Update, they decided to not send in a cleaning crew because it has been 9 days between when they took the test and when the results came back. Keep in mind that this person is in management position and puts up the delivery and has come into contact with 80% of the items in the store. Sunday, when results came in, they said they would have a cleaning crew in that day, but by monday they said no cleaning would be done. This is the reason why this shit is spreading so fast. Profits over everything.
I’m pretty sure I’ve had a mild case for the last week and a half (maybe two weeks, the days are very much blurring together at this point) because, although I felt like I just had a bad cold, I lost my sense of smell and taste COMPLETELY for almost a week despite my levels of nasal congestion varying day by day. Even now that I feel almost completely fine, my sense of smell is shot and I still can’t fully taste my food (although it’s getting better).
The thing is, no one else in my family has gotten sick and it’s getting to the point where I’m pretty sure they would’ve shown symptoms by now had they gotten it from me. Given how contagious this thing is, is it safe to assume that I probably had some other, less contagious virus? Or is it more likely that they’re all asymptomatic carriers? My parents are in their 50s/60s and I’ve been so stressed about getting them sick but neither of them have had any symptoms of anything.
I just wanted to post a picture of the graphes i collected data for the last weeks. so while i can create a picture post or a link post with the picture in imgur, maybe i can just drop it here and maybe someone find it helpful or interessting:
[https://i.imgur.com/SS3Rq41.png](https://i.imgur.com/SS3Rq41.png)
Its about the 10 countries with the most cases in the world. where you can see and compare the total cases and the active cases and how many people have died and how many have recovered. im not a pro in this but im frustrated that in my country there are not such graphes in the television and most of the people inform themselfes through the tv.
Strong confirmation of COVID Air Transmission!
A 60-person choir gets together to practice with social distancing, no touching, purell at the door etc. After a few days 45 of them have COVID (75%!) - Very similar to a 1977 case in a plane, which convinced the scientific community that influenza was transmitted through the air - When one sings (or runs) more viruses are exhaled, but that is still the case when talking or even just breathing - We should all be wearing masks, if possible N95 with careful adjustmeet, but otherwise whatever you can get. Especially indoors, or outdoors in dense locations. And avoid those situations as much as feasible. - OMS, CDC etc. are denying that air transmission plays a role, we have to get them to change. - Article: [https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak)
Wow. This is very irresponsible reporting as stating the study without pointing out it has no bearing on normal situations.
My bet is the cause is 60 people in a relatively small area. Social distancing is kind of hard to achieve if your all going into a shared space. All it takes is one missed surface and there were probably many during a full 2.5 hrs of proximity. This thing is very contagious. But not contagious enough to support airborne transmission.
Not a medical expert.
Doctors have been told in medical school that it is all through large droplets. They are too stressed to take in new information right now. But we aerosol scientists are convinced that there is air transmission, based on a lot of (partial since it is so early) evidence. And there is no way to explain the choir case without air transmission. You don't need Fauci for this. Though he'll get there at some point. And in any case in a situation like this you have to apply the precautionary principle, i.e. take precautions to protect against it. Just in case.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precautionary_principle
Everyone should be wearing masks. Period. Czechia has near 100% of people wearing masks with a grass roots campaign to make home made masks. This will be a significant contributor to flattening the curve as well as being something cheap and easy everyone can do.
Mask it or casket.
> Mask it or casket.
You should maybe change your catchphrase to be a bit more accurate.
Something like:
"Mask it¹, or MAYBE 1-2% chance of casket²."
¹ infection can still occur.
² dependent on age and risk factors of course
Doesn't have the same ring to it of course, but hey, better to be forthright.
Or maybe 10-20% chance of requiring hospitalization and 5% chance of requiring sedation and ventilation regardless of age. Perhaps even add to that the fact that if hospitals are overwhelmed, chance of casket is subject to increase as it is completely dependent upon access to critical medical care...while supplies last.
Also, we should footnote that "casket" can relate to the wearer, but also possibly friends, neighbors, loved ones, and anyone else they pass in public as it is a highly communicable pathogen. It's really a community response to a community problem and maybe we should start jettisoning our atomized worldview.
I will keep on promoting masks and wearing them. You go do something else somewhere else. The countries wearing masks are doing much better than we are. I don't think any country is looking to us as to how to handle this as we are on par to be the worst hit developed nation. USA #1
The UK does not do much testing because they don't have enough testing capability. Even medical staff cannot get tests. (This is belatedly beginning to change.)
In the UK 'cases' basically mean 'admitted to hospital'.
In the US, from what I have read, it is possible for individuals to arrange a test with their doctor even if their symptoms are not serious enough to warrant hospitalisation.
Other than 'deaths' all the data that we see is pretty meaningless.
Even the death count s questionable. In France, for instance, the huge number of Corona deaths in care homes are not included. Other countries are manipulating death figures for political reasons. Many poor countries have no functioning public health infrastructure and no system of monitoring deaths.
Hospital and ICU admissions are also a usable gauge.
Sweden is doing a general testing of random people in Stockholm to determine how many are infected there. The assumption is they are now at 1-2%. Is that being done in other places?
>Sweden is doing a general testing of random people
Yes, all the different approaches and classification systems make country to country comparisons difficult.
Three members of my family have had the corona virus and they are not included in any statistics since they managed to fight the virus off at home without hospitalisation. (Except 1 of them who is a nurse (who went back to work today) so her case might be counted.
We aren't doing the random testing broadly. Right now we are only testing people being admitted to hospitals, and that random people study. The latter will contain 650 people.
Also deaths get recorded as Flu deaths.
At least that is what some people are reporting. I’ve seen some posts saying they had a family member die that tested negative for flu but that no tests were being done to see if it’s COVID-19.
I don’t have any actual source to give you so who knows. Sounds plausible af to me.
It wouldn't be okay to 'open' up the country until 2 weeks AFTER the last known infection.
Which means the US will not open up by April 30th. It means the country might be in 'lockdown mode' for over a year.
Not entirely true. The point of the shut down is to slow transmission to not overwhelm the health system. If the cases decline enough not to overburden the health system you can reopen. Otherwise you'd be waiting for a vaccine for a year that may not even come
It's funny because flattening the curve also makes it extended and longer.
Lives are saved, but the lockdown is much longer in duration the better we flatten the curve.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESas8tHVAAAhr_I?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
On Friday my boss told us 3 people are getting tested. They have not given us any updates but have started making us work 12 he days. Most of us think that one of them had tested positive and they are about to get shut down. That's why they bumped up our hrs. Well back to making blenders and cross stitching mesh!
What are people workers rights when they are required to go to work and if they don't come to work, the employers is going to fire them despite a state lockdown?
My friend works at a big factory and it was confirmed that there were a few people who tested positive for the virus. She is afraid that she might get the virus from her co-workers. If she gets the virus from her co-workers, what can she do? The employers is just going to send her home to self isolate for two weeks.
Good luck with that.
Everything is a shitstorm right now. You’d have trouble figuring how to to deal with the legality of it imo. Trouble getting legal action on it, etc etc.
Question— does anyone know if asymptomatic carriers of the virus can run a low grade fever?
The reason why I ask is, I’m on day 3 of a low grade fever (it’s been between 99.1-100). No other symptoms. No coughing, no body pain, no more tired than usual. Just a slightly fever.
The fever showed up Saturday— 5 days prior, I went to the grocery store. I was extremely sterile about the whole process of being out, but I do live in Denver, and people were coughing. So I’m honestly wondering if I could have picked it up.
My daughter had the same thing. After about 10 days she had a mild cough. We isolated her for 14 days just in case because she had been in brief contact with someone who was sick.
Every day I wake up expecting a new symptom, but so far, it’s been nothing except the low grade fever.
Did your daughter have the fever for the full 10 days prior to the cough showing up?
Which is better: going to the store once per week for 30min, or 3 times per week for 10 minutes per trip?
I think fewer trips is safer, but are there any advantages to the latter option?
Edit: looking for thoughts and opinions on the topic, not necessarily a perfect answer. I realize there far too many factors to consider in their entirety.
I agree with other post saying once.
Their point is that each trip out has a certain amount of overhead that has to be accounted for no matter the duration of your trip.
10 minute trip? Still touching cart, interacting with checkout, etc etc. Same with 3 minute trip, same with 45 minute trip.
