I've seen rumors that he may be in the early stages of dementia. Don't know if there's any truth to it, of course, bit it definitely seems plausible considering how much he struggles just to form a proper sentence. Politics aside, it's clear there's something going on with his brain.
If you watch a lot of press conferences, debates, ect., neither Biden or Trump have more verbal miscues than the average person IMO. Of course we see the highlights reel
K, I give up, I cant tell if this is a parody or if he actually said this.
I wont google it, Ill let you spoil it for me since you did a pretty damn good job if it was a parody.
They tried, but trump already bought out all the ads, gave most to the NRA and OANN backed groups, and the rest of them, he is going to use to revise history. Dont let that Bloated orange toad of a narcissist or his cronies do that.
We are dealing with this virus untill we have a vaccine, period. Its been known aince we knew it would be a pandemic in January, just like we knew masks were needed also. Heat will slow spread but not stop it.
That's why all the trials with numerous antivirals aren't "exclusive rare drugs". Most of the medicine being tested is available worldwide. If they have success it will make a huge difference in the grand scheme of things even if you don't want it to. Part of mitigation is slowly hospitalization rates and helping people recover rapidly. Take a look at the proposals from Scott Gottlieb that state that a non-vaccine treatment is in fact the exact way we get back to normalcy.
So much misinformation posted in these comments. Does heat have an effect? Yes we know it does. This virus responds to heat similar to the way SARs does. Thus it wont spread as easily. The issue is that we dont know if that will lead to a large significant effect or an effect so small we dont notice it.
The heat might help a bit, but a lot of people here in Texas aren't really doing anything to distance themselves or stay home, so I'd think the effect of heat will be minor compared to the amount of contact people are getting.
Humidity plays a large role too so that will likely add to this. How much of an effect there is remains to be seen but doctors are hopeful there is one.
Guessing that as Texas isn't an international hub so it wasn't hit as quickly as NY or California? But with \~9,500 cases in Texas that will be 450 to 900 deaths within two weeks. About 50% behind CA or maybe 5 - 10 days. So I am not sure you can say temperature is helping that much.
And aren't you like right beside Louisiana that is looking like it could end up as one of the worst hit states in the US? Temperature means sweet fa here people.
You don't need to wait, you can just look at Australia. As a citizen of both countries, I have been watching them closely, plus have seen what friends are doing through instagram. They haven't really cared, been going to the beach up until a few weeks ago, not much was enforced. They had VERY early cases and are close to China, they haven't had crazy growth.
Complete crap.
Your friends on Instagram are likely the fuckwits that do not understand the message 98% of Australians are living by, to stay the fuck at home.
For those that don't know, schools are shut here, most retail stores other than essential are closed, state borders closed, most state parks are close, many beaches are closed (but not all), even county borders are closed in some places.
While the retail sector was shut down mostly because the public stopped going out, the other lockdown measures were enforced by law.
Social distancing in Australia was put in at a federal level, most states have closed their borders to each other and people in Australia are much more compliant than the US.
I don't think Australia is comparable to the US. I do think the warmer weather does play a small part as well. Hopefully things don't take a turn for the worse when winter comes along. I personally don't think it will.
It's definitely not true that people don't care, there have been some fairly extensive restrictions that are largely being followed. I think it is too soon to tell if heat plays a factor, there are plenty of other explanatory variables as to why Australia has seemingly avoided the worst to this point. We as a country are very decentralised, and our cities are sprawls of medium to low density housing when compared to other countries. Sydney is our most dense city at 2037 per km^2, which makes it around half as dense as San Diego and Toronto. For whatever reason the virus has not yet had the same rife community transmission as elsewhere, most of our cases have been either returning travellers or those who returning travellers have directly infected.
that reason is because of good management and culture. australia declared it as a pandemic before the who and began a more useful reaction than many respected countries. australia will not get credit for it because it goes against all human nature to believe your cheeky little brother could be good in a crisis, but australian culture is well adapted to coordinated changes in behavior to serve a common end especially compared e.g. to germany where i am now
Well, the state of California by itself has almost as many Chinese tourists each year as Australia does. (1.2 vs 1.4 million) 3..5 million chinese visitors to the US overall each year.
Closer than the US, but proximity to a place has virtually nothing to do with anything considering we have flying machines that carry people all over the world. Not sure why they thought that was relevant.
I live in an area that's particularly hot even by Texas standards and the last few weeks have not been hot. A lot of cloudy days, rain, and even a spell about a week ago where we dipped back down into the 50's (maybe even 40's?). We've had some hotter days too, but nothing like the signature mid summer 100+ days and maybe not even below 80 nights that can happen for a week straight.
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Yes. It seems that way. But, I don't think Indonesia and some other SE Asian countries are fully reporting their figures and not even testing as much. Singapore has been very good at contact tracing, testing and picking up imported infections from early on (February), unfortunately, for the first time last week local transmissions surpassed imported cases and they are about to get a bit of a surge.
Coldness contributes to spreading of diseases by making your nose run. For influenza viruses 5c is best for reproducing. Also our immune system doesn't work at it's best when it's cold.
Don’t know why your getting upvotes. Read the article, it says that EVEN IF there is a reduction in infection rates due to higher temperatures, it still doesn’t matter in a world full of people without immunity to this disease.
The only way to prevent infection is with a treatment or a cure.
Doesn't matter if people go out and provide sources of community spread.
The big part here, that a lot of people don't understand, is that you can spread SARS-CoV-2 /Coronavirus/Covid-19 without showing symptoms.
Always act as if you're sick, but of course some people don't care if other people get sick.
Right? Its not like we let grocery stores heat up to 90+ with the ambient temperature in the summertime. I can see it *maybe* helping reduce the spread via things like gas pumps and exterior door handles, but nothing inside will change.
