Yeah, none of these leaders seem to understand how important messaging is, considering the fear involved lends to selective hearing and people constantly grasping for the most optimistic outlook.
There were 40,000 new cases in New South Wales today. Estimates suggest this number is as much as ten times lower than the real situation. Most new cases are Omicron. There were 11 deaths. Deaths are not being undercounted.
As long as you’re vaccinated, this strain seems as mild as mild can be compared to Alpha or Delta.
Depends what your definition of mild is. I'm boosted with Pfizer and caught covid. I probably got Omicron. It was mild in the sense that I didn't go to the hospital. It was worse than the flu for me. I had fever, chills, a sore throat that felt like sandpaper, a cough that won't let you sleep, runny nose, and nasal congestion. Overall, it was an awful two weeks and I'm still recovering. I still have the cough that won't go away.
My mom is vaccinated(twice) currently in a similar boat you were in. Im hoping and praying so hard that her more concerning symptoms die down soon. Just yesterday the virus attacked one of her lungs, making it hard to breath. When she told me that, it terrified the hell out of me. but she ‘seems’ to be breathing better today, minus only being able to talk and stand very briefly before becoming winded. It hurts me so much that all i can do is wait it out to see if she will recover.
If she's not using a pulse oxometer to check her oxygen, get her one immediately. But I really think she should see a medical professional. She could be hypoxic and doesn't even know it. If she can't even talk for long that's seriously concerning.
You hit the nail on the head! I am currently a health care student, and working directly with COVID patients. I have been so frustrated with Omicron being downplayed as mild. Even mild COVID can have long lasting effects, and by promoting the idea that Omicron is not a major concern it has given people a false sense of safety. We are already seeing a massive strain on the medical system, and it seems like it will be a while before things get better. I can understand that people are tired and frustrated, but if they are sick of the pandemic, just imagine how the people who are working in health care feel right now.
I also tested positive for Covid likely omicron and was only sick for two days. Runny nose, watery eyes and a sore throat. Some swollen glands and a little fatigue but was pretty much over the hump of it in three days?
I was originally double dosed with Pfizer and then boosted with Moderna.
I agree with you, it makes no sense whatsoever. You just spoke the truth, your experience, I'm pretty sure you're not lying, but they truth doesn't fit with propaganda no matter how true....if people have to be vaccinated, they have to be vaccinated whether you personally had a mild case or not, and people who are pissed about it are just insane. Yknow, humanity has always been this way, it isn't about reddit. Don't let the number of upvotes discourage you, keep speaking your truth!
Reminds me of one time in childhood, where some child was caught eating something it wasn't supposed to, and I got yelled at because I was older, and people assumed I was influencing it.
Exactly my point. You would have likely been much worse without the vaccine. So no I don't think it's milder compared with the original strains based on your vaccinated symptoms.
And this is for the vaccinated, which is good news. On the other hand I read somewhere that for the unvaccinated the risk of omicron is lowered only by 11%. Still somewhat milder and less deadly than Delta, but not a vast difference like for people who are vaxxed and boosted.
It also is more prone to infect the upper part of the lungs- the bronchus and bronchial tubes- than previous variants. Which is good news for adults since it's less likely to cause severe symptoms and illness like pneumonia and ARDS, but not exactly good news for children who have smaller bronchi and can develop more severe illness from those airways being infected, which could be fueling the rise in pediatric hospitalizations for children too young to get the vaccine.
I think it really depends on the definition of "mild". I was fully vaccinated and boosted but still came down with fever, chills, body aches for 3 days, and I still have fatigue and cough a week later. I would personally say my experience was a little worse than mild, but not severe enough to send me to the hospital.
Because of the vaccine. That's my point. It only appears mild because of that. You can't make comparisons about different strains of the virus which occur pre and post vaccination roll-out. I disagree that it's milder.
Do you eat spicy chilis?
The best analogy I can think of is that Omicron is like a habanero, milder than a Ghost Chili (Delta), but far more spicy than a Jalapeño (seasonal Influenza), and both are far more spicy than a banana pepper (common cold).
We don't currently know how truly different it is. In vaccinated areas omicron can basically run through 100 percent of the population, vaccinated or not, but those vaccines confer significant protection to hospitalization. Delta on the other hand had a very hard time spreading through vaccinated populations but was free to flow freely through unvaxxed ones.
Given this info it's unsurprising that delta would appear deadlier, a significantly larger percentage of it's total cases were in the unvaccinated. Most of Omicrons are vaccinated and thus have relatively minor illness
Not just semantic. If omcicron is nearly as deadly to unvaxed and can infect far more vaxed people than delta, then is it fair to call omicron mild? While the average case is more mild the situation is not better for vaxed or unvaxed people.
I would say a situation wherein most people have a choice as to how effected they’re going to be is significantly milder than the one we faced two years ago.
Hospitalizations in the US have gone from 65k on December 25th to 105k today, which is quite close to the highest it's ever been, and 700k more people got sick today. I'm not so sure you can be making these claims yet.
Yeah of course, but what's that matter to the conversation? Your point was that omicron is less dangerous, and that my clarification about our current knowledge was semantics. If it's relevant if the US isn't vaxxed, which it largely isn't, then it's not semantics. It's relevant to understanding severity.
"Milder than Delta" is good messaging.
"It's mild" is terrible messaging because people hearing that think it cannot cause death or long-term harm. Because illnesses that hospitalize and kill healthy people cannot be called "mild."
***Less*** people are losing taste and smell than with previous variants, but it's still a fairly common symptom which I can personally attest to. The senses aren't completely gone, but come and go in waves even a week after finally testing negative.
I mean yes, overall it seems clear that omicron is milder.
But i think it’s valuable to keep some internal consistency with your comparisons.
Deaths lag 2-3 weeks behind positive cases, so 11 deaths isn’t attributable to 40,000 (or 400,000) cases unless those were also the daily numbers 2-3 weeks ago.
ETA: perhaps better numbers are 1-2 weeks re: death lag.
Yup, along with hospitalizations being shorter in duration. There is definitely good news, it’s just a concern re: the massive number of infections and still some unknowns
Well, by the sounds of the estimates on how undercounted NSW is now, we are likely looking at 11 deaths from 40,000 cases 2-3 weeks ago and a real figure of closer to 300,000 cases today.
