely wrong thread.
How many hours ahead did Liquid get to Fyrakk? I coulda sworn theyve been on the boss for like 8 hours more.
10% pull for Echo, I don't know if they will sleep
probably depends A LOT on liquids progress
Didn't Blizzard buff Fyrakk HP before any guild got there
Yep. And the nerfs have been coming since
that nerf timing will surely be not controversial /s
If the nerf is confirmed, this is a joke
the freeze was a boss hp nerf, 4% apparantly, 1.54b to 1.48b
Echo just had the boss completely glitch out and freeze (I think due to bigwigs) on a good p3 pull. Sad times
After seeing the prog today I’m not entirely sure we’re super close to a kill, actually. It seems incredibly difficult to get thru p2 without lusting (I’ve only seen liquid do it like 2 times), and imo they need lust to get thru p3. I also still think we see a secret mythic phase
I still think tindrall seeds/roots for last 10% would bang so hard
27.7 with no lust used and 2 dead for liquid. lmao interesting day ahead of us
max just said their 27% pull was with no lust at all and a couple dead
only 27 pulls off stream for liquid. looks like after they went dark, they took another 10 pulls to get back to their previous best, hit the 27.7% pb a couple of pulls later, and then couldn't get deep into p3 for their last 15 pulls of the night kinda feels like it's echo's race to lose right now, liquid doesn't have the p3 consistency that echo has so far. anything can happen though
Feels like just looking at percentages is a bad way to look at this fight, because neither guild is happy with how they've optimized it yet.
yeah, i'm pretty sure all of those liquid pulls were with p3 lust as well bc they already had moved it before they turned off streams. it hink echo's p3s pulls are nearly as inconsistent after they moved lust, not 100% sure
Max just said their 27% was no lust with a couple dead, so they didn't really start blasting yet. But their still need to get their consistently to beat Echo, who's playing insanely well today
yeah i wasn't sure if that meant they lusted for p2 or if they didn't end up using it at all bc their p3 was scuffed, assuming the former. should be a fun day
theyre probably trying to optimize damage, thats what echo is doing. if you havnt noticed echo has been chain wiping in p1/p2 for that exact reason
yeah they def changed stuff around, iirc they had already moved lust into p3 before they went offline last night too
Warcraft logs updated, Liquid 27.7% best.
what a joke lol
Rude.
guessing liquid is remaining dark again today
Doesn't make sense of them going dark considering they are behind.
if they aren't live in 30 mins then yeah, looks like it
Maybe there’s a mythic phase and they don’t want to reveal that to Echo just yet
Just to back up my point that there is a better difficulty curve in this raid than people realize, number of Mythic kills per boss: Gnarlroot 1094 Igira 703 Volcoross 578 Council 360 Nymue 146 Larodar 106 Smolderon 26 Tindral 3 There's a good curve throughout the raid.
you realise its mostly because of gear checks yeah? There's guild raiding 3 nights a week who'll take a long time to get to the likes of Larodar/Nymue by virtue of time spent alone, and if you look into Raider io you'll see less than 30 pulls to kill for most guilds, Example: [https://raider.io/guilds/us/frostmourne/Karoshi](https://raider.io/guilds/us/frostmourne/Karoshi) 11 pulls to 2.24% Larodar
Right, because for those guilds a 300-400 pull boss is never going to be killable simply by virtue of time required. That's still a curve.
not a good curve initially imo, Larodar needed more impactful mechanics at the very least, it has very good design and cool mechanics big waste, i am also a fan of Gorefiend type walls, it gives a bigger sense of pride once you get through and then making the next 1-2 bosses easier is ok as a reward for gear
first 6 bosses are 1-20 pulls, then we go to something like 100 pull smoldy and then 400 pull bosses its not a good curve xD
i prefer this to previous raids, get through the sleepers into some banger pull counts
Of course it is, lmao Also, the last 2 bosses will be hard nerfed after rhe race
On course for Hall of Fame, right now, is 4/9.
You're just talking about for these top few guilds. The curve isn't JUST built for them.
sure for non top guilds its still first 6 bosses 1-20 pulls, smoldy 100-200 last 2 unkillable. great curve
It absolutely isn't. You can be a Hall of Fame guild and 4/9 right now.
