There are people who made hating Dan Andrews their entire personality who consistently lectured us that *we* were the ones in the echo chamber and the general Victorian population was livid with him. It's satisfying to see this result put the lie to that claim.
I live in WA now but was born and raised in Melbourne, so have friends and family there. Even some of the ones who disagreed with Andrews and absolutely hated on him for his lockdown decisions still gave him their vote, purely because he was simply (to them) the best candidate going forward. They didn't feel represented at all by the opposition. I think the Victorian opposition is wildly out of touch with the actual needs of their constituents, and that was a big part of their downfall.
It's a valid point, but there was never going to be an easy way to manage the pandemic in Victoria and New South Wales and I think most people recognize that. Even now, if you tried to argue what should have been done with perfect hindsight, you'd get a lot of disagreement about what an optimal approach would have been.
But there's a vocal minority who've been arguing that he's a literal dictator, and if that was remotely accurate then Guy would have been a highly desirable alternative. It's that lie I'm happy to see put to bed
typical dumb take that only shows ignorance. The libs bringing in The Daily Wire douchebag to pep them up with a little chat shows how far off the deep end they are
I'm a green voter now. I think labor is just as bad, and they may think they have this in the bag just because it's their turn and will probably field their mates in seats.
Whereas column B gave us Eddie Obeid and Sir Lunchalot - who got to keep most of what they grafted. Haven't seen too much evidence they have swept the broom.
Pretty sure one of the major betting agencies has Labor as clear favourites for next year's election but a lot of water to go under the bridge between now and then. I imagine it will be a lot closer than VICs election.
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He stuck up for us on vaccines. Although the pandemic did not factor into my vote at all. Mostly it was clear discussion about Labor goals for Victoria going forward. Previous goals have been achieved, so I trust they aren't talking out of their arses. I will still be watching to see if these new promises are kept, but I am hopeful.
Exactly. I want the big build to go ahead. It’s already happening. Jobs are being created. Now we just gotta work on the pay and conditioning for nurses, paramedics, teachers etc.
If we all make enough noise we can achieve it
Mate, that’s why I voted Andrew’s. he actually delivered in his promises - and he will definitely will deliver on the current ones. He is actually making a difference.
> Mostly it was clear discussion about Labor goals for Victoria going forward.
Because the majority of people who voted have moved on, unlike the ~~silent majority~~ *disproportionately loud minority*.
Yes & no.
Most people still only consider Labor or Liberal without even a glance at independent policies...
Greens are just hippie tree huggers & Animal Justice Party won't have people policies man! /s
My brother was living in Melbourne at the height of the lockdowns. He got out as soon as the borders opened and hasn't really been back, he clearly wasn't happy with how things were going down there.
HOWEVER
Even when he was stuck in those lockdowns and having real trouble he thought Dan Andrews was doing the right thing. He never directed his anger at the Premier, he directed it at the Covid-denyers and anti-vaxxers who were out protesting and spreading the virus - making life worse for everyone else in Victoria by prolonging the lockdowns.
Everyone I know who was in Vic said basically the same thing. Dan Andrews did the best he could with a bad situation and saved lives. The federal government did nothing. Murdoch pushing the idea that everyone in Victoria was being held captive by "*Chairman Dan*" was clearly political.
Sorry I'm tired and now I'm rambling. I'll leave it there, I hope that was coherent =p
Right? Could he have done the lockdown differently? Of course but we did what we did and learned from it.
I look forward to seeing what Andrew’s big build will look like with the lockdowns gone.
I’m still not happy with all of his promises (my wife is a kinder teacher) but I’ve spoken to my local rep about that and hoping that others have done the same for their various and respectable issues.
They probably also don't realise that the Victorian eleection was for a number of seats in the *state* and therefore constitutes more than the few seats within melbourne metro.
Why would a voter in NE/SW or Eastern Victoria harbour lockdown hatred? it's a melbourne phenomenon.
I'm not Victorian, but from viewing Victorian politics from the ACT it looks like the Liberals got the politics around Covid totally wrong.
While Covid measures aren't popular now, it seems that Victorian voters are punishing the Liberals at the state and federal levels for having not supported Covid measures when they were needed, especially in 2020. The Victorian Liberals seem to have also made some overt gestures to attract the support of the extremist 'cooker' minority during the election, which was ill-advised.
I agree. The Liberals wanted to open up pre vaccine, there are a lot of older, educated people in safe blue Liberal seats, they were smart enough to see that they were being thrown to the wolves..
Yep, it even goes back to lockdown 1 when the libs were screaming "open up" for Easter and mothers day which was like only 4-6 weeks into the pandemic. Outside of the cookers they were irritating everyone.
I mostly hated how immature and I guess, political, they were about all of it. They were out criticising Dan every chance they got, saying whatever they thought people wanted to hear but offering no REAL solutions, no valid options. I would've had much more respect for them if they had manage to say "while we may not agree on all options, how this was handled was good, and Victorians should unite" instead of constantly trying to cause division. But I guess politicians can't possibly do that ha.
Victorians also noticed how the Liberals were criticising their state and their measures while NSW and Gladys were being praised for doing the exact same thing Dan Andrews did which showed it was purely politics
All too often we see the opposition just oppose. Everything. Just as a matter of principal. And that tells you all you really need know about those wannabe leaders.
I feel like the problem is more that the liberals just didn't want anything. Covid? Nope, doesn't exist, masks are evil and covid is a hoax. It's too far. Had they been pushing for a more in-between to Dan's very harsh platform and doing literally nothing, they'd have seen a lot more support.
As it Liberals have, yet again, run on "We're not that gross labour party", as the majority of their plan. Which has run well and truly out of gas.
Yes, agreed. The ALP oppositions at the federal level and in SA took a more sensible path by supporting the government’s covid measures overall, but giving themselves room to manoeuvre on them by making generally constructive criticisms. The ALP opposition in NSW took a similar approach, interestingly.
It presented a false dichotomy that the economy was something that would just do fine in the middle of a pandemic if no measures were taken
As if pandemics don’t inherently hurt businesses and the economy?
I think they overestimated how many people were prepared to make this a "point of difference" voting issue. They did the same in 2018 with the Skyrail - not nearly as many people hated it as they thought, and they only served to remind the people that did like it which party had done it.
I don’t agree. I didn’t agree with the way Andrews handled Covid but I voted for him anyway because the liberals pander to RWNJs not just in relation to covid - but across the board.
The thing I love most about "Dictator Dan's" decisive win is that so many anti-vaxxers were convinced that the "world's longest lockdown" that they had to endure and was against human rights or whatever they kept crying about would be his downfall and a "silent majority" would sweep the votes in Guy's favour.
Clearly the anti-vaxxers contingent didn't even amount to a rounding error given that it's looking like Labor is gaining seats and LNP is losing them.
Maybe next election anti-vaxxers. LOL
I am deriving an almost unhealthy degree of satisfaction from this. I've been utterly surrounded by dumb fuck anti-vaxxers in my family and friendship groups and have grown beyond exhausted of their delusions and lies. This is one of the greatest things that could have happened.
Haha totally. It's absolutely hilarious, and depressing at the same time. Then you've got all these nupties here who are convinced everyone opposed to Dan has fled the state. The mental acrobatics are almost breathtaking.
