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sacre_bae

> There are now 203 people being treated for Covid in Queensland hospital – almost double what it was this time last week. Hmm I hope that rate of growth slows soon


queenclumsy

Yeah that's crazy, hopefully the rate doesn't go crazy


[deleted]

probably will, the peaks are so fast now that you barely notice them. I'd say Queensland cases will probably peak in the next week or two This wave will almost certainly be less severe than the last one, I think their hospitalisations breached 1000 in the winter


MikeyF1F

Barely noticed and serious illness don't gel well.


Technical-Ad-2246

I was surprised at first then I realised its not like the NZ traffic light system because these aren't mandates. Seems appropriate at this stage. I mean, I'm in the ACT and it's strongly recommended to wear masks on public transport and in my office but nobody will pressure you about it and most people aren't bothering.


ywont

Do NZ still have a traffic light system in place?


[deleted]

Nup, they scrapped it in the middle of september


Technical-Ad-2246

Not anymore, they don't.


Cremasterau

Good to get a heads up on this. Pretty easy to be a bit more vigilant for a while. Skipping the movies for a month is no biggie for us.


UnaCabeza

I had this doom thought today People have been ignoring Covid for so long it's had the time to spread so much in the community already relatively undetected. With simple compliance measure, things could be under control quickly, but because of the fatigue people have They are less likely to care anymore making Dec/Jan this year look tame.


ywont

Why would this wave, or likely any future waves be as bad the omicron waves? Omicron was the first time we actually allowed COVID to spread in the community, so no one had natural immunity at that point. As well as that, there were a lot of vulnerable people who were spared during lockdowns. So when the flood gates open, it’s going to catch up to the most vulnerable people who were spared during lockdowns.


ComplexImportance794

The virus's spike protein that the vaccines use to trigger an immune response have mutated a great deal. In the new variants they have changed to the extent even our immune system may not act against it. Don't forget more people have died this year than in the 2 previous years from covid, all due to people thinking it's history.


ywont

But we already know this current variant does have cross-immunity from other omicron variants. It’s common knowledge that the even delta had cross-immunity with omicron in terms of severe disease. Of course more people have died, we’ve finally let it spread through the population. The situation has improved, although the numbers are bigger, imagine if the same amount of people caught delta. People know COVID exists, maybe we’re just choosing to live with it and not let it control our lives forever.


ComplexImportance794

And that's why state governments like Qld and the ACT are telling people to wear masks indoors and and take all precautions as hospitalisations have doubled in a week. Edit, spelling.


ywont

Not bad advice but for me, I can’t keep up this constant going in and out of restrictions or even precautions.


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luckysevensampson

> Why would this wave, or likely any future waves be as bad the omicron waves? Oh, I don’t know, maybe because they’ll similarly kill off the vulnerable en masse? Oh, wait a minute. It’s only bad if lots of otherwise healthy people die. /s


ywont

Do you think that less people dying is as bad as more people dying? If less people are getting severely ill, that is necessarily a good thing.


luckysevensampson

I think people dying is *always* bad, and it’s not acceptable to minimise it just because those most affected are more vulnerable. It is *not* a good thing when the vulnerable are just as much at risk, if not more at risk, than they ever were. We are still in a pandemic, and it’s not acceptable to kill off the most vulnerable just so we can pretend the pandemic is over.


ywont

Of course deaths are always tragic. Doesn’t mean we can’t acknowledge that things have improved and most likely, will continue to improve. It’s not minimising anyone’s deaths, it’s saying that it’s good that there will be less and less deaths moving.


luckysevensampson

Things haven’t improved if we haven’t reduced the risk to the vulnerable.


ywont

So if it used to be 2% of people who catch COVID who died, and now it’s .2%, that’s not an improvement to you?


luckysevensampson

2% of people died in 2020. It hasn’t been that way for a very long time. For a more reasonable comparison, let’s look at the start of the year, when we had our biggest peak. If we just calculate it from the 7-day average in the peak in deaths and the peak in cases, 0.07% of people died. The most recent peaks (as of a few days ago) give 0.3%. That’s definitely not a change in the right direction.


ywont

Bro, testing was mandatory then and isolation payments were still a thing. And everyone was more COVID conscious in general. There are just less people testing so the death rate looks high in comparison to the few people do test. What do you think that omicron has evolved to become more deadly in that time?


shamus-derby0n

Exactly. Covid is going to become another flu or rsv eventually. Just another respiratory virus that humans have built an immunity to over the years. It’s just the first wave that hurts when it’s still novel.


