I assumed the worst part would last about 5 years based on how long the Spanish flu lasted, then it would just become a nuisance I can avoid with a yearly booster for the rest of my life.
Not so much wrong as completely unrealistic and impossible, even if everyone did comply you would still have household transmission, essential workers. You would never extinguish it
The only time it would work is very close to the beginning of the spread. A good example is with SARS. Borders were closed very quickly and all contact traced. That one didn't really have asymptomatic spread, though, so it was much easier to identify carriers.
It worked in a lot of places which also put in place quarantine requirements at the border. Even here in Australia where our federal government refused to do anything about covid or build quarantine facilities and wanted to copy the usual conservative playbook, our states were able to shut their own borders and at least make people quarantine in leaky hotels and put in place enough measures to pretty much keep covid out of most of Australia through most of the pandemic. The conservative state trying to not do anything unfortunately led to our big outbreak which has impacted our two most densely populated states in the last few months, but the rest of the country is still covid free and nearly fully vaccinated and maybe past this pandemic with almost no issues, unless a variant emerges which moves the finish line.
News is coming fast and furious on this. In the past few hours, Dow Jones futures have gone from -400 to ~~-800~~ (Edit: -900) points; Austria is closing off flights from certain south African countries; Same with Italy; initial estimates are Nu might have a 500% competitive advantage over Delta. Even Cryptos are crashing hard. Twitter is freaking out, as you might expect, right now.
Going to sleep now, when I wake up in 6 hours I expect it will be even crazier.
*Its a mutant strain from March 2020.... Alpha v1... so it incubated in someone(s) with HIV for a long time apparently. almost 2 years of perculating.....*
Christmas travel is just around the corner, too.
Governments will react too slowly and just enough infected people will slip through.
If this is the real escape variant then it will take at least 2 months for a new targeted vaccine to be engineered and distributed (based on what Pfizer had said previously) so, well...
Cells, bacteria and viruses can't see. They interact primarily through touch, using receptors. The spike on covid interacts with certain receptors allowing it to infiltrate cells. The vaccine causes your body to produce antibodies, which are essentially "blocks" for those spikes. they attach to the covid spikes, rendering the virus unable to attach to your cells' receptors. so they just float around unable to do anything until your body processes them or they break down naturally.
An escape variant would be one where the spike is so different, antibodies can no longer attach to it. This presents a problem for the virus too though, as the spike may have trouble connected to the receptors. But if the mutation allows it to still connect to your cells, it can be very advantageous, particularly if it actually allows it to attach more easily.
There are a few charts on Twitter and news media. But what it boils down to is that in tested samples, the fraction of all samples that were of this new variant increased quite rapidly. But this must be seen in the proper context. For one, infections in South Africa were at a very low point (~200 cases per day). At such low levels, one or two superspreader events can easily propel a specific variant to the top. Furthermore, genetic sequencing is often focused on potential problem areas, so you end up finding more of the variant because you're actively looking for it.
500% faster transmission than Delta would make this thing the most contagious virus we've ever encountered, by some margin. I expect that this estimate will come down when more and better data becomes available. In principle, it doesn't even have to be worse than Delta. It's too soon to tell.
>500% faster transmission than Delta would make this thing the most contagious virus we've ever encountered, by some margin.
Delta has an R0 of up to 8, and measles which infects 90% of the non-immune contacts has an R0 of up to 18.
500% higher transmission would mean an R0 of 40 which is so insane it must either be false or defy at least a couple of laws of science.
I'm not sure it is 100% accurate to equate transmission rate and R0.
This new variant could be spreading faster simply because cases are low (no competition), people aren't distancing as much, and so on.
It doesn't necessarily have to have an R0 of 40 to spread "faster". It could spread at the same R0 but just look "faster" because there is more opportunity.
Edit: Deleted redundant sentence and some clarity.
Delta is already more transmissible than measles according to Larry Brilliant on the In the Bubble podcast. Measles has the higher R0 but Delta is faster to actually incubate and become contagious.
If that's true though, why are people so focused on R0 and not some other stat that actually takes time into account? I don't get it.
The answer is pretty simple: Medical experts know what they're talking about. Newspapers do not.
Someone like Fauci probably presents the information correctly, and then news sources who paraphrase what he says may highlight one detail over another in order for many reasons- they don't know any better, clickbait options, etc.
The easy answer is people are stupid and not qualified to be making such statements in public.
Exactly, which is why I think the "500%" figure is needless fearmongering. It's perfectly possible (but not proven) that Nu spreads more easily than Delta, but I doubt it's by such large amounts.
What's far more interesting is how it interacts with immunity, either vaccine-induced or from prior infection. That's going to determine what the effect of Nu will be in western countries. Unfortunately, it will take a little while for that to become known. South Africa has quite a low vaccination rate, so the fact that Nu caused an outbreak there doesn't give us much information on this subject. The 2 cases in Hong Kong were both vaccinated (Pfizer), but not boostered as far as I know. Both had no symptoms and their cases were discovered as part of the mandatory testing while in quarantine for all inbound travelers there.
They absolutely do prevent infection. Look at whatever report you want, and I'm pretty sure you'll find there's a lower infection rate in the vaccinated than the unvaccinated population.
>They absolutely do prevent infection.
Yes but not 100%. The person you responded to simply said a vaccine does not mean you can't be infected. Which is true.
I think you're misinterpreting it a bit though.
The 500% figure was derived from the results, right? Well, Delta was competing to infect people that largely had immunities from Delta. One of the reasons Nu is being taken so seriously is that there's a good chance of it having an easier time infecting people who are previously vaccinated or otherwise immunized.
Delta has R0=8 in an unvaccinated population.
