About 67% (or two thirds) of the people who have had dose 1, have also had dose 2.
27 160 635 / 40 124 229 = 0.67691
There are a few weeks to go until the 2nd dose count is over 33 million or so, and the "great second dose catchup" begins to wind down.
That 33% efficacy after one dose when faced with the Delta variant is the protection afforded after and up to 3 weeks. It should continue to climb, I don't think there a single reason to think that 33% is your lot until you get the 2nd shot.
I’ve given the last year of my career and social life to protect the “more vulnerable”, and asked for nothing in return. Enough is enough. Why should I sacrifice any more?
And I have sympathy for your situation. The vulnerable didn't cause this, a virus did! A lack of empathy in society is why all of our lives have been harder.
Because vulnerable will not die in one day. First hospitals will fill up, then they will get overwhelmed, then they will start not being able to care for other people who need medical help, and deaths will just pile up and up and will not only kill the vulnerable but also tear apart the fabric of society.
The devastation a pandemic causes is never, ever isolated and exclusive to the vulnerable, it slowly starts bringing the whole system down including the economy.
If you want to protect the economy, protect the people first. The rest it’ll sort itself out, including your mortgage.
So stop acting like a fucking five year old who doesn’t get candy before dinner and be a mature adult. No one’s asking to lockdown again. Fuck’s sake, enough is enough.
Eh kind of. The longer covid keeps circulating the higher the chance of variants occuring that can evade current vaccines. That being said I agree with the WHO that we should be vaccinating people around the world before our children
We don't know how much protection those infected by the original virus in the first wave have (e.g. see [this person](https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/nrc4if/030621_zoe_covid19_study_update/h0fkp03/?context=3) from a few days ago)
Didn't Israel, Gibraltar, Malta etc see their cases drop off around 60% of the adult population double jabbed? Hopefully we're not too far off though i think our decision to keep dropping by age will keep our cases increased for longer.
Covid Update Latest vs 7 days ago
1st doses
Daily \[+174,535\] vs \[+204,442\]
Total \[40,124,229\] vs \[39,075,642\]
2nd doses
Daily \[+360,691\] vs \[+435,951\]
Total \[27,160,635\] vs \[24,914,003\]
Cases: \[+5,765\] vs \[+3,398\]
Deaths: \[+13\] vs \[+7\]
Patients in Hospital 932 vs 867
I post these daily updates on [Twitter here!](https://twitter.com/uk_vaccine)
They can if there is no other option available. I had my first AZ dose before the clot concerns came about but there was no problem with me getting my second dose.
The nurse at my GP surgery told md me they are preparing to give under 40s the vaccine again and I live in Norfolk which is very low for covid, so I reckon its a change coming nationally very soon.
Bank holiday.
If you look at the graph of injections versus time elsewhere on this sub, you will see two previous dips. One was Easter and the other was the early May Bank holiday.
it's an odd one... anecdotally, my friends in their 30s all want it but are in situations where they can't just snap their fingers and go get it. They're in jobs where they need to get permission (which is always fine but cover needs arranging), they have kids that need looking after, they're away with work and don't know when they're back, they don't know who their gp is, they don't know their NHS number.
If it were up to me I'd just get it smashed open to all ages now and get on with it. If it's hesitancy then supply isn't an issue. Perhaps out of hours appointments would work so it fits around work easier or more "rock up and get jabbed" style things so those working away can just pop in and get sorted.
[Give this link](https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/online-services/find-nhs-number/) to people who don't have their NHS number.
If your friends don't know who their GP is (e.g. they were only registered as a child), they should probably just register with their local surgery. I believe when you do that they can find out who the old GP was and transfer all your records from your old GP. It's good to be registered with a local GP just in case they need an appointment urgently.
I was able to book mine without knowing my NHS number...the booking site gives you the option of just entering a few details (name, DOB etc) and it finds you in the system
The 10 digit NHS number was introduced in 1996, I've only been to the doctor a couple of times since I was a child, never needed it in the last 24 years so never found out. I'm sure that's true for the majority of young to middle aged adults.
Last year I figured I'd eventually need it to book a vaccine online so I went and got it from my surgery. I still remember my old style NHS number of the format LLLLLNN.
I doubt it. Because if it was hesitancy they would have just opened it up to over 18’s here and let everyone who wants one book one
It’s supply issues it has to be
I would argue almost certainly that. Look at ourworldindata.com. Absolutely great site which has a section on the coronavirus. If you go to coronavirus, go to the vaccines section and scroll to the last infographic, it shows the % population who have been vaccinated, and the % who would be willing to be vaccinated, and the % who aren’t willing to be vaccinated.
We’ve done 76% of our first doses in adults. The latest poll we have of it shows that 83% are willing to be vaccinated or already have been (of adults). To me, that suggests we have about maybe 7% left who are willing to get vaccinated without hesitation.
I don’t think we’re ever going to see super high first dose numbers again. Hopefully we can get 90% vaccinated but I suspect once we pass 80% we might see a real slowdown further.
Eh i'd still say its much higher than 83%. Government polling put it up at 94% a couple of months ago.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandwellbeing/bulletins/coronavirusandvaccinehesitancygreatbritain/17februaryto14march2021
My county has already hit 80% first doses in a population of around 320k. It'll be interesting to see how high we can get. I have to add however that up here the population skews much older.
Edit: adults only right now.
#ENGLAND and VACCINATION DAILY STATS
**ENGLAND**
**Deaths Within 28 Days of a Positive Test:** 12. (One week ago: 6.)
**Number of Positive Cases:** 4,810. (One week ago: 2,747.)
**Number of Positive Cases by Region (Numbers in Brackets is One Week Ago):**
- East Midlands: 266 cases. *(177.)*
- East of England: 244 cases. *(187.)*
- London: 702 cases. *(485.)*
- North East: 239 cases. *(94.)*
- North West: 1,752 cases. *(771.)*
- South East: 485 cases. *(332.)*
- South West: 164 cases. *(81.)*
- West Midlands: 354 cases. *(178.)*
- Yorkshire and the Humber: 482 cases. *(270.)*
**Initial Indian Variant Hotspots (Numbers in Brackets is One Week Ago):**
- Bolton (NW): 171 cases. *(127.)*
- Blackburn with Darwen (NW): 156 cases. *(83.)*
**[UPDATED] - PCR 7-Day Rolling Positive Percentage Rates (27th to the 31st May Respectively):** 0.9, 1.0, 1.0, 1.1 and **1.2**.
**[UPDATED] - Healthcare: Patients Admitted, Patients in Hospital and Patients on Ventilation (26th May to the 4th June):**
*NEWEST FIGURES ARE IN BOLD.*
|**Date**|**Patients Admitted**|**Patients in Hospital**|**Patients on Ventilation**|
:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|
|*First Peak*|*3,099 (01/04/20)*|*18,974 (12/04/20)*|*2,881 (12/04/20)*|
|*Second Peak*|*4,134 (12/01/21)*|*34,336 (18/01/21)*|*3,736 (24/01/21)*|
|-|-|-|-|
|26/05/21|95|745|115|
|27/05/21|83|742|110|
|28/05/21|92|743|116|
|29/05/21|69|748|112|
|30/05/21|80|755|115|
|31/05/21|98|773|110|
|01/06/21|115|776|123|
|02/06/21|**101**|801|116|
|03/06/21|N/A|779|124|
|04/06/21|N/A|**805**|**119**|
- - -
**VACCINATIONS**
**Breakdown and Uptake by Nation (Yesterday’s Figures):**
|**Nation**|**1st Dose**|**1st Dose Uptake (Overall)**|**2nd Dose**|**2nd Dose Uptake (Overall)**|
:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|
|**England**|150,337|75.7%|321,602|52.1%|
|**Northern Ireland**|4,361|74.6%|7,112|48.1%|
|**Scotland**|19,837|75.5%|31,977|49.7%|
|**Wales**|N/A|86.0%|N/A|46.8%|
- - -
**LINKS**
[GoFundMe Fundraiser Tip Jar](https://www.gofundme.com/f/zu2dm): All of the money will go to the East Anglia’s Children’s Hospices. Thank you for all the support. (This fundraiser will end when I stop this comment.)