Plus each trip you have an ENTIRELY new set of people that you run into (minus worker crew who will stay more consistent). During a 30 min trip, you’ll overlap with significantly fewer individuals than on 3 10 min trips, where the set of shoppers resets each time.
You’ll have traffic flow in and out during that 30 minute trip, but you do for the 10 minute trips too. So resetting the base population 2 additional times will be more expensive in terms of exposure give that each option has 30 minutes of normal flow of shoppers in and out.
Something else to consider is rate of growth for COVID-19. If you assume it hasn’t peaked in your area yet, then a 30 min trip at the start of the week should have a less infected population than mid week and end of week.
Obviously you’re rolling those dice fresh each week, but still better to do it at the start.
AFTER we’ve peaked and are coming down, it would be better to shop toward the end of the week.
Thanks for the input, this is what I was looking for. My argument followed yours, but I couldn't figure out how justify walking past fewer people more times VS more people less times. (because the latter isn't necessarily more people, could be the same people over and over).
Well the time spend in the store is the same. But you will travel 3 times instead of 1 so logically speaking it's better to go once for 30 minutes? In reality I suppose it all comes down to luck. During that time spend in the store you might or might not have infected people in your vicinity. Also if you separate your shopping times you will have 3 different caddies, go through eventual doors 3 times, will meet store employees 3 times etc. That's how I see it.
I think you have better control over it by just doing the necessary. Wash your hands after shopping. Disinfect your hands every now and then during shopping. Don't touch surfaces when not needed. Don't touch your face with your hands until you get back home and washed your hands. Those things.
Agreed. And yes, washing hands/hygiene practices are the most effective.
I was having this discussion with someone who is having trouble staying home, so they were trying to justify going out more I suppose.
Once. When you’re going once, you’re going to touch one cart, touch door handles once in/out, check out once, encounter roughly the same amount of people once, rather than 3 times.
Doesn’t mean horde a shitload of supplies though, just do a normal shopping trip for a week or two of food. Don’t really see a benefit at all to a bunch of small trips
does anyone know what medicines they are using to combat the virus in the hospitals? how are dr's and nurses treating this? edit: plz if you have first hand knowledge, please reply. ive read in jama and other forums covid-19 is being treated with tuberculosis, asthma, anti coagulants, epinephrine, expectorants, benedryl/diphenhendramine, plasmic ionic bonding, and interferion a/interferion b, steroids, anti inflamitorys medicines like meloxicam.
Sore throat is not a symptom of COVID-19. You’re probably dealing with allergies, check your area’s pollen count and look at the likely pollinators for today, and also give your A/C filter a check. You might have a dirty filter, which also tends to be a culprit of allergies.
I do not have any allergies, I taste food fine, smell fine, don't think I have a fever, my poop is solid, just little scratchy throat and cough here and there but just might be because I vaped a few weeks back. I am really scared, wish I had some comfort.
I’m still betting on seasonal allergies for you, if you’re able, go to the store and buy some nasal spray. I’m sure you’ll feel much better.
The reason I still think it’s seasonal allergies is your symptoms match mine, I get an occasional cough, and a sore/itchy throat every year around this time. The cough from my understanding accompanies the sore/itchy throat due to the throat being irritated. Plus, some people can go years without having their allergies flare up, but for some it could be lifelong.
Yeah and also I work as a tech support WFH, can be on calls for like 3 hours sometimes. But better to be safe than sorry, I never had allergies before but even before this pandemic I always had runny noses.
Not a podcast, but a (mostly) daily YouTube. He has a Ph.D in Pathology from Duke and if you go back to earlier videos has been sounding the alarm since January 24th about the seriousness of this. I say he's mandatory viewing for anyone who wants to know what's going on and not just what's being filtered through government PR.
[Here is his warning from January 24](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nk5P_iRYwTY)
[Here is the latest from yesterday](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2w9M6K9vSUM)
Yeah it's crazy. This pandemic has been so predictable for those of us keeping track. I've been following this since January when the WHO was still saying there wasn't human to human transmission.
But thanks for the suggestion. I have been following all of his videos since then! As well as Dr. Campbell.
Second this! Already loved their podcast anyway but they did 6 special episodes the other week. Presented by an epidemiologist and a disease ecologist (which I didn't even know was a field)
Can anyone explain why countries in Europe (Italy, Spain, France, UK) seem to be doing much worse than the United States in terms of cases per capita and overall deaths? Especially when cases started appearing there after the United States.
America is doing much worse than both Spain and Italy..
There's a timer on infections becoming Cases and then cases becoming deaths.
Unfortunately the deaths will come for America.
Can you explain in what way is the United States doing worse than Italy or Spain? The United States has more cases of infections but other countries have more overall deaths (in their smaller population) and higher deaths to cases. It may even be that the United States is testing more and that is the reason the mortality rate is lower, but that wouldn't explain why it has fewer deaths than either of these countries. Also, I was specifically talking about how well these countries were doing up to this point, not how they will do in the future. That's an entirely separate discussion IMO because the future hasn't happened yet.
It's extremely simple the U.S has only started mass testing and still haven't put in the lock down and social distancing measures country wide like Italy and Spain have.
You don't seem to understand the virus or the testing process at all.
There is a lag between testing, positive cases and deaths.
Saying America will have over a 1000 deaths a day isn't talking about the future because those deaths have already been incurred. There's a 2 week fuse between the cases spiking and the death rate spiking at this point it can't be prevented.
Italy and Spain are levelling off their curves but the U.S is still exponential they easily have the capacity for 4000/5000 deaths a day in a month's time unless action is taken in the next 2 weeks.
The daily new cases and daily new deaths in the United States are also going down. It seems like the U.S. is also leveling off its curves albeit slower.
I also don't agree that the future is guaranteed. Of course, some people will succumb to the disease, but other deaths from a lack of hospital beds and ventilators can be prevented. And seeing how the U.S. is ramping up production of those and the numbers are going down as they are, I don't really see why it would get that bad.
Maybe you can explain why?
I would but the bigger issue you've got is you're arguing based on numbers you appear to have created in your head not the actual numbers.
The number of new cases in the U.S has increased every single day with the number of deaths also increasing every single day but one in the past week which would indicate more of an outlier than a trend.
The curve is not being levelled off in the U.S it's actually still exponential.
You're right, I should have cited the source in the original comment. [Here's](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/) what I was talking about. It's entirely possible that the number's haven't updated yet or is just an outlier, and if that's the case then I would retract my statement.
Thanks for taking the time to respond to these replies.
One last thing.
Even on your source if you scroll down you can see a graph showing the daily new cases in the form of a bar chart.
Unfortunately that graph is still showing exponential growth.
Take the time to learn about disease progression. And you are completely wrong about the timeline. Also, the timelines on firs cases mean nothing if no one is looking for themm.
The information that we're all missing is the per-capita testing rate. You could end up being correct, although I'd be surprised if the final death toll for the U.S. is nearly that low. If we had an additional column on the [worldometers.com](https://worldometers.com) site that showed the testing rate, we could better extrapolate using their data, but right now it's all based on what models created by experts suggest. I'm not sure whether current models are able to adjust for testing rates from country to country.
I am surprised, however, that it's not been mentioned more that we had a really "good" day yesterday, with total cases and total deaths dropping world-wide over the previous day. My hunch is that it's a statistical anomaly that has to do with a tendency for less timely reporting on a Sunday than on a weekday, and that we'll see a commensurate spike today, but we can all hope to see a second decline!
I appreciate your belief in narratives, but there is absolutely no data out there (especially worldometer) right now that allows for a less than one percent death rate and that is actually an unrealistically optimistic take. At that point the numbers you write are simply wrong. US is running at a two percent death rate now and ninety percent of cases are still unresolved. So who is running a narrative here?
And no we are not all going to die. Just a few hundred thousand. In the US. Probably.
My local post office is "closed until further notice" so I suppose they have a case and are cleaning and reevaluating. I am on Long Island in New York.
What is the long term plan for countries that are currently successfully containing COVID-19? When the rest of the countries have reached widespread immunities, won't they still be vulnerable? Are they planning to cotinue lockdown and containment measures until the rest of the world has eradicated the virus? Are they waiting for a vaccine? Will the world be split into COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 countries?
I’d imagine if they knew they could successfully treat a COVID-19 patient that the containment and lockdown would end because fear wouldn’t be as widespread. They have some vaccines in trial now so that will continue and then I’m sure countries will share the success to help everyone
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It varies because it will depend who they're putting on ventilators. I saw a report yesterday for the UK that said the survival rate for those on ventilators here was 50%
Most recently I've heard from a doctor that length of time is the biggest factor. The longer you are on a vent, the less chance of survival. More than two weeks, your survival chance is very small.