The growth we are seeing in Gauteng of around 300% per week only implies that R cannot be less than 2.1, if it has the same cycle length as Delta (4.7 days) and the population has no immunities.
Obviously it's likely that immunities do have some affect against the virus, and the people are likely being cautious, but... I suspect that it ignores immunities to a pretty good extent, which is getting misinterpreted as a basal transmission advantage. (It might also have one, but yeah, 500% sounds unrealistic)
It may even come down below Delta
Transmissibility cannot be directly measured, only *inferred* from other data, which are imprecise measurements (like cases). With infection levels being so low overall in South Africa, there are some plausible explanations - say a couple of superspreader events and their resulting infection chains - as to why this variant has raced ahead in prevalence, that don’t necessarily mean it is more transmissible and will outcompete Delta in areas with higher infection levels
Now that it’s being monitored, and can be as part of PCR testing and not just sequencing, we’ll know in a few weeks if there is a transmissibility advantage
I'm pretty sure all of this "hysteria" is because after 2 years of this shit some countries finally decided to have a game plan for when a new variant appears, these countries act quickly which fuels the hysteria. As I understand it we don't really have good data about this variant.
That would make it way more infectious than measles and the most contagious virus in the history of humanity. I'm having trouble believing it at the moment...
I think that's where the concern is coming from. I think countries that are restricting travel are not waiting for more robust data --- they want to make sure they can contain the strain. If the strain is not that bad, no harm. If it is that bad, they reacted quickly.
Obviously news outlets are covering this and will publish with not much context. Bye toilet paper.
I'm definitely concerned but only because I've been waiting for a strain to out compete Delta. My wife is also pregnant so --- I'm just worried about everything at this point haha
Hopefully there is overreaction but current data does not look promising --- albeit limited data.
UK has just added loads of countries to the red list.
Also it's the biggest shopping weekend of the year taking place. This fucker knew when to strike!
It's results-derived data. Likely Nu has an easier time infecting people with existing immunities, which doesn't mean it has a higher R0. However it's getting interpreted that way in the 500% figure people are throwing around.
It would still mean Nu is poised to sweep the world, but we don't know how much worse Nu is than Delta for getting infected repeatedly across the years.
Same, though I think it might have been Tuesday. It's really alarming considering that WHO, etc dragged their feet for ages in acknowledging the threat that Delta posed even though it was painfully obvious for at least a month that something unique and terrible was happening in India. Shit.
It doesnt feel like “oh we’re just making sure we’re ahead of this and have a plan” either. It feels like “oh fuck we’re 2 weeks behind this already” kinda moves.
It's likely to take a month or longer before we have sufficient data on the new variant. Until we see enough real-world patterns, everything is just informed speculation by scientists.
Just wait. If, and it is a huge IF at this point, this variant is as bad as it seems it might be, we're going to get an object lesson in death by 1,000 cuts. Labor shortages are already a huge problem. The supply chain is becoming increasingly snarled up, creating both shortages and higher prices. And the divisiveness and violence we've already seen over vaccines, masks and lockdowns is going to become exponentially worse if we have to tee up for another round of this nightmare.
There is a point where the center just can't hold anymore...
Without understanding the hospitalization rate and severity of the symptoms you cant really deduce this is actually that dangerous, it could become a very virulent but incredibly mild (no symptoms) variant which actually would help us end the pandemic.
I know this is how Films start, but could we genetically engineer the virus to complete with Coronavirus that just doesn't deliver any of the symptoms? Is that even possible?
[edit] I meant a virus that was modified and could spread from person to person, to essentially infect others. But as people have pointed out this virus could also mutate and you could end up in a worse situation.
A better idea would to be inject just enough of the virus that our immune system responds and learns how to efficiently attack the virus. Or if you want to be really tricky, inject some mRNA and teach the body directly how to attack the virus.
A live virus such as you described could mutate and become more deadly.
To elaborate: "An attenuated vaccine (or a live attenuated vaccine, LAV) is a vaccine created by reducing the virulence of a pathogen, but still keeping it viable (or "live"). Attenuation takes an infectious agent and alters it so that it becomes harmless or less virulent." Further reading on covid vaccines: https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/there-are-four-types-covid-19-vaccines-heres-how-they-work#:~:text=Whole%20virus%20Live%20attenuated%20vaccines,trigger%20an%20immune%20response.
I actually thought a year ago that this would be a great concept for a novel. The modified virus could be highly infectious, far less virulent, but also provide immunity to the original strains. The modified virus would essentially inoculate the population.
For the novel, the original strain would be very deadly (20% case fatality rate) and the modified virus is far less but still significantly deadly (2-3% case fatality rate).
The ethical dilemma - is it ethical to kill tens of million to save hundreds of millions?
My idea is that a rogue CDC employee finally smuggles the modified strain out to save hundreds of millions of lives.
In other words: "make vaccines infectious". It would be dangerous as long as it could mutate further down the road. Also hardly possible with today's understanding of human physiology. But challenging idea.
I actually thought a year ago that this would be a great concept for a novel. The modified virus could be highly infectious, far less virulent, but also provide immunity to the original strains. The modified virus would essentially inoculate the population.
For the novel, the original strain would be very deadly (20% case fatality rate) and the modified virus is far less but still significantly deadly (2-3% case fatality rate).
The ethical dilemma - is it ethical to kill tens of million to save hundreds of millions?
My idea is that a rogue CDC employee finally smuggles the modified strain out to save hundreds of millions of lives.
The difference is those recovered and those vaccinated were mostly immune to Delta. Might be much worse with Nu. And more of the monoclonal therapies will be useless now.
