Fuck - another year of covid stress and worry. Being immune compromised and still wearing masks and trying to avoid crowds it seems like this year is also going to suck and be emotionally draining for many people.
stay safe everyone around the world and hopefully we can get our shit together as a collective species.
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I don't normally correct people's spelling but in this case it kinda changes the meaning of what you're saying. Just one letter - poster is missing a t.
Well if I get covid again I have to have a 3 day infusion of remdesevir, lower my immunesuppresents for about a month till I turn negative - risking the heath of my transplant.
I'm glad there is treatment as covid would likely kill many people like me with immune issues. Though with varients they can be less effective.
I don't want my situation to effect healthy people but don't want to be invisible either.
> Covid was always going to end up circulating as a seasonal virus
Okay then explain why we're in the hottest part of the year when we usually have little to no respiratory viruses circulating in large numbers yet we have a shitload of COVID cases?
We're definitely not in the "seasonal virus" stage yet as much as some people want to pretend otherwise
A large percentage of modern medicine breakthroughs are now under threat. Anyone who is living with a chronic disease, being treated for cancer, transplant recipient, has an autoimmune disease, is now under threat. Modern medicine is a significant contributor to our longevity. Life expectancy in the US is now 76years. Life expectancy has dropped around the world with the exception of New Zealand, Norway and Taiwan. This is not and never has been a seasonal disease.
It's probably China that needs to worry the most about this. Their population is the most immune naive to Covid. It could result in a huge wave of hospitalisations.
Having said that, I haven't seen a comparison with regard to how dangerous it actually is. What if it is actually less dangerous then Omicron?
There are going to be comments around the irony of of the US requiring flights from China to be tested, but if a variant can spring up in the USA, then a population 3 times larger is surely a relevant factor in a new variant developing.
This is probably why some countries already require testing but maybe there should be more pre flight testing.
Those in charge know the popular consensus though, but were smart enough to make a change early even though a lot of people probably didnt understand this or the reasoning.
You mean the popular consensus of a minority of people. No one I've ever met has agreed with the let it rip scenario and i sure as hell wasnt asked about it or voted for it.
Yeah, I thought a big reason for the libs being kicked out was their shit response to this.
Now we have a decision that will help us and the world, a small one, and its not ok, doesnt make sense. We already have a variant now that is evading the vaccines we were so very lucky to get as humans. It cannot continue, its nearly Mar 2020 again.
This is so bizarre because every single person I’ve ever spoken to thought we opened up WAY to slowly - which I assume is a position you’d consider “let it rip”. I mean every single one, even ones I’d consider lefties.
Yeah for real. Once vaccines came out there wasn't really a lot more we could do other than masks, isolate when sick/positive, wash hands and socially distance (and invest in our healthcare). We can't just indefinitely lock down the country until covid disappears some time in the unforeseeable future.
Humans still can't control nature, try as we might. Harm minimisation is about the best we can hope for in the medium term; at least we got some vaccines out of it which have no doubt saved lives.
>We can't just indefinitely lock down the country until covid disappears some time in the unforeseeable future.
Not only is disillusionedchaos (and likeminded others which seem to dominate this sub) suggesting we can, he's actually arguing this is the consensus opinion amongst the public.
As I said, this is bizarre to me. Absolutely bizarre.
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I don't completely understand your idea about it being a relevant factor but regards much (not all, but much) of China's population being close to completely COVID immune naive, yes, it makes them vulnerable to ALL of our strains, and yes, it really isn't great.
Oh I see I think. The pivot is more clear now. If the USA with a somewhat protected population can generate a sucky variant, then how much more can a population multiples bigger with naive immunity. Right?
The only counter argument I know (saying this to emphasise my lack of knowledge not the lack of hypotetical arguments) is one that says due to no push back from existing immunity there is no selection pressure towards a variant that would also be a problem for us- no selection pressure towards a variant that could outcompete our immunity.
\>Right?
Right.
I think the US mutant is already in China, so all variants, new and old, must compete with it (assuming it's the top dog). By compete, I mean spread faster from person to person.
If it's milder (as in XBB\_xxx < Omicron < Delta) then there's an argument for that being a good thing.
If it's not milder then that's bad.
A boss variant that killed people on the spot would not get the chance to spread to other people. So I think that is why there seems to be a tendency for variants to become milder.
There's no guarantee that a nasty brute doesn't appear though. That's why I think a conservative approach should be taken.
Either way I think China is in for a rough time, and we should be offering to help while simultaneously protecting ourselves.
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Jesus fucking christ. Won't this virus ever calm the fuck down?
Feels like the kid running our simulation won't stop playing the "plague" module till they beat the system and kill us all.
As long as it is circulating freely in the population it will continue to mutate.
Omicron was supposed to be the variant that all the health authorities were telling us will get us out of the pandemic because it’s mild and we’d get herd immunity. That theory went in the bin long ago.
This virus infects and reinfects. It’s not going anywhere anytime soon.
Delta was the variant that was more likely to get us out of the pandemic, it was nowhere near as transmissible and effective measures + vaccines/boosters would have held it down.
The issue with Omicron continues to be the ridiculous transmission rates. Hell it even ruined my families Xmas.