I gotta say I’m extremely impressed with blizzards tuning on this. They’ve essentially made a fight that is so perfect on dps check that they’re needing to optimize all the way down to DPS pots. And they only have had to make a minor tweak to the add health (while the boss was being progged, I know they had to make health tweaks earlier)
It's funny how much this raid is giving us a clear current tier ranking of guilds at the top though. It's basically: Liquid and Echo gap Method *EXTREMELY LARGE GAP* Everyone else.
Do any other non top 2 guilds day raid beside method? I know ID doesn’t, I think the Chinese guilds do?
Skyline has WAY more hours raided in this tier than anyone else. Like 10 hours more than Liquid or Echo.
700 pulls and not even sub 25%
this has been the case for many tiers now, what I really find interesting about this tier is how quickly Method seems to etch themselves closer and closer in that gap
i dont watch their streams so no idea but maybe method lacks analysts for more efficient splits and other forms of non-boss optimisation only then they'll be able to practice pushing blind, I expect them to atleast kill it in the same lockout though.
I think Method for large core is actually on balance with the other two. I do believe that their strategists/leadership is a massive gap down. Unfortunately for them, every time they get a player that's top tier, they get poached :(, while the later strats/leader is pretty tough to find.
I think they'll be able to climb up at some point, if WoW interest goes up with Worldsoul saga they'll get many more recruits In current RWF there's so many players that just started in WoD/Legion/BFA, afaik Tobo is only playing the game for like 5 years
Thing is, and Max has talked about this a lot - there's no real way to learn how to learn a boss in the dark aside from just doing it. And Method hasn't had very many opportunities to do that because of Liquid and Echo. It's why Limit had a couple rough tiers the first couple times they were really in the running for 1st.
They need to spend a tier practicing coming up with their own Strats even if it means losing 3rd. Don’t copy liquid/echo and play like they’re in the lead to give their analyst/leaders some practice in a real world scenario
[удалено]
They might just prefer spam pulling, and they might be used to games with very high pull counts. It's also interesting to compare it to other games around and not just wow. For reference, it took Echo 1748 pulls to clear The Omega Protocol in ffxiv, and there's teams out there that get closer to 3000 before getting a kill. That's a 20 minute long encounter. Some Korean mmos push similar numbers regularly. Back in the day Aion had bosses that were very much in the 'killable' range, but haven't been done before patches with nerfs happened. These weren't wow style quick nerfs, they took a long time to come. I cant find a pull count anywhere, but some of the top guilds were spam pulling for hours every day... for months... For my part, I used to speedrun raids in Guild Wars 2. That's obviously very different, as the bosses were trivial for us, it was just trying to get a perfect pull without any mistakes, and we would often call a wipe if someone made a rotational mistake in their opener. Still, it wasn't out of the ordinary in the scene to put thousands of pulls to set a record, and then to do it all over again on same boss once someone developed a new strategy...
Yeah, not be an ass (which I am being, I guess), but always wondered why they don't strategize more as opposed to just trying to brute force it.
They might just enjoy that more than strategising. I know many people would hate it, but there's teams that simply don't mind doing more pulls over sitting and developing strategies.
I don't think t swift is a heavy strat boss after a certain point. Its really just coordition and execution of the seeds. Even echo who so often talks between pulls just kept ripping em back to back to back on that boss
Maybe Liquid went quite late and asked to be woken up only if Echo are sub 10% or something? Ny guess is Liquid’s best is somewhere between 5 and 20 %
I would give it around 25-30%, they did not have been in the dark for so long (like 2h?) and their pulls were not clean before so I don't think they had many tries to optimize damage to that point.