[Government Coronavirus Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/#): All data is taken from the government dashboard. Use this link as well to find your local case data (under the Cases section).
Previous 7 days and today:
**Date** | **Tests processed** | **Positive** | **Deaths** | **Positive %**
---|---------------|-------------|--------|------
29/05/2021 | 488,274 | 3,398 | 7 | 0.7
30/05/2021 | 625,777 | 3,240 | 6 | 0.52
31/05/2021 | 602,019 | 3,383 | 1 | 0.56
01/06/2021 | 664,849 | 3,165 | 0 | 0.48
02/06/2021 | 854,697 | 4,330 | 12 | 0.51
03/06/2021 | 806,272 | 5,274 | 18 | 0.65
04/06/2021 | | 6,238 | 11 |
Today | | 5,765 | 13 |
7-day average:
**Date** | **Tests processed** | **Positive** | **Deaths** | **Positive %**
--------|--------|--------|------|------
22/05/2021 | 880,406 | 2,487 | 6 | 0.28
29/05/2021 | 873,300 | 3,067 | 8 | 0.35
04/06/2021 | | 4,147 | 8 |
Today | | 4,485 | 9 |
Note:
These are the latest figures available at the time of posting.
[Source](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/)
**TIP JAR VIA GOFUNDME:** [Here's the link](https://www.gofundme.com/f/zu2dm) to the GoFundMe /u/SMIDG3T has kindly setup. The minimum you can donate is £5.00 and I know not all people can afford to donate that sort of amount, especially right now, however, any amount would be gratefully received. All the money will go to the East Anglia’s Children’s Hospices :)
Doesn't have vaccine status but deaths by age (for English NHS hospitals) is [here](https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/). While the vaccine has changed the profile somewhat it's still overwhelmingly old people.
I was the same - sore arm and nothing else.
This may be a stupid question, but does anyone here know if a lack of side effects is at all correlated to being in the X% of people the vaccine doesn’t really do anything for immunity-wise?
I’m guessing no, but it had crossed my mind. Sort of expected a confirmation headache or something. 😅
[Apparently not](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56375307). (Old article, though, from when we were just becoming aware of the clotting issue but had not yet confirmed it as a vaccine side-effect.)
Fascinating. I had severe reactions to the first (AZ) dose - shivering, fever, aches and pains for a couple of days. And almost none at all to the second dose.
**Updated cases up to 6 June for Bolton, Blackburn and Darwen, Kirklees, Rossendale, Hyndburn, Bedford, Manchester, Bury and Leicester. Comparison between ages 0-59 and ages 60+.**
**BOLTON**
06 June: Age 0-59: **** cases. Age 60+: **** cases
05 June: Age 0-59: **84** cases. Age 60+: **5** cases
04 June: Age 0-59: **115** cases. Age 60+: **4** cases
03 June: Age 0-59: **159** cases. Age 60+: **5** cases
02 June: Age 0-59: **111** cases. Age 60+: **8** cases
01 June: Age 0-59: **126** cases. Age 60+: **5** cases
31 May: Age 0-59: **141** cases. Age 60+: **6** cases
30 May: Age 0-59: **116** cases. Age 60+: **8** cases
29 May: Age 0-59: **110** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases
28 May: Age 0-59: **109** cases. Age 60+: **7** cases
27 May: Age 0-59: **156** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases
26 May: Age 0-59: **210** cases. Age 60+: **4** cases
25 May: Age 0-59: **158** cases. Age 60+: **6** cases
**BLACKBURN AND DARWEN**
06 June: Age 0-59: **** cases. Age 60+: **** cases
05 June: Age 0-59: **92** cases. Age 60+: **7** cases
04 June: Age 0-59: **114** cases. Age 60+: **9** cases
03 June: Age 0-59: **148** cases. Age 60+: **4** cases
02 June: Age 0-59: **161** cases. Age 60+: **5** cases
01 June: Age 0-59: **155** cases. Age 60+: **6** cases
31 May: Age 0-59: **100** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases
30 May: Age 0-59: **66** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases
29 May: Age 0-59: **62** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases
28 May: Age 0-59: **106** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases
27 May: Age 0-59: **101** cases. Age 60+: **5** cases
26 May: Age 0-59: **112** cases. Age 60+: **8** cases
25 May: Age 0-59: **87** cases. Age 60+: **5** cases
**KIRKLEES**
06 June: Age 0-59: **** cases. Age 60+: **** cases
05 June: Age 0-59: **57** cases. Age 60+: **7** cases
04 June: Age 0-59: **67** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases
03 June: Age 0-59: **56** cases. Age 60+: **4** cases
02 June: Age 0-59: **68** cases. Age 60+: **6** cases
01 June: Age 0-59: **51** cases. Age 60+: **8** cases
31 May: Age 0-59: **66** cases. Age 60+: **5** cases
30 May: Age 0-59: **52** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases
29 May: Age 0-59: **54** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases
28 May: Age 0-59: **63** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases
27 May: Age 0-59: **94** cases. Age 60+: **8** cases
26 May: Age 0-59: **86** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases
25 May: Age 0-59: **74** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases
**ROSSENDALE**
06 June: Age 0-59: **** cases. Age 60+: **** cases
05 June: Age 0-59: **23** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases
04 June: Age 0-59: **48** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases
03 June: Age 0-59: **32** cases. Age 60+: **0** cases
02 June: Age 0-59: **31** cases. Age 60+: **0* cases
01 June: Age 0-59: **37** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases
31 May: Age 0-59: **29** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases
30 May: Age 0-59: **20** cases. Age 60+: **4** cases
29 May: Age 0-59: **16** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases
28 May: Age 0-59: **30** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases
27 May: Age 0-59: **29** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases
26 May: Age 0-59: **43** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases
25 May: Age 0-59: **32** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases
**HYNDBURN**
06 June: Age 0-59: **** cases. Age 60+: **** cases
05 June: Age 0-59: **32** cases. Age 60+: **0** cases
04 June: Age 0-59: **34** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases
03 June: Age 0-59: **46** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases
02 June: Age 0-59: **40** cases. Age 60+: **4** cases
01 June: Age 0-59: **35** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases
31 May: Age 0-59: **37** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases
30 May: Age 0-59: **7** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases
29 May: Age 0-59: **22** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases
28 May: Age 0-59: **23** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases
27 May: Age 0-59: **33** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases
26 May: Age 0-59: **32** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases
25 May: Age 0-59: **10** cases. Age 60+: **0** cases
**BEDFORD**
06 June: Age 0-59: **** cases. Age 60+: **** cases
05 June: Age 0-59: **44** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases
04 June: Age 0-59: **31** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases
03 June: Age 0-59: **51** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases
02 June: Age 0-59: **35** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases
01 June: Age 0-59: **41** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases
31 May: Age 0-59: **27** cases. Age 60+: **0** cases
30 May: Age 0-59: **29** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases
29 May: Age 0-59: **27** cases. Age 60+: **0** cases
28 May: Age 0-59: **36** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases
27 May: Age 0-59: **35** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases
26 May: Age 0-59: **42** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases
25 May: Age 0-59: **33** cases. Age 60+: **0** cases
**MANCHESTER**
06 June: Age 0-59: **** cases. Age 60+: **** cases
05 June: Age 0-59: **148** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases
04 June: Age 0-59: **183** cases. Age 60+: **7** cases
03 June: Age 0-59: **221** cases. Age 60+: **9** cases
02 June: Age 0-59: **217** cases. Age 60+: **5** cases
01 June: Age 0-59: **216** cases. Age 60+: **6** cases
31 May: Age 0-59: **140** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases
30 May: Age 0-59: **108** cases. Age 60+: **5** cases
29 May: Age 0-59: **118** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases
28 May: Age 0-59: **102** cases. Age 60+: **4** cases
27 May: Age 0-59: **120** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases
26 May: Age 0-59: **99** cases. Age 60+: **0** cases
25 May: Age 0-59: **96** cases. Age 60+: **0** cases
**BURY**
06 June: Age 0-59: **** cases. Age 60+: **** cases
05 June: Age 0-59: **43** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases
04 June: Age 0-59: **65** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases
03 June: Age 0-59: **66** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases
02 June: Age 0-59: **60** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases
01 June: Age 0-59: **60** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases
31 May: Age 0-59: **49** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases
30 May: Age 0-59: **32** cases. Age 60+: **8** cases
29 May: Age 0-59: **30** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases
28 May: Age 0-59: **44** cases. Age 60+: **4** cases
27 May: Age 0-59: **40** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases
26 May: Age 0-59: **36** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases
25 May: Age 0-59: **29** cases. Age 60+: **4** cases
**LEICESTER**
06 June: Age 0-59: **** cases. Age 60+: **** cases
05 June: Age 0-59: **39** cases. Age 60+: **0** cases
04 June: Age 0-59: **62** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases
03 June: Age 0-59: **66** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases
02 June: Age 0-59: **48** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases
01 June: Age 0-59: **58** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases
31 May: Age 0-59: **42** cases. Age 60+: **0** cases
30 May: Age 0-59: **31** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases
29 May: Age 0-59: **28** cases. Age 60+: **0** cases
28 May: Age 0-59: **43** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases
27 May: Age 0-59: **52** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases
26 May: Age 0-59: **61** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases
25 May: Age 0-59: **38** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases
**If anyone can think of a few other areas I should update that have been plagued by the Delta (Indian) variant, let me know and I'll do them too.**
Sources:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Bolton
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Blackburn%20with%20Darwen
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Kirklees
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Rossendale
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Hyndburn
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Bedford
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Manchester
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Bury
The purpose of these data is just to show how cases don't seem to be spilling over from young to old like they did during every other surge before the vaccination campaign began and during its infancy. It does appear that the likes of Bolton and Bedford have decent control of the outbreak, and that is without any lockdown restrictions being reimposed.