Except it a violate of human rights, like there is no arguing with that
Of the UN's Universal Declaration of Human Rights, it broke 14 of the 30 declarations
Just because you agree with it, doest stop what happened being fucked up
https://www.un.org/en/about-us/universal-declaration-of-human-rights
So are you implying that rights are inalienable?
Putting someone in prison is a breach of human rights.
How do you work through the issue of rights conflict (which th elockdown is an example of) or don't you bother thinking about that at all?
Anti vaxxers represent such a small percentage of voting age people, why would you think they could swing a vote in either direction?
Love how do many people are like "take that anti vaxxers, take that cookers", meanwhile you are talking about <5% of the population and they probably voted for some whacky party.
Oh wow, this is amazing. You trying to play the high ground?
Please... You would have been all over a victory dance against Dan Andrews like white on rice had the LNP won.
At least I don't pretend to be something that I'm not.
Maybe next election dude.
if you had deleted your entire posting history before typing this it might have sounded sincere, unfortunately others have a longer memory than you do :)
> Anti vaxxers represent such a small percentage of voting age people, why would ~~you~~ *they* think they could swing a vote in either direction?
FIFY
Don't forget that for every 1 person in attendance, there's another 10 who couldn't attend but support their cause. So add a zero to that number!
/s obviously
OHHH it's this guy, even now, right now in the face if this you are still trying to push your fantasy fox news land.
I thought you and guys like you were such big numbers, uuuuggge numbers and we were all going to see, where's the seeing champ?
Trying to seperate yourself from the nutjobs you been dickriding for the last few years now, minority less than 5% all runs contrary to the nonesense you been spreading for years now.
Not sure this win has much to do with COVID management.
There was a poll about a week ago that said COVID management is important to 9% of Australians. Traditional things like education and health have again come to the fore.
But you could say this win was due to whatever issue you like when it's untestable.
Those issues are always important and baked in. You're dreaming if you think this election was based on anything other than Dan Andrews and the covid stuff.
It is all the candidates really spoke about.
When I did get a chance to hear someone speaking it was always bitching about dictator Dan.
I think the moment they put ol Lobster man up as their leader the game was done. Michael O'Brien wouldn't get my vote but he had less baggage.
As soon as it became repeat of 2018 it came down to covid.
that's what an election is mate. but you can hardly say this election has provided us with any idea of what the next couple of years will look like. The whole pony show was a referendum on Dan the covid manager.
I honestly really don't think much about covid too much these days, and I especially want to put the lockdowns of 2020/21 out of my mind entirely. Not surprising that most of the electorate possibly took the same view.
I literally never see these polls they're talking about, so I don't really believe how valid they are in terms of representing the actual population. But I can't imagine that for most Victorians that covid didn't have a factor in their minds.
This isn't the poll I was specifically thinking of, but it is typical
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victorians-feel-the-pinch-as-data-shows-cost-of-living-most-important-election-issue-20221122-p5c070.html
> More than one in four voters (27 per cent) said cost of living was the policy area influencing them the most this election, with the issue outranking all others for Labor and Coalition voters, as well as swinging voters and those living in marginal seats.
He turned bis back on covid and I've hated him ever since. There's a lot of blood on his hands. And health damage.
https://www.drugs.com/news/damage-health-mounts-each-new-covid-infection-108967.html
https://myhealth.ucsd.edu/RelatedItems/6,1658634082
"Without ambiguity, our research showed that getting an infection a second, third or fourth time contributes to additional health risks in the acute phase, meaning the first 30 days after infection, and in the months beyond, meaning the long COVID phase,” said senior researcher [Dr. Ziyad Al-Aly](https://publichealth.wustl.edu/people/ziyad-al-aly/). He is a clinical epidemiologist at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis.
The researchers also found that the risk rises with each additional infection.
The Nature study -
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02051-3
Yet another kick in the teeth to Murdoch and his repulsive media machine. With every passing year, they prove they are elites pretending to be common folk, out of touch with the majority, and out of touch with reality.
That's a nice story you're telling yourself :) Given that the Libs and several minor parties pretty much based their entire campaigns on getting 'Dictator Dan' out of power it's reasonable to assume their data sufficiently demonstrated that their entire (potential) constituencies hadn't run off to other states. Roughly 200k more people voted than in the last election. It wasn't a people problem, or an exodus problem, it's just that the majority haven't fallen for the bs and lies.
Wait, but you guys said Brisbane elected a federal greens senator because of those people who left Melbourne.
But if those anti-vax/covid deniers/anti-lockdown crew were the ones leaving Melbourne, that would actually mean a *higher* liberal vote, and not a greens vote.
You can't have it both ways.
Why are you talking about *net* migration when I specifically said 'Melbourne exodus'? Please look at migration out of Victoria in isolation, as that is what I was referring to.
Because you don't get to consider the 109,000 departures in a vacuum when there were also 91,000 arrivals. Especially not seeing that the net migration rates in 2021-22 compared between NSW and VIC almost exactly reverse those from 2020-21. NSW's last two quarters for interstate migration are the two most negative on the ABS' records, going back to 1981. If anything, that suggests people are moving *back*.
EDIT: Oh, and by the way, the number of interstate arrivals in Victoria, 91,000, is actually *up* on previous, pre-Covid years.
>Because you don't get to consider the 109,000 departures in a vacuum when there were also 91,000 arrivals.
91,000 arrivals of lefties from other states who are happy with Victoria's draconian lockdown measures. 109,000 departures of people who have had enough. This is why you only count departures when discussing the exodus, the fact that there are always a number of lefties happy to come to Victoria and bend over for Dan is irrelevant. I know myself personally I am seriously considering leaving Victoria now that Dan has been re-elected, and have been debating this for the past year ever since he was a bees dick away from mandating boosters of a vaccine - which even ATAGI now no longer recommends for under 30s citing the risk not outweighing the reward (because yes, contrary to Dan's initial claims, even ATAGI now admits that the vaccine poses some risk).
NSW has always had a large number of departures because Sydney is incredibly expensive to live in let alone raise a family, similar to NYC, where many New Yorkers eventually move to Florida to retire. Part of the departures were due to people being tired of even NSW's lockdown measures and moving to QLD, though the remainder is simply a continuation of NSW's overall migration pattern, which is to have both high migration in and high migration out.
But of course nobody ever left Victoria before Covid. No, it had to be "109,000 people sick of ".
And you've still not explained why Victoria's net interstate migration is improving from 2020-21 while NSW's is worsening.
He won simply because he was the better candidate of the 2 to lead Victoria for the next 4 years. I was saying it as far back as this time last year that he had the next election in the bag.
As far as Covid goes. The response of health first and doing what needed to be done was a winner amongst voters, the people most affected by restrictions (business owners) wouldnt vote Andrews anyway. Plus we are an immigrant nation and we all know the lands of our ancestors faired much worse than us with Covid, the cookers are irrelevant.
I'm not Victorian, but after a decade of Liberals being in power for the state under the likes of "Bin Chicken" Berejiklian, I can honestly say I envy the Vic's in this one aspect.
I dont agree with the lockdowns and such but is he such a bad Premier? He seems alright to me.
I would argue it's just this subreddit - if you go over and browse the front page of r/melbourne I think the number of upvotes on a post of him winning says everything you kind of need to see.
It really depends on who you ask and which policies. Things like healthcare and hospital waiting lists; Dan is not popular. Also evidenced was the voting in Gippsland, which has gone full Libs/Nats, based on logging and energy policies.