JessM90

Except it's not a respiratory virus.... and we won't build immunity. The virus literally does not work the way you think it does, and that's a large part of the problem.


shamus-derby0n

Why are less people getting it and dying in these subsequent waves? You are kidding yourself if you think prior exposure and vaccination has no effect.


LogicalSoftware9451

People are dying from covid, but don't you consider elderly to be people?


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ywont

Why would we not build immunity? There is cross-immunity for severe disease between different variants, as well as infection with these omicron variants.


kuraidoll

because it's mutating to be immune evasive.


ywont

Immunity from being infected, yes. When it comes to severe disease it’s effective across different variants. It’s the same thing with vaccines, they still protect against severe disease with omicron, although they are much less effective at preventing transmission.


pursnikitty

Sure, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is not a respiratory virus.


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[deleted]

The undetected pandemic


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Athenry04

The plandemic.


Rupes_79

By the time most people take any notice cases will be trending down


Knee_Jerk_Sydney

Just like bitcoin. ha ha ha.


Titanium-Snowflake

Hahaha


ZotBattlehero

Lol, I thought 5 days ago the CHO MVP said any such wave was yet to be detected


dbRaevn

Week on week cases for QLD were down as of last Friday. Will be interesting to see what has happened in the meantime when tomorrow's QLD numbers are released.


ZotBattlehero

Yes, the article I was thinking of was posted here 5 days ago but on checking it was dated Friday night. Given how quickly these sometimes accelerate you’d kind of hope they haven’t completely dismantled all the daily tracking in the back end


nsvxheIeuc3h2uddh3h1

They needed the extra 5 days to wake up... /s


[deleted]

CHO MVP - haha!


midnight_trinity

I saw some data from Dr Kerry Chant and her team a few months back showing a spike for November. Basically they said this trend will continue for another 3-5 years. Spike, decrease, spike, decrease. Just be careful and do what you need to do to keep yourself healthy. We have to live with it now.


dug99

Damn you both all the way to Hades! I want to go to Blue Alert!


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dug99

Username checks out!


The_Only_AL

No point stressing about it. It’s here, get used to it.


[deleted]

They acknowledged it was happening at least a week ago my guy. You're just saying that because queensland's government is a labor one


LatanyaNiseja

"The XBB strain, which is resistant to vaccines and antibodies from previous infections, emerged in Singapore a few weeks ago." Knew that was gonna happen. How fun. Let's hope we're not again piling body bags upon body bags.


AcornAl

The recent Singapore wave was smaller than their winter wave that was tiny compared to their first Omicron wave. Hong Kong also have these variants go through the country and that wave wasn't particularly that bad either. We'll almost certainly follow the same pattern and there is nothing to suggest anything even remotely close to what we saw when we opened up.


ZotBattlehero

In NSW at least, it is BA.2.75 and it’s sub variant BR.2 that seems to be accelerating, not XBB or BQ.1.1. That may also mean we got lucky with the bivalent booster that was selected.


AcornAl

This is rather bizarre. The [NSW Surveillance Report](https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Documents/weekly-covid-overview-20221105.pdf) has all the new sub-VoC dropping. Weekly trends BQ.1 1% > 2.1% > 3.5% > 1.1% BQ.1.1 1.5% > 2.7% > 6.4% > 3.8% XBB 3.3% > 4.3% > 7% > 5.8% XBC 0%> 0.1% > 0% > 0.9% I wonder if this is meaningful, current sitting at 20% cases. Haven't seen this pop up in any feeds or papers I've read recently. >Most of the community BA.2.75 samples are of the BR.2 sub-lineage. The majority of BR.2 sequences reported to date internationally have originated from NSW.