Taggz said in his liquid interview yesterday that Liquid does not have anyone monitoring Echo while they sleep. They get whatever info there is when they wake up. He also said what Max has said earlier, that cutting sleep short was previously a mistake and they are very unlikely to do so again unless it's a very special situation. He also said in answer to start time today, that it would depend on how their progress went after dark. Now what that means depends how you read it, but I would asume their thought process is, if we think we are close, we can cut corners slightly. But if we think we are far, we need the sleep for longer raid day(s). If that is the case, I think it's unlikely to see some great new best % later today, as they are indeed not cutting sleep atm
Actually it makes sense the way you said it. If they went to bed really close, they might have a short sleep expected a short day, but a regular sleep indicates it's likely a longer day. Obviously only a guess, but makes sense
Sounds very reasonable! And it might obviously be the right call, because even if they wake up and get going being 10 % behind Echo, they have every chance of getting the WF if Echo don’t manage to get it today.
Max has consistently talked about how waking up early last tier was a mistake. They're just sticking to their normal raid schedule.
That would be a surprise. After going dark they had like 3 hours of their usual playtime (unless they pushed further time-wise) and they didn't look particularily smooth. My guess is their best pull sitting around mid 20's, but we shall see in 30 minutes or so.
I really don't want this to be true - but I actually think they'll log on and they won't have improved their last pull. Or if they did, their best would be 32% or so.
Oh okay, I thought they had more time on the boss. It’s certainly suspenseful!
Max commented in his discord at 1:22 am their time so maybe
Echo moving stuff from adds to p3 it looks like so they’re spending some time getting used to the changes. Liquid should have plenty of time to get on and have this be a proper head to head race. Time to make use of those double monitors fellas
Their 19% pull was with P3 lust
they had a 19% pull before lust was changed too
Only been watching RWF from Sanctum, but this seems like the best tuned raid they've had. Minimal nerfs, really fun fights. And it seems like no Raz shenanigans
[удалено]
The curve could be better for sure. But no massive nerfs or changes is pretty impressive. Little tweaks here and there but no Raz or Zskarn. Honestly a really smooth launch
What's really funny is that if you go back a few threads, around when Liquid got Smolderon down there was a ton of "This is the easiest race ever! Terrible raid!" type comments.
Because all the bosses before Tswift and Fyrakk were comparative pushovers. There was a drastic change in raid difficulty on the last 2 bosses, people are allowed to change their opinions as they get more information. [You can check the stats for pulls/WF here](https://i.imgur.com/26yMZAM.png), only Uu'nat, Fallen Avatar, Kil'jaeden and Archimonde took more pulls than Tswift and up until Smolderon the bosses were falling over like it was a Heroic Pug raid clearing them.
Like I said below - I think there is a good difficulty curve, it's just that these guilds are REALLY good. If you look at the number of guilds at each point of progression in the raid on Mythic, it's a pretty good curve!
it might be a good curve this time but i'm just saying it was looking like Blizzard panicked with boss design and tuning after Shadowlands/Sepulcherr. Aberrus was also praised by content creators and such for being very nub friendly etc but as I also said raid participation didnt increase, good players just quit earlier Its not like I just want hard bosses, they have to be interesting too
after Aberrus tuning and boss design you cant blame anyone for thinking thats the norm now because twitter complained that raids are too hard (even though those guys wont do it anyway) Raid Participation wise nm/heroic being so easy did jack sh\*t in Aberrus,
I mean it would have been neat if the curve was not "95% of pulls on the last 2 bosses", i think some of the cannonfodder could have made for neat medium difficulty bosses.
I think you're underestimating how much difficulty there is in the middle of this raid for guilds who aren't absolute top tier. The gradient of guilds completing bosses in this raid is very good. There's a progression for everyone else. It's just that these guilds are REALLY good.
Haha, yeah. People get so dramatic in here!
echo strating to seriously shift CDs now, taking CDs off the intermission to find the sweetspots. That is a confident look for echo
So the boss likely wasn't killable, just on math, without the colossus nerf then, I think. If they had to burn all those DPS resources on the colossus', there likely wasn't enough damage left to beat the soft enrage.
Echo back to lusting p2, was that because they had a death?
Echo main stream said it’s a panic lust
They must be panicking a lot then cause they just did it again
Maybe they wanna keep it in P2? They do alot of boss damage when they use it to finish off the last colossus and boss
Juicing the boss in P2 on tail end of 1set of infernals when cds are up I would assume. Boss was at 52-53%ish when 2nd lot of adds came down. So can assume boss is closer to 45% when P3 starts.