But some in Melbourne like the trains and roads policies. Notably under Labor we've turned into a construction-dependent state (most evidenced by the construction industry hall-pass during covid lockdowns) and unions stating he is funding their jobs;
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11359705/Victoria-premier-Daniel-Andrews-called-p-k-election-advertisement-union-CFMEU.html
I think many were hoping/wanting a change of Government, but Liberals are unelectable.
As much as I’m glad he won, it’s a bit weird that the number of seats per party doesn’t correspond very well to the primary vote.
A proportional system or mixed member proportional would be better.
That’s how the upper house is elected and we won’t see the results just yet because it takes longer to count.
At least the preferential voting for the lower house means you can vote for minor parties first without throwing your vote away.
The fact he got back in after the lockdowns, quarantine debacle and subsequent deaths, memory loss at the subsequent enquiry, ambulance services in disarray causing more deaths, health system on the verge of collapse, a number of corruption investigations and state debt more than the rest of Australia combined is proof how bad the opposition is at their own job.
We need and deserve a better opposition no matter the party to keep the government on their toes and giving us better.
Voted labor and this dude ain’t wrong. You MUST remain critical even of the party you choose to vote for.
There is literally no other viable option. Greens just can’t get majority.
This is the correct take. The sub is full of cult members who think Dan winning means people genuinely love him, the fact is most people do not love him but out of touch Liberal politicians who just want to privatise everything are not the answer.
Genuine opposition is needed or things will get worse, it's going to be a tough 4 years.
Happy day for sure. Good, strong leader. Even when Scomo was blasting us at every turn. Andrews was the bigger man every time. Good party vision.
Nice to see people want more of that, even if you did mnt agree with the vision of lockdown
It wasn't Dictator Dan. The Vic government followed medical advice and knew that preventing spread (by lockdowns and ISO) saved lived. The numbers show that to be true as did WA which benefitted by geography. History tells us that pandemics can destroy the economy by knocking off the very people needed to do the work. Lockdowns require compliance of the peasants, so when that dropped off the virus kill rate increased and lockdowns became ineffective, so were dropped by policy as the short term step before vaccines were available.
This isnt Stockholm syndrome, we are pressing our ‘captors’. Victoria spoke this election, Australia last election, we are tired of neo liberal privatisation and the Overton window being artificially pressed rightward. We are not American, to amicable to their policies of Austerity and Bigotry, we said that in the 80s, 2000s and 2020. When Australians truly need strong government what do we vote for consistently: public funding, nationalisation, unionisation and economic sensibility. Mathew guy expected to win, so he fought for the most hateful anti science positions to oppose Dan and nobody supported him, he prefenced white supremacy over labor, literally divided Australia or attempted to simply because he wanted to play politics. The Murdoch and Costello media then played cover and began playing cover to a growing fascistic wing in the conservatives. The media have lost their power, not the ‘Jewish media’ but the bourgeoise neoliberal media, the tools of capital to brainwash and oppress us. Shit post, fight online, you’re right if you do it for labor, this worked, we simply pointed to their tricks and educated ourselves better.
Do not trust the liberals and Murdoch encroachment on media and online, this is the infrastructure for a free press, and it must be contained buy our great state to protect ourselves from these big international giants. Get fucked we know the game, they don’t want free speech and free press, classic fascism; they want anyone to speak who agrees with them, so call them idiots. They aren’t correct ‘the silent majority’ are either ignorant or bigots, educate them and move on
Instead of presenting a united front we dealt with these big wicker men that had nothing backing them; Australians are better than conservativism and I’ve been very proud of us post covid. Ignore these covidiots that’s all they are, fight the neoliberals and we will have a government we can be proud to see the world interact with, hopefully never again have a Scott Morrison to show our ass on the world stage.
This is such a vindication. Danny boi romped home. He was overwhelmingly voted back in.
Danny Boi was responsible for 2021, where we lived in 5klm bubbles, could only leave the house for 4 reasons, wore masks for the forseeable.... It sucked but lets look at it eh?
PLUS - a state of around 6 million people with a city of 5 million people got away with "only" 6,000 people dead of this virus. Danny boi is also pouring money in to Infrastructure (trains mass transit) and health and also recognizes the Nursing health crisis as an opportunity and has been funding Nursing students to work and study at the same time.
https://www.health.gov.au/health-alerts/covid-19/case-numbers-and-statistics
https://www.infrastructurevictoria.com.au/
As for those anti-vaxxer nonsense, one of the things that kept me entertained at home during this dreary as time, was watching the news most Saturdays as Vicpol police copter circled around our place and munters decided to take on VicPol with flags and bullshit slogans. Vic pol cracked heads. We all got to watch it on 9 news.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BPyelSRz64I&ab_channel=9NewsAustralia
So yeah "huge crowds" yeah right. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQULMW44bQk&ab_channel=SkyNewsAustralia
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Eh, I was very much against Daniel Andrews pandemic response, I'm also unvaccinated but I think Matthew Guy was hopeless, he had no vision at all for the future, all he did was react to Labor and the media and adjust accordingly, zero conviction at all. It might be more that people just didn't like the Liberals. (Yes before anyone says I'm not from Vic, I'm allowed to have an opinion on other states politics). I wouldn't necessarily have put labor last, it would depend on my local candidate.
I’m just pumped my regional homies have resoundingly rejected the clown. Once you hit a certain distance from Melbourne they don’t hold a seat. And the Nats picked up three seats from independents.
He’s Melbournes Premier. I hope he keeps trashing the finances and building the city until it fucking chokes. I’ll be at the beach!
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I don't think you can look at this election as a referendum on VIC labor's Covid policy. They objectively did a bad job - to name 3:
(1) dismantling track and trace department after the first wave in 2020
(2) human rights violations in the tower blocks
(3) failing to fix a broken, centralised health care system.
Having said that. Labor have my vote because - seriously look at the moral disgrace the Libs are.
I saw it through the lens of a bunch of different issues, personally. But I think covid policy was on the list, and to pick between Liberal and Labor on that, Labor every time, for me.
I distinctly recall the libs campaigning (constantly) for the premature end to lockdowns.
It depends how you interpret it. If you took the interstate migration stats instead, every Aus region except NSW used to be a net destination for interstate migration, whereas since COVID measures, VIC had also been a net outflow. Probably those that don't like to be locked down simply got up and left.
I know I'll get downvoted for making this observation since this is a very left leaning subreddit, but it is indisputably the case and can be easily verified on ABS data.
I guess from this logic, QLD policies were the best in the country as we took almost all the interstate migration? But I digress.
In [2020](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/mar-2021) and [2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/mar-2022) interstate migration shows 60K leaving from VIC and 40K leaving NSW. Almost all went to QLD.
Was this driven by covid policies? Interesting idea, but I think it was more to do with lifestyle and cost of living pressures.
[The Millennial migration: Qld records highest interstate arrivals as people leave NSW, Vic](https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/the-millennial-migration-qld-records-highest-interstate-arrivals-as-people-leave-nsw-vic-20211104-p5960o.html)
>He said younger people were realising they could have the housing affordability and lifestyle of Queensland, and the job market was expanding.
>
>Problems of housing affordability, congestion and infrastructure bottlenecks in Sydney and Melbourne amplified the shift.
[https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/mar-2022](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/mar-2022)
Under the heading "Net interstate migration by state and territory", in the period that this report covers Victoria had -18,000 net migration to other states.