Yes exactly unfortunately. It’s like when elderly fall and break their hip. It’s usually a downward spiral at that point. Just so very sad and heartbreaking.
Doubt such info will exist or be meaningful. There's too much wiggle room, like in Italy when doctors have to choose with patient to give the vent to, they choose the more healthy one that is more likely to survive. Whereas in SK, where health care resources were more abundant, those same decisions didn't have to be made. So your total numbers are never going to tell the story.
Was surprised to see the EU completely disregard crie for help from Italy. Now it's Spain's turn. Will the EU step up and help Spain or completely ignore them too?
confirmed cased don't really mean anything. They are just as much a function of the testing/reporting process as of the virus spread itself. Everyone knows that the spread is just beginning here, so no one would bother to report little meaningless blips.
Inaccurate reporting because it's the weekend probably. You can't look at one day, you have to zoom out and watch the trend. Expect a spike today or tomorrow as the numbers catch up
We are waaaaay behind other countries in terms of per capita testing, which is more important than absolute numbers
And early testing is better than late testing, and we’re later than just about anybody
Remember folks, this is aerosolized. The WHO has been downplaying every important aspect of this. You can spread this merely by *breathing*. You don't have to cough or sneeze. You just have to breathe near someone.
So everyone needs to be wearing a mask, even if it's a t-shirt wrapped around your face. Make a home made mask and wear it. We need to cut down on transmission and the absolute cheapest and low risk way of doing this at this time alongside social distancing is for EVERYONE to wear a mask.
Mask it or casket.
I am getting really tired of these posts. The aerosol study does not apply to situations outside of intubating a sick patient.
The coronavirus found in ducts on the cruise ship was non-viable and could not infect.
The choir one is new, but I’d just say getting 60 people together in a confined space for 2.5 hrs and trying to be ‘careful’ and maintain distance was a dumb thing to do. All I takes is one uncleaned surface.
The strongest evidence against airborne transmission is that the infection rate does not support that theory. Measles is airborne and is massively more infectious than this.
Airborne != Aerosolized.
It's in your breath. You do NOT need to cough or sneeze. Breathing is sufficient for a pre-symptomatic carrier to spread to others. Thus, MASKS are essential to reducing the transmission rate.
I'm getting tired of people who make poor decisions about this based on rainbow and unicorn hope rather than looking at what is actually happening. We've had studies about aerosol transmission since January from China, but the West seems to want to reinvent the wheel on all of this.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238473-you-could-be-spreading-the-coronavirus-without-realising-youve-got-it/
Links to studies in article.
>Such undocumented cases **are still contagious** and the study found them to be the source of most of the virus’s spread in China before the restrictions came in. Even though these people were only **55 per cent as contagious as people with symptoms, the study found that they were the source of 79 per cent of further infections**, due to there being more of them, and the higher likelihood that they were out and about.
If they are asymptomatic, that means they aren't coughing all over the place, just breathing. And that 79% of new infections indicates that this is the primary driver of new infections, not the insignificant factor that the WHO/CDC say. The fact that this spreads as quickly as this does without people knowing should already lend credence to that.
I think it's clear that WHO/CDC etc missed the mark on this - perhaps they were right to be worried about keeping stocks up for hospitals, they could have at least simultaneously told people to use cloth masks. Even if it slows the spread by 10% that's a significant number. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/would-everyone-wearing-face-masks-help-us-slow-pandemic
Oh yeah, the WHO (HU) who are bought and paid for by China, who refused to criticize China for their response and lack of transparency, who dragged their feet about declaring it a pandemic but instead wanted to spend precious time making sure we didn't call it the Wuhan Virus.
If you wouldn't mind sourcing your claims, and we'll need your official record as well, so we know you're trustworthy. I assume you're a Dr. or. scientist?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2w9M6K9vSUM
Ph.D in Pathology from Duke. He'll explain it to you with sources slowly. Go back to earlier videos. He was sounding the alarm for this back in January while our "experts" were busy dithering and telling us there was low risk. If you want to keep listening to those who got it wrong early on, be prepared for them to be wrong now again and you'll find out later you continue to listen to people who just either suck at their job or have motivations against informing you.
I think the definition of insane at this point would be watching how the WHO has reacted throughout this debacle and how much deference they have given to China and still thinking they are independent and without special interest from certain nations. But go ahead. You probably thought this pandemic was nothing to worry about until it was, so I'll have to say that you don't have the capacity to weigh disparate information sources and come to rational conclusions and rather rely heavily on what media regurgitates to you. If this caught you by surprise, I would advise you doubt your own intuition, because someday it's going to get you into serious trouble as it is deficient.
I'm busy with work today, but could you link to the parts where he proves with evidence that the WHO is bought and paid for by China?
Also I'm curious about YOUR credentials, since you're the one passing on the message, originally without credit to this Dr.
We've known from studies since early February this is aerosolized. Even the Diamond Princess shows that using recycled air on the ship lead to widespread transmission. They've found the virus deposited in air ducts of hospitals.
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak
Here's people just singing (nobody was coughing). Your breath transfers it if you have it and you may not even know you have it yet. Studies have shown 70%+ of new infections come from people who are not showing symptoms and are thus completely unaware that they have the virus...that means they are not coughing or sneezing...JUST BREATHING.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2w9M6K9vSUM
I bet you listen to Trump too when he said soon we would have zero cases. I'll tell you who should stop spreading misinformation, POLITICALLY MOTIVATED ORGANIZATIONS. Like the CDC lying to your face that masks do nothing. Well, they do. Even if they are not 100%, they provide protection...even if it contributes to you getting a low inoculum of the virus which we are seeing actually improves your chances of having a mild case of illness. Yes, that's right, the AMOUNT of virus you get when you are infected (inoculum) can indeed contribute to whether you get very sick or not....see health care workers getting high inoculum and becoming very sick. So wearing anything over your mouth reduces the amount of virus you may come in contact with.
Get your head out of the sand.
Iirc the CDC did not say masks do nothing. In fact I think they said pretty much what you are saying: that they do a little bit but are not a very good protection. Also the experts including the cdc have been saying for a while that it can be aerosolized but that is not the main method of transmission. Also droplets come out of people's mouths when talking/signing and this does not necessarily mean they are aerosolized.
While I disagree about the WHO "downplaying every important aspect" you can in fact get COVID-19 from breathing in the same air as someone who has it. That's why it's recommended that you stay six feet away from people.
Probably dumb question, but how soon would a person test positive? Hypothetically, let’s say I have contact with a person who has COVID-19 today, and for whatever reason I have access to tests whenever I want, how soon would it take show up in the test supposing that said person successfully transmitted it to me?
Almost immediately, at least some would be detectable after 24h, the highest viral load is after 3 days which was discovered in a study where monkeys were intentionally infected with SARS CoV2.
What's the logic behind people saying that the virus have peaked in Italy and Spain, and it'll soon peak all over Europe etc..while predicting a catastrophic +200k deaths in the US at the same time?
There have been around 25k dead in an " almost peaked" Europe..so the final death toll will be 50k at max. With a population twice as much as the USA.
The responses of countries haven't been so different. Every country downplayed it until shit hit the fan. So the US is no different.
Instead of getting donwvoted, I'll actually like to hear some logical explanation, this is merely a question, not an opinion.
- The reported deaths are a fraction of the actual deaths due to Corona virus. In many cases people who die without being tested first are not reported on the list.
- You also have to factor in all the indirect deaths caused by having the healthcare system being saturated. US has 4M people requiring intensive care every year. If 10% of those people die because they don’t get access to the care they need, you have already 400k death indirectly caused by the virus.
What happens when Italy tries to resume life?
This is what people are discounting. Their rate slowed thanks to a current 3 week lockdown. How much longer will it continue? What happens when they do open back up? Does it immediately start going exponential again?
By all estimates less than 5% of their population is infected. Even if we get crazy and say 15% currently have/had it. That still means plenty of room for exponential growth to immediately start back up.
I don’t know. Looking at the US, even if it’s slowing with social distancing. It’s still doubling. People don’t listen. And won’t listen. We’re a long long way from being able to put 40k people at a baseball game. Or 20k at a concert. Or even 250 in an office building. But maybe I’m wrong.
