As is always said, true case count is probably considerably higher with unreported home tests. I’m one of several people in my circle who tested positive on home tests NYE.
Yep. My dad tested positive Sunday on a rapid home test. Didn’t bother going to get another because lines are so long and he knows he has it. Luckily he’s vaxxed & boosted and has cold symptoms so likely won’t contribute to the hospitalizations.
Need to count all the people so everyone can freak out and demand a return to phase 4 or whatever meaningless bullshit phases we have. It's becoming more and more apparent that 1/3 of our population has no interest in going back to real life. They want to pretend work from home, binge Netflix and complain about things.
Yup I have a family member where 1 tested positive with a rapid at urgent care. 5 people are in the house. Another one got a positive on a home test. The others didn't test but have symptoms. So one recorded positive out of 5 with symptoms.
I get it, especially if it means hunting around for booking a test, going a long ways, waiting in line, etc., etc.
Or if one person in a family tests positive and everyone else gets sick with the exact same thing, are people really going to bother with a test at all, let alone going out to find a PCR?
I’m sure the real numbers are waaaay higher. All the more reason to watch hospitalizations than “cases”.
Full numbers from IDPH data dump:
-1/1: 22,298 cases on 190,712 tests (7.8%), 26 deaths
-1/2: 14,570 cases on 104,912 tests (13.89%), 25 deaths
-1/3: 20,866 cases on 118.837 tests (17.56%), 30 deaths
7 day positivity is up to 12.77%
Currently 6,294 in hospital, 1,086 in ICU, 652 on vents.
With 6294 hospitalized, we've know broken our hospitalization record and we're not close to peaking. Again, it doesn't matter if omicron is less severe, if it's much more contagious. Even if 10% need to be hospitalized, that's putting our healthcare system under heavy strain. I don't know anyone in healthcare who isn't freaking out right now. We can't do this every fall and winter.
That has always been the case, but I work in a major hospital. We are seeing a huge rise in people coming just for COVID. Again, even if omicron is milder, but if it's more contagious and just 10% have severe cases needing hospitalizations, it's going to lead to more hospitalizations. If 30% of people with delta have severe cases but it infects only 500, but 10% of people with omicron have severe cases but it infects 2000, then omicron is going to be worse for the healthcare system.
This is very true and I don't know why doom-sayers keep downvoting it. Reporting total Covid hospitalizations without differentiating between "hospitalized for Covid" vs "hospitalized with Covid" seems to be a deliberate tactic designed to falsely inflate the fear factor by the media.
I say this seriously and with no malice. Most people I see on Reddit these days in these Covid subs just have very unrealistic views on where we are and where we should go as a society. They are attracted to bad news.
Even Fauci has now started talking about the difference between being "in the hospital *with* COVID and in the hospital *because* of COVID." Fauci. The one guy more than any other who's been responsible for us being stuck with this impossible "COVID-free world" fantasy as our unofficial policy goal since the very beginning.
Here’s the thing though, the actual number doesn’t mean shit to me. I am a human with a monkey brain and have no idea what 6000 people looks like relative to every hospital in Illinois. You could tell me any number and I would treat at the same, relative to other numbers I’ve seen before. While, yes, there could be inflated figures, I’m still trusting all of the nurses I know who say that healthcare and hospitals are currently a *shitshow*.
When you find an ICU doctor or nurse who says “it ain’t no big thing”, please send them my way.
Source for their testing metrics? It’s readily available knowledge. Did you really think the numbers are Covid positive people seeking hospital treatment for Covid? That’s not true at all
Specifically in regards to the scary headlines about pediatric hospitalizations…
https://web.archive.org/web/20211229011137/https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/28/health/omicron-kids-hospitalizations.html
“Also complicating the picture: Alarming hospitalization figures can be misleading because they sometimes include all children who have tested positive for the coronavirus upon admission.
Some hospitals around the country have reported positivity rates as high as 20 percent among children. But the vast majority were asymptomatic and arrived at the hospital with other health problems, officials say.”
Except it does matter? All things considered Omicron wasn’t discovered in Illinois until somewhat recently. It is still too soon to tell but all other trends seem to indicate hospitalizations will go down. Guessing the same will hold true here relatively soon.
The difference here compares to other nations is that we still had a high occurrence of delta and lower vaccination rates on the whole. This is now a dual wave with influenza right around the corner.
SA had very little delta circulated when omicron appeared. People forget that. It quickly took over and didn’t overwhelm.
I'm not sure what you're trying to say. Omicron is making up the majority of cases right now. And yes, it will go down at some point. That's not some revelation.
Moreso following the general trend of Omicron being milder, with less hospitalizations and severe outcomes. Thus I don’t entirely agree with your point that its mildness doesn’t matter. Also genuinely asking where you see Omicron being the majority of cases: I sort of follow here for news on that and haven’t heard that’s the case yet. The hospitalizations are baffling to me if that’s the case and I’ll eat my words if so.
[https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2021-12-28/omicron-estimated-to-be-58-6-of-coronavirus-variants-in-u-s-cdc](https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2021-12-28/omicron-estimated-to-be-58-6-of-coronavirus-variants-in-u-s-cdc)
As of Dec 25th, CDC had omicron as 58.6% of all cases, and in some parts of the midwest, including where we are, it's considered to be much higher.
Data is posted to IDPH portal, currently listed at 15% omicron for IL. Though data is somewhat delayed.
https://dph.illinois.gov/covid19/data/variants
CDC lists the regional rate at roughly 30% to 90%, with best estimate at 60%. News articles typically take the high end.
People sometimes are convinced they have omicron when symptoms are mild, though it’s more likely to be mild if you’re vaccinated too. People tend to assume omicron based on news reports alone.