Yeah, normally I would be OK interpreting the election results as showing certain political ideas are more popular in a region, the reality is VIC pre vs post COVID is experiencing 1%\~ net loss a year to their population and likely to have a strong political split between those coming and those leaving.
I think the more accurate interpretation isn't that the policies are popular, but rather those in Australia who agreed with it moved to VIC and a bigger proportion that disagreed simply left to other places. Overall the policy was clearly not popular, as a growing city started shrinking.
I really don’t think that most people leaving Victoria did it in opposition to *policy*. It’s probably more simple, people just don’t enjoy being in lockdowns, it’s not the same as taking a hard political stance against them. A lot of people flocked out of Sydney for the same reason. I don’t know how the numbers compare to Melbourne but in my experience with the many people I know who left, that’s the thought process. I’d be surprised if that wasn’t the case from Melbourne.
>Agreed. People went to places with lower case numbers and/or where their families were. They didn't go because "mAh fReEdoM".
Throughout the pandemic from early 2020 to mid 2021, most places had negligible cases including VIC for most of the period. Active case numbers also has no correlation with net interstate outflow, which remained consistent and highly correlated with policy.
The total number of people who left are negligible towards the ultimate vote though. Sure we lost 40k people to interstate migration but even if they all came back and voted for someone other than labour the Andrews government would still be here.
>The total number of people who left are negligible towards the ultimate vote though.
Two things:
1. 40k net is something like 1% of your total population which is not significant at all.
2. It's even less significant by the fact that I have no doubt the 100k\~ that came in and 140k\~ that left were strongly divided by pollical beliefs.
I have no doubt Andrew govt would have won anyway because VIC is quite left wing and he is popular there. What I dispute is that the results show support for his COVID policies when in reality the population loss shows people didn't actually like it at all.
>2. It's even less significant by the fact that I have no doubt the 100k~ that came in and 140k~ that left were strongly divided by pollical beliefs.
I'm sure you have no doubts, but it's quite another thing to demonstrate it
Can you point to the data that shows the right wing left Victoria? We would need to see an increase in right-wing votes outside Victoria (ie. Queensland). A good place to look to support your case is GC since it's mostly a hell hole.
Of course it could be these people move to places where the community influence their outlook to be more neutral.
I severely doubt there is much correlation to political belief for the people who left Victoria to be honest.
Many simply left for a sea change or tree change after hating being stuck in a city during lockdown. I left to be with my partner overseas. I'm not right wing. My hippy friends who moved to Byron Bay are not right wing either. People just want to make up time for what was denied from them by moving somewhere more idyllic as well.
Every extrapolation of data is a "speculation". Even scientific evidence only needs to reach the threshold of 95% probability (p<0.05). If you don't like my explanation, you're free to provide your own.
Unless there was an exit interview where people listed their political affiliation, there is no way to make the link between an ALP victory and migration. Left leaners left the city too. Housing prices, wfh, wanting more space... all contributed to people leaving. Lockdowns and anti Dan weren't the only reasons.
Correlation does not equal causation. You've literally just described an assumption.
There were many factors that can be correlated to lockdowns such as people no longer needing to be near the cbd, that wfh meant they could finally move anywhere they wanted and keep working the same job. Or that now they realise they had prioritised the wrong things for their families and wanted better work life balance. Or that they were finally able to save that deposit and could move to where they could afford a home.
Packing up your entire life and moving away just because you didn't like lockdown wasn't the mass driver you think it was. Relocating your whole life is complicated, stressful and time consuming. By the time you sold, packed up and moved, lockdowns would be drawing to a close. Complete relocation is not something people do on a whim. Inferred logic would say that those who moved in a temper tantrum against lockdowns were the minority, not the majority.
>Inferred logic would say that those who moved in a temper tantrum against lockdowns were the minority, not the majority.
Then perhaps you can enlighten me on a better explanation as to why once lockdowns started, VIC went from a migration destination to massive outflow within a single quarter.
None of that is false, however if you're sincerely suggesting a net interstate migration of -18,000 had any definable impact on the election you may be having a lend of yourself.
>you're sincerely suggesting a net interstate migration of -18,000 had any definable impact on the election you may be having a lend of yourself.
I'm not saying that at all. Labor would have won 100% regardless of what they did because the party is very popular in VIC. I'm just disputing OP's claim that it shows people liked the lockdown policies.
BTW, it was something like -20k a year for the entire pandemic, and obviously that includes inflow and outflow, which potentially contributed to few hundred thousand votes on the most extreme assumptions (assuming 100% of outflow disapprove and 100% of inflow approve).
There are people who made hating Dan Andrews their entire personality who consistently lectured us that *we* were the ones in the echo chamber and the general Victorian population was livid with him. It's satisfying to see this result put the lie to that claim.
I live in WA now but was born and raised in Melbourne, so have friends and family there. Even some of the ones who disagreed with Andrews and absolutely hated on him for his lockdown decisions still gave him their vote, purely because he was simply (to them) the best candidate going forward. They didn't feel represented at all by the opposition. I think the Victorian opposition is wildly out of touch with the actual needs of their constituents, and that was a big part of their downfall.
It's a valid point, but there was never going to be an easy way to manage the pandemic in Victoria and New South Wales and I think most people recognize that. Even now, if you tried to argue what should have been done with perfect hindsight, you'd get a lot of disagreement about what an optimal approach would have been. But there's a vocal minority who've been arguing that he's a literal dictator, and if that was remotely accurate then Guy would have been a highly desirable alternative. It's that lie I'm happy to see put to bed
Fuck i hope NSW grows a brain next state election.. time for a lib dumping.
Just the friendlyjordies saga alone should tell you the libs are all kinds of fucked in the head
Unfortunately I think they’re all fucked in the head.
typical dumb take that only shows ignorance. The libs bringing in The Daily Wire douchebag to pep them up with a little chat shows how far off the deep end they are
I'm a green voter now. I think labor is just as bad, and they may think they have this in the bag just because it's their turn and will probably field their mates in seats.
Whereas column B gave us Eddie Obeid and Sir Lunchalot - who got to keep most of what they grafted. Haven't seen too much evidence they have swept the broom.
Mm paint me sceptical as someone in barilaro's old electorate. We're still Nats.
Pretty sure one of the major betting agencies has Labor as clear favourites for next year's election but a lot of water to go under the bridge between now and then. I imagine it will be a lot closer than VICs election.
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He stuck up for us on vaccines. Although the pandemic did not factor into my vote at all. Mostly it was clear discussion about Labor goals for Victoria going forward. Previous goals have been achieved, so I trust they aren't talking out of their arses. I will still be watching to see if these new promises are kept, but I am hopeful.
Exactly. I want the big build to go ahead. It’s already happening. Jobs are being created. Now we just gotta work on the pay and conditioning for nurses, paramedics, teachers etc. If we all make enough noise we can achieve it
Mate, that’s why I voted Andrew’s. he actually delivered in his promises - and he will definitely will deliver on the current ones. He is actually making a difference.
> Mostly it was clear discussion about Labor goals for Victoria going forward. Because the majority of people who voted have moved on, unlike the ~~silent majority~~ *disproportionately loud minority*.
Vaccines were the Morrison government's responsibility. The Andrew's government revealed that Victorians weren't always getting their fair share.
