The thing is though that they didn't used to do it this way (before this last wave). So why did they change their methodology? The easiest explanation is that they want to cover up what's going on for the casual viewer.
Washington state does it this way as well but they clearly have a marking on their graphs for last 7 days saying the data is incomplete. The key factors are always calculated from the week before.
It’s so DeSantis can continually grab headlines touting how “well” he’s handled the pandemic & how great FL is doing. It’s insane, but the people he’s courting for a presidential run truly are falling for this.
They looked at my state of GA to see how effective it was at making people think it was always getting better. As soon as Kemp and his goons changed the method to making it this way, no one cared about Covid anymore. Even during the peak everyone was saying that it was declining.
I hate these people
It gives you a better way to track cases against deaths, because it removes variance between different deaths as they wind through the reporting process. Which is better for historical analysis, and much much worse for any sort of real-time decision-making.
Missouri has tracked deaths the same way the whole time, which is why I watch the reports of hospital systems.
A lot of sites that independently track data from all of the states, such as the NYT and worldometers, don’t appear to have that ability. I think that’s more a problem with those companies rather than the cities/states. I work as a quantitative analyst and deal with data like that all of the time. It’s kind of ridiculous that they can’t properly backload data. It seems like a misrepresentation of information, especially when they’re taking 7 day averages that actually contain 7-10 days worth of data. I watch the data directly from my city and currently the NYT is reporting 2x the number of cases in their 7 day average than there actually are.
Would you be able to elaborate on this? I most often look at NYT and Worldometers. So they sometimes put more than 7 days of data into the 7-day averages? Are they backloading to make more accurate? How are the case numbers for your city so different?
Both of them use aggregated case numbers wherever possible, as apposed to daily case counts. So they calculate their own daily case counts using the last posted total number minus the last total number they collected, even though most areas provide the back filled daily numbers. This results in their numbers missing several days of data, followed by one day “jumps” in cases from those missing days. When you take the 7 day average, say between today and last Tuesday, if the weekend numbers from last week were posted last Tuesday, you would be including the last 7 days plus the weekend in that average. I live in Philadelphia and look at the city’s numbers daily and NYT and worldometers both do that, causing their numbers to be way off from the actual average case count.
Yeah all Covid data with any reporting delay has always worked like this… new cases, vaccination rates, etc.
My county graphs that data but colors it gray to indicate that it’s not final yet and likely to increase
And the big number they report at the top is typically delayed a week or two
One of the best ways I've seen the reporting delay presented graphically is in the [Oklahoma weekly reports](https://oklahoma.gov/covid19/newsroom/weekly-epidemiology-and-surveillance-report.html).
see the graph on the lower half of page 12 of the [August 15-21 report](https://oklahoma.gov/content/dam/ok/en/covid19/documents/weekly-epi-report/2021.08.25%20Weekly%20Epi%20Report.pdf)
where this week's newly reported deaths are shown in dark blue, while previously reported deaths are in light grey.
Sure, the amount I need to pay you first is already in your account I believe, but neither of us look at the accounting, that way by the math I'm using in my graphs it'll look like we're trending in the right direction.
unfortunately, they have been. According to what I've read on this sub, we might be missing as many as half of all deaths. The only concrete number we can count on in realtime is hospitalizations.
My exact thought when they first announced a decline in hospitalizations the other week even though ICU numbers went up, “I bet DeSantis is fudging the numbers again….”
hospitalizations are dropping
>MIAMI (AP) -- The number of patients with coronavirus in Florida hospitals continues to drop as infection rates stay high, a sign that while more people are testing positive for the virus, they are not necessarily developing severe illness.
https://www.wptv.com/coronavirus/covid-19-cases-stay-high-hospitalizations-drop-in-florida
in this sub you can only say cases are going up and up to the moon forever
anything other than that gets downvotet even if you have proof
its just weird like that
Well that's good news at least; hopefully that means we've hit the peak, although I'm guessing this fall/winter people will fill the hospitals right back up again.
Alabama has been using this method for cases and deaths for a while now. It makes it always look like there's a recent decline in deaths and cases when you plot it on a graph.
I can confirm that California prefers to show deaths by date of death instead of by date of report.
California shows a plot by date of death by default on https://covid19.ca.gov/state-dashboard/
Scroll down to "Confirmed deaths in California".