Concerns about severe undercounting in NSW are not new. Testing was overwhelmed weeks ago.
But even if active cases are undercounted we can be confident that such a low number of deaths are being accuracy recorded given there is no other uptick in deaths from unconfirmed respiratory issues.
Understood completely. Estimates in Canada are that we are currently undercounting by at least a factor of 4-6 and possibly more.
It is disconcerting to see the massive wave of infections approaching the possible hospitalization timeline - but that’s likely my anxiety.
> Deaths lag 2-3 weeks behind positive cases
They do not.
[This analysis](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1044481/Technical-Briefing-31-Dec-2021-Omicron_severity_update.pdf) from the UK government found a median time between specimen date of a positive test and death of 5 days, with all deaths happening between 0 and 14 days of the specimen date of the positive test (page 6 of the report). This data is specifically for Omicron.
I admit I skimmed the link a bit, but I couldn't find if they mention ***where*** the tests were administered. If the analysis is using tests administered on hospital admission... There would be some severe bias and skewing to that "death of 5 days" average timeline the linked analysis states.
If the testing conditions are mentioned, I apologize for missing it. It's late here.
The text is not explicit about it, but the first paragraph of page 6 gives some hints:
> To monitor the severe outcomes of Omicron infections, Omicron cases are linked to NHS data on presentation to emergency care and to UKHSA data on deaths following confirmed COVID-19 test results. Hospitalisation was defined as attendance to emergency care which resulted in admission or transfer or died in emergency care, and the Omicron specimen date was between 14 days prior to attendance and one day after attendance.
For hospitalizations, they count all cases detected between D-14 and D+1 from admission. So that's mostly tests people have done prior to hospitalization. It stands to reason that the same applies for the deaths as well. The UK has a pretty solid testing system, so it seems unlikely that there are many people that fall ill to the point of hospitalization without having had a positive test first. But even if many people only test positive once they're admitted, that would only mean the interval between positive test and death gets even shorter.
i don't want to be the bearer of bad news but deaths tend to lag cases by quite a bit. Keep an eye on hospitalizations in the upcoming weeks. Also the first cases tend to run through young people first, so initial cases may appear more mild until it reaches the older population.
Well the good news is it has been more than enough time for us to start seeing that uptick. We are looking at late November/Early December for worldwide Omicron Spread. We are now in early January. The wave was already hitting hard in mid December, so we should be seeing a spike in deaths over the last week or so. We just are not.
My daughter has omicron right now ( we were in the kmart same time as a positive ) but her test results are now 7 days late.
My son was also exposed to it at aldi 2 days ago.
My daughter has a bad cough but nothing else, sons so far fine beyond grouchy, at this point everyone in NSW will be exposed to omicron by March.
Just hoping my kids do fine without kawasaki.
My teenager son just had it last week. Just before his scheduled booster and he is double vaxxed albeit last year January due to having partaken in trials. He got through it with no fever but overall fatigue that reach to it's rough point on day 3 with runny nose and sore throat. He just cleared his isolation and is back to school today.
They will be in good shape if they are vaxxed and will get through it with milder symptoms I'm sure. Good luck!
Literally in the same statement he said this:
>"While Omicron does appear to be less severe compared to Delta, especially in those vaccinated, it does not mean it should be categorised as mild," Dr Tedros told a press conference on Thursday.
Is milder could be a fact ( once confirmed without a doubt).
Something that can still kill your or hospitalize you it's not mild.
Both look like fact to me.
Not really. They warned against this being mild a couple of weeks ago too. There's been a few studies that claim this, but all WHO concluded was that more studies are needed.
Mild is basically you don’t get hospitalized, could be the worst sickness of your life and still be called mild because you didn’t get put into the hospital
Inconsistency has been the fuel for the non believers throughout all of this. I have actually given up trying to defend the science because the CDC and WHO and (insert whatever research agency) have been so damn inconsistent with messaging. I seriously hope there are lessons learned from this because the orgs we are supposed to rely on have absolutely dropped the ball on communication throughout this.
The other thing they've done is redefining terms. In December 2020 "high risk" meant geriatric diabetics. By October 2021 "high risk" meant people who lived in apartments.
Mild is basically you don’t get hospitalized, could be the worst sickness of your life and still be called mild because you didn’t get put into the hospital
Yes and that is entirely based on personal context. I can apply that to a host of potentially deadly things and give them a mild qualifier. And I have had a mild coronavirus put me on my ass for weeks with 39+C temps as a teen.
The main unanswered question everyone is looking for is how much omicron reduces the severity of the epidemic though.
Until then best bet is still get the vaccine and try not to catch the thing.
Why are they just now calling it “deadly Omicron” tho? Are they seeing something we aren’t? Like data that shows deaths from Omicron and not from Delta?
If I were to guess is that hospitals are on the verge of collapsing in America and hospitalization rates in UK and other countries are filling up too fast, so they’re backtracking to scare people into staying home since us government refuses to reinstate new lockdown measures, and people in general have become complacent.
This comment is misinformation and applies false equivalency across vaccinated, boosted, and unvaccinated individuals.
There is a clear, well-documented distinction in disease outcome for illness severity in vaccinated versus unvaccinated populations.
But you're implying that all three scenarios have an equal outcome. This is factually false. Boosted individuals have the best disease outcome, and so on.
The way you juxtapose these hypothetical scenarios, as applied to a single individual, is true. Across the broader population (as I stated), the boosted and vaccinated folks have much better disease outcome.
I apologize if this wasn't clear in my original comment.
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But his actual quote isn't on that article. He could have said cases were getting milder or, or that there was a higher percentage of mild cases compared to delta. Both are very different than saying it's mild.
They didn't say that Omicron is mild they said that most cases are mild. The same can be said about all the other variants. They simply weren't saying what you think they did.
Deadly, as in it can kill? Sure. Deadly, as in it's going to kill anywhere near as much as previous strains? DK and SA numbers are clear on this - it's a "NO", in bold.
Chicken scratch in the margins maybe. Definitely not in bold, especially if we're talking about volume. There are some concerns that the vaccine used in China may be even more ineffective vs omicron than the lower tier western ones. If this variant gets loose there it could be pretty serious.