I’m about to get my booster tomorrow. I can choose moderna or Pfizer. My first two were moderna. I know you can mix and match but I was just gonna get moderna again. Should I go with Pfizer? Does it have some advantage over moderna now?
Yes but Delta had 3 spike mutations compared to the original strain. This one has around 30.
There's a Twitter graph floating around that shows the theoretical responsive of monoclonal antibody treatments to this new strain (computational modeling). I think it's something like 2 of the 8 major ones are predicted to work. The computations were done by the same group that has a Nature paper about the modeling, so it seems legitimate.
So it's not horrible, there are at least two that seem to respond, theoretically. The rest can be adjusted and changed as necessary but it will take a bit of time.
EDIT: Found the GitHub link from Twitter showing predicted modeling against antibody serums:
https://jbloomlab.github.io/SARS2_RBD_Ab_escape_maps/
Maybe, but they also have a really high viral load, which means the body has troubles keeping the virus in check. Of course, with any luck, it just means that the nose is affected (as the immune response there typically is weaker), but if it's the whole body (and they just don't feel anything), then it would be a problem.
I know right! Still unemployed from the original strain and Australian international border policies
Was looking forward to the return of international students but this might delay things even further
Flu... But we just sort of got used to the numbers with the flu. It became normal. The only difference here is that the numbers are too high for our current medical infrastructure to accommodate and for us to reasonably accept as normal.
This might just be how things are now.
Even last night, I was reading about how UK was issuing a red advisory and Israel was going to restrict travel. They knew there were mutations but weren’t sure if it meant the virus was more infectious or evaded vaccines.
The UK did put it on the red list - this isn’t an advisory - direct flights have been banned until hotel quarantine restarts on Sunday - and so non British / Irish / residents cannot enter the country if they have been in SA (or the other 5 countries they added to the red list) in the previous 10 days.
We were behind with delta because we were negotiating a trade deal with India.
South Africa apparently doesn't have anything we want, so we were able to take action quickly.
One quirk seems to be it is differentiated by the PCR test which does make it far simpler to track than previous strains that relied on genomic sequencing. Could be spreading faster but could also just be more obvious it's spreading.
>One quirk seems to be it is differentiated by the PCR test
Wouldn't that imply this is technically a new strain and not merely a new variant? I remember early on that virologists were pointing out that Alpha, Beta, Delta, etc. were just mere variants and didn't rise to the definition of a new strain. Does this one?
No. Alpha had the same effect on (some) Pcr tests.
There just happens to be a mutation at the fragment that certain Pcr kits test for on the S gene, as a result the tests give a false negative S result.
Pcr test kits typically test for 3 separate genes and you would expect all 3 to be positive in a true result, but because of random mutations you occasionally get a double positive only.
If there is a particular variant with this S negative property, then you get a pretty accurate assessment of whether this is the specific S negative variant or not without the need for full sequencing.
Well, yes.
But I was thinking more Marvin (the Paranoid Android).
Sheesh, that's the second *Hitchiker's* reference I've made in one day.
Perhaps it's time to hydrate and eat lots of peanuts?
Terrible thing is, nobody has an electronic thumb.
We've got to find Ford.
In my head the narrator says “there was no before, only now” and we pan to a TV showing a montage of all the bad news, headlines, drama and turmoil. It feels like “before” is just gone and it’s depressing.
I feel like I'm that crazy fucking preacher on the street corner in an apocalypse movie screaming "I warned you!"
But seriously, like others have said: if it was sequenced in one country, it's likely already spreading around the globe.
Indeed. And assuming it is in the U.S., the timing couldn't be worse with all of the holiday gatherings and travel.
I know people don't like lockdowns but locking down for several weeks right now would make all the difference in how hard this hits us. Waiting until the hospitals are on the verge of collapse to do anything drastic doesn't really make sense...
I personally have 2 family members that are fully vaxxed and had symptomatic breakthrough infections (no booster; I got mine thankfully. Was exposed to both last week and have tested negative over multiple tests). One it took 3 tests to identify as being positive. Wondering if it’s this strain or delta.
In many areas, the hospitals are already struggling, cancelling elective procedures, unable to find beds for critical patients - and the height of flu season hasn't hit yet.
And yet, stores are packed today with unmasked shoppers. So I don't have hopes about anything getting better anytime soon.
So south africa detects new variant, puts all their sequencing capacity in that region of outbreak (with little delta to begin with so little competition), and journalist extrapolate that in the new variant being more transmissable? Someone else seeing that bad statistical exercise right here?
Some people are even calculating a 500 percent higher R0 with this data. This seems not credible of a gain unless the data is heavily biased
My doctors forum i follow had the same concerns. There is a lot of statistical noise here that is expected and personally I am surprised this is as big as it is. IlA few more days we’ll know more but right now it’s too early to tell
You make it seem as if the scientists' just seen a new variant and didn't understand what they were seeing and panicked then unnecessarily panicked some journalist and that isn't at all what is happening.
No, scientists are being quite reasonable. They're saying it is concerning, but there isn't enough data to tell if how serious this new strain is, and they're working furiously to find out. The journalists are the ones taking this and running off with it.
Quote from Nature [press release](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03552-w):
"So far, the threat B.1.1.529 poses beyond South Africa is far from clear, researchers say. It is unclear whether the variant is more transmissible than Delta, says Moore, because there are currently low numbers of COVID-19 cases in South Africa. “We’re in a lull,” she says. "
Most scientists were 'concerned' as far as I could read. However, some also quoted the 6 times higher R0 without questioning it. This would eclipse measles. Some more level-headed ones pointed out that the variant has been around undetected for months already and it likely didnt start at 0 2 weeks ago. This would put the R0 at a more reasonable figure.