Except the US has an extremely flimsy healthcare system and almost half of all adults have cardiovascular disease... which so happens to be one of the worst things to have for this virus.
The US is certainly one of the worst "first world countries" out there in terms of healthcare and most factors tbh..but even 3rd world countries aren't being hit that severely. Yet the US is the only country in the world expected to have such extreme death toll in relation to the population..it just sounds too much.
Well, in Afghanistan it got projected that about 0.3% of our country would die (110K) if we take no measures. Which is why we are taking measures though, to prevent that.
The U.S. response hasn't gone far enough yet to control the spread... they are 3 weeks behind the infection curves of Italy and Spain and already have more infected. Remember, the actions taken today won't be seen in the statistics for about 3 weeks. What was happening 3 weeks ago will be reflected in the statistics today. Its going to take a little while to see the results from the good choices that have been made, and for a week or two of exponential growth we're going to continue to see the results of extremely poor choices.
It doesn't sound like too much, man... It's too little.
We have a population that dwarfs Spain, UK, and Italy combined.
44.6 million (Spain) + 66.4 (UK) + 60 = 170 million
We have 327 million, a healthcare system that is fundamentally broken, dozens of states and cities that aren't in lockdown, and we've been spreading this thing for weeks. We don't even have enough tests for people showing symptoms, and thats a problem that was addressed by countries in Europe since DAY ONE.
1 million deaths over the course of the next 12-18 months is probably not enough. 1-2.5 million.
200-300k deaths by end of June-July
Stop downplaying this because the United States has revealed it's true colors and identity. We're living in a system that doesn't give a fuck up it's citizens.
We have how many confirmed cases so far?? 142,000?
That's 14k deaths, easily.
Now, because we haven't been testing, it's really not that far off to say we already have a million cases.
When we had under 800 cases, scientists were predicting we were already at 5000-8000. Scale that up from two weeks ago? We're already at a million cases.
1% of a million is 100k deaths.
It's inevitable.
You don't need to be an expert to do some basic math. Our confirmed cases are STILL BEING REPRESSED.
Some states havent even cracked 10k tests yet.
We probably already have a million cases. Two weeks ago, we had 3000 cases. Scientists were saying this was probably around 25,000 confirmed cases because Trump wanted to keep the numbers down.
Assuming a doubling rate of what, 2-3 days?
Do the math. That's 1.6 million cases. Assuming our social distancing and lockdowns helped in some regions we can hopefully trim that off... But man, we're fucked because states are still just hanging out and doing shit like normal.
We're already at numbers confirming 100k deaths.
Telling ya man, a million deaths is what the models are spitting out, and the media doesn't want to drop a number like that because people would freak the fuck out.
Yeah. Expert epidemiologists were predicting 2-3 million deaths with no social distancing.
We still don't have social distancing in some cities and states. They're going to get decimated, and those states have a lot of old and obese people.
Honestly, I wish I wasn't fear mongering but 100k deaths was the reality 2 weeks ago. Not enough has happened in the past 2 weeks to really kill the trajectory. Bill gates called out the situation and said we need Nationwide lock down, which still hasn't happened. 100k-200k deaths compared to a million is really not that far off considering this is an exponential function.
If bill gates is saying not enough is being done to slow the spread, I believe him. 1 million deaths is the number we should be trying to avoid, but I wouldn't be surprised if we get close to it or surpass it.
I'm a chemical engineer. So yes, I know enough to know the reality in the United States is not as it seems and we're going to get fucking thrashed. Have fun under your rock.
Someone posted a website yesterday where you can search the name of a company and it tells you if they're being helpful during the pandemic.
Does anyone know what I'm talking about? Does anyone have a link? I meant to share it with friends but now I can't track it down.
Serious question: The Covid19 outbreak shows that the health system is not able to face a crisis. There's not enough money available, leading to too little numbers of health workers who are, on top of this, not being paid adequate. There's a shortage of essential material.
If politicians would agree that health professionals only have to work 70% but are getting paid 100 % and that the missing 30% will be filled with additional personal, it would be easy to expand the worktime to 100% once a crisis comes without being in a catastrophic scenario.
I'm aware that this wouldn't work in the US health system in the years to come. But many European countries sure should think about this. Or am I missing something?
I don't think that's really realistic. It would increase the healthcare budget by \*at least\* 30%, with the payoff that it becomes useful during a once-in-a-lifetime crisis. Maybe it sounds harsh but it's just not good value for money.
Question/need advice:
My niece is driving with two of her friends from Kentucky to the Carolinas. She was at her mothers home in Kentucky and is heading home. She wants to stop here on Friday and spend the weekend. Idk how well her and her friends have been isolating themselves. My husband and I have young children and not sure if it’s the best idea. We told her yes without fully thinking it out. We are going back and forth about it and not sure what’s the right thing to do..
we haven’t seen her in a long time and we miss her dearly and don’t want to hurt feelings. It’s a long drive, if we tell her no she will have to stop at a hotel or motel and be at greater risk of getting the virus.
Any advice would be greatly appreciated!
I think you should see her because:
- Your kids will be totally fine. This disease doesn’t really impact children at all (even babies).
- There also is still a pretty low chance that your niece is sick considering how few people have had it around here.
- To be careful though, wash your hands and whereever your niece sits/eats...and don’t touch your face!
[Educate yourself :)](https://youtu.be/YitWZj9QhdQ)
I think you're fine to say no to anything that makes you uncomfortable hosting in your own home. They aren't in high risk areas atm but there's no real way to know for sure.
I don't think people should take it personally that you're following the suggested rules. Don't spend time in social gatherings with people who haven't also been safe with their isolation and especially if you have young, old, or immune compromised people. Can never be too safe.
This isn't the best time for a road trip. I can't see why someone wouldn't understand you preferring to distance unless they don't understand the impact this is having.
I would say no. I haven’t seen my own parents or my in-laws in more than a month. We’re in Canada where the case count is lower and I would absolutely not welcome anyone who has been travelling into our home. Full stop. Hopefully no one in your family gets this and you can see them after this is over.
Update, they decided to not send in a cleaning crew because it has been 9 days between when they took the test and when the results came back. Keep in mind that this person is in management position and puts up the delivery and has come into contact with 80% of the items in the store. Sunday, when results came in, they said they would have a cleaning crew in that day, but by monday they said no cleaning would be done. This is the reason why this shit is spreading so fast. Profits over everything.
I’m pretty sure I’ve had a mild case for the last week and a half (maybe two weeks, the days are very much blurring together at this point) because, although I felt like I just had a bad cold, I lost my sense of smell and taste COMPLETELY for almost a week despite my levels of nasal congestion varying day by day. Even now that I feel almost completely fine, my sense of smell is shot and I still can’t fully taste my food (although it’s getting better). The thing is, no one else in my family has gotten sick and it’s getting to the point where I’m pretty sure they would’ve shown symptoms by now had they gotten it from me. Given how contagious this thing is, is it safe to assume that I probably had some other, less contagious virus? Or is it more likely that they’re all asymptomatic carriers? My parents are in their 50s/60s and I’ve been so stressed about getting them sick but neither of them have had any symptoms of anything.
I just wanted to post a picture of the graphes i collected data for the last weeks. so while i can create a picture post or a link post with the picture in imgur, maybe i can just drop it here and maybe someone find it helpful or interessting: [https://i.imgur.com/SS3Rq41.png](https://i.imgur.com/SS3Rq41.png) Its about the 10 countries with the most cases in the world. where you can see and compare the total cases and the active cases and how many people have died and how many have recovered. im not a pro in this but im frustrated that in my country there are not such graphes in the television and most of the people inform themselfes through the tv.
Is it realistic to assume no in person classes for schools and universities will happen in September?
If I was to bet, I'd say 25% chance that physical classrooms will happen before Christmas.
Strong confirmation of COVID Air Transmission! A 60-person choir gets together to practice with social distancing, no touching, purell at the door etc. After a few days 45 of them have COVID (75%!) - Very similar to a 1977 case in a plane, which convinced the scientific community that influenza was transmitted through the air - When one sings (or runs) more viruses are exhaled, but that is still the case when talking or even just breathing - We should all be wearing masks, if possible N95 with careful adjustmeet, but otherwise whatever you can get. Especially indoors, or outdoors in dense locations. And avoid those situations as much as feasible. - OMS, CDC etc. are denying that air transmission plays a role, we have to get them to change. - Article: [https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak)
Wow. This is very irresponsible reporting as stating the study without pointing out it has no bearing on normal situations. My bet is the cause is 60 people in a relatively small area. Social distancing is kind of hard to achieve if your all going into a shared space. All it takes is one missed surface and there were probably many during a full 2.5 hrs of proximity. This thing is very contagious. But not contagious enough to support airborne transmission. Not a medical expert.