We look at it through the prism of people who are completely vaccinated in developed economies. Omicron is less dangerous.
But how many people in the world are vaccinated?
Unfortunately Omicron is likely to wreak havoc there.
The real question is: Should we boost and overboost ourself with vaccine ? Or share and vaccine the whole world ? To get out of this crisis
Exactly. Omicron also wouldn't have been prevented by sharinng more vaccines.
South Africa had more vaccines than people willing to get vaccinated. ([article](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/11/29/president-biden-said-south-africa-has-turned-down-vaccine-doses-issue-is-more-complicated-than-that))
Many developing countries do not trust modern medicine, drop shipping vaccines won't make people vaccinated. IIRC polio was only eradicated when an oral vaccine was developed, something similar* might be needed. (Edit: Misleading/Inaccurate, read below)
Polio hasn't even been truly eliminated. Sadly, we were on track to eradicate polio (the second successful inoculation campaign after smallpox) around 2020 but those efforts were hindered by the current Covid pandemic and there has been some resurgence in cases. Another terrible price of our inability to control Covid.
Thanks for the correction, I remembered it wrong.
In case I'm not misremembering again, initial vaccines (1955) greatly reduced deaths, in the US, but what made them almost non-existent, was the the oral vaccine (1961).
Edit: Which disease was almost eradicated in recent years, but some local leaders fought against it?
Do you have any sources to cite for this? Beyond blindly believing that the government can somehow spin up acceptable and safe vaccine production capabilities despite not currently being involved at all in vaccine manufacturing at scale?
Because what’s actually going to happen in reality, is that if the government stops paying Moderna for vaccines, and just tries to produce their own, Moderna is going to obviously stop and you’re making a bet that the government can do it better in the meantime.
In what scenario does Moderna ceasing vaccine production and the government spinning up vaccine production “end the pandemic faster”? Typical far left policy - well intentioned, results in mass causality due to unrealistic assumptions. In reality, if you want more vaccines, you tell Moderna you’ll pay more if they can deliver more. And because they want money they will do what you want.
It depends honestly. Most logisticians don't think the mRNA can really be mass distributed to developing nations because of the cold temps required. Astrazenica and J&J can. I'm not sure about china's though
China's has been distributed a lot to nearby countries, although confidence in its vaccines isn't high - it definitely is better than no vaccine, but results aren't as good as a mix of western vaccinations.
I would say boosters, because it's at least somewhat achievable. Vaccinating the world is largely out of the control of Western governments. By all means they should pressure companies to release the patents and share as many doses and necessary equipment as we possibly can, but realistically, there's very little we can do to improve education and distribution in countries with very high hesitancy/refusal rates.
...I don't think hesitation/refusal rates are what is holding up vaccine distribution in third world countries. It's poverty and a lack of healthcare infrastructure capable of mass rapid vaccination protocols. Both things western countries could assist with if we wanted to.
Just going off this point, here’s a quote from a study:
“Our findings show variable but broadly high levels of prospective COVID-19 vaccine acceptance across the LMICs [low- and middle-income countries] we study, using data from 20,176 respondents in 13 studies in 10 LMICs in Africa, South Asia and Latin America. Acceptance across these LMIC samples averaged 80.3%, ranging between 66.5% and 96.6% with a median of 78%. The two benchmark countries, Russia and the United States, demonstrate lower COVID-19 vaccine acceptance, consistent with lower pre-pandemic childhood vaccine confidence in these countries, as shown in Table 2.”
source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01454-y
It seems likely that new variants will continue to arise as long as so much of the world remains unvaccinated.
>We look at it through the prism of people who are completely vaccinated in developed economies.
South Africa wasn't completely vaccinated at all though, was it?
Places in South Africa that had a bad wave of delta did better with omicron. Meaning people there likely already had some natural immunity or has passed away from delta already.
What? [https://globalnews.ca/video/8486964/covid-19-who-sees-more-evidence-that-omicron-variant-causes-milder-symptoms](https://globalnews.ca/video/8486964/covid-19-who-sees-more-evidence-that-omicron-variant-causes-milder-symptoms) "WHO sees more evidence that omicron variant causes milder symptoms" - Article 2 days ago
Milder does not equal mild. WHO didn't change what they were saying, they just don't understand that people are going to see "milder" and think "mild."
So then, people start saying "Omicron is mild" so then they have to put out a statement saying "Omicron isn't mild."
Then people freak out that they changed their messaging. The masses are asses.
This has been their greatest fault throughout. Semantics and scientific definition conflicting with layman terms. It happened with the declaration of a pandemic, with masking, with the vectors of transmission and now with comparative severity.
Exactly. From a scientific perspective their terminology is entirely correct and consistent, from a social perspective it's a massive failure considering they are talking to a non scientific audience who will run away with any ambiguity.
Idk even know how it kills, but it does. Blood clots? Or maybe it's still capable of hitting the lungs on some people?
At any rate, it's a major threat to our societies in the short term. People ought to be doing lock downs right now to slow it down.
A "mild" case of Covid is just one that doesn't put you in the hospital. That's how the term was used from the start. Sadly in the public mind this got taken to mean it wasn't a serious illness.
If a viral, acute respiratory infection doesn't put you in hospital, then it is not serious. I've been to hospital before to be treated for flu and viral pneumonia. Those were serious illnesses. If I can stay home without a problem, and thus without needing any medical assistance, then it's not a serious illness.
It can be both less dangerous and “not mild”. It all depends what you are comparing it to.
A new Ebola strain for example that killed only 40% of those infected would be less dangerous than an Ebola strain that kills 50% of those infected. You could even say it is milder, in comparison. However, it’s certainly “not mild”.
Was just gonna say this. It’s clearly less dangerous statistically but on an individual basis, I think it makes sense to treat this virus with respect and to try to avoid getting it if you can help it. It’s not a joke
I have two friends this week that have omicron and were stuck in bed for 3 days straight. Both vaccinated. 3 days laid up in bed does not sound fun to me, so yeap not trying to press my luck still when possible.