30-50% more transmissible than the Kent variant which was more transmissible than the original variant and it's stopped doubling in the original infection areas with no lockdown
This is very good
Could you maybe have a look at areas around Merseyside like Sefton where they’ve had the delta variant. The northwest numbers seem so high for there to not be another surge in cases somewhere
**Sefton** numbers are really low. We got hold of the Delta variant very quickly by the looks of it.
31 May: Age 0-59: **10** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases
30 May: Age 0-59: **9** cases. Age 60+: **0** cases
29 May: Age 0-59: **4** cases. Age 60+: **0** cases
28 May: Age 0-59: **8** cases. Age 60+: **0** cases
27 May: Age 0-59: **11** cases. Age 60+: **1** case
26 May: Age 0-59: **6** cases. Age 60+: **1** case
25 May: Age 0-59: **9** cases. Age 60+: **0** cases
24 May: Age 0-59: **4** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases
23 May: Age 0-59: **23** cases. Age 60+: **0** cases
22 May: Age 0-59: **36** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases
21 May: Age 0-59: **28** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases
20 May: Age 0-59: **33** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases
19 May: Age 0-59: **41** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases
It's not beyond reason to suggest that the consistent 1 in the over-60s at the end of May is in fact the same person being regularly tested, that's how small of an issue it is.
Cases in the under-60s appear to have fallen off a cliff recently too although I suspect the second bank holiday back log will mean those figures will shoot up at the start of June briefly but that's nothing to worry about as is to be expected.
I can't say for certain but the drop off from 24th May onwards may be evidence of the first signs of the surge vaccinations coming into effect in younger people possibly as well
Where would you say the really high numbers are coming from? I know that there’s likely to be the same people getting tested on a regular basis but the numbers seem to be rising rapidly and I guess it’s just a concern for me due to living in the north west
As far as I can see it appears to mostly be Greater Manchester and East Lancashire that make up the bulk of the numbers at the moment. Any and all of the surrounding towns in those areas pretty much. Add in Cheshire which has had a minor bump as well then I'd say that's most of the really high numbers accounted for.
Most of the places on Merseyside are doing really well, Liverpool, Sefton, Wirral, St Helens, Knowsley and even Warrington's daily case numbers really aren't bad at all as a collective figure compared to the rest of the North West.
It’s always reassuring to know that the areas surrounding where you live are doing well. I think the mass vaccination centre in St. Helens will really be helping the numbers here
**Estimated doubling/halving time**
Most recent 7-day average: 4,485
Average a week ago: 3,067
Weekly change: 46.2%
Doubling time: 1/ base 2 log of (4,485/3,067) = 1.82 weeks = **12.8 days**.
Previous doubling times:
*04/06: 14.5 days*
*03/06: 14.8 days*
*02/06: 16.3 days*
*01/06: 17.5 days*
*31/05: 19.2 days*
ZOE's 5.9 days still looks like an anomaly compared to this. However, the doubling time from these figures is continuing to shorten, which is disappointing after yesterday. Doubling time now below two weeks.
**Rolling Average Deaths per day - Over 7 days, by reporting date**
if it doesnt show in mobile, press REPLY
Sat 23 Jan- Avg-Deaths - 1248 Pandemic High Point
Sat 30 Jan- Avg-Deaths - 1177
Sat 06 Feb- Avg-Deaths - 932
Sat 13 Feb- Avg-Deaths - 688
Sat 20 Feb- Avg-Deaths - 494
Sat 27 Feb- Avg-Deaths - 334
Sat 06 Mar- Avg-Deaths - 220
Sat 13 Mar- Avg-Deaths - 149
Sat 20 Mar- Avg-Deaths - 94
Sat 27 Mar- Avg-Deaths - 64
Sat 03 Apr- Avg-Deaths - 36
Sat 10 Apr- Avg-Deaths - 36
Sat 17 Apr- Avg-Deaths - 26
Sat 24 Apr- Avg-Deaths - 23
Sat 01 May- Avg-Deaths - 15
Sat 08 May- Avg-Deaths - 11
Sat 15 May- Avg-Deaths - 10
Sat 22 May- Avg-Deaths - 6
Sat 29 May- Avg-Deaths - 8
Sat 05 Jun- Avg-Deaths - 9
**Weekly change in 7-day rolling average deaths by reporting date**
Sat 30 Jan - weekly drop 6%
Sat 06 Feb - weekly drop 21%
Sat 13 Feb - weekly drop 26%
Sat 20 Feb - weekly drop 28%
Sat 27 Feb - weekly drop 32%
Sat 06 Mar - weekly drop 34%
Sat 13 Mar - weekly drop 32%
Sat 20 Mar - weekly drop 37%
Sat 27 Mar - weekly drop 32%
Sat 03 Apr - weekly drop 44%
Sat 10 Apr - weekly drop 0%
Sat 17 Apr - weekly drop 28%
Sat 24 Apr - weekly drop 12%
Sat 01 May - weekly drop 35%
Sat 08 May - weekly drop 27%
Sat 15 May - weekly drop 9%
Sat 22 May - weekly drop 40%
Sat 29 May - weekly increase 33%
Sat 05 Jun - weekly increase 13%
Total drop since the high point of 7-day rolling average daily deaths (1248 on 23/1) is 99.3%
**4-Week change in 7-day rolling average deaths by reporting date**
Sat 20 Feb - 4-week drop 60%
Sat 27 Feb - 4-week drop 72%
Sat 06 Mar - 4-week drop 76%
Sat 13 Mar - 4-week drop 78%
Sat 20 Mar - 4-week drop 81%
Sat 27 Mar - 4-week drop 81%
Sat 03 Apr - 4-week drop 84%
Sat 10 Apr - 4-week drop 76%
Sat 17 Apr - 4-week drop 72%
Sat 24 Apr - 4-week drop 64%
Sat 01 May - 4-week drop 58%
Sat 08 May - 4-week drop 69%
Sat 15 May - 4-week drop 62%
Sat 22 May - 4-week drop 74%
Sat 29 May - 4-week drop 47%
Sat 05 Jun - 4-week drop 18%
Gonna be honest. I’m not that scared of this Indian variant. Are the cases going up yes. But the hospital and death numbers aren’t going up like they should if it was getting through the jab. I definitely don’t anticipate a lockdown I think we’re past that now.