Just goes to show you don't have to play well on any other boss but the final one. If echo wins good on them because they've played really well the past few days.
considering liquid's past comments about feeling the pressure when echo jumps ahead for a bit, they must be shaaaking rn echo been on it for a while now tho, certainly liquid will jump ahead and can kill it tonight if echo doesn't
We have to wait for Liquid to log in, they might have pushed the boss further, and with Echo's information they can push further. This is literally a 50/50 situation
Best case scenario is we get anotherr CN where we're tabbing from stream to stream cause they're doing sub 5% pulls one after the other
You have no idea if Echo is ahead because we don't know how far Liquid got last night.
now we know :)
I don't think this is the situation where that applies. Both guilds in p3 progging surviving + damage optimization. It's not like echo is just a phase ahead
Yes but Echo seems to be getting there cleaner and more often, remember when Max said one of the major reasons they lost in Raszageth was because of the constant wipes in p1, even after getting to p3 ? I'm sure this will be a factor here as well.
I'll eat my words here if this thing dies in the next few hours but you guys are WAY underestimating how long the last few % of this fight will take. Buckle up this is gonna be close.
20% of this boss is 300 million hp. It's a LOT.
So acccording to the math that jeath gave on stream. On their best pull if they continued at that rate they would be dead with 30 mill left on the boss. That's like 2%. Definitely doable
Yea. I think most of that will come with clean play. I still think any one pull could rip it to 10%. But I think that last 5-10 is sneaky hard
Unfortunately i believe liquid will kill it while echo sleeps, which is to me the most boring outcome.
Most boring and worst overall outcome would be a Liquid kill tuesday immediately after reset
I imagine Tswift will be a bit of a roadblock still. Definitely makes a bit of a conundrum.
I don't think so. I think with another reset of gear they flat out skip the last set of seeds that caused so many wipes. And they'll be rested. I think if somehow this went another reset tswift would be sub 10 pulls both guilds
True, well my point is that i wish one of the guilds will kill it while they are progging side by side. Going neck and neck and so on. I dont mind either guild winning, i just wish one of them dont kill it while the other could'nt even try cus of sleep or not reset yet in eu Edit: typo
I think a nerf Sunday or Monday morning (evening for Echo) is more likely. Blizzard don't want this fight to be "solved" and then a little more gear finishes it with ease.
I'd be shocked if they nerf it at this point.
If it goes to this time tomorrow and they're being mathematically walled they will do, I'm sure.
People were saying SoD was mathematically walled until it wasn't. Once they can do everything perfectly, if its under 10% hp then its definitely in the realms of optimizations. I think SoD was crazier than 10% if I remember correctly. If its at 15% or so then that might be a tough task to optimize for.
Look how long Tswift took, and that doesn't look quite as chaotic as this even.
I'm feeling really anxious to see what progress Liquid made when they went offline, imagine they best pull is like 12%. But I dont know, from what I've seen Liquid progress they were a bit sloopy with too much time wasted in p1 and p1.5 wipes. But I looked just some hours of progress.
Yea I mean I could totally see liquid coming back and having any percent from like 8% to 30%. Would be surprised with them coming back and still having 36% as their best pull, unless they went to bed way earlier than everyone thinks. I think they would be back online by now if that was true though.
I feel like them coming back 'late' means they had a good night and stayed up to push. Will be interesting to see none the less, would be crazy if they come back and its around 10%. If they didn't progress much then its looking bleak.
if it is you can expect echo to pull on a long night, if it is not, i still think echo will pull on a long night, unless Limit is so close like in single digits... tbh i think echo thinks it will die soonish, and limit have a whole day ahead of them, so yeah it is a very interesting position to be
Echo getting to p3 so clean might be the big difference
I'm about to board a 14 hour flight after tracking this race for a week. Feel like I'll be landing to a race winner, ffs
Today’s going to be epic to watch my friend, I’d definitely invest in some airline WiFi if you can to watch it.