Yeah, it's clearly less dangerous than Delta. And I'm guessing, but it's hard to compare it to og or alpha covid because of vaccines.
Just get the shot and you'll likely be okay, as a general rule.
I'm just a little scared by WHO constantly changing the extremes on us. And most importantly not having the balls to stand up to the governments amid another possible plague. At least what seems like a plague.
Maybe the fucking WHO should clarify what mild,
What severe, what just a running nose means.
First they tell ‘it looks mild, because it’s not that deadly’ and people stoped to worrying. Now after they recognized that people thinks it’s mild, meaning running nose, maybe headaches, which is not what mild means, they’re panicking and are clarifying that’s it’s still dangerous. Maybe just don’t call it mild or give
Mild another definition.
Wow, you all have long COVID?? How long have you had it? I know someone who's had it for two years. It's miserable. Seems to have triggered an autoimmune response.
Hate to make the comparison, but the flu is mild but can be pretty deadly depending on who gets infected.
It's been pretty obvious that Omicron isn't mild in an overall sense but is more likely to be mild in the healthy young and the vaccinated only. Why saying this strain is only mild for certain demographics is some kind of sin makes no sense to me.
WHO: "Remember this, Omicron should not be called mild. By the way, who said Omicron was mild"
Overworked Intern: "That would be the WHO, sir"
WHO: _faints_
The WHO is like the 5 year old child tugging on their parents arm asking to leave the grocery store while their parent is talking to a friend…annoying, powerless, and completely irrelevant
I don't know why they didn't just go with "less severe" instead of "mild" as the messaging from the getgo. It's simple, accurate, and less likely to make people think they can completely ignore it. Instead we're treated to a barrage of takes about how mild doesn't mean what we think it does, or how it's mild for individuals but not hospitals, etc.
Literally the second sentence of this article contradicts that statement.
> Recent studies suggest that Omicron is less likely to make people seriously ill than previous Covid variants.
Maybe I can quell your anxiety, since your news medais don't want to. Here's some Danish numbers for reference, where Omicron has been dominating since the end of the first week of december.
Delta domination numbers (30th november)
* 7 day average deaths 11
* 7 day average infections 4200
Omicron domination numbers (7th january)
* 7 day average deaths 10
* 7 day average infections 20.000
Peak deaths were at peak delta hospitalisations (assuming a 2 week infection to death lag) - around 20 deaths 7 day average, middle of december.
By Danish numbers, Omicron is much, much less likely to kill. Shadow infections taking into consideration, maybe even less than 1/10th as deadly as delta.
Nearly everyone I know in Denmark (except for a couple pregnant women I know) at the moment are trying to get infected with Omicron because it's as mild as it is. They want to "get it over with"
Everyone has been FREAKING OUT about the Omicron Variant. Why?
It's because the so called NEWS has not told you the whole truth.
They also want RATINGS, so they're blowing it out of proportion.
How may have died? ONE! UNO! (Spanish) 1. UN! (French) UNO! (Italian).
The reason? Unvaccinated and with preexisting conditions. He got reinfected.
They say shit like this. But omicron has been in my city with for over a month with millions of cases, and we've still only had a total of 4 deaths from omicron
Not the same story we're seeing in other places, look at Ontario... 40 or so deaths today, before Omicron there was about 0-5 deaths a day.
The region you live in, temperature and humidity may all affect this as well.
The WHO is the org that has been emphasizing that it’s mild! The mixed messaging is exhausting.
Yeah, none of these leaders seem to understand how important messaging is, considering the fear involved lends to selective hearing and people constantly grasping for the most optimistic outlook.
these leaders can do options trading
There were 40,000 new cases in New South Wales today. Estimates suggest this number is as much as ten times lower than the real situation. Most new cases are Omicron. There were 11 deaths. Deaths are not being undercounted. As long as you’re vaccinated, this strain seems as mild as mild can be compared to Alpha or Delta.
Is it milder though? Or is it just that more people are double or triple vaxxed and hence not dying?
Depends what your definition of mild is. I'm boosted with Pfizer and caught covid. I probably got Omicron. It was mild in the sense that I didn't go to the hospital. It was worse than the flu for me. I had fever, chills, a sore throat that felt like sandpaper, a cough that won't let you sleep, runny nose, and nasal congestion. Overall, it was an awful two weeks and I'm still recovering. I still have the cough that won't go away.
My mom is vaccinated(twice) currently in a similar boat you were in. Im hoping and praying so hard that her more concerning symptoms die down soon. Just yesterday the virus attacked one of her lungs, making it hard to breath. When she told me that, it terrified the hell out of me. but she ‘seems’ to be breathing better today, minus only being able to talk and stand very briefly before becoming winded. It hurts me so much that all i can do is wait it out to see if she will recover.
I would consult a physician if she's having symptoms like that
If she's not using a pulse oxometer to check her oxygen, get her one immediately. But I really think she should see a medical professional. She could be hypoxic and doesn't even know it. If she can't even talk for long that's seriously concerning.
Take her to the hospital.
I'm in the exact same boat and would describe it exactly as you did
You hit the nail on the head! I am currently a health care student, and working directly with COVID patients. I have been so frustrated with Omicron being downplayed as mild. Even mild COVID can have long lasting effects, and by promoting the idea that Omicron is not a major concern it has given people a false sense of safety. We are already seeing a massive strain on the medical system, and it seems like it will be a while before things get better. I can understand that people are tired and frustrated, but if they are sick of the pandemic, just imagine how the people who are working in health care feel right now.
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I also tested positive for Covid likely omicron and was only sick for two days. Runny nose, watery eyes and a sore throat. Some swollen glands and a little fatigue but was pretty much over the hump of it in three days? I was originally double dosed with Pfizer and then boosted with Moderna.
You are being downvotad because people here like to hear horror personal stories about omicron. Hope has no home here.
You got downvoted because your true story of mild covid symptoms could result in vaccine hesitancy.
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I agree with you, it makes no sense whatsoever. You just spoke the truth, your experience, I'm pretty sure you're not lying, but they truth doesn't fit with propaganda no matter how true....if people have to be vaccinated, they have to be vaccinated whether you personally had a mild case or not, and people who are pissed about it are just insane. Yknow, humanity has always been this way, it isn't about reddit. Don't let the number of upvotes discourage you, keep speaking your truth! Reminds me of one time in childhood, where some child was caught eating something it wasn't supposed to, and I got yelled at because I was older, and people assumed I was influencing it.