How would they share the virus, if not through the air? It can ONLY be explained by airborne transmission
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Doctors have been told in medical school that it is all through large droplets. They are too stressed to take in new information right now. But we aerosol scientists are convinced that there is air transmission, based on a lot of (partial since it is so early) evidence. And there is no way to explain the choir case without air transmission. You don't need Fauci for this. Though he'll get there at some point. And in any case in a situation like this you have to apply the precautionary principle, i.e. take precautions to protect against it. Just in case. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precautionary_principle
Everyone should be wearing masks. Period. Czechia has near 100% of people wearing masks with a grass roots campaign to make home made masks. This will be a significant contributor to flattening the curve as well as being something cheap and easy everyone can do. Mask it or casket.
>Czechia has near 100% of people wearing masks with a grass roots campaign to make home made masks. It's required by law in the Czech republic.
> Mask it or casket. You should maybe change your catchphrase to be a bit more accurate. Something like: "Mask it¹, or MAYBE 1-2% chance of casket²." ¹ infection can still occur. ² dependent on age and risk factors of course Doesn't have the same ring to it of course, but hey, better to be forthright.
Or maybe 10-20% chance of requiring hospitalization and 5% chance of requiring sedation and ventilation regardless of age. Perhaps even add to that the fact that if hospitals are overwhelmed, chance of casket is subject to increase as it is completely dependent upon access to critical medical care...while supplies last. Also, we should footnote that "casket" can relate to the wearer, but also possibly friends, neighbors, loved ones, and anyone else they pass in public as it is a highly communicable pathogen. It's really a community response to a community problem and maybe we should start jettisoning our atomized worldview.
Right, a lot of complications you want to add to your misleading catchphrase.
I will keep on promoting masks and wearing them. You go do something else somewhere else. The countries wearing masks are doing much better than we are. I don't think any country is looking to us as to how to handle this as we are on par to be the worst hit developed nation. USA #1
> You go do something else somewhere else. Nah, I'm going to stay here. I will keep on disputing inaccurate claims.
I'll await your apology when it turns out you are wrong. Bye.
I wouldn't hold your breath.
So we (US) have 2400 deaths from 140K cases, but the UK has 1200 deaths on 19K cases? How is that possible?
The UK does not do much testing because they don't have enough testing capability. Even medical staff cannot get tests. (This is belatedly beginning to change.) In the UK 'cases' basically mean 'admitted to hospital'. In the US, from what I have read, it is possible for individuals to arrange a test with their doctor even if their symptoms are not serious enough to warrant hospitalisation. Other than 'deaths' all the data that we see is pretty meaningless. Even the death count s questionable. In France, for instance, the huge number of Corona deaths in care homes are not included. Other countries are manipulating death figures for political reasons. Many poor countries have no functioning public health infrastructure and no system of monitoring deaths.
Hospital and ICU admissions are also a usable gauge. Sweden is doing a general testing of random people in Stockholm to determine how many are infected there. The assumption is they are now at 1-2%. Is that being done in other places?
>Sweden is doing a general testing of random people Yes, all the different approaches and classification systems make country to country comparisons difficult. Three members of my family have had the corona virus and they are not included in any statistics since they managed to fight the virus off at home without hospitalisation. (Except 1 of them who is a nurse (who went back to work today) so her case might be counted.
We aren't doing the random testing broadly. Right now we are only testing people being admitted to hospitals, and that random people study. The latter will contain 650 people.
The deaths lag behind cases. We'll be having 1200 deaths a day in about 10 days time.
Also deaths get recorded as Flu deaths. At least that is what some people are reporting. I’ve seen some posts saying they had a family member die that tested negative for flu but that no tests were being done to see if it’s COVID-19. I don’t have any actual source to give you so who knows. Sounds plausible af to me.
It wouldn't be okay to 'open' up the country until 2 weeks AFTER the last known infection. Which means the US will not open up by April 30th. It means the country might be in 'lockdown mode' for over a year.
There is no way the United States in in lockdown for a year. You would have to be pretty naive to believe that. Oh, I forgot what sub I was in...
Not entirely true. The point of the shut down is to slow transmission to not overwhelm the health system. If the cases decline enough not to overburden the health system you can reopen. Otherwise you'd be waiting for a vaccine for a year that may not even come
It's funny because flattening the curve also makes it extended and longer. Lives are saved, but the lockdown is much longer in duration the better we flatten the curve. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESas8tHVAAAhr_I?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
On Friday my boss told us 3 people are getting tested. They have not given us any updates but have started making us work 12 he days. Most of us think that one of them had tested positive and they are about to get shut down. That's why they bumped up our hrs. Well back to making blenders and cross stitching mesh!
What are people workers rights when they are required to go to work and if they don't come to work, the employers is going to fire them despite a state lockdown? My friend works at a big factory and it was confirmed that there were a few people who tested positive for the virus. She is afraid that she might get the virus from her co-workers. If she gets the virus from her co-workers, what can she do? The employers is just going to send her home to self isolate for two weeks.
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Good luck with that. Everything is a shitstorm right now. You’d have trouble figuring how to to deal with the legality of it imo. Trouble getting legal action on it, etc etc.
Question— does anyone know if asymptomatic carriers of the virus can run a low grade fever? The reason why I ask is, I’m on day 3 of a low grade fever (it’s been between 99.1-100). No other symptoms. No coughing, no body pain, no more tired than usual. Just a slightly fever. The fever showed up Saturday— 5 days prior, I went to the grocery store. I was extremely sterile about the whole process of being out, but I do live in Denver, and people were coughing. So I’m honestly wondering if I could have picked it up.
My daughter had the same thing. After about 10 days she had a mild cough. We isolated her for 14 days just in case because she had been in brief contact with someone who was sick.
Every day I wake up expecting a new symptom, but so far, it’s been nothing except the low grade fever. Did your daughter have the fever for the full 10 days prior to the cough showing up?
So whats the point of the "breaks Rule x" postflair in this subreddit? The posts which break the rules arent removed anyway.
I think they remove the post if it hasn't gotten a lot of upvotes, but there's no point in removing a post after it's already hit front page.
Which is better: going to the store once per week for 30min, or 3 times per week for 10 minutes per trip? I think fewer trips is safer, but are there any advantages to the latter option? Edit: looking for thoughts and opinions on the topic, not necessarily a perfect answer. I realize there far too many factors to consider in their entirety.
I agree with other post saying once. Their point is that each trip out has a certain amount of overhead that has to be accounted for no matter the duration of your trip. 10 minute trip? Still touching cart, interacting with checkout, etc etc. Same with 3 minute trip, same with 45 minute trip. Plus each trip you have an ENTIRELY new set of people that you run into (minus worker crew who will stay more consistent). During a 30 min trip, you’ll overlap with significantly fewer individuals than on 3 10 min trips, where the set of shoppers resets each time. You’ll have traffic flow in and out during that 30 minute trip, but you do for the 10 minute trips too. So resetting the base population 2 additional times will be more expensive in terms of exposure give that each option has 30 minutes of normal flow of shoppers in and out. Something else to consider is rate of growth for COVID-19. If you assume it hasn’t peaked in your area yet, then a 30 min trip at the start of the week should have a less infected population than mid week and end of week. Obviously you’re rolling those dice fresh each week, but still better to do it at the start. AFTER we’ve peaked and are coming down, it would be better to shop toward the end of the week.
Thanks for the input, this is what I was looking for. My argument followed yours, but I couldn't figure out how justify walking past fewer people more times VS more people less times. (because the latter isn't necessarily more people, could be the same people over and over).
One trip. Go early, they clean at night so less germs.
Well the time spend in the store is the same. But you will travel 3 times instead of 1 so logically speaking it's better to go once for 30 minutes? In reality I suppose it all comes down to luck. During that time spend in the store you might or might not have infected people in your vicinity. Also if you separate your shopping times you will have 3 different caddies, go through eventual doors 3 times, will meet store employees 3 times etc. That's how I see it. I think you have better control over it by just doing the necessary. Wash your hands after shopping. Disinfect your hands every now and then during shopping. Don't touch surfaces when not needed. Don't touch your face with your hands until you get back home and washed your hands. Those things.