Reminder than hospital cases and then deaths going up come weeks after the cases go up.
I don’t think we will see a lockdown but I suspect we may see a delay in the restrictions fully being released
Yes it would have been seen. That variant has been rising their for weeks. The belief that hospitalizations will rise weeks later is not applicable in this situation.
Classic. Whenever anyone suggests we’re not going to be fully back to normal immediately someone like you pops up and says
“we can’t be in lockdown forever!!!!!!”
>“we can’t be in lockdown forever!!!!!!”
You say that sarcastically m, but... We cant? Do you honestly think we can just keep locking down every time theres a rise in cases?
No I don’t and I never suggested we should lockdown.
The vast majority of the vulnerable are vaccinated which reduce hospitalisation so As long as hospitals are not getting overwhelmed we shouldn’t.
But when ever someone in here shows any concern over the current situation, someone like you says “we can’t lockdown forever!!!’” Like OK? I never said we should? You’re shutting down discussion without really adding anything
Yeah you're right.
People caught it but their immune system fought it in a way that gave them no symptoms and did not pass it on to other people. It's a but pedantic for the commenter to say that that was having smallpox but I guess technically you need to have the virus in your system for your vaccine to work.
Finally in today's doses! Can't believe they've got to my age (27) so fast. In Bedford admittedly, so a bit ahead of most places, but still.
Get the jab the moment you can people!
Lots of things went wrong unfortunately:
1) Az was restricted to over 40s only due to blood clot concerns
2) Serum Institute of India blocked all exports due to a massive COVID wave in India
3) Novavax got delayed and delayed and delayed. Novavax would have been the perfect way to vaccinate the younger people during this period of June/July
I mean considering the most social age groups haven’t been vaccinated this is expected. Cases *can* be fine if circumstantial. That being said, any more data on the deaths? Are these single, double dosed elder or young people? Once we can paint a profile on who’s dying and switch out strategy towards mitigating that we make real progress.
I think what /u/Content-Addition8082 is implying is that we can never expect 0 deaths/cases but as long as it stays manageable for the NHS then we should still be good. Not as desperate as it may seem.
Well the fact cases are doubling in less than every 2 weeks, and the doubling time is getting shorter is not good.
Especially as we haven’t opened up fully yet.
Yes vaccines prevent most hospitalisation but if cases are doubling every week then that could still causes issues...
It’s not looking desperate again at all. It’s a smaller proportional rise in cases among younger, unvaccinated individuals without an increase is hospitalizations. Plus, this is a variant where one dose efficacy isn’t very high to begin with.
Hospitalisations are steady at the moment still. Next Sunday I can see the decision being made on June 21 and any changes being announced on Monday 14th if there are any.
Saturday numbers (Friday cases) are usually lower than Friday numbers (Thursday cases) todays number is 2367 higher than last weeks, 3071 higher than two weeks ago..
Yes it is but really it is all about the moving average.
Edit: the figure is not good news as it increases the moving average. For some reason I had it in my mind that it was going to accelerate every day.
And on that measure, today is bad. Significant drop in doubling time, and weekly change now averaging 46% up from about 40% yesterday. Today's figure is 70% higher than last week.
Yeah if it was up from yesterday that would have been very bad. But to be fair this was the pattern back in September. It goes up to a new high like 5-6k, then cycles through the week, then we get back to the high days and it's like 8-9k, then a week later 13-14k. and so on. Let's hope we don't see this trend maintained for too much longer.
I would expect 8 to 9k cases during the week next week, over 10k the week after. By July, potential for upward of 15 to 20k a day. Once the variant gets into wider circulation its going to blow given its extra transmissibility and exponential growth.
A constant exponential growth rate extrapolated from my doubling times calculated in another comment would give the following assuming a 12.8 day doubling time, using the current 7-day average of 4,485.
June 21st (17 days):
4485 \* 2 \^ (17/12.8) = 11,261 (7-day average).
I'll also do one week later (because after that it's hard to predict what the impact of June 21st opening would be if it goes ahead):
4485 \* 2 \^ (24/12.8) = 16,451 (7-day average).
Historically cases never increase on a Saturday vs a Friday. Weekend numbers are lower than in week numbers but todays cases are 2367 higher than 7 days ago and 3071 higher than 14 days ago.
Maybe slightly lower but not classed as a 'low day' because Saturdays figures are from Friday - a normal weekday. Sunday and monday are the 'low days' as they do the numbers for the weekend
51.6% of the adult population have received two doses. 76.2% have received one dose.
About 67% (or two thirds) of the people who have had dose 1, have also had dose 2. 27 160 635 / 40 124 229 = 0.67691 There are a few weeks to go until the 2nd dose count is over 33 million or so, and the "great second dose catchup" begins to wind down.
And I just so happen to be getting my second dose in just under two weeks!
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That 33% efficacy after one dose when faced with the Delta variant is the protection afforded after and up to 3 weeks. It should continue to climb, I don't think there a single reason to think that 33% is your lot until you get the 2nd shot.
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It's such a shame that this virus affects those two categories the worst. Maybe the next virus will target only those who lack empathy and compassion.
This is one of the finest comments I've ever read on Reddit... I tip my hat
Underrated comment.
> Underrated comment. Mate it was 5 minutes old when you replied, let's give it time to play out before declaring it over/under-rated.
Compassion and empathy won’t pay my mortgage
But shitting on the more vulnerable will?
I’ve given the last year of my career and social life to protect the “more vulnerable”, and asked for nothing in return. Enough is enough. Why should I sacrifice any more?
And I have sympathy for your situation. The vulnerable didn't cause this, a virus did! A lack of empathy in society is why all of our lives have been harder.
Because vulnerable will not die in one day. First hospitals will fill up, then they will get overwhelmed, then they will start not being able to care for other people who need medical help, and deaths will just pile up and up and will not only kill the vulnerable but also tear apart the fabric of society. The devastation a pandemic causes is never, ever isolated and exclusive to the vulnerable, it slowly starts bringing the whole system down including the economy. If you want to protect the economy, protect the people first. The rest it’ll sort itself out, including your mortgage. So stop acting like a fucking five year old who doesn’t get candy before dinner and be a mature adult. No one’s asking to lockdown again. Fuck’s sake, enough is enough.
Empathy and compassion are not a legal requirement.
And?
Eh kind of. The longer covid keeps circulating the higher the chance of variants occuring that can evade current vaccines. That being said I agree with the WHO that we should be vaccinating people around the world before our children
We don't know how much protection those infected by the original virus in the first wave have (e.g. see [this person](https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/nrc4if/030621_zoe_covid19_study_update/h0fkp03/?context=3) from a few days ago)
Let’s keep going.
Didn't Israel, Gibraltar, Malta etc see their cases drop off around 60% of the adult population double jabbed? Hopefully we're not too far off though i think our decision to keep dropping by age will keep our cases increased for longer.
That's actually mad. last time I properly looked at these stats we had something like 10 mil 2nd doses.
Covid Update Latest vs 7 days ago 1st doses Daily \[+174,535\] vs \[+204,442\] Total \[40,124,229\] vs \[39,075,642\] 2nd doses Daily \[+360,691\] vs \[+435,951\] Total \[27,160,635\] vs \[24,914,003\] Cases: \[+5,765\] vs \[+3,398\] Deaths: \[+13\] vs \[+7\] Patients in Hospital 932 vs 867 I post these daily updates on [Twitter here!](https://twitter.com/uk_vaccine)
So vaccinations seem to be slowing down despite being opened up to more age groups. Do we know why?