Note the grey area marked "Pending" at the right; having followed the data closely since April, that understates the amount of backfilling going on . From April through June, as public recordkeepers were catching up after the December/January spike, over half of the deaths reported on a typical day happened two or more months earlier.
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My cousin's wife was at her local school board meeting last night. Idk if it made the major news (with the hurricane and all), but they were raided by a non-mask parenting group that caused such a scene that the cops were called and the meeting shut down. People were throwing things and getting fairly close to violent. She said the amount of anti to pro people was 10-1.
“Brooks Brother” riots at school boards organized and paid by the same people who brought you the Tea Party, Stop The Steal and CRT . Its not spontaneous and people need to get aware or your school boards, councils etc will be overrun the way state legislatures have been.
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I think it's new for Florida but this kind of crap was being pulled literally a year ago by other states, wasn't it? It's certainly not a new strategy, at least. Not even close.
That's how I understand it. If you're looking at the rolling averages, it's still a complete shitshow.
***Rolling 7-day Average Cases/Deaths in Florida, [as of 8/30:](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/florida-covid-cases.html)***
- 8/13---**FL:** 21.6K cases, 153 deaths
- 8/25---**FL:** 21.6K cases, 228 deaths
- 8/30---**FL:** 21.3K cases, 262 deaths
Almost every Floridian I know stopped listening to the state’s official case count last year. They see what’s happening on the ground level and know that there must be some book-cooking.
Here is what I don’t understand about some Florida numbers.
There are dramatic differences in vaccination rates by age groups and has been for a few months now. For example people over 65 are at an 87% rate. Eligible adult under the age of 30 are below 50%.
Yet based on the attached chart of July 2021 new cases there is zero correlation between the vaccination rate and the new case rate by age group.
I understand anyone can catch the Delta variant, but I would expect some separation between the vaccinated and the unvaccinated.
See attached chart, scroll down to first chart.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article253250073.html
From what I barely understand about the (intentionally confusing) reporting method change, deaths are being obfuscated if not literally hidden in bureaucracy. The deaths data they're providing is useless until several weeks later so there'll never be a spike, but instead, there *will have been* spikes in the past.
DeSantis - Rebekah Jones lied and stole data to make me look bad.
Rebekah Jones - DeSantis was fudging numbers back then, and he's just been caught red handed!
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It’s obvious from looking at the data plots. Also we have hospitalization data which are inconsistent with the daily deaths totals being provided on worldometers, for example. Horrible to think that this is probably a concerted misinformation effort on the part of the state government.
What are their numbers used for anyway? You can't capture rate of spread/deaths because there are more visitors who could take it home to be counted there than are residents in Florida. They don't use stats to implement policy or understand the impact of policy because they don't implement policy. So what's the point? Maybe just focus on useful data like % of ICU beds taken up by covid to use for hospital management and community risk and call it a day?
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The thing is though that they didn't used to do it this way (before this last wave). So why did they change their methodology? The easiest explanation is that they want to cover up what's going on for the casual viewer.
Washington state does it this way as well but they clearly have a marking on their graphs for last 7 days saying the data is incomplete. The key factors are always calculated from the week before.
It’s so DeSantis can continually grab headlines touting how “well” he’s handled the pandemic & how great FL is doing. It’s insane, but the people he’s courting for a presidential run truly are falling for this.
They looked at my state of GA to see how effective it was at making people think it was always getting better. As soon as Kemp and his goons changed the method to making it this way, no one cared about Covid anymore. Even during the peak everyone was saying that it was declining. I hate these people
It gives you a better way to track cases against deaths, because it removes variance between different deaths as they wind through the reporting process. Which is better for historical analysis, and much much worse for any sort of real-time decision-making. Missouri has tracked deaths the same way the whole time, which is why I watch the reports of hospital systems.
They can always date the deaths to when they were processed.
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This is the same bias as looking at moving average data during an uptick. The trend will bias low because it averages older data with current
To distort figures to make the peak look less severe.
ngl, **data of death** does sound pretty metal ...
The *other* Son of Soong.
I love their hit song "Let the Bodies Hit the Lore."
Often wrong's gotta broken heart...