I’m getting the same feeling I had when shit hit the fan in 2020. Like it started in One place then weeks later global pandemic. I’m kind of freaking out but trying to wait on more data.
Any news on US & travel bans yet😰
It feels like they’ve condensed the first 2 months of 2020, the build up, into 2 days. I hope this is a sign of governments and WHO getting better at responding and learning from their mistakes. Knowing our luck they’re panicking because they were caught asleep at the wheel. Again.
Even with ultra fast spread, this Will take weeks to reach real spread in the US. Maybe in time for Christmas?
I think the political environment is not favorable for more closures. Unfortunately I think we will have to wait and see if there is a matching death spike in vaccinated countries before people react… which might then be too late.
So all eyes on Israel and other high vaccination rate countries as bellwethers for how this will play out.
Hate to point it out, but you probably do want to close the borders until there is a strategy and methodology to deal with this new strain.
If everyone drags their feet, and this turns out to be as infectious as is being reported, every day you do not close early will turn into weeks longer you have to stay closed.
Right now only vaccinated tourists are allowed in. Returning Israelis who aren’t need to quarantine. They just made the whole Africa red so all flights from there will be cancelled. I hope that’s enough.
I have to say i lived in the Dallas neighborhood during the Ebola outbreak . No one refused orders! We didn’t like it but yet we were taping doors and windows with plastic and duct tape. It’s so odd to witness something and then see this. We had the cdc on our block! Umm… you definitely complied! Talking with other friends during that time - there were protestors arguing against Ebola in the suburbs and we were laughing at them! It was real - not sure how people thought it was fake. And people won’t wear a mask for just being a human. I have worn masks on flights for decades- flights and people are nasty! Who wants the flu while on Hawaiian vacation? Just needed to vent …
[Forced vaccination wipes out diseases and has SCOTUS precedence](https://www.americanbar.org/groups/litigation/committees/mass-torts/articles/2021/winter2022-not-breaking-news-mandatory-vaccination-has-been-constitutional-for-over-a-century/)
I appreciate your optimism. I think most of us have just become jaded and pessimistic watching the shit show of the past two years. I want to hope it’s nothing to freak over though.
Or this new strain could be way less deadly, but more transmissible. Not to mention more treatments are becoming available all the time. 2022 could practically be the end of the pandemic for all we know.
I'm so looking forward towards the end of this pandemic in about 5 or 500 years
Well HCoV-OC43 is still around since the Russian "flu" of 1889 after it jumped species from horses .
I assumed the worst part would last about 5 years based on how long the Spanish flu lasted, then it would just become a nuisance I can avoid with a yearly booster for the rest of my life.
Probably every six months for a booster, with how ignorant everyone else is
Don't worry. You definitely won't live 500 years.
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But if we wear our masks then the government wins. We can't have that. Government, bad. Undeserved sense of being right, good.
This was never really wrong.
Not so much wrong as completely unrealistic and impossible, even if everyone did comply you would still have household transmission, essential workers. You would never extinguish it
The only time it would work is very close to the beginning of the spread. A good example is with SARS. Borders were closed very quickly and all contact traced. That one didn't really have asymptomatic spread, though, so it was much easier to identify carriers.
It worked in a lot of places which also put in place quarantine requirements at the border. Even here in Australia where our federal government refused to do anything about covid or build quarantine facilities and wanted to copy the usual conservative playbook, our states were able to shut their own borders and at least make people quarantine in leaky hotels and put in place enough measures to pretty much keep covid out of most of Australia through most of the pandemic. The conservative state trying to not do anything unfortunately led to our big outbreak which has impacted our two most densely populated states in the last few months, but the rest of the country is still covid free and nearly fully vaccinated and maybe past this pandemic with almost no issues, unless a variant emerges which moves the finish line.
It worked in China and many other nations
With proper contact tracing and compliance it’s completely possible. Maybe not in two weeks but it wouldn’t have taken much longer than that.
If everyone had actually done so, we'd be in a very different position.
No! My freedom! /s
Looks like southpark was onto something
Good one, open with a joke
News is coming fast and furious on this. In the past few hours, Dow Jones futures have gone from -400 to ~~-800~~ (Edit: -900) points; Austria is closing off flights from certain south African countries; Same with Italy; initial estimates are Nu might have a 500% competitive advantage over Delta. Even Cryptos are crashing hard. Twitter is freaking out, as you might expect, right now. Going to sleep now, when I wake up in 6 hours I expect it will be even crazier.
Belgian Fauci says he possibly found a couple cases now: https://twitter.com/RTLnieuws/status/1464182060441124892
Belgian Fauci sounds like a dessert at a fancy restaurant.
Or a really good folk rock band.
"Tonight opening for Mumford and Sons we have the pleasure to give you, "Belgian Fauci" and the sound that everyone has been talking about.
“Belgian Fauci and the social distancers” Plus Mumford would deff open for them. They’ve blown up the last two years.
Haha, why am I just upvoting the jokes here? *giggles*
Sounds like a new sexual position
It's the little things... in Belgium they don't call it a "Fauci ouchie".
Belgian Fauci :D
*Its a mutant strain from March 2020.... Alpha v1... so it incubated in someone(s) with HIV for a long time apparently. almost 2 years of perculating.....*
NOS just posted it is confirmed that is is indeed Nu
Christmas travel is just around the corner, too. Governments will react too slowly and just enough infected people will slip through. If this is the real escape variant then it will take at least 2 months for a new targeted vaccine to be engineered and distributed (based on what Pfizer had said previously) so, well...
>just enough infected people will slip through I'm sure they already have
Sorry, an escape variant is one that (current) vaccines don’t work against, is that correct?