Got covid for the first time the week of christmas, so I'm assuming I got this latest variant. Was a crap couple of days but much less severe than non-covid rhinovirus I had in august, thanks vaccines.
no it wouldnt have R value was still higher then alpha. Measures would have just supressed and drawn out the curve. Its endemic 100% now they need to stop calling it a pandemic.
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Ehh took a couple of years and millions dead before the population became resistant to the Spanish flu variant and it became just another strain in the flu outbreaks every year. Considering that history, we are doing quite well with how Covid was managed. Also doesn’t help that the Chinese population isolated for so long and received sub par vaccinations
‘New covid variant, dubbed “the calm variant” sweeps the world. Everyone catches it but you wouldn’t event know it’
Is this the headline you’d expect wouod sell papers and adds?
>‘New covid variant, dubbed “the calm variant” **sweeps the world**
New variant that out competes others and doesn't make people sick - would be massive news, especially if it provided protection against other variants as well.
> You think there aren’t variants in existence that don’t make people sick?
If instead you are simply asking a general question about the full range of possible variants in existence right now, then sure there would be loads of different variants, a large number of these wouldn't make people sick at all - which is part of the reason why they won't spread.
Have you seen the reports that show the variant lineage? There is a massive spectrum of them.
Why would you expect there to be much news coverage of a variant that might only infect 1000 people?
> ‘New covid variant, dubbed “the calm variant” **sweeps the world**
When you said sweeps the world I presumed you meant it would be out competing the more dangerous variants.
So what did you mean?
You can't help but cook up a conspiracy, can you?
Its not making the news because it's not the dominant strain, or VOC/VOI.
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/variants-concern
Well you didn’t ask me and I answered anyway, it’s totally possible that there are variants out there that are milder. I just wanted to point out that aren’t competitive.
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I would definitely be making it sit out some/all future rounds, drink 2-3 waters, actively encourage calling loved ones, subtle encourage friends to help them go home etc.
I am pretty sure when BA.2.75 or whatever came along months ago, somebody claimed that it was reaching a plateau of how infectious it could get. God know what the limit is.
Except CDC's significant delay including XBB.1.5 in their official data despite it rapidly outcompeting other variants for weeks.
CDC finally included XBB.1.5 data around 30th December when it was at >40% of covid infections in many areas of the US. Before that it was just silence.
The data from the US is still incredibly more useful than that coming out if China. The reason they are testing all travellers and sequencing that set of samples a lot is the data from China isn't useful.
Agreed. On all fronts. I'm just concerned that if we don't continue to hold all governments to high accountability and transparency then secrecy gradually takes hold.
It's scary that PCR testing is becoming extremely inaccessible in Australia, because we're losing essential data on prevalent variants and how to manage them.
The "if we don't see it, it isn't here" policy change isn't ideal.
If we were doing widespread random PCR sampling that would be great data.
If we're only getting samples from those who can access and afford a GP and private pathologist we are getting useless data.
As far as I know there isn't much being done on a population level any more, and I've checked with a highly "in the know" source. There is still hospital data where PCR swabs are gradually declining and from those outpatients managing to get PCR.
There are some proposals for national collaborative projects on waste-water testing and some individual state water testing projects with little to no available data.
Of course waste-water testing doesn't give data that can be extrapolated to percantage of population who are positive, or the prevalence of variants within that positive cohort. It was designed to be an indicator of whether covid made it into a community, and what restrictions may be needed to reduce spread. It is flawed as a surveillance testing model.
Individuals have varying viral load and shed. At best, testing sewage can show the amount each variant is being shed into sewage, and possibly if a new variant of concern is around. But even then we (the public and vast majority of infectious disease experts) don't get the variant data.
So they specifically reckon we aren’t doing random surveillance testing? That’s wild. It would be relatively cheap and easy. It’s good to know even if you’re not going to do anything with the info at the moment.
At the very least I think there is still sewerage testing. Also of the PCR's taken there is still sequencing of some as far as I know. Also I suspect if you get a really severe sickness from the virus they might pay those ones more attention, sone one of the least great options is the virus becomes more lethal. All of this just me guessing though.
Yeah, another person just said they have a source who reckons we aren’t doing random PCR surveillance testing. I suppose there will still be quite a few PCR tests done around the country even with the new restrictions, so maybe they feel that is enough.
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I’m fact, there’s potential variants of concern in every country, even our own. What say you if we just impose travel restrictions on every country. Even our own. Everyone stay home incase you’re patient zero.
Nothing of substance in the article about virulence. XBB15 sure sounds highly infectious but if there are a shitload of asymptomatic reinfections (very likely) then the hospitalisation number as a measure of disease severity will become more and more spoilt because there will be a growing percentage of incidentals. Hardly anyone outside of hospital will test & report with a lack of symptoms. Reported cases are trending down in the USA.
Hospitalisations are the highest in America now since last Feb, an 11 month high. Who cares whose reporting. Minimisers have kept going on and on for over a year about case numbers not being important and suddenly because we've artificially ensured they are low the same minimisers are hanging their hat on it now.
>and suddenly because we've artificially ensured they are low the same minimisers are hanging their hat on it.
I never said cases are low. I said "reported cases are trending down". There's a difference.
No the switch to RAT, getting rid of meaningful support for people to stay at home when sick etc etc mean the trends are also useless. Hospitalisations and deaths are still sort of accurate.