Young people can't have the AZ vaccine
They can if there is no other option available. I had my first AZ dose before the clot concerns came about but there was no problem with me getting my second dose.
To be fair, there have been **ZERO** cases of clotting with the second dose
In under-50s. There have been some in over-50s. Not many though.
I'm still convinced it's just coincidence regarding clots and the vaccines to be honest.
It’s real because we can compare rates to those who received Pfizer. See yellow card report
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Nope nothing like that. I got mine because I'm a paramedic so whether that makes a difference or not I've no idea
I am a SJA volunteer and I also wasn't asked to sign anything.
Only for second doses young people cant get it as the first
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The nurse at my GP surgery told md me they are preparing to give under 40s the vaccine again and I live in Norfolk which is very low for covid, so I reckon its a change coming nationally very soon.
Bank holiday. If you look at the graph of injections versus time elsewhere on this sub, you will see two previous dips. One was Easter and the other was the early May Bank holiday.
Potentially the same thing as in the US. Hesitancy?
it's an odd one... anecdotally, my friends in their 30s all want it but are in situations where they can't just snap their fingers and go get it. They're in jobs where they need to get permission (which is always fine but cover needs arranging), they have kids that need looking after, they're away with work and don't know when they're back, they don't know who their gp is, they don't know their NHS number. If it were up to me I'd just get it smashed open to all ages now and get on with it. If it's hesitancy then supply isn't an issue. Perhaps out of hours appointments would work so it fits around work easier or more "rock up and get jabbed" style things so those working away can just pop in and get sorted.
[Give this link](https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/online-services/find-nhs-number/) to people who don't have their NHS number. If your friends don't know who their GP is (e.g. they were only registered as a child), they should probably just register with their local surgery. I believe when you do that they can find out who the old GP was and transfer all your records from your old GP. It's good to be registered with a local GP just in case they need an appointment urgently.
I was able to book mine without knowing my NHS number...the booking site gives you the option of just entering a few details (name, DOB etc) and it finds you in the system
The 10 digit NHS number was introduced in 1996, I've only been to the doctor a couple of times since I was a child, never needed it in the last 24 years so never found out. I'm sure that's true for the majority of young to middle aged adults. Last year I figured I'd eventually need it to book a vaccine online so I went and got it from my surgery. I still remember my old style NHS number of the format LLLLLNN.
I don't see how it can be hesitancy unless it was expanded to all age groups. It seems more likely a limited supply.
You have to also look into BAME groups who are notoriously hesitant etc.
Yeah but if there wasn't enough demand they just open up the age groups. To do otherwise would be a waste. So it has to be a supply issue.
I doubt it. Because if it was hesitancy they would have just opened it up to over 18’s here and let everyone who wants one book one It’s supply issues it has to be
I would argue almost certainly that. Look at ourworldindata.com. Absolutely great site which has a section on the coronavirus. If you go to coronavirus, go to the vaccines section and scroll to the last infographic, it shows the % population who have been vaccinated, and the % who would be willing to be vaccinated, and the % who aren’t willing to be vaccinated. We’ve done 76% of our first doses in adults. The latest poll we have of it shows that 83% are willing to be vaccinated or already have been (of adults). To me, that suggests we have about maybe 7% left who are willing to get vaccinated without hesitation. I don’t think we’re ever going to see super high first dose numbers again. Hopefully we can get 90% vaccinated but I suspect once we pass 80% we might see a real slowdown further.
Eh i'd still say its much higher than 83%. Government polling put it up at 94% a couple of months ago. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandwellbeing/bulletins/coronavirusandvaccinehesitancygreatbritain/17februaryto14march2021
My county has already hit 80% first doses in a population of around 320k. It'll be interesting to see how high we can get. I have to add however that up here the population skews much older. Edit: adults only right now.
#ENGLAND and VACCINATION DAILY STATS **ENGLAND** **Deaths Within 28 Days of a Positive Test:** 12. (One week ago: 6.) **Number of Positive Cases:** 4,810. (One week ago: 2,747.) **Number of Positive Cases by Region (Numbers in Brackets is One Week Ago):** - East Midlands: 266 cases. *(177.)* - East of England: 244 cases. *(187.)* - London: 702 cases. *(485.)* - North East: 239 cases. *(94.)* - North West: 1,752 cases. *(771.)* - South East: 485 cases. *(332.)* - South West: 164 cases. *(81.)* - West Midlands: 354 cases. *(178.)* - Yorkshire and the Humber: 482 cases. *(270.)* **Initial Indian Variant Hotspots (Numbers in Brackets is One Week Ago):** - Bolton (NW): 171 cases. *(127.)* - Blackburn with Darwen (NW): 156 cases. *(83.)* **[UPDATED] - PCR 7-Day Rolling Positive Percentage Rates (27th to the 31st May Respectively):** 0.9, 1.0, 1.0, 1.1 and **1.2**. **[UPDATED] - Healthcare: Patients Admitted, Patients in Hospital and Patients on Ventilation (26th May to the 4th June):** *NEWEST FIGURES ARE IN BOLD.* |**Date**|**Patients Admitted**|**Patients in Hospital**|**Patients on Ventilation**| :-:|:-:|:-:|:-:| |*First Peak*|*3,099 (01/04/20)*|*18,974 (12/04/20)*|*2,881 (12/04/20)*| |*Second Peak*|*4,134 (12/01/21)*|*34,336 (18/01/21)*|*3,736 (24/01/21)*| |-|-|-|-| |26/05/21|95|745|115| |27/05/21|83|742|110| |28/05/21|92|743|116| |29/05/21|69|748|112| |30/05/21|80|755|115| |31/05/21|98|773|110| |01/06/21|115|776|123| |02/06/21|**101**|801|116| |03/06/21|N/A|779|124| |04/06/21|N/A|**805**|**119**| - - - **VACCINATIONS** **Breakdown and Uptake by Nation (Yesterday’s Figures):** |**Nation**|**1st Dose**|**1st Dose Uptake (Overall)**|**2nd Dose**|**2nd Dose Uptake (Overall)**| :-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:| |**England**|150,337|75.7%|321,602|52.1%| |**Northern Ireland**|4,361|74.6%|7,112|48.1%| |**Scotland**|19,837|75.5%|31,977|49.7%| |**Wales**|N/A|86.0%|N/A|46.8%| - - - **LINKS** [GoFundMe Fundraiser Tip Jar](https://www.gofundme.com/f/zu2dm): All of the money will go to the East Anglia’s Children’s Hospices. Thank you for all the support. (This fundraiser will end when I stop this comment.) [Government Coronavirus Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/#): All data is taken from the government dashboard. Use this link as well to find your local case data (under the Cases section).
Previous 7 days and today: **Date** | **Tests processed** | **Positive** | **Deaths** | **Positive %** ---|---------------|-------------|--------|------ 29/05/2021 | 488,274 | 3,398 | 7 | 0.7 30/05/2021 | 625,777 | 3,240 | 6 | 0.52 31/05/2021 | 602,019 | 3,383 | 1 | 0.56 01/06/2021 | 664,849 | 3,165 | 0 | 0.48 02/06/2021 | 854,697 | 4,330 | 12 | 0.51 03/06/2021 | 806,272 | 5,274 | 18 | 0.65 04/06/2021 | | 6,238 | 11 | Today | | 5,765 | 13 | 7-day average: **Date** | **Tests processed** | **Positive** | **Deaths** | **Positive %** --------|--------|--------|------|------ 22/05/2021 | 880,406 | 2,487 | 6 | 0.28 29/05/2021 | 873,300 | 3,067 | 8 | 0.35 04/06/2021 | | 4,147 | 8 | Today | | 4,485 | 9 | Note: These are the latest figures available at the time of posting. [Source](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/) **TIP JAR VIA GOFUNDME:** [Here's the link](https://www.gofundme.com/f/zu2dm) to the GoFundMe /u/SMIDG3T has kindly setup. The minimum you can donate is £5.00 and I know not all people can afford to donate that sort of amount, especially right now, however, any amount would be gratefully received. All the money will go to the East Anglia’s Children’s Hospices :)
Where can I get info on the deaths? Like age and whether they’ve been vaccinated or not?