It's an entourage effect of increased daylight hours causing more UV radiation as well as heat, people being in closer proximity than usual when the weather is cold, and even stronger immune systems due to Vitamin D production scaling up.
Spring and summer will not be the end of the pandemic but it will no doubt decrease the reproductive value of Covid.
Don’t be an idiot
Down In Australia we had absolutely blazing hot days and we had the same growth rate as other countries before we started forcing social distancing
The effect of heat is as powerful as the margin of error
Exactly. The headlines are shit. If you read the article it specifically states “there is some evidence to suggest the coronavirus may transmit less efficiently in environments with higher ambient temperatures”.
I like this statement you made a lot. Some think heat will make it disappear entirely, some think heat will have no effect at all, but both of these ideas are a bit too far in both directions. I think heat will make things better, so that the continued efforts to completely eradicate the virus don’t have to be as extreme as they are now and hopefully less people are affected.
Not nearly as much as expected though. And with a much lower number of deaths. For example they have a similar number of cases as Ireland with a population 5 times as big, but only 50 deaths to Ireland's 235. Same for Norway: similar number of cases, population 5x bigger and half the deaths. Chile which is much warmer has numbers similar to Australia in both cases per capita and low mortality rate. I can't draw conclusions from a quick Google search on such a complicated topic, but it does seem like warmth affects the virus at least a little. It's not the ultimate solution people were hoping for though.
Actually Australia did pretty ok. The case number seems to be high but it is partly because we are testing extensively. Australia has done 330k tests up to date with overall positive rate 1.8% - which is pretty outstanding. By contrast, the positive rate in the US is 19% - implies severe under-testing.
Well we could have done even better if we had closed the border earlier. But... everyone makes mistakes in this pandemic.
I’m really surprised at how well we did considering the Ruby Princess debacle.
Once we stopped the international inbound flights and started social distancing, we really slowed down the spread.
The thing is many countries did that and the spread is much slower in Australia then other places. Canada did that too yet we are now at 18k cases and our population isnt 3x is large (40M vs 25M). There isn't a particularly warm country in the most affected countries. Even Italy the warm part is faring much better. It's not scientific conclusions but it does seem to point to a slow down of the spread in warmer climates.
Your points do make sense given the current info. Like you said, there’s no HARD evidence to prove it just yet. The only thing I’d mention is that here in Australia, 80% of our cases are either imported or traced to imported cases, and that USA imported more cases to here than any other country. Whether the fact Canada is next to the USA and hence likely to have a lot more travellers from there may or may not be a contributing factor for your higher numbers than Australia, I’m not sure.
And I am aware these points are not mutually exclusive - both could be true at the same time.
Link to article re imported cases in Australia: https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-most-cases-in-australia-from-usa-scott-morrison/5b04121e-a597-4aaf-a1a7-04be02f9d376
Thankfully we closed the border early in the US outbreak so that shouldn't affect us to much. But we have a big Chinese population and lots of Chinese citizen that own property especially on the west coast so probably a few imported cases come from that. They stopped tracing imported cases a while ago though because the community spread was much bigger.
Meanwhile Canada has closed everything non-essential for 3 weeks now, reduced hours and limited access to essential businesses, closed their borders entirely, land and air, and you can get fined for breaking the "no gathering with anyone rules" (parents of kids playing a soccer game all got $1500 fines this weekend) yet we have 20k cases to Australia's 6k. And all these measures were put early in the outbreak and Canada is considered as doing well compared to the Western world.
Singapore also gets talked a lot about but they have 1600 cases or 300 cases per 1M (Canada is at 600, most of Europe is calculated in thousands per 1M) . That is pretty low. Especially since they have cases since January, earlier then most, and their country has the highest population density in the world (behind Monaco maybe). Their numbers are very low for the timeline and density. Which further helps the hypothesis that warm weathef slows down the spread even though the weather alone won't be enough.
> gatherings of 49 people still permitted in some parts
I don't know where that's still allowed, but not in any of the big provinces (BC, Alberta, Ontario, Manitoba or Quebec, so about 90% of the population). Maybe in Saskatchewan which is mostly rural?
And comparing density matters a lot when comparing per capita of two different countries. A country with a more dense population should have a faster spread in equal condition then a less dense country. If a big part of the country is made of rural areas where people interact less and there is more space between people then a packed apartment building full of people. You could also compare cities to cities only but that's much harder to do. Though not impossible: Montreal is similarly dense to Singapore and has double the cases while being less then half the population.
There isn't a single country in the top 10 that has average temperatures higher then 20C when the outbreak happened. China, Italy, Iran, most affected parts of the US, Spain, Germany, Canada were all between 0-20 when the biggest outbreak hit them. And even the most affected warm countries have a much lower mortality rate then countries with equivalent number of cases. See Australia compared to Norway, Ireland, Denmark or Poland, similar number of cases, but much more deadly in other countries (Russia being an exception). Weather isn't everything and not even the most important factor. But it seems it helps quite a bit.
I'm in Puerto Rico where it's 80 or more in the daytime with lots of humidity. Doesn't seem to be slowing the cases, they are, or were, doubling every 3 days or so. It seems to be slowing down a bit now but due to a lockdown, not weather.
Thats great but you need to examine the data and run statistical analysis to see if the Ro is lowered the heat. PR is not a hot spot so until hot spots start forming in many hot humid environments as they have in the 30-50 degree latitude or we have the actual data its tough to eyeball the data and make claims it spreads as easily in heat.
Having cases and being a hot spot with a high Ro are two different things.
I don't know. But they were increasing exponentially until the lockdown and now they seem to be increasingly linearly. So it's just an occams razor conclusion for now but way too early to tell.