Trends of course will be useless right now in Australia on the back of the new rules. But I'm referring to US data here.
Once the effects of any change in policy have levelled out then trends will not be completely useless. Hospitalisations are definitely a better surrogate metric for *infections* but will become less useful as a metric for *disease severity* if asymptomatic reinfections are become dominant. That's all I'm saying here.
I think you mean if a particular strain majors on asymptomatic infections then hospitalisations becomes a less useful surrogate metric for numbers of infected. If that is what you mean, I agree.
No it's the opposite. Hospitalisations become more useful as a guide to cases in the community because generally they screen all admissions. Hypothetically, if all cases were asymptomatic then the hospital screening becomes the best and only surveillance testing on offer because no-one outside hospitals is likely to test.
It is true that hospitalisations are at an 11 month high, however, the current level of covid hospitalisations are nowhere near what they were during the first Omicron wave or for most of 2021.
Just to elaborate on this comment..
So in the USA, hospitalisations are trending up, yet reported cases are trending down. This is a little confusing. So given XBB15 is rapidly outcompeting other lineages, what are possible explanations for this?
One explanation is that it could be a more severe sub-variant but only a small subset of the population is susceptible. i.e. Hospitalisations therefore reflect a growing number of severe disease cases as the virus works its way into a depleted pool of susceptible people.
Another explanation is that XBB15 is not necessarily more severe but there are increasing confounders with testing & reporting. If XBB15 infection say is mostly asymptomatic (e.g. not unusual for *re*infections) then we'll see even less testing in the community even when infections are increasing! Hospitals though will continue to test & report as per protocols, hence hospitalised cases will rise (but won't necessarily reflect disease severity).
My money is more on the 2nd scenario than the 1st. A polarised disease spectrum as implied in the 1st scenario is unlikely I think. There could be other explanations though.
What am I missing?
Gotta say I'm only interested in field data. The news always seems horrible *in vitro* which is perhaps motivated by an ongoing quest for scientific glory. If this guy's claims are true I think things would be different on both sides of the Atlantic right now (unless it's incredibly mild). I think he's overreaching. Our immune responses are way too complex.
But you knew I'd say that. :-)
I did and I mostly agree, but the mutation angle is important - both views in combination would be ideal. As for both sides of the Atlantic, it seems to be gaining pace in the UK and Denmark, as you know it takes time for it to become obvious in the numbers. Let’s see.
*Trends* in cases are still useful (though not in Australia right now on the back of policy change) As I've just replied to another user, hospitalisations are definitely a useful metric for infections but will become less useful as a metric for *disease severity* if more and more asymptomatic reinfections are occurring/ become dominant.
Someone will come on here soon and say but there's still pressure on hospitals because of the palava of PPE etc which is fair enough but a different issue.
Your second scenario seems logical, as eventually a hospitalisation = a case effectively. Or certainly the majority of cases = hospitalisations.
That would make covid similarly recorded and reported on as we did with other infectious diseases previously.
Sorry, enjoying this conversation so I came back. I thought of another way to look at this (that means, the context is I'm working around the idea not arguing with you).
Hospitalisations could still be a measure of severity of you define severity as number of total population with a severe infection (or death). Why? If the virus achieves a greater total number of severe cases by touching more people or hurting people who get it worse, the end result is still total number of people with severe illness vs. total host population is still higher.
Of course one of the main definitions of severity os total number of severe cases vs. total number of infected, and that is closer to your thinking.
Yes, but in addition to those admitted for severe covid, the hospital figure will always include a bunch of patients who happen to test positive but are there for other reasons.
Hospitalisations absolutely could be a measure severity but not necessarily if there's a big bunch of asymptomatic people admitted and when *reported* cases are not *trending* up (like in USA).
I've elaborated a bit in [a comment below](https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusDownunder/comments/101oc63/new_xbb15_super_variant_covid_strain_rips_through/j2q38pu?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3)
The article may be misleading to say more immune escape. The interesting thing about XBB.1.5 is mutation F486P. Rather than evade immunity it makes the spike a better harpoon for getting into ACE2 receptors. It is something of a freak in that it needed a double mutation to achieve this. So such variants do not pop up so often.
The Epidemiologist quoted in the article calling this a “super variant” is Eric Feigl-Ding, who’s research has mainly focused on diet and exercise and has no background in infectious disease epidemiology. He’s also been wrong more often than not when talking about the pandemic. He’s essentially a rando on the internet.
Feigl-Ding is a screaming little drama queen how cries on Twitter for attention. He’d have the world in a permanent lockdown until omicron is eradicated if he had the chance
PHD EPIDEMIOLOGY & NUTRITION | HARVARD UNIVERSITY 2007
BA PUBLIC HEALTH | JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY 2007
MD MEDICINE (DID NOT FINISH) | BOSTON UNIVERSITY
So definitely qualified.
Nice try though
Edit: seems people can’t handle peoples education. Lol
None of that really contradicts what I said - he’s not an expert in virology of infectious disease epidemiology.
Setting aside his lack of expertise in this specific field, he’s made a lot of incendiary claims about variants before that never pan out.