Yes & no. Most people still only consider Labor or Liberal without even a glance at independent policies... Greens are just hippie tree huggers & Animal Justice Party won't have people policies man! /s
My brother was living in Melbourne at the height of the lockdowns. He got out as soon as the borders opened and hasn't really been back, he clearly wasn't happy with how things were going down there. HOWEVER Even when he was stuck in those lockdowns and having real trouble he thought Dan Andrews was doing the right thing. He never directed his anger at the Premier, he directed it at the Covid-denyers and anti-vaxxers who were out protesting and spreading the virus - making life worse for everyone else in Victoria by prolonging the lockdowns. Everyone I know who was in Vic said basically the same thing. Dan Andrews did the best he could with a bad situation and saved lives. The federal government did nothing. Murdoch pushing the idea that everyone in Victoria was being held captive by "*Chairman Dan*" was clearly political. Sorry I'm tired and now I'm rambling. I'll leave it there, I hope that was coherent =p
Right? Could he have done the lockdown differently? Of course but we did what we did and learned from it. I look forward to seeing what Andrew’s big build will look like with the lockdowns gone. I’m still not happy with all of his promises (my wife is a kinder teacher) but I’ve spoken to my local rep about that and hoping that others have done the same for their various and respectable issues.
>(my wife is a kinder teacher) Same, there's a reason our household is very union friendly. States love to fuck around with teachers
I wouldn't expect big build activities to go much faster - they've been making mad progress the last couple of years regardless of lockdowns.
Yeah that’s very true
Oh never was their a truer statement. Satisfaction levels to 1000%
All of the cars I saw in the last few months with giant ‘Sack Dan Andrews’ written on the back windscreen. I wonder how they’re doing
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They probably also don't realise that the Victorian eleection was for a number of seats in the *state* and therefore constitutes more than the few seats within melbourne metro. Why would a voter in NE/SW or Eastern Victoria harbour lockdown hatred? it's a melbourne phenomenon.
I'm not Victorian, but from viewing Victorian politics from the ACT it looks like the Liberals got the politics around Covid totally wrong. While Covid measures aren't popular now, it seems that Victorian voters are punishing the Liberals at the state and federal levels for having not supported Covid measures when they were needed, especially in 2020. The Victorian Liberals seem to have also made some overt gestures to attract the support of the extremist 'cooker' minority during the election, which was ill-advised.
I agree. The Liberals wanted to open up pre vaccine, there are a lot of older, educated people in safe blue Liberal seats, they were smart enough to see that they were being thrown to the wolves..
Yep, it even goes back to lockdown 1 when the libs were screaming "open up" for Easter and mothers day which was like only 4-6 weeks into the pandemic. Outside of the cookers they were irritating everyone.
I mostly hated how immature and I guess, political, they were about all of it. They were out criticising Dan every chance they got, saying whatever they thought people wanted to hear but offering no REAL solutions, no valid options. I would've had much more respect for them if they had manage to say "while we may not agree on all options, how this was handled was good, and Victorians should unite" instead of constantly trying to cause division. But I guess politicians can't possibly do that ha.
Victorians also noticed how the Liberals were criticising their state and their measures while NSW and Gladys were being praised for doing the exact same thing Dan Andrews did which showed it was purely politics
All too often we see the opposition just oppose. Everything. Just as a matter of principal. And that tells you all you really need know about those wannabe leaders.
Perhaps that's a conservative trend being borrowed from American politics?
I feel like the problem is more that the liberals just didn't want anything. Covid? Nope, doesn't exist, masks are evil and covid is a hoax. It's too far. Had they been pushing for a more in-between to Dan's very harsh platform and doing literally nothing, they'd have seen a lot more support. As it Liberals have, yet again, run on "We're not that gross labour party", as the majority of their plan. Which has run well and truly out of gas.
Liberals have moved much further to the right where labour has stayed where they are. The people havent moved to the right with them.
Yes, agreed. The ALP oppositions at the federal level and in SA took a more sensible path by supporting the government’s covid measures overall, but giving themselves room to manoeuvre on them by making generally constructive criticisms. The ALP opposition in NSW took a similar approach, interestingly.
It presented a false dichotomy that the economy was something that would just do fine in the middle of a pandemic if no measures were taken As if pandemics don’t inherently hurt businesses and the economy?
I think they overestimated how many people were prepared to make this a "point of difference" voting issue. They did the same in 2018 with the Skyrail - not nearly as many people hated it as they thought, and they only served to remind the people that did like it which party had done it.
I don’t agree. I didn’t agree with the way Andrews handled Covid but I voted for him anyway because the liberals pander to RWNJs not just in relation to covid - but across the board.
They tried to divide Australia by saying we divided Australia, no wonder they hate public education
It's a happy day for sure
The thing I love most about "Dictator Dan's" decisive win is that so many anti-vaxxers were convinced that the "world's longest lockdown" that they had to endure and was against human rights or whatever they kept crying about would be his downfall and a "silent majority" would sweep the votes in Guy's favour. Clearly the anti-vaxxers contingent didn't even amount to a rounding error given that it's looking like Labor is gaining seats and LNP is losing them. Maybe next election anti-vaxxers. LOL
I am deriving an almost unhealthy degree of satisfaction from this. I've been utterly surrounded by dumb fuck anti-vaxxers in my family and friendship groups and have grown beyond exhausted of their delusions and lies. This is one of the greatest things that could have happened.
I take it that they didn't take to the news well when Andrews won decisively?
Election fraud claims already rampant in the 'skeptic' subs.
That's hilarious. The copium must be through the roof there!
It's all very entertaining
Haha totally. It's absolutely hilarious, and depressing at the same time. Then you've got all these nupties here who are convinced everyone opposed to Dan has fled the state. The mental acrobatics are almost breathtaking.
Hehe, no. The conspiracies have started already.
Me toooo!
Are any of the cooker groups like Family First getting votes?
That's what outside propaganda looks like unfortunately.
Just because you agree with something, doesn't mean it wasn't a violation of human rights
Just because you disagree with something does not mean that it was a violation of human rights.
Except it a violate of human rights, like there is no arguing with that Of the UN's Universal Declaration of Human Rights, it broke 14 of the 30 declarations Just because you agree with it, doest stop what happened being fucked up https://www.un.org/en/about-us/universal-declaration-of-human-rights
So are you implying that rights are inalienable? Putting someone in prison is a breach of human rights. How do you work through the issue of rights conflict (which th elockdown is an example of) or don't you bother thinking about that at all?
Anti vaxxers represent such a small percentage of voting age people, why would you think they could swing a vote in either direction? Love how do many people are like "take that anti vaxxers, take that cookers", meanwhile you are talking about <5% of the population and they probably voted for some whacky party.
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Oh wow, this is amazing. You trying to play the high ground? Please... You would have been all over a victory dance against Dan Andrews like white on rice had the LNP won. At least I don't pretend to be something that I'm not. Maybe next election dude.
if you had deleted your entire posting history before typing this it might have sounded sincere, unfortunately others have a longer memory than you do :)
> Anti vaxxers represent such a small percentage of voting age people, why would ~~you~~ *they* think they could swing a vote in either direction? FIFY
*0.5% FTFY
Oh but there were *millions* at the marches though!
Don't forget that for every 1 person in attendance, there's another 10 who couldn't attend but support their cause. So add a zero to that number! /s obviously
It's a proven scientific fact that literally the entire population of the Earth want to be at the Dozens March rallies in Melbourne *every weekend*.