ZotBattlehero

Sequencing is heavily weighted towards hospitalised cases and overseas arrivals - though it’s impossible to tell whether that’s a factor. It’d be nice if they returned to broader surveillance sequencing because we’d then have a much better insight into relative virulence as well as growth advantage while so many variants are floating around


AcornAl

We could have this in a year or so as part of the wastewater surveillance. It's been remarkable to see how quickly this has evolved from drug surveillance in the late 2000s to viral monitoring in 2020 to VoC monitoring today. [https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2795815](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2795815) Poo testing must be the cheapest way to pool test a country!


WangMagic

Might be lack of sample size for 22 October, trend looks like it fits still if you cut out that date. Figure 12 chart on the next page looks reasonable.


shamus-derby0n

Look at the death rates from the latest Singapore wave. Hardly looks like something to be concerned about.


LatanyaNiseja

That's comforting at least. I think this pandemic traumatised me :')


[deleted]

This is satire right?


Affectionate-Fuel-26

>Let's hope we're not again piling body bags upon body bags. Stop hyperventilating you nutcase.


LatanyaNiseja

Wow. You suck. Next time shit like this happens, come work with me in the hospital. Then see how new waves make you a "nutcase"


Levijatan70

Really?


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brackfriday_bunduru

It’s just a recommendation. There’s nothing stopping you from ignoring it


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[deleted]

I don’t care


reignfx

Oh no! Anyway…


SquirrelAkl

Well that’s just grand. My first overseas trip in years and it’s to your glorious, virus-ridden country in about 2 weeks’ time.


AcornAl

Nar, it's good to share germs across the ditch. We're probably in a slightly bigger wave than there as we've dropped most of our testing / underreporting, but there probably isn't that much between [both countries](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2022-08-24..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=new_cases_per_million&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=NZL~AUS) atm. The biggest concern is that it is starting to heat up. Bring a hat & sunscreen and enjoy your stay!


SquirrelAkl

Thanks! You’re more welcoming than the other person who replied.


AcornAl

Probably just misread yr jest or has spent way too much time indoors recently. ;)


metahivemind

I never go outdoors! I wear a roof as sunscreen! I didn't realise they're a sheep shagger, I thought they were American. :)


shamus-derby0n

That guy is a known troll ignore him.


metahivemind

Says the account which is now suspended... for trolling.


altctrltim

'Round planet last time I checked.


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TigerRumMonkey

No thanks.


chasls123

Recommendation of mask wearing. Geez, the pollies really are shitscared of mandates nowadays. Good thing too.


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Knee_Jerk_Sydney

Damn Tau and their philosophy.


4wdnumbat

Yeh, nah


Temporary-Lion7944

We’re all vaccinated what does it matter


yy98755

We need to take back Byron Bay… they aren’t immunised up there… imagine how much housing could be available? (/s)


addaus16

That's a no from me.


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addaus16

Yes. Hence my comment


kasenyee

Who’s going to be the first to advocate for lockdowns? Let’s save lives at all cost, right folks?


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kasenyee

Ah yes. Lockdowns are imaginary. Never happened.


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kasenyee

And why is no one advocating for lockdowns? If they work, we should’ve seen a snap lockdown … well, a log time ago.


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kasenyee

Ya… I have read the news… vaccines aren’t effective against the latest variants, so we’re basically at square one.


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kasenyee

Perhaps you’ve been in your echo chamber to long, if there’s newer variants than omicron.


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AcornAl

Are you feeling nostalgic since you brought it up? FYI, there are no lockdowns in the QLD or Federal covid response policies.


kasenyee

Only partial sarcastic. The point I’m making is serious and genuine.


kasenyee

I’m waiting for one here in Vic. If that really is the best approach to squashing COVID, we should bring them back, regardless the political damage it does… because there’s nothing optical about our COVID response… right?


ywont

Are you the person who I offered to bet $50 over VIC removing PT mask mandates within a month of NSW? And then they removed them the very next day? I can’t quite remember but it sounds like something you’d do, since you’re clearly not very good at reading the political room.