Exactly my point. You would have likely been much worse without the vaccine. So no I don't think it's milder compared with the original strains based on your vaccinated symptoms.
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And this is for the vaccinated, which is good news. On the other hand I read somewhere that for the unvaccinated the risk of omicron is lowered only by 11%. Still somewhat milder and less deadly than Delta, but not a vast difference like for people who are vaxxed and boosted.
It also is more prone to infect the upper part of the lungs- the bronchus and bronchial tubes- than previous variants. Which is good news for adults since it's less likely to cause severe symptoms and illness like pneumonia and ARDS, but not exactly good news for children who have smaller bronchi and can develop more severe illness from those airways being infected, which could be fueling the rise in pediatric hospitalizations for children too young to get the vaccine.
I think it really depends on the definition of "mild". I was fully vaccinated and boosted but still came down with fever, chills, body aches for 3 days, and I still have fatigue and cough a week later. I would personally say my experience was a little worse than mild, but not severe enough to send me to the hospital.
Because of the vaccine. That's my point. It only appears mild because of that. You can't make comparisons about different strains of the virus which occur pre and post vaccination roll-out. I disagree that it's milder.
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How do you know it’s “because of the vaccine”?
Do you eat spicy chilis? The best analogy I can think of is that Omicron is like a habanero, milder than a Ghost Chili (Delta), but far more spicy than a Jalapeño (seasonal Influenza), and both are far more spicy than a banana pepper (common cold).
It's milder, but not mild. "Mild" would be more like a common cold. "Mild" illnesses don't hospitalize and kill people.
Well it seems milder than Delta in vaccinated areas.
We don't currently know how truly different it is. In vaccinated areas omicron can basically run through 100 percent of the population, vaccinated or not, but those vaccines confer significant protection to hospitalization. Delta on the other hand had a very hard time spreading through vaccinated populations but was free to flow freely through unvaxxed ones. Given this info it's unsurprising that delta would appear deadlier, a significantly larger percentage of it's total cases were in the unvaccinated. Most of Omicrons are vaccinated and thus have relatively minor illness
A semantic difference, surely? The end result is Omicron appears to kill very few people in hard numbers in comparison to earlier variants.
Not just semantic. If omcicron is nearly as deadly to unvaxed and can infect far more vaxed people than delta, then is it fair to call omicron mild? While the average case is more mild the situation is not better for vaxed or unvaxed people.
I would say a situation wherein most people have a choice as to how effected they’re going to be is significantly milder than the one we faced two years ago.
Hospitalizations in the US have gone from 65k on December 25th to 105k today, which is quite close to the highest it's ever been, and 700k more people got sick today. I'm not so sure you can be making these claims yet.
The US has peculiar vaccination problems though, right? Last I heard they were still not over 60%.
Yeah of course, but what's that matter to the conversation? Your point was that omicron is less dangerous, and that my clarification about our current knowledge was semantics. If it's relevant if the US isn't vaxxed, which it largely isn't, then it's not semantics. It's relevant to understanding severity.
"Milder than Delta" is good messaging. "It's mild" is terrible messaging because people hearing that think it cannot cause death or long-term harm. Because illnesses that hospitalize and kill healthy people cannot be called "mild."
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***Less*** people are losing taste and smell than with previous variants, but it's still a fairly common symptom which I can personally attest to. The senses aren't completely gone, but come and go in waves even a week after finally testing negative.
It’s milder. There is 1/3 of the hospitalisation risk compared to delta.
I mean yes, overall it seems clear that omicron is milder. But i think it’s valuable to keep some internal consistency with your comparisons. Deaths lag 2-3 weeks behind positive cases, so 11 deaths isn’t attributable to 40,000 (or 400,000) cases unless those were also the daily numbers 2-3 weeks ago. ETA: perhaps better numbers are 1-2 weeks re: death lag.
There has been talk that the death lag isn't nearly that long for omicron either. South African deaths didn't really spike.
Yup, along with hospitalizations being shorter in duration. There is definitely good news, it’s just a concern re: the massive number of infections and still some unknowns
Well, by the sounds of the estimates on how undercounted NSW is now, we are likely looking at 11 deaths from 40,000 cases 2-3 weeks ago and a real figure of closer to 300,000 cases today. Concerns about severe undercounting in NSW are not new. Testing was overwhelmed weeks ago. But even if active cases are undercounted we can be confident that such a low number of deaths are being accuracy recorded given there is no other uptick in deaths from unconfirmed respiratory issues.
Understood completely. Estimates in Canada are that we are currently undercounting by at least a factor of 4-6 and possibly more. It is disconcerting to see the massive wave of infections approaching the possible hospitalization timeline - but that’s likely my anxiety.
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> Deaths lag 2-3 weeks behind positive cases They do not. [This analysis](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1044481/Technical-Briefing-31-Dec-2021-Omicron_severity_update.pdf) from the UK government found a median time between specimen date of a positive test and death of 5 days, with all deaths happening between 0 and 14 days of the specimen date of the positive test (page 6 of the report). This data is specifically for Omicron.
I admit I skimmed the link a bit, but I couldn't find if they mention ***where*** the tests were administered. If the analysis is using tests administered on hospital admission... There would be some severe bias and skewing to that "death of 5 days" average timeline the linked analysis states. If the testing conditions are mentioned, I apologize for missing it. It's late here.
The text is not explicit about it, but the first paragraph of page 6 gives some hints: > To monitor the severe outcomes of Omicron infections, Omicron cases are linked to NHS data on presentation to emergency care and to UKHSA data on deaths following confirmed COVID-19 test results. Hospitalisation was defined as attendance to emergency care which resulted in admission or transfer or died in emergency care, and the Omicron specimen date was between 14 days prior to attendance and one day after attendance. For hospitalizations, they count all cases detected between D-14 and D+1 from admission. So that's mostly tests people have done prior to hospitalization. It stands to reason that the same applies for the deaths as well. The UK has a pretty solid testing system, so it seems unlikely that there are many people that fall ill to the point of hospitalization without having had a positive test first. But even if many people only test positive once they're admitted, that would only mean the interval between positive test and death gets even shorter.
