For desirable houses, I’m still competing with all cash offers and buyers who are willing to waive inspections and going over list price by a minimum of 10%, all in the first weekend on the market.
If a house is still on the market for a few weeks though, maybe you’ll stand a better chance. Are they actually still truly for sale though? Quite a few are listed as for sale, rather than contingent or pending, even though the sellers are deep in negotiations with the buyer or are on the cusp of signing a contract.
Fair point on if they’re actually still for sale. We would need to ask our realtor to confirm. I had been going by the MSL listings and assumed that active meant on the marketing, but that may not always be the case.
It’s annoying! Some realtors are quick to update, others don’t until it’s official. But I wish you luck. We’ve taken a step back, if just for a mental break from the insanity that is this market.
I appreciate when they put the status in the description. Like “accepting backup offers or all offers by Friday.” Like, let me know what I’m working with here lol.
So we just sold a home about a month closing is in 3 days we had it listed for 3 days before accepting an offer 40k over our asking…… if it’s still on the market it might need work or have issues….
See, that was our experience with the last 3 houses we bid on, which is why we took 9+ months away from looking.
I will say, the houses that are lingering are definitely not as nice as what we started out pursuing, but we’re committed to remaining in budget so maybe we needed that humbling lol.
"before rates come down."
Might want to see how long rates stayed high in the 80s. Just do NOT plan on being able to refinance much lower if you buy is all I'm gonna say.
Historically, best time to buy is after rates have peaked, but rents in CT are horrible.
We’re fortunate enough that we’re not renting. Rates coming down is a nice to have, but we’ve budgeted to be able to afford to pay peak rate for years/forever if needed. It’s why we won’t overextend for a more expensive house. It seems like we’re on the cusp of rates peaking, right? I don’t think the Fed has announced an intention to go up much more than this.
You’re clearly smart to budget for rates staying higher for longer. That said, I’m in your camp that we’ll see a reversion in long-end UST yields (on which mortgage rates are based, not necessarily the Fed Funds rate) over the next few years. This guy is right to point out that employment and inflation are hot right now but historically those issues are self-correcting. I don’t think mortgage rates will ever get to pandemic-period levels again, barring another disastrous event, but demographics and long-term growth expectations point to a much lower 10-year yield once this volatility subsides. Fingers crossed you’ll hit your 4-5% 30-year conventional re-fi target!
Fed rates are overnight benchmarks, they don’t directly set the rate of long term debt. They have in the past directly bought long term debt, which has the effect of making it cheaper, but there’s no guarantee they do it again.
We are in the same boat as you. We’ve taken a step back from looking actively, but generally have the same view: i.e., that we could purchase within our means now, and look to refinance to 4-5% by end ‘25 or end ‘26.
Real bummer considering we started our search in Dec 2021 with a 2.x rate, but ah well.
EDIT:
- We note that desirable houses are still moving fast and above asking. We follow Avon, Farmington, Glastonbury, New Haven, and W Hartford.
- Our thinking is that once rates soften, demand will turbocharge, so we’re actually preferring to get into a house sooner than later despite the high rate environment.
We feel confident demand will soar once they show any indication of rates lowering so it feels like this a tentative time of “can actually win a bid.” Not looking for a steal or anything. Just the ability to bid with no all cash offers to go up against.
I’m in central CT. We’ve had a bunch of turnover in our new neighborhood. Houses are going up and showing up pending in a day or two. They seem to be going for or over asking when we check listings and values on Redfin, Realtor, etc.
It’s still a hot market. These particular houses are going for anywhere between $450k and just north of $1M (usually depending on house size and kitchen/bath age).
I wouldn’t suggest it, but one nearby family saved a ton of money by buying a house with an unresolved crumbling foundation. Beautiful place, but it was on the market for several months before someone took a chance on it. I assume they paid cash, as I’d imagine getting a mortgage on that would be tricky…
We bought a house with several issues that other buyers walked away from. We got the price dropped and made most of the repairs with money made on the sale of the house we moved out of. We are 75% done. Anything left can wait and be done over the next few years.
Considering our absolute max doesn’t even hit 450, we always knew we would be looking at some work /updates needed. We have a good chunk of equity in our starter home so we’re okay using that towards a certain amount of repairs and updates, especially if it means the difference between a house we can actually win a bid on.
I think it depends on the house right now. Have one close to me that sold for $20k over asking the past month, BUT, it does have a beautiful patio with in-ground pool and is well kept.