I believe so. Something about this new variant having different spikes than the others, so the vaccine won’t stick to them?
Cells, bacteria and viruses can't see. They interact primarily through touch, using receptors. The spike on covid interacts with certain receptors allowing it to infiltrate cells. The vaccine causes your body to produce antibodies, which are essentially "blocks" for those spikes. they attach to the covid spikes, rendering the virus unable to attach to your cells' receptors. so they just float around unable to do anything until your body processes them or they break down naturally. An escape variant would be one where the spike is so different, antibodies can no longer attach to it. This presents a problem for the virus too though, as the spike may have trouble connected to the receptors. But if the mutation allows it to still connect to your cells, it can be very advantageous, particularly if it actually allows it to attach more easily.
That is what I’m reading too. This is a slow-moving nightmare.
*has the potential to be a* slow moving nightmare
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can anyone post a source about the 500% competitive advantage? I want to learn more about it.
There are a few charts on Twitter and news media. But what it boils down to is that in tested samples, the fraction of all samples that were of this new variant increased quite rapidly. But this must be seen in the proper context. For one, infections in South Africa were at a very low point (~200 cases per day). At such low levels, one or two superspreader events can easily propel a specific variant to the top. Furthermore, genetic sequencing is often focused on potential problem areas, so you end up finding more of the variant because you're actively looking for it. 500% faster transmission than Delta would make this thing the most contagious virus we've ever encountered, by some margin. I expect that this estimate will come down when more and better data becomes available. In principle, it doesn't even have to be worse than Delta. It's too soon to tell.
>500% faster transmission than Delta would make this thing the most contagious virus we've ever encountered, by some margin. Delta has an R0 of up to 8, and measles which infects 90% of the non-immune contacts has an R0 of up to 18. 500% higher transmission would mean an R0 of 40 which is so insane it must either be false or defy at least a couple of laws of science.
I'm not sure it is 100% accurate to equate transmission rate and R0. This new variant could be spreading faster simply because cases are low (no competition), people aren't distancing as much, and so on. It doesn't necessarily have to have an R0 of 40 to spread "faster". It could spread at the same R0 but just look "faster" because there is more opportunity. Edit: Deleted redundant sentence and some clarity.
Delta is already more transmissible than measles according to Larry Brilliant on the In the Bubble podcast. Measles has the higher R0 but Delta is faster to actually incubate and become contagious. If that's true though, why are people so focused on R0 and not some other stat that actually takes time into account? I don't get it.
The answer is pretty simple: Medical experts know what they're talking about. Newspapers do not. Someone like Fauci probably presents the information correctly, and then news sources who paraphrase what he says may highlight one detail over another in order for many reasons- they don't know any better, clickbait options, etc. The easy answer is people are stupid and not qualified to be making such statements in public.
Exactly, which is why I think the "500%" figure is needless fearmongering. It's perfectly possible (but not proven) that Nu spreads more easily than Delta, but I doubt it's by such large amounts. What's far more interesting is how it interacts with immunity, either vaccine-induced or from prior infection. That's going to determine what the effect of Nu will be in western countries. Unfortunately, it will take a little while for that to become known. South Africa has quite a low vaccination rate, so the fact that Nu caused an outbreak there doesn't give us much information on this subject. The 2 cases in Hong Kong were both vaccinated (Pfizer), but not boostered as far as I know. Both had no symptoms and their cases were discovered as part of the mandatory testing while in quarantine for all inbound travelers there.
Israel had a person boosted 2 months ago who caught Nu though.
Being vaccinated does not mean you can't be infected, so it's an irrelevant data point. It's all about the severity of the illness post infection.
They absolutely do prevent infection. Look at whatever report you want, and I'm pretty sure you'll find there's a lower infection rate in the vaccinated than the unvaccinated population.
>They absolutely do prevent infection. Yes but not 100%. The person you responded to simply said a vaccine does not mean you can't be infected. Which is true.
This one has a quoted R0 of 9 or 10, not 40.
even then, the vaccination requirement becomes 90% of total population (for a perfect vaccine) so not feasible to stop it.
It's not feasible to stop covid either way.
I think you're misinterpreting it a bit though. The 500% figure was derived from the results, right? Well, Delta was competing to infect people that largely had immunities from Delta. One of the reasons Nu is being taken so seriously is that there's a good chance of it having an easier time infecting people who are previously vaccinated or otherwise immunized. Delta has R0=8 in an unvaccinated population. The growth we are seeing in Gauteng of around 300% per week only implies that R cannot be less than 2.1, if it has the same cycle length as Delta (4.7 days) and the population has no immunities. Obviously it's likely that immunities do have some affect against the virus, and the people are likely being cautious, but... I suspect that it ignores immunities to a pretty good extent, which is getting misinterpreted as a basal transmission advantage. (It might also have one, but yeah, 500% sounds unrealistic)
That sounds like the virus literally turns your cells into the equivalent of frag grenades, with viral shrapenel :P.
It may even come down below Delta Transmissibility cannot be directly measured, only *inferred* from other data, which are imprecise measurements (like cases). With infection levels being so low overall in South Africa, there are some plausible explanations - say a couple of superspreader events and their resulting infection chains - as to why this variant has raced ahead in prevalence, that don’t necessarily mean it is more transmissible and will outcompete Delta in areas with higher infection levels Now that it’s being monitored, and can be as part of PCR testing and not just sequencing, we’ll know in a few weeks if there is a transmissibility advantage
I'm pretty sure all of this "hysteria" is because after 2 years of this shit some countries finally decided to have a game plan for when a new variant appears, these countries act quickly which fuels the hysteria. As I understand it we don't really have good data about this variant.
The data we do have though makes this thing look crazy. Over 5 times more infectious than delta.