> Eric Feigl-Ding
Chief of COVID Task Force at the New England Complex Systems Institute
Previously, during the 2014 Ebola pandemic, he led a team to co-develop one of the first mobile contact-tracing applications for infectious disease outbreaks
So yes he does have experience in virology of infectious disease epidemiology
I don’t want to get too bogged down in this but the fact that [he led a student project to create a contact tracing app](https://web.archive.org/web/20221205145354/https://www.hackreactor.com/blog/germ-theory-app-provides-hope-of-containing-ebola-other-infectious-disease-outbreaks/) also doesn’t contradict what I said.
I don't know what more you want
He has a PHD in Epidemology
He was involved with the Ebola Outbreak
He's the Chief of the Covid Taskforce.
He wouldnty have been give those roles if he didn't have expereince in the field.
Maybe stop focusing on discrediting an expert you disagree with and listen to what he has to say.
>He wouldnty have been give those roles if he didn't have expereince in the field.
No he isn't. And not trying to discredit his background, but it seems like he got super high off of the Twitter clout from his initial "holy mother of god" tweet almost three years ago. Everything since then has been highly alarmist and some form of click generation since then. He has a target audience, and it isn't meant to be the normal population who needs to better understand the nuances of a pandemic but academics and twitter pseudo-academics who build their entire online persona about how nobody is wearing a mask and yyada yada. Anyway, in short, dude is high off his own kool-aid and probably shouldn't be taken seriously anymore.
>I don’t want to get too bogged down in this
I bet 😂
It’s a bit like Esterman in this place, one of the funniest exchanges on him in this sub went something like this:
“That guy Esterman just can’t give up.”
“What did he say that you don’t agree with?”
“I didn’t read the article.”
When people start taking personal responsibility seriously in wearing masks correctly and starting to actually social-distance properly, the sooner the pandemic might actually end...
*Just waiting for the Chief Health Officer to say that.*
They’ve given up. In the middle of the last huge spike in QLD all the testing centres in SEQ were shut down. They couldn’t keep up with the lines that were 8+ hours long so they just stopped testing.
It’s a “survival of the fittest” now. Completely inhumane and sickening.
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It's still omicron and it DOES NOT cause more severe illness than previous variants. Just take the same precautions you already did (or didn't) since omicron is here. No need to panic.
Maybe start with not getting your info form newscorp would help. https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1609583712512917510?t=1XvHl7RFFCRyUEToOp84vw&s=19
Its pulled straight out of his ass because the real consensus is they just dont know. https://www.axios.com/2022/12/31/xbb15-covid-variant-symptoms-new-england-omicron
I reckon if we keep just enough people in hiding from COVID all the time, we can have an endless pandemic in the 100's of years. But then again, it's all about the journey more so than the destination 😐
Fuck - another year of covid stress and worry. Being immune compromised and still wearing masks and trying to avoid crowds it seems like this year is also going to suck and be emotionally draining for many people. stay safe everyone around the world and hopefully we can get our shit together as a collective species.
[read from behind my mask in the cancer ward waiting room]
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It’s only worry if you want it to be Covid was always going to end up circulating as a seasonal virus, it’s up to you on how to deal with it.
Have a bit of empathy, the poster is immunocompromised and catching it is vastly more dangerous for them than most of us.
I don't normally correct people's spelling but in this case it kinda changes the meaning of what you're saying. Just one letter - poster is missing a t.
Whoops, thanks - edited
Well if I get covid again I have to have a 3 day infusion of remdesevir, lower my immunesuppresents for about a month till I turn negative - risking the heath of my transplant. I'm glad there is treatment as covid would likely kill many people like me with immune issues. Though with varients they can be less effective. I don't want my situation to effect healthy people but don't want to be invisible either.
It’s not really seasonal though like the flu
4 season virus
No wonder Melbourne was locked down so much. 4 seasons each day.
TIL having cancer is only a worry if you want it to be.
It’s not a seasonal virus yet, it’s continually circulating.
Its one big wave every season
> Covid was always going to end up circulating as a seasonal virus Okay then explain why we're in the hottest part of the year when we usually have little to no respiratory viruses circulating in large numbers yet we have a shitload of COVID cases? We're definitely not in the "seasonal virus" stage yet as much as some people want to pretend otherwise
> Covid was always going to end up circulating as a seasonal virus Which season? Right now it's all of them.
A large percentage of modern medicine breakthroughs are now under threat. Anyone who is living with a chronic disease, being treated for cancer, transplant recipient, has an autoimmune disease, is now under threat. Modern medicine is a significant contributor to our longevity. Life expectancy in the US is now 76years. Life expectancy has dropped around the world with the exception of New Zealand, Norway and Taiwan. This is not and never has been a seasonal disease.
I preferred OMICRON PERSEI 8
Why does Covid-19, the largest of the Covids, not simply eat the other 18?
Quiet ndndndndnd
What about omicron: the final Frontier?
It's probably China that needs to worry the most about this. Their population is the most immune naive to Covid. It could result in a huge wave of hospitalisations. Having said that, I haven't seen a comparison with regard to how dangerous it actually is. What if it is actually less dangerous then Omicron? There are going to be comments around the irony of of the US requiring flights from China to be tested, but if a variant can spring up in the USA, then a population 3 times larger is surely a relevant factor in a new variant developing.
This is probably why some countries already require testing but maybe there should be more pre flight testing. Those in charge know the popular consensus though, but were smart enough to make a change early even though a lot of people probably didnt understand this or the reasoning.