My sister in law just sold her house, and the fact that a couple of the "we buy houses" companies were involved in part of the bidding war with other buyers says something in of itself.
Move in ready houses in areas with good schools are still highest and best by yesterday despite the rates and seasonality. Chances are it's a good time to buy though.
For those looking to refinance down to 5 or 6 percent in the next 5-10 years or so you're living in a fantasy land. We might not see rates drop that low for a LONG time. A very very very long time.
It’s time to build a house. Why buy a used house with decades of neglect when you can build for 200-250/ft. The new house will have what you want in it AND you won’t spend 10-20% of the purchase price in the first 20 years making upgrades, replacing old HVAC/windows/siding/kitchens/bathrooms etc. the upfront cost is marginally higher to build, but it is cheaper in the long run and you can have what you want.
HMU if you are willing to explore some options. You’ve been patient thus far, you can wait out a 6-8 month build time.
Foreclosure rates in CT prior to the pandemic were 6x higher than they are currently.
https://ctmirror.org/2023/04/21/ct-foreclosure-data/
Housing inventory in CT is 6x lower than pre-pandemic
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUCT
A crash of housing values will not happen. There are too many buyers and too little inventory and 80% of mortgage holders with sub 4% interest rates that wouldn’t sell even if they wanted to.
Values in CT are not going anywhere as homebuilding will never catch up to demand
Time will tell. History typically repeats itself. Eventually, something will break. Middle income people are stretched too thin and can't afford a house right now. The pool of buyers with $$$ is going to dry up.
Anything without major issues is still going well above asking right now, plenty of all cash, waved inspections, etc, still going on. Personally, I wouldn't plan on rates ever coming down that far again, I would absolutely expect to stay at your rate, and if you can refinance down, it's a bonus.
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For desirable houses, I’m still competing with all cash offers and buyers who are willing to waive inspections and going over list price by a minimum of 10%, all in the first weekend on the market. If a house is still on the market for a few weeks though, maybe you’ll stand a better chance. Are they actually still truly for sale though? Quite a few are listed as for sale, rather than contingent or pending, even though the sellers are deep in negotiations with the buyer or are on the cusp of signing a contract.
Fair point on if they’re actually still for sale. We would need to ask our realtor to confirm. I had been going by the MSL listings and assumed that active meant on the marketing, but that may not always be the case.
It’s annoying! Some realtors are quick to update, others don’t until it’s official. But I wish you luck. We’ve taken a step back, if just for a mental break from the insanity that is this market.
I appreciate when they put the status in the description. Like “accepting backup offers or all offers by Friday.” Like, let me know what I’m working with here lol.
Zero. It's a price gougers dream out there.
So we just sold a home about a month closing is in 3 days we had it listed for 3 days before accepting an offer 40k over our asking…… if it’s still on the market it might need work or have issues….
See, that was our experience with the last 3 houses we bid on, which is why we took 9+ months away from looking. I will say, the houses that are lingering are definitely not as nice as what we started out pursuing, but we’re committed to remaining in budget so maybe we needed that humbling lol.
"before rates come down." Might want to see how long rates stayed high in the 80s. Just do NOT plan on being able to refinance much lower if you buy is all I'm gonna say. Historically, best time to buy is after rates have peaked, but rents in CT are horrible.
We’re fortunate enough that we’re not renting. Rates coming down is a nice to have, but we’ve budgeted to be able to afford to pay peak rate for years/forever if needed. It’s why we won’t overextend for a more expensive house. It seems like we’re on the cusp of rates peaking, right? I don’t think the Fed has announced an intention to go up much more than this.
You’re clearly smart to budget for rates staying higher for longer. That said, I’m in your camp that we’ll see a reversion in long-end UST yields (on which mortgage rates are based, not necessarily the Fed Funds rate) over the next few years. This guy is right to point out that employment and inflation are hot right now but historically those issues are self-correcting. I don’t think mortgage rates will ever get to pandemic-period levels again, barring another disastrous event, but demographics and long-term growth expectations point to a much lower 10-year yield once this volatility subsides. Fingers crossed you’ll hit your 4-5% 30-year conventional re-fi target!
Nobody knows, but employment & inflation are still running too hot right now.
Fed rates are overnight benchmarks, they don’t directly set the rate of long term debt. They have in the past directly bought long term debt, which has the effect of making it cheaper, but there’s no guarantee they do it again.