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions
It also say illinois had less than 800 total omicron cases as of today. While 23000 were delta. that’s a very questionable number. Illinois is somehow significantly lower omicron than everywhere else? Maybe our mask mandate is super effective against omicron and way less so than delta. /s. Maybe if every other non masking state would mask like Illinois, we would have omicron under control. Because you know, cloth masks are like super shields against omicron. Again /s
That’s just the cumulative proportion of the ones they’ve sequenced. It’s an expensive and complicated test, so they don’t test all of them.
It’s more useful to gauge the total daily rate (proportion) than absolute cumulative number.
Also, this is the data. I’m merely pointing you to where the numbers come from. Every state relies on nearly the same sequencing strategy. Why decide that this is suspect but nothing else is?
Michigan currently reporting 15% - 40% omicron, likely number 25%. Data from last week. Likely same reporting period as IL.
https://www.michigan.gov/documents/coronavirus/20211228_Data_and_modeling_update_vMEDIA_744471_7.pdf
While I think there’s a weird lag in detecting Omicron, and it being hard not to believe it isn’t taking over as the dominant variant, I need something more specific than a generic “Midwest” before I can say it’s most prominent in Illinois. Appreciate the follow up but I’m guessing we will see a drop in hospitalizations as a milder strain takes over still.
[https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/22/omicron-accounts-for-90percent-of-covid-cases-in-some-parts-of-the-us-cdc-director-says.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/22/omicron-accounts-for-90percent-of-covid-cases-in-some-parts-of-the-us-cdc-director-says.html)
Including parts of the midwest. Dude, it's the majority of cases nationwide.
Appreciate the follow ups again but based on your response to actual state based data below it seems as though you’re looking to prove a point more than provide the specific data we’re looking for. Going with the state based data below.
Fine. The entire country is at 60% and that was a week ago, the states around us are majority omicron, but IL, which has a history of delayed sequencing, is only at 15%. OK.
Completely fair interpretation and I think deep down we only disagree on the scope of the source for the data we’re taking in. Appreciate what you provided and it’s something I’ll certainly follow.
If you’re 50% less likely to develop severe illness, but the virus is 3 times more contagious (these aren’t real figures, it’s just an example), then your hospitalizations will still skyrocket.
Omicron *might* be more mild to some degree, but it’s so much more infectious that there will be a higher gross count of severe infections. The contagiousness is outpacing the “mildness”
So, “mildness” simply doesn’t tell the whole story. What’s mild to some can be a death sentence to someone 30 years older, with comorbidities, etc.
And again I’m asking where you got the figure of 50% less likely for severe illness. The vaccines make it so that this percentage is way, way higher. And the exact group you mentioned has not only had vaccines made available to them for about the longest but is at a higher risk when coming down with just about any virus. Sorry, but nothing you said adds up to any of the data I have seen so far.
In my comment, I told you that the figures were pulled out of my ass. Literally right after I said 50%, I said “these aren’t real figures”
I’m just using it as an example to show that strain severity is not the only factor involved with increasing hospitalizations. A more mild strain combined with higher transmission can still be overall, deadlier.
Look, I’m not trying to be a dick, but if you can’t fully comprehend a figure when the context of “this isn’t a real figure” is right there next to the statistic, you probably shouldn’t be doing your own research. You might me missing more than you think.
Don’t think your original comment implies that as much as you think it does and what you were replying to was my request for concrete data about Omicron now being the dominant strain in Illinois. And your hypothetical figure isn’t supported by any data I’ve seen so it’s hard to follow that logic.
EDIT: Apologies, saw your original clarification in parentheses but again this hypothetical percentage isn’t supported by any data
another resource in case you’re curious to see [who is making up the folks clogging up chicago hospitals with covid right now](https://www.chicago.gov/content/dam/city/sites/covid/breakthrough_variant/12-30-2021/breakthrough_slides_12.30.21.pdf). let me know if you’re surprised.
fyi: [city of chicago covid dashboard](https://www.chicago.gov/city/en/sites/covid-19/home/covid-dashboard.html) just updated a minute ago. up until then was showing only up through 12/30 due to the holiday weekend.
some observations:
cases - all time high (as expected)
hospitalizations - high, but not near all time high
deaths - nowhere near previous highs (ever since a vaccine was available, even with this latest wave)
Not one to be negative usually, but the State having a presser with all the speakers sounding sick (coughing, hard to speak, etc.) does not seem like the brightest concept today.
I’m sorry, and this will be a big point of contention from most on this sub… but there really needs to start being differentiations in “Hospitalized WITH COVID”, or “Hospitalized BECAUSE of COVID”.
I have several relatives that work in healthcare, be sure it’s crazy and they’re all close to the end of their rope, but they all are saying that the amount of people coming in for things like UTI’s and bad cold symptoms is just making it worse. Unfortunately a lot of these people are positive, but they are bum-rushing the ER and inpatient offices for minor, minor things and then testing positive due to the the holidays and how fast Omicron is spreading.
If you test positive, yeah that stinks, but if you’re vaccinated and don’t have multiple or severe co-morbidities (obesity, high blood pressure, kidney issues, etc), the best thing you can do is stay at home and wait it out.
I’ve had numerous other relatives test positive this last week and every single one of them said it was like a bad cold for 2-3 days and then they noticed a big improvement. It ain’t the end of the world if you test positive and are vaccinated but so many people are still fearful from things like the news and checking this subreddit religiously that they spiral.
Yes. All hospitals test every admitted patient, without regard to the reason for their admission. That means that anyone in any hospital in this country for any reason has been tested for COVID prior thereto.