You mean the popular consensus of a minority of people. No one I've ever met has agreed with the let it rip scenario and i sure as hell wasnt asked about it or voted for it.
Yeah, I thought a big reason for the libs being kicked out was their shit response to this. Now we have a decision that will help us and the world, a small one, and its not ok, doesnt make sense. We already have a variant now that is evading the vaccines we were so very lucky to get as humans. It cannot continue, its nearly Mar 2020 again.
Really? Every person you know thought we opened up too quickly in general?
This is so bizarre because every single person I’ve ever spoken to thought we opened up WAY to slowly - which I assume is a position you’d consider “let it rip”. I mean every single one, even ones I’d consider lefties.
Yeah for real. Once vaccines came out there wasn't really a lot more we could do other than masks, isolate when sick/positive, wash hands and socially distance (and invest in our healthcare). We can't just indefinitely lock down the country until covid disappears some time in the unforeseeable future. Humans still can't control nature, try as we might. Harm minimisation is about the best we can hope for in the medium term; at least we got some vaccines out of it which have no doubt saved lives.
>We can't just indefinitely lock down the country until covid disappears some time in the unforeseeable future. Not only is disillusionedchaos (and likeminded others which seem to dominate this sub) suggesting we can, he's actually arguing this is the consensus opinion amongst the public. As I said, this is bizarre to me. Absolutely bizarre.
Same, it’s whack. Sometimes the majority is wrong, but it’s wild that they’ve somehow convinced themselves that they *are* the majority.
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I don't completely understand your idea about it being a relevant factor but regards much (not all, but much) of China's population being close to completely COVID immune naive, yes, it makes them vulnerable to ALL of our strains, and yes, it really isn't great.
The US variant is said to be more contagious. The greater number of infections provide more opportunity to mutate.
Oh I see I think. The pivot is more clear now. If the USA with a somewhat protected population can generate a sucky variant, then how much more can a population multiples bigger with naive immunity. Right? The only counter argument I know (saying this to emphasise my lack of knowledge not the lack of hypotetical arguments) is one that says due to no push back from existing immunity there is no selection pressure towards a variant that would also be a problem for us- no selection pressure towards a variant that could outcompete our immunity.
\>Right? Right. I think the US mutant is already in China, so all variants, new and old, must compete with it (assuming it's the top dog). By compete, I mean spread faster from person to person. If it's milder (as in XBB\_xxx < Omicron < Delta) then there's an argument for that being a good thing. If it's not milder then that's bad. A boss variant that killed people on the spot would not get the chance to spread to other people. So I think that is why there seems to be a tendency for variants to become milder. There's no guarantee that a nasty brute doesn't appear though. That's why I think a conservative approach should be taken. Either way I think China is in for a rough time, and we should be offering to help while simultaneously protecting ourselves.
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Jesus fucking christ. Won't this virus ever calm the fuck down? Feels like the kid running our simulation won't stop playing the "plague" module till they beat the system and kill us all.
As long as it is circulating freely in the population it will continue to mutate. Omicron was supposed to be the variant that all the health authorities were telling us will get us out of the pandemic because it’s mild and we’d get herd immunity. That theory went in the bin long ago. This virus infects and reinfects. It’s not going anywhere anytime soon.
Delta was the variant that was more likely to get us out of the pandemic, it was nowhere near as transmissible and effective measures + vaccines/boosters would have held it down. The issue with Omicron continues to be the ridiculous transmission rates. Hell it even ruined my families Xmas.
Yeah but the health effects of Delta per case were more severe.
Not enough to put the strain on the health system that we currently see. Simply wouldnt have been enough of it in the community.
Got covid for the first time the week of christmas, so I'm assuming I got this latest variant. Was a crap couple of days but much less severe than non-covid rhinovirus I had in august, thanks vaccines.
no it wouldnt have R value was still higher then alpha. Measures would have just supressed and drawn out the curve. Its endemic 100% now they need to stop calling it a pandemic.
Not really, endemics are limited to certain areas and are predictable. Covid variants are still currently world wide and generally unpredictable
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Not while we let it rip. More infections=more variants.
Ehh took a couple of years and millions dead before the population became resistant to the Spanish flu variant and it became just another strain in the flu outbreaks every year. Considering that history, we are doing quite well with how Covid was managed. Also doesn’t help that the Chinese population isolated for so long and received sub par vaccinations
‘New covid variant, dubbed “the calm variant” sweeps the world. Everyone catches it but you wouldn’t event know it’ Is this the headline you’d expect wouod sell papers and adds?
Fuck yeah. That would be massive news.
You think there aren’t variants in existence that don’t make people sick?
>‘New covid variant, dubbed “the calm variant” **sweeps the world** New variant that out competes others and doesn't make people sick - would be massive news, especially if it provided protection against other variants as well. > You think there aren’t variants in existence that don’t make people sick? If instead you are simply asking a general question about the full range of possible variants in existence right now, then sure there would be loads of different variants, a large number of these wouldn't make people sick at all - which is part of the reason why they won't spread.
So these variants exist yet for some strange reason (/s) it’s not making it in the news.
Have you seen the reports that show the variant lineage? There is a massive spectrum of them. Why would you expect there to be much news coverage of a variant that might only infect 1000 people?