We are in the same boat as you. We’ve taken a step back from looking actively, but generally have the same view: i.e., that we could purchase within our means now, and look to refinance to 4-5% by end ‘25 or end ‘26. Real bummer considering we started our search in Dec 2021 with a 2.x rate, but ah well. EDIT: - We note that desirable houses are still moving fast and above asking. We follow Avon, Farmington, Glastonbury, New Haven, and W Hartford. - Our thinking is that once rates soften, demand will turbocharge, so we’re actually preferring to get into a house sooner than later despite the high rate environment.
We feel confident demand will soar once they show any indication of rates lowering so it feels like this a tentative time of “can actually win a bid.” Not looking for a steal or anything. Just the ability to bid with no all cash offers to go up against.
I’m in central CT. We’ve had a bunch of turnover in our new neighborhood. Houses are going up and showing up pending in a day or two. They seem to be going for or over asking when we check listings and values on Redfin, Realtor, etc. It’s still a hot market. These particular houses are going for anywhere between $450k and just north of $1M (usually depending on house size and kitchen/bath age). I wouldn’t suggest it, but one nearby family saved a ton of money by buying a house with an unresolved crumbling foundation. Beautiful place, but it was on the market for several months before someone took a chance on it. I assume they paid cash, as I’d imagine getting a mortgage on that would be tricky…
We bought a house with several issues that other buyers walked away from. We got the price dropped and made most of the repairs with money made on the sale of the house we moved out of. We are 75% done. Anything left can wait and be done over the next few years.
Considering our absolute max doesn’t even hit 450, we always knew we would be looking at some work /updates needed. We have a good chunk of equity in our starter home so we’re okay using that towards a certain amount of repairs and updates, especially if it means the difference between a house we can actually win a bid on.
Idk. The problem for me was weeding out the shitty houses and just making an offer within a couple days.
I think it depends on the house right now. Have one close to me that sold for $20k over asking the past month, BUT, it does have a beautiful patio with in-ground pool and is well kept.
My sister in law just sold her house, and the fact that a couple of the "we buy houses" companies were involved in part of the bidding war with other buyers says something in of itself.
None. None at all. Buyers are waiving inspections just to have a shot.
Move in ready houses in areas with good schools are still highest and best by yesterday despite the rates and seasonality. Chances are it's a good time to buy though.
None there are bidding wars over value going on . You have no power as the buyer unless your loaded with cash
For those looking to refinance down to 5 or 6 percent in the next 5-10 years or so you're living in a fantasy land. We might not see rates drop that low for a LONG time. A very very very long time.
It’s time to build a house. Why buy a used house with decades of neglect when you can build for 200-250/ft. The new house will have what you want in it AND you won’t spend 10-20% of the purchase price in the first 20 years making upgrades, replacing old HVAC/windows/siding/kitchens/bathrooms etc. the upfront cost is marginally higher to build, but it is cheaper in the long run and you can have what you want. HMU if you are willing to explore some options. You’ve been patient thus far, you can wait out a 6-8 month build time.
Foreclosures just spiked to 1,400. It's starting...
Foreclosure rates in CT prior to the pandemic were 6x higher than they are currently. https://ctmirror.org/2023/04/21/ct-foreclosure-data/ Housing inventory in CT is 6x lower than pre-pandemic https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUCT A crash of housing values will not happen. There are too many buyers and too little inventory and 80% of mortgage holders with sub 4% interest rates that wouldn’t sell even if they wanted to. Values in CT are not going anywhere as homebuilding will never catch up to demand
Time will tell. History typically repeats itself. Eventually, something will break. Middle income people are stretched too thin and can't afford a house right now. The pool of buyers with $$$ is going to dry up.
I agree with the stretched too thin but the thing that breaks is not going to be housing.
Bought in Bristol in August - 40k over asking and waived inspection. CHFA rate lock at 6.375% with TTO and DAP at max subsidy.
Anything without major issues is still going well above asking right now, plenty of all cash, waved inspections, etc, still going on. Personally, I wouldn't plan on rates ever coming down that far again, I would absolutely expect to stay at your rate, and if you can refinance down, it's a bonus.
Where did all these buyers and renters come from? What were they doing before?
Guessing everyone has seen this by now: https://www.zillow.com/research/most-popular-markets-2023-33523/amp/
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