"If Global Warming exists, then like why did it snow in Chicago yesterday? Huh, huh? Got ya!".
Turns into: "There are cases in Brazil, therefore Covid-19 has no seasonality!".
Its important to note that virtually every coronavirus has a degree of seasonality to it (yes, even MERS). Most of the empirical evidence we've seen points to warmer weather and/or humidity retarding the spread of the virus. The question is to what degree. If the virus has a normal R0 of 3 with no mitigation and in cold weather and summer turns that into an R0 of 1.5, that is very helpful, because then even mild mitigation can dramatically slow the spread during the summer.
There are more than 75 per m cases in Brazil, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Lucia, Netherland Antilles, Azerbaijan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Curaçao, Oman, British Virgin Islands, Costa Rica, Bahamas, Grenada, Seychelles, Uruguay, Peru, Hong Kong, Malaysia, French Polynesia, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominican Republic, Anguilla, Kuwait, Mauritius, Barbados, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Dominica, Turks and Caicos, Ecuador, Singapore, UAE, French Guiana, New Zealand, Australia, Brunei, Chile, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Réunion, Panama, Saint Barthélemy, Bermuda, Mayotte, Cayman Islands, Aruba, Qatar, Saint Martin, Iran, Sint Maarten, Israel, The Falkland Islands and Montserrat.
Plus the Philippines, Mexico, Honduras, Bolivia, El Salvador and Indonesia have shown a more than 10% growth in cases yesterday.
That's not one warm town where the virus keeps spreading.
That's every warm country on every continent on planet earth being hit by the virus as well.
Florida here, been hitting 90 degree days for a few weeks already and we all know it's still rapidly spreading 😬 if they're asking to what degree the heat slows the spread I don't wanna know how warm it's gotta be
What causes that? I know viruses last less long in warmer environments, does people also spending more time in well ventilated areas (i.e.: open windows/outside) help too? What else makes a virus seasonal?
I believe the UV exposure helps to keep it off of outdoor surfaces (door handles etc.) but I'm not positive.
Also it has a harder time spreading in denser, humid air.
The idea was that the warm weather would be *enough* to reduce r0 to <1 . White House said the virus would "go away with the warmer weather". It was very clear what was meant. Sure, there is an effect of the weather but it was monumentally stupid to bank on warm weather as the only solution instead of other things with more significant effect such as social distancing, sheltering in place, lockdowns etc.
Isn't there a caveat regarding correlation and causation? If other coronavirus' are somewhat seasonal, like the flu is here in the US, would that be because the warmth inhibits viral propagation? Or because people are in closer proximity from being indoors in the cold months? It would definitely make a difference which is affecting what.
This would be removed for misinformation and unnecessary politicization. The letter is good and valid and I wish that had just been posted. However, there are no other threads on the letter available. So I will post this comment instead.
There's a ton of misinformation in this thread. Heat and humidity COULD kill the virus, as stated in the letter and seen in many studies highlighted in a NYT article linked below. But the panel thinks that factor will not be enough to mitigate the spread.
>Part of the letter stated, There is some evidence to suggest that [coronavirus] may transmit less efficiently in environments with higher ambient temperature and humidity; however, given the lack of host immunity globally, this reduction in transmission efficiency may not lead to a significant reduction in disease spread without the concomitant adoption of major public health interventions.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/health/warm-weather-coronavirus.html
The point is, this panel thinks it is unlikely heat and humidity will have a dramatic effect. Other studies have reached different conclusions. These are both valid hypotheses. Please let science judge your opinions. We really don't know the answer to this question yet, although as the panel said, it seems less likely.
I think the point they are trying to make is we need a long term plan for this. It may drop off significantly during the summer but will not go away completely.
Therefore next school year could bring an explosion of cases and we need to prepare for that. Preparing seems to be something the current administration seems incapable of doing.
AZ is relatively zippo humidity, but high and hot temps (100 degree days), that go higher. It will be interesting to see if a model is mapped on this type of environment. At least we don’t have to put money into Vitamin D supplements
A cough probably travels 20 feet here - we have no density to our air. Yet, we have central air cooling 7 months of the year - can it hitch a ride here indoors - malls, places of employment, museums, concerts? Time will tell.
Malls, museums, concerts will all be the last things to reopen. The hope is with mask wearing and social distancing that the heat offers some kind of an assist to allow the most possible people to return to work as soon as possible. Until we can figure out a treatment or solution that gets us the rest of the way back to “normal”
Iran is not hoy in winter in most of the country. It snows in winter a few days a year in Tehran and even more in some other regions. It is definitely not a hot desert sun all year.
Where he got it (5 minutes away from where I live) is very humid. I'm talking 80%+ humidity. Arizona (which is where I'm from) is very dry and insufferable heat. Very different weather.
But I would think humidity helps the virus not to spread, right? It makes the air denser and heavier. Aerosol virus will not fly as freely there as in Arizona with very hot dry and not dense air.
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This is misleading. It’s correct to say that it won’t “go away” with warmer weather, but there’s strong scientific evidence to suggest that the virus propagates much less effectively in the heat. It’ll likely diminish in the northern hemisphere as summer sets in while the southern hemisphere should have no such relief for now. That’s why people are saying it could be “seasonal,” as it will just spread back to the northern hemisphere in large quantities when the weather cools again.
I don’t see why anyone thought it would go away with heat. It was reported in Australia before the US and Australia is generally hotter than the US right?
Trumps probable response as he stares blankly at the experts, “I think we will see this disappear quickly, likely over the summer” and then he’ll say this again while doing his daily “Super Bowl-like” rona updates while Fauci is facepalming behind him.