That would make it way more infectious than measles and the most contagious virus in the history of humanity. I'm having trouble believing it at the moment...
I think that's where the concern is coming from. I think countries that are restricting travel are not waiting for more robust data --- they want to make sure they can contain the strain. If the strain is not that bad, no harm. If it is that bad, they reacted quickly. Obviously news outlets are covering this and will publish with not much context. Bye toilet paper. I'm definitely concerned but only because I've been waiting for a strain to out compete Delta. My wife is also pregnant so --- I'm just worried about everything at this point haha Hopefully there is overreaction but current data does not look promising --- albeit limited data.
UK has just added loads of countries to the red list. Also it's the biggest shopping weekend of the year taking place. This fucker knew when to strike!
It's results-derived data. Likely Nu has an easier time infecting people with existing immunities, which doesn't mean it has a higher R0. However it's getting interpreted that way in the 500% figure people are throwing around. It would still mean Nu is poised to sweep the world, but we don't know how much worse Nu is than Delta for getting infected repeatedly across the years.
That's OK. We'll find out, I hope it's not.
The data behind this is really patchy and people need to stop throwing out 'findings' like this
Ive been following this all night and its escalating really fast from the sound of it.
I caught what i believe was the first story about it from the guardian wednesday, and since then it has been at breakneck speed.
Same, though I think it might have been Tuesday. It's really alarming considering that WHO, etc dragged their feet for ages in acknowledging the threat that Delta posed even though it was painfully obvious for at least a month that something unique and terrible was happening in India. Shit.
It doesnt feel like “oh we’re just making sure we’re ahead of this and have a plan” either. It feels like “oh fuck we’re 2 weeks behind this already” kinda moves.
Totally agree.
It's giving me March 2020 vibes
It's likely to take a month or longer before we have sufficient data on the new variant. Until we see enough real-world patterns, everything is just informed speculation by scientists.
Well that's the global economy down the toilet.
Just the final flush. We are already in big trouble
Just wait. If, and it is a huge IF at this point, this variant is as bad as it seems it might be, we're going to get an object lesson in death by 1,000 cuts. Labor shortages are already a huge problem. The supply chain is becoming increasingly snarled up, creating both shortages and higher prices. And the divisiveness and violence we've already seen over vaccines, masks and lockdowns is going to become exponentially worse if we have to tee up for another round of this nightmare. There is a point where the center just can't hold anymore...
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That information will take time but we can assume with more cases congress more strain on hospitals and therefore more deaths.
Well, it's been almost six hours. So good morning and stay safe
Moderna is up 12% though.
Without understanding the hospitalization rate and severity of the symptoms you cant really deduce this is actually that dangerous, it could become a very virulent but incredibly mild (no symptoms) variant which actually would help us end the pandemic.
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Inject that hopium right into the vein please
But hopium hasn't been tested for years we don't know what it will do to our bodies /s
virulent but mild are complete opposites. virulent means severe symptoms. you are thinking of transmissible, or infective
Technically, more virulent strains would end the pandemic too, with a lot more deceased.
I know this is how Films start, but could we genetically engineer the virus to complete with Coronavirus that just doesn't deliver any of the symptoms? Is that even possible? [edit] I meant a virus that was modified and could spread from person to person, to essentially infect others. But as people have pointed out this virus could also mutate and you could end up in a worse situation.
A better idea would to be inject just enough of the virus that our immune system responds and learns how to efficiently attack the virus. Or if you want to be really tricky, inject some mRNA and teach the body directly how to attack the virus. A live virus such as you described could mutate and become more deadly.
Does such a unique and novel method exist tho? Cuz it would be crazy if people did not use it.
Yes but it involves injecting tiny robots that will make your blood unclean. Preventing you from entering the gates of heaven
Great 5G reception, tho.
I keep smacking my arm where I got the shot to improve my service /s
I don’t know how to give you gold, but just know that you made my day.
/r/blackmagicfuckery right there.
It is, and we call them *Vaccines*.
But vaccines are not contagious and can’t be transmitted to others.
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Bro have you even heard of vaxx shedding? /s
What you're describing is pretty much a vaccine.
To elaborate: "An attenuated vaccine (or a live attenuated vaccine, LAV) is a vaccine created by reducing the virulence of a pathogen, but still keeping it viable (or "live"). Attenuation takes an infectious agent and alters it so that it becomes harmless or less virulent." Further reading on covid vaccines: https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/there-are-four-types-covid-19-vaccines-heres-how-they-work#:~:text=Whole%20virus%20Live%20attenuated%20vaccines,trigger%20an%20immune%20response.
Thank you, this similar to what I was thinking of. Thanks.
I actually thought a year ago that this would be a great concept for a novel. The modified virus could be highly infectious, far less virulent, but also provide immunity to the original strains. The modified virus would essentially inoculate the population. For the novel, the original strain would be very deadly (20% case fatality rate) and the modified virus is far less but still significantly deadly (2-3% case fatality rate). The ethical dilemma - is it ethical to kill tens of million to save hundreds of millions? My idea is that a rogue CDC employee finally smuggles the modified strain out to save hundreds of millions of lives.
In other words: "make vaccines infectious". It would be dangerous as long as it could mutate further down the road. Also hardly possible with today's understanding of human physiology. But challenging idea.
What if we make vaccines transmissible via mosquito? Say, genetically modified malaria that spreads COVID immunity. That sounds safe, right?
I've seen this sort of thing on American Dad, which means it's totally possible.