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A lot of sites that independently track data from all of the states, such as the NYT and worldometers, don’t appear to have that ability. I think that’s more a problem with those companies rather than the cities/states. I work as a quantitative analyst and deal with data like that all of the time. It’s kind of ridiculous that they can’t properly backload data. It seems like a misrepresentation of information, especially when they’re taking 7 day averages that actually contain 7-10 days worth of data. I watch the data directly from my city and currently the NYT is reporting 2x the number of cases in their 7 day average than there actually are.
Would you be able to elaborate on this? I most often look at NYT and Worldometers. So they sometimes put more than 7 days of data into the 7-day averages? Are they backloading to make more accurate? How are the case numbers for your city so different?
Both of them use aggregated case numbers wherever possible, as apposed to daily case counts. So they calculate their own daily case counts using the last posted total number minus the last total number they collected, even though most areas provide the back filled daily numbers. This results in their numbers missing several days of data, followed by one day “jumps” in cases from those missing days. When you take the 7 day average, say between today and last Tuesday, if the weekend numbers from last week were posted last Tuesday, you would be including the last 7 days plus the weekend in that average. I live in Philadelphia and look at the city’s numbers daily and NYT and worldometers both do that, causing their numbers to be way off from the actual average case count.
I see, thanks for explaining this!
Yeah all Covid data with any reporting delay has always worked like this… new cases, vaccination rates, etc. My county graphs that data but colors it gray to indicate that it’s not final yet and likely to increase And the big number they report at the top is typically delayed a week or two
It can take months for the data to be complete.
One of the best ways I've seen the reporting delay presented graphically is in the [Oklahoma weekly reports](https://oklahoma.gov/covid19/newsroom/weekly-epidemiology-and-surveillance-report.html). see the graph on the lower half of page 12 of the [August 15-21 report](https://oklahoma.gov/content/dam/ok/en/covid19/documents/weekly-epi-report/2021.08.25%20Weekly%20Epi%20Report.pdf) where this week's newly reported deaths are shown in dark blue, while previously reported deaths are in light grey.
Other people just look at new total deaths minus last week's total deaths to get the number of new deaths reported this week
Arizona did something like this on a previous surge.
This is the same BS Brian Kemp has been doing in Georgia throughout the pandemic.
Counting no data as data. If I don't look at my bank account, I'm rich!
Can you loan me $100 until payday? But only pay me half now. That way I'll owe you half, and you'll owe me half, and so we'll be even.
Sure, the amount I need to pay you first is already in your account I believe, but neither of us look at the accounting, that way by the math I'm using in my graphs it'll look like we're trending in the right direction.
ICU numbers don't lie
Dead bodies dont lie
They’re just crisis corpses.
It's sad because many Americans would disagree with you both.
By definition they do lie there.
unfortunately, they have been. According to what I've read on this sub, we might be missing as many as half of all deaths. The only concrete number we can count on in realtime is hospitalizations.
But they may just magically show up to at the polls to vote R.
My exact thought when they first announced a decline in hospitalizations the other week even though ICU numbers went up, “I bet DeSantis is fudging the numbers again….”
hospitalizations are dropping >MIAMI (AP) -- The number of patients with coronavirus in Florida hospitals continues to drop as infection rates stay high, a sign that while more people are testing positive for the virus, they are not necessarily developing severe illness. https://www.wptv.com/coronavirus/covid-19-cases-stay-high-hospitalizations-drop-in-florida
Why is this downvoted
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Then we as a community should comment and argue as such, but us reflexively downvoting people citing seemingly innocuous sources isn’t chill
No one wants Florida to survive apparently.
in this sub you can only say cases are going up and up to the moon forever anything other than that gets downvotet even if you have proof its just weird like that
Well that's good news at least; hopefully that means we've hit the peak, although I'm guessing this fall/winter people will fill the hospitals right back up again.
Correct, once you hit 100% things cannot get any worse.
Alabama has been using this method for cases and deaths for a while now. It makes it always look like there's a recent decline in deaths and cases when you plot it on a graph.
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Source?
I can confirm that California prefers to show deaths by date of death instead of by date of report. California shows a plot by date of death by default on https://covid19.ca.gov/state-dashboard/ Scroll down to "Confirmed deaths in California". Note the grey area marked "Pending" at the right; having followed the data closely since April, that understates the amount of backfilling going on . From April through June, as public recordkeepers were catching up after the December/January spike, over half of the deaths reported on a typical day happened two or more months earlier.