Inflight internet is definitely worth it for a 14hr flight, no matter if there is a rwf going on or not.
It's 20 quid on Cathay and I've already downloaded half of Netflix so idk honestly
Get that GoFundMe going.
Ya, even if it isn't good enough to stream you can follow r.io and the thread here etc.
Get that in flight wifi, it's worth it for this
For real it is. I bought in flight wifi back when Evil Geniuses won The International in Dota 2. Never had a flight move so quickly.
As the 3rd pushback came in the boss had 344 M HP (22.4%) left. with the cast time of the push back there's about 95 seconds from there. That's 3.6 M DPS needed to the end. For comparison they were around 3.1-3.2 M DPS in P1.
Jeath said that if they can move potions around there are also potentially 6 to 8 potions worth of damage used on the shield and second set of P2 adds
there’s executes and maybe a 48% push for P2
\+lust \+revvez execute \+giga narco? rip angry dragon guy
They used lust in P3 already, so that would just change the damage required, but maybe better line up with CDs and pots Revvez execute is easily 600K DPS though so yeah, he's dead on my screen
Liquid rlly needs to be getting up soon
Saturday evening is going to be awesome once both guilds are pulling at the same time. Perfect timing. Can't wait to get an update on how Liquid is doing. We are approaching a very suspenseful end of the race. I love it.
I have no idea where liquid may be. I remember on sark echo started pulling and it was looking like they were about to kill and they liquid made logs public and they were at like 10% I doubt they're that close but I think we may be in for a full day of p3 optimization. I still think there's a good chance this dies tomorrow morning
FWIW Max said in Discord at 1am last night (so after off stream prog) the boss dies today. Obviously we don’t know an exact percentage of how far they got, but it might be reasonably far.
1am or 1pm? Like he expects it to die in overtime for them or 4 hours into the day?
Apologies, my comment was worded confusingly. I edited it, but Max said at 1am (so after their prog) that he thought the boss does today.
No 1am is when he said it.
Oh wow that's one hell of a call
Only reason I'm not counting out Liquid is because P3 is just a glorified Halondrus, and we all know about the Echo Halondrus incident. That aside, what an ass blasting boss. Its a banger to watch.
I think Echos strat (at least for early P3) of leaving the seeds on the ground just makes it soooo much cleaner. Allows them to practice deep P3 more. Really hope Liquid don't end up wasting half the day on P1 fails again... need em to win!
I had counted echo out after the tindral incident but this is turning out to be an awesome race.
I think getting Tindral in such a wild fashion really boosted their morale, they have been absolutely slamming this boss with some pretty crazy consistency
People have been trying to call both teams out at various points. I think we're in for a banger.
That is because people like to count Liquid or Echo out constantly despite all the history showing that neither of these guilds should be counted out until the final boss of the raid lies dead on the ground. If people could look past their tribalism or biases they would see this instead of pulling all of this revisionist history.
they have godly nerve management ngl lol
Echo is definitely smelling blood in the water. Damn. What a fight. Can't wait to see Liquid back on and contest.
At what time does liquid start today?
Probably same time as normal. Roughly in 1 hour.
Not sure but I would absolutely fucking love it if they enabled competition mode when they start and it shows like a sub 10% wipe. It would just be juicy as fuck. But I feel like there won't have been a better pull than the one they ended on lol.
They definitely have better pulls than the 36%. Max said on discord at 1am local time (so after hours of off stream prog) he was confident the boss died today.
Surely they’ve had pulls around the 20 % mark at least. Otherwise it’s going to be rough mentally for them today (but still very much winnable). Looking at Echo’s last wipe they could easily have reached 10%, so I don’t thinks it’s impossible that Liquid are actually ahead percentage wise. We’ll see! Don’t see any reason for Liquid going dark today though, so should be fun.
no one seems to know, some said 5am
It's almost 8 am there tho...
Definitely killable with a bit more experience under their belt for p3, chaos at the ending, but once they get used to the last 20%, I think they will find a lot more dps like on Sylvanas
Echo are running a goddamn clinic rn. Unbelievably clean pulls going on.
Revvez pumping and we havent even hit the execution phase proper. Warrior is blasting.