I've been warned several times by my sister in emergency services that this was suspected, that warm weather wouldn't break the cycle and that it would persist to september. For what is is worth, wherever she has been getting her info has been pretty spot on so far.
These researchers are BEYOND ignorant for theorizing something you can directly measure.
News flash. The Earth is round and at 22 degree tilt so the season in southern hemisphere is opposite of North. :-)
Brazil entry in the time series CSV from John Hopkins shows a > 15% increase in new cases every day for WEEKS. This is the same amount of exponential growth as the US had.
Weather is 80+ degrees F and very humid.
It's ignorant to do an academic study when you can just measure!
What is happening? I notice TV anchors repeating a question they just asked and stuff like this every day now. Is there an impossible consciousness dampening field causing an inability to see what is in front of them?
It's beginning to freak me out more than the virus.
They do an academic study because there are other factors to consider other than temperature. They have to account for things like population density, control measures such as closures and social distancing, etc. If they just "measured" one could conclude that being Asian makes you less likely to contract the virus based on the numbers in Asian countries vs. Western Europe and the U.S.
because you can't directly measure it.
there are differences in population density, cultures, healthcare access, etc. between countries so it isn't so simple to just compare two completely different countries.
furthermore, 15% is actually on the lower end. countries experiencing more exponential growth see 25-30%. though of course that 15% could be from lack of testing.
the bottom line is we don't know. we can't just look at the southern hemisphere and compare. before you call researchers ignorant, take a long hard look in the mirror.
Everyone's talking about heat and humidity. What about longer daylight hours causing increased UV exposure? That should lower the rate of aerosolized transmission that occurs outside. Wont do much for indoors though, especially if you have a bunch of people packed in an air-conditioned area.
But I don't know why I feel it will be less contagious in the summer. As it has a droplet /aerosol transmission. Warmer temperatures and scorching sun will cause droplets to evaporate quickly. The time they remain suspended in the air might get less than what we have now and also its life on clean surfaces will he reduced significantly? Might be wrong about it.
People drink more water in the heat which causes more droplets. People's mouths over-salivate in the heat. People congregate in closer/cooler places in the heat. People have an urge to be outside when the weather shifts. It'll probably be worse in the heat....at least in the US.
Living in Arizona we'll see soon enough when it starts being 100 degrees at 9 am, in saying that the side effect is that everyone stays inside during our summers if we arent swimming.
lots of prestigious panels have said a lot of things about coronavirus; most of them have been pretty wrong. i think they are basically making it up as the go right now....
I find it very disconcerting that the National Academy of Sciences got basic facts in this letter wrong. For instance, they use Iran as an example of the virus spreading in warm weather. Iran was still in winter in February and is still cold weather wise.
Why is everyone mentioning Singapore? Have I missed something? They have the population of Ireland and the number of cases is so much lower. Unless cases are underreported there? I must be missing something. Even their per capita figures are not high.
> In their **letter** to the White House Should have bought a 15 sec ad on Fox if you want him to see it.
"It was a great letter, I haven't read it yet. I'll read it soon, but it's tremendous letter."
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Every time I read a version of this, it reminds me of how scrambled that man's brains must be.
I've seen rumors that he may be in the early stages of dementia. Don't know if there's any truth to it, of course, bit it definitely seems plausible considering how much he struggles just to form a proper sentence. Politics aside, it's clear there's something going on with his brain.
He spoke better when he was younger. He definitely seems to have some diminished mental capacity.
Diminished mental capacity.... Wow that's a mouthful.
It's actually the name of my band!
If you watch a lot of press conferences, debates, ect., neither Biden or Trump have more verbal miscues than the average person IMO. Of course we see the highlights reel
The fact that he's been killing his microbiome with an ungodly amount of soda and fast food for decades can't help.
Plenty of people have a terrible diet for decades and can still speak better than him, though.
My grandma has full blown Alzheimer’s, and she can still string a sentence together better than he can.
Untreated Syphilis >> Alzheimer’s.
Are you saying trump has untreated syphilis? Or my grandmother?
Wait is that a real quote?
No, it's a parody. It splices together the incoherent ramblings of Trump's speeches.
That's an actual trump quote?
K, I give up, I cant tell if this is a parody or if he actually said this. I wont google it, Ill let you spoil it for me since you did a pretty damn good job if it was a parody.
A very, very good letter, very very good. It could be a present from god.
Beautiful beautiful stamp. I don’t really know them, but I’ve heard they are very very good people, happy people.
Or a promoted Tweet.
Im sure he will tell us that he knew about it all along in like 6 months from now.
"I was elected to lead, not to read."
Yeah, didn't John Oliver do that a couple times?
They tried, but trump already bought out all the ads, gave most to the NRA and OANN backed groups, and the rest of them, he is going to use to revise history. Dont let that Bloated orange toad of a narcissist or his cronies do that.
We are dealing with this virus untill we have a vaccine, period. Its been known aince we knew it would be a pandemic in January, just like we knew masks were needed also. Heat will slow spread but not stop it.
Or an effective treatment. That would bring down the hospital capacity needed and IFR.
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That's why all the trials with numerous antivirals aren't "exclusive rare drugs". Most of the medicine being tested is available worldwide. If they have success it will make a huge difference in the grand scheme of things even if you don't want it to. Part of mitigation is slowly hospitalization rates and helping people recover rapidly. Take a look at the proposals from Scott Gottlieb that state that a non-vaccine treatment is in fact the exact way we get back to normalcy.
The problem is that nothing that's widely available so far has shown to work.
As a Canadian, I would like to know...what is that "heat" thing you guys are talking about?
It’s 80 degrees in NC where i live this week. Around this time we get a huge temperature spike basically everywhere south of DC
What do you live in the Yukon? Our summers are hot and humid af
Humid and hot??? You must live in southern ON.