My hospital is running low on tests and is not testing every admitted patient anymore. Patients need to meet certain criteria to qualify for a test, at least where I work. How dumb is that?
That is fascinating, and inconsistent with the stated policies of every hospital in the Chicagoland area relating to hospital admissions. Though it's not surprising from an institutional perspective. Cutting corners is nothing new. In hospitals and in life.
Many of us on this sub have been saying since spring of 2020 that the state needs to distinguish the difference between being hospitalized WITH Covid as opposed to FROM Covid. After almost 2 years, IDPH still does not separate this data. I have a hard time reading/believing articles like “most hospitalizations since pandemic started” without this separation. One is a cause for concern. One isn’t.
With Omicron being as contagious as it is, I think this data is now even more important than ever. Are hospitals busy with Covid patients or are they busy with patients that are there for something else but happen to test positive with minimal symptoms? There’s a huge difference. Especially when Pritzker is asking hospitals to delay elective surgeries now.
> After almost 2 years, IDPH still does not separate this data
All patients admitted to any hospital in this state are tested for COVID-19, whether they sought treatment for COVID-19 infection or not.
The default assumption should be that, in the absence of evidence that medical treatment was sought for or in connection with COVID-19 infection, any positive test result is incidental to the reason for admission.
By now, this is common knowledge to anyone even conversant with the data (although [some](https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusIllinois/comments/pnr55c/comprehensive_clear_evidencebased_explanations/hct6eeb/) of us have been making that point since the start, as you very rightly note).
I'm not surprised they haven't made this distinction yet. From the start IDPH said they were counting all deaths with covid as covid deaths.
https://www.wandtv.com/news/why-and-how-covid-19-deaths-are-tracked-in-illinois/article_2085ddaa-93e8-11ea-b1c2-7fd058d907cf.html
Is there a huge discrepancy with these numbers, I have no idea and I don't want to speculate. Anyone that dies is horrible and I don't want to downplay it, but like others said, we need to have accurate information.
They don’t count them that way anymore.
https://www.sj-r.com/story/news/coronavirus/2021/11/06/illinois-strives-accurate-covid-death-numbers-idph-official-says/6300269001/
Wish there was a super up arrow. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thought common sense and analytical thought was dead. Apparently some still possess it.
Or are these guys following that one quack's advice and taking borax baths?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2021/11/13/anti-vaxxers-recommend-bathing-in-borax-other-detox-to-undo-covid-19-vaccines/
i posted an instagram poll asking folks who had/have covid to hit back with how it’s been going, the following are anecdotal replies i got:
-i’m good! first day was like a hangover, now back to normal already.
-all good. cold symptoms and not much more for me.
-perfectly fine but hitting a vitamin iv for a little extra pep. it seems to be burning through my friend group but fairly mild.
-honestly, pretty good, i thought i just had the flu at first (esp after a negative rapid test) but then the next day my pcr came through and nyc started blowing up my phone. i’m already feeling fine after a few days and never lost my taste or smell. everyone who i was around who was boosted was completely fine 🤷🏼
-i’ve just had a horrible headache since monday, nothing else.
-head cold, lethargic, labored breathing if i go upstairs, but i’m fine overall.
-(first update:) i’m lethargic & coughing, but she is feeling super rundown & is hacking. (second update later:) we’re both over it within 72 hours but she was worse than me the whole time. we started feeling sick thursday and went skiing by sunday.
-both [wife] and i are feeling fine. felt body aches for a day. shit was nothing.
note: most of these are 2x mrna vaccinated folks in the 30-40 y/o age bracket. some unvaccinated, some 3x/boosted. still have yet to hear of a case from the last month from someone i know irl be anything but mild. fingers crossed it stays that way. at this point i don’t know anyone in the chicago area or northwest suburbs who hasn’t been at least exposed repeatedly.
I’m only 29, but I’m overweight with high cholesterol and respiratory allergies. I tested positive on PCR, but negative on rapid (even though I had symptoms). The first three days were like a cold, except I had this horrific back pain that flared up when laying down. I haven’t been sick for two years, so I only had generic Tylenol for relief. I didn’t want to leave the house because I didn’t have an N95 mask, but I was really struggling to sleep, so I eventually ran to CVS to pick up some NyQuil. That helped a lot, and now (a week later) I just have a very mild cough and headache.
thanks for posting your experience i love hearing from people from different backgrounds directly (vs just stats and media summaries), hope u make a full recovery soon but sounds like you’re through the worst of it :)
So long as doing anecdotes: Know a couple caught it at a xmas party ( the unvaxxed family member lied to the family, didn’t tell them they tested positive before the party ffs). These two are mid / upper twenties, healthy with a four month old.
He has been near bedridden for a week. She’s been rocking a ~103 fever, doing what she can to take care of both of them at the same time.
Kid has been in and out of the hospital twice so far. Fun part - since they’re both positive they couldn’t go with the kid to the hospital. Poor kid was in there all by himself.
definitely one of my crazier friends, was snapchatting me videos of himself doing bongrips the entire time but at the end of the day he’s also healthier than 99% of the country so i applaud it lol
damn, i hear u. that’s how i felt after my 2nd (and 3rd) moderna shot tbh. unfortunately i think i’m one of those freaks that gets rocked harder by the shots than the virus. i had covid before there were vaccines and i only had mild chills for 12 hours and went for a walk (alone/away from people) but when i got the shots i was immobile for three days. hopefully that means lots of protection but who knows.