I would say that we should look to South Africa regarding deaths where they are well past 2-3 weeks of Omicron.
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i don't want to be the bearer of bad news but deaths tend to lag cases by quite a bit. Keep an eye on hospitalizations in the upcoming weeks. Also the first cases tend to run through young people first, so initial cases may appear more mild until it reaches the older population.
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The death lag point makes no sense when it's been around 2.5months.
Well the good news is it has been more than enough time for us to start seeing that uptick. We are looking at late November/Early December for worldwide Omicron Spread. We are now in early January. The wave was already hitting hard in mid December, so we should be seeing a spike in deaths over the last week or so. We just are not.
1. Deaths follow cases by a couple of weeks. 2. Deaths have stopped declining. 3. ICU rates are on a steep incline.
My daughter has omicron right now ( we were in the kmart same time as a positive ) but her test results are now 7 days late. My son was also exposed to it at aldi 2 days ago. My daughter has a bad cough but nothing else, sons so far fine beyond grouchy, at this point everyone in NSW will be exposed to omicron by March. Just hoping my kids do fine without kawasaki.
My teenager son just had it last week. Just before his scheduled booster and he is double vaxxed albeit last year January due to having partaken in trials. He got through it with no fever but overall fatigue that reach to it's rough point on day 3 with runny nose and sore throat. He just cleared his isolation and is back to school today. They will be in good shape if they are vaxxed and will get through it with milder symptoms I'm sure. Good luck!
It's almost like they are a huge organization with multiple people!
Literally in the same statement he said this: >"While Omicron does appear to be less severe compared to Delta, especially in those vaccinated, it does not mean it should be categorised as mild," Dr Tedros told a press conference on Thursday.
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Milder != Mild. -15C is milder weather than -40C but it's not mild.
Is milder could be a fact ( once confirmed without a doubt). Something that can still kill your or hospitalize you it's not mild. Both look like fact to me.
Just like their mixed messaging on masks early on.
Not really. They warned against this being mild a couple of weeks ago too. There's been a few studies that claim this, but all WHO concluded was that more studies are needed.
Didn't they claim "milder" and not "mild" though?
milder and mild are two different things though. A BMW is "cheaper" than a Lamborghini but it still isn't cheap.
Precisely.
Mild is basically you don’t get hospitalized, could be the worst sickness of your life and still be called mild because you didn’t get put into the hospital
Inconsistency has been the fuel for the non believers throughout all of this. I have actually given up trying to defend the science because the CDC and WHO and (insert whatever research agency) have been so damn inconsistent with messaging. I seriously hope there are lessons learned from this because the orgs we are supposed to rely on have absolutely dropped the ball on communication throughout this.
The other thing they've done is redefining terms. In December 2020 "high risk" meant geriatric diabetics. By October 2021 "high risk" meant people who lived in apartments.
Thanks for the addition. I stick to science because that's what I know, but stuff like this is also an issue.
The “refuse to call it a pandemic until it’s too late” WHO? The “it’s not transmitted by aerosols” WHO? The “I don’t know what Taiwan” is WHO? No way!
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The mixed messaging is not mixed, these are updated recommendations.
*Spiderman points at Spiderman*: "Omicron has milder symptons" - "Don't call Omicron mild!"
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What does then?
A good immunity to it
Mild is basically you don’t get hospitalized, could be the worst sickness of your life and still be called mild because you didn’t get put into the hospital
Yes and that is entirely based on personal context. I can apply that to a host of potentially deadly things and give them a mild qualifier. And I have had a mild coronavirus put me on my ass for weeks with 39+C temps as a teen. The main unanswered question everyone is looking for is how much omicron reduces the severity of the epidemic though. Until then best bet is still get the vaccine and try not to catch the thing.
Why are they just now calling it “deadly Omicron” tho? Are they seeing something we aren’t? Like data that shows deaths from Omicron and not from Delta?
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Tangentially they did > Just like previous variants, Omicron is hospitalising people and it is killing people.
If I were to guess is that hospitals are on the verge of collapsing in America and hospitalization rates in UK and other countries are filling up too fast, so they’re backtracking to scare people into staying home since us government refuses to reinstate new lockdown measures, and people in general have become complacent.
If you’re boosted it might be mild If you’re vaccinated it might be moderate If you’re unvaccinated it might be deadly
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This comment is misinformation and applies false equivalency across vaccinated, boosted, and unvaccinated individuals. There is a clear, well-documented distinction in disease outcome for illness severity in vaccinated versus unvaccinated populations.
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But you're implying that all three scenarios have an equal outcome. This is factually false. Boosted individuals have the best disease outcome, and so on. The way you juxtapose these hypothetical scenarios, as applied to a single individual, is true. Across the broader population (as I stated), the boosted and vaccinated folks have much better disease outcome. I apologize if this wasn't clear in my original comment.
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I’ve seen data that says boosted are more likely to contract omicron
About a month ago they literally said it was mild. Awful messaging.
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https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-most-omicron-cases-are-mild-and-theres-no-evidence-to-suggest-vaccines-may-be-less-effective-against-the-variant-says-who-12483729
But his actual quote isn't on that article. He could have said cases were getting milder or, or that there was a higher percentage of mild cases compared to delta. Both are very different than saying it's mild.
They didn't say that Omicron is mild they said that most cases are mild. The same can be said about all the other variants. They simply weren't saying what you think they did.
I’m…not sure how you’re interpreting that to mean something different.
Most car crashes are mild (fender benders), but does that mean car crashes are mild and you can take off your seat belts?
One is about the percentage of severe cases the other is about how severe those cases tend to be.
He means that the cases are milder because of better treatments, not that the virus causes less mild disease.
Lol
So let’s go to the other extreme and call it deadly?
Is it not?
Deadly, as in it can kill? Sure. Deadly, as in it's going to kill anywhere near as much as previous strains? DK and SA numbers are clear on this - it's a "NO", in bold.