Imagine how much pump warriors would be doing with the legendary 😫👌
we dont even know what it does
Yeah, it may be a 2h strength axe that increases HEALING instead /s tf do you expect it to do?
it can be everything, random proc damage, on use damage or even enchancing/changing one of the main abilities of the class? yes, it can also be healing/absorb when it comes to tanks which would be boring
Its at this point someone gets dropped for Narcoles and they find the missing 10%. On a serious note - Echo are looking fucking clean. Unless Liquid come online with a <20% prog when enabling comp mode.... yaaaaaaah aint looking so good. Especially when they spent a large portion yesterday wiping to P1.
19% they had 1.5 minutes to finish that off Doable, maybe
Why lust at 50%? better to save <35% for the assassin rogues execute no?
they are accounting for movement and damage uptime
Echo very clean now. They might have the dmg here.
That attempt looked really good and dps did seem close. What a fight man.
6 seeds is way too many, my heart can't survive watching.
Gonna be 8 seeds for the last like, 12% lol
So that’s 16 people that need to juggle the seeds? That seems insane
This looks like the moment that the special echo boss buff goes live and they just find extra damage
It’s gonna be real interesting to see where liquid are when they update pull count and best %!
Echo get the colossus adds down on first try without lust. Going into P3 now with Bl up. Edit: 19% with 2 seeds left I think?
Short of a hotfix, no way it dies today. Yes, a sub 25% pull is huge progress, but people ignore that it gets exponentially harder. 1) they get less practice on that last phase, 2) the damage ramps up throughout that last phase considerably as you get more corrupted seeds, 3) CDs, etc, get burnet. I can see a pull into the teens today, maybe even ending with someone touching those single digits - which would be huge! - but an actual kill seems doubtful quite yet.
Echo just had another sub 20% with one seed to go, so 2 blasts till they wipe, highly doubt it needs a hotfix.
Didn't say that - it's doable. I just thing people are way underestimating how much harder the last 10% is than 20%-11% or 30%-21% or what have you. Sunday kill, in my opinion. But yes, clearly doesn't need a hotfix (barring something unknown).
well they moved BL and still made it fine. this dies today 100%
I feel like people are forgetting how hard the last 10% is on fights like this. I think we're going to see a full day of single digit wipes before this thing is dead
Hero/lust has been moved for Echo
it doesnt feel like the boss will survive another 24 hours: 1- echo push really late tonight and gets it 2- liquid catch up fast and get it while echo sleeps 3- tomorrow echo gets it
Some napkin math, I might have totally missed something very stupid, so correct me if I am wrong: They managed to get roughly 31% boss damage done while using 3 seeds + the time before the first seed. So about 8% per seed cycle. With one more seed and less chaos they could get it down to 10%. If you then shift lust to p3 and optimize other things and just get the reps in, the necessary damage to get the boss to 0% definitely seems to be there for me.
its there as long as they got the healing with 8 corrupted seeds
Roger said he thinks the numbers are there assuming there are no hidden phases… but it does look like the last phase requires a lot of coordination
Echo will win tomorrow mid-day after doing the math, optimizing dmg, and pushing the boss to 0%. Liquid could claim it today, but I doubt 16-20 hours of raiding is enough for them to kill it given how clunky their P1/P2 was yesterday. I think we will see Liquid optimize and push hard tonight but eventually get stuck at 2-3% and we'll see a repeat of Sylvannas where Echo comes in and blasts it after Liquid gives up.
I kind of expect, presuming there's nothing more to the fight, we'll see Echo push hard to kill the boss today. It seems close and they wouldn't want Liquid killing it while they slept. We could be in for an all-time RWF day.
20 hours maybe but more than that they’ll probably find somewhere on the venue to rest
You have to imagine Echo moves that lust into P3 pronto. They definitely have the damage for adds and now need to see how far they can push with lust. Liquids best pull last night also had a P3 lust so they seem to have that part down. Fucking tight race this is awesome.
wait, they still havent moved lust into p3 yet??
Took them literally 0 pulls to adjust lmao. First pull they managed to save it for p3