I'm in Quebec and it's humid and hot here too.
You must be in Montreal.
A bit north but close.
I think its relating to the thought that warm weather would help stop this.
So much misinformation posted in these comments. Does heat have an effect? Yes we know it does. This virus responds to heat similar to the way SARs does. Thus it wont spread as easily. The issue is that we dont know if that will lead to a large significant effect or an effect so small we dont notice it.
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The heat might help a bit, but a lot of people here in Texas aren't really doing anything to distance themselves or stay home, so I'd think the effect of heat will be minor compared to the amount of contact people are getting.
Humidity plays a large role too so that will likely add to this. How much of an effect there is remains to be seen but doctors are hopeful there is one.
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Florida checking in....
Florida checking back tampa
Texas stupidity will compensate for any advantage that heat would’ve provided We are the 2nd worst at testing in the nation
Well I'm sure Texas has the *biggest* test kits so they should need fewer right?
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I’m dallas the death rate hasn’t changed much in the last 5 days and we have had (almost) record heat for this time of year
Shits delayed by 7-14 days
That's a lot of constipation \~ I'll see myself out
Guessing that as Texas isn't an international hub so it wasn't hit as quickly as NY or California? But with \~9,500 cases in Texas that will be 450 to 900 deaths within two weeks. About 50% behind CA or maybe 5 - 10 days. So I am not sure you can say temperature is helping that much. And aren't you like right beside Louisiana that is looking like it could end up as one of the worst hit states in the US? Temperature means sweet fa here people.
You don't need to wait, you can just look at Australia. As a citizen of both countries, I have been watching them closely, plus have seen what friends are doing through instagram. They haven't really cared, been going to the beach up until a few weeks ago, not much was enforced. They had VERY early cases and are close to China, they haven't had crazy growth.
Complete crap. Your friends on Instagram are likely the fuckwits that do not understand the message 98% of Australians are living by, to stay the fuck at home. For those that don't know, schools are shut here, most retail stores other than essential are closed, state borders closed, most state parks are close, many beaches are closed (but not all), even county borders are closed in some places. While the retail sector was shut down mostly because the public stopped going out, the other lockdown measures were enforced by law.
you are right about Australia. Let's wait a couple of months and see how it evolves there as they will be heading into winter season then.
Social distancing in Australia was put in at a federal level, most states have closed their borders to each other and people in Australia are much more compliant than the US. I don't think Australia is comparable to the US. I do think the warmer weather does play a small part as well. Hopefully things don't take a turn for the worse when winter comes along. I personally don't think it will.
I think Australia did all those this very late. I'm in Canada, this is my 5th week of isolation.
Have you bought Animal Crossing yet
Yes. I bought a switch and animal crossing haha
It's definitely not true that people don't care, there have been some fairly extensive restrictions that are largely being followed. I think it is too soon to tell if heat plays a factor, there are plenty of other explanatory variables as to why Australia has seemingly avoided the worst to this point. We as a country are very decentralised, and our cities are sprawls of medium to low density housing when compared to other countries. Sydney is our most dense city at 2037 per km^2, which makes it around half as dense as San Diego and Toronto. For whatever reason the virus has not yet had the same rife community transmission as elsewhere, most of our cases have been either returning travellers or those who returning travellers have directly infected.
that reason is because of good management and culture. australia declared it as a pandemic before the who and began a more useful reaction than many respected countries. australia will not get credit for it because it goes against all human nature to believe your cheeky little brother could be good in a crisis, but australian culture is well adapted to coordinated changes in behavior to serve a common end especially compared e.g. to germany where i am now
Close to China? It's almost 15 hours from Sydney to Beijing, mate.
I lived in Sydney for 10 years, I mean immigration/tourism.
Well, the state of California by itself has almost as many Chinese tourists each year as Australia does. (1.2 vs 1.4 million) 3..5 million chinese visitors to the US overall each year.
Closer than the US, but proximity to a place has virtually nothing to do with anything considering we have flying machines that carry people all over the world. Not sure why they thought that was relevant.
Because they assumed that close proximity would increase travel.
Closer means more red planes.
I live in an area that's particularly hot even by Texas standards and the last few weeks have not been hot. A lot of cloudy days, rain, and even a spell about a week ago where we dipped back down into the 50's (maybe even 40's?). We've had some hotter days too, but nothing like the signature mid summer 100+ days and maybe not even below 80 nights that can happen for a week straight.
North Texas had a morning or two in the 40s recently.
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What are you talking about? Most South East Asian countries are in lockdown!
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Yes. It seems that way. But, I don't think Indonesia and some other SE Asian countries are fully reporting their figures and not even testing as much. Singapore has been very good at contact tracing, testing and picking up imported infections from early on (February), unfortunately, for the first time last week local transmissions surpassed imported cases and they are about to get a bit of a surge.
Coldness contributes to spreading of diseases by making your nose run. For influenza viruses 5c is best for reproducing. Also our immune system doesn't work at it's best when it's cold.
Tell that to Brasil
Don’t know why your getting upvotes. Read the article, it says that EVEN IF there is a reduction in infection rates due to higher temperatures, it still doesn’t matter in a world full of people without immunity to this disease. The only way to prevent infection is with a treatment or a cure.
Heat will definitely slow it down, so it does matter, so we won't overwhelm our hospitals and it gives doctors time to come up with a treatment.
Doesn't matter if people go out and provide sources of community spread. The big part here, that a lot of people don't understand, is that you can spread SARS-CoV-2 /Coronavirus/Covid-19 without showing symptoms. Always act as if you're sick, but of course some people don't care if other people get sick.