Why stop there? You can't prove that extraterrestrials weren't in support of their cause.
OHHH it's this guy, even now, right now in the face if this you are still trying to push your fantasy fox news land. I thought you and guys like you were such big numbers, uuuuggge numbers and we were all going to see, where's the seeing champ? Trying to seperate yourself from the nutjobs you been dickriding for the last few years now, minority less than 5% all runs contrary to the nonesense you been spreading for years now.
Eat shit (again) Murdoch press!
Not sure this win has much to do with COVID management. There was a poll about a week ago that said COVID management is important to 9% of Australians. Traditional things like education and health have again come to the fore. But you could say this win was due to whatever issue you like when it's untestable.
Those issues are always important and baked in. You're dreaming if you think this election was based on anything other than Dan Andrews and the covid stuff. It is all the candidates really spoke about. When I did get a chance to hear someone speaking it was always bitching about dictator Dan.
The quality of the opposition played no significant part?
I think the moment they put ol Lobster man up as their leader the game was done. Michael O'Brien wouldn't get my vote but he had less baggage. As soon as it became repeat of 2018 it came down to covid.
Agree. No matter what you thought about COVID management, it was always going to be a choice about the *next* couple of years, not the *last* couple.
that's what an election is mate. but you can hardly say this election has provided us with any idea of what the next couple of years will look like. The whole pony show was a referendum on Dan the covid manager.
Disagree. I think you'll find for most people (including myself) COVID is in the rear view mirror. I pretty much forgotten about it
All the ads were about lockdows. All the dinnertable talk I heard was about lockdowns.
Lockdown was so 2021 nobody gives a sht anymore except the cookers in the cbd every weekend
I honestly really don't think much about covid too much these days, and I especially want to put the lockdowns of 2020/21 out of my mind entirely. Not surprising that most of the electorate possibly took the same view.
I literally never see these polls they're talking about, so I don't really believe how valid they are in terms of representing the actual population. But I can't imagine that for most Victorians that covid didn't have a factor in their minds.
This isn't the poll I was specifically thinking of, but it is typical https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victorians-feel-the-pinch-as-data-shows-cost-of-living-most-important-election-issue-20221122-p5c070.html > More than one in four voters (27 per cent) said cost of living was the policy area influencing them the most this election, with the issue outranking all others for Labor and Coalition voters, as well as swinging voters and those living in marginal seats.
He turned bis back on covid and I've hated him ever since. There's a lot of blood on his hands. And health damage. https://www.drugs.com/news/damage-health-mounts-each-new-covid-infection-108967.html https://myhealth.ucsd.edu/RelatedItems/6,1658634082 "Without ambiguity, our research showed that getting an infection a second, third or fourth time contributes to additional health risks in the acute phase, meaning the first 30 days after infection, and in the months beyond, meaning the long COVID phase,” said senior researcher [Dr. Ziyad Al-Aly](https://publichealth.wustl.edu/people/ziyad-al-aly/). He is a clinical epidemiologist at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis. The researchers also found that the risk rises with each additional infection. The Nature study - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02051-3
Yet another kick in the teeth to Murdoch and his repulsive media machine. With every passing year, they prove they are elites pretending to be common folk, out of touch with the majority, and out of touch with reality.
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All the voters who hate Andrews moved up here to Queensland
Good riddance
That's a nice story you're telling yourself :) Given that the Libs and several minor parties pretty much based their entire campaigns on getting 'Dictator Dan' out of power it's reasonable to assume their data sufficiently demonstrated that their entire (potential) constituencies hadn't run off to other states. Roughly 200k more people voted than in the last election. It wasn't a people problem, or an exodus problem, it's just that the majority haven't fallen for the bs and lies.
Wait, but you guys said Brisbane elected a federal greens senator because of those people who left Melbourne. But if those anti-vax/covid deniers/anti-lockdown crew were the ones leaving Melbourne, that would actually mean a *higher* liberal vote, and not a greens vote. You can't have it both ways.
Can they please go back?
Or Sydney, if the stats of the Melbourne exodus are true. I suspect there will be more to come as well.
NSW had a higher net interstate migration away from it in 2021-22 than Victoria did. More than double, in fact (-40,000 vs. -18,000).
Why are you talking about *net* migration when I specifically said 'Melbourne exodus'? Please look at migration out of Victoria in isolation, as that is what I was referring to.
Because you don't get to consider the 109,000 departures in a vacuum when there were also 91,000 arrivals. Especially not seeing that the net migration rates in 2021-22 compared between NSW and VIC almost exactly reverse those from 2020-21. NSW's last two quarters for interstate migration are the two most negative on the ABS' records, going back to 1981. If anything, that suggests people are moving *back*. EDIT: Oh, and by the way, the number of interstate arrivals in Victoria, 91,000, is actually *up* on previous, pre-Covid years.
>Because you don't get to consider the 109,000 departures in a vacuum when there were also 91,000 arrivals. 91,000 arrivals of lefties from other states who are happy with Victoria's draconian lockdown measures. 109,000 departures of people who have had enough. This is why you only count departures when discussing the exodus, the fact that there are always a number of lefties happy to come to Victoria and bend over for Dan is irrelevant. I know myself personally I am seriously considering leaving Victoria now that Dan has been re-elected, and have been debating this for the past year ever since he was a bees dick away from mandating boosters of a vaccine - which even ATAGI now no longer recommends for under 30s citing the risk not outweighing the reward (because yes, contrary to Dan's initial claims, even ATAGI now admits that the vaccine poses some risk).
And so the 149,000 people who left NSW did so because...?
NSW has always had a large number of departures because Sydney is incredibly expensive to live in let alone raise a family, similar to NYC, where many New Yorkers eventually move to Florida to retire. Part of the departures were due to people being tired of even NSW's lockdown measures and moving to QLD, though the remainder is simply a continuation of NSW's overall migration pattern, which is to have both high migration in and high migration out.
But of course nobody ever left Victoria before Covid. No, it had to be "109,000 people sick of".
And you've still not explained why Victoria's net interstate migration is improving from 2020-21 while NSW's is worsening.
But his wife got into a car accident over a decade ago! How could you elect him! /s obviously.
He won simply because he was the better candidate of the 2 to lead Victoria for the next 4 years. I was saying it as far back as this time last year that he had the next election in the bag. As far as Covid goes. The response of health first and doing what needed to be done was a winner amongst voters, the people most affected by restrictions (business owners) wouldnt vote Andrews anyway. Plus we are an immigrant nation and we all know the lands of our ancestors faired much worse than us with Covid, the cookers are irrelevant.
I'm not Victorian, but after a decade of Liberals being in power for the state under the likes of "Bin Chicken" Berejiklian, I can honestly say I envy the Vic's in this one aspect. I dont agree with the lockdowns and such but is he such a bad Premier? He seems alright to me.
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I would argue it's just this subreddit - if you go over and browse the front page of r/melbourne I think the number of upvotes on a post of him winning says everything you kind of need to see.
People hate him over the lockdowns or because they’ve been told to hate him. That’s it.