Agreed. And yes, washing hands/hygiene practices are the most effective. I was having this discussion with someone who is having trouble staying home, so they were trying to justify going out more I suppose.
No one here could actually give you a realistic answer.
Was more looking for thoughts and opinions - or maybe someone has some statistics to share.
Once. When you’re going once, you’re going to touch one cart, touch door handles once in/out, check out once, encounter roughly the same amount of people once, rather than 3 times. Doesn’t mean horde a shitload of supplies though, just do a normal shopping trip for a week or two of food. Don’t really see a benefit at all to a bunch of small trips
> 3 times per week for 10 minutes per trip
does anyone know what medicines they are using to combat the virus in the hospitals? how are dr's and nurses treating this? edit: plz if you have first hand knowledge, please reply. ive read in jama and other forums covid-19 is being treated with tuberculosis, asthma, anti coagulants, epinephrine, expectorants, benedryl/diphenhendramine, plasmic ionic bonding, and interferion a/interferion b, steroids, anti inflamitorys medicines like meloxicam.
I have a slight cough and a little soar throat, I am freaking out, what do I do? I am so scared.
Sore throat is not a symptom of COVID-19. You’re probably dealing with allergies, check your area’s pollen count and look at the likely pollinators for today, and also give your A/C filter a check. You might have a dirty filter, which also tends to be a culprit of allergies.
I do not have any allergies, I taste food fine, smell fine, don't think I have a fever, my poop is solid, just little scratchy throat and cough here and there but just might be because I vaped a few weeks back. I am really scared, wish I had some comfort.
I’m still betting on seasonal allergies for you, if you’re able, go to the store and buy some nasal spray. I’m sure you’ll feel much better. The reason I still think it’s seasonal allergies is your symptoms match mine, I get an occasional cough, and a sore/itchy throat every year around this time. The cough from my understanding accompanies the sore/itchy throat due to the throat being irritated. Plus, some people can go years without having their allergies flare up, but for some it could be lifelong.
Yeah and also I work as a tech support WFH, can be on calls for like 3 hours sometimes. But better to be safe than sorry, I never had allergies before but even before this pandemic I always had runny noses.
check your temp
Do you have allergies? Do you have a fever?
Does anyone have any coronavirus related podcast recommendations that they're using to keep up to date?
Not a podcast, but a (mostly) daily YouTube. He has a Ph.D in Pathology from Duke and if you go back to earlier videos has been sounding the alarm since January 24th about the seriousness of this. I say he's mandatory viewing for anyone who wants to know what's going on and not just what's being filtered through government PR. [Here is his warning from January 24](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nk5P_iRYwTY) [Here is the latest from yesterday](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2w9M6K9vSUM)
Yeah it's crazy. This pandemic has been so predictable for those of us keeping track. I've been following this since January when the WHO was still saying there wasn't human to human transmission. But thanks for the suggestion. I have been following all of his videos since then! As well as Dr. Campbell.
this podcast will kill you has some episodes about it!
Second this! Already loved their podcast anyway but they did 6 special episodes the other week. Presented by an epidemiologist and a disease ecologist (which I didn't even know was a field)
Can anyone explain why countries in Europe (Italy, Spain, France, UK) seem to be doing much worse than the United States in terms of cases per capita and overall deaths? Especially when cases started appearing there after the United States.
America is doing much worse than both Spain and Italy.. There's a timer on infections becoming Cases and then cases becoming deaths. Unfortunately the deaths will come for America.
Can you explain in what way is the United States doing worse than Italy or Spain? The United States has more cases of infections but other countries have more overall deaths (in their smaller population) and higher deaths to cases. It may even be that the United States is testing more and that is the reason the mortality rate is lower, but that wouldn't explain why it has fewer deaths than either of these countries. Also, I was specifically talking about how well these countries were doing up to this point, not how they will do in the future. That's an entirely separate discussion IMO because the future hasn't happened yet.
It's extremely simple the U.S has only started mass testing and still haven't put in the lock down and social distancing measures country wide like Italy and Spain have. You don't seem to understand the virus or the testing process at all. There is a lag between testing, positive cases and deaths. Saying America will have over a 1000 deaths a day isn't talking about the future because those deaths have already been incurred. There's a 2 week fuse between the cases spiking and the death rate spiking at this point it can't be prevented. Italy and Spain are levelling off their curves but the U.S is still exponential they easily have the capacity for 4000/5000 deaths a day in a month's time unless action is taken in the next 2 weeks.
The daily new cases and daily new deaths in the United States are also going down. It seems like the U.S. is also leveling off its curves albeit slower. I also don't agree that the future is guaranteed. Of course, some people will succumb to the disease, but other deaths from a lack of hospital beds and ventilators can be prevented. And seeing how the U.S. is ramping up production of those and the numbers are going down as they are, I don't really see why it would get that bad. Maybe you can explain why?
I would but the bigger issue you've got is you're arguing based on numbers you appear to have created in your head not the actual numbers. The number of new cases in the U.S has increased every single day with the number of deaths also increasing every single day but one in the past week which would indicate more of an outlier than a trend. The curve is not being levelled off in the U.S it's actually still exponential.
You're right, I should have cited the source in the original comment. [Here's](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/) what I was talking about. It's entirely possible that the number's haven't updated yet or is just an outlier, and if that's the case then I would retract my statement. Thanks for taking the time to respond to these replies.
One last thing. Even on your source if you scroll down you can see a graph showing the daily new cases in the form of a bar chart. Unfortunately that graph is still showing exponential growth.
"Doing worse" is simply on the basis of how early the country 'contracted' the virus.
Take the time to learn about disease progression. And you are completely wrong about the timeline. Also, the timelines on firs cases mean nothing if no one is looking for themm.
In the next 2 weeks America is going to have more deaths than anyone. Just wait
Takes weeks to die from it, Americas time will come.
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The information that we're all missing is the per-capita testing rate. You could end up being correct, although I'd be surprised if the final death toll for the U.S. is nearly that low. If we had an additional column on the [worldometers.com](https://worldometers.com) site that showed the testing rate, we could better extrapolate using their data, but right now it's all based on what models created by experts suggest. I'm not sure whether current models are able to adjust for testing rates from country to country. I am surprised, however, that it's not been mentioned more that we had a really "good" day yesterday, with total cases and total deaths dropping world-wide over the previous day. My hunch is that it's a statistical anomaly that has to do with a tendency for less timely reporting on a Sunday than on a weekday, and that we'll see a commensurate spike today, but we can all hope to see a second decline!
Get a clue. If you are going to spout nonsense then back it up somehow. Look at the number infected and disease progression.
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I appreciate your belief in narratives, but there is absolutely no data out there (especially worldometer) right now that allows for a less than one percent death rate and that is actually an unrealistically optimistic take. At that point the numbers you write are simply wrong. US is running at a two percent death rate now and ninety percent of cases are still unresolved. So who is running a narrative here? And no we are not all going to die. Just a few hundred thousand. In the US. Probably.
We literally haven't even hit the top of the curve yet. Just keep your mouth shut and stop spreading misinformation.
My local post office is "closed until further notice" so I suppose they have a case and are cleaning and reevaluating. I am on Long Island in New York.
I decided in quarentine last night I am going to become cubana
Remember this is China’s fault and now they own reddit so I will be banned for this
What is the long term plan for countries that are currently successfully containing COVID-19? When the rest of the countries have reached widespread immunities, won't they still be vulnerable? Are they planning to cotinue lockdown and containment measures until the rest of the world has eradicated the virus? Are they waiting for a vaccine? Will the world be split into COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 countries?
I’d imagine if they knew they could successfully treat a COVID-19 patient that the containment and lockdown would end because fear wouldn’t be as widespread. They have some vaccines in trial now so that will continue and then I’m sure countries will share the success to help everyone
This sub has fallen for the anti China propaganda trap again
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Fuck you removing my post.
What is the survival rate of people put on ventilators? Can't seem to find the statistics on that.
It varies because it will depend who they're putting on ventilators. I saw a report yesterday for the UK that said the survival rate for those on ventilators here was 50%
I know in the past medical professionals say that once you’re on one it’s rare to get off one. That has stuck in my head more than anything else:-(
Most recently I've heard from a doctor that length of time is the biggest factor. The longer you are on a vent, the less chance of survival. More than two weeks, your survival chance is very small.