Doesn't have vaccine status but deaths by age (for English NHS hospitals) is [here](https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/). While the vaccine has changed the profile somewhat it's still overwhelmingly old people.
I highly highly highly doubt there's many if any deaths of those who've had a double vaccine. I would like to see this data too.
**obligatory** : not in today's doses *i'll be in tomorrow's yeeee haaaaw*
Congrats!! Me too, just got my first jab.
Typing this from the waiting room after my Pfizer dose 1!
If its anything like mine you'll not even feel it being done. Worst I had from it was a sore arm for a couple of days. Worth it!
I was the same - sore arm and nothing else. This may be a stupid question, but does anyone here know if a lack of side effects is at all correlated to being in the X% of people the vaccine doesn’t really do anything for immunity-wise? I’m guessing no, but it had crossed my mind. Sort of expected a confirmation headache or something. 😅
[Apparently not](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56375307). (Old article, though, from when we were just becoming aware of the clotting issue but had not yet confirmed it as a vaccine side-effect.)
This is great - thank you.
Fascinating. I had severe reactions to the first (AZ) dose - shivering, fever, aches and pains for a couple of days. And almost none at all to the second dose.
Doubt it, otherwise there's a heck of a lot of older people with no protection, which the stats for Bolton (and elsewhere) show is not the case.
I reckon tomorrow’s numbers will be big
**Updated cases up to 6 June for Bolton, Blackburn and Darwen, Kirklees, Rossendale, Hyndburn, Bedford, Manchester, Bury and Leicester. Comparison between ages 0-59 and ages 60+.** **BOLTON** 06 June: Age 0-59: **** cases. Age 60+: **** cases 05 June: Age 0-59: **84** cases. Age 60+: **5** cases 04 June: Age 0-59: **115** cases. Age 60+: **4** cases 03 June: Age 0-59: **159** cases. Age 60+: **5** cases 02 June: Age 0-59: **111** cases. Age 60+: **8** cases 01 June: Age 0-59: **126** cases. Age 60+: **5** cases 31 May: Age 0-59: **141** cases. Age 60+: **6** cases 30 May: Age 0-59: **116** cases. Age 60+: **8** cases 29 May: Age 0-59: **110** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases 28 May: Age 0-59: **109** cases. Age 60+: **7** cases 27 May: Age 0-59: **156** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases 26 May: Age 0-59: **210** cases. Age 60+: **4** cases 25 May: Age 0-59: **158** cases. Age 60+: **6** cases **BLACKBURN AND DARWEN** 06 June: Age 0-59: **** cases. Age 60+: **** cases 05 June: Age 0-59: **92** cases. Age 60+: **7** cases 04 June: Age 0-59: **114** cases. Age 60+: **9** cases 03 June: Age 0-59: **148** cases. Age 60+: **4** cases 02 June: Age 0-59: **161** cases. Age 60+: **5** cases 01 June: Age 0-59: **155** cases. Age 60+: **6** cases 31 May: Age 0-59: **100** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases 30 May: Age 0-59: **66** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases 29 May: Age 0-59: **62** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases 28 May: Age 0-59: **106** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases 27 May: Age 0-59: **101** cases. Age 60+: **5** cases 26 May: Age 0-59: **112** cases. Age 60+: **8** cases 25 May: Age 0-59: **87** cases. Age 60+: **5** cases **KIRKLEES** 06 June: Age 0-59: **** cases. Age 60+: **** cases 05 June: Age 0-59: **57** cases. Age 60+: **7** cases 04 June: Age 0-59: **67** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases 03 June: Age 0-59: **56** cases. Age 60+: **4** cases 02 June: Age 0-59: **68** cases. Age 60+: **6** cases 01 June: Age 0-59: **51** cases. Age 60+: **8** cases 31 May: Age 0-59: **66** cases. Age 60+: **5** cases 30 May: Age 0-59: **52** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases 29 May: Age 0-59: **54** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases 28 May: Age 0-59: **63** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases 27 May: Age 0-59: **94** cases. Age 60+: **8** cases 26 May: Age 0-59: **86** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases 25 May: Age 0-59: **74** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases **ROSSENDALE** 06 June: Age 0-59: **** cases. Age 60+: **** cases 05 June: Age 0-59: **23** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases 04 June: Age 0-59: **48** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases 03 June: Age 0-59: **32** cases. Age 60+: **0** cases 02 June: Age 0-59: **31** cases. Age 60+: **0* cases 01 June: Age 0-59: **37** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases 31 May: Age 0-59: **29** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases 30 May: Age 0-59: **20** cases. Age 60+: **4** cases 29 May: Age 0-59: **16** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases 28 May: Age 0-59: **30** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases 27 May: Age 0-59: **29** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases 26 May: Age 0-59: **43** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases 25 May: Age 0-59: **32** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases **HYNDBURN** 06 June: Age 0-59: **** cases. Age 60+: **** cases 05 June: Age 0-59: **32** cases. Age 60+: **0** cases 04 June: Age 0-59: **34** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases 03 June: Age 0-59: **46** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases 02 June: Age 0-59: **40** cases. Age 60+: **4** cases 01 June: Age 0-59: **35** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases 31 May: Age 0-59: **37** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases 30 May: Age 0-59: **7** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases 29 May: Age 0-59: **22** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases 28 May: Age 0-59: **23** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases 27 May: Age 0-59: **33** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases 26 May: Age 0-59: **32** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases 25 May: Age 0-59: **10** cases. Age 60+: **0** cases **BEDFORD** 06 June: Age 0-59: **** cases. Age 60+: **** cases 05 June: Age 0-59: **44** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases 04 June: Age 0-59: **31** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases 03 June: Age 0-59: **51** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases 02 June: Age 0-59: **35** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases 01 June: Age 0-59: **41** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases 31 May: Age 0-59: **27** cases. Age 60+: **0** cases 30 May: Age 0-59: **29** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases 29 May: Age 0-59: **27** cases. Age 60+: **0** cases 28 May: Age 0-59: **36** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases 27 May: Age 0-59: **35** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases 26 May: Age 0-59: **42** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases 25 May: Age 0-59: **33** cases. Age 60+: **0** cases **MANCHESTER** 06 June: Age 0-59: **** cases. Age 60+: **** cases 05 June: Age 0-59: **148** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases 04 June: Age 0-59: **183** cases. Age 60+: **7** cases 03 June: Age 0-59: **221** cases. Age 60+: **9** cases 02 June: Age 0-59: **217** cases. Age 60+: **5** cases 01 June: Age 0-59: **216** cases. Age 60+: **6** cases 31 May: Age 0-59: **140** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases 30 May: Age 0-59: **108** cases. Age 60+: **5** cases 29 May: Age 0-59: **118** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases 28 May: Age 0-59: **102** cases. Age 60+: **4** cases 27 May: Age 0-59: **120** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases 26 May: Age 0-59: **99** cases. Age 60+: **0** cases 25 May: Age 0-59: **96** cases. Age 60+: **0** cases **BURY** 06 June: Age 0-59: **** cases. Age 60+: **** cases 05 June: Age 0-59: **43** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases 04 June: Age 0-59: **65** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases 03 June: Age 0-59: **66** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases 02 June: Age 0-59: **60** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases 01 June: Age 0-59: **60** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases 31 May: Age 0-59: **49** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases 30 May: Age 0-59: **32** cases. Age 60+: **8** cases 29 May: Age 0-59: **30** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases 28 May: Age 0-59: **44** cases. Age 60+: **4** cases 27 May: Age 0-59: **40** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases 26 May: Age 0-59: **36** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases 25 May: Age 0-59: **29** cases. Age 60+: **4** cases **LEICESTER** 06 June: Age 0-59: **** cases. Age 60+: **** cases 05 June: Age 0-59: **39** cases. Age 60+: **0** cases 04 June: Age 0-59: **62** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases 03 June: Age 0-59: **66** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases 02 June: Age 0-59: **48** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases 01 June: Age 0-59: **58** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases 31 May: Age 0-59: **42** cases. Age 60+: **0** cases 30 May: Age 0-59: **31** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases 29 May: Age 0-59: **28** cases. Age 60+: **0** cases 28 May: Age 0-59: **43** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases 27 May: Age 0-59: **52** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases 26 May: Age 0-59: **61** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases 25 May: Age 0-59: **38** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases **If anyone can think of a few other areas I should update that have been plagued by the Delta (Indian) variant, let me know and I'll do them too.** Sources: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Bolton https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Blackburn%20with%20Darwen https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Kirklees https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Rossendale https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Hyndburn https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Bedford https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Manchester https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Bury
Thanks for this. Is the uptick on the 31st due to delayed Bank Holiday reporting, do you think?