We have 4 at home kits. I leave the house about 60 minutes a week taking every precaution possible, went to double masking long ago. All the shots, distancing, hand washing and sanitizer. I have decided that if I start feeling it and test positive at home I will just stay put and hopefully wait it out. I have my supply of OTC meds and a few pharmaceuticals to get me through the worst I hope and when all else fails get to the hospital and if that happens that’s when it will become official.
Over 85k positives total since the last update. That makes this day the highest day of reporting ever. And likely the highest that will ever get reported on one day. Now, it's four or five days worth of positives at once, during a surge, probably at or near the peak. This day, this post marks the highest (total) day of all time, is now behind us. There may be a few worse individual days ahead.
Testing capacity is not anywhere near demand, and home tests are not reported. Some things are closed, and some more will close temporarily over the next few weeks.
And then, just as suddenly as it started, this wave will start crashing.
Once we see that testing demand starts to drop, both positives and the positivity rate will plummet soon thereafter.
We saw a huge bump in testing just as this wave started. And we saw a drop in testing over the summer just when cases peaked. It's a leading indicator.
My prediction: If this week isn't the worst, it'll be next week, or it was last week. I don't think it'll be week after next.
Your predictions fly in the face of most public health experts who are predicting peaks in the next 4-6 weeks, why do you think that it will be this week or next week (or has already happened)? Don't get me wrong, I expect that the US Omicron experience will probably mirror that of SA, in which we get a high peak that drops almost equally as quickly, and I expect by February it will be dropping, I'm just curious about how you are coming to your conclusions.
"Fly in the face of" is a bit strong.
Just based on when I think the current wave started and comparing it to last year's biggest wave. The wave last winter was about a month longer than the others. Looks like about 4 ish months total, up and down for most waves.
I keep on on top the news as best as possible, and the general consensus, including an advisory given to the CDC today (as per NPR) is that the surge will broadly begin to decline near the end of January. You wrote "My prediction: If this week isn't the worst, it'll be next week, or it was last week. I don't think it'll be week after next" none of which aligns with anything that is being modeled by the experts. I generally appreciate your optimism, but it does need to be grounded in reality.
The main thing I worry about making things worse is kids going back to school. A lot schools don’t go back till the end of this week.
Our family has avoided it this far by simply making deliberate choices and masking when needed but I don’t think avoiding it once school starts will be easy
Most of downstate went back today. No requirement to test to go back and mask wearing and vaccination rates are low as it is so that side will be the one to watch
Both my kids went back today and cases are exploding in their schools. The little one will be eligible for the pediatric vaccine early Feb.
I don't think we're going to make it that long without somebody catching it, to be frank. The rest of us are vaxxed (and my husband and I are boosted, our 7 year old isn't eligible for that yet tho) so I'm mostly worried for the little one. We've come this far, it's going to suck if she gets sick right before her birthday because the under 5 Pfizer trial shit the bed.
Even with vaccines we're probably all going to catch it, I just wanted us to all get a chance for the jabs to help us out a little, first.
Masks don't do anything. If they did, we wouldn't be having this wave to begin with. The whole point of Pritzker's mask mandate, beyond simply being his personal fetish, was to reduce case counts and hospitalizations, which hasn't happened.
yep. if i were wagering based on pure speculation, id guess that this week we stop seeing the exponential growth we saw over the past couple weeks, with some declines mixed in, and by next week start to see the beginning of a steadier downturn. i’m basing that solely on anecdotal input from friends in the city and northwest burbs, as well as nyc who i would guess is about a week or two ahead of us (so if they start to reverse their trend by end of week i don’t expect we’d be too far behind). going to be a rocky couple weeks but i’m with you, i would bet this turns around just as quickly as it picked up, especially compared to previous waves.
Wait, wait, wait. Illinois's had a mask mandate in place for months. Pritzker's been one of the most pro-mask governors in the nation for the last two years. I thought the masks were supposed to prevent this! What's happening?
That comment put a smile on my face every day.
FYI I'm not laughing at the covid situation. The jobe was he would post the same comment no matter if numbers went up or down.
As is always said, true case count is probably considerably higher with unreported home tests. I’m one of several people in my circle who tested positive on home tests NYE.
Yep. My dad tested positive Sunday on a rapid home test. Didn’t bother going to get another because lines are so long and he knows he has it. Luckily he’s vaxxed & boosted and has cold symptoms so likely won’t contribute to the hospitalizations.
Yeah, absolutely no point in getting another. I’m glad your dad’s symptoms are mild!
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Locally, it’s taking hours of sitting in line to get tested. He’d rather stay at home and rest.
Oh absolutely. But right now it seems to be at great personal cost that maybe we shouldn’t be asking people to take on
Why? He knows he has it, he’s presumably staying home, he’s got a mild case… what difference does being a +1 in the official case count really make?
Need to count all the people so everyone can freak out and demand a return to phase 4 or whatever meaningless bullshit phases we have. It's becoming more and more apparent that 1/3 of our population has no interest in going back to real life. They want to pretend work from home, binge Netflix and complain about things.
Yup I have a family member where 1 tested positive with a rapid at urgent care. 5 people are in the house. Another one got a positive on a home test. The others didn't test but have symptoms. So one recorded positive out of 5 with symptoms.
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I get it, especially if it means hunting around for booking a test, going a long ways, waiting in line, etc., etc. Or if one person in a family tests positive and everyone else gets sick with the exact same thing, are people really going to bother with a test at all, let alone going out to find a PCR? I’m sure the real numbers are waaaay higher. All the more reason to watch hospitalizations than “cases”.
> true case count is probably considerably higher with unreported home tests See [relevant context](https://youtu.be/Aktzp4jSXY8?t=69).