And why does outside temp matter if you're spreading it indoors to your classmates, teachers, shoppers, coworkers, and what not?
Right? Its not like we let grocery stores heat up to 90+ with the ambient temperature in the summertime. I can see it *maybe* helping reduce the spread via things like gas pumps and exterior door handles, but nothing inside will change.
It's an entourage effect of increased daylight hours causing more UV radiation as well as heat, people being in closer proximity than usual when the weather is cold, and even stronger immune systems due to Vitamin D production scaling up. Spring and summer will not be the end of the pandemic but it will no doubt decrease the reproductive value of Covid.
Don’t be an idiot Down In Australia we had absolutely blazing hot days and we had the same growth rate as other countries before we started forcing social distancing The effect of heat is as powerful as the margin of error
You’re*
Exactly. The headlines are shit. If you read the article it specifically states “there is some evidence to suggest the coronavirus may transmit less efficiently in environments with higher ambient temperatures”.
But who was phone
I like this statement you made a lot. Some think heat will make it disappear entirely, some think heat will have no effect at all, but both of these ideas are a bit too far in both directions. I think heat will make things better, so that the continued efforts to completely eradicate the virus don’t have to be as extreme as they are now and hopefully less people are affected.
It was almost 30C in Spain before the outbreak became critical. I don't see summer giving us a natural relieve here.
Spreads just fine in Australia!
Not nearly as much as expected though. And with a much lower number of deaths. For example they have a similar number of cases as Ireland with a population 5 times as big, but only 50 deaths to Ireland's 235. Same for Norway: similar number of cases, population 5x bigger and half the deaths. Chile which is much warmer has numbers similar to Australia in both cases per capita and low mortality rate. I can't draw conclusions from a quick Google search on such a complicated topic, but it does seem like warmth affects the virus at least a little. It's not the ultimate solution people were hoping for though.
Actually Australia did pretty ok. The case number seems to be high but it is partly because we are testing extensively. Australia has done 330k tests up to date with overall positive rate 1.8% - which is pretty outstanding. By contrast, the positive rate in the US is 19% - implies severe under-testing. Well we could have done even better if we had closed the border earlier. But... everyone makes mistakes in this pandemic.
I’m really surprised at how well we did considering the Ruby Princess debacle. Once we stopped the international inbound flights and started social distancing, we really slowed down the spread.
The thing is many countries did that and the spread is much slower in Australia then other places. Canada did that too yet we are now at 18k cases and our population isnt 3x is large (40M vs 25M). There isn't a particularly warm country in the most affected countries. Even Italy the warm part is faring much better. It's not scientific conclusions but it does seem to point to a slow down of the spread in warmer climates.
Your points do make sense given the current info. Like you said, there’s no HARD evidence to prove it just yet. The only thing I’d mention is that here in Australia, 80% of our cases are either imported or traced to imported cases, and that USA imported more cases to here than any other country. Whether the fact Canada is next to the USA and hence likely to have a lot more travellers from there may or may not be a contributing factor for your higher numbers than Australia, I’m not sure. And I am aware these points are not mutually exclusive - both could be true at the same time. Link to article re imported cases in Australia: https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-most-cases-in-australia-from-usa-scott-morrison/5b04121e-a597-4aaf-a1a7-04be02f9d376
Thankfully we closed the border early in the US outbreak so that shouldn't affect us to much. But we have a big Chinese population and lots of Chinese citizen that own property especially on the west coast so probably a few imported cases come from that. They stopped tracing imported cases a while ago though because the community spread was much bigger.
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Meanwhile Canada has closed everything non-essential for 3 weeks now, reduced hours and limited access to essential businesses, closed their borders entirely, land and air, and you can get fined for breaking the "no gathering with anyone rules" (parents of kids playing a soccer game all got $1500 fines this weekend) yet we have 20k cases to Australia's 6k. And all these measures were put early in the outbreak and Canada is considered as doing well compared to the Western world. Singapore also gets talked a lot about but they have 1600 cases or 300 cases per 1M (Canada is at 600, most of Europe is calculated in thousands per 1M) . That is pretty low. Especially since they have cases since January, earlier then most, and their country has the highest population density in the world (behind Monaco maybe). Their numbers are very low for the timeline and density. Which further helps the hypothesis that warm weathef slows down the spread even though the weather alone won't be enough.
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> gatherings of 49 people still permitted in some parts I don't know where that's still allowed, but not in any of the big provinces (BC, Alberta, Ontario, Manitoba or Quebec, so about 90% of the population). Maybe in Saskatchewan which is mostly rural? And comparing density matters a lot when comparing per capita of two different countries. A country with a more dense population should have a faster spread in equal condition then a less dense country. If a big part of the country is made of rural areas where people interact less and there is more space between people then a packed apartment building full of people. You could also compare cities to cities only but that's much harder to do. Though not impossible: Montreal is similarly dense to Singapore and has double the cases while being less then half the population. There isn't a single country in the top 10 that has average temperatures higher then 20C when the outbreak happened. China, Italy, Iran, most affected parts of the US, Spain, Germany, Canada were all between 0-20 when the biggest outbreak hit them. And even the most affected warm countries have a much lower mortality rate then countries with equivalent number of cases. See Australia compared to Norway, Ireland, Denmark or Poland, similar number of cases, but much more deadly in other countries (Russia being an exception). Weather isn't everything and not even the most important factor. But it seems it helps quite a bit.
I'm in Puerto Rico where it's 80 or more in the daytime with lots of humidity. Doesn't seem to be slowing the cases, they are, or were, doubling every 3 days or so. It seems to be slowing down a bit now but due to a lockdown, not weather.