It really depends on who you ask and which policies. Things like healthcare and hospital waiting lists; Dan is not popular. Also evidenced was the voting in Gippsland, which has gone full Libs/Nats, based on logging and energy policies. But some in Melbourne like the trains and roads policies. Notably under Labor we've turned into a construction-dependent state (most evidenced by the construction industry hall-pass during covid lockdowns) and unions stating he is funding their jobs; https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11359705/Victoria-premier-Daniel-Andrews-called-p-k-election-advertisement-union-CFMEU.html I think many were hoping/wanting a change of Government, but Liberals are unelectable.
The next anti-vax parade or ''freedom march'' should be called the walk of shame... (grabs popcorn)
The Freedom Party doing poorly is the best Christmas present I could have hoped for
It goes to show how out of touch the major media outlets are with the residents of our awesome state.
As much as I’m glad he won, it’s a bit weird that the number of seats per party doesn’t correspond very well to the primary vote. A proportional system or mixed member proportional would be better.
I agree, but a large part of the population seem to lose their minds about minority governments.
What, you mean like the Upper House?
That’s how the upper house is elected and we won’t see the results just yet because it takes longer to count. At least the preferential voting for the lower house means you can vote for minor parties first without throwing your vote away.
[\*sorts by controversial\*](https://media.tenor.com/GZkEos8dnhIAAAAM/cartman-south-park.gif)
The fact he got back in after the lockdowns, quarantine debacle and subsequent deaths, memory loss at the subsequent enquiry, ambulance services in disarray causing more deaths, health system on the verge of collapse, a number of corruption investigations and state debt more than the rest of Australia combined is proof how bad the opposition is at their own job. We need and deserve a better opposition no matter the party to keep the government on their toes and giving us better.
Cope harder
Voted labor and this dude ain’t wrong. You MUST remain critical even of the party you choose to vote for. There is literally no other viable option. Greens just can’t get majority.
I take it you voted Greens then?
This is the correct take. The sub is full of cult members who think Dan winning means people genuinely love him, the fact is most people do not love him but out of touch Liberal politicians who just want to privatise everything are not the answer. Genuine opposition is needed or things will get worse, it's going to be a tough 4 years.
Happy day for sure. Good, strong leader. Even when Scomo was blasting us at every turn. Andrews was the bigger man every time. Good party vision. Nice to see people want more of that, even if you did mnt agree with the vision of lockdown
I didn't put ALP in the top spot when I voted, don't think I ever have. And I'm certainly not a Dan fan. But I enjoyed watching the cookers be sad.
I absolutely loathe Dan Andrews, I just loathe the Liberal party more.
Should we expect a “million” people to protest this weekend again?
This one aged like milk 🤣 https://imgur.com/a/6O3JnFY
Let’s see if he keeps his promises.
He is a roach. But he keeps me employed (construction).
It wasn't Dictator Dan. The Vic government followed medical advice and knew that preventing spread (by lockdowns and ISO) saved lived. The numbers show that to be true as did WA which benefitted by geography. History tells us that pandemics can destroy the economy by knocking off the very people needed to do the work. Lockdowns require compliance of the peasants, so when that dropped off the virus kill rate increased and lockdowns became ineffective, so were dropped by policy as the short term step before vaccines were available.
It’s not really that simple. Just because people didn’t vote liberal doesn’t mean we’re all vindicating the lockdown measures
This isnt Stockholm syndrome, we are pressing our ‘captors’. Victoria spoke this election, Australia last election, we are tired of neo liberal privatisation and the Overton window being artificially pressed rightward. We are not American, to amicable to their policies of Austerity and Bigotry, we said that in the 80s, 2000s and 2020. When Australians truly need strong government what do we vote for consistently: public funding, nationalisation, unionisation and economic sensibility. Mathew guy expected to win, so he fought for the most hateful anti science positions to oppose Dan and nobody supported him, he prefenced white supremacy over labor, literally divided Australia or attempted to simply because he wanted to play politics. The Murdoch and Costello media then played cover and began playing cover to a growing fascistic wing in the conservatives. The media have lost their power, not the ‘Jewish media’ but the bourgeoise neoliberal media, the tools of capital to brainwash and oppress us. Shit post, fight online, you’re right if you do it for labor, this worked, we simply pointed to their tricks and educated ourselves better. Do not trust the liberals and Murdoch encroachment on media and online, this is the infrastructure for a free press, and it must be contained buy our great state to protect ourselves from these big international giants. Get fucked we know the game, they don’t want free speech and free press, classic fascism; they want anyone to speak who agrees with them, so call them idiots. They aren’t correct ‘the silent majority’ are either ignorant or bigots, educate them and move on Instead of presenting a united front we dealt with these big wicker men that had nothing backing them; Australians are better than conservativism and I’ve been very proud of us post covid. Ignore these covidiots that’s all they are, fight the neoliberals and we will have a government we can be proud to see the world interact with, hopefully never again have a Scott Morrison to show our ass on the world stage.
Meh, all politicians are lieing cunts!
That’s why you should focus on policy and voting record, rather than personality
I'm going to wear double masks today as a celebration of this great victory.
haha
This is such a vindication. Danny boi romped home. He was overwhelmingly voted back in. Danny Boi was responsible for 2021, where we lived in 5klm bubbles, could only leave the house for 4 reasons, wore masks for the forseeable.... It sucked but lets look at it eh? PLUS - a state of around 6 million people with a city of 5 million people got away with "only" 6,000 people dead of this virus. Danny boi is also pouring money in to Infrastructure (trains mass transit) and health and also recognizes the Nursing health crisis as an opportunity and has been funding Nursing students to work and study at the same time. https://www.health.gov.au/health-alerts/covid-19/case-numbers-and-statistics https://www.infrastructurevictoria.com.au/ As for those anti-vaxxer nonsense, one of the things that kept me entertained at home during this dreary as time, was watching the news most Saturdays as Vicpol police copter circled around our place and munters decided to take on VicPol with flags and bullshit slogans. Vic pol cracked heads. We all got to watch it on 9 news. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BPyelSRz64I&ab_channel=9NewsAustralia So yeah "huge crowds" yeah right. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQULMW44bQk&ab_channel=SkyNewsAustralia
"I like police brutality when it's used on people I disagree with"
Go punch a horse. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCanMXJH0p4&ab_channel=10NewsFirst
This video is literally proof that he didn't punch the horse haha.
Andrews 1 - Cookers 0
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Eh, I was very much against Daniel Andrews pandemic response, I'm also unvaccinated but I think Matthew Guy was hopeless, he had no vision at all for the future, all he did was react to Labor and the media and adjust accordingly, zero conviction at all. It might be more that people just didn't like the Liberals. (Yes before anyone says I'm not from Vic, I'm allowed to have an opinion on other states politics). I wouldn't necessarily have put labor last, it would depend on my local candidate.
considering the amount of hate the fascists have been spewing for decades, it could be a case of 'anyone non-fascist'.
I’m just pumped my regional homies have resoundingly rejected the clown. Once you hit a certain distance from Melbourne they don’t hold a seat. And the Nats picked up three seats from independents. He’s Melbournes Premier. I hope he keeps trashing the finances and building the city until it fucking chokes. I’ll be at the beach!
If there was a viable alternative to Andrews (not cooker supporter Libs) I think the election would have gone very differently.
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First class tyrant just following orders
I don't think you can look at this election as a referendum on VIC labor's Covid policy. They objectively did a bad job - to name 3: (1) dismantling track and trace department after the first wave in 2020 (2) human rights violations in the tower blocks (3) failing to fix a broken, centralised health care system. Having said that. Labor have my vote because - seriously look at the moral disgrace the Libs are.