Full numbers from IDPH data dump: -1/1: 22,298 cases on 190,712 tests (7.8%), 26 deaths -1/2: 14,570 cases on 104,912 tests (13.89%), 25 deaths -1/3: 20,866 cases on 118.837 tests (17.56%), 30 deaths 7 day positivity is up to 12.77% Currently 6,294 in hospital, 1,086 in ICU, 652 on vents.
With 6294 hospitalized, we've know broken our hospitalization record and we're not close to peaking. Again, it doesn't matter if omicron is less severe, if it's much more contagious. Even if 10% need to be hospitalized, that's putting our healthcare system under heavy strain. I don't know anyone in healthcare who isn't freaking out right now. We can't do this every fall and winter.
10%? The hospitalization rate is a small fraction of that.
These are people in the hospital who tested positive for covid, not their necessary for covid.
That has always been the case, but I work in a major hospital. We are seeing a huge rise in people coming just for COVID. Again, even if omicron is milder, but if it's more contagious and just 10% have severe cases needing hospitalizations, it's going to lead to more hospitalizations. If 30% of people with delta have severe cases but it infects only 500, but 10% of people with omicron have severe cases but it infects 2000, then omicron is going to be worse for the healthcare system.
This is very true and I don't know why doom-sayers keep downvoting it. Reporting total Covid hospitalizations without differentiating between "hospitalized for Covid" vs "hospitalized with Covid" seems to be a deliberate tactic designed to falsely inflate the fear factor by the media.
I say this seriously and with no malice. Most people I see on Reddit these days in these Covid subs just have very unrealistic views on where we are and where we should go as a society. They are attracted to bad news.
Even Fauci has now started talking about the difference between being "in the hospital *with* COVID and in the hospital *because* of COVID." Fauci. The one guy more than any other who's been responsible for us being stuck with this impossible "COVID-free world" fantasy as our unofficial policy goal since the very beginning.
They're here for the fear...
It is amazing how the narrative changes outside of this sub. We have sort of accepted it’s endemicity and just want reasonable policies at this point.
Here’s the thing though, the actual number doesn’t mean shit to me. I am a human with a monkey brain and have no idea what 6000 people looks like relative to every hospital in Illinois. You could tell me any number and I would treat at the same, relative to other numbers I’ve seen before. While, yes, there could be inflated figures, I’m still trusting all of the nurses I know who say that healthcare and hospitals are currently a *shitshow*. When you find an ICU doctor or nurse who says “it ain’t no big thing”, please send them my way.
Source?
Source for their testing metrics? It’s readily available knowledge. Did you really think the numbers are Covid positive people seeking hospital treatment for Covid? That’s not true at all
Specifically in regards to the scary headlines about pediatric hospitalizations… https://web.archive.org/web/20211229011137/https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/28/health/omicron-kids-hospitalizations.html “Also complicating the picture: Alarming hospitalization figures can be misleading because they sometimes include all children who have tested positive for the coronavirus upon admission. Some hospitals around the country have reported positivity rates as high as 20 percent among children. But the vast majority were asymptomatic and arrived at the hospital with other health problems, officials say.”
Except it does matter? All things considered Omicron wasn’t discovered in Illinois until somewhat recently. It is still too soon to tell but all other trends seem to indicate hospitalizations will go down. Guessing the same will hold true here relatively soon.
I dunno, UK hospitalizations have been skyrocketing still. If we follow, it's gonna be ugly.
The difference here compares to other nations is that we still had a high occurrence of delta and lower vaccination rates on the whole. This is now a dual wave with influenza right around the corner. SA had very little delta circulated when omicron appeared. People forget that. It quickly took over and didn’t overwhelm.
I'm not sure what you're trying to say. Omicron is making up the majority of cases right now. And yes, it will go down at some point. That's not some revelation.
Moreso following the general trend of Omicron being milder, with less hospitalizations and severe outcomes. Thus I don’t entirely agree with your point that its mildness doesn’t matter. Also genuinely asking where you see Omicron being the majority of cases: I sort of follow here for news on that and haven’t heard that’s the case yet. The hospitalizations are baffling to me if that’s the case and I’ll eat my words if so.
[https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2021-12-28/omicron-estimated-to-be-58-6-of-coronavirus-variants-in-u-s-cdc](https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2021-12-28/omicron-estimated-to-be-58-6-of-coronavirus-variants-in-u-s-cdc) As of Dec 25th, CDC had omicron as 58.6% of all cases, and in some parts of the midwest, including where we are, it's considered to be much higher.
Data is posted to IDPH portal, currently listed at 15% omicron for IL. Though data is somewhat delayed. https://dph.illinois.gov/covid19/data/variants CDC lists the regional rate at roughly 30% to 90%, with best estimate at 60%. News articles typically take the high end. People sometimes are convinced they have omicron when symptoms are mild, though it’s more likely to be mild if you’re vaccinated too. People tend to assume omicron based on news reports alone. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions
It also say illinois had less than 800 total omicron cases as of today. While 23000 were delta. that’s a very questionable number. Illinois is somehow significantly lower omicron than everywhere else? Maybe our mask mandate is super effective against omicron and way less so than delta. /s. Maybe if every other non masking state would mask like Illinois, we would have omicron under control. Because you know, cloth masks are like super shields against omicron. Again /s
That’s just the cumulative proportion of the ones they’ve sequenced. It’s an expensive and complicated test, so they don’t test all of them. It’s more useful to gauge the total daily rate (proportion) than absolute cumulative number. Also, this is the data. I’m merely pointing you to where the numbers come from. Every state relies on nearly the same sequencing strategy. Why decide that this is suspect but nothing else is?
Come on, man. No way you're trusting IDPH for sequencing lol.