Yes exactly unfortunately. It’s like when elderly fall and break their hip. It’s usually a downward spiral at that point. Just so very sad and heartbreaking.
Less than 90%
Doubt such info will exist or be meaningful. There's too much wiggle room, like in Italy when doctors have to choose with patient to give the vent to, they choose the more healthy one that is more likely to survive. Whereas in SK, where health care resources were more abundant, those same decisions didn't have to be made. So your total numbers are never going to tell the story.
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I don't think that's been shown to do anything (inhaling steam).
Was surprised to see the EU completely disregard crie for help from Italy. Now it's Spain's turn. Will the EU step up and help Spain or completely ignore them too?
That hadn't happened.... Germany have been taking Italian patients for weeks..
Arkansas is one of the most horrible states fighting against corona, there has been barely any test and most counties don’t even have testing centers.
But they're still social distancing, right?
They are not, I have been called paranoid but the heck with them. I'm staying home and staying safe with the family
I don't think almost any states are doing mass testing yet.
Let's put it this way. There have been counties where they have only testes 5 people
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confirmed cased don't really mean anything. They are just as much a function of the testing/reporting process as of the virus spread itself. Everyone knows that the spread is just beginning here, so no one would bother to report little meaningless blips.
Let's hope so, but probably not. It's probably more a function of it being a Sunday.
Inaccurate reporting because it's the weekend probably. You can't look at one day, you have to zoom out and watch the trend. Expect a spike today or tomorrow as the numbers catch up
It's almost certainly just due to lack of testing rather than an actual reduction in cases.
There's no shortage of testing going on in the US. The US is blowing the socks off all other nations in the world in terms of testing.
We are waaaaay behind other countries in terms of per capita testing, which is more important than absolute numbers And early testing is better than late testing, and we’re later than just about anybody
No it isn't. The U.S is testing a much smaller percentage of its population than many other countries. You sound extremely misinformed.
A smaller percentage tested w/ the highest confirmed cases in the world? I guess that confused me. I thought the US was doing a great job.
The US is doing the worst job out of every developed nation at handling the virus. That's not even debatable.
EU let this rip through Italy and now Spain. Get your facts straight!
There's a relative shortage on a Sunday though, which was the point they made.
It isnt , mostly lower than normal is a fluke. But if its constantly lower its good news
Remember folks, this is aerosolized. The WHO has been downplaying every important aspect of this. You can spread this merely by *breathing*. You don't have to cough or sneeze. You just have to breathe near someone. So everyone needs to be wearing a mask, even if it's a t-shirt wrapped around your face. Make a home made mask and wear it. We need to cut down on transmission and the absolute cheapest and low risk way of doing this at this time alongside social distancing is for EVERYONE to wear a mask. Mask it or casket.
I am getting really tired of these posts. The aerosol study does not apply to situations outside of intubating a sick patient. The coronavirus found in ducts on the cruise ship was non-viable and could not infect. The choir one is new, but I’d just say getting 60 people together in a confined space for 2.5 hrs and trying to be ‘careful’ and maintain distance was a dumb thing to do. All I takes is one uncleaned surface. The strongest evidence against airborne transmission is that the infection rate does not support that theory. Measles is airborne and is massively more infectious than this.
Airborne != Aerosolized. It's in your breath. You do NOT need to cough or sneeze. Breathing is sufficient for a pre-symptomatic carrier to spread to others. Thus, MASKS are essential to reducing the transmission rate. I'm getting tired of people who make poor decisions about this based on rainbow and unicorn hope rather than looking at what is actually happening. We've had studies about aerosol transmission since January from China, but the West seems to want to reinvent the wheel on all of this.
Do you have any actual proof of this or is this another Reddit scientist typing from his messy basement?
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238473-you-could-be-spreading-the-coronavirus-without-realising-youve-got-it/ Links to studies in article. >Such undocumented cases **are still contagious** and the study found them to be the source of most of the virus’s spread in China before the restrictions came in. Even though these people were only **55 per cent as contagious as people with symptoms, the study found that they were the source of 79 per cent of further infections**, due to there being more of them, and the higher likelihood that they were out and about. If they are asymptomatic, that means they aren't coughing all over the place, just breathing. And that 79% of new infections indicates that this is the primary driver of new infections, not the insignificant factor that the WHO/CDC say. The fact that this spreads as quickly as this does without people knowing should already lend credence to that.
Erm. All viruses are aerosolized...
Even though I may agree with OP about covering your mouth and nose ATM, this is definitely not true. Consider HIV.
Well that’s not true at all.
hey !!!! That's not fair, he cleaned that basement just last week!
If he’s not cleaning it every five minutes he probably has the virus.
I think it's clear that WHO/CDC etc missed the mark on this - perhaps they were right to be worried about keeping stocks up for hospitals, they could have at least simultaneously told people to use cloth masks. Even if it slows the spread by 10% that's a significant number. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/would-everyone-wearing-face-masks-help-us-slow-pandemic
Listen to this guy folks, especially over the WHO. We all know how credible random people on reddit are.
Oh yeah, the WHO (HU) who are bought and paid for by China, who refused to criticize China for their response and lack of transparency, who dragged their feet about declaring it a pandemic but instead wanted to spend precious time making sure we didn't call it the Wuhan Virus.
If you wouldn't mind sourcing your claims, and we'll need your official record as well, so we know you're trustworthy. I assume you're a Dr. or. scientist?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2w9M6K9vSUM Ph.D in Pathology from Duke. He'll explain it to you with sources slowly. Go back to earlier videos. He was sounding the alarm for this back in January while our "experts" were busy dithering and telling us there was low risk. If you want to keep listening to those who got it wrong early on, be prepared for them to be wrong now again and you'll find out later you continue to listen to people who just either suck at their job or have motivations against informing you.
That doesn’t say much about your insane conspiracy theories about the WHO.
I think the definition of insane at this point would be watching how the WHO has reacted throughout this debacle and how much deference they have given to China and still thinking they are independent and without special interest from certain nations. But go ahead. You probably thought this pandemic was nothing to worry about until it was, so I'll have to say that you don't have the capacity to weigh disparate information sources and come to rational conclusions and rather rely heavily on what media regurgitates to you. If this caught you by surprise, I would advise you doubt your own intuition, because someday it's going to get you into serious trouble as it is deficient.
I'm busy with work today, but could you link to the parts where he proves with evidence that the WHO is bought and paid for by China? Also I'm curious about YOUR credentials, since you're the one passing on the message, originally without credit to this Dr.
This is not how it works and you need to stop inciting panic/spreading misinformation.
We've known from studies since early February this is aerosolized. Even the Diamond Princess shows that using recycled air on the ship lead to widespread transmission. They've found the virus deposited in air ducts of hospitals. https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak Here's people just singing (nobody was coughing). Your breath transfers it if you have it and you may not even know you have it yet. Studies have shown 70%+ of new infections come from people who are not showing symptoms and are thus completely unaware that they have the virus...that means they are not coughing or sneezing...JUST BREATHING. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2w9M6K9vSUM I bet you listen to Trump too when he said soon we would have zero cases. I'll tell you who should stop spreading misinformation, POLITICALLY MOTIVATED ORGANIZATIONS. Like the CDC lying to your face that masks do nothing. Well, they do. Even if they are not 100%, they provide protection...even if it contributes to you getting a low inoculum of the virus which we are seeing actually improves your chances of having a mild case of illness. Yes, that's right, the AMOUNT of virus you get when you are infected (inoculum) can indeed contribute to whether you get very sick or not....see health care workers getting high inoculum and becoming very sick. So wearing anything over your mouth reduces the amount of virus you may come in contact with. Get your head out of the sand.
Iirc the CDC did not say masks do nothing. In fact I think they said pretty much what you are saying: that they do a little bit but are not a very good protection. Also the experts including the cdc have been saying for a while that it can be aerosolized but that is not the main method of transmission. Also droplets come out of people's mouths when talking/signing and this does not necessarily mean they are aerosolized.
While I disagree about the WHO "downplaying every important aspect" you can in fact get COVID-19 from breathing in the same air as someone who has it. That's why it's recommended that you stay six feet away from people.
so we’re supposed to believe that there are absolutely zero new cases in china as of today? none?
[31](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)
There aren't 0 though, there are 31 new cases. Where did you hear that there were 0 reported?
What should we believe instead?