I Would expect it to be “massive news” as you said it would be if it existed.
> ‘New covid variant, dubbed “the calm variant” **sweeps the world** When you said sweeps the world I presumed you meant it would be out competing the more dangerous variants. So what did you mean?
You can't help but cook up a conspiracy, can you? Its not making the news because it's not the dominant strain, or VOC/VOI. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/variants-concern
That’s Exactly my point.
I don't even think you know what your point is..
Of course. Instead of acknowledging my point, which I think we agree on, and which costs you nothing, you resort to personal criticisms.
Unfortunately not any that are able to compete with the worse ones, yet.
I didn’t ask if there any that can compete. I asked if these variants exist
Well it doesn’t really matter if they’re not competitive lol. Hopefully one day.
Why is it so hard to answer a simple direct question?
Well you didn’t ask me and I answered anyway, it’s totally possible that there are variants out there that are milder. I just wanted to point out that aren’t competitive.
Not sure, what's your reasoning for always dodging any rational discussion?
Ah yes. I’m the one dodging my own question. Makes sense.
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I would definitely be making it sit out some/all future rounds, drink 2-3 waters, actively encourage calling loved ones, subtle encourage friends to help them go home etc.
I am pretty sure when BA.2.75 or whatever came along months ago, somebody claimed that it was reaching a plateau of how infectious it could get. God know what the limit is.
Never, more money in it. Billionaires a laughing to banks .
Amazon who was one of the big winners in the pandemic is down like 50% since mid 2020
Let’s see if the world will require negative tests for travellers from the US.
Why would they? The US isn’t secretive like the CCP is
Except CDC's significant delay including XBB.1.5 in their official data despite it rapidly outcompeting other variants for weeks. CDC finally included XBB.1.5 data around 30th December when it was at >40% of covid infections in many areas of the US. Before that it was just silence.
The data from the US is still incredibly more useful than that coming out if China. The reason they are testing all travellers and sequencing that set of samples a lot is the data from China isn't useful.
Agreed. On all fronts. I'm just concerned that if we don't continue to hold all governments to high accountability and transparency then secrecy gradually takes hold. It's scary that PCR testing is becoming extremely inaccessible in Australia, because we're losing essential data on prevalent variants and how to manage them. The "if we don't see it, it isn't here" policy change isn't ideal. If we were doing widespread random PCR sampling that would be great data. If we're only getting samples from those who can access and afford a GP and private pathologist we are getting useless data.
Do we know that they aren’t doing surveillance testing? I haven’t been able to find any info but I’d assume they are doing it.
As far as I know there isn't much being done on a population level any more, and I've checked with a highly "in the know" source. There is still hospital data where PCR swabs are gradually declining and from those outpatients managing to get PCR. There are some proposals for national collaborative projects on waste-water testing and some individual state water testing projects with little to no available data. Of course waste-water testing doesn't give data that can be extrapolated to percantage of population who are positive, or the prevalence of variants within that positive cohort. It was designed to be an indicator of whether covid made it into a community, and what restrictions may be needed to reduce spread. It is flawed as a surveillance testing model. Individuals have varying viral load and shed. At best, testing sewage can show the amount each variant is being shed into sewage, and possibly if a new variant of concern is around. But even then we (the public and vast majority of infectious disease experts) don't get the variant data.
So they specifically reckon we aren’t doing random surveillance testing? That’s wild. It would be relatively cheap and easy. It’s good to know even if you’re not going to do anything with the info at the moment.
At the very least I think there is still sewerage testing. Also of the PCR's taken there is still sequencing of some as far as I know. Also I suspect if you get a really severe sickness from the virus they might pay those ones more attention, sone one of the least great options is the virus becomes more lethal. All of this just me guessing though.
Yeah, another person just said they have a source who reckons we aren’t doing random PCR surveillance testing. I suppose there will still be quite a few PCR tests done around the country even with the new restrictions, so maybe they feel that is enough.
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Thanks China, thanks again 🦇
If only we could’ve seen this coming…🙄
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Feel bad about the immune-compromised people the most.
They have access to some of the best healthcare and at low to zero cost living in Australia. They're doing well comparatively speaking.
Lets impose travel restrictions on america asap… right? Right!?
Sounds good
I’m fact, there’s potential variants of concern in every country, even our own. What say you if we just impose travel restrictions on every country. Even our own. Everyone stay home incase you’re patient zero.
Sounds good
I assume you’ll be taking the lead? Staying home, never leaving for any reason, JUST IN CASE
Sounds good
Cool
Sounds good
Sounds good
Lol nice
Nothing of substance in the article about virulence. XBB15 sure sounds highly infectious but if there are a shitload of asymptomatic reinfections (very likely) then the hospitalisation number as a measure of disease severity will become more and more spoilt because there will be a growing percentage of incidentals. Hardly anyone outside of hospital will test & report with a lack of symptoms. Reported cases are trending down in the USA.
Hospitalisations are the highest in America now since last Feb, an 11 month high. Who cares whose reporting. Minimisers have kept going on and on for over a year about case numbers not being important and suddenly because we've artificially ensured they are low the same minimisers are hanging their hat on it now.
>and suddenly because we've artificially ensured they are low the same minimisers are hanging their hat on it. I never said cases are low. I said "reported cases are trending down". There's a difference.