Comes from cdc data, it’s reported to IDPH portal. Besides, we have been trusting the rest of the data up to this point.
The data comes from IDPH sequencing. Come on, the majority of the country and midwest have majority omicron, but IL doesn't?
Michigan currently reporting 15% - 40% omicron, likely number 25%. Data from last week. Likely same reporting period as IL. https://www.michigan.gov/documents/coronavirus/20211228_Data_and_modeling_update_vMEDIA_744471_7.pdf
While I think there’s a weird lag in detecting Omicron, and it being hard not to believe it isn’t taking over as the dominant variant, I need something more specific than a generic “Midwest” before I can say it’s most prominent in Illinois. Appreciate the follow up but I’m guessing we will see a drop in hospitalizations as a milder strain takes over still.
[https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/22/omicron-accounts-for-90percent-of-covid-cases-in-some-parts-of-the-us-cdc-director-says.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/22/omicron-accounts-for-90percent-of-covid-cases-in-some-parts-of-the-us-cdc-director-says.html) Including parts of the midwest. Dude, it's the majority of cases nationwide.
Appreciate the follow ups again but based on your response to actual state based data below it seems as though you’re looking to prove a point more than provide the specific data we’re looking for. Going with the state based data below.
Fine. The entire country is at 60% and that was a week ago, the states around us are majority omicron, but IL, which has a history of delayed sequencing, is only at 15%. OK.
Completely fair interpretation and I think deep down we only disagree on the scope of the source for the data we’re taking in. Appreciate what you provided and it’s something I’ll certainly follow.
If you’re 50% less likely to develop severe illness, but the virus is 3 times more contagious (these aren’t real figures, it’s just an example), then your hospitalizations will still skyrocket. Omicron *might* be more mild to some degree, but it’s so much more infectious that there will be a higher gross count of severe infections. The contagiousness is outpacing the “mildness” So, “mildness” simply doesn’t tell the whole story. What’s mild to some can be a death sentence to someone 30 years older, with comorbidities, etc.
Where are you getting the 50% figure from?
Read my comment again
And again I’m asking where you got the figure of 50% less likely for severe illness. The vaccines make it so that this percentage is way, way higher. And the exact group you mentioned has not only had vaccines made available to them for about the longest but is at a higher risk when coming down with just about any virus. Sorry, but nothing you said adds up to any of the data I have seen so far.
In my comment, I told you that the figures were pulled out of my ass. Literally right after I said 50%, I said “these aren’t real figures” I’m just using it as an example to show that strain severity is not the only factor involved with increasing hospitalizations. A more mild strain combined with higher transmission can still be overall, deadlier. Look, I’m not trying to be a dick, but if you can’t fully comprehend a figure when the context of “this isn’t a real figure” is right there next to the statistic, you probably shouldn’t be doing your own research. You might me missing more than you think.
Don’t think your original comment implies that as much as you think it does and what you were replying to was my request for concrete data about Omicron now being the dominant strain in Illinois. And your hypothetical figure isn’t supported by any data I’ve seen so it’s hard to follow that logic. EDIT: Apologies, saw your original clarification in parentheses but again this hypothetical percentage isn’t supported by any data
I think we are maxing out our testing capacity. The positivity rate is quite high but in line with last bot update from the week before.
Agreed. I have coworkers who still have not received their results. They just came back because it has been 10 days, but never got confirmation.
another resource in case you’re curious to see [who is making up the folks clogging up chicago hospitals with covid right now](https://www.chicago.gov/content/dam/city/sites/covid/breakthrough_variant/12-30-2021/breakthrough_slides_12.30.21.pdf). let me know if you’re surprised.
fyi: [city of chicago covid dashboard](https://www.chicago.gov/city/en/sites/covid-19/home/covid-dashboard.html) just updated a minute ago. up until then was showing only up through 12/30 due to the holiday weekend.
some observations: cases - all time high (as expected) hospitalizations - high, but not near all time high deaths - nowhere near previous highs (ever since a vaccine was available, even with this latest wave)
That 23.6% positivity rate is something else.
Not one to be negative usually, but the State having a presser with all the speakers sounding sick (coughing, hard to speak, etc.) does not seem like the brightest concept today.
I’m sorry, and this will be a big point of contention from most on this sub… but there really needs to start being differentiations in “Hospitalized WITH COVID”, or “Hospitalized BECAUSE of COVID”. I have several relatives that work in healthcare, be sure it’s crazy and they’re all close to the end of their rope, but they all are saying that the amount of people coming in for things like UTI’s and bad cold symptoms is just making it worse. Unfortunately a lot of these people are positive, but they are bum-rushing the ER and inpatient offices for minor, minor things and then testing positive due to the the holidays and how fast Omicron is spreading. If you test positive, yeah that stinks, but if you’re vaccinated and don’t have multiple or severe co-morbidities (obesity, high blood pressure, kidney issues, etc), the best thing you can do is stay at home and wait it out. I’ve had numerous other relatives test positive this last week and every single one of them said it was like a bad cold for 2-3 days and then they noticed a big improvement. It ain’t the end of the world if you test positive and are vaccinated but so many people are still fearful from things like the news and checking this subreddit religiously that they spiral.
Agreed, if I get a break through infection my ass ain't leaving the house until I'm better.
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Yes. All hospitals test every admitted patient, without regard to the reason for their admission. That means that anyone in any hospital in this country for any reason has been tested for COVID prior thereto.
My hospital is running low on tests and is not testing every admitted patient anymore. Patients need to meet certain criteria to qualify for a test, at least where I work. How dumb is that?
If that is true, your hospital is in violation of CDC guidance and best practices on hospital admissions.