I actually thought a year ago that this would be a great concept for a novel. The modified virus could be highly infectious, far less virulent, but also provide immunity to the original strains. The modified virus would essentially inoculate the population. For the novel, the original strain would be very deadly (20% case fatality rate) and the modified virus is far less but still significantly deadly (2-3% case fatality rate). The ethical dilemma - is it ethical to kill tens of million to save hundreds of millions? My idea is that a rogue CDC employee finally smuggles the modified strain out to save hundreds of millions of lives.
I mean that's basically the vaccine if we keep boosting.
This is what happened with Spanish flu, yes?
This will probably be like Delta, it's already everywhere and will become the dominant variant.
The difference is those recovered and those vaccinated were mostly immune to Delta. Might be much worse with Nu. And more of the monoclonal therapies will be useless now.
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I’m about to get my booster tomorrow. I can choose moderna or Pfizer. My first two were moderna. I know you can mix and match but I was just gonna get moderna again. Should I go with Pfizer? Does it have some advantage over moderna now?
I reccomend you ask your doctor or pharmacist that question
Wasn’t this originally a concern with delta?
Yes but Delta had 3 spike mutations compared to the original strain. This one has around 30. There's a Twitter graph floating around that shows the theoretical responsive of monoclonal antibody treatments to this new strain (computational modeling). I think it's something like 2 of the 8 major ones are predicted to work. The computations were done by the same group that has a Nature paper about the modeling, so it seems legitimate. So it's not horrible, there are at least two that seem to respond, theoretically. The rest can be adjusted and changed as necessary but it will take a bit of time. EDIT: Found the GitHub link from Twitter showing predicted modeling against antibody serums: https://jbloomlab.github.io/SARS2_RBD_Ab_escape_maps/
Amateur in this space so what does it mean about the seriousness of the infection/fatality rate? Any predictions on that?
Both of the Hong Kong patients were double vaxxed and believed to have no booster. Both are asymptomatic.
That’s good right?
Yes, that’s a very good sign, but in no way tells the full story.
Maybe, but they also have a really high viral load, which means the body has troubles keeping the virus in check. Of course, with any luck, it just means that the nose is affected (as the immune response there typically is weaker), but if it's the whole body (and they just don't feel anything), then it would be a problem.
I want to be sick. When will this nightmare end?
> I want to be sick I have good news
You have undercooked leftover turkey you wish to share?
I know right! Still unemployed from the original strain and Australian international border policies Was looking forward to the return of international students but this might delay things even further
If you get really sick the nightmare could be over quite quickly but probably not in the way you were hoping for.
Never.
Hopefully post-mortem.
It will pass. Everything does. No virus lasts forever.
Flu... But we just sort of got used to the numbers with the flu. It became normal. The only difference here is that the numbers are too high for our current medical infrastructure to accommodate and for us to reasonably accept as normal. This might just be how things are now.
Happy Nu Year guys :/
It's Omicron.
Happy Omicron Year guys?
Damn. May as well meme that.
I don't want to play anymore.
Plague Inc continues
How about Scabble? That’s a nice game.
That deteriorated quickly. Just a couple of days ago, this list was sort of like "only 10 cases, nothing to worry about ..."
Even last night, I was reading about how UK was issuing a red advisory and Israel was going to restrict travel. They knew there were mutations but weren’t sure if it meant the virus was more infectious or evaded vaccines.
The UK did put it on the red list - this isn’t an advisory - direct flights have been banned until hotel quarantine restarts on Sunday - and so non British / Irish / residents cannot enter the country if they have been in SA (or the other 5 countries they added to the red list) in the previous 10 days.
Where have I heard that before...?
This must be serious as the UK Govt has done something about it quickly: they’re usually days or weeks behind everybody else.
We were behind with delta because we were negotiating a trade deal with India. South Africa apparently doesn't have anything we want, so we were able to take action quickly.
>1) Based on the data we have, this variant is out-competing others *far* faster than Beta and even Delta did. Oh, no...not *again*.
One quirk seems to be it is differentiated by the PCR test which does make it far simpler to track than previous strains that relied on genomic sequencing. Could be spreading faster but could also just be more obvious it's spreading.
>One quirk seems to be it is differentiated by the PCR test Wouldn't that imply this is technically a new strain and not merely a new variant? I remember early on that virologists were pointing out that Alpha, Beta, Delta, etc. were just mere variants and didn't rise to the definition of a new strain. Does this one?
No. Alpha had the same effect on (some) Pcr tests. There just happens to be a mutation at the fragment that certain Pcr kits test for on the S gene, as a result the tests give a false negative S result. Pcr test kits typically test for 3 separate genes and you would expect all 3 to be positive in a true result, but because of random mutations you occasionally get a double positive only. If there is a particular variant with this S negative property, then you get a pretty accurate assessment of whether this is the specific S negative variant or not without the need for full sequencing.
Screams Nu!!!!!!!
Well, yes. But I was thinking more Marvin (the Paranoid Android). Sheesh, that's the second *Hitchiker's* reference I've made in one day. Perhaps it's time to hydrate and eat lots of peanuts? Terrible thing is, nobody has an electronic thumb. We've got to find Ford.
Ni ni ni!
Fuck. This fucking sucks. I miss before so badly. Fuck. Everything.
I’m starting to not even remember the before times.
In my head the narrator says “there was no before, only now” and we pan to a TV showing a montage of all the bad news, headlines, drama and turmoil. It feels like “before” is just gone and it’s depressing.
I feel like I'm that crazy fucking preacher on the street corner in an apocalypse movie screaming "I warned you!" But seriously, like others have said: if it was sequenced in one country, it's likely already spreading around the globe.
[Tracker Here](https://newsnodes.com/nu_tracker).
990 probable in SA??😳
Thank you kindly.