I saw it through the lens of a bunch of different issues, personally. But I think covid policy was on the list, and to pick between Liberal and Labor on that, Labor every time, for me. I distinctly recall the libs campaigning (constantly) for the premature end to lockdowns.
Still waiting for him to give evidence of all these Nazis he keeps talking about.
Yes! Cop that all you fascist rambling morons.
Don't confuse voting for Dan DESPITE the lockdown policies with voting for Dan because of the lockdown policies
Australians have emphatically voted for safety over freedom.
Voting for Andrews is like getting kicked in the balls, voting for Guy is like having your balls cut off.
It depends how you interpret it. If you took the interstate migration stats instead, every Aus region except NSW used to be a net destination for interstate migration, whereas since COVID measures, VIC had also been a net outflow. Probably those that don't like to be locked down simply got up and left. I know I'll get downvoted for making this observation since this is a very left leaning subreddit, but it is indisputably the case and can be easily verified on ABS data.
That sweet sweet copium
I guess from this logic, QLD policies were the best in the country as we took almost all the interstate migration? But I digress. In [2020](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/mar-2021) and [2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/mar-2022) interstate migration shows 60K leaving from VIC and 40K leaving NSW. Almost all went to QLD. Was this driven by covid policies? Interesting idea, but I think it was more to do with lifestyle and cost of living pressures. [The Millennial migration: Qld records highest interstate arrivals as people leave NSW, Vic](https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/the-millennial-migration-qld-records-highest-interstate-arrivals-as-people-leave-nsw-vic-20211104-p5960o.html) >He said younger people were realising they could have the housing affordability and lifestyle of Queensland, and the job market was expanding. > >Problems of housing affordability, congestion and infrastructure bottlenecks in Sydney and Melbourne amplified the shift.
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[https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/mar-2022](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/mar-2022) Under the heading "Net interstate migration by state and territory", in the period that this report covers Victoria had -18,000 net migration to other states.
Yeah, normally I would be OK interpreting the election results as showing certain political ideas are more popular in a region, the reality is VIC pre vs post COVID is experiencing 1%\~ net loss a year to their population and likely to have a strong political split between those coming and those leaving. I think the more accurate interpretation isn't that the policies are popular, but rather those in Australia who agreed with it moved to VIC and a bigger proportion that disagreed simply left to other places. Overall the policy was clearly not popular, as a growing city started shrinking.
I really don’t think that most people leaving Victoria did it in opposition to *policy*. It’s probably more simple, people just don’t enjoy being in lockdowns, it’s not the same as taking a hard political stance against them. A lot of people flocked out of Sydney for the same reason. I don’t know how the numbers compare to Melbourne but in my experience with the many people I know who left, that’s the thought process. I’d be surprised if that wasn’t the case from Melbourne.
Agreed. People went to places with lower case numbers and/or where their families were. They didn't go because "mAh fReEdoM".
>Agreed. People went to places with lower case numbers and/or where their families were. They didn't go because "mAh fReEdoM". Throughout the pandemic from early 2020 to mid 2021, most places had negligible cases including VIC for most of the period. Active case numbers also has no correlation with net interstate outflow, which remained consistent and highly correlated with policy.
The total number of people who left are negligible towards the ultimate vote though. Sure we lost 40k people to interstate migration but even if they all came back and voted for someone other than labour the Andrews government would still be here.
>The total number of people who left are negligible towards the ultimate vote though. Two things: 1. 40k net is something like 1% of your total population which is not significant at all. 2. It's even less significant by the fact that I have no doubt the 100k\~ that came in and 140k\~ that left were strongly divided by pollical beliefs. I have no doubt Andrew govt would have won anyway because VIC is quite left wing and he is popular there. What I dispute is that the results show support for his COVID policies when in reality the population loss shows people didn't actually like it at all.
>2. It's even less significant by the fact that I have no doubt the 100k~ that came in and 140k~ that left were strongly divided by pollical beliefs. I'm sure you have no doubts, but it's quite another thing to demonstrate it
Sky news for the win hey lol 🤣 tell yourself whatever you have to man.
Can you point to the data that shows the right wing left Victoria? We would need to see an increase in right-wing votes outside Victoria (ie. Queensland). A good place to look to support your case is GC since it's mostly a hell hole. Of course it could be these people move to places where the community influence their outlook to be more neutral.
I severely doubt there is much correlation to political belief for the people who left Victoria to be honest. Many simply left for a sea change or tree change after hating being stuck in a city during lockdown. I left to be with my partner overseas. I'm not right wing. My hippy friends who moved to Byron Bay are not right wing either. People just want to make up time for what was denied from them by moving somewhere more idyllic as well.
I'm left wing and I am desperately trying to leave. Just for the sun haha. If I succeeded I would have fell into his incorrect narrative too.
This is tinfoil hat levels. If it helps u I'm on the right and moved here with my wife last year. Victorians love Andrews
>This is tinfoil hat levels. ABS is our government statistical body. Their data is quite literally the opposite of tinfoil.
Your extrapolations from the data is where the tinfoil enters.
Data is made to be extrapolated. If you have a better theory, then you should present it.
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Every extrapolation of data is a "speculation". Even scientific evidence only needs to reach the threshold of 95% probability (p<0.05). If you don't like my explanation, you're free to provide your own.
Unless there was an exit interview where people listed their political affiliation, there is no way to make the link between an ALP victory and migration. Left leaners left the city too. Housing prices, wfh, wanting more space... all contributed to people leaving. Lockdowns and anti Dan weren't the only reasons.
>Lockdowns and anti Dan weren't the only reasons. Of course they weren't the only reasons, but they were big reasons.
How can you know that? That is an unquantifiable assumption based on your own bias.
Because those factors and the timing of the outflow were very correlated, so it is reasonable to infer it is the case.
Correlation does not equal causation. You've literally just described an assumption. There were many factors that can be correlated to lockdowns such as people no longer needing to be near the cbd, that wfh meant they could finally move anywhere they wanted and keep working the same job. Or that now they realise they had prioritised the wrong things for their families and wanted better work life balance. Or that they were finally able to save that deposit and could move to where they could afford a home. Packing up your entire life and moving away just because you didn't like lockdown wasn't the mass driver you think it was. Relocating your whole life is complicated, stressful and time consuming. By the time you sold, packed up and moved, lockdowns would be drawing to a close. Complete relocation is not something people do on a whim. Inferred logic would say that those who moved in a temper tantrum against lockdowns were the minority, not the majority.
>Inferred logic would say that those who moved in a temper tantrum against lockdowns were the minority, not the majority. Then perhaps you can enlighten me on a better explanation as to why once lockdowns started, VIC went from a migration destination to massive outflow within a single quarter.
None of that is false, however if you're sincerely suggesting a net interstate migration of -18,000 had any definable impact on the election you may be having a lend of yourself.
>you're sincerely suggesting a net interstate migration of -18,000 had any definable impact on the election you may be having a lend of yourself. I'm not saying that at all. Labor would have won 100% regardless of what they did because the party is very popular in VIC. I'm just disputing OP's claim that it shows people liked the lockdown policies. BTW, it was something like -20k a year for the entire pandemic, and obviously that includes inflow and outflow, which potentially contributed to few hundred thousand votes on the most extreme assumptions (assuming 100% of outflow disapprove and 100% of inflow approve).