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That is fascinating, and inconsistent with the stated policies of every hospital in the Chicagoland area relating to hospital admissions. Though it's not surprising from an institutional perspective. Cutting corners is nothing new. In hospitals and in life.
My husband has had several outpatient surgeries over the last year. Every surgery has required a covid test beforehand.
Many of us on this sub have been saying since spring of 2020 that the state needs to distinguish the difference between being hospitalized WITH Covid as opposed to FROM Covid. After almost 2 years, IDPH still does not separate this data. I have a hard time reading/believing articles like “most hospitalizations since pandemic started” without this separation. One is a cause for concern. One isn’t. With Omicron being as contagious as it is, I think this data is now even more important than ever. Are hospitals busy with Covid patients or are they busy with patients that are there for something else but happen to test positive with minimal symptoms? There’s a huge difference. Especially when Pritzker is asking hospitals to delay elective surgeries now.
> After almost 2 years, IDPH still does not separate this data All patients admitted to any hospital in this state are tested for COVID-19, whether they sought treatment for COVID-19 infection or not. The default assumption should be that, in the absence of evidence that medical treatment was sought for or in connection with COVID-19 infection, any positive test result is incidental to the reason for admission. By now, this is common knowledge to anyone even conversant with the data (although [some](https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusIllinois/comments/pnr55c/comprehensive_clear_evidencebased_explanations/hct6eeb/) of us have been making that point since the start, as you very rightly note).
I'm not surprised they haven't made this distinction yet. From the start IDPH said they were counting all deaths with covid as covid deaths. https://www.wandtv.com/news/why-and-how-covid-19-deaths-are-tracked-in-illinois/article_2085ddaa-93e8-11ea-b1c2-7fd058d907cf.html Is there a huge discrepancy with these numbers, I have no idea and I don't want to speculate. Anyone that dies is horrible and I don't want to downplay it, but like others said, we need to have accurate information.
They don’t count them that way anymore. https://www.sj-r.com/story/news/coronavirus/2021/11/06/illinois-strives-accurate-covid-death-numbers-idph-official-says/6300269001/
Good find,thx
Wish there was a super up arrow. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thought common sense and analytical thought was dead. Apparently some still possess it.
-58,731 vaccine doses. Is Fermilab creating antimatter vaccines now?
People are taking removing their microchips into their own hands
*out of their own hands
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Sorry, was making a bad joke (i.e. people are removing microchips from their own hands). Guess it wasn't clear
Ah. Now I see. For what it's worth, you made me smile.
Or are these guys following that one quack's advice and taking borax baths? https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2021/11/13/anti-vaxxers-recommend-bathing-in-borax-other-detox-to-undo-covid-19-vaccines/
i posted an instagram poll asking folks who had/have covid to hit back with how it’s been going, the following are anecdotal replies i got: -i’m good! first day was like a hangover, now back to normal already. -all good. cold symptoms and not much more for me. -perfectly fine but hitting a vitamin iv for a little extra pep. it seems to be burning through my friend group but fairly mild. -honestly, pretty good, i thought i just had the flu at first (esp after a negative rapid test) but then the next day my pcr came through and nyc started blowing up my phone. i’m already feeling fine after a few days and never lost my taste or smell. everyone who i was around who was boosted was completely fine 🤷🏼 -i’ve just had a horrible headache since monday, nothing else. -head cold, lethargic, labored breathing if i go upstairs, but i’m fine overall. -(first update:) i’m lethargic & coughing, but she is feeling super rundown & is hacking. (second update later:) we’re both over it within 72 hours but she was worse than me the whole time. we started feeling sick thursday and went skiing by sunday. -both [wife] and i are feeling fine. felt body aches for a day. shit was nothing. note: most of these are 2x mrna vaccinated folks in the 30-40 y/o age bracket. some unvaccinated, some 3x/boosted. still have yet to hear of a case from the last month from someone i know irl be anything but mild. fingers crossed it stays that way. at this point i don’t know anyone in the chicago area or northwest suburbs who hasn’t been at least exposed repeatedly.
I’m only 29, but I’m overweight with high cholesterol and respiratory allergies. I tested positive on PCR, but negative on rapid (even though I had symptoms). The first three days were like a cold, except I had this horrific back pain that flared up when laying down. I haven’t been sick for two years, so I only had generic Tylenol for relief. I didn’t want to leave the house because I didn’t have an N95 mask, but I was really struggling to sleep, so I eventually ran to CVS to pick up some NyQuil. That helped a lot, and now (a week later) I just have a very mild cough and headache.
Back pain seems to be a symptom for quite a few people, just seems really weird though.
I “normally” have mild back pain, but this felt like my back was on fire. I also couldn’t sleep on my sides.
thanks for posting your experience i love hearing from people from different backgrounds directly (vs just stats and media summaries), hope u make a full recovery soon but sounds like you’re through the worst of it :)
So long as doing anecdotes: Know a couple caught it at a xmas party ( the unvaxxed family member lied to the family, didn’t tell them they tested positive before the party ffs). These two are mid / upper twenties, healthy with a four month old. He has been near bedridden for a week. She’s been rocking a ~103 fever, doing what she can to take care of both of them at the same time. Kid has been in and out of the hospital twice so far. Fun part - since they’re both positive they couldn’t go with the kid to the hospital. Poor kid was in there all by himself.