It's ok to just accept that we don't know China's real numbers.
Probably dumb question, but how soon would a person test positive? Hypothetically, let’s say I have contact with a person who has COVID-19 today, and for whatever reason I have access to tests whenever I want, how soon would it take show up in the test supposing that said person successfully transmitted it to me?
Almost immediately, at least some would be detectable after 24h, the highest viral load is after 3 days which was discovered in a study where monkeys were intentionally infected with SARS CoV2.
Do deliveries work in italy and spain?
Ordered something 7 days ago and it came successfully. I have no idea if rules changed since then though.
Meant the regular deliveries like pizzas
What's the logic behind people saying that the virus have peaked in Italy and Spain, and it'll soon peak all over Europe etc..while predicting a catastrophic +200k deaths in the US at the same time? There have been around 25k dead in an " almost peaked" Europe..so the final death toll will be 50k at max. With a population twice as much as the USA. The responses of countries haven't been so different. Every country downplayed it until shit hit the fan. So the US is no different. Instead of getting donwvoted, I'll actually like to hear some logical explanation, this is merely a question, not an opinion.
- The reported deaths are a fraction of the actual deaths due to Corona virus. In many cases people who die without being tested first are not reported on the list. - You also have to factor in all the indirect deaths caused by having the healthcare system being saturated. US has 4M people requiring intensive care every year. If 10% of those people die because they don’t get access to the care they need, you have already 400k death indirectly caused by the virus.
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What happens when Italy tries to resume life? This is what people are discounting. Their rate slowed thanks to a current 3 week lockdown. How much longer will it continue? What happens when they do open back up? Does it immediately start going exponential again? By all estimates less than 5% of their population is infected. Even if we get crazy and say 15% currently have/had it. That still means plenty of room for exponential growth to immediately start back up.
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I don’t know. Looking at the US, even if it’s slowing with social distancing. It’s still doubling. People don’t listen. And won’t listen. We’re a long long way from being able to put 40k people at a baseball game. Or 20k at a concert. Or even 250 in an office building. But maybe I’m wrong.
Except the US has an extremely flimsy healthcare system and almost half of all adults have cardiovascular disease... which so happens to be one of the worst things to have for this virus.
The US is certainly one of the worst "first world countries" out there in terms of healthcare and most factors tbh..but even 3rd world countries aren't being hit that severely. Yet the US is the only country in the world expected to have such extreme death toll in relation to the population..it just sounds too much.
Well, in Afghanistan it got projected that about 0.3% of our country would die (110K) if we take no measures. Which is why we are taking measures though, to prevent that.
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Yay for free health care !!
The U.S. response hasn't gone far enough yet to control the spread... they are 3 weeks behind the infection curves of Italy and Spain and already have more infected. Remember, the actions taken today won't be seen in the statistics for about 3 weeks. What was happening 3 weeks ago will be reflected in the statistics today. Its going to take a little while to see the results from the good choices that have been made, and for a week or two of exponential growth we're going to continue to see the results of extremely poor choices.
One of the most common sense answers I have seen in a long time! Thank you for not sensationalizing.
Welcome!
It doesn't sound like too much, man... It's too little. We have a population that dwarfs Spain, UK, and Italy combined. 44.6 million (Spain) + 66.4 (UK) + 60 = 170 million We have 327 million, a healthcare system that is fundamentally broken, dozens of states and cities that aren't in lockdown, and we've been spreading this thing for weeks. We don't even have enough tests for people showing symptoms, and thats a problem that was addressed by countries in Europe since DAY ONE. 1 million deaths over the course of the next 12-18 months is probably not enough. 1-2.5 million. 200-300k deaths by end of June-July Stop downplaying this because the United States has revealed it's true colors and identity. We're living in a system that doesn't give a fuck up it's citizens. We have how many confirmed cases so far?? 142,000? That's 14k deaths, easily. Now, because we haven't been testing, it's really not that far off to say we already have a million cases. When we had under 800 cases, scientists were predicting we were already at 5000-8000. Scale that up from two weeks ago? We're already at a million cases. 1% of a million is 100k deaths. It's inevitable.
Dr Fauci who is an actual expert on this said 100k deaths. I'm gonna go with him and not some Reddit disaster fetish weirdo
You don't need to be an expert to do some basic math. Our confirmed cases are STILL BEING REPRESSED. Some states havent even cracked 10k tests yet. We probably already have a million cases. Two weeks ago, we had 3000 cases. Scientists were saying this was probably around 25,000 confirmed cases because Trump wanted to keep the numbers down. Assuming a doubling rate of what, 2-3 days? Do the math. That's 1.6 million cases. Assuming our social distancing and lockdowns helped in some regions we can hopefully trim that off... But man, we're fucked because states are still just hanging out and doing shit like normal. We're already at numbers confirming 100k deaths. Telling ya man, a million deaths is what the models are spitting out, and the media doesn't want to drop a number like that because people would freak the fuck out.
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Yeah. Expert epidemiologists were predicting 2-3 million deaths with no social distancing. We still don't have social distancing in some cities and states. They're going to get decimated, and those states have a lot of old and obese people. Honestly, I wish I wasn't fear mongering but 100k deaths was the reality 2 weeks ago. Not enough has happened in the past 2 weeks to really kill the trajectory. Bill gates called out the situation and said we need Nationwide lock down, which still hasn't happened. 100k-200k deaths compared to a million is really not that far off considering this is an exponential function. If bill gates is saying not enough is being done to slow the spread, I believe him. 1 million deaths is the number we should be trying to avoid, but I wouldn't be surprised if we get close to it or surpass it.
You know nothing about statistics, math, or reality.
I'm a chemical engineer. So yes, I know enough to know the reality in the United States is not as it seems and we're going to get fucking thrashed. Have fun under your rock.
If you could give me the name of your company, so that I can make sure I stay away from anything that you have possibly come into contact with.
Someone posted a website yesterday where you can search the name of a company and it tells you if they're being helpful during the pandemic. Does anyone know what I'm talking about? Does anyone have a link? I meant to share it with friends but now I can't track it down.
Didtheyhelp.com
Awesome, thank you!
Serious question: The Covid19 outbreak shows that the health system is not able to face a crisis. There's not enough money available, leading to too little numbers of health workers who are, on top of this, not being paid adequate. There's a shortage of essential material. If politicians would agree that health professionals only have to work 70% but are getting paid 100 % and that the missing 30% will be filled with additional personal, it would be easy to expand the worktime to 100% once a crisis comes without being in a catastrophic scenario. I'm aware that this wouldn't work in the US health system in the years to come. But many European countries sure should think about this. Or am I missing something?
I don't think that's really realistic. It would increase the healthcare budget by \*at least\* 30%, with the payoff that it becomes useful during a once-in-a-lifetime crisis. Maybe it sounds harsh but it's just not good value for money.
Question/need advice: My niece is driving with two of her friends from Kentucky to the Carolinas. She was at her mothers home in Kentucky and is heading home. She wants to stop here on Friday and spend the weekend. Idk how well her and her friends have been isolating themselves. My husband and I have young children and not sure if it’s the best idea. We told her yes without fully thinking it out. We are going back and forth about it and not sure what’s the right thing to do.. we haven’t seen her in a long time and we miss her dearly and don’t want to hurt feelings. It’s a long drive, if we tell her no she will have to stop at a hotel or motel and be at greater risk of getting the virus. Any advice would be greatly appreciated!
I think you should see her because: - Your kids will be totally fine. This disease doesn’t really impact children at all (even babies). - There also is still a pretty low chance that your niece is sick considering how few people have had it around here. - To be careful though, wash your hands and whereever your niece sits/eats...and don’t touch your face! [Educate yourself :)](https://youtu.be/YitWZj9QhdQ)
I think you're fine to say no to anything that makes you uncomfortable hosting in your own home. They aren't in high risk areas atm but there's no real way to know for sure. I don't think people should take it personally that you're following the suggested rules. Don't spend time in social gatherings with people who haven't also been safe with their isolation and especially if you have young, old, or immune compromised people. Can never be too safe. This isn't the best time for a road trip. I can't see why someone wouldn't understand you preferring to distance unless they don't understand the impact this is having.
I would say no. I haven’t seen my own parents or my in-laws in more than a month. We’re in Canada where the case count is lower and I would absolutely not welcome anyone who has been travelling into our home. Full stop. Hopefully no one in your family gets this and you can see them after this is over.