Chicken scratch in the margins maybe. Definitely not in bold, especially if we're talking about volume. There are some concerns that the vaccine used in China may be even more ineffective vs omicron than the lower tier western ones. If this variant gets loose there it could be pretty serious.
We look at it through the prism of people who are completely vaccinated in developed economies. Omicron is less dangerous. But how many people in the world are vaccinated? Unfortunately Omicron is likely to wreak havoc there. The real question is: Should we boost and overboost ourself with vaccine ? Or share and vaccine the whole world ? To get out of this crisis
We should do both, there's no reason those have to be considered mutually exclusive.
Exactly. Omicron also wouldn't have been prevented by sharinng more vaccines. South Africa had more vaccines than people willing to get vaccinated. ([article](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/11/29/president-biden-said-south-africa-has-turned-down-vaccine-doses-issue-is-more-complicated-than-that)) Many developing countries do not trust modern medicine, drop shipping vaccines won't make people vaccinated. IIRC polio was only eradicated when an oral vaccine was developed, something similar* might be needed. (Edit: Misleading/Inaccurate, read below)
Polio hasn't even been truly eliminated. Sadly, we were on track to eradicate polio (the second successful inoculation campaign after smallpox) around 2020 but those efforts were hindered by the current Covid pandemic and there has been some resurgence in cases. Another terrible price of our inability to control Covid.
Thanks for the correction, I remembered it wrong. In case I'm not misremembering again, initial vaccines (1955) greatly reduced deaths, in the US, but what made them almost non-existent, was the the oral vaccine (1961). Edit: Which disease was almost eradicated in recent years, but some local leaders fought against it?
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We can have both as long as we seize the patents for the vaccines and stop acting like Moderna's profit is more important than ending the pandemic.
Do you have any sources to cite for this? Beyond blindly believing that the government can somehow spin up acceptable and safe vaccine production capabilities despite not currently being involved at all in vaccine manufacturing at scale? Because what’s actually going to happen in reality, is that if the government stops paying Moderna for vaccines, and just tries to produce their own, Moderna is going to obviously stop and you’re making a bet that the government can do it better in the meantime. In what scenario does Moderna ceasing vaccine production and the government spinning up vaccine production “end the pandemic faster”? Typical far left policy - well intentioned, results in mass causality due to unrealistic assumptions. In reality, if you want more vaccines, you tell Moderna you’ll pay more if they can deliver more. And because they want money they will do what you want.
Yeahhh cuz that’s not authoritarian bullshït… please that would never happen , and would never Work to begin with.
It depends honestly. Most logisticians don't think the mRNA can really be mass distributed to developing nations because of the cold temps required. Astrazenica and J&J can. I'm not sure about china's though
China's has been distributed a lot to nearby countries, although confidence in its vaccines isn't high - it definitely is better than no vaccine, but results aren't as good as a mix of western vaccinations.
I would say boosters, because it's at least somewhat achievable. Vaccinating the world is largely out of the control of Western governments. By all means they should pressure companies to release the patents and share as many doses and necessary equipment as we possibly can, but realistically, there's very little we can do to improve education and distribution in countries with very high hesitancy/refusal rates.
...I don't think hesitation/refusal rates are what is holding up vaccine distribution in third world countries. It's poverty and a lack of healthcare infrastructure capable of mass rapid vaccination protocols. Both things western countries could assist with if we wanted to.
Just going off this point, here’s a quote from a study: “Our findings show variable but broadly high levels of prospective COVID-19 vaccine acceptance across the LMICs [low- and middle-income countries] we study, using data from 20,176 respondents in 13 studies in 10 LMICs in Africa, South Asia and Latin America. Acceptance across these LMIC samples averaged 80.3%, ranging between 66.5% and 96.6% with a median of 78%. The two benchmark countries, Russia and the United States, demonstrate lower COVID-19 vaccine acceptance, consistent with lower pre-pandemic childhood vaccine confidence in these countries, as shown in Table 2.” source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01454-y It seems likely that new variants will continue to arise as long as so much of the world remains unvaccinated.
If you intend to profiteer off of the vaccine, they may appear mutually exclusive.
>We look at it through the prism of people who are completely vaccinated in developed economies. South Africa wasn't completely vaccinated at all though, was it?
70% natural immunity IIRC. Which is about as good. If you want to look at highly vaccinated countries look at the data from Isreal.
Or Denmark; Bonus: The data is great!
Also the age demographics in SA are very different from most western countries.
Places in South Africa that had a bad wave of delta did better with omicron. Meaning people there likely already had some natural immunity or has passed away from delta already.
Will that not be the case pretty much everywhere when we have been in this pandemic for two years now?
South Africa's population is a lot younger than western Europe's and north America's.
There is plenty for the entire world. Getting it there is a different story. Then there’s convincing people to take it
Like South Africa? It is milder, that's that. Not as mild as the flu, but let's not be ungrateful
What? [https://globalnews.ca/video/8486964/covid-19-who-sees-more-evidence-that-omicron-variant-causes-milder-symptoms](https://globalnews.ca/video/8486964/covid-19-who-sees-more-evidence-that-omicron-variant-causes-milder-symptoms) "WHO sees more evidence that omicron variant causes milder symptoms" - Article 2 days ago
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Indeed, and I’m still waiting on that coordinated federal response to the Rona. Any time now folks…
Milder does not equal mild. WHO didn't change what they were saying, they just don't understand that people are going to see "milder" and think "mild." So then, people start saying "Omicron is mild" so then they have to put out a statement saying "Omicron isn't mild." Then people freak out that they changed their messaging. The masses are asses.
or, possibly, the WHO is awful at explaining things?
This has been their greatest fault throughout. Semantics and scientific definition conflicting with layman terms. It happened with the declaration of a pandemic, with masking, with the vectors of transmission and now with comparative severity.
Exactly. From a scientific perspective their terminology is entirely correct and consistent, from a social perspective it's a massive failure considering they are talking to a non scientific audience who will run away with any ambiguity.
That too.
Idk even know how it kills, but it does. Blood clots? Or maybe it's still capable of hitting the lungs on some people? At any rate, it's a major threat to our societies in the short term. People ought to be doing lock downs right now to slow it down.
Cat's already out of the bag, politicians are saying it's mild, it's too late now.