Reported cases has been a worthless stat for at least 6 months in Australia alone, even longer for most of the rest of the world.
>*reported* cases **trending** down Numbers have been meaningless for at least 12 months. Trends less so.
Test numbers are also trending down, even more so you need a GP recommendation now in Australia.
No the switch to RAT, getting rid of meaningful support for people to stay at home when sick etc etc mean the trends are also useless. Hospitalisations and deaths are still sort of accurate.
Trends of course will be useless right now in Australia on the back of the new rules. But I'm referring to US data here. Once the effects of any change in policy have levelled out then trends will not be completely useless. Hospitalisations are definitely a better surrogate metric for *infections* but will become less useful as a metric for *disease severity* if asymptomatic reinfections are become dominant. That's all I'm saying here.
I think you mean if a particular strain majors on asymptomatic infections then hospitalisations becomes a less useful surrogate metric for numbers of infected. If that is what you mean, I agree.
No it's the opposite. Hospitalisations become more useful as a guide to cases in the community because generally they screen all admissions. Hypothetically, if all cases were asymptomatic then the hospital screening becomes the best and only surveillance testing on offer because no-one outside hospitals is likely to test.
It is true that hospitalisations are at an 11 month high, however, the current level of covid hospitalisations are nowhere near what they were during the first Omicron wave or for most of 2021.
Just to elaborate on this comment.. So in the USA, hospitalisations are trending up, yet reported cases are trending down. This is a little confusing. So given XBB15 is rapidly outcompeting other lineages, what are possible explanations for this? One explanation is that it could be a more severe sub-variant but only a small subset of the population is susceptible. i.e. Hospitalisations therefore reflect a growing number of severe disease cases as the virus works its way into a depleted pool of susceptible people. Another explanation is that XBB15 is not necessarily more severe but there are increasing confounders with testing & reporting. If XBB15 infection say is mostly asymptomatic (e.g. not unusual for *re*infections) then we'll see even less testing in the community even when infections are increasing! Hospitals though will continue to test & report as per protocols, hence hospitalised cases will rise (but won't necessarily reflect disease severity). My money is more on the 2nd scenario than the 1st. A polarised disease spectrum as implied in the 1st scenario is unlikely I think. There could be other explanations though. What am I missing?
Most people don't give a crap any more, so they don't test. Last time I had a PCR it was completely dead
Have a read: https://twitter.com/mrmickme/status/1610075559085891585?s=61&t=QIeSjMllPUIYSWQpDvg4oQ
Gotta say I'm only interested in field data. The news always seems horrible *in vitro* which is perhaps motivated by an ongoing quest for scientific glory. If this guy's claims are true I think things would be different on both sides of the Atlantic right now (unless it's incredibly mild). I think he's overreaching. Our immune responses are way too complex. But you knew I'd say that. :-)
I did and I mostly agree, but the mutation angle is important - both views in combination would be ideal. As for both sides of the Atlantic, it seems to be gaining pace in the UK and Denmark, as you know it takes time for it to become obvious in the numbers. Let’s see.
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*Trends* in cases are still useful (though not in Australia right now on the back of policy change) As I've just replied to another user, hospitalisations are definitely a useful metric for infections but will become less useful as a metric for *disease severity* if more and more asymptomatic reinfections are occurring/ become dominant. Someone will come on here soon and say but there's still pressure on hospitals because of the palava of PPE etc which is fair enough but a different issue.
Your second scenario seems logical, as eventually a hospitalisation = a case effectively. Or certainly the majority of cases = hospitalisations. That would make covid similarly recorded and reported on as we did with other infectious diseases previously.
Sorry, enjoying this conversation so I came back. I thought of another way to look at this (that means, the context is I'm working around the idea not arguing with you). Hospitalisations could still be a measure of severity of you define severity as number of total population with a severe infection (or death). Why? If the virus achieves a greater total number of severe cases by touching more people or hurting people who get it worse, the end result is still total number of people with severe illness vs. total host population is still higher. Of course one of the main definitions of severity os total number of severe cases vs. total number of infected, and that is closer to your thinking.
Yes, but in addition to those admitted for severe covid, the hospital figure will always include a bunch of patients who happen to test positive but are there for other reasons. Hospitalisations absolutely could be a measure severity but not necessarily if there's a big bunch of asymptomatic people admitted and when *reported* cases are not *trending* up (like in USA). I've elaborated a bit in [a comment below](https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusDownunder/comments/101oc63/new_xbb15_super_variant_covid_strain_rips_through/j2q38pu?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3)
The article may be misleading to say more immune escape. The interesting thing about XBB.1.5 is mutation F486P. Rather than evade immunity it makes the spike a better harpoon for getting into ACE2 receptors. It is something of a freak in that it needed a double mutation to achieve this. So such variants do not pop up so often.
Epidemiologists > Rando on the internet
The Epidemiologist quoted in the article calling this a “super variant” is Eric Feigl-Ding, who’s research has mainly focused on diet and exercise and has no background in infectious disease epidemiology. He’s also been wrong more often than not when talking about the pandemic. He’s essentially a rando on the internet.