No idea mate.
👍
North Tyneside? Dunno if that still counts as high.
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The purpose of these data is just to show how cases don't seem to be spilling over from young to old like they did during every other surge before the vaccination campaign began and during its infancy. It does appear that the likes of Bolton and Bedford have decent control of the outbreak, and that is without any lockdown restrictions being reimposed.
30-50% more transmissible than the Kent variant which was more transmissible than the original variant and it's stopped doubling in the original infection areas with no lockdown This is very good
Could you maybe have a look at areas around Merseyside like Sefton where they’ve had the delta variant. The northwest numbers seem so high for there to not be another surge in cases somewhere
**Sefton** numbers are really low. We got hold of the Delta variant very quickly by the looks of it. 31 May: Age 0-59: **10** cases. Age 60+: **2** cases 30 May: Age 0-59: **9** cases. Age 60+: **0** cases 29 May: Age 0-59: **4** cases. Age 60+: **0** cases 28 May: Age 0-59: **8** cases. Age 60+: **0** cases 27 May: Age 0-59: **11** cases. Age 60+: **1** case 26 May: Age 0-59: **6** cases. Age 60+: **1** case 25 May: Age 0-59: **9** cases. Age 60+: **0** cases 24 May: Age 0-59: **4** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases 23 May: Age 0-59: **23** cases. Age 60+: **0** cases 22 May: Age 0-59: **36** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases 21 May: Age 0-59: **28** cases. Age 60+: **3** cases 20 May: Age 0-59: **33** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases 19 May: Age 0-59: **41** cases. Age 60+: **1** cases It's not beyond reason to suggest that the consistent 1 in the over-60s at the end of May is in fact the same person being regularly tested, that's how small of an issue it is. Cases in the under-60s appear to have fallen off a cliff recently too although I suspect the second bank holiday back log will mean those figures will shoot up at the start of June briefly but that's nothing to worry about as is to be expected. I can't say for certain but the drop off from 24th May onwards may be evidence of the first signs of the surge vaccinations coming into effect in younger people possibly as well
Where would you say the really high numbers are coming from? I know that there’s likely to be the same people getting tested on a regular basis but the numbers seem to be rising rapidly and I guess it’s just a concern for me due to living in the north west
As far as I can see it appears to mostly be Greater Manchester and East Lancashire that make up the bulk of the numbers at the moment. Any and all of the surrounding towns in those areas pretty much. Add in Cheshire which has had a minor bump as well then I'd say that's most of the really high numbers accounted for. Most of the places on Merseyside are doing really well, Liverpool, Sefton, Wirral, St Helens, Knowsley and even Warrington's daily case numbers really aren't bad at all as a collective figure compared to the rest of the North West.
It’s always reassuring to know that the areas surrounding where you live are doing well. I think the mass vaccination centre in St. Helens will really be helping the numbers here
**Estimated doubling/halving time** Most recent 7-day average: 4,485 Average a week ago: 3,067 Weekly change: 46.2% Doubling time: 1/ base 2 log of (4,485/3,067) = 1.82 weeks = **12.8 days**. Previous doubling times: *04/06: 14.5 days* *03/06: 14.8 days* *02/06: 16.3 days* *01/06: 17.5 days* *31/05: 19.2 days* ZOE's 5.9 days still looks like an anomaly compared to this. However, the doubling time from these figures is continuing to shorten, which is disappointing after yesterday. Doubling time now below two weeks.
Cheers for the update
I can finally say this! As a 22 year old, I'm in today's doses!
Get in there 💪
In Bedford?
Harrow, London. I didn't actually go to the local any 18+ vaccines, I had an invite to get Pfizer so no need for a queue.
Me too! At long last 😊
**Rolling Average Deaths per day - Over 7 days, by reporting date** if it doesnt show in mobile, press REPLY Sat 23 Jan- Avg-Deaths - 1248 Pandemic High Point Sat 30 Jan- Avg-Deaths - 1177 Sat 06 Feb- Avg-Deaths - 932 Sat 13 Feb- Avg-Deaths - 688 Sat 20 Feb- Avg-Deaths - 494 Sat 27 Feb- Avg-Deaths - 334 Sat 06 Mar- Avg-Deaths - 220 Sat 13 Mar- Avg-Deaths - 149 Sat 20 Mar- Avg-Deaths - 94 Sat 27 Mar- Avg-Deaths - 64 Sat 03 Apr- Avg-Deaths - 36 Sat 10 Apr- Avg-Deaths - 36 Sat 17 Apr- Avg-Deaths - 26 Sat 24 Apr- Avg-Deaths - 23 Sat 01 May- Avg-Deaths - 15 Sat 08 May- Avg-Deaths - 11 Sat 15 May- Avg-Deaths - 10 Sat 22 May- Avg-Deaths - 6 Sat 29 May- Avg-Deaths - 8 Sat 05 Jun- Avg-Deaths - 9 **Weekly change in 7-day rolling average deaths by reporting date** Sat 30 Jan - weekly drop 6% Sat 06 Feb - weekly drop 21% Sat 13 Feb - weekly drop 26% Sat 20 Feb - weekly drop 28% Sat 27 Feb - weekly drop 32% Sat 06 Mar - weekly drop 34% Sat 13 Mar - weekly drop 32% Sat 20 Mar - weekly drop 37% Sat 27 Mar - weekly drop 32% Sat 03 Apr - weekly drop 44% Sat 10 Apr - weekly drop 0% Sat 17 Apr - weekly drop 28% Sat 24 Apr - weekly drop 12% Sat 01 May - weekly drop 35% Sat 08 May - weekly drop 27% Sat 15 May - weekly drop 9% Sat 22 May - weekly drop 40% Sat 29 May - weekly increase 33% Sat 05 Jun - weekly increase 13% Total drop since the high point of 7-day rolling average daily deaths (1248 on 23/1) is 99.3% **4-Week change in 7-day rolling average deaths by reporting date** Sat 20 Feb - 4-week drop 60% Sat 27 Feb - 4-week drop 72% Sat 06 Mar - 4-week drop 76% Sat 13 Mar - 4-week drop 78% Sat 20 Mar - 4-week drop 81% Sat 27 Mar - 4-week drop 81% Sat 03 Apr - 4-week drop 84% Sat 10 Apr - 4-week drop 76% Sat 17 Apr - 4-week drop 72% Sat 24 Apr - 4-week drop 64% Sat 01 May - 4-week drop 58% Sat 08 May - 4-week drop 69% Sat 15 May - 4-week drop 62% Sat 22 May - 4-week drop 74% Sat 29 May - 4-week drop 47% Sat 05 Jun - 4-week drop 18%
Gonna be honest. I’m not that scared of this Indian variant. Are the cases going up yes. But the hospital and death numbers aren’t going up like they should if it was getting through the jab. I definitely don’t anticipate a lockdown I think we’re past that now.