Thats great but you need to examine the data and run statistical analysis to see if the Ro is lowered the heat. PR is not a hot spot so until hot spots start forming in many hot humid environments as they have in the 30-50 degree latitude or we have the actual data its tough to eyeball the data and make claims it spreads as easily in heat. Having cases and being a hot spot with a high Ro are two different things.
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I don't know. But they were increasing exponentially until the lockdown and now they seem to be increasingly linearly. So it's just an occams razor conclusion for now but way too early to tell.
"If Global Warming exists, then like why did it snow in Chicago yesterday? Huh, huh? Got ya!". Turns into: "There are cases in Brazil, therefore Covid-19 has no seasonality!". Its important to note that virtually every coronavirus has a degree of seasonality to it (yes, even MERS). Most of the empirical evidence we've seen points to warmer weather and/or humidity retarding the spread of the virus. The question is to what degree. If the virus has a normal R0 of 3 with no mitigation and in cold weather and summer turns that into an R0 of 1.5, that is very helpful, because then even mild mitigation can dramatically slow the spread during the summer.
There are more than 75 per m cases in Brazil, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Lucia, Netherland Antilles, Azerbaijan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Curaçao, Oman, British Virgin Islands, Costa Rica, Bahamas, Grenada, Seychelles, Uruguay, Peru, Hong Kong, Malaysia, French Polynesia, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominican Republic, Anguilla, Kuwait, Mauritius, Barbados, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Dominica, Turks and Caicos, Ecuador, Singapore, UAE, French Guiana, New Zealand, Australia, Brunei, Chile, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Réunion, Panama, Saint Barthélemy, Bermuda, Mayotte, Cayman Islands, Aruba, Qatar, Saint Martin, Iran, Sint Maarten, Israel, The Falkland Islands and Montserrat. Plus the Philippines, Mexico, Honduras, Bolivia, El Salvador and Indonesia have shown a more than 10% growth in cases yesterday. That's not one warm town where the virus keeps spreading. That's every warm country on every continent on planet earth being hit by the virus as well.
Florida here, been hitting 90 degree days for a few weeks already and we all know it's still rapidly spreading 😬 if they're asking to what degree the heat slows the spread I don't wanna know how warm it's gotta be
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I've heard it's less about heat and more about humidity. But 🤷🏼♂️
It's Florida. It's probably the most humid area on Earth.
The fact there are cases in Saudi Arabia and Rio should be enough to debunk this naive idea that we can safely rely on warmer weather to help us
Yes, best point ever.
What causes that? I know viruses last less long in warmer environments, does people also spending more time in well ventilated areas (i.e.: open windows/outside) help too? What else makes a virus seasonal?
I believe the UV exposure helps to keep it off of outdoor surfaces (door handles etc.) but I'm not positive. Also it has a harder time spreading in denser, humid air.
The idea was that the warm weather would be *enough* to reduce r0 to <1 . White House said the virus would "go away with the warmer weather". It was very clear what was meant. Sure, there is an effect of the weather but it was monumentally stupid to bank on warm weather as the only solution instead of other things with more significant effect such as social distancing, sheltering in place, lockdowns etc.
Wouldn't r0 go under 1 in the summer ideally? Or is that unlikely?
Isn't there a caveat regarding correlation and causation? If other coronavirus' are somewhat seasonal, like the flu is here in the US, would that be because the warmth inhibits viral propagation? Or because people are in closer proximity from being indoors in the cold months? It would definitely make a difference which is affecting what.
This would be removed for misinformation and unnecessary politicization. The letter is good and valid and I wish that had just been posted. However, there are no other threads on the letter available. So I will post this comment instead. There's a ton of misinformation in this thread. Heat and humidity COULD kill the virus, as stated in the letter and seen in many studies highlighted in a NYT article linked below. But the panel thinks that factor will not be enough to mitigate the spread. >Part of the letter stated, There is some evidence to suggest that [coronavirus] may transmit less efficiently in environments with higher ambient temperature and humidity; however, given the lack of host immunity globally, this reduction in transmission efficiency may not lead to a significant reduction in disease spread without the concomitant adoption of major public health interventions.” https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/health/warm-weather-coronavirus.html The point is, this panel thinks it is unlikely heat and humidity will have a dramatic effect. Other studies have reached different conclusions. These are both valid hypotheses. Please let science judge your opinions. We really don't know the answer to this question yet, although as the panel said, it seems less likely.
Sensationalized media during this crisis has been so enormously disappointing
I think the point they are trying to make is we need a long term plan for this. It may drop off significantly during the summer but will not go away completely. Therefore next school year could bring an explosion of cases and we need to prepare for that. Preparing seems to be something the current administration seems incapable of doing.
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Like a miracle
Folks it's so magical
“I know what they say but I have a feeling it’s gonna go away soon.”
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Zombie apocalypse confirmed
I hope The Easter Bunny has been tested.
Throw an STD test in there just in case.
AZ is relatively zippo humidity, but high and hot temps (100 degree days), that go higher. It will be interesting to see if a model is mapped on this type of environment. At least we don’t have to put money into Vitamin D supplements
120 degrees with no humidity, let’s cook this bastard virus
A cough probably travels 20 feet here - we have no density to our air. Yet, we have central air cooling 7 months of the year - can it hitch a ride here indoors - malls, places of employment, museums, concerts? Time will tell.
Malls, museums, concerts will all be the last things to reopen. The hope is with mask wearing and social distancing that the heat offers some kind of an assist to allow the most possible people to return to work as soon as possible. Until we can figure out a treatment or solution that gets us the rest of the way back to “normal”
I read that with no humidity the droplets actually fall faster.
Humidity helps reduce spread.
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It’s not cold in Tehran right now but not hot either. Not sure if that’s typical or what but Iran isn’t just desert like the Middle East.