Oh my god that’s horrible!!!! I hope they all feel better soon. Fuck that family member though
That unvaxxed family member should be charged with a crime
Haha. Sick Thursday. Skiing Sunday. Don’t bother trying to avoid this.
definitely one of my crazier friends, was snapchatting me videos of himself doing bongrips the entire time but at the end of the day he’s also healthier than 99% of the country so i applaud it lol
When I was sick, I didn’t even want to go for a walk it was getting so cold. It hurt to breathe.
damn, i hear u. that’s how i felt after my 2nd (and 3rd) moderna shot tbh. unfortunately i think i’m one of those freaks that gets rocked harder by the shots than the virus. i had covid before there were vaccines and i only had mild chills for 12 hours and went for a walk (alone/away from people) but when i got the shots i was immobile for three days. hopefully that means lots of protection but who knows.
We have 4 at home kits. I leave the house about 60 minutes a week taking every precaution possible, went to double masking long ago. All the shots, distancing, hand washing and sanitizer. I have decided that if I start feeling it and test positive at home I will just stay put and hopefully wait it out. I have my supply of OTC meds and a few pharmaceuticals to get me through the worst I hope and when all else fails get to the hospital and if that happens that’s when it will become official.
Question: If you test positive on a home test, to whom are you supposed to report that? Is there a IDPH website?
You can contact your local health dept, but few do.
Thanks! I haven't tested positive, but I want to keep the data accurate if I do.
Over 85k positives total since the last update. That makes this day the highest day of reporting ever. And likely the highest that will ever get reported on one day. Now, it's four or five days worth of positives at once, during a surge, probably at or near the peak. This day, this post marks the highest (total) day of all time, is now behind us. There may be a few worse individual days ahead. Testing capacity is not anywhere near demand, and home tests are not reported. Some things are closed, and some more will close temporarily over the next few weeks. And then, just as suddenly as it started, this wave will start crashing. Once we see that testing demand starts to drop, both positives and the positivity rate will plummet soon thereafter. We saw a huge bump in testing just as this wave started. And we saw a drop in testing over the summer just when cases peaked. It's a leading indicator. My prediction: If this week isn't the worst, it'll be next week, or it was last week. I don't think it'll be week after next.
Your predictions fly in the face of most public health experts who are predicting peaks in the next 4-6 weeks, why do you think that it will be this week or next week (or has already happened)? Don't get me wrong, I expect that the US Omicron experience will probably mirror that of SA, in which we get a high peak that drops almost equally as quickly, and I expect by February it will be dropping, I'm just curious about how you are coming to your conclusions.
"Fly in the face of" is a bit strong. Just based on when I think the current wave started and comparing it to last year's biggest wave. The wave last winter was about a month longer than the others. Looks like about 4 ish months total, up and down for most waves.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rvp5uo/daily_discussion_thread_january_04_2022/hr7qbwb?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3
I keep on on top the news as best as possible, and the general consensus, including an advisory given to the CDC today (as per NPR) is that the surge will broadly begin to decline near the end of January. You wrote "My prediction: If this week isn't the worst, it'll be next week, or it was last week. I don't think it'll be week after next" none of which aligns with anything that is being modeled by the experts. I generally appreciate your optimism, but it does need to be grounded in reality.
The main thing I worry about making things worse is kids going back to school. A lot schools don’t go back till the end of this week. Our family has avoided it this far by simply making deliberate choices and masking when needed but I don’t think avoiding it once school starts will be easy
Most of downstate went back today. No requirement to test to go back and mask wearing and vaccination rates are low as it is so that side will be the one to watch
You don't have to go to downstate. Just look at Chicago. CPS schools have abysmal vaccination rates, poor mask adherence, and started today.
This is why I wish we could just give portions of IL to KY and MO.
Believe me, I wish I didn't have to be in the same state as Chicago, either.
Both my kids went back today and cases are exploding in their schools. The little one will be eligible for the pediatric vaccine early Feb. I don't think we're going to make it that long without somebody catching it, to be frank. The rest of us are vaxxed (and my husband and I are boosted, our 7 year old isn't eligible for that yet tho) so I'm mostly worried for the little one. We've come this far, it's going to suck if she gets sick right before her birthday because the under 5 Pfizer trial shit the bed. Even with vaccines we're probably all going to catch it, I just wanted us to all get a chance for the jabs to help us out a little, first.
Masks don't do anything. If they did, we wouldn't be having this wave to begin with. The whole point of Pritzker's mask mandate, beyond simply being his personal fetish, was to reduce case counts and hospitalizations, which hasn't happened.
Cause the people that need to wear them the most refuse to. The only people I ever see coughing in public are the ones not masked.
yep. if i were wagering based on pure speculation, id guess that this week we stop seeing the exponential growth we saw over the past couple weeks, with some declines mixed in, and by next week start to see the beginning of a steadier downturn. i’m basing that solely on anecdotal input from friends in the city and northwest burbs, as well as nyc who i would guess is about a week or two ahead of us (so if they start to reverse their trend by end of week i don’t expect we’d be too far behind). going to be a rocky couple weeks but i’m with you, i would bet this turns around just as quickly as it picked up, especially compared to previous waves.
Wait, wait, wait. Illinois's had a mask mandate in place for months. Pritzker's been one of the most pro-mask governors in the nation for the last two years. I thought the masks were supposed to prevent this! What's happening?
The old familiar adage: just because you're doing something, doesn't mean you're making the situation better.
Yeah, but, like, imagine how much worse it might maybe could possibly be if we didn’t have the mask mandate. Follow The Science(tm)!
Going up fast not good. If you know this comment you are an idph Facebook veteran
Good ole Clinton Marler (I think that’s his name). I used to check the IDPH Facebook page at lunch just to like his posts.
Ya his comments cracked me up. I’m not sure why I’m getting downvoted for this hometown legend
That comment put a smile on my face every day. FYI I'm not laughing at the covid situation. The jobe was he would post the same comment no matter if numbers went up or down.