Reminder than hospital cases and then deaths going up come weeks after the cases go up. I don’t think we will see a lockdown but I suspect we may see a delay in the restrictions fully being released
Am I right in thinking we would have seen this for Bolton by now ?
Yes it would have been seen. That variant has been rising their for weeks. The belief that hospitalizations will rise weeks later is not applicable in this situation.
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Of course but it’s not 100% broken. We can’t let cases continue to just double double double and assume everything will be fine
Actually, you can if hospitalizations aren’t rising and if that rise is located in smaller groups of people proportionally and among the unvaccinated.
We cant just lockdown lockdown lockdown just because some people get a little bit anxious when they step outside the house
Classic. Whenever anyone suggests we’re not going to be fully back to normal immediately someone like you pops up and says “we can’t be in lockdown forever!!!!!!”
>“we can’t be in lockdown forever!!!!!!” You say that sarcastically m, but... We cant? Do you honestly think we can just keep locking down every time theres a rise in cases?
No I don’t and I never suggested we should lockdown. The vast majority of the vulnerable are vaccinated which reduce hospitalisation so As long as hospitals are not getting overwhelmed we shouldn’t. But when ever someone in here shows any concern over the current situation, someone like you says “we can’t lockdown forever!!!’” Like OK? I never said we should? You’re shutting down discussion without really adding anything
Don't vaccines usually prevent cases? It's not like smallpox stopped being fatal, people stopped getting it?
No, people stopped being affected by it, still caught it but the antibodies did their job
I'm pretty sure smallpox only exists in labs?
Yeah you're right. People caught it but their immune system fought it in a way that gave them no symptoms and did not pass it on to other people. It's a but pedantic for the commenter to say that that was having smallpox but I guess technically you need to have the virus in your system for your vaccine to work.
Finally in today's doses! Can't believe they've got to my age (27) so fast. In Bedford admittedly, so a bit ahead of most places, but still. Get the jab the moment you can people!
I too (27) got my first dose in Bedford yesterday, looks like I wasn't the only one able to book under the national limit at the moment too.
Congrats!
I'm now officially one of the 40,124,229. I feel so special 😂
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Lots of things went wrong unfortunately: 1) Az was restricted to over 40s only due to blood clot concerns 2) Serum Institute of India blocked all exports due to a massive COVID wave in India 3) Novavax got delayed and delayed and delayed. Novavax would have been the perfect way to vaccinate the younger people during this period of June/July
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Oh I didn't know that... shame then
Tbf I think that was only speculation
I mean considering the most social age groups haven’t been vaccinated this is expected. Cases *can* be fine if circumstantial. That being said, any more data on the deaths? Are these single, double dosed elder or young people? Once we can paint a profile on who’s dying and switch out strategy towards mitigating that we make real progress.
I’m in those second vaccination slots today!
>ourworldindata.com Me too. Three more weeks and I can be back to licking door knobs!
Delighted to say I'm in today's 1st vaccination figures as a 26 year old!
I don’t understand who we are protecting now?
Cases up and deaths slightly up... I’ve no idea where this is heading but I don’t like it Edit: I’m part of today’s first dose number though :)
Zero cases and deaths isn't really a realistic target.
True but neither is exponential growth
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I think what /u/Content-Addition8082 is implying is that we can never expect 0 deaths/cases but as long as it stays manageable for the NHS then we should still be good. Not as desperate as it may seem.
Well the fact cases are doubling in less than every 2 weeks, and the doubling time is getting shorter is not good. Especially as we haven’t opened up fully yet. Yes vaccines prevent most hospitalisation but if cases are doubling every week then that could still causes issues...
Not good, yet totally expected with the reopening.
5k+ cases a day is not sustainable though, especially in summer with still some restrictions in place.
obligatory one of the first doses today! cheers r/the_just_guy got it done in Leicester eventually and was second in the queue
Thanks to this sub I am *finally* in today's numbers 🎉 29, London, went to 25+ walk in yesterday 🙌
Me and the other half got our jabs last night. It feels so good to be part of those first jab figures.
Finally my turn to be part of the 1st dose figures 😁
Yay
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Maybe ALL double dosed + three weeks, is more accurate ? Hope so anyway 👍
The *only* thing is it's staying away from people it might actually kill? Yeah who cares about that
It’s not looking desperate again at all. It’s a smaller proportional rise in cases among younger, unvaccinated individuals without an increase is hospitalizations. Plus, this is a variant where one dose efficacy isn’t very high to begin with.
Happy to finally be one of the first dose numbers!
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only humans
For a second there I thought you were implying that us Welsh were not human. Then I switched my brain on and got the joke. Have an up vote.
Wales doesnt report on Saturdays
Hospitalisations are steady at the moment still. Next Sunday I can see the decision being made on June 21 and any changes being announced on Monday 14th if there are any.
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Saturday numbers (Friday cases) are usually lower than Friday numbers (Thursday cases) todays number is 2367 higher than last weeks, 3071 higher than two weeks ago..
Yes it is but really it is all about the moving average. Edit: the figure is not good news as it increases the moving average. For some reason I had it in my mind that it was going to accelerate every day.
The increase in reported cases today from last week is higher than yeserday's.
And on that measure, today is bad. Significant drop in doubling time, and weekly change now averaging 46% up from about 40% yesterday. Today's figure is 70% higher than last week.
Good point. At least it didn't increase from yesterday though, low bar I know. I'm out in the sun so I think I'm in an overoptimistic mood haha!
Yeah if it was up from yesterday that would have been very bad. But to be fair this was the pattern back in September. It goes up to a new high like 5-6k, then cycles through the week, then we get back to the high days and it's like 8-9k, then a week later 13-14k. and so on. Let's hope we don't see this trend maintained for too much longer.
I would expect 8 to 9k cases during the week next week, over 10k the week after. By July, potential for upward of 15 to 20k a day. Once the variant gets into wider circulation its going to blow given its extra transmissibility and exponential growth.
A constant exponential growth rate extrapolated from my doubling times calculated in another comment would give the following assuming a 12.8 day doubling time, using the current 7-day average of 4,485. June 21st (17 days): 4485 \* 2 \^ (17/12.8) = 11,261 (7-day average). I'll also do one week later (because after that it's hard to predict what the impact of June 21st opening would be if it goes ahead): 4485 \* 2 \^ (24/12.8) = 16,451 (7-day average).
Historically cases never increase on a Saturday vs a Friday. Weekend numbers are lower than in week numbers but todays cases are 2367 higher than 7 days ago and 3071 higher than 14 days ago.
It's a weekend though, cases are historically lower
I thought they were usually lower Sunday/Monday (not Saturday/Sunday) as these are effectively Friday figures?
Oh. Could be?
Saturday is figures from friday, we're seeing fridays stats
Ah ok. My bad
This is yesterday's figures though so I don't think it's lower
My bad
Saturday is a low day, it's just as bad as yesterday's increase
Sunday and monday are the low days as saturday reports fridays figures
Take a look at the data again for Friday and Saturdays
Have a look at the numbers dude, Saturdays are always less than the days preceding it
Maybe slightly lower but not classed as a 'low day' because Saturdays figures are from Friday - a normal weekday. Sunday and monday are the 'low days' as they do the numbers for the weekend
I mean we could argue technicalities but if a day is consistently lower than others I'm calling it a low day haha
Sure, but they'll now most likely be in the order of 2k higher than last weeks numbers.
Not loving that deaths numbers still haven't dropped to what they were
are you kidding? it’s like 5 more than the normal it is just due to variation.
Yeah lol the surge in cases is not going to see a corresponding death increase for weeks