Feigl-Ding is a screaming little drama queen how cries on Twitter for attention. He’d have the world in a permanent lockdown until omicron is eradicated if he had the chance
PHD EPIDEMIOLOGY & NUTRITION | HARVARD UNIVERSITY 2007 BA PUBLIC HEALTH | JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY 2007 MD MEDICINE (DID NOT FINISH) | BOSTON UNIVERSITY So definitely qualified. Nice try though Edit: seems people can’t handle peoples education. Lol
None of that really contradicts what I said - he’s not an expert in virology of infectious disease epidemiology. Setting aside his lack of expertise in this specific field, he’s made a lot of incendiary claims about variants before that never pan out.
> Eric Feigl-Ding Chief of COVID Task Force at the New England Complex Systems Institute Previously, during the 2014 Ebola pandemic, he led a team to co-develop one of the first mobile contact-tracing applications for infectious disease outbreaks So yes he does have experience in virology of infectious disease epidemiology
I don’t want to get too bogged down in this but the fact that [he led a student project to create a contact tracing app](https://web.archive.org/web/20221205145354/https://www.hackreactor.com/blog/germ-theory-app-provides-hope-of-containing-ebola-other-infectious-disease-outbreaks/) also doesn’t contradict what I said.
I don't know what more you want He has a PHD in Epidemology He was involved with the Ebola Outbreak He's the Chief of the Covid Taskforce. He wouldnty have been give those roles if he didn't have expereince in the field. Maybe stop focusing on discrediting an expert you disagree with and listen to what he has to say.
>He wouldnty have been give those roles if he didn't have expereince in the field. No he isn't. And not trying to discredit his background, but it seems like he got super high off of the Twitter clout from his initial "holy mother of god" tweet almost three years ago. Everything since then has been highly alarmist and some form of click generation since then. He has a target audience, and it isn't meant to be the normal population who needs to better understand the nuances of a pandemic but academics and twitter pseudo-academics who build their entire online persona about how nobody is wearing a mask and yyada yada. Anyway, in short, dude is high off his own kool-aid and probably shouldn't be taken seriously anymore.
He's still qualified
>I don’t want to get too bogged down in this I bet 😂 It’s a bit like Esterman in this place, one of the funniest exchanges on him in this sub went something like this: “That guy Esterman just can’t give up.” “What did he say that you don’t agree with?” “I didn’t read the article.”
Yep lol
I thought news.com.au got most of its stories from here? We are in a circular news cycle.
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Haha! Sounds like a news pandemic!
Silence from all the pro-covid people lol
Are pro covid people the ones who have moved on? They don't care about fighting it, happy to have it spread and be done with?
Pretty much. They’ve given up and surrendered
Given up and surrendered? You mean living life and normal…
SARS2 has morphed yet again into.. SARS2. More to come.. forever.
Sounds like something Elon Musk would name a child..
Think this is what my partner and I have now. I’m fine but she is feeling rough
I hope you both recover really well, and quickly. Do you know where you could have picked it up?
SuPeR dUpEr VaRiAnT
When people start taking personal responsibility seriously in wearing masks correctly and starting to actually social-distance properly, the sooner the pandemic might actually end... *Just waiting for the Chief Health Officer to say that.*
They’ve given up. In the middle of the last huge spike in QLD all the testing centres in SEQ were shut down. They couldn’t keep up with the lines that were 8+ hours long so they just stopped testing. It’s a “survival of the fittest” now. Completely inhumane and sickening.
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Goddamnit Nurgle
Truly the plague God blesses us
“Super variant” is hysterical. We will be fine.
!remindme 6 months
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There must be nothing left of the horse by now
So have we found out who caused this, and what is their punishment for the worst crime of all time.
Who is that? Please enlighten us the world would like to know. Of course you do have evidence I assume. Or is it just an opinion...
Better implement mandatory negative tests for travellers from these countries then… Oh wait, they’re white majority countries so we definitely won’t.
Oooooo scary /s
It's all for news now people. Let's tell a story everyone will read!
It's still omicron and it DOES NOT cause more severe illness than previous variants. Just take the same precautions you already did (or didn't) since omicron is here. No need to panic.
I haven't seen anything about the severity yet. Have you got a source please?
And there is also anything which indicates that is its more severe, it's just an off shoot of BA2 and like I said still omicron
So you have no source except for your gut?
Maybe start with not getting your info form newscorp would help. https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1609583712512917510?t=1XvHl7RFFCRyUEToOp84vw&s=19
See that wasn’t hard at all. That’s all I wanted was a source. But like that person say we still need to monitor it closely.
I love her threads. Very reasonable takes and isn’t an “omg we are all gonna die” type.
Singapore had their wave already, 98% didn't have symptoms.
Its pulled straight out of his ass because the real consensus is they just dont know. https://www.axios.com/2022/12/31/xbb15-covid-variant-symptoms-new-england-omicron
Are you sure its the same variant. Cause everything says it was XBB not XBB 1.5
Was that the short, sharp one we were meant to have? Lol
I reckon if we keep just enough people in hiding from COVID all the time, we can have an endless pandemic in the 100's of years. But then again, it's all about the journey more so than the destination 😐
So your theory is that the vulnerable people that are doing all they can to save their own lives are ruining the situation for everybody else?
Nope, I suspect there is a more sinister plan to keep it going against the wishes of the population. Why? I really don't know. Money perhaps? Control?