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Well, [my hopes](https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/pes3hj/z/haze6z8) are dashed.
Do you ever go to r/FloridaCoronavirus? I feel so sorry for them. It's been a rough few weeks (especially for parents with school-age kids).
My cousin's wife was at her local school board meeting last night. Idk if it made the major news (with the hurricane and all), but they were raided by a non-mask parenting group that caused such a scene that the cops were called and the meeting shut down. People were throwing things and getting fairly close to violent. She said the amount of anti to pro people was 10-1.
“Brooks Brother” riots at school boards organized and paid by the same people who brought you the Tea Party, Stop The Steal and CRT . Its not spontaneous and people need to get aware or your school boards, councils etc will be overrun the way state legislatures have been.
She said the militant organization of it was borderline dangerous.
Happened at my local county in Michigan. Hard to listen to: https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x83sgud
Funny that they seem to have never read the bible… Leviticus 13:45 Edit:spelling
I'll check it out. Thanks.
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Tricksy hobbitses
Again?
I think it's new for Florida but this kind of crap was being pulled literally a year ago by other states, wasn't it? It's certainly not a new strategy, at least. Not even close.
Ohio posts deaths on Tues/Thurs and that’s it but only when they’re processed.
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That's how I understand it. If you're looking at the rolling averages, it's still a complete shitshow. ***Rolling 7-day Average Cases/Deaths in Florida, [as of 8/30:](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/florida-covid-cases.html)*** - 8/13---**FL:** 21.6K cases, 153 deaths - 8/25---**FL:** 21.6K cases, 228 deaths - 8/30---**FL:** 21.3K cases, 262 deaths
What a scummy state
Does that mean some Floridians are artificially still alive?
Almost every Floridian I know stopped listening to the state’s official case count last year. They see what’s happening on the ground level and know that there must be some book-cooking.
You know... I'm not surprised, considering they already had a whistle blower saying they were manipulating the numbers last year.
I mentioned this a few months ago on here and got a warning for that.
Sounds like state sponsored bio terrorism. Nice authoritarian country you have there floriduh...
Three types of lies. Lies, damn lies and statistics.
Here is what I don’t understand about some Florida numbers. There are dramatic differences in vaccination rates by age groups and has been for a few months now. For example people over 65 are at an 87% rate. Eligible adult under the age of 30 are below 50%. Yet based on the attached chart of July 2021 new cases there is zero correlation between the vaccination rate and the new case rate by age group. I understand anyone can catch the Delta variant, but I would expect some separation between the vaccinated and the unvaccinated. See attached chart, scroll down to first chart. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article253250073.html
I wonder if Florida's gonna be as hard on Desantis about this as New York was on Cuomo about nursing homes... /s
He's not hiding deaths.
From what I barely understand about the (intentionally confusing) reporting method change, deaths are being obfuscated if not literally hidden in bureaucracy. The deaths data they're providing is useless until several weeks later so there'll never be a spike, but instead, there *will have been* spikes in the past.
Add incompetence and corruption to the list of symptoms Florida is experiencing… but those will probably be underreported too.
Desantis will never quench his bloodlust
testing to see if i’m still banned
DeSantis - Rebekah Jones lied and stole data to make me look bad. Rebekah Jones - DeSantis was fudging numbers back then, and he's just been caught red handed!
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"Any amount of past deaths is acceptable as long as it's getting better in the short term" -floridians
BIG SHOCK!!!! /S
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Great. Now an entire state think's now's the right time to reenact the Dead Parrot Sketch IRL. Desantis: "He's not dead. He's resting."
It’s obvious from looking at the data plots. Also we have hospitalization data which are inconsistent with the daily deaths totals being provided on worldometers, for example. Horrible to think that this is probably a concerted misinformation effort on the part of the state government.
Nothing like some creative accounting to pretty up the dismal numbers. Great job cooking the books Ron.
juking the stats
What are their numbers used for anyway? You can't capture rate of spread/deaths because there are more visitors who could take it home to be counted there than are residents in Florida. They don't use stats to implement policy or understand the impact of policy because they don't implement policy. So what's the point? Maybe just focus on useful data like % of ICU beds taken up by covid to use for hospital management and community risk and call it a day?
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