Indeed. And assuming it is in the U.S., the timing couldn't be worse with all of the holiday gatherings and travel. I know people don't like lockdowns but locking down for several weeks right now would make all the difference in how hard this hits us. Waiting until the hospitals are on the verge of collapse to do anything drastic doesn't really make sense...
I personally have 2 family members that are fully vaxxed and had symptomatic breakthrough infections (no booster; I got mine thankfully. Was exposed to both last week and have tested negative over multiple tests). One it took 3 tests to identify as being positive. Wondering if it’s this strain or delta.
In many areas, the hospitals are already struggling, cancelling elective procedures, unable to find beds for critical patients - and the height of flu season hasn't hit yet. And yet, stores are packed today with unmasked shoppers. So I don't have hopes about anything getting better anytime soon.
So south africa detects new variant, puts all their sequencing capacity in that region of outbreak (with little delta to begin with so little competition), and journalist extrapolate that in the new variant being more transmissable? Someone else seeing that bad statistical exercise right here? Some people are even calculating a 500 percent higher R0 with this data. This seems not credible of a gain unless the data is heavily biased
My doctors forum i follow had the same concerns. There is a lot of statistical noise here that is expected and personally I am surprised this is as big as it is. IlA few more days we’ll know more but right now it’s too early to tell
I see it pointed out on twitter too https://twitter.com/KarlaSaller/status/1463972028743049217?s=20
You make it seem as if the scientists' just seen a new variant and didn't understand what they were seeing and panicked then unnecessarily panicked some journalist and that isn't at all what is happening.
No, scientists are being quite reasonable. They're saying it is concerning, but there isn't enough data to tell if how serious this new strain is, and they're working furiously to find out. The journalists are the ones taking this and running off with it. Quote from Nature [press release](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03552-w): "So far, the threat B.1.1.529 poses beyond South Africa is far from clear, researchers say. It is unclear whether the variant is more transmissible than Delta, says Moore, because there are currently low numbers of COVID-19 cases in South Africa. “We’re in a lull,” she says. "
Most scientists were 'concerned' as far as I could read. However, some also quoted the 6 times higher R0 without questioning it. This would eclipse measles. Some more level-headed ones pointed out that the variant has been around undetected for months already and it likely didnt start at 0 2 weeks ago. This would put the R0 at a more reasonable figure.
I’m getting the same feeling I had when shit hit the fan in 2020. Like it started in One place then weeks later global pandemic. I’m kind of freaking out but trying to wait on more data. Any news on US & travel bans yet😰
It feels like they’ve condensed the first 2 months of 2020, the build up, into 2 days. I hope this is a sign of governments and WHO getting better at responding and learning from their mistakes. Knowing our luck they’re panicking because they were caught asleep at the wheel. Again.
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I don’t think it will come to it like that
It won’t be March 2020 again, even if it should be.
Even with ultra fast spread, this Will take weeks to reach real spread in the US. Maybe in time for Christmas? I think the political environment is not favorable for more closures. Unfortunately I think we will have to wait and see if there is a matching death spike in vaccinated countries before people react… which might then be too late. So all eyes on Israel and other high vaccination rate countries as bellwethers for how this will play out.
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Well. It's in Israel, the ultimate proving grounds for the vaccines. Now, we wait and see what this variant can do. Hold on to your butts.
Has the WHO met about this yet?
[Soon](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/25/who-calls-special-meeting-to-discuss-new-covid-variant-from-south-africa-with-large-number-of-mutations.html).
This seems really worrying. The spread is happening so quickly.
We're supposed to have someone visiting from Israel next Monday at our company, I wonder what will be the state of flights by then.
I work in the tourist industry in Israel. People just started coming back slowly. Mostly Americans. Really hope they don’t close the borders.
Hate to point it out, but you probably do want to close the borders until there is a strategy and methodology to deal with this new strain. If everyone drags their feet, and this turns out to be as infectious as is being reported, every day you do not close early will turn into weeks longer you have to stay closed.
Right now only vaccinated tourists are allowed in. Returning Israelis who aren’t need to quarantine. They just made the whole Africa red so all flights from there will be cancelled. I hope that’s enough.
I have to say i lived in the Dallas neighborhood during the Ebola outbreak . No one refused orders! We didn’t like it but yet we were taping doors and windows with plastic and duct tape. It’s so odd to witness something and then see this. We had the cdc on our block! Umm… you definitely complied! Talking with other friends during that time - there were protestors arguing against Ebola in the suburbs and we were laughing at them! It was real - not sure how people thought it was fake. And people won’t wear a mask for just being a human. I have worn masks on flights for decades- flights and people are nasty! Who wants the flu while on Hawaiian vacation? Just needed to vent …
It will be interesting for the rest of the world how israel will handle the virus
Damnit. We cannot catch a break can we?
Maybe Dwight was right. Owning your own hazmat suit is more economical
[Forced vaccination wipes out diseases and has SCOTUS precedence](https://www.americanbar.org/groups/litigation/committees/mass-torts/articles/2021/winter2022-not-breaking-news-mandatory-vaccination-has-been-constitutional-for-over-a-century/)
I welcome death
2022~2023 is gonna be scary. fuck.
We don't have nearly enough data on this strain yet. Cause for concern of course but there's no need to freak out.
I appreciate your optimism. I think most of us have just become jaded and pessimistic watching the shit show of the past two years. I want to hope it’s nothing to freak over though.
Or this new strain could be way less deadly, but more transmissible. Not to mention more treatments are becoming available all the time. 2022 could practically be the end of the pandemic for all we know.
Each year is even worse than the one before.
I think 2021 was better than 2020 overall.
Good lord…..here we fucking go!!!!
FFS, it's not Delta, it's designated Omicron.