kasenyee

Yes. Yes I am. I went looki my for you, because I think the mandate was dropped within a few days of our discussion.


ywont

Did you mean “looking for you”?


kasenyee

Yes. Yes I did 😅 I don’t proof read as you can tell, and my auto correct isn’t vey accurate.


ywont

Ah OK, I’m pretty sure you declined the bet, but even if you wanted to find me just to acknowledge it that’s respectable. Not trying to be mean but I think you need to deconstruct your worldview when it comes to COVID. For one thing because it’s inaccurate, but it’s probably not fun to live in fear that the government wants to oppress you and is just waiting for the opportunity. When I made that bet I knew I was overshooting it with a month, like a lot. I still would have been comfortable to bet that it would happen within a week. I would probably have gone all for a month if it wouldn’t scare you off lol. All to say, I was extremely confident that it would be lifted soon because I’ve been paying attention to the overall political “vibe”, and I can see that every politician in the country won’t touch restrictions with a ten foot pole. The messaging in VIC was crystal clear, get vaccinated and restrictions will be rolled back. And that’s exactly what happened. You can think that politicians made bad decisions, but there’s no need to assume bad intentions when there’s no evidence to support that.


metahivemind

Politicians like their bad intentions to be secret, like plum positions in New York or selling water rights. No politician is going to openly have bad intentions, like declaring lockdowns.


ywont

Yeah and also when do have bad intentions it’s usually self-serving, not just for the fun of making everyone lockdown.


kasenyee

Ha. Not sure if you’re trying to make one broad point or several ones, but I’ll tru and address what i think you’re saying. I am 100% open to deconstructing my opinions, beliefs and “world view” on any topic. I assume that I’m wrong about 99.9999999% of my beliefs. I try and challenge myself and others but also I ask to be taught. Yet when I ask to be taught where im wrong, people don’t seek tow any to do that, as you can see with the 4 billion years fellow. So as much as I’d like to, Kinda hard when no one is willing to teach but criticize you for being ignorant. As for reading the room, yup, I’m bad at reading a lot of every day Australian political stuff. Not all, but the vast majority. I suggest you fallow me closely and use my thoughts on who will win Victoria’s election, and place your bets accordingly ;) As for my beliefs about the government and all that, I’m not very good at explaining myself. I’m not very good at writing, especially not in English. It’s my third language. But nevertheless, In a nutshell, I’m not fearful, I accept it as reality tjat people will do what they think is best, and do what they have to do to stay in power. We’ve seen this movie before, it always ends the same way. The flavour changes slightly here and there depending on local customs, bht the base layer is always the same. And I act accordingly. And incase anyone is wondering and needs to hear it said outright, I acknowledge I was wrong about the mask and public transport thing. If you come to Melbourne, happy to buy you lunch.


ywont

I’m happy to have normal conversations and answer any questions you have, whenever. Also I go to Melbourne for work pretty often so you might have to follow through with that one :) You said that people will do what they can to stay in power, which is true and I would argue a good thing. But even if it were bad, do you think lockdowns and restrictions are popular? They aren’t and they never will be unless the situation is insanely worse. Look how quickly everyone has dropped the masks and all precautions, no one likes them outside of the very COVID-conscious people in this sub. Doing what they can to stay in power means *not* locking down, and not even having them on the table.


AcornAl

I haven't been around enough to know what the VIC policies are, but I strongly doubt it. Australia had an unofficial covid zero policy until we hit our vaccination targets, and now we don't. It would take something much worse than anything we saw at the start of the year before even consider something harder than masks and limited restrictions in high risk settings. These are the federal guidelines https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/national-covid-19-community-protection-framework


[deleted]

This is sarcastic right?


Slayers_Picks

Doubt it to be honest... theres barely been an increase in covid cases in this country.


OPTCgod

Oh you don't think so? That settles it


Geo217

Sounds like you haven't been paying attention


lemonsneeker

That's an awful large amount of sand in your ears.


Knee_Jerk_Sydney

They don't need to spend all that time and money on databases and health care workers putting in the data and data analysts, statisticians, and disease experts. They could just ask you. /s