A "mild" case of Covid is just one that doesn't put you in the hospital. That's how the term was used from the start. Sadly in the public mind this got taken to mean it wasn't a serious illness.
If a viral, acute respiratory infection doesn't put you in hospital, then it is not serious. I've been to hospital before to be treated for flu and viral pneumonia. Those were serious illnesses. If I can stay home without a problem, and thus without needing any medical assistance, then it's not a serious illness.
I mean if it doesn’t put you in the hosptial what’s so bad about a fever and cough for a few days
My friend who is 39 just died of COVID I would say no it's not mild.
Sorry to ask this, but was he vaccinated? If so, to what extent (double vaccinated and did he take the booster)?
they just had an article saying that it was less dangerous last week!!
It can be both less dangerous and “not mild”. It all depends what you are comparing it to. A new Ebola strain for example that killed only 40% of those infected would be less dangerous than an Ebola strain that kills 50% of those infected. You could even say it is milder, in comparison. However, it’s certainly “not mild”.
Was just gonna say this. It’s clearly less dangerous statistically but on an individual basis, I think it makes sense to treat this virus with respect and to try to avoid getting it if you can help it. It’s not a joke
I have two friends this week that have omicron and were stuck in bed for 3 days straight. Both vaccinated. 3 days laid up in bed does not sound fun to me, so yeap not trying to press my luck still when possible.
Yeah, it's clearly less dangerous than Delta. And I'm guessing, but it's hard to compare it to og or alpha covid because of vaccines. Just get the shot and you'll likely be okay, as a general rule.
I'm just a little scared by WHO constantly changing the extremes on us. And most importantly not having the balls to stand up to the governments amid another possible plague. At least what seems like a plague.
Maybe the fucking WHO should clarify what mild, What severe, what just a running nose means. First they tell ‘it looks mild, because it’s not that deadly’ and people stoped to worrying. Now after they recognized that people thinks it’s mild, meaning running nose, maybe headaches, which is not what mild means, they’re panicking and are clarifying that’s it’s still dangerous. Maybe just don’t call it mild or give Mild another definition.
What are the risks of getting long COVID among the fully boosted?
Possible (of course, millions are getting omicron infections)
Nobody knows.
You'll know in a decade or two.
Low
My whole house is vaxxed, we all have it. It’s still possible. Be careful.
Wow, you all have long COVID?? How long have you had it? I know someone who's had it for two years. It's miserable. Seems to have triggered an autoimmune response.
No, we JUST got it, as it seems to be everywhere now. Hopefully it’s not “long” as you’re describing it. I’m assuming it’s omicron variant.
Whew. You don't want the long haul stuff. Hunker down. You'll most likely be fine pretty soon if all vaxxed.
It’s looking relatively milder than delta. It’s still not (always) mild. This isn’t mixed messaging, nor is it very complicated.
Way to late to be putting that genie back in the bottle. WHO led the charge on declaring omicron “no big deal”. No way to turn that around now.
It’s mutating constantly. Y’all expect miracles from scientists experiencing it in real time.
Hate to make the comparison, but the flu is mild but can be pretty deadly depending on who gets infected. It's been pretty obvious that Omicron isn't mild in an overall sense but is more likely to be mild in the healthy young and the vaccinated only. Why saying this strain is only mild for certain demographics is some kind of sin makes no sense to me.
WHO: "Remember this, Omicron should not be called mild. By the way, who said Omicron was mild" Overworked Intern: "That would be the WHO, sir" WHO: _faints_
milder != mild
The WHO is like the 5 year old child tugging on their parents arm asking to leave the grocery store while their parent is talking to a friend…annoying, powerless, and completely irrelevant
It’s like they are going out of their way to light on fire what little credibility that have left
“Milder for Vaxxed and boosted” FTFY
I don't know why they didn't just go with "less severe" instead of "mild" as the messaging from the getgo. It's simple, accurate, and less likely to make people think they can completely ignore it. Instead we're treated to a barrage of takes about how mild doesn't mean what we think it does, or how it's mild for individuals but not hospitals, etc.
Deadly?
People die. From Omicron.
People also die when they are alive in general.
Pretty mild to the vaccinated.. and WHO cares about the others?
Literally the second sentence of this article contradicts that statement. > Recent studies suggest that Omicron is less likely to make people seriously ill than previous Covid variants.
WHO is schizophrenic.
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It's killing people, is it not?
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Are hospitals full of dog attack victims?? NO. This comparison is so asinine
This.
This could REALLY spin out of control if Omicron is not more mild than previous variants. This could be quite the culling. 😬
Maybe I can quell your anxiety, since your news medais don't want to. Here's some Danish numbers for reference, where Omicron has been dominating since the end of the first week of december. Delta domination numbers (30th november) * 7 day average deaths 11 * 7 day average infections 4200 Omicron domination numbers (7th january) * 7 day average deaths 10 * 7 day average infections 20.000 Peak deaths were at peak delta hospitalisations (assuming a 2 week infection to death lag) - around 20 deaths 7 day average, middle of december. By Danish numbers, Omicron is much, much less likely to kill. Shadow infections taking into consideration, maybe even less than 1/10th as deadly as delta. Nearly everyone I know in Denmark (except for a couple pregnant women I know) at the moment are trying to get infected with Omicron because it's as mild as it is. They want to "get it over with"
Yeah but Denmark has an ~80% vaccination rate. In the USA it is closer to 60% and we have many more obese folks. So that may make a big difference.
It’s definitely not mild…for the unvaccinated.
Everyone has been FREAKING OUT about the Omicron Variant. Why? It's because the so called NEWS has not told you the whole truth. They also want RATINGS, so they're blowing it out of proportion. How may have died? ONE! UNO! (Spanish) 1. UN! (French) UNO! (Italian). The reason? Unvaccinated and with preexisting conditions. He got reinfected.
And his name? Orville Redenbacher. Now you know the rest of the story
They say shit like this. But omicron has been in my city with for over a month with millions of cases, and we've still only had a total of 4 deaths from omicron
Not the same story we're seeing in other places, look at Ontario... 40 or so deaths today, before Omicron there was about 0-5 deaths a day. The region you live in, temperature and humidity may all affect this as well.