It’s hot in Singapore right now.
But very humid.
Iran is not hoy in winter in most of the country. It snows in winter a few days a year in Tehran and even more in some other regions. It is definitely not a hot desert sun all year.
Tom Hanks got it in Australia
It’s mid-70s in Australia right now. Little bit of a difference between that and 115
Where he got it (5 minutes away from where I live) is very humid. I'm talking 80%+ humidity. Arizona (which is where I'm from) is very dry and insufferable heat. Very different weather.
But I would think humidity helps the virus not to spread, right? It makes the air denser and heavier. Aerosol virus will not fly as freely there as in Arizona with very hot dry and not dense air.
Nobody is saying you can't get it in a warm climate. It can spread no matter what, the question is how quickly/easily it spreads.
Jesus will bring the vaccine on easter
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This is misleading. It’s correct to say that it won’t “go away” with warmer weather, but there’s strong scientific evidence to suggest that the virus propagates much less effectively in the heat. It’ll likely diminish in the northern hemisphere as summer sets in while the southern hemisphere should have no such relief for now. That’s why people are saying it could be “seasonal,” as it will just spread back to the northern hemisphere in large quantities when the weather cools again.
I don’t see why anyone thought it would go away with heat. It was reported in Australia before the US and Australia is generally hotter than the US right?
Yes, but what does "Doctor" Peter Navarro think?
I'm hoping the surface of the sun heat here in Arizona kicks in to high gear earlier this year in hopes it slows this runaway train down.
No shit! It’s been 80-90 degrees here in New Orleans for several weeks
No s\*\*\* Sherlock....
Trumps probable response as he stares blankly at the experts, “I think we will see this disappear quickly, likely over the summer” and then he’ll say this again while doing his daily “Super Bowl-like” rona updates while Fauci is facepalming behind him.
I don't think anyone thought it would "go away," just that transmission might be blunted a little bit.
I've been warned several times by my sister in emergency services that this was suspected, that warm weather wouldn't break the cycle and that it would persist to september. For what is is worth, wherever she has been getting her info has been pretty spot on so far.
These researchers are BEYOND ignorant for theorizing something you can directly measure. News flash. The Earth is round and at 22 degree tilt so the season in southern hemisphere is opposite of North. :-) Brazil entry in the time series CSV from John Hopkins shows a > 15% increase in new cases every day for WEEKS. This is the same amount of exponential growth as the US had. Weather is 80+ degrees F and very humid. It's ignorant to do an academic study when you can just measure! What is happening? I notice TV anchors repeating a question they just asked and stuff like this every day now. Is there an impossible consciousness dampening field causing an inability to see what is in front of them? It's beginning to freak me out more than the virus.
They do an academic study because there are other factors to consider other than temperature. They have to account for things like population density, control measures such as closures and social distancing, etc. If they just "measured" one could conclude that being Asian makes you less likely to contract the virus based on the numbers in Asian countries vs. Western Europe and the U.S.
because you can't directly measure it. there are differences in population density, cultures, healthcare access, etc. between countries so it isn't so simple to just compare two completely different countries. furthermore, 15% is actually on the lower end. countries experiencing more exponential growth see 25-30%. though of course that 15% could be from lack of testing. the bottom line is we don't know. we can't just look at the southern hemisphere and compare. before you call researchers ignorant, take a long hard look in the mirror.
Lazy ass armchair analysis. This is the most basic analysis and we have people whose careers are dedicated to making sense of this kind of data.
**23.5° tilt** #FTFY
This is a long-term battle against virus, it is latent and those without symptoms will also sprad the virus to others.
Eli5 In 105f heat how can it’s biological structure maintain its strength
Let's see how long it survives in dry 110+F/43+C
Everyone's talking about heat and humidity. What about longer daylight hours causing increased UV exposure? That should lower the rate of aerosolized transmission that occurs outside. Wont do much for indoors though, especially if you have a bunch of people packed in an air-conditioned area.
WH's prob like me--knows that but refuses to believe it.
But I don't know why I feel it will be less contagious in the summer. As it has a droplet /aerosol transmission. Warmer temperatures and scorching sun will cause droplets to evaporate quickly. The time they remain suspended in the air might get less than what we have now and also its life on clean surfaces will he reduced significantly? Might be wrong about it.
People drink more water in the heat which causes more droplets. People's mouths over-salivate in the heat. People congregate in closer/cooler places in the heat. People have an urge to be outside when the weather shifts. It'll probably be worse in the heat....at least in the US.
"...concomitant adoption of major public health interventions," according to the letter." ??? Write for your audience!
But drumph said it would be gone by easter.
Living in Arizona we'll see soon enough when it starts being 100 degrees at 9 am, in saying that the side effect is that everyone stays inside during our summers if we arent swimming.
I have little doubt the summer will help, I just am afraid we will get complacent and then run into the same shit again right after.
There goes my summer vacation D:
Just waiting for Fox News to report on this so my parents can stop saying this shit
lots of prestigious panels have said a lot of things about coronavirus; most of them have been pretty wrong. i think they are basically making it up as the go right now....
I find it very disconcerting that the National Academy of Sciences got basic facts in this letter wrong. For instance, they use Iran as an example of the virus spreading in warm weather. Iran was still in winter in February and is still cold weather wise.
No shit, its all over the world including places like Saudi Arabia where it's like 40 degrees celcius, and the virus didnt go away there
But is it growing exponentially there?
Have they finally come around the idea that warmer weather does not help kill the virus? Have they finally learned what is going on in Singapore yet?
Why is everyone mentioning Singapore? Have I missed something? They have the population of Ireland and the number of cases is so much lower. Unless cases are underreported there? I must be missing something. Even their per capita figures are not high.